JP4413202B2 - Dam basin snow amount estimation device, dam inflow water amount estimation device and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a dam basin snow amount estimation device, a dam inflow water amount estimation device, and a program, and in particular, to estimate the amount of snow and dam inflow water in a dam basin based on snow accumulation data in a limited number of predetermined locations. The present invention relates to an apparatus and a program that can perform the above.

  In order to estimate the amount of dam inflow water by conventional snow cover, snow depth, coverage and snow density are measured at multiple measurement points, and based on these values, average snow cover, cover, snow The density was estimated, and the total amount of snow in each basin was estimated to estimate the total amount of snow in the basin, and the total amount of snow was multiplied by the inflow rate. Conventionally, such processing is generally performed by an operator by obtaining and calculating each data.

  As an apparatus for automatically and accurately estimating the amount of snow, Patent Document 1 discloses that snow data is generated based on the snow information in the snow amount measurement area, and the snow amount data, the snow amount measurement area, and the adjacent snow amount. A multiple regression analysis is performed using a group of explanatory variables with the 1 / nth power (n> 1) of each average elevation value of the estimation target area as one explanatory variable. Describes a device that obtains a multiple regression coefficient from the calculation coefficient and calculates (estimates) the amount of snow in that area from the multiple regression coefficient and the explanatory variable group of the snow coverage estimation area.

Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 06-301669

  However, the above-described estimation by manual work has a problem that personal estimation of the worker enters and cannot always be objectively estimated. Moreover, in the thing of patent document 1, a process is complicated and there exists a problem that the amount of snowfall cannot be estimated unless special software is used.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a dam basin snow amount estimation device, a dam inflow water amount estimation device, and a program capable of estimating the snow accumulation amount and the dam inflow water amount in a dam basin with a simple process.

The present invention includes a processor for executing information processing, means for inputting snow cover data including snow amount and snow quality at a plurality of measurement points arranged in a target dam basin, and the processor Refer to the database that defines and stores the amount of snow in the basin classified by elevation based on the altitude basin, in relation to the amount of snow at the one or more measurement points, and based on the amount of snow at the measurement points Means for estimating the amount of snow accumulation in each basin according to elevation, and the processor defines and stores the snow density of the basin according to elevation in relation to the snow quality of each month in each year, reference means for estimating the snow density of each of the elevation by basin, a database wherein the processor is defined to store the coverage is snow cover to the area of the elevations each region in relation to the snowfall and snow And means for estimating the coverage of each of the elevation by basin based on the estimated amount of snow and the inputted snow, the processor, and the estimated and the area for each individual of the altitude by basin Means for calculating a product of the amount of snow cover, the estimated snow density and the estimated coverage, and estimating a total snow mass of each basin according to each altitude with the sum of the calculated values of each basin according to each altitude A dam basin snow cover estimation device comprising:

The present invention also defines a dam basin snow amount estimation program for causing a computer to execute the above various means.

The present invention also includes a dam basin snow amount estimation device according to claim 1 and means for calculating a dam inflow water amount value by multiplying a total snow mass obtained by the dam basin snow amount estimation device by a predetermined coefficient ; And a dam inflow water amount estimation program for causing a computer to execute these various means.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate the amount of snow and dam inflow water in a dam basin with a simple process, and easily estimate the amount of snow in the dam basin and the amount of dam inflow using a spreadsheet software on a personal computer. There is an effect that can be done.

  The best mode for carrying out the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of the dam inflow water amount estimation device. The functional block diagram represents, as functions, various processes executed by hardware resources such as a processor and work memory included in the personal computer in accordance with a computer program installed in a computer (not shown) such as a personal computer.

  The dam inflow estimation device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a data input unit 11 for inputting snow cover data including a snow cover amount from a measurement point arranged in a target dam basin, and a dam basin based on an altitude region in advance. A snow amount estimating unit 12 for estimating the snow amount of the basin classified by elevation based on the snow data at the measurement point; a snow density estimating unit 13 for estimating the snow density from the snow quality data estimated from the history of the snow; Coverage estimator 14 for estimating the coverage that is the snow cover area relative to the basin area according to the altitude based on the snow quality data and the snow cover amount, and the snow of each basin according to the altitude from the values of the snow cover amount, the snow density, and the cover ratio A total snow mass estimation unit 15 that calculates mass and estimates the total snow mass of each basin according to elevation, and an inflow water amount estimation unit 16 that calculates a dam inflow water amount value from the total snow mass. The dam inflow estimation device 10 of the present embodiment also includes a database 17 relating to the amount of inflow water with respect to the past total snow cover, which is the basis for calculating the predetermined coefficient.

  FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the basin of the A reservoir (dam) which is the target of inflow water amount estimation. In the present embodiment, the amount of inflow water that will flow from snow in the basin S of the A reservoir at an altitude of about 450 m is estimated at the date and time of interest. In the present embodiment, the basin S is divided into altitude regions s1 to s12 every 50 m from 450 m to 1050 m. In this basin S, there are a ski resort 32 at an altitude of about 920 m, b ski resort 33 at an altitude of about 580 m, c ski resort 34 at an altitude of about 600 m, and d ski resort 35 at an altitude of about 530 m. Further, the snow cover data of these ski resorts can be obtained from the Internet 20 via the information provider 31.

  The total snow mass Ms in the basin S is such that when n is 1 to 12, the area of the region sn is An, the amount of snow is dn, the snow density is Dn, and the coverage Hn, Ms = Σ (An × dn × Dn × Hn). The amount of water flowing into the A reservoir is obtained by multiplying Ms by the water discharge rate w. Here, the water discharge rate w is the ratio of the amount of incoming water to the total snow mass, and is a value that depends on the topography, geology, snow condition, etc. of the basin, and is determined based on data acquired in the past in this embodiment. It is done.

  Each of these units 11 to 16, that is, the data input unit 11, the snow amount estimation unit 12, the snow density estimation unit 13, the coverage rate estimation unit 14, the total snow mass estimation unit 15, and the inflow water amount estimation unit 16 are actually This is realized by executing an execution procedure list in which spreadsheet software built in the personal computer is incorporated in advance.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an input screen of the dam incoming water amount estimation apparatus 10 shown in FIG. In addition to the values described above, the status of the A reservoir is entered on this input screen.

  In the dam incoming water amount estimation device 10, the data input unit 11 periodically accesses the information providing company 31 via the Internet 20 and acquires snow amount data of the ski resorts 32 to 35. As a result, the amount of snow at a predetermined date and time (in the present embodiment, 3:00 on March 31, 2005) of each ski resort 32 to 35 is input. At this time, if the ski resort is not in operation, it is also possible to obtain data on the amount of snow by inputting data of another predetermined ski resort and multiplying by a correction coefficient. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, snow cover data of the e-ski resort 37 can be referred to as a reference link. Further, the snow cover information can be obtained from the weather stations 37 in addition to the ski resort.

  In the present embodiment, the snow quality of the snow is input. This snow quality is selected and input from the drop-down. In the present embodiment, the following rules are followed depending on the state of the ski resort. This input may be automatically input based on the input snow cover information.

If more than 3 places have snowed the previous day or without snow on the previous day: Fresh snow If more than 2 places have the previous snow and snow has increased: Fresh snow + Simari Salame If more than 2 places have the previous snow and snowfall has decreased or the same Next, the snow amount estimating unit 12 estimates the snow amount in each of the altitude regions s1 to s12 described above based on the snow cover data of each ski resort. These estimations are determined based on snow cover data that have been measured and accumulated in the past. In the present embodiment, as shown in the snow cover column in the database 17 shown in FIG. 4, the snow cover amount of a predetermined ski resort is extracted from each ski resort and multiplied by a predetermined constant to obtain the snow cover amount.

That is,
s1 ... 450-500: Average snow cover amount of b, c, d x 0.4
s2 ... 500 to 550: average snow cover amount of b, c, d × 0.6
s3 ... 550-600: Average snow cover of b, c, d x 0.8
s4... 600 to 650: average snow cover amount of b, c, d s5... 650 to 700: average snow cover amount of b, c, d × 1.2
s6... 700 to 750: Average snow cover amount of a, b, c, d s7... 750 to 800: Average snow cover amount of a, b, c s8 ... 800 to 850: Average snow cover amount of a, b, c × 1.1
s9 ... 850-900: Average snow cover of a, b, c x 1.2
s10 ... 900-950: Average snow cover amount of a, b, c x 1.3
s11 ... 950-1,000: Average snow cover of a, b, c x 1.4
s12 ... 1,000 ~ 1,050: Average snow cover of a, b, c x 1.5
It becomes.

  Next, the snow density estimation unit 13 estimates the snow density in each region based on the time stored in the database 17 and the value depending on the difference in snow quality. Here, the snow density is recorded in the database 17 according to the snow quality and altitude (every 50 m) of each month in each year, and is set by selecting or automatically selecting snow density values that meet these conditions. The

Further, the coverage rate estimation unit 14 estimates the coverage rate. The coverage is a numerical value of 0 to 1, and in the present embodiment, the coverage is estimated as follows based on the data stored in the database 17 shown in FIG.
s1:
Fresh snow or fresh snow + simari salamé: Average snowfall <5cm = 0.7, 5-10cm = 0.85, 10cm or more = 1.0, Simali salamage: average snow 10cm = 0.7, less than 10-15cm = 0.85, 15cm or more = 1.0
s2:
Fresh snow or fresh snow + simari salamé: Average snow cover less than 10cm = 0.7, less than 10-15cm = 0.85, 15cm or more = 1.0;
s3:
Fresh snow or fresh snow + simari salamé: average snow cover less than 15cm = 0.7, less than 15-20cm = 0.85, 20cm or higher = 1.0
s4:
Average snowfall Less than 20cm = 0.7, less than 20-25cm = 0.85, more than 25cm = 1.0
s5:
Average snowfall Less than 20cm = 0.7, less than 20-25cm = 0.85, more than 25cm = 1.0
s6:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s7:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s8:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s9:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s10:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s11:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
s12:
Average snowfall Less than 25cm = 0.8, less than 25-30cm = 0.9, 30cm or more = 1.0
Then, the total snow mass estimation unit 15 multiplies each altitude region area, the above snow amount, the snow density, and the coverage to calculate the snow mass in each altitude region, and sums these values to obtain a total. Estimate snow mass.

  Further, in the present embodiment, the inflow water amount estimation unit 16 estimates the inflow water amount to the A reservoir by multiplying the total snow mass by the water discharge rate. Here, the water discharge rate is determined based on data acquired in the past in the present embodiment, and in this case, it is calculated as 0.7 in which the entire area is constant. In this example, the water discharge rate is constant in the entire altitude region, but this value may be appropriately selected depending on the altitude.

  By performing the above processing, as shown in FIG. 5, snow cover, density, coverage, water discharge rate, and the situation of the A reservoir at 0:00 today and the estimated total snow cover amount of the A reservoir (expected remaining snow amount) The current water storage amount and its total are displayed.

  FIG. 6 shows a graph comparing the expected inflow amount (inflow water amount) of the A reservoir and the actual inflow amount. According to FIG. 6, it can be seen that the expected inflow and the actual inflow are substantially the same, and the cumulative inflow is in good agreement with the expected amount and the actual amount.

  Therefore, according to the present embodiment, the dam basin snowfall amount and the dam inflow amount can be obtained simply by inputting the snow accumulation data of the dam basin and the snowfall amount of the dam basin by inputting snow accumulation data such as several ski resorts. Can be accurately predicted.

  The formulas and judgments used in the snow accumulation estimation unit 12, the snow density estimation unit 13, the coverage rate estimation unit 14, the total snow mass estimation unit 15 and the inflow water amount estimation unit 16 are based on the conditions of the reservoir to be predicted. Need to be determined. In the above example, data that is manually input can be automatically input, or input to output can be automatically performed at a predetermined time.

It is a functional block diagram of the dam inflow water amount estimation apparatus which shows one Embodiment of this invention. It is a schematic diagram which shows the basin of the dam used as the object of inflow water amount estimation. It is a schematic diagram which shows the input state of the inflow water amount estimation apparatus shown in FIG. It is a schematic diagram which shows the database which defined the snow accumulation amount, the snow density, the coverage, and the water discharge rate of the inflow water amount estimation apparatus shown in FIG. It is a schematic diagram which shows the output state of the inflow water amount estimation apparatus shown in FIG. It is a graph which shows the performance of the inflow water quantity estimation apparatus shown in FIG.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Dam water intake amount estimation apparatus 11 ... Data input part 12 ... Snow amount estimation part 13 ... Snow density estimation part 13 ... Snow density estimation part 14 ... Coverage rate estimation part 15 ... Total snow mass estimation part 16 ... Inflow water quantity estimation part

Claims (4)

A processor that executes information processing;
It said processor includes means for inputting a snow data including snowfall and snow quality at a plurality of measurement points arranged on the dam basin of interest,
The processor refers to a database that defines and stores the snow cover amount of the basin classified by elevation based on the altitude region in relation to the snow cover amount of the one or two or more measurement points in advance , and Means for estimating the amount of snow in each of the basins classified by elevation based on the amount of snow
Means for estimating the snow density of each basin according to elevation by referring to a database in which the processor defines and stores the snow density of the basin according to elevation in relation to the snow quality of each month in each year ;
The processor refers to a database that defines and stores a coverage, which is a snow cover area with respect to the area of the altitude-specific area, in relation to a snow cover amount and a snow quality, and determines the estimated snow cover amount and the input snow quality. Means for estimating the coverage of each individual basin according to elevation, based on :
The processor calculates a value of the product of the area, the estimated amount of snow, the estimated snow density, and the estimated coverage for each of the basins classified by elevation, and the calculated basins classified by elevation Means for estimating the total snow mass of each basin according to the elevation with the sum of the values of
A dam basin snow cover estimation device comprising: Installed on a computer,
A function for inputting snow cover data including snow amount and snow quality at a plurality of measurement points arranged in the dam basin of interest ;
Refer to a database that defines and stores the amount of snow in the basin classified by elevation in relation to the amount of snow at one or more measurement points in advance, and the amount of snow at the measurement point a function of estimating the snowfall each of said elevation by basin based,
Snow density of the elevation by basin with reference to the database to define and stored in relation to the snow in each month of each year, the function of estimating the snow density of each of the elevation by basin,
With reference to a database that defines and stores the coverage, which is the snow cover area with respect to the area of each altitude region, in relation to the snow cover amount and the snow quality, the individual coverage based on the estimated snow cover amount and the input snow quality A function of estimating the coverage of the basin according to elevation ,
Calculate the product of the area, the estimated amount of snow, the estimated snow density, and the estimated coverage for each of the basins classified by elevation, and the sum of the calculated values of the basins classified by elevation a function of estimating the total snow mass of each elevation by basin with a,
Dam basin snow cover estimation program. The dam basin snow cover estimation device according to claim 1 ,
Means for calculating a dam inflow water amount value by multiplying a total snow mass obtained by the dam basin snow amount estimation device by a predetermined coefficient ;
A dam inflow water amount estimation device characterized by comprising: It is installed in a computer together with the dam basin snow cover estimation program according to claim 2 ,
A function of calculating a dam inflow water amount value by multiplying a total snow mass obtained by the dam basin snow amount estimation device according to claim 1 by a predetermined coefficient ,
Dam inflow water estimation program.

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