JP3410622B2 - Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment - Google Patents
Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustmentInfo
- Publication number
- JP3410622B2 JP3410622B2 JP34969296A JP34969296A JP3410622B2 JP 3410622 B2 JP3410622 B2 JP 3410622B2 JP 34969296 A JP34969296 A JP 34969296A JP 34969296 A JP34969296 A JP 34969296A JP 3410622 B2 JP3410622 B2 JP 3410622B2
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- Prior art keywords
- amount
- insulator
- pollution
- actual
- pilot
- Prior art date
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- Insulators (AREA)
- Testing Or Calibration Of Command Recording Devices (AREA)
- Testing Of Devices, Machine Parts, Or Other Structures Thereof (AREA)
Description
【０００１】[0001]
【発明の属する技術分野】本発明は、動的調整を伴う碍
子汚損量の推測方法及び装置に関するものである。BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and apparatus for estimating the amount of insulator fouling accompanied by dynamic adjustment.
【０００２】[0002]
【従来の技術】碍子の表面が塩分により汚損されるとそ
の沿面絶縁特性が低下するため、電力の安定供給のため
には碍子汚損量を正確に把握することが必要である。こ
のため、実碍子を模擬したパイロット碍子を変電所等に
設置しておき、その表面を定期的に筆洗いにより洗浄し
て汚損量（塩分付着量）を測定する筆洗い法や、超音波
洗浄して汚損量を測定する超音波洗浄法が従来から広く
実施されている。2. Description of the Related Art When a surface of an insulator is polluted by salt, its creeping insulation characteristics are deteriorated. Therefore, it is necessary to accurately grasp the amount of polluted insulator for stable power supply. For this reason, a pilot insulator that simulates a real insulator is installed in a substation, etc., and the surface is regularly cleaned by brush washing to measure the amount of stains (salt content), and ultrasonic cleaning. The ultrasonic cleaning method for measuring the amount of stains has been widely practiced.
【０００３】これらのパイロット碍子を用いた碍子汚損
量の測定方法は、高精度で信頼性の高い測定が可能な利
点がある。ところがこれらの方法は、測定の都度パイロ
ット碍子表面のそれまでの付着汚損物を洗浄してしまう
破壊測定法であるため、このような洗浄の行われない実
碍子とパイロット碍子との汚損物の付着状態が異なって
しまう。このため、パイロット碍子自体の汚損量の測定
は正確に行えても実碍子の汚損量を表したものとはいえ
ない。The method for measuring the amount of polluted insulator using these pilot insulators has the advantage that highly accurate and highly reliable measurement is possible. However, since these methods are destructive measurement methods in which the adhered contaminants on the surface of the pilot insulator are washed each time the measurement is performed, the adherence of contaminants between the actual insulator and the pilot insulator, which is not cleaned in this way, is performed. The state will be different. Therefore, even if the pollution amount of the pilot insulator itself can be accurately measured, it cannot be said that the pollution amount of the actual insulator is represented.
【０００４】一方、碍子汚損量に最も大きく影響する風
向、風速、雨量等の気象データに基づいて、碍子汚損量
を計算する方法も知られている。この方法で用いられる
気象データは連続的に得られるため、碍子汚損量の経時
変化を把握することができる。しかし、このような気象
データによる計算は適当な補正を加えないと次第に誤差
が累積され、信頼性の低い推測値しか得ることができな
いという問題がある。On the other hand, there is also known a method of calculating the amount of polluted insulators based on meteorological data such as wind direction, wind speed, and rainfall, which have the greatest effect on the amount of polluted insulators. Since the meteorological data used in this method is obtained continuously, it is possible to grasp the change over time in the amount of insulator fouling. However, the calculation using such meteorological data has a problem in that errors are gradually accumulated unless an appropriate correction is made, and only an estimated value with low reliability can be obtained.
【０００５】このために、気象データによる碍子汚損量
の推測値をパイロット碍子を用いた実測値により定期的
に補正することが望ましい。しかし、両者は元々測定対
象となる暴露期間が異なるため、推測値を実測値により
補正することは困難である。従って、従来は両方の数値
を併記してオペレータが判断する方法や、パイロット碍
子の暴露期間を長く取り、その実測値で割り切って推測
値を補正する方法が取られてきた。しかし前者の方法は
判断に個人差があり、また後者の方法は暴露期間の差を
無視した本質的な矛盾があるうえ、補正のインターバル
が長くなるためにその間は信頼性の低い推測値に頼らざ
るを得ないという問題があった。For this reason, it is desirable to periodically correct the estimated value of the pollution amount of the insulator based on the meteorological data by the actual measurement value using the pilot insulator. However, it is difficult to correct the estimated value based on the actual measurement value because the exposure period for which the two are originally measured is different. Therefore, conventionally, a method has been adopted in which both numerical values are written together so that the operator can make a judgment, or a method in which the pilot insulator is exposed for a long period of time and the estimated value is corrected by dividing it by the measured value. However, the former method has individual differences in judgment, and the latter method has an inherent contradiction that ignores the difference in exposure period, and the correction interval is long, so reliance on unreliable estimated values during that period is used. There was a problem that I had no choice.
【０００６】なお気象データによる碍子汚損量の推測式
は、従来から数年間の実績データの蓄積後に推測値と実
績データとを比較することによる見直しが行われてい
る。しかし数年間は修正なしのまま用いられており、そ
の間は推測式の妥当性に関する評価がなされておらず、
従って推測精度の向上も期待できないという問題もあっ
た。The formula for estimating the amount of insulator fouling based on meteorological data has been conventionally reviewed by comparing the estimated value with the actual data after accumulating the actual data for several years. However, it has been used without modification for several years, during which the validity of the inference formula has not been evaluated,
Therefore, there is also a problem that improvement of the estimation accuracy cannot be expected.
【０００７】[0007]
【発明が解決しようとする課題】本発明は上記した従来
の問題点を解決し、実碍子とは暴露期間の異なるパイロ
ット碍子の実測値を利用して気象データによる碍子汚損
量の推測値を合理的に補正して推測を行い、しかもその
推測値を測定の都度動的に調整してより精度の高い推測
を行えるようにした動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測方
法及び装置を提供するためになされたものである。DISCLOSURE OF THE INVENTION The present invention solves the above-mentioned conventional problems and rationalizes the estimated value of the insulator pollution amount based on the meteorological data by using the measured values of the pilot insulators whose exposure period is different from that of the actual insulators. To provide a method and apparatus for estimating the amount of polluted insulator with dynamic adjustment that dynamically corrects the estimated value and dynamically adjusts the estimated value each time the measurement is performed to enable more accurate estimation. It was done by.
【０００８】[0008]
【課題を解決するための手段】上記の課題を解決するた
めになされた本発明の動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測
方法は、実碍子の汚損量の推測を、（実碍子の汚損量）
＝（少なくとも風向風速計および雨量計より得た気象デ
ータから計算により求められる実碍子の汚損量推測値）
＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（前記気象デー
タから計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚損量推
測値）の式により行い、この際に得られるパイロット碍
子の汚損量実測値と汚損量推測値の実績データから前記
実碍子の汚損量の推測の度に、（パイロット碍子汚損量
実測値）＝ａ（パイロット碍子汚損量推測値）＋ｂの回
帰式を求め、この回帰式を適用して、（実碍子の汚損推
測値の調整値）＝ａ（実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋ｂによ
り、次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整に用いること
を繰り返す（ただし、この推測値の調整は５回目以降に
行うものとする）ことを特徴とするものである。また本
発明の動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測装置は、風向、
風速及び雨量を測定できる気象データ観測手段と、洗浄
方式によりパイロット碍子の汚損量を実測する測定手段
と、演算手段と、記憶手段とを備え、この演算手段は、
観測された風向、風速及び雨量の気象データから計算に
より実碍子の汚損量とパイロット碍子の汚損量を計算
し、それらの推測値とパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値と
に基づいて、（実碍子の汚損量）＝（少なくとも風向風
速計および雨量計より得た気象データから計算により求
められる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の
汚損量実測値）−（前記気象データから計算により求め
られるパイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）の式によって、
実碍子の汚損量を補正して推測値を求める機能と、その
際に得られるパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値と汚損量推
測値の実績データから前記実碍子の汚損量の推測の度
に、（パイロット碍子汚損量実測値）＝ａ×（パイロッ
ト碍子汚損量推測値）＋ｂの回帰式を求めて記憶手段に
記憶させ、この回帰式を適用して、（実碍子の汚損推測
値の調整値）＝ａ×（実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋ｂの式
を、次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整に用いる（た
だし、この推測値の調整は５回目以降に行うものとす
る）機能とを有するものであることを特徴とするもので
ある。Means for Solving the Problems In order to solve the above problems, the method of estimating the pollution amount of insulators with dynamic adjustment of the present invention is based on the estimation of the pollution amount of actual insulators (the pollution amount of actual insulators). )
= (At least estimated fouling amount of actual insulator obtained by calculation from meteorological data obtained from wind anemometer and rain gauge)
+ (Measured value of pollution amount of pilot insulator)-(estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from the meteorological data), and measured value of pollution amount of pilot insulator and estimated value of pollution amount obtained at this time Each time the fouling amount of the actual insulator is estimated from the actual data of, the regression formula of (pilot insulator fouling amount actual measurement value) = a (pilot insulator fouling amount estimated value) + b is obtained, and this regression formula is applied, ( The adjustment value of the estimated contamination value of the actual insulator) = a (estimated value of the actual contamination amount of the insulator) + b is used to repeat the adjustment of the estimated value of the actual contamination amount of the actual insulator (however, adjustment of this estimated value is After the 5th time
It should be done) . Further, the estimation device of the insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment of the present invention, the wind direction,
Meteorological data observing means capable of measuring wind speed and rainfall, measuring means for actually measuring the amount of pollution of the pilot insulator by a cleaning method, computing means, and storage means, the computing means
Calculate the pollution amount of the actual insulator and the pollution amount of the pilot insulator by calculation from the meteorological data of the observed wind direction, wind speed and rainfall, and based on these estimated values and the actual measurement value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator, Pollution amount) = (at least estimated pollution amount of actual insulator calculated from meteorological data obtained from wind anemometer and rain gauge) + (measured actual pollution amount of pilot insulator)-(calculated from the above meteorological data) Estimated pollution amount of pilot insulator)
The function to calculate the estimated value by correcting the pollution amount of the actual insulator, and the estimated amount of pollution of the actual insulator from the actual data of the actual measured amount of pollution of the pilot insulator and the actual data of the estimated amount of pollution obtained at that time ( Measured value of pilot insulator fouling amount) = a × (estimated value of pilot insulator fouling amount) + b is calculated and stored in the storage means, and this regression formula is applied (adjusted value of estimated fouling value of actual insulator). = A × (estimated amount of pollution of actual insulator) + b formula is used for the next adjustment of the estimated amount of contamination of actual insulator (
However, this estimated value should be adjusted after the fifth time.
That) is characterized in that and a function.
【０００９】[0009]
【発明の実施の形態】以下に本発明の具体的な内容を、
図面を参照しつつ詳細に説明する。図１は本発明の装置
の構成を示すブロック図であり、１は気象データ観測手
段であり、少なくとも風向風速計２と雨量計３とを備え
ている。４はパイロット碍子５を備えた洗浄式の汚損量
の測定手段であり、所定のインターバルでパイロット碍
子５の汚損量を実測することができるものである。６は
演算手段、７は記憶手段、８はキーボード等の入力手
段、９はＣＲＴ等の表示手段である。BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION The concrete contents of the present invention will be described below.
A detailed description will be given with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the apparatus of the present invention. Reference numeral 1 is a meteorological data observation means, which is provided with at least a wind direction anemometer 2 and a rain gauge 3. Reference numeral 4 denotes a cleaning type contamination amount measuring means provided with the pilot insulator 5, which can measure the contamination amount of the pilot insulator 5 at predetermined intervals. 6 is a calculation means, 7 is a storage means, 8 is an input means such as a keyboard, and 9 is a display means such as a CRT.
【００１０】演算手段６は気象データ観測手段１により
観測された気象データから、計算により実碍子１０の汚
損量推測値とパイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値とを計算
する機能を持つ。この計算法自体は既知のものを利用す
ればよい。また演算手段６は、このようにして得られた
パイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値と、測定手段４により
得られたパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値とに基づい
て、気象データから計算により求められる実碍子１０の
汚損量推測値を補正し、実碍子１０の汚損量を推測する
機能を持つ。さらに演算手段６は、補正により得られる
実績データから補正の度に回帰式を求めて記憶手段７に
記憶させ、これを次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整
に用いる機能とを有する。以下にこれらの機能の詳細を
説明する。なお、図１に示すように演算手段６は測定手
段４に自動測定の起動トリガを送る。起動トリガは実碍
子１０の汚損量の推測値が一定値に達したときに測定す
るという設定値によるトリガや、１週間に測定するとい
う一定インターバルトリガ等が適当である。The calculation means 6 has a function of calculating the estimated pollution amount value of the actual insulator 10 and the estimated contamination amount value of the pilot insulator 5 from the meteorological data observed by the meteorological data observation means 1. The calculation method itself may be a known one. Further, the calculating means 6 is calculated from the meteorological data based on the estimated pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5 thus obtained and the measured actual pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5 obtained by the measuring means 4. It has a function of correcting the estimated contamination amount of the actual insulator 10 and estimating the amount of contamination of the actual insulator 10. Further, the calculation means 6 has a function of obtaining a regression equation from the actual result data obtained by the correction and storing it in the storage means 7, and using this for the next time adjustment of the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator. The details of these functions will be described below. As shown in FIG. 1, the calculation means 6 sends an automatic measurement start trigger to the measurement means 4. As the activation trigger, a trigger based on a set value that is measured when the estimated value of the pollution amount of the insulator 10 reaches a constant value, a constant interval trigger that measures within one week, and the like are suitable.
【００１１】本発明では、実碍子１０の汚損量推測値を
補正して実碍子１０の汚損量を推測するため、（実碍子
の汚損量）＝（気象データから計算により求められる実
碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測
値）−（気象データから計算により求められるパイロッ
ト碍子の汚損量推測値）の第１式により実碍子の汚損量
を補正し、推測値を得る。そこでまずこの式を導いた過
程を以下に詳細に説明する。なおこの第１式は、碍子汚
損の増加量は既付着汚損量と無関係であり、降雨による
碍子汚損量の減少は既付着汚損量にある割合を掛けた量
として計算できることを前提としている。この前提は業
界において技術常識とされているものである。[0011] In the present invention, order to infer fouling of to the actual insulator 10 corrects the stain amount estimation value of the actual insulator 10, (contamination amount of the actual insulator) = (actual insulator obtained by calculation from the weather data Estimated pollution amount) + (measured value of pollution amount of pilot insulator)-(estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator calculated from meteorological data) It Therefore, the process of deriving this formula will be described in detail below. This first formula is based on the premise that the increase amount of insulator fouling is unrelated to the existing fouling pollution amount, and the decrease of the insulator fouling amount due to rainfall can be calculated as a value obtained by multiplying the existing fouling pollution amount by a certain ratio. This premise is a common general knowledge in the industry.
【００１２】〔第１式の説明〕
まず図２に示すように、実碍子１０とパイロット碍子５
とがともに汚損量０の状態（時刻t０) からスタート
し、時刻t１になったとする。この段階では実碍子１０
とパイロット碍子５との暴露期間（時刻t０〜時刻t１)
は等しく、実碍子１０の汚損量推測値＝パイロット碍子
５の汚損量推測値となる。従って（実碍子の汚損量）＝
（気象データから計算により求められる実碍子の汚損量
推測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（気象
データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚損
量推測値）の第１式において右辺の第１項と第３項は相
殺され、（実碍子の汚損量A１１ ）＝（パイロット碍
子の汚損量実測値）となる。ただし、パイロット碍子５
はこの段階で汚損量０の状態に戻るので、実碍子１０と
は汚損量が異なることになる。[Explanation of Formula 1] First, as shown in FIG. 2, a real insulator 10 and a pilot insulator 5
It is assumed that both and start at time t1 when the pollution amount is 0 (time t0). At this stage, 10 real insulators
And pilot insulator 5 exposure period (time t0 to time t1)
Are equal to each other, and the estimated pollution amount of the actual insulator 10 = the estimated pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5. Therefore (amount of contamination of actual insulator) =
(Estimated fouling amount of actual insulator calculated from meteorological data) + (Actual measured fouling amount of pilot insulator)-(Estimated fouling amount of pilot insulator calculated from meteorological data) The first term and the third term are canceled out, and the result is (contamination amount A11 of actual insulator) = (measured value of contamination amount of pilot insulator). However, pilot insulator 5
At this stage, since the pollution amount returns to 0, the pollution amount is different from that of the actual insulator 10.
【００１３】次に時刻t１から時刻t２まで時間が進行し
た段階における実碍子の汚損量は、（実碍子の汚損量）
＝（時刻t１における実碍子１０の汚損量A１１）＋（時
刻t１から時刻t２までの実碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（時
刻t１から時刻t２までの実碍子の汚損量減少量）の第２
式として表すことができる。前記した前提の通り汚損量
増加量は既付着汚損量には無関係であるから実碍子１０
とパイロット碍子５間で差がなく、（時刻t１から時刻t
２までの実碍子の汚損量増加量）＝（時刻t１から時刻t
２までのパイロット碍子の汚損量増加量）の第３式が成
立する。これを第２式に代入すると、（実碍子の汚損
量）＝A１１ ＋（時刻t１から時刻t２までのパイロッ
ト碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（時刻t１から時刻t２までの
実碍子の汚損量減少量）の第４式となる。Next, the amount of contamination of the actual insulator at the stage when the time has progressed from time t1 to time t2 is (the amount of contamination of the actual insulator)
= (The amount of pollution A11 of the actual insulator 10 at the time t1) + (the amount of increase of the amount of actual insulator pollution from the time t1 to the time t2) + (the amount of decrease of the amount of actual insulator pollution from the time t1 to the time t2)
It can be expressed as an expression. As described above, the amount of increase in the amount of fouling is not related to the amount of fouling that has already adhered.
And there is no difference between the pilot insulator 5 (from time t1 to time t
Increase in pollution amount of actual insulators up to 2) = (time t1 to time t
The third equation up to the amount of pollution increase of the pilot insulator up to 2) is established. Substituting this into the second equation, (pollution amount of actual insulator) = A11 + (amount of increase in pollution amount of pilot insulator from time t1 to time t2) + (decrease in pollution amount of actual insulator from time t1 to time t2 It becomes the fourth formula of (quantity).
【００１４】この第４式中の、（時刻t１から時刻t２ま
での実碍子の汚損量減少量）は、前提により実碍子の既
付着汚損量×ある割合である。そして（実碍子の既付着
汚損量）＝A１１ ＋（実碍子の時刻t１以降の付着汚損
量）の第５式として表せるので、この第５式に第３式を
代入すると、（実碍子の既付着汚損量）＝A１１ ＋
（時刻t１以降のパイロット碍子の付着汚損量）の第６
式となる。従って、（時刻t１から時刻t２までの実碍子
の汚損量減少量）は、A１１ に対する減少量と、時刻t
１以降のパイロット碍子の付着汚損量に対する減少量と
に分けて考えることができる。よって第４式は、（実碍
子の汚損量）＝A１１ ＋（時刻t１から時刻t２までの
パイロット碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（A１１ に対する
減少量）＋（時刻t１以降のパイロット碍子の付着汚損
量に対する減少量）の第７式となる。In the fourth equation, (the amount of reduction in the amount of pollution of the actual insulator from time t1 to time t2) is, based on the premise, the amount of the attached pollution of the actual insulator × a certain ratio. And, since it can be expressed as a fifth equation of (amount of adhered pollution of the actual insulator) = A11 + (amount of adhered pollution of the actual insulator after time t1), substituting the third equation into this fifth formula gives Adhesion and fouling amount) = A11 +
6th of (amount of adhered and polluted pilot insulator after time t1)
It becomes an expression. Therefore, (the amount of reduction of the pollution amount of the actual insulator from time t1 to time t2) is the amount of reduction with respect to A11 and the time t
It can be considered separately as the amount of reduction after the amount of adhesion and fouling of the pilot insulator after 1. Therefore, the fourth formula is: (Amount of pollution of actual insulator) = A11 + (Amount of increase in pollution amount of pilot insulator from time t1 to time t2) + (Amount of decrease with respect to A11) + (Adhesion pollution of pilot insulator after time t1) It becomes the seventh formula of the decrease amount with respect to the amount).
【００１５】この第７式中の（時刻t１から時刻t２まで
のパイロット碍子の汚損量増加量）＋（時刻t１以降の
パイロット碍子の付着汚損量に対する減少量）は、時刻
t２におけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値そのもの
であるから、第７式は（実碍子の汚損量）＝A１１ ＋
（時刻t２におけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）
＋（実碍子の時刻t１までの付着汚損量に対する減少
量）の第８式に書き直せる。 ところで、実碍子１０の
推測値とパイロット碍子５の推測値との違いは、バイア
ス値であるA１１ と、A１１ に対する雨洗効果による
減少分が実碍子１０の推測値には加わっている点であ
る。すなわち、（実碍子１０の推測値）＝（パイロット
碍子５の推測値）＋A１１ ＋（A１１ に対する減少
量）となり、（A１１ に対する減少量）＝（実碍子１
０の推測値）−（パイロット碍子５の推測値）−A１１
の第９式が得られる。これを第８式に代入すると、
（実碍子の汚損量）＝A１１ ＋（時刻t２におけるパイ
ロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）＋（実碍子１０の推測
値）−（パイロット碍子５の推測値）−A１１ ＝（時
刻t２におけるパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値）＋
（実碍子１０の推測値）−（パイロット碍子５の推測
値）となり、（実碍子の汚損量）＝（気象データから計
算により求められる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋（パイロ
ット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（気象データから計算によ
り求められるパイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）の第１式
に到達する。In this formula 7, (the amount of increase in the amount of pollution of the pilot insulator from time t1 to time t2) + (the amount of decrease in the amount of adhered pollution of the pilot insulator after time t1) is
Since it is the actual measured value of the amount of pollution of the pilot insulator 5 at t2, the seventh formula is (the amount of pollution of the actual insulator) = A11 +
(Actual measured value of pollution of pilot insulator 5 at time t2)
It can be rewritten to the eighth equation of + (amount of decrease with respect to the amount of fouling adhered to the actual insulator by time t1) By the way, the difference between the estimated value of the actual insulator 10 and the estimated value of the pilot insulator 5 is that the bias value A11 and the decrease due to the rainwash effect on A11 are added to the estimated value of the actual insulator 10. . That is, (estimated value of actual insulator 10) = (estimated value of pilot insulator 5) + A11 + (reduction amount with respect to A11), and (reduction amount with respect to A11) = (reduced insulator 1)
Estimated value of 0)-(Estimated value of pilot insulator 5) -A11
Equation 9 is obtained. Substituting this into equation 8,
(Amount of pollution of actual insulator) = A11 + (Actual measured value of pollution of pilot insulator 5 at time t2) + (Estimated value of actual insulator 10)-(Estimated value of pilot insulator 5) -A11 = (Pilot insulator at time t2) Measured value of pollution amount of 5) +
(Estimated value of actual insulator 10)-(estimated value of pilot insulator 5), (contamination amount of actual insulator) = (estimated contamination amount value of actual insulator calculated by meteorological data) + (contamination amount of pilot insulator) The first formula of (measured value)-(estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from meteorological data) is reached.
【００１６】従来は（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）
≠（実碍子の汚損量）ということが原因となって、実碍
子の汚損量推測値を補正する術がなかったのであるが、
本発明の第１式によれば気象データから実碍子の汚損量
推測値とパイロット碍子の汚損量推測値とを計算するこ
とにより暴露期間の差を取り込み、パイロット碍子の汚
損量実測値により合理的に実碍子の汚損量推測値の補正
を行い、汚損量の推測を行うことができる。このように
累積汚損の推測値を暴露期間の差を考慮しつつ破壊測定
値により補正することは、本発明により始めてなされた
ことである。Conventionally (measured value of pollution amount of pilot insulator)
There was no way to correct the estimated value of the amount of pollution of the actual insulator due to the fact that ≠ (the amount of pollution of the actual insulator).
According to the first formula of the present invention, the difference between the exposure periods is taken in by calculating the estimated pollution amount of the actual insulator and the estimated pollution amount of the pilot insulator from the meteorological data, and it is rational based on the actual measured amount of pollution of the pilot insulator. It is possible to estimate the pollution amount by correcting the estimated pollution amount of the actual insulator. Thus, the correction of the estimated value of the cumulative fouling by the destruction measurement value in consideration of the difference in the exposure period is the first to be made by the present invention.
【００１７】〔推測値の調整についての説明〕
次に、実碍子の汚損量推測値の調整法について説明す
る。まず上記の補正の際に得られるパイロット碍子５に
関する実績データ、すなわちパイロット碍子５の汚損量
実測値とパイロット碍子５の汚損量推測値から、補正の
度に回帰式を求める。例えば１〜５回目の補正の際に得
られた値が表１の通りであったとする。[Description of Adjustment of Estimated Value] Next, an adjustment method of the estimated value of the amount of pollution of the actual insulator will be described. First, a regression equation is obtained for each correction from the actual data on the pilot insulator 5 obtained at the time of the above correction, that is, the actual measurement value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5. For example, it is assumed that the values obtained in the first to fifth corrections are as shown in Table 1.
【００１８】[0018]
【表１】 [Table 1]
【００１９】この場合、統計手法により回帰式（回帰直
線）を求めると、勾配ａ＝0.86111 、切片ｂ＝0.00004
となる。従って過去５回の補正の実績によれば0.86111
×（パイロット碍子の汚損量推測値）＋0.00004 の式に
よりパイロット碍子の汚損量実測値に近い値が得られ
る。なお、ｎ≧５でないと統計処理が不可能であるか
ら、本発明による推測値の調整は５回目以降の補正の際
に行うものとする。In this case, when a regression equation (regression straight line) is obtained by a statistical method, the gradient a = 0.86111, the intercept b = 0.00004.
Becomes Therefore, according to the past 5 corrections, 0.86111
A value close to the actual measured pollution amount of the pilot insulator can be obtained by the formula of × (estimated pollution amount of pilot insulator) + 0.00004. Since statistical processing is impossible unless n ≧ 5, the estimated value adjustment according to the present invention is performed during the fifth and subsequent corrections.
【００２０】このようにして求められた回帰式はパイロ
ット碍子に関するものであるが、本発明では実碍子につ
いても同一の回帰式を適用して次回の実碍子の推測値の
調整を行う。すなわち、（実碍子の推測値の調整値）＝
0.86111 ×（実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋0.00004 の第10
式を用い、前記の第１式により得られた実碍子の汚損量
推測値を調整する。The regression equation thus obtained relates to the pilot insulator, but in the present invention, the same regression equation is applied to the actual insulator to adjust the estimated value of the next actual insulator. That is, (adjusted value of estimated value of actual insulator) =
0.86111 x (estimated contamination amount of actual insulator) + 0.00004 10th
Using the formula, the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator obtained by the first formula is adjusted.
【００２１】またパイロット碍子５の汚損量実測値とパ
イロット碍子５の汚損量推測値から、公知の統計手法に
より95％信頼幅を求める。信頼幅導出式は公知であるか
ら詳細は省略するが、95％信頼幅＝実碍子の汚損量推測
値の調整値±ｆ（調整前の推測値、調整後の推測値）の
式で表される。この信頼幅により、回帰式により調整さ
れた実碍子の汚損量の推測値の精度を表すことができ
る。Further, the 95% confidence width is obtained by a known statistical method from the actual measurement value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator 5. Although the confidence width derivation formula is well known, details are omitted, but it is expressed by the formula of 95% confidence width = adjusted value ± f (estimated value before adjustment, estimated value after adjustment) of estimated value of pollution amount of actual insulator. It With this confidence width, the accuracy of the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation can be expressed.
【００２２】この結果、実碍子の汚損量推測値について
はパイロット碍子５を用いた補正をかけない期間には、
過去の実績より第10式を用いて平均的な暫定補正＝調整
ができ、かつ推測値の信頼幅を求めることができる。た
だし調整率（第10式の0.86111 や0.00004 の値）および
95％信頼幅の式中のｆは、パイロット碍子５の汚損量実
測値とパイロット碍子５の推測値が増加すれば更に信頼
性の高い内容を得ることができる。そこで本発明では補
正の度に回帰式を求め、これを次回の実碍子の汚損量の
推測値の調整に用いることを繰り返す。このようにして
測定を繰り返すごとに動的に回帰式を見直し、精度を向
上させることが可能となる。またこれと同時に信頼幅を
求め、回帰式により調整された実碍子の汚損量の推測値
の精度を表すことができる。As a result, the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator is not corrected using the pilot insulator 5 during the period.
From the past results, the average provisional correction = adjustment can be performed using the formula 10, and the confidence level of the estimated value can be obtained. However, the adjustment rate (value of 0.86111 or 0.00004 in the 10th formula) and
For f in the 95% confidence width formula, more reliable contents can be obtained if the actual measurement value of the amount of pollution of the pilot insulator 5 and the estimated value of the pilot insulator 5 increase. Therefore, in the present invention, a regression equation is calculated for each correction, and this is repeatedly used for the next adjustment of the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator. In this way, it is possible to dynamically review the regression equation each time the measurement is repeated and improve the accuracy. At the same time, the confidence width can be obtained and the accuracy of the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator adjusted by the regression equation can be expressed.
【００２３】[0023]
【実施例】次の表２、表３に、本発明の方法により碍子
汚損量のシミュレーションを行った結果を示す。表中の
Ｐはパイロット碍子を、実は実碍子を意味する。単位は
いずれもmg/cm2である。EXAMPLES The following Tables 2 and 3 show the results of simulating the amount of insulator fouling by the method of the present invention. P in the table means a pilot insulator, and actually means an insulator. All units are mg / cm 2 .
【００２３】[0023]
【表２】 [Table 2]
【００２４】[0024]
【表３】 [Table 3]
【００２５】[0025]
【発明の効果】以上に説明したように、本発明によれば
パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値を利用して気象データに
よる碍子汚損量の推測値を合理的に補正して推測を行
い、しかも補正により得られる実績データから実碍子の
汚損量推測値を補正の度に動的に調整することにより精
度を自動的に向上させ、推測式の妥当性を評価すること
ができる等の利点がある。As described above, according to the present invention, the estimated value of the pollution amount of the insulator based on the meteorological data is rationally corrected by using the actual measured value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator, and the correction is performed. There is an advantage that the accuracy can be automatically improved and the validity of the estimation formula can be evaluated by dynamically adjusting the estimated value of the pollution amount of the actual insulator from the actual result data obtained by
【図面の簡単な説明】[Brief description of drawings]
【図１】本発明の装置の構成を示すブロック図である。FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an apparatus of the present invention.
【図２】実施例における汚損量の変化を示すグラフであ
る。FIG. 2 is a graph showing changes in the amount of pollution in the example.
１ 気象データ観測手段、２ 風向風速計、３ 雨量
計、４ 洗浄式の汚損量測定手段、５ パイロット碍
子、６ 演算手段、７ 記憶手段、８ 入力手段、９
表示手段、１０ 実碍子1 Meteorological Data Observing Means, 2 Wind Direction Anemometers, 3 Rain Gauges, 4 Cleaning Type Fouling Amount Measuring Means, 5 Pilot Insulators, 6 Computing Means, 7 Storage Means, 8 Input Means, 9
Display means, 10 insulators
Claims (2)
損量）＝（少なくとも風向風速計および雨量計より得た
気象データから計算により求められる実碍子の汚損量推
測値）＋（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（前記気
象データから計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚
損量推測値）の式により行い、この際に得られるパイロ
ット碍子の汚損量実測値と汚損量推測値の実績データか
ら前記実碍子の汚損量の推測の度に、（パイロット碍子
汚損量実測値）＝ａ（パイロット碍子汚損量推測値）＋
ｂの回帰式を求め、この回帰式を適用して、（実碍子の
汚損推測値の調整値）＝ａ（実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋
ｂにより、次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値の調整に用い
ることを繰り返す（ただし、この推測値の調整は５回目
以降に行うものとする）ことを特徴とする動的調整を伴
う碍子汚損量の推測方法。1. The estimation of the amount of pollution of the actual insulator is calculated by ((the amount of pollution of the actual insulator)) = (at least the estimated value of the amount of pollution of the actual insulator obtained by calculation from the meteorological data obtained from the wind direction and anemometer) + ( Actual measurement of pollution amount of pilot insulator)-(Estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from the above-mentioned meteorological data), and actual measurement of pollution amount and estimated amount of pollution of pilot insulator obtained at this time Every time the pollution amount of the actual insulator is estimated from the data, (pilot insulator contamination amount actual measurement value) = a (pilot insulator contamination amount estimated value) +
Obtaining the regression equation of b, applying this regression equation, (adjusted value of estimated pollution value of actual insulator) = a (estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator) +
The b, repeating be used to adjust estimates of fouling of the next real-insulator (provided that the adjustment of the estimated value is fifth
A method for estimating the amount of insulator fouling with dynamic adjustment, which is characterized by the following.
ータ観測手段と、洗浄方式によりパイロット碍子の汚損
量を実測する測定手段と、演算手段と、記憶手段とを備
え、この演算手段は、観測された風向、風速及び雨量の
気象データから計算により実碍子の汚損量とパイロット
碍子の汚損量を計算し、それらの推測値とパイロット碍
子の汚損量実測値とに基づいて、（実碍子の汚損量）＝
（少なくとも風向風速計および雨量計より得た気象デー
タから計算により求められる実碍子の汚損量推測値）＋
（パイロット碍子の汚損量実測値）−（前記気象データ
から計算により求められるパイロット碍子の汚損量推測
値）の式によって、実碍子の汚損量を補正して推測値を
求める機能と、その際に得られるパイロット碍子の汚損
量実測値と汚損量推測値の実績データから前記実碍子の
汚損量の推測の度に、（パイロット碍子汚損量実測値）
＝ａ×（パイロット碍子汚損量推測値）＋ｂの回帰式を
求めて記憶手段に記憶させ、この回帰式を適用して、
（実碍子の汚損推測値の調整値）＝ａ×（実碍子の汚損
量推測値）＋ｂの式を、次回の実碍子の汚損量の推測値
の調整に用いる（ただし、この推測値の調整は５回目以
降に行うものとする）機能とを有するものであることを
特徴とする動的調整を伴う碍子汚損量の推測装置。2. A meteorological data observing means capable of measuring a wind direction, a wind speed and a rainfall amount, a measuring means for actually measuring a pollution amount of a pilot insulator by a cleaning method, a computing means, and a storing means, the computing means observing. Calculate the pollution amount of the actual insulator and the pollution amount of the pilot insulator by calculation from the meteorological data of the wind direction, wind speed and rainfall, and based on the estimated value and the measured value of the pollution amount of the pilot insulator, Amount) =
(At least estimated fouling amount of actual insulator calculated from meteorological data obtained from wind anemometer and rain gauge) +
(Actual measurement value of pollution amount of pilot insulator)-(Function to obtain estimated value by correcting the pollution amount of actual insulator by the formula of (Estimated value of pollution amount of pilot insulator obtained by calculation from the above-mentioned meteorological data)) Each time the pollution amount of the actual insulator is estimated from the actual data of the measured amount of pollution of the pilot insulator and the estimated value of the amount of pollution, (measured value of the amount of pollution of the pilot insulator)
= A × (pilot insulator fouling amount estimated value) + b, a regression equation is obtained and stored in the storage means, and this regression equation is applied,
(Adjustment value of estimated pollution value of actual insulator) = a x (estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator) + b is used for the next adjustment of estimated value of contamination amount of actual insulator (however, adjustment of this estimated value Is the fifth or later
A device for estimating the amount of insulator fouling with dynamic adjustment, which is characterized in that it has a function of (1 ) .
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
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| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| JPH10188701A JPH10188701A (en) | 1998-07-21 |
| JP3410622B2 true JP3410622B2 (en) | 2003-05-26 |
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ID=18405463
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|---|---|---|---|
| JP34969296A Expired - Lifetime JP3410622B2 (en) | 1996-12-27 | 1996-12-27 | Method and apparatus for estimating insulator fouling amount with dynamic adjustment |
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