JP5604945B2 - Quality prediction apparatus, quality prediction method, computer program, and computer-readable recording medium - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a quality prediction device, a quality prediction method, a computer program, and a computer-readable recording medium in a manufacturing process, and more specifically, by changing operation conditions in a production line such as a steel process. In the manufacturing process that creates different types of products, a quality prediction model and quality prediction are used to create a quality prediction model from time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in the manufacturing order, and to perform quality prediction The present invention relates to a method, a computer program, and a computer-readable recording medium.

  In the manufacturing process of steel, semiconductors, etc., according to the order of the product from the customer, the operating conditions for manufacturing the product are determined from the required specifications for the customer's product, and the product is manufactured. In the middle of manufacturing, whether the product satisfies the required specifications is evaluated based on the operation results in the process (upper process) that has been passed so far and the scheduled operation conditions in the future pass process (lower process). In some cases, work for changing operation conditions in the lower process and work for prioritizing inspection before shipment may be performed to avoid outflow of defective products to customers. Therefore, it is very important to predict the quality of the product during the manufacturing process. For this reason, conventionally, an operation operator or a technical person in charge of a manufacturing process has performed an operation of estimating the quality of a product from operation conditions.

  As a general method of predicting quality (hereinafter referred to as “first method”), when manufacturing the same product, for example, as defined in the operation standard, the operation condition is made constant. Operation is performed. At this time, particularly when a product is manufactured under a severe environment such as a high temperature and a high load such as a steel process, the characteristics of equipment such as a mill constant of a rolling mill gradually change. For this reason, a situation in which the quality differs depending on the production timing even under exactly the same operating conditions. In this situation, the operation operator and the person in charge refer to the results of the quality of the product manufactured immediately before, and further consider the past experience and knowledge about the manufacturing process to improve the quality of the product currently being manufactured. We are working to predict.

  In addition, even under the same manufacturing conditions (that is, input conditions) as described above, the situation in which the quality (that is, output) changes at the manufacturing timing is not limited to the final quality, for example, in the hot rolling of a steel process. Control parameters such as the learning coefficient of the cooling control model in the hot rolling runout table for controlling the scraping temperature are also generated. For this reason, it is necessary to predict the suitability value with reference to the results of products manufactured just before.

  However, this first method has a problem that the prediction accuracy is greatly influenced by the knowledge and skill level of the operation operator and the person in charge. Furthermore, when many products are manufactured in a short time, there is a problem that the amount of information to be processed is large and high-speed processing is required, which cannot be handled by humans.

  Therefore, as a second method, Patent Document 1 proposes a method of making predictions with the aid of a computer using past quality data, instead of relying solely on human memory. The second method uses an exponential smoothing method that is widely used as a practical and simple method for predicting the quality of products currently being manufactured by analyzing accumulated time-series data. In the exponential smoothing method, it is assumed that the value of new data is affected by the past value, the strength of the effect is stronger as it is closer to the present, and weaker as it goes back in the past. And calculate the predicted value of the new data. The second method is a method of predicting quality by exponential smoothing method, wherein a smoothing constant is calculated from a theoretical optimal solution using N pieces of time series data, and is defined by a difference between a predicted value and an actual result. This is a technique that makes it possible to estimate the upper and lower limits of the predicted value based on the standard deviation of the prediction error.

Here, since the quality data of the manufacturing process generally includes data on a plurality of products, in order to obtain sufficient accuracy, the data is divided under appropriate conditions, and exponential smoothing is performed for each division. There is a need to do. However, the method of Patent Document 1 does not consider the data division at all, and when this method is applied to the quality prediction of the manufacturing process, there is a problem that the prediction accuracy is greatly deteriorated.

  As a third method, in Patent Document 2, the smoothing coefficient should be set separately in estimating the friction coefficient between the rolling roll and the material to be rolled by the exponential smoothing method for the setup calculation in hot rolling finish rolling. A method is disclosed in which a person sets rolling condition categories and performs exponential smoothing for each category. This third method can ensure relatively high accuracy and is often used in actual processes. However, since the category is determined based on the experience of the person in charge, it depends on the skill level of the person in charge. The prediction accuracy also depends on the person in charge. In addition, for humans, multiple types of rolling conditions, such as sheet thickness and target scraping temperature, are determined by focusing on one of them and mechanically combining the multiple rolling conditions to create a category. To do. For this reason, there is a problem that a segment in which almost no data exists is generated and accuracy is deteriorated. In addition, since the division is easily subdivided, there is a practical problem that a maintenance load becomes high when accuracy is deteriorated.

  On the other hand, Patent Document 3 discloses a method of learning an error of a mathematical formula model by a long-term learning control by a neural network and a short-term learning control by exponential smoothing in a control method for determining a set value of a rolling mill. In the method of Patent Document 3, a model error peculiar to a rolling material of the same specification or a rolling specification of the same specification is estimated by long-term learning control using a neural network, and a mathematical model calculation value is corrected, Model errors caused by changes in rolling conditions accompanying short-term changes such as temperature changes and wear are estimated by short-term learning control from the model error results of the nearest rolling material, and the model calculation values are corrected.

JP 2004-110300 A JP-A-9-29316 Japanese Patent No. 3223856

Keiyuki Sakamoto et al. “Information Statistics”, Kyoritsu Publishing Co., Ltd. (1983), 43 pages

  In the method of Patent Document 3, a model error peculiar to a rolled material of the same specification or a rolled material of the same specification is estimated by long-term learning control, and a model error caused by a short-term change in rolling state is calculated as a nearby model error. Although the model calculation value is corrected by short-term learning control based on the actual results, the model error ratio used in actual short-term learning control could not be corrected by long-term learning control, The model error peculiar to the rolling material of the same specification is included. For this reason, when manufacturing a rolled material having a specification different from that of the nearest rolled material, it is necessary to initialize the short-term learning coefficient in order to remove the adverse effect of the model error of the nearest rolled material. However, since the above-mentioned Patent Document 3 does not describe a method for initializing short-term learning when manufacturing a rolled material having a specification different from that of the nearest rolled material, a rolled material having a specification different from that of the nearest rolled material is not described. When manufacturing, model errors depending on the specifications of the nearest rolled material may adversely affect the next rolled material.

  Thus, in order to make short-term learning control function effectively, it is necessary to appropriately define the conditions of the rolled material that are determined to be the same specification or the same specification. However, it is not clear in Patent Document 3 how to determine the condition of the rolling material with respect to manufacturing conditions and operation conditions (product size, target temperature, etc.) that are originally continuous variables.

  Here, the expression “same lot” is used in the present specification as an expression corresponding to “rolled material determined to be the same specification or the same type of specification”. “Lot” generally refers to a production unit for producing the same type of product collectively, but in this specification, it is produced under similar manufacturing conditions even if they are not completely the same. In quality prediction, it refers to a product group that can be regarded as being produced under substantially the same manufacturing conditions and can use past manufacturing results for quality estimation.

  In general, the conditions for products that are judged to be the same lot (hereinafter referred to as the same lot material) are determined empirically from the distribution of past manufacturing conditions and operating conditions, model errors, etc. If the lot division set on the basis is not appropriate, a product manufactured under a manufacturing condition or operation condition of a close value may become another lot across the lot division. Furthermore, if all the discontinuous conditions are defined individually as lots as in product standards, the same lot material will hardly exist for those with a small number of objects, and short-term learning will not function.

  Further, if the conditions of the same lot are made stricter, the similarity of products in the lot becomes higher, and the short-term learning gain can be increased to improve the convergence of the short-term learning. However, the number of the same lot decreases, and the application rate of short-term learning decreases. Due to such a trade-off problem, conventionally, lot division is determined by trial and error.

  Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to use an exponential smoothing method based on time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in manufacturing order. In the quality prediction method, the same lot in the learning mechanism is appropriately determined, and the accuracy of prediction when the same lot material continues is increased, so that sufficient accuracy is achieved and the maintenance load is reduced. Another object of the present invention is to provide a new and improved quality prediction apparatus, quality prediction method, program, and computer-readable recording medium.

In order to solve the above problems, according to an aspect of the present invention, a quality prediction apparatus in a manufacturing process is provided. A quality predicting apparatus in such a manufacturing process includes a data extraction unit that extracts operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database that stores operation data and quality data related to a plurality of products, and extracted operation data. the area into which a parameter included in the operation data takes a value as a whole region, and the division pattern candidate creating unit that the division pattern candidates for dividing the entire area into a plurality of local regions to create multiple, for each division pattern candidates, each calculated from the predicted value and quality actual quality of products manufactured immediately before based quality prediction value to the exponential smoothing in the local area, quality prediction value in the entire region as a weighted linear sum of quality prediction values in each local area the activity function representing the weight in calculating the activity function calculating unit that calculates for each local region, the For split pattern candidate, in each local area, and a quality prediction value of products manufactured before and past quality data, current and quality prediction value calculated by the set exponential smoothing function based on exponential smoothing, Based on the activity function, a long-term learning prediction value that is a quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated , and a short-term learning coefficient that is a prediction value that represents a difference between the long-term learning prediction value and the quality data is calculated, and long-term learning is calculated. Minimum error division pattern selection unit that selects a division pattern that minimizes the prediction error, which is the difference between the quality prediction value and the quality data in the entire region calculated based on the prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient, and minimum error division pattern selection prediction error of the division pattern selected by parts, based on a result of comparison with a preset criterion value, whether convergence of the prediction error is sufficient And outputs a learning error evaluation unit constant for, the division pattern is determined converged by learning error evaluation section is to be sufficient, the quality prediction value in the entire area to be calculated based on long-term learning predicted value and short-term learning coefficient A quality prediction value output unit, and an exponential smoothing function, an exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit that calculates an exponential smoothing coefficient that determines the strength of the influence of the past quality prediction on the current quality prediction value in the exponential smoothing function. When the local region to which the current operation data belongs among the local regions is the same as the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series, the selection unit performs exponential smoothing. When the short-term learning coefficient is updated based on the local area to which the current operation data belongs in each local area is different from the local area to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data belongs in time series Is characterized in that the initial value is substituted into the short-term learning coefficient to be initialized .

  The minimum error division pattern selection unit includes a long-term learning prediction value calculation unit that calculates a long-term learning prediction value, a short-term learning coefficient based on the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit and past quality data. Based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient, a quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated, and a prediction error that is a difference between the quality prediction value and the quality data is calculated. And a model error evaluation unit.

  The minimum error division pattern selection unit is a case where the current operation data and the operation data located immediately before the operation data on the time series belong to different local regions, and the same local region as the current operation data The number of products processed between the product corresponding to the operation data belonging to and the product processed immediately before the product corresponding to the current operation data and the product corresponding to the current operation data is less than the predetermined value. In this case, instead of initializing the short-term learning coefficient, the short-term learning coefficient may be updated.

  The minimum error division pattern selection unit is the product serial number when the last short-term learning coefficient is updated in each local region among the short-term learning coefficient in each local region and the product serial number assigned to each product in the order of processing time. Is the case where the current operation data and the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series belong to different local areas, and the current operation data If the difference between the product serial number of the product corresponding to the data and the final product serial number is less than a predetermined value, the short-term learning coefficient may be updated.

  The learning error evaluation unit further includes a division exponent smoothing model determination unit that selects one division pattern from a plurality of division patterns determined to have sufficient convergence of the prediction error, and the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit includes a plurality of exponential smoothing units. Coefficients are set, division pattern candidates are created by the division pattern candidate creation unit for each exponential smoothing coefficient, and the prediction function converges sufficiently by the activity function calculation unit, minimum error division pattern selection unit, and learning error evaluation unit The division exponent smoothing model determination unit may select a division pattern having the smallest number of divisions among the division patterns determined for each exponential smoothing coefficient.

  The division pattern candidate creation unit divides a numerical division creation unit that divides an operation variable space that includes operation variables that are numerical information included in the operation data, and a group that includes code variables that include character code information included in the operation data. A division pattern candidate created by the numerical division creation unit and a division pattern candidate created by the code division creation unit can be used as a division pattern candidate for the entire region.

The activity function may be a function configured by combining a normal distribution function having a center at the center of gravity of the local region and a binary function calculated from code division information representing a result of dividing the code variable into groups. Good.

  The code division creation unit may divide a group of code variables using a search method.

  The division pattern candidate creation unit may collectively generate division pattern candidates composed of operation variables and code variables using an optimization method.

  When the manufacturing process is a steel process, the quality data can also be product surface defects, mechanical strength property values, shape flatness, product size, internal stress, or process values that affect these quality.

  When the manufacturing process is a hot rolling process of a thin steel sheet, which is a steel product, when the quality to be predicted by the quality prediction device is the scraping temperature at the outlet side of the hot-rolling runout table, the operating variables of the manufacturing process Is the amount of C, Si, Mn, B in the molten steel at the time when the material to be rolled has finished the refining process, the target plate width, target plate thickness, equivalent carbon content, finish rolling target on the finish rolling material At least one or more material codes may be selected as the temperature, the winding target temperature, the cooling water temperature, and the code variable.

Moreover, in order to solve the said subject, according to another viewpoint of this invention, the quality prediction method in a manufacturing process is provided. Such a quality prediction method includes a data extraction step for extracting operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database storing operation data and quality data for a plurality of products, and operation data for the extracted operation data. A region that takes the value of the variable included in the entire region as a whole region, a divided pattern candidate creation step for creating a plurality of divided pattern candidates for dividing the whole region into a plurality of local regions, and for each divided pattern candidate, in each local region Based on the exponential smoothing method, the quality prediction value is calculated from the quality prediction value and the quality actual value of the product manufactured immediately before, and the quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated as a weighted linear sum of the quality prediction values in each local region. the activity function representing the weight of the case, the activity function calculating step of calculating for each local region, each minute For pattern candidate, in each local area, and a quality prediction value of products manufactured before and past quality data, current and quality prediction value calculated by the set exponential smoothing function based on exponential smoothing, the active A long-term learning prediction value calculation step for calculating a long-term learning prediction value that is a quality prediction value in the entire region based on the degree function, and a short-term learning coefficient that is a prediction value representing a difference between the long-term learning prediction value and the quality data The shortest learning coefficient calculation step to be calculated, and the minimum error for selecting the division pattern that minimizes the prediction error, which is the difference between the quality prediction value and the quality data in the whole area calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient a division pattern selection step, and the prediction error of the division pattern selected based on a comparison result of a preset evaluation criterion value, the convergence of the prediction error Enough of whether convergence determination step of determining whether a, the division pattern is determined to converge by determining whether convergence of the prediction error is sufficient is sufficient, long learning predicted value and short-term learning An output step of outputting a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the coefficient, and in the short-term learning coefficient calculation step, the local region to which the current operation data belongs among the local regions in time series If it is the same as the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data belongs, the short-term learning coefficient is updated based on the exponential smoothing method, and among the local regions, the local region to which the current operation data belongs is When the operation data is different from the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data belongs , the initial value is substituted into the short-term learning coefficient to be initialized .

  Furthermore, in order to solve the above-described problems, according to another aspect of the present invention, a program for causing a computer to function as the above-described quality prediction apparatus is provided. Such a program is stored in a storage device included in the computer, and read and executed by a CPU included in the computer, thereby causing the computer to function as the quality prediction device. A computer-readable recording medium on which the program is recorded is also provided. The recording medium is, for example, a magnetic disk or an optical disk.

  As described above, according to the present invention, in the method of performing quality prediction by exponential smoothing from time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in the manufacturing order, the same lot in the learning mechanism is appropriately selected. The quality prediction device, quality prediction method, program and computer readable with sufficient accuracy and reduced maintenance load by increasing the accuracy of prediction when the same lot material is continuous A recording medium can be provided.

It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the quality prediction apparatus which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the minimum error division | segmentation pattern selection part which concerns on the embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the quality prediction process by the quality prediction apparatus concerning this embodiment. It is explanatory drawing which shows the production | generation process of the division pattern candidate by a division pattern candidate production part. It is explanatory drawing which shows typically the procedure which produces a division | segmentation pattern candidate in a two-dimensional operation variable space. It is explanatory drawing which shows typically the procedure which produces a division | segmentation pattern candidate in the two-dimensional operation variable space divided into three. It is a flowchart which shows the exponential smoothing calculation process by the minimum error division | segmentation pattern selection part performed by step S108 of FIG. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of a quality prediction apparatus. It is explanatory drawing which shows the production | generation process of the division pattern candidate by a division pattern candidate production part. It is a flowchart which shows the production | generation process of the division | segmentation pattern candidate of a code variable. It is explanatory drawing which shows the code replacement process in the preparation process of the division | segmentation pattern candidate of a code variable. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of a quality prediction apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the update process of the local area | region estimated value and short-term learning coefficient by the quality prediction apparatus concerning the embodiment. 10 is a flowchart illustrating exponential smoothing calculation processing by a minimum error division pattern selection unit performed in step S108 of FIG. 3 in the second embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structural example of the computer system which can function as a quality prediction apparatus. It is a schematic explanatory drawing which shows the outline of the hot rolling process of a steel plate. The graph which shows the relationship between the division number at the time of using the quality prediction apparatus which concerns on 1st Embodiment, and a prediction error is shown. The graph which shows the relationship between the division number at the time of using the quality prediction apparatus which concerns on 2nd Embodiment, and a prediction error is shown.

  Exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In addition, in this specification and drawing, about the component which has the substantially same function structure, duplication description is abbreviate | omitted by attaching | subjecting the same code | symbol.

[Outline of quality prediction equipment]
The quality prediction apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention is a method in which quality prediction is performed by exponential smoothing using time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in the manufacturing order. In this case, short-term learning is performed in order to improve prediction accuracy. As described above, it is necessary to appropriately define the same lot in order to make short-term learning function effectively. In the embodiment of the present invention described below, the same lot is defined by determination based on the local region to which the operation data belongs. While the same lot material based on the affiliation local region continues, short-term learning by exponential smoothing is performed to improve the prediction accuracy. When the product lots are not the same, the short-term learning coefficient is initialized, and then the quality prediction is started.

[Quality prediction by exponential smoothing]
First, quality prediction using a general exponential smoothing method will be described. As described in paragraph 0006, the exponential smoothing method is a method of predicting a current state by analyzing accumulated time series data. The actual value of the time-series quality data (hereinafter, quality actual value) is represented by y (i), and the predicted value of the quality data (hereinafter, quality predicted value) is represented by y ^ (i). Here, i is a subscript indicating the order of the time-series data, and corresponds to a production serial number. In the exponential smoothing method, the quality predicted value y ^ (i) of the product corresponding to the current manufacturing serial number i is replaced with the quality predicted value y ^ (i-1) and the quality actual value y (i- From 1), it calculates | requires using Formula (1).

・・・数式（１）

... Formula (1)

Here, α is a constant satisfying 0 <α <1, and is called an exponential smoothing coefficient or a learning gain. An initial value y ₀ is given to the quality prediction value y ^ (1) for the product manufactured first, and an average value of quality actual values from the past manufacturing history is used as the initial value y ₀ .

[Short-term learning in exponential smoothing]
Next, short-term learning in a general exponential smoothing method will be described. The purpose of this method is to eliminate the average error in a large frame and ensure long-term learning to ensure overall followability, and to improve followability to the nearest material when the same lot material continues. The quality prediction value calculated from the long-term learning predicted value by long-term learning and the short-term learning coefficient by short-term learning is converged by combining two exponential smoothing methods of short-term learning. The quality predicted value y ^ (i) is expressed by the following mathematical formula (2) or (3). Formula (2) is a formula for calculating a quality prediction value when performing multiplicative short-term learning, and Formula (3) is a formula for calculating a quality prediction value when performing additive-type short-term learning.

・・・数式（２）

・・・数式（３）

... Formula (2)

... Formula (3)

Here, y ^ _L (i) is the current long-term learning predicted value, and y ^ _S (i) is the current short-term learning coefficient.

The long-term learning predicted value ＾ _L (i) by long-term learning is obtained by the following mathematical formula (4). Here, y ^ _L (i-1) and y (i-1) are the long-term learning predicted value and quality actual value of the product manufactured immediately before, and α _L is the exponential smoothing coefficient in long-term learning. This is called gain.

・・・数式（４）

... Formula (4)

On the other hand, the short-term learning of the exponential smoothing method is performed for the purpose of improving the followability to the nearest material when the same lot continues. If the learning progress is poor only by long-term learning, there is a risk that product defects will occur continuously when the same lot material continues. For this reason, it is possible to prevent the occurrence of such product defects by performing short-term learning to improve learning progress and to follow the latest material. The next-material short-term learning coefficient _S (i) is expressed by the following mathematical formula (5). The short-term learning coefficient represents a predicted value of a difference between the long-term learning predicted value and the quality data. Note that α _S is an exponential smoothing coefficient in short-term learning and is referred to as short-term learning gain.

・・・数式（５）

... Formula (5)

Here, y _S (i−1) in Expression (5) is the actual result of the long-term learning error calculated by the following Expression (6) or (7), and is called the actual short-term learning coefficient. Formula (6) is an error record in the case of multiplicative short-term learning, and is expressed as a ratio between a quality record value and a long-term learning predicted value. Equation (7) is the actual error in the case of additive short-term learning, and is represented by the difference between the quality actual value and the long-term learning predicted value.

・・・数式（６）

・・・数式（７）

... Formula (6)

... Formula (7)

If the current product is not the same lot as the product manufactured immediately before, the short-term learning coefficient ＾ _S (i) is set to the initial value y _S0 of the short-term learning coefficient without using Equation (5). The initial value y _S0 of the short-term learning coefficient is 1 for multiplicative short-term learning and 0 for additive short-term learning.

  In the following, a quality prediction device and a quality prediction method using the quality prediction device for improving the quality prediction accuracy when the same lot material continues using short-term learning in the exponential smoothing method will be described in detail.

<1. First Embodiment>
First, a configuration of a quality prediction apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention and a quality prediction method using the same will be described. In the present embodiment, two quality prediction apparatuses (quality prediction apparatuses 100 and 200) having different division pattern determination methods for determining the belonging local region of the product used for determining the same lot, and the quality functioning online. The prediction device (quality prediction device 300) will be described.

(1) Quality prediction device that considers only operation variables in operation data in pattern division [Configuration of quality prediction device]
First, based on FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, the structure of the quality prediction apparatus 100 which concerns on embodiment of this invention is demonstrated. FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the quality prediction apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 according to the present embodiment.

  The quality prediction apparatus 100 is an apparatus that predicts the quality of an object for which quality prediction is performed. As the quality predicted by the quality prediction apparatus 100, for example, in the case of a steel process, mechanical strength characteristic values such as the number of surface defects and internal defects, tensile strength, yield stress, and elongation rate of various products such as thin plates and thick plates. There are various quality indicators of the final product directly requested by customers, such as shape flatness such as wave height, product size such as plate thickness, plate width and plate length, and internal stress. In addition, process values that affect these final qualities are also predicted qualities.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the quality prediction apparatus 100 includes a data extraction unit 110, a division pattern candidate creation unit 120, an activity function calculation unit 130, a minimum error division pattern selection unit 140, an exponential smoothing coefficient. The calculation unit 150, the learning error evaluation unit 160, the division index smoothing model determination unit 170, the quality prediction value output unit 180, and the database 190 are included.

  The data extraction unit 110 obtains, from the database 190, a plurality of operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from the database 190, based on a selection condition relating to a quality prediction target input from the outside, such as code information indicating a product type. Extract. Here, the operation data includes an operation variable whose possible value is a numerical value and a code variable whose possible value is character code information. In this embodiment, a division pattern is created using only operation variables in the operation data. For example, in the steel process, the operational variables include the amounts of various elements of molten steel measured in the refining process, the amount of molten steel surface fluctuation and casting speed in the continuous casting process, and the rolling load and scraping temperature in the hot rolling process. It is. The data extraction unit 110 outputs the data extracted from the database 190 to the division pattern candidate creation unit 120.

The division pattern candidate creation unit 120 performs a process of creating a plurality of division pattern candidates to be divided into a plurality of M local regions from the whole region, using operation variables whose possible values are numerical values as a whole region. The division pattern candidate creation unit 120 outputs, to the activity function calculation unit 130, division coordinate information of a division pattern obtained by dividing the operation variable space into a plurality of local regions for the plurality of division pattern candidates created. The divided pattern candidate creation unit 120 sets the long-term learning gain α _L among the exponential smoothing coefficients used when calculating the predicted value for the local area of each divided pattern after the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 sets the divided pattern candidate. May be created.

  The activity function calculation unit 130 calculates an activity function for all the division pattern candidates created by the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 based on the division coordinate information. The activity function is used to represent a relational expression representing the relationship between the operation data and the quality data.

  The minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 calculates a quality prediction value in each local region (hereinafter referred to as a local region prediction value) for the division pattern candidate, and the entire region based on each local region prediction value and the activity function. In addition to calculating the long-term learning predicted value in, the short-term learning coefficient is calculated based on the long-term learning predicted value and the past quality data. Based on this, a prediction error is calculated, and a division pattern with the smallest error is selected. The minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 according to the present embodiment uses short-term learning in the exponential smoothing method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048 as a constant model for calculating the current quality prediction value from the past quality data and the past quality prediction value. Is used to calculate the quality prediction value. In the present embodiment, it is possible to select an appropriately divided pattern by calculating a quality prediction value using an exponential smoothing method for each divided pattern. At this time, the accuracy of quality prediction in the same lot material is improved by performing short-term learning in the exponential smoothing method.

  As shown in FIG. 2, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 according to the present embodiment includes a local region prediction value storage unit 141, a long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142, a short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143, and a short-term learning coefficient. A calculation unit 144, a model error evaluation unit 145, and a division pattern selection unit 146 are provided.

  The local region prediction value storage unit 141 stores the initial value of the long-term learning prediction value and the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142. The past long-term learning prediction value stored in the local region prediction value storage unit 141 is read by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 and used to calculate the long-term learning prediction value of the next material.

The long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 calculates a prediction value of each local region, and calculates a long-term learning prediction value using the calculated prediction value of each local region. The predicted value of each local area is calculated by the mathematical formula (14) described later. At this time, an exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ) for weighting past data, which is used when the long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 142 calculates a predicted value of each local region, is calculated by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150. Calculated.

For example, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 sets a plurality of values from values in the range of 0 to 1 that can be taken by the exponential smoothing coefficient, performs exponential smoothing simulation for the set values, and determines the most predictive error from the simulation result. By adopting a small value as the exponential smoothing coefficient, the exponential smoothing coefficient used as the long-term learning gain α _L can be determined. Alternatively, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 can determine an exponential smoothing coefficient used as the long-term learning gain α _L using, for example, a theoretical method described in Patent Document 1. The minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 uses the exponential smoothing coefficient calculated by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 as the long-term learning gain α _L , so that the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 uses each local region prediction value and a mathematical expression described later. (15) The long-term learning predicted value is calculated from Then, the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 outputs the calculated long-term learning prediction value to the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 and the model error evaluation unit 145.

  The short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 stores the initial value of the short-term learning coefficient and the short-term learning coefficient calculated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144. The past short-term learning coefficient stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 is read by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 and used to calculate the short-term learning coefficient of the next material.

  The short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 calculates a short-term learning coefficient for each local region. The short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 calculates a short-term learning coefficient based on the exponential smoothing short-term learning described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. In addition, the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 updates the short-term learning coefficient and records it in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 in order to calculate the short-term learning coefficient of the next material. Then, the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 outputs the calculated short-term learning coefficient to the model error evaluation unit 145.

  The model error evaluation unit 145 uses the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 and the short-term learning coefficient calculated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 to predict the quality prediction value (hereinafter referred to as the quality prediction value in the entire region). And a quality prediction value). The quality prediction value is the quality prediction value of the exponential smoothing method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. Then, the model error evaluation unit 145 calculates a prediction error evaluation value of the division pattern using the calculated quality prediction value, and outputs it to the division pattern selection unit 146.

  The division pattern selection unit 146 selects a division pattern with the smallest prediction error evaluation value based on the prediction error evaluation value calculated by the model error evaluation unit 145. Then, the division pattern selection unit 146 outputs the prediction error evaluation value of the selected division pattern to the learning error evaluation unit 160.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the learning error evaluation unit 160 compares the prediction error evaluation value of the division pattern selected by the division pattern selection unit 146 of the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 with a preset evaluation reference value, It is determined whether or not a relational expression having sufficient accuracy has been constructed. In this case, when it is determined that the learning error has been converged, the learning error evaluation unit 160 extracts the coefficient of the activity function that is information for expressing the division pattern obtained for the currently set exponential smoothing coefficient, The divided exponential smoothing model determination unit 170 outputs the result. On the other hand, when it is determined that the convergence is insufficient, the learning error evaluation unit 160 further divides the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 with respect to the division pattern candidate creation unit 120. An instruction to create a new division pattern candidate is issued.

The divided exponential smoothing model determining unit 170 selects and determines a model of the exponential smoothing coefficient having the smallest number of divisions from the division patterns obtained for the exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ). That is, the division exponent smoothing model determination unit 170 selects a division pattern represented by a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy with the smallest number of divisions. The division exponent smoothing model determination unit 170 extracts the coefficient of the activity function, which is information for expressing the determined division pattern, and outputs the coefficient to the quality prediction value output unit 180.

  The quality prediction value output unit 180 includes information on the division pattern input from the learning error evaluation unit 160 or the division exponent smoothing model determination unit 170, separately input operation data, and the latest quality known at the time of prediction. Based on the data, a quality prediction value is calculated using a relational expression between operation data and quality data and short-term learning in exponential smoothing. The quality predicted value output unit 180 outputs the quality predicted value to the outside for use as guidance to the operator or as an input signal to the process control system.

  The database 190 includes past operation data and quality data in the manufacturing process, code information indicating the type of product, manufacturing time in each manufacturing process, order information such as a destination, a product number for specifying the product, and the like. Is stored in association with each other. These pieces of information are input and recorded in the database 190 from outside at a predetermined timing. The information stored in the database 190 is extracted by the database extraction unit 110 and used for quality prediction as described in paragraph 0053.

[Quality prediction processing by the quality prediction device]
Next, based on FIGS. 3-7, the quality prediction process by the quality prediction apparatus 100 concerning this embodiment is demonstrated in detail. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the quality prediction processing by the quality prediction apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment. FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a process of creating a division pattern candidate by the division pattern candidate creation unit 120. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram schematically showing a procedure for creating candidate division patterns in a two-dimensional operation variable space. FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram schematically showing a procedure for creating a division pattern candidate in a three-dimensional two-dimensional operation variable space. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the exponential smoothing calculation process by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 performed in step S108 of FIG.

  Now, let us assume that a quality index representing the degree of quality by a numerical value is represented by a variable y. Further, it is assumed that an operation variable whose value can take a numerical value among the operation conditions when the product is manufactured is represented by a column vector composed of the following mathematical formula (8). Note that t in Expression (8) represents transposition of a matrix. Further, in the prediction data used for quality prediction in the present embodiment, information for identifying the order of manufacture, for example, a manufacturing serial number and a manufacturing time, are attached to each quality data.

・・・数式（８）

... Formula (8)

In this embodiment, the whole area | region which consists of the operation variable of operation data is divided | segmented into a some local area | region, and the process which calculates a quality predicted value (local area | region estimated value) in each local area | region is performed. Then, the following formula (9), which is the sum of products of the local region predicted value y ^ _j and the activity function Φ _j representing the ratio of the predicted value of the local region to the predicted value in the entire region, Represents the relational expression y between the operation data and the quality data. Here, Σ represents the sum of terms, and M represents the number of local regions.

・・・数式（９）

... Formula (9)

  In the present embodiment, the local region prediction value is represented as a constant model using an exponential smoothing method. When such a constant model is used, for example, compared to the case where the predicted value is expressed by a linear polynomial, the convergence until obtaining a desired division pattern with sufficient accuracy is inferior, but the desired model is surely obtained. Can be earned. In addition, when a constant model is used, conventionally, it has been necessary to perform many area divisions until a desired division pattern is obtained. However, by using the quality prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment, the number of divisions can be reduced. A desired model can be acquired. The activity function is set in advance so as to satisfy the normal condition of Expression (10) in which the sum of the function values is 1 at an arbitrary position in the entire space.

・・・数式（１０）

... Formula (10)

  In the quality prediction process performed by the quality prediction apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, first, operation data and quality data relating to a target for which quality prediction is performed are extracted from the database 190 by the data extraction unit 110 (step S100). The data extraction unit 110 extracts a plurality of operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from the database 190 based on a selection condition related to a target for which quality prediction is performed. The data extraction unit 110 outputs the extracted operation data and quality data to the division pattern candidate creation unit 120.

Next, an exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ) is set by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 (step S102). For example, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 can provide a plurality of values such as 0.1, 0.2,..., 0.9, for example, for exponential smoothing coefficients that can take values in the range of 0 to 1. Set. Then, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 extracts one from the set plurality of values and outputs it to the division pattern candidate creation unit 120.

When the exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ) is set, the processes in steps S104 to S112 are repeated for all the set values. First, the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 creates a division pattern candidate by dividing the whole area into a plurality of local areas, with the area taken as the value of the operation variable of the operation data as the whole area (step S104). That is, first, as shown in FIG. 4, the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 performs a process of dividing the space into two local regions (M = 2) for the two-dimensional operation variable space that is not divided. Here, in the division of the operation variable space, a division point is set on an axis parallel to each operation variable. That is, as shown in FIG. 5, the two-dimensional operation variable space includes two operation variables u1 and u2. Therefore, a division parallel to the operation variable u1 axis and a division parallel to the operation variable u2 axis are performed on the area 1-1. Thus, the area 1-1 is divided into two areas 2-1 and 2-2. The division pattern candidate creation unit 120 changes the setting of the division points and creates a plurality of division pattern candidates as shown in FIG.

  In addition, when the operation variable space has already been divided into several local regions, the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 uses the following mathematical expression (11) that is a weighted error evaluation function based on the activity function. The error is calculated, and the local region having the largest error is divided into two. As an example, FIG. 6 shows a procedure for dividing an operation variable space that has already been divided into three into four (M = 4). As shown in FIG. 6, if the local region with the largest error is the region 3-2, the dividing point is set so that the region 3-2 is divided into two by an axis parallel to the operation variable u1 or u2 axis. . At this time, the remaining areas 3-1 and 3-3 are not divided.

・・・数式（１１）

... Formula (11)

In the equation (11), the operation data u (i), the quality data y (i), and the local region predicted value y ^ _j (i) i are attached to each data in order to identify the order of manufacture. Actually, the production serial number, production time, etc. are applicable. Further, in order to clearly indicate that the activity function Φ _j is a function of the operation variable u (i), it is expressed as Φ _j (u (i)).

  In FIG. 4, when the operation variable space is divided into two, if the local region having the largest error is the region 2-1, the region 2-1 is divided into two by the axis parallel to the operation variable u1 or u2 axis. A division point is set. As described above, for the operation variable, a plurality of new division pattern candidates are generated from the current division pattern.

  The value of the division candidate point necessary for creating the operation variable division pattern candidate is, for example, extracting data of one operation variable, dividing this data into a plurality of groups, and operating variables serving as boundaries between the groups. There is a method in which the value of is calculated, calculated for all the operation variables, and used for the division candidate points. Specifically, the operation variable data is divided into a plurality of groups using, for example, a clustering method, and the minimum value and the maximum value of the operation variable values included in each group are calculated. Then, among the adjacent groups, the average value of the maximum value of the group having the smaller value of the operation variable and the minimum value of the group having the larger value of the operation variable is set as the value of the dividing point. Alternatively, if the operation operator or the person in charge can set the range of groups that can be regarded as the same operation level for the data value of the operation variable, the division candidate points set manually may be used.

When division pattern candidates are created in step S104, activity functions are calculated for all division pattern candidates (step S106). As a specific activity function, in the present embodiment, a p-dimensional normal distribution function μ _j shown in the following formula (12) is substituted into the following formula (13) as a function for smoothly connecting the boundaries of adjacent local regions. The normal membership function obtained as above is defined as the activity function. Here, c ^j _k represents the centroid of the local region, and σ ^j _k represents the standard deviation of the normal distribution function, and these centroid and the standard deviation of the normal distribution function are coefficients in the normal membership function. The regular membership function of Equation (13) has a value in the range of 0 to 1 depending on the value of the operation variable.

・・・数式（１２）

・・・数式（１３）

... Formula (12)

... Formula (13)

  Then, the smallest error division pattern selection unit 140 selects a division pattern with the smallest prediction error from the division pattern candidates (step S108). First, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 extracts one division pattern candidate from the plurality of division pattern candidates created by the division pattern candidate creation unit 120, and uses the division coordinate information of the division pattern to obtain individual data. Based on the value of the operation data, it is divided into M groups. Next, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 calculates each local region predicted value for each of the divided M groups using the exponential smoothing method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048.

The exponential smoothing calculation process by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 of the present embodiment is as shown in FIG. Setting the initial value (i = 1) to the data number i (step S1080), first, long-term learning predictive value calculating unit 142 updates the predicted value _{y ^} j (i) of each local region (step S1081). The predicted value y ^ _j (i) of each local region is updated by an exponential smoothing function expressed by the following mathematical formula (14). Here, j is a subscript specifying each local region. In the following, “←” in the formula represents a substitution process to a variable. The initial value of the predicted value ＾ _j (i) of each local region can be an average value of y or the like based on past results. Α _L is an exponential smoothing coefficient in long-term learning described in paragraph 0041, and is called a long-term learning gain.

・・・数式（１４）

... Formula (14)

Next, the long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 142 calculates a long-term learning predicted value ＾ _L (i) (step S1082). The long-term learning predicted value ＾ _L (i) is a predicted value by the long-term learning of the exponential smoothing method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048, and is calculated for each product by the following formula (15).

・・・数式（１５）

... Formula (15)

Further, the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S (i) is calculated by the short-term learning coefficient computing unit 144 (step S1083). The short-term learning coefficient ＾ _S (i) is a learning coefficient by short-term learning of the exponential smoothing method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048, and when the operation variable space is divided into local regions according to the currently used division pattern candidates, Depending on whether or not the operation variables u (i) and u (i-1) exist in the same local region, the following equation (16) is set. In order to calculate the short-term learning coefficient y _S (i) while sequentially updating the data number i (i = 1,..., N), the short-term learning coefficient y ^ corresponding to the latest data number i is calculated. One latest value of _S (i) should be stored. In this implementation method, this value is stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 as the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S. Y _S0 is the initial value of the short-term learning coefficient described in paragraph 0047.

・・・数式（１６）

... Formula (16)

Thereafter, the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 updates the short-term learning coefficient for the next product (step S1084). Examples of the short-term learning method include multiplicative short-term learning and additive short-term learning as described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. The actual short-term learning coefficient y _S (i) is calculated by the following mathematical formula (17) in the case of multiplicative short-term learning and by the following mathematical formula (18) in the case of additive short-term learning. Then, using the calculated actual short-term learning coefficient, the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S is updated from the following mathematical formula (19). The updated short-term learning coefficient is stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143. Α _S is an exponential smoothing coefficient in short-term learning described in paragraph 0043, and is called a short-term learning gain.

・・・数式（１７）

・・・数式（１８）

・・・数式（１９）

... Formula (17)

... Formula (18)

... Formula (19)

Next, the model error evaluation unit 145 calculates a quality prediction value (step S1085). As described in paragraph 0063, the model error evaluation unit 145 includes the long-term learning predicted value y ^ _L (i) calculated by the long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 142 and the short-term learning coefficient calculated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144. The overall quality prediction value y ^ (i) is calculated using y ^ _S (i). As described in paragraph 0039, the quality prediction value can be calculated by the following mathematical formula (20) in the case of multiplicative short-term learning and by the following mathematical formula (21) in the case of additive short-term learning.

・・・数式（２０）

・・・数式（２１）

... Formula (20)

... Formula (21)

  When the processes of steps S1081 to S1085 are finished, the model error evaluation unit 145 increments the value of the data number i by 1 (step S1086). Then, it is determined whether or not the processing of steps S1081 to S1085 has been completed for all data (i = 1,..., N) (step S1087). That is, the model error evaluation unit 145 compares the data number i with the total number of data N. If the data number i is a value equal to or less than the total number of data N, the model error evaluation unit 145 returns to step S1081 and repeats the process. On the other hand, if the data number i is a value greater than the total number of data N, a prediction error evaluation value of the divided pattern is calculated (step S1088). The prediction error evaluation value I of the divided pattern is calculated by the following mathematical formula (22).

・・・数式（２２）

... Formula (22)

  After that, the division pattern selection unit 146 determines a division pattern that minimizes the prediction error evaluation value I based on the prediction error evaluation value I calculated from Equation (22) for each division pattern. That is, the division pattern selection unit 146 compares the prediction error calculated for each division pattern, and selects the relational expression of the division pattern with the smallest error. As a result, the relational expression of the division pattern with the smallest error is selected from the plurality of division pattern candidates created by the division pattern candidate creation unit 120.

  In the processing shown in FIG. 7, the long-term learning calculation and the short-term learning calculation (steps S1081 to S1085) are performed for each line, but the long-term learning calculation does not affect the long-term learning calculation. For this reason, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 can perform short-term learning calculations (steps S1083 to S1085) after performing long-term learning calculations (steps S1081 and S1082) for all data first.

  Next, the learning error evaluation unit 160 compares the error of the minimum error relational expression selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 with a preset evaluation reference value to determine whether learning is sufficient. It is determined whether or not the error has converged (step S110). As a method for determining convergence, for example, a method for comparing the error of the relational expression with a convergence determination factor (evaluation reference value), and a comparison of the change amount of the relational expression error with respect to the increment of local region division with the convergence determination factor (evaluation reference value) And an index that takes into account the number of divisions and errors, for example, an information amount index of Akaike described in Non-Patent Document 1, and an index that adds not only the learning error but also the number of local regions to the evaluation. Thus, a method of stopping the division when the index increases can be used.

  The learning error evaluation unit 160 evaluates the error using such a convergence determination method, and if the error is larger than the evaluation reference value, a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy has not yet been constructed. The error convergence is determined to be insufficient. In this case, the learning error evaluation unit 160 instructs the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 to increase the division number M of the division pattern by one and perform the process of step S104 (step S112). Then, the processes in steps S104 to S112 are repeated until it is determined in step S110 that a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy is constructed.

On the other hand, if the error is equal to or less than the evaluation reference value in step S110, the learning error evaluation unit 160 determines that a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy is constructed, and the exponential smoothing coefficient set in step S102. It is determined whether or not the processing in steps S104 to S112 has been performed for all of the above (step S114). If it is determined in step S114 that the above processing has not been completed for all exponential smoothing coefficients, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150 extracts one exponential smoothing coefficient that has not yet been processed. It is set as the next long-term learning gain alpha _L (step S116). Thereafter, the processes in steps S104 to S116 are repeated.

If it is determined in step S114 that the above processing has been completed for all exponential smoothing coefficients (long-term learning gain α _L ), the divided exponential smoothing model determination unit 170 determines the minimum division number model with the smallest number of divisions. Select (step S118). Through the processes in steps S104 to S116, the division pattern is determined for each of the plurality of exponential smoothing coefficients set by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculating unit 150. The divided exponential smoothing model determining unit 170 selects the model of the exponential smoothing function having the smallest number of divisions among the plurality of selected division patterns. When there are a plurality of minimum division number models, these prediction errors are compared, and the model with the smallest error may be selected. As a result, it is possible to provide a model that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy with a small number of divisions.

  Thereafter, the division index smoothing model determination unit 170 extracts the coefficient of the activity function, which is information for expressing the obtained relational expression, and outputs the coefficient to the quality prediction value output unit 180. The quality prediction value output unit 180 uses the information on the input relational expression and the operation data separately input, and uses the y obtained in Equation (15) as a long-term learning prediction value, and further by exponential smoothing Applying short-term learning, a quality prediction value is calculated from Equation (20) or Equation (21) and output to the outside (step S120). The quality prediction value calculated by the quality prediction value output unit 180 can be used, for example, as guidance to the quality prediction operator or as an input signal to the process control system.

  Heretofore, the quality prediction apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment and the quality prediction method using the same have been described. In such a quality prediction apparatus 100, in the method of performing quality prediction by exponential smoothing from time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in the manufacturing order, quality prediction is performed when the same lot material is continuous. Implement short-term learning to improve accuracy. Thereby, the followability to the nearest material can be improved, and the quality defect when the same lot material continues can be prevented.

(2) Regarding Quality Prediction Device Considering Operation Variables and Code Variables among Operation Data in Pattern Division Next, the quality prediction device 200 and the quality prediction method using the quality prediction device 200 will be described based on FIGS. FIG. 8 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the quality prediction apparatus 200. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a process of creating a division pattern candidate by the division pattern candidate creation unit 220. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a process for creating code variable division pattern candidates. FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a code replacement process in a process for creating a division pattern candidate for a code variable.

  The quality prediction apparatus 200 is different from the quality prediction using the quality prediction apparatus 100 in that the operation data used for quality prediction uses a code variable that is character code information in addition to an operation variable composed of numerical information. This makes it possible to create a model that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy with a smaller number of divisions. In the same manner as the quality prediction apparatus 100, the quality prediction apparatus 200 is a short-term method for improving the accuracy of quality prediction when the same lot material is continuous in the method of performing quality prediction using time-series quality data by the exponential smoothing method. Conduct learning. Therefore, like the quality prediction apparatus 100, it is possible to improve the followability to the nearest material, and to prevent quality defects when the same lot material continues.

[Configuration of quality prediction device]
As shown in FIG. 8, the quality prediction apparatus 200 includes a data extraction unit 210, a division pattern candidate creation unit 220, an activity function calculation unit 230, a minimum error division pattern selection unit 240, and an exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250. And a learning error evaluation unit 260, a split exponent smoothing model determination unit 270, a quality prediction value output unit 280, and a database 290. Here, the data extraction unit 210, the activity function calculation unit 230, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250, the learning error evaluation unit 260, the division exponent smoothing model determination unit 270, and the quality prediction value output unit 280. 1 and the data extraction unit 110, the activity function calculation unit 130, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 150, the learning error evaluation unit 160, and the division exponent smoothing model determination unit 170 in FIG. It functions in substantially the same manner as the quality prediction value output unit 180 and the database 190. In the quality prediction apparatus 200, operation variables and code variables are used as operation data. Therefore, the division pattern candidate creation processing by the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 is different from the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 of the above embodiment.

  The data extraction unit 210 obtains, from the database 290, a plurality of operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from the database 290 based on an externally input selection condition regarding a quality prediction target such as code information indicating a product type. Extract. As described in paragraph 0053, the operation data includes operation variables that are numerical information and code variables that are character code information. In the present embodiment, not only the operation variables of the operation data but also the code variables are targets of the division pattern. The code variable is, for example, character code information such as a product symbol and a raw material symbol. The data extraction unit 210 outputs the data extracted from the database 290 to the division pattern candidate creation unit 220.

  The division pattern candidate creation unit 220 divides the entire area composed of both operation variables whose possible values are numerical values and code variables whose possible values are character code information into a plurality of M local areas. A process for creating a plurality of files is performed. That is, the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 divides the entire area where the operation variables and code variables included in the operation data input from the data extraction unit 210 are mixed to create a plurality of division pattern candidates.

  The division pattern candidate creation unit 220 according to the present embodiment includes a numerical division creation unit 222 that divides only operation variables in the entire area as a division target, and a code division creation that performs division using only code variables in the whole area as division targets. Part 224. The division pattern candidate creation unit 220 divides a plurality of division pattern candidates generated by dividing the operation variable constituting the whole area by the numerical division creation unit 222 and the code variable constituting the whole area by the code division creation unit 224. Together with the plurality of divided pattern candidates generated in this way, it is determined as a divided pattern candidate for the entire area. Then, the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 outputs the created plurality of division pattern candidates to the activity function calculation unit 230.

  The activity function calculation unit 230 calculates the activity function for all the division pattern candidates created by the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 based on the division coordinate information of the operation variable and the grouping result of the code variable. . The activity function is used to represent a relational expression representing the relationship between the operation data and the quality data.

The minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 calculates each local region prediction value for the division pattern candidate, calculates a long-term learning prediction value in the entire region based on each local region prediction value and the activity function, and also performs long-term learning prediction. The short-term learning coefficient is calculated based on the value and the past quality data, the prediction error based on the quality prediction value calculated based on the long-term learning predicted value and the short-term learning coefficient is calculated, and the division pattern with the smallest error is further calculated. select. The minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 is configured as shown in FIG. When the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 calculates the predicted value of each local region, the long-term learning gain α _{L that} is an exponential smoothing coefficient for weighting past data is calculated by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250. . The exponential smoothing coefficient can be calculated using, for example, the method described in paragraph 0060. The minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 applies the exponential smoothing coefficient set by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250 to each local region, and calculates the long-term learning predicted value using the local region predicted value calculated by the exponential smoothing method. Further, after calculating the short-term learning coefficient, the prediction error evaluation value of the divided pattern is calculated based on these values. Then, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 selects the division pattern having the smallest prediction error evaluation value among the calculated prediction error evaluation values as the minimum error division pattern.

  The learning error evaluation unit 260 compares the prediction error evaluation value of the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 with a preset evaluation reference value, and a relational expression having sufficient accuracy is constructed. Determine whether or not. In this case, when it is determined that the learning error has been converged, the learning error evaluation unit 260 extracts the coefficient of the activity function that is information for expressing the division pattern obtained for the currently set exponential smoothing coefficient, The divided exponential smoothing model determination unit 270 outputs the result. On the other hand, when it is determined that the convergence is insufficient, the learning error evaluation unit 260 further divides the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 with respect to the division pattern candidate creation unit 220. An instruction to create a new division pattern candidate is issued.

The divided exponential smoothing model determination unit 270 selects and determines the exponential smoothing coefficient model having the smallest number of divisions from the division patterns obtained for the exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ). The division index smoothing model determination unit 270 extracts the coefficient of the activity function, which is information for expressing the determined division pattern, and outputs the coefficient to the quality prediction value output unit 280.

  The quality prediction value output unit 280 includes information on the division pattern input from the learning error evaluation unit 260 or the division exponent smoothing model determination unit 270, operation data that is input separately, and the latest quality that is known at the time of prediction. Based on the data, a quality prediction value is calculated using a relational expression between operation data and quality data and short-term learning in exponential smoothing. The quality prediction value output unit 280 outputs the quality prediction value to the outside for use as guidance to the operator or as an input signal to the process control system.

The database 290 includes past operation data and quality data in the manufacturing process, code information indicating the type of product, order information such as manufacturing time and destination in each manufacturing process, product number for specifying the product, and the like. Is stored in association with each other. Such information is input and recorded in the database 290 from the outside at a predetermined timing. Information stored in the database 2 90 is extracted by the database extraction unit 210, used for quality prediction.

[Quality prediction processing by the quality prediction device]
Next, quality prediction processing by the quality prediction apparatus 200 will be described in detail. The quality prediction process by the quality prediction apparatus 200 is also performed according to the flowchart shown in FIG. For this reason, in the following, detailed description is omitted for portions that perform the same processing as the quality prediction apparatus 100.

  In the quality prediction process performed by the quality prediction apparatus 200, first, operation data and quality data relating to a target for which quality prediction is performed are extracted from the database 290 by the data extraction unit 210 (step S100). The data extraction unit 210 extracts a plurality of operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from the database 290. The data extraction unit 210 outputs the extracted operation data and quality data to the division pattern candidate creation unit 220.

Next, the exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ) is set by the exponential smoothing coefficient calculator 250 (step S102). For example, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250 has a plurality of types of values such as 0.1, 0.2,..., 0.9 for exponential smoothing coefficients that can take values in the range of 0 to 1, for example. Set. Then, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250 extracts one from the set plurality of values and outputs it to the division pattern candidate creation unit 220.

When the exponential smoothing coefficient (long-term learning gain α _L ) is set, the processes in steps S104 to S112 are repeated for all the set values. First, the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 creates a division pattern candidate by dividing the entire area into a plurality of local areas, with the area that the operation variable of the operation data takes as the value and the area that the code variable takes as the value as the entire area. (Step S104). In this example, the processing of step S104 is performed only on the code variable and the numerical value division creating unit 222 that divides based on only the operation variable space in order to create a division pattern candidate from the entire region in which the operation variable and the code variable are mixed. Using the code division creating unit 224 that divides the code based on this, the division pattern candidates are created separately for the operation variable and the code variable. Then, the divided pattern candidates created by both are combined to be a divided pattern candidate for the entire area.

The operation variable space division processing by the numerical value division creation unit 222 can be performed in the same manner as the processing by the division pattern candidate creation unit 120 in FIG. That is, as shown in FIG. 10, the numerical value division creating unit 222 performs processing for sequentially dividing the local region with the largest error, and generates a plurality of new division pattern candidates from the current division pattern. However, the weighted error evaluation function by the activity function for calculating the error of the local region is calculated by the following equation (23) instead of the above equation (11). Equation (23) specifies that the activity function Φ _j is a function of the operation variable u and the code variable v.

・・・数式（２３）

... Formula (23)

In Equation (23), i of the operation variable u (i), the code variable v (i), the quality data y (i), and the local area predicted value y ^ _j (i) are manufactured for each data. This is a data number assigned to identify the order, and actually corresponds to a manufacturing serial number or manufacturing time.

  On the other hand, the code division creation unit 224 creates code variable division pattern candidates by dividing the code variable into two groups. Here, since the possible values of the code variables are generally several hundreds, it is not realistic from the viewpoint of calculation time to evaluate all combinations that divide these into two groups. Therefore, in the present embodiment, for example, by applying a search method proposed in the field of mathematical optimization, an initial combination of division is assumed from a huge number of combinations, and then a combination is obtained so as to obtain a highly accurate relational expression. A method of calculating the division into the optimum group by searching while correcting is used. Specifically, the code division can be calculated using a local search method which is a kind of search method.

  Here, a code variable dividing method by the local search method will be described with reference to FIGS. First, the code division creation unit 224 generates a random number to initially divide the code variable, and creates a relational expression (hereinafter also referred to as “quality prediction model”) representing the relationship between the operation data and the quality data (step “step”). S1041). For example, numbers 1 to D are assigned to all types D of values that the code variable v can take. A random number generator that generates a random number between 0 and 1 is executed i = 1 to D times, and the i-th code value is determined by whether or not the value of the i-th random number exceeds a threshold value (for example, 0.5). To which group data V belongs to group V or a group of code variables other than the values of code variables belonging to V. For example, as shown in FIG. 7, when there are eight possible values of the code variable v, these data are divided so as to belong to one of the two groups V and V˜.

Next, the code division creation unit 224 creates a quality prediction model for the data divided into two groups by the same procedure as the process in the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 from the activity function calculation unit 230, A prediction error is calculated (step S1042). Steps S 1041 and S 1042 are performed as initial processing in the code variable division processing.

When the prediction error is calculated for the quality prediction model after the initial division, the code division creation unit 224 executes the random number generator that can generate the values 1 to D once, and the code corresponding to the obtained random value DR The value data is replaced with a group different from the current one (step S1043). For example, in the example shown in FIG. 11, it is assumed that the data of the code value corresponding to the random value DR obtained by the random number generator is “2”. The data is currently belonging to the group V ~, by the processing in step S10 4 3, is moved to a different Group V currently belongs group. In this way, the code division creation unit 224 recreates the quality prediction model by exchanging data.

  Thereafter, the code division creation unit 224 creates a quality prediction model from the replaced data, and calculates a prediction error (step S1044). The process of step S1044 can be performed similarly to the process of step S1042.

Next, the code division creation unit 224 compares the prediction error before the replacement with the prediction error after the replacement, and performs accuracy evaluation (step S1045). Then, the code division creation unit 224, is smaller than the prediction error of the previous replacement prediction error after replacement to confirm the replacement performed in step S1043, the processing proceeds to Step S10 4 7. On the other hand, when the prediction error after replacement is equal to or greater than the prediction error before replacement, the two groups are returned to the state before replacement (step S1046). Then, it returns to step S1043 and repeats a process.

  In step S1045, when the group replacement in step S1043 is confirmed, the code division creation unit 224 determines whether or not the iterative stop condition is satisfied (step S1047). As the iterative stop condition, for example, a condition such as when the upper limit value of the number of iterations has been reached, or when the upper limit value of the number of executions of replacement that does not improve the prediction error can be set. The code division creation unit 224 stops the iterative process when the iterative stop condition is met, and ends the code variable division process. That is, the two groups determined at this time are code variable division pattern candidates. On the other hand, if it is determined that the repeated stop condition is not met, the process returns to step S1043 to repeat the process.

  The code variable division processing has been described above. If there are a plurality (q) of code variables, the above process is performed for each of the code variables l = 1 to q, and division pattern candidates for q types of code variables may be created.

  The method of creating the division pattern candidate by the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 is not limited to the above-described method. For example, an optimization method such as a genetic algorithm is used for dividing a pattern candidate composed of an operation variable and a code variable. A method of generating a batch using, is also within the scope of the present invention. Specifically, a plurality of values of operation variables and code variables that are division points in division pattern candidates are stored in an array, crossover processing for exchanging a part of the arrays, and a partial value of the array A mutation process to be changed is performed, a quality prediction model is created from the activity function calculation unit 230 in the same procedure as the process in the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240, and a prediction error is calculated. Then, similarly to the above method, the size of the prediction error can be evaluated to determine the division pattern candidate.

  Returning to the description of the quality prediction process of FIG. 3 performed by the quality prediction apparatus 200, when division pattern candidates are created in step S104, the activity function is calculated for all division pattern candidates (step S106). As specific activity functions, for example, a p-dimensional normal distribution function shown in Expression (24) and a binary function expressed by Expression (25) calculated from the code division information are expressed in Expression (26). The membership function obtained by substitution can be used as the activity function.

・・・数式（２４）

・・・数式（２５）

・・・数式（２６）

... Formula (24)

... Formula (25)

... Formula (26)

Here, c ^j _k is the barycentric point of the local region, σ ^j _k is the standard deviation of the normal distribution function, v is the code variable, V is a set of values of the code variables belonging to the group V obtained by the code division creation means. is there. As shown in Equation (26), it can be seen that the activity function according to the present embodiment is a function of an operation variable and a code variable. This membership function is 0 for any operation data if the code variable value of the operation data does not belong to the set V, and 0 to 1 depending on the value of the operation variable if it belongs. It has a range of values.

  Then, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 selects a division pattern with the smallest prediction error from the division pattern candidates (step S108). The minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 applies the exponential smoothing coefficient set in step S102 to each local region, calculates a long-term learning predicted value using the local region predicted value calculated by the exponential smoothing method, After calculating the short-term learning coefficient, the prediction error evaluation value of the division pattern is calculated based on these values. Then, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 selects a division pattern having the smallest prediction error evaluation value among the calculated prediction error evaluation values as the minimum error division pattern.

  The processing by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 is performed according to the flowchart shown in FIG. 7, similarly to the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 of the quality prediction apparatus 100. Note that the processing by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 is the same as the processing described in paragraphs 0087 to 0100, and thus description thereof is omitted here. When the quality prediction is performed by the exponential smoothing method, the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 can improve the followability to the nearest material by performing short-term learning when the same lot material continues. The minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 performs the process shown in FIG. 7 so that the relational expression having the smallest error defined by Equation (22) is obtained from the plurality of division pattern candidates created by the division pattern candidate creation unit 220. Select a division pattern.

  Next, the learning error evaluation unit 260 compares the prediction error evaluation value of the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 with a preset evaluation reference value to determine whether learning is sufficient. It is determined whether or not the error has converged (step S110). When the error is larger than the evaluation reference value, the learning error evaluation unit 260 determines that the relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy has not been constructed yet and the convergence of the error is insufficient. In this case, the learning error evaluation unit 260 instructs the division pattern candidate creation unit 220 to increase the division number M of the division pattern by one and perform the process of step S104 (step S112). Then, the processes in steps S104 to S112 are repeated until it is determined in step S110 that a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy is constructed.

On the other hand, if the error is equal to or smaller than the evaluation reference value in step S110, the learning error evaluation unit 260 determines that a relational expression that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy is constructed, and the exponential smoothing coefficient set in step S102. It is determined whether or not the processing in steps S104 to S112 has been performed for all of the above (step S114). If it is determined in step S114 that the above processing has not been completed for all exponential smoothing coefficients, the exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 250 extracts one exponential smoothing coefficient that has not been processed yet. , set as the next long-term learning gain alpha _L (step S116). Thereafter, the processes in steps S104 to S116 are repeated.

If it is determined in step S114 that the above processing has been completed for all exponential smoothing coefficients (long-term learning gain α _L ), the divided exponential smoothing model determination unit 270 selects the minimum division number model with the smallest number of divisions. Select (step S118). Thereafter, the division index smoothing model 270 extracts the coefficient of the activity function, which is information for expressing the obtained relational expression, and outputs the coefficient to the quality prediction value output unit 280. The quality prediction value output unit 280 uses the information on the input relational expression and the operation data input separately, and uses y obtained in Expression (15) as a long-term learning prediction value, and further by exponential smoothing Applying short-term learning, a quality prediction value is calculated from Equation (20) or Equation (21) and output to the outside (step S120). In addition, the process of step S110-S118 mentioned above can be performed similarly to the said quality prediction apparatus 100. FIG.

  In the above, the quality prediction apparatus 200 and the quality prediction method by this were demonstrated. Similar to the quality prediction apparatus 100, the quality prediction apparatus 200 is a method of performing quality prediction by exponential smoothing from time-series quality data in which quality information of products manufactured in the past are arranged in the production order. In the case of continuous, short-term learning is performed to improve the accuracy of quality prediction. Thereby, the followability to the nearest material can be improved, and the quality defect when the same lot material continues can be prevented.

  Further, the quality prediction apparatus 200 creates division pattern candidates from the entire area, using the operation variable that is numerical information of the operation data used for quality prediction and the code variable that is character code information as the entire area. Then, based on the activity function of each division pattern and each local region predicted value of each division pattern calculated using the exponential smoothing method, a division pattern that minimizes the quality prediction error is selected. As a result, it is possible to prevent the occurrence of a local region in which almost no data exists, and automatically search for and obtain a model that can explain the data with sufficient accuracy with a smaller number of divisions than in the case of the above embodiment. be able to. In addition, since the local region is not subdivided more than necessary, the maintenance load when the accuracy deteriorates can be reduced.

(3) On-line quality prediction device In the case of configuring as an online quality prediction device using the quality prediction method by the quality prediction devices 100 and 200 according to the present embodiment, the search for the division pattern is performed in terms of processing time. difficult. Therefore, quality prediction is performed using a division pattern and an activity function obtained offline in advance. Hereinafter, based on FIG. 12 and FIG. 13, the structure of the online quality prediction apparatus 300 which concerns on this embodiment, and the process by this are demonstrated. FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the quality prediction apparatus 300. FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the local area prediction value and short-term learning coefficient update processing by the quality prediction apparatus 300 according to the present embodiment. In FIG. 12, only processing units necessary for updating the local region predicted value and the short-term learning coefficient (that is, processing units constituting the update processing unit) are illustrated. Therefore, the quality prediction apparatus 300 according to the present embodiment can also include other processing units described in FIGS. 1 and 8.

[Configuration of quality prediction device]
As shown in FIG. 12, the quality prediction apparatus 300 includes an operation data input unit 310, an activity function calculation unit 320, an activity function storage unit 325, a quality data input unit 330, and a local region predicted value update unit 340. A local region prediction value storage unit 345, a short-term learning coefficient update unit 350, a short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355, a long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360, a short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370, and a quality prediction value calculation unit 380. With.

  The operation data input unit 310 receives product operation data collected from the manufacturing process 5 connected to the quality prediction apparatus 300. Specifically, as the operation data input unit 310, for example, a keyboard, an OCR for reading a data sheet, and measurement signals from sensors installed in the factory are sequentially collected and stored, and via a LAN or the like at a preset timing. A computer that captures data, a computer that sequentially captures manufacturing process information from another computer via a LAN, or the like can be used. The operation data input by the operation data input unit 310 includes operation variables, or operation variables and code variables. The operation data is subjected to arithmetic processing by each processing unit described below, so that an operation equivalent to the process leading to the quality prediction value calculation in the minimum error division pattern selection units 140 and 240 is executed, and the quality prediction value is calculated. The The operation data input from the operation data input unit 310 is output to the activity function calculation unit 320.

  The activity function calculation unit 320 uses the operation data input from the operation data input unit 310 and the information stored in the activity function storage unit 325 to calculate the value of the activity function. The activity function is expressed by Equation (13) when the operation data consists only of operation variables, and by Equation (26) when the operation data consists of operation variables and code variables. Then, the activity function calculation unit 320 outputs the calculated activity function value to the local region predicted value update unit 340, the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350, the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360, and the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370. To do.

  The activity function storage unit 325 requires the center of gravity of the local area, the standard deviation of the normal distribution function, and the code division creation unit 224 of FIG. 8 that are necessary to calculate the activity function in Equation (13) or Equation (26). Information such as a set of code variable values belonging to the group V obtained in the above is stored. That is, the activity function storage unit 325 stores information related to the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 of the quality prediction apparatus 100 or the minimum error division pattern selection unit 240 of the quality prediction apparatus 200. Yes.

  The quality data input unit 330 inputs quality data extracted from the manufacturing process when the quality of the product is measured. For example, in the case of a steel process, quality data includes the number of surface defects and internal defects by an automatic defect inspection device, mechanical strength measurement values in a sample test process, wave height measurement values by a shape meter, and plate thickness / width measurement meters. Information such as dimensional information, internal stress, and the amount of elemental components, temperature, and size in an intermediate process step that affects final quality. The quality data input unit 330 may be a computer that inputs these quality data, for example, a keyboard, an OCR that reads a data sheet, and a computer that sequentially collects measurement signals from sensors and transmits them via a LAN or the like. The quality data input unit 330 outputs the input quality data to the local region predicted value update unit 340 and the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350.

  The local region predicted value update unit 340 uses the quality data input from the quality data input unit 330 and the activity function value calculated by the activity function calculation unit 320 in the local region predicted value storage unit 345. Update the stored local region prediction value.

  The local region predicted value storage unit 345 stores the local region predicted value. The local region predicted value stored in the local region predicted value storage unit 345 is updated by the local region predicted value update unit 340. The local region predicted value stored in the local region predicted value storage unit 345 is read by the long-term learned predicted value calculation unit 360 and used to calculate the long-term learned predicted value of the next material.

  The short-term learning coefficient update unit 350 is stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355 using the quality data input from the quality data input unit 330 and the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360. Update the short-term learning coefficient.

  The short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355 stores the short-term learning coefficient. The short-term learning coefficient stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355 is a value calculated by the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350 and is used by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370 to calculate the short-term learning coefficient of the next material. .

  The long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360 calculates a long-term learning prediction value using the activity function calculated by the activity function calculation unit 320 and the local region prediction value stored in the local region prediction value storage unit 345. The long-term learning predicted value is calculated by the method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. The long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360 outputs the calculated long-term learning prediction value to the quality prediction value calculation unit 380 and the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350.

  The short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370 calculates a short-term learning coefficient using the activity function calculated by the activity function calculation unit 320 and the short-term learning coefficient stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355. The short-term learning coefficient is calculated by the method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. The short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370 outputs the calculated short-term learning coefficient to the quality prediction value calculation unit 380.

  The quality prediction value calculation unit 380 calculates a quality prediction value using the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 360 and the short-term learning coefficient calculated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 370. The quality prediction value is calculated by the method described in paragraphs 0035 to 0048. The quality predicted value calculation unit 380 displays the calculated quality predicted value as, for example, guidance information or outputs it to the control system of the manufacturing process for use in quality control. By displaying the predicted quality value, it is possible for the operation operator to determine the operating conditions for obtaining the desired quality, and the inspector conducts the priority inspection of the product with the concern of quality defect, thereby Defective product shipment to can be prevented. When used for quality control, the control system performs a process for calculating a target value of an operation variable serving as an operation end based on the quality prediction value so that the quality falls within a desired range, and reflects it in the operation of the manufacturing process 5. By doing so, the occurrence of poor quality can be suppressed.

[Local area prediction value and short-term learning coefficient update processing by quality prediction device]
Next, the local area prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient update process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. First, product operation data u (i) collected from the manufacturing process 5 is input to the operation data input unit 310 of the quality prediction apparatus 300 (step S301). For example, it is assumed that the first operation data related to the first product is input to the operation data input unit 310. The operation data input unit 310 outputs the input first operation data to the activity function calculation unit 320.

The activity function calculation unit 320 to which the first operation data is input from the operation data input unit 310 is based on the input first operation data and information stored in the activity function storage unit 325. The function value Φ _j (i) is calculated (step S302). The value Φ _j (i) of the activity function is the function Φ _j (u (i)) of u (i) when the operation data consists only of operation variables, and the operation data consists of the operation variables and code variables. Is a function Φ _j (u (i), v (i)) of u (i) and v (i). Here, both are collectively expressed as Φ _j (i).

When the value Φ _j (i) of the activity function is calculated, the long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 360 calculates a long-term learning predicted value y ^ _L (i) (step S303). The long-term learning predicted value y ^ _L (i) is calculated by using the activity function value Φ _j (i) and the local area predicted value y ^ _j (i) stored in the local area predicted value storage unit 345. It can be calculated by (15). Further, the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350 calculates a short-term learning coefficient (step S304). The short-term learning coefficient can be calculated from the above formula (16) using the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 350. Note that the processing in step S303 and the processing in S304 can be performed in parallel.

  When the long-term learning predicted value and the short-term learning coefficient are calculated, the quality predicted value calculation unit 380 calculates the quality predicted value y ^ (i) (step S305). The quality predicted value y ^ (i) can be calculated using the above formula (20) in the case of multiplicative short-term learning and the above formula (21) in the case of additive short-term learning.

Thereafter, operation is performed using the quality predicted value y ^ (i) calculated by the quality predicted value calculation unit 380, and when the quality data y (i) is input to the quality data input unit 330 (step S311), local operation is performed. The region prediction value update unit 340 updates the local region prediction value stored in the local region prediction value storage unit 345 using the quality data y (i) and the activity function value Φ _j (i). (Step S312). The update of the local region prediction value is performed by the following mathematical formula (27).

・・・数式（２７）

... Formula (27)

In addition, the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350 calculates the actual short-term learning coefficient y _S (i) using the quality data y (i) and the long-term learning predicted value y _L (i), and then the actual short-term learning coefficient y _S. Using (i), the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 350 is updated (step S313). The short-term learning coefficient y ^ _S can be updated by the above formulas (17) to (19). Note that the process of step S313 can be performed in parallel with the process of step S312.

Above, by the processing of step S30 1 ～S313, the output of the quality prediction value of the first product has been described processing for updating the local region predicted value and short-term learning coefficient. Subsequently, when the second operation data and the second quality data relating to the second product are input, the quality prediction apparatus 300 performs the same process. When the second operation data is input from the manufacturing process 5 to the operation data input unit 310 (step S30 1 ), the operation data input unit 310 outputs the second operation data to the activity function calculation unit 320. The activity function calculation unit 320 calculates an activity function using the input second operation data and the information stored in the activity function storage unit 325 (step S302). The activity function calculated by the activity function calculating unit 320 is output to the long-term learning predicted value calculating unit 360 and the short-term learning coefficient calculating unit 370, and the long-term learning predicted value and the short-term learning coefficient are calculated (step S303, S304). Then, the quality prediction value calculation unit 380 calculates the quality prediction value (step S305) and outputs it to an external manufacturing process 5 or an output device that notifies the operator.

  On the other hand, when the second quality data related to the second product is input to the quality data input unit 330 (step S311), the local region predicted value update unit 340 and the short-term learning coefficient update unit 350 cause the local region predicted value and The short-term learning coefficient is updated (steps S312 and S313). Thus, by repeating the process of FIG. 13, the quality predicted value in the manufacturing process 5 can be accurately evaluated. Here, the first quality data related to the first product is not necessarily input before the quality data of the second product is predicted. For example, there may be a point in time when the quality data of the hundredth product is predicted long after, so the update of the local relational expression is the latest quality data obtained at the time of calculating the quality prediction value. It is good to update based on the quality prediction value and the operation data.

  The configuration of the quality prediction apparatus (reference numerals 100, 200, and 300) according to the present embodiment and the quality prediction process using the same have been described above. In the quality prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment, the same lot of products is defined based on the belonging local area, and products having the same belonging local area are handled as the same lot. In such a method for defining the same lot, one variable for storing a short-term learning coefficient is prepared, and exponential smoothing learning is performed while the same lot continues. Initialize a variable that stores. Thereby, since quality prediction can be performed by simple calculation, calculation time can be shortened. In particular, when it is used as an online quality prediction apparatus (reference numeral 300), it is advantageous in that a large capacity is not required for a storage area necessary for holding data, and calculation time can be shortened.

<2. Second Embodiment>
(1) In the case of a quality prediction device that considers only operation variables in operation data in pattern division, and a quality prediction device that takes operation variables and code variables out of operation data in pattern division Next, based on FIG. A quality prediction method using the quality prediction apparatus according to the second embodiment according to the present embodiment will be described. The quality prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment can have the same configuration as the quality prediction apparatuses 100 and 200 according to the first embodiment. And the quality prediction process of this embodiment is performed along the flowchart shown in FIG. 3 using the quality prediction apparatuses 100 and 200 according to the first embodiment. That is, also in this embodiment, the same lot of products is defined based on the belonging local area, and products having the same belonging local area are treated as the same lot. And in the process of selecting the minimum error division pattern, if the number of local regions is stored as many variables for storing short-term learning coefficients, exponential smoothing learning is performed while the same lot continues, In, a variable that stores the short-term learning coefficient is initialized.

  Furthermore, in this embodiment, even if the continuation of products in the same lot is interrupted, if there are less than a predetermined number of products that are not in the same lot material, short-term learning is continued beyond that. In this case, as many variables as the number of the local areas are prepared for storing the final manufactured product serial numbers for each local area (the manufacturing serial number of the last created lot). Then, the manufacturing serial number of the next product to be manufactured (that is, the product corresponding to the current operation data) is compared with the final manufacturing serial number of the local region to which the product belongs, and if the difference is equal to or less than a predetermined value Exponential smoothing learning is continued, and when a predetermined value is exceeded, a short-term learning coefficient is initialized. The final manufactured product serial number for each local area is stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 together with the short-term learning coefficient for each local area, and is updated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144. That is, this embodiment is different from the method shown in FIG. 7 in the processing performed by the minimum error division pattern selection units 140 and 240 according to the first embodiment, that is, the processing in step S108 in FIG.

  Hereinafter, the processing of the minimum error division pattern selection units 140 and 240, which is the difference from the first embodiment, will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing exponential smoothing calculation processing by the minimum error division pattern selection units 140 and 240 performed in step S108 of FIG. 3 in the present embodiment. This process can be applied in common to both processes (1) and (2) of the first embodiment. Therefore, in the following, processing when the quality prediction apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment is used will be described, but the same applies when the quality prediction apparatus 200 is used.

[Quality prediction method]
When the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 selects a division pattern with the smallest prediction error from the division pattern candidates in step S108 of FIG. 3, the exponential smoothing calculation processing by the minimum error division pattern selection unit 140 is as shown in FIG. become. First, M variables y ^ _Sj (j = 1,..., M) stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 for storing short-term learning coefficients for each local area, and the final product sequence for each local area. M variables n _j for storing the numbers are initialized (step S2080). That is, the variable _{y ^ Sj} and _{n j} is set as following equation (28). Here, y _S0 is the initial value of the short-term learning coefficient described in paragraph 0047.

・・・数式（２８）

... Formula (28)

  Then, an initial value (i = 1) is set for the data number i (step S2081), and each local region predicted value is updated (step S2082). That is, the processing of the following mathematical formula (29) is performed. In the following, “←” in the formula represents a substitution process to a variable. The initial value may be an average value of y based on past results.

・・・数式（２９）

... Formula (29)

  Next, the long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 142 calculates a long-term learning predicted value (step S2083). The long-term learning predicted value is calculated for each product by the following mathematical formula (30).

・・・数式（３０）

... Formula (30)

Further, the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144 calculates a short-term learning coefficient ＾ _S (i) (step S2084). The short-term learning coefficient is set as in the following formula (31) depending on whether or not i−n _j is within the same lot reference number. Here, j is the local region number to which the operation data u (i) belongs, and y ^ _Sj and n _j are the short-term learning coefficient of the local region j stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 143 and the local region j. This is the final product serial number.

・・・数式（３１）

... Formula (31)

Thereafter, short-term learning coefficient calculating section 144 updates the latest sequence number _{n j} of short-term learning coefficient _{y ^ Sj} and the local area j of the local area j for the next product (step S2085). As the short-term learning method, the actual short-term learning coefficient y _S (i) is calculated by the following equation (32) when using multiplicative short-term learning and by the following equation (33) when using additive short-term learning. Then, using the calculated actual short-term learning coefficient, the short-term learning coefficient y ^ _Sj of the local region j is updated from the following formula (34) according to whether or not i−n _j is within the same lot reference number. To do. Further, the data number i is set to the latest serial number n _j of the local region j as shown in the following formula (35).

・・・数式（３２）

・・・数式（３３）

・・・数式（３４）

・・・数式（３５）

... Formula (32)

... Formula (33)

... Formula (34)

... Formula (35)

Then, a quality prediction value is calculated by the model error evaluation unit 145 (step S2086). The quality prediction value is calculated using the long-term learning prediction value ｙ _L (i) calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit 142 and the short-term learning coefficient ｙ _S (i) calculated by the short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 144. In the case of multiplicative short-term learning, it can be calculated by the following mathematical formula (36), and in the case of additive short-term learning, it can be calculated by the following mathematical formula (37).

・・・数式（３６）

・・・数式（３７）

... Formula (36)

... Formula (37)

  When the processing of steps S2082 to S2086 is completed, the value of data number i is incremented by 1 (step S2087). Then, it is determined whether or not the processing of steps S2082 to S2086 has been completed for all data (i = 1,..., N) (step S2088). That is, the data number i is compared with the total number of data N. If the data number i is equal to or less than the total number of data N, the process returns to step S2082 and the process is repeated. On the other hand, if the data number i is a value greater than the total number of data N, a prediction error evaluation value I of the divided pattern is calculated (step S2089). The prediction error evaluation value I of the division pattern can be calculated by the following mathematical formula (38).

・・・数式（３８）

... Formula (38)

  In the process shown in FIG. 14, the long-term learning calculation and the short-term learning calculation (steps S2082 to S2086) are performed for each line, but the long-term learning calculation does not affect the long-term learning calculation. For this reason, it is also possible to perform short-term learning calculations (steps S2084 to S2086) after performing long-term learning calculations (steps S2082 and S2083) for all data first.

(2) Case of Online Quality Prediction Device The processing based on FIG. 14 of this embodiment can also be applied to the online quality prediction device 300 of the first embodiment. In this case, the quality prediction apparatus can be configured in the same manner as the configuration shown in FIG. 12, and the quality prediction processing by this can be performed in substantially the same manner as in FIG. The difference from the quality prediction process performed by the quality prediction apparatus 300 according to the first embodiment is the process related to short-term learning in exponential smoothing learning in steps S304 and S313 in FIG.

That is, the variables stored in the short-term learning coefficient storage unit 355 are M variables (y ^ _Sj ) for storing the short-term learning coefficient for each local region and M pieces of variables for storing the final product serial number for each local region. Variable (n _j ). These variables are updated by the short-term learning coefficient updating unit 350 and used for calculating the short-term learning coefficient of the next material by the short-term learning coefficient calculating unit 370. Further, the short-term learning coefficient calculated in step S304 in FIG. 13 is calculated by the above mathematical formula (31) instead of the above mathematical formula (16). Further, the short-term learning coefficient calculated in step 313 is calculated by the above formula (34) instead of the above formula (19). In step S313, the short-term learning coefficient updating unit 350 calculates the actual short-term learning coefficient y _S (i) using the quality data y (i) and the long-term learning predicted value y _L (i), and then the actual short-term learning coefficient. And the local area number j to which u (i) belongs are used to update the short-term learning coefficient ＾ _Sj and the latest serial number n _j of the local area j.

  As described above, the process illustrated in FIG. 14 of the present embodiment can be applied to the quality prediction process of the online quality prediction apparatus 300 illustrated in FIGS. 12 and 13.

  The configuration of the quality prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment and the quality prediction process using the same have been described above. In the quality prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment, the same lot of products is defined based on the belonging local area, and products having the same belonging local area are handled as the same lot. In such a definition method for the same lot, M variables for storing a short-term learning coefficient for each local region and a final product serial number for each local region are prepared, and quality prediction is performed according to the method described in paragraphs 0168 to 0188. I do. Thereby, although it becomes a slightly more complicated form than 1st Embodiment, since quality prediction can be performed by comparatively simple calculation, calculation time can be shortened. In particular, when it is used as an online quality prediction apparatus (reference numeral 300), it is advantageous in that a large capacity is not required for a storage area necessary for holding data, and calculation time can be shortened. Furthermore, in this embodiment, if the number of products that are not the same lot material is less than a predetermined number, short-term learning is continued beyond that. Thereby, even when compared with the first embodiment, it is possible to appropriately define lot separation and to make short-term learning function effectively.

<3. Hardware configuration diagram>
The quality prediction apparatus 100, 200, 300 in the manufacturing process according to the embodiment of the present invention can be realized by a computer. FIG. 15 shows a configuration example of a computer system 400 that can function as a quality prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. The computer system 400 includes a CPU 401, a ROM 402, a RAM 403, a keyboard controller (KBC) 405, a CRT controller (CRTC) 406, a disk controller (DKC) 407, and a network interface controller (NIC) 408. They are connected to each other via 404.

  The CPU 401 executes software stored in the ROM 402 or the HD 411 or software supplied from the FD 412 and comprehensively controls each component connected to the system bus 404. That is, the CPU 401 reads out and executes a processing program according to a predetermined processing sequence from the ROM 402, the HD 411, or the FD 412, and performs control for realizing the functions of the quality prediction apparatuses 100, 200, and 300 in the present embodiment. I do.

  The RAM 403 functions as a main memory or work area for the CPU 401. The KBC 405 controls instruction input from the KB 409, a pointing device (not shown), or the like. The CRTC 406 controls the display of the CRT 410 that is a display unit. The DKC 407 controls access to the HD 411 and the FD 412 that store a boot program, various applications, an editing file, a user file, a network management program, a predetermined processing program in the present embodiment, and the like. The NIC 408 exchanges data bidirectionally with devices or systems on the LAN 420.

  In addition, the program of the software which described the process for implement | achieving the function of the process of each step of the quality prediction apparatus which is embodiment of this invention and the quality prediction apparatus of this invention was supplied, and was stored in the computer What is implemented by operating various devices according to the program is also included in the scope of the present invention.

  In this case, the software program itself realizes the processing functions of the quality prediction apparatuses 100, 200, and 300 according to the embodiment of the present invention, and the program itself is included in the scope of the present invention. As a transmission medium for the program code, a communication medium such as a computer network system that transmits the program as an electric signal can be used.

  Furthermore, means for supplying the program to the computer, for example, a storage medium storing the program is also included in the scope of the present invention. As a storage medium for storing the program code, for example, a flexible disk, a hard disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-ROM, a CD-R, a magnetic tape, a nonvolatile memory card, a ROM, or the like can be used.

  Below, for the hot rolling process of thin steel sheets, which are steel products, the steel sheet temperature in winding is the quality, and the operation variable includes the amount of C in the molten steel at the time when the material to be rolled has finished the refining process, Si amount, Mn amount, B amount, target plate width, target plate thickness, equivalent carbon amount of rolled material, finish rolling target temperature, winding target temperature, cooling water temperature, and quality using material code as code variable An example in which prediction is performed will be described.

  FIG. 16 is a schematic explanatory diagram showing an outline of a hot rolling process of a thin steel plate. A base material of the material 10 to be rolled, called a slab, is extracted from a heating furnace and then rolled into a bar shape having a thickness of 30 to 60 mm by a roughing mill 510. Next, the material to be rolled 10 is continuously rolled by a finishing mill 520 configured by arranging a plurality of rolling mills in series, and thereafter wound by a winder 530 in a coil shape.

  Immediately before the winding machine 530, a non-contact type winding thermometer 560 using a radiation thermometer is installed, and the winding thermometer 560 has an important effect on material properties such as mechanical property values of the thin steel plate. The steel sheet temperature at the time of winding, which is a management index, is measured. In order to control the steel plate temperature within a predetermined range, a cooling facility for spraying water on the steel plate is provided on the runout table 550 from the finish rolling mill 520 to the winder 530.

  In the hot rolling process, a prediction model for estimating the steel sheet winding temperature is created by using the target temperature at each stage, such as the steel sheet component and size, the finish rolling mill 520 delivery side, and just before the winding machine. Further, according to the actual temperature measured by the thermometer 540 installed on the exit side of the finishing mill 520, the cooling water amount density in which the coiling temperature falls within a predetermined range is calculated using this prediction model, and the setting value of the water amount density is obtained. The operation to change is performed.

  Conventionally, the cooling phenomenon when water is sprayed on the steel plate on the run-out table 550 is estimated by a physical model based on the heat transfer equation, and a correction coefficient for correcting the calculation result by this physical model is calculated by an exponential smoothing method. I was doing what I wanted. At this time, since the number of divided meshes for improving the correction accuracy reaches 4000 divisions, there is a mesh (local region) to which almost no data is input, and there is a problem that the accuracy of the quality prediction value is poor in such a mesh. .

  Therefore, the quality prediction apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention is applied to configure a quality prediction apparatus that uses the correction coefficient for correcting the calculation result based on the physical model as the quality index y. Here, data for about 10,000 coils was used. As an evaluation index, a prediction error is defined by a difference between an accurate correction coefficient value obtained by comparison with actual temperature and a correction coefficient obtained by prediction, and this standard deviation is used as an index.

FIG. 17 shows a graph showing the relationship between the number of divisions and the prediction error when the quality prediction apparatus 200 according to the first embodiment is used. A case where the long-term learning gain α _L is changed to 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 without using short-term learning (only long-term learning) and a case where short-term learning is used for each are plotted. For the case of using the short-term learning, for each value of long-term learning gain alpha _L, the short-term learning gain alpha _S is varied in the range of 0.1 to 0.5, with alpha _S smaller the most predictive error ing. Further, the prediction error 0.70531 in the conventional method is indicated by a one-dot chain line. For any α _L , the prediction error was larger in the division number 100 than in the conventional method in the long-term learning alone.

  FIG. 18 is a graph showing the relationship between the number of divisions and the prediction error when the quality prediction apparatus 200 quality prediction apparatus according to the second embodiment is used. In this case, if there are less than 10 lots that are not in the same lot, short-term learning is continued. As a result, short-term learning is often applied, and it is shown that the prediction accuracy is further improved as compared with the quality prediction method according to the first embodiment.

  The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited to such examples. It is obvious that a person having ordinary knowledge in the technical field to which the present invention pertains can come up with various changes or modifications within the scope of the technical idea described in the claims. Of course, it is understood that these also belong to the technical scope of the present invention.

  For example, in the above embodiments, the quality prediction apparatus is realized as a program on a computer, but the present invention is not limited to such an example. For example, it may be configured by hardware combining an arithmetic device, a memory, and the like. Further, the operation / quality relation analysis apparatus of the present invention may be composed of a plurality of devices or a single device.

  Moreover, in the said embodiment, although the division | segmentation of the local area | region by a division | segmentation pattern candidate production | generation part divided | segmented into 2 parts, this invention is not limited to this example, For example, a local area | region may be divided into 3 parts. .

5 Manufacturing process 100, 200, 300 Quality prediction device 110, 210 Data extraction unit 120, 220 Division pattern candidate creation unit 130, 230, 320 Activity function calculation unit 140, 240 Minimum error division pattern selection unit 141, 345 Local region prediction Value storage unit 142, 360 Long-term learning predicted value calculation unit 143, 355 Short-term learning coefficient storage unit 144, 370 Short-term learning coefficient calculation unit 145 Model error evaluation unit 146 Division pattern selection unit 150, 250 Exponential smoothing coefficient calculation unit 160, 260 Learning Error evaluation unit 170, 270 Division exponent smoothing model determination unit 180, 280 Quality prediction value output unit 190, 290 Database 222 Numerical division generation unit 224 Code division generation unit 310 Operation data input unit 325 Activity function storage unit 330 Quality data input unit 340 stations Region prediction value updating unit 350 short learning coefficient updating unit 380 quality prediction value calculation unit

Claims (14)

A quality prediction device in a manufacturing process,
A data extraction unit for extracting operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database storing operation data and quality data related to a plurality of products;
With respect to the extracted operation data, a division pattern candidate creation unit that creates a plurality of division pattern candidates that divide the whole region into a plurality of local regions, with the region that the variable included in the operation data takes a value as a whole region, ,
For each divided pattern candidate, the quality prediction value in each local region is calculated from the quality prediction value and the actual quality value of the product manufactured immediately before based on the exponential smoothing method, and the weight of the quality prediction value in each local region An activity function calculating unit that calculates a weighting function for calculating the quality prediction value in the entire region as a linear sum with an activity function calculating unit for each local region;
For each divided pattern candidate, a current quality prediction calculated by an exponential smoothing function set based on an exponential smoothing method from past quality data and a quality prediction value of a product manufactured immediately before in each local region Based on the value and the activity function, a long-term learning prediction value that is a quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated, and a short-term learning coefficient that is a prediction value representing a difference between the long-term learning prediction value and the quality data And a minimum error division pattern that selects a division pattern that minimizes a prediction error that is a difference between a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient and the quality data A selection section;
A learning error for determining whether or not the convergence of the prediction error is sufficient based on a comparison result between a prediction error of the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit and a preset evaluation reference value An evaluation unit;
A quality prediction value that outputs a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient of the division pattern determined to have sufficient convergence by the learning error evaluation unit. An output section;
In the exponential smoothing function, an exponential smoothing coefficient calculating unit that calculates an exponential smoothing coefficient that determines the strength of the influence of the past quality prediction on the current quality prediction value;
With
The minimum error division pattern selection unit includes:
Among the local regions, when the local region to which the current operation data belongs is the same as the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in the time series, the short-term based on the exponential smoothing method Update the learning factor,
Among the local regions, if the local region to which the current operation data belongs is different from the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in the time series, an initial value is substituted for the short-term learning coefficient And a quality predicting device characterized by being initialized. The minimum error division pattern selection unit includes:
A long-term learning predicted value calculation unit for calculating the long-term learning predicted value;
A short-term learning coefficient calculation unit that calculates the short-term learning coefficient based on the long-term learning prediction value calculated by the long-term learning prediction value calculation unit and past quality data;
Based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient, the quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated, and a model error evaluation unit that calculates a prediction error that is a difference between the quality prediction value and the quality data;
The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 1, comprising: The minimum error division pattern selection unit includes:
The current operation data and the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series correspond to operation data belonging to different local areas and belonging to the same local area as the current operation data If the number of products processed between the product corresponding to the current operation data and the product corresponding to the current operation data is less than a predetermined value among the products to be processed, The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the short-term learning coefficient is updated instead of initializing the short-term learning coefficient. The minimum error division pattern selection unit includes:
Of the short-term learning coefficient in each local area and the product serial number assigned to each product in order of processing time, the final product serial number that is the product serial number when the previous short-term learning coefficient is updated in each local area And hold
The current operation data and the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series belong to different local areas, and the product serial number of the product corresponding to the current operation data and the The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the short-term learning coefficient is updated when a difference from a final product serial number is less than a predetermined value. A division index smoothing model determination unit that selects one of the plurality of division patterns determined by the learning error evaluation unit to determine that the convergence of the prediction error is sufficient;
The exponential smoothing coefficient calculating unit sets a plurality of exponential smoothing coefficients,
For each exponential smoothing coefficient, a division pattern candidate is created by the division pattern candidate creation unit, and the prediction error is converged by the activity function calculation unit, the minimum error division pattern selection unit, and the learning error evaluation unit. Determining each said division pattern that is sufficient,
5. The division index smoothing model determination unit selects the division pattern having the smallest number of divisions from among the division patterns determined for each of the exponential smoothing coefficients. 6. The quality prediction apparatus according to item 1. The division pattern candidate creation unit
A numerical value division creating unit that divides an operational variable space composed of operational variables that are numerical information included in the operational data;
A code division creation unit that divides a group of code variables that are character code information included in the operation data;
With
6. The division pattern candidate created by the numerical value division creation unit and the division pattern candidate created by the code division creation unit are set as division pattern candidates for the entire region. The quality prediction apparatus according to item.   The activity function is a function configured by combining a normal distribution function having a center at the center of gravity of the local region and a binary function calculated from code division information representing a result of dividing the code variable into groups. The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 6, wherein the quality prediction apparatus is provided.   The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 6, wherein the code division creation unit divides a group including the code variables using a search method.   The quality prediction according to claim 6 or 7, wherein the division pattern candidate creation unit collectively generates division pattern candidates including the operation variable and the code variable using an optimization method. apparatus. The manufacturing process is a steel process,
10. The product according to claim 1, wherein the quality data is a surface wrinkle of a product, a mechanical strength characteristic value, a flatness of a shape, a product size, an internal stress, or a process value affecting the quality. The quality prediction apparatus according to claim 1. The manufacturing process is a hot rolling process of a thin steel plate that is a steel product,
When the quality to be predicted by the quality prediction device is the scraping temperature at the hot-run runout table outlet side,
The operating variables of the manufacturing process are as follows: the amount of C in the molten steel, the amount of Si, the amount of Mn, the amount of B in the molten steel when the material to be rolled has finished the refining process, the target plate width, the target plate thickness, and the equivalent carbon amount The quality predicting apparatus according to claim 10, wherein at least one or more material codes are selected as finish rolling delivery target temperature, winding target temperature, cooling water temperature, and code variable. A quality prediction method in a manufacturing process,
A data extraction step for extracting operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database storing operation data and quality data for a plurality of products;
A divided pattern candidate creation step for creating a plurality of divided pattern candidates that divide the whole area into a plurality of local areas, with the extracted area of the operation data as a whole area of the variable included in the operation data. ,
For each divided pattern candidate, the quality prediction value in each local region is calculated from the quality prediction value and the actual quality value of the product manufactured immediately before based on the exponential smoothing method, and the weight of the quality prediction value in each local region An activity function calculating step for calculating the activity function representing the weight when calculating the quality prediction value in the entire region as a linear sum with an activity,
For each divided pattern candidate, a current quality prediction calculated by an exponential smoothing function set based on an exponential smoothing method from past quality data and a quality prediction value of a product manufactured immediately before in each local region A long-term learning predicted value calculation step of calculating a long-term learning predicted value that is a quality predicted value in the entire region based on the value and the activity function;
A short-term learning coefficient calculating step of calculating a short-term learning coefficient that is a predicted value representing a difference between the long-term learning predicted value and the quality data;
A minimum error division pattern selection step for selecting a division pattern that minimizes a prediction error that is a difference between a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient and the quality data;
A convergence determination step for determining whether or not the prediction error is sufficiently converged based on a comparison result between the prediction error of the selected divided pattern and a preset evaluation reference value;
The entire region calculated based on the long-term learning predicted value and the short-term learning coefficient of the division pattern determined to be sufficiently converged by the step of determining whether or not the convergence of the prediction error is sufficient An output step for outputting a quality prediction value at,
Including
In the short-term learning coefficient calculation step,
Among the local regions, when the local region to which the current operation data belongs is the same as the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in the time series, the short-term based on the exponential smoothing method Update the learning factor,
Among the local regions, if the local region to which the current operation data belongs is different from the local region to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in the time series, an initial value is substituted for the short-term learning coefficient The quality prediction method characterized by performing initialization. Computer
Data extraction means for extracting operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database storing operation data and quality data related to a plurality of products;
About extracted the operational data, the region to take a variable value contained in the operating data as a whole region, creating division pattern candidates plurality create split pattern candidate you divide the entire region into a plurality of local regions Means,
For each divided pattern candidate, the quality prediction value in each local region is calculated from the quality prediction value and the actual quality value of the product manufactured immediately before based on the exponential smoothing method, and the weight of the quality prediction value in each local region An activity function calculating means for calculating, for each local area, an activity function representing a weight when calculating a quality prediction value in the entire area as a linear sum with
For each divided pattern candidate, a current quality prediction calculated by an exponential smoothing function set based on an exponential smoothing method from past quality data and a quality prediction value of a product manufactured immediately before in each local region Based on the value and the activity function, a long-term learning prediction value that is a quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated, and a short-term learning coefficient that is a prediction value representing a difference between the long-term learning prediction value and the quality data And a minimum error division pattern that selects a division pattern that minimizes a prediction error that is a difference between a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient and the quality data A selection means;
A learning error for determining whether or not the convergence of the prediction error is sufficient based on a comparison result between a prediction error of the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit and a preset evaluation reference value An evaluation means;
A quality prediction value that outputs a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient of the division pattern determined to have sufficient convergence by the learning error evaluation means. Output means;
In the exponential smoothing function, exponential smoothing coefficient calculating means for calculating an exponential smoothing coefficient that determines the strength of the influence of the past quality prediction on the current quality prediction value;
With
The minimum error division pattern selection means, when the local area to which the current operation data belongs among the local areas is the same as the local area to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series Updates the short-term learning coefficient based on the exponential smoothing method, and among the local regions, the local region to which the current operation data belongs is a local region to which the operation data is located immediately before the operation data in time series A program for functioning as a quality predicting device, characterized by substituting an initial value into the short-term learning coefficient and initializing it if it is different. On the computer,
Data extraction means for extracting operation data and quality data corresponding to a predetermined selection condition from a database storing operation data and quality data related to a plurality of products;
About extracted the operation data, the region to take a variable value contained in the operating data as a whole region, creating division pattern candidates plurality create split pattern candidate you divide the entire region into a plurality of local regions Means,
For each divided pattern candidate, the quality prediction value in each local region is calculated from the quality prediction value and the actual quality value of the product manufactured immediately before based on the exponential smoothing method, and the weight of the quality prediction value in each local region An activity function calculating means for calculating, for each local area, an activity function representing a weight when calculating a quality prediction value in the entire area as a linear sum with
For each divided pattern candidate, a current quality prediction calculated by an exponential smoothing function set based on an exponential smoothing method from past quality data and a quality prediction value of a product manufactured immediately before in each local region Based on the value and the activity function, a long-term learning prediction value that is a quality prediction value in the entire region is calculated, and a short-term learning coefficient that is a prediction value representing a difference between the long-term learning prediction value and the quality data And a minimum error division pattern that selects a division pattern that minimizes a prediction error that is a difference between a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient and the quality data A selection means;
A learning error for determining whether or not the convergence of the prediction error is sufficient based on a comparison result between a prediction error of the division pattern selected by the minimum error division pattern selection unit and a preset evaluation reference value An evaluation means;
A quality prediction value that outputs a quality prediction value in the entire region calculated based on the long-term learning prediction value and the short-term learning coefficient of the division pattern determined to have sufficient convergence by the learning error evaluation means. Output means;
In the exponential smoothing function, exponential smoothing coefficient calculating means for calculating an exponential smoothing coefficient that determines the strength of the influence of the past quality prediction on the current quality prediction value;
With
The minimum error division pattern selection means, when the local area to which the current operation data belongs among the local areas is the same as the local area to which the operation data located immediately before the operation data in time series Updates the short-term learning coefficient based on the exponential smoothing method, and among the local regions, the local region to which the current operation data belongs is a local region to which the operation data is located immediately before the operation data in time series A computer-readable recording medium storing a program for causing it to function as a quality prediction apparatus, wherein an initial value is substituted into the short-term learning coefficient and the initialization is performed.

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