JP7493470B2 - PLANNING DEVICE AND PLANNING METHOD - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a planning device and a planning method for creating plans for distributed power sources.

In the power transmission and distribution network, system operations include frequency control in the supply area and supply and demand balance adjustments to stabilize the system. In recent years, the spread of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power has made the system more susceptible to fluctuations in the supply and demand balance, and further system stabilization measures are expected to be required as renewable energy continues to become more widespread.

Regarding supply and demand balance adjustment, the recent electricity system reforms have led to the opening of supply and demand adjustment markets. In addition to using their own supply and demand adjustment facilities, general electricity transmission and distribution companies will be able to compensate for the supply and demand gap within their jurisdictions through the supply and demand adjustment market, and secure adjustment capacity (ΔkW + kWh) to respond to supply and demand fluctuations.

In addition, with the increase in distributed power sources such as solar power generation, the number of locations where the allowable current flowing through the power grid has reached a predetermined value is rapidly increasing. This has created a need for system countermeasures and equipment plans that do not exceed the allowable current values of the power grid, including reviewing and strengthening the equipment configuration in line with the diversification of power sources.

The following Patent Documents 1 to 3 disclose various conventional techniques related to equipment planning methods for power transmission and distribution networks that contribute to system stabilization. Patent Document 1 states, "We provide a support system that can determine conditions that satisfy those who wish to connect distributed power sources to a distribution network while stabilizing the quality of power supply." Patent Document 2 states, "We determine the optimal placement of storage devices that keep the voltage of the entire distribution system within an appropriate range and reduce distribution losses." Patent Document 3 states, "We make it possible to easily create equipment expansion plans that eliminate violations of feeder sending current constraints, section voltage constraints, and section current constraints to achieve an optimal system configuration without manual effort."

JP 2007-110809 A JP 2013-143839 A JP 2001-268793 A

Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2 are methods for determining the optimal placement of distributed power sources such as storage batteries, taking into account the allowable values of distribution lines and the suppression of distribution losses, in order to keep the voltage and current of a distribution system within an appropriate range. Patent Document 3 is a method for creating an equipment expansion plan for an optimal system configuration that resolves violations of the current/voltage allowable value constraints from among various construction proposals such as installing or dividing lines and installing a new SVR (Step Voltage Regulator).

However, these methods are based on the assumption that grid operators, such as electricity transmission and distribution companies, will implement grid stabilization measures such as equipment upgrades on their own, and do not take into consideration distribution grid measures, including the utilization of battery resources owned by consumers who are connected to the grid.

The purpose of the present invention is to improve the benefits to consumers of introducing storage batteries while reducing the costs of grid operators in implementing grid countermeasures.

The planning device according to one aspect of the invention disclosed in this application is a planning device that plans for a consumer's distributed power source, and includes a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program. The processor calculates an expected market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of adjustment capacity for a predicted value of supply and demand fluctuation in an area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past trading performance, performs an adjustment capacity value calculation process that calculates the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk due to reverse and forward currents based on the amount of renewable energy introduced in the area, the predicted value of supply and demand fluctuation in the area, and the tolerance values for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in the area, and executes a system countermeasure planning process that creates a deployment plan for the distributed power source based on the expected market value and the tolerance exceeding risk calculated by the adjustment capacity value calculation process.

According to a representative embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to reduce grid countermeasure and operation costs for electricity transmission and distribution companies while improving the benefits of introducing storage batteries to consumers. Issues, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be made clear through the explanation of the following examples.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a first example of relationships between stakeholders regarding facility planning by a planning device. FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing a second example of relationships between stakeholders regarding facility planning by the planning device. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing relationships between stakeholders regarding operation planning by the planning device. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a planning system according to the present embodiment. FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a computer. FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the planning device. FIG. 7 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the adjustment power value calculation unit. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the amount of renewable energy power introduced in an area. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of area demand actual/predicted values. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of period weather actual/forecast values. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of intra-area bid power source information. FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the distribution facility adjustment capability. FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of past market trading results. FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the adjustment capacity market value calculation result. FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a distribution facility allowable value. FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a system-specific demand forecast value. FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of the remaining allowable margin for each distribution line. FIG. 18 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of a consumer merit calculation unit. FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the possible scale of installation of renewable energy power sources at each consumer site. FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of customer base location conditions. FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a customer site demand forecast value. FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at each customer site. FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of candidates for dispersed power sources to be introduced. FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of electricity charges. FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the most economical amount of storage batteries to be introduced at each consumer site. FIG. 26 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the power system countermeasure planning unit. FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a location where power distribution system equipment can be reinforced. FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an augmentation facility candidate. FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a unit cost of power distribution facility reinforcement. FIG. 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an assumed unit price for additional capacity of a consumer storage battery. FIG. 31 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a facility plan optimization result. FIG. 32 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the procurement planning unit. FIG. 33 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution facility adjustment capability utilization cost/usage amount upper limit. FIG. 34 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consumer's distributed power source usage cost/usage amount upper limit. FIG. 35 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a market price predicted value. FIG. 36 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage amount upper limit. FIG. 37 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the control planning unit. FIG. 38 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the upper limit of the operation and usage amount of a consumer storage battery. FIG. 39 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power distribution facility capacity monitoring amount. FIG. 40 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount. FIG. 41 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consumer distributed power supply control amount. FIG. 42 is a flowchart showing the processing steps of facility planning by the planning device. FIG. 43 is a flowchart illustrating an example of detailed processing steps of the adjustment power value calculation process (step S4201). FIG. 44 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the display of the adjustment capacity value calculation result on the electronic terminal of the system operator. FIG. 45 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the process steps of the consumer merit calculation process (step S4202). FIG. 46 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an input screen displayed on a consumer's electronic terminal. FIG. 47 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the processing procedure of the power system countermeasure planning process (step S4203). FIG. 48 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of displaying the results of the optimization of a facility plan on an electronic terminal of a power system operator. FIG. 49 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display of the facility plan optimization result on a consumer's electronic terminal. FIG. 50 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for operation planning by the planning device. FIG. 51 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the procedure of the procurement planning process (step S5001). FIG. 52 is a flowchart illustrating an example of detailed processing steps of the control plan formulation process (step S5002).

The following describes in detail an embodiment of the present invention with reference to the drawings. The planning device disclosed in this embodiment performs an analysis of the optimal placement of distributed power sources based on a calculation of the value of the supply and demand adjustment capability of the grid and a calculation of the value of introducing distributed power sources by the consumer. Furthermore, during operation, the planning device performs optimal control of the consumer's distributed power sources based on the economic benefits of utilizing the grid operator's supply and demand adjustment capability and the economic benefits of operating the consumer's power sources.

<Relationships between stakeholders>
1 is an explanatory diagram showing example 1 of relationships between stakeholders regarding facility planning by a planning device. The planning device 100 acquires consumer site information from a consumer 101, acquires facility information from a power transmission and distribution company 102, which is a grid operator, and acquires distributed power source provision information from an energy resource provider 103.

The consumer base information is information indicating the specifications of distributed power sources that can be introduced at the consumer's 101 base (consumer base). The equipment information is information indicating the equipment to be used for system operation within the area. A distributed power source is a power source that is distributed among scattered consumers, such as a storage battery or a solar power generation facility. The energy resource provider 103 is a business that sells and provides distributed power sources. The distributed power source provision information is information indicating the price, specifications, etc. of the distributed power source provided.

The planning device 100, while referring to the various information described above, creates an optimal equipment plan, for example, an economical plan that ensures area supply and demand adjustment capacity (hereinafter simply adjustment capacity) and maintains equipment capacity, and provides the optimal equipment plan creation result to the power transmission and distribution company 102. The planning device 100 also refers to the various information described above, creates an economical distributed power source introduction plan for the consumer 101, and provides the distributed power source introduction plan creation result to the consumer 101.

In this case, depending on the capacity of the consumer's storage battery used by the power transmission and distribution company 102 for system operation, part of the battery introduction cost may be borne by the power transmission and distribution company 102 or the intermediary company that provides the planning device 100. Furthermore, the planning device 100 notifies the energy resource provider 103 of the distributed power supply provision information to be introduced to the consumer 101 based on the distributed power supply introduction plan.

Figure 2 is an explanatory diagram showing example 2 of the relationships between stakeholders regarding equipment planning by the planning device 100. Figure 2 is a modified example of the relationships between stakeholders in Figure 1, in which the power transmission and distribution company 102 is divided into a power transmission company 201 and a power distribution company 202. In this case, the planning device 100 provides the power transmission company 201 with the results of equipment planning regarding securing area supply and demand adjustment capacity for adjusting the supply and demand balance of the entire area. And, for the power distribution company 202, the planning device 100 provides the results of economical node planning to secure supply and demand adjustment capacity within the area under the power distribution company's jurisdiction and maintain equipment capacity.

Figure 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationships between stakeholders regarding the planning of an operation plan by the planning device 100. The planning device 100 acquires facility information of the power transmission and distribution company 102 and information on distributed power sources available for system operation, plans procurement and operation of the distributed power sources, and presents the results of the optimal operation plan to the power transmission and distribution company 102. The power transmission and distribution company 102 may receive trading power source information via the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 based on the procurement plan for the distributed power sources to be used.

(1) Configuration of the planning system <System configuration example>
4 is an explanatory diagram showing a configuration example of a planning system according to the present embodiment. The planning system 400 includes the planning device 100, an electronic terminal 401 of a consumer 101, electronic terminals 402 of a power transmission and distribution company 102, a power transmission company 201, and a power distribution company 202 (hereinafter, referred to as system operators), and an electronic terminal 403 of an energy resource provider 103. These are connected to each other so as to be able to communicate with each other via a network such as the Internet, a LAN (Local Area Network), or a WAN (Wide Area Network). The planning device 100 may be a local server installed at a specific location, or may be provided as a cloud server in the form of SaaS (Software as a Service).

The electronic terminal 401 accepts input of information such as consumer base information from the consumer 101. The electronic terminal 402 accepts input of equipment information from the grid operator. The electronic terminal 403 accepts input of distributed power source information provided by the energy resource provider 103.

<Example of Hardware Configuration of Computer (Planning Device 100, Electronic Terminals 401 to 403)>
5 is a block diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of a computer. The computer 500 has a processor 501, a storage device 502, an input device 503, an output device 504, and a communication interface (communication IF) 505. The processor 501, the storage device 502, the input device 503, the output device 504, and the communication IF 505 are connected by a bus 506. The processor 501 controls the computer 500. The storage device 502 is a working area for the processor 501. The storage device 502 is a non-transient or temporary recording medium that stores various programs and data. Examples of the storage device 502 include a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a HDD (Hard Disk Drive), and a flash memory. The input device 503 inputs data. The input device 503 may be, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, a numeric keypad, a scanner, or a microphone. The output device 504 outputs data. The output device 504 may be, for example, a display, a printer, or a speaker. The communication IF 505 connects to a network and transmits and receives data.

(2) Planning Function Next, the planning function of the planning device 100 will be described. This planning function has two functions, a distributed power source optimal placement analysis function and an optimal control function. The distributed power source optimal placement analysis function is a function that executes a distributed power source optimal placement analysis based on a calculation of the adjustment power value to the grid and a calculation of the distributed power source introduction value of the consumer 101. The optimal control function is a function that executes optimal control of the distributed power source of the consumer 101 during operation based on the economic merit of the grid operator's utilization of adjustment power and the economic merit of the power source operation of the consumer 101.

<Example of functional configuration of planning device 100>
Fig. 6 is a block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the planning device 100. The planning device 100 has a facility planning unit 601 and an operation planning unit 602. Specifically, the facility planning unit 601 and the operation planning unit 602 are functions realized by, for example, having the processor 501 execute a program stored in the storage device 502 shown in Fig. 5.

The equipment plan formulation unit 601 formulates an equipment plan. An equipment plan is the result of formulating where and how much capacity a distributed power source will be installed. Specifically, for example, the equipment plan formulation unit 601 has an adjustment capacity value calculation unit 611, a consumer merit calculation unit 612, and a system countermeasure formulation unit 613.

The operation plan formulation unit 602 formulates an operation plan. An operation plan is the result of formulating how to operate the distributed power source based on the equipment plan. Specifically, for example, the operation plan formulation unit 602 has a procurement plan formulation unit 621 and a control plan formulation unit 622. The functions of the equipment plan formulation unit 601 and the operation plan formulation unit 602 are described in detail below.

<Example of Functional Configuration of Adjustment Power Value Calculation Unit 611>
7 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the adjustment power value calculation unit 611. The adjustment power value calculation unit 611 has a period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701, an area adjustment power sufficiency calculation unit 702, an adjustment power market price reference value calculation unit 703, and a distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704.

The periodic supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701 predicts the periodic supply and demand fluctuation based on the area renewable energy source introduction amount 711, area demand actual/forecast value 712, and periodic weather actual/forecast value 713. The periodic supply and demand fluctuation is the supply and demand fluctuation amount of electricity in a specified period, that is, the deviation from the supply and demand forecast amount in advance. Specific examples of the area renewable energy source introduction amount 711, area demand actual/forecast value 712, and periodic weather actual/forecast value 713 will be described below.

Figure 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the renewable energy power source introduction amount 711 within the area. The renewable energy power source introduction amount 711 within the area is data containing the introduction amount of renewable energy power sources (for example, solar panels PV) within the area 801 (hereinafter, renewable energy power source introduction amount 803). The system ID 802 is identification information indicating whether the renewable energy power source belongs to a transmission and distribution system, a transmission system, or a distribution system.

Figure 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of area demand actual/forecast value 712. Area demand actual/forecast value 712 is a time series (defined by timestamp 901) actual value (area demand actual value) 902 and forecast value (area demand forecast value) 903 of demand for each area 801.

Figure 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the period weather actual/forecast value 713. The period weather actual/forecast value 713 is a time series (defined by the time stamp 901) actual value (period weather actual value) 1002 and forecast value (period weather forecast value) 1003 of the weather data 1001 for each area 801. As shown in Figure 10, the weather data 1001 includes, for example, average temperature, average precipitation, average solar radiation, relative humidity, and weather. The detailed prediction process of the period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7, the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the area adjustment capacity sufficiency based on the area bidding power source information 714 and the power distribution facility adjustment capacity 715. The area adjustment capacity sufficiency is the sufficiency of the adjustment capacity within the area 801 for the period supply and demand fluctuation predicted by the period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701. A specific example of the area bidding power source information 714 and the power distribution facility adjustment capacity 715 will be described.

Figure 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of intra-area bidding power source information 714. In-area bidding power source information 714 is information on bidding power sources within area 801. ID 1101 is identification information that uniquely identifies the bidding power source. Owner 1102 is the grid operator that owns the bidding power source identified by ID 1101. Type 1103 indicates the type of bidding power source. Average adjustment amount 1104 indicates the average adjustment amount [kW] of the bidding power source.

Figure 12 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power distribution equipment adjustment capacity 715. The power distribution equipment adjustment capacity 715 is information indicating the adjustment capacity of the power distribution equipment. The type 1203 indicates the type of power distribution equipment. The adjustment capacity of the power distribution equipment is specified for each adjustment capacity ID 1201 by the area 801, the system ID 802, the type 1203, and the average adjustment amount 1204. The detailed calculation process of the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7, the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 calculates an adjustment capacity market unit price reference value based on the sufficiency 1402 calculated by the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 and the market transaction past performance 716. The adjustment capacity market unit price reference value, which is the calculation result, is stored in the storage device 502 as the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717. Specific examples of the market transaction past performance 716 and the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717 will be described below.

Figure 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of past market transaction results 716. Past market transaction results 716 are information on past results of market transactions for each area 801. Date and time 1301 is the date and time when a market transaction was conducted in that area 801. Advance fulfillment level 1302 indicates the fulfillment level 1402 at that date and time 1301 for that area 801. Market procurement unit price results 1303 indicate the actual value of the market procurement unit price at that date and time 1301 for that area 801.

Figure 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717. The adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717 shows the calculation result of the market value of adjustment capacity for each area 801 by the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703. The date and time 1401 is the date and time when the calculation result was calculated. The sufficiency 1402 is the calculation result by the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702. The expected market unit price 1403 is the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculated by the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703. The detailed calculation process of the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7, the distribution line-specific allowable exceeding risk calculation unit 704 calculates the allowable exceeding risk for each distribution line based on the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area 711, the area demand forecast value 903 of the area demand actual/forecast value 712, the distribution equipment allowable value 718, and the system-specific demand forecast value 719. The distribution line-specific allowable exceeding risk, which is the calculation result, is stored in the storage device 502 as the distribution line-specific allowable value remaining margin 720. Specific examples of the distribution equipment allowable value 718, the system-specific demand forecast value 719, and the distribution line-specific allowable value remaining margin 720 will be described.

Figure 15 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power distribution equipment tolerance 718. The power distribution equipment tolerance 718 is a tolerance for the power distribution equipment of the system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801, and specifically includes, for example, a current tolerance 1501 and a voltage tolerance 1502.

Figure 16 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a system-specific demand forecast value 719. The system-specific demand forecast value 719 is a time-series (defined by time stamp 901) demand forecast value for each system defined by the system ID 802.

Figure 17 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution line tolerance remaining margin 720. The distribution line tolerance remaining margin 720 has a margin value (current tolerance margin) 1701 of the current tolerance 1501, a margin value (voltage tolerance margin) 1702 of the voltage tolerance 1502, and a tolerance exceedance risk 1703 for each system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801. The tolerance exceedance risk 1703 is a calculated value indicating the risk that the current tolerance 1501 and the voltage tolerance 1502 will be exceeded for that distribution line. The detailed calculation process of the distribution line tolerance exceedance risk calculation unit 704 will be described later. Next, the details of the consumer merit calculation unit 612 will be described.

<Example of functional configuration of consumer merit calculation unit 612>
18 is a block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the consumer merit calculation unit 612. The consumer merit calculation unit 612 has a base-specific renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 1801 and a base-specific most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802. The base-specific most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 has a storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, a re-economic operation simulation unit 1822, and an economic merit calculation unit 1823.

The site-specific renewable energy power generation forecast unit 1801 forecasts the amount of solar power generation for each site based on the renewable energy power source installation capacity for each consumer site 1811, the consumer site location conditions 1812, and the period weather forecast value 1003. Specific examples of the renewable energy power source installation capacity for each consumer site 1811 and the consumer site location conditions 1812 will be described below.

Figure 19 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the renewable energy power source installable scale by consumer base 1811. The renewable energy power source installable scale by consumer base 1811 is the renewable energy power source installable scale 1902 by consumer base within the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901.

Figure 20 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the customer base location conditions 1812. The customer base location conditions 1812 are the coordinates 2001 (longitude and latitude) and annual average solar radiation 2002 for each customer base in the area 801 specified by the base ID 1901. The detailed prediction process of the base-specific renewable energy power generation prediction unit 1801 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 18, the base-specific most economical battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 calculates the most economical battery introduction amount for each base based on the customer base demand forecast value 1813, the customer base-specific battery introduction amount upper limit 1814, the candidate distributed power source to be introduced 1815, and the electricity price 1816. The most economical battery introduction amount for each base is the most economical battery introduction amount for the base. Specific examples of the customer base demand forecast value 1813, the customer base-specific battery introduction amount upper limit 1814, the candidate distributed power source to be introduced 1815, and the electricity price 1816 will be described below.

Figure 21 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consumer base demand forecast value 1813. The consumer base demand forecast value 1813 is a time-series (defined by timestamp 901) demand forecast value 2100 for each consumer base.

Figure 22 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the upper limit 1814 of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at each customer site. The upper limit 1814 of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at each customer site is the upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at each customer site identified by the site ID 1901.

Figure 23 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a candidate distributed power source for introduction 1815. The candidate distributed power source for introduction 1815 is a candidate distributed power source identified by an ID 2301 that uniquely identifies a distributed power source that can be introduced, a model number 2302 of the distributed power source, a manufacturer 2303 that manufactured the distributed power source, a capacity 2304 of the distributed power source, and a price 2305 of the distributed power source.

Figure 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an electricity charge 1816. The electricity charge 1816 is a time-of-day charge 2400 for a consumer base in the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901.

Returning to FIG. 18, the base-specific most economical battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 executes an optimization calculation using a battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, a re-economic operation simulation unit 1822, and an economic merit calculation unit 1823 to identify the amount of battery introduction that will be economical. The optimization result from the optimization calculation is stored in the storage device 502 as the most economical battery introduction amount by consumer base 1817.

Figure 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the most economical battery installation capacity per customer site 1817. The most economical battery installation capacity per customer site 1817 is the most economical battery installation capacity 2500 for each system (specified by system ID 802) of a customer site in the area 801 specified by the site ID 1901.

Details of the processing of the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, the economic re-operation simulation unit 1822, and the economic merit calculation unit 1823 shown in FIG. 18 will be described later. Next, the details of the grid countermeasure planning unit 613 shown in FIG. 7 will be described.

<Example of functional configuration of the power grid countermeasure planning unit 613>
26 is a block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the grid countermeasure planning unit 613. The grid countermeasure planning unit 613 has an equipment plan assumption unit 2601 and an equipment plan calculation unit 2602. The equipment plan assumption unit 2601 has a consumer site-specific adjustment power additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 and a distribution line-specific equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612.

The facility plan calculation unit 2602 has a market procurement cost calculation unit 2621, a power distribution facility reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622, a power distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623, a consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624, and a total economic efficiency calculation unit 2625. The facility plan assumption unit 2601 and the facility plan calculation unit 2602 will be described in detail.

The customer site-specific additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 assumes the additional battery capacity for adjustment power at each customer site based on the most economical battery introduction amount at each customer site 1817 and the upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced at each customer site 1814. The additional battery capacity for adjustment power at each customer site is additional capacity used for system operation as adjustment power in addition to the operating capacity of the customer 101 itself when introducing a storage battery to the customer site.

The power distribution line equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes the amount of reinforcement of power distribution line equipment based on the power distribution system equipment reinforcement possible points 2603 and the reinforcement equipment candidates 2604. The power distribution line equipment reinforcement amount is the amount of reinforcement of power distribution equipment for each power distribution line. Specific examples of the power distribution system equipment reinforcement possible points 2603 and the reinforcement equipment candidates 2604 will be described.

Figure 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a distribution system equipment reinforcement possible point 2603. The distribution system equipment reinforcement possible point 2603 is a point where the distribution equipment of the distribution system can be reinforced. The point is specified by the area 801 and the system ID 802, and further includes the construction cost 2700 of the system.

Figure 28 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an augmentation equipment candidate 2604. The augmentation equipment candidate 2604 lists data on the power distribution equipment that is a candidate for augmentation, and includes a countermeasure device 2801 that is a power distribution equipment, a current allowable increase amount 2802 of the countermeasure device 2801, and a voltage allowable increase amount 2803 of the countermeasure device 2801.

Returning to FIG. 26, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the equipment plan (additional battery capacity for adjustment power by consumer site, equipment expansion amount by distribution line) assumed by the equipment plan assumption unit 2601 based on the adjustment power market value calculation result 717, the allowable value remaining margin by distribution line 720, the cost unit of expansion of distribution equipment 2605, and the estimated unit price of additional capacity of consumer storage batteries 2606. Specific examples of the cost unit of expansion of distribution equipment 2605 and the estimated unit price of additional capacity of consumer storage batteries 2606 will be described below.

Figure 29 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power distribution facility reinforcement cost unit 2605. The power distribution facility reinforcement cost unit 2605 shows the installation cost 2900 per countermeasure device 2801, which is a power distribution facility that is a candidate for reinforcement.

Figure 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the estimated unit price 2606 of additional capacity of a consumer battery. The estimated unit price 2606 of additional capacity of a consumer battery is the estimated unit price of additional capacity when a consumer 101 adds a battery, and includes an ID 3001 that uniquely identifies the battery, a model number 3002 of the battery, a manufacturer 3003 that produces the battery, and an estimated unit price 3004 of additional capacity of the battery.

Returning to FIG. 26, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 executes a comprehensive economic calculation by a total economic calculation unit 2625 based on the market procurement cost calculation by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621, the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation by the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622, the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation by the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623, and the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation by the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624.

Then, if a specified end condition (for example, a specified number of calculations is reached, a specified calculation time has elapsed, or a specified target value is reached) has not been reached, the equipment plan assumption unit 2601 assumes the equipment plan again. If the specified end condition has been reached, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 stores an equipment plan consisting of the optimal combination in the storage device 502 as the equipment plan optimization result 2608.

Figure 31 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the equipment plan optimization result 2608. The equipment plan optimization result 2608 shows the optimal equipment plan (current allowable margin 3101, voltage allowable margin 3102, additional resources 3103) for the system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801. The current allowable margin 3101 and the voltage allowable margin 3102 show the margins before and after the update. The additional resources 3103 include, for example, the added countermeasure device 2801, the base ID 1901 of the deployed consumer base (for example, "consumer storage battery #2"), and its additional capacity (xx kW). Since there are cases where countermeasures can be taken only with the consumer storage battery, there are also entries that do not have the added countermeasure device 2801. Next, the details of the procurement plan formulation unit 621 shown in Figure 7 will be described.

<Example of Functional Configuration of Procurement Planning Unit 621>
32 is a block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the procurement plan formulation unit 621. The procurement plan formulation unit 621 has a power distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201, a tolerance maintenance plan formulation unit 3202, an area adjustment capacity requirement calculation unit 3203, and a consumer distributed power source usage amount/market procurement amount determination unit 3204.

The distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount based on the distribution equipment tolerance value 718, the area renewable energy source introduction amount 711, the period weather forecast value 1003, and the system-specific demand forecast value 719. The distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount is a forecast value of the amount that deviates from the tolerance value of the current and voltage for each distribution line.

The tolerance maintenance plan creation unit 3202 creates a tolerance maintenance plan based on the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculated by the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201, the distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, and the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212. The tolerance maintenance plan is a plan for maintaining the current and voltage of the distribution line within the tolerance value.

The area-specific adjustment capacity requirement calculation unit 3203 calculates the area-specific adjustment capacity requirement based on the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903. The area-specific adjustment capacity requirement is the adjustment capacity required by area.

The consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount based on the distribution line tolerance maintenance plan drawn up by the tolerance maintenance plan drawing up unit 3202, the area-specific adjustment power requirement calculated by the area-specific adjustment power requirement calculation unit 3203, the distribution equipment adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power source usage cost/usage upper limit 3212, and the market price forecast value 3213.

The consumer's distributed power source usage/market procurement amount includes the consumer's 101 distributed power source usage amount and the procurement amount of supply and demand adjustment power from the market. The consumer's distributed power source usage/market procurement amount that is the result of the determination is stored in the storage device 502 as the market procurement adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3214. Specific examples of the power distribution facility adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3211, the consumer's distributed power source usage cost/usage upper limit 3212, the market price forecast value 3213, and the market procurement adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3214 will be described below.

Figure 33 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution equipment adjustment capacity utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211. The distribution equipment adjustment capacity utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211 is information that specifies the adjustment cost and usage upper limit of the usage of the distribution equipment. The distribution equipment is identified by the area 801, the system ID 802, and the type 1103. The adjustment capacity of the distribution equipment identified by the adjustment capacity ID 3301 is identified by the usage upper limit 3302, which is the upper limit of the usage of the adjustment capacity of the distribution equipment, and the cost unit price 3303, which is the cost for utilizing the adjustment capacity of the distribution equipment.

Figure 34 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the consumer distributed power source usage cost/usage upper limit 3212. The consumer distributed power source usage cost/usage upper limit 3212 is information that specifies the usage cost and usage upper limit of the distributed power source at the consumer base. The consumer base is identified by the base ID 1901 and area 801. The distributed power source is identified by the system ID 802 and type 1103. The distributed power source at the consumer base identified in this way is identified by the usage upper limit 3402 of the distributed power source and the cost unit price 3403.

Figure 35 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market price forecast value 3213. The market price forecast value 3213 is information that specifies the time-series (specified by the time stamp 901) predicted market price unit price 3500 of electricity.

Figure 36 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market procurement adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3214. The market procurement adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3214 is information that specifies the adjustment cost and usage upper limit of the usage of the distribution equipment procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. The distribution equipment procured by the market is identified by the area 801, the system ID 802, and the type 1103. The adjustment power of the distribution equipment procured by the market identified by the adjustment power ID 3301 is identified by the usage upper limit 3602, which is the upper limit of the usage of the adjustment power of the distribution equipment, and the activation cost unit price 3603, which is the cost for initiating procurement from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. Next, the details of the control plan drafting unit 622 shown in Figure 7 will be described.

<Example of Functional Configuration of Control Plan Development Unit 622>
37 is a block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the control plan formulation unit 622. The control plan formulation unit 622 includes a consumer base most economical power supply operation plan formulation unit 3701, a storage battery surplus usable amount calculation unit 3702, a distribution line tolerance deviation amount check unit 3703, a supply and demand gap check unit 3704, and a cost minimum adjustment power allocation unit 3705.

The consumer base most economical power operation plan creation unit 3701 creates a consumer base most economical power operation plan based on the consumer base demand forecast value 1813, the period weather forecast value 1003, the electricity price 1816, and the consumer battery operation usage upper limit 3711. The consumer base most economical power operation plan is the most economical operation plan for the power source at the consumer base. A specific example of the consumer battery operation usage upper limit 3711 will be described.

Figure 38 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the consumer storage battery operation usage upper limit 3711. The consumer storage battery operation usage upper limit 3711 is information that specifies the upper limit of the operation usage of the storage battery at the consumer base. The consumer base is identified by the base ID 1901 and the area 801. The storage battery is identified by the system ID 802 and the type 1103. The storage battery at the consumer base identified in this way is identified by the consumer operation usage upper limit 3802 and the operation usage upper limit 3803 of the storage battery. The consumer operation usage upper limit 3802 is information on the operation usage upper limit of the storage battery that is specified when planning the most economical power supply operation plan at the consumer base. The operation usage upper limit 3803 is information on the operation usage upper limit of the storage battery that is specified when planning grid measures.

Returning to FIG. 37, the storage battery surplus usable capacity calculation unit 3702 calculates the storage battery surplus usable capacity based on the most economical power supply operation plan at the consumer site formulated by the consumer site most economical power supply operation plan formulation unit 3701. The storage battery surplus usable capacity is the surplus amount of power that can be used by the storage battery.

The power distribution line tolerance deviation checking unit 3703 checks the current power distribution line tolerance deviation amount based on the power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712. A specific example of the power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 will be described.

Figure 39 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712. The power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 is identified by the current value 3901 and the voltage value 3902 of the power distribution equipment identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801.

Returning to FIG. 37, the supply and demand gap check unit 3704 checks the supply and demand gap based on the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713. The supply and demand gap is the difference between demand and supply in the current area. A specific example of the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713 will be described below.

Figure 40 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713. The area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713 is a monitoring amount of the supply and demand balance in the area 801, and is defined by the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002. The difference between the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002 is the supply and demand gap.

Returning to FIG. 37, the cost minimization adjustment power allocation unit 3705 allocates the cost minimization adjustment power based on the battery surplus available capacity calculated by the battery surplus available capacity calculation unit 3702, the distribution line tolerance deviation amount checked by the distribution line tolerance deviation amount check unit 3703, the area supply and demand gap checked by the supply and demand gap check unit 3704, the distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212, and the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3214. The cost minimization adjustment power is the adjustment power that minimizes the total cost. The cost minimization adjustment power is stored in the storage device 502 as the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714. A specific example of the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 will be described.

Figure 41 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714. The consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 is a time series (defined by time stamp 901) distributed power supply charge/discharge amount 4100 for each consumer base.

(3) Various Processes Related to the Planning Function Next, the contents of various processes executed by the planning device 100 in relation to the planning function according to this embodiment will be described.

(3-1) Various Processes of Facility Planning Fig. 42 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of facility planning by the planning device 100. The facility planning unit 601 of the planning device 100 sequentially executes an adjustment capacity value calculation process by the adjustment capacity value calculation unit 611 (step S4201), a consumer merit calculation process by the consumer merit calculation unit 612 (step S4202), and a grid measure planning process by the grid measure planning unit 613 (step S4203).

Figure 43 is a flowchart showing an example of detailed processing steps of the adjustment power value calculation process (step S4201). When the adjustment power value calculation process (step S4201) is started, first, the period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701 acquires the renewable energy source introduction amount 711 within the area, the area demand forecast value 903, and the period weather forecast value 1003, and predicts the period supply and demand fluctuation (step S4301).

Specifically, for example, the adjustment power value calculation unit 611 creates a multiple regression prediction model using actual supply and demand fluctuation values (not shown) from the past, such as last year, as the objective variable, and area demand actual value 902, period weather actual value 1002, and area renewable energy power source introduction amount 711 as explanatory variables. Then, the period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701 predicts area supply and demand fluctuation for a predetermined future period by inputting area demand forecast value 903 and period weather forecast value 1003 into the created multiple regression prediction model.

The area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the sufficiency of adjustment capacity within the area 801 for the predicted supply and demand fluctuation based on the supply and demand fluctuation within the area predicted by the adjustment capacity value calculation unit 611, the bidding power source information within the area 714, and the power distribution equipment adjustment capacity 715 (step S4302).

Specifically, for example, the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the total value within the area 801 of the average adjustment amount 1104, which is the estimated average supply and demand adjustment capacity of the bidding power sources within the area 801 shown in the area bidding power source information 714, and the average adjustment amount 1204, which is the estimated average supply and demand adjustment capacity of the distribution equipment within the area 801 shown in the distribution equipment adjustment capacity 715.

The area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 then calculates the difference by subtracting the amount of fluctuation in supply and demand within the area predicted by the adjustment capacity value calculation unit 611 from the total value. This difference is the adjustment capacity sufficiency 1402 in the area 801. If the sufficiency 1402 is 0 or greater, the adjustment capacity is sufficient, and if it is less than 0, the adjustment capacity is insufficient.

The adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 calculates an expected adjustment capacity market unit price based on the sufficiency 1402 calculated by the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 and the past market transaction performance 716, and stores it in the storage device 502 as the expected market unit price 1403 of the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717 (step S4303).

Specifically, for example, the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 creates a simple regression prediction model using the actual market procurement price 1303 of supply and demand adjustment capacity procured in past market transactions as the objective variable and the sufficiency 1402 calculated by the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 at that time as the explanatory variable. Then, the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 inputs the sufficiency 1402 into the created simple regression prediction model, thereby calculating the expected unit price of the adjustment capacity market at a specified date and time in the future as the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value.

The distribution line allowance exceeding risk calculation unit 704 calculates the allowance exceeding risk 1703 for each distribution line based on the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area 711, the period weather actual/forecast value 713, the distribution equipment allowance value 718, and the system-specific demand forecast value 719, and stores the calculation result in the storage device 502 as the distribution line allowance remaining margin 720 (step S4304).

Specifically, for example, the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704 first predicts the current (reverse current) that flows back into the system identified by the system ID 802 and the voltage (load voltage) that serves as a load, based on the amount of renewable energy power introduced 803 for each system ID 802 in the area 801 and the time-series periodic weather forecast value of average solar radiation, which is one of the periodic weather forecast values 1003. The reverse current is calculated in time series for each system ID 802 using the following formula (1), and the load voltage is calculated in time series for each system ID 802 using the following formula (2).

Reverse current (t) = predetermined coefficient C1 × amount of renewable energy power introduced into the grid 803 × predicted average solar radiation (t) (1)
Load voltage (t) = predetermined coefficient C2 × renewable energy power supply amount in the system 803 × predicted average solar radiation value (t) ... (2)

The result of equation (1) is converted to amperes using coefficient C1 (unit: A/kWh), and the result of equation (2) is converted to volts using coefficient C2 (unit: V/kWh). Reverse current (t) is the reverse current at time t, and load voltage (t) is the load voltage at time t.

The average solar radiation forecast value of formula (1) and formula (2) is the period weather forecast value 1003 for the average solar radiation, which is one of the weather data 1001 in the period weather actual/forecast value 713 shown in FIG. 10. For example, when the area 801 is Tokyo, the average solar radiation forecast value is time series data of {1.45, 1.20, ...}. The average solar radiation forecast value (t) is the period weather forecast value of the average solar radiation at time t, that is, one of the time series data.

Then, the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceeding risk calculation unit 704 calculates the difference between the calculated reverse current and the current allowable value 1501 of the system in the distribution equipment allowable value 718, and calculates the difference between the calculated load voltage (hereinafter, reverse load voltage) and the voltage allowable value 1502 of the system in the distribution equipment allowable value 718. These two differences are referred to as the first margin value in the system. When evaluating the margin of a system, it is appropriate to take the maximum value of the expected load, so the reverse current and reverse load voltage of the first margin value are calculated as shown in the following formulas (3) and (4).

First margin value (reverse current)=current allowable value 1501−max (reverse current (t1), reverse current (t2), . . . ) (3)
First margin value (reverse load voltage)=voltage allowable value 1502−max (reverse load voltage (t1), reverse load voltage (t2), . . . ) (4)

Similarly, for the forward flow current and the corresponding load voltage (hereinafter, forward flow load voltage), the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704 calculates a time-series forward flow current and the corresponding forward flow load voltage by replacing the "amount of renewable energy source introduction 803 of the system" in the above equations (1) and (2) with the "system-specific demand forecast value 719 at time t."

For the second margin value (forward flow current), the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceeding risk calculation unit 704 calculates the second margin value (current) by replacing "reverse flow current (t1), reverse flow current (t2), ..." in the above formula (3) with "forward flow current (t1), forward flow current (t2), ...".

Similarly, for the second margin value (voltage), the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704 calculates the second margin value (forward flow voltage) by replacing "reverse load voltage (t1), reverse load voltage (t2), ..." in the above formula (4) with "forward flow load voltage (t1), forward flow load voltage (t2), ...".

The distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704 determines the smaller of the reverse flow current of the first margin value and the forward flow current of the second margin value as the current allowable capacity margin 1701, determines the smaller of the reverse flow load voltage of the first margin value and the forward flow load voltage of the second margin value as the voltage allowable capacity margin 1702, and registers it in the entry of the corresponding area 801 and system ID 802 of the distribution line-specific allowable capacity remaining margin 720.

The distribution line allowable excess risk calculation unit 704 also calculates the allowable excess risk 1703 by adding the value obtained by multiplying the current allowable margin 1701 by a predetermined coefficient and the value obtained by multiplying the voltage allowable margin 1702 by a predetermined coefficient, and registers this in the same entry as the current allowable margin 1701 and voltage allowable margin 1702 that were used for the calculation in the distribution line allowable margin remaining margin 720.

Next, the distribution line-specific allowable capacity exceedance risk calculation unit 704 transmits the adjustment capacity value calculation result based on the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717 in a displayable manner to the system operator's electronic terminal 402 (step S4305).

Figure 44 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the display of the adjustment capacity value calculation result on the electronic terminal 402 of the grid operator. The display screen 4400 displays the area adjustment capacity market value 4401, the grid-specific allowable value exceedance risk 4402, and the power distribution line network map 4403 for the target area 801. The area adjustment capacity market value is the expected market price 1403 of the area 801 in the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717.

The system-specific tolerance exceeding risk 4402 includes the distribution equipment ID 4421, the distribution equipment type 1203, the distribution equipment maximum load 4422, the distribution equipment maximum tolerance (current tolerance 1501, voltage tolerance 1502), the distribution equipment residual margin 4424 (current tolerance margin 1701, voltage tolerance margin 1702), and the tolerance exceeding risk 1703. The distribution equipment maximum load 4422 is the value of max(), the second term on the right-hand side of the above equations (3) and (4).

The distribution line network map 4403 is a map that displays a distribution line network in which distribution facilities are connected by distribution lines. Clicking on a distribution facility displays the system-specific tolerance exceedance risk 4402 for that distribution facility. As shown in FIG. 44, distribution lines with a tolerance exceedance risk 1703 equal to or greater than a threshold value may be visually displayed (denoted with an exclamation mark) as facilities requiring measures. The market value score is the average value of the expected market price 1403 at each date and time 1401 of the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717.

Figure 45 is a flowchart showing an example of detailed processing steps of the consumer merit calculation process (step S4202). First, the consumer merit calculation unit 612 acquires the renewable energy power source installation capacity per consumer site 1811, the consumer site location conditions 1812, the period weather forecast value 1003, the consumer site demand forecast value 1813, the upper limit of the storage battery introduction capacity per consumer site 1814, the candidate distributed power sources to be introduced 1815, and the electricity price 1816 from the storage device 502 based on the introduction request from the electronic terminal of the consumer 101 (step S4501).

Figure 46 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an input screen displayed on the electronic terminal of the consumer 101. The consumer merit calculation unit 612 acquires from the storage device 502 the renewable energy power source installation capacity 1811 for each consumer base, the consumer base location conditions 1812, the period weather forecast value 1003, the consumer base demand forecast value 1813, the upper limit of the amount of storage battery installation capacity for each consumer base 1814, the candidate distributed power sources for installation 1815, and the electricity charges 1816 that correspond to the area, address, solar power generation installation capacity, area of the storage battery installation site, initial burden cost, and whether or not the installation cost burden service is desired that are input on the screen 4600.

Returning to FIG. 45, the site-specific renewable energy power generation prediction unit 1801 predicts the amount of solar power generation for each site based on the renewable energy power source installation capacity for each consumer site 1811 and the consumer site location conditions 1812 (step S4502). The amount of solar power generation for each site is calculated, for example, by multiplying the periodic weather forecast value 1003 of the average solar radiation at the site and the renewable energy power source installation capacity 1902 with a predetermined weight.

The base-specific most economical battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 determines the most economical battery introduction amount at the base based on the customer base demand forecast value 1813, the customer base-specific battery introduction possible amount upper limit 1814, the candidate distributed power source to be introduced 1815, and the electricity price 1816 (steps S4503 to S4506). Here, in order to identify the re-economical battery introduction amount, the base-specific most economical battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 executes optimization calculations using the battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, the re-economic operation simulation unit 1822, and the economic merit calculation unit 1823.

Specifically, the battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 performs an assumption of the amount of battery introduction at the consumer site (step S4503). For example, from among multiple additional battery introduction amount candidates of the candidate for introduced distributed power source 1815 registered in advance by the energy resource provider 103, one candidate (hereinafter, the battery introduction amount candidate) is randomly selected from entries with a capacity 2304 that does not exceed the upper limit 2200 of the battery introduction amount at the consumer site identified by the site ID 1901.

Next, the re-economic operation simulation unit 1822 performs a re-economic operation simulation at the consumer base based on the candidate storage battery introduction amount assumed by the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 (step S4504). The re-economic operation simulation is a process that reduces the problem to an optimization problem of searching for a combination of the storage battery to be used and the storage battery charge/discharge amount by time period that minimizes the total annual electricity bill cost using, for example, the price 2305 of the candidate storage battery introduction amount, the annual demand forecast value 2100 at the consumer base, the solar power generation amount forecast value at the consumer base calculated in step S4502, and the time-of-day rate 2400 at the consumer base.

For example, this is realized by an approximate solution search method using an approximation algorithm such as a greedy method. The economical operation simulation unit 1822 calculates the most economical battery charge and discharge plan (most economical battery installation amount 2500) by simulating the most economical operation using such an approximate solution search method. At this time, if the consumer 101 is able to sell surplus electricity to the power company, the economic merit calculation unit 1823 may set the optimization objective function to maximize the profit based on the income from selling surplus electricity and the expenditure on electricity charges (step S4505).

The base-specific most economical battery installation amount calculation unit 1802 then determines whether a specified end condition has been reached (step S4506). If the specified end condition has not been reached (step S4506; No), the process returns to step S4503, and the battery installation amount assumption unit 1821 re-assumes the battery installation amount. If the specified end condition has been reached (step S4506: Yes), the finally obtained most economical battery installation amount 2500 is stored in the most economical battery installation amount by consumer base 1817, and the process proceeds to step S4203.

Figure 47 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the processing procedure of the system countermeasure planning process (step S4203). When the system countermeasure planning process is started, the customer site additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 assumes additional capacity to be used for system operation as adjustment capacity in addition to the operating capacity of the consumer 101 itself when introducing a battery to the customer site based on the most economical battery introduction amount 1817 for each customer site and the upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced for each customer site 1814 (step S4701). Specifically, for example, the customer site additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 assumes additional capacity randomly within a range that does not exceed the difference between the most economical battery introduction amount 2500 and the upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced that can be added 2200 at each customer site.

Next, the distribution line equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment based on the distribution system equipment reinforcement possible points 2603 and the reinforcement equipment candidates 2604 (step S4702). For example, the distribution line equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment by randomly allocating new countermeasure equipment 2801 to be reinforced for each system. In other words, the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment includes the sum of the construction cost 2700 and the installation cost 2900, the total value of the current allowable value increase amount 2802, and the total value of the voltage allowable value increase amount 2803.

Then, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 executes an equipment plan calculation process (steps S4703 to S4707) to calculate the provisionally determined combination (additional capacity and distribution equipment reinforcement amount), and determines whether or not a specified end condition has been reached (step S4708). If the specified end condition has not been reached (step S4708; No), the process returns to step S4701, and the customer site-specific adjustment power additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 and the distribution line-specific equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612 provisionally determine a combination again.

When the specified termination condition is reached (step S4708; Yes), the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 transmits the final calculation result of the provisionally determined combination (additional capacity and distribution equipment reinforcement amount) as an equipment plan consisting of the optimal combination to the grid operator's electronic terminal 402 so that it can be displayed (step S4709), and notifies the electronic terminal 401 of the consumer 101 (step S4710). The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 stores the equipment plan consisting of the optimal combination in the storage device 502 as the equipment plan optimization result 2608, and ends the process.

Here, we will specifically explain the equipment plan calculation process (steps S4703 to S4707) that calculates the provisionally determined combination (additional capacity and amount of expansion of distribution equipment).

The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 executes a comprehensive economic calculation (step S4707) by the total economic calculation unit 2625 based on the market procurement cost calculation by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 (step S4703), the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation by the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622 (step S4704), the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation by the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 (step S4705), and the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation by the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 (step S4706).

The facility plan calculation unit 2602 may execute a comprehensive economic calculation (step S4707) by the total economic calculation unit 2625 using at least two of the market procurement cost calculation by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 (step S4703), the distribution facility reinforcement cost calculation by the distribution facility reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622 (step S4704), the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation by the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 (step S4705), and the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation by the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 (step S4706).

In the market procurement cost calculation (step S4703), for example, the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 calculates the market procurement cost. The market procurement cost is the cost incurred when the additional capacity (additional storage battery capacity) of the consumer base assumed in step S4701 is used during operation via the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. For example, the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 calculates the market procurement cost by multiplying the additional storage battery capacity by the expected market price 1403 in the area 801, which is the adjustment capacity market value calculation result 717.

In the calculation of the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost (step S4704), for example, the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622 calculates the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost based on the randomly assigned countermeasure equipment 2801 included in the reinforcement amount of the power distribution equipment for each system assumed by the power distribution line equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2612, the installation cost 2900 for each countermeasure equipment 2801 of the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost unit price 2605, and the construction cost 2700 of the system at the power distribution system equipment reinforcement possible point 2603. For example, if the randomly assigned countermeasure equipment 2801 for the system with system ID 802 of "A021" are "SVR1" and "SVR2", the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost is calculated by the following formula (5).

Cost of expanding distribution facilities for system "A021" = Construction cost for system "A021" 2700
+ Installation cost of countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1) 2900
+ Installation cost of countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2) 2900
...(5)

In calculating the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk reduction amount (step S4705), for example, the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 calculates the current tolerance margin and voltage tolerance margin after countermeasures for each system based on the current tolerance margin 1701 and voltage tolerance margin 1702 of the distribution line-specific tolerance remaining margin 720, the assumed additional countermeasure equipment for each system (randomly assigned countermeasure equipment 2801 included in the distribution equipment reinforcement amount), and the additional capacity to the consumer site storage battery.

For example, if the countermeasure devices 2801 randomly assigned to the system with system ID 802 "A021" are "SVR1" and "SVR2", the allowable current margin and allowable voltage margin of the system "A021" after countermeasures are calculated using the following formulas (6) and (7). Note that the additional capacity of the storage battery is the capacity assumed in step S4701.

Current allowable value margin after countermeasures for system "A021" = Current allowable value margin 1701 of system "A021"
+ Current allowable increase amount 2802 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1)
+ Current allowable increase amount 2802 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2)
+ Predetermined coefficient C3 × (additional capacity of the storage battery at base ID: 1 of the consumer 101 of the system “A021” + additional capacity of the storage battery at base ID: 2 of the consumer 101 of the system “A021”)
...(6)

Voltage allowable value margin after countermeasures for system "A021" = Voltage allowable value margin 1702 of system "A021"
+ Voltage allowable increase amount 2803 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1)
+ Voltage allowable increase amount 2803 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2)
+ Predetermined coefficient C4 × (additional capacity of the storage battery at base ID: 1 of the consumer 101 of the system “A021” + additional capacity of the storage battery at base ID: 2 of the consumer 101 of the system “A021”)
...(7)

The predetermined coefficient C3 in equation (6) is a coefficient for converting the additional capacity of the battery into amperes, and the predetermined coefficient C4 in equation (7) is a coefficient for converting the additional capacity of the battery into volts.

The distribution line tolerance exceeding risk reduction calculation unit 2623 calculates the tolerance exceeding risk of the distribution line after the countermeasures for each system by adding, for each system, the value obtained by multiplying the current tolerance margin after the countermeasures by a predetermined coefficient and the value obtained by multiplying the voltage tolerance margin after the countermeasures by a predetermined coefficient.

Then, the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 calculates the tolerance exceeding risk reduction amount for each distribution line by system using the following formula (8).

Reduction in risk of exceeding tolerance = risk of exceeding tolerance 1703 - risk of exceeding tolerance after measures
...(8)

In calculating the cost of additional capacity of the consumer battery (step S4706), for example, the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 multiplies the additional capacity used for system operation assumed in the consumer site-specific adjustment capacity additional battery capacity assumption unit 2611 by the estimated additional capacity unit price 3004 for each battery shown in the consumer battery additional capacity estimated unit price 2606, thereby calculating the cost incurred by adding capacity to the consumer 101's battery (the consumer battery additional capacity cost).

In the overall economic calculation (step S4707), for example, the total economic calculation unit 2625 calculates an overall evaluation value for each system using the following formula (9) based on the market procurement cost obtained from the market procurement cost calculation (step S4703), the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost obtained from the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation (step S4704), the allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount obtained from the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation (step S4705), and the consumer battery additional capacity cost obtained from the consumer battery additional capacity cost calculation (step S4706).

Overall evaluation value = weighting factor W1 × market procurement cost + weighting factor W2 × distribution facility expansion cost - weighting factor W3 × distribution line tolerance exceedance risk reduction amount + weighting factor W4 × consumer battery additional capacity cost
... (9)

The system countermeasure planning unit 613 repeats steps S4701 to S4707 until a specified end condition is reached, thereby searching for the additional resource configuration with the highest overall evaluation value, i.e., the configuration of augmentation equipment for each system and additional capacity for the storage battery of the consumer 101. This search is performed based on a metaheuristic method such as a genetic algorithm. The additional resource configuration for each system searched in this way is stored in the storage device 502 as the equipment plan optimization result 2608. In addition, the equipment plan optimization result 2608 is transmitted to the electronic terminal 402 of the system operator (step S4709), and also transmitted to the electronic terminal 401 of the consumer 101 (step S4710).

Figure 48 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the display of the equipment plan optimization result 2608 on the grid operator's electronic terminal 402. For example, the display screen 4800 of the electronic terminal 402 displays the equipment plan optimization result 2608, which is the additional capacity of the consumer's battery (adjustment of the consumer's battery) and the adjustment capacity to be procured by the expanded power distribution equipment (adjustment of the company's own equipment) for the supply and demand fluctuation in the area 801 predicted by the period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 701.

The display screen 4800 also displays the cost of upgrading the power distribution equipment, the cost of using distributed power sources at consumers, and the total cost for the period. It is also possible to display power distribution systems in which the risk of exceeding the allowable value has been improved through measures.

Figure 49 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the display of the equipment plan optimization result 2608 on the electronic terminal 401 of the consumer 101. The display screen 4900 of the electronic terminal 401 displays, for example, the annual demand forecast value of the consumer base, the annual solar power generation amount, the demand amount on an average or representative day, the renewable energy power generation amount, and a daily power plan including the battery charge/discharge amount. It is also possible to display information on the cost burden of the consumer 101, taking into account the discount information of the battery based on the additional capacity of the consumer battery used for system operation.

50 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for operation planning by the planning device 100. As described above, the operation planning unit 602 of the planning device 100 sequentially executes a procurement planning process (step S5001) and a control planning process (step S5002).

Figure 51 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the processing procedure of the procurement plan formulation process (step S5001). In the procurement plan formulation process (step S5001), the power distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, the customer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212, the market price forecast value 3213, the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3214, the customer storage battery operation usage upper limit 3711, the power distribution facility capacity monitoring amount 3712, the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713, and the customer distributed power source control amount 3714 shown in Figures 33 to 36 and 38 to 41 are used as reference data.

In addition, since the procurement plan creation process (step S5001) is executed at a timing of the system operator's choice, for example, one day to one week before the actual supply and demand time, the above-mentioned reference data is forecast value data for one day to one week ahead from the execution timing of the procurement plan creation process (step S5001).

When the procurement plan formulation process (step S5001) is started, the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast calculation unit 3201 calculates the tolerance deviation forecast amount for each distribution line based on the distribution equipment tolerance value 718, the amount of renewable energy power source introduced in the area 711, the period weather forecast value 1003, and the system-specific demand forecast value 719 (step S5101).

Specifically, for example, the power distribution line-specific tolerance deviation prediction amount calculation unit 3201 predicts the reverse current and reverse load voltage flowing back into the system based on the renewable energy power source introduction amount 803 of each system of the area renewable energy power source introduction amount 711 and the periodic weather forecast value 1003 of the average solar radiation, which is one of the weather data 1001 in the area 801 of the system. The reverse current and reverse load voltage are calculated, for example, by the above formulas (1) and (2).

Then, the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201 calculates a first margin value, similar to the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk calculation unit 704. Also, the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201 calculates a forward flow current and a forward flow load voltage, and calculates a second margin value, similar to the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk calculation unit 704. Then, the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201 determines the smaller of the reverse flow current of the first margin value and the forward flow current of the second margin value as the current tolerance margin 1701, similar to the distribution line tolerance exceeding risk calculation unit 704, and determines the smaller of the reverse flow load voltage of the first margin value and the forward flow load voltage of the second margin value as the voltage tolerance margin 1702.

Next, the tolerance maintenance plan creation unit 3202 creates a tolerance maintenance plan for maintaining the current and voltage of the distribution line within the tolerance based on the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount (reverse current and reverse load voltage, first margin, forward flow current and forward flow load voltage, second margin, current tolerance margin, voltage tolerance margin) calculated by the distribution line tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201, the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, and the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212 (step S5102).

Specifically, for example, when the first margin value or the second margin value becomes negative, i.e., exceeds the margin value of the power distribution line, the tolerance maintenance plan creation unit 3202 creates a tolerance maintenance plan that maintains the margin value by using the power distribution equipment or the distributed power source of any of the consumers 101 so as to at least prevent the margin value from being exceeded.

For example, the tolerance maintenance plan creation unit 3202 sorts the cost unit price 3303 of the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211 and the cost unit price 3403 of the consumer distributed power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212 in ascending order so that the distributed power sources of the distribution equipment or consumer 101 are utilized in order of lowest unit cost, and assigns them as utilization sources in ascending order of value.

For example, if the lowest value of the cost unit price 3303, 3403 among the power distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211 and the consumer distributed power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212 is the value "100" of the cost unit price 3303 of an entry whose adjustment power ID 3301 of the power distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211 is "1", the value "100" of the cost unit price 3303 of that entry is assigned first. The current allowable value margin after the assignment is calculated by the following formula (10), and the voltage allowable value margin after the assignment is calculated by the following formula (11).

Current allowance margin after allocation=Current allowance margin−Forward flow current+(weighting coefficient×usage upper limit 3302 or usage upper limit 3402 of the allocated entry) (10)
Voltage allowance margin after allocation=Current allowance margin−Forward flow current+(weighting coefficient×usage upper limit 3302 or usage upper limit 3402 of the allocated entry) (11)

Each time an entry to be allocated is selected, the tolerance maintenance plan creation unit 3202 calculates the above formulas (10) and (11), updates the post-allocation current tolerance margin and the post-allocation voltage tolerance margin, and allocates the adjustment power of the entry with the smallest cost unit price 3303, 3403 until at least one of the post-allocation current tolerance margin or the post-allocation voltage tolerance margin becomes a positive value (i.e., the tolerance is not exceeded). In this way, a tolerance maintenance plan is created that maintains the tolerance that minimizes the total cost.

Next, the area-specific adjustment capacity requirement calculation unit 3203 calculates the adjustment capacity requirement for each area 108 based on the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903 (step S5103). Specifically, for example, the area-specific adjustment capacity requirement calculation unit 3203 creates a multiple regression prediction model for each area 801 using the past actual value of the area-specific adjustment capacity requirement as the objective variable, and the area demand actual value 902 and the period weather actual value 1002 as explanatory variables. Then, the area-specific adjustment capacity requirement calculation unit 3203 calculates the adjustment capacity requirement for each area 108 by inputting the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903 into the multiple regression prediction model for the corresponding area.

Next, the consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the consumer 101's distributed power source usage amount and the procurement amount of supply and demand adjustment power from the market based on the distribution line's tolerance maintenance plan drawn up by the tolerance maintenance plan drawing up unit 3202, the adjustment power requirement by area 108 calculated by the area-specific adjustment power requirement calculation unit 3203, the distribution equipment adjustment power usage cost/usage upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power source usage cost/usage upper limit 3212, and the market price forecast value 3213 (step S5104).

Specifically, for example, the consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 calculates the usage amount of the available distribution equipment by subtracting the average adjustment amount 1204 of the distribution equipment adjustment ability 715 used in the tolerance maintenance plan from the usage amount upper limit 3302 of the distribution equipment adjustment ability usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3211.

More specifically, for example, the consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 calculates the available amount of the consumer's 101 distributed power source by subtracting the usage amount of the consumer's 101 distributed power source that was used in the tolerance maintenance plan from the usage amount upper limit 3402 of the consumer's distributed power source usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3212.

Next, the consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the usage amount of the power distribution facility or the usage amount of the distributed power source of the consumer 101, and the procurement amount from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, including other power sources not registered in the planning device 100, so as to secure the adjustment capacity required by area 108 calculated by the area-specific adjustment capacity required amount calculation unit 3203.

The consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 allocates the procurement amount in ascending order of cost unit price based on, for example, the cost unit price 3303 of the available power distribution facility, the cost unit price 3403 of the consumer's 101 distributed power source, and the market price forecast unit price 3500 at the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, until the procurement amount exceeds the required amount of adjustment power, and determines, in the adjustment power procurement plan, the usage amount of the power distribution facility, the usage amount of the consumer's 101 distributed power source, and the market procurement amount that minimize the total cost.

The procurement plan formulation unit 621 transmits the adjustment power procurement plan determined by the consumer distributed power source usage amount/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 to the grid operator's electronic terminal 402 (step S5105), and proceeds to the control plan formulation process (step S5002).

Figure 52 is a flowchart showing a detailed example of the processing procedure of the control plan formulation process (step S5002). In the control plan formulation process (step S5002), the procurement plan formulation process (step S5001) uses as reference data the power distribution facility adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, the customer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212, the market price forecast value 3213, the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3214, the customer storage battery operation usage upper limit 3711, the power distribution facility capacity monitoring amount 3712, the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713, and the customer distributed power source control amount 3714 shown in Figures 33 to 36 and Figures 38 to 41.

The control plan creation process (step S5002) is executed at any timing selected by the system operator between one hour before and immediately before the actual supply and demand time, and the reference data is the forecast value data between one hour before and immediately before the execution timing of the control plan creation process (step S5002) or the monitoring data immediately before the execution of the control plan creation process (step S5002).

When the control plan creation process is started, the consumer base most economical power operation plan creation unit 3701 creates the most economical power operation plan at the consumer base based on the consumer base demand forecast value 1813, the period weather forecast value 1003, the electricity price 1816, and the consumer battery operation usage limit 3711 (step S5201).

As a specific method for planning the most economical power supply operation at a consumer base, for example, the consumer base most economical power supply operation planning unit 3701 calculates a predicted value of solar power generation energy one hour ahead based on the demand forecast value 2100 for the consumer base one hour ahead and the period weather forecast value 1003 of average solar radiation from the weather data 1001.

The consumer site most economical power supply operation plan creation unit 3701 searches for the most economical charge/discharge amount of the storage battery by time period based on the calculated solar power generation power amount forecast value, the time-of-day rate 2400 at the site, and the consumer operation usage amount upper limit 3802 at the consumer storage battery operation usage amount upper limit 3711. Specifically, for example, the consumer site most economical power supply operation plan creation unit 3701 searches for the most economical charge/discharge amount of the storage battery by time period by reducing the problem to an optimization problem of searching for a combination of charge/discharge amounts of the storage battery by time period that minimizes the total cost of the consumer 101. This optimization problem is solved by an approximate solution search method using an approximation algorithm such as a greedy method.

Here, the value of the consumer operational usage amount upper limit 3802 may be determined, for example, by multiplying it by a predetermined weighting coefficient based on the most economical battery installation amount 2500 of the most economical battery installation amount by consumer site 1817 calculated in the consumer merit calculation process (step S4202).

The battery surplus usable capacity calculation unit 3702 calculates the battery surplus usable capacity based on the most economical power supply operation plan (the most economical hourly charge/discharge amount of the battery) at the consumer base (step S5202). Specifically, for example, the battery surplus usable capacity calculation unit 3702 calculates the battery surplus usable capacity by subtracting the most economical hourly charge/discharge amount of the battery from the operation usage upper limit 3803 in the consumer battery operation usage upper limit 3711.

The power distribution line tolerance deviation checking unit 3703 checks the current power distribution line tolerance deviation based on the power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 (step S5203). Specifically, for example, the power distribution line tolerance deviation checking unit 3703 compares the system-specific current value 3901 and voltage value 3902 in the power distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 with the system-specific current tolerance value 1501 and voltage tolerance value 1502 in the power distribution equipment tolerance value 718, and calculates the respective differences as the deviation amount of the tolerance value for each power distribution line.

The supply and demand gap check unit 3704 checks the current gap between the demand and supply balance in the area 108 based on the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713 (step S5204). Specifically, for example, the supply and demand gap check unit 3704 calculates the supply and demand gap, which is the difference between the demand and supply in the area 801, by comparing the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002 in the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713.

The cost minimization adjustment power allocation unit 3705 determines the adjustment power allocation that minimizes the total cost based on the battery surplus available capacity calculated by the battery surplus available capacity calculation unit 3702, the distribution line tolerance deviation amount calculated by the distribution line tolerance deviation amount check unit 3703, the supply and demand gap calculated by the supply and demand gap check unit 3704, the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212, and the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3214 (step S5205).

Specifically, for example, the cost minimum adjustment power allocation unit 3705 determines the adjustment power allocation for maintaining the current and voltage of the distribution line within the allowable values based on the distribution line allowable value deviation amount calculated by the distribution line allowable value deviation amount check unit 3703, the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211, and the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212.

In other words, the cost minimum adjustment power allocation unit 3705 sorts the cost unit price 3303 of the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3211 and the cost unit price 3403 of the consumer distributed power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3212 in ascending order so that the distributed power sources of the power distribution equipment or the consumer 101 are utilized in order of lowest cost unit price 3303, 3403, and allocates them as utilized power sources in ascending order of value, and subtracts the utilization amount of the utilized power sources from the deviation amount of the allowable value by distribution line. The allocation of utilized power sources is repeated until the deviation amount of the allowable value by distribution line becomes zero. In this way, the allocation of the utilization amount of the power distribution equipment or the utilization amount of the consumer 101 is determined to maintain the tolerance value that minimizes the total cost.

Then, the cost minimization adjustment power allocation unit 3705 calculates the usage of the power distribution equipment that can be used to adjust the area supply and demand balance by subtracting the power distribution equipment adjustment power allocated by the adjustment power allocation from the usage amount upper limit 3302 of the power distribution equipment adjustment power usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3211.

Similarly, the cost minimization adjustment power allocation unit 3705 calculates the usage amount of the consumer 101's distributed power sources that can be used to adjust the area supply and demand balance by subtracting the usage amount of the consumer 101's distributed power sources that have been allocated by the adjustment power allocation from the usage amount upper limit 3402 of the consumer's distributed power source usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3212.

The cost-minimizing adjustment power allocation unit 3705 determines the amount of distribution facility adjustment power to be used or the amount of distributed power sources to be used by the consumer 101, and the amount to be procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, including other unregistered power sources, so as to secure the required adjustment power for each area 108 calculated by the area-specific adjustment power required amount calculation unit 3203.

The consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204, for example, allocates procurement amounts from the cost unit price of the power distribution facility that can be used to adjust the area supply and demand balance to eliminate the supply and demand gap, the cost unit price of the consumer's 101 distributed power source that can be used to adjust the area supply and demand balance, and the market price forecast unit price 3500 at the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 in order of lowest cost so as not to exceed the respective usage upper limit, thereby determining in the control plan the usage amount of the power distribution facility, the usage amount of the consumer's 101 distributed power source, and the market procurement amount that minimizes the total cost.

The consumer distributed power source usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 stores the consumer distributed power source usage amount that minimizes the total cost in the storage device 502 as the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 (step S5206), and ends the processing.

Based on the consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 thus determined, the grid operator may control the charging and discharging of the storage battery of the consumer 101 by a distributed power supply control system such as a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS). In addition, if part of the grid management is entrusted to another power distribution company, or part of the area supply and demand balance adjustment management is entrusted to an aggregation coordinator, the grid operator may indirectly control the distributed power supply of the consumer 101 by transmitting the calculated consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 from the electronic terminal 402 to the electronic terminal of such company.

In this way, the planning device 100 performs an analysis of the optimal placement of distributed power sources based on the calculation of the adjustment power value for the grid and the calculation of the distributed power source introduction value for the consumer 101. This makes it possible to perform optimal control of the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 during operation based on the economic benefits of utilizing the adjustment power of the power transmission and distribution company 102 and the economic benefits of operating the power source of the consumer 101.

(4) Effects of this embodiment As described above, in this embodiment, the planning device 100 performs an optimal placement analysis of distributed power sources based on a calculation of the adjustment power value of the system and a calculation of the distributed power source introduction value of the consumer 101, and during operation, performs optimal control of the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 based on the economic benefits of utilizing the adjustment power of the power transmission and distribution company 102 and the economic benefits of operating the power source of the consumer 101.

With this configuration, the system operator can optimize system measures, including the use of storage batteries on the consumer side, based on the economic benefits of introducing storage batteries at the consumer 101, and present a system measure method with the greatest overall cost benefits. In addition, the storage batteries can be utilized to the maximum extent possible without impeding the economic operation of the consumer 101.

In other words, by using external resources such as distributed power sources owned by the consumer 101 as a supply and demand adjustment force that temporarily adjusts the supply and demand balance within the area, or as a regulating power source to prevent the current and voltage of the power transmission and distribution network from deviating from the allowable values, it becomes possible to reduce the operating costs of the consumer 101 by utilizing external resources, while suppressing the system operator's own capital investment and enabling effective system operation.

The planning device 100 according to the above-mentioned embodiment can also be configured as follows (1) to (9).

(1) A planning device 100 that formulates a plan for distributed power sources of a consumer 101 includes a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 calculates an expected market value (expected market unit price 1403) of the adjustment capacity based on a predicted value of supply and demand fluctuations in an area 108 (area demand forecast value 903) and a market unit price (market transaction past performance 716) of the supply and demand adjustment capacity of the area 108 based on past transaction performance, calculates the amount of renewable energy power source introduction in the area 108 (renewable energy power source introduction amount 803), the predicted value of supply and demand fluctuations in the area 108 (area demand forecast value 903), and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity of the area 108 based on past transaction performance. Based on the allowable values (distribution equipment allowable values 718) for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in 8, an adjustment power value calculation process (step S4201) is executed to calculate the allowable value exceeding risk 1703 of the distribution line due to reverse and forward currents, and based on the expected market value (expected market unit price 1403) and the allowable value exceeding risk 1703 calculated by the adjustment power value calculation process (step S4201), a system countermeasure planning process (S4203) is executed to plan the placement of the distributed power source (equipment plan optimization result 2608).

(2) In the planning device 100 of (1) above, the processor 501 executes a consumer merit calculation process (S4202) to calculate the amount of storage batteries to be introduced at the base (most economical amount of storage batteries to be introduced 2500) based on the demand forecast value (consumer base demand forecast value 1813) at the base of the consumer 101, the upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at the base (upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced by consumer base 1814), information on candidate distributed power sources (candidates for introduction of distributed power sources 1815), and the electricity price 1816 at the base. In the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 plans a placement plan for the distributed power sources (equipment plan optimization result 2608) based on the amount of storage batteries to be introduced (most economical amount of storage batteries to be introduced 2500) calculated by the consumer merit calculation process (S4202).

(3) In the planning device 100 of (1) above, in the grid countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 acquires the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer 101 and the expansion amount of the power distribution equipment, calculates the market procurement cost that will be incurred when the additional capacity is procured at the base based on the expected market value of the adjustment capacity (expected market unit price 1403), calculates the reduction amount of the allowable value exceedance risk 1703 based on the additional capacity and the expansion amount of the power distribution equipment, calculates an overall evaluation value for the additional capacity and the expansion amount of the power distribution equipment based on the market procurement cost and the reduction amount, and creates a layout plan for the distributed power source (equipment plan optimization result 2608) based on the overall evaluation value.

(4) In the planning device 100 of (3) above, in the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 calculates the distribution equipment reinforcement cost incurred when the distribution equipment is reinforced based on information on the countermeasure equipment 2801 (candidate for reinforcement equipment 2604) included in the reinforcement amount of the distribution equipment, the installation cost 2900 of the countermeasure equipment 2801, and the construction cost 2700 in the area 108, and calculates the overall evaluation value based on the market procurement cost, the reduction amount, and the distribution equipment reinforcement cost.

(5) In the planning device 100 of (3) above, in the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 calculates the consumer battery additional capacity cost incurred by the consumer 101 due to the additional capacity based on the additional capacity and the estimated unit price of the additional capacity (estimated unit price of additional capacity 3004), and calculates the overall evaluation value based on the market procurement cost, the reduction amount, and the consumer battery additional capacity cost.

(6) The planning device 100 that creates a plan for the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 has a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 performs a tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation process (S5101) that calculates tolerance deviation forecast amounts (reverse power flow current and load voltage, first margin value, forward power flow current and load voltage, second margin value) of the distribution lines in the area 108 based on predicted fluctuation values of supply and demand from renewable energy (power distribution equipment tolerance value 718, amount of renewable energy power source introduction in the area 711, periodic weather forecast value 1003, system-specific demand forecast value 719), and a tolerance deviation forecast amount calculation process (S5102) that calculates the tolerance deviation forecast amount (reverse power flow current and load voltage, first margin value, forward power flow current and load voltage, second margin value) of the distribution lines in the area 108 based on predicted fluctuation values of supply and demand from renewable energy (power distribution equipment tolerance value 718, amount of renewable energy power source introduction in the area 711, periodic weather forecast value 1003, system-specific demand forecast value 719). Based on the predicted deviation from the allowable value, the utilization cost (cost unit price 3303) and utilization upper limit 3302 of the adjustment power of the power distribution equipment in the area 108, the utilization cost (cost unit price 3403) and utilization upper limit 3402 of the distributed power source, and the predicted market price unit price 3500 of the supply and demand adjustment power at the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, a procurement plan formulation process (S5102 to S5104) is executed to formulate a procurement plan including the utilization amount of the distributed power source and the procurement amount in the electricity trading market.

(7) In the planning device 110 of (6) above, the processor 501 calculates a consumer site most economical power supply operation planning process (S5201) that searches for the amount of charge and discharge by time period of the distributed power supply based on the predicted power generation amount of renewable energy of the distributed power supply (a predicted value of solar power generation power one hour ahead calculated based on the demand forecast value 2100 for one hour ahead at the consumer site and the periodic weather forecast value 1003 of average solar radiation in the weather data 1001), the time-of-day charge 2400 at the consumer site 101, and the upper limit of the operational usage amount of the consumer 101 (consumer operational usage amount upper limit 3802), and calculates the surplus available amount (operational usage amount) of the distributed power supply based on the charge and discharge amount searched for by the consumer site most economical power supply operation planning process (S5201). A surplus available amount calculation process (S5202) is executed to calculate the surplus available amount (the result of subtracting the most economical charge/discharge amount by time period of the distributed power source from the amount upper limit 3803), and a control plan creation process (S5203 to S5205) is executed to create a control plan by allocating the amount of usage that minimizes the cost based on the surplus available amount calculated by the surplus available amount calculation process (S5202) (the result of subtracting the most economical charge/discharge amount by time period of the distributed power source from the operational usage amount upper limit 3803), the usage cost (cost unit price 3303) and usage amount upper limit 3302 of the power distribution equipment, the usage cost (cost unit price 3403) and usage amount upper limit 3402 of the distributed power source, and the usage cost (activation cost unit price 3603) and usage amount upper limit 3602 of the market procurement capacity.

(8) In the planning device 100 described in (7) above, in the control plan formulation process (S5203 to S5205), the processor 501 formulates the control plan with the constraints of maintaining the allowable values for each distribution line and maintaining the supply and demand balance in the area 108.

(9) The planning device 100 that formulates a plan for a distributed power source of a consumer 101 includes a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 performs an acquisition process (steps S4701, S4702) to acquire the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer 101 and the amount of reinforcement of the power distribution equipment, and calculates the market procurement cost incurred when the additional capacity is procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, the power distribution equipment reinforcement cost incurred when the power distribution equipment is reinforced, the reduction amount of the distribution line allowable value exceedance risk 1703 based on the margin of the current allowable value and the margin of the voltage allowable value when the additional capacity and the reinforcement amount of the power distribution equipment are applied, and the consumer storage capacity that will be incurred when the additional capacity is added to the storage battery of the consumer based on the additional capacity and the estimated unit price of the additional capacity (estimated unit price of additional capacity 3004). and the battery additional capacity cost. A first calculation process (steps S4703 to S4706) is executed to calculate at least two of these. A second calculation process (step S4707) is executed to calculate an overall evaluation value based on the first calculation result calculated by the first calculation process (steps S4703 to S4706) and to plan the configuration of the power distribution equipment specified by the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the power distribution equipment that were the basis for calculating the overall evaluation value as a layout plan for the distributed power source (equipment plan optimization result 2608). An output process (steps S4709, S4710) is executed to output the second calculation result calculated by the second calculation process (step S4707).

The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, but includes various modified examples and equivalent configurations within the spirit of the appended claims. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to having all of the configurations described. Furthermore, a portion of the configuration of one embodiment may be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment. Furthermore, the configuration of another embodiment may be added to the configuration of one embodiment. Furthermore, other configurations may be added, deleted, or replaced with part of the configuration of each embodiment.

Furthermore, each of the configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. described above may be realized in part or in whole in hardware, for example by designing them as integrated circuits, or may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function.

Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a storage device such as a memory, hard disk, or SSD (Solid State Drive), or in a recording medium such as an IC (Integrated Circuit) card, SD card, or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc).

In addition, the control lines and information lines shown are those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily represent all control lines and information lines necessary for implementation. In reality, it is safe to assume that almost all components are interconnected.

100 Planning device 101 Consumer 102 Power transmission and distribution business operator 103 Energy resource provider 201 Power transmission business operator 202 Power distribution business operator 300 Supply and demand adjustment market site 400 Planning system 401 to 403 Electronic terminal 501 Processor 502 Storage device 601 Facility planning unit 602 Operation planning unit 611 Adjustment power value calculation unit 612 Consumer merit calculation unit 613 System countermeasure planning unit 621 Procurement planning unit 622 Control planning unit 701 Period supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 702 Area adjustment power sufficiency calculation unit 703 Adjustment power market unit price reference value calculation unit 704 Distribution line permissible capacity excess risk calculation unit 1801 Base-by-base renewable energy power generation prediction unit 1802 Base-by-base most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1821 Storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1822 Re-economic operation simulation unit 1823 Economic merit calculation unit 2400 Time-of-day charge 2601 Facility plan assumption unit 2602 Facility plan calculation unit 2611 Customer-site-specific adjustment power additional battery capacity assumption unit 2612 Distribution line-specific equipment reinforcement amount assumption unit 2621 Market procurement cost calculation unit 2622 Distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2623 Distribution line allowable value exceedance risk reduction amount calculation unit 2624 Customer battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2625 Total economics calculation unit 3201 Distribution line-specific allowable value deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3202 Allowable value maintenance plan creation unit 3203 Area-specific adjustment power required amount calculation unit 3204 Market procurement amount determination unit 3701 Customer-site-specific most economical power source operation plan creation unit 3702 Battery surplus usable amount calculation unit 3703 Distribution line-specific allowable value deviation amount check unit 3704 Supply and demand gap check unit 3705 Cost minimum adjustment power allocation unit

Claims (10)

A planning device that formulates a plan for a consumer's distributed power source,
A processor for executing a program and a storage device for storing the program,
The processor,
an adjustment capacity value calculation process for calculating an expected market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of the adjustment capacity for the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation in the area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past transaction records, and for calculating a risk of exceeding the allowable value of the distribution line due to reverse current and forward current based on the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area, the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation in the area, and the allowable values for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in the area;
A planning process for planning a layout plan of the distributed power sources based on the expected market value calculated by the adjustment capacity value calculation process and the allowable value exceeding risk;
A planning device which executes the above. The planning device according to claim 1 ,
The processor executes a consumer merit calculation process to calculate the amount of storage battery introduction at the consumer's base based on a demand forecast value at the consumer's base, an upper limit of the amount of storage battery introduction possible at the base, information on candidate distributed power sources, and an electricity price at the base,
In the planning process, the processor plans a deployment plan for the distributed power sources based on the amount of storage battery introduction calculated by the consumer merit calculation process.
A planning device comprising: The planning device according to claim 1 ,
In the planning process, the processor acquires the additional capacity of the consumer's storage battery and the amount of expansion of the power distribution equipment, calculates a market procurement cost that will be incurred when the additional capacity is procured at the consumer's base based on the expected market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity, calculates a reduction in the allowable value exceeding risk based on the additional capacity and the amount of expansion of the power distribution equipment, calculates a comprehensive evaluation value for the additional capacity and the amount of expansion of the power distribution equipment based on the market procurement cost and the reduction amount, and plans a deployment plan for the distributed power sources based on the comprehensive evaluation value.
A planning device comprising: The planning device according to claim 3,
In the planning process, the processor calculates a distribution equipment reinforcement cost that will be incurred when the distribution equipment is reinforced based on information on the countermeasure equipment included in the reinforcement amount of the distribution equipment, the installation cost of the countermeasure equipment, and the construction cost in the area, and calculates the comprehensive evaluation value based on the market procurement cost, the reduction amount, and the distribution equipment reinforcement cost.
A planning device comprising: The planning device according to claim 3,
In the planning process, the processor calculates a consumer battery additional capacity cost incurred by the consumer due to the additional capacity based on the additional capacity and an estimated unit price of the additional capacity, and calculates the overall evaluation value based on the market procurement cost, the reduction amount, and the consumer battery additional capacity cost.
A planning device comprising: A planning device that formulates a plan for a consumer's distributed power source,
A processor for executing a program and a storage device for storing the program,
The processor,
A calculation process for calculating a predicted deviation amount of a distribution line in an area based on a predicted fluctuation value of supply and demand due to renewable energy;
a procurement plan formulation process for formulating a procurement plan including a usage amount of the distributed power source and a procurement amount in the electricity trading market based on the tolerance deviation prediction amount calculated by the calculation process, the usage cost and usage upper limit of the supply and demand adjustment power of the power distribution facility in the area, the usage cost and usage upper limit of the distributed power source, and a market price prediction unit price of the supply and demand adjustment power in the electricity trading market;
A planning device which executes the above. The planning device according to claim 6,
The processor,
A search process for searching for a time-zone-specific charge/discharge amount of the distributed power source based on a predicted power generation amount of the renewable energy of the distributed power source, a time-zone-specific charge at the customer's base, and an upper limit of an operational usage amount of the customer;
a surplus available capacity calculation process for calculating a surplus available capacity of the distributed power source based on the charge/discharge capacity searched for by the search process;
a control plan formulation process for formulating a control plan by executing a usage amount allocation that minimizes costs based on the surplus available amount calculated by the surplus available amount calculation process, the usage cost and usage amount upper limit of the power distribution facility, the usage cost and usage amount upper limit of the distributed power source, and the usage cost and usage amount upper limit of market procurement capacity;
A planning device which executes the above. The planning device according to claim 7,
In the control plan formulation process, the processor formulates the control plan under constraints of maintaining an allowable value for each distribution line and maintaining a supply and demand balance in the area.
A planning device comprising: A planning device that formulates a plan for a consumer's distributed power source,
A processor for executing a program and a storage device for storing the program,
The processor,
An acquisition process for acquiring an additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer and an increase in the amount of power distribution equipment;
a first calculation process for calculating at least two of a market procurement cost incurred when the additional capacity is procured from a supply and demand adjustment market, a distribution equipment expansion cost incurred when the distribution equipment is expanded, a reduction amount of a distribution line tolerance exceeding risk based on a margin value of a current tolerance value and a margin value of a voltage tolerance value when the additional capacity and the expansion amount of the distribution equipment are applied, and a consumer battery additional capacity cost incurred when the additional capacity is added to the consumer battery based on the additional capacity and an expected unit price of the additional capacity;
a second calculation process of calculating a comprehensive evaluation value based on a first calculation result calculated by the first calculation process, and formulating a configuration of the power distribution equipment specified by the additional capacity and the reinforcement amount of the power distribution equipment, which are the basis for calculating the comprehensive evaluation value, as a layout plan of the distributed power sources;
an output process of outputting a second calculation result calculated by the second calculation process;
A planning device which executes the above. A planning method executed by a planning device that plans a plan for a consumer's distributed power source, comprising:
The planning device includes a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program,
The processor,
an adjustment capacity value calculation process for calculating an expected market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of the adjustment capacity for the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation in the area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past transaction records, and for calculating a risk of exceeding the allowable value of the distribution line due to reverse current and forward current based on the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area, the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation in the area, and the allowable values for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in the area;
a system countermeasure planning process for planning a layout plan of the distributed power sources based on the expected market value calculated by the adjustment capacity value calculation process and the allowable value exceeding risk;
A planning method comprising the steps of:

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