JPH10188701A - Estimating method and device for insulator dirt amount with dynamic adjustment - Google Patents
Estimating method and device for insulator dirt amount with dynamic adjustmentInfo
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- JPH10188701A JPH10188701A JP34969296A JP34969296A JPH10188701A JP H10188701 A JPH10188701 A JP H10188701A JP 34969296 A JP34969296 A JP 34969296A JP 34969296 A JP34969296 A JP 34969296A JP H10188701 A JPH10188701 A JP H10188701A
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- Prior art keywords
- insulator
- amount
- actual
- contamination
- pilot
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
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Landscapes
- Testing Or Calibration Of Command Recording Devices (AREA)
- Testing Of Devices, Machine Parts, Or Other Structures Thereof (AREA)
- Insulators (AREA)
Abstract
Description
【０００１】[0001]
【発明の属する技術分野】本発明は、動的調整を伴う碍
子汚損量の推測方法及び装置に関するものである。BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for estimating the amount of insulator fouling involving dynamic adjustment.
【０００２】[0002]
【従来の技術】碍子の表面が塩分により汚損されるとそ
の沿面絶縁特性が低下するため、電力の安定供給のため
には碍子汚損量を正確に把握することが必要である。こ
のため、実碍子を模擬したパイロット碍子を変電所等に
設置しておき、その表面を定期的に筆洗いにより洗浄し
て汚損量（塩分付着量）を測定する筆洗い法や、超音波
洗浄して汚損量を測定する超音波洗浄法が従来から広く
実施されている。2. Description of the Related Art When the surface of an insulator is contaminated by salt, its creepage insulation property is deteriorated. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately grasp the amount of insulator contamination for stable power supply. For this reason, a pilot insulator that simulates a real insulator is installed in a substation, etc., and its surface is periodically cleaned with a brush to measure the amount of contamination (the amount of salt attached). Ultrasonic cleaning methods for measuring the amount of fouling have been widely practiced.
【０００３】これらのパイロット碍子を用いた碍子汚損
量の測定方法は、高精度で信頼性の高い測定が可能な利
点がある。ところがこれらの方法は、測定の都度パイロ
ット碍子表面のそれまでの付着汚損物を洗浄してしまう
破壊測定法であるため、このような洗浄の行われない実
碍子とパイロット碍子との汚損物の付着状態が異なって
しまう。このため、パイロット碍子自体の汚損量の測定
は正確に行えても実碍子の汚損量を表したものとはいえ
ない。[0003] The method of measuring the amount of contamination of the insulator using these pilot insulators has the advantage that highly accurate and reliable measurement can be performed. However, since these methods are destructive measurement methods in which the contaminated matter on the surface of the pilot insulator is washed each time the measurement is performed, the contaminated matter between the actual insulator and the pilot insulator that are not cleaned is used. The state will be different. For this reason, even if the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator itself can be measured accurately, it cannot be said that it represents the amount of contamination of the actual insulator.
【０００４】一方、碍子汚損量に最も大きく影響する風
向、風速、雨量等の気象データに基づいて、碍子汚損量
を計算する方法も知られている。この方法で用いられる
気象データは連続的に得られるため、碍子汚損量の経時
変化を把握することができる。しかし、このような気象
データによる計算は適当な補正を加えないと次第に誤差
が累積され、信頼性の低い推測値しか得ることができな
いという問題がある。[0004] On the other hand, there is also known a method of calculating the amount of insulator contamination based on weather data such as wind direction, wind speed, and rainfall which most greatly affect the amount of insulator contamination. Since the meteorological data used in this method is continuously obtained, it is possible to grasp the change over time in the amount of insulator fouling. However, such calculations based on weather data have a problem that unless proper correction is made, errors gradually accumulate, and only unreliable estimated values can be obtained.
【０００５】このために、気象データによる碍子汚損量
の推測値をパイロット碍子を用いた実測値により定期的
に補正することが望ましい。しかし、両者は元々測定対
象となる暴露期間が異なるため、推測値を実測値により
補正することは困難である。従って、従来は両方の数値
を併記してオペレータが判断する方法や、パイロット碍
子の暴露期間を長く取り、その実測値で割り切って推測
値を補正する方法が取られてきた。しかし前者の方法は
判断に個人差があり、また後者の方法は暴露期間の差を
無視した本質的な矛盾があるうえ、補正のインターバル
が長くなるためにその間は信頼性の低い推測値に頼らざ
るを得ないという問題があった。[0005] For this reason, it is desirable to periodically correct the estimated value of the amount of insulator fouling based on weather data based on an actually measured value using a pilot insulator. However, it is difficult to correct the estimated value with the actually measured value because the exposure period to be measured is originally different between the two. Therefore, conventionally, there has been adopted a method in which the operator makes a judgment by writing both numerical values together, and a method in which the exposure period of the pilot insulator is extended and the estimated value is divided by the measured value. However, the former method has individual differences in judgments, and the latter method has inherent contradictions ignoring differences in exposure periods, and the long interval between corrections relies on unreliable estimates during that time. There was a compelling problem.
【０００６】なお気象データによる碍子汚損量の推測式
は、従来から数年間の実績データの蓄積後に推測値と実
績データとを比較することによる見直しが行われてい
る。しかし数年間は修正なしのまま用いられており、そ
の間は推測式の妥当性に関する評価がなされておらず、
従って推測精度の向上も期待できないという問題もあっ
た。The equation for estimating the amount of insulator fouling from weather data has been conventionally reviewed by comparing the estimated value with the actual data after accumulating actual data for several years. However, it has been used without modification for several years, during which time the validity of the inference formula has not been evaluated,
Therefore, there is a problem that improvement in estimation accuracy cannot be expected.
【０００７】[0007]
【発明が解決しようとする課題】本発明は上記した従来
の問題点を解決し、実碍子とは暴露期間の異なるパイロ
ット碍子の実測値を利用して気象データによる碍子汚損
量の推測値を合理的に補正して推測を行い、しかもその
推測値を測定の都度動的に調整してより精度の高い推測
を行えるようにした動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測方
法及び装置を提供するためになされたものである。SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention solves the above-mentioned conventional problems, and makes it possible to rationalize the estimated value of the amount of insulator fouling based on weather data by using measured values of pilot insulators having different exposure periods from actual insulators. In order to provide a method and an apparatus for estimating the amount of insulator fouling involving dynamic adjustment, in which the estimation value is dynamically corrected and the estimated value is dynamically adjusted for each measurement so that a more accurate estimation can be performed. It was done in.
【０００８】[0008]
【課題を解決するための手段】上記の課題を解決するた
めになされた本発明の動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測
方法は、気象データから計算により求められる実碍子の
汚損量推測値を、パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値と気象
データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚損
量推測値を用いて補正して実碍子の汚損量の推測を行
い、この際に得られるパイロット碍子に関する実績デー
タから補正の度に回帰式を求め、この回帰式を次回の実
碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整に用いることを特徴とする
ものである。また回帰式により調整された実碍子の汚損
量の推測値の精度を、信頼幅により表すようにすること
が好ましい。なおこの場合、実碍子の汚損量の補正を、
（実碍子の汚損量）＝（気象データから計算により求め
られる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚
損量実測値）−（気象データから計算により求められる
パイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）の式により行うことが
好ましい。また本発明の動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推
測装置は、風向、風速及び雨量を測定できる気象データ
観測手段と、洗浄方式によりパイロット碍子の汚損量を
実測する測定手段と、演算手段と、記憶手段とを備え、
この演算手段は、観測された気象データから計算により
実碍子の汚損量とパイロット碍子の汚損量を計算し、そ
れらの推測値とパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値とに基づ
いて実碍子の汚損量を補正して推測値を求める機能と、
補正により得られる実績データから補正の度に回帰式を
求めて記憶手段に記憶させ、これを次回の実碍子の汚損
量の推測値の調整に用いる機能とを有するものであるこ
とを特徴とするものである。In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, a method for estimating the amount of contamination of an insulator with dynamic adjustment according to the present invention is based on a method of estimating the estimated amount of contamination of an actual insulator obtained by calculation from weather data. The estimated amount of pollution of the actual insulator was corrected by using the estimated value of the estimated amount of contamination of the pilot insulator calculated from the actual measured value of the pilot insulator and the weather data. A regression equation is obtained for each correction, and this regression equation is used for adjusting the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator next time. Further, it is preferable that the accuracy of the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation is represented by a confidence width. In this case, the correction of the contamination amount of the actual insulator is
(Pollution amount of actual insulator) = (estimated value of actual pollution amount of insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) + (actual measured value of contamination amount of pilot insulator) − (estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) ) Is preferably performed. In addition, the apparatus for estimating the amount of insulator fouling involving dynamic adjustment according to the present invention is a meteorological data observing means capable of measuring wind direction, wind speed and rainfall, a measuring means for actually measuring a fouling amount of a pilot insulator by a cleaning method, and a calculating means. Storage means,
This calculating means calculates the amount of contamination of the actual insulator and the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator by calculation from the observed weather data, and calculates the amount of contamination of the actual insulator based on the estimated value and the actually measured value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator. A function to obtain an estimated value by correcting it,
It has a function of obtaining a regression equation from the actual data obtained by the correction and storing the regression equation in the storage means at the time of correction, and using this for adjusting the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator next time. Things.
【０００９】[0009]
【発明の実施の形態】以下に本発明の具体的な内容を、
図面を参照しつつ詳細に説明する。図１は本発明の装置
の構成を示すブロック図であり、１は気象データ観測手
段であり、少なくとも風向風速計２と雨量計３とを備え
ている。４はパイロット碍子５を備えた洗浄式の汚損量
の測定手段であり、所定のインターバルでパイロット碍
子５の汚損量を実測することができるものである。６は
演算手段、７は記憶手段、８はキーボード等の入力手
段、９はＣＲＴ等の表示手段である。DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The specific contents of the present invention will be described below.
This will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the apparatus of the present invention. Reference numeral 1 denotes a meteorological data observing means, which includes at least a wind direction anemometer 2 and a rain gauge 3. Reference numeral 4 denotes a washing-type soiling amount measuring means provided with the pilot insulator 5, which can measure the soiling amount of the pilot insulator 5 at predetermined intervals. Reference numeral 6 denotes arithmetic means, 7 denotes storage means, 8 denotes input means such as a keyboard, and 9 denotes display means such as a CRT.
【００１０】演算手段６は気象データ観測手段１により
観測された気象データから、計算により実碍子１０の汚
損量推測値とパイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値とを計算
する機能を持つ。この計算法自体は既知のものを利用す
ればよい。また演算手段６は、このようにして得られた
パイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値と、測定手段４により
得られたパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値とに基づい
て、気象データから計算により求められる実碍子１０の
汚損量推測値を補正し、実碍子１０の汚損量を推測する
機能を持つ。さらに演算手段６は、補正により得られる
実績データから補正の度に回帰式を求めて記憶手段７に
記憶させ、これを次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整
に用いる機能とを有する。以下にこれらの機能の詳細を
説明する。なお、図１に示すように演算手段６は測定手
段４に自動測定の起動トリガを送る。起動トリガは実碍
子１０の汚損量の推測値が一定値に達したときに測定す
るという設定値によるトリガや、１週間に測定するとい
う一定インターバルトリガ等が適当である。The arithmetic means 6 has a function of calculating an estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator 10 and an estimated value of the contamination amount of the pilot insulator 5 from the weather data observed by the weather data observing means 1 by calculation. The calculation method itself may use a known method. Further, the calculating means 6 is obtained by calculation from weather data based on the estimated value of the contamination of the pilot insulator 5 obtained in this way and the actually measured value of the contamination of the pilot insulator 5 obtained by the measuring means 4. It has a function of correcting the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator 10 and estimating the amount of contamination of the actual insulator 10. Further, the calculation means 6 has a function of obtaining a regression equation from the actual data obtained by the correction and storing the regression equation in the storage means 7 and using the regression equation to adjust the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator next time. The details of these functions will be described below. In addition, as shown in FIG. 1, the calculating means 6 sends a trigger for automatic measurement to the measuring means 4. As the activation trigger, a trigger based on a set value for measuring when the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the real insulator 10 reaches a certain value, a constant interval trigger for measuring for one week, or the like is appropriate.
【００１１】本発明では、実碍子１０の汚損量推測値を
補正して実碍子１０の汚損量を推測するための補正式を
必ずしも限定するものではないが、（実碍子の汚損量）
＝（気象データから計算により求められる実碍子の汚損
量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（気
象データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚
損量推測値）の第１式により実碍子の汚損量を補正し、
推測値を得ることが好ましい。そこでまずこの式を導い
た過程を以下に詳細に説明する。なおこの第１式は、碍
子汚損の増加量は既付着汚損量と無関係であり、降雨に
よる碍子汚損量の減少は既付着汚損量にある割合を掛け
た量として計算できることを前提としている。この前提
は業界において技術常識とされているものである。In the present invention, the correction formula for estimating the amount of contamination of the actual insulator 10 by correcting the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator 10 is not necessarily limited.
= (Estimated value of actual pollution amount of insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) + (actual measured value of contamination amount of pilot insulator)-(estimated value of estimated amount of pollution of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) Correct the amount of insulator fouling,
It is preferable to obtain an estimate. Therefore, the process of deriving this equation will be described in detail below. The first equation is based on the premise that the amount of increase in insulator fouling is not related to the amount of fouled soil, and the decrease in the amount of fouled insulator due to rainfall can be calculated as an amount obtained by multiplying the amount of fouled soil by a certain ratio. This premise is regarded as common technical knowledge in the industry.
【００１２】〔第１式の説明〕まず図２に示すように、
実碍子１０とパイロット碍子５とがともに汚損量０の状
態（時刻t0) からスタートし、時刻t1になったとする。
この段階では実碍子１０とパイロット碍子５との暴露期
間（時刻t0〜時刻t1) は等しく、実碍子１０の汚損量推
測値＝パイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値となる。従って
（実碍子の汚損量）＝（気象データから計算により求め
られる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚
損量実測値）−（気象データから計算により求められる
パイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）の第１式において右辺
の第１項と第３項は相殺され、（実碍子の汚損量A11 ）
＝（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）となる。ただし、
パイロット碍子５はこの段階で汚損量０の状態に戻るの
で、実碍子１０とは汚損量が異なることになる。[Explanation of the first formula] First, as shown in FIG.
It is assumed that both the actual insulator 10 and the pilot insulator 5 start from a state where the amount of contamination is 0 (time t 0 ) and reach time t 1 .
Exposure period of the actual insulator 10 and the pilot insulator 5 at this stage (time t 0 ~ time t 1) is equal, the stain amount estimation value of fouling amount estimation value = pilot insulator 5 of the actual insulator 10. Therefore, (contamination amount of actual insulator) = (estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) + (actual measurement value of contamination amount of pilot insulator) − (estimation of contamination amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) In the first expression of (Value), the first and third terms on the right-hand side are offset, and the actual insulator contamination amount A 11
= (Actual value of contamination of pilot insulator). However,
At this stage, the pilot insulator 5 returns to the state of the contamination amount 0, so that the actual insulator 10 has a different contamination amount.
【００１３】次に時刻t1から時刻t2まで時間が進行した
段階における実碍子の汚損量は、（実碍子の汚損量）＝
（時刻t1における実碍子１０の汚損量A11 ）＋（時刻t1
から時刻t2までの実碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（時刻t1か
ら時刻t2までの実碍子の汚損量減少量）の第２式として
表すことができる。前記した前提の通り汚損量増加量は
既付着汚損量には無関係であるから実碍子１０とパイロ
ット碍子５間で差がなく、（時刻t1から時刻t2までの実
碍子の汚損量増加量）＝（時刻t1から時刻t2までのパイ
ロット碍子の汚損量増加量）の第３式が成立する。これ
を第２式に代入すると、（実碍子の汚損量）＝A11 ＋
（時刻t1から時刻t2までのパイロット碍子の汚損量増加
量）＋（時刻t1から時刻t2までの実碍子の汚損量減少
量）の第４式となる。[0013] Next, the real insulator of the stain amount in the stage of time from the time t 1 to time t 2 has been progress, (the actual insulator fouling amount) =
(Fouling amount A 11 of the actual insulator 10 at time t 1) + (time t 1
From the time t 2 to the time t 2 ) + (the amount of the real insulator fouling reduced from the time t 1 to the time t 2 ). As fouling amount increase of the above-described assumption is no difference between the actual insulator 10 and the pilot insulator 5 because it is independent of the already adhered fouling amount, (contamination amount increase amount of the actual insulator from time t 1 to time t 2 ) = third equation is satisfied in (fouling amount increase amount of the pilot insulator from time t 1 to time t 2). By substituting this into the second equation, (contamination amount of actual insulator) = A 11 +
A fourth type (fouling amount increase amount of the pilot insulator from time t 1 to time t 2) + (soiled weight reduction of the actual insulator from time t 1 to time t 2).
【００１４】この第４式中の、（時刻t1から時刻t2まで
の実碍子の汚損量減少量）は、前提により実碍子の既付
着汚損量×ある割合である。そして（実碍子の既付着汚
損量）＝A11 ＋（実碍子の時刻t1以降の付着汚損量）の
第５式として表せるので、この第５式に第３式を代入す
ると、（実碍子の既付着汚損量）＝A11 ＋（時刻t1以降
のパイロット碍子の付着汚損量）の第６式となる。従っ
て、（時刻t1から時刻t2までの実碍子の汚損量減少量）
は、A11 に対する減少量と、時刻t1以降のパイロット碍
子の付着汚損量に対する減少量とに分けて考えることが
できる。よって第４式は、（実碍子の汚損量）＝A11 ＋
（時刻t1から時刻t2までのパイロット碍子の汚損量増加
量）＋（A11 に対する減少量）＋（時刻t1以降のパイロ
ット碍子の付着汚損量に対する減少量）の第７式とな
る。[0014] in the fourth equation, (fouling loss amount of the actual insulator from time t 1 to time t 2) is the proportion of already deposited fouling amount × of actual insulator by assumption. Then, it can be expressed as the fifth equation of (the amount of adhered contamination of the actual insulator) = A 11 + (the amount of adhered contamination of the actual insulator after time t 1 ). By substituting the third equation into this fifth equation, the already deposited fouling amount) = a 11 + 6 formula (adhering fouling of time t 1 after the pilot insulator). Therefore, (fouling loss amount of the actual insulator from time t 1 to time t 2)
It can be divided into a decrease amount with respect to reduction and, adhering fouling of time t 1 after the pilot insulator for A 11. Therefore, the fourth equation is (amount of contamination of the actual insulator) = A 11 +
(Fouling amount increase amount of the pilot insulator from time t 1 to time t 2) + a seventh equation (decrease amount with respect to time t 1 adhering fouling of subsequent pilot insulator) (decrease relative to A 11) +.
【００１５】この第７式中の（時刻t1から時刻t2までの
パイロット碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（時刻t1以降のパイ
ロット碍子の付着汚損量に対する減少量）は、時刻t2に
おけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値そのものである
から、第７式は（実碍子の汚損量）＝A11 ＋（時刻t2に
おけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）＋（実碍子の
時刻t1までの付着汚損量に対する減少量）の第８式に書
き直せる。ところで、実碍子１０の推測値とパイロット
碍子５の推測値との違いは、バイアス値であるA11 と、
A11 に対する雨洗効果による減少分が実碍子１０の推測
値には加わっている点である。すなわち、（実碍子１０
の推測値）＝（パイロット碍子５の推測値）＋A11 ＋
（A11 に対する減少量）となり、（A11 に対する減少
量）＝（実碍子１０の推測値）−（パイロット碍子５の
推測値）−A11 の第９式が得られる。これを第８式に代
入すると、（実碍子の汚損量）＝A11 ＋（時刻t2におけ
るパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）＋（実碍子１０の
推測値）−（パイロット碍子５の推測値）−A11 ＝（時
刻t2におけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）＋（実
碍子１０の推測値）−（パイロット碍子５の推測値）と
なり、（実碍子の汚損量）＝（気象データから計算によ
り求められる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍
子の汚損量実測値）−（気象データから計算により求め
られるパイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）の第１式に到達
する。[0015] (decrease amount with respect to adhesion soiling of the time t 1 after the pilot insulator) The seventh in Expressions (fouling amount increase amount of the pilot insulator from time t 1 to time t 2) + is at time t 2 because fouling amount measured value itself of the pilot insulator 5, the seventh equation (fouling amount of the actual insulator) = a 11 + (fouling amount measured value of the pilot insulator 5 at time t 2) + (the actual insulator time t 1 (The amount of decrease with respect to the amount of adhesion fouling up to the above) can be rewritten into the eighth formula. Meanwhile, the difference between the estimated value and the estimated value of the pilot insulator 5 of the actual insulator 10 includes a A 11 is a bias value,
The point that the decrease due to the rain washing effect on A 11 is added to the estimated value of the actual insulator 10. That is, (the actual insulator 10
The estimated value) = (estimated value of the pilot insulator 5) + A 11 +
Next (decrease amount with respect to A 11), (estimated value of the actual insulator 10) = (reduced weight with respect to A 11) - ninth Expressions -A 11 (estimated value of the pilot insulator 5) is obtained. By substituting this into Equation 8, (amount of contamination of actual insulator) = A 11 + (actual value of amount of contamination of pilot insulator 5 at time t 2 ) + (estimated value of actual insulator 10) − (estimation of pilot insulator 5) Value) −A 11 = (Measured value of contamination amount of pilot insulator 5 at time t 2 ) + (Estimated value of actual insulator 10) − (Estimated value of pilot insulator 5), (Effect amount of actual insulator) = (Meteorology) The first equation is obtained: (estimated value of pollution amount of actual insulator calculated from data) + (actual measured value of contamination amount of pilot insulator) − (estimated value of estimated contamination amount of pilot insulator calculated from weather data).
【００１６】従来は（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）
≠（実碍子の汚損量）ということが原因となって、実碍
子の汚損量推測値を補正する術がなかったのであるが、
本発明の第１式によれば気象データから実碍子の汚損量
推測値とパイロット碍子の汚損量推測値とを計算するこ
とにより暴露期間の差を取り込み、パイロット碍子の汚
損量実測値により合理的に実碍子の汚損量推測値の補正
を行い、汚損量の推測を行うことができる。このように
累積汚損の推測値を暴露期間の差を考慮しつつ破壊測定
値により補正することは、本発明により始めてなされた
ことである。Conventionally (actual measurement of contamination of pilot insulator)
≠ Because there was no way to correct the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator due to (the amount of contamination of the actual insulator),
According to the first formula of the present invention, the difference between the exposure periods is taken in by calculating the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator and the estimated value of the contamination amount of the pilot insulator from the weather data, and the ratio of the estimated contamination amount of the pilot insulator is calculated. Then, the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator is corrected, and the amount of contamination can be estimated. It is the first time according to the present invention to correct the estimated value of the accumulated fouling by the destruction measurement value in consideration of the difference in the exposure period.
【００１７】〔推測値の調整についての説明〕次に、実
碍子の汚損量推測値の調整法について説明する。まず上
記の補正の際に得られるパイロット碍子５に関する実績
データ、すなわちパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値とパ
イロット碍子５の汚損量推測値から、補正の度に回帰式
を求める。例えば１〜５回目の補正の際に得られた値が
表１の通りであったとする。[Explanation of Adjustment of Estimated Value] Next, a method of adjusting the estimated amount of contamination of the actual insulator will be described. First, a regression equation is determined for each correction from the actual data on the pilot insulator 5 obtained at the time of the above correction, that is, the actual measured value of the contamination amount of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated contamination amount of the pilot insulator 5. For example, it is assumed that the values obtained in the first to fifth corrections are as shown in Table 1.
【００１８】[0018]
【表１】 [Table 1]
【００１９】この場合、統計手法により回帰式（回帰直
線）を求めると、勾配ａ＝0.86111 、切片ｂ＝0.00004
となる。従って過去５回の補正の実績によれば0.86111
×（パイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）＋0.00004 の式に
よりパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値に近い値が得られ
る。なお、ｎ≧５でないと統計処理が不可能であるか
ら、本発明による推測値の調整は５回目以降の補正の際
に行うものとする。In this case, when a regression equation (regression line) is obtained by a statistical method, a gradient a = 0.86111 and an intercept b = 0.00044.
Becomes Therefore, according to the past five corrections, 0.86111
A value close to the actual measured value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator can be obtained by the equation of × (estimated value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator) +0.00004. Since statistical processing is not possible unless n ≧ 5, the adjustment of the estimated value according to the present invention is performed at the time of the fifth or subsequent correction.
【００２０】このようにして求められた回帰式はパイロ
ット碍子に関するものであるが、本発明では実碍子につ
いても同一の回帰式を適用して次回の実碍子の推測値の
調整を行う。すなわち、（実碍子の推測値の調整値）＝
0.86111 ×（実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋0.00004 の第10
式を用い、前記の第１式により得られた実碍子の汚損量
推測値を調整する。The regression equation obtained in this way is for the pilot insulator. In the present invention, the same regression equation is applied to the actual insulator, and the estimated value of the next actual insulator is adjusted. That is, (adjusted value of the estimated value of the actual insulator) =
0.86111 × (estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator) + 10th of 0.00004
Using the equation, the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator obtained by the first equation is adjusted.
【００２１】またパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値とパ
イロット碍子５の汚損量推測値から、公知の統計手法に
より95％信頼幅を求める。信頼幅導出式は公知であるか
ら詳細は省略するが、95％信頼幅＝実碍子の汚損量推測
値の調整値±ｆ（調整前の推測値、調整後の推測値）の
式で表される。この信頼幅により、回帰式により調整さ
れた実碍子の汚損量の推測値の精度を表すことができ
る。Further, a 95% confidence width is obtained by a well-known statistical method from the measured value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator 5. Since the confidence width derivation formula is publicly known, details thereof are omitted, but it is expressed by an equation of 95% confidence width = adjusted value of estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator ± f (estimated value before adjustment, estimated value after adjustment). You. This confidence width can indicate the accuracy of the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation.
【００２２】この結果、実碍子の汚損量推測値について
はパイロット碍子５を用いた補正をかけない期間には、
過去の実績より第10式を用いて平均的な暫定補正＝調整
ができ、かつ推測値の信頼幅を求めることができる。た
だし調整率（第10式の0.86111 や0.00004 の値）および
95％信頼幅の式中のｆは、パイロット碍子５の汚損量実
測値とパイロット碍子５の推測値が増加すれば更に信頼
性の高い内容を得ることができる。そこで本発明では補
正の度に回帰式を求め、これを次回の実碍子の汚損量の
推測値の調整に用いることを繰り返す。このようにして
測定を繰り返すごとに動的に回帰式を見直し、精度を向
上させることが可能となる。またこれと同時に信頼幅を
求め、回帰式により調整された実碍子の汚損量の推測値
の精度を表すことができる。As a result, the estimated amount of contamination of the actual insulator is not corrected by using the pilot insulator 5 during the period.
Average provisional correction = adjustment can be performed using the tenth formula based on past results, and the confidence range of the estimated value can be obtained. However, the adjustment rate (values of 0.86111 and 0.00004 in equation 10) and
As for f in the equation of the 95% confidence width, more reliable contents can be obtained if the measured value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated value of the pilot insulator 5 increase. Therefore, in the present invention, a regression equation is obtained each time correction is performed, and the regression equation is repeatedly used for adjusting the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator next time. In this way, each time the measurement is repeated, the regression equation is dynamically reviewed, and the accuracy can be improved. At the same time, the confidence width is obtained, and the accuracy of the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation can be expressed.
【００２３】[0023]
【実施例】次の表２、表３に、本発明の方法により碍子
汚損量のシミュレーションを行った結果を示す。表中の
Ｐはパイロット碍子を、実は実碍子を意味する。単位は
いずれもmg/cm2である。EXAMPLES The following Tables 2 and 3 show the results of simulation of the amount of insulator fouling by the method of the present invention. P in the table means a pilot insulator, and actually means an actual insulator. The unit is mg / cm 2 .
【００２４】[0024]
【表２】 [Table 2]
【００２５】[0025]
【表３】 [Table 3]
【００２６】[0026]
【発明の効果】以上に説明したように、本発明によれば
パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値を利用して気象データに
よる碍子汚損量の推測値を合理的に補正して推測を行
い、しかも補正により得られる実績データから実碍子の
汚損量推測値を補正の度に動的に調整することにより精
度を自動的に向上させ、推測式の妥当性を評価すること
ができる等の利点がある。As described above, according to the present invention, the estimated value of the insulator contamination amount based on the weather data is rationally corrected and estimated by using the actual measured value of the contamination amount of the pilot insulator. By dynamically adjusting the estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator from the actual data obtained by the above every time correction is performed, the accuracy can be automatically improved, and the validity of the estimation formula can be evaluated.
【図１】本発明の装置の構成を示すブロック図である。FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an apparatus of the present invention.
【図２】実施例における汚損量の変化を示すグラフであ
る。FIG. 2 is a graph showing a change in the amount of fouling in the example.
１ 気象データ観測手段、２ 風向風速計、３ 雨量
計、４ 洗浄式の汚損量測定手段、５ パイロット碍
子、６ 演算手段、７ 記憶手段、８ 入力手段、９
表示手段、１０ 実碍子1 Meteorological data observing means, 2 Anemometer, 3 Rain gauge, 4 Washing type fouling measuring means, 5 Pilot insulator, 6 Computing means, 7 Storage means, 8 Input means, 9
Display means, 10 insulator
Claims (4)
碍子の汚損量推測値を、パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値
と気象データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子
の汚損量推測値を用いて補正して実碍子の汚損量の推測
を行い、この際に得られるパイロット碍子に関する実績
データから補正の度に回帰式を求め、この回帰式を次回
の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整に用いることを繰り返
す動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測方法。An estimated pollution amount of an actual insulator obtained by calculation from weather data is corrected by using an actual measured value of the pollution amount of a pilot insulator and an estimated amount of pollution of the pilot insulator obtained by calculation from weather data. Estimate the amount of insulator contamination, find a regression equation for each correction from the actual data on the pilot insulator obtained at this time, and repeatedly use this regression equation to adjust the estimated value of the next actual insulator contamination amount A method for estimating insulator fouling with dynamic adjustment.
の推測値の精度を、信頼幅により表す請求項１記載の動
的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測方法。2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the accuracy of the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation is represented by a confidence width.
量）＝（気象データから計算により求められる実碍子の
汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−
（気象データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子
の汚損量推測値）の式により行う請求項１記載の動的調
整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測方法。(3) Correction of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator is performed by ((the amount of contamination of the actual insulator) = (estimated value of the amount of contamination of the actual insulator obtained by calculation from weather data) + (actual value of the amount of contamination of the pilot insulator)
2. The method for estimating an insulator contamination amount with dynamic adjustment according to claim 1, wherein the method is performed by an equation (estimated value of a contamination amount of a pilot insulator obtained by calculation from weather data).
タ観測手段と、洗浄方式によりパイロット碍子の汚損量
を実測する測定手段と、演算手段と、記憶手段とを備
え、この演算手段は、観測された気象データから計算に
より実碍子の汚損量とパイロット碍子の汚損量を計算
し、それらの推測値とパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値と
に基づいて実碍子の汚損量を補正して推測値を求める機
能と、補正により得られる実績データから補正の度に回
帰式を求めて記憶手段に記憶させ、これを次回の実碍子
の汚損量の推測値の調整に用いる機能とを有するもので
ある動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測装置。4. A weather data observing means capable of measuring a wind direction, a wind speed and a rainfall amount, a measuring means for actually measuring a pollution amount of a pilot insulator by a washing method, an arithmetic means, and a storage means, wherein the arithmetic means comprises an observation means. Calculate the actual insulator pollution amount and pilot insulator pollution amount by calculation from the obtained weather data, and correct the estimated value by correcting the actual insulator contamination amount based on the estimated value and the pilot insulator contamination measurement value. A function to determine the regression equation from the actual data obtained by the correction and to store the regression equation in the storage means, and to use the regression equation to adjust the estimated value of the contamination amount of the actual insulator next time. For estimating the amount of insulator fouling accompanied by dynamic adjustment.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| JPH10188701A true JPH10188701A (en) | 1998-07-21 |
| JP3410622B2 JP3410622B2 (en) | 2003-05-26 |
Family
ID=18405463
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A Expired - Lifetime JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
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| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| JP (1) | JP3410622B2 (en) |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105092797A (en) * | 2015-08-28 | 2015-11-25 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司 | Crystal mirror face reflectivity photo sensor-based insulator filthy degree monitoring system and method |
-
1996
- 1996-12-27 JP JP34969296A patent/JP3410622B2/en not_active Expired - Lifetime
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105092797A (en) * | 2015-08-28 | 2015-11-25 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司 | Crystal mirror face reflectivity photo sensor-based insulator filthy degree monitoring system and method |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| JP3410622B2 (en) | 2003-05-26 |
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