JP6562491B1 - 期待値計算による発電量精密予測法、期待値計算による発電量精密予測システムおよび期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラム - Google Patents
期待値計算による発電量精密予測法、期待値計算による発電量精密予測システムおよび期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラム Download PDFInfo
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- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/381—Dispersed generators
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02S—GENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER BY CONVERSION OF INFRARED RADIATION, VISIBLE LIGHT OR ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT, e.g. USING PHOTOVOLTAIC [PV] MODULES
- H02S50/00—Monitoring or testing of PV systems, e.g. load balancing or fault identification
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- G05B2219/00—Program-control systems
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- G05B2219/26—Pc applications
- G05B2219/2639—Energy management, use maximum of cheap power, keep peak load low
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- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
- H02J13/00002—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by monitoring
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
- H02J13/00006—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network characterised by information or instructions transport means between the monitoring, controlling or managing units and monitored, controlled or operated power network element or electrical equipment
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- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
- H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
- H02J2300/22—The renewable source being solar energy
- H02J2300/24—The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin
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Abstract
Description
2 コンピュータ装置
3 発電装置
4 出力装置
21 入力手段
22 表示手段
23 管理手段
24 日射量分析手段
25 発電量予測手段
26 収益性評価手段
201 演算装置
202 主記憶装置
203 補助記憶装置
204 入力装置
205 表示装置
206 通信装置
301 光電変換装置
302 通信装置
401 電力変換装置
402 通信装置
2001 プログラム
2002 OS
C1、C2、C3 条件
DB データベース
D10 日射量データ
D20 発電特性データ
D30 出力特性データ
D40 設備投資データ
NW ネットワーク
P0 ピークカットライン
P1 発電量平均値推移
P2 発電量期待値推移
S10、S20、S30、S40、S50、S60A、S60B、S60C、S70、S80 ステップ
Claims (3)
- 期待値計算による発電量精密予測法であって、
日射量データに基づき、単位時間毎の日射量および日射量出現確率を決定する日射量分析ステップと、
前記日射量に基づき発電量を決定し、前記日射量に対応する単位時間毎の前記発電量および日射量出現確率に基づき、発電量期待値を決定する発電量予測ステップと、
をコンピュータのプロセッサに実行させ、
前記発電量予測ステップは、最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量および発電効率を示す発電特性データ、および、超過分がピークカットロスとなるような容量と出力効率とを示す出力特性データに基づき、ゼロである第1の発電量および前記最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量である第1の日射量と、前記容量である第2の発電量と、を決定し、前記容量を満たす場合の前記日射量である第2の日射量を前記第2の発電量および発電効率に基づき決定し、前記日射量が前記第1の日射量を下回る場合、前記第1の発電量を前記発電量として決定し、前記日射量が前記第2の日射量を上回る場合、前記第2の発電量を前記発電量として決定する、
期待値計算による発電量精密予測法。 - 期待値計算による発電量精密予測システムであって、
日射量データに基づき、単位時間毎の日射量および日射量出現確率を決定する日射量分析手段と、
前記日射量に基づき発電量を決定し、前記日射量に対応する単位時間毎の前記発電量および日射量出現確率に基づき、発電量期待値を決定する発電量予測手段と、を有し、
前記発電量予測手段は、最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量および発電効率を示す発電特性データ、および、超過分がピークカットロスとなるような容量と出力効率とを示す出力特性データに基づき、ゼロである第1の発電量および前記最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量である第1の日射量と、前記容量である第2の発電量と、を決定し、前記容量を満たす場合の前記日射量である第2の日射量を前記第2の発電量および発電効率に基づき決定し、前記日射量が前記第1の日射量を下回る場合、前記第1の発電量を前記発電量として決定し、前記日射量が前記第2の日射量を上回る場合、前記第2の発電量を前記発電量として決定する、
期待値計算による発電量精密予測システム。 - 期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラムであって、
コンピュータを、
日射量データに基づき、単位時間毎の日射量および日射量出現確率を決定する日射量分析手段と、
前記日射量に基づき発電量を決定し、前記日射量に対応する単位時間毎の前記発電量および日射量出現確率に基づき、発電量期待値を決定する発電量予測手段と、として機能させ、
前記発電量予測手段は、最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量および発電効率を示す発電特性データ、および、超過分がピークカットロスとなるような容量と出力効率とを示す出力特性データに基づき、ゼロである第1の発電量および前記最低出力電力を得るために要される前記日射量である第1の日射量と、前記容量である第2の発電量と、を決定し、前記容量を満たす場合の前記日射量である第2の日射量を前記第2の発電量および発電効率に基づき決定し、前記日射量が前記第1の日射量を下回る場合、前記第1の発電量を前記発電量として決定し、前記日射量が前記第2の日射量を上回る場合、前記第2の発電量を前記発電量として決定する、
期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラム。
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JP2019006478A JP6562491B1 (ja) | 2019-01-18 | 2019-01-18 | 期待値計算による発電量精密予測法、期待値計算による発電量精密予測システムおよび期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラム |
CN201980003901.7A CN111602156B (zh) | 2019-01-18 | 2019-09-13 | 根据期望值计算的发电量精密预测法、根据期望值计算的发电量精密预测系统及根据期望值计算的发电量精密预测程序 |
PCT/JP2019/036017 WO2020148941A1 (ja) | 2019-01-18 | 2019-09-13 | 期待値計算による発電量精密予測法、期待値計算による発電量精密予測システムおよび期待値計算による発電量精密予測プログラム |
US16/623,704 US10998725B2 (en) | 2019-01-18 | 2019-09-13 | Electric power generation prediction method based on expected value calculation, electric power generation prediction system based on expected value calculation, and electric power generation prediction program product based on expected value calculation |
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CN111260147A (zh) * | 2020-02-07 | 2020-06-09 | 河北工程大学 | 发电量预测方法、装置及终端设备 |
CN114336580A (zh) * | 2022-03-09 | 2022-04-12 | 安徽中科海奥电气股份有限公司 | 直流并网太阳能光伏组件的控制方法 |
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US10998725B2 (en) | 2021-05-04 |
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WO2020148941A1 (ja) | 2020-07-23 |
JP2020115722A (ja) | 2020-07-30 |
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