RU2290689C1 - Device for predicting random events - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: computer engineering; evaluation of reliability and quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible industrial and telecommunicational systems of arbitrary structure, which use cyclical production, telecommunication services and time reservation.

SUBSTANCE: device contains control unit, system model unit, system parts condition imitators unit, failure signal generation unit, registration unit, failure signals control unit, failure signals transformation unit, failure signals recognition unit, failure signals comparator unit.

EFFECT: increased reliability of identification of condition of industrial or telecommunication system in environment of ambiguity of modeled signals parameters, which define the membership of specific condition signal of either no-failure operation state space or failure state space.

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Description

The invention relates to the field of computer technology and can be used to assess the reliability and quality of operation of complex automated and flexible production and telecommunication systems of arbitrary structure, which use the cyclical nature of production, the provision of telecommunication services and temporary reservation.

A device for predicting random events by av. St. USSR No. 1167619, G 06 F 15/46, 1985, bull. No. 14, comprising a control unit, a system model unit, and a registration unit.

The disadvantage of this device is the relatively long time to determine the numerical values of the quality indicators of the functioning of production systems with a cyclical nature of the work.

A device for predicting random events containing a system model block, a fault signal generation block and a registration block (see av. St. USSR No. 1198484, G 05 B 23/02, 1985, bull. No. 26).

However, this device has a relatively long process of evaluating the reliability indicators of complex production systems with temporary redundancy.

The closest in technical essence to the claimed device (prototype) is a device for predicting random events (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44), containing a control unit, a system model block , a block of simulators of the states of system sections, a block for generating fault signals and a registration block. In this case, the information input of the registration unit is connected to the information output of the failure signal generation unit, the control input of which is connected to the control output of the system model unit. The discharge output of the control unit is connected to the discharge inputs of the unit of state simulators of system sections, the system model unit, the failure signal generation unit and the registration unit, M≥2 control outputs of the control unit are connected to the corresponding M control inputs of the system model unit. The synchronizing output of the control unit is connected to the synchronizing inputs of the unit of state simulators of system sections, the system model unit, the failure signal generation unit, and the registration unit. The control output of the control unit is connected to the control input of the block of state simulators of system sections, N≥2 group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system model block, N group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the block of state system simulators. The input of the control unit is connected to the output of the registration unit, the signal input of which is connected to the signal output of the failure signal generation unit.

The prototype realizes the possibility of increasing the speed of evaluating the reliability indicators of complex production and telecommunication systems with a cyclical nature of work and temporary redundancy.

However, the prototype has a drawback - the relatively low reliability of identifying the state of failure-free operation of the system (performing shift tasks in operational time) and the opposite state - failure of the system in conditions of ambiguity (ambiguity) of the parameters of the model of the process of functioning of the studied system. This device allows one to evaluate with high reliability the numerical values of reliability indicators and the quality of functioning of complex automated and flexible production and telecommunication systems of arbitrary structure, the parameters of the models of the functioning processes of which are set quantitatively and the state parameters of which take unambiguous, clearly identifiable values, while the vast majority of parameters states set in the interests of modeling and, as a consequence, an overwhelming Most of the results of forecasting random events in the framework of a really functioning complex system with an incomplete temporary reserve can be objectively identified only at a qualitative level (ambiguous, fuzzy), using a linguistic variable.

By "the presence of an industrial or telecommunication system and its individual sections of an incomplete temporary reserve" is meant the fact that during the system’s functioning some time may be spent to restore its technical characteristics (to restore units that failed during the system’s functioning).

By "operational time" is meant the time allotted for the system to complete a task. The temporary reserve of the system and its sections is formed by increasing the time allocated for the task.

Under the "failure of the system with non-replenished temporary reserve" refers to the untimely completion of a shift job, i.e. a system failure is detected when the operating time has expired, and the shift task has not yet been completed.

Under the "parameters of the model of the process of functioning of the investigated system" refers to the initial data for modeling - a set of numerical values of the characteristics of the properties of a particular process at a given time.

By "results of forecasting random events" we mean the final results of the simulation - the ratio of the time to complete the shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production system (or the number brought to the subscriber of the telecommunications service system).

The purpose of the claimed technical solution is to create a device for predicting random events, providing increased reliability of identification of the state of a production or telecommunication system under conditions of ambiguity (ambiguity) of the parameters of the modeled signals characterizing the belonging of a particular state signal to the state space of the system uptime (performing shift tasks in operational time) either to the failure space of a device capable of high reliably the ability to identify the ratio of the key parameters of the simulated process of functioning of the system - the time it takes to complete the shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production system (or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system) under the conditions inherent in the real process of functioning of the production or telecommunication system with an unreplenished time reserve when the initial data for modeling and, as a result, the results of forecasting random events, causing ivayuschie numerical values of reliability and quality of operation of such complex systems may have both quantitatively and qualitatively (ambiguous, indistinctly, involving linguistic variable) distinct physical meaning.

This goal is achieved by the fact that in the known device for predicting random events, containing a control unit, a system model unit, a unit of state simulators of system sections, a failure signal generation unit and a registration unit, the output of which is connected to the control unit input, a control input of the failure signal generation unit connected to the control output of the system model block, the output of the control unit is connected to the reset inputs of the block of state simulators of system sections, the system model block, block and the generation of fault signals and the registration unit, M≥2 control outputs of the control unit are connected to the corresponding M control inputs of the system model unit, the synchronizing output of the control unit is connected to the synchronizing inputs of the unit of state simulators of system sections, the system model unit, the failure signal generation unit and the registration unit , the control output of the control unit is connected to the control input of the block of state simulators of system sections, N≥2 group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system model block, N group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system state block simulators, additionally include a failure signal control unit, a failure signal conversion unit, a failure signal recognition unit, and a failure signal comparison unit. In this case, the fault and synchronization inputs of the fault signal control unit, the fault signal conversion unit, the fault signal recognition unit and the fault signal comparison unit are connected respectively to the fault and synchronization outputs of the control unit. The information and signal outputs of the failure signal comparison unit are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the registration unit. The information and signal outputs of the failure signal generation unit are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the failure signal comparison unit, the locking input of which is connected to the locking output of the failure signal control unit, the primary and secondary outputs of which are connected respectively to the primary and secondary inputs of the failure signal conversion unit. The primary and secondary outputs of the failure signal conversion unit are connected respectively to the primary and secondary inputs of the failure signal recognition unit, the identification output of which is connected to the identification input of the failure signal comparison unit. The auxiliary output of the failure signal recognition unit is connected to the auxiliary input of the failure signal conversion unit. The control-informational and control-signal inputs of the control unit for failure signals are connected respectively with the additional control-informational and additional control-signal outputs of the block for generating failure signals.

The failure signal control unit consists of a control-informational and control-signal decoders, a control counter and a control analyzer. The inputs of the control-information and control-signal decoders are the control-information and control-signal inputs of the unit, the outputs of the control-information and control and decoders are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the control counter, the reset and synchronizing inputs of which are respectively reset and synchronizing inputs of the block. The information and signal outputs of the control counter are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the control analyzer, the locking output of which is the locking output of the unit. The primary and secondary outputs of the control analyzer are respectively the primary and secondary outputs of the failure signal monitoring unit.

The failure signal conversion unit consists of a conversion counter-calculator, primary and secondary storage elements, primary and secondary conversion elements. Moreover, the primary and secondary inputs of the converting counter of the computer are connected respectively to the input of the primary and main input of the secondary storage elements and are respectively the primary and secondary inputs of the block. The outputs of the primary and secondary storage elements are connected respectively to the main inputs of the primary and secondary conversion elements, the outputs of which are the primary and secondary outputs of the block, respectively. The auxiliary input of the secondary storage element is connected to the auxiliary input of the converting counter-computer and is an auxiliary input of the block. Auxiliary inputs of the primary and secondary conversion elements are connected respectively to the primary and secondary outputs of the converting counter-calculator, the reset and synchronizing inputs of which are respectively the reset and synchronizing inputs of the failure signal conversion unit.

The failure signal recognition unit consists of an identification counter-calculator and an identifier of the level of failure signals. In this case, the output of the identifier of the failure signal level is the identification output of the block, the output of the identification counter-calculator is connected to the input of the identifier of the level of failure signals and is an auxiliary output of the block, the primary and secondary inputs of the identification counter-calculator are respectively the primary and secondary inputs of the block, the reset and clock inputs identification counter-calculator are respectively the reset and synchronizing inputs of the recognition unit of the failure signals.

The unit for comparing failure signals consists of a comparator counter, a failure and actuator elements I. Moreover, the identification input of the actuator And is connected to the identification input of the failure element And is the identification input of the unit, the information and signal outputs of the comparison counter are connected respectively to the main inputs of the failure and actuator And whose outputs are respectively the information and signal outputs of the block. The locking input of the comparator counter is the blocking input of the unit, the information and signal inputs of the comparator counter are respectively the information and signal inputs of the unit. The reset and synchronizing inputs of the comparison counter are respectively the reset and synchronizing inputs of the failure signal comparison unit.

The failure signal generation unit consists of an OR element, a primary and secondary counter, a primary and secondary decoders. In this case, the reset input of the OR element is the reset input of the block, the counting inputs of the primary and secondary counters are, respectively, the synchronizing and control inputs of the block. The output of the additional decoder is connected to the signal input of the OR element and is the signal output of the unit, the output of the OR element is connected to the reset inputs of the main and additional counters, the outputs of which are connected respectively to the inputs of the main and additional decoders and are respectively additional control and information and additional control and signal outputs block. The output of the main decoder is the information output of the failure signal generation unit.

Thanks to a new set of essential features, through the introduction of failure signal monitoring units, conversion of failure signals, recognition of failure signals, and comparison of failure signals, which provide processing and transformation of fuzzy process model parameters of the system under study and, as a result, fuzzy results of predicting random events to the form, suitable for reliable identification of the runtime of the shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production system th (or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system), the claimed device provides the possibility of preliminary analysis and verification of signals about the completion of the shift task and failure signals, which leads to an increase in the reliability of identification of the state of the production or telecommunication system under the conditions of ambiguity (ambiguity) of the parameters of the model of the functioning of the studied system.

The analysis of the prior art made it possible to establish that analogues that are characterized by a combination of features identical to all the features of the claimed technical solution are absent, which indicates the compliance of the claimed device with the patentability condition of "novelty".

Search results for known solutions in this and related fields of technology in order to identify features that match the distinctive features of the claimed object from the prototype showed that they do not follow explicitly from the prior art. The prior art also did not reveal the popularity of the impact provided by the essential features of the claimed invention, the transformations on the achievement of the specified technical result. Therefore, the claimed invention meets the condition of patentability "inventive step".

The claimed device is illustrated by drawings, on which are presented:

figure 1 - structural diagram of a device for predicting random events;

figure 2 is a structural diagram of a control unit for failure signals;

figure 3 is a structural diagram of a unit for converting failure signals;

figure 4 is a structural diagram of a block recognition of failure signals;

figure 5 is a structural diagram of a unit for comparing failure signals;

figure 6 is a structural diagram of a block generating fault signals;

Fig.7 is a structural diagram of a control unit;

on Fig - an example of the structure of a particular system (of six sections, N = 6);

figure 9 is a structural diagram of a block model of the system;

) модельного элемента участка системы;figure 10 is a structural diagram of the n-th (

) model element of the system;

figure 11 is a structural diagram of a block of simulators of the states of system sections;

12 is a block diagram of a registration unit.

The device for predicting random events, shown in Fig. 1, consists of a control unit 1, a system model block 2, a block of state simulators of system 3 sections, a failure signal generation unit 4, a registration unit 5, a failure signal monitoring unit 6, a failure signal conversion unit 7, the failure signal recognition unit 8 and the failure signal comparison unit 9. The output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected to the input 11 of the control unit 1, the control input 41 of the failure signal generation unit 4 is connected to the control output 26 of the model 2 block of the system, the output 12 of the control unit 1 is connected to the reset input 32 of the block of state simulators of the sections of the system 3, the reset input 22 of the block of the model of system 2, the reset input 42 of the block for generating fault signals 4, the reset input 52 of the registration block 5, the reset input 62 failure signal monitoring unit 6, the effluent input conversion unit 72 failure signals 7, the effluent input unit 82 failure identification signals 8 and reset input 92 signal comparison unit 9. Moreover M≥2 bounce control outputs January ₁₄ -14 _M blo and Control 1 are connected to respective control inputs 24 M ₁ -24 _M block model system 2. The synchronizing output 13 of the control unit 1 is connected to the clock input unit 33 simulators portions states system 3, the clock input 23 of the system model unit 2, the clock input 43 of forming unit failure signals 4, the synchronizing input 53 of the registration unit 5, the synchronizing input 63 of the control unit of the failure signals 6, the synchronizing input 73 of the conversion unit of the failure signals 7, the synchronizing input 83 bl Single failure identification signals 8 and the clock input 93 of comparator unit failure signal 9. The control output 15 of the control unit 1 is connected to a control input unit 34 simulators portions states of the system 3, N≥2 group comprises 31 ₁ -31 _N are connected to respective outputs of a group N 21 ₁ -21 _N block of the model of system 2, N group inputs 25 ₁ -25 _{N of} which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs 35 ₁ -35 _{N of the} block of state simulators of sections of the system 3. Information 94 and signal 95 outputs of the block for comparing failure signals 9 are connected respectively to the information 54 and signal 55 inputs of the registration unit 5. Information 44 and signal 45 outputs of the failure signal generation unit 4 are connected respectively to information 91 and signal 96 inputs of the failure signal comparison unit 9, the locking input of which 97 is connected to the locking output 61 of the control unit failure signals 6, the primary 66 and secondary 67 outputs of which are connected respectively to the primary 74 and secondary 75 inputs of the failure signal conversion unit 7. Primary 76 and secondary 77 outputs of the block fail signal transformations 7 are connected respectively to the primary 84 and secondary 85 inputs of the fault signal recognition unit 8, the identification output 81 of which is connected to the identification input 98 of the failure signal comparison unit 9. The auxiliary output 86 of the failure signal recognition unit 8 is connected to the auxiliary input 71 of the signal conversion unit failures 7. Control and information 64 and control and signal 65 inputs of the control unit for fail signals 6 are connected respectively with an additional control and information m 46 and an additional control-signal forming unit 47 outputs four signals failures.

The number "N, (N≥2)" (elements, inputs, outputs, etc.) is determined in accordance with the possible number of sections of the studied production or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 50 (fifty) .

The number "M, (M≥2)" characterizes the possible number of aggregates in the area of the investigated industrial or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 20 (twenty).

The control unit of the failure signals 6 (Fig. 2) is intended for the control recognition and registration of status signals characterizing the parameters obtained as a result of modeling the production or telecommunication process - the time to complete the shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production (number of services provided by the telecommunication) system. In addition, in the control unit of the failure signals 6, it is carried out as a decision-making procedure on the logical-mathematical nature of these parameters, which determine the results of predicting random events (the parameters obtained as a result of modeling are identified unambiguously or ambiguously, vaguely, can be described using a linguistic variable and require additional verification), and the procedure for formulating (assigning a value to membership functions) of two initial solutions - for the initial quantities expert opinions (the number of experts equals two) on the degree of belonging of a particular state signal characterizing a particular parameter to the state space of the system uptime (performing shift tasks in operational time) or to the space of failures.

The control unit for failure signals 6 consists of a control and information 6.1 and a control and signal 6.2 decoders, a control counter 6.3 and a control analyzer 6.4. The inputs 6.1-1 and 6.2-1 of the control and information 6.1 and control and signal 6.2 decoders are respectively control and information 64 and control and signal 65 inputs of block 6, outputs 6.1-2 and 6.2-2 of control and information 6.1 and control and signal 6.2 decoders are connected respectively to the information 6.3-1 and signal 6.3-4 inputs of the control counter 6.3, the reset 6.3-2 and the synchronizing 6.3-3 inputs of which are respectively the reset 62 and synchronizing 63 inputs of the block 6. Information 6.3-5 and the signal 6.3- 6 outputs the control counter 6.3 is connected respectively to the information 6.4-1 and signal 6.4-2 inputs of the control analyzer 6.4, the locking output of which 6.4-5 is the locking output of the 61 block 6. The primary 6.4-3 and secondary 6.4-4 outputs of the control analyzer 6.4 are respectively primary 66 and secondary 67 outputs of the control unit fail signals 6.

The control and information decoder 6.1 of the control unit for failure signals 6 is intended for the control recognition of the status signal characterizing the runtime of the shift task. The control and information decoder 6.1 can be technically implemented in the form of a commercially available decoder described in the book [Bogdanovich M.I., Grel I.N., Prokhorenko V.A. et al. Digital Integrated Circuits: A Guide. - Minsk: Belarus, 1991. S.432-436, Fig.4.46].

The control and signal decoder 6.2 of the failure signal control unit 6 is intended for control recognition of a status signal characterizing the number of products manufactured by the production system or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system for the current shift. The control and signal decoder 6.2 can be technically implemented by analogy with the control and information decoder 6.2 - on the basis of a commercially available decoder described in [Bogdanovich MI, Grel I.N., Prokhorenko V.A. et al. Digital Integrated Circuits: A Guide. - Minsk: Belarus, 1991. S.432-436, Fig.4.46].

The control counter 6.3 of the failure signal control unit 6 is intended for the control recording of status signals characterizing the parameters obtained as a result of modeling a production or telecommunication process - the time to complete a shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production (number of services provided by the telecommunication) system. Check counter 6.3 can be technically implemented on the basis of a digital counter, as described in [Sobotka Z., Stary Y. Microprocessor systems. - M .: Energoizdat, 1981. S.96-100].

The control analyzer 6.4 of the control unit for failure signals 6 is intended to compare the type of the status signal with the reference, uniquely identifiable type of the status signal, to carry out a decision procedure on the logical and mathematical nature of the modeled parameters describing these states - the parameters obtained as a result of modeling are identified unambiguously or ambiguously , fuzzy, can be described using a linguistic variable and require additional verification, as well as the implementation of the procedure formulations (assigning values to membership functions) of two initial decisions - according to the initial number of expert opinions (the number of experts is two) about the degree of belonging of a particular state signal characterizing a particular parameter to the state space of the system uptime (performing shift tasks in operational time) or bounce space. The control analyzer 6.4 is a commercially available programmable TTL comparator of type 74LS85 described in [Jansen J. Digital Electronics Course: Complex ICs for Data Transmission Devices. T.3. - M .: Mir, 1987. S.38-40, Fig.1.21].

The failure signal conversion block 7 (Fig. 3) is intended for mathematically correct conversion of state signals characterizing parameters obtained as a result of modeling a production or telecommunication process and identifiable in fuzzy form (ambiguously) to a form suitable for obtaining reliable (unambiguously interpreted) results forecasting random events.

The failure signal conversion unit 7 consists of a conversion counter-calculator 7.1, primary 7.2 and secondary 7.3 storage elements, primary 7.4 and secondary 7.5 conversion elements. Moreover, the primary 7.1-4 and secondary 7.1-5 inputs of the converting counter of the calculator 7.1 are connected respectively to the input 7.2-1 of the primary 7.2 and the main input 7.3-1 of the secondary 7.3 storage elements and are respectively the primary 74 and secondary 75 inputs of the block 7. Outputs 7.2-2 and 7.3-2 of primary 7.2 and secondary 7.3 storage elements are connected respectively to the main inputs 7.4-1 and 7.5-1 of primary 7.4 and secondary 7.5 conversion elements, the outputs 7.4-3 and 7.5-3 of which are respectively primary 76 and secondary 77 outputs of block 7 Auxiliary input 7.3-3 the secondary storage element 7.3 is connected to the auxiliary input 7.1-1 of the conversion counter-calculator 7.1 and is an auxiliary input 71 of the block 7. Auxiliary inputs 7.4-2 and 7.5-2 of the primary 7.4 and secondary 7.5 conversion elements are connected respectively to the primary 7.1-6 and secondary 7.1 -7 the outputs of the conversion counter-calculator 7.1, the reset 7.1-2 and the synchronizing 7.1-3 inputs of which are respectively the reset 72 and the synchronizing 73 inputs of the failure signal conversion unit 7.

The conversion counter-calculator 7.1 of the failure signal conversion unit 7 is intended for performing an arithmetic operation of subtracting from the unit the values of the membership functions of fuzzy sets coming from block 6 and characterizing the opinions of two experts on the degree of belonging of a particular state signal characterizing a particular parameter to the system state of failure-free operation (performance of shift tasks in operational time) or to the space of failures. The conversion counter-calculator 7.1 is a typical arithmetic logic device and is technically implemented as a commercially available arithmetic logic device (ALU) described in [Drozdov EA, Komarnitsky VA, Pyatibratov AP Electronic computers of the Unified system. - M.: Mechanical Engineering, 1981. S.158-170].

The primary storage element 7.2 of the failure signal conversion block 7 is intended for storing fuzzy information from the first expert and transmitting in binary code the values of the membership functions of fuzzy sets to the main input 7.4-1 of the primary transformation element 7.4. The primary storage element 7.2 is technically implemented in the form of a typical programmable storage device in accordance with the description presented in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.197-199, Fig.6.10].

The secondary storage element 7.3 of the failure signal conversion block 7 is designed to store fuzzy information from the second expert and transmit in binary code the values of the membership functions of the fuzzy sets to the main input 7.5-1 of the secondary transformation element 7.5. The secondary storage element 7.3 differs from the primary storage element 7.2 only in the presence of an auxiliary input 7.3-3, which can technically be easily combined with the main input 7.3-1, which allows the implementation of the secondary storage element 7.3 similar to the primary storage element 7.2, in the form of programmable read-only memory devices, as described in [Gusev VV, Lebedev O.N., Sidorov A.M. Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.197-199, Fig.6.10].

The primary element of the conversion 7.4 of the failure signal conversion block 7 is designed to perform in binary code the mathematical operation of crossing the fuzzy set formulated by the first expert with the addition of the fuzzy set formulated by the second expert. The primary element of transformation 7.4 is a digital comparison node described in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.149-152, Fig.5.19].

The secondary conversion element 7.5 of the failure signal conversion block 7 is designed to perform, in binary code, the mathematical operation of crossing the fuzzy set formulated by the second expert with the addition of the fuzzy set formulated by the first expert. The secondary transform element 7.5 is identical to the primary transform element 7.4 and can also be technically implemented on the basis of the digital comparison node described in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.149-152, Fig.5.19].

The failure signal recognition unit 8 (Fig. 4) is intended for the implementation of final calculations in the framework of the theory of fuzzy sets aimed at final and unambiguous decision-making (recognition) on whether a particular state signal characterizing a particular parameter of the simulated system belongs to the system state of failure-free operation ( fulfillment of shift tasks in operational time) or to the space of failures.

The failure signal recognition unit 8 consists of an identification counter-calculator 8.1 and an identifier of the level of failure signals 8.2. In this case, the output 8.2-2 of the identifier of the level of fault signals 8.2 is the identification output 81 of the block 8, the output 8.1-1 of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 is connected to the input 8.2-1 of the identifier of the level of the signal of failures 8.2 and is an auxiliary output 86 of the block 8, primary 8.1-4 and the secondary 8.1-5 inputs of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 are respectively the primary 84 and secondary 85 inputs of block 8, the reset 8.1-2 and synchronizing 8.1-3 inputs of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 are respectively reset 82 and synchronizing 8 3 inputs of the fault signal recognition unit 8.

The authentication counter-calculator 8.1 of the failure signal recognition unit 8 is designed to implement the final cycle of the disjunctive summation of fuzzy sets - to perform the mathematical operation of combining fuzzy sets resulting from the intersection of the fuzzy set formulated by the first expert and the addition of the fuzzy set formulated by the second expert and the intersection of the fuzzy set formulated by the second expert with the addition of the fuzzy set formulated by the first an expert. The authentication counter-calculator 8.1 can be technically implemented on the basis of the digital comparison node described in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.149-152, Fig.5.19].

The fault signal level identifier 8.2 of the fault signal recognition unit 8 is intended for the implementation of the procedure of unambiguous selection (recognition and assignment) of quantitative values of the ratio of the analyzed fuzzy parameters of the simulated production or telecommunication process - the runtime of the shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production (number of services provided by telecommunication) system. Failure Signal Identifier 8.2 is a digital programmable threshold comparison circuit described in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - SPb .: SPVVIUS, 1996. S.152-156, Fig.5.22].

The failure signal comparison unit 9 (Fig. 5) is designed to implement a number of tasks completing the transformation cycle in the interests of obtaining reliable (unambiguously interpreted) random event prediction results — recording status signals coming from block 4 and characterizing the parameters of the simulated system, as well as for transmitting to the registration unit 5, either initially uniquely (clearly) identifiable status signals from block 4, or mathematically correctly converted in blocks 6, 7 and 8 of the status signals, initially and identifiable in fuzzy form (ambiguous).

The failure signal comparison unit 9 consists of a comparison counter 9.1, a failure 9.2, and an executive 9.3 element I. Moreover, the identification input 9.3-2 of the actuator And 9.3 is connected to the identification input 9.2-2 of the failure element 9.2 and is the identification input 98 of block 9, information 9.1 -6 and the signal outputs 9.1-7 of the comparator counter 9.1 are connected respectively to the main inputs 9.2-1 and 9.3-1 of the failing 9.2 and actuator 9.3 I elements, the outputs 9.2-3 and 9.3-3 of which are respectively the information 94 and signal 95 outputs eye 9. The locking input 9.1-1 of the comparison counter 9.1 is the locking input 97 of block 9, the information 9.1-4 and signal 9.1-5 the inputs of the comparison counter 9.1 are respectively the information 91 and signal 96 inputs of the block 9. Reset 9.1-2 and synchronizing 9.1- The 3 inputs of the comparative counter 9.1 are respectively the reset 92 and the synchronizing 93 inputs of the unit for comparing failure signals 9.

The comparative counter 9.1 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 is designed to register the status signals coming from block 4 and to prohibit their transmission to block 5 (locking) when receiving a blocking signal from block 6, confirming that the parameters of the simulated system that determine the type of status signals identified unclear (ambiguous). Comparing counter 9.1 can be technically implemented on the basis of a digital counter with a single inhibit input, described in [Sobotka Z., Stary Y. Microprocessor systems. - M .: Energoizdat, 1981. P.101-102].

Failure element I 9.2 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 is intended for conjunction and transmission to the registration unit 5 of the reliable value of the parameter of the simulated system - the time of the shift task execution, indicating the failure of the production or telecommunication system (failure to complete the shift task on time). Failure element And 9.2 can be technically implemented on the basis of a commercially available element And, described in detail in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - St. Petersburg: SPVVIUS, 1995. S.13-15, Fig. 1.2].

The actuating element And 9.3 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 is intended for conjunction and transmission to the registration unit 5 of the reliable value of the parameter of the simulated system - the number of products manufactured by the production (number of services provided by the telecommunication) system, indicating the completion of the shift task. The actuating element And 9.3 is similar to the failing element And 9.2 and can also be technically implemented on the basis of the commercially available element And, as shown in [Gusev VV, Lebedev ON, Sidorov AM Fundamentals of pulsed and digital technology. - St. Petersburg: SPVVIUS, 1995. S.13-15, Fig. 1.2].

The failure signal generation unit 4 (FIG. 6) is intended for recording and decoding the results of system simulation carried out in unit 2 — accounting and generating numerical values of the number of products manufactured by the production system, or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system in the current shift. The block diagram of the unit for generating fault signals 4 is known, described in detail in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44, figure 5), and also shown in Fig.6 this description. The fault signal generation unit 4 (see FIG. 6) contains an OR 4.1 element, a primary 4.2 and an additional 4.3 counters, a primary 4.4 and an additional 4.5 decoders. The difference between the circuit proposed in Fig.6 of this description from the well-known and presented in the prototype is that the unit for generating fault signals 4 is equipped with additional control and information 46 and additional control and signal outputs 47 (see Fig.6), which are connected respectively to the outputs 4.2-3 and 4.3-3 of the main 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters.

The control unit 1, which is part of the general block diagram, is designed to generate control signals - level "0" (the mode when the device blocks are restored to the initial state) or level "1" (corresponding to the "Operation" mode), generating clock pulses that ensure operation the entire device for specific cycles and the generation of single pulses that synchronize the operation of all blocks of the device. The structure of the control unit 1 is known, described in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44, figure 2) and is illustrated in Fig.7 of this description. The control unit 1 (see Fig. 7) contains a pulse shaper 1.1, a clock generator 1.2, a switch 1.3, an AND 1.4 element, a synchronous counter 1.5 and a decoder 1.6.

The model block of system 2, which is part of the general block diagram, is designed to simulate the functioning of interconnected sections of a specific production or telecommunication system, an example of the structure of which is shown in Fig. 8. The structural diagram of the model 2 block of the system 2 is known, includes N≥2 model elements of the system section, interconnected in accordance with the structure of the production or telecommunication system, described in detail in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46 , 1988, bull. No. 44, Fig. 8) and is shown in Fig. 9, where, as an example, the number of sections N = 6 and the sections are indicated by Latin numbers I, II, III, IV, V and VI.

) из участков системы, описана в прототипе (см. ав. св. СССР № 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, бюл. № 44, фиг.3) и проиллюстрирована в качестве примера для некоторого n-го модельного элемента участка системы 2.n (

) на фиг.10 данного описания. При этом n-й модельный элемент участка системы 2.n (см. фиг.10) содержит с первого по четвертый элементы ИЛИ 2.n.1-2.n.4, L (где L≥2) элементов И 2.n.5₁-2.n.5_L, первичный элемент И 2.n.6, вторичный элемент И 2.n.7, первичный триггер 2.n.8, вторичный триггер 2.n.9, первичный счетчик 2.n.10, вторичный счетчик 2.n.11, первичный дешифратор 2.n.12 и вторичный дешифратор 2.n.13. Причем число "L, (L≥2)" характеризует возможное количество параллельно работающих участков исследуемой производственной или телекоммуникационной системы и, как правило, составляет от 2 (двух) до 20 (двадцати).Each of the model elements of the section of the system 2.1-2.N of the block of the model 2 system is designed to simulate the cyclic process of functioning of one of the sections of a production or telecommunication system, taking into account failures and restoration of aggregates of the section that occur at random times. The structure of each of the model elements of the section of the system 2.1-2.N is known, identical for any nth (

) from sections of the system described in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44, figure 3) and is illustrated as an example for some n-th model element of the site system 2.n (

) in figure 10 of this description. Moreover, the nth model element of the system 2.n section (see Fig. 10) contains the first through fourth elements OR 2.n.1-2.n.4, L (where L≥2) elements AND 2.n .5 ₁ -2.n.5 _L , primary element And 2.n.6, secondary element And 2.n.7, primary trigger 2.n.8, secondary trigger 2.n.9, primary counter 2.n .10, secondary counter 2.n.11, primary decoder 2.n.12 and secondary decoder 2.n.13. Moreover, the number "L, (L≥2)" characterizes the possible number of parallel working sections of the studied production or telecommunication system and, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 20 (twenty).

The block of state simulators of sections of system 3, which is part of the general block diagram, is intended to simulate the cyclic process of functioning of a production or telecommunication system, taking into account failures and restoration of site aggregates that occur at random times. The structure of the block of state simulators of sections of the system 3 is known, described in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44, figure 4) and is presented in figure 11. The block of simulators of states of sections of system 3 (see Fig. 11) consists of N≥2 simulators of states of sections of system 3.1-3.N, each of which contains, for example, for a simulator of states of sections of system 3.1: element I 3.1.1, one-shot 3.1 .2, counter 3.1.3, decoder 3.1.4, element NOT 3.1.5, М≥2 random pulse generators 3.1.6 ₁ -3.1.6 _M , element AND-OR-NOT 3.1.7 and element OR 3.1.8 .

The registration unit 5, which is part of the general structural scheme, is intended for registration, accounting and accumulation of statistical data in the interest of obtaining numerical values of the indicators of reliability and quality of functioning of a production or telecommunication system. The structure of the registration unit 5 is known, described in the prototype (see av. St. USSR No. 1441421, G 06 F 15/46, 1988, bull. No. 44, Fig.6) and is presented in Fig.12 of this description. The registration unit 5 (see Fig. 12) consists of the main element And 5.1, K (where K≥2) elements And 5.2 ₁ -5.2 _K , frequency divider 5.3, element OR 5.4, primary 5.5, secondary 5.6 and tertiary 5.7 counters, K≥2 counters 5.8 ₁ -5.8 _K , quaternary counter 5.9, primary 5.10, secondary 5.11, tertiary 5.12 and quaternary 5.13 decoders, one-shot 5.14, switch 5.15 and element NOT 5.16. Moreover, the number "K, (K≥2)" characterizes the possible number of system failures per cycle of operation, as a rule, ranges from 2 (two) to 50 (fifty) and is used in the interest of obtaining the parameters of the empirical distribution of the operating time of a production or telecommunication system to failure.

A device for predicting random events works as follows.

It is known that from the point of view of modeling parameters, the ratio of which characterizes the state of failure-free operation of the system (performing shift tasks in operational time) and the opposite state - failure of the system, it is possible to represent these parameters in the form of a set (transposed vector) [1, 2] of the form:

- транспонированный вектор, однозначно (четко) или неоднозначно (нечетко) характеризующий пространство параметров состояния системы. Элементами данного вектора являются: t_всз - время выполнения сменного задания; χ_и(у) - количество изделий, изготовленных производственной системой (или количество доведенных до абонента телекоммуникационной системы услуг). В рамках "идеальной" модели (отсутствие шумов, ошибок и т.д.) эти параметры моделей процессов функционирования заданы количественно и параметры состояния системы принимают однозначные, четко идентифицируемые значения. Проблема состоит в том, что при моделировании реальных процессов функционирования производственной или телекоммуникационной системы с непополняемым временным резервом, для того, чтобы получить адекватную модель, необходимо учитывать нестационарность работы системы, динамичный характер изменения как времени выполнения сменного задания, так и количество изделий, необходимо учитывать ошибки (шумы) моделирования основных и сопутствующих процессов. Для этого существует возможность идентификации состояния производственной или телекоммуникационной системы в условиях неоднозначности (нечеткости) параметров моделируемых сигналов, характеризующих принадлежность конкретного сигнала состояния к пространству состояния безотказной работы системы (выполнения сменных заданий за оперативное время) либо к пространству отказов. В этом случае выражение (1), характеризующее нечеткую информацию моделирования (нечеткие знания), обуславливающую степень принадлежности анализируемого состояния системы к пространству состояния безотказной работы или пространству отказов, имеет видWhere

- a transposed vector that unambiguously (clearly) or ambiguously (fuzzily) characterizes the space of system state parameters. The elements of this vector are: t _vsz - time to complete a shift task; χ _{and (y)} - the number of products manufactured by the production system (or the number brought to the subscriber of the telecommunication system of services). Within the framework of the “ideal” model (the absence of noise, errors, etc.), these parameters of the models of functioning processes are quantified and the state parameters of the system take on unambiguous, clearly identifiable values. The problem is that when modeling the real processes of functioning of a production or telecommunication system with an incomplete time reserve, in order to obtain an adequate model, it is necessary to take into account the unsteadiness of the system, the dynamic nature of the change in both the time of the shift task and the number of products, it is necessary to take into account errors (noise) of modeling the main and related processes. For this, it is possible to identify the state of a production or telecommunication system under conditions of ambiguity (ambiguity) of the parameters of the modeled signals characterizing the belonging of a particular state signal to the state space of the failure-free operation of the system (performing shift tasks in operational time) or to the failure space. In this case, expression (1), which characterizes fuzzy modeling information (fuzzy knowledge), which determines the degree of belonging of the analyzed state of the system to the state space of failure-free operation or the space of failures, has the form

- транспонированный вектор пространства неоднозначно (нечетко) идентифицируемых параметров модели системы, элементы которого получены с помощью экспертов в рамках простейших, аппаратно реализуемых экспертных систем. Данная трактовка модели идентификации параметров модели системы позволяет ввести алгоритм последовательного сведения нечетко идентифицируемых параметров к виду, обуславливающему возможность параметрической и однозначной идентификации параметров модели системы, повысить достоверность результатов прогнозирования случайных событий.Where

- the transposed space vector of ambiguously (fuzzy) identifiable parameters of the system model, the elements of which are obtained with the help of experts in the framework of the simplest, hardware-implemented expert systems. This interpretation of the model identification model of the system allows you to introduce an algorithm for sequentially reducing fuzzy identifiable parameters to a form that makes it possible to parametrically and unambiguously identify the parameters of the system model, to increase the reliability of the results of forecasting random events.

In the framework of a traditional expert system, to solve the problem of combining the opinions of experts whose knowledge is used in the form of pre-formed data on the possible values of the parameters of the system model, and therefore on the possible values of the degree to which a particular state of the system belongs to the state space of fault-free operation or the space of failures of the typical operations on fuzzy sets - the operation of disjunctive summation [1-6]. In this case, the disjunctive sum, for example, of two fuzzy sets (by the number of experts) is determined in terms of the associations and intersections of fuzzy sets as follows:

(

) - нечеткое множество, характеризующее мнение первого А (второго В) эксперта о степени принадлежности сигнала состояния системы, характеризуемого соотношением моделируемых параметров системы - t_всз (время выполнения сменного задания) и χ_и(у) (количество изделий, изготовленных производственной системой или количество доведенных до абонента телекоммуникационной системы услуг), к пространству состояния безотказной работы (ПСБР);

(

) - дополнения этих нечетких множеств;

(

) - нечеткое множество, характеризующее мнение первого А (второго В) эксперта о степени принадлежности сигнала состояния системы, характеризуемого соотношением моделируемых параметров системы, к пространству состояния отказов (ПСО);

(

) - дополнения этих нечетких множеств. Полученные дизъюнктивные суммы

и

характеризуют соответственно объединенное мнение (в нашем случае двух, А и В) экспертов о значениях соотношения нечетких моделируемых параметров, обуславливающего принадлежность конкретного состояния производственной или телекоммуникационной системы к ПСБР либо ПСО. Для однозначной верификации принадлежности (либо не принадлежности) конкретного состояния системы к ПСБР либо ПСО объединенное мнение экспертов анализируется на основе специальной функции (функции α-уровня), являющейся критерием однозначного выбора (присвоения) количественных значений для моделируемых и анализируемых нечетких параметров системы и определения их соотношения [2-4]. Эта функция (α-уровень) задается заранее как порог, определяющий однозначность принадлежности конкретного состояния к ПСБР или ПСО, а множеством α-уровня нечеткого множества, характеризующего объединенное мнение экспертов, называется обычное множествоWhere

(

) is a fuzzy set that characterizes the opinion of the first A (second B) expert on the degree of belonging of the system status signal, characterized by the ratio of the simulated system parameters - t _vsz (time for the shift task) and χ _{and (y)} (the number of products manufactured by the production system or the number brought to the subscriber of the telecommunication system of services), to the space of the state of failure-free operation (PSBR);

(

) - additions to these fuzzy sets;

(

) is a fuzzy set that characterizes the opinion of the first A (second B) expert on the degree of belonging of the system state signal, characterized by the ratio of the simulated system parameters, to the failure state space (FSS);

(

) are complements of these fuzzy sets. Disjunctive Amounts Received

and

respectively, they characterize the joint opinion (in our case of two, A and B) of experts on the values of the ratio of fuzzy simulated parameters, which determines whether a particular state of a production or telecommunication system belongs to the PSBR or PSO. To unambiguously verify the belonging (or not belonging) of a particular state of the system to the PSBR or PSO, the combined expert opinion is analyzed on the basis of a special function (α-level function), which is a criterion for the unambiguous selection (assignment) of quantitative values for the modeled and analyzed fuzzy system parameters and their determination relations [2-4]. This function (α-level) is set in advance as a threshold that determines the uniqueness of a particular state belonging to the PSBR or PSO, and the usual set is called the set of the α-level of a fuzzy set that characterizes the united opinion of experts

Expression (5), for example, characterizes the fact that if the value of the membership function (degree of confidence) of the integrated expert opinion for a particular state of the simulated system exceeds or is equal to the α level, this state is uniquely identified (clearly defined) and belongs to the state space of failure-free system operation.

The algorithm of disjunctive summation of fuzzy sets considered and described in detail in [1-5] allows mathematically correct, within the framework of modeling the real process of functioning of complex automated and flexible production and telecommunication systems of arbitrary structure, to eliminate the uncertainty (ambiguity, fuzziness) in identifying numerical values and the ratio of key parameters of the simulated process (time of the shift task and the number of products manufactured system, or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of a telecommunication system), thereby increasing the reliability of identifying the state of a production or telecommunication system, and ultimately increasing the reliability of estimating the numerical values of reliability indicators and the quality of functioning of such systems.

) блока модели системы 2, счетчик 3.1.3 блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3, основной 4.2 и дополнительный 4.3 счетчики блока формирования сигналов отказов 4, первичный 5.5, вторичный 5.6, третичный 5.7, четверичный 5.9 счетчики, К счетчиков 5.8₁-5.8_К блока регистрации 5, контрольный счетчик 6.3 блока контроля сигналов отказов 6, преобразующий счетчик-вычислитель 7.1 блока преобразования сигналов отказов 7, опознавательный счетчик-вычислитель 8.1 блока опознавания сигналов отказов 8 и сравнивающий счетчик 9.1 блока сравнения сигналов отказов 9.With this in mind, forecasting random events in the claimed device. Before starting the operation of the device using the switch 1.3 of the control unit 1 to the second input 1.4-2 of the AND element 1.4 of the control unit 1 and to the gate input 3.1.4-2 of the decoder 3.1.4 of the block of state simulators of sections of the system 3 is fed "0". Then, from the output 1.1-1 of the pulse shaper 1.1, a short pulse is supplied through the discharge output 12 of the control unit 1 to set the device blocks to the initial state. According to this pulse, the synchronous counter 1.5 of control unit 1, primary 2.n.10 and secondary 2.n.11 are reset to zero for each of the model elements of the system section (in our example, element 2.n, where

) block of the model 2 system, counter 3.1.3 of the block of state simulators of sections of system 3, primary 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters of the block for generating fault signals 4, primary 5.5, secondary 5.6, tertiary 5.7, quaternary 5.9 counters, K counters 5.8 ₁ -5.8 _K block registration 5, the control counter 6.3 of the failure signal monitoring unit 6, the converting counter-calculator 7.1 of the failure signal conversion unit 7, the identification counter-calculator 8.1 of the failure signal recognition unit 8 and the comparison counter 9.1 of the failure signal comparison unit 9.

In addition, upon receipt of this pulse, the primary 2.n.8 and secondary 2.n.9 triggers for each of the model elements of the system section (in our case, using the example of some element 2.n - Fig. 10) of the system model block 2 and the divider the frequencies 5.3 of the registration unit 5 are set to a single state, M random-pulse generators 3.1.6 ₁ -3.1.6 _{M of} each of the simulators 3.1-3.N of the block of state simulators of sections of system 3 are restored to the initial state corresponding to the operational state of all units of a production or telecommunication Istemi. After that, the device is ready for operation.

Using the switch 1.3 of the control unit 1, the level "1" corresponding to the "Work" mode is supplied to the second input 1.4-2 of the AND 1.4 element of the control unit 1 (at the first input 1.4-1 of which "1" is present at that moment) and to the gate input 3.1.4-2 of the decoder 3.1.4 block state simulators sections of the system 3, thereby allowing it to work. At the output 1.4-4 of the element And 1.4 of the control unit 1, pulses of the clock pulse generator 1.2 appear, the pulse distributor on the synchronous counter 1.5 and the decoder 1.6 starts to work. On the M control outputs 14 ₁ -14 _M of the control unit 1, single pulses alternately appear, synchronizing the operation of the entire device. The control outputs 14 ₁ -14 _M of the control unit 1 are connected to the control inputs 24 ₁ -24 _M of the system model block 2, connected to the control inputs 2.n-2 ₁ -2.n-2 _{M of} each of the model elements of the system section (in our case - on the example of element 2.n, see figure 10) of the block model of the system 2.

) блока модели системы 2 совместно с соответствующим имитатором 3.n (

) состояния участков системы блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3) предназначен для моделирования циклического процесса функционирования одного из участков производственной или телекоммуникационной системы с учетом отказов и восстановлений агрегатов участка, происходящих в случайные моменты времени.Each of the N model elements of the system site (for example, element 2.n (

) of the model block of system 2 together with the corresponding simulator 3.n (

) the state of sections of the system block of the simulators of the state of sections of the system 3) is intended to simulate the cyclic process of functioning of one of the sections of a production or telecommunication system, taking into account failures and recoveries of aggregates of a section that occur at random times.

The operation of each of the N state simulators of sections of the system of the block of state simulators of sections of the system 3 will be explained using the example of the state simulator of sections of the system 3.1 (i.e., n = 1). A simulator of states of system sections 3.1. works as follows (Fig.11).

The second input 3.1-3 of the simulator 3.1 through the synchronizing input 33 of the block of state simulators of the sections of the system 3, when the device is in operation, receives a clock sequence of pulses from the synchronizing output 13 (from the output 1.6-3 of the decoder 1.6) of the control unit 1. In addition, the clock sequence of pulses from the synchronizing the output 13 of the control unit 1 is fed to the synchronizing input 23 of the system model unit 2, the synchronizing input 43 of the failure signal generation unit 4, the synchronizing input 53 of the registration unit 5, synchronizing the stroke 63 of the failure signal monitoring unit 6, the synchronizing input 73 of the failure signal conversion unit 7, the synchronizing input 83 of the failure signal recognition unit 8 and the synchronizing input 93 of the failure signal comparison unit 9. The pulse frequency of the sequence sets the scale of the simulation of the functioning of a production or telecommunication system, i.e. e. the time interval between two adjacent pulses of the sequence corresponds to a certain real-time interval of the operation of a production or telecommunication system.

At the third input 3.1-4 of the simulator 3.1, during operation of the device, there is a single signal coming through the control input 34 of the block of state simulators of sections of the system 3 from the control output 15 of the control unit 1. At the fourth input 3.1-1 of the simulator 3.1 connected to the first group output 21 ₁ block of the model of system 2 (output 2.1-6 of the first (of the N possible) model elements of the system 2.1), a single signal appears at the time of receipt of the product requiring processing on the system. On the leading edge of this signal, the one-shot 3.1.2 generates a short pulse, resetting to zero the counter 3.1.3 of the state simulator of sections of the system 3.1 of the block of state simulators of sections of the system 3.

) агрегата во включенном состоянии (принимается допущение, что в выключенном состоянии износа агрегата не происходит и он отказать не может).Counter 3.1.3 and decoder 3.1.4 (Fig. 11) are used to distribute pulses — to set the operation sequence diagram for the aggregates of a section of a production or telecommunication system. After resetting counter 3.1.3 to zero, clock pulses begin to arrive at its counter input 3.1.3-1. The moments of switching on and off of individual units of the site are modeled by the appearance and disappearance of single pulses at the outputs 3.1.4-3 ₁ -3.1.4-3 _{M of the} decoder 3.1.4 corresponding to the units. A single signal from the mth (m = 1, ..., M) output 3.1.4-3 _{m of the} decoder 3.1.4 is fed to the control input 3.1.6-2 _{m of the} mth random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m and provides processes in it that mimic the possible m-th failure (

) the unit in the on state (the assumption is made that in the off state the unit does not wear and cannot fail).

) агрегат находится в работоспособном состоянии, чему соответствует нулевой сигнал на выходе 3.1.6-3_m m-го генератора случайных импульсов 3.1.6_m, на выходе 3.1.7-3 элемента И-ИЛИ-НЕ 3.1.7 присутствует единичный сигнал, поступающий через соответствующий (в нашем случае первый) групповой выход 35₁ блока имитаторов состояний участков системы 3 на соответствующий (в нашем случае первый) групповой вход 25₁ блока модели системы 2. Это свидетельствует о нормальном ходе технологического или телекоммуникационного процесса на n-м (в нашем случае первом, n=1, где n может принимать значения

) участке производственной или телекоммуникационной системы.In case the mth (

) the unit is in working condition, which corresponds to a zero signal at the output 3.1.6-3 _{m of the} m-th random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m , at the output 3.1.7-3 of the AND-OR-NOT 3.1.7 element there is a single signal, coming through the corresponding (in our case, the first) group output 35 _{1 of the} block of state simulators of sections of system 3 to the corresponding (in our case the first) group input 25 _{1 of the} block of the model of system 2. This indicates the normal course of the technological or telecommunication process on the nth ( in our case, the first, n = 1, where n m Jet take values

) a section of a production or telecommunication system.

If the m-th unit fails at the point in time when, according to the sequence diagram, it must participate in processing the product (in transmitting information), then at the output 3.1.6-3 _{m of the} m-th random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m a single signal appears, at the output 3.1.7-3 of the AND-OR-NOT element 3.1.7 is a zero signal, which is perceived by the unit of the system 2 model as a signal about the violation of the technological or telecommunication process at the nth (in our case, the first one, where n = 1,. .., N) a section of a production or telecommunication system. In this case, the counter 3.1.3 and the decoder 3.1.4 (Fig. 11) are stopped until the failed unit of the production or telecommunication system is restored (the assumption is made that the unit failures are non-depreciating in nature).

Thus, the time taken by a section of a production or telecommunication system to process one product (or to provide one telecommunication service), when simulating unit failures, increases by the time it takes to restore their working condition.

The distribution laws (and their parameters) of the pulse duration at the output of the random pulse generator 3.1.6 _m (recovery time of the m-th unit) and the duration of the pauses between them (operational state of the unit) are selected on the basis of statistical data on MTBF and recovery time of the units, working in similar manufacturing or telecommunication systems.

After the processing of the product is completed at the nth (in our case, the first, where n = 1, ..., N) section, a single signal appears at the (M + 1) -th output of 3.1.4-3 _{M + 1} decoder 3.1.4 and through the inverter - the element NOT 3.1.5 prohibits the passage of clock pulses to the input 3.1.3-1 of the counter 3.1.3. The counter 3.1.3 and the decoder 3.1.4 stop until the state simulator of sections of the system 3.n (in our example, 3.1) arrives at the fourth input 3.1.1 of the leading edge of the next pulse, which corresponds to the arrival of the next product on the site.

Information on the progress of the technological or telecommunication process in the sections comes from N group outputs 35 ₁ -35 _{N of the} block of state simulators of sections of the system 3 through N group inputs 25 ₁ -25 _{N of the} block of the model of system 2 (Fig. 9) to the third inputs 2.n- 3 of each n-th of N model elements of the system section (in our example, to the inputs of element 2.n, see Fig. 10).

The work of each of the N model elements of the system section (Fig. 9) will be examined by the example of the functioning of some abstract n-th model element of the system section 2.n. The model element of the system 2.n section works as follows (Fig. 10). After applying to the first input 2.n-1 a model element of a portion of the system 2.n a pulse to set the initial state of the device, the primary trigger 2.n.8 is in a single state, the secondary trigger 2.n.9, primary 2.n.10 and secondary 2.n.11 counters - in zero. The primary trigger 2.n.8 is designed to fix the presence of the product on the site, the secondary trigger 2.n.9 - to fix the fact that the processing of the product by the site units (completion of the next phase of the technological or telecommunication process).

Modeling the functioning of sections of a production or telecommunication system is carried out immediately after setting the "Work" mode using switch 1.3 of control unit 1. A single signal that determines the presence of a product requiring processing on the site from direct output 2.n.8-3 of the primary trigger 2.n .8 arrives at the input of the corresponding nth simulator of the state of the system 3.n section and starts the counter 3.n.3 and the decoder 3.n.4 working in accordance with the operation sequence diagram of the units of the system zvodstvennoy or telecommunications system. The signal from the output 3.n-5 of the corresponding n-th simulator of the state of the portion of the system 3.n is fed to the third input 2.n-3 of the n-th model element of the portion of the system 2.n. If the unit of the section that is currently processing the product is in an operable state (a single signal at the third input 2.n-3 of the n-th model element of the section of the system 2.n), then the clock pulses from the first 2.n-1 and from the second 2.n-2 ₁ -2.n-2 _M inputs of the n-th model element of the section of the system 2.n enter through the primary 2.n.6 and secondary 2.n.7 elements AND to the counting inputs 2.n. 10-1 and 2.n.11-2 of the primary 2.n.10 and secondary 2.n.11 counters, respectively (see Fig. 10). If the unit of the section that is currently processing the product fails, then at the third input 2.n-3 of the model element of the section of system 2.n a signal of zero level appears and the contents of the secondary counter 2.n.11 ceases to increase.

The secondary counter 2.n.11 (see Fig. 10) records the net (excluding process or telecommunication process stops due to unit failures) product processing time (telecommunication services) on the site, primary counter 2.n.10 - its time stay there until the end of processing (the moment the end of the provision of telecommunications services).

The primary decoder 2.n.12 (see Fig. 10) is set to a binary code of operational time, i.e. the time allocated for the implementation of a certain phase of the technological or telecommunication process, the secondary decoder 2.n.13 - on the time code necessary for processing the product (providing telecommunication services) with faultlessly working units of the site. The moment of the end of product processing (the moment of the end of the provision of telecommunication services) is modeled by the appearance of a single signal at the output 2.n.13-2 of the secondary decoder 2.n.13 and the installation of the secondary trigger 2.n.9 in a single state. The secondary counter 2.n.11 is reset to zero. At the second output 2.n-8 of the n-th model element of the system 2.n section (see Fig. 10), a single signal appears, which means the completion of the corresponding phase of the technological or telecommunication process and the product is ready for transfer to the next (n + 1) - mu site. At the inverted output 2.n.9-4 of the secondary trigger 2.n.9, a zero signal appears, which prohibits a further increase in the contents of the primary counter 2.n.10.

A single signal from the second output 2.n-8 of the n-th model element of the system 2.n section (see Fig. 10), indicating the completion of the product processing by the production or telecommunication system section, is fed to the fifth input 2. (n + 1) -5 of the next (n + 1) -th model element of the system 2. (n + 1) section performing the next phase of a technological or telecommunication process. If this section is ready to receive the product (a single signal at the inverse output of the primary trigger 2. (n + 1) .8), then the corresponding element And 2. (n + 1) .5 _{l is} triggered (where l = 1, ... , L) and the primary trigger 2. (n + 1) .8 goes into a single state. This simulates the acceptance of the product by the subsequent section.

At the same time, a single signal from the direct output 2.n.9-3 of the secondary trigger 2.n.9 (see Fig. 10) is fed to the third output 2.n-9 of the product receiving model element of the system 2.n. This output is connected to the fourth input 2. (n-1) -4 of the previous (n-1) -th transmitting model element of the system 2. (n-1) section, and a single signal sets primary 2. (n-1) .8 , secondary 2. (n-1) .9 triggers and primary counter 2. (n-1) .10 of the (n-1) -th transmitting model element of system 2. (n-1) section to the zero state. In this way, the release of a section of a production or telecommunication system and its readiness for acceptance for processing another product are simulated.

If the subsequent, in our example, some (n + 1) -th section of N is not ready to receive the product (i.e., the product is already being processed on it), then the product remains in the previous nth section until the subsequent release .

The presence of L elements And (2.n.5 ₁ -2.n.5 _L ) in the model elements of the system section is necessary for synchronizing the reception of products from several parallel sections performing the previous phase of the technological or telecommunication process to the site. Using synchronization, the possibility of simulating the simultaneous reception of several products at a site is excluded, which is impossible in real production or telecommunication systems of the class in question.

If the processing of the product by the nth section is completed after the expiration of operational time, then at the moment of its completion, a single signal appears at the output 2.n.12-2 of the primary decoder 2.n.12, which is fed to the second output 2.n-8 n- th model element of the system 2.n. This signal indicates a failure of a section of the production system. For the failure of a section of the system that has an incomplete temporary reserve, it is assumed that he did not timely perform the corresponding phase of the technological or telecommunication process of processing the product (providing telecommunication services), i.e. the failure occurs when the phase of the technological or telecommunication process has not yet been completed, and the operational time has already expired (the recovery time of the units of the site exceeds the non-renewable time reserve).

To fix the number of failures of sections of a production or telecommunication system, which is sometimes necessary to identify the bottlenecks of the system, any typical recording equipment (not shown) can be used to calculate single pulses. To do this, its inputs must be connected to the second outputs (inputs 2.n-8 for element 2.n) of each of the N model elements of the system section.

Consider the operation of the block model of the system 2 (Fig.9), using the structure of the production (telecommunication) system selected as an example, the diagram of which is presented in Fig.8.

The production (telecommunication) system consists of N = 6 sections, some of which (III, IV, V) have low productivity and therefore work in parallel, realizing one of the phases of the technological or telecommunication process. When constructing the model block of the production (telecommunication) system (Fig. 9), the assumption is made that at the input of the production or telecommunication system there is an unlimited supply of raw materials (resource) for the manufacture of products or the provision of telecommunication services. This is simulated by applying from the synchronizing input 23 to the fifth input 2.1-5 the first model element of the section of the system 2.1 of the level "1". It is also assumed that the acceptance of finished products to the warehouse or bringing telecommunication services to subscribers of the telecommunication system from section VI is made without delay. Therefore, the fourth input 2.6-4 of the VIth model element of the system 2.6 section is connected to its second output 2.6-8.

When modeling the manufacturing process of a product (provision of telecommunication services), its transfer is simulated from a site that has completed the next phase of a technological or telecommunication process to a site that implements the next phase. In parallel operation of several sections (III, IV, V), the product is transferred to the one that is free at the time of transfer. If several sections are free, then the product can be transferred to one of them at random. The number of parallel working sections when compiling a system model and constructing a system model block 2 is limited by the number of L elements And (2.n.5 ₁ -2.n.5 _L ) in the model elements of the system section. When constructing a block of a model of a system 2, the number of sequentially working sections is limited only by the number of sections available in a real production or telecommunication system.

When the device is operating, each pulse at the control output 26 of the model 2 block of the system 2 corresponds to the product manufactured by the production system or to the service brought to the subscriber of the telecommunication system. These pulses are fed to the control input 41 of the unit for generating fault signals 4 (Fig.6). An additional counter 4.3 of the failure signal generation unit 4 captures the unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) values from the unit 2 of the number of products manufactured by the production system, or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system in the current shift and transmits this information in binary code to the input 4.5-1 additional decoder 4.5 and through an additional control and signal output 47 of the unit for generating fault signals 4 to the control and signal input 65 of the control unit for fault signals Call 6 for the implementation of the procedure for eliminating uncertainty (ambiguity, fuzziness) in identifying numerical values and the ratio of parameters of the simulated process. When this quantity (χ _{and (y)} ) reaches the planned shift (the shift task is completed), then at the output of the additional decoder 4.5 of the fault signal generation unit 4, a short-term single signal appears, which, through the OR element 4.1, resets the main 4.2 and additional 4.3 counters.

The main counter 4.2 captures the unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) values of the runtime of the shift job coming from block 2 and transmits this information in binary code to input 4.4-1 of the main decoder 4.4 and through the additional control and information output 46 of the block for generating fault signals 4 to the control and information 64 of the control unit for failure signals 6 to implement the procedure for eliminating uncertainty (ambiguity, fuzziness) when identifying numerical values and the ratio of parameters th process. If the execution time of the shift task (t _VSZ ) is delayed, then the output 4.4-2 of the main decoder 4.4 of the failure signal generation block 4 displays a single signal indicating the failure of the production or telecommunication system (failure to complete the shift task on time).

Pre-generated unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) signals about the completion of shift tasks from the output 4.5-2 of an additional decoder 4.5 through the signal output 45 of the block for generating fault signals 4 are sent to the signal input 96 of the block for comparing fault signals 9 (Fig. 5) and a comparative counter 9.1, which stores this information and maintains a preliminary record of the volume (in shift tasks) of products manufactured or telecommunications services rendered. Pre-generated unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) failure signals are received from the output 4.4-2 of the main decoder 4.4 through the information output 44 of the failure signal generation unit 4 to the information input 91 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 and are also recorded by the comparison counter 9.1.

Control recognition, registration of status signals characterized by unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) parameters obtained as a result of modeling a production or telecommunication process, as well as the decision-making procedure on the logical and mathematical nature of these parameters and the procedure for formulating decisions on the degree of membership of a particular state signal , characterizing a specific parameter, to the state space of the system uptime (performing shift tasks per operator vnoe time) or to the space failures is performed in the signal control unit 6 failures (2) as follows. The numerical value of the number of products manufactured by the production system, or the value of the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system during the current shift from block 4 in binary code, through the control and signal input 65 of the control unit for fault signals 6, is fed to the input 6.2-1 of the control and signal decoder 6.2. The numerical value of the runtime of the shift task from block 4 in binary code through the control and information input 64 of the control unit for failure signals 6 is supplied to input 6.1-1 of the control and information decoder 6.1 (see figure 2).

The control and information decoder 6.1 of the control unit for failure signals 6 carries out control recognition of the status signal characterizing the time of the shift task. If the shift task is performed late, then from the output 6.1-2 of the control and information decoder 6.1, the control input signal is supplied to the information input 6.3-1 of the control counter, indicating a failure of the production or telecommunication system (failure to complete the shift task on time).

The control and signal decoder 6.2 of the failure signal control unit 6 implements control recognition of the status signal characterizing the number of products manufactured by the production system, or the number of services delivered to the telecommunication system subscriber during the current shift - when this number reaches the planned shift, output 6.2-2 of the control -signal decoder 6.2 to the signal input 6.3-4 of the control counter 6.3 serves a short-term control unit signal, indicating that with ennoe job is done (the system worked flawlessly and on time).

In the control counter 6.3 of the control unit for failure signals 6, the control signals of status signals are characterized, which are characterized by unambiguous (clear) and ambiguous (fuzzy) parameters obtained as a result of modeling a production or telecommunication process - the execution time of a shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production (number of services, provided by the telecommunication) system. These status signals in binary code from the information 6.3-5 and the signal 6.3-6 outputs of the control counter 6.3 respectively go to the information 6.4-1 and signal 6.4-2 inputs of the control analyzer 6.4 of the failure signal control unit 6, which compares the form of a particular status signal with the reference , on the basis of comparison, makes decisions about the logical and mathematical nature of the modeled parameters and generates the values of membership functions of fuzzy sets, characterizing the degree of membership of the analyzed state, infused ratio modeled parameters to a state space system uptime (replacement jobs for performing operative time) or to bounce space.

The control analyzer 6.4, based on a programmable TTL comparator of type 74LS85, compares the form of a particular status signal with a reference one, relying on the "image" of the reference state signal stored in the comparator memory, characterized by the ratio of uniquely (clearly) identifiable parameters of the system model. If the analyzed state signal coincides with the reference one, a decision is made that the previously generated analyzed state signal is identified unambiguously (clearly) on the primary 6.4-3 and secondary 6.4-4 outputs of the control analyzer 6.4 and on the corresponding primary 66 and secondary 67 outputs of the control unit failure signals 6 no signals. At the same time, the locking signal from the locking output 6.4-5 of the control analyzer 6.4 does not go through the locking output 61 of the failure signal control unit 6 to the locking input 97 of the failure signal comparison unit 9, allowing the comparison counter 9.1 to register and import unambiguously (clearly) identifiable parameters obtained in as a result of modeling a production or telecommunication process - the time taken to complete a shift task and the number of products manufactured by the production (the number of services provided telecommunication) system from its information 9.1-4 and signal 9.1-5 inputs to its respectively information 9.1-6 and signal 9.1-7 outputs

If the analyzed state signal does not coincide with the reference signal, the control analyzer 6.4 decides that the previously generated analyzed state signal is ambiguously identified (unreliable, unclear) and requires additional verification in the interests of mathematically correct conversion of the indistinctly identifiable parameters of the analyzed signal to a form that makes it possible parametric and unambiguous identification of the parameters of the system model, and, therefore, the possibility of increasing the ernosti results predict random events. In this case, based on the analysis of the ratio of ambiguously (fuzzy) identifiable parameters of the system model, the control analyzer 6.4 forms a binary code sequence containing information divided into two components - in accordance with the number of expert opinions (number of experts) on the degree to which a particular analyzed state signal belongs to space system uptime (performing shift tasks in operational time) or to the failure space. The signals on the primary 6.4-3 and secondary 6.4-4 outputs of the control analyzer 6.4, as well as, respectively, on the primary 66 and secondary 67 outputs of the control unit of the failure signals 6 correspond to the data from the first and second experts. From these outputs, information (a fuzzy code sequence) in binary code is supplied through the primary 74 and secondary 75 inputs of the failure signal conversion block 7 to the primary 7.1-4 and secondary 7.1-5 inputs of the conversion counter-calculator 7.1 and, respectively, to the input 7.2-1 of the primary storage element 7.2 and the main input 7.3-1 of the secondary storage element 7.3. In this case, the locking signal from the locking output 6.4-5 of the control analyzer 6.4 through the locking output 61 of the control unit of the failure signals 6 is fed to the locking input 97 of the comparison unit for the failure signals 9, blocking the comparative counter 9.1.

заданных в нечеткой форме (нечеткой кодовой последовательности) к виду, пригодному для параметрической и однозначной идентификации параметров модели системы, и, в конечном итоге, для достоверного прогнозирования случайных событий, а, с точки зрения математики - корректное вычисление интегрированного мнения экспертов о принадлежности либо не принадлежности конкретного анализируемого сигнала состояния к пространству отказов, осуществляется в соответствии с выражением (4) следующим образом.In the unit for converting fault signals 7 (Fig. 3), information (about) of the analyzed signal is transformed (converted), characterized by the ratio of the modeled parameters

given in fuzzy form (fuzzy code sequence) to a form suitable for parametric and unambiguous identification of the parameters of the system model, and, ultimately, for reliable prediction of random events, and, from the point of view of mathematics, the correct calculation of the integrated opinion of experts about whether or not belonging of a particular analyzed state signal to the failure space is carried out in accordance with expression (4) as follows.

Converting counter-calculator 7.1 implements the function of arithmetic subtraction from the unit of values of membership functions of fuzzy sets, in accordance with the algorithm described in [1, 2], for example, if

then

и

- дополнения нечеткие множеств

и

, сформулированных экспертами А и В по поводу степени принадлежности (значения функции принадлежности) конкретного анализируемого сигнала состояния к пространству сигналов отказов. Первичный 7.2 и вторичный 7.3 элементы хранения хранят нечеткую информацию от эксперта А и В и через свои выходы 7.2-2 и 7.3-2 в двоичном коде выдают значения функций принадлежности нечетких множеств на основной вход 7.4-1 первичного элемента преобразования 7.4 и на основной вход 7.5-1 вторичного элемента преобразования 7.5 соответственно. Каждый из первичного 7.4 и вторичного 7.5 элементов преобразования, получая в двоичном коде на свои вспомогательные входы 7.4-2 и 7.5-2 соответственно значения элементов дополнения нечетких множеств с первичного 7.1-6 и вторичного 7.1-7 выходов преобразующего счетчика-вычислителя 7.1, выполняет функцию пересечения, как описано в [1, 2]: первичный элемент преобразования 7.4 выполняет операцию

, а вторичный элемент преобразования 7.5 выполняет операцию

. С выхода 7.4-3 первичного элемента преобразования 7.4 через первичный выход 76 блока преобразования сигналов отказов 7 и с выхода 7.5-3 вторичного элемента преобразования 7.5 через вторичный выход 77 блока преобразования сигналов отказов 7 полученные значения в двоичном коде поступают соответственно через первичный вход 84 и вторичный вход 85 блока опознавания сигналов отказов 8 (фиг.4) на первичный 8.1-4 и вторичный 8.1-5 входы опознавательного счетчика-вычислителя 8.1, выполняющего завершающий цикл дизъюнктивного суммирования (объединение нечетких множеств) в соответствии с выражением (4).Where

and

- complements fuzzy sets

and

formulated by experts A and B regarding the degree of belonging (value of the membership function) of a particular analyzed state signal to the space of failure signals. Primary 7.2 and secondary 7.3 storage elements store fuzzy information from Expert A and B and, through their outputs 7.2-2 and 7.3-2, in binary code output the values of the membership functions of fuzzy sets to the main input 7.4-1 of the primary transform element 7.4 and to the main input 7.5 -1 of the secondary transform element 7.5, respectively. Each of the primary 7.4 and secondary 7.5 conversion elements, receiving in binary code to its auxiliary inputs 7.4-2 and 7.5-2, respectively, the values of the elements of the complement of fuzzy sets from the primary 7.1-6 and secondary 7.1-7 outputs of the conversion counter-calculator 7.1, performs the function intersections, as described in [1, 2]: the primary element of the transformation 7.4 performs the operation

, and the secondary transformation element 7.5 performs the operation

. From the output 7.4-3 of the primary conversion element 7.4 through the primary output 76 of the failure signal conversion unit 7 and from the output 7.5-3 of the secondary conversion element 7.5 through the secondary output 77 of the failure signal conversion unit 7, the obtained values in binary code are respectively transmitted through the primary input 84 and the secondary input 85 of the block of recognition of failure signals 8 (Fig. 4) to the primary 8.1-4 and secondary 8.1-5 inputs of the identification counter-calculator 8.1, which performs the final cycle of disjunctive summation (combining fuzzy properties) in accordance with expression (4).

функции принадлежности конкретного анализируемого сигнала состояния к пространству сигналов отказов в двоичном коде поступают на вход 8.2-1 опознавателя уровня сигналов отказов 8.2 и через вспомогательный выход 86 блока опознавания сигналов отказов 8, вспомогательный вход 71 блока преобразования сигналов отказов 7 - на вспомогательный вход 7.1-1 преобразующего счетчика-вычислителя 7.1 и вспомогательный вход 7.3-3 вторичного элемента хранения 7.3 (см. фиг.3). Опознаватель уровня сигналов отказов 8.2 осуществляет однозначный выбор (присвоение) количественных значений анализируемых нечетких параметров модели в соответствии с выражением (6). Являясь, по сути, программируемой схемой сравнения, в которой в двоичном коде сравниваются значения заранее введенного (запрограммированного) α-уровня нечетких множеств и полученные из опознавательного счетчика-вычислителя 8.1 верифицированные значения функции принадлежности конкретного анализируемого сигнала состояния к пространству сигналов отказов, опознаватель уровня сигналов отказов 8.2 путем сравнения порога (α-уровня) однозначно и окончательно определяет, принадлежит ли анализируемый сигнал состояния к пространству сигналов отказов. Если значение функции принадлежности (степень уверенности) интегрированного мнения экспертов

полученное с выхода опознавательного счетчика-вычислителя 8.1 для конкретного анализируемого сигнала состояния превышает α-уровень или равен ему, этот конкретный моделируемый сигнал является истинно отказом, т.е., однозначно указывает на принадлежность анализируемого сигнала состояния к пространству сигналов отказов и опознаватель уровня сигналов отказов 8.2 выдает на выходе 8.2-2 в двоичном коде значение 1 - "единица". Если α-уровень превышает значение функции принадлежности (степень уверенности) интегрированного мнения экспертов, опознаватель уровня сигналов отказов 8.2 выдает на выходе 8.2-2 в двоичном коде значение 0 - "нуль".From the output 8.1-1 of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 (see Fig. 4), the resulting total values (generalized opinion of experts on the value)

the membership function of the particular analyzed state signal to the space of fault signals in binary code is fed to input 8.2-1 of the fault signal level identifier 8.2 and through auxiliary output 86 of the fault signal recognition unit 8, auxiliary input 71 of the failure signal conversion unit 7 is fed to auxiliary input 7.1-1 converting counter-calculator 7.1 and auxiliary input 7.3-3 of the secondary storage element 7.3 (see figure 3). The identifier of the level of failure signals 8.2 makes an unambiguous selection (assignment) of quantitative values of the analyzed fuzzy model parameters in accordance with expression (6). Being, in fact, a programmable comparison scheme in which the binary code compares the values of a pre-entered (programmed) α-level of fuzzy sets and the verified values of the membership function of a particular analyzed state signal to the space of fault signals obtained from the identification counter-calculator 8.1, the signal level identifier 8.2 failures by comparing the threshold (α-level) unambiguously and definitively determines whether the analyzed state signal belongs to the signal space about Tkaz. If the value of the membership function (degree of confidence) of the integrated expert opinion

received from the output of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 for a particular analyzed state signal exceeds the α level or equal to it, this particular simulated signal is a true failure, i.e., it unambiguously indicates that the analyzed state signal belongs to the space of fault signals and the identifier of the level of fault signals 8.2 gives the output 1-2 in binary code value 1 - "unit". If the α-level exceeds the value of the membership function (degree of confidence) of the integrated expert opinion, the fault level identifier 8.2 gives output 8.2–2 in binary code the value 0 - “zero”.

The transmission of information to the auxiliary input 7.1-1 of the converting counter-calculator 7.1 and the auxiliary input 7.3-3 of the secondary storage element 7.3 of the failure signal conversion unit 7 is intended for the case when the number of experts is more than two. In this case, the complement of the fuzzy set received from the output 8.1-1 of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 is determined in the conversion counter-calculator 7.1 and the values obtained from the output 8.1-1 of the identification counter-calculator 8.1 are overwritten into the secondary storage element 7.3, playing the role of information from the first expert . Information from a new (for example, third) expert is recorded via input 7.2-1 in the primary storage element 7.2, and the cycle of calculations is repeated again.

From the output 8.2-2 of the failure signal level identifier 8.2 (Fig. 4), the obtained quantitative values (zero or one signals) in binary code via the identification output 81 of the failure signal recognition unit 8 are received through the identification input 98 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 to the identification inputs 9.2-2 and 9.3-2 of the failing 9.2 and 9.3 actuating elements AND, respectively (see Fig. 5). In combination with a pre-generated analyzed state signal, the values of the parameters of which (t _vsz , χ _{and (y)} ) from the information 9.1-6 and signal 9.1-7 of the outputs of the comparative counter 9.1 are received respectively at the main inputs 9.2-1 and 9.3-1 of the failed 9.2 and actuator 9.3 elements AND, the identification signal (signal "zero" or "one") from the fault recognition unit 8 is for failover 9.2 and actuator 9.3 elements And, in fact, a command indicating that either a particular simulated signal is true renouncement ohm (signal 1 is “one”), it is unambiguously verified as a system failure and can be sent in that quality to registration unit 5, or the simulated signal is not recognized as a failure (signal 0 is “zero”), the system is uniquely identified at this stage as working faultlessly.

но математически корректно трансформированные (преобразованные) к виду, пригодному для параметрической, однозначной и достоверной идентификации параметров модели системы.Thus, at the outputs 9.2-3 and 9.3-3 of the failing 9.2 and executive 9.3 elements of And and at the corresponding information 94 and signal 95 outputs of the unit for comparing failure signals 9 we have, respectively, failure signals (t _vs ) and signals about the completion of shift tasks (χ _{and (y)} ), received either as initially uniquely (clearly) identifiable signals (at the blocking input 97 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 there is no blocking signal), or as initially ambiguously (fuzzy) identifiable signals

but mathematically correctly transformed (transformed) to a form suitable for parametric, unambiguous and reliable identification of the parameters of the system model.

Reliable signals about the completion of shift tasks from the output 9.3-3 of the actuator And 9.3 through the signal output 95 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 are sent to the signal input 55 of the registration block 5 (Fig. 12) and are recorded by the secondary counter 5.6, which records the volume (in shift tasks ) manufactured products or telecommunications services provided. Reliable failure signals come from the output 9.2-3 of the failure element And through the information output 94 of the failure signal comparison unit 9 to the information input 54 of the registration unit 5. On the leading edge of each such signal, the one-shot 5.14 generates a short pulse, which is recorded by the quadruple counter 5.9, which records the quantity bounce. In addition, this pulse is recorded by one of the counters 5.8 ₁ -5.8 _K , designed to obtain a histogram of the mean time between failures of the system. The failure signal from the information input 54 of the registration unit 5 is fed through the OR element 5.4 to the reset input 5.5-2 of the primary counter 5.5, input 5.3-2 of the frequency divider 5.3 and resets them to zero. After the end of the fault signal, the primary counter 5.5 begins to count the pulses coming from the output 5.3-3 of the frequency divider 5.3. The division factor of the frequency divider 5.3 sets the value of the intervals of the histogram. The tertiary counter 5.7, on the input 5.7-2 of which clock pulses are received, fixes the operating time of a production or telecommunication system.

Statistical data to obtain reliable numerical values of the reliability and quality indicators of the production or telecommunication system are accumulated in the counters of the registration unit 5 after one implementation of the system functioning process. Such an implementation can be completed automatically or upon reaching a predetermined volume of products (a predetermined volume provided to subscribers of telecommunication services) - 10 ² -10 ³ shift tasks (output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected with a switch 5.15 to the output 5.11-2 of the secondary decoder 5.11), or after a predetermined simulation time (the output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected with a switch 5.15 to the output 5.12-2 of the tertiary decoder 5.12), or when the specified number of kazov production or telecommunications system (output 51 of the registration unit 5 is connected using a switch 5.15 to the output 5.13-2 quadruple decoder 5.13). Implementation can also be completed by removing the “Work” signal by switch 1.3 of control unit 1. Automatic simulation termination occurs when a zero signal appears at the output 51 of the registration unit 5. This signal is fed to input 11 of the control unit 1 and prohibits the issuance of clock pulses providing the operation of the entire device.

The statistics accumulated in the counters of the registration unit 5 make it possible to predict random events, and they allow one to determine relatively reliable numerical values of the quality of functioning of a production or telecommunication system, including the likelihood of failure to fulfill shift tasks for the release of products or the provision of telecommunication services (ratio of the contents of the quad counter 5.9 to the contents secondary counter 5.6), production or telecommunication performance constant system (secondary counter readings divided into 5.6 meter readings tertiary 5.7 based simulation scale) production of use empirical distribution or telecommunication system failure (for meter readings 5.8 ₁ -5.8 _K), and other indicators.

Thus, it is obvious that the claimed device, due to preliminary identification in block 6 of ambiguously (fuzzy) identifiable parameters of the modeled signals and computational conversion in blocks 7-9 of these parameters using mathematical methods of the theory of fuzzy sets to a form that allows you to uniquely (clearly) identify and interpret their numerical values, allows to increase the reliability of the data necessary for an unambiguous assessment of the numerical values of the indicators of reliability and quality of functions The system’s orientation is already at the stage of development and design of production or telecommunication systems that have an irreplaceable time reserve and a cyclical functioning process, in which each phase of a multiphase technological or telecommunication process is implemented by a separate section of the system using a combination of separate elements (communication units, various stations, transmitters, machines , means of transportation, etc.) operating in a cyclic mode.

An analysis of the principle of operation of the claimed device for predicting random events shows the evidence of the fact that, along with the capabilities to improve performance when stored and described in the prototype when evaluating the reliability indicators of complex production and telecommunication systems with a cyclic nature of work and temporary redundancy, the device is able to identify with high reliability the ratio of the key parameters of the simulated process of functioning of the system - runtime change task and the number of products manufactured by the production system (or the number of services delivered to the subscriber of the telecommunication system) under the conditions inherent in the real process of functioning of the production or telecommunication system with an unreplenished time reserve - when the initial data for modeling and, as a result, the results of forecasting random events, determining the numerical values of the indicators of reliability and quality of functioning of such complex systems can have as many venno and qualitatively (ambiguous, vague, with the assistance of the linguistic variable) pronounced physical sense.

This device provides increased reliability of the identification of the state of a production or telecommunication system under conditions of ambiguity (ambiguity) of the parameters of the modeled signals characterizing the belonging of a particular state signal to the state space of the failure-free operation of the system (performing shift tasks in operational time) or to the space of failures, which significantly expands the scope devices, expands the functionality of reliability and quality assessment systems the functioning of complex automated and flexible production and telecommunication systems of arbitrary structure, where the claimed device for predicting random events will be used.

Information sources

1. Fuzzy sets and the theory of possibilities. Recent achievements: Per. from English / Ed. Yager P.P. - M .: Radio and communications, 1986, - 408 p .;

2. Kofman A. Introduction to the theory of fuzzy sets: Per. with french - M .: Radio and communications, 1982, - 432 p .;

3. Voronov M.V. Fuzzy sets in models of organizational management systems. - L .: VMA, 1988, - 54 p .;

4. Parashchuk I. B., Bobrik I. P. Fuzzy sets in the analysis of communication networks. - SPb .: VUS, 2001. - 80 p.

5. Martynov V.I. The mathematical foundations of managing primary communication networks using fuzzy parameters. - M .: "Elf-M", 1997, - 48 p.

Claims (6)

1. A device for predicting random events, comprising a control unit, a system model block, a block of state simulators of system sections, a failure signal generation unit and a registration unit whose output is connected to the control unit input, the control input of the failure signal generation unit is connected to the control output of the model unit the system, the output of the control unit is connected to the discharge inputs of the unit of state simulators of system sections, the system model unit, the failure signal generation unit and the regis unit radios, M≥2 control outputs of the control unit are connected to the corresponding M control inputs of the system model unit, the synchronizing output of the control unit is connected to the synchronizing inputs of the unit of state simulators of system sections, the system model unit, the failure signal generation unit and the registration unit, the control output of the control unit is connected with the control input of the block of state simulators of system sections, N≥2 group inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the system model block, N group the first inputs of which are connected to the corresponding N group outputs of the block of state simulators of system sections, characterized in that a failure signal monitoring unit, a failure signal conversion unit, a failure signal recognition unit and a failure signal comparison unit are additionally introduced, moreover, the reset and synchronization inputs of the failure signal monitoring unit , the failure signal conversion unit, the failure signal recognition unit and the failure signal comparison unit are connected respectively to the fault and synchronization to the control unit outputs, the information and signal outputs of the failure signal comparison unit are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the registration unit, the information and signal outputs of the failure signal generation unit are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the failure signal comparison unit, the locking input of which is connected to the locking output a failure signal control unit, the primary and secondary outputs of which are connected respectively to the primary and secondary input failure signal conversion unit, the primary and secondary outputs of the failure signal conversion unit are connected respectively to the primary and secondary inputs of the failure signal recognition unit, the identification output of which is connected to the identification input of the failure signal comparison unit, the auxiliary output of the failure signal recognition unit is connected to the auxiliary input of the conversion unit fault signals, control-information and control-signal inputs of the control block of fault signals are connected respectively, with additional control and information and additional control and signal outputs of the unit for generating failure signals. 2. The device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the failure signal monitoring unit consists of a control-information and control-signal decoders, a control counter and a control analyzer, and the inputs of the control-information and control-signal decoders are respectively control -information and control-signal inputs of the unit, the outputs of the control-information and control-signal decoders are connected respectively to the information and signal the input of the control counter, the reset and synchronizing inputs of which are respectively the reset and synchronizing inputs of the unit, the information and signal outputs of the control counter are connected respectively to the information and signal inputs of the control analyzer, the locking output of which is the blocking output of the block, the primary and secondary outputs of the control analyzer are respectively primary and secondary outputs of the failure signal monitoring unit. 3. The device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the failure signal conversion unit consists of a converting counter-calculator, primary and secondary storage elements, primary and secondary conversion elements, the primary and secondary inputs of the transforming calculator are connected respectively to the input of the primary and main input of the secondary storage elements and are respectively the primary and secondary inputs of the block, the outputs of the primary and secondary storage elements I am connected respectively to the main inputs of the primary and secondary conversion elements, the outputs of which are respectively the primary and secondary outputs of the block, the auxiliary input of the secondary storage element is connected to the auxiliary input of the conversion counter-calculator and is an auxiliary input of the block, auxiliary inputs of the primary and secondary conversion elements are connected respectively to the primary and secondary outputs of the converting counter-calculator, reset and synchronizing the inputs of which are respectively the fault and clock inputs of the failure signal conversion unit. 4. The device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the failure signal recognition unit consists of an identification counter-calculator and a failure signal level identifier, wherein the output of the failure signal level identifier is the identification output of the block, the output of the identification counter-calculator is connected to the input of the identifier of the level of fault signals and is the auxiliary output of the block, the primary and secondary inputs of the identification counter-calculator are respectively primary and a secondary unit inputs, clock inputs and effluent counter-marking of the calculator are respectively the blowdown and the synchronization unit inputs the identification signal bounce. 5. The device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the unit for comparing failure signals consists of a comparator counter, a failure and an actuating element And, wherein the identification input of the actuating element And is connected to the identification input of the failure element And is the identification input of the block, the information and signal outputs of the comparator counter are connected respectively to the main inputs of the failed and actuating elements AND, the outputs of which are respectively information m and the signal outputs of the block, the locking input of the comparison counter is the blocking input of the block, the information and signal inputs of the comparison counter are respectively the information and signal inputs of the block, the reset and synchronizing inputs of the comparison counter are respectively the reset and synchronizing inputs of the block for comparing failure signals. 6. The device for predicting random events according to claim 1, characterized in that the failure signal generation unit consists of an OR element, a primary and secondary counters, a primary and secondary decoders, the reset input of an OR element being a dump input of the block, the counting inputs of the primary and secondary counters are respectively the synchronizing and control inputs of the block, the output of the additional decoder is connected to the signal input of the OR element and is the signal output of the block, the output of the This OR is connected to the dump inputs of the primary and secondary meters, the outputs of which are connected respectively to the inputs of the primary and secondary decoders and are respectively the additional control and information and additional control and signal outputs of the unit, the output of the main decoder is the information output of the failure signal generation unit.

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