TW200424905A - Prediction method and system of gas diffusion - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention predicts the diffusion condition of diffusible substance released to atmosphere. Replace the diffusible substanceby particle, obtain the moving location of the resulting particle from the source by computation and log beforehand by mapping the moving location and the elapsed time after release. Next, based on the elapsed time and refer to the said intensity data to obtain the particle intensity of the occurring time so that the moving location, the elapsed time after release and intensity correspond to each particle and log beforehand. Calculate the concentration in the specified area at the specified timeso as to obtain the particle intensity presenting in the specified area by accumulation.

Description

200424905 (ii) Description of the invention: TECHNICAL FIELD The present invention relates to a method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance. The present invention is a substance that predicts how substances (such as radioactive substances and smoke) discharged into the atmosphere from diffusion sources (such as radioactive substance use facilities and smoke letters) will diffuse into the atmosphere, and that changes every moment when predictions are made at various locations. Concentrated. The prior art is currently developing a situation in which radioactive materials are discharged to the outside from facilities handling radioactive materials due to accidents, predicting the spread of radioactive materials and the concentration of radioactive materials at various locations, and predicting the risk of danger due to radioactive materials. Method for predicting the spread of the region. The method for predicting the diffusion status is applicable not only to the prediction of the diffusion status of radioactive materials, such as the diffusion of gas (smoke) discharged from the solids of the factory into the atmosphere, the calculation of the gas concentration in various places, and the In the analysis of environmental impact assessment, the situation of analyzing the diffusion status of diffusing substances may also be applied. By calculation, the prediction of the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere must be followed by two calculations. (1) Prediction calculation of gas conditions (2) Prediction calculation of diffusion conditions The so-called (1) prediction of gas conditions is based on meteorological observations such as meteorological GPV (Grid Point Value) and AMEDAS, and the partial differential analysis of atmospheric phenomena by calculation Equation, from the time of the occurrence of the event (such as the discharge of radioactive materials to the outside) to the point after the predetermined time, calculate the wind direction and wind speed of the majority of the evaluation points (lattice point positions) for each 85181.doc 200424905 time point at a fixed time scale by calculation. That is, it means the calculation of the gas condition representing the wind speed field data at each time scale. In addition, the so-called (2) diffusion state prediction calculation means that the concentration and properties of the released diffusing substance and the aforementioned wind speed field data are substituted into the diffusion equation of the diffusing state of the substance (particle) to obtain the Calculation of the concentration of the diffusing substance at the positions of the grid points at each time scale. < Description of gas condition prediction calculation > First, the outline of the gas condition prediction calculation will be described. Meteorological observations, such as meteorological GPV data, are communicated every 12 hours by the Meteorological Operations Support Center. The meteorological GPV data is based on the extension of the north-south direction on the surface of the earth and the distance between the east and west directions is a specified distance (2km). The distance between each other is a predetermined distance (2km). Most places where the vacation line crosses (this is called the parent grid point position) display meteorological materials (wind speed vector (wind direction, wind speed), air pressure, temperature , Water content). In addition, the meteorological GPV data is a summary of the information such as the time of the message, 3 hours later, 6 hours later, and 9 hours at a 3-hour interval of 51 hours. It is used as the meteorological data for the location of each mother grid point. The meteorological data of the location of the mother grid point of the above-mentioned meteorological GPV data, because the distance between the locations of the mother grid points in space is extended to 2Km, and the time is extended to 3 hours, so only the meteorological resources of the location of the mother grid points are borrowed. The data of the gas condition (wind direction, wind speed), which is indicated by the staff, and the wind speed field data, can be used to calculate the diffusion concentration of diffusive substances. From the coarser meteorological observations in space and time, the gas conditions (wind direction, wind speed) that are denser in space and time are obtained. Here, set in the area to be calculated (on the surface of the earth) (Pre-set specific area) between the positions of the mother grid points, set the position of the sub grid points. The positions of the sub grid points are arranged on the surface of the earth as the north-south direction extends and the distance between the east and west directions is a certain distance (50m) The majority of the wefts of the vacation line are extended from east to west with a certain distance from the north and south directions. (50m) where most people want to intersect with each other through vacation. And 'by analyzing the partial differential equation of the atmospheric phenomenon by difference analysis calculation, find out every certain time scale starting from > Baye (for example, every 20 seconds interval) Meteorological data of the location of the child grid point and the location of the mother grid point.

The basic equation of wind speed% analysis shown by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code developed by Laxichuan 1 University and Mission Research Company is used as a partial differential equation for analyzing atmospheric phenomena. The basic equations of wind speed field analysis shown by mRAMS code are formed by motion equation, thermal energy equation, moisture diffusion equation and continuous equation, and are expressed by the following formulas (1) to (6). [Number 1] 395 85181.doc 200424905 Equation of motion: f | ", duld / ayldra ^ jd / 4¾ .. Rhyme A. (-卜 封 i.5rMax > Γ? ^ * 5wi & avuawlt 2 awiayavjsyav »了 r ~ v ^ i & avjarawH / fi \-/ i (1) ^ (3) Ar ^ lar thermal energy equation δθ δθ, δθ r— = -w — ~-v J dt dx

Sy 3Θ, d} II _ | — 11 · I dz dx Water diffusion equation Connect and read equation d9A d

Kh (4) dz t) (5) = as. (dp, 0Qu Jp0 ^ dp ^ 9t C, P〇 ^ 〇

Sr 〇y dz ⑹ U, V, w: wind speed f: Coriolis parameter km: eddy viscosity coefficient of motion kn: vortex diffusion coefficient of heat and moisture Qu: temperature level of water (ice-water) rn: Mixing ratio of moisture such as rain, snow, etc. P: density rad · radiation (light shot) g: gravity acceleration R: gas constant Cv: constant product specific heat Exner function (variation points), Qv · temporary temperature p: pressure addition The word 0 is the reference value π, so 4 is different from the basic equation of wind speed field analysis shown in the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling 85181.doc 200424905 △ "em) code, and the calculation opens u to get each time scale of the head π (for example, every time 20-second interval) meteorological data at the positions of each mother grid point, and wind direction vector data (feng field data) of the meteorological data at the position of each child grid point. The state prediction calculation will be explained. For the diffusion state prediction calculation, the position of each mother grid point and each child grid point of every 20-second scale obtained by the RAMS (Regi〇nal Atm0spheric M0deHng System) code will be used. Wind speed field Material, a succession of generations into the Colorado State University

HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model) developed by Mission Research is used to predict the diffusion status. As a specific example of the prediction calculation of the diffusion status, the Lagrangiai ^^ sub-diffusion model is used. This Lagrangian particle diffusion model calculates the diffusion velocity (u,, ν ', w,) of particles using the formulas (7) to (9) shown next, and moves each particle. [Number 2]

The Lagrangian particle diffusion model uses the formulas (12) to (14) to calculate the diffusion speed of particles. ▽ • (t) = RTV (t-At) + a,) rv w * (t) = Rw W1 (t-At) + (l ~ R ° ^) rw Here, Ru, Rv, Rw: Lagrange chaos Correlation coefficient of the stream itself -10-3B7 85181.doc 200424905 U, ⑴, V, (t), w, (t: time Ru (At) = u 丨 (t) · 一 Δϋ) r ---- exp \ Rv (At) = v * (t) .V (t «At) = exp ^ Rw (At) = w1 (t) · w1 (t-At) --- = exp Δϋ 1 At ^ Lv > f At '

CO here, σ u, σ v, σ w: standard deviation of turbulent flow velocity Tlu, TLv, TLw: Lagrange time scale ru ^ C7u7lu &=; CTVT] V, rw = cTw77w + Wd 〔Cjf) , 7? U, 7? V, 7? W: regular random number (mean is 0)

Wd: The gravity settlement speed is here. The wind speed field data of each mother grid point position and each child grid point position calculated by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code every 20 seconds will be substituted into HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model). ) Code to explain a specific example of the prediction calculation for the diffusion status. In order to perform this calculation, the material discharged into the atmosphere from the emission source is replaced by a large number of particles P. From the position of the emission source to each calculation period △ t (here Δ t is 20 seconds), N occurrences (in Here are 20) particles P. That is, 20 particles are generated in each calculation period Δί (20 seconds), so that 20 particles P are generated at the calculation start point, 20 particles are generated 20 seconds after the calculation start point, and 40 are calculated from the start point of the calculation. 85181.doc -11-200424905 particles occurred in 20 seconds. In addition, at each calculation period Δt (20 seconds), the position (spatial coordinates) of each particle P is calculated by calculation. Again, take P. . 01, P0 02, p0. . 3.p0004, P0005, p〇〇06, p〇〇07, Poo08 'Poo09 ^ P〇〇10 ^ Poo11 ^ P〇〇12 ^ P〇〇13 ^ P〇〇H. P〇〇15 ^ p〇 〇16 ^ P0017, PG〇18, P0019, p⑽2G, shows the 20 particles P that occurred at the start time of the calculation (time 0 seconds). Take P2001, P2002, P2003, P2004, P205, P06 07 〇8 v 丄 20 a 2〇, P2009 ^ P2〇10 ^ P, ο11. P20 ^. P20-14, p2〇15 ^ p2016 ^ p ^ 17 ^ P20, Pm, Pa20 shows the particle P that occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation. P4〇01, P4002, p4003, P4〇04 P4005

P 40 06 P4009, P4010, P4O ", P4018, P4019, P4o2 particles p.

ρ4007, P 40〇 > P4G12, P4〇13, P4. ", p4〇15, p4〇16, p, show that the number in the lower paragraph after 17 40 '20' after 40 seconds from the start of the calculation is displayed in the symbol. The time from the start of the calculation is displayed in the symbol. The upper stroke after "p" reads the 竽, and records the particles of _ that occurred at that time. Particles at other times are also expressed in the same way. P. . : First P: At the beginning. At the point, 20 particles P are generated from the discharge source s. . . 1,

Poo, P0012, p00 " 〇〇 〇〇 °°, P °°° 5, P: 6, p: 7, p: 8, p:, P. ,,, P00,4, P00i5, P00i6, P0017, P0018, P. The emission source s shown in 19, 19 is re-issued 〇4, p. 05 p 〇6 〇 〇7 r20, corpse 20, P20U /, 20 particles from the graph after 20 seconds from the start of the calculation, P20, ρ2ϋ〇2, ργ3, / 85181.doc -12 -200424905 P2 08 P 2 0 09, P 2 0 10, P 2 0u, P 2012, P 2 0 11 12 13

P 20 n P2015, p20 16 P 17 2 (T ', P2〇18, p20 ", p2〇 ... At this time, the particles that occurred at the start of the calculation are ρ〇 () (Π, P〇 (), r〇〇10 ^ Π 1 1 12 19 20 02

Pr 03 〇〇04 '〇〇〇05 ^ 〇〇〇 〇 〇 〇 00.. 〇〇〇09. Ρ〇〇１〇. Ρ〇〇Π. Ρ〇〇12 χ ΡΡ 〇. 13 'ρ. . 14. P. . 15, ρ. ,, Ρ〇〇17 from the exhaust source S to the departure position, and spread. The position of each particle P is calculated using the wind speed field data every 20 seconds on the scale of the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code to calculate the diffusion velocity (U,, V ', w,), calculated by moving each particle. After 40 seconds from the start of the calculation, 20 additional particles ρ:!, Ρ /, ρ: 3, ρ: 4, ρ ρ 4008, ρ4η09, ρ 10 40 were generated from the emission source s shown in FIG. 20. 40 ρ4〇17, P4018, P4〇β 18, P0019, Poo 20 series 4005, P4006, P40 ρ40η, P4, 12, P4O13, ρ4〇ι, ρ4〇15, ρ4. P ,. 14 07 16 At this time, the particles, d2, p3, p3, p2, p0, p0, p0, p9, p :, p0011, ρ〇〇Ρ〇ο 4, P0005, ρ-〇〇Ρ. . 13, ρ. . 14. P0. ", P〇〇 from the emission source s to the farther away position, and spread In addition, from the start of shoulder counting 20 seconds after the start of 20 P2010 ~ 20 P2002, P2003, r20 11

Poo17, P0018, P0019, ρ00 11 ΤΛ12) 0 20 series P, ηυ3, ΡΟΛ04, p2005, D 06 P2006, P2007, P2008, P, 09 20

? 20, P2012, D

P 2〇, P 2 0 14, P 2015, P 20 20 16, P 2017, P 2018, n 19 P 2 0 'is from the source S to the departure position, and spreads. ▼ The system is set up using RAMS (Regional Atmospheric 〇delingSystem ) Code to obtain the wind speed field data per scale, 31Θ 85181 such as -13-200424905 Calculate the diffusion velocity (v, w) of each particle p of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model. It is obtained by moving each particle. After 60 seconds from the start of the calculation, the emission source s shown in the figure generated 20 more particles P6001, P6002, P6003, P6004, P6005, P6Q06, p6Q〇7, p6. . 8. p60 ° 9, p601 (), p6 :, p6 () 12, p6013, P60m, b ΤΛ 1 1 60 P60, P6.18, P6.19, P6202. At this time, the particles p ^ oi, p㈧M, ρ〇α〇3, P that occurred at the beginning of the calculation. '4, PO00 ° 5, PO00 ° 6, ρ. . . 'P () () () 8, ρ〇 () 〇9, ρ. ,, ρ〇 :, ρ〇〇12, ρ〇. 3. ρ. . 14, p0015, p0〇6, p0017, p. ,, Ρ〇019, ρ〇〇20, from the source S to reach a more distant position, and spread. In addition, '20 particles ρ ^ 01, ρ2002 ^ P2003 > P2〇04 > P2005, ρ2〇06 ^ ρ2〇07 ^ ρ2〇08, which occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation, ρ2〇09 ^ ρ2〇1〇 ^ ρ2 0 ", ρ2.12, P2.13, ρ2. ", ρ2〇15, ρ2 ,, ρ2. ", Ρ2 ,, ~ 19,? 2 ° 'means that the emission source s has reached a more distant position and diffused. In addition, '20 particles ρ ^ ίΗ which occurred 40 seconds after the start of the calculation, p4002' P4〇03 > P4004. P4〇〇 ^. P4〇〇6. P4〇07 λ p4〇08, p4〇09, p ^ lO ^ p4〇 ", p4.12, P4013, P4io4, p4Q15, p4, p4 〇17, pj8, ~ 19, P402 () 'It is from the exhaust source S to the exit position and spreads. The placement of each particle P' uses rams (Regional Atmospheric

Modeling System) code calculates the wind speed field data every 20 seconds scale, calculates the diffusion velocity (U, v, w ') of each particle p of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and obtains by moving each particle. As mentioned above, “20 particles are successively generated in each calculation period (Atpo seconds)” and the position of the particles in each calculation period △ ““ seconds ”is also obtained. 85181.doc • 14- 200424905 is the space coordinate ( xi (t), yi⑴, zi (t >>. Moreover, when a predetermined time has elapsed from the start of the calculation, the unit space (predicted unit volume) at a predetermined distance from the emission source 3 is shown in Fig. 22 *. In the case of particles, the concentration of the substance in the unit can be calculated from the number of particles. That is, if the substance Q (m3) is discharged from the source S in 1 second, the particle P is in 20 seconds. There are 20 occurrences (1 second after conversion), so each particle P is formed to have an emission source intensity of Q / l (m3). Here, the number of particles P existing in the unit space is multiplied by The strength of the exhaust source Q / l (m3) can be used to determine the concentration of the substance in the unit space. If the specific example shown above is generally displayed, it becomes as follows. The gas discharged from the exhaust source is replaced with a large number of particles. And so on. Moreover, N is emitted from the exhaust source per second Particles. In this case, the discharge amount of particles is calculated as N / sec. When the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the actual discharge source is Q (m3 / sec), each particle has Q / N (m3) The intensity of the emission source. For each particle, the equation of motion is calculated by a non-permanent numerical value, and the wind speed field data obtained from the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code will be substituted into the HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model) code. The Lagrangian particle diffusion model calculates the diffusion velocity (u ', ν', w,) of each particle P. By moving each particle, the coordinates of each particle can be determined non-permanently. That is, the coordinates of each particle can be inter-ordinated. It is determined by each calculation period △ t. Moreover, the data of each particle recorded in the data recording device is obtained by the Lagrangian particle model, which is only the Shiba coordinates (xi (t), yi⑴, zi⑴) of each particle. -15- 200424905 The HYPACT code of the equation of motion of particles (substances) represents the migration, diffusion, and gravity settlement of particles. Here, the phenomenon of particle migration depends on The time-averaged velocity of the atmosphere and the phenomenon of diffusion depend on the turbulent velocity of the atmosphere and the settlement of gravity, on the mass of the particles, the acceleration of gravity, and the viscosity coefficient of the air (see Figure 23). When the number of particles is 11, the gas concentration (substance concentration) in the space becomes nXQ / N (gas m3 / air. That is, the number of particles formed in the unit space is 11 times the number of particles each has. Emission source intensity Q / N. Problems to be Solved by the Invention The environmental concentration (concentration of a substance per unit volume) depends on the time change & Therefore, under the condition that the discharge amount changes with time, it is necessary to perform the diffusion calculation for each discharge condition. Therefore, under the assumption that there are many discharge conditions, it is necessary to perform the diffusion calculation of the discharge amount, and as a result, a huge calculation time is required. That is, as shown in FIG. 24, when, for example, a gas (substance) is discharged from an exhaust source s (for example, soot), the time change of the concentration of R gas at a certain place under the wind is due to the time of the substance discharged from the exhaust source S. That is, as shown in Fig. 25 (a). In the case where the amount of discharged material changes with time, the concentration of the substance at location F changes as shown in Fig. 25 (b) over time, as shown in Fig. 26 (a). In a certain situation, the concentration of the substance at the point f is as shown in Figure 26 (b), which rises to K and then maintains a constant concentration, as shown in Figure 27 (a). At the moment when the substance is discharged, the concentration of the substance at the point F , As shown in Figure 27 (b), it will become zero after the rise. 85181.doc -16- 2004249 05 In this way, it is necessary to make the number of particles to match the discharge of the material in the case where the amount of discharged material changes with time. The amount changes with time. In addition, the moving position of the particles that changes the number of particles over time is calculated in this way, and the concentration of the crop f is calculated from the moving position of the particles. Therefore, the change in the discharge amount varies. Example, the diffusion calculation must be done in advance Large calculation results are required. For example, in a facility that handles radioactive materials, in the case of an accident in which radioactive materials are discharged to the outside, a very large number of materials (such as 100 types of 4 substances) are discharged. And JL, in The discharge amount of each substance varies according to the time. Therefore, in each of the substances, the number of particles generated and the discharge amount of the substance change with time, so that the change in the number of particles < The moving position is determined by the particle's moving position as the concentration of the substance. Therefore, in this case, it is necessary to perform a diffusion calculation for 100 types of substances corresponding to, for example, 100 types of substances. The present invention is based on the foregoing prior art. A method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusive substance and a diffusion state of a diffusive substance in a short time can be predicted by π, even if the discharge amount of various substances changes with time. Prediction system for the purpose 0 Summary of the invention A method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance of the present invention that solves the above problems In order to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from the exhaust source into the atmosphere, the above-mentioned substances are replaced with a large number of particles, and set to a predetermined number of particles that will occur in each calculation cycle from the discharge / original position; -Η 85181.doc -17- 200424905 In the multi-point location in the area containing the location of the discharge source, the wind direction and wind speed field data will be displayed over time, and substituted into the diffusion equation for calculating the diffusion state of particles 'Find the diffusion velocity of each particle, and obtain the spatial coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle in each calculation cycle from this diffusion velocity, and measure the elapsed time after the elapsed time elapsed from the elapsed time at which the particle first occurred, The material recorder is recorded in advance corresponding to the space coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle; ~ Also, the change is proportional to the change in the amount of elapsed time that elapses with the elapsed time after the discharged object f, Pre-set the emission source intensity data of the particles as time elapses with the elapsed time after discharge; and read the record The spatial coordinates of each particle and the elapsed time after discharge of each particle in each calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device, and ^ read out the elapsed time after discharge 'to find out the time when each particle occurred, and use the intensity data of the discharge source to calculate The intensity of the emission source of each particle at this point in time is recorded in the aforementioned data recording device, and the spatial coordinates of each particle corresponding to each calculation period and the elapsed time and intensity of the emission source after each particle are ejected; The concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area is obtained by accumulating the intensity of the exhaustion source of all particles existing in the predetermined area in the predetermined calculation period. Wang In addition, the method for predicting the diffusion state of the diffusive substance of the present invention is for predicting the state of diffusion of the substance f discharged into the atmosphere from the majority (the source f is diffused into the atmosphere. The location of the source occurs in a predetermined number of grains in each calculation cycle. 315 85181.doc -18- 200424905; and the multiple locations in the area containing the location of the source of discharge will be followed by the B temple. The wind speed field data of wind direction and wind speed are displayed after change, and the diffusion equation of the diffusion state of the calculated particles is substituted to obtain the diffusion speed of each particle. From this diffusion speed, the space showing the spatial position of each particle in each calculation period is obtained. Coordinates' and measure the elapsed time after the elapsed time from the elapsed time when the aforementioned particle first occurred, corresponding to the ⑽ coordinate of each particle that identifies each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle and the discharge source identification information of the discharge source are recorded in advance To the data logger; and the proportion is the time elapsed after the discharge of the substance accompanied by each discharge source. The change of the discharge volume between each time is set in advance for each discharge source. The discharge intensity data of the particles with the elapsed time after the discharge is set in advance. Also, it is said that each calculation period recorded in the aforementioned data recording device is The spatial coordinates of each particle, the elapsed time after discharge of each particle, and the identification information of the discharge source of each particle, and referring to the read elapsed time after discharge, determine the time point when each particle occurs, and refer to the read source identification information. The intensity of the emission source of each particle at the time of particle occurrence is obtained from the aforementioned emission source intensity data of the emission source corresponding to the particle generation, and the spatial coordinates and particles of each particle corresponding to each calculation period are recorded in the aforementioned data recording device. The elapsed time after the discharge and the intensity of the discharge source; " Also, the concentration of the aforementioned substance, which is both sufficient and calculated in a predetermined area of the cycle, is a particle that accumulates in the predetermined area and accumulates all particles in the predetermined area. The intensity of the emission source can be obtained. Wang 85181.doc -19- 200424905 、 In addition, the present invention < Prediction method of the diffusion state of the diffusing substance The above-mentioned emission source intensity data is obtained by actually measuring the concentration of the shellfish actually discharged from the aforementioned emission source and is set; ~ 岫 逑 The emission source intensity data is obtained by observing the surroundings of the aforementioned emission source ", only / The time variation of the concentration of the shellfish of J is set as the basis. Another = the system for predicting the diffusion state of the diffusive substance of the present invention, which includes $,: operator, when the diffusive substance is discharged into the atmosphere, the measured diffusive substance-spoon; Chen Du, sending information showing the discharge of diffused substances; data communication facilities, which are meteorological observation data; 1¾, Hall, which is used to notify the evacuation advisers of the aforementioned companies and the surrounding residents of the aforementioned companies; and ^ Analysis Center It is used for the calculation of the diffusion status of diffusive substances, and the concentration of the substances in a given area is resolved. The safety analysis center, the data from the above-mentioned enterprises showing the discharge of diffusive shellfish, and the data from the aforementioned meteorological data The meteorological observation data of the facility is transmitted by means of information transmission; ^ Zaiyi | i € Hall ' / Chen degree, is transmitted by means of information transmission; also, the supervisory office is based on notification of refuge advice based on the concentration of the material. Embodiments Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. < First Lingshi form (when there is one discharge source) > A method for predicting the diffusion state of the expansion substance in the first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to Figs. 1 to 10. 85181.doc • 20- 200424905 In the first step of the 1K application pattern (refer to Figure 1 of the calculation flowchart), proceed as follows. That is, even if the discharge amount of the substance actually discharged from the discharge source S is constant, and if the discharge amount changes over time, first, let the discharge amount Q (m3 / sec) of the substance be a fixed value 10), using the previous Of

Lagranglan particle diffusion model, numerical calculation of particle dynamics. Further, in addition to the spatial coordinates (xi (t), ⑴, ⑴, 各) of each particle having information, the elapsed time Ti 排出 after the elapsed time at the time when the particle originally occurred is exhausted, according to each-each calculation cycle ^ 'Record data The recording device has a description of the processing of the first step, as described next. This calculation # calculates the position (spatial coordinates) of particle p at each calculation period At (here At = 20 seconds), so that other particles occur, and in each calculation period seconds). First, at the beginning of the calculation, p 0 5 ^ 00, p 14 ^ 00, P 〇〇1 ^ P〇o〇2 ^ P 〇03. P〇〇〇4, Poo1. , Poo11, P0012, p00i3, Poo19, P0020. Twenty particles IV6, P: 7, P0, P :, and P0 were generated in the emission source S. 15, p0016, p00 ", p〇〇18, 20 seconds after the start of the calculation, the row shown in Figure 2, p, p2, p20 ", P2i2, P2〇〗 3, p2〇14, p2 ° P 17 Λ The source S reoccurs? 2050 U6 20 particles P2O1, P2O2, P2Q03, P2q04, D05 D12, P2O13, P2O-., P2 () 15, p 16 P2008 ρΛΛ09 Ν Τ) _ 1 〇20, ρ 20 • 20? 20 > ρ20] 18 n 19 P2020 p 07 r20 20 p 03 r 00 'ρ 12 00 00, 20 ratio 0, Department At this point, the particle p that occurred at the start of the calculation. :, Pqq02, P〇〇04'P〇〇〇5 > P〇〇06, P〇〇07.p〇〇〇〇.8. P〇〇〇 ^ p〇〇 10 n ° P〇〇13 'P〇〇 ^ P〇o ^ P00 ^ P〇〇 ^ p〇〇18.p〇〇190l 90; p' from the exhaust source s to the position of departure and spread. 〇} l%} 85181.doc -21-200424905 The position of each particle Poo01 ~ P〇〇20 is based on RAMS (Regional

Atmospheric Modeling System) code to obtain the wind velocity field data every 20 seconds scale, and calculate the diffusion velocity (u ', ν', w ') of each particle P〇〇G1 ~ P〇〇2G of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model. It is calculated by moving each particle. Further, the particles Pgg0i ~ p⑽20 that occurred at the start of the calculation are elapsed in 20 seconds from the start of the calculation (the time when the particle first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti (t) = 20 seconds after discharge corresponds to each spatial coordinate (xi (t = 20)), yi (t = 20) of each particle P0000 ~ p0020. ), Zi (t = 20), and recorded in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 2). After 40 seconds from the start of the calculation, another 20 particles P4, ι, P2, p030540, r4o-, P4om, p4ow, p4o occurred from the emission source s shown in FIG. u〇, p 06 40 07 p 〇8 ^ 4C P 17 40, P4〇09, P 10 40

P 40 11

P 40 12

P 13 40, P4014, P40U6 40, P4018, P4019 P4〇20 At this time, the particles that occurred at the start of the calculation are p00〇2, p〇Q〇3, P0 ° 4, P :, P〇❶ . 6. P0. . 'P0 :, p009, p. ,, PQ〇 ", p. .丨 2, P. . 13, P0014, P. . 15, P0016, p. . ", p〇〇18, p. .丨 9, p002. , Is from the source s to a more distant location and spread. In addition, 20 particles P20, P20 ° 2, P20.3, p2 ,, p205, P2006, ~ 2, p2,8, 'P20, which occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation. ^ 'P-12' P-13 'P2014 > P2〇-. P20-. P2〇-. P2〇 »8. P2019 and P2〇2 () are from the source S to the position where it left and diffusion. The position of each particle Poo01 ~ P002〇, p2, ~ p2〇2〇 is the data of wind speed field per 20319 85181.doc -22- 200424905 seconds scale obtained using RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code. , Calculate the diffusion speeds (u,, v,, w,) of each particle Poo01 ~ P002G, P2 () (h ~ P2202) in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and obtain it by moving each particle. Further, at the beginning of the calculation The particles PGG01 ~ P⑽ that occurred at the time point are 40 seconds from the start of the differentiating time (the time point when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti (t) = 40 seconds after discharge corresponds to each of the particles. The space coordinates (xi (t = 40)), yi (t = 40), and zi (t = 40) are recorded in the data recording device 1 (refer to FIG. 1 and FIG. 3). In addition, 20 seconds from the start of the calculation The particles ρ2 / ι ~ p2Q2〇 that occurred after 20 seconds passed from the start of the calculation (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti 排出 = 20 seconds after discharge corresponds to each of the particles P20 to P20 Each space coordinate of 〇 (xi (t = 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), zi (t ==:, and recorded in the data Recording device (refer to Figure 1, Figure 3). After 60 seconds from the start of the calculation, another 20 particles p600, p6.02, P6.03, P6Q04, and P6005 were generated from the discharge source s shown in Figure 4. , P6Q〇6, pJQ7, P6 ... 8, P60.9, P6.10, P60 ", P6.12, P6〇13, P6〇14, P6, p6〇16, p6.17, p6〇18 , P6.19, p6200. 60. At this time, 'particles that occurred at the beginning of the calculation, p./2, p ^ 03 P〇04 > Poo05 ^ Poo06, p〇〇07. p〇〇C8. p〇〇09, p〇〇〇〇 〇 ^ ^ ^ P0013, P ... 14, P0015, P0016, p0017, p., 19 ° 00 It is from the point where the exhaust source s reaches a more distant position and diffuses. In addition, at p 〇1 τ > 02 [20,? 20, p 1 〇, τ > 11 ^ 20 x r2〇 AO0 '?: 5'? / 6 '? Which occurred after 0 seconds,', P2013, P2014, P2015, p2016, 20 particles p 08 ^ ^ P20, | > 2009, ρ 17 ^, p2〇u, 85181.doc -23- 200424905 P2 °, P20 G 'are from the exhaust source 8 to a more distant position and spread more. In addition, 20 particles p4 occurred at p 0 1 p 02 p 1 0, p 11 a 40, corpse 40, p 19 p 20 [40, corpse 40, and occurred 40 seconds after the start of the difference. . 3. P4004, P4005, P: 6, p4〇. 'p4〇8, p: 9, p4012, P4013, P4〇14, p4〇15, p4〇16, p4,7, p4〇18, are from the discharge source s to the left position and more diffuse. The positions of each particle P00 ~ Poo20, P2〇01 ~ P2〇20, P4001 ~ P4020 are the ^ .XRAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) ^^ Calculated wind speed field data every 20 seconds scale, and calculate the first Particles of the particle diffusion model Pqq (h ~ P () () 2〇P20 01 P 20 20 、

The diffusion speeds P ′ from Pw01 to p4〇2 () are further determined by moving each particle (w, w ′). The particles Pqq〇i ~ P () () 2 () that occurred at the start of the calculation are 60 seconds from the start time of the / Beyond (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 60 seconds after discharge corresponds to each of the Tamamas' (X1 (t = 6〇)), yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60), and recorded in the shell material redundant recording device 1 (refer to FIGS. 1 and 4). In addition, the particles p ^ 01 ~ p ^ 20, which occur 20 seconds after the start of the calculation, have passed 40 seconds from the start of the calculation (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, let the time elapsed after row 2 TKt) = 40 seconds, corresponding to each spatial coordinate (xi (t = 60)), yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60) of each particle 20P20. ) And recorded in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 4). In addition, the particles P4001 ~ p4200 that occur 40 seconds after the start of the calculation are calculated from the start of the shoulder calculation (the time when the particles first occur) after 20 seconds. Here, the elapsed time after discharge TKt) = 20 seconds, which corresponds to each spatial coordinate (xi (t == 6〇)), yi (t =, of each particle 85181.doc -24-200424905 P40 ~ P402 ()). , Zi (t = 6 ()), and recorded in the data recording device 1 (refer to Fig. 1 and Fig. 4). As mentioned above, 20 particles are successively generated at every calculation period △ t (20 seconds) And find the position of the particles in each calculation period ΔK20 seconds, that is, the space coordinates (xi⑴, yi⑴, zi⑴). In addition, the elapsed time Ti (t) after the discharge of each calculation period Δί is measured in advance to make it correspond to each The space coordinates of the calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle are successively recorded in the data recorder 1. Next, the second step will be described in detail (refer to FIG. 1). In the aforementioned step, the amount of material discharged has been Q (mVSec) is calculated numerically as a certain value (= 10). However, the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the actual discharge source s is as shown in FIG. Here, the situation in which the discharge volume changes with time is shown in Figure 5. The change in the discharge amount of the substance is shown in Fig. 6, and the particle 'setting of the time elapsed with the elapsed time Ti⑴ after the discharge shows the data of the intensity of the discharge source.丨 ⑴ is 0 seconds, 20 seconds, and 60 seconds, then the intensity of the emission source is 0.3, 0.9, and 0.6, respectively. Second, it is recorded in the data recording device, and the spatial coordinates and each of the particles of each calculation cycle are read out. The elapsed time 的 after the discharge of the particles, and for each particle, refer to the elapsed time Ti⑴ after the discharge, to find the time point of the occurrence of the particles, and use the emission source intensity data shown in Figure 6 to determine the time of each particle. The intensity of the emission source. Further, the spatial coordinates of each particle and the elapsed time after the ejection of each particle and the intensity of the emission source correspond to each calculation period of 85181.doc -25- 200424905, and are then recorded in the data memory device 1. If specifically explained, as the data when the elapsed time Ti⑴ is 20 seconds after discharge (the first depletion calculation period), it corresponds to each space coordinate of each particle with ^ dagger ❹ μ (Qiu = 2〇)) yi (t = 2〇), zi (t = 2〇), and ^ Ti (t) = 20 seconds after discharge, and record them in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 2). Here, each particle is read out. The spatial coordinates (xi (t = 20)), yi (t = 20), zi (t = 20) of each space from 〇〇〇〇 ～ 〇〇〇〇〇, and the elapsed time after discharge 卩 ⑴ = seconds, The current time t = 20 seconds minus the second elapsed time after discharge, find each particle P〇〇〇PK P〇, elapsed time after discharge at the time of occurrence

Ti (t) = 0 seconds. Further, from the discharge intensity data shown in Fig. 6, the discharge source intensity 0.3 when the elapsed time TKt) = 0 seconds after the occurrence of particles PΌ001 to P2002 was obtained was obtained. Furthermore, the space coordinates (xi (t = 2〇)), yi (t = 20), Zi (t = 20) corresponding to each particle P0001 to p〇〇2❶ and the elapsed time Ti020 seconds after discharge, Corresponds to the emission source intensity 0.3 of each particle PGGG1 ~ Pgg2g, and records it in the data logger 1 °. It is also used as the shell material when the elapsed time Ti (t) = 40 seconds (the second calculation cycle) after discharge. The spatial coordinates (xi (t = 40)), yi (t = 40), Zi (t = 40) of each particle ρ〇〇〇ι ～ p⑼20, and the elapsed time after discharge (TRt) = 40 seconds, and each Particles P20 () 1 to p202. The space coordinates (xi (t = 40)), yi (t = 40), Z1 (t = 40), and the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after discharge are recorded in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 3). Here, 'the spatial coordinates (xi (t = 40)), yi (t — 40), Z1 (t = 4〇) of each particle P0001 ~ P〇, and the elapsed time D after the discharge ...) = seconds Let ’s use 85181.doc -26-200424905 to subtract from the current time 40 seconds, the time elapsed after the discharge of 01 20 pieces, beer Tl⑴ = 40 seconds, and find the time elapsed after the discharge of each particle Poo0 ~ Poo. The time elapsed after the discharge Ti⑴ = 〇 seconds. In addition, from the discharge intensity data shown in FIG.

After the discharge time from Poo01 to Poo20, the intensity of discharge source was 0.3 when the elapsed time Ti (t) was two seconds, steep, and J υ seconds. Similarly, read each particle ~ 01 ~ ρ. . Each space coordinate of 20 (xi (t = 40)) 'yi (t = 40), zi (t = 40)' and elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴ = 20 seconds' is subtracted from the current time 40 seconds after discharge Time Ding Ming = 20 seconds, find the dark time, obedience, obedience, and elapsed time that each particle P20G1 ~ P2020 occurred.

Ti⑴ = 20 seconds. Further, from the emission intensity data shown in Fig. 6, the emission source intensity 0.5 when the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after the emission of the particles p2001 to p2020 is obtained is 0.5. In addition, corresponding to each space coordinate of each particle P: ~ P0020 (〇 = 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), zi (t = 40), and elapsed time after discharge D 丁 = 40 seconds , And the emission source intensity of each particle P00 ~ P00 is 0 3, and then recorded in the data logger. In addition, corresponding to each space coordinate of each particle ρ2〇ι ～ p2〇2 (⑽ = 4〇)), river ^ 40! ^ ^ 40), and the elapsed time after discharge Ή⑴ = 20 seconds, and the emission source intensity 0 · 5 of each particle P2 0 ~, and recorded in the data recorder b. In addition, when the elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴ = 60 seconds (the 3 calculation cycles) data, corresponding to each space coordinate (xi (t = 60)), yi (t = 60), Z1 (t = 6〇) of 20 corresponding to each particle 0 and the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 60 seconds, and each spatial coordinate (xi (t = 6〇)), yi (t = 6〇),

85181.doc -27- 200424905 (t 6〇), and elapsed time Ti⑴ = 40 seconds after discharge, and each space coordinate (xi (t = 6〇)), yi of each particle p, ~ p4〇2〇, yi (t = 6〇), 20) and elapsed time Ti (t) = 20 seconds after discharge, and recorded in the data redundancy recording device 1 (see FIG. 4). Here, the space coordinates of each particle P: ~ p0020 are given: t = 60, y (60) Zi (t = 60), and elapsed time 后 60 seconds after discharge, borrow From the current time t = 60 seconds, the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 卿, after cutting out is subtracted, and the elapsed time in seconds after the discharge of each particle P: ι ~ pjo is obtained. Moreover, as shown in the discharge intensity data shown in FIG. 6, “the discharge source intensity is the same when the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 〇 seconds after the discharge of the particles P: ~ 〇 occurs, and the spaces of each particle P wide ~ p 2 0 2 0 are read out. Coordinate ㈣bu 6〇)), yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60) 'and elapsed time after discharge Ti (t) y0 seconds'. At the current time t = 60 seconds, subtract the elapsed time after discharge. The time Qiu Bu is seconds, to find the elapsed time Ti⑴ = _ &gt; after the time when each particle P '~ P2' occurred, and 'from the discharge intensity data shown in Fig. 6 to find the particle P2 when it occurs. 1 ~ P2. 2. The elapsed time Ti = 20 seconds after the discharge time. The source intensity is 0.5. Similarly, each particle P: ~ P4. 2 is read out of each space coordinate (60)), yi (t = 60) , Zi (t = 60), and the elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴ = 20 seconds '. By subtracting the elapsed time and seconds after discharge from the current time t = 60 seconds, find each particle P: ~ P4'. At the time of occurrence Elapsed time after discharge (Qiu) = 40 seconds. And 'from the discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6, find the birth particles P: 1 ~ P4. 2. elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴. 40 seconds:.; 85181.d oc -28- source intensity 0 · 9.. Also, corresponding to each space coordinate of each particle), y (60) zi (t 60) 'and elapsed time after discharge (Qiu) = seconds and each particle P: 1 The intensity of the emission source of ~ P 2 is 0 3, and then recorded in the data logger. In addition, corresponding to the spatial coordinates of each particle P2001 ~ p2020 (Qiu =), y (t 60) zi ( t-60), the elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴ = second, and the intensity of the discharge source of each particle P20 P2〇5, and then recorded in the data logger • In addition, corresponding to each space coordinate of each particle P: ~ p4〇2〇 (⑽ = 6〇)), yi (t = 6〇), Zi (t = 60), and elapsed time after discharge ^ ⑴ = 20 seconds and the emission source intensity of each particle P4 ′ ~ P402〇 is 0.9, and then recorded in The data recorder performs the same processing calculations even in the subsequent calculation cycles, corresponding to the spatial coordinates of each child, and the elapsed time Ti⑴ ′ and each grain after discharge; the intensity of the discharge source is recorded in the data recording device. Second, A detailed description of the processing of the third step (refer to FIG. 1). For example, when the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 120 seconds after discharge, calculate the discharge source S as shown in FIG. The concentration of the substances in the predetermined grid area (unit space forming a unit volume) of W and K is increased by the data logger, and the particles existing in the grid area after the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 120 seconds are discharged. When read, such as Figure 7 shows the existence of particles. By accumulating the emission source intensity of these particles, the concentration of the substance in the unit space can be calculated. That is, in the spacer region shown in Figure 7, there are: 85181.doc- 29- 200424905 The intensity is 0. The particle size of 4 of 3, p 匕 05, pQQl0, p ^ o; the intensity is 0. Three of the five particles p2Q0i, p2Q07,; the intensity is 0. 2 of 9 particles p4OG8, ρ "ι〇; and 1 of particle 6 p6Qi7; for this purpose, by accumulating the intensity of the source of these particles next, the unit can be counted out The concentration of matter in space is 5 · 1. (0 · 3 X 4) + (0.5 X 3) + (〇 · 9 X 2) + (〇 · 6 X 1) = 5.1. If the general (mathematical) description The aforementioned first embodiment is as follows. In the first embodiment, as shown in FIG. 8, when a substance (gas, etc.) is discharged from the exhaust source s, the time under the wind of the exhaust source s is predicted in accordance with the change in time. The material concentration (gas concentration) of the grid regions I, J, and K. Moreover, as shown in FIG. 9 (a), 'in the case of a fixed amount of material Q-determined, needless to say as shown in FIG. 9 (b)' Prediction of the time variation of the concentration in the calculation grid area, as shown in Fig. 10 (a), even if the discharge amount of the substance is the time-change discharge amount q⑴, as shown in Fig. 1G (b), the calculation of the calculation grid area can also be predicted. Concentration time changes. In the first embodiment, first, even if the amount of the substance actually discharged from the discharge source S is constant, the amount of discharge elapses with time. In the case of chemical conversion, first, let the discharge amount Q (m3 / sec) of the substance be a fixed value (= 10), and use the previous month 'J &lt; Lagranglan particle diffusion model to replace the substance with particles 9 by the emission source S so that every second N particles occur, and the dynamics of each particle are calculated numerically, and the space coordinates (xi⑴, yi⑴, zi⑴) showing the position of the particles are obtained. Further, in addition to the space coordinates (xi (t), yi⑴, zi) of the information that each particle has (t)) At each economic cycle Δt, the elapsed time Ti (t) after the elapse of time from the time when the particles first occurred 85181.doc -30-327 200424905 is recorded in the data recording device. With this, using the previous Lagrangian particle diffusion model, it is possible to measure the time variation of the concentration distribution of all discharges q (t) over time. To this end, set the amount of discharge q (t) of the substance proportional to the time change. Shows the data on the emission source of the particles as the time elapses with the elapsed time Ti (t) after discharge. Moreover, at a certain time (0, the data memory device reads out the space coordinates showing the position of the 2 particles (xi (t ), Yi (t), Zi (t)) and The time elapses after discharge Ti (t). In the case of a certain discharge amount (Q =: L0), although the intensity of the discharge source of each particle is Q / N (m3) = l / N, the discharge amount q changes with time. In the case of (t), the intensity of the emission source of each particle forms q (t-Ti) / N (m3). Once again, except for the spatial coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), Zi⑴) of the information that each particle has In addition, at each time ⑴, the elapsed time Ti⑴ after discharge and the emission source intensity qi (t-Ti) / N (m3) of each particle are recorded on the data recording device. In this embodiment, the discharge source intensity q (t ~ Ti) / N (m3) corresponding to the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and the elapsed time after discharge, and the discharge quantity q with time change, because in the unit volume in space ( Each particle of air lm3) has a different emission source intensity, so the cumulative emission source intensity qi (t-Ti) / N (m3) of Σ qi (t-Ti) / N (m3) is accumulated in this particle. Gas in a unit volume. Therefore, the gas concentration in the air becomes Σ # (t-Ti) / N (m3) / N (gas m3 / air m3). <Second embodiment (when there are many discharge sources)> There are many (j) discharge sources, and each discharge source has a time variation of 85181.doc -31-2004249 05 The same discharge amount (qj (t) ) Exhaust matter, plus the first! The particle information (position, time elapsed after release) of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model used in the embodiment can perform the same function as the first embodiment by holding each particle's identification information (si) of the emission source. For example, as shown in FIG. 11, in a case where there are two discharge sources s 丨 and S2, the particles discharged from the discharge source S1 hold the discharge source identification information sl, and the particles discharged from the discharge source S2 hold the discharge source identification. Information s2. Furthermore, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model is used to replace the substance with particles, and the particles from the two emission sources SI and S2 are generated every second] particles. The dynamics of each particle are calculated numerically, and the space coordinates (xi (t ), Yi⑴, zi (t)). Further, in addition to the spatial coordinates of the information that each particle has, yi⑴, Z1 (t)), it holds the elapsed time Ti⑴ from the elapsed time of the time when the particle originally occurred, and the source identification information sl, s2. . As shown in Figure i2 (a), the discharge amount Q discharged by the discharge sources SI and S2 is regarded as a blade (= 1). Using the previous Lagrangian particle diffusion model, the figure shown in Figure 12 (b) is obtained. The concentration of the substances in the grid areas j,], and κ changes over time and is recorded in advance. Secondly, as shown by the dotted line in FIG. 13 (a), the discharge amount of the substance discharged by the discharge source S1 is shown in FIG. 13 (a). When the application mode is the same, the intensity of the particle emission source is taken as q1 (t). And 1, for each particle, the intensity of the emission source is set according to the intensity ql of the emission source at the time when the particle occurred. As a result, by accumulating the emission source identification information sl in the desired lattice region υ, κ ′, the intensity of the emission source of the particles, the concentration of the substance 85181.doc -32- 329 200424905 that is emitted by the emission source can be obtained ( (Substance concentration of desired lattice areas i, j, κ) over time. Similarly, if the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the discharge source S2 is q2 (t), the intensity of the discharge source of the particles is the same as that of the first embodiment for the particles released from the discharge source S1. As q2 (t). Further, for each particle, the emission source intensity is set with reference to the emission source intensity q2 (t) at the time when the particle occurred. As a result, by accumulating the emission source intensity of the particles having the emission source identification information s2 in the desired lattice region, κ, the concentration of the substance discharged from the emission source S2 (the desired lattice region, K The concentration of substances) over time. In this way, by adding the time change of the concentration of the substance discharged from the discharge source 81 and the time change of the concentration of the substance discharged from the discharge source S2, the concentration of the substance in the desired grid region I, J, K can be obtained. &lt; Third embodiment &gt; The third embodiment is a method of calculating the current status and future concentration distribution in a short time based on the actual measurement result of the gas discharge volume after a gas leakage accident. The diffusion plan such as the impact assessment of the environment does not need to be calculated in the case of emergency. Therefore, the gas discharge amount q (t) is determined over time, and the gas is implemented in a few days and two months. In the case of an emergency such as a gas leak accident, it is necessary to take emergency measures against the surrounding residents, so it is necessary to output the results of the diffusion calculation in a short time. As shown in this case, according to the 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution at each moment, S5181.doc -33- 200424905 () () (c) shows the same Lagrangiar ^^ sub-diffusion model as the first embodiment, 24 hours Continuously implement a certain release rate (Q = 丨) in advance. After the gas leakage accident, the actual gas discharge amount q (t) is measured by a gas concentration measuring device or the like installed at the outlet of the smoke source II! According to the actual gas discharge amount Vt), by setting the emission source intensity q (t) of each particle, in the same way as in the first embodiment, it is possible to modify and calculate the concentration-time change corresponding to the gas discharge amount (see FIG. 14 (( 1) (6)). That is, for each particle, set the emission source intensity with reference to the emission source intensity q (t) at the time when the particle occurred (Fig. 14 (d)). Also, in the desired grid area Ix], κ, by accumulating the intensity of the emission source of the particles existing in its area, the time change of the concentration of the substance (the desired substance concentration in the grid region) can be obtained from the emission source S. Also, the future The gas emission volume is equal to or equal to the actual measured gas emission volume q (t), or calculated according to the prediction formula set by other methods. The current and future 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution is used as a calculation method. From the meteorological bureau and other regular wide-area grid (20km) meteorological data (GPV: Grid Point Value), the wide-area weather forecast model (RAMS, MM5, etc.) is used to calculate the detailed grid (several kilometers to several 1 · ) Meteorological Resources Direction, Wind Speed, Temperature) Changes in the method. &lt; Fourth embodiment &gt; The fourth embodiment is a method of calculating the current amount of gas ^ in a short period of time based on the results of the concentration around the leaked space after a gas leak accident. ^ The occurrence of a gas leakage accident is shown in Figure 15 (a). As shown in Figure 15 (a), 85181.doc -34- 200424905, the source of the gas leakage source S, is difficult to measure. Using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment, the temporal change of the concentration measured at the observation point (xk) around the leaked space can be used to estimate the discharge amount q (t) in a short time. Before the leakage accident, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment is used to calculate the concentration (Ck⑴ calculation) of a certain surrounding observation point (xk) in advance with a certain discharge amount (Q = 1) (see FIG. 15 (b)) ( (See Fig. 15 (c)). The concentration (calculated by Ck (t)) is centered on the observation point (xk), and consists of particles (η) existing in 3 degrees Xuanjian fa and (△ XX △ y X △ z), followed by the formula (10) The calculator.

Ck (t) calculation = n X X Q (t_ τι) / ν / (α χχ △ y X △ z) · · (1〇) In this case, the discharge amount Q (t- Ti) is a certain value. "Second, Measure the concentration-time change at the observation point (Xk) (ck (t) observation), and use the formula (10) to find the formula (11). (Ck (t) observation) = n〇x Eq0 (t-0) / N / (AxXAyxAz) + nix

Zql (t- ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ ΔγχΔζ) + η2Χ Eq2 (t-2 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + η3 × Σς3 (ΐ-3 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + η4 × Zq4 (t-4 · ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + + η 1 X Σ ql (t —ΐ) / Ν / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + C0 (t) ... .. ..... ⑴) Here, 'nl, η2, η3, and nl are particles that are released 0 seconds before, △ T seconds, (Δτχ2) seconds, (ΔΤχ3) seconds, and t seconds before the start of the discharge. xk) is the total number of particles whose center exists in 3 degree space volume (△ XX △ y X △ ζ) 85181.doc -35- 200424905. In addition, “co (t)” is called the background concentration, and the concentration that is released from the source of discharge as a calculation object, and exists regardless of the observation site, varies by a certain value or time t. q0, qb, q2, q3, and ql are the release rates from 0 seconds before t seconds, At seconds before, (△ TX2) seconds, (ΔTX3) seconds, and t (ATX1) seconds before.

Ck (t) observation is a continuous measurement for 24 hours, so from the time of leakage to 0 seconds later, △ T seconds, (△ TX2) seconds, (△ τχ3) seconds, and ΐ (ΔΤ X 1) seconds. After that, more than (1 + 1) can be measured. In addition, when there are k observation points xk, k X (1 + 1) observation data can be obtained. Since the unknown number of formula (11) has q0, ql, q2, #, and (1 + 1) of 0, and the known number Ck⑴ observation has more than kx (l + 1), the unknown number is less than the known number. In this case, the minimum automultiplication method can be used to determine the unknowns q0, ql, q2, q3, and ql, so as to minimize the minimum multiplication error for the observed concentration (^ ⑴ observation. Also, FIG. 16 shows the calculation of the fourth embodiment. Flow chart of the status. &Lt; Fifth embodiment &gt; The fifth embodiment is, for example, after a gas leak accident, based on the actual measurement result of the leaked area, the current gas discharge amount is estimated in a short time, and the concentration is calculated. Method of distribution. According to the fourth embodiment, the time variation of the concentration (Ck (t) observation) measured from the observation point (xk) around the leaked space, using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment, Estimate the discharge amount over time. 85181 .doc -36- 200424905 As shown in Fig. 17, before the leakage accident occurs, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment is used, and calculated in advance at a certain release rate (q = 1). Discard the concentration of a certain surrounding observation point (xk) (calculated by Ck (t)). The concentration (calculated by Ck (t)) is centered on the observation point (xk), and exists in a 3 degree space volume (△ XX △ y X △ z The number of particles in) is calculated by the following formula (12).

Ck (t) calculation = n X 2Q (t-τί) / N / (ΔχχΔγχΔζ) (12) In this case, the release rate Q (t-Ti) is a certain value (= 1). Next, measure the concentration-time change at the observation point (xk) (ck (t) observation), and use the formula (12) to find the formula (13).

(Ck⑴ observation) = n OX Zq0 (t-0) / N / (Δχχ Ayx n 1 X

Zql (t- ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + n2X Sq2 (t-2 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + n3X Zq3 (t-3 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + n4X Zq4 (t-4 · ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + ...... + n 1 X Σql (t-ΐ) / Ν / (ΔxX AyX Δζ) + C0 (t) .. .............. (13) Here, nl, n2, n3, and nl are 0 seconds before the release, △ T seconds before, (△ TX2) seconds before, (△ TX3) The total number of particles existing in the 3 degree space volume (△ XX △ y X △ z) with the observation point (xk) as the center of the particles before and t seconds. In addition, C0 (t) is called the background concentration, and the concentration existing at the 'supply observation site' released from outside the discharge source as a calculation target changes by a certain value or time t. 85181.doc -37- 334 200424905 q0, ql, q2, q3, and ql are 0 seconds before t seconds, △ τ seconds before, (△ Τχ2) seconds, (ΔΤχ3) seconds, and t (ATXl ) Release rate before seconds.

The Ck (t) observation is a continuous measurement for 24 hours, so from the time when the leak started to 0 seconds, △ T seconds, (△ TX2) seconds, (△ TX3) seconds, and (△ T XI) seconds. , Can measure more than (1 + 1). When there are k observation points xk, observation data of k X (1 + 1) can be obtained. Since the unknowns in formula (13) have (1 + 1) of q0, ql, q2, q3, and ql, and the known number Ck (t) has more than kX (l + 1) observations, the unknowns are less than the known numbers . In this case, the minimum multiplication method can be used to determine the unknowns q0, ql, q2, q3, and ql to minimize the minimum multiplication error for the observed concentration Ck (t). Using the estimated values q0, q1, q2, q3, and q1, if correction calculation of concentration time change is performed by the method of the first embodiment, the concentration distribution of each elapsed time can be calculated. &lt; Sixth embodiment &gt; A sixth embodiment is a system for providing a system for calculating the current status and future concentration distribution results in a short period of time after the occurrence of a gas leak accident, based on the actual measurement results of emissions. In the case of an emergency such as a gas leak accident, since it is necessary to take emergency measures for the evacuation of the surrounding residents, it is necessary to output the diffusion measurement results within a short time. However, since such a leak accident does not know when it will occur, the fire prevention, police, and local governments and factories of the supervisory office must use a computer system to manage this. 85181.doc -38- 200424905 In this management operation, since it requires more labor and costs and advanced computer operation technology, it has difficulties in management operation except for the organization of a permanent large-scale crisis management system. Therefore, it is proposed to use the information supply system of the recent Internet as a method to remedy the problem. In this sixth embodiment, as shown in the figure! As shown in Figure 8, the Supervisory Office of the Superintendent's Office of Fire, Police, and Local Government, etc., and the factories of the company's factories, 丨 0, are located in other locations. In the security analysis center 12, information transmission methods such as the Internet are used to receive meteorological observation data transmitted by meteorological data transmission facilities such as meteorological listening, etc., and usually use a large computer for calculation, based on 3 degrees at each time The spatial wind speed distribution is based on the same Lagrangian particle diffusion model as in the first embodiment. The diffusion calculation of a certain release rate (Q = 1) is performed continuously for 24 hours in advance. After a gas leakage accident, if the gas concentration measuring device installed at the chimney exit of the company 11 knows the measured gas emission amount q (t), the gas emission amount q is transmitted via an information transmission means such as the Internet. To the security analysis center 12. As described above, in the safety analysis center 12, the change in concentration time corresponding to the gas release rate can be corrected and calculated in the same manner as in the i-th embodiment. The Security Analysis Center 12 sends the calculated concentration calculation results to the Superintendent Office 1 () of the police and local government. The Supervisory Office M issued an evacuation advisory to the enterpriser 11 and the residents 14 around the industrial waste because of 7 &gt; Chendu. Output: The gas emission rate from t is the measured reading as the actual situation… q t value, or calculated according to the prediction formula set by other methods. 85181.doc -39- 200424905 In the case of an enterpriser 11 with a large number of nights, the calculation shown in the second embodiment is performed in the security analysis center 12 to predict the concentration-time change. As a method of calculating the current and future 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution, a wide-area grid (GPV · Grid Point VaIue) that is circulated by the Meteorological Agency 13 and other regular stations is used. Wide-area weather forecasting model (RAMS MM5, etc.) 'Calculates the time variation of meteorological data (wind direction, wind speed, air temperature) in a detailed grid (number ^ ~ number 10 claws). Effect of the invention Specifically, in order to predict the diffusion state of the diffusive substance of the present invention, in order to predict the state of diffusion of the substance discharged into the atmosphere from the exhaust source into the atmosphere, the above-mentioned substance f is replaced with a large number of particles and set to be discharged by The position of the source generates a predetermined number of particles in each calculation cycle; and the multiple locations in the area containing the position of the source are displayed by changing the wind direction and wind speed field data over time, and substituting them into Calculate the diffusion equation of the particle's diffusion state, find the diffusion speed of each particle, and use this diffusion speed to find the space that shows the spatial position of each particle in each calculation cycle And the measured elapsed time from the elapsed time from the point in time when the aforementioned particles first occurred, corresponding to the space coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle, which are recorded in the data logger in advance; The ratio is proportional to the change in the amount of discharge that elapses with the passage of time after the elapsed time of the discharged substance, and the data of the intensity of the emission source of the particles is set in advance as the time elapses after the discharge; 85181.doc -40- 200424905 Read out the coordinates of each particle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle recorded in each calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device, and refer to the elapsed time after the discharge from the shell to find the time when each particle occurred. The intensity of the emission source of each particle at that point in time is obtained from the aforementioned intensity data of the emission source, and the two coordinates corresponding to each particle of each calculation cycle and the elapsed time and emission source of each particle are recorded in the aforementioned data recording device. Intensity; Also, the concentration of the aforementioned substances in a given area of a given calculation period is accumulated in the given The intensity of the emission source of all the particles in the predetermined area in the calculation cycle is obtained. For this reason, even if the amount emitted by the emission source is different, the concentration of the substance in a specific area can be calculated in a short time. The method for predicting the diffusion state of diffusive substances is to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from most emission sources into the atmosphere. The foregoing substances are replaced with a large number of particles, and the positions of each emission source are set for each calculation. Pre-specified number of particles are generated in each cycle; and in multiple locations within the area containing the location of the emission source, wind speed field data showing wind direction and wind speed will be displayed over time, and will be used to calculate the diffusion of particles. The diffusion equation is used to find the diffusion speed of each particle. From the diffusion speed, the spatial coordinates showing the two positions where each particle exists in each calculation cycle are calculated, and the discharge from the elapsed time from the time when the aforementioned particles first occur is measured. The elapsed time corresponds to the spatial coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle. Time and discharge source '^ The discharge source identification information is recorded in advance in the data logger; 85181.doc -41-200424905 Also' proportion is the change in the amount of discharge that elapses with the passage of time after the discharge of substances discharged from each discharge source, Each discharge source is set in advance to record the discharge intensity data of the particles with the elapsed time after discharge; Λ ', and the space of each particle recorded in each calculation period of the aforementioned data recording device is read out Coordinates, elapsed time after discharge of each particle, and identification information of discharge source of each particle ', and referring to the elapsed time after reading out, find out the time point of each particle occurrence, and refer to the read out identification information of the discharge source, and refer to the corresponding particle occurrence &lt;; The above-mentioned emission source intensity data of the emission source is used to find the particle occurrence &lt; point &quot; the intensity of the emission source of each particle, in the aforementioned record, corresponding to each calculation week, and then different U period &lt; space weight of each weight The elapsed time and intensity of the source after the discharge of the target and each grain; and the concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a predetermined calculation cycle is accumulated by The intensity of the emission source of all particles in the predetermined area in the predetermined calculation period is obtained. For this reason, even if the amount discharged from the discharge source is different, the concentration of the substance in a specific area can be calculated in a short time. In addition, the material is discharged from most of the sources, and the concentration of the substance can also be calculated correctly. In addition, the present invention &lt; prediction method for the diffusion state of diffusing substances, wherein the intensity data of the front and exhaust sources is obtained by measuring the concentration of the substance actually discharged from the aforementioned exhaust source and setting it. = The aforementioned "source strength material, the above-mentioned observation of the emission of the ㈣ ㈣" accounted for the time variation of the concentration of the substance is set as the basis. For this reason, even if the concentration of the substance discharged from the exhaust source is not previously obtained 8518l.doc -42- 339 200424905 data, you can also use the measured data to calculate the concentration. In addition, the 'diffusion state of the diffusive substance of the present invention: a prediction system, which includes: the enterpriser, when the diffusive substance is discharged When printed to Dazhong, the concentration of the diffusive substance was measured, and the data showing the discharge amount of the diffusive substance was sent out; the meteorological data communication facility is the meteorological observation data; the Superintendent's Office is for the aforementioned enterprises and the aforementioned enterprises. Residents in the surrounding area will notify the evacuation advisory; and Wenwang Analysis Center will perform calculations on the scope of patent application No. 丨 or 2 and calculate the concentration of substances in a predetermined area; Data on the discharge of diffusive substances and meteorological observation data from the aforementioned meteorological data communication facilities are transmitted by means of information transmission; In the Narrative Supervision Office, the concentration of the substance from the aforementioned safety analysis center is transmitted by means of information transmission; and the Narration &amp; Governor's Office is to notify the evacuation advisory based on the concentration of the transmitted substance. Based on the information calculated by the Security Analysis Center, the Supervisory Office can quickly issue evacuation advice, and can take emergency evacuation measures for surrounding residents. The diagram briefly illustrates the calculation of the first embodiment of the present invention. The flow chart of the process. Fig. 2 is an explanatory diagram illustrating the diffusion state of the particles of the first embodiment of the present invention. 85181.doc -43-200424905 Fig. 3 shows the particles of the first embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a diffusion state of particles according to the first embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 5 is a characteristic diagram showing an example of the temporal change of the discharge amount of π shellfish. FIG. 6 is A characteristic diagram showing an example of the intensity of the emission source showing the temporal change in the amount of the emission of the corresponding substance. Fig. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing the particle distribution in a predetermined grid region. Fig. 8 is a graph showing the emission source and An explanatory diagram of the sub-regions. Fig. 9 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge volume and the concentration in the case of the discharge volume ^ li- 疋. Fig. 10 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge volume and the time. Discharge volume and concentration Figure 11 shows the relationship between the discharge volume and the concentration of two rows of mountains, R ^, the source and the grid area. Figure 12 shows the relationship between the discharge volume ^ ^ _ F ® I and I Fig. 13 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge volume and the concentration of bismuth in a time-dependent manner. Fig. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing the shape of the third tone ρ ^ coin. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing the 4th form of the fourth ♦ a ang. Figure 16 is a flowchart showing the calculation process of the present invention, &gt; dagger 0 &lt; The flow of the calculation flow of the fifth embodiment of the Ming Dynasty 85181.doc -44- 200424905 Fig. 18 is a system configuration diagram showing the system of the sixth embodiment. FIG. 19 is an explanatory view showing a diffusion state of particles of the prior art. FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing a diffusion state of particles of the prior art. FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing a diffusion state of particles of the prior art. FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing a particle distribution of a predetermined lattice region by a worker. FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram showing functions of a particle diffusion model. FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing a discharge source and a grid area. Fig. 25 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge amount and the concentration when the discharge amount changes with time. Fig. 26 is a characteristic diagram showing the discharge volume and the system. Relation between discharge volume and concentration in the case of walking Fig. 27 is a characteristic diagram showing the discharge system and the displacement in the case of the moment. Representation of the symbols in the figure The relationship between the output and the concentration

Claims (1)

200424905 Scope of patent application: 1. A method for predicting the diffusion state of diffusive substances. In order to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from an exhaust source into the atmosphere, the foregoing substances are replaced with a large number of particles, and set as The position of the emission source occurs in a predetermined number of particles in each calculation cycle; and the multiple locations in the area containing the position of the emission source will display the wind direction and wind speed field data over time, Substituting into the diffusion equation of the diffusive state of the calculated particles, the diffusion speed of each particle is obtained, and the spatial coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle at each calculation cycle are obtained from the diffusion speed, and the time point at which the aforementioned particles first occur is measured. The elapsed time after the elapsed time corresponds to the spatial coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the evacuation of each particle are recorded in advance in the data logger; in addition, the ratio is proportional to the elapsed time following the evacuation of the discharged substance. The change of the discharge volume over time is set in advance as the elapsed time after discharge The time passes the intensity source data of the particles; and reads out the space coordinates of each particle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle recorded in each calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device, and refers to the elapsed time after the read out. Time, the time point at which each particle occurred is obtained, the emission source intensity of each particle at that time point is obtained from the above-mentioned emission source intensity data, and the S-coordinate and each of the particles corresponding to each calculation period are recorded in the aforementioned data recording device. The elapsed time and the intensity of the source after the particles are discharged; and, the concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a sufficient calculation period is 85181.doc 2004249 05 degrees, which is accumulated in the predetermined area of the predetermined calculation period. The exhaust source intensity of all particles was obtained. 2. A method for predicting the diffusion state of diffusive substances. In order to predict the diffusion of substances released into the atmosphere from most plutonium emission sources, the seven substances are replaced with a large number of particles, and the positions are set by each emission source. Pre-set number of particles are generated in each calculation cycle; and in multiple locations within the area containing the location of the emission source, the wind direction and wind speed field data will be displayed over time, and substituted into the secondary calculation. The diffusion equation of the particle's diffusion state is used to find the diffusion speed of each particle. From this diffusion speed, the space coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle in each calculation cycle are obtained, and the passage of time from the time when the aforementioned particles first occur is measured. The elapsed time after the discharge of time corresponds to identifying the space coordinates of each particle in each remaining calculation period and the discharge source identification information of the time gate and the discharge source after the discharge of each particle, which are recorded in advance in the data recorder; Elapsed time after discharge of substances discharged from each discharge source In each discharge source, the intensity data of the discharge source of the particles is set in advance with the elapsed time after discharge; the person continues to place the green coordinates on the space coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle of the recordable data recording device. And the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle: each material discharges source information, and refers to the read out row_elapsed time to find the point at which each particle occurred, and refers to the read out source identification information to determine the occurrence of the corresponding particle. The intensity of the emission source of each particle at the point when the particle occurred when the aforementioned emission source intensity data of the emission source are grown, and the above-mentioned resource 85181.doc 344 200424905 recording device then records the spatial coordinates and particles of each particle corresponding to each calculation period The elapsed time after discharge and the intensity of the discharge source, and the concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a sufficient calculation period is the discharge source of all particles accumulated in the predetermined area in the predetermined calculation period. Find the strength. 3. For the method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusive substance in the scope of application for patent application item 丨 or 2, the above-mentioned emission source intensity data is obtained by measuring the concentration of the substance actually discharged from the aforementioned emission source and setting it. 4. For example, the method for predicting the diffusion state of the diffuser f in the scope of patent application No. 142, wherein the intensity information of the emission source is based on the time variation of the concentration of the substance measured at the observation points around the emission source. 5 · —The diffusion status prediction system of a diffusive substance, which includes ... Enterprisers, when the diffusive substance is discharged into the atmosphere, the actual concentration of the diffusive substance is measured, and the information showing the discharge amount of the diffusive substance is sent; The communication facility is the communication meteorological observation data; the supervisory office is the notification of evacuation advice to the aforementioned enterprises and the surrounding residents of the aforementioned enterprises; and the reasoning and calculation of the concentration of substances in a predetermined area; The above-mentioned enterprisers display the data of the expansion = emission volume, and the air view from the above-mentioned meteorological data communication device is transmitted by means of information transmission; The degree is transmitted by means of information transmission; 85181.doc 200424905 Furthermore, the aforementioned supervisory office has notified the evacuation advisory in accordance with the concentration of the transmitted substance. 85181.doc