JP7218037B1 - Transaction management system - Google Patents

Abstract

It is possible to provide a transaction management system based on user's own predictions and preset rules. A transaction management server according to the present technology receives each user's forecast value regarding the performance of a company, calculates a market forecast value regarding the performance of the first company from a plurality of user forecast values regarding the performance of the first company, In response to detecting that the first user's predicted value of the performance of the company and the market predicted value of the first company's performance have deviated by a first value or more, from the market data server to the first company and In response to detecting that the investment index of the second company is read and that the investment index of the first company and the investment index of the second company have deviated by a second value or more, the transaction execution server It is configured to retrieve a first user's position with respect to one company and send to a transaction execution server an order to increase the first user's position with respect to the first company.

Description

The present technology relates to systems and methods for managing transactions.

WO 2019/082274 pamphlet describes a stock investment method that enables a large number of users to easily share and manage company performance forecasts, and respects the performance forecasts of each user, including individuals and small investors. For the purpose of making recommendations possible, market forecasts are calculated from multiple user forecast values, the deviation between a specific user forecast and the market forecast is calculated, and an alert is issued when the deviation is greater than or equal to a predetermined value. is disclosed.

In International Publication No. 2019/186988 pamphlet, the user's prediction value and multiple are used for the purpose of supporting stock price prediction by referring to past performance and stock price based on the user's own performance prediction of the company. A technology is disclosed that calculates a stock price and sends an alert when the current stock price read from a database and the theoretical stock price deviate by a predetermined value or more.

WO 2020/084733 pamphlet describes a method for managing the quarterly progress against the annual planned value of corporate performance, and for easily comparing with the user's forecast value for the same period, the company in the first period. Based on the planned value of the performance, calculate the planned value of the corporate performance in the second period by dividing the first period, and calculate the planned value of the corporate performance in the second period and the user A technology is disclosed that compares predicted values and transmits an alert when the planned value for the second period and the predicted value by the user deviate by a predetermined value or more.

WO2021/255815 discloses current market forecasts and user forecasts on economic indicators or corporate performance, and user Accepts the investment policy of , and uses a machine-learned forecast model based on past market forecasts and user forecasts and the investment results that are the results of these forecasts to calculate the investment results predicted from the current market forecasts and user forecasts. A technique is disclosed for simulating and outputting a predicted investment result that satisfies a user's investment policy.

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2002-73985 predicts the future investment behavior of actual investors by reflecting the ever-changing market conditions, and provides information for supporting the investment behavior using the results. Also, for the purpose of constructing a method of automatically implementing actual investment behavior, a virtual market is constructed in a computer that reflects information related to real investors to be supported and current market information. , a proxy investor for a real investor and multiple virtual investors are set up there, and simulations are carried out while reflecting the latest market conditions extracted using a computer network. A technique is disclosed to the effect of predicting an investment behavior.

WO 2019/082274 Pamphlet International Publication No. 2019/186988 pamphlet WO2020/084733 Pamphlet WO 2021/255815 pamphlet JP-A-2002-73985

A system and method that allows individual users to automatically identify market misconceptions and maximize their unique portfolio returns is desired.

Move the investment decision-making process from a subjective to a quantitative one, thereby providing users with an investment process that is (1) automatic, (2) repeatable, (3) scalable, and (4) adjustable. What is desired is a system and method that provides.

A system and method that allows users to enter customized trading processes is desired.

What is desired is a system and method that allows users to enter their own projections of a company's fundamentals (revenues).

What is desired is a system and method that allows users to enter multiple scenarios of economic and fundamental forecasts.

What is desired is a system and method that allows users to anonymously receive real-time forecast ranges and averages for the market.

What is desired is a system and method that allows users to validate their bespoke trading processes based on historical records, allowing performance review and backtesting.

Systems and methods that allow users to review their revenue and KPI projections are desired.

Systems and methods are desired that enable automated trading based on hierarchical rulebooks.

What is desired is a system and method that allows for offloading computer and network resources and speeding up processing.

What is desired is a system and method that enables the identification of stock-specific and/or relative opportunities in real-time while monitoring hundreds of securities.

What is desired is a system and method that allows one to protect a portfolio from various predefined but rare risks while sleeping or away from a monitor.

It would be desirable to have a system and method that would allow immediate response, even if multiple company earnings releases were released at the same time.

A centralized system that can collect all user data is desired, and systems and methods that allow each user to maintain anonymity and allow customization by each user are desired.

It would be desirable to have a system and method that combines separate fundamental analysis inputs with separate trading rule inputs and allows integration with systems provided by stock exchanges and securities brokers.

Systems and methods are provided that combine discrete fundamental analysis inputs with discrete trading rule inputs and integrate with systems provided by stock exchanges and securities brokers.

The present technology includes, for example, a plurality of client devices, a transaction management server communicably connected to the plurality of client devices, a market data server communicably connected to the transaction management server, and a market data server communicably communicable with the transaction management server. and a trade execution server connected to the trade management system, wherein each of a plurality of client devices is configured to transmit a respective user's forecast of the firm's performance to the trade management server; is regularly or irregularly updated, the transaction management server calculates a market forecast value for the performance of the first company from a plurality of user forecast values for the performance of the first company, and the first company detecting that the predicted value of the first user regarding the performance of the company exceeded the market predicted value regarding the performance of the first company by a first value or more, and the multiple of the first company and the first user from the market data server read the multiple of the second company selected in advance, detect that the multiple of the first company exceeds the multiple of the second company by a second value or more, and obtain the first company's multiple from the transaction execution server; reading the position of the user and calculating a first gap between the position of the first user with respect to the first company and a predetermined maximum value, wherein the percentage of daily trading volume of the first gap is less than or equal to the predetermined value; and calculating a second gap between the position of the first user with respect to the second company and a predetermined minimum value, wherein the second gap is a percentage of daily trading volume of a predetermined value and determine that a trade corresponding to the second gap can be submitted, and send the trade execution server an order to increase the first user's position with respect to the first company and the second A transaction management system configured to submit an order to reduce the first user's position with respect to the business.

1 illustrates a transaction management system, in accordance with an embodiment of the present technology; FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a transaction management method in accordance with an embodiment of the present technology;

FIG. 1 illustrates a transaction management system 100 in accordance with embodiments of the present technology. Transaction management system 100 includes transaction management server 120 , market data server 130 , transaction execution server 140 , and client devices 150 and 160 , which are communicably connected via network 110 .

Network 110 may be the Internet, a private network, a virtual private network (VPN), a local area network (LAN), a fifth generation mobile communication system (5G), or a combination thereof. Also, the network 110 may be wired or wireless, or a combination thereof.

Transaction management server 120 is a computer having a processor (not shown), a memory (not shown) storing a program, and a communication function (not shown). Transaction management server 120 executes a program stored in memory in response to a request from client 150 or 160 and returns the result to client 150 or 160 .

The market data server 130 is a computer having a processor (not shown), a memory (not shown) storing programs, and a communication function (not shown). The market data server 130 stores indices such as the company's past performance and current stock prices, and investment indices such as multiples calculated therefrom. A multiple can be a multiple of a company's performance (financial index) and stock price (corporate value/market capitalization). For example, PER (Price Earnings Ratio), PBR (Price-Book value Ratio) : Price book value ratio), EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization), EV/EBIT, EV/OP (EV/Operating Profit), PSR (Price Sale Ratio), PEG ( PER/Growth rate), dividend yield, etc. The market data server 130 may store indicators such as current stock prices and multiples of companies that are regularly or irregularly updated and provide them upon request from the transaction management server 120 . Market data server 130 may be provided by a stock exchange.

The market data server 130 also provides information on 1) stock/security prices (historic and current), 2) stock/security price volatility (eg, over the last 30 days), 3) earnings data (historic and current), 4) sell-side brokers. data (Bloomberg, IFIS, etc.); 5) other user data (anonymous);

Transaction execution server 140 is a computer having a processor (not shown), a memory (not shown) storing a program, and a communication function (not shown). The transaction execution server 140 may store account information, including position information such as the user's stock holding balance, margin transaction balance, asset allocation ratio, and purchasing capacity information. Transaction execution server 140 may also include liquidity information, including average daily trading volume, and availability information, including stock lending volume, for security issues. Transaction execution server 140 may provide such information upon request from transaction management server 120 . Transaction execution server 140 may be provided by a securities company, securities broker, or the like.

The transaction execution server 140 also provides 1) securities data (issue, ticker/ISIN (International Securities Identification Number), and security quantity), 2) transaction fee rate, 3) stock borrowing availability, 4) past earnings forecast, 5) May include historical consensus predictions.

The client 150 or 160 is a computer, tablet terminal, smartphone, or the like that has a function of communicating with the transaction management server 120 via the network 110 connected by wire or wirelessly. Although two clients 150 or 160 are depicted in FIG. 1, there may be only one or three or more.

FIG. 2 illustrates, with reference to FIG. 1, a transaction management method in accordance with an embodiment of the present technology.

In FIG. 2, at step 210 the transaction management method 200 is initiated at the transaction management server 120 .

Next, at step 212, transaction management server 120 receives predictions of a plurality of users, including the first user, regarding the performance of the first company.

Corporate performance is the performance of individual companies, including sales, operating revenue, gross profit, operating profit, ordinary profit, profit before tax, net profit, profit per share, EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes), It may be EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization), dividends, or a combination thereof.

The forecasted values may be forecasted values for a plurality of periods, such as by year or by quarter. The user prediction value may be a prediction value made by the user himself/herself, or may be a prediction value using another user's or analyst's prediction value. A user prediction value may include a confidence measure indicating the user's own degree of confidence in the prediction value. The degree of confidence may be expressed as a numerical value from 0% to 100%, or may be expressed in stages such as "Yes", "No", and "Neither". Also, the user prediction value and confidence level may be updated any number of times.

User forecast values may also include values corresponding to 1) revenue forecast base case, 2) optimistic case of revenue forecast, 3) pessimistic case of revenue forecast, and 4) paired with the first company. /bucket (a pair or group of securities viewed as a hedge).

Next, at step 214, the transaction management server 120 computes a market forecast of the first company's performance from the plurality of user forecasts of the first company's performance. The market prediction value may be the mean, median or mode of multiple user predictions. The market forecast value may be calculated by including or excluding its own forecast value. Also, the average may be a simple average or a weighted average.

Next, at step 216, the transaction management server 120 compares the first user's forecast of the performance of the first company to the market forecast of the performance of the first company, and the first user's forecast is the market forecast of the first company's performance. deviated from (exceeded or fallen below) by a predetermined first value or more. The first value may be one or two times the standard deviation of the multiple user predictions, or may be a predetermined percentage (eg, 10% or 15%) of the market predictions.

The deviation of the first user-predicted value from the market-predicted value by more than a predetermined first value is, for example, 1) if the consensus revenue estimate has moved, or 2) if the consensus revenue estimate has moved across the base case. (from pessimistic to optimistic or vice versa), 3) if consensus earnings estimates shift to optimistic/pessimistic cases, 4) if consensus economic data estimates move, 5) security prices. may include the case where changes more than the price volatility.

Next, at step 218, the trade management server 120 accesses the market data server 130 and retrieves or calculates the first firm's multiple and the second firm's multiple. The second company may be a company arbitrarily selected in advance by the first user, and may be a company belonging to the same or similar industry as the first company. A group of companies comprising a plurality of companies may be the second company, or an index of a particular market may be the second company.

Next, at step 220, the transaction management server 120 compares the first company's multiple with the second company's multiple and determines that the first company's multiple exceeds the second company's multiple by greater than or equal to a predetermined second value. Detect exceeded. The second value may be a value arbitrarily selected by the user, or a value preset by the transaction management server 120 system. Regarding multiples, in this specification, more favorable directions (e.g., decrease in investment indicators that indicate overvalued, decrease in PER, PBR, PSR, PEG, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, EV/OP, undervalued It is said that it exceeded the divergence to the investment index that shows the investment index, the rise in the dividend yield), and it was less than the divergence in the opposite direction, which is more unfavorable.

Next, at step 222, the transaction management server 120 accesses the transaction execution server 140, and at step 216, if the first user prediction exceeds the market prediction by a predetermined first value or more, the first It is determined that it is possible to increase the position of the first user with respect to the enterprise. Alternatively, if in step 216 the first user forecast falls below the market forecast by more than a predetermined first value, then the first user's position with respect to the first company can be decreased. decide.

Determining that it is possible to increase the position of the first user with respect to the first company may be accomplished by, for example: (1) the current position of the first user with respect to the first company; calculates the gap from a predetermined maximum position and determines that there is room to further increase the position; Determining that the percentage is less than or equal to a predetermined value and thus meets a predetermined liquidity may be included. Alternatively, the predetermined value may be set to 5 to 10% or less of the total market turnover so that trading can be performed without greatly affecting the market price.

Next at step 224, if the transaction management server 120 accesses the transaction execution server 140 and determines at step 222 that the first user's position with respect to the first company can be increased, then: It is determined that it is possible to reduce the position of the first user with respect to the second company. Or, if step 222 determined that the first user's position with respect to the first company can be decreased, then the first user's position with respect to the second company can be increased. decide to be

Determining that it is possible to decrease the first user's position with respect to the second company involves, for example: (1) the first user's current position with respect to the second company and the first user's position with respect to the second company; calculates the gap from a predetermined minimum position and determines that there is room to further reduce the position; and (3) if the transaction to fill the gap includes shorting the security issue, the securities company or securities broker determines that the ratio is less than or equal to the specified value and thus satisfies the specified liquidity; It may also include determining that it has inventory and that a transaction corresponding to the gap is orderable, thus meeting a predetermined availability. In this specification, a position can take both positive and negative values. If the position is positive, it means that you are holding or buying securities, and if it is negative, you are selling securities. shall mean that Therefore, reducing a position includes not only reducing the number of securities held, but also increasing the number of securities sold short for a security issue, and further including selling and shorting securities in combination.

Next, step 226 determines that the first user's position with the first company can be increased at step 222 and decreases the first user's position with the second company at step 224. If so, transaction management server 120 sends transaction execution server 140 an order to increase the first user's position with respect to the first company and the first user's position with respect to the second company. Submit an order to decrease the position. Alternatively, it may be determined at step 222 that the first user's position with respect to the first company may be decreased, and at step 224 the first user's position with respect to the second company may be increased. If so, the deal management server 120 sends the deal execution server 140 an order to decrease the first user's position with respect to the first company and increase the first user's position with respect to the second company. Submit your order. If there are restrictions on position reduction (for example, short selling is prohibited), only orders that increase one company's position may be sent. Orders may be sent automatically by transaction management server 120, or may be sent in response to user confirmation (including other users belonging to the same organization). good too. Alternatively, an alert may be issued instead of sending the order.

Next, at step 228, the transaction management method 200 ends.

The technology makes it possible to provide a trading management system based on user's own predictions and preset rules.

100 transaction management system 110 network 120 transaction management server 130 market data server 140 transaction execution servers 150, 160 client device

Claims (18)

a plurality of client devices; a transaction management server communicatively connected to the plurality of client devices; a market data server communicatively connected to the transaction management server; and a market data server communicatively connected to the transaction management server. In a transaction management system including a transaction execution server,
each of the plurality of client devices is configured to transmit each user's prediction of company performance to the transaction management server;
wherein the market data server is configured to periodically or irregularly update company multiples;
The transaction management server
calculating a market prediction value for the performance of the first company from a plurality of user prediction values for the performance of the first company;
Detecting that the first user's predicted value of the performance of the first company exceeds the market predicted value of the performance of the first company by a first value or more;
reading from the market data server a multiple of the first company and a multiple of a second company pre-selected by the first user;
detecting that the multiple of the first company exceeds the multiple of the second company by a second value or more;
reading the first user's position with respect to the first company from the transaction execution server;
calculating a first gap between the first user's position with respect to the first company and a predetermined maximum;
determining that the percentage of daily trading volume of the first gap is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
calculating a second gap between the first user's position with respect to the second company and a predetermined minimum;
determining that the percentage of daily trading volume of the second gap is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
determining that a trade corresponding to the second gap is available for submission;
configured to send to the transaction execution server an order to increase the first user's position with respect to the first company and an order to decrease the first user's position with respect to the second company;
Transaction management system. A trade management server communicatively connected to a plurality of client devices, a market data server, and a trade execution server,
receiving, from each of the plurality of client devices, each user's forecast of company performance;
Periodically or irregularly calculating a market forecast value for the performance of the first company from a plurality of user forecast values for the performance of the first company;
from the market data server in response to detecting that the first user's predicted value regarding the performance of the first company and the market predicted value regarding the performance of the first company deviated by a first value or more; reading investment indices of the first company and a second company pre-selected by the first user;
In response to detecting that the investment index of the first company and the investment index of the second company have deviated by a second value or more, read the position of one user,
configured to send to the execution server an order to increase or decrease the position of the first user with respect to the first company;
Transaction management server. Further, reading the position of the first user regarding the second company from the transaction execution server;
configured to send to the execution server an order to decrease the first user's position with respect to the second company;
The transaction management server according to claim 2. Furthermore, the transaction management server
calculating a gap between the first user's position with respect to the first company and a predetermined maximum;
configured to determine that the gap as a percentage of daily trading volume is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
The transaction management server according to claim 2. Furthermore, the transaction management server
calculating a gap between the first user's position with respect to the second company and a predetermined minimum;
determining that the percentage of daily trading volume of the gap is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
configured to determine that a trade corresponding to the gap is available for submission;
The transaction management server according to claim 3. A method of managing transactions in a computer, said computer comprising:
receiving predictions of a plurality of users, including the first user, regarding the performance of the first company;
calculating a market forecast value for the performance of the first company from a plurality of user forecast values for the performance of the first company;
detecting that the first user-predicted value of the performance of the first company exceeds the market-predicted value of the first company's performance by a first value or more;
calculating a multiple of the first company and a multiple of a second company pre-selected by the first user;
detecting that the multiple of the first company exceeds the multiple of the second company by a second value or more;
determining that it is possible to increase the first user's position with the first company and sending an order to increase the first user's position with the first company;
Transaction management method. the computer further determines that the first user's position with respect to the second company can be decreased;
The transaction management method according to claim 6. Further, the computer sends an order to decrease the first user's position with the second company.
Transaction management method according to claim 7. determining that it is possible to increase the first user's position with the first company;
calculating a gap between the first user's position with respect to the first company and a predetermined maximum;
determining that the percentage of daily trading volume of the gap is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
7. The method of claim 6. determining that it is possible to decrease the position of the first user with respect to the second company;
calculating a gap between the first user's position with respect to the second company and a predetermined minimum;
determining that the percentage of daily trading volume of the gap is less than or equal to a predetermined value;
determining that a trade corresponding to the gap is available for submission;
8. The method of claim 7. sending an order to increase the first user's position with the first company is automatically performed by the computer;
7. The method of claim 6. sending an order to increase the first user's position with the first company is performed by the computer in response to user confirmation;
7. The method of claim 6. sending an order to increase the first user's position with the first company;
7. The method of claim 6, automatically by the computer or in response to user confirmation, depending on the time of day. The market prediction value is the average, median or mode of the plurality of user prediction values,
7. The method of claim 6. sending an order to decrease the first user's position with the second company is automatically performed by the computer;
9. The method of claim 8. sending an order to decrease the first user's position with the second company is performed by the computer in response to user confirmation;
9. The method of claim 8. sending an order to decrease the first user's position with the second company;
9. The method of claim 8, automatically by the computer or in response to user confirmation, depending on the time of day. on the computer that manages the transaction,
receiving predictions of a plurality of users, including the first user, regarding the performance of the first company;
calculating a market forecast value for the performance of the first company from a plurality of user forecast values for the performance of the first company;
detecting that the first user-predicted value of the performance of the first company exceeds the market-predicted value of the first company's performance by a first value or more;
calculating a multiple for the first company and a multiple for a second company pre-selected by the first user;
detecting that the multiple of the first company exceeds the multiple of the second company by a second value or more;
determining that it is possible to increase the first user's position with the first company;
determining that it is possible to decrease the position of the first user with respect to the second company;
sending an order to increase the first user's position with the first company;
I recorded a program to run the
Computer-readable recording medium.

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