TWI227434B - Prediction method and system of gas diffusion - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention predicts the diffusion condition of diffusible substance released to atmosphere. Replace the diffusible substance by particle, obtain the moving location of the resulting particle from the source by computation and log beforehand by mapping the moving location and the elapsed time after release. Next, based on the elapsed time and refer to the said intensity data to obtain the particle intensity of the occurring time so that the moving location, the elapsed time after release and intensity correspond to each particle and log beforehand. Calculate the concentration in the specified area at the specified time so as to obtain the particle intensity presenting in the specified area by accumulation.

Description

1227434 (ii) Description of the invention: TECHNICAL FIELD The present invention relates to a method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance. The present invention predicts how substances (such as radioactive substances and smoke) discharged into the atmosphere from diffusion sources (such as radioactive material use facilities and smoke islands) will diffuse into the atmosphere, and the substances will change from time to time when predictions are made at various locations. Concentrated. The prior art is currently developing a situation in which radioactive materials are discharged to the outside from facilities handling radioactive materials due to accidents, predicting the spread of radioactive materials and the concentration of radioactive materials at various locations, and predicting the risk of danger due to radioactive materials. Method for predicting the spread of the region. This diffusion state prediction method is applicable not only to the h-shape for predicting the diffusion state of radioactive materials, such as the case where the gas (smoke) discharged from the chimney of the workplace diffuses into the atmosphere, the case where the gas concentration at each place is calculated, and In the analysis of the environmental impact assessment, the situation of analyzing the diffusion state of the diffusing substance can also be applied. Calculations to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere must be followed by two calculations. (ΌGas condition prediction calculation (2) Diffusion condition prediction calculation The so-called (1) above-mentioned gas condition prediction calculation is based on meteorological observations such as GPV (Gnd Point Value) and AMEDAS, etc., and the calculation is based on partial differential analysis of atmospheric phenomena Equation, from the time of the occurrence of events (such as the discharge of radioactive materials to the outside) to the point after a predetermined time, by calculation to find the wind direction • wind speed for most of the evaluation points (lattice point positions) at each time point of the 85181.doc 1227434 fixed time scale That is, it means the calculation of the gas state representing the wind speed field data at each time scale. In addition, the above-mentioned (2) diffusion state prediction calculation refers to the concentration and properties of the released diffusive substance and the foregoing The wind speed field data is substituted into the diffusion equation of the diffusion state of the matter (particles) to calculate the concentration of the diffusive matter at each grid point position at each time scale. ≪ Explanation of gas state prediction calculation > First, the outline of the prediction and calculation of gas conditions will be described. Meteorological observation data, such as meteorological GPV data, are supported by the meteorological service. The center communicates every 12 hours. The meteorological GPV data extends along the north-south direction of the earth's surface and the distance between the east and west directions is a majority of the specified distance (2km). The meteorological data (wind speed vector (wind direction, wind speed) , Air pressure, temperature, moisture content). And meteorological GPV materials, which are the sum of the information such as the time of the message, from the time of the message 3 hours later, 6 hours later, 9 hours of 3 hours interval of 51 hours of data, as each parent The meteorological data of the grid point location. The above meteorological GPV data of the meteorological grid point location ’s meteorological data, because the distance between the grid positions of the mother grid on the workshop is extended to, and the time is extended to 3 hours interval, so only the parent is borrowed. The meteorological data at the location of the grid points does not allow data on gas conditions (wind direction, wind speed), that is, wind speed field data, to calculate diffused matter 85181.doc 1227434 For this reason, it is necessary to analyze the partial differential equations of atmospheric phenomena, from the spatially and temporally coarser meteorological observations, to obtain denser spatially and temporally denser gases. The condition (wind direction, wind speed). Here, the position of the sub-lattice point is set between the positions of the mother lattice points set in the area to be calculated (a specific area set in advance on the surface of the earth). The position of the sub-lattice points is arranged on the earth The surface of the earth extends with the north-south direction and the distance between the east and west directions is a certain distance (50m). The majority of the weft vacation line 'and the surface of the earth extend with the east-west direction and the distance between the north-south direction is a certain distance. (50m) The place where most people want to cross the line on vacation. Moreover, the partial differential equations of atmospheric phenomena are analyzed by differential analytical calculations, and meteorological data of the positions of the child lattice points and the positions of the mother lattice points at a certain time scale (for example, every 20 second interval) from the start of the calculation are obtained. Can use Coro

The basic equation of wind speed% analysis shown by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Moulding System) code developed by Laxichuaner University and Mission Research Company is used as a partial differential equation for analyzing atmospheric phenomena. The basic equations of wind speed field analysis shown by the RAMS code are formed by the private equation of motion, the equation of thermal energy, the equation of diffusion of water, and the continuous < formula, which are expressed as the following formulas (1) to (6) . [Number 1] 85181.doc 1227434 Equation of motion ^ i5 / 5v ¥ r ^ ar 3 {Lry Mr-^ ar5v & ^ / JIN VA, 3- & ^ arwlay 5U & 5V & * 15v5v ^ J aw & avjax / i / \-/, (· su ^ fs ^, lr ·-/: I si ^ 1 (1) (2 (3) thermal energy equation dt -li · w- dx 8y dz dx

Kh V 3 —H -— * dx) dy (4) f rod Water diffusion equation

Srn dt δχ .5 /-9 --h — 3z dx

Kh d dx • at 4) (5) continuous equation 3π '^ Rttq f dp ^ 0ou t dpQ0Qv t dpti6Qw'] 3t ^, P〇 ^ 〇L 〇x dy dz j (6) U, V, W ··· f: Coriolis • parameter km • eddy viscosity coefficient of motion kn: vortex diffusion coefficient of heat and moisture Qu • temperature of water (ice-water) temperature rn: mixing ratio of water such as rain and snow P: Density rad: Radiation (radiation) and kg R. Oxygen constant g: Gravitational acceleration P .., v. Foot product specific heat. 7Γ: Exner function.

Qv: temporary temperature bit P: pressure additional word 0 as a reference value, so the calculation is based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling 85181.doc -9-1227434 f) code _ not the basic equation of wind speed field analysis, opened by calculation

Mu obtains the wind direction vector data (Phoenix field data) showing the meteorological data set by each parent's position at a certain time scale (for example, every 20 second interval) and the meteorological data at the positions of the grid points of each child. < Outline description of diffusion status prediction calculation > The description will be based on the diffusion status prediction calculation. The calculation of the diffusion status is based on the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric ModeHng System) code, and the wind speed field data of the positions of the mother grid points and the positions of the child grid points every 20 seconds are obtained and substituted into Colorado. State University and

HYPACT (Hybrid Particle

Concentration Transport Model). As a specific example of the prediction calculation of the diffusion status, a Lagrangian particle diffusion model is used. This Lagrangian particle diffusion model uses the formulas (7) to (9) shown next to calculate the diffusion velocity (u,, ν ′, w ’) of particles, and moves each particle to 0. [Number 2]

The Lagrangian particle diffusion model uses the formulas (12) to (14) to calculate the diffusion speed of particles. II * (t) = Ru U. (Bu Δ0 + a-i〇ru v1 (t) = RvV (t-At) + aR;) rv) w1 (t) = Rw w4 (t _ ^ t) + ( 1-Rw) rw Here, the correlation coefficients of Ru, Rv, and Lagrangel flow itself are 85181.doc -10- 1227434 u '(t), v' (t), w'⑴: the turbulent diffusion velocity component of particles, t :time

Ru (^)-Rv (At) = u ^ t) u * (t — Δϋ) exp v '(t) · v' (t- At) exp w '(t) · (t-At) exp r ^ rJ △ t) T ^ rJ △ t) (3) Here, σ u, σ v, σ w: standard deviation of turbulent flow velocity Tlu, TLv, Tlw: Lagrange time scale ru = au7 / u, τν = σν7? ν, rw = crw77w + wd (c ?; Here, 77 u, v, 77 w ··· Normal random number (average value is 0)

Wd: The gravity settlement speed is here. The wind speed field data of each mother grid point position and each child grid point position calculated by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code every 20 seconds will be substituted into HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model). ) Code to explain a specific example of the prediction calculation for the diffusion status. In order to perform this calculation, the material discharged into the atmosphere from the emission source is replaced by a large number of particles P. From the position of the emission source to each calculation period Δ t (here Δ t = 20 seconds), N occurrences (in Here are 20) particles P. That is, 20 particles are generated in each calculation period Δt (20 seconds), so that 20 particles P are generated at the calculation start point, 20 particles are generated 20 seconds after the calculation start point, and from the calculation start point 85181.doc -11-1227434 particles of 20 occur after 40 seconds. In addition, in each calculation cycle, △ is cut for "seconds", and the position (space coordinate) of each particle P is calculated by calculation. 丄 In addition, Poo01, Pj2, Pqq〇3 P〇〇08, P〇〇09, d ι〇P0004, P 05 P〇o '' Po 001ϋ, Poo11, P0012, du 00, P〇〇t >, P〇〇07

Poo17, p00 P 14 15 F〇〇 Poo 18, 〇19, P0020

Poo16

The 20 particles p generated by Pi are displayed at the start point of the calculation (time 0 seconds). P2001, P2002, P P2009 > T, 11 03 20, P2004, P2005, P ,, d 〇7 p 06 ^ P20 , P20 p. 08, 〇—, P20p 19 ^ corpse 20, P20 particles p. P2018, P J9, D 20

P2〇12, P display 13 2〇 _, P2014, P2015, 1 > 16

P 20 20 20 P 17 π 20 to 40 minutes after the start of the calculation. P4001, P4〇2, P4〇3, p < 04 09, n 10 _ 11 "P4 (/ 'P4 ,, Pz Particle P. ^ 20 which occurs 40 seconds after the start of the calculation, that is, 'the difference is that it is displayed after the symbol "p" is the time from the start of the calculation and is displayed on the symbol: number, the number is in its At the point of time 2 ”, there are 玍 爻 20 particles in the upper segment. The particles are also represented. / 、 He occurs at the point of time. At the beginning of the calculation, 彳. 5 original occurrence of 20 particles ~ 〇1, ^ 40 '' -Ρ4〇05 Λ D 06 P4〇09, P4〇1〇, P4〇U, P4〇12, D 13 p 18 n [40 'P4〇19, P4020, display, P Η n 15 ▼, P4007, P4 〇〇8 Cut ... 'P4016, P4〇 ”

P 1 1 0 0, r00 ° 0, p: 5, V6, P0′P. . pf 20

Pnnl2'P0013'p0014'p0015'P0000, ~ 〇8, PO009, PO0016, PO0017, PO008, p0019 at After 20 seconds from the start of the calculation, 20 particles are generated from Figure 19? 〇ι, ρ 〇2 ~ Injustice discharge source S 7 Pull corpse 20, P2〇2, P2003, ρ04-20, P2〇5, P06

Source S 85181.doc -12- 07 1227434 1) d 09 -rv i 〇, 20 20 20, p2〇 ", P2. 12, P2013, p2014, p2015, p2. 16, p2017, P2018, P2019, p2020. At this point, the particles Po, Poo02, Poo03, P0 ° 04, and P0 () that occurred at the start of the calculation. 5. Pgg〇6, p00 ° 7, P0. . 8. p. . . 9. P. ,, P. . 11, P. . 12, P. . 13, P. . 14, P0015, P0 ,, p00n, p0018, p0019, ^^ from the source S to the exit position and spread. The setting of each t sub-P uses the wind speed field data obtained every 20 seconds on the scale of rams (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) to calculate the diffusion velocity of each particle p in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model (U, ,, v ', w,), which is obtained by moving each particle. After 40 seconds from the start of the surprise, 20 particles p4 () 01, p4 () 02, p03, 〇4, p were generated from the emission source s shown in FIG. 20

P 4〇08, P40 09 P4〇17 > P, 18 40 p 10 ^ 40, k p 19 ^ 40

P4011, P 40 12 40

P 13

4〇05, P4006, P 40 P40 P4020 At this time, the particle P0 occurred at the time of calculation start. 01, Poo02, Po. 03, P〇〇04 ^ Poo05 > P〇〇06 ^ P〇〇〇 ^. P〇〇〇B. P〇〇09. P〇〇〇 10. ρ〇〇Π, p〇〇12 χ P 0013, P0014, P0015, P0 ,, p1717, p. ,, p0019, p. , From the discharge source s to a more separated position, and spread. In addition, 20 particles p2G01, P2002, and P2 that occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation. . 3. P20. 4, P2005, p2006, p2007, p2, p209, p210, p20u, p2. 12, P2i3, p2, p2015, p2o16, p2 〇17, p2〇18, p " 9, p20 20 'are from the source s to the exit position, and spread. The position of each particle P is calculated using the wind speed field data every 20 seconds on the scale of RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System). 85181.doc -13-1227434 calculates the diffusion velocity (U) of each particle p in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model. ', V', w ')' is obtained by moving each particle. After 60 seconds from the start of the calculation, 'the emission source s shown in FIG. 21 is re-issued 9 Π / Ι3ΕΪ ΛΑ τν Π 1 λ- »λ. 20 particles are generated ρ6 () (卩 6002, 卩 6003, P6004 , P6005, P6Γ〇6, ^ 07 P :, ρ :, P6 ,, ρ6 ,, ρ6 :, ρ6 ,, ρ6. &Quot;, ρ :: 15, Ρ6〇17 60 > 60 16 Ρβο19 Ρ 60 20 this At this time, the particle dagger that occurred at the beginning of the calculation, Pμ〇2, ρ ^ 〇3, P〇〇04 > Poo05 ^ P〇〇〇 ^ > P〇〇07. P〇〇〇s. P〇 〇〇9 ^ p〇〇1〇 ^ p〇〇 ^ p " l2 ^ p〇〇13, P ... 14, p, p, p ,, p ..., p0019 from the exhaust source S to reach It leaves the position and spreads. In addition, 20 particles P ^ 01, P2O, P20.3, P2.04, P2005, p2006, p20 ( ) 7, p2 ,, p / 9, P2〇10, p20u ^ P2〇12 ^ P2013. P2〇14, p2〇15, ρ2〇6 6 p2〇17 ^ p2〇18 > p2〇19 ^ P2〇2G 'It is diffused until the emission source S reaches a more distant position. In addition, it is 20 particles p4〇01, p4002 ^ P which occurred 40 seconds after the start of the calculation. 4〇03 > P4〇〇4. P4〇〇5, p4〇〇6 ^ p4〇07 λ ρ4〇0δ ^ p4〇09 ^? 4〇10 ^ p40 ", p4.12, P4 () n, p4q14 , P4 () 15, p4q16, pj7, pj8, pj9, P402G, are from the source s to the exit position, and diffuse. The position of the mouth particle P is used in rams (Regional Atmospheric

Modeling System) code calculates the wind speed field data every 20 seconds scale, calculates the diffusion velocity (U,, ν ′, w ′) of each particle ρ in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and obtains by moving each particle. As mentioned above, 20 particles are successively generated in each calculation period △ tpO seconds) 'and the position 5 of each particle in each calculation period Δt (20 seconds) is also 85181.doc -14-1227434 broken • Is the space coordinate (xi (t), yi (t), Zi⑴). In addition, when a predetermined time has passed from the start of calculation, the unit space (the unit volume of the predicted area) of the predetermined distance from the exhaust source, as shown in Figure ⑵, π 'case of particles' can be calculated from the number of particles The concentration of a substance in units of shiba. That is, if the Q (m3) substance is discharged from the discharge source S for 1 second, 20 particles (20 seconds after conversion) are generated in the particle P, so each particle P becomes equal to each particle. It has an emission source intensity of Q / l (m3;). Here, the number of particles P existing in the unit space can be calculated by multiplying the intensity Q / l (m3) of the emission source to obtain the concentration of the substance in the unit space. If the above specific example is generally displayed, it will be as follows. Substitute a large number of particles for substances such as gas exhausted from the exhaust source. Furthermore, N particles are emitted from the exhaust source per second. In this case, the discharge amount of the particles in calculation is N / sec. When the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the actual discharge source is Q (m3 / sec), each particle has a Q / N (m3) discharge source intensity. For each particle, the equation of motion is calculated by non-eternal numerical values, and the wind speed field data calculated by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code is 'substituted into the HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Concentration Transport Model) code' and calculated using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model. The diffusion velocity (u ', ν', w ') of each particle P can be determined by non-eternal and constant coordinates by moving each particle. That is, the spatial coordinates of each particle can be determined by each calculation period Δt. In addition, the data of each particle recorded in the data recording device by using the Lagrangian particle model is only the spatial coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)) of each particle. 85181.doc -15- 1227434 The HYPACT code of the equation of motion of particles (substances) is a person who expresses the phenomenon of particles moving and expanding under the gravity. Here, the particle migration phenomenon depends on the atmospheric time level, paleo & degree 'diffusion phenomenon, and it depends on the atmospheric turbulence velocity, gravity sinking, & A stop, ^, sibling descending system depends on particles Mass, acceleration of gravity, viscosity coefficient of air, etc. (see Figure 23). When the number of particles in the product is η in the unit of industrial gas, the milk & size (concentration of shellfish) of this space forms nXQ / N (gas A air m3). That is, the emission source intensity Q / N of each particle formed on the number of particles existing in the unit space. Problems to be Solved by the Invention The environmental concentration (concentration of a substance per unit volume) depends on the temporal change of the discharge amount of the discharged substance. Therefore, under the condition that the discharge amount changes with time, it is necessary to perform the diffusion calculation for each discharge condition. Therefore, under the assumption that there are many discharge conditions, it is necessary to perform the diffusion calculation of the discharge amount routinely, and as a result, a huge calculation time is required. ', Touch t as shown in Fig. 24.' When, for example, the emission source s (for example, smoke emanates gas-(mussel)), the temporal change of the gas concentration at a certain place F under the wind is due to the emission from the emission source S. The material changes with time. ', / Is, as shown in Figure 25: The discharge of the material changes with time: the concentration of the substance at location F, as called)

^ ⑷ The concentration of the substance discharged at a certain place, the concentration of the substance at the place F is shown in Figure 26⑻, which rises to—a fixed value and then remains—a fixed concentration, as shown in the case of being discharged between the objects W, as shown in Figure FF ) —It goes to zero after rising. The spoon respect is like 85181.doc -16-1227434. In this case, it is necessary to make the number of particles and the amount of matter to change with time in the case where the amount of matter discharged changes with time. Then, the moving position of the particles whose number has changed over time is determined in this way, and the moving position of the particles is used as the concentration of the substance. Therefore, in each case where the change in the discharge volume is different, the diffusion calculation must be performed in advance, and a huge nose calculation result is required. For example, in a facility that handles radioactive materials, in the case of an accident in which radioactive materials are discharged to the outside, a very large amount of materials (for example, 100 kinds of substances < substances) are discharged. In addition, the discharge amount varies depending on the door knife force J for each substance. Therefore, in each substance, the number of particles to be generated and the amount of the discharged substance are changed with time, so that the position where the number of particles is changed is calculated, and the concentration of the substance is calculated from the position of the particles. Therefore, in this case, it is necessary to perform a diffusion calculation of 100 types corresponding to, for example, 100 types of substances in advance. In view of the foregoing prior art, the present invention is to provide a method for discharging a plurality of types of substances, and even if the amount of each substance is changed with time, it is possible to predict the diffusion state of the diffusing substance in a short period of time, even if the diffusing state of the substance is calculated. The purpose is a prediction method and a system for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The method for predicting the state of diffusion of a diffusing substance according to the present invention that solves the above-mentioned problem is to predict the state of diffusion of a substance discharged into the atmosphere from an exhaust source into the atmosphere. 4 The number of particles that have been set in advance in each calculation cycle; 85181.doc -17- 1227434 and multiple locations in the area that contains the location of the source of discharge, by which the wind direction and wind speed will change over time The wind velocity field data is substituted into the diffusion equation of the calculated particle's diffusion state to find the diffusion speed of each particle: From this diffusion speed, the spatial coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle at each calculation period are obtained, and the measurement is performed from the original The elapsed time after the discharge of the elapsed time at the time when the foregoing particles occurred corresponds to the Xuanjian cliff of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle, and the county records it in the data logger; Elapsed time after the discharge of the substance The change in the discharge volume over time is set in advance as the The time passes the intensity source data of the particle discharge; and reads out the space coordinates of each particle recorded in each calculation cycle of the data recording device and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle, and refers to the read after discharge The elapsed time is used to determine the point of occurrence of each particle, and the intensity of the emission source of each particle at that point of time is obtained from the above-mentioned emission source data, and the spatial coordinates and the coordinates of each particle corresponding to each calculation cycle are recorded in the aforementioned data recording device. The elapsed time and the intensity of the emission source after the discharge of each particle; Also, the concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a predetermined calculation cycle is obtained by accumulating the exhaustion source of all particles existing in the predetermined area of the predetermined calculation cycle. Find the strength. In addition, the method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance according to the present invention is to predict the state where a substance discharged into the atmosphere from a plurality of emission sources diffuses into the atmosphere, and replaces the foregoing substance with a plurality of particles, and sets each discharge source In each calculation cycle, a preset number of grains are generated 85181.doc -18-1227434; and multiple locations in the area containing the location of the emission source will show the direction of the wind over time. • The wind speed field data is substituted into the diffusion equation for calculating the diffusion state of particles, and the diffusion speed of each particle is obtained. From this diffusion speed, the spatial coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle at each calculation period are calculated and measured. From the elapsed time after the elapsed time when the aforementioned particle first occurred, the m-coordinate of each particle identifying each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the evacuation of each particle and the evacuation source identification information of the evacuation source are recorded in advance in the data logger ; And proportional to the time elapsed after the elapsed time after the discharge of the substances & discharged by each discharge source For the change of the discharge amount, the discharge source intensity data of the particles is set in advance for each discharge source in accordance with the elapsed time after discharge; and each particle of each calculation period recorded in the aforementioned data recording device is read out. Space coordinates and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle and the identification information of the discharge source of each particle, and refer to the read elapsed time after discharge to find the point of occurrence of each particle, and refer to the read out identification information of the discharge source to correspond to its particles. The intensity of the emission source of each particle at the time of particle generation is obtained from the foregoing emission source intensity data of the generated emission source, and the space coordinates of each particle corresponding to each per-calculation period and the ejection of each particle are recorded in the aforementioned data recording device. Time and the intensity of the emission source; The concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of the disparate calculation period is obtained by accumulating the emission source intensity of all particles existing in the predetermined area of the predetermined calculation period. 85181.doc -19- 1227434 In addition, the method for predicting the expansion status of the expansion substance of the present invention, meaning the emission source intensity data, is obtained by actual measurement from the aforementioned emission source *: and the concentration of the second substance and is set; The non-existent object and the aforementioned "strength resource department" are based on the time change of the concentration of the substance that is continuously measured at the point of discharge from the Zhouyuan Garden. In addition, each of the "diffusion state prediction systems of the diffusive substance of the present invention has two different prediction systems." When the diffusive substance is discharged into the atmosphere, it has just been expanded, and the data of the discharge amount of the diffusive substance will be continued. The meteorological data communication facility is the meteorological observation data. The Supervisory Office is responsible for the aforementioned enterprises and the aforementioned enterprises. People, notify the evacuation advisory; and, in the analysis of U-systems, forecast the liquidation of the dispersed state of diffusing substances, and calculate the concentration of the substances in a given area; / It ’s in the full text analysis center 'from the aforementioned company The display of diffusible shellfish and meteorological observation data from the aforementioned meteorological data communication facilities were transmitted by means of information transmission; The concentration of the substance in the center is transmitted by means of information transmission. Difficulty: The above-mentioned supervisory office is notified to avoid the implementation mode according to the concentration of the substance transmitted. The following describes the implementation mode of the present invention in detail based on the drawings. Morphology (case where there are only one emission source ^> ^ noodles, ¾ Fig. 1 to Fig. 10_ explain the method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusive substance, particularly a diffusion material, according to the first embodiment of the present invention. 85181.doc -20- 1227434 The first step of the first embodiment (refer to FIG. 1 of the calculation flowchart) is performed as follows. That is, even if the discharge amount of the substance actually discharged by the discharge source S is constant, the discharge amount changes over time. First, let the discharge amount Q (m3 / sec) of the substance be a fixed value (= 10), use the previous one

Lagranglan particle diffusion model, numerical calculation of particle dynamics. Further, in addition to the fact that each b has the spatial coordinates (y⑴, y⑴, zi (t)) of Bayson, the elapsed time Ti⑴ after the elapsed time at the time when the particles originally occurred is exhausted according to each calculation period △ ( , Recorded in the data recording device i. The specific description of the processing of the first step is as follows. The operation is performed at each calculation cycle Δt (here Δt = 20 seconds), so that 2 〇 particles are generated, and at each calculation period Δ 1 (20 seconds), the position (spatial coordinates) of the particle p is calculated. First, at the time of calculation start, 20 particles P are generated by the exhaust source S. 01 ^ P〇〇02 ^ P〇〇03 > P〇〇〇4 ^ p〇〇05 ^ p〇〇06 ^ p〇07 ^ p〇〇〇8 ^ p ^ 〇9 ^

Poo10, Poo11, P0. 12, P0013, p0014, p0015, p0016,? . . 17, p0018, Poo19, P0020. After 20 seconds from the start point of / Beyer, 20 particles p20Gi, p2Q〇2, p 20 03 P2004 P2005 were generated by the emission source s shown in FIG. 2

P2008, P2009, P 2〇-, P2011, P2012 'p 13 20 P2〇14 P2〇17 P P20 06 07 20, P20 15 .-n 16

P 20

P 20 18 P2〇19 P2〇20 At this time, the particles Poo01, P〇QG2, PQQ03, P〇0'4 'P〇〇 ° 5 ^ P〇0 ° 6 NP〇〇07 ^ Poo08 'Poo09 > Poo10 ^ Poo11 ^ P〇〇12 ^ P〇 ° 13, Pg〇14, Pg〇15, p〇. 16. P. . 17, P. . 18. p. . 19, p, is from the point where the exhaust source s reaches the point where it leaves and diffuses. 85181.doc -21-1227434 The position of each particle POO01 ~ Poo20 is based on RAMS (Regional

Atmospheric Modeling System) code to obtain wind velocity field data every 20 seconds scale, calculate the diffusion velocity (u ', ν', w ') of each particle P〇〇 ～ 〇〇 2 () of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and borrow It is obtained by moving each particle. Furthermore, the particles PggGi ~ p⑽20 that occurred at the start of the calculation are 20 seconds from the start of the resumption (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after discharge corresponds to the respective two coordinates (xi (t: = 20)), yi (t = 20) of each particle ρ〇〇ι ～ p〇〇２〇. , Zi (t = 20), and recorded in the data recording device 1 (refer to Figure 丨, Figure 2). After 40 seconds from the start of the calculation, 20 more particles 1> 4, p :, P: 3, p404, p: 5, p: 6, ~ are generated from the emission source S shown in FIG. 3. 7.P4〇〇δ ^ P4〇09. P4〇 ^ 〇. Ρ4〇π. Ρ4〇ΐ2, ρ4〇13 ^ ρ4〇14 ^ ρ4〇15 ^ ρ4〇16 ^ ρ4〇17, P4018, PJ9, ρ4〇 2〇. At this time, '' particles ρ〇〇01, ρ⑽〇2, ρ ^ 〇3, P〇 ° which occurred at the start of the calculation '"' P-05 ^ P〇〇 ° 6 'P〇07 ^ Poo08 ^ Poo09 ^ Poo10 ^ Poo- ^ p00-. H〇13, P〇. 14, P00i5, P. ,, p0017, p. ,,, p. From the point where the discharge source S reaches a more distant position and spreads. In addition, 20 particles P2 occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation. , P2O02, P2 (3), P2O4, P20 ° 5, P2O6, P2O. 7, P2 08, p 2 0 09, p 2 0, P 2 0n, P 2. 12, p 2 () i 3, p 2 0 14, p '5, p; 6, p 2 0 17, p' 8,

? 2019 and P202G are diffused from the source S until they leave. The positions of each particle P000 1 ~ P0〇2〇, p2: ~ p2〇2〇 are wind speed field data per 2085181.doc -22-1227434 seconds scale obtained using RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code. , Calculate the diffusion velocity (u,, v,, w,) of each particle P0 () () 1 ~ Pgg'P / 1 ~ P2022G of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and obtain it by moving each particle. Furthermore, the particles Pgg01 ~ P⑽ that occurred at the start point of the calculation have passed 40 seconds from the start point of the calculation (the point at which the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time after discharge is D0 = 40 seconds, which corresponds to the respective coordinates (xi (t == 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), zi (t == 4〇) and recorded in the data recording device 1 (refer to FIG. 1 and FIG. 3). In addition, the particles p2Q0i ~ Pμ20, which occur 20 seconds after the start of the calculation, have elapsed 20 seconds from the start of the calculation (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti 排出 = 20 seconds after discharge corresponds to the respective space coordinates (xi (t = 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), and 卜 4〇 of each particle P201 ~ P2020. ), And recorded in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 3). After 60 seconds from the start of the calculation, another 20 particles p6001, p6002, P6003, P6004, P6005, P6Q〇6, p \ P6 were generated from the emission source s shown in FIG. 4. ° 08, P6. . 9, P6〇1 (), P60U, P6012, P6〇13, P6〇14, P6〇15,? 6.16, P6017, P6.18, P6.19, p602. . 6〇 At this point, the particles M P〇〇04 ^ Poo05 ^ Poo06 ^ P000 ^. P〇〇〇S. P〇〇09 ^ p〇〇1〇 ^ p〇〇11 ^ 〇 〇i2 'p 13 -p. 14 〇0, P〇〇, Po 0, P0015, P00i6, P (K) i7, p00i8, p0019 r〇〇, the instrument exhausts the source S Reached further departures and spread. P 〇3 ^ 20, p 04 kp 05 ^ 20, p 06, ^ 20, p 〇'7 ^ 20, P 12 ^ 20, p 13 ^ 20, sp 14 corpse 20, p 15 ^ 20, p 16 f 20 N 20 particles p 08 ”20,! &gt; 009, p 17 ^ p20, 1 &gt; 2018, and P20, P20.2. N10, p2ON, 8518l.doc -23-1227434? 2 °, P20 'is from the emission source 8 to a more distant position and more diffuse. In addition, '20 particles occurred 40 seconds after the start of the calculation P4001 'P4〇02 ^ P4〇03 &gt; P4〇04. P4〇〇5. P4〇〇6, p4〇07 ^ p4〇〇8 ^? ^ 〇9 ^ P4〇10 ^ P4〇U ^ P4〇12 ^ P4013. P4〇i4 λ p4〇i5 ^ p4〇i6, p4〇i7 ^ p4〇18 ^ 2 19 2 0 P40, P40, is reached by the exhaust source s and left more diffuse. Each particle P: ~ P :, 〇2〇2〇, P: ~ p4〇2〇 position, using the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) code every 20 seconds scale wind speed field data to calculate the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of each particle PG , ~, P2: ~ p;., P4gG1 ~ P4g2 () The velocity (U ', V', W ') can be obtained by moving each particle. Further, the particles p⑽ (Π ~ pG () 2 () that occur at the start point of the calculation are calculated from the start point of the evolution (the particles first occur At that time, 60 seconds have elapsed. Here, the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 60 seconds after discharge corresponds to each space coordinate (X1 (t = 6) of each particle P () () 〇ι ～ Ρ () () 2〇 〇)), yi (t = 6〇), zi (t = 6〇), and record them in the data recording device 1 (see Figs. 1 and 4). In addition, the particle P2 occurred 20 seconds after the start of the calculation. 〇 () 1 ~ p ^ 2〇 means that 40 seconds have elapsed since the start of the sub-iso (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti = 240 seconds after discharge corresponds to each particle p2001 to P2020 Each space coordinate (xi (t = 60)), yi (t = 60), Zi (bu 60b and 1) have been recorded in the data recording device 1 (refer to FIG. 1, FIG. 4). In addition, 'from the calculation The particles ρ4〇ι ～ p4Q20, which occurred 40 seconds after the time point, passed 20 seconds from the time when the calculation started (the time when the particles first occurred). Here, the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after discharge corresponds to each space coordinate (Xi (t = 6〇)), yi (t = 6〇), 85181.doc -24-1227434 P4001 to P4020, zi (t = 60), and recorded in the data recording device 1 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 4). As described above, Lu Ji caused 20 particles to occur at each calculation period △ t (20 seconds), and obtained the position of the particles at each calculation period △ "chuan seconds", which is the space coordinate (Xi ( t), yi (t), zi⑴). In addition, the elapsed time Ti (t) after discharge of each calculation period Δΐ is measured in advance so that it corresponds to each calculation period &lt; elapsed time after discharge of each spatial coordinate and each particle, successively Recorded in the data recorder 1. Next, the second step (refer to Figure 丨) will be described in detail. In the aforementioned first step, the discharge amount Q (m3 / sec) of the substance has been set to a fixed value (= 10). Numerical calculation. However, the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the actual discharge source s is as shown in FIG. 5, and it often changes as the elapsed time Ti 时间 elapses. Here, the discharge amount changes with time. For the changing situation, as shown in Fig. 6, the discharge amount of the substance corresponding to the change shown in Fig. 5 is set as follows: With the elapsed time after the time Ti elapses, the data showing the intensity of the discharge source is set. , Such as platooning and speaking version to take 呷 间 B⑴ ’, 20 seconds and 60 seconds', the intensity of the emission source is 0.3, 0.9, and 0β6, respectively. Secondly, it is recorded in the data recording device 1 and reads out every calculation period. And, for each particle, referring to the elapsed time D i 排出 after its discharge, find the time point of occurrence, and use the intensity data of the source of non-discharge source in Figure 6 to find the intensity of the source of the particle. ^ Y The space seat of the weighted unit 垆 ^ The elapsed time after the discharge of the particles D. "r /, t 1⑴ and the intensity of the discharge source correspond to each reading 85181.doc -25- 1227434 calculation cycle, and then recorded in Data memory device! . If specifically explained, as the data when the elapsed time Ti (t) is 20 seconds after the discharge (i-th calculation period), it is the spatial coordinates corresponding to each particle P: ~ p / (xi (t = 20) ), Yi (t = 20), zi (t = 2〇), and Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after discharge, and recorded in the data recording device 丨 (refer to the figure. Printed here, read out each particle P: ~ The space coordinates (xi ^ 20)), yi (t = 20), Zi (t = 20), and the elapsed time after discharge (Qiu) of P0020 are two seconds, with the current time t = 20 seconds minus The elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds after de-emission is performed, and each particle P: ~ P is obtained. 'Elapsed time after exhaustion at the time of occurrence Ti⑴ = 0 seconds. Further, from the discharge intensity data shown in Fig. 6, the discharge source intensity 0.3 when the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 0 seconds after the discharge when the particles P0001 to P0020 occurred was obtained. It also corresponds to each particle PG. The space coordinates yi (t-20), Z1 (t = 20) of each space from 01 to P⑽20, and the elapsed time after discharge Ti (t) = 20 seconds, and the intensity of the emission source of each particle PGG ~ PGG 0.3, and Recorded in the data logger. In addition, when the time elapsed after discharge Ti⑴ = 40 seconds (the second calculation cycle) <Shell material, corresponding to each space coordinate of each particle ρ〇〇οι ～ p⑽2〇 = 40)) yiG — 40), zi (t = 40), and elapsed time TRt after ejection = 40 center and each space coordinate (Xi (t = 40)) of each particle P2001-P2020, yi (t = 4〇 ) 'Z1 (t = 4〇)' and elapsed time Ti 排出 = 20 seconds after discharge, and recorded in the data? The recorded device 1 (see FIG. 3). Here, the space coordinates (xi (t = 40)), yi〇4〇), Z1 (t = 40) of each particle Poo01 ~ Poo20 are identified, and the elapsed time Ti 排出 = 40 seconds after discharge, borrowed 85181.doc -26- 1227434 Subtract from the current time t = 40 seconds, the time when the particles are discharged &amp; the discharge ^ Tl⑴ = 40 seconds, find the elapsed time Ti (t) = 0 seconds after the discharge. Moreover, from the discharge shown in Fig. 6, ^ 20 is reversed, and when the particles are generated,

P 0.3 P 0 0 elapsed time after discharge Ti 0 = 0 seconds The intensity of the discharge source at the same time is' read out each spatial coordinate of 00 of each particle p 01 to p 2 0 (xi (t = 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), zi (t = 4〇), and the platoon "talk deductive silly elapsed time Ti⑴ = 20 seconds' minus the row ψ your current time t = 40 seconds after you Αν Feng Yun discharged The elapsed time Ti (t) = 20 seconds, and each particle Pm01 to P 2 0 peaks and peaks per day &lt; time point &lt; elapsed time after discharge

Ti⑴ = 20 seconds. Furthermore, from the discharge intensity data shown in Fig. 6, the emission source intensity 0.5 when the emission time when particles P2001 to P2020 occurred was monitored, and the time elapsed time D1 (t) = 20 seconds was 0.5. Furthermore, the space coordinates (xi (t = 4〇)), yi (t = 4〇), Zi (t = 40) corresponding to each particle P: ~ P〇γ and the elapsed time Ti (t) = 40 seconds, and the emission source @ 度 〇 · 3 of each particle P00P00, and then recorded in the data logger. In addition, each space coordinate corresponding to each particle P: ~ p2200 (〇 = 4〇)), yi (t = 40), zi (t = 40), elapsed time after discharge Ή⑴ = 20 seconds, and intensity of discharge source of each particle P2 / 1 ~ P ^ 2ϋ 0.5, and then recorded in data recorder 1 . In addition, as the data when the elapsed time Ti (t) = 60 seconds (the third calculation period) after discharge, the data is corresponding to the spatial coordinates (xi (t = 6〇)), yi ( t = 6〇), zi (t = 60) 'and elapsed time Ti060 seconds after discharge, and each space coordinate (xi (t = 60)) of each particle P20 ~ P202 (), yi (t = 6〇), 851Sl.doc -27-1227434 zi (t = 60), and elapsed time after discharge TKt) = 40 seconds, and each particle? 40 ~? Each space coordinate of 40 (xi (t = 60)), yi (t = 60), zi (t6〇) 'and elapsed time after discharge Ti (t) = 20 seconds, and recorded in the data recording device 1 ( (See Figure 4). a Here, read out the space coordinates (xi (t = 6〇)), yi (t = 6〇), zi (t = 60) of each particle P: ~ P〇〇〇〇, and the elapsed time after discharge Ti (t) = 60 seconds, and the current time t = 60 seconds minus the elapsed time after discharge Ti⑴ = 60 seconds, and each particle P is obtained. . . 1 ~ Pgq20 occurs at the time elapsed after discharge Qiu Bu 0 seconds and 2. From the discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6, find out when the particles occur

Poo01 ~ P. . 2. The elapsed time after the discharge time Ti⑴ = 0 seconds. The intensity of the discharge source is 0.3. Similarly, the spatial coordinates (xi (Bu 60)), yi (t = 60), zi ( t = 60), and the elapsed time Ti4 = 40 seconds after the discharge, and the current time t = 60 seconds minus the elapsed time after discharge D = 1 秒 = seconds, to obtain each particle 0.2.2. The elapsed time after discharge at the time point Tl⑴ = 20 seconds. Further, from the discharge intensity data shown in Fig. 6, when the particles p2, ~ p2, and elapsed time Ti 排出 = 2q seconds after discharge have been obtained, the source intensity is 0.5. Similarly, read out the space coordinates 60)), Punch = 60), Qiu = 60) 'of each particle p4OO1 ~ P4o2' and the elapsed time after discharge _) = 20 seconds, with the current time t = 60 seconds minus #The elapsed time after the exit is called d seconds' to find each particle ~ P, and the elapsed time after discharge at the time of occurrence Ti⑴ = qing. In addition, from the data on the degree of exhaustion discussed, the exhaustion when the elapsed time of 40 seconds after the discharge of the particles P4 ° to °° is released is 85181.doc -28-1227434 and the emission intensity is 0.9. In addition, the spatial coordinates (xi (t = 60)), yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60) 'and the elapsed time of the illusion moxibustion Ti⑴ = 6 corresponding to each particle P00 () 1 ~ P20. Seconds, and the emission source intensity of each particle Poo ~ P〇〇G 0, and recorded in the data logger 1 ° In addition, corresponding to each space coordinate (xi (t = 6〇)) of each particle P, ~ P, yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60), elapsed time after discharge Ti4 = 40 seconds, and intensity of discharge source of each particle P2GG1 ~ P2γ is 0, and then recorded in the data logger 1 ° In addition, corresponding to each The spatial coordinates ㈤ (t = 60), yi (t = 60), zi (t = 60) of particles P4〇01 ~ p'0, and the elapsed time Ti 后 = 20 seconds after discharge, and each particle P4〇 The intensity of the emission source of Pm is 0 · 9, and then recorded in the data logger 1 ° Even after the <calculation cycle, the same processing calculation is performed, corresponding to each spatial coordinate of each particle, and the elapsed time Ti⑴ after discharge, and the discharge of each particle The source intensity is recorded in the data recording device. Next, the processing in the third step (refer to FIG. 丨) will be specifically described. For example, when the elapsed time Ti⑴ = 120 seconds after discharge, the calculation is shown in FIG. 7 The emission source S, in a predetermined grid area (a unit cell forming a unit volume) leaving a predetermined distance, and the concentrations of the substances 1, 1, and κ, are read out by the data logger worker after the elapsed time Ti 排出 = 12 seconds exists in The particles in the grid area. When read out, as shown in Fig. 7, the presence of particles without heads can be used to calculate the concentration of the substance in the unit space by accumulating the intensity of the emission source of each particle. Also, as shown in Fig. 7 The displayed spacer regions are as follows: 85181.doc -29- l227434 4 particles pqq〇i, Pϋ () 〇5, 1 (), · 0 of 3 with an intensity of 0 = 3 Particles P2 () G1, ρ2 () 〇7 ,; 2 particles with an intensity of 0.9, P4〇ig, and 1 particle with an intensity of 0A, p6Qn; for this purpose, by accumulating this second Equal to the intensity of the source of the particles, we can calculate the concentration of the substance in the unit space as 51. (0.3X4) + (0.5X3) + (0.9X2) + (0.6 X 1) = 5 · !. If the general (Mathematically) The first embodiment described above is as described in a. In the first embodiment, as shown in FIG. When the source s is discharged, the material concentration (gas concentration) of the grid regions I, J, and K under the wind of the discharge source s is predicted in accordance with the time change. Moreover, as shown in FIG. Needless to say, as shown in Fig. 9 ，, it is possible to predict the concentration-time variation of the calculated grid area bu & as shown in (), even if the discharge amount of the substance is the time-varying discharge amount q⑴ 'as shown in Fig. IG (b ), It is also possible to predict the concentration-time variation of the calculated grid area. In the first M form, first, when the amount of the substance P discharged by the source s actually changes the amount of the foot's discharge over time, first let the amount of substance Q Q (m3 / sec) be a certain value. (= Ί 〇), using the previous month J & Lagranglan particle diffusion model, replacing the substance with particles, the N source particles are generated every second by the emission source S, the dynamics of each particle are calculated numerically, and the positions of 7 and 7 particles are calculated. Space coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi⑴). Further, in addition to the spatial coordinates (xi (t), yi⑴, zi (t)) of the information that each particle has, in each calculation period At, the time at which the particle originally occurred will be 85181.doc -30-1227434 The elapsed time Ti (t) after the elapsed time is recorded in the data recording device. Thus, using the previous Lagrangian particle diffusion model, it is possible to measure the time variation of the concentration distribution of all discharges q (t) corresponding to the time variation. For this reason, the display of the discharge quantity q (t) of the substance proportional to the time is set to display the intensity of the discharge source of the particles as the time elapses after the time Ti⑴ elapses after discharge. Moreover, at a certain time (t), the data storage device reads out the space coordinates (Xi (t), yi⑴, zi (t)) showing the position of each particle and the elapsed time Ti (t) after discharge, at a certain discharge amount. (Q = 1 · 〇), although the emission source intensity of each particle is Q / N (m3) = 1 / N, but in the case of a time-varying emission quantity q (t), the emission source intensity of each particle Form q (t—Ti) / N (m3). Once again, except for the spatial coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)) of the information that each particle has, at each time ⑴, the elapsed time Ding ⑴ ⑴ and the The emission source intensity qi (t — Ti) / N (m3) is recorded in the data recording device. In this embodiment using the emission source intensity q (t — Ti) / N (m3) corresponding to the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, the elapsed time after discharge, and the discharge volume 9 with time change, since the unit volume in space ( Each particle of air lm3) has a different emission source intensity, so the cumulative emission source intensity of each particle qi (t-Ti) / N (m3) i Σ qi (t-Ti) / N (m3) is formed and exists in this Gas in a unit volume. Therefore, the gas concentration in the air becomes Σ qi (t ~ Ti) / N (m3) / N (gas m 3 / air m3). &lt; Second implementation mode (when there are a large number of emission sources)> There are a large number of emission sources (j), and the respective emission sources change over time. 85181.doc -31-1227434 Same as &lt; Emission volume (qj (t )) When the substance is discharged, plus the particle information (location, after the release of the temple) of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model used in the first embodiment, each particle holds the identification information (si) of the emission source, which can be used in conjunction with the first 1 implementation of the same function. For example, as shown in FIG. 11, in a case where there are two discharge sources S1 and §2, the particles discharged from the discharge source si are held with the source identification information sl, and the particles discharged from the discharge source S2 are held with the source identification. Information. Furthermore, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model is used to replace matter with particles. Two particles per second are generated from S2 and S2. The dynamics of each particle are calculated numerically, and the space coordinates (xi (t), (yi⑴, dagger). In addition to the space coordinates (χί⑴, ^ ⑴, _)) of the information that each particle has, it holds the elapsed time Ti⑴ from the elapsed time of the time when the particle originally occurred, and the identification information of the emission source. U, &, shown in Fig. 12 ，, the discharge amount q discharged from the discharge source S1, like a catty, as 疋 (1), using the previous Lagrangi such as the particle diffusion model, find the grid area shown in Fig. 12⑻ , Quality and time change, and remember the green in advance. Secondly, the discharge amount of the substance discharged from the discharge source is as shown in Figure 7 &lt; 7F shown by the dotted line, if it is 4 of time change. I) In the same manner as in the first embodiment, for the discharge of t from the child, Let the intensity of the emission source of particle 2 be ql (t). In addition, the intensity of the emission source at the time when each: weight 卞 'refers to the occurrence of q! ⑴' sets the intensity of the emission source :, ^ fruit 'in the desired grid area w, K, the time change of the concentration of the rabbit (the required lattice area, the concentration of the substance of j, κ) of 85181.doc -32-1227434. Similarly, the discharge amount of the substance discharged by the discharge source S2 If it is q2 (t), for the particles released from the discharge source 81, the intensity of the discharge source of the particles is taken as ⑴ in the same way as in the first embodiment. Also, for each particle, refer to The emission source intensity q2 (t) at the time of particle generation is used to set the emission source intensity. As a result, by cumulating the emission source intensity of the particles having the emission source identification information s2 in the desired grid area, it can be obtained The concentration of the substance discharged from the discharge source S2 (desired Sub-area (the concentration of the substance in K)). Thus, the time variation of the concentration of the substance discharged from the source S1 plus the time of the concentration of the substance discharged from the source S2 can be calculated. Show the concentration of the substances in the desired grid area J and K. &lt; Third embodiment &gt; The third application form is, for example, after a gas leakage accident, based on the actual measurement of the amount of gas discharged. A method for calculating the current and future concentration distributions in a short time. Environmental impact assessments and other plans are being expanded, and the calculation results are not needed in an emergency, so the amount of gas discharged is determined by the process between the temples After q (t), a few days after several H i October, the prediction of the gas diffusion status is implemented. However, in the case of an emergency such as a gas leak accident, it is necessary to take immediate precautions from surrounding residents. m., Although the beam, it is necessary to output the diffusion calculation results in a short time as possible. In this case, according to the 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution at each time, as shown in Figure 85181.doc • 33-1227434, The first Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the same embodiment implements a predetermined release rate (Q = 丨) continuously for 24 hours. After a gas leak accident, the actual gas concentration measurement device installed at the outlet of the chimney of the exhaust source measures the actual Gas discharge amount q (t). According to the actual gas discharge amount q (t), by setting the exhaust source intensity q (t) of each particle, the same method as in the first embodiment can be used to correct and calculate the corresponding gas discharge amount. The concentration time changes (refer to FIG. 14 ((1) (6)). That is, for each particle, the emission source intensity q (t) at the time when the particle occurred is set to set the emission source intensity (FIG. 14 (d) )). In addition, in the desired grid region hj'K, by accumulating the intensity of the source of the particles existing in the region, the concentration of the substance discharged from the source S can be obtained (the substance concentration in the desired grid region and the ruler) Time changes. In addition, the future gas emission amount is equivalent to the actual measured gas emission amount q (t), or calculated according to a prediction formula set by another method. The current and future 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution is used as the calculation method. The wide area meteorological data (GPV: Grid Point Value) called by the meteorological bureau is used for wide area meteorology. Method for predicting the change of the detailed grid (several kilometers to several meters) of meteorological data (wind speed, temperature) by calculating the penalty (RAMS, MM5, etc.). &lt; Fourth embodiment &gt; The fourth embodiment is a method of calculating the current amount of exhausted emissions in a short period of time based on the actual measurement results of the concentration around the leaked space after the occurrence of a gas leak. ^ 14 In the case of a gas leak accident, as shown in Figure 15⑷, 85181.doc -34-1227434, which is the source of the leak, is difficult to determine the discharge amount q (t) of the leak source s. 'When the concentration (ck⑴) measured by observing the black account (xk) around the genus 戌 space is used, the discharge amount q (t) can be estimated in a short time using the male male diffusion model of the i-th embodiment. In the event of a leakage accident I, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment is used to calculate the concentration (Ck⑴ calculation) of a certain surrounding observation point (xk) in advance with a certain discharge amount (Q = 1) (see FIG. 15 (b)). (Refer to Figure ^ ⑷). The concentration of children (calculated as ck (t)) is calculated from the particle (η) existing in the volume from 3 degrees to the inter-volume (Δχ × ΑΑΑζ) with the observation point (xk) as the center, followed by the formula (10).

Ck (t) calculation = η X Σ Q (t- ΊΠ) / N / (Δ χχ △ yx △ ζ) ... (1〇) In this case, the discharge amount Q (t—Ti) is a certain value (= 1) . Next, the concentration-time change of the observation point (Xk) is measured (ck (t) observation), and the formula (11) is obtained using the formula (10). (Ck (t) observation) = η οχ £ q〇 (t_〇) / N / (Axx △ yxAzj + nix

Eql (t- ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ ΔγχΔζ) + η2 × Eq2 (t-2 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + η3 × Zq3 (t-3 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχ × Δγ × Δζ) + η4 × Iq4 (t-4 · ΔΤ) / N / (Δχχ Δγχ Δζ) + ...... + η 1 X Σql (t—ΐ) / Ν / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + C0⑴ ...... .......... (11) Here, ηΐ, η2, η3, and ηΐ are released 0 seconds before the start of release, △ Τ seconds before, (ΔΤχ2) seconds before, and (ΑΤχ3) seconds before And t seconds before, the total number of particles that exist in the 3 degree space volume (△ XX △ y X △ z) with the observation point (xk) as the center, 85181.doc -35-1227434. In addition, co (t) is called the background concentration. The concentration that is released from the source of the discharge as a calculation object, and exists regardless of the observation site, varies by a certain value or time t. qO, ql, q2, q3, and ql are released from 0 seconds before t seconds, △ t seconds, (△ TX2) seconds, (△ TX3) seconds, and ί (Δ TX 1) seconds. rate.

Ck (t) observation is a continuous measurement for 24 hours, so from the time of leakage to 0 seconds, △ T seconds, (△ TX2) seconds, (△ TX3) seconds, and t (^ T XI) seconds. , Can measure more than (1 + 1). When there are k observation points xk, observation data of k X (1 + 1) can be obtained. Since the unknown number of formula (11) has (1 + 1) qO, ql, q2, q3, and ql, and the known number Ck (t) has more than kx (l + 1) observations, the unknown number is less than the known number. In this case, the minimum automultiplication method can be used to determine the unknowns q0, ql, q2, q3, and ql, so that the minimum automultiplication error for the observed concentration "⑴ is minimized. Also, Fig. 16 shows the calculation of the fourth embodiment. Flow chart of the status. &Lt; Fifth embodiment &gt; The fifth embodiment is, for example, after a gas leak accident, based on the actual measurement result of the leaked area, the current gas discharge amount is estimated in a short time, and the concentration is calculated. The method of distribution. According to the fourth embodiment, the time change of the measured degree (Ck (t) observation) at the observation point (xk) around the leaked space can be obtained by using the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment. Estimate the discharge amount q (t) in a short time. 85181.doc -36-1227434 As shown in Figure 17, before the leakage accident occurs, the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the first embodiment is used to predict the discharge rate (q = 1) in advance. ), Calculate the concentration (Ck (t) calculation) of a certain surrounding observation point (xk). The k degree (Ck (t) calculation) is centered on the observation point (xk), and exists in the space volume of 3 degrees (△ XX △ y X △ z) The particles (11) are calculated by the following formula (12).

Ck (t) calculation = n X Σ Q (t — Τί) / N / (Δ χχ Δyx Δz) · (12) In this case, the release rate Q (t—Ti) is a certain value (= ι). Next, the concentration-time change at the observation point (xk) is measured (ck (t) observation), and the formula is obtained using the formula (12). (Ck (t) observation) = nOX EqO (t-0) / N / (ΔχχΔγχΔζ) + ηΐχ

Iql (t- ΔΤ) / N / (ΔχΧ ΔγχΔζ) + η2Χ Zq2 (t-2 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + n3X Eq3 (t-3 · ΔΤ) / Ν / (Δχχ AyX Δζ) + n4X Zq4 (t-4 · Δ T) / N / (Δ χχΔγχΔζ) + ... + Π 1 X Σ ql (t-ΐ) / N / (ΔxX ΔyX Δz) + C0 ⑴ ... .............. (13) Here, nl, n2, n3, and nl are 0 seconds before release, △ T seconds before, ΔΤχ2 seconds before, and Ατχ 3 ) The total number of particles existing in the 3 degree space volume (△ XX △ y X △ Z) with the observation point (Xk) as the center of the particles before and t seconds. In addition, "co (t)" is called the background concentration, and the concentration existing as an object to be calculated from the emission source, regardless of the observation site, varies by a certain value or time t. 85181.doc -37- 1227434 qO, ql, q2, q3, and ql are "from 0 seconds before the beginning of time, before Δτ seconds, (△ Τχ2) seconds, (△ Τχ3) seconds, and t (A TX) 1) Release rate before second.

The Ck (t) observation is a continuous measurement for 24 hours, so from the time when the leak started to 0 seconds, △ τ seconds, (△ TX2) seconds, (△ TX3) seconds, and (△ Τ XI) seconds. , Can measure more than (1 + 1). When there are k observation points xk, observation data of k X (1 + 1) can be obtained. Since the unknowns in formula (13) have (1 + 1) of q0, qi, q2, q3, and ql, and the known number Ck (t) has more than kx (l + l) observations, the unknowns are better than the known numbers less. In this case, the minimum automultiplication method can be used to determine the unknowns qO, ql, q2, q3, and ql, so that the minimum automultiplication error for the observed concentration "⑴ is minimized. Use the estimated values q0, q1, q2, q3 And q 1, according to the method of the first embodiment, if the concentration time change correction calculation is performed, the concentration distribution of each elapsed time can be calculated. &Lt; Sixth embodiment &gt; The sixth embodiment is based on the network Provide a system that calculates the current and future concentration distribution results in a short time based on the actual measurement results of the gas leakage after the gas leakage accident. In the event of an emergency such as a gas leakage accident, it is necessary to take emergency measures against the surrounding residents, Therefore, it is necessary to output the diffusion calculation results in a short time as possible. However, since such a leak accident does not know when it will occur, it is necessary to manage and operate the 24-hour system in the fire department of the Supervisory Office, the police, and the factories of local governments and companies. A computer system for this purpose. 85181.doc -38- 1227434 In this management application, it requires more labor and high-level calculations. In addition to the permanent large-scale organization of crisis management, the use of computer technology has its own management difficulties. Therefore, it is proposed to use the recent Internet information supply system as a method to remedy the problem. In the implementation form, as shown in FIG. 18, the Supervisory Office 10 of the Superintendent's Firefighting, Police, and Local Government, and each factory η of the company's enterprise are located at a separate location with a security analysis center 12. At the security analysis center, Meteorological data such as the Internet are used to receive meteorological observation data from meteorological data transmission facilities such as Meteorological Listening 13, and usually use a large-scale computer for calculation. Based on the 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution at each time, The Lagrangian particle diffusion model with the same form is implemented, and the diffusion calculation with a certain release rate (Q = 1) is performed continuously for 24 hours in advance. After the gas leakage accident, if the smoke_exit gas installed in the company 11 is set up, the degree The radon measuring device, etc., knows the actual gas emission amount, and transmits the gas emission amount q (t) to the safety analysis center 12 via information transmission means such as the Internet. Therefore, in the safety analysis center 12, the same time as the first method can be used to correct the calculation of the concentration-time change corresponding to the gas release rate. The safety analysis center 12 sends the calculated concentration calculation result to Consumers: Police officers, local government officials, and other supervisory offices 10. Supervisor official 10, according to the concentration, issued an evacuation advisory to enterprisers 11 and residents 14 around the factory. In addition, future gas emission rates are measured based on actual conditions. The gas emission rate q (t) is equivalent, or calculated according to a prediction formula set by another method. In addition, 85181.doc -39-1227434 has a large number of companies 11 and performs the second implementation in safety analysis. The morphology shows the calculation of 'predicted concentration-time changes. As a method of calculating the current and future 3 degree spatial wind speed distribution, it is based on the use of regular meteorological observation data (GPV: Grid PO-V called wide-area meteorological observations) from the wide-area grid (2Qkm) periodically transmitted by air radon 13. Prediction model (RAMS, MM5, etc.), a method of calculating the time variation of meteorological data (wind direction, wind speed, air temperature) in detail (number to number). The effect of the invention is as described in the above embodiment and has been specifically explained. The method for predicting the diffusion state of the diffusive substance of the present invention is to predict the state of the substance discharged from the exhaust source to the atmosphere and expand to the atmosphere. 'The foregoing substance is replaced with a large number of particles, and the position of the exhaust source is set at Pre-set number of particles occur in every calculation period; and in multiple locations within the area of the source of the package 3 discharge, the wind direction and wind speed field data will be displayed over time, and substituted into the calculated particles. The diffusion equation of the diffusion state is used to find the diffusion speed of each particle, and from this diffusion speed, the position of the work space showing the existence of each particle at each calculation period is obtained. Coordinates' and measure the elapsed time after the elapsed time from the elapsed time when the aforementioned particle originally occurred, corresponding to the space house of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the evacuation of each particle are recorded in the data recorder in advance;蚣 The elapsed time L after the discharge of the discharged substance has passed the change of the discharge I, and the source intensity data of the particles are set in advance with the passage of time after the discharge, 85181.doc 1227434 and 'Read the record At the spatial coordinates of each particle and the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle in each calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device, and referring to the elapsed time after the discharge is read out, the point of occurrence of each particle is obtained, and the intensity data of the discharge source are obtained from the foregoing. Calculate the emission source intensity of each particle at this point in time, and then record the spatial coordinates of each particle corresponding to each calculation period and the elapsed time and intensity of the emission source after each particle is discharged in the shell material recording device; The concentration of the aforementioned substances in a predetermined area of a calculation period is obtained by accumulating the existing substances in the predetermined calculation period. The intensity of the exhaust source of all the particles in the region is obtained. For this reason, even if the amount emitted from the exhaust source is different, the concentration of the substance in the specific region can be calculated in a short time. In addition, the diffusion state of the diffusing substance of the present invention The prediction method is to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from most sources into the atmosphere. The foregoing substances are replaced with a large number of particles, and the positions of each source are set to be preset in each calculation cycle. The number of particles; and the multiple locations in the area including the location of the emission source, by displaying the wind direction and wind speed field data over time, and substituting them into the diffusion equation that calculates the diffusion state of the particles, find out The diffusion speed of each particle is obtained from the diffusion speed. The space coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle in each calculation cycle are obtained, and the elapsed time after the elapsed time from the elapsed time at which the particle first occurs is measured to identify each correspondingly. The coordinate between each particle of the calculation cycle and the elapsed time and source of each particle after its discharge Emission source deceleration 1] Information 'pre-recorded in the data record · 85181.doc -41-Ϊ227434 out &lt; after the exhaustion of the material, each of the exhaustion sources is divided in advance through the exhaustion source of the particles, and the proportion is For the change in the discharge amount of the time elapsed by each discharge source, do not set the time intensity data with the elapsed time after discharge; and read out the spatial coordinates of each particle recorded in each data-calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device. And the discharge source identification information of the time disk after the discharge of each particle, and referring to the elapsed time after reading out, refer to the readout source identification information of the time when each particle occurred, and refer to the discharge source corresponding to the particle generation The foregoing emission source intensity data is used to obtain the emission source intensity of each particle at the time of particle generation = time, and the foregoing data record = the space coordinates of each particle corresponding to each-calculation period and the elapsed time and emission source intensity of each particle; In addition, the concentration of the aforementioned substances in a predetermined area of a predetermined calculation cycle is obtained by accumulating the predetermined existence in the predetermined calculation cycle. Particle source intensity discharge portion of the entire area is obtained. For this reason, even if the amount discharged from the discharge source is not, the concentration of the substance in the special region can be calculated in a short time. In addition, even if the substance is discharged from most sources, the concentration of the substance can be accurately calculated. In addition, the diffusion state of the diffusing substance of the present invention is pre-rigid square:: Incremental data is obtained by measuring the concentration of the shellfish actually discharged from the above-mentioned row and setting it. = The above-mentioned emission source intensity data is based on the observation of the above-mentioned emission source ”, the time variation of the concentration of the only substance to be measured is set as the basis # Therefore, even if the concentration of the two substances by the emission source is not previously obtained, 85l8l .doc -42- 1227434 shellfish, you can also use the measured data for concentration calculation. In addition, the diffusion status prediction system of the diffusive substance of the present invention includes: °: the operator's when the diffusive substance is discharged into the atmosphere, Measured diffusive matter, / degree, and send data showing the discharge of diffusive matter; Oxygen shellfish communication facilities, which are meteorological observation data; Fengdu τ Hall, which is for the aforementioned enterprises and the surrounding residents of the aforementioned enterprises 'Notification of evacuation advice; and the safety analysis center, which is used to calculate the concentration of substances in the calculation area of the patent application item 1 or 2 and deviate from the predetermined area; Therefore, at the aforementioned safety analysis center, the company from the aforementioned company showed the diffusion The discharge data of shellfish and the observational data from the aforementioned meteorological data communication facilities were transmitted by means of information transmission; and The material from the aforementioned security analysis center; Chen degree, which is transmitted by means of information transmission; Moreover, the supervisory office is difficult to advise based on the concentration notification of the transmitted material. ^ This is to perform calculations at the security analysis center. Based on the information, the Office of the Supervisor can quickly issue an evacuation advisory, and can urgently take measures for evacuation in the surrounding area. The diagram briefly illustrates the flow chart of the calculation process of the first embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 is Head 7 ^ Explanation diagram of the diffusion state of particles in the first embodiment of the present invention. ~ 85181.doc -43-1227434 The present invention &lt; 罘 1 consistent application mode 4 is an explanatory diagram. Fig. 5 is a characteristic diagram showing an example of the time variation of W in the row ^ ^ ^ of the diffusion state of the particles. Fig. 6 is an example of the corresponding substance of the heart Characterization diagram. "Intensity of phased readout source Fig. 7 is an explanatory diagram of the particle distribution in the grid region of the display money. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of a display source and a grid area. Fig. 9 is a graph showing the π discharge amount and its characteristics. "... Fig. 10 of the discharge volume and the concentration is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the pick-up field τ and the discharge time when the time changes. &Amp; Figure 11 below shows the two discharge sources and the grid area. An explanatory diagram. Fig. 12 is a characteristic diagram showing the amount of discharge and a certain amount of discharge and concentration. Fig. 13 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the amount of discharge and time. Fig. 14 shows the third embodiment. Fig. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing a fourth embodiment. Fig. 16 is a graph showing a discharge amount and a concentration in a case where a calculation flow of a fourth embodiment of the present invention is changed between processes. Fig. 17 is a display diagram The flow of the calculation flow of the fifth embodiment of the invention 85181.doc -44- 1227434 Fig. 18 is a system configuration diagram showing the system of the sixth embodiment. Fig. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing the diffusion state of the particles of the prior art. Fig. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing the diffusion state of particles of the prior art. Fig. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing the diffusion state of particles of the prior art. Fig. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing the particle distribution of a predetermined grid region. Fig. 23 It is an explanatory diagram showing the function of the particle diffusion model. Fig. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing the discharge source and the grid area. Fig. 25 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge amount and the concentration when the discharge amount changes with time. The characteristic diagram of the relationship between the discharge amount and the discharge amount and the concentration in a certain situation. Fig. 27 is a characteristic diagram showing the relationship between the discharge amount and the discharge amount and the concentration in the instant situation. Explanation of the representative symbols 1 Data recording device 10 Supervision office 11 Enterpriser 12 Safety Analysis Center 13 Meteorological Agency 14 Residents S, SI, S2 around the factory 85181.doc -45-

Claims (1)

1227434 Scope of patent application: 1 · A method for predicting the diffusion state of diffusive substances. In order to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from the exhaust source into the atmosphere, the foregoing substances are replaced with a majority of particles and set as A predetermined number of particles occur in each calculation cycle from the position of the exhaust source; and the multiple locations in the area containing the position of the exhaust source will show the wind direction and wind speed field data over time , Substituting into the diffusion equation of the diffusive state of the calculated particles, the diffusion speed of each particle is obtained, and the spatial coordinates showing the spatial position of each particle at each calculation cycle are obtained from the diffusion speed, and the measurement of The elapsed time after the elapsed time at the point in time corresponds to the spatial coordinates of each particle in each calculation cycle and the elapsed time after the ejection of each particle, and is recorded in the data logger in advance; and it is proportional to the elapsed time after the ejection of the discharged substance The change of the discharge amount after the passage of time is set in advance as the elapsed time after the discharge The time elapsed data on the intensity of the emission source of the particles; In addition, it is said that the spatial coordinates of each particle recorded in each calculation cycle of the aforementioned data recording device and the elapsed time after the ejection of each particle are referred to and read out after the elapsed time. Time, find the time point when each particle occurs, and find out the intensity of the emission source of each particle at that time point from the previous data = intensity data. In the description data recording device, record the spatial coordinates of the particles corresponding to each calculation period and The elapsed time after the discharge of each particle and the source of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a predetermined calculation period 85181.doc 1227434 degrees, which is obtained by accumulating the intensity of the exhaust source of all particles existing in the predetermined area of the predetermined calculation period. 2 · —A method for predicting the diffusion state of diffusive substances. In order to predict the diffusion of substances discharged into the atmosphere from most sources, the plutonium substance is replaced by a large number of particles, and the A preset number of particles are generated at each calculation cycle, and multiple locations in the area containing the location of the exhaust source are displayed by changing the wind direction and wind speed field data over time. Calculate the diffusion equation of the particle's diffusion state, find the diffusion speed of each particle, and use this diffusion speed to find the $ coordinate between the spatial position where each particle exists in each calculation cycle, and measure the time point from which the aforementioned particle first occurred The elapsed time after the elapsed time corresponds to the spatial coordinates of each particle that identifies each calculation cycle and the emission source identification information of the elapsed time and exhaust source after the exhaustion of each particle is recorded in the data recorder in advance; Changes in the amount of elapsed time after the elapse of the time elapsed after the discharge of substances from each source For each discharge source, the discharge source intensity data of the particles is set in advance with the elapsed time after discharge; in addition, each calculation period recorded in the aforementioned data recording device, "the space coordinates of each particle and the The elapsed time after the discharge of each particle and the identification information of the discharge source of each particle, and the time point of the occurrence of each particle is obtained by referring to the elapsed time after the discharge, and the reference is made to the discharge source corresponding to the particle generation. In the foregoing emission source intensity data, the emission source intensity of each particle at the time of the occurrence of the particles is described in the data 85181.doc 1227434 recording device and then records the spatial coordinates of each particle corresponding to each calculation period of each parent and the ejection of each particle. The elapsed time and the intensity of the emission source; Also, the concentration of the aforementioned substance in a predetermined area of a predetermined evolutionary period is obtained by accumulating the exhaustion source intensity of all particles existing in the predetermined area of the predetermined calculation period. 3. For the method for predicting the diffusion state of the diffusing substance in the scope of the patent application, the emission source intensity data is obtained by actual measurement of the concentration of the substance actually emitted from the emission source and is set. 4. For the method for predicting the diffusion state of a diffusing substance according to item 1 or 2 of the patent application scope, wherein the aforementioned emission source intensity data is based on a temporal change in the concentration of the substance measured at an observation point around the aforementioned emission source. 5. —The diffusion status prediction system of a diffusing substance, including: an enterpriser, which measures the diffusing substance when the diffusing substance is discharged into the atmosphere; the degree, the information showing the discharge amount of the diffusing substance; The cargo communication facilities are for meteorological observations; the supervisory agency is used to notify the evacuation advisers of the aforementioned enterprises and the surrounding residents of the aforementioned enterprises; and the security analysis center is used for the calculation of item 1 or 2 of the scope of patent application Processing and differentiating the concentration of substances in a given area; In addition, in the Zemei Safety Analysis Center, the above-mentioned companies show the emission of diffuse shellfish I "data" and meteorological observation data from the aforementioned meteorological data communication facilities, which are borrowed information Transmission by means of communication; Also, in the Zemi Supervision Office, the degree of material from the security analysis center mentioned above is transmitted by means of information transmission; 85181.doc 1227434 The above-mentioned Supervision Office is based on the concentration of the material transmitted. We inform evacuation advice. 85181.doc