JPWO2015198453A1 - Elevator parts demand forecast system - Google Patents

Elevator parts demand forecast system Download PDF

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JPWO2015198453A1
JPWO2015198453A1 JP2016528944A JP2016528944A JPWO2015198453A1 JP WO2015198453 A1 JPWO2015198453 A1 JP WO2015198453A1 JP 2016528944 A JP2016528944 A JP 2016528944A JP 2016528944 A JP2016528944 A JP 2016528944A JP WO2015198453 A1 JPWO2015198453 A1 JP WO2015198453A1
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elevator
demand
parts
contract form
replacement
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JP6057025B2 (en
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洋昭 木村
洋昭 木村
恒次 阪田
恒次 阪田
真弘 掛野
真弘 掛野
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Mitsubishi Electric Corp
Mitsubishi Electric Building Techno-Service Co Ltd
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Mitsubishi Electric Building Techno-Service Co Ltd
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/04—Manufacturing
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/30—Computing systems specially adapted for manufacturing

Abstract

昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる昇降機の部品需要予測システムを提供する。このため、部品需要予測システムは、需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求め、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する交換率補正部、を備えた。当該構成によれば、昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。Provided is an elevator parts demand prediction system capable of predicting the demand of elevator parts with higher accuracy. For this reason, the parts demand prediction system obtains the probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the parts to the actual replacement time for each elevator contract form in which the parts for which the demand is to be predicted are used. An exchange rate correction unit that corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution is provided. According to the said structure, the demand of the components of an elevator can be estimated with higher precision.

Description

この発明は、昇降機の部品需要予測システムに関する。   The present invention relates to a parts demand prediction system for an elevator.

例えば、特許文献１には、部品需要予測システムが記載されている。当該部品需要予測システムにおいては、製品の保有台数と当該製品の部品における経過時間毎の交換率とに基づいて部品毎の需要を予測する。   For example, Patent Document 1 describes a parts demand prediction system. In the parts demand prediction system, the demand for each part is predicted based on the number of products held and the exchange rate for each elapsed time in the parts of the product.

日本特開２００３−３３１０８７号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2003-331087

しかしながら、昇降機の部品においては、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間が一定でない。このため、特許文献１に記載のもので昇降機の部品の需要を予測した場合、予測の精度が低い。   However, in the elevator parts, the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is not constant. For this reason, when the demand for parts of an elevator is predicted with the one described in Patent Document 1, the accuracy of prediction is low.

この発明は、上述の課題を解決するためになされた。この発明の目的は、昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる昇降機の部品需要予測システムを提供することである。   The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems. An object of the present invention is to provide an elevator parts demand forecasting system that can predict demand for elevator parts with higher accuracy.

この発明に係る昇降機の部品需要予測システムは、需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求め、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する交換率補正部、を備えた。   The elevator parts demand prediction system according to the present invention obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the parts to the actual replacement time for each elevator contract form in which the parts whose demands are to be predicted are used, and the elevator contract An exchange rate correction unit that corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the component for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each form.

この発明によれば、交換率補正部は、部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を昇降機の契約形態毎に求める。交換率補正部は、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する。このため、昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   According to the present invention, the replacement rate correction unit obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the part to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator. The exchange rate correction unit corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the parts for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, the demand for parts of the elevator can be predicted with higher accuracy.

この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS It is a block diagram of the elevator with which the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention is applied. この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムのブロック図である。It is a block diagram of the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention. この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより集計された昇降機の管理台数を示す図である。It is a figure which shows the management number of the elevators totaled by the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention. この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより計算された部品の交換率を示す図である。It is a figure which shows the replacement rate of the components calculated by the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention. この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより補正された部品の交換率を示す図である。It is a figure which shows the replacement ratio of the components correct | amended by the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention. この発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより予測された部品の需要を示す図である。It is a figure which shows the demand of the components estimated by the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 1 of this invention. この発明の実施の形態２における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。It is a block diagram of the elevator with which the components demand prediction system of the elevator in Embodiment 2 of this invention is applied.

この発明を実施するための形態について添付の図面に従って説明する。なお、各図中、同一又は相当する部分には同一の符号が付される。当該部分の重複説明は適宜に簡略化ないし省略する。   A mode for carrying out the invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. In addition, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to the part which is the same or it corresponds in each figure. The overlapping explanation of the part is appropriately simplified or omitted.

実施の形態１．
図１はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of an elevator to which the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention is applied.

図１において、第１昇降機１は、エレベータからなる。管理会社は、第１昇降機１を所有した顧客と第１昇降機１に対する管理契約を結ぶ。第２昇降機２は、エレベータからなる。管理会社は、第２昇降機２を所有した顧客と第２昇降機２に対する管理契約を結ぶ。   In FIG. 1, the 1st elevator 1 consists of an elevator. The management company concludes a management contract for the first elevator 1 with the customer who owns the first elevator 1. The second elevator 2 is composed of an elevator. The management company concludes a management contract for the second elevator 2 with the customer who owns the second elevator 2.

第１昇降機１の契約形態と第２昇降機２の契約形態とは異なる場合もある。例えば、第１昇降機１の契約形態は、ＦＭからなる。契約形態ＦＭは、機能維持修理の部品交換を含む契約形態である。例えば、第２昇降機２の契約形態は、ＰＯＧからなる。契約形態ＰＯＧは、機能維持修理の部品交換を含まない契約形態である。   The contract form of the first elevator 1 and the contract form of the second elevator 2 may be different. For example, the contract form of the first elevator 1 is FM. The contract form FM is a contract form including parts replacement for function maintenance repair. For example, the contract form of the second elevator 2 is POG. The contract form POG is a contract form that does not include parts replacement for function maintenance repair.

昇降機の部品においては、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間が一定でない。例えば、契約形態ＦＭの昇降機の部品においては、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間が比較的短く設定される。例えば、契約形態ＰＯＧの昇降機の部品においては、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間が顧客の側の発注の遅れ等により比較的長くなる場合がある。   In the elevator parts, the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is not constant. For example, in the elevator parts of the contract form FM, the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is set to be relatively short. For example, in the elevator parts of the contract form POG, the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time may be relatively long due to delay in ordering on the customer side.

第１記憶装置３は、管理会社に設けられる。第１記憶装置３は、顧客情報データベースを記憶する。顧客情報データベースは、昇降機の契約形態に関する情報を含む。例えば、第１記憶装置３は、第１昇降機１の契約形態がＦＭであることを示す情報を記憶する。例えば、第１記憶装置３は、第２昇降機２の契約形態がＰＯＧであることを示す情報を記憶する。   The first storage device 3 is provided in a management company. The first storage device 3 stores a customer information database. The customer information database includes information on the elevator contract form. For example, the first storage device 3 stores information indicating that the contract form of the first elevator 1 is FM. For example, the first storage device 3 stores information indicating that the contract form of the second elevator 2 is POG.

第２記憶装置４は、管理会社に設けられる。第２記憶装置４は、交換履歴データベースを記憶する。交換履歴データベースは、昇降機の部品毎の交換履歴に関する情報を含む。例えば、第２記憶装置４は、部品ｘの交換履歴に関する情報を記憶する。   The second storage device 4 is provided in the management company. The second storage device 4 stores an exchange history database. The replacement history database includes information on replacement history for each part of the elevator. For example, the second storage device 4 stores information related to the replacement history of the part x.

部品需要予測システム５は、管理会社に設けられる。部品需要予測システム５は、第１記憶装置３の顧客情報データベースと第２記憶装置４の交換履歴データベースとに基づいて第１昇降機１と第２昇降機２とに利用された部品毎の需要を経過時間毎に予測する。当該予測に基づいて、補修部品の製造、部品毎の在庫管理、部品毎の交換が正確に行われる。   The parts demand prediction system 5 is provided in a management company. The parts demand prediction system 5 passes the demand for each part used for the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2 based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3 and the replacement history database of the second storage device 4. Predict every hour. Based on the prediction, the manufacture of repair parts, inventory management for each part, and replacement for each part are accurately performed.

次に、図２を用いて、部品需要予測システム５を説明する。
図２はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムのブロック図である。Next, the component demand prediction system 5 will be described with reference to FIG.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a parts demand prediction system for an elevator according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

部品需要予測システム５は、交換実績記憶部５ａと管理台数集計部５ｂと交換率計算部５ｃと交換率補正部５ｄと需要予測部５ｅとを備える。   The parts demand prediction system 5 includes a replacement record storage unit 5a, a managed number counting unit 5b, a replacement rate calculation unit 5c, a replacement rate correction unit 5d, and a demand prediction unit 5e.

交換実績記憶部５ａは、契約別交換実績データベースを記憶する。契約別交換実績データベースは、昇降機の契約毎における部品毎の交換実績に関する情報を含む。当該交換実績に関する情報は、第１記憶装置３の顧客情報データベースと第２記憶装置４の交換履歴データベースとに基づいて求められる。   The exchange record storage unit 5a stores a contract-specific exchange record database. The contract-by-contract replacement result database includes information on replacement results for each part in each elevator contract. Information regarding the exchange results is obtained based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3 and the exchange history database of the second storage device 4.

管理台数集計部５ｂは、第１記憶装置３の顧客情報データベースに基づいて経過時間毎の昇降機の管理台数を集計する。例えば、管理台数集計部５ｂは、経過年数ｉの昇降機の管理台数をｎ（ｉ）として集計する。管理台数集計部５ｂは、経過時間毎の部品毎の数を計算する。例えば、管理台数集計部５ｂは、経過年数毎の部品毎の数を計算する。   Based on the customer information database of the first storage device 3, the managed number counting unit 5 b totals the number of elevators managed for each elapsed time. For example, the managed number counting unit 5b counts the number of managed elevators with elapsed years i as n (i). The managed number totalization unit 5b calculates the number of each part for each elapsed time. For example, the managed number counting unit 5b calculates the number of each part for each elapsed year.

交換率計算部５ｃは、第２記憶装置４の交換履歴データベースに基づいて経過時間毎の部品毎の交換率を計算する。例えば、交換率計算部５ｃは、経過年数ｉの部品ｘの交換率をｃｘ（ｉ）として計算する。The replacement rate calculation unit 5 c calculates the replacement rate for each component for each elapsed time based on the replacement history database of the second storage device 4. For example, the replacement rate calculation unit 5c calculates the replacement rate of the part x having the elapsed years i as c x (i).

交換率補正部５ｄは、需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求める。例えば、交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態がＦＭの際の交換実施率をｐＦＭ（ｔ）として求める。例えば、交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態がＰＯＧの際の交換実施率をｐＰＯＧ（ｔ）として求める。The exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time of the part to the actual replacement time for each contract form of the elevator in which the part for which the demand is to be predicted is used. For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains the exchange execution rate when the contract form of the elevator is FM as p FM (t). For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d obtains the exchange execution rate when the contract form of the elevator is POG as p POG (t).

交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する。例えば、交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態がＦＭの際における交換率ｃｘ（ｉ）を交換実施率ｐＦＭ（ｔ）に基づいて補正する。例えば、交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態がＰＯＧの際における交換率ｃｘ（ｉ）を交換実施率ｐＰＯＧ（ｔ）に基づいて補正する。The exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate c x (i) when the contract form of the elevator is FM based on the exchange execution rate p FM (t). For example, the exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate c x (i) when the contract form of the elevator is POG based on the exchange execution rate p POG (t).

需要予測部５ｅは、昇降機の契約形態毎の割合を経過時間毎に計算する。例えば、需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける昇降機の契約形態ＦＭの割合をα（ｉ）として計算する。この際、需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける昇降機の契約形態ＰＯＧの割合を（１−α（ｉ））として計算する。   The demand prediction part 5e calculates the ratio for every contract form of an elevator for every elapsed time. For example, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the ratio of the elevator contract form FM in the elapsed years i as α (i). At this time, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the ratio of the elevator contract form POG in the elapsed years i as (1-α (i)).

需要予測部５ｅは、交換率補正部５ｄにより補正された交換率に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出する。需要予測部５ｅは、昇降機の契約形態毎における当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を加算することにより当該部品の総合的な需要を予測する。   The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each elevator contract type based on the replacement rate corrected by the replacement rate correction unit 5d. The demand prediction unit 5e predicts the overall demand for the part by adding the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator.

例えば、契約形態ＦＭの昇降機に対し、需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける部品ｘの基準となる交換数ＢＦＭ（ｉ）を次の（１）式で計算する。For example, for the elevator of the contract form FM, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number B FM (i) that is a reference for the component x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (1).

ＢＦＭ（ｉ）＝Ｃｘ（ｉ）・α（ｉ）・ｎ（ｉ） （１）B FM (i) = C x (i) · α (i) · n (i) (1)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉに対し他の年から回ってくる部品ｘの交換数ＡＦＭ（ｉ）を次の（２）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the number of replacements A FM (i) of parts x coming from another year with respect to the elapsed year i by the following equation (2).

ＡＦＭ（ｉ）＝ΣｊｐＦＭ（ｉ−ｊ）・Ｃｘ（ｊ）・α（ｊ）・ｎ（ｊ），Ｊ≠ｉ （２）A FM (i) = Σ j p FM (i−j) · C x (j) · α (j) · n (j), J ≠ i (2)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉから他の年に回る部品ｘの交換数ＣＦＭ（ｉ）を次の（３）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number C FM (i) of the part x that turns to another year from the elapsed year i by the following equation (3).

ＣＦＭ（ｉ）＝Ｃｘ（ｉ）・α（ｉ）・ｎ（ｉ）・（１−ｐＦＭ（０）） （３）C FM (i) = C x (i) · α (i) · n (i) · (1−p FM (0)) (3)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける部品ｘの需要ＤＦＭ（ｉ）を次の（４）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand D FM (i) of the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (4).

ＤＦＭ（ｉ）＝ＢＦＭ（ｉ）＋ＡＦＭ（ｉ）−ＣＦＭ（ｉ） （４）D FM (i) = B FM (i) + A FM (i) -C FM (i) (4)

契約形態ＰＯＧの昇降機に対し、需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける部品ｘの基準となる交換数ＢＰＯＧ（ｉ）を次の（５）式で計算する。For the elevator of the contract form POG, the demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number B POG (i) as a reference for the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (5).

ＢＰＯＧ（ｉ）＝Ｃｘ（ｉ）・（１−α（ｉ））・ｎ（ｉ） （５）B POG (i) = C x (i) · (1−α (i)) · n (i) (5)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉに対し他の年から回ってくる部品ｘの交換数ＡＰＯＧ（ｉ）を次の（６）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number A POG (i) of parts x coming from another year with respect to the elapsed year i by the following equation (6).

ＡＰＯＧ（ｉ）＝ΣｊｐＰＯＧ（ｉ−ｊ）・Ｃｘ（ｊ）・（１−α（ｊ））・ｎ（ｊ），Ｊ≠ｉ （６）A POG (i) = Σ j p POG (i−j) · C x (j) · (1−α (j)) · n (j), J ≠ i (6)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉから他の年に回る部品ｘの交換数ＣＰＯＧ（ｉ）を次の（７）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the replacement number C POG (i) of the part x that turns to another year from the elapsed year i by the following equation (7).

ＣＰＯＧ（ｉ）＝Ｃｘ（ｉ）・（１−α（ｉ））・ｎ（ｉ）・（１−ｐＰＯＧ（０）） （７）C POG (i) = C x (i). (1-α (i)). N (i). (1-p POG (0)) (7)

需要予測部５ｅは、経過年数ｉにおける部品ｘの需要ＤＰＯＧ（ｉ）を次の（８）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand D POG (i) of the part x in the elapsed years i by the following equation (8).

ＤＰＯＧ（ｉ）＝ＢＰＯＧ（ｉ）＋ＡＰＯＧ（ｉ）−ＣＰＯＧ（ｉ） （８）D POG (i) = B POG (i) + A POG (i) −C POG (i) (8)

需要予測部５ｅは、総合的な部品ｘの需要Ｄｘを次の（９）式で計算する。The demand prediction unit 5e calculates the demand Dx of the comprehensive part x by the following equation (9).

Ｄｘ＝Σｉ（ＤＦＭ（ｉ）＋ＤＰＯＧ（ｉ）） （９）D x = Σ i (D FM (i) + D POG (i)) (9)

次に、図３を用いて、管理台数集計部５ｂの動作を説明する。
図３はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより集計された昇降機の管理台数を示す図である。図３の横軸は経過年数である。図３の縦軸は昇降機の管理台数である。Next, the operation of the managed number counting unit 5b will be described with reference to FIG.
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the number of elevators managed by the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The horizontal axis in FIG. The vertical axis in FIG. 3 is the number of elevators managed.

図３に示すように、管理台数集計部５ｂは、経過年数毎の昇降機の管理台数を集計する。図３においては、１年目から３年目にかけて、昇降機の管理台数が徐々に増えている。３年目から６年目にかけては、昇降機の管理台数が徐々に減っている。   As shown in FIG. 3, the managed number totaling unit 5 b totals the number of managed elevators for each elapsed year. In FIG. 3, the number of elevators managed gradually increases from the first year to the third year. From the third year to the sixth year, the number of elevators managed has gradually decreased.

次に、図４を用いて、交換率計算部５ｃの動作を説明する。
図４はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより計算された部品の交換率を示す図である。図４の横軸は経過年数である。図４の縦軸は部品の交換率である。Next, operation | movement of the exchange rate calculation part 5c is demonstrated using FIG.
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a part replacement rate calculated by the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The horizontal axis of FIG. 4 is the elapsed years. The vertical axis in FIG. 4 is the part replacement rate.

図４に示すように、交換率計算部５ｃは、経過年数毎の部品毎の交換率を計算する。図４においては、経過年数が増えるにつれて、部品の交換率が上がっている。   As shown in FIG. 4, the replacement rate calculation unit 5 c calculates the replacement rate for each component for each elapsed year. In FIG. 4, as the number of elapsed years increases, the part replacement rate increases.

次に、図５を用いて、交換率補正部５ｄの動作を説明する。
図５はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより補正された部品の交換率を示す図である。図５の横軸は部品の交換予定時期からの実際の経過年数である。図５の縦軸は部品の交換率である。Next, the operation of the exchange rate correction unit 5d will be described with reference to FIG.
FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the parts replacement rate corrected by the elevator parts demand forecasting system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The horizontal axis in FIG. 5 represents the actual number of years that have elapsed since the scheduled replacement time of the parts. The vertical axis in FIG. 5 is the part replacement rate.

図５に示すように、交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態毎に部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求める。図５においては、契約形態ＦＭの昇降機の部品に関し、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間の平均値は、比較的短い期間となっている。契約形態ＰＯＧの昇降機の部品に関し、交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの期間の平均値は、比較的長い期間となっている。   As shown in FIG. 5, the replacement rate correction unit 5 d obtains a probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time for each elevator contract form. In FIG. 5, regarding the elevator parts of the contract form FM, the average value of the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is a relatively short period. Regarding the elevator parts of the contract form POG, the average value of the period from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is a relatively long period.

次に、図６を用いて、需要予測部５ｅの動作を説明する。
図６はこの発明の実施の形態１における昇降機の部品需要予測システムにより予測された部品の需要を示す図である。図６の横軸は経過年数である。図６の縦軸は部品の総合的な需要である。Next, operation | movement of the demand prediction part 5e is demonstrated using FIG.
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the demand for parts predicted by the elevator parts demand forecasting system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The horizontal axis in FIG. 6 is the elapsed years. The vertical axis in FIG. 6 is the total demand for parts.

図６に示すように、需要予測部５ｅは、昇降機の契約形態毎における部品の経過年数毎の需要を加算することにより部品の総合的な需要を予測する。図６においては、部品の総合的な需要の分布は、交換率補正部５ｄにより求められた確率分布を反映する。その結果、１年目から３年目にかけては、部品の総合的な需要が減っている。３年目から５年目にかけては、部品の総合的な需要が増えている。５年目から６年目にかけては、部品の総合的な需要が減っている。   As shown in FIG. 6, the demand prediction unit 5 e predicts the total demand for parts by adding the demand for each elapsed year of parts for each contract form of the elevator. In FIG. 6, the distribution of the total demand for parts reflects the probability distribution obtained by the replacement rate correction unit 5d. As a result, the overall demand for parts is decreasing from the first year to the third year. From the third year to the fifth year, the overall demand for parts is increasing. From the 5th year to the 6th year, the overall demand for parts is decreasing.

以上で説明した実施の形態１によれば、交換率補正部５ｄは、部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を昇降機の契約形態毎に求める。交換率補正部５ｄは、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する。このため、昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   According to Embodiment 1 demonstrated above, the replacement rate correction | amendment part 5d calculates | requires the probability distribution from the replacement scheduled time of components to the actual replacement time for every contract form of an elevator. The exchange rate correction unit 5d corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the parts for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, the demand for parts of the elevator can be predicted with higher accuracy.

具体的には、部品の経過時間毎の需要は、補正された交換率に基づいて昇降機の契約形態毎に算出される。部品の総合的な需要は、昇降機の契約形態毎における部品の経過時間毎の需要を加算することにより予測される。このため、昇降機の契約形態に応じて部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   Specifically, the demand for each elapsed time of parts is calculated for each elevator contract type based on the corrected replacement rate. The total demand for parts is predicted by adding the demand for each elapsed time of parts for each contract form of the elevator. For this reason, demand for parts can be predicted with higher accuracy in accordance with the contract form of the elevator.

また、部品の経過時間毎の需要は、昇降機の契約形態毎の割合に応じて昇降機の契約形態毎に算出される。このため、部品の需要を経過時間毎により高精度に算出することができる。   Moreover, the demand for every elapsed time of components is calculated for every contract form of a lift according to the ratio for every contract form of a lift. For this reason, the demand for components can be calculated with higher accuracy for each elapsed time.

この際、昇降機の契約形態毎の割合は、経過時間に応じて変化する。このため、部品の需要を経過時間毎により高精度に算出することができる。   At this time, the ratio for each contract form of the elevator changes according to the elapsed time. For this reason, the demand for components can be calculated with higher accuracy for each elapsed time.

実施の形態２．
図７はこの発明の実施の形態２における昇降機の部品需要予測システムが適用される昇降機の構成図である。なお、実施の形態１と同一又は相当部分には同一符号を付して説明を省略する。Embodiment 2. FIG.
FIG. 7 is a configuration diagram of an elevator to which the elevator parts demand prediction system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention is applied. In addition, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to Embodiment 1 and an equivalent part, and description is abbreviate | omitted.

図７において、遠隔管理装置６は、管理会社に設けられる。遠隔管理装置６は、第１昇降機１の状態と第２昇降機２の状態とをほぼリアルタイムで把握する。   In FIG. 7, the remote management device 6 is provided in a management company. The remote management device 6 grasps the state of the first elevator 1 and the state of the second elevator 2 almost in real time.

管理会社は、遠隔管理装置６の把握状態に基づいて第１昇降機１と第２昇降機２とを遠隔管理する。管理会社は、遠隔管理装置６が第１昇降機１または第２昇降機２の異変を把握した際に当該異変を解消する保守を行う。例えば、管理会社は、第１昇降機１または第２昇降機における部品の取り付けの状態を調整する。その結果、第１昇降機１と第２昇降機２とにおいては、部品の摩耗、部品の破損等が減る。   The management company remotely manages the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2 based on the grasping state of the remote management device 6. When the remote management device 6 grasps a change in the first elevator 1 or the second elevator 2, the management company performs maintenance to eliminate the change. For example, the management company adjusts the attachment state of the components in the first elevator 1 or the second elevator. As a result, in the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2, wear of parts, breakage of parts, and the like are reduced.

以上で説明した実施の形態２によれば、第１昇降機１と第２昇降機２においては、部品の摩耗、部品の破損等が減る。このため、部品の交換率を通常よりも下げることができる。その結果、部品の総合的な需要を減らすことができる。   According to the second embodiment described above, in the first elevator 1 and the second elevator 2, wear of parts, breakage of parts, and the like are reduced. For this reason, the replacement rate of parts can be lowered than usual. As a result, the overall demand for parts can be reduced.

なお、説明上経過年数で説明したが、経過月数、経過日数等の時間であれば、単位は何でもよい。   In addition, although it demonstrated by elapsed years on description, as long as time, such as elapsed months and elapsed days, a unit may be used.

なお、昇降機の契約形態は、３種類以上あってもよい。この場合も、昇降機の契約形態に応じて部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   There may be three or more types of elevator contracts. Also in this case, the demand for parts can be predicted with higher accuracy according to the contract form of the elevator.

また、未契約を契約形態の一種としてもよい。この際、管理契約を結んでいない昇降機に対して部品の手配のみを依頼された時期を未契約の昇降機における部品の交換時期とすればよい。この場合、未契約の昇降機の部品も考慮しつつ、昇降機の部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   Moreover, unsigned may be a kind of contract form. At this time, the time when only the part arrangement is requested to the elevator that does not have a management contract may be set as the part replacement time in the elevator that is not contracted. In this case, the demand for elevator parts can be predicted with higher accuracy while taking into account the parts of the elevators that have not been contracted.

また、第１昇降機１と第２昇降機２とを乗客コンベアとしてもよい。この場合、乗客コンベアの部品の需要をより高精度に予測することができる。   Moreover, it is good also considering the 1st elevator 1 and the 2nd elevator 2 as a passenger conveyor. In this case, demand for passenger conveyor parts can be predicted with higher accuracy.

以上のように、この発明に係る昇降機の部品需要予測システムは、部品が交換予定時期に達してから実際に交換されるまでの期間が一定でない昇降機に利用できる。   As described above, the parts demand prediction system for an elevator according to the present invention can be used for an elevator in which the period from when a part reaches the scheduled replacement time until the part is actually replaced is not constant.

１ 第１昇降機、 ２ 第２昇降機、 ３、第１記憶装置、 ４ 第２記憶装置、 ５ 部品需要予測システム、 ５ａ 交換実績記憶部、 ５ｂ 管理台数集計部、 ５ｃ 交換率計算部、 ５ｄ 交換率補正部、 ５ｅ 需要予測部、 ６ 遠隔管理装置   DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 1st elevator, 2 2nd elevator, 3, 1st memory | storage device, 4 2nd memory | storage device, 5 Parts demand prediction system, 5a Replacement result memory | storage part, 5b Managed number totaling part, 5c Exchange rate calculation part, 5d Exchange rate Correction unit, 5e Demand forecasting unit, 6 Remote management device

この発明に係る昇降機の部品需要予測システムは、需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの交換実施率を確率分布として求め、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する交換率補正部、を備えた。
The parts demand prediction system for an elevator according to the present invention obtains, as a probability distribution , the replacement execution rate from the scheduled replacement time of the part to the actual replacement time for each elevator contract form in which the part for which the demand is to be predicted is used. And an exchange rate correction unit that corrects the exchange rate for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator based on the probability distribution for each contract form of the elevator.

Claims (5)

需要の予測対象となる部品が利用された昇降機の契約形態毎に当該部品の交換予定時期から実際の交換時期までの確率分布を求め、昇降機の契約形態毎の確率分布に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する交換率補正部、
を備えた昇降機の部品需要予測システム。The probability distribution from the scheduled replacement time to the actual replacement time is calculated for each elevator contract form that uses the parts for which demand is predicted, and the progress of the part is based on the probability distribution for each elevator contract form. An exchange rate correction unit that corrects the exchange rate for each hour for each contract form of the elevator,
Elevator parts demand forecasting system equipped with. 前記交換率補正部により補正された交換率に基づいて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出し、昇降機の契約形態毎における当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を加算することにより当該部品の総合的な需要を予測する需要予測部、
を備えた請求項１に昇降機の部品需要予測システム。Based on the exchange rate corrected by the exchange rate correction unit, the demand for each elapsed time of the part is calculated for each contract form of the elevator, and the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each contract form of the elevator is added. A demand forecasting unit for forecasting the overall demand for the part,
The elevator parts demand forecasting system as claimed in claim 1. 前記需要予測部は、昇降機の契約形態毎の割合に応じて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出する請求項２に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。   The elevator part demand prediction system according to claim 2, wherein the demand prediction unit calculates the demand for each elapsed time of the part for each elevator contract form according to the ratio of each elevator contract form. 前記需要予測部は、経過時間に応じて変化する昇降機の契約形態毎の割合に応じて当該部品の経過時間毎の需要を昇降機の契約形態毎に算出する請求項３に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。   The said demand prediction part calculates the demand for every elapsed time of the said part for every contract form of an elevator according to the ratio for every contract form of the elevator which changes according to elapsed time, The parts demand of the elevator of Claim 3 Prediction system. 前記交換率補正部は、遠隔管理により当該部品の交換率が通常よりも下がっている昇降機に対して当該部品の経過時間毎の交換率を昇降機の契約形態毎に補正する請求項１から請求項４のいずれか一項に記載の昇降機の部品需要予測システム。   The said exchange rate correction | amendment part correct | amends the exchange rate for every elapsed time of the said component for every elevator contract type with respect to the elevator with the replacement rate of the said component lower than usual by remote management. The elevator parts demand prediction system according to any one of claims 4 to 4.
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