JP7319838B2 - Power management device and power management method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a power management device and a power management method.

A virtual power plant (VPP) is an energy resource on the consumer side, a power generation facility directly connected to the power grid, or a power storage facility owned by the owner or a third party that controls the energy resource equivalent to a power plant. In recent years, various studies have been conducted (for example, Patent Document 1). In order to control resources, first, a reference value (baseline) of the receiving point power of the consumer when control is not performed is required. Until now, the average value for four days with high demand among the past five days, such as the High4OF5 method, was used (Non-Patent Document 1). At home, the fluctuation range due to changes in the weather may be greater than the average, and there were cases where there were issues with the reference value.

JP 2019-68512 A

"Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Home Information News Releases 'Guidelines for Negawatt Transactions' have been revised -Promoting the development of an environment for smart power saving-", [online], September 1, 2016, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, [Ordinance Searched June 20, 2016], Internet <URL: https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2016/09/20160901003/20160901003.html>, <URL: https://www.meti. go.jp/press/2016/09/20160901003/20160901003-1.pdf>

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to provide a power management device and a power management method that can reduce the error between a reference value and an actual value.

In order to solve the above problems, one aspect of the present invention is a device for managing power demand in one or more customer facilities in response to a request related to a change in power demand, comprising: a consumption average value acquiring unit for acquiring past average consumption values; a weather forecast value acquiring unit for acquiring weather forecast values for the current day corresponding to the location of each consumer facility; A predicted power generation value calculation unit that calculates a predicted power generation value of a consumer facility, and a baseline calculator that calculates a baseline, which is a reference value related to changes in the demand for power, based on the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value. wherein the average consumption value acquisition unit acquires the past average consumption value of each of the customer facilities located in each predetermined area, and the weather forecast value acquisition unit acquires the weather forecast value for each area The weather forecast value for the day is obtained, the power generation forecast value calculation unit calculates the power generation forecast value per unit of each of the customer facilities for the day for each area based on the weather forecast value, and the baseline calculation unit and a power management device that groups each of the areas into a plurality of groups based on the predicted power generation value per unit for each of the areas, and calculates the baseline for each of the groups.

Moreover, one aspect of the present invention further includes a power management unit that manages power demand in each of the consumer facilities according to the request based on the baseline.

Further, in one aspect of the present invention, at least one of each of the customer facilities has a power storage facility, and the power management unit commands charging and discharging of the power storage facility, so that the baseline is used as a reference. It manages the power demand in each of the consumer facilities in response to a request.

Further, one aspect of the present invention is a method for managing power demand in one or more consumer facilities in response to a request related to a change in power demand, comprising: obtaining a weather forecast value for the current day corresponding to the location of each customer facility; calculating a power generation forecast value for each customer facility for the current day based on the weather forecast value; calculating a baseline, which is a reference value relating to changes in demand for electric power, based on the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value, and storing the baseline in a predetermined storage unit , and obtaining the average consumption value. the step of obtaining the past average consumption value of each of the customer facilities located in the area for each predetermined area, and the step of obtaining the weather forecast value includes obtaining the weather forecast for the current day for each of the areas and the step of calculating the predicted power generation value includes calculating the predicted power generation value per unit of each of the customer facilities on the day for each of the areas based on the weather forecast value, the base The step of calculating a line and storing it in a predetermined storage unit includes grouping each of the areas into a plurality of groups based on the predicted power generation value per unit for each of the areas, and calculating the baseline for each of the groups. and storing it in a predetermined storage unit .

According to each aspect of the present invention, it is possible to reduce the error between the reference value (baseline) and the actual value.

1 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration example of a power management system according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of a power management device 10 and a consumer facility 20 shown in FIG. 1; FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing an operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; 3 is a diagram for explaining an operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration example of a power management system according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; 3 is a diagram for explaining another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 2; FIG.

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. In each figure, the same reference numerals are used for the same or corresponding configurations, and the description thereof will be omitted as appropriate. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration example of a power management system according to one embodiment of the present invention. A power management system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a power management device 10 and one or more consumer facilities 20 (only one consumer facility 20 is shown in FIG. 1). At least a part of one or more consumer facilities 20 has a storage battery 21 (power storage equipment).

The power management apparatus 10 bundles a plurality of consumers (a plurality of consumer facilities 20) to reduce or increase demand (collectively referred to as demand change) by DR (Demand Response), VPP (Virtual Power Plant), or the like. It is one or a plurality of computers such as a server operated by a business operator (resource aggregator) that deals with a parent aggregator (aggregation coordinator) such as an electric utility company. In other words, the power management device 10 is a device that manages power demand in one or a plurality of consumer facilities 20 in response to requests related to changes in power demand, such as DR and VPP.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of the power management device 10 and the consumer facility 20 shown in FIG. In the configuration example shown in FIG. 2 , the consumer facility 20 includes a communication unit 24 , a control device 22 , a distribution board 23 , a storage battery 21 , a power generation facility 25 , a power load facility 26 and a power meter 28 .

The communication unit 24 transmits and receives predetermined information to and from the power management device 10 via the communication line 40 . The communication line 40 includes a communication line 43 , a network 41 such as the Internet, and a communication line 42 .

The control device 22 controls electrical equipment (the power generation equipment 25, the storage battery 21, the power load equipment 26, the communication unit 24, etc.) in the consumer facility 20. FIG. In addition, the control device 22 can input power demand information measured by the power meter 28 and use the input power demand information for various controls.

In this embodiment, of the storage battery 21, the power generation equipment 25, and the power load equipment 26 provided in the customer facility 20, those that can be managed by the power management apparatus 10 via the control device 22, for example, are referred to as power equipment. Here, “manageable” means that the power consumption, generated power, and charge/discharge power can be controlled based on a predetermined command output by the power management device 10, or at least indicates the power consumption, generated power, and charge/discharge power. It means that the power management apparatus 10 can acquire the information. Acquisition of information indicating power consumption, generated power, and charge/discharge power may be performed for each power facility, or may be obtained for each of a plurality of power facilities. In addition, in this embodiment, the charging power and discharging power of the storage battery 21 are controlled by the power management device 10 . In addition, part or all of the power generation equipment 25 may be able to control the power generated by the power management device 10 . Further, the power consumption of some or all of the power load facilities 26 may be controlled by the power management device 10 .

Further, in this embodiment, the power consumption or charging power of the power equipment is referred to as the input power of the power equipment, and the generated power or the discharge power of the power equipment is referred to as the output power of the power equipment. In addition, the power demand and power generation of the power equipment includes power consumption, power charging, power generation, and power discharge by the power equipment.

The control device 22, in accordance with the instructions received from the power management device 10, controls the charge/discharge power, generated power, power consumption, etc. of the power equipment provided in the consumer facility 20, and indicates the consumed power, generated power, and charge/discharge power. or collect information. At that time, the control device 22 controls the charge/discharge power of the storage battery 21 according to the charge/discharge command received from the power management device 10 .

The control device 22 collects power-related information in the consumer facility 20, for example, as follows. The control device 22 can collect information on power demand measured by the power meter 28 . In addition, the control device 22 can collect the power generated by the power generation equipment 25, the remaining capacity of the storage battery 21 (accumulated power; accumulated power), the charge/discharge power, the load power (power consumption) by the power load equipment 26, and the like. can. The control device 22 also transmits collected information such as generated power, charge/discharge power, demand power, and generated power from the communication unit 24 at predetermined time intervals or in response to a request from the power management device 10, for example. Send to device 10 .

The distribution board 23 distributes and supplies the power supplied from the lead-in line 71 via the power meter 28 to the storage battery 21, the power load equipment 26 and the like via the wiring 27 . The service line 71 is a component of the distribution system of the general power transmission and distribution business operator. In addition, the distribution board 23 can output the power output from the power generation equipment 25 and the like to the service line 71 via the power meter 28 for reverse power flow.

The storage battery 21 is equipment that accumulates power input for charging, and that discharges and outputs the accumulated power. The storage battery 21 includes, for example, a secondary battery and an inverter. The storage battery 21 stores (charges) power and outputs (discharges) the stored power. The inverter converts the power for charging the secondary battery from alternating current to direct current, and converts the power output from the secondary battery by discharging from direct current to alternating current. In other words, the inverter bi-directionally converts power input and output by the secondary battery. The charge/discharge power of the storage battery 21 is controlled by the control device 22 .

The storage battery 21 can be charged by inputting power from a commercial power source supplied via the distribution board 23 . Moreover, the storage battery 21 can be charged by inputting electric power generated by the power generation equipment 25 . Also, the storage battery 21 can supply the accumulated electric power as a power source for the power load equipment 26 . In addition, the storage battery 21 can reverse power flow by outputting the accumulated power from the distribution board 23 to the service line 71 via the power meter 28 .

The power generation facility 25 is, for example, a facility that generates power by receiving sunlight. The power generation equipment 25 includes, for example, a solar cell and a PCS (Power Conditioning System). The power generation equipment 25 receives sunlight to generate power, converts the power obtained by the power generation into alternating current using the PCS, and outputs the alternating current.

Electric power generated by the power generation equipment 25 can be supplied as a power source for the power load equipment 26 . Moreover, the power generated by the power generation equipment 25 can be charged in the storage battery 21 . In addition, the power generated by the power generation equipment 25 can be reversely flowed by outputting the power from the distribution board 23 to the service line 71 via the power meter 28 . Note that the power generation equipment 25 and the storage battery 21 may be configured by integrating a power conversion circuit and the like.

The power load facility 26 collectively represents one or more predetermined devices and facilities that consume power for their own operation in the consumer facility 20 . It should be noted that the types, numbers, and the like of devices, facilities, and the like serving as loads provided in each consumer facility 20 may differ from each other. The power load facility 26 can operate by inputting commercial power supplied from the distribution board 23 . Also, the power load facility 26 can operate by inputting power generated by the power generation facility 25 . Also, the power load equipment 26 can operate by inputting power output from the storage battery 21 . The electric power load facility 26 includes a load whose power consumption can be controlled by the control device 22 or the like, such as a hot water storage type water heater, a thermal storage air conditioner, a clothes dryer, a tableware dryer, a storage battery (a load to be charged), or the like. You can

The power meter 28 measures demand power (forward flow power and reverse flow power). In the consumer facility 20, power supplied from the service line 71 to the distribution board 23 is demand power (forward power flow power). On the other hand, the power output from the storage battery 21 and the power generation equipment 25 and supplied to the service line 71 from the distribution board 23 via the power meter 28 is demand power (reverse flow power). The power meter 28 is, for example, a smart meter, and transmits information of the power demand (and each power amount) measured in predetermined measurement units (for example, every 30 minutes) to the power management apparatus 10 or a host via the network 41 or the like. Send to control system 50 .

Note that the consumer facility 20 may include either one of the storage battery 21 and the power generation facility 25 . Moreover, some consumer facilities 20 may be provided with neither the storage battery 21 nor the power generation equipment 25 . Moreover, the power generation equipment 25 is not limited to one using a solar battery, and may be a power generation device that generates power using other renewable energy such as wind power generation, geothermal power generation, or a combination thereof.

Moreover, the storage battery 21 and the power generation equipment 25 provided in the consumer facility 20 are interconnected with a commercial power source. As a result, the consumer facility 20 including the storage battery 21 or the power generation equipment 25 reversely flows the power generated and output by the power generation equipment 25 or the power output by the storage battery 21 by discharging to the power system (distribution network) of the commercial power supply. can be sold through the power grid.

On the other hand, power management device 10 includes communication unit 11 , control device 12 , and storage unit 13 . The control device 12 can be composed of, for example, a combination of hardware such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a main memory device, an auxiliary memory device, an input/output device, and a predetermined program executed by the CPU. The control device 12 includes a power management unit 121, an average consumption value acquisition unit 122, a weather prediction value acquisition unit 123, and a power generation prediction value calculation unit 124 as functional components configured by combining hardware and software such as programs. , and a baseline calculator 125 .

In the present embodiment, the power management apparatus 10 manages power demand and power generation in each customer facility 20 and customer facility 30 in correspondence with, for example, the planned value simultaneous equalization system. That is, the operator of the power management apparatus 10 formulates a demand plan and a power generation plan for each consumer facility 20 and the consumer facility 30 as a whole for each predetermined measurement unit time (for example, 30 minutes), Submit plans and power generation plans to general power transmission and distribution utilities. After that, if the demand and power generation results in each customer facility 20 and the overall customer facility 30 have an excess or deficiency (imbalance) with respect to the demand plan and the power generation plan, the electric power company and the general power transmission and distribution company settlement corresponding to the imbalance (imbalance settlement) is performed between

Note that, in the present embodiment, the average value of the power demand and power generation prediction values of the plurality of power facilities of the plurality of consumer facilities 20 and the consumer facilities 30 in the measurement unit time is calculated as the power demand of the plurality of power facilities. is called the reference value for power generation. Also, in the present embodiment, this reference value corresponds to, for example, the baseline in the planned value simultaneous same amount system. The baseline is the amount of power consumption assumed when there is no DR request, and can be obtained from the power generation plan and the demand plan under the plan value simultaneous equality system. Alternatively, in the present embodiment, the reference value may be a value predicted based on the actual value of the generated power and the actual value of the demand plan.

In addition, the power management apparatus 10 receives a request for power adjustment (request for power adjustment) received via the communication line 60 from a host control system 50 (computer such as a server) operated by an electric power company (aggregation coordinator), or for example, Based on the conditions determined by the own system, the power demand and power generation of a plurality of power facilities in a plurality of consumer facilities 20 are changed by a predetermined amount in a predetermined adjustment time period (adjustment time) with reference to a reference value (baseline). .

In this embodiment, the power adjustment request includes a demand reduction request and a demand increase request for the entire plurality of consumer facilities 20 managed by the power management apparatus 10 . Also, the demand reduction request includes a request to reduce tidal power and a request to increase reverse tidal power. Further, the request for power adjustment may include the content of directly instructing changes in charge/discharge power, discharge power, and charge power in the storage battery 21 .

The power management system 1 can be configured (for example, as one function) in a form included in a power management system such as TEMS (Town Energy Management System) or CEMS (Community Energy Management System). Also, the power management apparatus 10 can be configured (for example, as one function) to be included in a management apparatus (management server) in a power management system such as TEMS or CEMS. Here, TEMS and CEMS are systems that collectively manage electric power in a plurality of consumer facilities 20 such as residences, commercial facilities, and industrial facilities in a predetermined area, for example. In this case, the power management device 10 manages (predicts and controls) the charge/discharge power of the plurality of storage batteries 21 of the plurality of consumer facilities 20, and also manages (predicts and controls) the power generated by the power generation equipment, It can be configured as a device that manages (predicts and controls) the power consumption of load equipment. Further, the consumer facilities managed by the power management apparatus 10 may include consumer facilities that do not have a storage battery. In this embodiment, the predetermined area range may be formed by one area range, or may be formed by a plurality of geographically dispersed area ranges.

In the present embodiment, the power generation plan can include a planned value for each consumer facility 20 as a whole and an individual planned value for each consumer facility 20 regarding power to be reversely flowed to the distribution network. In addition, the demand plan may include a planned value for each customer facility 20 as a whole or an individual planned value for the customer facility 20 for power purchased from the power distribution network in a forward power flow.

Under the plan value simultaneous same quantity system to which this embodiment corresponds, it is required that the actual performance of the demand plan is achieved as planned. In other words, in the plan value simultaneous same amount system to which this embodiment corresponds, the actual amount of power flowing backward from each customer facility 20 as a whole and the actual amount of power receiving forward power flowing from each customer facility 20 as a whole are different from the demand plan. It is required that there is no excess or deficiency. A demand plan is a plan based on demand forecast (consumption forecast and power generation forecast). In this embodiment, the generated power includes the power generated by the power generation equipment 25 and the power discharged by the storage battery 21 .

In FIG. 2 , the power management apparatus 10 executes power control for the power equipment in each consumer facility 20 as a whole. Here, power control means formulating a demand plan, a power generation plan, and a power adjustment plan, and managing actual values against target values based on each plan. The power management apparatus 10 is connected to each of the customer facilities 20 via a communication line 40 so as to be able to communicate with each other. Thereby, the power management device 10 can control the operation of the power equipment provided in the consumer facility 20 . Also, the power management device 10 is connected to the host control system 50 via a communication line 60 so as to be able to communicate with each other. Also, the power management apparatus 10 is connected via a communication line 40 so as to be able to acquire information representing weather forecast values from a server 70 . The weather prediction value includes a prediction value of weather information (weather (sunny, rainy, snowy, cloudy, etc.), amount of insolation, temperature, humidity) for a certain period of time in the future for each predetermined area (or for each mesh). In addition, the power management apparatus 10 can acquire weather information for a certain past period from the server 70 .

The communication unit 11 communicates with the control device 22 and the server 70 in the consumer facility 20 via the communication line 40 . Also, the communication unit 11 communicates with the host control system 50 via the communication line 60 . Note that the communication line 60 may also be configured via a network 41 such as the Internet, like the communication line 40 .

The storage unit 13 stores information used by the control device 12 for power control. The storage unit 13 of this embodiment stores power generation plan information 131 , demand plan information 132 , and consumer facility basic information 133 . The storage unit 13 also stores the actual demand information 134 , the actual power generation information 135 , the baseline 136 and the template 137 . The storage unit 13 also stores predetermined values calculated based on the power generation plan information 131, the demand plan information 132, the consumer facility basic information 133, and the like.

The power generation plan information 131 is information indicating the power generated by the formulated power generation plan. The power generation plan information 131 includes, for example, a predicted value of power demand and power generation of each power equipment provided in each consumer facility 20 at the time of power generation, an adjustable amount related to power demand and power generation of each power equipment (reference value is a reference value) It includes information such as the amount of electric power expected to be able to increase or decrease, and the amount of power stored in each storage battery 21 . The demand plan information 132 is information indicating power demand according to the formulated demand plan. The demand plan information 132 includes predicted values of power demand and power generation of each power equipment provided in each consumer facility 20 at the time of demand, and adjustable amounts (increase based on the reference value) related to power demand and power generation of each power equipment. power amount expected to be able to be reduced), the amount of power stored in each storage battery 21, and other information. The customer facility basic information 133 includes basic information about each customer facility 20 . For example, the customer facility basic information corresponding to one customer facility 20 includes a customer facility ID (identification code) that uniquely identifies the customer facility 20, information indicating the installation position such as longitude, latitude, and address; Information indicating where it is included in a plurality of weather forecast (weather forecast) areas, contract power value of consumer facility 20, rated output value and installation direction of power generation facility 25, rated power of storage battery 21 (rated output) value (rated charge/discharge power value, rated discharge power value, or rated charge power value) and capacity, information on power load equipment 26 provided in the customer facility 20, communication unit provided in the customer facility 20 24 and control device 22 addresses.

The actual demand information 134 is information indicating the actual values (measured values) of the demand power (consumed power and generated power) in each consumer facility 20, and the power demand for each predetermined time period for the past several years or one year. Includes measurements. In the present embodiment, power demand includes purchased (forward flow) power and sold (reverse flow) power, and is represented by a positive value in the case of purchased power and a negative value in the case of sold power. .

Power generation record information 135, which is information indicating the measured value of the generated power (generated power of the power generation equipment 25) in each customer facility 20, and includes the measured value of the generated power at predetermined time intervals for the past several years or one year. .

The baseline 136 includes information representing the baseline for each customer facility 20 calculated by the baseline calculation unit 125 and the baseline for each customer group composed of a plurality of customer facilities 20 .

The template 137 includes information representing patterns of predicted power generation values. The pattern of the predicted power generation value represents, for example, the predicted value of the generated power at predetermined times of the day. Contains patterns of predictors. In this case, template 137 includes a plurality of patterns classified by weather classification and season classification.

Based on the power generation plan information 131 and the demand plan information 132 stored in the storage unit 13 and the actual values (measured values) of power demand and power generation in each customer facility 20, the power management unit 121 controls each customer facility. control the power equipment at 20; The power management unit 121 also receives, via the communication unit 11 , a request for power adjustment at a predetermined request time from the host control system 50 operated by the power company or the like, which is the aggregation coordinator. The predetermined requested time is the time during which a power adjustment or demand reduction or demand increase is requested and is defined, for example, by a start time and an end time or a start time and a duration. The power adjustment request corresponds to the DR request, and includes information indicating the power adjustment request time, the power value for which demand reduction or demand increase is requested, the power amount value, and the like. Note that the control device 12 treats the requested time as an adjustment time (adjustment time period) in the power adjustment plan. The power management unit 121 manages power demand in each consumer facility 20 according to a request related to a change in power demand based on the baseline 136 .

In addition, the power management unit 121 transmits a charge/discharge command to each consumer facility 20 based on the power generation plan, the demand plan, and the power adjustment plan for each predetermined control time unit shorter than the adjustment time, and charges and discharges each storage battery 21. It instructs each consumer facility 20 to control power. Here, the charge/discharge command is, for example, information indicating the target control time unit, information indicating the target value of the average discharge power or the target value of the average charge power in the control time unit, or information indicating the target value of the average charge power in the control time unit It includes information indicating the target value of the amount of discharged power or the target value of the amount of charged power.

The average consumption value acquisition unit 122 acquires an average consumption value, which is an average value of past power consumption of each consumer facility 20 . The weather forecast value acquisition unit 123 acquires the weather forecast value for the current day corresponding to the location of each customer facility 20 . The power generation prediction value calculation unit 124 calculates a power generation prediction value, which is a prediction value of the generated power gain of each customer facility 20 on the day, based on the weather prediction value. The baseline calculation unit 125 calculates a baseline, which is a reference value (reference value) related to changes in power demand, based on the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value, and stores the calculated result in the storage unit 13. .

Note that the average consumption value acquiring unit 122 can acquire the past average consumption value of each consumer facility 20 located in each predetermined area. Also, the weather forecast value acquisition unit 123 can acquire the weather forecast value for the current day for each area. In addition, the predicted power generation value calculation unit 124 can calculate the predicted power generation value per unit of each customer facility 20 on the day for each area based on the predicted weather value. Also, the baseline calculation unit 125 can divide each area into a plurality of groups based on the unit power generation predicted value for each area, and calculate the baseline for each group.

The power management apparatus 10 of the present embodiment performs power management for each customer facility 20 (single configuration) and for each group consisting of a plurality of customer facilities 20 (group configuration). corresponds to Moreover, this embodiment has one feature in the method of generating the baseline. Therefore, the method of generating a baseline in this embodiment will be described in detail below separately for the case of a single configuration and the case of a group configuration.

(In case of single configuration)
A case of a single structure will be described with reference to FIGS. 3 to 6. FIG. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an operation example (baseline calculation example) of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 4 to 6 are diagrams for explaining an operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. FIG. 4 shows an example of baseline calculation in the case of a single configuration according to this embodiment. FIG. 5 shows the comparison result between the baseline and the actual value (when the day is sunny). Figure 6 shows the comparison results between the baseline and actual values (when the day is cloudy)

The processing shown in FIG. 3 is executed for each customer facility 20 . In the power management apparatus 10, first, the average consumption value acquiring unit 122 acquires the average consumption value from the storage unit 13 (step S11). In step S11, the average consumption value acquisition unit 122, for example, refers to the actual demand information 134 and the actual power generation information 135, obtains the power consumption from the difference between the actual demand information 134 and the actual power generation information 135, and uses the following calculation method. to get the consumption average. The average consumption value acquiring unit 122 sets the average value at the same time for the past five days as the average consumption value. Alternatively, the average consumption value acquiring unit 122 takes the average value of the items with the highest demand up to the fourth at the same time in the past five days as the average consumption value. Alternatively, the average consumption value acquisition unit 122 takes the average value of the same day of the week at the same time for the past four weeks as the average consumption value.

Next, the weather forecast value obtaining unit 123 obtains the weather forecast value for the current day from the server 70 (step S12).

Next, the power generation prediction value calculation unit 124 calculates the power generation prediction value for the day based on the weather prediction value obtained in step S12 (step S13). In step S13, the power generation prediction value calculation unit 124 calculates the power generation prediction value from the weather prediction value as follows.
(1) For example, using a commonly used major and highly accurate public power generation prediction, the power generation prediction value calculation unit 124 calculates the solar radiation prediction value, temperature prediction value, installation latitude and longitude, installation direction, inclination angle, Predict power generation from capacity. (2) Alternatively, the predicted power generation value calculation unit 124 calculates the one-day power generation template for each case of (sunny, rainy, cloudy) x (intermediate season, summer, winter) stored in the storage unit 13 as the template 137. is used to determine the power generation forecast value according to the weather forecast.

Next, the baseline calculator 125 calculates a baseline from the average consumption value obtained in step S11 and the predicted power generation value obtained in step S13 (step S14).
In step S14, the baseline calculator 125 calculates the baseline from the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value, for example, as follows. That is, the baseline calculator 125 calculates the following equation for each 30-minute frame.

Baseline = max (average consumption value - predicted power generation value, 0) - max (predicted power generation value - average consumption value, 0)

Here, max (average consumption value-predicted power generation value, 0) corresponds to purchased power, and max (predicted power generation value-average consumption value, 0) corresponds to sold power. Also, max(a, b) is a function that takes large values for a and b.

FIG. 4 shows an example of calculating a baseline (shown as a reference value in FIG. 4) in a simulation targeting a certain consumer facility 20. In FIG. The figures for the previous day to the 5th day are actual values of power demand every 30 minutes. The standard value (reference value) is the average value of the four largest values from the previous day to the previous day to the 5th day every 30 minutes. The actual value (sunny) is the actual value of power demand for every 30 minutes when the day is sunny. The actual value (cloudy) is the actual value of power demand for every 30 minutes when the day is cloudy. The reference value (sunny) is a reference value (baseline) of power demand for every 30 minutes, taking into account the power generation prediction when the day is predicted to be sunny. The reference value (cloudy) is the reference value (baseline) of power demand for every 30 minutes, taking into account the power generation prediction when the day is predicted to be cloudy.

FIG. 5 shows the actual value when the day is sunny (“Actual value (sunny)” in FIG. 4), the baseline according to this embodiment (“Reference value (sunny)” in FIG. 4), and power generation due to weather The baseline (“reference value (reference value)” in FIG. 4) when prediction is not considered is shown. FIG. 6 shows the actual value when the day is cloudy ("actual value (cloudy)" in FIG. 4), the baseline according to the present embodiment ("reference value (cloudy)" in FIG. 4), and power generation due to weather The baseline (“reference value (reference value)” in FIG. 4) when prediction is not considered is shown. In both FIG. 5 (sunny) and FIG. 6 (cloudy), the error between the baseline and the actual value according to the present embodiment is smaller than the error between the baseline and the actual value when power generation prediction due to weather is not considered. The average daily error rate is -1% in the case of fine weather shown in FIG. Further, the average daily error rate is 4% in the case of cloudy weather shown in FIG.

(In case of group configuration)
Next, with reference to FIGS. 7 to 12, a case where the power management apparatus 10 of the present embodiment performs power management for each group consisting of a plurality of consumer facilities 20 will be described. FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing a configuration example of a power management system according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 8 is a flow chart showing another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG. 9 and 10 are diagrams for explaining another operation example of the control device 12 shown in FIG.

In the case of a group configuration, as shown in FIG. 7, the power management apparatus 10 groups a plurality of consumer facilities 20 into a plurality of groups, determines a baseline for each group, and requests power adjustment (DR, etc.). ), the power management of each consumer facility 20 is executed in group units.

FIG. 8 shows an example of baseline calculation for the group configuration according to this embodiment. In the power management apparatus 10, first, the average consumption value acquiring unit 122 acquires the average consumption value of the consumer facility 20 for each area from the storage unit 13 (step S21). Here, the area is, for example, a certain area divided on a map corresponding to a certain range in which weather prediction is performed, as shown in FIG. In step S21, the average consumption value acquisition unit 122 refers to, for example, the actual demand information 134, the actual power generation information 135, and the basic consumer facility information 133, and obtains the power consumption from the difference between the actual demand information 134 and the actual power generation information 135. Then, an average consumption value is obtained for each area (an average value for the entire area) by a calculation method similar to that of step S11 described above.

Next, the weather forecast value obtaining unit 123 obtains the weather forecast value for each area of the current day from the server 70 (step S22).

Next, the predicted power generation value calculation unit 124 calculates the predicted power generation value per unit for each area on the day based on the weather forecast value obtained in step S22 (step S23). , the predicted power generation value per unit is a predicted power generation value for one customer facility 20, and takes one value in the same area.

Next, the baseline calculator 125 divides each area into a plurality of groups based on the unit power generation predicted value for each area (step S24). In step S24, the baseline calculation unit 125 assigns, for example, each area with a predicted unit power generation value of XX or more to Group 1, each area with a predicted unit power generation value of XX to less than XX to Group 2, Then, each area with a power generation prediction value per unit of XX or less is grouped into Group 3.

Then, the baseline calculation unit 125 calculates a baseline for each group from the average consumption value and the predicted unit power generation value for each group (step S25).

FIG. 10 shows an example of the predicted power generation value, the predicted consumption value, and the baseline of the group to which the customer facility 20 in the sunny forecast area belongs. FIG. 11 shows an example of the predicted power generation value, the predicted consumption value, and the baseline of the group to which the consumer facility 20 in the cloudy forecast area belongs. Also, FIG. 12 shows an example of baseline calculation in a certain time section for 16 consumer facilities 20 . The chart on the upper side of FIG. 12 shows the number of the consumer facility 20, the area, the weather forecast, the baseline group, the consumption forecast, the power generation forecast, the power purchase forecast, the power sale forecast, (power purchase - power sale), and the baseline. are associated with each other. The baseline value is the same value for each group.

As described above, according to the above-described embodiment, the error between the reference value and the actual value is reduced, the control can be stably performed from the reference value, and the incentive for the control can be imparted fairly. Become.

Also, when controlling consumer facilities over a wide area, the weather conditions differ depending on the region, and one reference value cannot be used. However, it is possible to suppress an increase in the amount of calculation by performing grouping based on weather forecasts and determining a reference value for each group.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to the above embodiments, and design changes and the like are also included within the scope of the present invention.

1: power management system, 10: power management device, 20: consumer facility, 21: storage battery, 12: control device, 121: power management unit, 122: average consumption value acquisition unit, 123: weather forecast value acquisition unit, 124 : power generation predicted value calculation unit, 125: baseline calculation unit

Claims (4)

A device for managing power demand at one or more consumer facilities in response to a request for changes in power demand,
an average consumption value acquisition unit that acquires the past average consumption value of each consumer facility;
a weather forecast value acquisition unit that acquires a weather forecast value for the day corresponding to the location of each of the consumer facilities;
a power generation forecast value calculation unit that calculates a power generation forecast value for each of the consumer facilities on the day based on the weather forecast value;
a baseline calculation unit that calculates a baseline, which is a reference value related to changes in demand for power, based on the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value ;
The average consumption value acquisition unit acquires the past average consumption value of each of the consumer facilities located in each predetermined area,
The weather forecast value acquiring unit acquires the weather forecast value for the day for each of the areas,
The predicted power generation value calculation unit calculates a predicted power generation value per unit of each of the customer facilities on the day for each area based on the weather forecast value,
The baseline calculation unit groups each of the areas into a plurality of groups based on the predicted power generation value per unit for each of the areas, and calculates the baseline for each of the groups.
Power management device. The power management apparatus according to claim 1 , further comprising: a power management unit that manages power demand in each of the consumer facilities according to the request based on the baseline. at least one of each of the consumer facilities has a power storage facility;
The power management apparatus according to claim 2 , wherein the power management unit manages power demand in each of the consumer facilities according to the request based on the baseline by commanding charging and discharging of the power storage equipment. . 1. A method of managing demand for power at one or more customer facilities in response to a demand for changes in demand for power, comprising:
obtaining a past consumption average value of each said consumer facility;
obtaining a weather forecast value for the current day corresponding to the location of each said customer facility;
calculating a predicted power generation value for each of the consumer facilities for the current day based on the predicted weather value;
a step of calculating a baseline, which is a reference value related to changes in demand for electricity, based on the average consumption value and the predicted power generation value, and storing the baseline in a predetermined storage unit ;
The step of obtaining the average consumption value includes obtaining the past average consumption value of each of the consumer facilities located in each predetermined area,
The step of obtaining the weather forecast value includes obtaining the weather forecast value for the current day for each of the areas;
The step of calculating the predicted power generation value includes calculating the predicted power generation value per unit of each of the customer facilities on the day for each of the areas based on the weather forecast value;
The step of calculating the baseline and storing it in a predetermined storage unit includes grouping each of the areas into a plurality of groups based on the predicted power generation value per unit for each of the areas, and calculating the baseline for each of the groups. including calculating and storing in a predetermined storage unit
Power management method.

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