JP2009180508A - Earthquake disaster prevention system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To construct a highly reliable earthquake disaster prevention system with a relatively simple constitution. <P>SOLUTION: This hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system has a measuring type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40, and a predicting type earthquake disaster prevention system part 50. The system part 40 makes an analysis by receiving an emergency earthquake quick report, and predicts seismic intensity and the arrival time of earthquake main motion, and outputs a control signal S41c for operating an apparatus 45 from a control means 41c before its swinging comes when predicting that a certain seismic intensity or more arrives. The system part 50 outputs a control signal S53 for operating the apparatus 45 from a control means 53 when measuring swinging of an earthquake by a certain seismic intensity or more by using a seismic intensity meter 51. The control means 41c and 53 set a threshold value TH2 for outputting the control signal S41c to seismic intensity higher than a threshold value TH1 for outputting the control signal S53 by taking into consideration a prediction error Δth of the system part 40, and operates the apparatus 45 in control target seismic intensity or more. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention is a seismic disaster prevention system that controls a controlled object with a measured seismic intensity measured by a local seismometer, and a controlled seismic intensity estimated from information given by an emergency earthquake bulletin distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency etc. when an earthquake occurs The present invention relates to a so-called hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system that is used in combination with an earthquake disaster prevention system that controls an object.

  FIGS. 8A and 8B are conceptual diagrams showing a configuration of a conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system. FIG. 8A is an earthquake disaster prevention system using a seismometer (in this specification, “measurement type”). The configuration diagram of the “earthquake disaster prevention system” and the diagram (b) are the configuration diagrams of the earthquake disaster prevention system using the earthquake early warning (referred to as “predictive earthquake disaster prevention system” in this specification).

  At the time of occurrence of earthquake 1 (time t0), the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system 10 observes the main motion 1b reaching the installation point with the seismometer 11, and at the time of observing a certain level of vibration (time t3), The control signal S11 is output to the control target device 15 that is the control target. Thereby, the control object apparatus 15 operate | moves and the disaster prevention measures, such as alerting | reporting of an emergency broadcast alarm, a stop of a manufacturing apparatus, etc., are implemented, for example.

  On the other hand, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20 is a method for estimating the predicted seismic intensity from the emergency earthquake bulletin S3. When the initial tremor 1a is observed by the seismic observation network 2 when the earthquake 1 occurs, for example, it is distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency 3. When the earthquake early warning S3 received is received by the emergency earthquake bulletin reception / analysis system unit 21, the seismic intensity at the installation point is estimated, and when it is determined that the seismic intensity exceeds the predetermined control signal output condition, the main motion 1b Before reaching (time t3−Δt), a control signal S21 is output to the control target device 15. Thereby, the control object apparatus 15 operate | moves and the disaster prevention measures, such as alerting | reporting of an emergency broadcast alarm, a stop of a manufacturing apparatus, etc., are implemented, for example.

  The earthquake early warning S3 is the time when the earthquake observation network 2 composed of seismometers located all over Japan detects the initial tremor 1a of the earthquake 1 when the earthquake 1 occurs. This is information that estimates the magnitude (M), which is a unit representing the magnitude of earthquake 1, and is distributed to the user. The earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 21 is a device that receives the earthquake early warning S3 and estimates the seismic intensity (eight levels of seismic intensity 0 to 7) indicating the degree of shaking of the earthquake 1. The earthquake early warning S3 and its The predicted arrival seismic intensity and the predicted arrival time are calculated from the installation point information (latitude, longitude, ground amplification factor), and when it is determined that the seismic intensity that is a predetermined control signal output condition is exceeded, the control signal S21 is output. .

The gal corresponding to the seismic intensity is a unit of acceleration used to express the strength of the earthquake, 1 gal indicates that the acceleration increases at a rate of 1 cm per second (acceleration), and 980 gal indicates 1 G ( Earth gravity). The relationship between the maximum acceleration (gal) and the seismic intensity class is as follows.
Maximum acceleration (gal): Seismic intensity class
0 (no feeling), 1 (minor earthquake), 2 (light earthquake), 3 (weak earthquake)
About 40-110: 4 (Middle earthquake)
110-240: 5 weak (strong earthquake)
About 240-520: 5 strong (strong earthquake)
About 520-830: A little under 6 (severe earthquake)
About 830 to 1,500: 6 strong (severe earthquake)
About 1,500: 7 (severe earthquake)

  Technologies related to conventional earthquake disaster prevention systems are described in the following documents, for example.

JP 2007-108012 A

However, the conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system has the following problems.
In the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system 10 of FIG. 8, since the control signal S11 is output after the main motion 1b arrives, the control signal S11 accurately reaches the control target device 15 while greatly shaking, and the control signal S11. It is not guaranteed that the control-target device 15 that has received the message will operate normally. And the greater the seismic intensity, the greater the risk.

  On the other hand, in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20, since the seismic intensity is predicted and the control signal S21 is output before the main motion 1a arrives, the control signal S21 arrives accurately and the control object that has received the control signal S21 The operation of the device 15 is also guaranteed. However, since the estimated seismic intensity calculated from the earthquake early warning S3 includes an estimation error, when the control signal S21 should not be output (for example, when the output condition threshold is 180 gal, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 20 estimates 200 gal). However, when the actual measurement value is 150 gal), the control signal S21 may be output, and there is a possibility that an erroneous report, an unnecessary operation stop, etc. may occur and a great deal of damage may occur.

  The earthquake disaster prevention system of the present invention includes a first earthquake disaster prevention system unit, a second earthquake disaster prevention system unit, and a control means.

  The first earthquake disaster prevention system unit outputs a first control signal for operating a controlled object when a seismic intensity is measured by a seismic intensity meter or more. When the second earthquake disaster prevention system section receives and analyzes the earthquake early warning including the location of the epicenter and magnitude information, predicts the seismic intensity and arrival time of the main earthquake motion, and it is predicted that a certain seismic intensity will arrive In addition, a second control signal for operating the controlled object is output before the shaking occurs. Further, the control means considers a prediction error of the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit, and sets a second threshold value for outputting the second control signal from the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit. By setting the seismic intensity higher than the first threshold for outputting the first control signal from one earthquake disaster prevention system unit (for example, second threshold = first threshold + prediction error), It has the function to operate the target at the control target seismic intensity or higher.

  Another earthquake disaster prevention system of the present invention includes first and second earthquake disaster prevention system units similar to the earthquake disaster prevention system, and control means having a configuration different from that of the earthquake disaster prevention system. The control means receives the first control signal from the first earthquake disaster prevention system unit when the main earthquake motion arrives before the second control signal is output from the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit. Is output to operate the controlled object.

  According to the present invention, a hybrid-type earthquake disaster prevention system is constructed by combining the first and second earthquake disaster prevention system units, and the control signal output condition threshold is set in anticipation of the prediction error of the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit. Because the set seismic intensity has a difference, when a strong earthquake arrives, the control signal can be reliably transmitted to the controlled object before the main motion arrives, and the control seismic intensity is less than the target seismic intensity. Therefore, the control signal can be output only at the control target seismic intensity or higher without transmitting the control signal. Therefore, a highly reliable earthquake disaster prevention system can be realized with a relatively simple configuration.

  The hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system includes a measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit, a prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit, and a control means.

  The said measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system part outputs the 1st control signal for operating a to-be-controlled object at the time of measuring the earthquake shake more than a certain seismic intensity using a seismic intensity meter. The Predictive Earthquake Disaster Prevention System receives emergency earthquake bulletins, analyzes them, predicts the seismic intensity and arrival time of major earthquake motion, and if it is predicted that a certain seismic intensity will arrive, before that shake comes A second control signal for operating the controlled object is output. Further, the control means considers a prediction error of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit, and sets a second threshold value for outputting the second control signal from the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit as the measurement earthquake. The controlled object is controlled by setting the seismic intensity higher than the first threshold for outputting the first control signal from the disaster prevention system unit (for example, second threshold = first threshold + prediction error). Operate at or above the target seismic intensity.

(Configuration of Example 1)
FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram of a configuration of a hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system showing Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

  The hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system is a second earthquake disaster prevention system section that estimates the predicted seismic intensity at the installation point based on the emergency earthquake bulletin S32 delivered from the earthquake occurrence information service station (for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency) 32 when the earthquake 30 occurs ( For example, a prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit) 40 and a first earthquake disaster prevention system unit (for example, a measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit) 50 using a seismometer are provided.

  The predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 includes an emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system unit 41. This earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41 delivers wirelessly or by wire (time t2) when the earthquake observation network 31 detects the initial tremor 30a of the earthquake 30 (time t1) when the earthquake 30 occurs (time t0). ) The receiving unit 41a that receives the earthquake early warning S32 and the received earthquake early warning S32 are used to predict the seismic intensity and arrival time at the installation point of the main motion 30b of the earthquake 30, and to predict that a certain seismic intensity or more will arrive. In this case, the second control for operating the controlled object 45 (for example, the control target device such as an emergency broadcast alarm device, a gas shut-off device, a production device stop device, etc.) 45 before the shaking occurs. The control signal S41c is output to the control target device 45 in accordance with a control signal output condition defined based on the analysis unit 41b that generates the signal S41c and the second threshold TH2 (time t3). Control means for controlling whether Delta] t) (e.g., and a control signal output control means) 41c. The analysis unit 41b and the control signal output control unit 41c are configured by computer software or individual circuits (hardware).

  The measurement-type disaster prevention system unit 50 performs one or a plurality of seismometers 51 that measure the shaking of the main motion 30b of the earthquake 30 that has reached the installation point (time t3), and a determination process for the measurement value. In accordance with a control signal output condition defined based on the first threshold TH1, a determination processing unit 52 that generates a first control signal S53 for operating the device to be controlled 45 at the time when the vibration of the device is measured more than a certain seismic intensity, Control means (for example, control signal output control means) 53 for controlling whether or not to output the control signal S53 to the control target device 45 (time t3) is provided. The seismometer 51 includes an acceleration sensor or the like. The determination processing unit 52 and the control signal output control means 53 are configured by computer software or individual circuits (hardware).

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of control signal output conditions and assumption conditions in the control signal output control means 41c and 53 of FIG.

In the control signal output condition example, for example, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs the control signal S53 when the measured seismic intensity exceeds 120 gal, and the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that the seismic intensity exceeds 170 gal. The control signal S41c is defined to be output 5 seconds before the predicted main movement arrival time. This control signal output condition example is a setting example when the following is assumed.
The control target seismic intensity that is the first threshold TH1 of the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 is 120 gal.
The second threshold TH2 of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 (that is, the estimated seismic intensity calculated from the emergency earthquake bulletin S32) is
TH2 = TH1 + Δth = 170 gal
However, TH1; 1st threshold value (= 120 gal)
Δth; prediction error of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system 40 (= 50 gal)
And includes a prediction error Δth of ± 50 gal.
-If the vibration is 220 gal or less, the control signals S41c and S53 are normally transmitted to the control target device 45.
-If the vibration is 220 gal or less, the controlled device 45 should operate normally.

(Operation of Example 1)
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of output timing when the control signal output conditions in the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 and the prediction-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 when an earthquake occurs in FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 in FIG. 1 predicts without error. In these examples, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 is set to output the control signal S41c before Δt (= 5) seconds from the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50.

  When an earthquake occurs (time t0), the earthquake observation network 31 detects initial tremor 30a (time t1), and an emergency earthquake bulletin S32 is distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency 32 (time t2). In the earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41 in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, when the receiving unit 41a receives the earthquake early warning S32, the analysis unit 41b calculates the predicted seismic intensity and arrival time t3 of the main motion 30b. When the ultimate seismic intensity is expected to exceed the second threshold TH2 (= 170 gal), the control signal output control means 41c sends a control signal to the control target device 45 at time t3-5, 5 seconds before time t3. S41c is output. Thereby, for example, disaster prevention measures such as notification of an emergency broadcast alarm and stop of a manufacturing apparatus or the like are implemented.

  If the predicted seismic intensity is calculated to be less than the second threshold value (= 170 gal) and the predicted earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 did not output the control signal S41c, the actual shake is the first threshold value TH1 (= 120 gal). Is exceeded, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 measures the main motion 30b with the seismometer 51, and the control is performed at time t3 by the determination processing unit 52 and the control signal output control means 53 based on the measurement result. The signal S53 is output.

  For this reason, in an earthquake in which strong shaking is expected (predicted seismic intensity of 170 gal or more), the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 outputs the control signal S41c before the main motion 30b arrives. The signal S41c is transmitted, and the control target device 45 can reliably operate before the main motion 30b comes. Moreover, in the earthquake 30 in which the moderate shaking that the output condition is not satisfied in the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 is expected, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 exceeds the control target seismic intensity when the main motion 30b comes ( When 120 gal) is measured, the control signal S53 is output.

  As described above, even when the prediction error Δth is included in the calculation result of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, the control signal S41c is not output below the control target seismic intensity (120 gal or less), and the control target device is erroneously detected. 45 is avoided, and the control target device 45 can be reliably operated in an earthquake 30 that is equal to or greater than the control target seismic intensity. In addition, the main motion 30b may be reached before the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 outputs the control signal S41c. In this case, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs the control signal S53 at that time. Thus, the control target device 45 can be operated.

(Effect of Example 1)
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts with a -50 gal error with respect to the measured seismic intensity under the control signal output condition of FIG. 2. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of an output result when the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts with an error of +50 gal with respect to the measured seismic intensity under the control signal output condition of FIG.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 5, when the measured seismic intensity is predicted at −50 gal, when an earthquake with a measured seismic intensity of 220 gal or more comes, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that an earthquake of 170 gal or more will come. The control signal S41c is output at time t3-5, which is 5 seconds before the predicted movement arrival time. For an earthquake of 120 to 220 gal, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 outputs a control signal S53 at the main motion arrival time t3. In addition, as shown in FIG. 6, when the predicted seismic intensity is predicted to be +50 gal, when an earthquake with a measured seismic intensity of 120 gal or higher comes, the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 predicts that an earthquake of 170 gal or higher will come. The control signal S41c is output at time t3-5, which is 5 seconds before the estimated arrival time.

  In this way, by constructing a hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system, expecting the prediction error Δth of the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40, and making a difference in the set seismic intensity that becomes the control signal output condition threshold, when a strong earthquake arrives The control signal S41c can be reliably transmitted to the control target device 45 before the main motion arrives and can be operated, and the control signal S41c is not erroneously transmitted below the control target seismic intensity, and the control target seismic intensity is exceeded. Only the control signals S41c and S54 can be output. Therefore, a highly reliable earthquake disaster prevention system can be constructed with a relatively simple configuration.

  FIG. 7 is a conceptual diagram of the configuration of the hybrid earthquake disaster prevention system showing the second embodiment of the present invention. Elements common to the elements in FIG. 1 showing the first embodiment are denoted by common reference numerals.

  In the hybrid-type earthquake disaster prevention system of the second embodiment, instead of the predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40 and the measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50 of the first embodiment, the prediction-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40A and the measurement having different configurations from these are used. A type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50A is provided. The predictive earthquake disaster prevention system unit 40A includes an emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system unit 41A having a configuration different from that of the first embodiment. The earthquake early warning reception / analysis system unit 41A includes a reception unit 41a and an analysis unit 41b similar to those in the first embodiment. The measurement-type earthquake disaster prevention system unit 50A includes a seismometer 51 and a determination processing unit 52 similar to those in the first embodiment. A common control means (for example, control signal output control means) 60 is connected to the output sides of the analysis unit 41b and the determination processing unit 52. The common control signal output control means 60 has the same function as the control signal output control means 43 and 53 of the first embodiment, and outputs a control signal to the control target device 45.

  In the second embodiment, the common control signal output control means 60 is provided on the output side of the emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system section 41A and the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system section 50A, and is output from the control signal output control means 60. Similar to the first embodiment, the operation of the control target device 45 is controlled by the control signal. Therefore, the same effects as those of the first embodiment are obtained. However, since the common control signal output control means 60 is provided in place of the individual control signal output control means 41c and 53 of the first embodiment, the configuration can be simplified.

(Modification)
The present invention is not limited to the first and second embodiments. For example, the emergency earthquake warning reception / analysis system units 41 and 41A, the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system units 50 and 50A, and the control signal output control unit 60 are not shown in the figure. Various modifications are possible, such as configuring with other circuits, changing the thresholds TH1 and TH2 and the prediction error Δth to other numerical values, or setting the time Δt to a time other than 5 seconds.

It is a conceptual diagram of a structure of the hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system which shows Example 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the control signal output conditions and assumption conditions in the control signal output control means 41c and 53 of FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of the output timing when each control-signal output condition in the measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system part 50 at the time of an earthquake occurrence in FIG. 1 and the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 is satisfied. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 is predicted without an error in FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 estimates with the error of -50gal with respect to the measurement seismic intensity in the control signal output condition of FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of an output result when the prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 40 estimates with the error of +50 gal with respect to the measured seismic intensity on the control signal output conditions of FIG. It is a conceptual diagram of a structure of the hybrid type earthquake disaster prevention system which shows Example 2 of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the structure of the conventional general earthquake disaster prevention system.

Explanation of symbols

30 Earthquake 32 Japan Meteorological Agency 40, 40A Prediction type earthquake disaster prevention system part 41, 41A Earthquake early warning reception / analysis system part 41a Reception part 41b Analysis part 41c, 53, 60 Control signal output control means 50, 50A Measurement type earthquake disaster prevention system part 51 Seismometer 52 Judgment processing part

Claims (5)

A first earthquake disaster prevention system unit that outputs a first control signal for operating a controlled object when a seismic intensity is measured at a certain seismic intensity or more using a seismic intensity meter;
An earthquake early warning including the location of the earthquake and magnitude information is received and analyzed to predict the seismic intensity and arrival time of the main motion of the earthquake. A second earthquake disaster prevention system unit that outputs a second control signal for operating the controlled object;
In consideration of the prediction error of the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit, the second threshold value for outputting the second control signal from the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit is determined from the first earthquake disaster prevention system unit. Control means for operating the controlled object at a control target seismic intensity or higher by setting the seismic intensity higher than a first threshold for outputting the first control signal;
An earthquake disaster prevention system characterized by comprising   The earthquake disaster prevention system according to claim 1, wherein the second threshold value is set to a seismic intensity obtained by adding the first threshold value and the prediction error. A first earthquake disaster prevention system unit that outputs a first control signal for operating a controlled object when a seismic intensity is measured at a certain seismic intensity or more using a seismic intensity meter;
An earthquake early warning including the location of the earthquake and magnitude information is received and analyzed to predict the seismic intensity and arrival time of the main motion of the earthquake. A second earthquake disaster prevention system unit that outputs a second control signal for operating the controlled object;
When the main earthquake motion arrives before the second control signal is output from the second earthquake disaster prevention system unit, the first control signal is output from the first earthquake disaster prevention system unit and the first control signal is output. Control means for operating the controlled object;
An earthquake disaster prevention system characterized by comprising   The control means is provided in each of the first and second earthquake disaster prevention system units, and controls output of the first and second control signals in accordance with a predetermined control signal output condition. The earthquake disaster prevention system of any one of Claims 1-3.   The control means is provided in common for the first and second earthquake disaster prevention system units, and controls the output of the first and second control signals according to a predetermined control signal output condition. The earthquake disaster prevention system of any one of Claims 1-3 characterized by the above-mentioned.