JP2019079482A - Prediction management method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a system and a method capable of easily sharing and managing the prediction of the business performance of an enterprise by a large number of users, and also capable of recommending equity investment taking into consideration the prediction of the business performance of the users including individuals and small-sized investors.SOLUTION: Each of client terminals sends a user prediction value related to the business performance of an enterprise to a server. The server stores the user prediction value received from the client terminal in a memory, calculates market prediction from a plurality of the stored user prediction values, calculates a deviation value with respect to the market prediction about the user prediction value which is sent from at least one client terminal, and when the deviation value is not smaller than a prescribed value, sends an alert to at least one client terminal.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present technology relates to systems and methods for managing business performance forecasts.

  The following can be considered as the recommended methods for buying and selling stocks of companies.

(1) Judge based on stock prices.
For example, if the absolute stock price is too high, then it is recommended to sell, and if it is too low, it is recommended to buy. In addition, if the stock price rises in a certain period is too large, we recommend selling, and if the decline is too large, we recommend buying.

(2) Judge based on market capitalization.
For example, it recommends buying if it is cheap compared with the market capitalization of similar companies. In addition, small size stocks with small absolute value of market capitalization are recommended to buy as there is room to rise, and large size stocks with large absolute size are recommended to sell as small room to rise.

(3) Judge based on the forecasts of analysts of securities companies and research companies.
Judging that the analyst's performance forecast is cheap or expensive. For example, according to an analyst in charge of the electronics sector, company A recommends that the stock price or market capitalization be low for its performance, and that it be recommended.
It also predicts surprises based on the performance forecasts of specific analysts. For example, a particular analyst B buys the company A's performance over the consensus, as opposed to the consensus of an unspecified number of analysts that Nikkei QUICK News, Bloomberg, a securities company, a research company etc. Make a recommendation.

(4) Recommendation of basket Recommend a large number of unspecified stocks in a specific theme or sector. For example, we recommend buying 30 stocks of AI-related companies as AI (Artificial Intelligence) will grow in the future.
In addition, it recommends a large number of unspecified stocks that are extracted based on some index such as dividend payout ratio and return on equity (ROE). For example, we recommend buying a high dividend yield issue. However, this is judged based on the forecasts of securities companies and research companies, and the figures of plans or results of each listed company.

Unexamined-Japanese-Patent No. 2007-264969 JP, 2011-232954, A

  The stock price is not determined by the securities company or the research company, but is determined by the supply and demand of stock market participants. It is desirable to have a system or a method that makes recommendations based on each user's idea based on the user's own performance forecast that can be a stock market participant, rather than that of a securities company or research institution or a third party.

  In addition, a system or method capable of collecting and analyzing performance forecasts of many users is desired.

In addition, a system or method is recommended that is recommended based on the average and distribution of performance forecasts of system participants.

Further, a system or method is desired that corrects the recommendations by fluctuations in the average of the system participant's performance forecasts.

Furthermore, a system or method is recommended that recommends whether long-term holding should be based on performance forecasts rather than stock prices.

Furthermore, a system or method is recommended that recommends whether to put into action based on the user's past performance.

  The present technology is, for example, a method of managing predictions in a computer, including calculating a market prediction from a plurality of user prediction values, and calculating a deviation from the market prediction for at least one user prediction value. , Including forecast management methods.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a performance forecast management system according to an embodiment of the present technology. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a method of managing performance forecasts according to an embodiment of the present technology.

  FIG. 1 shows a performance forecast management system 100 according to an embodiment of the present technology.

The performance prediction management system 100 includes a server 110 connected to the Internet 140, a client terminal 120 and a client terminal 130.

The server 110 is a computer having a function of communicating with the client terminal 120 and the client terminal 130 via the Internet. The client terminal 120 is a computer, a tablet terminal or a smartphone having a function of communicating with the server 110 via the Internet, and the client terminal 130 is similar. Not only the client terminal 120 and the client terminal 130 but also more client terminals can be connected.

FIG. 2 illustrates a method 200 for managing performance forecasts according to an embodiment of the present technology.

In step 210, the performance forecast management method 200 is started on the server 110. Next, at step 220, a user forecast value regarding corporate performance is received. The user prediction value regarding corporate performance is input by the user to the client terminal 120 and transmitted from the client terminal 120 to the server 110.

The user forecast value regarding corporate performance includes, for example, a forecast value regarding the continuous profit of the company. The forecast value for the company's continuous profit includes the forecast value for at least one of the company's sales, operating profit, profit before tax, net profit, profit per share, and other indicators. The forecast value of one of these or other indicator from multiple forecasts of sales, operating profit, profit before tax, net profit, and profit per share of the company by weighted average method etc. The server 110 may calculate the The forecasted value regarding the continuous profit of the company may be an index specified in advance by the company or the industry to which it belongs.

  Next, in step 230, the user prediction value received from the client terminal 120 is stored in a memory (not shown) in the server 110. The memory may be a magnetic storage device such as a hard disk drive (HDD) or a semiconductor storage device such as a solid state drive (SSD).

  Also for the client terminal 130 and the other client terminals, the server 110 receives the other user prediction value regarding the business performance in step 220, and stores the other user prediction value received by the server 110 in the memory in step 230.

  Next, in step 240, a plurality of user forecast values received from the client terminal 120, the client terminal 130 and other client terminals and stored in the memory are used to calculate a market forecast related to corporate performance. The market forecast calculated from the plurality of user forecast values is represented, for example, by an average value and a standard deviation of the plurality of user forecast values. When calculating the market forecast, the forecast value of a specific user may be included or excluded. Further, the market forecast may be calculated or validated only when there is a predetermined number or more of user forecast values.

  Next, in step 250, a deviation value to the market prediction is calculated for the user prediction value transmitted from at least one of the client terminals, for example, the client terminal 120. The divergence value is, for example, the difference between the user prediction value and the average value.

  Next, in step 260, an alert is transmitted to the client terminal 120 when the divergence value is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. The predetermined value may be one or two times the standard deviation, and may be a predetermined ratio (for example, 10% or 15%) to the average value. If there is a temporary change in the company's performance, for example, if the company's annual operating profit continues to be approximately 10 billion yen, the operating profit will be 1 billion yen in the previous year due to temporary factors The forecast for the next year's performance may vary widely. In such a case, normalization or correction may be performed.

  In step 260, if the user's past performance is more than a certain level, for example, an alert is sent only when the difference between the past user's predicted value and the performance value of the company's performance is within a predetermined range. May be Within the predetermined range, for example, the past predicted values of each user for the company are ranked in order of closeness to the actual value, and the predicted values of the user are ranked high. When there are forecast values and actual values in multiple years, more recent ranks may be weighted and averaged, and ranks of years in which performance fluctuation is larger may be weighted and averaged. The averaged rank may be expressed in quartiles or quintiles.

  In step 260, the alert may also be sent only if the user's confidence in the predicted value is high.

  The alert indicates that there is a gap between the company's performance forecast and the market forecast with respect to the company's performance forecast, which allows the user to be surprised for the market forecast if his forecast is true, and the stock price of the company is large. You can expect to move. The alert may be displayed as, for example, "notable brand" or "trade recommended brand".

  Next, at step 270, the performance forecast management method 200 ends.

  In the above example, the market forecasts can be updated regularly or irregularly. For example, the latest forecast values of all users who forecast a specific financial period of a specific company are collected, and the average and standard deviation of the forecast values of all except self forecast values are calculated, and the updated market Each user may be notified if the difference between the prediction and his prediction has become smaller or larger than previously calculated.

  The technology makes it easy to share and manage business performance forecasts by a large number of users, and enables equity investment recommendations that respect the performance forecasts of each user, including individuals and small scale investors. It also enables securities companies and research firms to take a long time in the process of changing forecasts, so that it is possible to grasp the latest market forecasts without waiting for analysts who take time. For example, the present invention can be applied to use for supporting decision making on buying and selling of stocks in individuals who are forecasting business results or in institutional investors who are engaged in equity investment.

100 Performance Forecast Management System 110 Server 120, 130 Client Terminal

Claims (17)

A method of managing predictions on a computer, comprising
Calculating a market forecast from the plurality of user forecast values;
Calculating a deviation value for the market forecast for the at least one user forecast value,
Predictive management method. And sending an alert if the deviation value is greater than or equal to a predetermined value.
The prediction management method according to claim 1. The said user forecast value includes the forecast value regarding the continuous profit of the company,
The prediction management method according to claim 2. The forecast value on the continuous profit of the company includes a forecast value on at least one of sales, operating profit, profit before tax, net profit and profit per share of the company.
The prediction management method according to claim 3. The predicted user value is calculated from at least two of sales, operating profit, profit before tax, net profit, and profit per share of the company.
The prediction management method according to claim 4. The market forecast includes an average value and a standard deviation of the plurality of user forecast values.
The prediction management method according to claim 1. The deviation value is a difference between the user prediction value and an average value of the plurality of user prediction values.
The prediction management method according to claim 6. The predetermined value is one or two times the standard deviation.
The prediction management method according to claim 7. Sending an alert when the deviation value is equal to or more than a predetermined value is performed only when the past performance of the user is equal to or more than a predetermined value.
The prediction management method according to claim 2. The difference between the past user predicted value and the performance value of the company's performance is within a predetermined range that the past performance of the user predicted value is a certain level or more.
The prediction management method according to claim 9. When the past results of the user predicted value are at least a certain level, the user predicted value is at least a certain value when ranking is performed in the order of small differences between each past user predicted value and the actual value of the business performance of the company Is the rank,
The prediction management method according to claim 9. Said market forecast is updated regularly or irregularly,
The prediction management method according to claim 6. Sending the alert sends an alert only if the user is confident about the predicted value.
The prediction management method according to claim 2. The alert includes the display of "notable stocks" or "recommended trading".
The prediction management method according to claim 2. To a server with a processor
Calculating a market forecast from multiple user forecast values;
A computer readable recording medium having recorded thereon a program for performing: calculating a deviation value to the market prediction for at least one user prediction value. Calculating a market forecast from multiple user forecast values;
A program for causing a computer to execute: calculating a deviation value with respect to the market forecast for at least one user forecast value. Multiple user forecast values,
Market forecasts calculated from the plurality of user forecast values;
A data structure comprising: deviation values for the market forecast calculated for at least one user forecast value.

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