JP6729859B2 - Prediction management method - Google Patents

Description

The present technology relates to a system and method for managing business performance forecasts.

The following are the main possible methods of recommending the trading of stocks (brands) of companies.

(1) Judgment based on stock price.
For example, when the absolute stock price is too high, selling recommendation is made, and when it is too low, buying recommendation is made. If the stock price rises too much in a certain period of time, the selling recommendation is made, and if the price fall is too large, buying recommendation is made.

(2) Judgment based on market capitalization.
For example, we recommend buying if it is cheaper than the market capitalization of similar companies. Also, small cap stocks with a small absolute market capitalization are recommended to buy as there is room to increase, and large stocks with a large absolute market value are recommended to sell as they have a small room to rise.

(3) Judgment based on the forecasts of analysts of securities companies and research companies.
It is judged to be cheap or expensive by the analyst's performance forecast. For example, according to an analyst in charge of the electronics sector, Company A recommends buying because of low stock price or market capitalization for its performance.
It also forecasts surprises based on the performance forecasts of specific analysts. For example, in contrast to the consensus of an unspecified number of analysts aggregated by Nikkei QUICK News, Bloomberg, securities companies, research firms, etc., a particular analyst B judges that A's performance exceeds the consensus and buys it. Make recommendations.

(4) Recommendation of baskets We recommend an unspecified number of stocks that belong to a specific theme or sector. For example, as AI (Artificial Intelligence) is expected to grow in the future, we recommend buying 30 shares of AI-related companies.
In addition, we recommend an unspecified number of issues extracted based on some index such as payout ratio and ROE (Return on Equity). For example, we recommend buying high-yielding yield stocks. However, this is judged based on the forecasts of securities companies and research companies, and the planned or actual figures of each listed company.

JP, 2007-264969, A JP, 2011-232954, A

Stock prices are not determined by securities companies or research companies, but by the supply and demand of stock market participants. A system or method for recommending in line with each user's ideas based on the user's own performance forecast, which can be a stock market participant, is desired, not the forecast of a securities company or a research institution or the forecast of a third party.

Further, a system or method capable of collecting and analyzing the performance forecasts of many users is desired.

Furthermore, a system or method that recommends based on the average and distribution of performance forecasts of system participants is desired.

In addition, a system or method that modifies the recommendations due to changes in the average forecast of system participants is desired.

Furthermore, a system or method that recommends whether to hold for a long time based on the performance forecast rather than the stock price is desired.

Furthermore, a system or method that recommends whether to take action based on the user's past performance is desired.

The present technology is, for example, a method of managing forecasts in a computer, and includes calculating a market forecast from a plurality of user forecast values, and calculating a deviation value from the market forecast for at least one user forecast value. , Including predictive management methods.

It is a figure which shows the performance forecast management system by the Example of this technique. It is a flowchart which shows the performance forecast management method by the Example of this technique.

FIG. 1 shows a performance forecast management system 100 according to an embodiment of the present technology.

The performance forecast management system 100 includes a server 110, a client terminal 120, and a client terminal 130 connected to the Internet 140.

The server 110 is a computer having a function of communicating with the client terminal 120 and the client terminal 130 via the Internet. The client terminal 120 is a computer, a tablet terminal, or a smartphone having a function of communicating with the server 110 via the Internet, and the client terminal 130 is also the same. Not only the client terminals 120 and 130, more client terminals can be connected.

FIG. 2 shows a performance forecast management method 200 according to an embodiment of the present technology.

In step 210, the performance forecast management method 200 is started on the server 110. Next, in step 220, the user forecast value regarding the corporate performance is received. The user forecast value regarding the corporate performance is input to the client terminal 120 by the user and transmitted from the client terminal 120 to the server 110.

The user forecast value regarding the business performance includes, for example, the forecast value regarding the continuous profit of the company. The forecast value for a company's continuing profit includes a forecast value for at least one of the company's sales, operating profit, profit before tax, net profit, and earnings per share. From the forecast values of sales, operating profit, pre-tax profit, net profit, and earnings per share of the company, one of these forecast values or the forecast value of other indicators by a method such as weighted average May be calculated by the server 110. The forecast value regarding the continuous profit of the company may be an index designated in advance by the company or the type of business to which the company belongs.

Next, in step 230, the user predicted value received from the client terminal 120 is stored in the memory (not shown) in the server 110. The memory may be a magnetic storage device such as a hard disk drive (HDD) or a semiconductor storage device such as a solid state drive (SSD).

Regarding the client terminal 130 and the other client terminals, the server 110 receives the other user predicted value regarding the corporate performance in step 220, and stores the other user predicted value received by the server 110 in step 230 in the memory.

Next, at step 240, a market forecast regarding corporate performance is calculated using a plurality of user forecast values received from the client terminal 120, the client terminal 130, and other client terminals and stored in the memory. The market forecast calculated from the plurality of user forecast values is represented by, for example, the average value and standard deviation of the plurality of user forecast values. The predicted value of a specific user may be included or excluded when calculating the market forecast. Further, the market forecast may be calculated or validated only when there is a certain number or more of user forecast values.

Next, in step 250, the deviation value from the market prediction is calculated for the user prediction value transmitted from at least one of the client terminals, for example, the client terminal 120. The deviation value is, for example, the difference between the user predicted value and the average value.

Next, in step 260, when the deviation value is equal to or larger than a predetermined value, an alert is transmitted to the client terminal 120. The predetermined value may be 1 or 2 times the standard deviation, or may be a predetermined ratio (eg 10% or 15%) to the average value. When there is a large temporary change in the business performance of a company, for example, for a company whose annual operating income is approximately 10 billion yen, operating income was 1 billion yen in the previous year due to temporary factors. , The business forecast for the next year may vary greatly. In such a case, normalization or correction may be performed.

In step 260, the alert is transmitted only when the past performance of the user is more than a certain level, for example, when the difference between the past user predicted value and the actual performance value of the company is within a predetermined range. May be. The term “within a predetermined range” includes, for example, a case where the past predicted values of the respective users for the company are ranked in the order of being closer to the actual value, and the predicted values of the user are ranked higher. When there are predicted values and actual values for a plurality of years, weighting may be applied to the more recent ranks and averaged, or weighting may be applied to ranks in which the fluctuation in performance was greater. The averaged rank may be expressed in quartiles or quintiles.

In step 260, the alert may be sent only when the user has high confidence in the predicted value.

The alert indicates that there is a gap between the company's own forecast and the market forecast with respect to the company's performance forecast, and if the user's forecast hits, the user will be surprised by the market forecast and the stock price of the company will be large. You can expect to move. The alert may be displayed as, for example, “focused brand” or “trade recommended brand”.

Next, in step 270, the performance forecast management method 200 ends.

In the above example, the market forecast can be updated regularly or irregularly. For example, the latest forecast values of all users who have made forecasts of a specific fiscal year of a specific company are collected, the average and standard deviation of the forecast values of all users excluding their own forecast values are calculated, and the updated market Each user may be notified whether the difference between the prediction and the self prediction is smaller or larger than the previously calculated one.

The present technology enables a large number of users to easily share and manage business performance forecasts, and enables stock investment recommendations that respect the performance forecasts of each user, including individuals and small-scale investors. In addition, it will be possible to grasp the latest market forecast without waiting for the number of analysts, which takes a long time due to a long internal process for changing forecasts such as securities companies and research companies. For example, it can be applied to the purpose of supporting the decision of buying or selling a stock in an individual who is forecasting performance or an institutional investor whose occupation is stock investment.

100 Performance forecast management system 110 Server 120, 130 Client terminal

Claims (10)

A method of managing forecasts on a computer,
Calculating market forecasts from multiple user forecasts,
Calculating a deviation value from the market forecast for its own forecast value,
Including transmitting an alert indicating that the predicted value of itself may be a surprise when the deviation value is a predetermined value or more,
Predictive management method. The alert indicating that it can be a surprise includes an alert indicating a profit possibility,
The prediction management method according to claim 1. The market forecast includes an average value and a standard deviation of the plurality of user forecast values,
The prediction management method according to claim 1. The deviation value is a difference between the user predicted value and an average value of the plurality of user predicted values,
The prediction management method according to claim 3. The predetermined value is 1 or 2 times the standard deviation,
The prediction management method according to claim 4. The divergence value may send the alert if a predetermined value or more, past performance predictions of the self is performed only when it is constant or more,
The prediction management method according to claim 1. The market forecast is updated on a regular or irregular basis,
The prediction management method according to claim 1 . By sending a pre-Kia alert sends only alerts of when there is high confidence in the predicted value of the self,
The prediction management method according to claim 1. On a server with a processor,
Calculating market forecasts from multiple user forecasts,
Calculating a deviation value from the market forecast for its own forecast value,
When the deviation value is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, an alert indicating that the predicted value of the self can be a surprise is transmitted,
A computer-readable recording medium in which a program for executing is recorded. Calculating market forecasts from multiple user forecasts,
Calculating a deviation value from the market forecast for its own forecast value,
When the deviation value is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, an alert indicating that the predicted value of the self can be a surprise is transmitted,
A program that causes a computer to execute.

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