JP5140639B2 - Remaining life diagnosis method, remaining life diagnosis device and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for non-destructively diagnosing the remaining life of a control wiring of a power receiving panel in a power receiving / transforming facility.

  Conventionally, control wiring is often used for a power receiving panel of a power receiving / transforming facility that needs to be operated with high reliability. If the deterioration of the control wiring progresses, it may lead to malfunction or malfunction of the equipment. In order to prevent such an accident, a remaining life diagnosis technology that can quantify the soundness of the control wiring is desired. . As an effective method for non-destructive diagnosis of control wiring, there is an optical diagnostic technique in which light is applied to an object to be measured and the degree of deterioration is estimated from the reflectance spectrum. For example, a technique for decomposing reflected light into three primary colors and detecting deterioration of each wiring cover material color by a predetermined arithmetic expression (refer to Patent Document 1), a locus of reflectance ratio corresponding to three wavelengths of a reflection spectrum with respect to time. Has been proposed in advance, and a technique for evaluating the degree of deterioration from the trajectory followed by the ratio (see Patent Document 2) and a technique for diagnosing deterioration from the difference in light reflection loss of two wavelengths (see Patent Document 3) have been proposed. .

JP-A-1-265139 JP 2007-285930 A JP-A-8-15131

  However, with the techniques of Patent Documents 1 and 2, it is possible to diagnose deterioration of various types of wiring, but the remaining life cannot be calculated only by determining whether there is deterioration. In the technique of Patent Document 3, the light reflection loss is obtained from the reflectance ratio of light of two wavelengths, and this is converted into a deterioration time to obtain the remaining life, but the complex characteristic of the reflectance ratio is used. Therefore, the remaining life value could not be calculated easily. Furthermore, in the techniques of Patent Documents 1 to 3, environmental evaluation indicating the slowness of deterioration at a place (hereinafter referred to as “site”) where an object to be measured is installed has not been evaluated.

  The present invention solves the above-described conventional problems, and is a non-destructive remaining life diagnosis method, a remaining life diagnosis apparatus, and a remaining life diagnosis apparatus for easily diagnosing the remaining life of control wiring of a power receiving / transforming facility and improving reliability. The purpose is to provide a program.

In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a remaining life diagnosis apparatus for diagnosing the remaining life of an inspection object related to a power receiving / transforming facility, and a remaining life diagnosis method used in the remaining life diagnosis apparatus. When the diagnostic apparatus irradiates each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material with inspection light, among the reflected light reflected from each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material, a predetermined first wavelength and the first wavelength A step of acquiring the intensity of reflected light for a second wavelength different from the sensor through a sensor , and the intensity of reflected light reflected from the inspection reference material for each of the first wavelength and the second wavelength. The reflectance defined as the ratio of the intensity of the reflected light reflected from the inspection object with respect to the second wavelength is calculated from the reflectance calculated for the first wavelength. By subtracting the calculated the reflectance calculating the reflectance difference of the test object and the reflectance difference of the test object with the calculated, and age of testing when the current of said inspection object, secular A prediction formula for predicting the reflectance difference from the age using at least the reflectance difference acquired separately for the same or equivalent product as the inspection object whose number is known, and the known age. and setting a predicted value of the reflectance difference of the future Ru obtained from the prediction equation described above set, the age of reaching the set lifetime threshold with respect to the inspection object and the life of the test object, Calculating the remaining life of the inspection object from the difference between the life and the current age at the time of the inspection.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a remaining life diagnosis method, a remaining life diagnosis apparatus, and a program used for the remaining life diagnosis method for easily diagnosing the remaining life of the control wiring of the power receiving / transforming equipment without damage and increasing the reliability.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the remaining life diagnostic apparatus which becomes an example of this embodiment. It is an enlarged view of the front-end | tip part of the probe with which a remaining life diagnostic apparatus is equipped. It is a figure which shows derivation | leading-out of the reflectance of light. It is a figure which shows the reflectance spectrum of the new article and deteriorated goods of wiring. It is a figure which shows the aged characteristic of the reflectance difference Rsa of wiring. It is a flowchart which shows the process of a reflectance measurement and the remaining life diagnostic method. It is a figure which shows the remaining life calculation method in case there exists measurement data of the reflectance difference at the time of a new article. It is a figure which shows the remaining life calculation method when there is no measurement data of the reflectance difference at the time of a new article. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the extension of the coating | cover of the wiring accelerated-deteriorated with the heat | fever, and deterioration time. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the reflectance difference of the same sample used in FIG. 9, and deterioration time. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the surface resistivity of an insulator, and environmental property. It is a figure which shows the remaining life calculation method of the insulator in a power receiving panel. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the remaining life calculation method of an insulator. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the inclination of a degradation prediction line, and environmental property.

  Hereinafter, a remaining life diagnosis method, a remaining life diagnosis apparatus, and a program according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a remaining life diagnosis apparatus 100 as an example of the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the remaining life diagnosis apparatus 100 irradiates white light to a light source 3 that generates white light and a control wiring (hereinafter referred to as “wiring”) 10 (see FIG. 2) that is an inspection object, A probe 1 (sensor) that receives reflected light from the wiring 10, a spectroscope (sensor) 2 that spectrally resolves the reflected intensity for each wavelength from the reflected light, an optical fiber 5 that guides the light, and a white light that irradiates the spectrum. An optical measurement control unit (measurement unit) 6 that controls a series of operations until the disassembled measurement data is stored in the reflection intensity storage unit 21, and a reflectance difference calculation unit that calculates the reflectance difference of the wiring 10 from the reflection intensity spectrum (Characteristic value calculation unit) 11, a life threshold value calculation unit 12 that calculates the lifetime threshold value of the wiring 10, and a prediction formula for predicting the secular change of the reflectance difference of the wiring 10 are set, and the predicted reflectance difference and lifetime Surplus life diagnosis based on threshold A life diagnosis unit (prediction formula setting unit, remaining life calculation unit) 13, an environmental evaluation unit 14 that evaluates environmentality indicating the deterioration of the wiring 10 at each site, and a reflectance difference calculated from the reflection intensity spectrum are stored. A reflectance difference storage unit 22, a life threshold storage unit 23 that stores the lifetime threshold of the wiring 10, and an environmental storage unit 24 that stores the environmental properties of each site are provided.

  The optical measurement control unit 6 irradiates light to the wiring 10 which is an inspection object, and this reflected light is incident on the spectroscope 2 through the probe 1 and spectrally decomposed to reflect intensity storage data 21 as reflection intensity spectrum data. To remember.

  The reflectance difference calculation unit 11 uses an index in a reflectance spectrum acquired from a new article that is the same as or equivalent to the wiring 10 to be inspected and a deteriorated product that has passed the number of years after manufacture, for each line type and color of the wiring 10. Are selected, and based on the reflectance corresponding to these two wavelengths, the reflectance difference at a predetermined age of the wiring 10 to be inspected and the reflectance difference at the time of inspection are calculated (characteristic value calculation) ).

  The life threshold value calculation unit 12 uses a factor that determines the life of the wiring 10 as a life factor, the relationship between the life factor and the deterioration time of the life factor, and the reflectance difference of the wiring 10 and the deterioration time of the reflectance difference. The life threshold value is determined by calculating the relationship between the life factor and the reflectance difference based on this relationship. Specific examples of the life factor include elongation of the coating of the wiring 10, tensile strength of the coating of the wiring 10, moisture content, insulation resistance, and the like.

  The remaining life diagnosis unit 13 compares the reflectance difference of the wiring 10 to be inspected or an equivalent product at a predetermined age, the age at the time of the inspection of the wiring 10 (hereinafter referred to as “current age”), and the wiring 10 The prediction formula of the secular change of the reflectance difference of the wiring 10 to be inspected is set using the reflectance difference at the time of the inspection, and the predicted value of the future reflectance difference is the life threshold value of the wiring 10 to be inspected. The time when the difference in reflectance is set to be the same as the lifetime of the wiring 10 is defined as the lifetime of the wiring 10, and the remaining life of the wiring 10 is calculated from the difference between the lifetime and the current age.

  The environmental evaluation unit 14 obtains the difference in reflectance from the reflectance difference at a predetermined age of the wiring 10 and the reflectance difference at the lifetime, and deteriorates from the value obtained by dividing this difference by the number of years from the predetermined age to the lifetime. The inclination of the prediction line is obtained, and the environmentality of each site is evaluated using this inclination as the environmentality indicating the slowness of the deterioration of the wiring 10.

  The optical measurement control unit 6, the reflectance difference calculation unit 11, the life threshold value calculation unit 12, the remaining life diagnosis unit 13, and the environmental evaluation unit 14 are dedicated to program processing or dedicated processing by a CPU (Central Processing Unit) included in the remaining life diagnosis device 100. Realized by a circuit. Furthermore, the reflection intensity storage unit 21, the reflectance difference storage unit 22, the life threshold storage unit 23, the environmental property storage unit 24, and a storage unit (non-storage unit) that stores programs for realizing the functions of the remaining life diagnosis apparatus 100. The figure is composed of storage media such as RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), HDD (Hard Disk Drive), and flash memory.

  White light emitted from the light source 3 is guided to the probe 1 through the optical fiber 5 according to an instruction from the optical measurement control unit 6. The probe 1 irradiates light to the wiring 10 to be inspected. FIG. 2 is an enlarged view of the distal end portion of the probe 1. At the tip of the probe 1, a groove 1 a is provided for accurately capturing the reflected light of the light that is received by irradiating the wiring 10. The reflected light from the wiring 10 is received by the probe 1 and guided to the spectroscope 2 through the optical fiber 5. The reflected light is spectrally resolved by the spectroscope 2 and stored in the reflection intensity storage unit 21 as a reflection intensity spectrum.

  In the present embodiment, the remaining lifetime is calculated using the secular change of the light reflectance difference. Therefore, calculation of the remaining life of the wiring 10 will be described by using the vinyl insulated wire for electric equipment as the wiring 10 and using the remaining life diagnosis apparatus 100. In addition, the wiring 10 is comprised including the conductor part for electricity supply, and the coating | coated part which covers and protects this conductor part. In the present embodiment, the portion to be irradiated with light is this covering portion.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the derivation of the reflectance of light. In order to turn on the light source 3, accommodate a rod-shaped white material having the same thickness as the wiring 10 in the groove 1 a at the tip of the probe 1, and block light from the outside other than the light source 3. Cover the tip with a dark curtain and measure the light reflection intensity.

  By measuring the reflection intensity, as shown in FIG. 3A, the reflection intensity spectrum Rw (λ) of the white material when the horizontal axis is the wavelength λ and the vertical axis is the reflection intensity can be measured. Next, when the light source 3 is turned off and measurement is performed in a dark screen, a reflection intensity spectrum D (λ) corresponding to background noise can be measured as shown in FIG. Next, the wiring 10 which is the object to be measured is accommodated in the groove 1a at the tip of the probe 1, and the light source 3 is turned on with a dark screen, and the reflection intensity spectrum S of the wiring 10 as shown in FIG. Measure (λ). Measurement data of these reflection intensity spectra Rw (λ), D (λ), and S (λ) is stored in the reflection intensity storage unit 21 at each measurement.

The reflectance difference calculation unit 11 calculates the reflectance spectrum R (λ) of the wiring 10 from (Equation 1) by using the reflection intensity spectra Rw (λ), D (λ), and S (λ).
R (λ) (%) = (S (λ) −D (λ)) / (Rw (λ) −D (λ)) × 100 (Equation 1)
As shown in (Expression 1), by expressing the reflection intensity from the wiring 10 minus the reflection intensity spectrum D (λ), which is a noise component, as R (λ) as a percentage (%) with respect to the reflection intensity of the white material. Even when the light intensity is weakened due to deterioration of the light source 3, the measurement result is not affected. When the light intensity of the light source is stable, the reflection intensity of the white material or noise used for obtaining the reflectance difference need only be measured once before the measurement date. Absent.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the reflectance spectrum R (λ) of new and deteriorated wiring 10. New products are those within one year of manufacture, and deteriorated products are those that have been manufactured for 27 years. As shown in FIG. 4, the reflectance does not change in the wavelength region of 1000 nm or more, but it can be seen that the reflectance of the deteriorated product greatly decreases in the wavelength region of 560 to 800 nm. Therefore, in the wavelength region of 560 to 800 nm, the “tilt” in the coordinate with the vertical axis representing the reflectance (%) and the horizontal axis representing the wavelength (nm) differs greatly between the new product and the deteriorated product. Here, the "inclination" is new to each other, or refers to the slope of the line that connects the reflectance R (λ ₂₎ of the reflectance R (λ ₁₎ and wavelength 800nm wavelength 560nm degradation products together. Two wavelengths λ ₁ and λ ₂ at which a significant difference in “tilt” appears between the new and deteriorated products are selected as indices.

The reflectance difference calculation unit 11 quantitatively calculates this “inclination” and stores it in the reflectance difference storage unit 22. The amount corresponding to “slope” is a value obtained by subtracting the reflectance R (800) at the wavelength λ ₂ of 800 nm from the reflectance R (560) at the wavelength λ ₁ of 560 nm (hereinafter referred to as “reflectance difference: Rsa”). Can be expressed by the following equation.
Rsa = R (λ ₁ ) −R (λ ₂ ) (Formula 2)
Here, in this example, λ ₁ is 560 nm and λ ₂ is 800 nm. These two wavelengths, that is, 560 nm and 800 nm, indicate two wavelengths in which the “slope” of the straight line connecting two points on the reflectance spectrum is remarkably different between a new product and a deteriorated product.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating the aged characteristic of the reflectance difference Rsa. It is the figure which showed the reflectance difference Rsa calculated | required from the reflectance spectrum of the new article and deteriorated article shown in FIG. 4 as aged characteristics. The reflectance difference Rsa becomes lower as the years have passed since the manufacture. Note that the wavelength of interest differs depending on the material and color of the wiring 10.

  Next, the reflectance measurement and the remaining life diagnosis method will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing processing of the reflectance measurement and remaining life diagnosis method. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a remaining life calculation method when there is measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 is new. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a remaining life calculation method when there is no measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 is new.

  As shown in FIG. 6, first, the light source 3 is turned on for the calibration of the reflectance, and the reflection intensity Rw (λ) of the white material having the same thickness as the wiring 10 is measured. At this time, in order to suppress measurement variations, the probe 1 is covered with a dark screen to eliminate the influence of external light such as sunlight and fluorescent lamps. Next, the light source 3 is turned off, the probe 1 is covered with a dark screen, the reflection intensity D (λ) at that time is measured and stored in the reflection intensity storage unit 21. Hereinafter, unless otherwise specified, it is assumed that a black curtain is put on at the time of measurement (step S1).

  Next, in order to suppress variation in measurement, dirt on the measurement site of the wiring 10 in the power receiving panel is removed with alcohol or water. By cleaning, the irradiation light from the probe 1 reaches the coating of the wiring 10 without being affected by the reflection and absorption of light due to dust on the wiring 10, so that the reflectance from the coating can be accurately measured (step S2). .

  Next, the tip of the probe 1 is applied to the wiring 10 that is the object to be measured, the light source 3 is turned on, the light is irradiated, and the reflection intensity is measured. When the first measurement is completed, the tip of the probe 1 is slightly shifted from the previous measurement position on the coating of the wiring 10 and the measurement is performed again. By repeating this, a plurality of 5 to 10 reflection intensity spectra are measured and stored in the reflection intensity storage unit 21 for one wiring 10 to be measured. By measuring a plurality of reflection intensities, it is possible to evaluate a portion where deterioration is relatively advanced due to the covering of the wiring 10 (step S3).

Next, the reflectance difference calculation unit 11 calculates the reflectance difference Rsa at the wavelengths λ ₁ and λ ₂ from the reflection intensity spectrum. Formula 2 is used for the calculation. The reflectance difference Rsa is calculated by the number of the measured reflection intensity spectra, and stored in the reflectance difference storage unit 22 (step S4).

  Next, the remaining life diagnosis unit 13 calculates the remaining life of the wiring 10. The calculation of the remaining life differs depending on whether the measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 to be measured is new exists or not. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a remaining life calculation method when there is measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when new. The reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 is new can be substituted by using a new wire having the same color and the same color for measurement.

The remaining life diagnosis unit 13 uses the average value of D4 when the data of the reflectance difference Rsa of the wiring 10 when new is D4 and the data of the reflectance difference Rsa of the deteriorated wiring 10 (deteriorated product) is D6. A prediction formula expressed by the following equation is set from a line (hereinafter referred to as “deterioration prediction line”) in which the minimum value of D6 is connected with a straight line, and this straight line is extended to predict deterioration over time t.
Rsa = m (t) (Formula 3)
Then, the remaining life diagnosis unit 13 determines the time when the reflectance difference Rsa calculated from this prediction formula and the life threshold value Rt obtained by the method described later are the same as the life, and this life and the current aging of the wiring 10. The difference from the number is diagnosed as the remaining life. The reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 is new is stored in the reflectance difference storage unit 22, and the value of the life threshold value Rt is stored in the life threshold value storage unit 23.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a remaining life calculation method when there is no measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 to be measured is new. Here, the absence of measurement data means that a new wire 10 to be measured cannot be obtained due to production stoppage or the like. Therefore, in the remaining life calculation method shown in FIG. 8, when the new reflectance difference Rsa cannot be measured in advance, that is, measurement data of the reflectance difference Rsa when the wiring 10 to be measured is new is stored in the reflectance difference storage unit 22. If not.

In this case, the remaining life diagnosis unit 13 is the same as the average value of the data D5 of the reflectance difference Rsa for the first time of the wiring 10 to be inspected, the second time after several years to several decades from the first time. The line 10 is connected to the minimum value of the data D6 of the wiring 10 by a straight line, and a prediction formula expressed by the following formula is set from a deterioration prediction line obtained by extending the straight line.
Rsa = n (t) (Formula 4)
Then, the remaining life diagnosis unit 13 determines the time when the reflectance difference calculated from the prediction formula and the life threshold Rt obtained by the method described later are the same as the life, and this life and the current age of the wiring 10 The difference between and is diagnosed as remaining life.

  If the wiring 10 that is the same type as the wiring 10 whose remaining life is to be calculated and has a different manufacturing age from several years to several decades is in the same power receiving panel or in the same environment, the reflectance of the wiring 10 with a new manufacturing year The deterioration prediction formula is obtained by setting the difference Rsa data as D5 and the older data as D6, and the remaining life of the wiring 10 can be calculated in the same manner as the method shown in FIG. In this case, the remaining life of each wiring 10 is the time from the current age of each wiring 10 to the life. As described above, when the wirings 10 of different manufacturing ages are in the same environment and the manufacturing age difference is small, the accuracy of calculating the remaining life is lowered, but without measuring a time interval of several years to several tens of years. The lifetime can be calculated (step S5).

  As shown in FIGS. 7 and 8, the magnitude (absolute value) of the inclination of the degradation prediction line in the measured wiring 10 is short, and if it is small, the lifetime is short. Therefore, the magnitude θ of the inclination corresponds to the environmental property indicating the slowness of the progress of deterioration. By comparing the measured average value of the inclination θ of the degradation prediction line of the wiring 10 with the average value of the inclination magnitude θ of the wiring 10 of the same or different site measured so far, the measured wiring 10 can evaluate the relative environmental characteristics of the power receiving panel in which 10 is accommodated.

  When the environmentality is extremely low, that is, when the deterioration progresses rapidly, the life of the wiring 10 can be extended by pursuing the cause, removing the cause, and improving the environmentality. If the environmental performance is higher than usual, that is, if the progress of degradation is slow, the cause is identified and applied to other places to improve the environmental performance, thereby prolonging the life. be able to. Thus, by performing environmental evaluation, progress of deterioration can be slowed down (step S6).

  In addition, when the environmental property is quantitatively evaluated, a gradient θy (% / year), which is an annual average value of the gradient θ of the deterioration prediction line, is used. FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the slope of the deterioration prediction line and the environmental property p. Here, the inclination θy (% / year) of the deterioration prediction line means that the new product has a value obtained by subtracting the reflectance difference Rsa of the lifetime from the reflectance difference Rsa of the wiring 10 when the wiring 10 is new. The value divided by the life. In the case shown in FIG. 8, the value obtained by subtracting the reflectance difference Rsa of the lifetime from the reflectance difference Rsa at the first time is divided by the remaining lifetime from the time of the first measurement to the lifetime. The relationship between the gradient θy of the deterioration prediction line and the environmental property p is stored in the environmental property storage unit 24 as the environmental property p of each site. As shown in FIG. 14, the gradient θy and the environmental property p are linked to each other by the relationship p = h (θy).

  Next, calculation of the life threshold value Rt in the life threshold value calculation unit 12 will be described. Here, as an example of the life factor for determining the life threshold value Rt, the elongation percentage E (%) of the coating of the wiring 10 is used. The coating elongation rate E (%) was used because, when the coating deteriorates, a crosslinked structure, which is the molecular structure of the coating, is formed, the coating is cured and the elongation decreases, and the coating becomes brittle. This is because the shock causes problems such as cracks.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing the relationship between the coating elongation of the wiring 10 accelerated by heat and the deterioration time. As shown in FIG. 9, it can be seen that the elongation percentage E (%) of the coating tends to decrease with time due to accelerated deterioration due to heat. The elongation rate E (%) is a value obtained when the coating from which the conductor portion of the control wiring 10 is removed is pulled until it is disconnected. The elongation rate E (%) is defined by the following equation.
E (%) = ΔL / L × 100 (Formula 5)
Here, L is the length of the coating when it is new, and ΔL is the length stretched until the break. The elongation E (%) in FIG. 9 can be expressed by the following equation where t is the accelerated deterioration time.
E (%) = f (t) (Formula 6)

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between the reflectance difference Rsa and the deterioration time of the same sample used in FIG. The characteristic of the figure can be expressed by the following equation where the acceleration deterioration time is t.
Rsa = g (t) (Formula 7)
Therefore, the relationship between the elongation rate E (%) and the reflectance difference Rsa is obtained by eliminating t from Equations 6 and 7.
Rsa = g (f ⁻¹ (E)) (Equation 8)
Here, f− ¹ is an inverse function of f. By using Expression 8, the reflectance difference Rsa with respect to a predetermined elongation rate E (%) determined as the lifetime, that is, the lifetime threshold value Rt can be determined. The life threshold value Rt is stored in the life threshold value storage unit 23 for each line type and color of the wiring 10. Note that, for example, 100% or less is used as the elongation rate E (%) that becomes the lifetime. In this example, the elongation rate E (%) was taken as a life factor for determining the life threshold value Rt, but the life threshold value Rt was determined based on the tensile strength, moisture content, insulation resistance, etc. of the wiring coating in the same manner. It may be calculated.

  According to the present embodiment, by diagnosing the remaining life of the wiring 10, it is possible to grasp the limit of safe use of the power receiving / transforming equipment, and it is possible to plan an optimal update time in a planned manner. Furthermore, since the environmentality p indicating the slowness of deterioration can be quantified, it is possible to make a relative comparison of the environmentality p for each site. If the environmentality p is poor, the cause is estimated from the usage environment of the site, It becomes possible to improve the reliability of the substation equipment by taking measures.

  Next, using the environmental property p calculated from the inclination θy of the deterioration prediction line obtained in the process of calculating the remaining life of the wiring 10, the insulator installed in the power receiving panel at the same site where the wiring 10 is stored The remaining life calculation method will be described with reference to FIGS.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the relationship between the surface resistivity ZR of the insulator and the environmental property p. The surface resistivity ZR is the surface resistivity ZR (Ω / □) of the insulator at each age (10 years, 20 years, 30 years) when the humidity is 80% RH (Relative Humidity). The relationship shown in FIG. 11 is obtained in advance by conducting a thermal deterioration or oxidation deterioration test on the insulator and the wiring 10 in the same environment. The relationship between the environmental property p and the surface resistivity ZR is stored in the database D10 (see FIG. 13). FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a method for calculating the remaining life of an insulator in the power receiving panel. The relationship between the surface resistivity ZR of the insulator at a humidity of 80% RH and the aging of the insulator is shown. FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing processing of a remaining life calculation method for an insulator.

First, from FIG. 14, the inclination θy of the deterioration prediction line is obtained, and the environmental property p corresponding to this inclination θy is obtained. In FIG. 14, when the gradient θy is 0.75% / year, the environmental property p is set to 1 (step S10). Next, the relationship between the environmental property p of the power receiving panel stored in the database D10 and the surface resistivity ZR of the insulator over time is referred to. Using this relationship, the surface resistivity ZR of the insulator in the power receiving panel is calculated from the environmental property p. As an example, in FIG. 11, the surface resistivity ZR of an insulator over 20 years in a power receiving panel at a site where environmentality p is 1 is indicated by an arrow. In this case, the surface resistivity ZR can be calculated as 10 ¹⁰ Ω / □ (step S11).

  Next, the surface resistivity ZR and the life threshold value ZRt when the insulator is new stored in the database D11 (see FIG. 13) are referred to. Then, as shown in FIG. 12, the straight line connecting the point indicating the surface resistivity at the time of a new article and the point indicating the surface resistivity ZR obtained in S11 at 20 years is extended to change over time from the deterioration prediction line. Set the prediction formula. And, the time when the future predicted value of the surface resistivity ZR obtained from this prediction formula and the remaining life threshold value ZRt, which will be described later, become the same is defined as the life, and the time from the current age (20 years) to the life is the remaining life. And calculate.

In the example shown in FIG. 12, the surface resistivity ZR when the insulation resistance is 0 years old is 10 ¹⁵ Ω / □ when it is new, and the surface resistivity ZR is 10 ¹¹ Ω / □ when the inspection is 20 years old. A prediction formula for secular change is set from a deterioration prediction line connecting the points indicating. Since the future predicted value of the surface resistivity ZR obtained from this prediction formula and the remaining life threshold value ZRt at which the surface resistivity ZR is 10 ⁹ Ω / □ are the same, the lifetime is 30 years. Is 30 years, and 10 years from the age of 20 years at the time of inspection to the age of 30 years is calculated as the remaining life (step S12). In addition, the surface resistivity which is a vertical axis | shaft of FIG. 12 is a logarithmic value.

  Here, a method of determining the life threshold value ZRt used when calculating the remaining life of the insulator will be described. The basic idea is the same as the method for determining the life threshold value Rt of the wiring 10. As an example of the life factor for determining the life threshold value ZRt, the moisture content H (%) of the insulator is used. The reason why the moisture content H (%) is used is that when the moisture content of the insulator is increased, the insulation resistance is lowered, causing a problem in the power receiving panel.

An insulator is acceleratedly deteriorated in an environmental test chamber, and the property that the resistance value tends to decrease with the passage of time is used. The moisture content H (%) can be expressed by the following equation as the accelerated deterioration time t.
H (%) = f (t) (Formula 9)
The relationship between the surface resistivity ZR and the degradation time t of the same sample can be expressed by the following equation.
ZR = g (t) (Formula 10)
Therefore, the relationship between the moisture content H and the surface resistivity ZR can be obtained by eliminating t from Equation 9 and Equation 10.
ZR = g (f ⁻¹ (H)) (Equation 11)
Here, f− ¹ is an inverse function of f. By using Equation 11, the surface resistivity ZR corresponding to the predetermined moisture content H (%) determined as the lifetime, that is, the lifetime threshold ZRt can be determined.

  According to the present embodiment, the remaining life of the insulator in the power receiving panel at the same site can be calculated based on the environmental property p calculated by the remaining life diagnosis method using the light reflectance difference of the wiring 10. Therefore, in the present invention, not only the wiring 10 but also the remaining life of the insulator can be calculated, so that the reliability of the power receiving panel can be quantitatively diagnosed more comprehensively than before.

1 Probe (sensor)
1a Groove part 2 Spectrometer (sensor)
3 Light source 5 Optical fiber 6 Optical measurement control unit (measurement unit)
10 Wiring (inspection object)
11 Reflectance difference calculator (characteristic value calculator)
12 life threshold value calculation unit 13 remaining life diagnosis unit (prediction formula setting unit, remaining life calculation unit)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 14 Environmental evaluation part 21 Reflection intensity memory | storage part 22 Reflectance difference memory | storage part 23 Life threshold value memory | storage part 24 Environmentality memory | storage part 100 Remaining life diagnostic apparatus

Claims (3)

A remaining life diagnosis method used for a remaining life diagnosis device for diagnosing the remaining life of an inspection object related to a power receiving / transforming facility,
The remaining life diagnosis device is:
When the inspection light is irradiated to each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material, the first wavelength different from the first wavelength and the first wavelength that are different from the reflected light reflected from each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material. the intensity of the reflected light of the second wavelength, comprising: retrieve via the sensor,
For each of the first wavelength and the second wavelength, a reflectance defined as a ratio of the intensity of the reflected light reflected from the inspection object to the intensity of the reflected light reflected from the inspection reference material is calculated. And subtracting the reflectance calculated for the second wavelength from the reflectance calculated for the first wavelength to calculate a reflectance difference of the inspection object ;
The calculated reflectance difference of the inspection object, the age at the time of inspection of the inspection object, and the reflectance difference separately acquired for the same or equivalent product as the inspection object whose age is known , Using at least the known aging, and setting a prediction formula for predicting the reflectance difference from the aging ;
Predicted value of the reflectance difference of future Ru obtained from the prediction equation described above settings, the age of reaching the set lifetime threshold with respect to the inspection object and the life of the test object, the test and the life A remaining life diagnosis method comprising: calculating a remaining life of the inspection object from a difference from the current age . A remaining life diagnosis device for diagnosing the remaining life of an inspection object related to a power receiving / transforming facility,
When the inspection light is irradiated to each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material, the first wavelength different from the first wavelength and the first wavelength that are different from the reflected light reflected from each of the inspection object and the inspection reference material. the intensity of the reflected light of the second wavelength, and a measurement unit retrieve via the sensor,
For each of the first wavelength and the second wavelength, a reflectance defined as a ratio of the intensity of the reflected light reflected from the inspection object to the intensity of the reflected light reflected from the inspection reference material is calculated. And a reflectance difference calculation unit for subtracting the reflectance calculated for the second wavelength from the reflectance calculated for the first wavelength to calculate a reflectance difference of the inspection object ;
The calculated reflectance difference of the inspection object, the age at the time of inspection of the inspection object, and the reflectance difference separately acquired for the same or equivalent product as the inspection object whose age is known , A prediction formula setting unit that sets a prediction formula for predicting the reflectance difference from the age, using at least the known age , and
Predicted value of the reflectance difference of future Ru obtained from the prediction equation described above settings, the age of reaching the set lifetime threshold with respect to the inspection object and the life of the test object, the test and the life A remaining life diagnostic apparatus comprising: a remaining life calculating unit that calculates a remaining life of the inspection object from a difference from the current age . A program for causing a computer to execute the remaining life diagnosis method according to claim 1 .

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