JP5085352B2 - Earthquake disaster prevention system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention is a seismic disaster prevention system that controls a controlled object with a measured seismic intensity measured by a local seismometer, and a controlled seismic intensity estimated from information given by an emergency earthquake bulletin distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency etc. when an earthquake occurs The present invention relates to a so-called hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system that is used in combination with an earthquake disaster prevention system that controls an object.

  FIGS. 8A and 8B are conceptual diagrams showing a configuration of a conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system. FIG. 8A is an earthquake disaster prevention system using a seismometer (in this specification, “measurement type”). The configuration diagram of the “earthquake disaster prevention system” and the diagram (b) are the configuration diagrams of the earthquake disaster prevention system using the earthquake early warning (referred to as “predictive earthquake disaster prevention system” in this specification).

  At the time of occurrence of earthquake 1 (time t0), the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system 10 observes the main motion 1b reaching the installation point with the seismometer 11, and at the time of observing a certain level of vibration (time t3), The control signal S11 is output to the control target device 15 that is the control target. Thereby, the control object apparatus 15 operate | moves and the disaster prevention measures, such as alerting | reporting of an emergency broadcast alarm, a stop of a manufacturing apparatus, etc., are implemented, for example.

  On the other hand, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20 is a method for estimating the predicted seismic intensity from the emergency earthquake bulletin S3. When the initial tremor 1a is observed by the seismic observation network 2 when the earthquake 1 occurs, for example, it is distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency 3. When the earthquake early warning S3 received is received by the emergency earthquake bulletin reception / analysis system unit 21, the seismic intensity at the installation point is estimated, and when it is determined that the seismic intensity exceeds the predetermined control signal output condition, the main motion 1b Before reaching (time t3−Δt), a control signal S21 is output to the control target device 15. Thereby, the control object apparatus 15 operate | moves and the disaster prevention measures, such as alerting | reporting of an emergency broadcast alarm, a stop of a manufacturing apparatus, etc., are implemented, for example.

  The earthquake early warning S3 is the time when the earthquake observation network 2 composed of seismometers located all over Japan detects the initial tremor 1a of the earthquake 1 when the earthquake 1 occurs. This is information that estimates the magnitude (M), which is a unit representing the magnitude of earthquake 1, and is distributed to the user. The earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 21 is a device that receives the earthquake early warning S3 and estimates the seismic intensity (eight levels of seismic intensity 0 to 7) indicating the degree of shaking of the earthquake 1. The earthquake early warning S3 and its The predicted arrival seismic intensity and the predicted arrival time are calculated from the installation point information (latitude, longitude, ground amplification factor), and when it is determined that the seismic intensity that is a predetermined control signal output condition is exceeded, the control signal S21 is output. .

The gal corresponding to the seismic intensity is a unit of acceleration used to express the strength of the earthquake. 1 gal indicates that the acceleration increases at a rate of 1 cm per second (acceleration), and 980 gal indicates 1 G ( Earth gravity). The relationship between the maximum acceleration (gal) and the seismic intensity class is as follows.
Maximum acceleration (gal): Seismic intensity class
0 (no feeling), 1 (minor earthquake), 2 (light earthquake), 3 (weak earthquake)
About 40-110: 4 (Middle earthquake)
110-240: 5 weak (strong earthquake)
About 240-520: 5 strong (strong earthquake)
About 520-830: A little under 6 (severe earthquake)
About 830 to 1,500: 6 strong (severe earthquake)
About 1,500: 7 (severe earthquake)

  Technologies related to conventional earthquake disaster prevention systems are described in the following documents, for example.

JP 2007-108012 A

However, the conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system has the following problems.
In the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system 10 of FIG. 8, since the control signal S11 is output after the main motion 1b arrives, the control signal S11 accurately reaches the control target device 15 while greatly shaking, and the control signal S11. It is not guaranteed that the control-target device 15 that has received the message will operate normally. And the greater the seismic intensity, the greater the risk.

  On the other hand, in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20, since the seismic intensity is predicted and the control signal S21 is output before the main motion 1a arrives, the control signal S21 arrives accurately and the control object that has received the control signal S21 The operation of the device 15 is also guaranteed. However, since the estimated seismic intensity calculated from the earthquake early warning S3 includes an estimation error, when the control signal S21 should not be output (for example, when the output condition threshold is 180 gal, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20 estimates 200 gal). However, when the actual measurement value is 150 gal), the control signal S21 may be output, and there is a possibility that an erroneous report, an unnecessary operation stop, etc. may occur and a great deal of damage may occur.

The earthquake disaster prevention system of the present invention includes a first earthquake disaster prevention system unit that measures an earthquake shake using a seismic intensity meter and outputs a first control signal to a controlled object to be a disaster prevention target , an epicenter position, and a magnitude wherein receiving the emergency earthquake bulletin containing information and a second earthquake disaster prevention system unit for outputting a second control signal for operating the controlled object.

The first earthquake disaster prevention system unit measures the seismic intensity and outputs a measured seismic intensity, and determines to generate the first control signal when the measured seismic intensity exceeds a certain seismic intensity. A processing unit compares the measured seismic intensity with a first threshold that is a control target seismic intensity for operating the controlled object, and when the measured seismic intensity is greater than or equal to the first threshold, the first control signal is And a first control means for outputting the first control signal to a non-output state when the measured seismic intensity is less than the first threshold value .

The second earthquake disaster prevention system unit receives the earthquake early warning, analyzes the received earthquake early warning, predicts the seismic intensity and arrival time of the main earthquake motion, and predicts the predicted seismic intensity and predicted arrival. An analysis unit that generates time and generates the second control signal before the seismic main motion comes when the seismic main motion exceeding a certain seismic intensity is predicted to arrive; The second control signal is output to the controlled object when the threshold value of 1 and a prediction error with respect to the predicted seismic intensity are added or more, and when the predicted seismic intensity is less than the second threshold value, And a second control means for setting the second control signal to a non-output state.

According to the present invention, a hybrid-type earthquake disaster prevention system is constructed by combining the first and second earthquake disaster prevention system units, and the control signal output condition threshold is set in anticipation of the prediction error of the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit. Since the set seismic intensity has a difference, when a strong earthquake arrives, the control signal can be reliably transmitted to the controlled object before the main motion arrives, and the control seismic intensity is less than the control target seismic intensity. Therefore, the control signal can be output only at the control target seismic intensity or higher without transmitting the control signal. Therefore, a highly reliable earthquake disaster prevention system can be realized with a relatively simple configuration.

Hybrid earthquake disaster prevention system is provided with a measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit, and a prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit.

The measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit uses a seismic intensity meter to compare the first threshold value, which is a control target seismic intensity for operating the controlled object , with the measured seismic intensity at the time when the seismic vibration is measured more than a certain seismic intensity , When the measured seismic intensity is greater than or equal to the first threshold, a first control signal is output to the controlled object. The Predictive Earthquake Disaster Prevention System Department receives and analyzes the earthquake early warnings, predicts the seismic intensity and arrival time of the main earthquake motion, generates the predicted seismic intensity and predicted arrival time, and is predicted to reach a certain seismic intensity or higher. When the predicted seismic intensity is equal to or greater than a second threshold obtained by adding the first threshold and a prediction error with respect to the predicted seismic intensity before the shaking occurs, a second control signal is transmitted to the controlled object. Output to.

(Configuration of Example 1)
FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram of a configuration of a hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system showing Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

  The hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system is a second earthquake disaster prevention system section that estimates the predicted seismic intensity at the installation point based on the emergency earthquake bulletin S32 delivered from the earthquake occurrence information service station (for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency) 32 when the earthquake 30 occurs ( For example, a prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit) 40 and a first earthquake disaster prevention system unit (for example, a measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit) 50 using a seismometer are provided.

The predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 includes an emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system unit 41. This earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41 delivers wirelessly or by wire (time t2) when the earthquake observation network 31 detects the initial tremor 30a of the earthquake 30 (time t1) when the earthquake 30 occurs (time t0). ) The receiving unit 41a that receives the earthquake early warning S32 and the received earthquake early warning S32 are used to predict the seismic intensity and arrival time at the installation point of the main motion 30b of the earthquake 30, and to predict that a certain seismic intensity or more will arrive. In this case, the second control for operating the controlled object 45 (for example, the control target device such as an emergency broadcast alarm device, a gas shut-off device, a production device stop device, etc.) 45 before the shaking occurs. The control signal S41c is output to the control target device 45 in accordance with a control signal output condition defined based on the analysis unit 41b that generates the signal S41c and the second threshold TH2 (time t3). Second control means for controlling whether Delta] t) (e.g., and a control signal output control means) 41c. The analysis unit 41b and the control signal output control unit 41c are configured by computer software or individual circuits (hardware).

The measurement-type disaster prevention system unit 50 performs one or a plurality of seismometers 51 that measure the shaking of the main motion 30b of the earthquake 30 that has reached the installation point (time t3), and a determination process for the measurement value. In accordance with a control signal output condition defined based on the first threshold TH1, a determination processing unit 52 that generates a first control signal S53 for operating the device to be controlled 45 at the time when the vibration of the device is measured more than a certain seismic intensity, The first control means (for example, control signal output control means) 53 for controlling whether or not to output the control signal S53 to the control target device 45 (time t3) is provided. The seismometer 51 includes an acceleration sensor or the like. The determination processing unit 52 and the control signal output control means 53 are configured by computer software or individual circuits (hardware).

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of control signal output conditions and assumption conditions in the control signal output control means 41c and 53 of FIG.

In the control signal output condition example, for example, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs the control signal S53 when the measured seismic intensity exceeds 120 gal, and the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that the seismic intensity exceeds 170 gal. The control signal S41c is defined to be output 5 seconds before the predicted main movement arrival time. This control signal output condition example is a setting example when the following is assumed.
The control target seismic intensity that is the first threshold TH1 of the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 is set to 120 gal.
The second threshold TH2 of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 (that is, the estimated seismic intensity calculated from the emergency earthquake bulletin S32) is
TH2 = TH1 + Δth = 170 gal
However, TH1; 1st threshold value (= 120 gal)
Δth; prediction error of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 40 (= 50 gal)
And includes a prediction error Δth of ± 50 gal.
-If the vibration is 220 gal or less, the control signals S41c and S53 are normally transmitted to the control target device 45.
-If the vibration is 220 gal or less, the controlled device 45 should operate normally.

(Operation of Example 1)
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of output timing when the control signal output conditions in the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 and the prediction-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 in FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 in FIG. 1 predicts without error. In these examples, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 is set to output the control signal S41c before Δt (= 5) seconds from the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50.

  When an earthquake occurs (time t0), the earthquake observation network 31 detects initial tremor 30a (time t1), and an emergency earthquake bulletin S32 is distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency 32 (time t2). In the earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41 in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, when the receiving unit 41a receives the earthquake early warning S32, the analysis unit 41b calculates the predicted seismic intensity and arrival time t3 of the main motion 30b. When the ultimate seismic intensity is expected to exceed the second threshold TH2 (= 170 gal), the control signal output control means 41c sends a control signal to the control target device 45 at time t3-5, 5 seconds before time t3. S41c is output. Thereby, for example, disaster prevention measures such as notification of an emergency broadcast alarm and stop of a manufacturing apparatus or the like are implemented.

  If the predicted seismic intensity is calculated to be less than the second threshold value (= 170 gal) and the predicted earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 did not output the control signal S41c, the actual shake is the first threshold value TH1 (= 120 gal). Is exceeded, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 measures the main motion 30b with the seismometer 51, and the control is performed at time t3 by the determination processing unit 52 and the control signal output control means 53 based on the measurement result. The signal S53 is output.

  For this reason, in an earthquake in which strong shaking is expected (predicted seismic intensity of 170 gal or more), the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 outputs the control signal S41c before the main motion 30b arrives. The signal S41c is transmitted, and the control target device 45 can reliably operate before the main motion 30b comes. Moreover, in the earthquake 30 in which the moderate shaking that the output condition is not satisfied in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 is expected, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 exceeds the control target seismic intensity when the main motion 30b comes ( When 120 gal) is measured, the control signal S53 is output.

In this way, even if the prediction error Δth is included in the calculation result of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, the control signal S41c is not output with less than the control target seismic intensity ( less than 120 gal), and the control target device is erroneously detected. 45 is avoided, and the control target device 45 can be reliably operated in an earthquake 30 that is equal to or greater than the control target seismic intensity. In addition, the main motion 30b may be reached before the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 outputs the control signal S41c. In this case, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs the control signal S53 at that time. Thus, the control target device 45 can be operated.

(Effect of Example 1)
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts with a -50 gal error with respect to the measured seismic intensity under the control signal output condition of FIG. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts with an error of +50 gal with respect to the measured seismic intensity under the control signal output condition of FIG.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 5, when the measured seismic intensity is predicted at −50 gal, when an earthquake with a measured seismic intensity of 220 gal or more comes, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that an earthquake of 170 gal or more will come. The control signal S41c is output at time t3-5, which is 5 seconds before the predicted movement arrival time. For an earthquake of 120 to 220 gal, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs a control signal S53 at the main motion arrival time t3. In addition, as shown in FIG. 6, when the predicted seismic intensity is predicted to be +50 gal, when an earthquake with a measured seismic intensity of 120 gal or higher comes, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that an earthquake of 170 gal or higher will come. The control signal S41c is output at time t3-5, which is 5 seconds before the estimated arrival time.

In this way, by constructing a hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system, expecting the prediction error Δth of the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, and making a difference in the set seismic intensity that becomes the control signal output condition threshold, when a strong earthquake arrives , the control signal S41c can be operated by sending to the main tremor arrives before reliably controlled equipment 45, and, without transmitting the control signal S41c incorrectly less than the control target seismic intensity, the control target seismic intensity over Only the control signals S41c and S54 can be output. Therefore, a highly reliable earthquake disaster prevention system can be constructed with a relatively simple configuration.

  FIG. 7 is a conceptual diagram of the configuration of the hybrid earthquake disaster prevention system showing the second embodiment of the present invention. Elements common to the elements in FIG. 1 showing the first embodiment are denoted by common reference numerals.

  In the hybrid-type earthquake disaster prevention system of the second embodiment, instead of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 and the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 of the first embodiment, the prediction-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40A and the measurement having different configurations from these are used. A type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50A is provided. The predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40A includes an emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system unit 41A having a configuration different from that of the first embodiment. The earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41A includes a reception unit 41a and an analysis unit 41b similar to those in the first embodiment. The measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50A includes a seismometer 51 and a determination processing unit 52 similar to those in the first embodiment. A common control means (for example, control signal output control means) 60 is connected to the output sides of the analysis unit 41b and the determination processing unit 52. The common control signal output control means 60 has the same function as the control signal output control means 43 and 53 of the first embodiment, and outputs a control signal to the control target device 45.

  In the second embodiment, the common control signal output control means 60 is provided on the output side of the emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system section 41A and the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system section 50A, and is output from the control signal output control means 60. Similar to the first embodiment, the operation of the control target device 45 is controlled by the control signal. Therefore, the same effects as those of the first embodiment are obtained. However, since the common control signal output control means 60 is provided in place of the individual control signal output control means 41c and 53 of the first embodiment, the configuration can be simplified.

(Modification)
The present invention is not limited to the first and second embodiments. For example, the emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system units 41 and 41A, the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system units 50 and 50A, and the control signal output control unit 60 are not illustrated. Various modifications are possible, such as configuring with other circuits, changing the thresholds TH1 and TH2 and the prediction error Δth to other numerical values, or setting the time Δt to a time other than 5 seconds.

It is a conceptual diagram of a structure of the hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system which shows Example 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the control signal output conditions and assumption conditions in the control signal output control means 41c and 53 of FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of the output timing when each control-signal output condition in the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system part 50 at the time of an earthquake occurrence in FIG. 1 and the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 is satisfied. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 is predicted without an error in FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 estimates with the error of -50gal with respect to the measurement seismic intensity in the control signal output condition of FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 estimates with the error of +50 gal with respect to the measured seismic intensity on the control signal output conditions of FIG. It is a conceptual diagram of a structure of the hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system which shows Example 2 of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the structure of the conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system.

Explanation of symbols

30 Earthquake 32 Japan Meteorological Agency 40, 40A Prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 41, 41A Earthquake early warning reception / analysis system part 41a Reception part 41b Analysis part 41c, 53, 60 Control signal output control means 50, 50A Measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system part 51 Seismometer 52 Judgment processing part

Claims (2)

Using seismograph, a first earthquake disaster prevention system unit for outputting a first control signal to the controlled object to be disaster target earthquake shaking meter measurement to,
A second earthquake disaster prevention system unit for outputting a second control signal for operating the front Symbol controlled object by receiving emergency earthquake bulletin containing hypocenter location and magnitude information,
An earthquake disaster prevention system with
The first earthquake disaster prevention system part is
The seismometer that measures the shaking of the earthquake and outputs the measured seismic intensity;
A determination processing unit that generates the first control signal when the measured seismic intensity is greater than or equal to a certain seismic intensity;
A first threshold value, which is a control target seismic intensity for operating the controlled object, is compared with the measured seismic intensity. When the measured seismic intensity is equal to or greater than the first threshold value, the first control signal is sent to the controlled object. And when the measured seismic intensity is less than the first threshold, the first control means for making the first control signal in a non-output state,
The second earthquake disaster prevention system section
A receiver for receiving the earthquake early warning;
Analyzing the received earthquake early warning, predicting the seismic intensity and arrival time of the seismic main motion, generating a predicted seismic intensity and predicted arrival time, and if the seismic main motion exceeding a certain seismic intensity is predicted to arrive An analysis unit for generating the second control signal before the main earthquake motion comes;
When the predicted seismic intensity is equal to or greater than a second threshold obtained by adding the first threshold and a prediction error with respect to the predicted seismic intensity, the second control signal is output to the controlled object, and the predicted seismic intensity is the second A second control means for setting the second control signal to a non-output state when the threshold is less than
An earthquake disaster prevention system characterized by comprising: The first and second control means include
The first and second seismic disaster prevention system units are provided in common, and control the output of the first and second control signals according to a predetermined control signal output condition. The earthquake disaster prevention system according to 1.