JP2020190965A - Power plan assisting device, power plan assisting method, and power plan assisting program - Google Patents

Abstract

To determine the most economical power supply delivery plan.SOLUTION: A power plan assisting device 1 that assists in drafting a power source delivery plan for delivering the source of power that the deliverer itself owns to a power market, comprises a delivered power source activation prediction unit 13a and a delivery plan drafting unit 13b. The delivered power source activation prediction unit 13a predicts whether or not the delivered power source that the deliverer itself owns and has been delivered to the power market is activated when in operation. The delivery plan drafting unit 13b evaluates earnings per delivery power source scenario combined with the delivered power source that the deliverer itself owns and is delivered to the power market, on the basis of the result of prediction of delivered power source activation by the delivered power source activation prediction unit 13a.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

The present invention relates to a power planning support device, a power planning support method, and a power planning support program.

In recent years, due to the reform of the electric power system in the electric power field, the opening of new markets such as the supply and demand adjustment market has been promoted. In order to pursue economic benefits, power generation companies are required to optimize their power generation plans and market transaction plans in anticipation of electricity sales in multiple electricity markets such as the wholesale electricity market and the supply and demand adjustment market.

As a technique for supporting the market transaction plan of such a power generation company, for example, Patent Document 1 states that "transactions in the electricity market are virtually realized, and the balance between supply and demand of electricity and restrictions on transmission line capacity and power generation equipment are taken into consideration. In order to perform electricity trading simulation with high accuracy over a long period of time, and to perform bid simulation of market participants, "If the power output is lower than the marginal cost curve, set a buy bid cheaper than the marginal cost curve. At a high price where a buy bid is made and the power generation output exceeds the marginal cost curve, a bid plan is created by setting the sell bid higher than the marginal cost curve and making a sell bid. "

Further, for example, Patent Document 2 states that "a power generation plan for a thermal power unit is created for a demand shared by a thermal power / pumping unit and used as a solution candidate", and "next, for a power generation plan for a solution candidate". , By substituting the output of the low-efficiency thermal power unit with the pumping unit, the power generation plan of the pumping unit is created, the power generation plan of the thermal power unit is modified, and a new power generation plan is created. " ..

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2007-159239 JP-A-2007-280204

The bidding planning method disclosed in Patent Document 1 evaluates the output adjustment cost for market buying and selling by predicting the generator merit order for the demand estimation data, that is, the marginal cost curve, assuming the power source composition of another company, and the adjustment cost. The bid is expected to exceed the cost. Further, the power generation planning method disclosed in Patent Document 2 is more economical by evaluating the economic merit when the low-efficiency thermal power unit is replaced with another unit such as a pumping unit after calculating the generator merit order. It is for making a good plan.

However, in the method disclosed in Patent Document 1, bidding for offering to the supply and demand adjustment market is made for each power source, and the valuation price in the market may change depending on the power source to be provided. That is, there is a problem that the economic merit associated with the change in the total output fluctuates depending on the market value of the power source to be provided, so that an appropriate profit estimation cannot be performed.

Further, in any of the methods disclosed in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2, it is not considered whether or not the power supply provided during operation is activated when the unit is provided to the supply and demand adjustment market. In the supply and demand adjustment market, the incentives obtained may fluctuate depending on the amount of activation of the supply unit. Therefore, even if the power source to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market is decided using the result of the generator merit order, the power supply to be supplied is not always activated during operation, and if it is not activated, only the idling cost for activation is required. There is a problem that it may occur and result in loss.

In order to solve these problems, power generation will be carried out by estimating profits in consideration of the economic merits of supplying power to the supply and demand adjustment power market, and by evaluating the economic efficiency of the plan including the predicted values related to the activation of the supplied power during operation. It is required to make a plan and a bid plan for each electric power market.

The present invention has been made in consideration of the above points, and by predicting the power supply to the supply and demand adjustment market of the market participants, the activation time and the activation amount when the self-power supply owned by the market participant is supplied can be predicted. However, one of the purposes is to provide a technique for determining the most economical power supply supply plan by estimating the profit for each combination of self-power supply to be supplied as a coordinating power.

In order to solve such a problem, in the present invention, as one solution means, the electric power plan support device that supports the formulation of the electric power supply plan for supplying the electric power owned by the self to the electric power market is the self provided to the electric power market. Based on the power supply activation prediction unit that predicts whether or not the power supply power owned by the company will be activated during operation, and the activation prediction result of the power supply power supply by the power supply activation prediction unit, the self-delivery to the power market It is equipped with a supply planning department that evaluates profits for each power supply scenario that combines power sources.

According to the present invention, for example, the most economical power supply plan can be determined.

The figure which shows the hardware configuration example of the electric power plan support apparatus which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows the functional structure example of the electric power plan support apparatus which concerns on Embodiment 1. The flowchart which shows an example of the electric power plan support process which concerns on Embodiment 1. The flowchart which shows an example of the output power source activation prediction processing which concerns on Embodiment 1. The flowchart which shows an example of the market participant supply power supply estimation process which concerns on Embodiment 1. The flowchart which shows an example of the delivery plan planning process which concerns on Embodiment 1. The flowchart which shows an example of the profit maximization calculation process which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the previous day demand forecast value information table which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the market participant power source information table which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the spot market execution result table which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the other power supply estimation result table which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the company power source information table which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the supply power source scenario list table which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the supply and demand adjustment market buying bid information table which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the weather forecast value table which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the area demand forecast value table which concerns on Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the adjustment force activation prediction value table for each supply power source scenario which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the power supply operation constraint table for each supply power source scenario which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the execution result of the optimization calculation of Embodiment 1. The figure which shows an example of the market participant power supply type information table which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the company power supply type information table which concerns on Embodiment 2. The figure which shows an example of the other power supply estimation result table 2 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. The figure which shows an example of the supply power source scenario list table 2 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. It is a figure which shows an example of the adjustment force activation prediction value table 2 for each supply power source scenario which concerns on Embodiment 2.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Hereinafter, in the drawings for explaining the embodiments, the same or similar configurations or processes are shown with the same reference numerals, and the duplicated description below will be omitted. Further, in the later embodiment, the description overlapping with the existing embodiment will be omitted. Further, each embodiment can be combined in part or in whole within the scope of the technical idea of the present invention and within the range consistent with it.

In the following embodiments, the data format is indicated by a table, but the present invention is not limited to this, and a data format other than the table format may be used. Further, in the embodiment, each data shown in the table may be appropriately input via the input device or output to the display screen via the output device.

[Embodiment 1]
In the first embodiment, the power supply to the supply and demand adjustment market of a market participant (other market participant) other than the company (or oneself) is predicted from the contract result in the other power market, and the power supply of the company is supplied. A power planning support device that predicts the activation, activation time, and activation amount of the above, and predicts a power supply scenario that combines the supply power supplies to be supplied as adjusting power will be described. The power planning support device according to the present embodiment obtains the estimated profit for each power supply scenario by performing a constrained optimization calculation in which the amount of adjustment force activation predicted for each combination of power supply power supplies in the power supply supply scenario is the absolute secured amount. Make a trial calculation and determine the most economical combination of power supplies.

(Hardware configuration example of the power planning support device 1 of the first embodiment)
First, the hardware configuration of the power planning support device 1 of the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration example of the power planning support device 1 according to the first embodiment. The power planning support device 1 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 10, an input / output device 11, a communication device 12, a storage device 13, and the like. The power planning support device 1 may be a local server installed at a specific location or a cloud server.

The CPU 10 is a processor that controls the operation of the entire power planning support device 1. Further, the storage device 13 is composed of a semiconductor memory or the like, and is mainly used for storing and holding various programs. When the CPU 10 executes the program stored in the storage device 13, various processes as a whole of the power planning support device 1 as described later are executed. The storage device 13 includes a supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a and a supply planning unit 13b realized by a program executed by a CPU 10 and a memory such as a RAM in cooperation with each other.

The input / output device 11 is composed of an input device and an output device. The input device is hardware for the user to perform various operation inputs, and for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or the like is applied. The output device is hardware that outputs images and sounds, and for example, a liquid crystal display and a speaker are applied. The communication device 12 has a function of communicating with an external terminal by a communication method conforming to a predetermined communication standard.

(Example of functional configuration of the power planning support device 1 of the first embodiment)
Next, the functional configuration of the power planning support device 1 of the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a functional configuration example of the power planning support device 1 according to the first embodiment. The power planning support function of the power planning support device 1 predicts the power supply to the supply and demand adjustment market of market participants from the contract results in other power markets, and activates and activates when the company's power supply is supplied. Predict the amount and assume a supply power scenario, which is a combination of supply powers to be supplied as adjusting power for each power source. Then, by performing constrained optimization with the amount of adjustment force activated for each combination of power supplies in the power supply scenario as the absolute secured amount, the estimated profit for each power supply scenario is calculated, and the most economical power supply is supplied. Determine the combination.

As a means for realizing such a power planning support function, the storage device 13 of the power planning support device 1 has the power supply activation prediction unit 13a and the power supply activation prediction unit 13a realized by executing the program, as shown in FIGS. 1 and 2. It has a donation planning unit 13b. The program for realizing the power supply activation prediction unit 13a and the power supply planning unit 13b is stored in a storage device in the own device or in another device capable of communicating via a network, and is loaded into the storage device 13 by the CPU 10 and executed. To. Alternatively, such a program may be stored in a storage medium, read by a medium reading device, loaded into the storage device 13 by the CPU 10, and executed.

The power supply activation prediction unit 13a is realized by executing a program having a function of predicting the time zone and the amount of activation when the activation instruction is given at the operation stage when each power source owned by the company is supplied as an adjusting force. The supply planning department 13b assumes a power supply scenario in which each power source owned by the company is supplied as a coordinating force, and evaluates the profit of the entire plan including the power generation plan and the market transaction plan for each combination of the supplied power sources in the power supply scenario. It is realized by executing a program that has a function to perform.

Further, with reference to FIG. 2, the functional configurations of the supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a and the supply planning unit 13b will be described.

As shown in FIG. 2, the supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a includes a market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201, a supply power supply scenario determination unit 202, a wide area merit order simulation unit 203, a supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 204, and an adjustment force activation amount. Includes prediction unit 205. Furthermore, the supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a serves as a database for managing necessary information, such as the previous day demand forecast value DB0, market participant power supply information DB1, spot market contract result DB2, other supply power supply estimation result DB3, and supply / demand adjustment market purchase. It is configured to include a bid information DB4, an in-house power supply information DB5, a weather forecast value DB6, an area demand forecast value DB7, an adjustment power activation prediction value DB8 for each supply power supply scenario, and a supply power supply scenario list DB10.

The market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 is a functional unit that predicts the supply power supply to the supply and demand adjustment market of the market participants. The market participant supply power supply estimation result predicted by the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 is stored in the other supply power supply estimation result DB3.

The power supply scenario determination unit 202 is a functional unit that tentatively determines a combination of power supplies to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market from the power supplies owned by the company as a power supply scenario. The supply power scenario tentatively determined by the supply power scenario determination unit 202 is stored in the supply power scenario list DB 10.

The wide area merit order simulation unit 203 is a functional unit that simulates a wide area merit order based on the estimation results of the power supply of other companies, the bid information of the supply and demand adjustment market, and the tentatively determined power supply scenario of the company. The simulation result of the wide area merit order carried out by the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 is input to the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205.

The supply / demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 204 is a functional unit that predicts fluctuations in the power supply / demand during operation. The supply and demand fluctuation amount predicted by the supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 204 is input to the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205. The forecast processing of the supply / demand fluctuation amount by the supply / demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 204 will be described later with reference to FIG.

The adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205 is a function unit that predicts the adjustment force activation amount for each time of day in the tentatively determined supply power supply scenario based on the simulation result of the wide area merit order and the prediction result of the supply and demand fluctuation amount. .. The adjustment force activation amount prediction result predicted by the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205 is stored in the adjustment force activation prediction value DB 8 for each supply power source scenario.

As shown in FIG. 2, the supply planning unit 13b includes a power supply operation constraint determination unit 206, an hourly market price prediction unit 207, a supply power source scenario selection unit 208, an output-constrained thermal power generation planning unit 209, and an hourly market bidding plan. It includes a unit 210, a pumping and discharging planning unit 211, a profit evaluation value calculation unit 212, and a transaction execution unit 213. Further, the supply planning unit 13b is configured to include a power supply operation constraint DB 9 for each supply power supply scenario as a database for managing necessary information.

The power supply operation constraint determination unit 206 has a function of determining a power supply operation constraint for satisfying the supply conditions in the supply power supply scenario based on the adjustment force activation amount prediction result stored in the adjustment force activation amount prediction value DB8 for each supply power supply scenario. It is a department. The power supply operation constraint determined by the power supply operation constraint determination unit 206 is stored in the power supply operation constraint DB 9 for each supply power supply scenario.

The hourly market price forecasting unit 207 is a functional unit that predicts the hourly market price. The pre-hour market price forecast result predicted by the pre-hour market price forecast unit 207 is input to the pre-hour market bid planning unit 210.

The supply power supply scenario selection unit 208 is a functional unit that selects a supply power supply scenario to be used for profit evaluation. The supply power scenario selected by the supply power scenario selection unit 208 is input to the output-constrained thermal power generation planning unit 209.

The thermal power generation planning unit 209 with output restrictions is a functional unit that formulates a thermal power generation plan for its own power source based on the power generation operation restrictions of the selected supply power generation scenario. The thermal power generation planning result drafted by the thermal power generation planning unit 209 with output restrictions is input to the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212.

The pre-hour market bidding planning unit 210 is a functional unit that formulates a power buying and selling bidding plan in the pre-hour market. The result of the pre-hour market bidding plan drafted by the pre-hour market bid planning unit 210 is input to the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212.

The pumped storage and discharge planning unit 211 is a functional unit that formulates a pumped storage and water discharge plan for a pumped storage power generator owned by the company. The pumping pumping water discharge planning result drafted by the pumping pumping water discharge planning unit 211 is input to the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212.

The profit evaluation value calculation unit 212 is a functional unit that calculates the assumed profit in the selected power supply scenario based on the thermal power generation planning result, the pre-hour market bidding planning result, and the pumped storage and discharge planning result. .. The profit evaluation result of the supply power source scenario calculated by the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212 is input to the transaction execution unit 213.

The transaction execution unit 213 is a functional unit that executes transactions in the electric power market based on the evaluation results of expected profits for a plurality of power supply scenarios.

As shown in FIG. 2, the power supply scenario selection unit 208, the thermal power generation planning unit 209 with output restriction, the pre-hour market bidding planning unit 210, the pumped storage water discharge planning unit 211, and the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212 have the maximum profit. It is a configuration included in the conversion unit 214.

(Various processes related to power planning support function)
Hereinafter, the processing contents of various processes executed by the power planning support device 1 according to the present embodiment will be described. In the following, the processing subject of various processes will be described as each functional unit, but the CPU 10 that executes the program or module that realizes each functional unit is the actual processing subject.

(Power planning support processing of the first embodiment)
First, the power planning support process executed by the power planning support device 1 of the first embodiment will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of the power planning support process according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 shows a series of processing flow of determining the power supply to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market regarding the power planning support function according to the present embodiment. This power planning support process is executed periodically (for example, a cycle in which the contract process in the market is performed such as a 24-hour cycle).

First, in step S100, the power supply activation prediction unit 13a predicts the power supply activation time and the amount of activation when the power supply owned by the company is supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market. Subsequently, in step S101, the supply plan planning unit 13b acquires the supply power activation prediction result data determined by the supply power activation prediction unit 13a, and based on the selected supply power scenario, the power generation plan including thermal power and pumping. In addition, by formulating a transaction plan in the wholesale electricity market and repeating a series of processes for calculating profits, a supply plan is formulated to determine the power source that maximizes profits.

(Supply power supply activation prediction processing of the first embodiment)
Next, the supply power supply activation prediction process executed by the supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a in step S100 of FIG. 3 will be described. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of the power supply activation prediction process according to the first embodiment.

First, in step S200, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 acquires the previous day demand forecast value information, the market participant power supply information, and the spot market contract result data. The previous day demand forecast value information includes information on the previous day demand forecast value of all the consumers with whom the market participant's bilateral contractor concludes a retail contract, and is managed by the previous day demand forecast value DB0 in the table format shown in FIG. 8, for example. There is. The market participant power supply information includes information on the area and type of the generator owned by the market participant, and is managed in the market participant power supply information DB1 in the table format shown in FIG. 9, for example. Further, as for the spot market contract result data, the time-specific area price information of each area determined as of the previous day is managed in the spot market contract result DB2 in the table format shown in FIG. 10, for example.

Subsequently, in step S201, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 estimates the market participant supply power supply to estimate the market participant supply power supply based on the acquired data. The details of the process of estimating the power supply supplied to the market participants will be described later with reference to FIG.

Subsequently, in step S202, the supply power supply scenario determination unit 202 acquires the company power supply information data. As for the in-house power source information, for example, the output, cost, and operation restrictions of each of the owned generators are managed in the in-house power source information DB 5 in the format shown in FIG. 12 as the in-house power source information table.

Subsequently, in step S203, the supply power supply scenario determination unit 202 provides the combination of the power supplies to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market from the acquired power supplies owned by the company, the time-by-time bidding for each power supply, the ΔkW unit price, and the kWh unit price. Tentatively decided as a scenario. As a specific means for tentatively determining the combination of power supplies to be supplied, for example, all possible combinations of owned power supplies may be used as the supply power supply scenario, or only any combination may be used as the supply power supply scenario.

As a specific means for determining the bid amount at the time of bidding, for example, based on the result of the power generation plan in-house, the bid amount is the surplus output calculated from the output at the time t of the power supply used for each power supply and the maximum output of the target power supply. Alternatively, it may be arbitrarily determined within the range in which the power supply can be supplied.

Further, as a specific means for determining the ΔkW unit price and the kWh unit price, for example, a value obtained by multiplying the incremental fuel cost of the power supply time t of the power supply used in the result of the power generation plan of the company by a predetermined coefficient may be used as the predicted value. , Any other value may be set. The power supply scenario tentatively determined in this way is stored in the power supply scenario list DB 10 in the format shown in FIG. 13, for example.

Subsequently, in step S204, the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 acquires the data of the estimation result of the power supply supplied by another company and the buy bid information of the supply and demand adjustment market. The buy bid information of the supply and demand adjustment market is managed in the buy bid information DB 4 of the supply and demand adjustment market in the table format shown in FIG. 14, for example. Subsequently, in step S205, the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 acquires one supply power supply scenario selected from the supply power supply scenario data tentatively determined in step S203.

Subsequently, in step S206, the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 simulates the wide area merit order based on the acquired power supply estimation results of other companies, the buy bid information of the supply and demand adjustment market, and the tentatively determined company power supply scenario. Do. As a concrete means for simulating the wide area merit order, the bid amount for each time zone of the supply and demand adjustment market shown in FIG. 14 can be bid for each other company and the company shown in FIGS. 11 and 13. Based on this, for example, the contract processing is performed so as to make a successful bid in ascending order of the ΔkW price or the kWh price, and the bid to be executed is determined for each time zone.

Subsequently, in step S207, the supply and demand fluctuation amount prediction unit 204 acquires the weather forecast value data and the area demand forecast value data. The weather forecast value data is managed in the weather forecast value DB 6 in the table format shown in FIG. 15, for example. The area demand forecast value data is data of the demand forecast value of each area as a whole, and is managed by the area demand forecast value DB 7 in the table format shown in FIG. 16, for example.

Subsequently, in step S208, the supply / demand fluctuation amount forecasting unit 204 predicts the forecast error of the area demand forecast value expected in each time zone during operation based on the weather forecast value data and the area demand forecast value data acquired in step S207. To do. As a specific prediction method of prediction error, for example, a regression analysis method such as a self-regression model is used for weather forecast value data, area demand prediction value data, and area demand prediction error data which are past time series data. It is used to calculate the area demand forecast error for the weather forecast value data and the area demand forecast value data.

Subsequently, in step S209, the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205 generates each power source in the selected supply power supply scenario based on the list of adjustment force bids that were won as a result of the wide area merit order simulation and the expected area demand prediction error. Predict the amount of activation for each time zone during operation of the aircraft. Specifically, the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205, for example, from all the bids that have been won, for the supply amount required to match the supply and demand when an assumed area demand forecast error occurs. Assuming that the generators are activated in order from the one with the lowest kWh price, the amount of activation of each generator for each time zone is predicted.

Subsequently, in step S210, the adjusting force activation amount prediction unit 205 displays the contract result, activation time, and activation amount during operation of each generator in the power supply scenario predicted in this manner, for example, in the format shown in FIG. It is registered in the adjustment force activation prediction value DB8 for each supply power generation scenario. The adjustment force activation prediction result for each supply power supply scenario shown in FIG. 17 may be displayed on, for example, the output screen of the input / output device 11, and may be an interface for showing the user the adjustment force activation prediction result for each supply power supply scenario.

Subsequently, in step S511, the supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a determines whether or not the series of processes from step S206 to step S210 have been processed for all the supply power supply scenarios. The supply power supply activation prediction unit 13a ends the supply power supply activation prediction process when it is processed (step S211Yes), and shifts the process to step S206 when it is not processed (step S211No), and unprocessed delivery. The processing of steps S206 to S210 is performed for the power supply scenario.

(Supply power supply activation prediction processing of the first embodiment)
Next, a specific process of the supply power supply estimation process of the market participant in step S201 of FIG. 4 will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of the market participant supply power supply estimation process according to the first embodiment.

First, in step S500, the market participant power supply estimation unit 201 compares whether the area price of its own power supply area in the spot market contract result is equal to the area price of the adjacent area. The market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 shifts the process to step S501 when there is an adjacent area with the same area price (step S500Yes), and when there is no adjacent area with the same area price (step S500No), the step The process is transferred to S502. In step S501, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 sets the adjacent area determined to have the same area price in step S500 as the calculation target area. In step S502, the market participant power supply estimation unit 201 does not have an adjacent area with the same area price, so only its own power supply area is set as the calculation target area.

In step S503 following step S501 or step S502, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 identifies the market participants in the calculation target area based on the market participant power supply information, and the relative contractor of the identified market participants is determined. Assume a power generation plan for the previous day's demand forecast for all consumers who have a retail contract.

As a concrete power generation plan estimation means, for example, the cost for each output of each generator owned by each market participant is set in advance or defined by a mathematical formula using the fuel unit price as a coefficient, so that the unit power generation amount Set the power generation cost per unit. For example, restrictions on the output, cost, and operation of the generator are managed in the market participant power supply information DB1 in the format shown in FIG. Then, an optimization calculation is performed to obtain the combination of supply sources and the output of the supply sources at each time when the cost for supply is minimized. The combination of sources is, for example, a generator start / stop (unit commitment) flag for a plurality of generators. In the optimization calculation, the solution within the range that satisfies the constraints related to the operation such as the minimum output, maximum output, and lamp output of the generator is searched. The cost Fuel Cost related to the operation of the generator for each unit time can be calculated by the equation (1) using, for example, the coefficient (a, b, c) of the generator cost function for each generator.

Subsequently, in step S504, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 calculates the marginal cost at time t from the power generation plan of the market participant assumed in step S503. The marginal cost is calculated, for example, by calculating and summing the incremental fuel costs of all the power generation units that are running at time t.

Subsequently, in step S505, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 compares the marginal cost at time t calculated in step S504 with the area price of the target area at the same time t, and determines whether or not marginal cost> area price. To do. The market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 shifts the process to step S506 when the marginal cost> area price (step S505Yes), and shifts the process to step S507 when the marginal cost ≤ area price (step S505No).

In step S506, since the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 has marginal cost> area price, the market participant uses it at time t based on the power generation plan result of the market participant assumed in step S503. Identify the power source.

In step S507, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 calculates the power generation output range in which the marginal cost ≤ area price. As a specific means of calculating the power generation output range in which the marginal cost ≤ area price, for example, when a plurality of generators are operated, the incremental fuel cost of each generator is equal to the increase in the total output value. Considering that the output is distributed so as to be, the target range is specified by finding the increase in the marginal cost with respect to the increase in the total output, assuming that the unit with the smaller unit price of power generation starts and increases the output for the same incremental fuel cost. To do.

Following step S507, in step S508, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 specifies the power source to be used by the market participant at time t based on the power generation output range in which the specified marginal cost ≤ area price. As a specific means for specifying the power source to be used, for example, a generator that starts in the power generation output range where the marginal cost ≤ area price is considered to be supplied to a relative destination or used for selling power to the spot market. , Identify the power source used by market participants.

Following step S506 or step S508, in step S509, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 supplies the power supply owned by the market participant to the supply and demand adjustment market based on the power supply used by the specified market participant. Determine potential power sources as supply power sources. As a means for determining a specific power supply candidate, for example, a power source other than the power source used by the specified market participant may be used as the power supply candidate, or the output and other power sources at the time t of the power source used by the specified market participant. The surplus output may be calculated from the amount supplied to the market and the maximum output of the target power source, and the power source having a predetermined surplus output may be added to the supply power source candidates.

Subsequently, in step S510, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 predicts a bid to the supply and demand adjustment market for the supply power supply candidate determined in step S509. As the bid information to be predicted, for example, the bid amount, the ΔkW unit price, and the kWh unit price are targeted. Here, the ΔkW unit price indicates a unit price set according to the ability of the power supply output adjustment at the time of actual supply and demand, and the kWh unit price indicates a unit price charged according to the amount actually activated at the time of operation. As a specific means for predicting the bid amount at the time of bidding, for example, based on the power generation plan result assumed in step S503, the surplus output calculated from the output at the power supply time t for each supply power supply candidate and the maximum output of the target power supply. May be the bid amount. Further, as a specific means for predicting the ΔkW unit price and the kWh unit price, for example, the predicted value is a value obtained by multiplying the incremental fuel cost of the power supply time t of the power supply used in the power generation plan result assumed in step S503 by a predetermined coefficient. May be.

Subsequently, in step S511, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 determines whether or not the series of processes from step S505 to step S510 has been processed for all time t. The market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 shifts the processing to S512 when the processing is performed for all time t (step S511Yes), and returns the processing to step S504 when the processing is not performed for all time t (step S511No). Processing is performed at the processing time t.

Subsequently, in step S512, the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 determines whether or not the series of processes from step S504 to step S511 have been processed for the market participants in all the calculation target areas. When the market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 processes the market participants in all the calculation target areas (step S512Yes), the market participant supply power supply estimation process is completed and the market participants in all the calculation target areas are processed. (Step S512No), the processing is returned to step S503, and the processing is performed for the unprocessed market participants.

The market participant supply power supply estimation unit 201 stores the estimation processing results of the supply power sources of the other market participants obtained as described above in the other supply power supply estimation result DB 3 in the format shown in FIG. 11, for example. The other power supply estimation result shown in FIG. 11 may be displayed on, for example, the output screen of the input / output device 11, and may be used as an interface for showing the user the other power supply estimation result.

(Delivery plan planning process of Embodiment 1)
Next, a specific flow of the delivery plan planning process executed by the delivery plan planning unit 13b in step S101 of FIG. 3 will be described. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the delivery plan planning process according to the first embodiment.

First, in step S300, the power supply operation constraint determination unit 206 acquires the adjustment force activation prediction value data for each supply power supply scenario calculated in step S100.

Subsequently, in step S301, the power supply operation constraint determination unit 206 determines the constraint value related to the power supply operation in each supply power supply scenario based on the adjustment force activation prediction value data for each supply power supply scenario acquired in step S300. As a means for determining a specific power supply operation constraint value, for example, for a generator determined to be contracted as a result of the processing of step S101 for each power supply scenario, the output reserve capacity corresponding to the bid amount is set as the target time zone. The amount of reserve capacity to be secured is set as a constraint value. In addition, for generators that are predicted to be activated during operation as a result of the processing in step S101 in each supply power source scenario, the amount of activation is excluded from the supply-demand balance constraint, and adjustments are made to exclude it from the supply-demand matching constraint at the time of planning. It may be set as a quantity. Further, for the generator determined to be contracted, the response time from the activation command to the output fluctuation may be set as a constraint value according to the type of adjusting force set at the time of bidding. The constraints related to the power supply operation in each supply power supply scenario determined in this way are registered in the power supply operation constraint DB 9 for each supply power supply scenario in the format shown in FIG. 18, for example. In FIG. 18, each column of "remaining reserve amount (kW)", "supply / supply matching constraint adjustment amount (kW)", and "response time (minutes)" is added to the adjustment force activation prediction table for each supply power supply scenario shown in FIG. It was done.

Subsequently, in step S302, the pre-hour market price forecasting unit 207 predicts the pre-hour market price. Specific means for predicting the pre-hour market price include, for example, past time-series data such as pre-hour market price data and data having a high correlation that causes fluctuations in the pre-hour market price, such as weather forecast value data. The area demand forecast value data is used as training data, and a regression analysis method such as a self-return model is used to predict the time-series market price for the latest weather forecast value data and area demand forecast value data.

Subsequently, in step S303, the profit maximizing unit 214 makes a plan for the supply to the adjustment power market, the power generation including thermal power and pumped storage, and the transaction in the wholesale power market, and repeats a series of processes for calculating the profit. Then, execute the calculation process to make the plan that maximizes the profit. Details of the process in step S303 will be described later with reference to FIG.

Subsequently, in step S304, the transaction execution unit 213 executes the transaction based on the plan that maximizes the profit planned in step S303. Specifically, the transaction execution unit 213 executes a transaction in the supply and demand adjustment market with the generator in the power supply scenario determined to maximize the profit in step S303 and the target bid amount in the target time zone. Then, when the processing of step S304 is completed, the transaction execution unit 213 ends the delivery planning process.

(Profit maximization calculation process of the first embodiment)
Next, a specific flow of the profit maximization calculation process executed by the profit maximizing unit 214 in step S303 of FIG. 6 will be described. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the profit maximization calculation process according to the first embodiment.

First, in step S401, the supply power supply scenario selection unit 208 acquires all the power supply operation constraint data for each supply power supply scenario from the power supply operation constraint DB 9 for each supply power supply scenario. Subsequently, in step S402, the supply power supply scenario selection unit 208 selects one from the acquired supply power supply scenario list as the supply power supply scenario. The supply power supply scenario may be selected in order from the unprocessed one based on the ID of the list, or may be randomly selected.

Subsequently, in step S403, the output-constrained thermal power generation planning unit 209, the hourly market bidding planning unit 210, the pumping pumping and discharging planning unit 211, and the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212 are based on the supply power supply scenario selected in step S402. And make a procurement and sales plan. Specifically, for example, the real power demand is calculated from the next-day demand forecast value of the relative supply destination contracted by the company and the power generation amount forecast value of the renewable energy generator owned by the company, and the power supply constraint of the power supply scenario. A thermal power generation plan, an hourly market procurement and sales plan, and a pumping and discharging plan that can supply real electricity demand will be formulated.

For example, if your company has power generation equipment, you can set the cost for each output of each generator you own in advance, or define it with a mathematical formula using the fuel unit price as a coefficient, so that per unit power generation amount. Set the power generation cost. For example, the output, cost, and operational constraints of the generator are managed in the format shown in the in-house generator information table (see FIG. 12). Further, procurement from the wholesale electricity market such as the time-before market may be regarded as one generator. In that case, for example, the cost per unit procurement amount is set based on the predicted value of the future market price before the hour.

Then, an optimization calculation is performed to obtain the combination of the supply source that maximizes the profit calculated from the cost of supply procurement and the income from sales in the market and the output of the supply source. The combination of sources is, for example, a generator start / stop (unit commitment) flag for a plurality of generators, or a flag that determines whether or not to procure from the electricity market (eg, pre-hour market). The output of the source is, for example, the output of each generator or the amount procured from the electricity market. In the optimization calculation, the solution within the range that satisfies the constraints related to the operation such as the minimum output, maximum output, and lamp output of the generator is searched.

The cost related to the operation of the generator for each unit time is calculated by using the coefficient (a, b, c) of the cost function for each generator obtained from the generator information table (see FIG. 12), for example, in the above equation (1). Can be calculated by

Further, as a specific method for formulating a plan that satisfies the power supply constraint of the power supply scenario, for example, with reference to FIGS. 13 and 18 as input variables of the model used at the time of optimization, the following is set.

yanci_ (u, t, a): Reserved capacity at time t when the unit u is supplied as the supply power scenario a (“Reserved capacity” in the power supply operation constraint table for each supply power scenario in FIG. 18).

zanci_ (u, t, a): Supply-demand matching constraint adjustment amount at time t when the unit u is delivered as the supply power supply scenario a (“Supply-supply matching constraint adjustment amount” in the power supply operation constraint table for each supply power supply scenario in FIG. 18) ..

tanci_ (u, a): Response time when the unit u is supplied as the supply power supply scenario a (“response time” in the power supply operation constraint table for each supply power supply scenario in FIG. 18).

ianci_ (u, t, a): Reward (kWh unit price) at time t when the unit u is supplied as the supply power supply scenario a (“kWh unit price” in the supply power supply scenario list table of FIG. 13). For ianci_ (u, t, a), the ΔkW unit price may be used instead of the kWh unit price, or a value based on the result of a combination calculation of the kWh unit price and the ΔkW unit price may be used.

Also, set the following as model operation variables.
anciFlg_ (u, t, a): Flag (0 or 1) of whether to deliver the unit u to the power supply scenario a at time t.

Further, the following constraints 1 to 3 are set as the constraint equations of the model.

Constraint 1: Constraint to secure the adjustment ability of the unit at the delivery time. That is, the constraint 1 is that if the start / stop flag of the unit u at time t is y_ (u, t), the output is power_ (u, t), and the minimum output is powermin_ (u), all the units u and time t It is represented by the equation (2).

Constraint 2: Constraint to secure the amount of output change at the time of delivery. That is, the constraint 2 is expressed by the equation (3) for all the units u, the time t, and the power supply scenario a.

Constraint 3: Demand-supply matching constraint. That is, constraint 3 is expressed by the equation (4) for all time t, where discharge_ (m, t) is the discharge amount at time t of the pumping unit m and demand_ (t) is the relative retail sales amount at time t. To.

Then, the profit evaluation value calculation unit 212 calculates, for example, the income from sales in the pre-hour market and the income from the provision of adjustment power as income, and reduces the cost for procurement from this calculation result, thereby using the objective function of the model. Calculate a certain income. For example, the income from the provision of adjustment power is calculated by the formula (5).

Here, referring to FIG. 19, the optimization calculation of the thermal power generation plan, the pre-hour market procurement and sales plan, and the pumped storage and discharge plan that satisfy the power supply constraints of the power supply scenario, can supply real power demand, and maximize the profit. The result when was carried out is shown. FIG. 19 is a diagram showing an example of the execution result of the optimization calculation of the first embodiment. The result shown in FIG. 19 may be displayed on, for example, the output screen of the input / output device 11 and may be used as an interface for showing the optimization calculation result to the user.

FIG. 19 shows an example in which the delivery time is on the horizontal axis and 48 frames in 30-minute increments starting from 0 o'clock are used as the optimization calculation result for one day. The vertical axis of FIG. 19 shows the procurement amount including the generator output and the market procurement in the positive direction, and the supply amount including the relative supply and the market sale and the charge amount to the pumping unit in the negative direction. The amount of procurement in the positive direction is displayed in a distinguishable manner for each type of supply source (oil machine, combined machine, gas generator, coal generator, pumping generator, pre-hour market, etc.). Furthermore, each block included for each source type indicates the output of each individual source.

In FIG. 19, the broken line shown in the positive direction of the vertical axis indicates the electric power demand of the company's relative retail supply, and the electric power exceeding the electric power demand is supplied to the market before the hour or used for charging the pumped storage generator. Each block surrounded by a solid line frame in FIG. 19 shows a supply power source (supply unit) which is a unit for supplying power to the adjustment power market during the adjustment power bidding time zone.

In FIG. 19, the time frame to be divided is set to 30 minutes, but the same can be performed in any unit such as 1 minute or 5 minutes. Further, in FIG. 19, a pumped storage generator is taken as an example as a resource for storing electric power, but the same can be performed when other storage resources such as a storage battery are used.

The explanation is returned to FIG. Subsequently, in step S404, the profit maximizing unit 214 determines whether or not the predetermined termination condition has been reached. When the profit maximizing unit 214 reaches the default end condition (step S404Yes), the process moves to step S405, and when the default end condition is not reached (step S404No), the process moves to step S402.

In step S405, the profit maximizing unit 214 determines the power supply scenario that maximizes the profit as the power supply scenario that maximizes the profit while repeating the series of processes from step S402 to step S403. When step S405 is completed, the profit maximizing unit 214 ends the profit maximizing process.

In the supply power scenario selection process of step S402, the processing of which is transferred from step S404 again, the new supply power scenario is, for example, a general optimization method (linear programming, Simulated Annealing, genetic algorithm, tabu search, etc.). May be selected using. Further, in step S404, the profit maximization process may be terminated based on the termination conditions of these optimization methods.

(Effect of embodiment)
As described above, the electric power planning support device of the present embodiment predicts the power supply to the supply and demand adjustment market of the market participants from the contract results in other electric power markets, and thus the activation time and the activation time when the own power supply is supplied. Predict the amount of activation, assume a scenario in which each power supply is supplied as adjustment power, and perform constrained optimization with the predicted amount of adjustment power activation for each combination of power supply scenario as the absolute secured amount. Then, the estimated profit for each supply scenario is calculated, and the combination of the supply power sources that is the most economical is determined.

Therefore, according to this embodiment, power generation is carried out by a profit estimation considering the economic merit of supplying power to the supply and demand adjustment market, and by evaluating the economic efficiency of the plan including the predicted value related to the activation of the supplied power during operation. It is possible to realize a plan and a bidding plan for each electricity market. In other words, it is possible to make a plan that will be the most economical as a whole, including incentives for activating the power supply provided to the supply and demand adjustment market.

[Embodiment 2]
In the above-described first embodiment, the case where the supply surplus capacity of the market participants is provided to the supply-demand adjustment market has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and for example, the surplus capacity of a predetermined generator generated during operation is not limited to this. The present invention can also be applied when a system operator such as a power transmission / distribution company can utilize the surplus capacity (hereinafter referred to as the surplus capacity). Hereinafter, this example will be referred to as the second embodiment, and only the points different from the first embodiment will be described.

For example, for each power source owned by the market participant, the supply type indicating whether the supply of surplus power is the supply and demand adjustment market or the utilization of surplus power is managed in the format shown in FIG. Then, in the supply and demand adjustment power supply candidate assumption processing of the power supply that may be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market in step S509 of the market participant supply power supply estimation process shown in FIG. 5, the market participant identified in step S508, for example, with reference to FIG. A power source other than the power source used in the above and whose supply type is the supply and demand adjustment market may be a candidate for the supply and demand adjustment market. Alternatively, the surplus output is calculated from the output at the power supply time t of the specified market participant and the maximum output of the target power supply, and the power supply having a predetermined surplus output and the supply type is the supply and demand adjustment market is selected as the supply and demand adjustment market. It may be added to the supply power supply candidates.

Further, in step S509, the bid to the supply and demand adjustment market is predicted, and the surplus capacity to be provided for utilization of the surplus capacity and its ΔkW unit price are predicted. As a concrete means of predicting the amount of surplus capacity to be supplied to the surplus capacity utilization, for example, based on the power generation plan result assumed in step S503, from the output at the power supply time t of each surplus capacity utilization type power source and the maximum output of the target power source. The calculated surplus output may be used as the surplus capacity. Further, as a specific means for predicting the ΔkW unit price, for example, a value obtained by multiplying the incremental fuel cost of the power supply time t of the power source used in the power generation plan result assumed in step S503 by a predetermined coefficient may be used as the predicted value. The other power supply estimation result obtained in this way is managed in the format shown in FIG. 22, for example. The other power supply estimation result shown in FIG. 22 may be displayed on, for example, the output screen of the input / output device 11, and may be used as an interface for showing the user the other power supply estimation result.

Next, in the supply power scenario determination process of step S203 in the supply power estimation process of the market participants shown in FIG. 4, the combination of the power supplies to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market from the own power sources and the time-by-time bidding for each power source. In addition to the ΔkW unit price and the kWh unit price, the ΔkW unit price for each time of the power supply to be supplied to utilize the surplus power and the target power supply is tentatively determined as the power supply scenario. As a specific means for tentatively determining the combination of power sources to be supplied, for example, for each power source owned by the company, the supply type indicating whether the supply of surplus power is the supply and demand adjustment market or the utilization of surplus power is managed in the format shown in FIG. However, based on the results of the power generation plan in-house, the surplus output of the power supply to be used for the utilization of surplus power shall be provided without fail. The method for tentatively determining the combination of power sources to be supplied to the supply and demand adjustment market is the same as that in the first embodiment. The power supply scenario tentatively determined in this way is stored in the power supply scenario list DB 10 in the format shown in FIG. 23, for example.

Next, the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 selected from the other company's power supply estimation result data (see FIG. 22), the buy / bid information of the supply / demand adjustment market, and the tentatively determined power supply scenario data (see FIG. 23). Acquire one supply power supply scenario. Then, the wide area merit order simulation unit 203 shows in FIGS. 22 and 23 based on the acquired output power supply estimation results of other companies, the buying bid information of the supply and demand adjustment market, and the tentatively determined own supply power supply scenario. Based on the bids and surplus capacity of other companies and their own time zones, for example, the contract processing is carried out so as to make a successful bid in ascending order of the kWh price, and it is decided whether to adopt as the contract or surplus capacity for each time zone.

Then, in the adjustment force activation amount prediction unit 205, at the time of operation of each generator in the selected power supply scenario based on the list of adjustment forces that have been successful or adopted as a result of the wide area merit order simulation and the expected area demand forecast error. Predict the amount of activation for each time zone. Specifically, for example, the ΔkWh price is the lowest among all the contracted or adopted power sources for the supply amount required to match the supply and demand when an assumed area demand forecast error occurs. Assuming that the generators are activated in order from the one, the amount of activation of each generator for each time zone is predicted.

The contract results in the supply and demand adjustment market of each generator in the supply and demand adjustment market predicted in this way, the adoption results by utilizing the surplus capacity, and the amount of activation during operation are, for example, the adjustment power for each supply power scenario in the format shown in FIG. It is registered in the activation prediction value DB8. The adjustment force activation prediction result for each supply power supply scenario shown in FIG. 24 may be displayed on, for example, the output screen of the input / output device 11, and may be an interface for showing the user the adjustment force activation prediction result for each supply power supply scenario.

Other than that, it has the same configuration and processing as in the first embodiment, and it is possible to carry out the supply planning process for the power supply whose supply type is "utilization of surplus capacity" in the second embodiment as well as the power supply whose supply type is "supply and demand adjustment market". is there.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and at the implementation stage, the components can be modified and embodied within a range that does not deviate from the gist thereof. For example, in this embodiment, the spot market and the pre-hour market are taken as examples of the wholesale electric power market, but it can also be used in other electric power trading markets where electric power is traded between a plurality of entities.

Further, the above-described embodiment is for explaining the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and is not necessarily limited to the one including all the configurations described. Further, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. In addition, it is possible to add, delete, replace, integrate, or distribute other configurations for a part of the configurations of each embodiment. Further, each process shown in the embodiment may be appropriately distributed or integrated based on the processing efficiency or the mounting efficiency.

1: Power planning support device, 13a: Power supply activation prediction unit, 13b: Power supply planning department, 201: Market participant power supply estimation department, 202: Power supply scenario determination unit, 203: Wide area merit order simulation department, 204: Supply and demand fluctuation forecasting department, 205: Adjusting power activation amount forecasting department, 206: Power supply operation constraint determination department, 207: Market price forecasting department before hours, 208: Supply power supply scenario selection department, 209: Thermal power generation planning department with approx. : Pre-hour market bid planning department, 211: Water discharge planning department, 212: Profit evaluation value calculation department, 213: Transaction execution department, 214: Profit maximization department

Claims (13)

It is a power planning support device that supports the formulation of a power supply plan that supplies the power that it owns to the power market.
The power supply activation prediction unit that predicts whether or not the power supply owned by the owner provided to the electricity market will be activated during operation.
It is characterized by having a supply planning department that evaluates profits for each supply power scenario that combines its own power supply to the power market based on the power supply activation prediction result by the power supply activation prediction unit. Power planning support device. The power supply activation prediction unit
The electric power planning support device according to claim 1, further comprising a market participant electric power supply estimation unit that estimates the electric power supply that the market participant provides to the electric power market. The power supply activation prediction unit
Based on the estimation result of the power supply supplied to the electric power market by the market participant by the market participant power supply estimation unit, the power source to be contracted among the own power supply power supply to the electric power market is simulated on the merit order. The electric power planning support device according to claim 2, wherein the electric power is predicted by. The power supply activation prediction unit
Based on the simulation results of the merit order, the prediction error of the power demand during the operation of the own power supply, and the cost of operating the own power supply that can be used during the operation, the operation of the own power supply The electric power planning support device according to claim 3, further comprising an adjustment force activation amount prediction unit that predicts the activation time and the activation amount. The power supply activation prediction unit
Predicting the power supply to be supplied to the power market by market participants from the contract results in other power markets,
The fourth aspect of claim 4, wherein the activation time and the activation amount at the time of operation of the own power supply are predicted from the power generation cost of each power supply to the power market by each of the market participant and the self. Power planning support device. The power supply activation prediction unit
Based on the electricity price in the other electricity market and the power generation cost of the power source owned by the market participant, the power generation amount of each supply power source for the market participant to supply to the other electricity market is predicted, and the other The electric power according to claim 5, wherein the power generation capacity of each electric power source is predicted from the electric power supply amount to the electric power market, and the electric power source and the electric power supply amount to the electric power market of the market participants are predicted. Planning support device. The donation planning department
Securing the amount of power generation predicted for each power supply scenario during operation Power procurement and sales plans that satisfy the power supply operation constraints for each power supply scenario are formulated by constrained optimization calculation for each power supply scenario. The power planning support device according to claim 1, characterized in that it calculates revenue. The donation planning department
Revenue calculated by formulating a power procurement and sales plan based on the specifications including the output constraints, specifications, and power generation costs of the power supply in the above power supply scenario, and the market price forecast of power in other power markets. The power planning support device according to claim 7, wherein the maximum power supply scenario is determined as the maximum profitable power supply scenario. The donation planning department
A power generation plan that satisfies the output constraints of the power supply in the above power supply scenario, can supply real power demand, and maximizes the profit calculated from the cost of supply and procurement and the revenue from sales in the market, other markets. The electric power planning support according to claim 8, wherein the electric power procurement from the electric power source and the electric power sales plan including the electric power sales plan are drafted by the constrained optimization calculation for calculating the profit of the entire electric power procurement and sales plan. apparatus. The output constraint according to claim 9, wherein the output constraint includes an amount of power to be secured for power supply and a response time required from the activation command of the power supply during operation to the output fluctuation. Power planning support device. The donation planning department
When calculating the profit for each supply power source scenario, the predicted value of the reward at the time of delivery based on at least one of the ΔkW unit price and the kWh unit price for each supply power source in each supply power source scenario, and each predicted value for each supply power source scenario. The power planning support device according to claim 1, wherein the profit from power supply is predicted based on the amount of power generation. It is a power planning support method performed by a power planning support device that supports the formulation of a power supply plan that supplies the power that it owns to the power market.
Predict whether or not the self-owned power supply to the electricity market will be activated during operation,
A power planning support method comprising each process of evaluating profit for each power supply scenario in which the own power supply to be supplied to the power market is combined based on the activation prediction result of the power supply. Computer,
Power supply activation prediction unit, which predicts whether or not the power supply owned by the owner provided to the electricity market will be activated during operation.
Power planning support to function as a supply planning department that evaluates profits for each supply power scenario that combines the power supply of its own to the power market based on the prediction result of the power supply activation by the power supply activation prediction unit. program.

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