RU2763126C1 - Apparatus for predicting random events - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: computing technology.SUBSTANCE: apparatus for predicting random events is comprised of a control unit, a system model unit, a system section simulator unit, a failure signal generation unit, a registration unit, a model data verification unit, a model data correction unit, N ≥ 2 identical controllers of the operational time of model elements, a main operational time controller, a disaster analysing unit, a unit for assigning threshold values of the amount of failures, and an interval average analysing unit.EFFECT: increasing the accuracy of simulating and predicting random events.2 cl, 15 dwg

Description

The invention relates to the field of computer technology and can be used to assess the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible production, information or telecommunication systems (PITS) of an arbitrary structure, which uses the cyclical nature of production, provision of information or telecommunication services, as well as temporary redundancy.

A device for predicting random events is known, containing a control unit, a system model unit, a unit for simulating the states of system sections, a block for generating signals of failures, a registration unit, a model data verification unit and a model data correction unit (see RF patent No. 2368003 "Device for predicting random events "MGJ 8 G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, published 20.09.2009, bull. No. 26).

The disadvantage of this device is the limited ability to identify the states of the system, characterized by the absence of dynamics (impossibility) of changing the parameters of these states of the PTS, taking into account the changing tasks of modeling and forecasting, as well as other influencing factors.

A device for predicting random events is known, which contains a control unit, a system model unit, a system section state simulator unit, a failure signal generation unit, a registration unit, a model data verification unit, a model data correction unit, N ≥ 2 operating time controllers of model elements and a main controller operational time (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, published 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15).

However, this device has a drawback - the relatively low reliability of modeling and forecasting random events, associated with the impossibility of identifying and verifying the states of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) number of PTSF failures, states characteristic of the emergency, critical position of the reliability and stability parameters of the simulated system.

The closest in technical essence to the claimed device (prototype) is a device (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31), containing control unit, system model block, block of system sections state simulators, failure signal generation block, registration block, model data verification block, model data correction block, N ≥ 2 operational time controllers of model elements, main operational time controller, catastrophe analysis block and a block setting threshold values for the number of failures. In this case, the output of the registration unit is connected to the input of the control unit, the reset output of the control unit is connected to the reset inputs of the block of simulators of system sections, the system model block, the block for generating signals of failures, the registration block, the model data verification block, the model data correction block, the catastrophe analysis block and a block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures, where M ≥ 2 control outputs of the control unit are connected to the corresponding M control inputs of the system model block, the synchronizing output of the control unit is connected to the synchronizing inputs of the block of state simulators of the system sections, the system model block, the block for generating signals of failures, the block registration block, model data validation block, model data correction block, catastrophe analysis block and a block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures. The control output of the control unit is connected to the control input of the block of state simulators of the system sections, N group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the model data correction unit and the model data verification unit, the N-bit output of which is connected to the N-bit input of the model data correction unit, and the signal output of the model data checking unit is connected to the signal input of the model data correction unit. Moreover, N group inputs of the model data verification unit are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system model unit, the control input of the failure signal generation unit is connected to the control output of the model data verification unit and the control output of the model data correction unit, the control input of the model data verification unit is connected to the control output system model block. In this case, the N group outputs of the block of simulators of the states of the system sections are connected to the information inputs of the corresponding N controllers of the operational time of the model elements, the information outputs of which are connected to the corresponding group inputs of the system model block, the correcting inputs of which are connected to the correcting outputs of the corresponding N controllers of the operational time of the model elements, and correcting inputs of N controllers of operational time of model elements are connected to the corresponding outputs of the main controller of operational time, the inputs of which are the corresponding N inputs "Correction of operational time" of the device. The signal input of the registration unit is connected to the signal output of the failure signal generation unit, the information output of which is connected to the information input of the catastrophe analysis unit, the information output of which is connected to the information input of the registration unit, and the check input of the catastrophe analysis unit is connected to the output of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures, the control input of which is the input "Input of the threshold values of the number of failures" of the device, the warning output of the catastrophe analysis block is the output of the "Catastrophe threat" of the device.

The prototype implements the possibility of increasing the degree of adequacy of simulated and predicted situations (random events), increasing the level of reliability of modeling and assessment (forecasting) of the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS, when in the dynamics of a real system, for example, a computing or information complex, the number its one-time failures can smoothly change under the influence of control actions or external factors, creating the potential (danger) of blocking, collapse of the process of functioning of the PITS.

However, the prototype device has a drawback - a relatively low reliability of modeling and forecasting random events under conditions of constantly changing and heterogeneous initial information obtained through different observation channels. This is due to the impossibility of obtaining in the prototype device interval (upper and lower boundary) estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning during the entire shift task (the time of the service delivery session to users). The prototype device has a narrow field of application, since it forms a limited sequence of current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle, not combined by a single time for completing the entire shift task) assessments of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning for separate independent segments (steps, clock cycles) of operational time.

This is due to the fact that the prototype device, allowing to simulate and evaluate (predict) in conditions when the number of one-time PITS failures can smoothly change under the influence of control actions or external factors, creating a potential danger of its blocking (collapse), is not able to form generalized interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the indicators of reliability and quality of the functioning of the PTS, averaged over the observation period - over the time of the entire shift assignment.

This excludes the use of the prototype for modeling the real process of the functioning of the system under study in the interests of predicting random events taking into account the dynamics, when the simulated parameters of the functioning of hardware and software, as constituent elements of the PITS, are constantly changing and uncertain. In this case, even in the presence of the necessary volume of statistical data on the current point, step-by-step values of the reliability and quality indicators of elements and processes implemented by the PITS, in real conditions, the stability of these values over time is rarely observed. As a result, either it is impossible to determine the exact distribution law of the values of the reliability and quality indicators of the PITS and it is required to consider a whole class of distributions, or it is generally impossible to determine either the law or the class, but only some particular current indicators of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning. the values of parameters, for example, characterizing the efficiency (timeliness) - the average access times of authorized users to the resource of information systems, the average search times for the requested content, or characterizing reliability - the average operating time of PITS elements to failure.

Obtaining an unrestricted sequence of current, point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) modeling results at separate intervals of operational time, and the formation of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability and quality of the PITS functioning during the time the system is performing the entire shift task is very important. Current point, step-by-step assessments are not always rational from the point of view of making decisions on the management of elements and resources of the PITS as a whole. Much more important for the optimal control of systems of this class is the interval estimates of their reliability and quality, averaged over the observation period.

Mathematical theory called the theory of interval analysis, statistical analysis of interval observations, interval statistical models) [1-6]. The mathematical apparatus of the theory of interval averages is based on the concept of “generalized mean” and allows considering arbitrary types of initial data that have a variety of sources when modeling and assessing the reliability and quality of PITS. Allows to obtain accurate lower and upper values (boundaries) of the average level of quality and efficiency of the PITS observed over a time interval. From this point of view, this theory is the most universal tool for analyzing the quality and reliability of PITS, in the description of which there are many (heterogeneous) types of data. The theory of interval means makes it possible to consider all approaches to the description of uncertainties in solving problems of analyzing the quality and reliability of PITS from a unified standpoint [4].

Thus, the specifics of modeling and assessing (forecasting) the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS, allows, firstly, to conclude that the approaches proposed in analogs and in the prototype to the step-by-step analysis of individual elements of PITS and PITS are generally private and do not mean a general approach that allows analyzing the quality and reliability of various complex systems on a time interval from a unified management position. Second, the development of mathematical models for assessing the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS, as a rule, is faced with the need to take into account those types of uncertainties that depend on the source of information [4]. Thirdly, a number of problems of assessing the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS cannot be solved within the framework of the theory of probability. That is why there is an objective need to use the theory of interval averages for these purposes. Not taking into account the considered specificity of the behavior and analysis of the PITS facilitates the task of modeling and evaluation (forecasting) of systems of this class, however, it reduces the degree of model adequacy, the level of reliability of the analysis and narrows the scope of the device, since it does not allow obtaining interval estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning, averaged over the time of the shift assignment (for the entire observation period).

"Operational time" refers to the time allotted by the system to perform a separate private task (operational task) within a shift task, for example, the time for providing a user with a service to access Skype within the entire session of providing services to a user. Usually this is the minimum unit of time (for example, a minute for which a particular operational task can be performed (within a shift task)), specified in the form of clock cycles of device operation (t, t + 1, t + 2, ..., T) from the synchronizing output of the control unit, or determined by the main controller of the operational time, included in the general block diagram.

By "time of completion of a shift task (time of a session of providing services to users)" is meant the time T allocated for the system to complete the entire task. This time is the sum (set) of segments of operational times for which the system performs the entire list of private tasks (for example, many operational tasks of providing individual information and / or telecommunication services) within a shift task (during a session). The time reserve of the system and its sections is formed by increasing the time allocated for performing the shift task.

“System failure” (“system failure with non-replenishing time reserve”) means the untimely execution of private operational tasks of a shift task, i.e. the failure of the production, information or telecommunication system is recorded when the operational time has expired, and the operational private task from the shift task has not yet been completed (no information or telecommunications service has been provided for this operational time).

The “number of failures” (“number of failures”) per unit of time means the number q, where q = 1, 2, ..., Q (Q ≥ 1), usually ranging from 1 (one) to 50 (fifty) and characterizing the possible number of one-time failures, errors, technical or software failures, untimely executions of a particular task of a shift task during this allotted operational time for this particular task, etc., arising (almost simultaneously) in a minimum unit of time (for example, a minute) set in in the form of clocks of synchronization of the device operation from the synchronizing output of the control unit, or determined by the main controller of operational time, included in the general block diagram.

The aim of the invention is to develop a device for predicting random events, capable of increasing the reliability of modeling and forecasting random events - capable of obtaining interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (all the time of the services to users), a device with a wider range of applications, capable of simulating and predicting random events taking into account the dynamics of their change over the entire time interval of a shift task, which is very important for optimal control of systems of this class.

This goal is achieved by the fact that a known device for predicting random events, containing a control unit, a system model block, a block of state simulators of the system sections, a failure signal generation unit, a registration unit, a model data verification unit, a model data correction unit, N ≥ 2 identical controllers of the operational time of model elements, the main controller of the operational time, the block for the analysis of catastrophes and the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures, the block for the analysis of interval averages is additionally included, designed to carry out procedures for calculating interval averages (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of the system functioning for the entire time of the shift task (for the entire time of the session of providing services to users), as well as for issuing to the operator the results of calculating interval average estimates of the reliability and quality of the production, information or telecommunication system, and the output d of the registration unit is connected to the input of the control unit, M ≥ 2 control outputs of the control unit are connected to the corresponding M control inputs of the system model block, the control output of the control unit is connected to the control input of the block of state simulators of the system sections, N group inputs of which are connected to N corresponding group outputs the model data correction unit and to the N corresponding group outputs of the model data verification unit, the N-bit output of which is connected to the N-bit input of the model data correction unit, and the signal output of the model data verification unit is connected to the signal input of the model data correction unit, N group inputs the model data verification unit are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system model unit, the control input of the failure signal generation unit is connected to the control output of the model data correction unit and to the control output of the model data verification unit, the control input of which is connected to the control output at the system model block, while N group outputs of the block of state simulators of the system sections are connected to the information inputs of the corresponding N operational time controllers of the model elements, the information outputs of which are connected to the corresponding group inputs of the system model block, the correcting inputs of which are connected to the correcting outputs of the corresponding N operational controllers time of model elements, the correcting inputs of N controllers of operational time of model elements are connected to the corresponding outputs of the main controller of operational time, the inputs of which are the corresponding N inputs "Correction of operational time" of the device; which is connected to the output of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures, the control input of which is the input "Entering the threshold values of the number of failures" at device, the warning output of the catastrophe analysis unit is the output of the "Catastrophe threat" of the device, the reset output of the control unit is connected to the reset input of the block of simulators of system sections states, the reset input of the system model block, the reset input of the failure signal generation unit, the reset input of the registration unit, the reset input of the block checking the model data, the reset input of the model data correction unit, the reset input of the catastrophe analysis unit, the reset input of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures and the reset input of the interval mean analysis unit, the signal input of which is connected to the signal output of the failure signal generation unit, the synchronization output of the control unit is connected to the synchronizing input of the block of simulators of the states of the system sections, the synchronizing input of the system model block, the synchronizing input of the failure signal generation block, the synchronizing input of the registration block, the synchronizing input of the pr model data oversight, the synchronizing input of the model data correction unit, the synchronizing input of the catastrophe analysis unit, the synchronizing input of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures and the synchronizing input of the interval mean analysis unit, the signal output of which is connected to the signal input of the registration unit, the information input of which is connected to the information output of the interval mean analysis block, the information output of the catastrophe analysis block is connected to the information input of the interval mean analysis block, the first operator output of the interval mean analysis block is the output of the "Interval mean reliability values" of the device, the second operator output of the interval mean analysis block is the output of the "Interval mean quality values »Devices.

The block for analysis of interval averages consists of a central calculator, primary and secondary random access memory (RAM), while T ≥ 1 inputs B of the central computer are combined and are the signal input of the block for analyzing interval averages, T inputs A of the central computer are combined and are the information input of the block, the transfer input of the central calculator is a reset input of the block, the clock input and the input of the resolution of the data outputs of the central computer are combined and are the synchronization input of the interval average analysis unit, the inverse output of the transfer generation of the central computer is connected to the enable inputs of the primary and secondary RAM, respectively, the basic outputs of which are respectively informational and signal outputs of the block, the first and second data outputs of the central computer are connected to the base inputs of the primary and secondary RAM, respectively, the operator output of the primary RAM is the first operator output bl After analyzing the interval averages and the "Interval average reliability values" output of the device, the operator output of the secondary RAM is the second operator output of the interval average analysis block and the "Interval average quality values" output of the device.

The principle of creating the proposed device for predicting random events is based on the well-known research results in the field of the theory of interval averages, set forth in the works [1-6]. Analysis of these works makes it possible to form a mathematically correct algorithm for modeling and predicting random events, taking into account the dynamics of their change over the entire time interval of a shift task, an algorithm for obtaining interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS for the entire execution time shift job (all the time during the user service session).

Thus, within the framework of predicting random events, taking into account the dynamics of their change over an interval of time (for the entire interval of time of performing a shift task), taking into account the possible (probable) presence of various kinds of uncertainties and taking into account the objective need to process heterogeneous, often incomplete observation information, it is solved the task of obtaining interval (upper and lower boundary) estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning for the entire duration of the shift task (the entire time of the session of providing services to users). From the point of view of physical interpretation, this is the process of modeling (building generalized statistical models) and interval analysis of the reliability and quality indicators of the PITS with the possibility of displaying (alerting) the user (operator, administrator) of the system of assessment data (interval estimates averaged over the observation period) for making reasonable PITS management solutions.

With this approach to predicting the reliability and quality indicators of a complex system, it is possible to obtain their interval (upper and lower boundary) estimates for the entire duration of the shift task (during the entire session of providing services to users). In this case, the entire interval - the entire time of the shift task (the time of the session of providing services to users), is the sum of the segments of operational times t, t + 1, t + 2, ..., T (T ≥ 1; t = 1, 2, ..., T; T = 50) allocated for the performance of a separate specific task and set using the synchronization clocks of the device operation coming from the synchronizing output of the control unit, or determined by the main controller of operational time (as the sum of operational times) included in the general structural diagram.

The analysis of theoretical approaches, highlighted in [1-6] and possible practical applications considered in [7] and [8], makes it possible to envisage in the device the possibility of such an assessment of the reliability and quality of PITS based on the methods of the theory of interval averages. The mathematical formalization of point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) indicators of the reliability and quality of PITS for separate periods of operational time can be represented by:

from the point of view of assessing the reliability of the PITS - by defining at the information output of the catastrophe analysis unit the failure signals corresponding to the point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle, for one interval t of operational time) values of the number of failures for each for each n-th section (N ≥ 2; n = 2,…, N; N = 50) of the system under study.

from the point of view of assessing the quality of the PITS - by determining at the information output of the block for generating signals of failures of signals about the execution of individual partial tasks (operational tasks from the list of a general shift task) corresponding to point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle, for one interval t of operational time) values of the number of completed tasks included in the general shift task for each n-th section (N ≥ 2; n = 2, ..., N; N = 50) of the system under study.

In turn, the mathematical formalization of the interval values of the reliability and quality indicators of the PITS for the entire time of the operational task can be represented by mathematical calculation of the interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality indicators of the PITS for the entire time T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) +… + (7)) performing a shift task (during the entire session of providing services to users).

The calculation of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the functioning of the PITS for the entire time T of performing a shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users) is as follows. There is a time interval T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)) for performing a shift task (a session of providing services to users) on which an interval assessment of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning will be carried out ... On the set of all identified values of the reliability and quality indicators, step by step (at each clock cycle, for each interval t of operational time) obtained, respectively, from the output of the catastrophe analysis unit (the signals of the number of failures are an indicator of reliability and numerically characterize the reliability of the system) and from the output of the failure signal generation unit signals (signals about the fulfillment of individual operational tasks from the list of the general shift task are an indicator of quality and numerically characterize the quality of the system), by analyzing statistics for the entire time of the shift task T, the interval quality indicators of each predetermined state of the system (system indicators) μ (S _j ) on this time interval, and these values are used to find interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS functioning.

и верхнее

значение среднего уровня надежности и качества ПИТС, наблюдаемого на интервале времени Т (Т=(t)+(t+1)+(t+2)+…+(T)), путем решения задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров (числа отказов и числа выполненных оперативных заданий) системы. Затем определяют интервальные оценки обобщенного показателя надежности и обобщенного показателя качества ПИТС с учетом результатов интервального анализа (идентификации) параметров системы. Это позволяет обеспечить непрерывность (динамику в непрерывном времени) анализа состояния, надежности и качества (получения интервальных оценок), повышение достоверности результатов моделирования, анализа и контроля систем такого класса в условиях постоянно изменяющейся и неоднородной исходной информации, получаемой по разным каналам наблюдения, а также расширение области применения средств моделирования, контроля и диагностики состояния, надежности и качества ПИТС с учетом внутренних и внешних (конструктивных и деструктивных) воздействий на систему на временных интервалах.In other words, based on the statistical analysis of the observed (measured) parameters, reliability and quality indicators (observations at the interval of the shift task T), the PTSS and using the methods of the theory of interval averages find the lower and upper average levels of reliability and quality of the system in this time interval. Calculate the exact bottom

and top

the value of the average level of reliability and quality of the PITS observed over the time interval T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)), by solving the linear programming problem based on the average values of the identified parameters (the number of failures and the number of completed operational tasks) of the system. Then, interval estimates of the generalized reliability indicator and the generalized quality indicator of the PITS are determined, taking into account the results of the interval analysis (identification) of the system parameters. This makes it possible to ensure the continuity (dynamics in continuous time) of the analysis of the state, reliability and quality (obtaining interval estimates), increase the reliability of the results of modeling, analysis and control of systems of this class in conditions of constantly changing and heterogeneous initial information obtained through different observation channels, as well as expanding the scope of modeling tools, monitoring and diagnostics of the state, reliability and quality of PTSS taking into account internal and external (constructive and destructive) influences on the system at time intervals.

The essence of the assessment of the values of the indicators of reliability and quality of the functioning of the PITS based on the methods of the theory of interval averages is as follows [1-6]. Suppose that the indicator of reliability (or quality) of the PITS has J states {S ₁ , S ₂ , ..., S _j , ..., S _J }, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., J. On the set of all predetermined (identified ) of the states of the PITS parameter (the number of failures or the number of completed operational tasks), we determine the reliability (or quality) indicators of each state μ (S _j ) on the time interval T. Then the reliability indicator E _n (or quality E _k ) of the PITS on the time interval T using predetermined (identified) states of its parameter is defined as (for example, for a reliability indicator) [1]

where p _j (T) is the probability that the system (reliability indicator) in the time interval T is in the identified state S _j .

и верхнюю

границы среднего уровня надежности (или качества

и

ПИТС, наблюдаемого на интервале времени Т. Тогда показатель надежности (или качества) μ может рассматриваться как признак (идентифицированный параметр системы - число отказов или число выполненных оперативных заданий), а функции

и

как нижнее и верхнее средние этого признака, т.е.It is assumed that the probabilities p _j (T) are unknown. But it is possible to form (determine in advance, receive from experts) the lower

and the top

boundaries of the average level of reliability (or quality

and

PITS observed on the time interval T. Then the indicator of reliability (or quality) μ can be considered as a sign (the identified parameter of the system is the number of failures or the number of completed operational tasks), and the functions

and

as the lower and upper averages of this feature, i.e.

и

- нижние и верхние средние, причем при полном отсутствии сведений о параметре, например о параметре, характеризующем надежность - числе отказовwhere

and

- lower and upper averages, and in the complete absence of information about a parameter, for example, about a parameter characterizing reliability - the number of failures

[1, 2].

[12].

In this case, an arbitrary numerical function f (x) is usually called a "sign" of a random phenomenon if x ∈ X, where X is the space of elementary outcomes of parameter values [5]. In our case, the “sign” is the level (value) of the indicator of the reliability and quality of the PITS observed at the time interval T.

For the indicator (sign) of reliability and quality of PITS, you can determine its exact average M (f), which, for example, for assessing reliability, is determined by the well-known formula [1, 2]

. Если не знаем точно функцию распределения F(x), а можем лишь говорить о ее границах

для всех значений x ∈ Х, то точное среднее для показателя надежности (качества) ПИТС находится в пределах

(f).where F (x) is the distribution function of a random variable (the distribution function of reliability parameters). The interval mean (imprecise prevision) of a feature is called a segment

... If we do not know exactly the distribution function F (x), but we can only talk about its boundaries

for all values x ∈ X, then the exact average for the indicator of reliability (quality) of the PITS is within the limits

(f).

надежности (или качества

) ПИТС по имеющимся средним значениям признаков ее надежности (качества)

и

за отдельные отрезки t оперативного времени, необходимо определить точную нижнюю границу (наименьшую из всех верхних) [1]:In our case, we have a PITS that implements each operational task for the allocated operational time t. The sum of the operational times is the execution time of the entire shift task T - the time interval at which it is necessary to determine the reliability and quality of the system. Then, the interval characteristics of the reliability and quality of the PITS can be obtained from the known characteristics of reliability and quality at separate time intervals (for separate periods of operational time allocated for a specific operational task) using the continuation principle, described in detail in [1]. To calculate the lower average

reliability (or quality

) PITS according to the available average values of the signs of its reliability (quality)

and

for separate intervals t of operational time, it is necessary to determine the exact lower bound (the smallest of all the upper ones) [1]:

where c, c _t are the lower average values of the identified parameter (attribute) of reliability (or quality) of the PTS for a separate t-oe operational time; d _t are the upper average values of the identified parameter (feature) of reliability (or quality) of the PITS for a separate t-th operational time (non-negative real parameters), and c ₀ is an arbitrary real parameter.

надежности (или качества

) ПИТС по имеющимся средним значениям признаков ее надежности (качества)

и

за отдельные отрезки t оперативного времени, необходимо определить точную верхнюю границу (набольшую из всех нижних) [1]:To calculate the upper average

reliability (or quality

) PITS according to the available average values of the signs of its reliability (quality)

and

for separate intervals t of operational time, it is necessary to determine the exact upper limit (the largest of all the lower ones) [1]:

и

уровня надежности (или качества

и

) ПИТС, наблюдаемого на всем интервале времени выполнения сменного задания Т, причем они вычислены как решение задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров надежности (качества) на каждом отдельном t-ом оперативном времени. Важно отметить, что при анализе надежности (или качества) ПИТС, наблюдаемого на всем интервале времени выполнения сменного задания Т в нашем случае не используется информация о независимости ее элементов. Тогда, для системы с мультипликативным обобщенным показателем надежности (качества), верно следующее соотношение, характеризующее функцию взаимосвязи показателей надежности (качества) ПИТС за интервал Т со значениями показателей ее надежности (качества) на каждом отдельном t-ом оперативном времени и, по сути определяющим обобщенную интервальную (граничную верхнию и нижнюю) оценку показателей надежности (

и

) и качества (

и

) функционирования ПИТС, например, для надежности [1, 3, 5]:Thus, we obtain the mean

and

the level of reliability (or quality

and

) PITS observed over the entire time interval of the shift task T, and they are calculated as a solution to a linear programming problem based on the average values of the identified reliability (quality) parameters at each separate t-th operational time. It is important to note that when analyzing the reliability (or quality) of the PTS observed over the entire time interval of the shift task T, in our case, information about the independence of its elements is not used. Then, for a system with a multiplicative generalized indicator of reliability (quality), the following relationship is true, which characterizes the function of the relationship between the reliability (quality) indicators of the PTS for the interval T with the values of its reliability (quality) indicators at each separate t-th operational time and, in fact, determining generalized interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators (

and

) and quality (

and

) the functioning of the PITS, for example, for reliability [1, 3, 5]:

Analysis of expressions (1) - (6) allows us to conclude about the technical feasibility of implementing the process of predicting random events during the operation of complex automated and flexible PITS and processes of interval analysis of reliability or quality (4) and (5) PITS, as well as a generalized assessment of reliability or quality functioning of PITS (6) based on the methods of the theory of interval averages.

Thanks to a new set of essential features, due to the introduction of an interval average analysis unit, designed to implement the procedure for obtaining interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of PITS functioning for the entire duration of a shift task (all the time of a session of providing services to users), as well as output the user (operator, administrator) of the system of assessment data - interval assessments of reliability and quality, averaged over the observation period, in order to make informed decisions on the management of the PITS, an increase in the reliability of modeling and forecasting of random events and an expansion of the range of application of the claimed device is achieved. The claimed device achieves the ability to simulate and predict random events taking into account the dynamics of their change over the entire time interval of a shift task, taking into account the possible presence of various kinds of uncertainties and the objective need to process heterogeneous, often incomplete observation information. Thus, the use of the claimed device will provide an increase in the level of reliability of the results of the analysis and control of the parameters of the PITS in the conditions of heterogeneous (often uncertain, unreliable) initial information obtained through different observation channels, will provide a continuous interval analysis of the system parameters.

The claimed device is illustrated by drawings, which show:

in fig. 1 is a block diagram of a device for predicting random events;

in fig. 2 is a block diagram of the block for analysis of interval averages;

in fig. 3 - block diagram of the control unit;

in fig. 4 - an example of the structure of a specific system (from six sections, N = 6);

in fig. 5 is a block diagram of a system model block;

) модельного элемента участка системы;in fig. 6 - block diagram of the n-th (

) a model element of a system section;

in fig. 7 is a block diagram of a block of simulators of system sections states;

in fig. 8 is a block diagram of a block for generating signals of failures;

in fig. 9 is a block diagram of the registration unit;

in fig. 10 is a block diagram of a model data verification unit;

in fig. 11 is a block diagram of a model data correction unit.

) контроллера оперативного времени модельных элементов;in fig. 12 - block diagram of the n-th (

) controller of the operational time of model elements;

in fig. 13 is a block diagram of the main controller of operational time;

in fig. 14 is a block diagram of a catastrophe analysis block;

in fig. 15 is a block diagram of a block for setting threshold values for the number of failures.

The random event predictor shown in FIG. 1, consists of a control unit 1, a system model unit 2, a unit of simulators of system sections states 3, a failure signal generation unit 4, a registration unit 5, a model data check unit 6, a model 7 data correction unit, N ≥ 2 identical model operating time controllers elements 81 - 8N, the main controller of the operational time 9, the catastrophe analysis unit 10, the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and the interval average analysis unit 12. In this case, the output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected to the input 16 of the control unit 1, M ≥ 2 control outputs 14 ₁ - 14 _M of the control unit 1 are connected to the corresponding M control inputs 24 ₁ - 24 _M of the system model block 2, the control output 15 of the control unit 1 is connected to the control input 34 of the block of simulators of the states of system sections 3, N group inputs 31 ₁ - 31 _N which are connected to the N corresponding group outputs 71 ₁ - 71 _N of the model 7 data correction unit and to the N corresponding group outputs 68 ₁ - 68 _N of the model 6 data check unit, the N-bit output of which is connected to the N-bit input 74 of the model 7 data correction unit, and the signal output 65 of the model 6 data check unit is connected to the signal input 75 of the model 7 data correction unit, N group inputs 61 ₁ - 61 _N of the model 6 data check unit are connected to the corresponding N group outputs 21 ₁ - 21 _N of the system model 2 unit, the control input 41 of the failure signal generation unit 4 is connected to the control output 76 of the model 7 data correction unit and to the control output 66 of the check unit data of model 6, the control input 67 of which is connected to the control output 26 of the block of the model of system 2, while N group outputs 35 ₁ - 35 _{N of the} block of simulators of the states of sections of the system 3 are connected to information inputs 81 ₁ - 81 _{N of the} corresponding N controllers of the operational time of model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N , information outputs 83 ₁ - 83 _{N of} which are connected to the corresponding group inputs 25 ₁ - 25 _N of the mod block whether system 2, the correcting inputs 27 ₁ - 27 _{N of} which are connected to the correcting outputs 84 ₁ - 84 _{N of the} corresponding N operating time controllers of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N. Correction inputs 82 ₁ - 82 _N N of the operating time controllers of model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _{N are} connected to the corresponding outputs 92 ₁ - 92 _{N of the} main operating time controller 9, inputs 91 ₁ - 91 _{N of} which are the corresponding N inputs "Correction of operating time" 01 ₁ - 01 _N device. The information output 44 of the failure signal generation unit 4 is connected to the information input 104 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, the test input 105 of which is connected to the output 111 of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11, the control input 114 of which is the input “Input of the threshold values of the number of failures” of the device, warning output 101 of the catastrophe analysis block 10 is the "Catastrophe threat" output of the device. The reset output 17 of the control unit 1 is connected to the reset input 32 of the block of simulators of the states of sections of the system 3, the reset input 22 of the block of the model of system 2, the reset input 42 of the block for generating signals of failures 4, the reset input 52 of the registration unit 5, the reset input 62 of the data check unit of the model 6 , a reset input 72 of the model 7 data correction unit, a reset input 102 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, a reset input 112 of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and a reset input 122 of the interval mean analysis unit 12, the signal input 125 of which is connected to the signal output 45 of the signal generating unit failures 4. The synchronizing output 13 of the control unit 1 is connected to the synchronizing input 33 of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3, the synchronizing input 23 of the block of the system model 2, the synchronizing input 43 of the block for generating signals of failures 4, the synchronizing input 53 of the registration unit 5, the synchronizing input 63 of the checking unit data m model 6, the synchronizing input 73 of the data correction unit of model 7, the synchronizing input 103 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, the synchronizing input 113 of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and the synchronizing input 123 of the interval mean analysis unit 12, the signal output 127 of which is connected to the signal input 55 of the unit registration 5, the information input 54 of which is connected to the information output 126 of the interval averages analysis unit 12. The information output 106 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 is connected to the information input 124 of the interval averages analysis unit 12, the first operator output 120 of the interval averages analysis unit 12 is the “Interval averages reliability values "of the device, the second operator output 121 of the interval average analysis unit 12 is the output of the" Interval average quality values "of the device.

The number "N, (N ≥ 2)" (elements, inputs, outputs, etc.) is determined in accordance with the possible number of sections of the investigated production, information or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 50 ( fifty).

The number "M, (M ≥ 2)" characterizes the possible number of aggregates of a section of the investigated production, information or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 20 (twenty).

The number "L, (L ≥ 2)" characterizes the possible number of parallel working sections of the investigated industrial, information or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 20 (twenty).

The number "K, (K ≥ 2)" characterizes the possible maximum number of system failures over the entire cycle of its operation, is used in the interest of obtaining the parameters of the empirical distribution of the operating time of a production, information or telecommunication system between failures and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 500 (five hundred).

The number "q, (q ∈ Q; Q ≥ 1)" characterizes the possible number of failures (number of failures) per unit of time, where Q is the maximum possible number of one-time failures, errors, technical or software failures, untimely execution of operational tasks, etc. ., arising (almost simultaneously) for a minimum unit of time t (for example, a minute), set in the form of clock cycles of device operation. This number varies within q = 1, 2, ..., Q and, as a rule, ranges from 1 (one) to 50 (fifty).

The number "T, (T ≥ 1; T = (t) + (t + l) + (t + 2) + ... + (T))" characterizes the entire possible time interval for performing a shift task (consisting of operational time intervals for each separate of the tasks within this shift task t, t + 1, t + 2, ..., T), set from the synchronizing output of the control unit, or determined by the main controller of operational time (as the sum of operational times) included in the general structural diagram, and , as a rule, ranges from 1 (one) to 50 (fifty).

The number "j, (j ∈ J; J ≥ 1)" characterizes the possible number of states {S ₁ , S ₂ , ..., S _j , ..., S _J } of the reliability (or quality) indicator of the PITS, where J is the maximum possible number of states ... This number varies within j = 1, 2, 3, ..., J and, as a rule, ranges from 1 (one) to 50 (fifty).

The block for analysis of interval averages 12 is intended for the implementation of the procedure for obtaining (calculating) interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the operation of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users), as well as output to the user (operator, administrator ) system of assessment data - interval assessments of reliability and quality, averaged over the observation period, for making informed decisions on the optimal control of the PITS.

The block analysis of interval averages 12 (Fig. 2) consists of a central calculator 12.1, primary 12.2 and secondary 12.3 RAM. In this case, the T inputs B (B ₁ - B _T ) of the central calculator 12.1 are combined and are the signal input 125 of the interval mean analysis unit 12, G inputs A (A ₁ - _AT ) of the central calculator 12.1 are combined and are the information input 124 of the block, the carry input With _{0 of the} central calculator 12.1 is a reset input 122 of the block, the clock input T and input 0 _{E of the} resolution of the data outputs Y of the central calculator 12.1 are combined and are the synchronization input 123 of the interval average analysis unit 12. The inverse output of the transfer generation G of the central calculator 12.1 is connected to the enable inputs 12.2 -2 and 12.3-2 of the primary 12.2 and 12.3 secondary RAM, respectively, the basic outputs 12.2-3 and 12.3-3 of which are respectively the information 126 and signal 127 outputs of the block, the first Y ₁ and the second Y ₂ data outputs of the central calculator 12.1 are connected to the basic inputs respectively 12.2-1 and 12.3-1 primary 12.2 and secondary 12.3 RAM. Operator output 12.2-4 of the primary RAM 12.2 is the first operator output 120 of the interval mean 12 analysis block and the output of the "Interval average reliability values" of the device, the operator output 12.3-4 of the secondary RAM 12.3 is the second operator output 121 of the interval averages analysis block 12 and the "Interval average quality values "of the device.

The central calculator 12.1 of the interval averages analysis unit 12 (see Fig. 2) is designed to carry out the procedure for calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (all the time of the service session to users). The central computer 12.1 is a serially produced, expandable and programmable microprocessor section (MPS or MPS - Micro-Processoring Section) with high speed, such as MPS KM1804BC1, traditionally used in peripheral controllers, discrete automation and digital control devices and described, for example, in [Fundamentals of electronics: textbook for open source software / O.V. Milovzorov, I. G. Pankov. - 5th ed., Rev. and additional - M .: Yurayt Publishing House, 2016 .-- 407 p. S. 231-233, fig. 4.4.4].

Primary RAM 12.2 of the block for analysis of interval averages 12 (see Fig. 2) is intended for recording, storing and issuing to the information output of the block of step-by-step signals of failures (values of the current reliability parameters), for recording, storing and issuing to the first operator output of the block and to the output "Interval average values of reliability" of the device of the obtained results - interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability indicator of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task (the entire time of the session of providing services to users), i.e., displaying the estimated data to the user (operator, administrator) - interval estimates of reliability averaged over the observation period. Primary RAM 12.2 block for analysis of interval averages 12 can be technically implemented on the basis of commercially available programmable dynamic RAM, in accordance with the description presented in [Fundamentals of electronics: textbook for SPO / O. V. Milovzorov, I. G. Pankov. - 5th ed., Rev. and additional - M .: Yurayt Publishing House, 2016 .-- 407 p. S. 229-231, fig. 4.3.2].

Secondary RAM 12.3 of the block for analysis of interval averages 12 (see Fig. 2) is intended for recording, storing and issuing to the signal output of the block of step-by-step signals about the execution of operational tasks (values of the current quality parameters), for recording, storing and issuing to the second operator output of the block and to the output "Interval average quality values" of the device of the obtained results - interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the quality indicator of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users), i.e., output to the user (operator, administrator ) estimated data - interval quality assessments averaged over the observation period. Secondary RAM 12.2 block for analysis of interval averages 12 can also be technically implemented on the basis of a commercially available programmable dynamic RAM, in accordance with [Fundamentals of electronics: textbook for SPO / O. V. Milovzorov, I. G. Pankov. - 5th ed., Rev. and additional - M .: Yurayt Publishing House, 2016.-407 p. S. 229-231, fig. 4.3.2].

Control unit 1 (Fig. 3), included in the general block diagram, is designed to generate control signals - level "0" (the mode when the device blocks are reset) or level "1" (corresponding to the "Operation" mode), generation clock pulses that ensure the operation of the device in certain cycles (times for the execution of shift tasks) and the generation of single pulses that synchronize the operation of a number of units of the device according to the readings of the operational time. The structure of the control unit 1 is known, described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, published 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15, Fig. 7), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 4) and illustrated in Fig. 3 of this description. The control unit 1 (see Fig. 3) contains a pulse shaper 1.1, a clock pulse generator 1.2, a switch 1.3, an I element 1.4, a synchronous counter 1.5 and a decoder 1.6.

The block of the model of system 2, included in the general structural diagram, is intended for modeling the process of functioning of interconnected sections of a specific production, information or telecommunication system, an example of the structure of which is shown in Fig. 4. The structural diagram of the block of the model of system 2 is known, includes N model elements of the system section, interconnected in accordance with the structure of the production, information or telecommunication system, is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, published 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15, Fig. 5), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18 , G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, fig. 6) and shown in fig. 5 of this description, where, as an example, the number of sections is N = 6 and the sections are designated by Latin numerals I, II, III, IV, V, VI and Arabic numerals 2.1-2.N. In this case, the correcting inputs of the N model elements of the system section 2.1-2.N are the correcting inputs 27 ₁ - 27 _{N of the} block of the system model 2.

) из участков системы, детально описана в (см. патент РФ №2551793 «Устройство для прогнозирования случайных событий» МПК G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08,27.05.2015, Бюл. №15, фиг. 6), в прототипе (см. патент РФ №2705010 «Устройство для прогнозирования случайных событий» МПК G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, опубликованный 01.11.2019, Бюл. №31, фиг. 7) и проиллюстрирована в качестве примера для некоторого n-ого модельного элемента участка системы 2.n (

) на фиг. 6 данного описания. При этом n-ый модельный элемент участка системы 2.n (см. фиг. 6) содержит с первого по четвертый элементы ИЛИ 2.n.1 - 2.n.4, L элементов И 2.n.5₁-2.n.5_L, первичный элемент И 2.n.6, вторичный элемент И 2.n.7, первичный триггер 2.n.8, вторичный триггер 2.n.9, первичный счетчик 2.n.10, вторичный счетчик 2.n.11, первичный корректируемый дешифратор 2.n.12 и вторичный дешифратор 2.n.13. Причем корректирующий вход 2.n.12-3 первичного корректируемого дешифратора 2.n.12 является корректирующим входом 2.n-7 n-го модельного элемента участка системы 2.n и соответствующим корректирующим входом 27_n блока модели системы 2.Each of the model elements of the system section 2.1-2.N (Fig. 6) of the system model block 2 is designed to simulate the cyclic process of functioning of one of the sections of the production, information or telecommunication system, taking into account failures and restorations occurring at random times and taking into account the correction operational times for the execution of individual operational tasks and the execution time for the entire shift task as a whole on a specific model element of the system section. The structure of each of the model elements of the system section 2.1-2.N is known, is identical for any n-th (

) from sections of the system is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, May 27, 2015, bull. No. 15, Fig. 6 ), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 7) and is illustrated as an example for some n-th model element of the system section 2.n (

) in Fig. 6 of this description. In this case, the n-th model element of the section of the system 2.n (see Fig. 6) contains from the first to the fourth elements OR 2.n.1 - 2.n.4, L elements AND 2.n.5 ₁ -2. n.5 _L , primary AND 2.n.6, secondary AND 2.n.7, primary 2.n.8, secondary 2.n.9, primary 2.n.10, secondary 2 .n.11, primary corrected decoder 2.n.12 and secondary decoder 2.n.13. Moreover, the correcting input 2.n.12-3 of the primary corrected decoder 2.n.12 is the correcting input 2.n-7 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n and the corresponding correcting input 27 _n of the system model block 2.

The block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 (Fig. 7), included in the general structural diagram, is intended to simulate the cyclic process of the functioning of the production, information or telecommunication system, taking into account the failures and restorations of the aggregates of the section occurring at random moments in time. The structure of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of system 3 is known and is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15 , Fig. 8), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, Bul. No. 31, Fig. 8) and is presented in fig. 7 of this description. The block of simulators of the states of sections of system 3 (see Fig. 7) consists of N ≥ 2 simulators of states of sections of the system 3.1-3.N, each of which contains, for example, for a simulator of states of sections of the system 3.1: element I 3.1.1, one-shot 3.1 .2, counter 3.1.3, decoder 3.1.4, element NOT 3.1.5, M ≥ 2 generators of random impulses 3.1.61 - 3.1.6M, element AND-OR-NOT 3.1.7 and element OR 3.1.8.

The block for generating signals of failures 4 (Fig. 8), which is included in the general block diagram, is intended for registration and decoding of the results of modeling the system, coming from the control output of the block for checking the data of model 6 or the block for correcting the data of model 7, as well as for accounting and forming the number of operational time of operational tasks - the numerical values of the number of products manufactured by the production system or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the information or telecommunication system for the current operational time. The block diagram of the failure signal generation unit 4 is known and described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15 , Fig. 9), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, Bul. No. 31, Fig. 9), and is shown in FIG. 8 of this description. The block for generating signals of failures 4 (see Fig. 8) contains the OR element 4.1, the main 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters, the main 4.4 and additional 4.5 decoders.

The registration unit 5 (Fig. 9), included in the general structural diagram, is designed to register and record data on the current numerical values of the reliability and quality indicators of the production, information or telecommunication system. The structure of the registration unit 5 is known, described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15, Fig. 10), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 10) and is presented in Fig. 9 of this description. The registration unit 5 (see Fig. 9) consists of the main element AND 5.1, K (where K ≥ 2) elements AND 5.2 ₁ - 5.2 _K , frequency divider 5.3, element OR 5.4, primary 5.5, secondary 5.6 and tertiary 5.7 counters, K ≥ 2 counters 5.8 ₁ - 5.8 _K , quaternary counter 5.9, primary 5.10, secondary 5.11, tertiary 5.12 and quaternary 5.13 decoders, one-shot 5.14, switch 5.15 and element NOT 5.16.

The data verification unit of model 6 (Fig. 10), included in the general structural diagram, is designed to analyze and register the true values of the parameters of the simulated signals characterizing the belonging of a particular state signal to the state space of the system's faultless operation (performing operational tasks in operational time) or to the space failures, as well as for converting data that are ambiguously identified (unreliable, incomplete) to a form suitable for obtaining unambiguous (reliable) results of predicting random events, i.e. converting from parallel code to serial, for the purpose of subsequent recognition. The structure of the data verification unit of model 6 is known and is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, Bul. No. 15, Fig. 11), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 11) and is presented in Fig. ... 10 of this description. The model data check unit 6 (see Fig. 10) consists of the initial data selector 6.1 and the invalid data converter 6.2.

The data correction unit of model 7 (Fig. 11), included in the general structural diagram, is intended for recording, storing the results of data analysis and mathematically correct recognition (determination) of parameters obtained as a result of modeling a production, information or telecommunication process, the ratio of which characterizes the state of failure-free system operation (execution of operational tasks in operational time) or the opposite state - system failure, and converting this data from sequential code to parallel in order to subsequently continue modeling the production, information or telecommunication process. The structure of the data correction unit of model 7 is known and is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, bull. No. 15, Fig. 12), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 12) and is presented in Fig. ... 11 of this description. The data correction unit of the model 7 consists (see Fig. 11) of a programmable calculator 7.1, primary 7.2 and secondary 7.3 storage elements.

The controllers of the operational time of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N (Fig. 12), included in the general structural diagram, are identical and are intended for decryption, additional comparison and control of the code, which causes new values of the operational times of execution of individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task in the whole on a specific model element of the system section. The structure of the operating time controller of the model elements (for example, the n-th controller) 8n, where n = 1, 2, ..., N, is known and described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15 / 46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, Bul. No. 15, Fig. 2), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7 / 00 published on 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, fig. 13) and is presented in fig. 12 of this description. The controller of the operational time of model elements (for example, the n-th controller) 8 _n , where n = 1, 2, ..., N, (see Fig. 12), consists of a decoder of the corrected operational time code 8.1 _n and a comparison-correction register of the operational time 8.2 _n .

The main operating time controller 9 (Fig. 13), included in the general structural diagram, is intended for dynamic correction of the values (boundaries) of the operational times of individual operational tasks and, as a consequence, the execution time of the entire shift task as a whole on a specific model element of any of N sections of the production, information or telecommunication system. The structure of the main operating time controller 9 is known and is described in detail in (see RF patent No. 2551793 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 15/46, G06F 17/18, G06N 7/08, 05/27/2015, Bul. No. 15, Fig. 3), in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 14) and is presented in Fig. ... 13 of this description. The main controller of the operational time 9 (see Fig. 13) consists of a recording element of the operational time 9.1 and an element for storing the new value of the operational time 9.2.

The catastrophe analysis unit 10 (Fig. 14), included in the general structural diagram, is designed to identify and verify the states of the boundary, emergency (catastrophic) number of system failures with smooth changes in the parameters of external conditions and control actions, as well as for generating signals of logical zero or logical units (prediction and warning signals), characterizing, respectively, the absence or presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures. The structure of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 is known and is described in detail in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 2) and is shown in FIG. 14 of this description. The catastrophe analysis unit 10 (Fig. 14) consists of a central RAM 10.0, N executive RAM 10.1 ₁ - 10.1 _N , a read-only memory (ROM) 10.2, an iterative comparison element 10.3, a comparison element 10.4, an intermediate RAM 10.5, an intermediate element I 10.6 and element AND 10.7.

The block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 (Fig. 15), included in the general structural diagram, is designed to form the admissible value of the number of one-time failures of the system, when exceeding the values of which the system is likely to go into an emergency (catastrophic) state, to form a sequence of threshold values the number of one-time system failures, as well as for generating a signal of a logical zero or logical unit, characterizing, respectively, the prohibition or permission of the administrator (operator) to issue a warning signal about the presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures of the production, information or telecommunication system. The structure of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 is known and described in detail in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 3) and is shown in Fig. 15 of this description. The unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 (Fig. 15) consists of a check RAM 11.0 and a counter 11.1.

The device for predicting random events works as follows. It is known [1-6] that from the point of view of ensuring an increase in the reliability of modeling, forecasting and assessing the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible production, information and telecommunication systems, from the point of view of implementing interval analysis procedures and notifying the user (operator, administrator) of the system on the estimated data (interval estimates, estimates averaged over the observation period) for him to make informed decisions on the management of the PITS, it is possible to obtain interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (all the time of the session providing services to users).

This feature is implemented on the basis of interval analysis algorithms, i.e. statistical analysis of interval observations, which makes it possible to calculate the upper and lower average levels of reliability and quality of PITS for the entire time interval of a shift task based on the available average values of the attributes (current parameters) of its reliability and quality for individual intervals of operational time, using the methods of the theory of interval averages.

Obviously, when predicting random events in conditions of constantly changing and heterogeneous initial information obtained through various observation channels, there is an objective need not only to combine various methods of describing uncertainties and to be able to process heterogeneous, often incomplete and fuzzy observation information, but also to obtain interval ( boundary upper and lower) estimates of the indicators of reliability and quality of functioning of the PITS during the entire shift task (the time of the session of providing services to users).

Analysis of works [1-6] and possible practical implementations of methods of the theory of interval averages in the problems of analyzing the quality or security of complex technical systems set forth in [7-9], allows us to conclude that it is possible to implement reliable forecasting of random events, the possibility of increasing the level of reliability of modeling and assessing the reliability and quality of functioning of complex systems based on the technical implementation of the procedures for calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the operation of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (during the entire session of providing services to users).

The construction of a device for predicting random events based on the proposed principle of operation allows you to gain an advantage over the prototype, providing an increase in the reliability of modeling and forecasting random events due to the possibility of obtaining interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of the operation of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task ( all the time of the session of providing services to users), providing a wider range of application of the device, due to its ability to simulate and predict random events taking into account the constantly changing and heterogeneous initial information received through various observation channels and taking into account the dynamics of changes in random events over the entire time interval of the shift tasks, which is extremely important for optimal control of systems of this class.

The technical implementation of modeling and interval estimation procedures (statistical analysis of interval observations) using the methods of the theory of interval averages in the claimed device was carried out by the implementation (introduction) of procedures for calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability and quality of operation of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task , all the time of the session of providing services to users (in the claimed device, they are implemented within the framework of the interval average analysis unit 12), as well as notifying the user (operator, administrator) of the system about the estimated data, i.e., interval estimates, estimates averaged over the observation period ( in the declared device - outputs "Interval average values of reliability" and "Interval average values of quality" of the device).

With this in mind, the claimed device predicts random events, where, along with modeling and estimation (forecasting) in conditions when the number of one-time failures of the PITS can smoothly change under the influence of control actions or external factors, creating a potential danger of its blocking (collapse), calculations of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of operation of the PITS, averaged over the observation period - for the entire time of the shift task (all the time of the user service session), which leads to an increase in the level of modeling reliability and assessment of the reliability and quality of production, information or telecommunication systems in real conditions in which they have to function, as well as expanding the scope of the device.

) блока модели системы 2, счетчик 3.1.3 блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3, основной 4.2 и дополнительный 4.3 счетчики блока формирования сигналов отказов 4, первичный 5.5, вторичный 5.6, третичный 5.7, четверичный 5.9 счетчики, K счетчиков 5.8₁ - 5.8_K блока регистрации 5, 6.1 селектор исходных данных и 6.2 преобразователь недостоверных данных блока проверки данных модели 6, программируемый вычислитель 7.1 блока коррекции данных модели 7, центральное ОЗУ 10.0 блока анализа катастроф 10, счетчик 11.1 блока задания пороговых значений количества отказов 11 и центральный вычислитель 12.1 блока анализа интервальных средних 12.Before starting the operation of the device, using the switch 1.3 of the control unit 1 (see Fig. 3), the second input 1.4-2 of the element I 1.4 of the control unit 1 and the strobe input 3.1.4-2 of the decoder 3.1.4 of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 are supplied "0". Then, from the output 1.1-1 of the pulse shaper 1.1 through the reset output 17 of the control unit 1, a short pulse is sent to set the device blocks to their initial state. This pulse resets the synchronous counter 1.5 of control unit 1, primary 2.n.10 and secondary 2.n.11 counters of each of the model elements of the system section (in our example, element 2.n, where

) block of the system model 2, counter 3.1.3 of the block of simulators of the states of system sections 3, main 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters of the block for generating signals of failures 4, primary 5.5, secondary 5.6, tertiary 5.7, quaternary 5.9 counters, K counters 5.8 ₁ - 5.8 _K block registration 5, 6.1 selector of initial data and 6.2 converter of invalid data of the data verification unit of model 6, programmable calculator 7.1 of the data correction unit of model 7, central RAM 10.0 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, counter 11.1 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and the central calculator 12.1 of the analysis unit interval averages 12.

) модельного элемента участков системы. Кроме того, при получении данного импульса первичный 2.n.8 и вторичный 2.n.9 триггеры каждого из модельных элементов участка системы (в нашем случае - на примере некоторого элемента 2.n - фиг. 6) блока модели системы 2 и делитель частоты 5.3 блока регистрации 5 устанавливаются в единичное состояние, М генераторов случайных импульсов 3.1.6₁ - 3.1.6_M каждого из имитаторов 3.1-3.N блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3 приводятся в исходное состояние, соответствующее работоспособному состоянию всех агрегатов производственной, информационной или телекоммуникационной системы. После этого устройство готово к работе.Setting the initial values of the operational time t for the execution of individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times) consists in setting the "Operational time correction" 01 ₁ - 01 _{N of the} device at each of the N inputs (see Fig. 1) through the correcting inputs 82 ₁ - 82 _{N of the} corresponding controllers of the operational time of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N and the correcting inputs 27 ₁ - 27 _N of the system model block 2 to the correcting inputs 2.1-7-2.7 N-7 of the model elements of the system sections 2.1 - 2.N and to the correcting inputs 2.1.12-3-2.N.12-3 of the primary corrected decoders 2.1.12-2.N.12 (see Fig. 6) of the logical values of the code that sets the initial value of the operational execution time t individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times) for each n-th (

) of the model element of the system sections. In addition, when this pulse is received, the primary 2.n.8 and secondary 2.n.9 triggers of each of the model elements of the system section (in our case, using the example of some element 2.n - Fig. 6) of the system model block 2 and the divider the frequencies 5.3 of the registration unit 5 are set to a single state, M generators of random pulses 3.1.6 ₁ - 3.1.6 _{M of} each of the simulators 3.1-3.N of the block of simulators of the states of sections of the system 3 are reset to the initial state corresponding to the operable state of all units of production, information or telecommunication system. The device is then ready for use.

Using switch 1.3 of control unit 1, level “1” is supplied, corresponding to the “Operation” mode, to the second input 1.4-2 of elements I 1.4 of control unit 1 (at the first input 1.4-1 of which there is “1” at this moment) and to the strobe input 3.1.4-2 of the decoder 3.1.4 of the block of simulators of the states of sections of the system 3, thereby enabling its operation. At the output 1.4-4 of elements I 1.4 of the control unit 1, pulses of the clock pulse generator 1.2 appear, the pulse distributor on the synchronous counter 1.5 and decoder 1.6 begins to work. At the M control outputs 14 ₁ - 14 _M of the control unit 1, single pulses appear in turn, synchronizing the operation of the entire device. Control outputs 14 ₁ - 14 _M of the control unit 1 are connected to the control inputs 24 ₁ - 24 _M of the system model block 2, connected to the control inputs 2.n-2 ₁ - 2.n-2 _{M of} each of the model elements of the system section (in our case - using the example of element 2.n, see Fig. 6) of the block of the model of system 2.

) блока модели системы 2, совместно с соответствующим имитатором 3.n (

) состояния участков системы блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3) предназначен для моделирования циклического процесса функционирования одного из участков производственной, информационной или телекоммуникационной системы с учетом отказов и восстановлений агрегатов участка, происходящих в случайные моменты времени.Each of the N model elements of a section of the system (for example, element 2.n (

) of the system model block 2, together with the corresponding simulator 3.n (

) the state of the sections of the system of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3) is intended to simulate the cyclic process of functioning of one of the sections of the production, information or telecommunication system, taking into account the failures and restorations of the aggregates of the section occurring at random times.

The operation of each of the N simulators of the states of the sections of the system of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 will be illustrated by the example of the simulator of the states of the sections of the system 3.1 (i.e., n = 1). Simulator of states of system sections 3.1. works as follows (Fig. 7).

The second input 3.1-3 of the simulator 3.1 (see Fig. 7) through the synchronizing input 33 of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 during the operation of the device receives a clock sequence of pulses from the synchronizing output 13 (from the output 1.6-3 of the decoder 1.6) of the control unit 1. In addition to Moreover, the clock sequence of pulses from the synchronizing output 13 of the control unit 1 is fed to the synchronizing input 23 of the system model block 2, the synchronizing input 43 of the failure signal generation unit 4, the synchronizing input 53 of the registration unit 5, the synchronizing input 63 of the model data check unit 6, the synchronizing input 73 the data correction unit of model 7, the synchronizing input 103 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, the synchronizing input 113 of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and the synchronizing input 123 of the interval mean analysis unit 12. The frequency of the sequence pulses sets the scale of modeling the process of functioning of production, information or bodies telecommunication system, i.e. the time interval between two adjacent pulses of the sequence corresponds to a certain real time interval of the production, information or telecommunication system operation - the time interval for the system to complete the entire shift task T, as the sum of operational times t (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) +… + (T)) to carry out individual operational tasks within a shift task.

At the third input 3.1-4 of the simulator 3.1 (see Fig. 7) during the operation of the device, there is a single signal coming through the control input 34 of the block of simulators of the states of the system sections 3 from the control output 15 of the control unit 1. At the fourth input 3.1-1 of the simulator 3.1 connected to one of the N possible group outputs 71 ₁ - 71 _N of the model 7 data correction unit and to one of the N possible group outputs 68 ₁ - 68 _N of the model data check unit, a single signal appears at the moment of receipt of a product requiring processing (requiring service user) to the system site. On the leading edge of this signal, the one-shot 3.1.2 generates a short pulse that resets the counter 3.1.3 of the simulator of the states of the sections of the system 3.1 of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 to zero.

) агрегата во включенном состоянии (принимается допущение, что в выключенном состоянии износа агрегата не происходит и он отказать не может).Counter 3.1.3 and decoder 3.1.4 (Fig. 7) are used to distribute pulses - setting the time cyclogram (cycles of operational time and execution time of the entire shift task) of the work of the units of the section of the production, information or telecommunication system. After resetting the counter 3.1.3 to zero, clock pulses begin to arrive at its counter input 3.1.3-1. The moments of switching on and off of individual units of the section are modeled by the appearance and disappearance of single pulses at the outputs corresponding to the units 3.1.4-3 ₁ - 3.1.4-3 _M decoder 3.1.4. A single signal from the m-th (m = 1, ..., M) output 3.1.4-3 _{m of the} decoder 3.1.4 is fed to the control input 3.1.6-2 _{m of the} m-th random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m and provides processes simulating a possible failure of the m-th (

) the unit in the on state (it is assumed that in the off state the unit does not wear out and cannot fail).

) агрегат находится в работоспособном состоянии, чему соответствует нулевой сигнал на выходе 3.1.6-3_m m-го генератора случайных импульсов 3.1.6_m, на выходе 3.1.7-3 элемента И-ИЛИ-НЕ 3.1.7 присутствует единичный сигнал, поступающий через соответствующий (в нашем случае первый) групповой выход 351 блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3 на информационный вход 811 соответствующего (в нашем случае первого) контроллера оперативного времени модельных элементов 81, а затем, после проверки в блоке 81 соответствия текущему или вновь введенному значению оперативного времени t выполнения отдельных оперативных заданий и времени выполнения всего сменного задания Т в целом (как суммы этих оперативных времен) на конкретном, в нашем случае первом, модельном элементе участка системы, на соответствующий, в нашем случае первый, групповой вход 251 блока модели системы 2. Это свидетельствует о нормальном ходе технологического, информационного или телекоммуникационного процесса на n-ом (в нашем случае первом, n=1, где n может принимать значения

) участке производственной, информационной или телекоммуникационной системы.In case the m-th (

) the unit is in working condition, which corresponds to a zero signal at the output 3.1.6-3 _{m of the} m-th random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m , at the output 3.1.7-3 of the AND-OR-NOT element 3.1.7 there is a single signal, arriving through the corresponding (in our case, the first) group output 351 of the block of simulators of the states of the sections of the system 3 to the information input 811 of the corresponding (in our case, the first) controller of the operational time of the model elements 81, and then, after checking in the block 81 the correspondence to the current or newly entered value operational time t for the execution of individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times) on a specific, in our case, the first, model element of the system section, to the corresponding, in our case, the first, group input 251 of the system model block 2. This indicates the normal course of the technological, information or telecommunication process on the nth (in our case first, n = 1, where n can take the values

) a site of an industrial, information or telecommunication system.

If the m-th unit fails at the time when it should, according to the cyclogram, participate in the processing of the product (in the transmission of information), then _{a single signal appears at the output 3.1.6-3 m of the} m-th random pulse generator 3.1.6m, and at the output 3.1 .7-3 aND-OR-NO 3.1.7 - zero signal which, via appropriate controller operative time model elements 81 is transmitted to the input 25 of group ₁ system model block 2 and perceived system model unit 2 as a signal of violation technological progress, information or a telecommunication process at the n-th (in our case - the first, where n = 1, ..., N) section of the production, information or telecommunication system. In this case, the counter 3.1.3 and the decoder 3.1.4 (Fig. 7) stop until the restoration of the failed unit of the production, information or telecommunication system (it is assumed that the failures of the units are of a non-depreciating nature). Thus, the operational time spent by a section of a production, information or telecommunication system for processing one product (or providing one information or telecommunication service), when simulating failures of units, increases by the time of restoring their operational state.

The distribution laws (and their parameters) of the pulse duration at the output of the generator of random pulses 3.1.6m (recovery time of the m-th unit) and the duration of pauses between them (the operable state of the unit) are selected on the basis of statistical data on the MTBF and recovery time of units operating in similar industrial, informational or telecommunication systems.

After at the n-th (in our case - the first, where n = 1, ..., N) section, the processing of the product (service provision) is completed, a single signal appears at the (M + 1) -th output 3.1.4-3 _{M +1} decoder 3.1.4 and through the inverter - the element NOT 3.1.5 prohibits the passage of clock pulses to the input 3.1.3-1 of the counter 3.1.3. The counter 3.1.3 and the decoder 3.1.4 stop until the moment the simulator of the states of the system sections 3.n (in our example, 3.1) arrives at the fourth input 3.1 of the leading edge of the next pulse corresponding to the arrival of the next product (order for the provision of the next information or telecommunication services).

Information on the progress of the technological, informational or telecommunication process at the sections comes from N group outputs 35 ₁ - 35 _{N of the} block of simulators of the states of system sections 3 through information inputs 81 ₁ - 81 _N and information outputs 83 ₁ - 83 _{N of the} corresponding N operating time controllers of model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N (Fig. 12), and further, through N group inputs 25 ₁ - 25 _N of the system model block 2 (Fig. 5) to the third inputs 2.n-3 of each n-th of N model elements of the system section (in our example - to the inputs of element 2.n, see Fig. 6). The operation of each of the N model elements of the system section (Fig. 6) will be considered on the example of the functioning of some abstract n-th (where n = 1, ..., L, ..., N) model element of the system section 2.n. The model element of the system section 2.n works as follows (Fig. 6). After applying to the first input 2.n-1 of the model element of the system section 2.n of the pulse to set the initial state of the device, the primary trigger 2.n.8 is in the single state, the secondary trigger 2.n.9, the primary 2.n.10 and the secondary 2.n.11 counters - at zero. Primary trigger 2.n.8 is designed to record the presence of a product on the site, the secondary trigger 2.n.9 - to record the fact of the end of processing the item by the units of the site (completion of the next phase of the technological, information or telecommunication process).

Modeling of the process of functioning of the PITS sections is carried out immediately after setting the "Operation" mode using switch 1.3 of the control unit 1. A single signal causing the presence on the nth (where n = 1, ..., L, ..., N) of N possible sections requiring processing products, from direct output 2. ". 8-3 of the primary trigger 2.n.8 is fed to one of the N group inputs 61 ₁ - 61 _N of the model 6 data check unit for the selection procedure of status signals characterized by unambiguous (reliable, complete) and ambiguous (unreliable, incomplete) parameters (there may also be single signals at other of the N group inputs 61 ₁ - 61 _N of the model data check unit, which determine the presence on L parallel working sections of products requiring processing) and in accordance with the decision made on the logical and mathematical the nature of these parameters, this single signal arrives immediately at the input of the corresponding n-th simulator of the state of the system section 3.n It starts at the input 74 of the data correction unit as part of the N-bit code for control recognition, and only then a single state signal characterized by unambiguous (reliable, complete) parameters is fed to the input of the corresponding n-th simulator of the state of the system section 3.n and starts counter 3 .n.3 and decoder 3.n.4, operating in accordance with the cyclogram of the functioning of the units of the production, information or telecommunication system. The signal from the output 3.n-5 of the corresponding n-th simulator of the state of the system section 3.n is fed through the corresponding n-th controller of the operational time of the model elements 8 _n to the third input 2.n-3 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n ... If the unit of the section, which is currently processing the product at a given time, is in a working state (a single signal at the third input 2.n-3 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n), then clock pulses from the first 2.n-1 and from the second 2.n-2 ₁ - 2.n-2 _M inputs of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n come through the primary 2.n.6 and secondary 2.n.7 elements AND to the counting inputs 2.n. 10-1 and 2.n.11-2 of the primary 2.n.10 and secondary 2.n.11 counters, respectively (see Fig. 6). If the unit of the section, which is processing the product at a given time, fails, then at the third input 2.n-3 of the model element of the section of the system 2.n, a zero level signal appears and the content of the secondary counter 2.n.11 stops increasing.

Secondary counter 2.n.11 (see Fig. 6) records the net (excluding stoppages of the technological, information or telecommunication process due to unit failures) processing time of the product (provision of information or telecommunication services) at the site, the primary counter 2.n. 10 - the time it stays there until the completion of the processing (the moment of the end of the provision of the service).

The primary corrected decoder 2.n.12 (see Fig. 6) is configured for the corrected binary code of the operational time t of performing individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times), i.e. the code of the current or newly entered time allocated for the implementation of a specific operational task or the time for completing the entire shift task as a phase of the technological, information or telecommunication process. To the correcting input 2.n.12-3 of the primary corrected decoder 2.n.12 through the corresponding correcting input 2.n-7 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n and the corresponding correcting input 27 _n of the system model block 2 from the correcting output 84 _{n of the} corresponding «-th controller of the operational time of the model elements 8 _n , new values of the operational time t of performing individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times) on a specific ( in our case, the n-th) model element of the system section.

Secondary decoder 2.n.13 is set to the code of the operational time t required for processing the product (provision of telecommunication services) by faultlessly operating units of the site. The moment of the end of the processing of the product (the moment of the end of the provision of information or telecommunication services) is simulated by the appearance of a single signal at the output 2.n.13-2 of the secondary decoder 2.n.13 and setting the secondary trigger 2.n.9 to a single state. Secondary counter 2.n.11 is then reset to zero. At the second output 2.n-8 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n (see Fig. 6), a single signal appears, which means that the section has completed the corresponding phase of the technological, informational or telecommunication process and the product is ready for transmission to the next (n + 1 ) th section. At the inverse output 2.n.9-4 of the secondary flip-flop 2.n.9, a zero signal appears, which prohibits a further increase in the content of the primary counter 2.n.10.

A single signal from the second output 2.n-8 of the n-th model element of the section of the system 2.n (see Fig. 7), indicating the completion of the processing of the product by the section of the production, information or telecommunication system, arrives at the fifth input 2. (n + 1) -5 of the next (n + 1) -th model element of the system section 2. (n + 1) performing the next phase of the technological, information or telecommunication process. If this section is ready to receive the product (a single signal at the inverse output of the primary trigger 2. (n + 1) .8), then the corresponding element AND 2. (n + 1) .5 ₁ (where 1 = 1, ..., L ) and the primary trigger 2. (n + 1) .8 goes into the single state. This simulates the acceptance of the product by the subsequent section. Simultaneously, a single signal from the direct output 2.n.9-3 of the secondary trigger 2.n.9 (see Fig. 6) is fed to the third output 2.n-9 of the model element receiving the item of the system section 2.n. This output is connected to the fourth input 2. (n-1) -4 of the previous (n-1) -th transmitting model element of the system section 2. (n-1), and a single signal sets the primary 2. (n-1) .8 , secondary 2. (n-1) .9 triggers and primary counter 2. (n - 1) .10 of the (n - 1) -th transmitting model element of the system section 2. (n - 1) to the zero state. Thus, the release of a section of a production, information or telecommunication system and its readiness to receive the next product for processing is modeled. If the next, in our example, some (n + 1) -th section from N, is not ready to receive the product (i.e. at this moment the product is already being processed on it), then the product remains in the previous n-th section until it is released subsequent.

The presence of L elements I (2.n.5 ₁ - 2.n.5 _L ) in the model elements of the system section is necessary to synchronize the reception of products from several parallel operating sections to the section, performing the previous phase of the technological, information or telecommunication process. With the help of synchronization, the possibility of simulating the simultaneous reception of several products at the site is excluded, which is impossible in real production, information or telecommunication systems of the class under consideration. If the processing of the product by the n-th section is completed after the expiration of the current operational time t, (from the set of operational times that add up to the time of the shift task T), then at the time of its completion, at the output 2.n.12-2 of the primary corrected decoder 2. n.12 a single signal appears, which is fed to the second output 2.n-8 of the n-th model element of the system section 2.n. This signal indicates a failure of a section of a production, information or telecommunication system.

The failure of a section of the system is considered to be the untimely execution of private operational tasks of the shift task, i.e. the failure of the production, information or telecommunication system is recorded when the operational time has expired, and the operational private task from the shift task has not yet been completed (no information or telecommunications service has been provided for this operational time).

The block of the model of system 2 (Fig. 5) within the framework (as an example) of the PITS structure, the diagram of which is shown in Fig. 4 works as follows. The production, information or telecommunication system consists of N = 6 sections, some of which (III, IV, V) have low productivity and therefore work in parallel, implementing one of the phases of the technological, information or telecommunication process. When constructing a block of a model of a production, information or telecommunication system (Fig. 5), it is assumed that at the input of such a system there is an unlimited supply of raw materials (resources) for the production of products or the provision of information or telecommunication services. This is simulated by feeding from the synchronizing input 23 to the fifth input 2.1-5 of the first model element of the section of the system 2.1 of level "1". It is also assumed that the acceptance of finished products to the warehouse or the delivery of information and telecommunication services to subscribers from section VI is carried out without delay. Therefore, the fourth input 2.6-4 of the VI-th model element of the system section 2.6 is connected to its second output 2.6-8.

When simulating the process of manufacturing a product (providing information or telecommunications services), its transfer from a site that has completed the next phase of the technological, information or telecommunication process, to a site that implements the next phase is simulated. With the parallel operation of several sections (III, IV, V), the product is transferred to the one that is free at the time of transfer. If several sections are free, then the transfer of the product can be carried out to one of them in an arbitrary way. The number of parallel working sections in drawing up a system model and building a block of a system model 2 is limited by the number of L elements AND (2.n.5 ₁ - 2.n.5 _L ) in the model elements of a system section. The number of sequentially working sections when building a block of the model of system 2 is limited only by the number of sections available in a real production, information or telecommunication system.

Each of the N = 6 sections of the production, information, or telecommunication system can dynamically correct (see Fig. 4) the operational time t for performing individual operational tasks and the execution time of the entire shift task T as a whole (as the sum of these operational times).

When the device is operating, each pulse at the control output 26 of the system model block 2 corresponds to a product manufactured by the production system or an information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber in the operational time t. These pulses are fed to the control input 67, the data verification unit of the model 6 (Fig. 10), as well as to the N group input 61 ₁ - 61 _N of the data verification unit of the model 6 data is received on the presence of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing the subscriber with information or telecommunication system services) on n (where n = 1,…, L,…, N) model sections of the system. The procedure for selecting unambiguous (reliable, complete) and ambiguous (unreliable, incomplete) signals about the execution of operational tasks (within the entire shift task) and making a decision on the mathematical nature of these data is carried out in the initial data selector 6.1. Data at N group inputs of the model data verification unit, which are a priori (initially) authenticated as signals of the presence of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing a subscriber with an information or telecommunication service) by n (where n = 1, ..., L, ..., N) model sections of the system are fed to N group inputs of the initial data selector 6.1, which is designed to store a certain number of bits of incoming information in each cell. The pulses arriving at the control input R × D of the initial data selector 6.1 are a priori (initially) authenticated as signals about a product made by a production system or an information or telecommunication service delivered to a subscriber.

селектора исходных данных 6.1 поступает в двоичном коде команда, инициирующая запрет трансляции информации с TV групповых выходов селектора исходных данных 6.1 на соответствующие TV групповые выходы 68₁ - 68_N блока проверки данных модели 6. Последовательный код недостоверных (неполных, неоднозначных) данных с N-разрядного выхода преобразователя 6.2 через N-разрядный выход 64 блока проверки данных модели 6 поступает на 74 N-разрядный вход блока коррекции данных 7. С выхода T×D преобразователя 6.2 через сигнальный выход 65 блока проверки данных модели 6 на сигнальный вход 75 блока коррекции данных 7 поступает сигнал об изготовленном производственной системой изделии (или доведенной до абонента информационной или телекоммуникационной услуге) необходимый для процедуры проверки полноты (однозначности).If a single signal causing the presence on the nth (where n = 1, ..., L, ..., N) of N possible model areas of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber) is present on more than L out of N possible group inputs of the initial data selector, where L is the number of parallel working model sections, which means, from the point of view of mathematics, this code sequence contains redundancy, which causes the unreliability (incompleteness) of data characterizing the product made by the production system or the service delivered to the subscriber of the system. In this case, from the enable output MT of the input data selector 6.1 to the enable input DST of the converter 6.2, a command is sent in binary code that initiates the start of data recording characterizing ambiguous (unreliable, incomplete) signals about the presence of a product requiring processing at n> L out of N possible model areas (or applications for the provision of information or telecommunication services to a subscriber) and the beginning of converting this data from parallel code to serial. Invalid data converter 6.2 registers the data received through its TV group inputs, recognized by the initial data selector 6.1 as invalid (incomplete, ambiguous) and converts them from a parallel code to a serial one. In this case, from the inhibiting output of the DSR converter 6.2 to the inverse inhibiting input

of the initial data selector 6.1, a command is received in binary code that initiates the prohibition of broadcasting information from the TV group outputs of the initial data selector 6.1 to the corresponding TV group outputs 68 ₁ - 68 _N of the model data verification unit 6. Serial code of invalid (incomplete, ambiguous) data with N- bit output of the converter 6.2 through the N-bit output 64 of the model 6 data check unit is fed to the 74 N-bit input of the data correction unit 7. From the T × D output of the 6.2 converter through the signal output 65 of the model 6 data check unit to the signal input 75 of the data correction unit 7, a signal is received about the product manufactured by the production system (or information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber), which is necessary for the procedure for checking the completeness (unambiguity).

If from N group inputs 61 ₁ - 61 _N of the model 6 data check unit (Fig. 10), reliable (complete, unambiguous) data on the presence of n ≤ L from N possible model sections of the production system of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber), then, in this case, without receiving a corresponding command at its enabling input DST, the invalid data converter 6.2 locks its N-bit output and T × D, and the initial data selector 6.1 translates a parallel code characterizing unambiguous (reliable, complete) data on the presence at n ≤ L of N possible model sections of the production system of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing a subscriber with an information or telecommunication service), from its N group outputs 6.1-7 ₁ - 6.1-7 _N via corresponding N group outputs 68 ₁ - 68 _N block of checking the data of model 6 to the corresponding N group inputs 31 ₁ - 31 _N block of simulators of states of sections of the system 3 (Fig. 7), and from the T × D output of the initial data selector 6.1 through the control output 66 of the model data check unit 6 to the control input 41 of the failure signal generation unit 4 (Fig. 8) unambiguous (reliable, complete) signals are received - pulses about the manufactured production system product (or information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber).

Data characterizing ambiguous (unreliable, incomplete) signals about the presence at n ≥ L out of N possible model areas of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing a subscriber with an information or telecommunication service) defined in the data verification block of model 6 (Fig. 10) as ambiguous ( unreliable, incomplete), come from the N-bit output 64 of the data check unit 6 to the N-bit input 74, and the signal about the product made by the production system (or the information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber) is received from the signal output 65 of the data check unit of the model 6 to the signal input 75 of the model 7 data correction unit, which records, stores and registers the results of the recognition analysis and mathematically correct verification of n (n ≤ L) model areas where the product is manufactured. Transformation of certain (recognized) ambiguously initial data characterizing signals about the presence at n ≥ L out of N possible model areas of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing a subscriber with an information or telecommunication service) to a form suitable for unambiguous decision-making on which namely n ≥ L out of N possible model areas there is a product requiring processing (or an application for the provision of an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber), is carried out in the programmable calculator 7.1 of the data correction unit of model 7.

In this case, the programmable calculator 7.1 of the data correction unit of model 7 (see Fig. 11) is technically implemented on the basis of a programmable (from the point of view of a matrix of weights - causal cognitive opinions about the current parameters of the system state, formulated by experts) microprocessor section, which plays the role of a programmable parallel ALU, which implements a computational neural network algorithm (ENN), which is described in detail in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published 01.11.2019, bull. No. 31, Fig. 12). Ambiguously (inaccurately, incompletely) defined initial data characterizing signals about the presence of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber) at n ≥ L out of N possible model sections of the system, and the production of a product by the production system (or bringing the information or telecommunication services), are fed to the input 7.1-1 and the N-bit input 7.1-2 of the programmable calculator 7.1, which implements the functions of the programmable parallel ALU. A programmable computer 7.1, which implements the functions of a programmable parallel ALU, relying on the programmed values of the elements of the weight matrix - analytically described causal cognitive opinions about the data, formulated by experts, carries out the calculation (extrapolation) procedure in accordance with the computational neural network algorithm. In this case, the input cells E ₁ -E _N correspond to the bit (1, ..., N) of the sequential code arriving at the N-bit input 7.1-2 of the programmable calculator 7.1 and together with the synchronizing input 7.1-4 are equal (N + 1) inputs ( (N + 1) _in ) calculators (neurons) of the input layer S _{a of the} extrapolating neural network (ENN), on the N inputs of which the values of N bits of code are supplied, which has a physical meaning ambiguously (unreliable, incomplete) certain data on the presence of a product requiring processing (or applications for the provision of an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber) on n ≥ L out of N possible model sections of the system and on the (N + l) -th input - a signal that has a physical meaning ambiguously (unreliable, incomplete) certain data about the product made by the system (service provided) ). A set of direct and feedback links (N + 1) _in with (N + 1) _out ENS, software implemented within the programmable computer 7.1, allows you to take into account the weight coefficients formulated by experts in the form of cognitive maps and receive on N outputs 7.1-6 ₁ - 7.1 -6 _N programmable computer 7.1 extrapolated values of N bits of a parallel code that has the physical meaning of mathematically correct data on the presence of a product requiring processing (or an application for providing a subscriber with an information or telecommunication service) for n ≤ L out of N possible model sections of the production system, defined on on the basis of verified (reliable, complete) initial data and at the (N + 1) -th output 7.1-5 mathematically correct data on the product made by the production system or the service delivered to the subscriber. In this case, feeding to the n-th, where n = 1, 2, ..., N, input 7.1-2 of the programmable calculator 7.1 of the value of the code bit characterizing ambiguously (unreliable, incomplete) on which n ≥ L model sections of the system the product is present, initiates the issuance from the corresponding n-th output 7.1-6 ₁ - 7.1-6 _N programmable calculator 7.1 (the output of the _{n-th neuron of the output layer S b} ) programmed, according to the computational neural network algorithm, the values of the mathematically correct transformed, relatively reliable bit of the code characterizing which ones n ≤ L model sections of the production system, there is a product (or an application for the provision of an information or telecommunication service to a subscriber).

As a result, at the N group outputs 7.1-6 ₁ - 7.1-6 _N programmable calculator 7.1 (Fig. 11) and at the corresponding N group inputs 7.3-1 ₁ - 7.3-1 _N storage element 7.3 we obtain information characterizing (based on the analysis obtained within the framework of the ENS of the integrated opinion of experts) on which exactly n≤ L out of N possible model sections of the production system there is a product (or an application for providing a subscriber with information or telecommunication services), transformed in the interests of increasing the accuracy (reliability) of identifying the state of production, information or telecommunication systems.

The primary storage element 7.2 records, stores and issues from its output 7.2-2 - through the corresponding control output 76 of the model 7 data correction unit to the corresponding control input 41 of the failure signal generation unit 4 a single signal - a pulse containing verified results corresponding to the product manufactured by the production system or information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber.

The secondary storage element 7.2 (Fig. 11) records, stores and outputs from its N outputs 7.3-2 ₁ - 7.3-2 _N through the corresponding group of N outputs 71 ₁ - 71 _N of the model 7 data correction unit to the corresponding N inputs 31 ₁ - 31 _N block of simulators of system sections states 3 code containing verified data on which exactly n ≤ L model sections of the system the product is present (or an application for the provision of information or telecommunication services to a subscriber).

When a single signal is received at the corresponding input 41 of the failure signal generation unit 4 (see Fig. 8) - a pulse containing verified results corresponding to the product manufactured by the production system or the information or telecommunication service delivered to the subscriber, an additional counter 4.3 of the failure signal generation unit 4 fixes the quantity products manufactured by the production system or the number of information or telecommunication services delivered to the subscriber for the operational time t of performing a separate operational task and transfers this information in binary code to the input 4.5-1 of the additional decoder 4.5. When this number (χ and (y)) reaches the scheduled time for the operational time t (a separate private operational task is completed), then at the output of the additional decoder 4.5 of the failure signal generation unit 4, a short-term single signal appears, which, through the OR element 4.1, resets the main 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters. The main counter 4.2 captures the unambiguous values of the time t of the execution of the operational task (from the set of operational tasks that make up the shift task) coming from block 6 or from block 7 and transmits this information in binary code to the input 4.4-1 of the main decoder 4.4.

If the current time t of the operational task execution (from the set of operational tasks that make up the shift task) is performed with a delay, then at the output 4.4-2 of the main decoder 4.4 of the failure signal generation unit 4, a single signal appears, indicating a failure of production, information or telecommunications systems - failure to meet the deadline, i.e., for the allotted operational time t, of a specific operational task from the set of operational tasks that make up a common shift task.

The generated unambiguous signals about the completion on time, i.e., for the allotted operational time t, of a specific operational task from the set of operational tasks that make up the general shift task, from the output 4.5-2 of the additional decoder 4.5 through the signal output 45 of the block for generating signals of failures 4 to the signal input 125 of the interval mean analysis block 12.

Generated and verified (identified from the point of view of catastrophe theory) unambiguous signals of failures occurring within the allotted operational time t, intended for performing a specific operational task from a set of operational tasks that make up a common shift task.

The tasks of identifying and verifying the states of the boundary (catastrophic) number of such failures and warning the operator about their possible catastrophic number are described in detail in the prototype (see RF patent No. 2705010 "Device for predicting random events" IPC G06F 17/18, G06N 7/00, published on 01.11.2019, Bul. No. 31), and are implemented in the block for the analysis of catastrophes 10 and the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 as follows.

The generated (but not yet identified from the point of view of catastrophe theory) signals of failures that occurred during the allotted operational time intended for performing a specific operational task from a set of operational tasks are received from the output 4.5-2 of the additional decoder 4.5 through the information output 44 of the failure signal generation unit 4 to information input 104 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10. To fix and register the number of failures of the production, information or telecommunication system in the interests of identifying and verifying the states of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) number of such failures, the information input 10.0-1 of the central RAM 10.0 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 is used, allowing to count the single signals arriving at it. These signals are single impulses containing verified results about a detected error (failure): a product not manufactured by the production system or an information or telecommunication service not communicated to the subscriber.

Further, within the framework of the catastrophe analysis block 10 and the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11, dynamic control of the value of the admissible number of failures is carried out, after exceeding which the system (the object of modeling and forecasting) will with a high probability go into an emergency state from any other state, identification and verification of the states of the boundary (catastrophic) number of such failures, as well as the formation of signals of a logical zero or logical unit (prediction and warning signal), characterizing, respectively, the absence or presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures.

The block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 (Fig. 15) is designed to form a control code sequence (consisting of elements of the set Q _N (where q ∈ Q; Q ≥ 1, Q _n is an admissible (threshold, maximum), aq _n is a real one for of each n-th section of the system, the value of the number of failures per unit of time, upon exceeding which the system (the object of modeling and forecasting) with a high probability will go into an emergency state from any other state), as well as to generate a signal of a logical zero or logical unit, characterizing the prohibition, respectively or permission of the administrator (user, operator) to issue a warning signal about the presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures of the production, information or telecommunication system.The block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 consists of test RAM 11.0, counter 11.1 and can be implemented according to the scheme presented on Fig. 15. Formation of the control the code sequence of admissible values of the number of failures, as well as the formation of a signal of a logical zero or logical unit, is performed as follows. From an external source through the input "Input of the threshold values of the number of failures" of the device, the control input 114 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 and the control input 11.0-4 into the memory cells of the check RAM 11.0 (see Fig. 15), a sequential write is made in the binary code of the set permissible (threshold) values of the number of failures for each n-th section of the system, as well as the recording of a logical zero or logical unit, characterizing, respectively, the prohibition or permission to issue a warning signal about the presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures of an industrial, information or telecommunication system.

Samples t, (t + 1), (t + 2), etc. operational time t (ticks, steps) within the work cycle (within the time of the shift task) of the production, information or telecommunication system, in other words, the operational time t (ticks, steps) of checking (monitoring) the correspondence of the admissible values of the number of failures to their real number , come from the synchronizing output 13 of the control unit to the synchronizing inputs 103 and 113 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 and the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11, respectively, being reports of the operational time t (steps, steps) within the entire time of the shift task (the cycle time of the production , information or telecommunication system). These signals (counts) are fed through the synchronizing input 113 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 to the synchronizing input 11.1-3 of the counter 11.1 and are determined, coming from the clock output 11.1-1 of the counter 11.1 to the clock input 11.0-2 of the check RAM 11.0, the moment of the start of the sequential reading in binary code stored in the check RAM 11.0 Q _N - a set of admissible (threshold) values of the number of failures per unit of time (for operational time t) for each n-th section of the system. Sequential reading of the admissible (threshold) values of the number of failures for each n-th section of the system is carried out through the check output 11.0-1 of the check RAM 11.0 and the output 111 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 to the check input 10.2-2 of the ROM 10.2 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 (Fig. . 14), and also determines the moment of the beginning of reading the logical zero or logical unit stored in the check RAM 11.0. Reading a logical zero or logical unit is also performed from the check output 11.0-1 of the check RAM 11.0 and the output 111 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11 to the second input 10.7-2 of the element And 10.7 of the catastrophe analysis block 10 (Fig. 14). From the release output 11.0-3 of the check RAM 11.0 (Fig. 15) to the release input 11.1-4 of the counter 11.1 at the time of reading the sequence of admissible (threshold) values of the number of failures and reading a logical zero (logical unit), a signal is received that clears (releases, resets) the value of the counter 11.1 and giving the command to the counter 11.1 to start a new count for the newly introduced control actions (Q _n - the sequence of admissible (threshold) values of the number of failures per unit of time for each n-th section of the system), and for the newly introduced control actions - a logical zero ( logical unit).

The catastrophe analysis unit 10 is intended for the implementation of procedures for identifying and verifying the states of the boundary, emergency (catastrophic) number of system failures with smooth changes in the parameters of external conditions and control actions, as well as for generating signals of a logical zero or logical unit (prediction and warning signals), characterizing respectively absence or presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures. The catastrophe analysis unit 10 can be implemented according to the scheme shown in FIG. 14. Identification and verification of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) states of the number of system failures, as well as the generation of signals of a logical zero or logical unit (prediction and warning signal) is carried out in the catastrophe analysis unit 10 as follows. From the information output 44 of the failure signal generation unit 4 through the information input 104 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 to the information input 10.0-1 of the central RAM 10.0, they are fed in a binary code and recorded in the memory cells the signals characterizing the (t + 1) -th time interval ( cycle, step) from the entire time of the shift task (the work cycle of the production, information or telecommunication system) the number of failures that predetermine the smooth drift of the number of such failures for each n-th section of this system towards the boundary and catastrophic state (see Fig. 14) ...

From the synchronizing output 13 of the control unit 1, through the synchronizing input 103 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, a synchronizing clock signal arrives at the clock input 10.0-3 of the central RAM 10.0 and at the clock input 10.2-1 of the ROM 10.2, initiating a sequential read from the memory cells of the central RAM 10.0 of each q _n of Q elements of the set Q _n values of the number of failures that predetermine the smooth drift of the number of such failures towards the boundary and catastrophic state at the (t + 1) th segment of the operational time (cycle, step) from the entire time of the shift task (production cycle, information or telecommunication system), namely those that correspond to the set Q of system failures and have the physical meaning of exceeding the threshold of the system’s failure capabilities and, as a consequence, a high probability of the system (object of modeling and forecasting) transitioning to an emergency, catastrophic state.

The values of the number q out of the total number Q of failures that predetermine the smooth drift of the number of such failures towards the boundary and catastrophic state on the (t + 1) -th segment of the operational time (for each n-th section of the system - the values of the number q _n from the total number Q _n failures) are sequentially read from each corresponding n-th of the executive outputs 10.0-4 ₁ - 10.0-4 _{N of the} central RAM 10.0 to the inputs of the corresponding n-th executive RAMs 10.1 ₁ - 10.1 _N , as well as to the first input 10.3-1 of the iterative comparison element 10.3 and to the second input 10.4-2 of the comparison element 10.4 (see Fig. 14). From the output of each n-th from the executive RAM 10.1 ₁ - 10.1 _N to the second input 10.3-2 of the iterative comparison elements 10.3 in binary code, the values of the number q from the total number of Q failures stored in the memory cells are sequentially read, which predetermine the smooth drift of the number of such failures towards the boundary and catastrophic state (for each n-th section of the system - the values of the number q _n out of the total number Q _{n of} failures) at the (t) -th (previous) segment of the operational time (cycle, step) of the production, information or telecommunication system.

In addition, the synchronizing clock signal coming from the synchronizing input 103 of the unit 10 to the clock input 10.2-1 of the ROM 10.2 initiates the reading in binary code from the memory cells of the ROM 10.2 to the first input 10.4-1 of the comparison element 10.4 of the pre-recorded admissible value of the number of failures for any the n-th section of the system, when exceeded, the system is likely to go into an emergency (catastrophic) state from any other state. Based on the comparison element 10.4, the procedure for identifying the states of the boundary, emergency (catastrophic) number of system failures with smooth changes in the parameters of external conditions and control actions is carried out. This procedure is carried out by sequential (for each operational time t, cycle-by-cycle) a priori estimation and comparison of the values of the number of failures of each n-th of q _n elements of the set Q _n in order to determine the presence or absence of a possible excess of these values of the permissible threshold.

Thus, the comparison element 10.4 performs a cycle-by-cycle (for each operational time t) comparison of the values of each q _n (t + 1), _{sequentially arriving in binary code from the executive outputs 10.0-4 1} - 10.0-4 _{N of the central RAM 10.0, with the value of Q n} received from the ROM output 10.2. Not exceeding any n-th (q _n (t + 1)) value of this threshold Q _n , characterizes the non-fulfillment of the comparison condition and the result of the identification (comparison) procedure is expressed in the appearance of a logical zero at the output of the comparison element 10.4, which is fed to the first input 10.7-1 of the element AND 10.7. The excess of any n-th (q _n (t + 1)) value of this threshold Q _n , characterizes the fulfillment of the comparison condition and the beginning of a smooth change in the number of failures for this n-th section of the system towards the boundary and catastrophic state, and the result of the identification procedure (comparison ) is expressed in the appearance of a logical unit at the output of the comparison element 10.4, which in binary code is fed to the first input 10.7-1 of the AND element 10.7.

Based on the iterative comparison element 10.3, intermediate RAM 10.5 and intermediate element I 10.6, the procedure for verifying the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) states of the number of system failures is carried out. This procedure is carried out in two stages. The first stage is carried out on the basis of the iterative comparison element 10.3 by sequential cycle-by-cycle (for each operational time t) a priori estimation and comparison of each n-th value of the number of failures q _n for a given t-oe operational time of the system with a value of the number q _n for the next (t +1) -oe operational time. For this purpose, in the element of iterative comparison 10.3, a cycle-by-cycle (for each operational time t) comparison is carried out sequentially and in pairs in binary code from the outputs of N executive RAM 10.1 ₁ - 10.1 _{N of} each of the values q _n (t) of the number of failures for a given t-oe operational time with the corresponding values q _n (t + 1) of the number of failures for the next (t + 1) -oe operational time, coming from the executive outputs 10.0-4 ₁ - 10.0-4 _{N of the} central RAM 10.0. Not exceeding any n-th (q _n (t + 1)) of the values of the number of failures for the next (t + 1) -th operational time of the corresponding n-th (q _n (t)) of the values of the number of failures for a given t-th (previous) operational time, characterizes the failure of the comparison condition in clock cycles and the result of the first stage of the verification procedure (comparison of the subsequent value of the number of failures with the previous one) is expressed in the appearance of a logical zero at the output of the iterative comparison element 10.3, which is fed in a binary code to the input of the intermediate RAM 10.5 and to the second input 10.6-2 of the intermediate element AND 10.6. Exceeding any n-th (q _n (t + 1)) of the values of the number of failures for the next (t + 1) -th operational time of the corresponding n-th (q _n (t)) of the values of the number of failures for a given t-oe ( previous) operational time, characterizes the fulfillment of the comparison condition in clock cycles, has the physical meaning of the revealed tendency to increase the probability of a change in the number of failures towards the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) state, and the result of the first stage of the verification procedure (comparing the subsequent value of the number of failures with the previous one) is expressed in the appearance at the output of the element of iterative comparison 10.3 of a logical unit, which in binary code is fed to the input of the intermediate RAM 10.5 and to the second input 10.6-2 of the intermediate element AND 10.6.

The second stage of the verification procedure in block 10 (see Fig. 14) is carried out on the basis of intermediate RAM 10.5 and intermediate element AND 10.6 by comparing in intermediate element AND 10.6 the result of the first stage (logical zero or logical unit), stored in intermediate RAM 10.5 and arriving at the first input 10.6-1 of the intermediate element AND 10.6, with the result of the first stage (logical zero or logical one) obtained for the next (t + 1) -oe operational time of the system and arriving from the output of the element of iterative comparison 10.3 to the second input 10.6-2 of the intermediate element AND 10.6. The physical meaning of the second stage of verification is to confirm (actually verify) the revealed tendency to increase the probability of a change in the number of failures towards the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) state, and the result of the second stage of verification is expressed in the appearance of an intermediate element I 10.6 at the output of a logical unit or logical zero, which in binary code, 10.7-1 elements And 10.7 are fed to the first input. If the result of the first stage (for example, logical unit) obtained in t-oe (previous) operational time coincides with the result of the first stage (logical unit) obtained in the next (t + 1) -th operational time, the result of the second stage of the verification procedure is expressed in appearance at the output of the intermediate element AND 10.6 logical unit. If the result of the first stage obtained in the t-th (previous) operational time (for example, a logical unit) does not coincide with the result of the first stage (logical unit), obtained in the next (t + 1) -oe operational time, or obtained in the t-oe (previous) operational time, the result of the first stage is a logical zero and coincides with the result of the first stage (logical zero) obtained in the next (t + 1) -th operational time, the result of the second stage of the verification procedure is expressed in the appearance of an intermediate element AND 10.6 at the output logical zero.

The synchronizing clock signal (see Fig. 15), supplied to the synchronizing input 113 of the block for setting the threshold values of the number of failures 11, initiates reading from the output 111 of the block 11 through the check input 105 of the block 10 (see Fig. 14) to the second input 10.7-2 element And 10.7 logical zero or logical unit, characterizing, respectively, the prohibition or permission of the administrator (user, operator) to issue an alert signal about the presence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures of the production, information or telecommunication system. If a logical unit is received from the test input 105 of block 10 (see Fig. 14) to the second input 10.7-2 of the AND element 10.7 (notification of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures is necessary) and the logical unit is received from the output of the comparison element 10.4 or from the output of an intermediate element And 10.6, the result of identification and verification of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) states of the number of failures is expressed in the appearance of a logical unit at the output of the AND element 10.7. A logical unit from the output of element I 10.7 is fed to the reading input 10.0-5 of the central RAM 10.0 and locks the central RAM 10.0, preventing the identified and verified signals characterizing the content and number of failures from being sequentially read from the information output 10.0-2 of the central RAM 10.0 through the information output 106 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 (see Fig. 1) to the information input 124 of the interval mean 12 analysis unit in the interest of calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators (characterized by the number of failures) of the PTS for the entire duration of the shift task (the entire session providing services to users).

In addition, the logical unit from the output of the element I 10.7 through the warning output 101 of block 10 is fed to the output of the "Catastrophe threat" failures (for example, to introduce a temporary ban or forced limitation on accounting for failures) or threshold, permissible values of the number of such failures in order to prevent an emergency (catastrophic) abrupt change in the state of the forecast object under small disturbances caused by external or internal influences.

If a logical zero is received from the test input 105 of block 10 (see Fig. 14) to the second input 10.7-2 of the AND element 10.7 (the administrator does not need to be notified of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures), and from the output of the comparison element 10.4 or from the output of an intermediate element And 10.6, either a logical zero or a logical unit is received, the result of identification and verification of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) states of the number of failures is expressed in the appearance of a logical zero at the output of the AND element 10.7. If a logical unit is received from the test input 105 of block 10 to the second input 10.7-2 of the AND element 10.7 (notification of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures is necessary), and a logical zero is received from the output of the comparison element 10.4 or from the output of the intermediate element I 10.6, the identification result and verification of the boundary and emergency (catastrophic) states of the number of failures is expressed in the appearance of a logical zero at the output of the AND element 10.7. A logical zero from the output of element I 10.7 is fed to the reading input 10.0-5 of the central RAM 10.0 and opens the central RAM 10.0, allowing the identified and verified signals characterizing the number of failures to be sequentially read from the information output 10.0-2 of the central RAM 10.0 through the information output 106 of the analysis unit catastrophes 10 (see Fig. 1) to the information input 124 of the interval mean 12 analysis unit in the interests of calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators (characterized by the number of failures) ).

In addition, a logical zero from the output of the AND element 10.7 through the warning output 101 of the unit 10 is fed to the "Catastrophe threat" output of the device, being a prediction and warning signal characterizing the absence of a possible catastrophic state of the number of failures. Thus, the presence at the warning output 101 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 and at the “Catastrophe threat” output of the logical unit signal device serves as an indicator of blocking the device, and the presence at the warning output 101 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10 and at the “Catastrophe threat” output of the logical zero signal device serves the unlocking rate of the device to predict the system as a whole.

Thus, in the interests of the interval quality assessment (characterized by the number of completed tasks in the operational time), the generated unambiguous signals about completed on time, i.e., for the allotted operational time t, operational tasks (from the set of operational tasks that make up the total shift task) , from the output 4.5-2 of the additional decoder 4.5 through the signal output 45 of the block for generating signals of failures 4, they are fed to the signal input 125 of the block for analyzing interval averages 12, to the information input 124 of which, in the interests of the interval estimation of reliability (characterized by the number of failures), from the information output 106 of the catastrophe analysis unit 10, generated and verified (identified from the point of view of the theory of catastrophes) unambiguous signals of failures that occurred during the allotted operational time intended for performing a specific operational task from a set of operational tasks that make up a common shift task are received.

Calculation of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of functioning of the PTS for the entire time T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)) of the shift task (all the time session of providing services to users) occurs in the interval average analysis unit 12 as follows (Fig. 2).

Samples t, (t + 1), (t + 2), etc. operational time t (steps, steps) within the work cycle (within the time of the shift task) of the production, information or telecommunication system, are received from the synchronizing output 13 of the control unit 1 to the synchronizing input 123 of the interval mean analysis unit, being reports of the operational times t ( ticks, steps) within the entire duration of the shift task. These signals (counts) are fed through the synchronizing input 123 of block 12 (see Fig. 2) to the clock input T and to the input OE of the resolution of the data outputs Y of the central calculator 12.1 of block 12. Moreover, arriving at the clock input T, these signals determine the moment of the start of sequential reading in binary code arriving from the catastrophe analysis unit 10 through information input 124 to T inputs A (A ₁ - _AT ) of the central computer 12.1 values of the number of verified (identified from the point of view of catastrophe theory) unambiguous signals of failures that occurred during each operational time t from the composition the time of the shift task. These signals (counts) also determine the moment of the beginning of sequential reading in a binary code coming from the block for generating signals of failures 4 through the signal input 125 to T inputs B (B ₁ - B _T ) of the central calculator 12.1 values of the number of signals completed on time, i.e. ., for the allotted operational time t, operational tasks from the set of all operational tasks of the shift task.

Since the T inputs A (A ₁ - _AT ) of the central calculator 12.1 (see Fig. 2) are combined and are the information input 124 of the unit 12, and the T inputs B (B ₁ - B _T ) of the central calculator 12.1 are combined and are the signal input 125 block 12, writing to these inputs A (A ₁ - _AT ) and B (B ₁ - B _T ) is carried out progressively, sequentially to each t-th input A _t and B _t (t ∈ T) there are signals of failures and signals about performance of operational tasks, respectively, characterizing the current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) values of the reliability and quality indicators, respectively, exactly for this one interval t of operational time. In other words, for example, signals of failures that occurred during the operational time t are received at the input A _t , signals of failures that occurred during the next operational time (t + 1) are received at the input A _{t + 1} , and so on, until the end of the time D completing the entire shift task. Thus, the signals of failures and signals about the execution of operational tasks arrive at the inputs A and B corresponding to the reports of the operational time progressively, step by step, at each interval of operational time, in total constituting the entire time of execution of the shift task T = (t) + (t +1) + (t + 2) +… + (T)), i.e., at each time interval for each individual task within the entire shift task t, t + 1, t + 2,…, T ).

и верхнего

среднего уровня надежности, а также обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней и нижней) оценки показателя надежности. При этом точный нижний

средний уровень надежности за интервал T определяется путем решения в центральном вычислителе 12.1 задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров надежности на каждом отдельном t-ом оперативном времени в соответствии с выражением (4) - как точная нижняя граница надежности (наименьшая из всех верхних).Calculation of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability indicators of the PITS for the entire time T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)) for performing a shift task (all the time of the service session users) occurs in the block analysis of interval averages 12 as follows (see Fig. 2). Failure signals arriving in binary code through T inputs A ( _A1 - _AT ) of the central computer 12.1 sequentially to each t-th input A _t (t ∈ T), characterizing the current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) values of the reliability indicator for one interval t of the operational time, are statistical input data for calculating the lower

and top

the average level of reliability, as well as the generalized interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability indicator. At the same time, the exact lower

the average reliability level for the interval T is determined by solving the linear programming problem in the central computer 12.1 on the basis of the average values of the identified reliability parameters at each separate t-th operating time in accordance with expression (4) - as the exact lower bound of reliability (the smallest of all the upper ones) ...

средний уровень надежности за интервал выполнения сменного задания T определяется также путем решения в центральном вычислителе 12.1 задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров надежности на каждом отдельном t-ом оперативном времени в соответствии с выражением (5) - как точная верхняя граница надежности (набольшая из всех нижних). Затем, в соответствии с выражением (6), в центральном вычислителе 12.1 определяется обобщенная интервальная (граничная верхняя

и нижняя

) оценки показателя надежности.Precise upper

the average reliability level for the interval of the shift task execution T is also determined by solving the linear programming problem in the central computer 12.1 on the basis of the average values of the identified reliability parameters at each separate t-th operating time in accordance with expression (5) - as the exact upper limit of reliability (the largest of all the lower ones). Then, in accordance with expression (6), in the central computer 12.1, the generalized interval (boundary upper

and lower

) assessing the reliability indicator.

Along with playing the role of initial data for solving the problem of calculating interval average values of reliability, failure signals characterizing the current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) values of the reliability indicator for each interval t of operational time in binary code in transit through the central computer 12.1 from its first Y ₁ data output (see Fig. 2) are sequentially fed to the base input 12.2.-1 of the primary RAM 12.2 and are written in its memory cells for subsequent sequential transmission through the base output 12.2-3 of the primary RAM 12.2 and the information output 126 of the interval mean 12 analysis unit to the information input 54 of the registration unit 5 (Fig. 9), where, after processing, they are recorded by a quaternary counter 5.9, which keeps track of the number of failures.

и верхнего

среднего уровня надежности, а также обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя надежности в двоичном коде с первого Y₁ выхода данных центрального вычислителя 12.1 последовательно поступают на базовый вход 12.2.-1 первичного ОЗУ 12.2 и записываются в его ячейках памяти для последующей выдачи через свой операторный выход 12.2-4 на первый операторный выход 120 блока 12 и на выход «Интервальные средние значения надежности» устройства полученных результатов - интервальных (граничных верхних и нижних) оценок показателя надежности ПИТС за все время выполнения сменного задания (все время сеанса предоставления услуг пользователям), т.е., вывода пользователю (оператору, администратору) оценочных данных - интервальных оценок надежности, усредненных за период наблюдения.The values of the lower

and top

average level of reliability, as well as generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) estimates of the reliability indicator in binary code from the first Y ₁ data output of the central computer 12.1 are sequentially fed to the base input 12.2.-1 of the primary RAM 12.2 and are recorded in its memory cells for subsequent issuance through its operator output 12.2-4 to the first operator output 120 of the block 12 and to the output "Interval average values of reliability" of the device of the obtained results - interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability indicator of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task (the entire time of the session of providing services to users), i.e., output to the user (operator, administrator) of estimated data - interval estimates of reliability averaged over the observation period.

и верхнего

среднего уровня качества, а также обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней и нижней) оценки показателя качества. При этом, как и в задачах анализа надежности, точный нижний

средний уровень качества за интервал Т определяется путем решения в центральном вычислителе 12.1 задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров качества на каждом отдельном t-ом отрезке оперативного времени в соответствии с выражением (4) - как точная нижняя граница качества (наименьшая из всех верхних).Calculation of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the quality indicators of the PITS for the entire time T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)) for performing a shift task (all the time of the service provision session users) occurs in the block analysis of interval averages 12 as follows (see Fig. 2). Signals about the execution of operational tasks arriving in binary code through T inputs B (B ₁ - B _T ) of the central computer 12.1 sequentially to each t-th input B _t (t ∈ T), characterizing the current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) values of the quality indicator for one interval t of operational time, are statistical input data for calculating the lower

and top

the average level of quality, as well as the generalized interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the quality indicator. At the same time, as in the problems of reliability analysis, the exact lower

the average quality level for the interval T is determined by solving the linear programming problem in the central computer 12.1 based on the average values of the identified quality parameters at each separate t-th interval of operational time in accordance with expression (4) - as an exact lower quality boundary (the smallest of all upper ).

средний уровень качества за интервал выполнения сменного задания Г определяется также путем решения в центральном вычислителе 12.1 задачи линейного программирования на основе средних значений идентифицированных параметров качества на каждом отдельном t-ом оперативном времени в соответствии с выражением (5) - как точная верхняя граница качества (набольшая из всех нижних). Затем, по аналогии с анализом надежности и в соответствии с выражением (6), в центральном вычислителе 12.1 определяется обобщенная интервальная (граничная верхняя

и нижняя

) оценки показателя качества.Precise upper

the average quality level for the interval of performing the shift task Г is also determined by solving the linear programming problem in the central computer 12.1 on the basis of the average values of the identified quality parameters at each separate t-th operational time in accordance with expression (5) - as the exact upper quality boundary (large of all the lower ones). Then, by analogy with the analysis of reliability and in accordance with expression (6), in the central computer 12.1, a generalized interval (boundary upper

and lower

) assessing the quality indicator.

As well as for interval reliability analysis, along with playing the role of initial data for solving the problem of calculating interval average quality values, signals about the execution of operational tasks characterizing the current point (step-by-step, cycle-by-cycle) values of the quality indicator for one interval t of operational time in binary code in transit through the central computer 12.1 from its second Y ₂ data outputs (see Fig. 2) are sequentially fed to the base input 12.3.-1 of the secondary RAM 12.3 and are recorded in its memory cells for subsequent sequential transmission through the base output 12.3-3 of the secondary RAM 12.3 and the signal the output 127 of the analysis unit of interval averages 12 to the signal input 55 of the registration unit 5 (Fig. 9), where they are recorded by the secondary counter 5.6, which keeps records of the released products, information or telecommunication services provided.

и верхнего

среднего уровня качества, а также обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя качества в двоичном коде со второго Y₂ выхода данных центрального вычислителя 12.1 последовательно поступают на базовый вход 12.3.-1 вторичного ОЗУ 12.3 и записываются в его ячейках памяти для последующей выдачи через свой операторный выход 12.3-4 на второй операторный выход 121 блока 12 и на выход «Интервальные средние значения качества» устройства полученных результатов - интервальных (граничных верхних и нижних) оценок показателя качества ПИТС за все время выполнения сменного задания (все время сеанса предоставления услуг пользователям), т.е., вывода пользователю (оператору, администратору) оценочных данных - интервальных оценок качества, усредненных за период наблюдения.The values of the lower

and top

average quality level, as well as generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) estimates of the quality indicator in binary code from the second Y ₂ data outputs of the central computer 12.1 are sequentially fed to the base input 12.3.-1 of the secondary RAM 12.3 and are written in its memory cells for subsequent issuance through its operator output 12.3-4 to the second operator output 121 of the block 12 and to the output "Interval average values of quality" of the device of the obtained results - interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the quality indicator of the PITS for the entire time of the shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users), i.e., output to the user (operator, administrator) assessment data - interval quality assessments averaged over the observation period.

Before starting the operation of the device _{, a short pulse is sent to the transfer input С 0 of the} central calculator 12.1 through the reset input 122 of the interval average analysis unit 12 (Fig. 2) from the reset output 17 of the control unit 1 (see Fig. 1) to install the interval average analysis unit 12 to its original state. On this impulse, the central calculator 12.1 of the interval average analysis unit 12 is reset to zero.

и верхнего

среднего уровня надежности, значений обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя надежности (с первого Y₁ выхода данных на базовый вход 12.2-1 первичного ОЗУ 12.2), а также значений нижнего

и верхнего

среднего уровня качества и значений обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя качества (со второго Y₂ выхода данных на базовый вход 12.3-1 вторичного ОЗУ 12.3) определяются на основе отсчетов поступающих через синхронизирующий вход 123 блока анализа интервальных средних 12 (фиг. 2) на тактовый вход Т и вход 0Е разрешения выходов данных Y центрального вычислителя 12.1 тактовых сигналов за все время Т(Т=(t)+(t+1)+(t+2)+…+(Т)) выполнения сменного задания (все время сеанса предоставления услуг пользователям). При этом моменты считывания этих данных определяются путем подачи управляющего сигнала с входа 0Е разрешения выходов данных Y через инверсный выход генерации переноса G центрального вычислителя 12.1 на разрешающие входы 12.2-2 и 12.3-2 первичного 12.2 и вторичного 12.3 ОЗУ соответственно.Moments of reading from the first Y ₁ and second Y ₂ data outputs of the central computer 12.1 in binary code of the current signals of failures (from the first Y ₁ data output to the base input 12.2-1 of the primary RAM 12.2), current signals about the execution of operational tasks (from the second Y ₂ data output to the base input 12.3-1 of the secondary RAM 12.3), the values of the lower

and top

the average level of reliability, the values of the generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) estimates of the reliability indicator (from the first Y ₁ data output to the base input 12.2-1 of the primary RAM 12.2), as well as the values of the lower

and top

average quality level and values of the generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) estimates of the quality indicator (from the second Y ₂ data output to the basic input 12.3-1 of the secondary RAM 12.3) are determined on the basis of the readings coming through the synchronizing input 123 of the interval mean analysis unit 12 (Fig. 2) to the clock input T and the input 0E of the resolution of the data outputs Y central computer 12.1 clock signals for the entire time T (T = (t) + (t + 1) + (t + 2) + ... + (T)) of the shift job (all the time of the session of providing services to users). In this case, the moments of reading these data are determined by supplying a control signal from the input 0E of the permission of the data outputs Y through the inverse output of the generation of the transfer G of the central calculator 12.1 to the enable inputs 12.2-2 and 12.3-2 of the primary 12.2 and secondary 12.3 RAM, respectively.

The control signal from the inverse output of the generation of the transfer G of the central computer 12.1 (Fig. 2), arriving at the enable input 12.2-2 of the primary RAM 12.2, determines for this RAM the moment of the start of reading in a binary code through its base output 12.2-3 and through the information output 126 block analysis of interval averages 12 to the information input 54 of the registration block 5 (Fig. 9) of the current signals of failures, which, after processing, are recorded by a fourfold counter 5.9, which keeps track of the number of failures.

и верхнего

среднего уровня надежности, а также значений обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя надежности функционирования производственной, информационной или телекоммуникационной системы.In addition, this control signal, coming from the inverse output of the generation of the transfer G of the central calculator 12.1 (Fig. 2) to the enable input 12.2-2 of the primary RAM 12.2, also determines for this RAM the moment of the start of reading in binary code through its operator output 12.2-4 and through the first operator output 120 of the interval average analysis unit 12 to the output "Interval average reliability values" of the device, calculated in the central computer 12.1 and stored in the primary RAM 12.2 of the values of the results of the interval reliability analysis - values of the lower

and top

the average level of reliability, as well as the values of the generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) assessing the indicator of the reliability of the functioning of the production, information or telecommunication system.

The control signal from the inverse output of the generation of the transfer G of the central computer 12.1 (Fig. 2), arriving at the enable input 12.3-2 of the secondary RAM 12.3, determines for this RAM the moment of the beginning of reading in binary code through its base output 12.3-3 and through the signal output 127 block analysis of interval averages 12 to the signal input 55 of the registration block 5 (Fig. 9) of the current signals about the execution of operational tasks, which are recorded by the secondary counter 5.6, which keeps records of the released products, provided information or telecommunication services.

и верхнего

среднего уровня качества, а также значений обобщенной интервальной (граничной верхней

и нижней

) оценки показателя качества функционирования производственной, информационной или телекоммуникационной системы.In addition, as in the case of interval estimation (prediction) of reliability, this control signal, coming from the inverse output of the generation of transfer G of the central calculator 12.1 (Fig. 2) to the resolution input 12.3-2 of the secondary RAM 12.3, also determines for this RAM the start time readings in binary code through its operator output 12.3-4 and through the second operator output 121 of the interval mean analysis unit 12 to the output "Interval average quality values" of the device, calculated in the central calculator 12.1 and stored in the secondary RAM 12.3 values of the results of the interval quality analysis - values bottom

and top

the average quality level, as well as the values of the generalized interval (boundary upper

and bottom

) assessing the quality indicator of the functioning of the production, information or telecommunication system.

As a result, in the block for analysis of interval averages 12, the receipt (calculation) of interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality of the operation of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users) was obtained, as well as the output to the operator of the estimated data - output (for direct perception by the operator on a digital display or registration on another digital recording device) interval estimates of reliability and quality (respectively through the outputs "Interval average values of reliability" and "Interval average values of quality" of the device), averaged over the observation period, for making reasonable solutions for the optimal management of production, information or telecommunications systems.

Further, the process of evaluating and predicting random events in the device is carried out as follows (Fig. 1). At the information output 126 of the interval mean analysis unit 12, we have in a binary code the current failure signals, which are fed to the information input 54 of the registration unit 5 (see Fig. 9). On the leading edge of each such failure signal, the 5.14 one-shot generates a short pulse, which is recorded by a 5.9 quadruple counter, which keeps track of the number of failures. In addition, this impulse is recorded by one of the 5.8 ₁ - 5.8 _K counters designed to obtain a histogram of the time between failures of the system. Each refusal signal from the information input 54 of the registration unit 5 goes through the OR element 5.4 to the reset input 5.5-2 of the primary counter 5.5, input 5.3-2 of the frequency divider 5.3 and resets them to zero. After the end of the failure signal, the primary counter 5.5 starts counting the pulses coming from the output 5.3-3 of the frequency divider 5.3. The division factor of the frequency divider 5.3 sets the size of the intervals of the histogram. The tertiary counter 5.7, which receives clock pulses at the input 5.7-2, records the operating time of the production, information or telecommunication system.

) модельного элемента участка системы, с внешнего устройства в десятичном коде (либо с помощью человека-оператора, либо с помощью специального управляющего устройства), через N входов «Коррекция оперативного времени» 01₁ - 01_N устройства на N входов 91₁ - 91_N главного контроллера оперативного времени 9 (см. фиг. 13) поступают новые, дополнительно вводимые в динамике управления, значения оперативного времени t в рамках времени выполнения сменного задания Т для каждого конкретного n-го (

) модельного элемента участков системы. Главный контроллер оперативного времени 9 может быть реализован в соответствии со схемой, изображенной на фиг. 13. Динамическая коррекция значений оперативного времени t в рамках времени выполнения сменного задания Т для всех, нескольких из N или конкретного модельного элемента участков системы осуществляется в главном контроллере оперативного времени 9 следующим образом.If, in the course of the system operation process, external dynamic control of the operational time t, t + 1, t + 2, T is initiated, which is allocated to perform a separate specific operational task within the framework of a general shift task for any n-th (

) of the model element of the system section, from an external device in decimal code (either with the help of a human operator, or with the help of a special control device), through N inputs "Time correction" 01 ₁ - 01 _N devices with N inputs 91 ₁ - 91 _N of the main controller of operational time 9 (see Fig. 13), new, additionally introduced in the control dynamics, values of the operational time t are received within the time of the shift task T for each specific n-th (

) of the model element of the system sections. The main online time controller 9 can be implemented in accordance with the circuit shown in FIG. 13. Dynamic correction of the operational time t values within the time of the shift task T for all, several of N or a specific model element of the system sections is carried out in the main operational time controller 9 as follows.

New values of the operational time t (t = 1, 2, ..., T), additionally introduced in the dynamics of the system's operation process control, within the time of the entire shift task T for specific model elements of the system sections, are received in decimal code through N inputs 91 ₁ - 91 _{N of the} main controller of operational time 9 for N inputs 9.1-1 ₁ - 9.1-1 _{N of the} registering element of operational time 9.1 (see Fig. 13) for control and registration. From N outputs 9.1-2 ₁ - 9.1-2 _N registering element of operational time 9.1 new values of operational time t arrive at the corresponding N inputs 9.2-1 ₁ - 9.2-1 _N storage element of new value of operational time 9.2, which records and stores in decimal code, these values until the next control action is introduced, as well as from their N outputs 9.2-2 ₁ - 9.2-2 _N , through the corresponding N outputs 92 ₁ - 92 _{N of the} main operating time controller 9, transfers these new values of the operating time t to the correcting inputs 82 ₁ - 82 _{N of the} corresponding operating time controllers of model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N. Decryption, additional comparison and control of the code determining the new value of the operational time t for each specific model element of the system section in the operational time controllers of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _{N is} carried out as follows (see Fig. 12). The decoder of the corrected code of the operating time 8.1 _n (see Fig. 12) of the controller of the operating time of the model elements 8n * converts the decimal code, which determines the new value of the operating time t introduced in the control process (and hence, as a result, the execution time of the entire shift tasks) on a specific n-th model element of the system section, into a binary code, transferring this new value to the check input 8.2 _n -2 of the comparison-correction register of the operational time 8.2 _n for analysis and issuing a new value of the operational time t in a binary code through the correcting outputs 84 ₁ - 84 _{N of the} corresponding controllers of the operational time of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N to the correcting inputs 27 ₁ - 27 _{N of the} block of the system model 2, then to the correcting inputs 2.1-7-2.7N-7 of the model elements of the sections of the system 2.1 - 2.N and to the correcting inputs 2.1.12-3-2.N.12-3 of the primary corrected decoders 2.1.12-2.N.12 (see Fig. 6).

In the register of comparison-correction of the operational time 8.2 _{n of the} controller of the operational time of the model elements 8 _n , an additional check (comparison) of the correspondence of the operational time with the initial and newly entered operational time is carried out and the formation (retranslation based on the results of comparison) at the output of the controller of the operational time of the model elements 8 _n unit a signal characterizing the compliance of the operating time with the required value, taking into account the correction and confirming the normal course of the technological, information or telecommunication process at a specific n-th section of the production, information or telecommunication system. At the same time, at the information inputs 81 ₁ - 81 _{N of the} corresponding controllers of the operational time of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N , and therefore at the information inputs 8.2 ₁ -1-8.2 _N -1 of the comparison-correction registers of the operational time 8.2 ₁ - 8.2 _N , there are single signals (from block 3) characterizing the correspondence of the operating time t to the current required value and confirming the normal course of the technological, information or telecommunication process at a specific n-th section of the production, information or telecommunication system. Comparison-correction registers of the operational time 8.2 ₁ -8.2 _N (see Fig. 12) register the initial code (recorded when preparing the device for operation, i.e. the initial operational time t) and compare it with the new operational code newly introduced in the control dynamics. time t, which comes through the test inputs 8.2 ₁ -2 - 8.2 _N -2.

Moreover, the correction (formation based on the results of comparison) at the information outputs 8.2 ₁ -3 - 8.2 _N -3 of the corresponding comparison-correction registers of the operational time 8.2 ₁ -8.2 _N single signals characterizing the correspondence of the operational time t to the newly entered (corrected) value and confirming the normal the course of the technological, information or telecommunication process at a specific n-th section of the production, information or telecommunication system is carried out as follows. If there is a signal at the test inputs 8.2 ₁ -2 - 8.2 _N -2 of the corresponding comparison-correction registers of the operational time 8.2 ₁ -8.2 _N , which causes a new operational time t, introduced in the control dynamics, for the execution of the operational task, this signal is identified as a priority signal, and namely with the new operational time, identification (comparison of the norm is not the norm) of the course of the technological, informational or telecommunication process takes place. If there is no signal at the test inputs 8.2 ₁ -2 - 8.2 _N -2 of the corresponding comparison-correction registers of the operating time 8.2 ₁ -8.2 _N , which causes a new operating time t introduced in the control dynamics for the execution of the operating task, then the previously recorded code values are recognized as priority, specifying the initial (previous) operational time.

Thus, from the correcting outputs 84 ₁ - 84 _{N of the} corresponding operating time controllers of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N to the correcting inputs 27 ₁ - 27 _N of the system model block 2, and, consequently, to the correcting inputs 2.1-7 - 2.7N-7 of the model elements of sections of the system 2.1 - 2.N and the correcting inputs 2.1.12-3-2.N.12-3 of the primary corrected decoders 2.1.12-2.N.12 (see Fig. 6) receive the logical values of the code setting new, introduced in the dynamics of process control, values of the operational time t for the execution of the operational task for each n-th model element of the sections of the system. From the information outputs 83 ₁ - 83 _{N of the} corresponding controllers of the operational time of the model elements 8 ₁ - 8 _N to the corresponding group inputs 25 ₁ - 25 _{N of the} block of the model of system 2, unit signals, which are verified from the point of view of compliance with the new operational time, are received, characterizing the compliance of the operational time this current required value and confirming the normal course of the technological, information or telecommunication process at a specific n-th section of the production, information or telecommunication system.

Data characterizing the current (step-by-step, non-interval) numerical values of the reliability and quality indicators of the production, information or telecommunication system are accumulated in the counters of the registration unit 5 (see Fig. 9) after one implementation of the system functioning process (performing the entire shift task). Carrying out such an implementation (the execution of the entire shift task) can be completed automatically or upon reaching a given volume of released products or a given volume of information or telecommunication services provided to subscribers (output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected by means of switch 5.15 to output 5.11-2 of the secondary decoder 5.11 ), either after the specified simulation time (output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected using the switch 5.15 to the output 5.12-2 of the tertiary decoder 5.12), or upon reaching the specified number of failures of the production, information or telecommunication system (output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected using the 5.15 switch to the 5.13-2 output of the 5.13 quadruple decoder). The implementation (execution of a shift task) can be completed by removing the "Work" signal by switch 1.3 of the control unit 1. Automatic termination of simulation occurs when a zero signal appears at the output 51 of the registration unit 5. This signal goes to input 16 of the control unit 1 and prohibits the issuance of synchronizing clock pulses, ensuring the operation of the entire device.

The current data accumulated in the counters of the registration unit 5 (Fig. 9), which served as the initial data for calculations in unit 12, received from this unit in unit 5 in transit, and obtained both taking into account the correction of the operational time and taking into account the identification and verification of the states of the boundary , emergency (catastrophic) number of system failures, make it possible to predict random events taking into account changing external influences, make it possible to determine the current (step-by-step) numerical values of estimates of the reliability and quality of the functioning of an industrial, information or telecommunication system, including the step-by-step probability of non-fulfillment of individual operational tasks for release of products, provision of information or telecommunication services (the ratio of the content of a quaternary meter 5.9 to the content of a secondary meter 5.6), the current (non-interval) performance of an industrial, information or telecommunication system (readings are secondary 5.6 th counter are divided into the readings of the tertiary counter 5.7 taking into account the scale of modeling), the current empirical distribution of the operating time of a production, information or telecommunication system to failure (according to the current readings of the values of the number of system failures realized by the counters 5.8 ₁ - 5.8 _K ) and other indicators.

The initial data, the basis for determining in block 5 the current (step-by-step, non-interval) numerical values of the estimates of the reliability and quality of the functioning of the production, information or telecommunication system, along with the current data arriving at the signal input 55 of the registration unit 5 from the signal output 127 of the interval analysis unit average 12, are the current signals of failures arriving at the information input 54 of the registration unit 5 from the information output 126 of the analysis unit of the interval averages 12.

Thus, the proposed device for predicting random events provides an increase in the reliability of modeling and forecasting random events, as well as expanding the scope of its application due to the implementation of the possibility of obtaining reliable interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible PITS for all the time of performing a shift task (all the time of the session of providing services to users), due to the implementation of the ability to reliably simulate and predict random events based on mathematical methods of the theory of interval averages, in conditions of constantly changing, heterogeneous and unreliable initial information received through different observation channels, taking into account dynamics of changes in random events over the entire time interval of a shift task, which is very important for optimal control of systems of this class.

The expansion of the field of application, interval estimation in the device occurs due to the procedure for obtaining (calculating) interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of the reliability and quality indicators of the PITS for the entire duration of the shift task (during the entire session of providing services to users ), as well as the output to the user (operator, administrator) of the system of estimated data - interval estimates of reliability and quality, averaged over the observation period, for making informed decisions on the optimal management of a production, information or telecommunication system.

An analysis of the principle of operation of the claimed device for predicting random events shows the obviousness of the fact that, along with the capabilities for modeling and estimation (forecasting) stored and described in the prototype in conditions when the number of one-time failures of an industrial, information or telecommunication system can smoothly change under the influence of control actions or external factors, creating a potential danger of its blocking (collapse), the device is able to increase the reliability of modeling and forecasting random events by implementing (using the methods of the theory of interval averages) calculating interval (boundary upper and lower) estimates of reliability indicators and the quality of the system functioning, averaged over the period monitoring - for the entire duration of the shift task (during the entire session of providing services to users), as well as the expansion of the scope of application of the device in real conditions, in which this system has to function ration, ensuring the ability to promptly provide the administrator (operator) with the results obtained - interval assessments of the reliability and quality indicators of a production, information or telecommunication system, which are absolutely necessary for making decisions on the optimal management of systems of this class.

This device provides an increase in the level of reliability of modeling and forecasting, when in the dynamics of control of a real system, for example, a computing or information complex, algorithms of situational (piecewise-interval) control, control introduced by the results of interval, but not current, momentary observations are used. This significantly expands the scope of the device, expands the functionality of computing systems focused on reliable control of the reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible industrial, information or telecommunication systems of arbitrary structure, where the declared device for predicting random events will be used.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

1. Gurov SV, Utkin LV, Reliability of systems with incomplete information. - SPb .: Lyubavich, 1999.-160 p.

2. Shokin Yu.A. Interval analysis. - Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1981 .-- 112 p.

3. Alefeld G., Herzberger Yu. Introduction to interval computations. - M .: Mir, 1987.-360 p.

4. Boran-Keshishyan A.L. Using the theory of interval averages to assess the reliability of complex technical systems // In the world of scientific discoveries. 2011. No. 4.1. S. 531-534.

5. Kuznetsov V.P. Interval statistical models. - M .: Radio and communication, 1991.-352 p.

6. Lemeshko B.Yu., Postovalov S.N. On solving problems of statistical analysis of interval observations // Computational technologies. T. 2. - Novosibirsk: 1997.S. 28-36.

7. Parashchuk I.B., Kryukova E.S., Malofeev V.A. Analysis of modern approaches to assessing the quality of data storage systems and electronic libraries // New information technologies and systems: collection of scientific articles of the XVI International Scientific and Technical Conference (Penza, November 27-29, 2019). -Penza: PSU Publishing House, 2019 .-- p. 312, pp. 177-180.

8. Parashchuk I.B., Kryukova E.S., Mikhailichenko N.V., Chernyavsky A.V. Topical issues of developing a methodology for multichannel analysis of the quality of an electronic library of educational and research organizations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation // Scientific and technical collection No. 107. Proceedings of the Academy. - SPb .: VAS, 2019 .-- 154 s, pp. 58-64.

9. Avramenko B.C., Bedenkov V.N., Selyakov M.N. Prediction of information security in automated systems // Regional informatics and information security. Issue 4.- SPb .: SPOISU, 2017.S. 26-27.

Claims (2)

1. A device for predicting random events, containing a control unit (1), a system model unit (2), a unit of simulators of system sections states (3), a failure signal generation unit (4), a registration unit (5), a model data check unit ( 6), the data correction unit of the model (7), N ≥ 2 identical controllers of the operational time of the model elements (8 ₁ - 8 _N ), the main controller of the operational time (9), the catastrophe analysis unit (10) and the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures ( 11), while the output (51) of the registration unit (5) is connected to the input (16) of the control unit (1), the reset output (17) of which is connected to the reset input (32) of the block of state simulators of the system sections (3), the reset input (22) the system model unit (2), the reset input (42) of the failure signal generation unit (4), the reset input (52) of the registration unit (5), the reset input (62) of the model data verification unit (6), the reset input ( 72) data correction unit model (7), reset input (102) unit and the catastrophe analysis (10) and the reset input (112) of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures (11), M ≥ 2 control outputs (14 ₁ - 14 _M ) of the control unit (1) are connected to the corresponding M control inputs (24 ₁ - 24 _M ) of the system model block (2), the synchronizing output (13) of the control unit (1) is connected to the synchronizing input (33) of the block of state simulators of the system sections (3), the synchronizing input (23) of the system model block (2), the synchronizing input ( 43) of the block for generating signals of failures (4), the synchronizing input (53) of the registration unit (5), the synchronizing input (63) of the model data checking unit (6), the synchronizing input (73) of the model data correction unit (7), the synchronizing input ( 103) of the catastrophe analysis unit (10) and the synchronizing input (113) of the unit for setting the threshold values of the number of failures (11), the control output (15) of the control unit (1) is connected to the control input (34) of the unit of simulators of the states of the system sections (3), N group inputs (31 ₁ - 31 _N ) of which are connected to N corresponding group outputs (71 ₁ - 71 _N ) of the model data correction unit (7) and to N corresponding group outputs (68 ₁ - 68 _N ) of the model data check unit (6), N -bit output of which is connected to the N-bit input (74) of the model data correction unit (7), and the signal output (65) of the model data verification unit (6) is connected to the signal input (75) of the model data correction unit (7), N group inputs (61 ₁ - 61 _N ) of the model data verification unit (6) are connected to the corresponding N group outputs (21 ₁ - 21 _N ) of the system model unit (2), the control input (41) of the failure signal generation unit (4) is connected to the control output (76) of the model data correction unit (7) and to the control output (66) of the model data verification unit (6), the control input (67) of which is connected to the control output (26) of the system model unit (2), while N group outputs (35 ₁ - 35 _N ) of the block of simulators of the states of system sections (3) are connected to information inputs (81 ₁ - 81 _N ) of the corresponding N operating time controllers of model elements (8 ₁ - 8 _N ), information outputs (83 ₁ - 83 _N ) of which are connected to the corresponding group inputs (25 ₁ - 25 _N ) of the system model block ( 2), the correcting inputs (27 ₁ - 27 _N ) of which are connected to the correcting outputs (84 ₁ - 84 _N ) of the corresponding N operating time controllers of the model elements (8 ₁ - 8 _N ), the correcting inputs (82 ₁ - 82 _N ) of N controllers operational time of model elements (8 ₁ - 8 _N ) are connected to the corresponding outputs (92 ₁ - 92 _N ) of the main controller of operational time (9), the inputs (91 ₁ - 91 _N ) of which are the corresponding N inputs "Correction of operational time" (01 ₁ - 01 _N ) of the device, the information output (44) of the failure signal generation unit (4) is connected to the information input (104) of the catastrophe analysis unit (10), the test input (105) of which is connected to the output (111) of the unit for setting the threshold values of the quantity refusal ov (11), the control input (114) of which is the input "Input of the threshold values of the number of failures" of the device, the warning output (101) of the catastrophe analysis block (10) is the output of the "Catastrophe threat" of the device, characterized in that the block for analysis of interval average (12), while the reset output (17) of the control unit (1) is connected to the reset input (122) of the interval average analysis unit (12), the signal input (125) of which is connected to the signal output (45) of the failure signal generation unit ( 4), the synchronizing output (13) of the control unit (1) is connected to the synchronizing input (123) of the interval mean analysis unit (12), the signal output (127) of which is connected to the signal input (55) of the registration unit (5), the information input ( 54) of which is connected to the information output (126) of the interval mean analysis unit (12), the information output (106) of the catastrophe analysis unit (10) is connected to the information input (124) of the interval mean analysis unit single (12), the first operator output (120) of the interval mean analysis unit (12) is the output of the "Interval mean reliability values" of the device, the second operator output (121) of the interval mean analysis block (12) is the output of the "Interval average quality values" of the device ... 2. A device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the interval average analysis unit (12) consists of a central computer (12.1), primary (12.2) and secondary (12.3) random access memory (RAM), while T ≥ 1 inputs B (B ₁ - B _T ) of the central calculator (12.1) are combined and are the signal input (125) of the interval mean analysis unit (12), T inputs A (A ₁ - _AT ) of the central calculator (12.1) are combined and are the information input (124) of the unit, the transfer input (C0) of the central computer (12.1) is the reset input (122) of the unit, the clock input (T) and the input (0E) of the permission of the data outputs Y of the central computer (12.1) are combined and are the synchronization input ( 123) of the interval averages analysis unit (12), the inverse output of the transfer generation (G) of the central calculator (12.1) is connected to the enable inputs (12.2-2) and (12.3-2) of the primary (12.2) and secondary (12.3) RAM, respectively, basic outputs (12.2-3) and (12.3 -3) which are respectively the information (126) and signal (127) outputs of the block, the first (Y ₁ ) and second (Y ₂ ) data outputs of the central computer (12.1) are connected to the base inputs, respectively (12.2-1) and (12.3- 1) primary (12.2) and secondary (12.3) RAM, the operator output (12.2-4) of the primary RAM (12.2) is the first operator output (120) of the interval mean analysis unit (12) and the "Interval average reliability values" output of the device, operator the output (12.3-4) of the secondary RAM (12.3) is the second operator output (121) of the interval mean analysis block (12) and the “Interval quality mean values” output of the device.

Images