JP5911442B2 - 太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法およびコントローラ - Google Patents
太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法およびコントローラ Download PDFInfo
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Description
時系列データ101は、x1:T’={x1,x2,...,xT’}である。式中、T’は、利用可能なデータエントリーの最大の番号であり、xtは、定期的な、例えば分単位、時間単位、日単位または他の時間間隔での現在の時間tにおけるPV出力を示す。目標は、現在または将来の時間ステップtにおけるPV出力xt(ハット)201を予測する(203)ことである。予測は、時間とともに反復され、時間ステップt>T’+1 202において、前のステップt−1までのPV出力すなわち時系列x1:t−1を所与として、xtが予測される。
Tを用いて、ある間隔での時間数、例えば、1暦日の場合には24または閏年でない1年の場合には8760(=24×365)を示すこととする。部分系列x1:Tは、1:Tからの離散関数である。時系列x1:T内にパターンが存在することに起因して、フーリエ解析120は、そのパターンを一組の正弦関数および余弦関数の和に分解することができる。
したがって、適切な周波数選択130が精度および計算のバランスを確保する際に重要である。周波数選択プロセスは、PV発電量に大きく寄与する支配的な周波数を求める。さらに、このプロセスによって、周波数のサブセットを得ることができ、したがって、その後のステップにおける計算上の利点を得ることができる。その理由は、機能していない周波数(dormant frequency)がPV出力に対して僅かにしか寄与しないことから、それらの周波数が用いられないからである。
1つの従来技術の予測方法は、平均μ(mt,nt)を用いて、次の時間ステップtにおけるPV発電量を推定する。(mt,nt)は、tから変換されることに留意されたい。しかしながら、これは、tにおける気象条件が、正確に、履歴データにおける日次条件の平均値でない限り機能することができない。
太陽発電機は、光起電力(PV)効果を用いて太陽エネルギーを電力に変換する。PVデバイスによって生成されるエネルギーは、クリーンであるとともに再利用可能であるので、PVエネルギーの普及を大幅に高めることができる。
Claims (14)
- 太陽光発電(PV)デバイスの出力を予測する方法であって、
1年の日および1日の時間に従って、データを2次元に整列する整列工程と、
2次元フーリエ解析を前記データに適用する工程であって、前記データにおける周波数と、前記周波数の平均とを得て、前記データは、前記PVデバイスの履歴出力の時系列である、フーリエ解析適用工程と、
回帰解析を前記データに適用して、回帰係数を得る、回帰解析適用工程と、
時間ステップにおける前記平均と、前の時間ステップにおける前記平均からの偏差とを加算することによって、前記時間ステップにおける前記PV出力を予測する工程であって、前記平均は、選択された周波数によって近似され、前記前の時間ステップの前記偏差は、前記回帰係数によって重み付けされる、予測工程と、
を含み、
前記方法の前記工程は、前記PVデバイスを運転する制御方策を生成するコントロールモジュールのプロセッサにおいて実行される、
太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記フーリエ解析は、前記データにおける前記PV出力の日次変動および年次変動を明示的に考慮する、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - スペクトル解析を用いて、前記PVデバイスの前記出力に寄与する前記周波数を決定して、前記周波数を選択する選択工程を更に含む、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 最大の振幅を有する所定の数の前記周波数が選択される、
請求項3に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記周波数の数が適応的に選択される、
請求項3に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記回帰係数は、前記前の時間ステップの偏差を調整する、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記回帰係数は、最小二乗法によって求められる、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 現在の時間ステップの前記PVデバイスの予測される出力は、前記平均として持続性成分μtを用い、変動性成分を前記前の時間ステップからのρ×(xt−1−μt−1)として用いて求められ、式中、ρは、前記回帰係数である、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記データを、第1の時間スケールおよび第2の時間スケールに従って、2次元に整列する整列工程を更に含む、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 前記時間ステップは現在または将来である、
請求項1に記載の太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 太陽光発電(PV)デバイスの出力を予測する方法であって、
フーリエ解析をデータに適用する工程であって、前記データにおける周波数と、前記周波数の平均とを得て、前記データは、前記PVデバイスの履歴出力の時系列であり、前記データは、行列形式で次のように整列され、
回帰解析を前記データに適用して、回帰係数を得る、回帰解析適用工程と、
時間ステップにおける前記平均と、前の時間ステップにおける前記平均からの偏差とを加算することによって、前記時間ステップにおける前記PV出力を予測する工程であって、前記平均は、選択された周波数によって近似され、前記前の時間ステップの前記偏差は、前記回帰係数によって重み付けされる、予測工程と、
を含み、
前記方法の前記工程は、前記PVデバイスを運転する制御方策を生成するコントロールモジュールのプロセッサにおいて実行される、
太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測する方法。 - 太陽光発電(PV)デバイスの出力を予測し、前記PVデバイスを運転する制御方策を生成するコントローラであって、
前記コントローラは、
フーリエ解析をデータに適用する処理であって、前記データにおける周波数と、前記周波数の平均とを得て、前記データは、前記PVデバイスの履歴出力の時系列である、処理と、
回帰解析を前記データに適用して、回帰係数を得る、処理と、
時間ステップにおける前記平均と、前の時間ステップにおける前記平均からの偏差とを加算することによって、前記時間ステップにおける前記PV出力を予測する処理であって、前記平均は、選択された周波数によって近似され、前記前の時間ステップの前記偏差は、前記回帰係数によって重み付けされ、次の時間ステップtの予測される出力は、
を行うプロセッサを備えた
太陽光発電デバイスの出力を予測するコントローラ。
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US20130054662A1 (en) * | 2010-04-13 | 2013-02-28 | The Regents Of The University Of California | Methods of using generalized order differentiation and integration of input variables to forecast trends |
US9002774B2 (en) * | 2011-09-23 | 2015-04-07 | Aol Advertising Inc. | Systems and methods for generating a forecasting model and forecasting future values |
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