JP2006350484A - Display method for various kinds of expectation and various kinds of consensus graphs - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To visually display results expectation (results and expectation of company announcement, results expectation of each analyst, and a consensus graph obtained by averaging each the analyst expectation) of a publicly held enterprise to graph and display it on a Web screen. <P>SOLUTION: This display method has: a means acquiring report information including the expectation of the analyst from a brokerage firm 1, and sequentially storing it in a database 4; an application 3 performing graph creation, query issuing to the database 4, and reception processing of a request from a user 6, about the stored report information; and a user terminal 6 accessing the application 3 by use of a public communication line 5 to acquire the desired report information. Drawing processing of the report information is performed in the user terminal 6, data based on a selected item of the report information are graph-displayed on the Web screen of the user terminal 6, and the expectation of the plurality of analysts is displayed on the Web screen by display marks. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a method for displaying various forecasts and various consensus graphs that visually display the performance forecast of a listed company and display it graphically so that it can be easily understood on the screen.

  Traditionally, earnings forecasts for listed companies have been made by means such as quarterly document information based on company quarterly reports. With the recent development of the Internet, information including analyst reports by Web services is also provided.

For example, as shown in “Information Display Method and Information Display System” in Patent Document 1, the fund management status based on actual securities information and the fund's pseudo-operation evaluation according to the user's preference are displayed to make effective investment decisions. An information display system and an information display device for displaying investment trust (fund) information capable of providing information have been proposed.
JP 2001-283000

  However, depending on the conventional information provision method, it is difficult to grasp the trend of the company's business performance, and it is not easy to understand in the visualization. The screen display is a single screen that shows, for example, the change in sales, and various analysts There was a problem that no consideration was given such as displaying the difference between the forecast and the forecasts by various consensus graphs and the results of the company announcement and the forecast.

  The present invention has been developed to solve such problems. In other words, the purpose of the present invention is to visually display the performance forecasts of companies listed on the stock (the results and forecasts of company announcements, the performance forecasts of each analyst, and the consensus graph that averages each analyst forecast) and are easily understood on the screen Thus, it is to provide a display method of various predictions and various consensus graphs that can be displayed graphically.

  The invention according to claim 1 is a means for acquiring report information including analyst forecasts from the securities company (1) and storing it in the database (4) in time series, and creating a graph for the stored report information. An application (3) for issuing a query to the database (4) and receiving a request from the user (6), and using the public communication line (5) to access the application (3) to obtain desired report information The user terminal (6) for acquiring the report information, the report processing of the report information is performed in the user terminal (6), and data based on the selected item of the report information is displayed on the Web screen of the user terminal (6). This is a display method in which a graph is displayed and predictions of a plurality of analysts are displayed as display marks on the Web screen.

The invention according to claim 2 is a graph showing a numerical value (consensus) obtained by displaying the analyst's prediction display marks in time series as time passes with the horizontal axis of the Web screen as a time axis, and averaging each analyst prediction. The forecast is displayed.
According to the third aspect of the present invention, the display mark of the analyst prediction is symbolized for each of “upward correction”, “downward correction”, “no change”, and other elements.
In the invention according to the fourth aspect, the consensus graph and each analyst prediction are displayed in different colors for the display marks symbolized by “upward correction”, “downward correction”, “no change” and other elements.
In the invention according to claim 5, the Web screen is a two-screen display in which data based on different items is displayed in a graph when displaying a business forecast or the like.
The invention according to claim 6 easily displays various analyst forecasts, various consensus graphs, company announcement results, and deviations between forecasts.

According to the first aspect of the present invention, since a plurality of analyst predictions are displayed with display marks on the Web screen together with data based on the selected item of the report information, various simple predictions are possible.
Since the display mark of the analyst prediction is displayed in time series as time elapses, the trend can be easily grasped.
In the invention according to claim 3, since the display mark of the analyst prediction is symbolized for each of “upward correction”, “downward correction”, “no change” and other elements, the tendency can be grasped at a glance. Can do.
In the invention according to claim 4, since the display mark symbolized for each of the elements “upward correction”, “downward correction”, “no change” and the like is displayed in different colors, the recognition of the display mark is further enhanced. It can be done easily.
In the invention according to claim 5, since the Web screen is a two-screen display in which data based on different items is displayed in a graph, it is possible to display a plurality of data on one Web screen and to improve the accuracy of the business forecast. To do.
The invention according to claim 6 is useful for predicting the stock price impact of the company announcement forecast and the performance correction because the divergence between the various analyst forecasts, the various consensus graphs, the company announcement performance and the forecast can be displayed.

  The present invention acquires report information including an analyst's expectation from a securities company, displays data based on the selected item of report information in a graph on the Web screen of the user terminal, and displays a plurality of data on this Web screen. The analyst's expectation is displayed as a display mark.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a system that is a premise for displaying a Web screen by a display method of various predictions and various consensus graphs of Embodiment 1 of the present invention and a processing procedure for displaying the system.
The system shown in FIG. 1 is a system on which a web screen is displayed. Report information including analyst predictions is given to the input system 2 from a large number of securities companies 1. In this input system 2, various forecast data and change status are input. This input data is stored in the database 4. The application 3 is an application that performs drawing creation for the accumulated report information, issuance of a query to the database 4, processing for receiving a request from the user 6, and the like.

  From the user terminal of the user 6, an item of data to be displayed is specified via the public communication line 5. That is, selection is possible as key items such as stock code, closing date, consolidated closing and single closing (consecutive closing), final closing and interim closing and quarterly disclosure classification (quarterly classification). In the application 3, the corresponding data is extracted from the database 4 based on the designated items and graphed.

FIG. 2 is an item showing a creation procedure for creating a graph. FIG. 3 is an example of each analyst prediction data. FIG. 4 is an example of company forecast data. FIG. 5 is an example of consensus data.
An example of information exchange processing between the securities company 1 and the input system 2 will be described with reference to FIGS. First, in “Step 1”, display items are designated.
User 6 requests an item to be displayed. Based on this request, the extracted data is defined on the server side. Requested main key item, stock code, closing date, consolidated closing and single closing (consecutive), final closing and interim closing, quarterly disclosure classification (quarter quarter), display period, and display expected value.

In “Step 2”, data is extracted from the database 4. That is, data extracted according to the above rules is extracted for each analyst forecast data, company forecast data, and consensus data within a display period range.
Data of the corresponding primary key item is extracted from the database 4 within the range of the display period.
The extracted data includes analyst forecast data, company forecast data, and consensus data. The data items of the analyst forecast data and the company forecast data are a corresponding forecast value, a change flag, and a latest flag. The data item of the consensus data is a consensus value of the expected value corresponding to the data date.
Further, the accompanying data is extracted. The MAX value and the MIN value of the expected value in the corresponding period are extracted.

In “Step 3”, drawing and a graph as shown in FIG. That is, the analyst prediction data is drawn. In this graph, the date (report date) is set on the horizontal axis, and the predicted value is set (MAX value to MIN value) on the vertical axis.
When plotting data, fill in according to the rules shown in Table 1. The shape of the plot is changed according to the change flag as shown in Table 1. Also, the latest version changes the color by changing the numerical value.

The drawing method when drawing the company forecast is the same as the analyst forecast. However, the color of the latest value is one color regardless of the “variation type”.
When plotting data, fill in the plot according to the rules shown in Table 2.

  When drawing consensus data, the consensus data is graphed in time series as shown in FIG.

  Finally, in “Step 4”, the graph created as described above is distributed to each user terminal 6.

FIG. 7 is a Web screen displaying the “Ordinary profit” forecast of Company A. FIG. 8 is a Web screen that displays the “ordinary profit” forecast of company A thereafter.
In this way, in the information providing company, various types of information are organized and stored in time series. However, users who have a membership contract with this information providing company access from time to time using their user terminals 6. be able to. First, when the information provider is accessed, the top page is displayed. Then, the menu is displayed by entering the login name and password. Select one of the pages such as “Consensus”, “Latest”, “Overview”, “Surprises”, “Revision”, “My Room”, etc. To do. For example, “Company A” is specified, the closing period on the left side of the screen is “March 2005”, the closing period on the right side is “March 2006”, and items (sales, operating income, ordinary income, current period) Specify "Ordinary profit" from profit, EPS (report), EPS (NP / number of shares), etc., specify "Full year" for the period (full year, first half, quarter), and "Automatic"", The Web screen of" Consensus "as a graph of the end of June and year (12 months) of Company A is in the state shown in Fig. 7. This Web screen is a two-screen display, and the left side is" “Recurring profit” of “March 2005”, and “Rational profit” of “March 2006” is displayed on the right side.

  Therefore, a characteristic point of this Web screen is that symbolized notations such as ▲, ▼, ■, and ● are displayed together with a consensus graph (a consensus graph obtained by averaging analyst predictions). The contents of these symbolized notations are as shown in Tables 1 and 2.

  Here, the ▲ (blue), ▼ (red), ■ (yellow), and ● (green), which are color-coded, relate to analysts, and when multiple securities companies are writing reports, Is written in multiple numbers. ▲ (blue) is the forecast raised from the previous forecast, ▼ (red) is the forecast lower than the previous forecast, and ■ (yellow) is the forecast unchanged from the previous forecast. ● (green) is the prediction of the brand that was newly surveyed. In addition, the symbolized notation such as ▲ 1, ▼ 1, ■ 1, ● 1, etc., displayed in “brown” is a forecast of the performance announced by the listed company. The notation of △ 1, ▽ 1, □ 1, ○ 1 history indicates the past expected numerical value.

  Therefore, in Fig. 7, the analysts of multiple securities companies attached a ▲ (blue) for recurring profit in late May 2004. This is because the display of ▲ (blue) will increase over time. It also suggests that the business forecast is likely to be revised upward. The graph of Company A's end-of-August / half-year (6 months) graph displayed under the same conditions as in Fig. 7 is shown in Fig. 8, but it is the actual company as expected in ▲ (blue) in Fig. 7. Earnings have been revised upwards, and analysts have further revised their earnings forecasts following the company announcement.

  There are several points to keep in mind when viewing such a Web screen. First, analyst tendencies are as follows. When analysts adjust their expected profits, they tend to expect in the same direction as other analysts, and as a result, profit adjustments often continue in the same direction over time. Market participants, especially institutional investors, may be suspicious that their analyst's analysis is correct if the analyst modifies the expected profit significantly but does not follow other analysts. As a result, there is a strong tendency to make corrections small. Analysts who change their views in a short period of time may lose the trust of institutional investors, and once the forecast profit is revised upward, it will not be revised downward unless there is a significant amount. Therefore, analysts generally do not change their views for about three months once they change their expectations. Therefore, if an analyst adjusts the profit forecast for the current month upward, it is likely that the next month will be revised upward.

  In general, the trend of institutional investors' investment behavior is as follows. In other words, the response of institutional investors to the adjustment of the expected profits of analysts of companies and securities companies tends to be slightly delayed due to factors such as confirmation by the company's own research department in order to determine whether the correction is correct. There is. In addition, regarding stock price trends, the stock price of upwardly revised issues will tend to become gradually slower because market participants expect that upward revision will continue in the future if the upward revision is repeated for a long time.

  When viewing a Web screen based on this trend, the analyst predictions symbolized by ▲, ▼, ■, ●, etc. are displayed in different colors along with the consensus graph. Is very easy to see, so it can be used as a reference for investment decisions. In other words, analyst forecasts of multiple securities companies are displayed on the web screen as data based on the selected items, so that it is possible to easily forecast business results. In addition, the analyst forecast display marks are displayed in chronological order over time, so it is easy to grasp the trend, and the analyst forecast display marks are "upward revision", "downward revision", "no change" "Because it is symbolized for each other element, the tendency can be grasped at a glance." Upward revision "," Downward revision "," No change ", Display mark symbolized for each other element Since each is displayed in a different color, the display mark can be recognized more easily. Further, since the Web screen is a two-screen display in which data based on different items are displayed in a graph, a plurality of data can be displayed on one Web screen.

FIG. 9 is a Web screen that displays the B company's “ordinary profit” forecast. FIG. 10 is a Web screen that displays the subsequent “ordinary profit” forecast of company B.
Next, FIG. 9 and FIG. 10 show examples of the company B which displays the same screen as the company A web screen shown in FIG. 7 and FIG.
In FIG. 9, ▼ (red) has begun to appear, suggesting that the business forecast may be revised downward. Next, in FIG. 10, ▼ (red) increases, indicating that the possibility that the business performance forecast of the company will be revised downward has further increased.

  In any of the above-mentioned Web screens, by selecting “Latest” as an item, the divergence between individual analyst predictions and analyst consensus is displayed. It can also be done easily.

  In addition, this invention is not limited to embodiment of the invention mentioned above, Report information including an analyst's expectation is acquired from the securities company 1, and the selected item of report information is displayed on the Web screen of the user terminal 6. The method is not limited to the method shown in the figure as long as it is a method for displaying the data based on the graph and displaying the predictions of a plurality of analysts on the Web screen as display marks. Of course, it can be changed.

  The display method of various forecasts and various consensus graphs of the present invention can be used not only for visually displaying the performance forecast of a listed company but also for other performance forecasts.

It is a block diagram which shows the system used as the premise to display a web screen by the display method of various predictions and various consensus graphs of Example 1 of this invention, and the process sequence for displaying it. This is an item indicating a creation procedure for creating a graph. It is an example of each analyst prediction data. It is an example of company forecast data. It is an example of consensus data. It is a graph with consensus data. It is a Web screen displaying the “Ordinary profit” forecast of Company A. It is a Web screen that displays the “recurring profit” forecast of company A thereafter. It is a Web screen displaying the “Ordinary profit” forecast of Company B. It is a Web screen that displays the “ordinary profit” forecast of company B thereafter.

Explanation of symbols

1 Securities Company 2 Input System 3 Application 4 Database 5 Communication Line 6 User Terminal (User)

Claims (6)

Means for acquiring report information including analyst forecasts from the securities firm (1) and storing it in the database (4) in a time series;
For this accumulated report information, an application (3) for creating a graph, issuing a query to the database (4), and receiving a request from the user (6);
A user terminal (6) for accessing the application (3) using a public communication line (5) to obtain desired report information;
The data based on the selected item of the report information is displayed in a graph on the Web screen of the user terminal (6), and the predictions of a plurality of analysts are displayed as display marks on the Web screen. Display method of various forecasts and various consensus graphs characterized by The analyst's forecast display mark is displayed in time series as time passes with the horizontal axis of the Web screen as the time axis, and the numerical value (consensus) obtained by averaging each analyst forecast is displayed as a graph on the business forecast. The method for displaying various predictions and various consensus graphs according to claim 1. The forecast mark of the analyst is symbolized for each of other factors such as “upward revision”, “downward revision”, “no change”, and the like. How to display the graph. 4. The various predictions and consensus graphs according to claim 3, wherein “upward correction”, “downward correction”, “no change”, and other display symbols symbolized for each element are displayed in different colors. Display method. 4. The method for displaying various forecasts and various consensus graphs according to claim 1 or 3, wherein the Web screen is a two-screen display in which data based on different items is displayed in a graph when displaying a business forecast or the like. . 2. The method for displaying various forecasts and various consensus graphs according to claim 1, wherein deviations between the various analyst forecasts, various consensus graphs, company announcement results, and forecasts are simply displayed.

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