RU2409932C1 - Method of forecasting safflower oil cypselas yield - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: agriculture.

SUBSTANCE: method involves optimisation of calathidium harvesting terms and calculation definition of safflower cypselas at the calathidium formation stage. During the calathidium formation phase one establishes the number of stalks and primary branches per 1 m² of area within control plots in 5-fold replication. One measures safflower plant length, length of primary branches, safflower stalk root part diametre, diametre of primary branch at the stalk, number of calathidia per primary branch. Relying on the cultivar description one establishes the number of cypselas per calathidium and the weight of 1000 establishes, with forecast safflower cypsela yield calculated from the expression

EFFECT: enhanced reliability of forecasting the amount of green mass and seed productivity of dyer's-saffron prospective cultivars.

2 tbl, 2 ex

Description

The invention relates to agriculture and can be used to assess the yield of new varieties and varieties of oilseeds, including safflower dyeing, when cultivated in other soil and climatic conditions, both in rainfed and in irrigated agriculture.

A known method for the early diagnosis of the potential productivity of cultivar combinations of fruit crops, including determining during the period of active growth of annual cultivar combinations of fruit crops a physiological and biochemical indicator, the value of which is used to judge the potential productivity of the combination, in which, in order to improve the reliability of diagnosis, plants are grown in controlled conditions, as a physiological and biochemical indicator determine the content of free proline in the leaves s, and plants are considered potentially productive if the content of proline does not exceed 20-25 mg /% dry matter (SU, copyright certificate No. 1470239 A1, M. Cl ^4. A01G 7/00, A01G 17/00. Early diagnosis method potential productivity of variety-rootstock combinations of fruit crops / T.N. Doroshenko, Yu.S. Pospelova (USSR) - Application No. 4302160 / 30-13. Announced 08/31/1987. Publish. 07.04.1989. Bull. No. 13 // Discovery. Inventions. - 1989. - No. 13).

The results of many years of research have established that for a wide range of varieties of oilseeds and legumes, the content of free proline not only in the leaves, but also in the stems, branches of the 1st order, inflorescences, and beans is insignificant. Thus, the described method is unacceptable for assessing the potential productivity of oilseeds when cultivated in other soil and climatic conditions.

There is also known a method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants, including sampling leaves, measuring biophysical indicators characterizing the combination of two phytosystems, and assessing potential productivity by the value of the measured parameters, in which, in order to increase the reliability of the method, sampling is carried out at an intensity of 10-40 W / m ² , immediately after sampling, immersed in liquid nitrogen, the measurement of the biophysical indicator is carried out at liquid nitrogen temperature and light intensities of 300-2500 W / m ² , the spectrum of electron paramagnetic resonance is analyzed as a biophysical indicator, the amplitudes A ₁ and A _{2 of the} signals are measured with a g-factor of 2.006 A ₁ and 2.015 A ₂ , respectively, the coefficient K is calculated by the formula

K = 2.75 A ₂ / A ₁ ,

at the same time, the potential productivity of plants this year is estimated by K, and if they coincide within the species - by the value of A ₁ , and the higher values of K and A ₁ correspond to more potentially productive agricultural plants (SU, copyright certificate No. 1505472 A1, M. Cl ⁴ A01G 7/00, A01H 1/04 A method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants / A.Yu. Borisov, N. M. Vandysheva, M. G. Gold-feld and others (USSR) - Application No. 4343664/30 -15. Claimed 12/15/1987. Publish. 09/07/1989. Bull. No. 33 // Discovery. Inventions. - 1989. - No. 33).

The disadvantages of the described method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants, including oilseed production includes obtaining indirect indicators that do not affect the seed productivity of the test plants.

A known method for determining the term for sowing legumes on seeds in the mountains, including measuring the sum of the temperatures and amount of precipitation and calculating the hydrothermal coefficient according to the formula, in which, in order to increase seed productivity, the sum of the temperatures and amount of precipitation is measured when predicting air + 10 ° C, and the sowing period is set by a hydrothermal coefficient in the range of 4 to 8 (RU, patent No. 20144768 C1, M. Cl ^3. A01C 7/00. A method for determining the timing of sowing legumes on seeds in the mountains / S.A. Bekuzarova, K. Kh. Besov, B.K. Mamsurov (RU. Application No. 4753139/15. Announced on 10/25/1989. Published on 06/30/1994).

One of the legumes, soybeans, belongs to the Fabaceae family, just like all legumes. In the conditions of the Lower Volga region, the hydrothermal coefficient (SCC) of G.T.Selyaninov varies from 0.25 to 1.15. According to this indicator, it is impossible to establish the time for sowing seeds, for example, chickpeas or soybeans, into the soil, and especially the expected grain yield of the varieties of chickpeas, soybeans, and beans cultivated earlier in conditions where the SCC varies from 4 to 8.

A known method for predicting the yield of winter wheat, which consists in determining the average daily temperature in May and depending on the applied doses of fertilizers predict yield by mathematical dependence

y = 75.6-3.14x + 12.52d

where y is the yield of winter wheat, t / ha;

x - average daily air temperature in May, ° C;

d - dose of mineral fertilizers from 0 to 1 (0 - without fertilizers,

1 - N ₁₂₀ P _l20 K ₆₀ )

(RU, patent No. 2158498 C2, IPC ⁷ A01G 7/00. A method for predicting the yield of winter wheat / P.G. Akulov, M.N. Ponedelchenko, I.N.Sokoreva, N.S. Sokorev (RU). - Application No. 98121715/13. Declared November 30, 1998. Publ. November 10, 2000).

The disadvantages of the described method in relation to assessing the potential productivity of beans, chickpeas, soybeans for grain cultivation in irrigated agriculture include low accuracy of the forecast data. So, the average air temperature in May was 15.1 ° С according to the data of the weather station of Volgograd for 1997-2000, and the average long-term temperature was 16.4 ° С. Having accepted the condition that the regime of mineral nutrition of plants, for example, soybeans, nitrogen, potash and phosphorus fertilizers during the growing season is provided, i.e. d = 1, when substituting the indicated data, we have:

y = 75.6-3.14 · 16.4 ° + 12.52 · 1 = 36.624 t / ha = 3.6624 t / ha

and at d = 0, y = 75.6-3.14 · 16.4 = 24.104 t / ha = 2.4104 t / ha.

However, the above expression y = 75.6-3.14x + 12.52d does not take into account the moisture supply of soy plants. In the absence of macro-fertilizers in the soil, soybean plants of any varieties will not provide a grain yield of 2.410 t / ha.

In addition to the described methods, a method for predicting barley yield is known, which consists in determining the average daily air temperature in May and depending on the applied doses of fertilizers, barley yield is predicted by mathematical dependence

y = 51.41-2.13 x + 10.3 d

where y is the barley yield, kg / ha;

x - average daily air temperature in April-May, ° C;

d - dose of mineral fertilizers from 0 to 1

(0 - without fertilizers, 1 - N ₁₂₀ P ₁₂₀ K ₆₀ )

(RU, patent No. 2158500 C2, IPC ⁷ A01G 7/00. Method for predicting the yield of barley / P.G. Akulov, M.N. Ponedelchenko, I.N.Sokoreva, N.S. Sokorev (RU). - Application No. 98121739/13. Declared November 30, 1998. Publish. November 10, 2000).

The disadvantages of the described forecasting method in relation to the assessment of grain yield, for example safflower dyeing promising varieties, is that the proposed expression does not take into account a number of significant factors affecting the quality and size of the crop. Using the previously given numerical data for May (x = 16.5 ° C), because due to the biology of plants, for example, soybeans, they are not sown in April and, taking the values d = 1 and d = 0, we have:

y ₁ = 51.41-2.13 · 16.4 + 10.3 · 1 = 26.776 t / ha = 2.667 t / ha;

Y ₂ = 51.41-2.13 · 16.4 + 10.3 · 0 = 16.642 kg / ha = 1.664 t / ha.

The indicated interval of soybean grain yield is unrealistic, and the numerical data themselves do not provide a reliable forecast for the tested soybean variety.

A known method of controlling the production processes of agricultural plants during the cultivation of winter crops in arid climates, including optimizing the timing, sowing rates and methods of sowing, setting the sum of average daily temperatures in the range of 550-650 ° C for 45-60 days from the time of sowing to the end of the growing season, the formation of tillering by plants in each node of three or four stems with a sufficient supply of sugars for plant resistance to subzero temperatures in the range of -18 ... -20 ° C in snowless periods and established determination of seeding rates to form the density of the stems standing 500-600 pcs / m ² on chernozem soils and 300-450 pcs / m ² on chestnut soils, calculation of hydrothermal coefficient taking into account precipitation for a period with a temperature above + 10 ° С and the sum of positive temperatures for the same period, sowing in a ten-day period with soil temperature regime from +18 to + 12 ° С, in which the planned productivity of winter crops is determined by the formula

y = a · S · Gc + b,

where y is the grain yield, t / ha;

a - coefficient taking into account the seeding rate;

b - coefficient taking into account the soil and climatic conditions of the zone;

S - the actual amount of positive temperatures from sowing to the termination of the growing season, ° C;

Gc is the hydrothermal coefficient, mm / ° С, while at Gc less than 0.5 the seed sowing rate is reduced by 10-15% of the optimal zonal values, with Gc in the range from 0.5 to 0.9, the sowing rate is maintained, with Gc greater than 0.9, the seeding rate is increased by 20-25%, and with increasing seeding rates, the row spacing from 22.5 cm is reduced to 7.5 cm (RU, patent No. 2228607 C1, IPC ⁷ A01G 7/00. Method of controlling production processes for the cultivation of winter crops in an arid climate / A.F. Rogachev, AMSaldaev, D.A. Rogachev - Application No. 2002126981/12. It is claimed 09.10.2002. Publish. 05.20.2004. Bull. No. 14 // From acquisitions. Utility models. - 2004. - No. 14).

The described method of managing production processes deserves attention in the sense that the proposed expression takes into account the seed sowing rate, the indirect soil and climatic conditions of the cultivation zone, the actual sum of the positive temperatures from sowing to the termination of the growing season, and SCC values. However, the proposed method only adjusts the seeding rate to obtain a guaranteed crop.

A known method for predicting the yield of winter cereal crops under cultivation in a sharply continental climate, including the establishment of timing, seeding rates and methods of sowing, determining positive sums of average daily temperatures in the range of 550-650 ° C during the period from sowing to termination of vegetation, the formation of plants in each a tillering node of three to four stems with a sufficient supply of sugars to increase the resistance of plants to negative temperatures in the range from -18 ... -20 ° C and the calculation of the hydrothermal value a coefficient in which, with a hydrothermal coefficient of up to 0.5, the seed sowing rate is reduced by 10-15% of the optimal values in crops with a row spacing of 0.225 m; when the coefficient value is more than 0.9, the seeding rate is increased by 20-25% on crops with a row spacing of 0.075 m, with coefficient values ranging from 0.5 to 0.9, the seeding rate is kept on crops with a row spacing of 0.15 m, and the predicted yield is determined from the expression

y = k ₁ · a · (1 / x) ² + k ₂ - (1 / x) + k ₃ / s,

where y is the expected yield, kg / ha;

a - seeding rate, pcs./ha;

b - the sum of the positive temperatures from the date of sowing to stable negative temperatures, ° C;

с - row spacing, m;

x - the duration of sowing in days from the recommended dates, days;

k ₁ = (0.6-0.8) · 10 ^-3 - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the varietal quality of each seed in the accumulation of grain mass, (kg-day ² ) / piece;

k ₂ = (0.0512-0.0934) · 10 ^-4 - the coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the influence of temperature on the formation of the root system of plants, kg · day / ° C · m ² ;

k ₃ = (0.00007-0.00015) · 10 ^-4 - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the placement of plants on the field surface, kg / m (RU, patent No. 2248690 C2, IPC ⁷ A01G 7/00. A method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants, mainly cereal crops, when cultivated in a sharply continental climate / A.S. Sarafanov, V.V. Borodychev, A.M.Saldaev, A.V. Mayer, V.N. Krivko.- Application No. 2003107065/12. .2003. Published March 27, 2005. Bull. No. 9 // Inventions. Utility models. - 2005. - No. 9).

The disadvantages of the described method, in relation to the problem we are solving, are that it is desirable to know the predicted yield by the oilseed flowering period, and not at the end of the growing season. At the end of the “bean filling and seed ripening” phase, the actual yield of safflower dye seeds can be determined.

There is a method of evaluating the potential productivity of winter cereal crops, including optimizing the timing, sowing rates and methods of sowing, setting the sum of average daily temperatures in the range of 550-650 ° C for 45-60 days from the time of sowing to the termination of the growing season, the formation of tillering at each node three or four stem with sufficient sugars for plant resistance to freezing temperatures in the range -18 ... -20 ° C in a snow-free periods, and establishing standards for seed formation density of 500-600 stems pcs. / m ² chernoz soils and 300-450 pcs / m on chestnut soils, the calculation of the hydrothermal coefficient taking into account precipitation for a period with a temperature above + 10 ° C and the sum of positive temperatures for the same period, sowing in a ten-day period with a temperature regime from +18 to + 12 ° C and the calculation of the planned productivity of winter crops, in which the planned productivity is determined from the dependence y = k ₁ ax ₂ + k ₂ ∑t ГТКbр ₀ х ^-1 + k ₃ bc ^-1 ,

where y is the potential productivity of winter ears of crops, t / ha;

k ₁ = (1.5-3.0) · 10 ^-6 - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the varietal qualities of each seed in the accumulation of grain mass, t · day ² / piece;

a - seeding rate, pieces of germinating seeds per 1 ha;

x - sowing time in days from the beginning of the recommended period for the zone, days;

k ₂ = (0.8-1.3) · 10 ^-3 - the coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the influence of the temperature regime on the formation of the root system of plants from sowing to care in suspended animation, t · day / mm · ha;

∑t is the actual sum of positive temperatures from sowing to the termination of the growing season, ° C;

GTK - hydrothermal coefficient, mm / ° C;

b = (0.6-2.5) - dimensionless coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the soil and climatic conditions of the zone;

p ₀ - reserves of available moisture in the habitable horizon, mm;

k ₃ = (0.04-0.08) - the coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the placement of plants on the surface of the field, t · m / ha;

s - row spacing, m

(RU, patent No. 2267909 C1, IPC A01G 7/00 (2006.01). A method for assessing the potential productivity of winter cereal crops / V.P. Zvolinsky, N.V. Tyutyuma, L.V. Bogosoryanskaya, AM Saldaev. - Application No. 2004119679/12. Declared June 28, 2004. Published on January 20, 2006. Bull. No. 02 // Inventions. Utility models. - 2006. - No. 2).

The described method for assessing potential productivity takes into account most of the factors affecting yield. The proposed formula is valid for crops with a long growing season and is not acceptable for evaluating, for example, ultra-mature soybean varieties with a growing season of 100-120 days.

A known method for predicting the yield of winter crops during cultivation in an arid climate, including setting the timing, seeding rate, methods of sowing, calculating the value of the hydrothermal coefficient and making a forecast for the mathematical dependence, in which the predicted yield for the next year is established from the expression

Y = k ₁ AGs (1 / x ² ) + k ₂ B / x + k ₃ c / Gs,

where Y is the expected yield, kg / ha;

A - seeding rate, units / ha;

In - the sum of the positive temperatures from the date of sowing to stable negative temperatures, ° C;

с - row spacing, m;

x - the duration of sowing in days from the beginning of the recommended dates, days;

k ₁ = (0.6-0.8) · 10 ^-3 - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the varietal qualities of each seed in the accumulation of grain mass, kg · day ² / piece;

k ₂ = (0.512-0.934) - coefficient of proportionality, taking into account the influence of temperature on the formation of the root system of plants, kg · day / ° C · m ² ;

k ₃ = (7-150) - proportionality coefficient, taking into account the placement of plants on the field surface, kg / m;

Gs - hydrothermal coefficient of G.T.Selyaninov (RU, patent No. 2271096 C1, IPC A01G 7/00 (2006.01). A method for predicting the yield of winter crops in an arid climate / A.F. Rogachev, AMSaldaev. - Application No. 2004123690 / 12. Declared 2.08.2004. Publish. 10.03.2006. Bull. No. 7 // Inventions. Utility models. - 2006. - No. 7).

Safflower plants are a short daylight crop with a short growing season. When cultivated under conditions of rain-fed agriculture and a sufficient supply of nutrients, the productivity of the grain of safflower dyeing is primarily influenced by climatic conditions.

A known method for predicting the yield of alfalfa seeds when cultivated in irrigated agriculture, including deep plowing with phosphorus-potassium fertilizers and soil herbicides, spring harrowing, sowing the culture with the wide-row method and irrigation in the budding phase with a one-time moistening of the soil to 90-100% lowest moisture up to 1.3-1.5 m with a norm of 1360-1500 m ³ / ha, and after flowering in the soil layer 0-55 cm, the moisture decreases to 50-55%, in the layer 51-100 cm - up to 70-75%, in a layer of 100-150 cm - up to 75-80% of the lowest moisture capacity, in which the average daily soil temperature in the last decade of April and the first decade of May, and the predicted seed yield in the second year of plant life is determined from the expression:

y = k ₁ xt + (k ₂ A + k ₃ · d + k ₄ P) / Gs,

where y is the predicted yield of alfalfa seeds in the second year of plant life, kg / ha;

xt is the average soil temperature in the last decade of April-first decade of May, ° С;

A - seeding rate, pieces / ha;

d - the amount of fertilizer NPK, kg AI / ha;

P - irrigation rate for the growing season, m ³ / ha;

k ₁ - coefficient taking into account the varietal qualities of each alfalfa seed in the formation and accumulation of grain mass, kg / (° C * ha);

k ₂ - coefficient taking into account the influence of temperature on the formation of the root system of plants in the first year of life, kg / (units * ha);

k ₃ - coefficient taking into account the reserves of mineral nutrition from the predecessor in the root-inhabited layer, kg / (a.d.kg / ha);

k ₄ - coefficient taking into account the share of natural precipitation in the formation of the grain yield, kg / (mm * ha);

Gs is the hydrothermal coefficient of T.G. Selyaninov, according to precipitation and the sum of temperatures above + 10 ° C during the life of plants from the beginning to the moment of termination of vegetation (RU Patent No. 2271651 C1, IPC A01G 7/00 (2006.01). Method for predicting the yield of alfalfa seeds in irrigated agriculture / AF Rogachev, AM Saldaev - Application No. 2004125485/12. Announced August 19, 2004. Publish. March 20, 2006. Bull. No. 8 // Inventions. Utility models. - 2006. - No. 8).

The described method is acceptable for predicting the yield of legumes, in particular alfalfa seeds when cultivated under irrigation conditions. However, this method does not take into account the characteristics of the culture of safflower dyeing when cultivated in irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture.

There is a method of assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants, mainly collection varieties of spring cereal crops, when cultivated in a sharply continental climate, including optimizing the timing, seeding rates and methods of sowing, establishing the sum of average daily temperatures from the moment of sowing to the termination of vegetation, setting seeding rates for the formation densities of standing stems, calculation of hydrothermal coefficient for the period “sowing - harvesting” and determination by calculation is planned productivity, in which a standard (zoned) mid-ripening variety, for example, spring wheat Albidum 28, is sown in advance, the optimal seed sowing rate is established, the actual sum of positive temperatures from sowing to the moment of grain formation, the hydrothermal coefficient, and the potential yield of collection variety samples are determined by the formula

,

,

where y is the grain yield, t / ha;

a - coefficient taking into account deviations of the seeding rate in comparison with the standard;

s is the actual sum of positive temperatures from sowing to loading grain of a standard sample, ° C;

Gs - hydrothermal coefficient of standard cultivation conditions, mm / ° С;

Gc.o. - hydrothermal coefficient of conditions for the growth of variety samples before introduction, mm / ° С;

b - coefficient taking into account soil and climatic conditions;

with - coefficient taking into account the reserves of productive moisture of the soil during the period of “seedlings - the formation of grain” (RU, patent No. 2294091 C1, IPC A01G 7/00 (2006.01). A method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants, mainly collection varieties of spring grain crops, when cultivation in conditions of sharply continental climate / N.V. Tyutyuma, V.P. Zvolinsky, AMSaldaev - Application No. 2005122736/12. Declared July 18, 2005. Publish. February 27, 2007. Bull. No. 6 // Inventions. Utility models . - 2007. - No. 6).

The described method for assessing the potential productivity of agricultural plants does not provide reliability of the results of predicting the seed productivity of a wide range of oil bean crops.

A known method of cultivating safflower, including sowing safflower seeds in saline soil, in which as saline soil use soil containing from 50 to 60 wt.% Saline solonetzic and from 20 to 30 wt.% Saline light chestnut soils, the rest is meadow chestnut soils, while sowing, from 18 to 20 kg of seeds are sown per 1 ha with seed placement with a row spacing of not more than 0.3 m (RU, patent No. 2111185 C1, IPC ⁶ A01B 79/02. Method for cultivating safflower / B. Y. Dushkov, S. G. Chekalin. - Application No. 99106467/13. Declared April 2, 1999. Publish. November 20, 1999).

A known method for predicting interannual fluctuations in winter wheat productivity, in which they monitor the yield of grain crops in two induced regions associated with stable climatic relations with the forecast region for at least 30 years preceding the forecast year, and according to

where y _i ; x _i - yield of winter wheat in inducing regions in the first previous forecasted year;

max y, max x - the maximum yield of winter wheat in the corresponding indicating region;

a, b - empirical coefficients characterizing the relationship of fluctuations in the natural conditions of the forecasted region with the indicating (temperature, precipitation, hydrothermal indicators, etc.)

a [0.2-0.4], b [0.3-0.8],

predict a rise or fall in productivity if, respectively, sign (Δ) = 1 or sign (Δ) = - 1

(RU, Application No. 2005114095 A, IPC A01G 7/00 (2006/01) A method for predicting interannual fluctuations in winter wheat productivity / IB Zagaytov (RU), L.P. Yanovsky. - Claimed 11.05.2005. Publ. 20.11 .2006 // Inventions. Utility models. - 2006 - No. 32).

The disadvantages of the described method in relation to the problem we are solving - forecasting the yield of green mass and oil seeds of safflower dyeing after seedling - the impossibility of predicting the yield of green mass of safflower and oil seeds due to lack of data on the main factors.

We have accepted this method as the closest analogue.

The essence of the claimed invention is as follows.

The problem to which the claimed invention is directed is predicting the seed productivity of safflower dyeing during introduction in the southeast of the European part of the Russian Federation.

EFFECT: increased reliability of the results of forecasting green mass of seed productivity of promising varieties of safflower dyeing.

The specified technical result is achieved by the fact that in the known method for predicting the yield of safflower oil seeds, including optimizing the time for cleaning the baskets and determining the gene pool of safflower seeds at the stage of forming the baskets, according to the invention, the number of stems per square meter is set to five times in the phase of forming baskets on control plots in an area of 1 m ² and the first-order branches measured safflower plant height, length of the branches of the first order, safflower stem diameter at the butt portion, diameter p at the first order branch of the stem, the number of baskets in the one branch of the first order, based on the amount of strain testing set achenes in one basket and the weight of 1000 seeds and safflower achenes predicted yield is calculated by the formula

,

,

where Q is the predicted yield of the gene pool of safflower seeds at the stage of basket formation, kg / ha;

n is the average number of plants in five control plots in the phase of the formation of baskets, units / m ² ;

b - the number of branches of the first order on one stalk, pieces / stems;

k is the average number of baskets on one branch, pieces;

Z _c - the average number of seeds in one basket, pieces;

m _c - weight of 1000 achenes, g;

N _p - the average height of plants in the plots, cm;

h _b - the average length of the branches of the first order on one plant, cm;

D _k - diameter of the stem of safflower in the butt part, mm;

d _b - the diameter of the branches of the first order at the stem, mm;

α - coefficient taking into account the available moisture in the layer 0-0.3 m during the formation and maturation of seeds in baskets;

ω is a coefficient taking into account the heat supply of safflower plants during the maturation of achenes;

τ - coefficient taking into account damage to achenes in baskets of agricultural pests and pathogenic microflora;

β - coefficient taking into account adverse weather effects on achenes during the maturation of baskets;

η - coefficient taking into account the presence of pollinators during safflower flowering;

γ - coefficient taking into account the period of sowing oil seeds in the forecast year (late autumn sowing, winter sowing, early spring sowing).

The invention is illustrated by examples and tabular data.

Information confirming the possibility of implementing the claimed invention are as follows.

A method for predicting the yield of safflower oil seeds is to optimize the cleaning time of the baskets when the seeds have a moisture content of not more than 17% and determine the calculation of the gene pool of safflower seeds at an early stage of basket formation. We will consider a method for predicting the yield of achenes on two promising varieties of safflower Krasilny - Tashkent 134 and Astrakhan 747, zoned for conditions of the Lower Volga region with a sharply continental climate.

Example 1. After harvesting the predecessor (winter wheat, corn for silage, etc.), stubble peeling is carried out. When cultivated on non-irrigated lands before the main tillage in full, phosphoric and potassium fertilizers are applied superficially. Plowing with a turnover of the reservoir is at the end of September. Then, the upper comb layer of the wrapped soil layers is cut with heavy disk harrows (BDT-3.0; BDT-7M and others). In the first decade, the top layer is cultivated with KSO-5 cultivators to a depth of 8-10 cm and leveled with heavy tooth harrows, raining in October, the seed layer is replenished with moisture. Sowing is conducted either until November 5–7, before the onset of the first stable frosts, or during the period of November 15–20 (through mud) in the winter thaw. Sowing is carried out either with SZ-3.6 grain seeders with a row spacing of 0.75 m, or with a SUPN-8 pneumatic seeder. The depth of cutting seeds is 6 ± 1 cm. The sowing rate of Tashkent safflower seeds is 134 - 12 kg / ha or 250 thousand germinating seeds per hectare. In the early spring period harrowing is carried out by medium harrows ZBZSS-1,0 in one trace. Then, nitrogen fertilizers are applied superficially.

In the phase of the formation of baskets on the control plots in five repetitions (according to the methodology of the field experiment B.A.Dospekhova, 19 ..) establish by counting the number of stems on an area of 1 m ² and branches of the first order. The calculation results are entered in the field log. The averaged data from field studies performed during the period 2006-2008 were shown by numerical data in table 1.

Measuring instruments measure the height of safflower plants, the length of the branches of the first order, the diameter of the stem of safflower in the butt part, the diameters of the branches of the first order at the stem. These data are shown in lines 6, 7, 8 and 9 of table 1.

The number of baskets on one branch is established by dividing the total number of baskets by the number of branches of the first order.

Based on varietal testing of safflower dyeing Tashkent 134, the number of seeds in one basket and the weight of 1000 seeds are established.

The predicted yield of safflower seeds of the Tashkent Tashkent variety is calculated by the formula

,

,

where Q is the predicted yield of the gene pool of safflower seeds at the stage of basket formation, kg / ha;

n is the average number of plants in five control plots in the phase of the formation of baskets, units / m;

b - the number of branches of the first order on one stalk, pieces / stems;

k is the average number of baskets on one branch, pieces;

Z _c - the average number of seeds in one basket, pieces;

m _c - weight of 1000 achenes, g;

N _p - the average height of plants in the plots, cm;

h _b - the average length of the branches of the first order on one plant, cm;

D _k - diameter of the stem of safflower in the butt part, mm;

d _b - the diameter of the branches of the first order at the stem, mm;

α - coefficient taking into account the available moisture in the layer 0-0.3 m during the formation and maturation of seeds in baskets;

ω is a coefficient taking into account the heat supply of safflower plants during the maturation of achenes;

τ - coefficient taking into account damage to achenes in baskets of agricultural pests and pathogenic microflora;

β - coefficient taking into account adverse weather effects on achenes during the maturation of baskets;

η - coefficient taking into account the presence of pollinators during safflower flowering;

γ - coefficient taking into account the period of sowing oil seeds in the forecast year (late autumn sowing, winter sowing, early spring sowing).

The coefficient α in the range of 0.26; 0.21; We established 0.19 on the basis of soil sampling in the 0-0.3 m layer.

The values of the coefficient ω are determined based on the data of the weather station of the Volgograd State Agricultural Academy. Heat resources of the Lower Volga region are not limited.

The coefficients τ, η and β are established on the basis of experimental data performed during the period of research on the lands of the Gorodischensky district of the Volgograd region.

The data presented allow us to calculate the expected yield of safflower seeds Tashkent Tashkent 134 by years:

In the calculations, the value of γ _{3 is} adopted on the basis of obtaining experimental data for early-spring sowing of seeds.

The forecast error in (%) is established by calculation according to the formula

Δ = (QQ _fact ) 100 / Q _fact

where Δ is the forecast error,%;

Q is the projected yield established by the above formula, kg / ha;

Q _fact - yield of safflower seeds from control plots after threshing of sheaves in a laboratory thresher (g / m ² ), kg / ha. The forecast for years of research averaged no more than 10%, which is quite acceptable for agriculture.

With long-term storage of safflower seeds, their seed germination and growth energy are established. Then, corrections to the forecast data are introduced.

Example 2. In 2006-2008, crops were sown during winter thaws of safflower dyeing Astrakhan 747.

The following are the calculations of the predicted yield of safflower seeds Astrakhansky 747 in 2006, 2007 and 2008:

The remaining data are summarized in table 2.

The presented data show the universality of the formula for predicting the gene pool of safflower plants at different planting dates. The data in table 2 show that the average forecast error does not exceed 10%.

Thus, the above information proves the possibility of the applicant achieving a technical result.

Table 1 Estimated and experimental data on the yield of oilseeds of safflower varieties Tashkent Tashkent 134 (according to averaged data from 2006-2008) No. p / p Name of indicator Symbol Dimension Years of research Three years on average 2006 2007 2008 one 2 3 four 5 6 7 8 one The average number of plants in five control plots in the phase of the formation of baskets n

23.06 22.87 23.17 23.0 2 The number of branches of the first order on one stem b

8.1 7.2 8.4 7.9 3 The average number of baskets on one branch k pieces 2.1 1.9 2.2 2.0 four The average number of seeds in one basket Zc pieces 20,4 18.6 19.8 19.6 5 Weight 1000 seeds m _c g 24.6 27.4 26,4 27.4 6 The average height of plants in the plots Hp cm 89.4 77.3 92.1 86.2 7 The average length of first-order branches on one plant h _b cm 16.8 17.3 16,0 16.7 8 Diameter of safflower stem in butt part D _k mm 12.6 14.3 11.8 12.9 9 The diameter of the first order branch of the stem d _b mm 3.4 2,8 3,1 3,1 10 Coefficient taking into account the available moisture in the layer 0-0.3 m during the periods of formation and maturation of achenes in baskets α - 0.26 0.21 0.19 0.22 eleven Coefficient taking into account the heat supply of safflower plants during the maturation of achenes ω - 1.06 1.14 1.26 1.15 12 Coefficient taking into account damage to achenes in baskets of agricultural pests and pathogenic microflora τ - 0,086 0,091 0,097 0,091 13 Coefficient taking into account the presence of pollinators during safflower flowering η - 0.63 0.71 0.85 0.73 fourteen Coefficient taking into account adverse weather effects on achenes during the maturation of baskets β - 0.82 0.91 0.71 0.81 fifteen The coefficient taking into account the period of sowing oil seed in the forecast year: late fall sowing γ1 - 1.26 1.30 1.20 1.25 winter sowing γ2 - 1,6 1.42 1.31 1.36 early spring sowing γ3 - 0.83 0.84 0.74 0.80 16 Predicted Yields Q

1179.3 826.1 1059.3 1021.6 17 Actual oil seed yield QF

897.3 926.7 917.6 913.8 eighteen Forecast error Δ % +3.14 -10.85 +15.44 + 9.81

Claims (1)

A method for predicting the yield maslosemyanok safflower comprising optimization of timing baskets harvesting and determination calculation genofund achenes safflower formation stage baskets, characterized in that the phase of forming the baskets on the control plots in fivefold resets amount stems per area of 1 m ² and the branches of the first order, is measured the height of safflower, the length of branches of the first order, the diameter of the stem of safflower in the butt part, the diameter of the branches of the first order at the stem, the number of baskets on one branch of the first order based on the set number sortoopisaniya achenes in one basket and the weight of 1000 seeds and safflower achenes predicted yield is calculated by the formula

where Q is the predicted yield of the gene pool of safflower seeds at the stage of basket formation, kg / ha;
n is the average number of plants in five control plots in the phase of the formation of baskets, units / m ² ;
b - the number of branches of the first order on one stem, pieces / stem;
k is the average number of baskets on one branch, pieces;
Z _c - the average number of seeds in one basket, pieces;
m _c - weight of 1000 achenes, g;
N _p - the average height of plants in the plots, cm;
h _b - the average length of the branches of the first order on one plant, cm;
D _k - diameter of the stem of safflower in the butt part, mm;
d _b - the diameter of the branches of the first order at the stem, mm;
α - coefficient taking into account the available moisture in the layer 0-0.3 m during the formation and maturation of seeds in baskets;
ω - coefficient taking into account the heat supply of safflower plants during the ripening of achenes;
τ - coefficient taking into account damage to achenes in baskets by agricultural pests and pathogenic microflora;
β - coefficient taking into account adverse weather effects on achenes during the maturation of baskets;
η - coefficient taking into account the presence of pollinators during safflower flowering;
γ - coefficient taking into account the period of sowing oil seeds in the forecast year (late autumn sowing, winter sowing, early spring sowing).