JP2022120506A - Plan drafting device and plan drafting method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a plan drafting device and a plan drafting method, capable of reducing a cost of grid measures for a power transmission and distribution provider, while improving a benefit of introducing a storage battery for consumers.SOLUTION: A plan drafting device 100, which drafts a plan pertaining to a distributed power supply of a consumer, includes: an adjustment force value calculation unit 611 in which a presumed market value of a supply-demand adjustment force is calculated on the basis of a sufficiency degree of the adjustment force for a prediction value of a supply-demand variation amount in an area and a market unit price of the supply-demand adjustment force of the area based on a past transaction result, and an allowable value excess risk of a power distribution line based on reverse power flow and forward power flow is calculated on the basis of a power introduction amount of renewable energy in the area, the prediction value of the supply-demand amount in the area, and allowable values of a current and a voltage of a power distribution facility in the area; and a grid measurement drafting unit 621 for executing a drafting process in which an arrangement plan of the distributed power supply is drafted on the basis of the presumed market value and the allowable value excess risk calculated in the adjustment force value calculation unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

The present invention relates to a planning device and a planning method for planning a distributed power supply.

In the system operation of the power transmission and distribution network in the electric power field, operations for system stabilization such as frequency control and supply and demand balance adjustment in the supply area are performed. Especially in recent years, the spread of renewable energy such as solar power and wind power has made it easier for power grids to fluctuate the supply and demand balance. is.

Regarding supply and demand balance adjustment, the establishment of a supply and demand adjustment market has been promoted due to the recent electric power system reform. In addition to the supply and demand adjustment equipment owned by the general power transmission and distribution business operator, through the supply and demand adjustment market, the supply and demand gap within the area under the jurisdiction of the company is compensated for, and the adjustment capacity (ΔkW + kWh) to respond to supply and demand fluctuations is secured. It will be done.

In addition, due to the increase in distributed power sources (distributed power sources) such as photovoltaic power generation, the number of places where the allowable current that can flow in the power transmission and distribution network reaches a predetermined value is increasing rapidly. For this reason, system measures and facility planning that do not exceed the facility allowance of the power transmission and distribution network, such as reviewing and strengthening the facility configuration accompanying the diversification of power sources, are required.

Patent Documents 1 to 3 below are disclosed as various prior arts related to equipment planning methods for power transmission and distribution networks that contribute to system stabilization. Patent Literature 1 describes, "Providing a support system capable of determining conditions to satisfy a person who desires interconnection of distributed power sources while stabilizing power supply quality when interconnecting distributed power sources to a power distribution network." . Patent Literature 2 describes that "the voltage of the entire distribution system is suppressed within an appropriate range, and the optimum arrangement of power storage devices is determined to reduce distribution loss." Patent Literature 3 states, "It is possible to easily create a facility enhancement plan that eliminates feeder feeder current constraint violations, section voltage constraint violations, and section current constraint violations and achieves an optimal system configuration without relying on human intervention." Have been described.

JP 2007-110809 A JP 2013-143839 A JP-A-2001-268793

Patent document 1 and patent document 2 are methods for determining the placement of distributed power sources such as optimal storage batteries based on the allowable value of distribution lines and the suppression of distribution loss in order to keep the voltage and current of the distribution system within an appropriate range. be. Patent Document 3 creates a facility enhancement plan with an optimal system configuration that eliminates violations of current/voltage allowable values from various construction plans such as new line installation, division, and new installation of SVR (Step Voltage Regulator). It is a way to

However, these methods are based on the premise that the grid operator, such as a power transmission and distribution company, will implement system stabilization measures such as equipment renewal on its own. There is a problem that distribution system measures including utilization of

An object of the present invention is to reduce the cost of system countermeasures for the system operator while improving the benefits of introducing a storage battery for the consumer.

A planning device, which is one aspect of the invention disclosed in the present application, is a planning device for planning a distributed power supply of a consumer, comprising a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program. and the processor determines the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of the supply and demand adjustment capacity for the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation amount in the area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past transaction results. Calculating an assumed market value, based on the amount of power supply of renewable energy in the area, the predicted value of the fluctuation of supply and demand in the area, and the allowable values for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in the area. , based on the control power value calculation process for calculating the allowable value excess risk of the distribution line based on the reverse tide and the normal tide, and the assumed market value and the allowable value excess risk calculated by the control power value calculation process, the distributed power supply and a system countermeasure planning process for drawing up an arrangement plan for the

According to the representative embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to reduce system measures and operation costs of power transmission and distribution companies while improving the benefits of introducing storage batteries for consumers. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be clarified by the following description of the embodiments.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing an example 1 of a relationship between stakeholders regarding facility planning by a planning device. FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing relationship example 2 between stakeholders regarding facility planning by the planning device. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between stakeholders regarding operation planning by the planning device. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a configuration example of the planning system according to this embodiment. FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration example of a computer. FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the planning device. FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of a control power value calculation unit. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the amount of renewable energy power introduced within the area. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of actual area demand/predicted values. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a period weather record/predicted value. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of in-area bidding power source information. FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of distribution equipment adjustment capacity. FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of past market transaction results. FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a control power market value calculation result. FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a power distribution equipment allowable value. FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of system-specific demand forecast values. FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram of an example of the permissible value remaining margin for each distribution line. FIG. 18 is a block diagram of a functional configuration example of a customer merit calculation unit. FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an installable renewable energy power supply scale for each customer base. FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of customer base location conditions. FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a demand forecast value at a customer base. FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced by customer site. FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram of an example of an introduction distributed power supply candidate. FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of electricity charges. FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the most economical storage battery introduction amount by customer base. FIG. 26 is a block diagram illustrating an example of the functional configuration of a system countermeasure planning unit; FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of points where distribution system facilities can be enhanced. FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram of an example of an augmentation facility candidate. FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram of an example of the unit cost of power distribution equipment enhancement. FIG. 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an estimated additional capacity unit price of a consumer's storage battery. FIG. 31 is an explanatory diagram of an example of the facility plan optimization result. FIG. 32 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of a procurement planning unit. FIG. 33 is an explanatory diagram of an example of distribution equipment adjustment capacity utilization cost/utilization upper limit. FIG. 34 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a consumer distributed power source usage cost/utilization upper limit. FIG. 35 is an explanatory diagram of an example of market price prediction values. FIG. 36 is an explanatory diagram of an example of market procurement adjustment power usage cost/utilization upper limit. FIG. 37 is a block diagram of a functional configuration example of a control planning unit; FIG. 38 is an explanatory diagram of an example of the upper limit of the amount of operation/utilization of the consumer's storage battery. FIG. 39 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount. FIG. 40 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the area demand-supply balance monitoring amount. FIG. 41 is an explanatory diagram of an example of a consumer distributed power supply control amount. FIG. 42 is a flow chart showing a processing procedure for facility planning by the planning device. FIG. 43 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the adjustment power value calculation processing (step S4201). FIG. 44 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the control power value calculation result on the electronic terminal of the system operator. FIG. 45 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing procedure example of the customer merit calculation processing (step S4202). FIG. 46 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an input screen displayed on the consumer's electronic terminal. FIG. 47 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the system countermeasure planning process (step S4203). FIG. 48 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the facility plan optimization result on the system operator's electronic terminal. FIG. 49 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the facility plan optimization result on the consumer's electronic terminal. FIG. 50 is a flow chart showing an example of a processing procedure for making an operation plan by the plan making device. FIG. 51 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the procurement planning process (step S5001). FIG. 52 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the control planning processing (step S5002).

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. The planning apparatus disclosed in the present embodiment executes distributed power source optimal layout analysis based on the calculation of the supply and demand adjustment capability value for the system and the calculation of the distributed power source introduction value of the customer. Furthermore, during operation, the planning device executes optimal control of the distributed power sources of the consumer based on the economic merit of utilizing the supply and demand adjustment capacity of the grid operator and the economic merit of the power source operation of the consumer.

<Relationships between stakeholders>
FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing an example 1 of a relationship between stakeholders regarding facility planning by a planning device. The planning device 100 acquires customer base information from the customer 101 , acquires facility information from the power transmission and distribution operator 102 that is the system operator, and acquires distributed power supply provision information from the energy resource provider 103 .

The consumer base information is information indicating specifications of distributed power sources that can be introduced at the base of the consumer 101 (consumer base). The facility information is information indicating facilities used for system operation within the area. Distributed power sources are power sources distributed to scattered consumers, such as storage batteries and photovoltaic power generation equipment. The energy resource provider 103 is a business that sells and provides distributed power sources. The distributed power supply provision information is information indicating the price, specifications, etc. of the distributed power supply to be provided.

The planning device 100 draws up an optimal facility plan, for example, an economic plan that secures the area supply and demand adjustment capacity (hereinafter simply referred to as adjustment capacity) and maintains the facility allowance, while referring to the various types of information described above. It provides the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 with the optimal facility planning results. In addition, the planning device 100 draws up an economical distributed power supply introduction plan for the customer 101 by referring to the various types of information described above, and provides the customer 101 with the distributed power supply introduction planning result.

At this time, depending on the capacity of the consumer storage battery used by the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 for system operation, even if a part of the storage battery introduction cost is borne by the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 or the intermediary business operator that provides the planning device 100 good. Further, the planning device 100 notifies the energy resource provider 103 of distributed power supply provision information to be introduced to the consumer 101 based on the distributed power supply introduction plan.

FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing relationship example 2 between stakeholders regarding facility planning by the planning device 100 . FIG. 2 is a modification of the relationship between stakeholders in FIG. In this case, the planning device 100 provides the power transmission company 201 with facility planning results related to ensuring area supply and demand adjustment capacity for adjusting the supply and demand balance of the entire area. The planning device 100 then provides the power distribution company 202 with the result of economical node planning that maintains supply and demand adjustment capacity and facility capacity within the area under the jurisdiction of the power distribution company.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between stakeholders regarding operation planning by the planning device 100. As shown in FIG. The planning device 100 acquires equipment information of the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 and distributed power source information that can be used for system operation, formulates a distributed power source procurement and operation plan, and transmits and distributes the optimal operation planning result. Presented to business operator 102 . The power transmission and distribution business operator 102 may receive trading power supply information via the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 based on a distributed power supply procurement plan to procure distributed power supplies to be used.

(1) Configuration of planning system <System configuration example>
FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a configuration example of the planning system according to this embodiment. The planning system 400 includes the planning apparatus 100, the electronic terminal 401 of the consumer 101, the electronic terminals 402 of the power transmission and distribution business operator 102, the power transmission business operator 201, and the power distribution business operator 202 (hereinafter referred to as system operator), and energy and an electronic terminal 403 of the resource provider 103 . These are communicably connected via networks such as the Internet, LANs (Local Area Networks), and WANs (Wide Area Networks). The planning device 100 may be a local server installed at a specific location, or may be provided in a SaaS (Software as a Service) form as a cloud server.

The electronic terminal 401 receives input of information such as customer base information from the customer 101 . The electronic terminal 402 receives inputs such as equipment information from the system operator. The electronic terminal 403 receives inputs such as distributed power supply information provided by the energy resource provider 103 .

<Hardware configuration example of computer (planning device 100, electronic terminals 401 to 403)>
FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration example of a computer. The computer 500 has a processor 501 , a storage device 502 , an input device 503 , an output device 504 and a communication interface (communication IF) 505 . Processor 501 , storage device 502 , input device 503 , output device 504 and communication IF 505 are connected by bus 506 . Processor 501 controls computer 500 . A storage device 502 serves as a work area for the processor 501 . Also, the storage device 502 is a non-temporary or temporary recording medium that stores various programs and data. Examples of the storage device 502 include ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), HDD (Hard Disk Drive), and flash memory. The input device 503 inputs data. Input devices 503 include, for example, a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, numeric keypad, scanner, and microphone. The output device 504 outputs data. Output devices 504 include, for example, displays, printers, and speakers. Communication IF 505 connects to a network and transmits and receives data.

(2) Planning Function Next, the planning function of the planning device 100 will be described. This planning function has two functions: a distributed power source optimum arrangement analysis function and an optimum control function. The distributed power source optimum layout analysis function is a function of executing the distributed power source optimal layout analysis based on the calculation of the power system adjustment capability value and the calculation of the distributed power source introduction value of the customer 101 . The optimal control function is a function that executes optimal control of the distributed power supply of the customer 101 based on the economic merit of utilizing the coordination power of the system operator and the economic merit of the power supply operation of the customer 101 during operation. .

<Functional configuration example of planning device 100>
FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the planning device 100. As shown in FIG. The planning device 100 has an equipment planning section 601 and an operation planning section 602 . Specifically, the facility planning unit 601 and the operation planning unit 602 are functions realized by causing the processor 501 to execute the program stored in the storage device 502 shown in FIG. 5, for example.

The facility plan drafting unit 601 drafts a facility plan. The facility plan is the result of planning where and how much capacity distributed power sources are to be installed. Specifically, for example, the equipment planning unit 601 has a responsiveness value calculation unit 611 , a customer merit calculation unit 612 , and a system countermeasure planning unit 613 .

The operational plan formulation unit 602 formulates an operational plan. An operation plan is a drafting result of how to operate distributed power sources based on a facility plan. Specifically, for example, the operation planning unit 602 has a procurement planning unit 621 and a control planning unit 622 . Details of each function of the equipment planning section 601 and the operation planning section 602 will be described below.

<Functional configuration example of adjustment power value calculation unit 611>
FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the adjustment power value calculation unit 611. As shown in FIG. The control power value calculation unit 611 includes a period supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 701, an area control power sufficiency calculation unit 702, a control power market unit price reference value calculation unit 703, and an allowable amount excess risk calculation unit for each distribution line 704. have.

The periodical supply and demand fluctuation amount forecasting unit 701 predicts the periodical supply and demand fluctuation amount based on the area renewable power introduction amount 711 , the area demand actual/predicted value 712 , and the period weather actual/predicted value 713 . The period supply and demand fluctuation amount is the supply and demand fluctuation amount of electric power in a predetermined period, that is, the amount of deviation from the previously predicted supply and demand amount. Specific examples of the amount of renewable energy introduced in the area 711, the area demand record/prediction value 712, and the period weather record/prediction value 713 will be described.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an in-area renewable power introduction amount 711 . The intra-area renewable power introduction amount 711 is data having the introduction amount of renewable energy power sources (for example, solar panels PV) in the area 801 (hereinafter referred to as renewable energy power introduction amount 803). The grid ID 802 is identification information indicating to which grid the renewable energy power source belongs, power transmission/distribution, power transmission, or power distribution.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the actual/predicted area demand value 712. As shown in FIG. The area demand actual/predicted values 712 are actual values (area demand actual values) 902 and predicted values (area demand predicted values) 903 in time series (specified by the time stamp 901 ) of demand for each area 801 .

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the period weather performance/prediction value 713. As shown in FIG. The actual/predicted period weather values 713 are actual values (actual period weather values) 1002 and predicted values (predicted period weather values) 1003 of the weather data 1001 for each area 801 in time series (specified by the time stamp 901). Weather data 1001 includes, for example, average temperature, average precipitation, average solar radiation, relative humidity, and weather, as shown in FIG. The detailed prediction processing of the period supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 701 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7 , the area coordination capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the area coordination capacity sufficiency level based on the intra-area bidding power source information 714 and the distribution facility coordination capacity 715 . The area adjustment capacity sufficiency degree is the sufficiency degree of the adjustment capacity within the area 801 with respect to the predicted period supply and demand fluctuation amount predicted by the period supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 701 . A specific example of the intra-area bidding power source information 714 and the power distribution facility adjustment capability 715 will be described.

FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the intra-area bidding power supply information 714. As shown in FIG. The intra-area bid power source information 714 is information relating to bid power sources within the area 801 . The ID 1101 is identification information that uniquely identifies the bid power source. Owner 1102 is the grid operator that owns the tendered power source identified by ID 1101 . The type 1103 indicates the type of bid power source. The average adjustment amount 1104 indicates the average value [kW] of the adjustment amount of bid power.

FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution facility adjustment capacity 715. As shown in FIG. The distribution facility adjustment capacity 715 is information indicating the adjustment capacity of the distribution facility. The type 1203 indicates the type of distribution facility. The area 801 , system ID 802 , type 1203 and average adjustment amount 1204 define the control power of the power distribution facility for each control power ID 1201 . Detailed calculation processing of the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7, the control power market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 calculates the control power market unit price reference value based on the sufficiency level 1402 calculated by the area control power sufficiency level calculation unit 702 and the market transaction past record 716. Calculate The controllability market unit price reference value, which is the calculation result, is stored in the storage device 502 as the controllability market value calculation result 717 . Specific examples of the market transaction past record 716 and the control power market value calculation result 717 will be described.

FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market transaction past record 716. As shown in FIG. The market transaction past performance 716 is information on the past performance of market transaction for each area 801 . The date and time 1301 is the date and time when the market transaction was performed in the area 801 . The prior sufficiency 1302 indicates the sufficiency 1402 of the area 801 at the date and time 1301 . The actual market procurement unit price 1303 indicates the actual value of the market procurement unit price at the date and time 1301 of the area 801 .

FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the control power market value calculation result 717. As shown in FIG. The controllability market value calculation result 717 indicates the calculation result of the market value of controllability for each area 801 by the controllability market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 . The date and time 1401 is the date and time when the calculation result was calculated. The sufficiency level 1402 is a calculation result by the area adjustment capacity sufficiency level calculation unit 702 . The assumed market unit price 1403 is the control power market unit price reference value calculated by the control power market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 . Detailed calculation processing of the control power market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 7, the distribution line-by-distribution line permissible amount excess risk calculation unit 704 calculates the area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, the area demand forecast value 903 of the area demand actual / forecast value 712, the distribution equipment allowable value 718, the system Based on the separate demand forecast value 719, the permissible amount excess risk for each distribution line is calculated. The distribution line-by-distribution line permissible amount excess risk, which is the calculation result, is stored in the storage device 502 as the distribution line-by-distribution line-by-distribution line permissible value remaining margin 720 . Specific examples of the distribution facility allowable value 718, the system-specific demand forecast value 719, and the distribution line-specific allowable value remaining margin 720 will be described.

FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution equipment allowable value 718. As shown in FIG. The distribution equipment allowable value 718 is an allowable value for the distribution equipment of the system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801, and specifically has a current allowable value 1501 and a voltage allowable value 1502, for example.

FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the system-specific demand forecast value 719. As shown in FIG. The system-specific demand forecast value 719 is a time-series (specified by the time stamp 901 ) demand forecast value for each system specified by the system ID 802 .

FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the permissible value remaining margin 720 for each distribution line. The permissible value remaining margin 720 for each distribution line is a margin value (permissible current value margin) 1701 of the permissible current value 1501 and a margin value (permissible voltage value margin) of the permissible voltage value 1502 for each system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801. ) 1702 and a risk exceeding tolerance 1703 . The permissible value excess risk 1703 is a calculated value indicating the risk of exceeding the permissible current value 1501 and the permissible voltage value 1502 for the distribution line. Detailed calculation processing of the permissible amount excess risk calculation unit 704 for each distribution line will be described later. Next, details of the customer merit calculation unit 612 will be described.

<Functional Configuration Example of Customer Merit Calculation Unit 612>
FIG. 18 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the customer merit calculation unit 612. As shown in FIG. The customer merit calculation unit 612 has a site-by-site renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 1801 and a site-by-site most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 . The site-based most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 includes a storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 , a re-economy operation simulation unit 1822 , and an economic merit calculation unit 1823 .

A site-by-site renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 1801 predicts photovoltaic power generation by site based on a renewable energy power supply installable scale by customer site 1811, a customer site location condition 1812, and a seasonal weather forecast value 1003. Predict quantity. A specific example of the renewable energy power supply installable scale by customer base 1811 and the customer base location conditions 1812 will be described.

FIG. 19 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of renewable energy power supply installable scale 1811 by customer base. The renewable energy power supply installable scale 1811 by customer base is the renewable energy power supply installable scale 1902 for each customer base in the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901 .

FIG. 20 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the customer base location condition 1812. As shown in FIG. The customer base location condition 1812 is the coordinates 2001 (longitude and latitude) and the annual average solar radiation amount 2002 for each customer base within the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901 . Detailed prediction processing of the site-by-site renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 1801 will be described later.

Returning to FIG. 18 , the site-by-site most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 calculates the customer site demand forecast value 1813 , the customer site-by-customer site storage battery introduction maximum amount limit 1814 , the introduction distributed power supply candidate 1815 , and the electricity rate 1816 . Based on this, the most economical storage battery introduction amount for each location is calculated. The most economical storage battery introduction amount by site is the most economical storage battery introduction amount at the site. Concrete examples of the demand forecast value 1813 at the customer site, the upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced by customer site 1814, the candidates for introduction of distributed power sources 1815, and the electricity rate 1816 will be described.

FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the demand forecast value 1813 at the customer base. The customer base demand forecast value 1813 is the time-series (specified by the time stamp 901) demand forecast value 2100 for each customer base.

FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an upper limit 1814 of storage battery introduction capacity by customer site. The maximum amount of storage battery that can be introduced by customer site 1814 is the upper limit value of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced for each customer site that is identified by the site ID 1901 .

FIG. 23 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the introduction distributed power supply candidate 1815. As shown in FIG. The distributed power supply candidate 1815 is identified by an ID 2301 that uniquely identifies an installable distributed power supply, a model number 2302 of the distributed power supply, a manufacturer 2303 that manufactured the distributed power supply, a capacity 2304 of the distributed power supply, and a price 2305 of the distributed power supply. It is a candidate for power supply.

FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of electricity charges 1816. As shown in FIG. The electricity rate 1816 is the hourly rate 2400 of the consumer base within the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901 .

Returning to FIG. 18, the most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 for each site includes a storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, a re-economy operation simulation unit 1822, and an economic merit calculation unit 1823 in order to specify the storage battery introduction amount for re-economy. and perform optimization calculations using The optimization result of the optimization calculation is stored in the storage device 502 as the most economical storage battery introduction amount 1817 by customer site.

FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the most economical storage battery introduction amount 1817 by customer base. The maximum economic storage battery introduction amount 1817 by customer base is the maximum economic storage battery introduction amount 2500 for each system (specified by the system ID 802 ) of the customer base in the area 801 identified by the base ID 1901 .

Detailed processing of the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, the re-economy operation simulation unit 1822, and the economic merit calculation unit 1823 shown in FIG. 18 will be described later. Next, details of the system countermeasure planning unit 613 shown in FIG. 7 will be described.

<Functional configuration example of system countermeasure planning unit 613>
FIG. 26 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the system countermeasure planning unit 613. As shown in FIG. The system countermeasure planning unit 613 has an equipment plan assumption unit 2601 and an equipment plan calculation unit 2602 . The equipment plan assumption unit 2601 has an additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611 for adjustment capacity by customer site and an equipment enhancement amount assumption unit 2612 by distribution line.

The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 includes a market procurement cost calculation unit 2621, a distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622, a distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623, a consumer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624, and a total economy and a sex calculation unit 2625 . The facility plan assumption unit 2601 and the facility plan calculation unit 2602 will be specifically described.

The additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611 for regulating power by customer base based on the most economic storage battery introduction amount 1817 by customer base and the upper limit of storage battery introduction capacity by customer base 1814, Assume additional battery capacity. The additional storage battery capacity for regulating power by customer site is an additional capacity used for system operation as regulating power in addition to the operating capacity of the customer 101 itself when the storage battery is introduced to the customer site.

The distribution line facility enhancement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes a distribution line facility enhancement amount based on the distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603 and the enhancement facility candidate 2604 . The amount of facility enhancement by distribution line is the amount of enhancement of distribution facilities for each distribution line. A specific example of the distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603 and the enhancement facility candidate 2604 will be described.

FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603. As shown in FIG. The distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603 is a point where the distribution facility of the distribution system can be enhanced. The point is specified by area 801 and system ID 802, and further includes construction cost 2700 of the system.

FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the augmented facility candidate 2604. As shown in FIG. The enhancement facility candidate 2604 lists data related to power distribution facilities that are candidates for enhancement. 2803 and .

Returning to FIG. 26 , the facility plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the adjustment power market value calculation result 717, the distribution line-specific allowable value remaining margin 720, the distribution facility reinforcement cost unit price 2605, and the consumer storage battery additional capacity estimated unit price 2606. Based on this, the facility plan assumed by the facility plan assumption unit 2601 (additional storage battery capacity for control power by customer base, facility enhancement amount by distribution line) is calculated. A specific example of the power distribution facility enhancement cost unit price 2605 and the consumer storage battery additional capacity assumed unit price 2606 will be described.

FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a power distribution facility enhancement cost unit price 2605 . The power distribution facility enhancement cost unit price 2605 indicates the installation cost 2900 per unit of the countermeasure device 2801 that is the power distribution facility that is a candidate for enhancement.

FIG. 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consumer storage battery additional capacity estimated unit price 2606. As shown in FIG. A consumer storage battery additional capacity estimated unit price 2606 is an estimated unit price of additional capacity when the customer 101 adds a storage battery, and includes an ID 3001 that uniquely identifies the storage battery, a storage battery model number 3002, and a storage battery manufacturer 3003. , and an additional capacity assumed unit price 3004 of the storage battery.

Returning to FIG. 26 , the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the market procurement cost by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621, the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation by the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622, Based on the distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation and the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation by the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation part 2624, the total economic efficiency calculation part 2625 performs comprehensive economic efficiency calculation.

Then, if the specified termination conditions (for example, reaching a predetermined number of calculations, elapsing of a predetermined calculation time, reaching a predetermined target value) are not met, the facility plan assumption unit 2601 is made to assume the facility plan again. When the specified termination condition is reached, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 stores the equipment plan consisting of the optimum combination in the storage device 502 as the equipment plan optimization result 2608 .

FIG. 31 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the facility plan optimization result 2608. As shown in FIG. The facility plan optimization result 2608 indicates the optimum facility plan (current allowable value margin 3101, voltage allowable value margin 3102, additional resource 3103) for the system identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801. An allowable current value margin 3101 and an allowable voltage value margin 3102 indicate margin values before and after updating. The additional resource 3103 includes, for example, the added countermeasure device 2801, the base ID 1901 of the deployed customer base (for example, "customer storage battery #2"), and its additional capacity (00 kW). Since there are cases where countermeasures can be taken only with the consumer's storage battery, there are also entries without the added countermeasure device 2801 . Next, the details of the procurement planning section 621 shown in FIG. 7 will be described.

<Functional Configuration Example of Procurement Planning Unit 621>
FIG. 32 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the procurement planning unit 621. As shown in FIG. The procurement planning unit 621 includes a distribution line-by-distribution line permissible value deviation prediction amount calculation unit 3201, a permissible value maintenance planning unit 3202, an area-by-area adjustment capacity required amount calculation unit 3203, and a distributed power supply usage amount/market procurement amount for each customer. and a determination unit 3204 .

The distribution line-by-distribution allowable value deviation forecast amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the distribution based on the distribution equipment allowable value 718, the area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, the period weather forecast value 1003, and the system-specific demand forecast value 719. Calculate the allowable value deviation predicted amount for each wire. The distribution line-by-distribution line-specific allowable value deviation predicted amount is a predicted value of the amount of deviation from the allowable values of current and voltage for each distribution line.

The permissible value maintenance plan formulation unit 3202 calculates the permissible value deviation predicted amount for each distribution line calculated by the permissible value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201 for each distribution line, the distribution equipment adjustment power utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211, and the demand distribution Based on the power supply cost/usage upper limit 3212, a permissible value maintenance plan is drawn up. A tolerance maintenance plan is a plan for maintaining the current and voltage of distribution lines within tolerance.

The area-by-area required control power amount calculation unit 3203 calculates the area-by-area required control power amount based on the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903 . The area-specific control power requirement is the control power required for each area.

A consumer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the allowable value maintenance plan for distribution lines formulated by the allowable value maintenance plan planning unit 3202 and the area-by-area calculated by the area-by-area control power required amount calculation unit 3203 Based on the required amount of controllability, the distribution facility controllability utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power supply utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3212, and the market price forecast value 3213, the demander distributed power supply utilization/ Determine market procurement volume.

The amount of distributed power sources used by the consumer/the amount of distributed power sources procured from the market includes the amount of distributed power sources used by the consumer 101 and the amount of supply and demand adjustment power procured from the market. The amount of use of distributed power sources by the consumer/the amount of market procurement as a result of the determination is stored in the storage device 502 as the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage upper limit 3214 . Concrete examples of distribution equipment adjustment capacity usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3211, consumer distributed power supply usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3212, market price forecast value 3213, and market procurement adjustment capacity usage cost/usage upper limit 3214 will be described.

FIG. 33 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211. In FIG. The distribution facility adjustment capacity usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3211 is information that defines the usage amount adjustment cost and the usage amount upper limit of the distribution facility. A power distribution facility is identified by an area 801 , a system ID 802 and a type 1103 . The controllability of the power distribution facility identified by the controllability ID 3301 includes a usage upper limit 3302, which is the upper limit of the amount of controllability of the power distribution facility to be used, and a unit cost 3303, which is the cost for using the controllability of the power distribution facility. and .

FIG. 34 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the consumer distributed power source utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3212. As shown in FIG. The consumer distributed power supply usage cost/use amount upper limit 3212 is information that defines the usage cost and the usage amount upper limit of the distributed power supply at the customer site. A customer site is identified by a site ID 1901 and an area 801 . Distributed power sources are identified by system ID 802 and type 1103 . The distributed power sources at the customer base identified in this way are identified by the usage upper limit 3402 and the unit cost 3403 of the distributed power sources.

FIG. 35 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market price prediction value 3213. As shown in FIG. The market price prediction value 3213 is information defining a time-series (defined by the time stamp 901) market price prediction unit price 3500 of electricity.

FIG. 36 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3214. As shown in FIG. The market procurement adjustment capacity usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3214 is information that defines the adjustment cost and the usage amount upper limit of the usage amount of the distribution facility procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 . Market-sourced distribution equipment is identified by Area 801 , System ID 802 , and Type 1103 . The balancing capacity of the distribution facility procured by the market identified by the balancing capacity ID 3301 includes a usage upper limit 3602 that is the upper limit of the usage amount of the balancing capacity of the distribution facility, and a limit for activating procurement from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. Activation cost unit price 3603, which is the cost, is specified. Next, the details of the control planning section 622 shown in FIG. 7 will be described.

<Functional Configuration Example of Control Planning Unit 622>
FIG. 37 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration example of the control planning unit 622. As shown in FIG. The control planning unit 622 includes a consumer base most economical power source operation planning unit 3701, a storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702, a distribution line-by-distribution line deviation deviation check unit 3703, a supply and demand gap check unit 3704, a cost and a minimum adjustment force allocation unit 3705 .

The customer base most economical power supply operation plan formulation unit 3701 calculates the customer Draft the most economical power supply operation plan for the base. The customer base most economical power supply operation plan is the most economical power supply operation plan at the customer base. A specific example of the consumer storage battery operation usage amount upper limit 3711 will be described.

FIG. 38 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the upper limit 3711 of the consumer storage battery operational usage amount. The customer storage battery operation usage amount upper limit 3711 is information that defines the upper limit of the operation usage amount of the storage battery at the customer site. A customer site is identified by a site ID 1901 and an area 801 . A storage battery is identified by a system ID 802 and a type 1103 . The storage battery at the consumer base identified in this way is identified by the upper limit 3802 and upper limit 3803 of the operational usage amount of the storage battery. The customer operational usage upper limit 3802 is information on the operational usage upper limit of the storage battery that is stipulated when the most economical power source operation plan is drawn up at the customer site. The operational utilization upper limit 3803 is information on the operational utilization upper limit of the storage battery that is specified when system measures are planned.

Returning to FIG. 37 , the storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702 calculates the storage battery surplus available amount based on the most economical power supply operation plan at the customer site formulated by the customer site most economical power supply operation plan formulation unit 3701 . Calculate The storage battery surplus available amount is the surplus amount of electric power that can be used in the storage battery.

The distribution line-by-distribution line permissible value deviation check unit 3703 checks the current per-distribution line permissible value deviation amount based on the distribution installed capacity monitoring amount 3712 . A specific example of the distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 will be described.

FIG. 39 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712. As shown in FIG. The distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712 is identified by the current value 3901 and voltage value 3902 of the distribution equipment identified by the system ID 802 in the area 801 .

Returning to FIG. 37 , the demand-supply gap check unit 3704 checks the demand-supply gap based on the area demand-supply balance monitoring amount 3713 . The demand-supply gap is the difference between demand and supply in the current area. A specific example of the area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713 will be described.

FIG. 40 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the area demand-supply balance monitoring amount 3713. As shown in FIG. The area demand-supply balance monitoring amount 3713 is a monitoring amount of the demand-supply balance in the area 801 and is defined by the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002 . The difference between the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002 is the demand-supply gap.

Returning to FIG. 37 , the minimum cost control power allocation unit 3705 calculates the surplus available storage battery amount calculated by the storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702 and the Allowable value deviation amount, area supply and demand gap checked by the supply and demand gap check unit 3704, distribution facility adjustment capacity usage cost/usage upper limit 3211, consumer distributed power supply usage cost/usage upper limit 3212, and market procurement adjustment capacity The cost minimum adjustability is assigned based on the utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3214 . The minimum cost adjustability is the adjustability that minimizes the total cost. The minimum cost adjustability is stored in the storage device 502 as the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 . A specific example of the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 will be described.

FIG. 41 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714. As shown in FIG. The customer distributed power supply control amount 3714 is the time-series (specified by the time stamp 901) distributed power supply charge/discharge amount 4100 for each customer site.

(3) Various Processes Related to Planning Function Next, details of various processes executed by the planning apparatus 100 in relation to the planning function according to the present embodiment will be described.

(3-1) Various Processes for Facility Planning FIG. 42 is a flowchart showing processing procedures for facility planning by the planning apparatus 100 . The equipment planning unit 601 of the planning device 100 performs control power value calculation processing by the control power value calculation unit 611 (step S4201), consumer merit calculation processing by the consumer merit calculation unit 612 (step S4202), system countermeasure planning unit System countermeasure planning processing (step S4203) by 613 is executed in order.

FIG. 43 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the adjustment power value calculation processing (step S4201). When the control power value calculation process (step S4201) is started, first, the period supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 701 acquires the area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, the area demand forecast value 903, and the period weather forecast value 1003. , the period supply and demand fluctuation amount is predicted (step S4301).

Specifically, for example, the control power value calculation unit 611 uses actual values (not shown) of supply and demand fluctuations in the past, such as the last year, as objective variables, and uses the actual area demand value 902, the actual period weather value 1002, and the intra-area A multiple regression prediction model is created using the amount of introduced energy 711 as an explanatory variable. Then, the periodical supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 701 inputs the area demand forecast value 903 and the period weather forecast value 1003 to the created multiple regression forecast model, thereby predicting the supply and demand fluctuation amount in the area in a predetermined future period. .

The area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the predicted supply and demand fluctuation amount based on the intra-area supply and demand fluctuation amount predicted by the adjustment capacity value calculation unit 611, the intra-area bidding power supply information 714, and the distribution facility adjustment capacity 715. is calculated (step S4302).

Specifically, for example, the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates the average adjustment amount 1104, which is the estimated average supply and demand adjustment capacity value of the bid power supply in the area 801 shown in the area bid power supply information 714, and the distribution equipment A total value within the area 801 of the average adjustment amount 1204, which is an assumed average supply and demand adjustment capability value of the power distribution facilities in the area 801 shown in the adjustment capability 715, and the value within the area 801 is calculated.

Then, the area adjustment capability sufficiency calculation unit 702 calculates a difference obtained by subtracting the intra-area supply and demand fluctuation amount predicted by the adjustment capability value calculation unit 611 from the total value. This difference is the sufficiency degree 1402 of the adjustment power in the area 801 . If the degree of sufficiency 1402 is 0 or more, it indicates that the adjustability is sufficient, and if it is less than 0, it indicates that the adjustability is insufficient.

The controllability market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 calculates an assumed controllability market unit price based on the sufficiency level 1402 calculated by the area controllability sufficiency level calculation unit 702 and the market transaction past record 716, and calculates the controllability market unit price. The estimated market unit price 1403 of the market value calculation result 717 is stored in the storage device 502 (step S4303).

Specifically, for example, the adjustment capacity market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 uses the actual market procurement unit price 1303 of supply and demand adjustment capacity procured in past market transactions as an objective variable, and the area adjustment capacity sufficiency calculation unit 702 at that time A simple regression prediction model is created using the degree of sufficiency 1402 as an explanatory variable. Then, the control power market unit price reference value calculation unit 703 inputs the degree of sufficiency 1402 to the created simple regression forecast model, and calculates the expected unit price of the control power market at a predetermined future date and time as the control power market unit price reference value. Calculate as

The permissible amount excess risk calculation unit 704 for each distribution line is based on the area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, the period weather performance / forecast value 713, the distribution equipment allowable value 718, and the demand forecast value for each system 719. The permissible value excess risk 1703 for each distribution line is calculated, and the calculation result is stored in the storage device 502 as the permissible value remaining margin 720 for each distribution line (step S4304).

Specifically, for example, the permissible amount excess risk calculation unit 704 for each distribution line first calculates the renewable energy power introduction amount 803 by system ID 802 in the area 801 and the average solar radiation amount, which is one of the period weather forecast values 1003. Based on the time-series period weather prediction values, the reverse flow current (reverse flow current) and the load voltage (load voltage) to the system identified by the system ID 802 are predicted. The reverse flow current is calculated in time series for each system ID 802 by the following formula (1), and the load voltage is calculated in time series for each system ID 802 by the following formula (2).

Reverse current (t)=Predetermined coefficient C1×Amount of renewable energy introduced in the system 803×Predicted average solar radiation amount (t) (1)
Load voltage (t)=Predetermined coefficient C2×Amount of renewable energy introduced into the system 803×Predicted average solar radiation amount (t) (2)

The calculation result of formula (1) is converted to amperes by coefficient C1 (unit is [A/kWh]), and the calculation result of formula (2) is converted to volt by coefficient C2 (unit is [V/kWh]). . The reverse current (t) is the reverse current at time t, and the load voltage (t) is the load voltage at time t.

In addition, the forecasted average solar radiation amount of formulas (1) and (2) is the forecasted average solar radiation amount 1003, which is one of the weather data 1001 in the actual/predicted period weather values 713 shown in FIG. be. For example, if the area 801 is Tokyo, the predicted average solar radiation amount is time-series data {1.45, 1.20, . . . }. The average solar radiation forecast value (t) is the period weather forecast value of the average solar radiation at time t, that is, one of the time-series data.

Then, the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 calculates the difference between the calculated reverse flow current and the current allowable value 1501 of the distribution facility allowable value 718, and calculates the calculated load voltage (hereinafter referred to as reverse flow load voltage) and the voltage tolerance value 1502 of the system of the distribution facility tolerance value 718 is calculated. These two differences are referred to as the first margin value in the system. When evaluating the margin of the system, it is appropriate to take the maximum value of the assumed load, so the reverse flow current and reverse flow load voltage of the first margin value are calculated as shown in the following formulas (3) and (4). be done.

First margin value (reverse current) = current allowable value 1501-max (reverse current (t1), reverse current (t2), ...) (3)
First allowance (reverse load voltage) = Allowable voltage 1502-max (reverse load voltage (t1), reverse load voltage (t2), ...) (4)

Similarly, regarding the forward current and the corresponding load voltage (hereinafter referred to as "forward current load voltage"), the distribution line-by-distribution line-by-distribution allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 calculates the "renewable energy By substituting the "system-specific demand forecast value 719 at time t" for the "power introduction amount 803", the time-series forward flow current and the corresponding forward flow load voltage are calculated.

Then, for the second margin value (forward flow current), the distribution line-by-distribution line excess risk calculation unit 704 calculates "reverse current (t1), reverse current (t2), ..." in the above equation (3). The second margin value (current) is calculated by replacing with "forward current (t1), forward current (t2), ...".

Similarly, for the second margin value (voltage), the distribution line-by-distribution line allowable excess risk calculation unit 704 calculates "reverse flow load voltage (t1), reverse flow load voltage (t2), ..." in the above equation (4). is replaced by "forward load voltage (t1), forward load voltage (t2), ..." to calculate the second margin value (forward current voltage).

The distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 determines the smaller current of the reverse flow current of the first margin value and the forward flow current of the second margin value as the current allowable value margin 1701, The smaller of the reverse flow load voltage and the forward flow load voltage of the second margin value is determined as the voltage allowable value margin 1702, and registered in the corresponding area 801 of the permissible value residual margin 720 for each distribution line and the entry of the system ID 802. do.

In addition, the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 adds a value obtained by multiplying the allowable current margin 1701 by a predetermined coefficient and a value obtained by multiplying the allowable voltage margin 1702 by a predetermined coefficient, The permissible value excess risk 1703 is calculated and registered in the same entry as the current permissible value margin 1701 and the voltage permissible value margin 1702 of the calculation source in the permissible value remaining margin 720 for each distribution line.

Next, the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 transmits the control power value calculation result to the system operator's electronic terminal 402 so that it can be displayed based on the control power market value calculation result 717 (step S4305).

FIG. 44 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the control power value calculation result on the electronic terminal 402 of the grid operator. The display screen 4400 displays an area control capacity market value 4401 , a system-specific allowable value excess risk 4402 , and a distribution network map 4403 for the target area 801 . The area controllability market value is the assumed market unit price 1403 of the area 801 in the controllability market value calculation result 717 .

The permissible value excess risk 4402 by system includes the equipment ID 4421 of the distribution equipment, the type 1203 of the distribution equipment, the maximum load 4422 of the distribution equipment, the maximum allowable value of the distribution equipment (current allowable value 1501, voltage allowable value 1502), It includes the remaining margin 4424 (current tolerance margin 1701, voltage tolerance margin 1702) and tolerance exceeding risk 1703 of the distribution facility. The maximum load 4422 of the distribution equipment is the value of max( ) in the second term on the right side of the above equations (3) and (4).

The distribution line network map 4403 is a map displaying a distribution line network in which distribution facilities are connected by distribution lines. Clicking on a distribution facility displays the permissible value excess risk 4402 for each system of the distribution facility. As shown in FIG. 44, a distribution line whose permissible value excess risk 1703 is equal to or greater than a threshold value may be visually displayed (represented by !) as equipment requiring countermeasures. Also, the market value score is the average value of the estimated market unit price 1403 at each date and time 1401 of the controllability market value calculation result 717 .

FIG. 45 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing procedure example of the customer merit calculation processing (step S4202). First, based on the introduction request from the electronic terminal of the consumer 101, the consumer merit calculation unit 612 calculates the renewable energy power supply installable scale by consumer base 1811, the location condition of the consumer base 1812, the period weather forecast value 1003, the demand The home site demand forecast value 1813, the upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced by customer site 1814, the introduction distributed power supply candidate 1815, and the electricity rate 1816 are obtained from the storage device 502 (step S4501).

FIG. 46 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an input screen displayed on the electronic terminal of the customer 101. As shown in FIG. The consumer merit calculation unit 612 calculates renewable energy for each consumer base corresponding to the area, address, scale of introduction of solar power generation, area of storage battery installation location, initial burden cost, and whether or not the introduction cost burden service input on the screen 4600 is desired. Stores installable power supply scale 1811, customer base location conditions 1812, period weather forecast value 1003, customer base demand forecast value 1813, upper limit of storage battery introduction capacity by customer base 1814, introduction distributed power supply candidate 1815, and electricity rate 1816. Acquired from device 502 .

Returning to FIG. 45 , the site-by-site renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 1801 predicts the photovoltaic power generation amount by site based on the installable renewable energy power supply capacity by customer site 1811 and the customer site location conditions 1812. Predict (step S4502). The amount of photovoltaic power generation for each site is calculated, for example, by multiplying each of the seasonal weather forecast value 1003 of the average solar radiation amount at the site and the renewable energy power supply installable scale 1902 with a predetermined weight.

The site-by-site most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 calculates the relevant The most economical storage battery introduction amount is determined at the base (steps S4503 to S4506). Here, in order to specify the storage battery introduction amount for re-economy, the most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 for each site uses a storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821, a re-economy operation simulation unit 1822, and an economic merit calculation unit 1823. Run optimization calculations.

Specifically, the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 executes the assumption of the storage battery introduction amount to the customer site (step S4503). For example, an entry of a capacity 2304 that does not exceed the upper limit 2200 of the storage battery introduction possible amount of the customer base identified by the base ID 1901 from among the plurality of additional storage battery introduction quantity candidates of the introduction distributed power supply candidate 1815 registered in advance by the energy resource provider 103 is randomly selected (hereinafter referred to as a storage battery introduction amount candidate).

Next, the re-economy operation simulation unit 1822 performs a re-economy operation simulation at the customer base based on the storage battery introduction amount candidates assumed by the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 (step S4504). In the re-economy operation simulation, for example, the price 2305 of the storage battery introduction amount candidate, the annual demand forecast value 2100 at the customer base, the photovoltaic power generation forecast value at the customer base calculated in step S4502, and the demand The optimization problem of searching for a combination of the storage battery in use that minimizes the total cost of annual electricity charges and the charge/discharge amount of the storage battery for each time period using the time-based charge 2400 at the home base. be.

For example, it is realized by an approximate solution search method using an approximate algorithm such as the greedy method. The re-economy operation simulation unit 1822 calculates the most economical storage battery charging/discharging plan (most economical storage battery introduction amount 2500) by the most economical operation simulation by such an approximate solution search method. At this time, if the consumer 101 can sell the surplus power to the electric power company, the economic merit calculation unit 1823 maximizes the profit based on the income from the sale of the surplus power and the expenditure of the electricity charges. It may be an optimization objective function (step S4505).

Next, the site-by-site most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit 1802 determines whether or not a prescribed end condition is reached (step S4506). Returning, the storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1821 is made to assume the storage battery introduction amount again. If the specified termination condition is reached (step S4506: Yes), the finally obtained maximum economic battery introduction amount 2500 is stored in the maximum economic storage battery introduction amount by customer base 1817, and the process proceeds to step S4203.

FIG. 47 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the system countermeasure planning process (step S4203). When the system countermeasure planning process is started, the additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611 for adjustment capacity by customer site based on the most economical storage battery introduction amount by customer site 1817 and the upper limit of storage battery introduction capacity by customer site 1814 Then, in addition to the operating capacity of the customer 101 itself when the storage battery is introduced to the customer base, an additional capacity to be used for system operation as adjustment power is assumed (step S4701). Specifically, for example, the additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611 for adjustment power by customer site does not exceed the difference between the most economical storage battery introduction amount 2500 and the additional possible storage battery introduction upper limit 2200 at each customer site. Assume additional capacity randomly in range.

Next, the distribution line facility enhancement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes the enhancement amount of the distribution facility based on the distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603 and the enhancement facility candidate 2604 (step S4702). For example, the distribution line-by-distribution facility enhancement amount assumption unit 2612 assumes the power distribution facility enhancement amount by randomly allocating countermeasure equipment 2801 to be newly enhanced for each system. That is, the amount of power distribution facility enhancement includes the addition result of the construction cost 2700 and the installation cost 2900, the total value of the allowable current value increase amount 2802, and the total value of the allowable voltage value increase amount 2803.

Then, the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 executes the equipment plan calculation process (steps S4703 to S4707) for calculating the provisionally determined combination (additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment), and determines whether or not the specified end condition is reached. (step S4708). If the specified end condition is not reached (step S4708; No), the process returns to step S4701, and the combination is tentatively determined again by the additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611 for adjustment power by customer base and the facility enhancement amount assumption unit 2612 by distribution line. Let

If the specified termination condition is reached (step S4708; Yes), the equipment plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the final calculation result of the tentatively determined combination (additional capacity and amount of reinforcement of distribution equipment) as the optimum combination of equipment. The plan is transmitted to the system operator's electronic terminal 402 so that it can be displayed (step S4709), and is notified to the electronic terminal 401 of the consumer 101 (step S4710). The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 stores the equipment plan consisting of the optimum combination in the storage device 502 as the equipment plan optimization result 2608, and terminates the process.

Here, the equipment plan calculation processing (steps S4703 to S4707) for calculating the tentatively determined combination (additional capacity and amount of reinforcement of distribution equipment) will be specifically described.

The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the market procurement cost by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 (step S4703), calculates the distribution equipment reinforcement cost by the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622 (step S4704), and calculates the distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount. The total economic efficiency calculation unit 2625 based on the distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation by the unit 2623 (step S4705) and the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation by the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 (step S4706) Comprehensive economical calculation (step S4707) is executed.

The equipment plan calculation unit 2602 calculates the market procurement cost by the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 (step S4703), calculates the distribution equipment reinforcement cost by the distribution equipment reinforcement cost calculation unit 2622 (step S4704), and reduces the risk of exceeding the distribution line allowable value. At least two of the distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation by the amount calculation unit 2623 (step S4705) and the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation by the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 (step S4706) , the total economic efficiency calculation unit 2625 may perform comprehensive economic efficiency calculation (step S4707).

In the market procurement cost calculation (step S4703), for example, the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 calculates the market procurement cost. The market procurement cost is the cost incurred when the additional capacity (additional storage battery capacity) of the customer base assumed in step S4701 is used via the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 during operation. For example, the market procurement cost calculation unit 2621 calculates the market procurement cost by multiplying the additional storage battery capacity by the assumed market unit price 1403 in the area 801 that is the control power market value calculation result 717 .

In the distribution facility enhancement cost calculation (step S4704), for example, the distribution facility enhancement cost calculation unit 2622 randomly assigns The distribution facility enhancement cost is calculated based on the obtained countermeasure device 2801, the installation cost 2900 for each measure device 2801 of the distribution facility enhancement cost unit price 2605, and the system construction cost 2700 at the distribution system facility enhancement possible point 2603. . For example, assuming that the countermeasure devices 2801 randomly assigned to the system with the system ID 802 of "A021" are "SVR1" and "SVR2", the distribution facility reinforcement cost is calculated by the following equation (5).

Power distribution facility reinforcement cost for system "A021" = Construction cost for system "A021" 2700
+Installation cost 2900 of countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1)
+Installation cost 2900 of countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2)
... (5)

In the distribution line permissible value excess risk reduction amount calculation (step S4705), for example, the distribution line permissible value excess risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 calculates the permissible current margin 1701 and the permissible voltage margin 1702 of the permissible value remaining margin 720 for each distribution line. , based on the assumed additional countermeasure equipment for each system (randomly assigned countermeasure equipment 2801 included in the amount of reinforcement of distribution equipment) and the additional capacity to the customer base storage battery, the current after the countermeasure The permissible value margin and the voltage permissible value margin are calculated for each system.

For example, assuming that the countermeasure devices 2801 randomly assigned to the system with the system ID 802 of "A021" are "SVR1" and "SVR2", the current allowable value margin and the voltage allowable value margin of the system "A021" after the countermeasures are taken. is calculated by the following formulas (6) and (7). The additional capacity of the storage battery is the capacity assumed in step S4701.

Permissible current value margin after countermeasure for system "A021" = Permissible current value margin for system "A021" 1701
+ Allowable current increase amount 2802 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1)
+ Allowable current increase amount 2802 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2)
+ predetermined coefficient C3 x (additional capacity of the storage battery with base ID: 1 of the customer 101 of the system "A021" + additional capacity of the storage battery with the base ID: 2 of the customer 101 of the system "A021")
... (6)

Allowable voltage value margin after countermeasure for system "A021" = Allowable voltage value margin 1702 for system "A021"
+ Allowable voltage increase amount 2803 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR1)
+ Allowable voltage increase amount 2803 of additional countermeasure device 2801 (SVR2)
+ predetermined coefficient C4 x (additional capacity of the storage battery with base ID: 1 of the customer 101 of the system "A021" + additional capacity of the storage battery with the base ID: 2 of the customer 101 of the system "A021")
... (7)

The predetermined coefficient C3 in Equation (6) is a coefficient for converting the additional capacity of the storage battery into amperes, and the predetermined coefficient C4 in Equation (7) is a coefficient for converting the additional capacity of the storage battery into volts. be.

The distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 calculates a value obtained by multiplying the current allowable value margin after countermeasures by a predetermined coefficient and a value obtained by multiplying the voltage allowable value margin after countermeasures by a predetermined coefficient for each system. By adding up, the permissible value excess risk of the distribution line after countermeasures is calculated for each system.

Then, the distribution line permissible value excess risk reduction amount calculation unit 2623 calculates the permissible value excess risk reduction amount of the distribution line for each system using the following equation (8).

Risk reduction amount exceeding allowable value = Risk exceeding allowable value 1703 - Risk exceeding allowable value after countermeasures
... (8)

In the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation (step S4706), for example, the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2624 calculates the additional capacity used for system operation assumed by the customer base-specific control power additional storage battery capacity assumption unit 2611, By multiplying by the additional capacity estimated unit price 3004 for each storage battery shown in the consumer storage battery additional capacity estimated unit price 2606, the cost generated by adding capacity to the storage battery of the customer 101 (customer storage battery additional capacity cost) is calculated. .

In the comprehensive economic efficiency calculation (step S4707), for example, the total economic efficiency calculation unit 2625 calculates the market procurement cost by market procurement cost calculation (step S4703) and the distribution facility reinforcement cost by distribution facility reinforcement cost calculation (step S4704). And, based on the allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculated by the distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation (step S4705) and the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation by the customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation (step S4706), the following formula Comprehensive evaluation value is calculated for each system by (9).

Comprehensive evaluation value = weighting factor W1 x market procurement cost + weighting factor W2 x power distribution equipment reinforcement cost - weighting factor W3 x risk reduction amount for exceeding allowable value of distribution line + weighting factor W4 x customer storage battery additional capacity cost
... (9)

The system countermeasure planning unit 613 repeats steps S4701 to S4707 until the specified termination condition is reached, thereby determining the additional resource configuration with the highest comprehensive evaluation value, that is, the configuration of the reinforcement equipment for each system, and the addition to the storage battery of the consumer 101. Explore capacity. This search is based, for example, on metaheuristic techniques such as genetic algorithms. The system-specific additional resource configuration searched in this way is stored in the storage device 502 as the facility plan optimization result 2608 . In addition, the facility plan optimization result 2608 is transmitted to the system operator's electronic terminal 402 (step S4709) and also transmitted to the consumer's 101 electronic terminal 401 (step S4710).

FIG. 48 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the facility plan optimization result 2608 on the electronic terminal 402 of the grid operator. On the display screen 4800 of the electronic terminal 402, for example, the additional capacity of the customer's storage battery (customer's storage battery adjustment amount) and the adjustment capacity to be procured by the power distribution facility after reinforcement (in-house equipment adjustment amount) are displayed.

In addition, the display screen 4800 also displays the power distribution facility reinforcement cost, the consumer distributed power source usage cost, and the period total cost. In addition, it is possible to display the distribution system for which the risk of exceeding the allowable value has been improved by countermeasures.

FIG. 49 is an explanatory diagram showing a display example of the facility plan optimization result 2608 on the electronic terminal 401 of the customer 101. As shown in FIG. The display screen 4900 of the electronic terminal 401 includes, for example, the estimated annual demand value of the customer base, the annual solar power generation amount, the average or representative day demand amount, the renewable energy power generation amount, and the charge/discharge amount of the storage battery. The daily power plan is displayed. In addition, it is possible to display cost information borne by the customer 101 in consideration of discount information for the storage battery based on the additional capacity of the customer storage battery used for system operation.

(3-2) Various Processing of Operation Plan Formulation FIG. As described above, the operation planning unit 602 of the planning apparatus 100 sequentially executes the procurement planning process (step S5001) and the control planning process (step S5002).

FIG. 51 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the procurement planning process (step S5001). In the procurement planning process (step S5001), distribution facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211, consumer distributed power supply utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3212, and market price shown in FIGS. Predicted value 3213, market procurement adjustment capacity usage cost/utilization upper limit 3214, consumer storage battery operation usage upper limit 3711, distribution equipment capacity monitoring amount 3712, area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713, and consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 are reference data. used as

In addition, the procurement planning process (step S5001) is executed, for example, at an arbitrary timing of the system operator, one day to one week before the actual supply and demand time. The predicted value data is one day to one week ahead from the execution timing of S5001).

When the procurement planning process (step S5001) is started, the distribution line-by-distribution line allowable value deviation prediction amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the distribution facility allowable value 718, the area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, the period weather forecast value 1003, and , and the system-specific demand forecast value 719, the deviation forecast amount of the allowable value for each distribution line is calculated (step S5101).

Specifically, for example, the distribution line-specific allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the renewable energy power introduction amount 803 of each system of the renewable energy power introduction amount 711 in the area, and the weather data 1001 in the area 801 of the system. Based on one of the forecast values 1003 of the average solar radiation amount, the reverse current flowing into the system and the reverse current load voltage are predicted. The reverse current and the reverse current load voltage are calculated, for example, by the above equations (1) and (2).

Then, the distribution line-specific allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the first margin value in the same way as the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704 . Similarly to the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704, the distribution line-specific allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201 calculates the forward flow current and the forward flow load voltage, and calculates the second margin value. Then, the distribution line-specific allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201, like the distribution line-specific allowable amount excess risk calculation unit 704, calculates the smaller one of the reverse flow current of the first margin value and the forward flow current of the second margin value. The current is determined as the allowable current value margin 1701 , and the smaller one of the reverse flow load voltage of the first margin value and the forward flow load voltage of the second margin value is determined as the allowable voltage value margin 1702 .

Next, the allowable value maintenance planning unit 3202 calculates the allowable value deviation predicted amount for each distribution line calculated by the allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation unit 3201 for each distribution line (reverse current and reverse flow load voltage, first margin, forward current and forward load voltage, second margin, current allowable value margin, voltage allowable value margin), distribution facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211, and consumer dispersed power supply utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3212 , and a permissible value maintenance plan for maintaining the current and voltage of the distribution line within the permissible values (step S5102).

Specifically, for example, when the first margin value or the second margin value becomes negative, that is, the distribution line exceeds the permissible value, the permissible value maintenance planning unit 3202 at least prevents the permissible value from being exceeded. , power distribution equipment, or a distributed power source of any of the consumers 101 to create an allowable value maintenance plan for maintaining the allowable value.

For example, the permissible value maintenance plan formulation unit 3202 uses the power distribution equipment or distributed power sources of the customer 101 in ascending order of the cost unit price 3303 of the distribution equipment adjustment capacity usage cost/utilization amount upper limit 3211 . and the cost unit price 3403 of the consumer distributed power source usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3212 are sorted in ascending order and assigned as the power source to be used in ascending order of value.

For example, the lowest value of the unit costs 3303 and 3403 in the distribution facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/usage amount upper limit 3211 and the consumer distributed power supply utilization cost/usage amount upper limit 3212 is the distribution facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/usage amount upper limit 3211. Assuming that the cost unit price 3303 of the entry whose adjustability ID 3301 is "1" is "100", the cost unit price 3303 of the entry is initially assigned the value "100". The current allowable value margin after the allocation is calculated by the following formula (10), and the voltage allowable value margin after the allocation is calculated by the following formula (11).

Permissible current value margin after allocation=Allowable current value margin−Forward flow current+(weighting coefficient×Usage upper limit 3302 or upper usage amount upper limit 3402 of allocated entry) (10)
Allowable voltage margin after allocation=Allowable current margin−Forward flow current+(Weighting coefficient×Usage upper limit 3302 or upper usage amount upper limit 3402 of allocated entry) (11)

Each time the allowable value maintenance planning unit 3202 selects an entry to be allocated, it calculates the above equations (10) and (11), and updates the allowable current value margin after allocation and the allowable voltage value margin after allocation. , allocating the regulating power of entries with small cost unit prices 3303, 3403 until at least one of the allocated current tolerance margin or the allocated voltage tolerance margin changes to a positive value (ie, no over-tolerance has occurred). In this way, a tolerance maintenance plan is created that maintains tolerances that minimize the total cost.

Next, the area-specific control power required amount calculation unit 3203 calculates the control power required amount for each area 108 based on the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903 (step S5103). Specifically, for example, the area-by-area required control power amount calculation unit 3203 uses the actual value of the past area-by-area required control power amount as an objective variable, and calculates the area demand actual value 902 and the period weather actual value 1002. A multiple regression prediction model is created for each area 801 as a variable. Then, the area-by-area control power required amount calculation unit 3203 inputs the period weather forecast value 1003 and the area demand forecast value 903 to the multiple regression prediction model of the corresponding area, thereby calculating the control power required amount for each area 108. calculate.

Next, the customer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the allowable value maintenance plan for the distribution line drawn up by the allowable value maintenance plan drawing unit 3202 and the adjustment power required amount calculation unit 3203 for each area. Based on the adjustment capacity required amount for each area 108, the distribution equipment adjustment capacity usage cost/usage upper limit 3211, the customer distributed power supply usage cost/usage upper limit 3212, and the market price forecast value 3213, The amount of distributed power sources 101 to be used and the amount of supply and demand adjustment capacity to be procured from the market are determined (step S5104).

Specifically, for example, the consumer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the average adjustment amount 1204 of the distribution facility adjustment capacity 715 used in the allowable value maintenance plan, out of the distribution facility adjustment capacity 715. By subtracting the facility adjustment capacity utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211 from the utilization upper limit 3302, the utilization of the available power distribution facility is calculated.

Further, specifically, for example, the customer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the usage amount of the distributed power sources of the customer 101 used in the allowable value maintenance plan among the distributed power sources of the customer 101. , and the user distributed power source usage cost/utilization upper limit 3212 from the usage amount upper limit 3402, the available amount of the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 is calculated.

Next, the customer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines the usage amount of the power distribution equipment so as to secure the required controllability amount for each area 108 calculated by the required controllability amount calculation unit 3203 for each area. Alternatively, the usage amount of the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 and the procurement amount from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 including other power sources not registered in the planning device 100 are determined.

In addition, the consumer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines, for example, the unit cost 3303 of the available power distribution equipment, the unit cost 3403 of the distributed power of the consumer 101, and the market price on the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. Based on the predicted unit price 3500, the procurement amount is allocated in order from the lowest cost unit price until it exceeds the required adjustment capacity, and the usage amount of the distribution equipment and the distributed power supply usage of the consumer 101 that minimizes the total cost. Quantity, and market procurement quantity to the coordination capacity procurement plan.

The procurement plan formulation unit 621 transmits the control power procurement plan determined by the consumer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 to the system operator's electronic terminal 402 (step S5105), and performs control plan formulation processing ( Go to step S5002).

FIG. 52 is a flowchart showing a detailed processing procedure example of the control planning processing (step S5002). In the control planning process (step S5002), in the procurement planning process (step S5001), the distribution equipment adjustment capacity usage cost/utilization upper limit 3211 shown in FIGS. Utilization cost/usage amount upper limit 3212, market price forecast value 3213, market procurement adjustment power utilization cost/usage amount upper limit 3214, consumer storage battery operation use amount upper limit 3711, distribution facility capacity monitoring amount 3712, area supply and demand balance monitoring amount 3713, and The consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 is used as reference data.

Note that the control planning process (step S5002) is executed at an arbitrary timing of the system operator from one hour before the actual supply and demand time to just before the actual supply and demand time, and the reference data is one hour from the execution timing of the control planning process (step S5002). It becomes the predicted value data from the time ahead to the latest or the monitoring data immediately before execution of the control planning process (step S5002).

When the control planning process is started, the consumer base most economical power source operation planning unit 3701 generates a consumer base demand forecast value 1813, a period weather forecast value 1003, an electricity rate 1816, and a customer storage battery operation usage amount. Based on the upper limit 3711, the most economical power source operation plan at the customer base is drawn up (step S5201).

As a specific most economical power supply operation planning method at the customer base, for example, the most economical power supply operation planning unit 3701 at the customer base generates demand forecast value 2100 one hour ahead and weather data 1001 at the customer base. Based on the period weather forecast value 1003 of the average solar radiation amount, the forecast value of the amount of photovoltaic power generation one hour ahead is calculated.

The consumer base most economical power supply operation plan formulation unit 3701 calculates the predicted value of the photovoltaic power generation amount, the hourly rate 2400 at the base, and the upper limit 3802 of the consumer storage battery operation usage amount upper limit 3711 , and the most economical charging/discharging amount of the storage battery for each time period is searched. Specifically, for example, the customer base most economical power source operation planning unit 3701 can reduce the total cost of the customer 101 to the lowest total cost by optimizing the combination search of the storage battery charging/discharging amount for each time period. , search for the most economical charge/discharge amount of the storage battery for each time period. This optimization problem is solved, for example, by an approximate solution search method using an approximate algorithm such as the greedy method.

Here, the value of the upper limit 3802 of the consumer operational usage amount is based on the most economical storage battery introduction amount 2500 of the most economical storage battery introduction amount 1817 by customer site calculated in the consumer merit calculation process (step S4202), for example: It may be determined by multiplying by a predetermined weighting factor.

The storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702 calculates the surplus available storage battery amount based on the most economical power supply operation plan (the most economical storage battery charging/discharging amount by hour) at the customer site (step S5202). Specifically, for example, the storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702 subtracts the charge/discharge amount of the most economical storage battery for each time zone from the operation usage amount upper limit 3803 in the consumer storage battery operation usage amount upper limit 3711. Calculate the surplus available capacity of the storage battery.

The distribution line-by-distribution line allowable value deviation check unit 3703 checks the current distribution line-by-distribution line allowable value deviation amount based on the distribution installed capacity monitoring amount 3712 (step S5203). Specifically, for example, the permissible value deviation check unit 3703 for each distribution line determines the permissible current value 3901 and voltage value 3902 per system in the distribution facility capacity monitoring amount 3712 to the permissible current value per system in the distribution facility permissible value 718 . 1501 and the allowable voltage value 1502, and each difference is calculated as the amount of deviation of the allowable value for each distribution line.

The demand-supply gap check unit 3704 checks the current gap between supply and demand in the area 108 based on the area demand-supply balance monitoring amount 3713 (step S5204). Specifically, for example, the demand-supply gap check unit 3704 compares the area demand amount 4001 and the area supply amount 4002 in the area demand-supply balance monitoring amount 3713 to determine the demand-supply gap, which is the difference between the demand and supply of the area 801. calculate.

The cost minimum control power allocation unit 3705 calculates the surplus available storage battery amount calculated by the storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3702 and the permissible value deviation amount for each distribution line calculated by the permissible value deviation check unit for each distribution line 3703. , the supply and demand gap calculated by the supply and demand gap check unit 3704, the distribution facility adjustment capacity usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3211, the consumer distributed power supply usage cost/usage amount upper limit 3212, and the market procurement adjustment capacity usage cost/usage upper limit 3214, determines the control force allocation that minimizes the total cost (step S5205).

Specifically, for example, the cost minimum control power allocation unit 3705 determines the permissible value deviation amount for each distribution line calculated by the permissible value deviation check unit 3703 for each distribution line and the distribution equipment control power usage cost/utilization upper limit 3211 , and the customer distributed power source utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3212, the control power allocation for maintaining the current and voltage of the distribution line within the allowable value is determined.

That is, the minimum cost control capacity allocation unit 3705 sets the distribution facility control power usage cost/utilization upper limit 3211 so that the power distribution facilities or distributed power sources of the consumer 101 with the lowest unit cost 3303 and 3403 are used in order. The cost unit price 3303 and the cost unit price 3403 of the consumer distributed power supply usage cost/use amount upper limit 3212 are sorted in ascending order, assigned as the usage power supply in ascending order of value, and the usage amount of the usage power supply is subtracted from the permissible value deviation amount for each distribution line. To go. Repeat allocation of available power sources until the amount of deviation from the permissible value for each distribution line becomes zero. In this way, the allocation of the usage of the power distribution facility or the usage of the consumer 101 for maintaining the allowable value that minimizes the total cost is determined.

Next, the minimum cost controllability allocation unit 3705 subtracts the distribution controllability allocated by the controllability allocation from the distribution controllability of the distribution controllability from the utilization upper limit 3302 of the distribution controllability utilization cost/utilization upper limit 3211. By doing so, the amount of power distribution equipment that can be used for adjusting the area supply and demand balance is calculated.

Similarly, the minimum cost control power allocation unit 3705 calculates the usage amount of the distributed power sources of the customer 101 allocated by the control power allocation among the distributed power sources of the customer 101 as is subtracted from the usage amount upper limit 3402, the usage amount of the distributed power supply of the customer 101 that can be used for adjustment of the area supply and demand balance is calculated.

The minimum cost control power allocation unit 3705 adjusts the usage amount of the distribution facility control power or the distributed power supply of the consumer 101 so as to secure the control power required amount for each area 108 calculated by the area control power required amount calculation unit 3203. and the amount procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300 including other power sources that are not registered.

The consumer distributed power supply usage/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 determines, for example, the unit cost of power distribution equipment that can be used for adjusting the area supply and demand balance to eliminate the supply and demand gap, and the demand that can be used for adjusting the area supply and demand balance. Based on the cost unit price of the distributed power sources of the house 101 and the market price forecast unit price 3500 on the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, the amount to be procured is allocated in order from the lowest cost so as not to exceed the upper limit of each usage amount. Then, the usage amount of the power distribution facility, the usage amount of the distributed power source of the consumer 101, and the market procurement amount that minimize the total cost are determined in the control plan.

The consumer distributed power supply usage amount/market procurement amount determination unit 3204 stores the usage amount of the consumer distributed power supply that minimizes the total cost as the consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 in the storage device 502 (step S5206), and executes the process. finish.

The system operator may control charging and discharging of the storage battery of the consumer 101 by a distributed power source control system such as DERMS (Distributed Energy Resource Management System) based on the consumer distributed power source control amount 3714 thus determined. In addition, if a part of system management is outsourced to other distribution companies or a part of area supply and demand balance adjustment management is outsourced to an aggregation coordinator, the system operator will The distributed power supply of the consumer 101 may be indirectly controlled by transmitting the calculated consumer distributed power supply control amount 3714 from the electronic terminal 402 .

In this way, the planning device 100 executes distributed power supply optimal arrangement analysis based on the calculation of the power system adjustment capability value and the calculation of the distributed power supply introduction value of the customer 101 . As a result, during operation, it is possible to optimally control the distributed power sources of the consumer 101 based on the economic merit of utilizing the adjustment power of the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 and the economic merit of the power source operation of the consumer 101 .

(4) Effect of the present embodiment As described above, in the present embodiment, the planning device 100 performs the distributed power supply optimal placement analysis based on the calculation of the adjustment power value to the system and the calculation of the distributed power supply introduction value of the customer 101. During operation, optimal control of the distributed power sources of the customer 101 is executed based on the economic merit of utilizing the adjustment power of the power transmission and distribution business operator 102 and the economic merit of the power source operation of the customer 101 .

With such a configuration, based on the economic merits related to the introduction of storage batteries for the customer 101, the system operator optimizes the system measures including the utilization of the storage battery on the customer side, resulting in the most cost advantage as a whole. It is possible to present a large system countermeasure method. In addition, the storage battery can be utilized to the fullest within a range that does not hinder the economic operation of the consumer 101 .

That is, in order to use external resources such as distributed power sources owned by the consumer 101 as a supply and demand adjustment power for temporarily adjusting the supply and demand balance within the area, and to prevent deviation of the allowable values of the current and voltage of the transmission and distribution network. While reducing the operation cost of the consumer 101 by utilizing external resources, such as using it as a regulated power source, effective system operation is possible while suppressing the system operator's own capital investment.

Further, the plan drafting device 100 according to the embodiment described above can also be configured as in the following (1) to (9).

(1) A planning device 100 that draws up a plan for distributed power sources of a consumer 101 has a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 calculates the degree of sufficiency 1402 of the adjustment capacity with respect to the predicted value of supply and demand fluctuation in the area 108 (area demand forecast value 903), and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity of the area 108 based on past transaction results (market transaction Based on the past performance 716), the estimated market value of the adjustment capability (assumed market unit price 1403) is calculated, and the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area 108 (renewable energy power supply amount 803), and the Based on the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation amount in the area 108 (area demand forecast value 903) and the allowable values for the current and voltage of the distribution equipment in the area 108 (distribution equipment allowable value 718), reverse power and forward power The control power value calculation process (step S4201) for calculating the allowable value excess risk 1703 of the distribution line based on the tide, the assumed market value (expected market unit price 1403) calculated by the control power value calculation process (step S4201), and the allowable Based on the value excess risk 1703, a system countermeasure planning process (S4203) for drawing up an arrangement plan (equipment plan optimization result 2608) of the distributed power sources is executed.

(2) In the planning device 100 of (1) above, the processor 501 calculates a demand forecast value (consumer site demand forecast value 1813) at the site of the customer 101 and an upper limit of the amount of storage battery that can be introduced at the site (demand Based on the upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced by home site 1814), the information on the candidate for distributed power sources (candidates for distributed power sources to be introduced 1815), and the electricity rate 1816 at the site, the amount of storage batteries to be introduced at the site (the most economical storage battery introduction amount 2500) is executed, and in the system measure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 calculates the storage battery introduction amount ( Based on the most economical storage battery introduction amount 2500), an arrangement plan (equipment plan optimization result 2608) for the distributed power sources is drawn up.

(3) In the planning device 100 of (1) above, in the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 acquires the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer 101 and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment. Then, based on the assumed market value (assumed market unit price 1403) of the adjustment capacity, the market procurement cost that occurs when the additional capacity is procured at the base is calculated, and based on the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment. to calculate the amount of reduction of the risk of exceeding the allowable value 1703, calculate a comprehensive evaluation value regarding the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment based on the market procurement cost and the reduction amount, and based on the comprehensive evaluation value Then, an arrangement plan (equipment plan optimization result 2608) for the distributed power sources is drawn up.

(4) In the planning apparatus 100 of (3) above, in the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 receives information (reinforcement facility candidate 2604 ), the installation cost 2900 of the countermeasure device 2801, and the construction cost 2700 in the area 108, the power distribution facility reinforcement cost that occurs when the power distribution facility is reinforced is calculated, and the market procurement cost and the The overall evaluation value is calculated based on the reduction amount and the power distribution facility reinforcement cost.

(5) In the plan planning device 100 of (3) above, in the system countermeasure planning process (S4203), the processor 501 determines the additional capacity and the assumed unit price of the additional capacity (assumed additional capacity unit price 3004), Based on this, the customer storage battery additional capacity cost incurred by the customer 101 due to the additional capacity is calculated, and the overall evaluation value is calculated based on the market procurement cost, the reduction amount, and the customer storage battery additional capacity cost. do.

(6) The planning device 100 for planning the distributed power supply of the customer 101 has a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 is based on the forecasted fluctuations in renewable energy supply and demand (distribution facility allowable value 718, area renewable energy power introduction amount 711, period weather forecast value 1003, grid-specific demand forecast value 719). 108, the predicted allowable value deviation calculation process (S5101) for calculating the allowable value deviation predicted amount (reverse flow current and load voltage, first margin value, forward flow current and load voltage, second margin value) of the distribution line in 108; , the allowable value deviation predicted amount calculated by the allowable value deviation predicted amount calculation process (S5101), the utilization cost (unit cost 3303) and the utilization amount upper limit 3302 of the adjustment power of the distribution equipment in the area 108, and the variance Based on the power supply usage cost (cost unit price 3403) and usage amount upper limit 3402, and the market price forecast unit price 3500 of supply and demand adjustment capacity on the supply and demand adjustment market site 300, the usage amount of the distributed power supply and the power trading market and a procurement plan formulation process (S5102 to S5104) for drafting a procurement plan including the procurement amount of .

(7) In the planning device 110 of (6) above, the processor 501 calculates the predicted power generation amount of the renewable energy of the distributed power supply (demand forecast value 2100 for one hour ahead at the customer base and weather data 1001) (1003), the solar power generation amount forecast value for one hour ahead calculated based on the forecast value 1003 of the average solar radiation amount, the hourly rate 2400 at the base of the customer 101, and the customer 101 (S5201), a consumer base most economical power supply operation planning process (S5201) for searching the charge/discharge amount of the distributed power supply for each time zone based on the upper limit of the operation usage amount (customer operation usage upper limit 3802); Based on the charge/discharge amount searched by the consumer base most economical power supply operation planning process (S5201), the surplus available amount of the distributed power supply (the time zone of the distributed power supply that is the most economical surplus available amount calculation processing (S5202) for calculating a subtraction result obtained by subtracting another charge/discharge amount; (subtraction result of subtracting the charge/discharge amount for each time period of the distributed power source that is economical), the usage cost (unit cost 3303) of the power distribution facility and the upper limit of usage amount 3302, the usage cost (unit cost 3403) and usage of the distributed power source Based on the upper limit of quantity 3402, the cost of using the market procurement capability (unit cost of activation 3603), and the upper limit of the quantity of use 3602, a control plan is created by executing the allocation of the quantity of use that minimizes the cost. A planning process (S5203 to S5205) is executed.

(8) In the planning device 100 described in (7) above, in the control planning process (S5203 to S5205), the processor 501 maintains the allowable value for each distribution line and maintains the supply and demand balance of the area 108. is a constraint condition, the control plan is drafted.

(9) The planning device 100 for planning distributed power sources for the consumer 101 has a processor 501 that executes a program and a storage device 502 that stores the program. The processor 501 performs acquisition processing (steps S4701 and S4702) for acquiring the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer 101 and the amount of enhancement of the power distribution facility, and when the additional capacity is procured from the supply and demand adjustment market site 300. the market procurement cost for the distribution equipment, the distribution equipment reinforcement cost incurred when reinforcing the distribution equipment, and the margin of the allowable current value and the margin of the allowable voltage value when the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment are applied. and the additional capacity based on the additional capacity and the estimated unit price of the additional capacity (assumed additional capacity unit price 3004) is added to the storage battery of the consumer. A first calculation process (steps S4703 to S4706) for calculating at least two of the consumer storage battery additional capacity cost and the first calculation result calculated by the first calculation process (steps S4703 to S4706) to calculate a comprehensive evaluation value, and the configuration of the distribution equipment specified by the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment, which are the basis for calculating the overall evaluation value, is determined in the distributed power supply layout plan (equipment plan optimization A second calculation process (step S4707) for planning the result 2608) and an output process (steps S4709 and S4710) for outputting the second calculation result calculated by the second calculation process (step S4707) are executed.

It should be noted that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, but includes various modifications and equivalent configurations within the scope of the appended claims. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail in order to explain the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those having all the described configurations. Also, part of the configuration of one embodiment may be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment. Moreover, the configuration of another embodiment may be added to the configuration of one embodiment. Moreover, other configurations may be added, deleted, or replaced with respect to a part of the configuration of each embodiment.

In addition, each configuration, function, processing unit, processing means, etc. described above may be implemented in hardware, for example, by designing a part or all of them with an integrated circuit, and the processor implements each function. It may be realized by software by interpreting and executing a program to execute.

Information such as programs, tables, files, etc. that realize each function can be recorded in storage devices such as memory, hard disk, SSD (Solid State Drive), or IC (Integrated Circuit) card, SD card, DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) Can be stored on media.

In addition, the control lines and information lines indicate those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily indicate all the control lines and information lines necessary for mounting. In practice, it can be considered that almost all configurations are interconnected.

100 Planning device 101 Consumer 102 Power transmission and distribution business operator 103 Energy resource provider 201 Power transmission business operator 202 Power distribution business operator 300 Supply and demand adjustment market site 400 Planning system 401 to 403 Electronic terminal 501 Processor 502 Storage device 601 Facility planning unit 602 Operation Planning unit 611 Controlling power value calculating unit 612 Customer merit calculating unit 613 System countermeasure planning unit 621 Procurement planning unit 622 Control planning unit 701 Periodic supply and demand fluctuation amount predicting unit 702 Area controllability sufficiency calculating unit 703 Controllability market unit price Reference value calculation unit 704 Allowable amount excess risk calculation unit for each distribution line 1801 Renewable energy generation amount prediction unit for each site 1802 Most economical storage battery introduction amount calculation unit for each site 1821 Storage battery introduction amount assumption unit 1822 Re-economy operation simulation unit 1823 Economic merit calculation unit 2400 Rate by time period 2601 Equipment plan assumption unit 2602 Equipment plan calculation unit 2611 Additional storage battery capacity assumption unit for control power by customer base 2612 Facility enhancement amount assumption unit for each distribution line 2621 Market procurement cost calculation unit 2622 Distribution facility enhancement cost calculation unit 2623 Distribution line allowable value excess risk reduction amount calculation unit 2624 Customer storage battery additional capacity cost calculation unit 2625 Total economic efficiency calculation unit 3201 Allowable value deviation prediction amount calculation unit for each distribution line 3202 Allowable value maintenance plan formulation unit 3203 Adjusting power required for each area Quantity calculation unit 3204 Market procurement amount determination unit 3701 Consumer base most economical power supply operation planning unit 3702 Storage battery surplus available amount calculation unit 3703 Allowable deviation amount check unit for each distribution line 3704 Supply and demand gap check unit 3705 Cost minimum control power allocation unit

Claims (10)

A planning device for planning a customer's distributed power supply,
having a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program;
The processor
Calculate an assumed market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of the supply and demand adjustment capacity for the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation amount in the area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past transaction results, Reverse power and forward power based on the amount of power supply of renewable energy in the area, the predicted value of the fluctuation of supply and demand in the area, and the allowable values for current and voltage of distribution equipment in the area Adjustment power value calculation processing for calculating the risk of exceeding the allowable value of the distribution line based on
a planning process of planning an arrangement of the dispersed power sources based on the assumed market value and the risk of exceeding the allowable value calculated by the controllability value calculation process;
A planning device characterized by executing A planning device according to claim 1,
The processor calculates a storage battery introduction amount at the base based on a demand forecast value at the base of the consumer, an upper limit of the amount of storage batteries that can be introduced at the base, information on distributed power supply candidates, and an electricity rate at the base. Execute the consumer merit calculation process to calculate
In the planning process, the processor draws up an arrangement plan for the distributed power sources based on the storage battery introduction amount calculated by the consumer benefit calculation process.
A planning device characterized by: A planning device according to claim 1,
In the planning process, the processor acquires the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer and the amount of reinforcement of the power distribution facility, and based on the assumed market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity, the additional capacity is obtained at the base of the consumer. Calculate the market procurement cost that occurs when procuring capacity, calculate the reduction amount of the risk of exceeding the allowable value based on the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution facility, and calculate the reduction amount between the market procurement cost and the reduction amount calculating a comprehensive evaluation value regarding the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the distribution equipment based on the above, and making a layout plan for the distributed power sources based on the comprehensive evaluation value;
A planning device characterized by: A planning device according to claim 3,
In the planning process, the processor reinforces the power distribution facility based on information on the countermeasure equipment included in the amount of reinforcement of the power distribution equipment, the installation cost of the countermeasure equipment, and the construction cost in the area. calculating the distribution equipment reinforcement cost that occurs when the
A planning device characterized by: A planning device according to claim 3,
In the planning process, the processor calculates a consumer storage battery additional capacity cost incurred by the consumer due to the additional capacity based on the additional capacity and an estimated unit price of the additional capacity, and calculates the market procurement cost and calculating the overall evaluation value based on the reduction amount and the consumer storage battery additional capacity cost,
A planning device characterized by: A planning device for planning a customer's distributed power supply,
having a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program;
The processor
a calculation process for calculating a predicted amount of deviation from the allowable value of the distribution line in the area based on predicted fluctuations in supply and demand of renewable energy;
The predicted allowable value deviation calculated by the calculation process, the usage cost and the upper limit of the usage amount of the supply and demand adjustment capacity of the distribution equipment in the area, the usage cost and the upper limit of the usage amount of the distributed power source, and the above in the electricity trading market Procurement planning processing for formulating a procurement plan including the usage amount of the distributed power source and the procurement amount in the electricity trading market based on the market price forecast unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity;
A planning device characterized by executing A planning device according to claim 6,
The processor
Charging and discharging of the distributed power sources by time period based on the predicted amount of renewable energy generated by the distributed power sources, the hourly charge at the customer's base, and the upper limit of the operation usage amount of the customer. a search process for searching for a quantity;
a surplus available capacity calculation process for calculating a surplus available capacity of the distributed power supply based on the charge/discharge amount searched by the search process;
The surplus available capacity calculated by the surplus available capacity calculation process, the usage cost and the upper limit of the usage amount of the power distribution facility, the usage cost and the upper limit of the usage amount of the distributed power source, and the usage cost and the usage amount of the market procurement capacity a control planning process for formulating a control plan by executing the allocation of the usage amount that minimizes the cost based on the upper limit and
A planning device characterized by executing A planning device according to claim 7,
In the control planning process, the processor draws up the control plan with the maintenance of the allowable value for each distribution line and the maintenance of the supply and demand balance in the area as constraints.
A planning device characterized by: A planning device for planning a customer's distributed power supply,
having a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program;
The processor
Acquisition processing for acquiring the additional capacity of the storage battery of the consumer and the amount of enhancement of the power distribution facility;
When applying the market procurement cost that occurs when the additional capacity is procured from the supply and demand adjustment market, the distribution facility enhancement cost that occurs when enhancing the distribution facility, and the additional capacity and the enhancement amount of the distribution facility Adding the additional capacity to the storage battery of the customer based on the reduction amount of the risk of exceeding the distribution line allowable value based on the allowable current margin and the allowable voltage margin, and the additional capacity and the estimated unit price of the additional capacity. a first calculation process for calculating at least two of the customer storage battery additional capacity cost that occurs when
A comprehensive evaluation value is calculated based on the first calculation result calculated by the first calculation process, and the power distribution equipment specified by the additional capacity and the amount of reinforcement of the power distribution equipment from which the overall evaluation value is calculated. a second calculation process for planning the configuration of the distributed power supply as an arrangement plan;
an output process for outputting the second calculation result calculated by the second calculation process;
A planning device characterized by executing A planning method executed by a planning device for planning a customer's distributed power supply,
The planning device has a processor that executes a program and a storage device that stores the program,
the processor
Calculate an assumed market value of the supply and demand adjustment capacity based on the degree of sufficiency of the supply and demand adjustment capacity for the predicted value of the supply and demand fluctuation amount in the area and the market unit price of the supply and demand adjustment capacity in the area based on past transaction results, Reverse power and forward power based on the amount of power supply of renewable energy in the area, the predicted value of the fluctuation of supply and demand in the area, and the allowable values for current and voltage of distribution equipment in the area Adjustment power value calculation processing for calculating the risk of exceeding the allowable value of the distribution line based on
A system countermeasure planning process for drawing up an arrangement plan for the distributed power sources based on the assumed market value and the allowable value excess risk calculated by the controllability value calculation process;
A planning method characterized by executing

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