JP4516875B2 - Energy supply system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a combined heat and power generation device that generates heat and electric power together with time in a planned operation target period that is predicted based on time-series actual heat load data and time-series actual power load data by a consumer. The present invention relates to an energy supply system provided with control means for executing a planned operation mode in which a combined heat and power supply apparatus is planned based on a series predicted power load and a time series predicted heat load.

  As an energy supply system for supplying energy of heat and electric power to consumers, a combined heat and power device that generates heat and electric power, and heat that recovers and consumes the heat generated by the combined heat and power device Control that executes a planned operation mode in which the combined heat and power unit is planned to be operated based on the predicted power load and the predicted thermal load within the planned operation target period, the load unit, the power load unit that consumes the power generated by the combined heat and power unit There are systems in which means are provided. In such an energy supply system, hot water is stored in a hot water storage device that stores the heat consumed by the heat load device in the form of hot water by the planned operation of the combined heat and power generation device that generates the hot water. When used, a sufficient amount of hot water is already stored in the hot water storage device. However, it must be considered that consumers do not live in a regular lifestyle pattern every day, that is, the actual power load and heat load do not occur according to the predicted power load and predicted heat load.

  In view of such problems, the planned operation of the combined heat and power unit is performed by predicting how much hot water should be stored in the hot water storage device by what time based on the normal lifestyle patterns of consumers. In addition, when a consumer uses hot water in a special usage pattern different from the normal life pattern, the customer himself / herself specifies a specific period and a target hot water volume, and the target hot water volume is maintained during the specific period. An energy supply system configured to operate a combined heat and power supply device has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2002-5525 A

  In the conventional energy supply system described above, when a consumer uses hot water in a usage pattern different from a normal life pattern, the demand is about what time zone is and how much hot water is used. Although the house itself is judged and commanded, the customer himself / herself accurately predicts how much the specific period and the target hot water storage amount will be in a special usage pattern of hot water different from past life patterns. That comes with difficulty.

  Therefore, even if the customer himself / herself specifies the target hot water storage amount and time, and the planned operation of the combined heat and power unit is performed based on the specified contents, the power output and heat output of the combined heat and power unit are the actual power load and It may be excessive or insufficient with respect to the heat load. In that case, although it is known that the lifestyle pattern of the consumer is different from the normal time, the planned operation based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load becomes a habit. And there is a high possibility that the energy efficiency of the energy supply system will be reduced, such as the disposal of heat when the hot water is left over or the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler due to the lack of hot water.

  This invention is made | formed in view of said subject, The objective is to provide the energy supply system which can suppress the fall of energy efficiency, even if a consumer's life pattern differs from usual. is there.

In order to achieve the above object, the first characteristic configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention includes a combined heat and power device that generates heat and electric power, time-series actual heat load data by a customer, and time-series Control for executing a planned operation mode for planned operation of the combined heat and power unit based on a time-series predicted power load and a time-series predicted heat load within a planned operation target period predicted based on actual actual power load data An energy supply system provided with means,
Execution permission / relevance related information receiving means for receiving execution permission / relevance related information related to execution permission / rejection of the planned operation mode from the consumer;
A planned operation determination unit for determining whether to execute the planned operation mode based on the execution permission / inhibition related information,
When the determination result of the planned operation determination unit is negative in execution of the planned operation mode, the control means is in the preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode in the middle of the planned operation target period. It is in the point comprised so that it may drive.

According to the first characteristic configuration, the planned operation determination unit determines whether to execute the planned operation mode based on the execution permission / relevance related information related to the execution permission / rejection of the planned operation mode received from the execution permission / rejection related information receiving unit. By determining, in the planned operation target period, it is determined whether it is better to operate the combined heat and power device in the planned operation mode or whether to operate the combined heat and power device in the planned operation mode. Is called. Then, when the determination result of the planned operation determination unit is negative in the execution of the planned operation mode, the control means, during the planned operation target period, in the preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode, Driven.
That is, when the consumer's daily life pattern is regular, the actual heat load and power load by the customer are close to the predicted heat load and the predicted power load. It is meaningful to execute the planned operation mode in which the combined heat and power device is planned. Further, when the consumer determines that his / her life pattern is an irregular life pattern that is not suitable for executing the planned operation mode, the planned operation mode is determined using the execution permission / rejection related information receiving means. The preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode is executed, so that excess or deficiency of heat that can occur when the planned operation becomes a failure can be prevented.
Therefore, even if a consumer's life pattern differs from usual, the energy supply system which can suppress decline in energy efficiency will be provided.

  In addition to the first feature configuration, the second feature configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention is an operation mode in which the preliminary operation mode is an operation mode in which the cogeneration device is operated so as to cover a currently requested current power load. In that point.

According to the second characteristic configuration, the control means operates the cogeneration device in the preliminary operation mode in which the cogeneration device is operated so as to cover the currently requested current power load. The combined heat and power unit is operated in accordance with the load. Accordingly, a large excess or deficiency of electric power does not occur, and a reduction in energy efficiency can be suppressed.
Alternatively, the preliminary operation mode may be an operation mode in which a constant output operation of the cogeneration device is continuously or intermittently executed.

  In addition to the first or second feature configuration, the third feature configuration of the energy supply system according to the present invention is characterized in that the execution permission / rejection related information receiving unit receives execution denial of the planned operation mode from the consumer. The point is that it is a switch.

  According to the third feature configuration, when the execution denial of the planned operation mode is received by the execution denial switch as the execution permission / rejection related information receiving means, the customer himself who knows best whether the life pattern is regular or not Therefore, the control means operates the cogeneration apparatus in the preliminary operation mode according to the intention display. As a result, it is possible to reliably prevent excess or deficiency of heat that may occur when the combined heat and power supply device is operated in the planned operation mode.

According to a fourth characteristic configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to third characteristic configurations, hot water stored in a hot water storage device that stores hot water by heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device is provided. There is a bath bathing means for bathing in the bathtub using
The execution permission / rejection related information receiving means has a bath hot water reservation switch for receiving a reservation input of a bath hot water execution time to the bathtub,
The planned operation determination unit is configured to determine whether or not to execute the planned operation mode based on an input state of the bath hot water reservation switch until a set time within the planned operation target period.

  According to the fourth characteristic configuration described above, for example, on the basis of the input status of the bath hot water reservation switch as the execution permission / rejection related information receiving means, for example, the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is received every day in the morning. Nevertheless, if no input is made at 12:00 on that day, it can be considered that the intention of the consumer's daily life pattern is irregular was given by the consumer himself. And according to the intention display, a control means comes to operate a heat-and-electric power supply apparatus in the said preliminary operation mode. As a result, it is possible to reliably prevent excess or deficiency of heat that may occur when the combined heat and power supply device is operated in the planned operation mode.

  According to a fifth characteristic configuration of the energy supply system of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to fourth characteristic configurations, the control unit is configured to operate the cogeneration device in the preliminary operation mode. From the time-series actual heat load data and the time-series actual power load data excluding the actual heat load data and the actual power load data collected during the planned operation target period, the predicted heat load and the prediction It is configured to predict the power load.

  According to the fifth characteristic configuration described above, the control means is a planned operation target period during which the operation of the combined heat and power device is performed in the preliminary operation mode, that is, a record of days on which the life pattern can be regarded as irregularly changed. By predicting predicted thermal load data and predicted power load data from time-series actual thermal load data and actual power load data excluding the thermal load data and actual power load data, the predicted thermal load data and predicted power load data are obtained. The past time-series actual heat load data and actual power load data accumulated for prediction do not include data that disturbs their regularity. That is, the predicted heat load data and the predicted power load data are predicted based on the actual heat load data and the actual power load data collected when the lifestyle pattern regarding the heat consumption and power consumption of the consumer is regular. Thus, the reliability of the predicted heat load data and the predicted power load data can be ensured.

An energy supply system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
As shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the energy supply system recovers the fuel cell 1 as a combined heat and power generation device that generates electric power and heat, and the heat generated by the fuel cell 1 with cooling water. It comprises a hot water storage unit 4 that uses hot water to store hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and supplies a heating medium to the heating terminal 3, and a control means 5 that controls the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the hot water storage unit 4. .

The fuel cell 1 is configured such that its output can be adjusted, and an inverter 6 for system linkage is provided on the power output side of the fuel cell 1, and the inverter 6 uses the generated power of the fuel cell 1 for the commercial system. 7 is configured to have the same voltage and the same frequency as the received power received from 7.
The commercial system 7 is, for example, a single-phase three-wire system 100/200 V, and is electrically connected to a power load device 9 such as a television, a refrigerator, or a washing machine via a received power supply line 8.
The inverter 6 is electrically connected to the received power supply line 8 via the generated power supply line 10, and the generated power from the fuel cell 1 is supplied to the power load device 9 via the inverter 6 and the generated power supply line 10. It is configured to supply.

The received power supply line 8 is provided with a power load measuring means 11 for measuring the power load of the power load device 9, and this power load measuring means 11 is a so-called current flowing in the received power supply line 8 to the commercial system 7 side. It is also configured to detect whether or not a reverse power flow occurs.
The electric power supplied from the fuel cell 1 to the received power supply line 8 is controlled by the inverter 6 so that a reverse power flow does not occur, and the surplus power of the generated power is recovered by replacing the surplus power with heat. 12 is configured to be supplied.

The electric heater 12 is composed of a plurality of electric heaters, and is provided so as to heat the cooling water of the fuel cell 1 flowing through the cooling water circulation path 13 by the operation of the cooling water circulation pump 15, and is connected to the output side of the inverter 6. The operation switch 14 is switched ON / OFF.
The operation switch 14 is configured to adjust the power consumption of the electric heater 12 according to the amount of surplus power so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 increases as the amount of surplus power increases. Yes.
Incidentally, the surplus power is calculated as described above, and ON / OFF is switched by the operation switch 14 so that the power consumption of the electric heater 12 becomes equal to or greater than the surplus power. The amount of power obtained by drawing the generated power of the fuel cell 1 from the power load and adding the power consumed by the electric heater 12 is covered by the received power received from the commercial system 7.

The hot water storage unit 4 circulates hot water for heat source through a hot water storage tank 2 for storing hot water in a state where temperature stratification is formed, a hot water circulation pump 17 for circulating hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 through a hot water circulation path 16, and a heat source circulation path 20. The heat source circulation pump 21 to be heated, the heat medium circulation pump 23 to circulate and supply the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 through the heat medium circulation path 22, the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 to heat the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16, and the heat source The heat source heat exchanger 25 for heating the hot water for the heat source flowing through the circulation path 20, the heat exchanger for heat medium heating 26 for heating the heat medium flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22, and the fan 27 are operated. The auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29 for heating the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 by the combustion of the burner 28 and the heat source hot water flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is provided.
That is, the “hot water storage device” of the present invention can be realized by the hot water storage unit 4 of the present embodiment.

The hot water circulation path 16 includes a hot water circulation pump 17 that circulates hot water. A hot water circulation pump 17 is branched and connected so that a part thereof is in parallel. A three-way valve 18 is provided at the connection location. A radiator 19 is provided on the road.
Then, by switching the three-way valve 18, the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to pass through the radiator 19, and the hot water taken out from the lower part of the hot water storage tank 2 is circulated so as to bypass the radiator 19. It is comprised so that it may switch to the state to be made to.

The hot water storage heat exchanger 24 is configured to heat the hot water flowing through the hot water circulation path 16 by passing the cooling water of the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat output from the fuel cell 1. ing.
In the heat source heat exchanger 25, the hot water for the heat source flowing through the heat source circulation path 20 is heated by passing the cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 that has recovered the heat generated by the fuel cell 1. It is configured.
The auxiliary heating boiler J includes a fan 27, a burner 28, and an auxiliary heating heat exchanger 29. When the hot water is not sufficiently stored in the hot water storage tank 2 and the temperature of the hot water supplied to the hot water supply device 33 is equal to or lower than the set temperature, the hot water is heated by the auxiliary heating boiler J. In the present embodiment, the hot water supply device 33 includes bath hot water filling means for performing bath hot water filling (one form of hot water supply) on the bathtub using hot water stored in the hot water storage unit 4.
In addition, the heat source circulation path 20 is provided with a heat source interrupting valve 38 for interrupting the flow of hot water for the heat source.

The cooling water circulation path 13 is branched into a hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side and a heat source heat exchanger 25 side, and the flow rate of cooling water and the heat source heat to be passed through the branch water to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side. A diversion valve 30 is provided for adjusting the ratio of the flow rate of the cooling water to be passed to the exchanger 25 side.
The diversion valve 30 allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the hot water storage heat exchanger 24 side, or allows the entire amount of cooling water in the cooling water circulation path 13 to flow to the heat source heat exchanger 25 side. It is comprised so that it can also be made.

In the heat exchanger 26 for heat medium heating, the heat flowing through the heat medium circulation path 22 is caused by flowing hot water for the heat source heated by the heat exchanger 25 for heat source or the heat exchanger 29 for auxiliary heating. It is comprised so that a medium may be heated.
The heating terminal 3 includes a floor heating device, a bathroom heating device, and the like.

  Further, a hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 for measuring the hot water supply heat load when supplying hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is provided, and a heating heat load measuring means 32 for measuring the heating heat load at the heating terminal 3 is also provided. ing. As described above, the hot water supply heat load measuring means 31 measures the hot water supply heat load in the currant or the like constituting the hot water supply apparatus 33 or the hot water supply heat load in the bath hot water filling means constituting the hot water supply apparatus 33.

  As shown in FIG. 2, a remote control operation unit 34 that can be operated by a consumer is provided. The remote control operation unit 34 includes a bath hot water switch 35 for instructing the start of bath hot water filling, a bath hot water reservation switch 36 for accepting a reservation input of an execution time of the bath hot water from a customer, and the power load and heat load of the day. Is provided with a switch for indicating that it is different from the normal life pattern, that is, a specific day switch 37 as an execution denial switch that accepts execution denial of the planned operation mode from the customer.

  The control means 5 controls the operation of the fuel cell 1 and the operation state of the cooling water circulation pump 15 while operating the cooling water circulation pump 15 during the operation of the fuel cell 1, as well as the hot water circulation pump 17 and the heat source. By controlling the operation state of the circulation pump 21 and the heat medium circulation pump 23, the hot water storage operation for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 and the heat medium supply operation for supplying the heat medium to the heating terminal 3 are performed. ing.

Incidentally, when supplying hot water, the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is supplied with the heat source intermittent valve 38 closed, and the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 is heated by the auxiliary heating boiler J, Water is mixed with the hot water taken out from the hot water storage tank 2 to supply hot water at the hot water supply set temperature set by the remote control operation unit 34.
Therefore, in the hot water storage tank 2, hot water is stored within the capacity of the hot water storage tank 2 by subtracting the hot water extracted for hot water supply from the hot water added according to the output of the fuel cell 1. become.

Next, with reference to FIGS. 1-16, the operation control of the fuel cell 1 in the energy supply system of this invention is demonstrated.
In the energy supply system of the present invention, the control means 5 is configured to execute a planned operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is planned to be operated based on the predicted power load and the predicted heat load of the consumer within the planned operation target period. ing.
As shown in FIG. 2, the control means 5 includes a predicted power load calculation unit 51, a predicted thermal load calculation unit 52, a temporary operation pattern reading unit 53, a predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54, and a maximum predicted energy reduction amount selection unit 55. A temporary operation time zone setting unit 56, a predicted heat output integration unit 57, and a storage unit 63 are provided.
The storage unit 63 stores past time-series actual power load data and past time-series actual results measured by the power load measuring unit 11, the hot water supply thermal load measuring unit 31, and the heating heat load measuring unit 32. Thermal load data is stored. Specifically, the power load measurement means 11, the hot water supply heat load measurement means 31 and the heating heat load measurement means 32 respectively separate time-series power load data, hot water supply heat load data, and heating heat load data for each unit time. As shown in FIG. 3, the measurement results for the past three weeks (a total of 21 days) are divided into unit periods in the order of passage of time, in other words, in a state of being divided by day and by time zone of each day. It is stored in the storage unit 63 every unit time (1 hour). The storage unit 63 also stores bath hot water time data when the bath hot water switch 35 of the remote controller 34 is turned on, and reservation execution time data when a reservation is input using the bath hot water reservation switch 36. Is remembered.

  The predicted power load calculation unit 51 calculates a future time-series predicted power load based on the past time-series actual power load data of the customer stored in the storage unit 63. The predicted heat load calculation unit 52 calculates a future time-series predicted heat load based on the past time-series actual heat load data of the customer stored in the storage unit 63. This heat load includes a hot water supply heat load that uses hot water by the hot water supply device 33 and a heating heat load that consumes the heat of the hot water by the heating terminal 3, but in the description of the present embodiment, for ease of explanation. Next, a case where a hot water supply heat load is generated as a heat load will be described. For example, FIG. 4A to be described later shows a time-series predicted power load calculated by the predicted power load calculation unit 51, and FIG. 4B shows a predicted heat load calculation unit 52. Calculated time-series predicted heat load.

  The temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 is configured to read the temporary operation pattern data of the fuel cell 1 stored in the storage unit 63. Specifically, the temporary operation pattern data stored in the storage unit 63 includes the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation target period in which the planned operation of the fuel cell 1 is performed (in this embodiment, 24 hours from 0:00 to 24:00). Various patterns to be operated once from the start time to the stop time, that is, 300 types of patterns from pattern 1 to pattern 300 are registered, and the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 uses these temporary operation patterns as the first pattern. The pattern 1 to the 300th pattern 300 are read one by one.

  The predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 is configured to calculate the predicted energy reduction amount when the fuel cell 1 is temporarily operated on the main operation basis so as to cover the predicted power load according to the read temporary operation pattern. . The predicted energy reduction amount (P) calculated by the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 purchases power from the commercial system 7 and operates the auxiliary heating boiler J so as to cover the predicted power load and the predicted hot water supply heat load in the planned operation target period. The fuel cell 1 is operated in accordance with a predetermined pattern so as to cover the predicted power load and the predicted hot water supply heat load from the predicted energy consumption (E1) at the time, and the auxiliary heating boiler J is installed for the predicted hot water heat load that is insufficient. The predicted power load that is in operation and is insufficient is a value obtained by subtracting the predicted energy consumption (E2) when purchasing power from the commercial grid 7. That is, when the predicted energy reduction amount (p) is expressed by a mathematical formula, the following mathematical formula (1) is obtained.

  P = E1-E2 (1)

  In this formula (1), the predicted energy amount (E1) when the fuel cell 1 is not operated can be expressed by the following formula (2).

E1 = [(predicted hot water supply heat load in the planned operation target period) / (hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] + [(predicted power purchase amount to cover the predicted power load in the planned operation target period) / (power generation efficiency of the commercial system 7) ]] (2)

  The predicted energy amount (E2) when operating the fuel cell 1 can be expressed by the following mathematical formula (3).

E2 = (energy use amount when the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation according to the temporary operation pattern) + [(remaining estimated power purchase amount that needs to be purchased in shortage even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Power generation efficiency of the commercial system 7)] + [(Remaining predicted hot water supply heat load that needs to be replenished even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] (3 )

  Further, when calculating the predicted energy amount (E2), it is desirable to consider the startup loss of the fuel cell 1, that is, the energy loss at startup. This start-up loss does not need to be considered during the continuous operation of the fuel cell 1, but occurs when the fuel cell 1 is started from a stopped state and is predicted to start at the start of the planned operation target period. The energy amount (E2) can be expressed by the following mathematical formula (4).

E2 = (energy use amount when the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation according to the temporary operation pattern) + [(remaining estimated power purchase amount that needs to be purchased in shortage even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Power generation efficiency of commercial system 7)] + [(Remaining predicted hot water supply heat load that needs to be replenished even if the fuel cell 1 is operated) / (Hot water supply efficiency of the auxiliary heating boiler J)] + Startup loss・ (4)

  The maximum predicted energy reduction amount selecting unit 55 is configured to select the maximum value of the predicted energy reduction amounts in each temporary operation pattern calculated by the predicted energy reduction amount calculating unit 54. The temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 sets the operation time zone of the temporary operation pattern corresponding to the selected maximum predicted energy reduction amount as the temporary operation time zone, and this temporary operation time zone is stored in the storage unit 63. So that

  The predicted heat output integration unit 57 integrates the predicted heat output generated when operating on the main operation base so as to cover the predicted power load over the temporary operation time period. This predicted heat output is calculated considering the heat loss when hot water is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 (this heat loss is calculated based on the predicted hot water supply heat load and taking into account the time for hot water storage in the hot water tank 2, The so-called predicted effective hot water storage amount considering the heat dissipation loss is preferable, and this heat dissipation loss increases as the time for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 increases and decreases as the time for storing hot water decreases.

  The control means 5 further includes a current power load calculation unit 58, a power generation output setting unit 59, a current heat output integration unit 60, and a heat output comparison unit 61. The current power load calculation unit 58 calculates the current actual power load of the power load device 9, and this current power load is calculated using the measurement data of the power load measuring means 11. The power generation output setting unit 59 sets the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 when the main operation is performed so as to cover the current power load based on the current power load, and the current heat output integration unit 60 sets the fuel cell 1 to Based on the current power load, the current heat output generated when operating based on the main operation is integrated, and this heat output also takes heat loss into account (this heat loss is also based on the predicted power load, It is preferably calculated in consideration of the time for which hot water is stored in the tank 2, and is a so-called current effective hot water storage amount in consideration of such heat dissipation loss.

Next, operation control (planned operation mode and preliminary operation mode) of the fuel cell 1 performed in the energy supply system will be described with reference to flowcharts of FIGS.
In this energy supply system, when performing control to operate the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode, first, the planned operation target period for setting the temporary operation pattern is set to 24 hours (one day), and a predetermined specific time of the start, for example, The predicted energy reduction amount is calculated every midnight. In step S <b> 1 shown in FIG. 5, the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 provides the temporary operation time zone of the fuel cell 1 that maximizes the predicted energy reduction amount at the specific time (in the present embodiment, midnight). Execute the setting control. FIG. 6 shows a flow of setting control of the temporary operation time zone of the fuel cell 1 performed by the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56.

  In the predicted load calculation processing control in step S1a of FIG. 6, the predicted power load calculation unit 51 is a time series in the planned operation target period based on the past time series actual power load data stored in the storage unit 63. The expected power load is calculated. Similarly, in the predicted load calculation processing control in step S1a, the predicted thermal load calculation unit 52 is time-series in the planned operation target period based on the past time-series actual thermal load data stored in the storage unit 63. Calculate the expected heat load.

Hereinafter, specific processing contents of the predicted load calculation processing control in the predicted power load calculation unit 51 and the predicted thermal load calculation unit 52 will be described with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS.
When the actual power load data and the actual heat load data on the day before the prediction target day, which is the planned operation target period, are finished at midnight, and the actual results are confirmed, the actual power load data and the results on the previous day of the prediction target date Based on the measurement result of the thermal load data, a data determination process is performed to determine whether the predicted power load data and the predicted thermal load data can be used as the prediction source data (step S19, Step S20) After that, a predicted data creation process for creating predicted power load data and predicted heat load data for each time zone of the prediction target date is executed (step S30).

  In the data determination process (step S20), as described above, the actual power load data and the actual heat load data are counted from the prediction target date for the past three weeks (a total of 21 days). It is stored in a state that is sorted in order by day and by time zone of each day, but actual power load data and actual heat load data on the day before the prediction target date, actual power load data and actual heat load for the remaining 20 days It is the structure which determines the similarity between each of data. Hereinafter, the data determination process (step S20 in FIG. 7) will be specifically described with reference to FIG.

  The storage unit 63 includes a prediction source data availability determination memory that stores a count value UP as a similarity determination result as described later in a state corresponding to each time zone of each day, and when control is started. First, the prediction source data availability determination memory for each day / time zone is shifted by one day (step S21). That is, every time one day of measurement is completed, the stored contents are shifted by one day to shift the stored contents so as to always correspond to the latest 21 days of data as shown in FIG.

  Next, from the day before the prediction target day (D1 in the example shown in FIG. 3) to one day before (day = 2) (D2 in the example shown in FIG. 3), the past 20 days (day = 21 (D21)) ) For all of the actual power load data and the actual heat load data, the similarity between the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for each time zone from the day before the prediction target date, and the correlation coefficient α It determines using (step S22, S23). Therefore, here, the past 20 days from the day before the previous day of the prediction target day are the determination targets for determining the similarity relationship.

  If the correlation coefficient α is equal to or greater than the set value (0.7), the count value UP stored in the prediction data availability determination memory for each day / time zone is incremented for the time zone of the corresponding day ( +1), and increments (+1) the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory for each day / time zone corresponding to the day before the prediction target date (steps S24, S25, S26). Then, the determination of the degree of similarity using the correlation coefficient as described above is repeated every day (steps S27, S28, and S29), and when all the past 20 days have been completed, the data determination process ends.

  For example, the actual power load data and the actual heat load data in the “midnight” time zone the day before the prediction target date, and the actual power load data in each “late night” time zone for the past 20 days, Correlation coefficient α with actual heat load data is sequentially obtained, and if there is a correlation coefficient α larger than the set value (0.7), it is stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory corresponding to the time zone of the day. Count value UP to be incremented. Then, such processing is sequentially executed for each of the other time zones (morning, noon, evening) on the day before the prediction target date.

  The count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory of the storage unit 63 is updated daily every time this control is executed, but the prediction source data availability determination memory for each day / time zone is If the relationship number α is greater than the set value (0.7), the count values are sequentially accumulated. That is, if there are many data similar to data in the same time zone on another day, the count value of the prediction source data availability determination memory for each day / time zone in that time zone becomes a large value. That means that the time zone of the day is often similar in energy consumption to the same time zone of another day.

  The correlation coefficient is well known, but a simple explanation of how to find it is, for example, variables X, Y such as (X1, Y1), (X2, Y2),... (Xn, Yn). When there are n sets of data, the correlation coefficient α of the variables X and Y can be obtained by an equation as described in the following equation (1). When the correlation between data is large, the correlation coefficient is a value close to “1”, and when there is no correlation, the correlation coefficient is a small value close to “0”.

  For example, actual power load data and actual heat load data in the time zone of “midnight” the day before the prediction target date, actual power load data and actual heat load data in the time zone of “late night” for the past 20 days, and If the actual power load data and the actual heat load data at 11:00 pm the day before the prediction target date are X1, the actual power at 11:00 pm on a certain past day is compared. Load data and actual heat load data are Y1, and each hour's worth of data for 6 hours is applied to the above formula 1, and actual power load data and actual heat load data in the time zone of “midnight” the day before the prediction target day And a correlation coefficient α between the actual power load data and the actual heat load data in the “midnight” time zone of a certain past day. Such processing is performed for each time zone.

Next, the predicted data creation process (step S30 in FIG. 7) will be described with reference to FIGS.
If three weeks have passed since the fuel cell 1 was installed, the similarity determination threshold UT for the count value UP is set to “3” (steps S31 and S32). If three weeks have not passed since installation, but two weeks have passed, the similarity determination threshold UT is set to “2” (steps S33 and S34). And when two weeks or more have not passed since installation, but when one week or more has passed, the number of data of the actual power load data and the actual heat load data stored in the storage unit 63 is small. For each of the time periods, the predicted power load data value (predicted power load data and predicted heat load data) is obtained by averaging the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for one week prior to the prediction target date, When it has not been installed for more than a week, the actual energy load data and the actual heat load data from the date of installation until the day before the prediction target date are averaged to calculate the predicted energy load data value (predicted power load) Data and predicted heat load data) (steps S35, S36, S37).

  Then, for each of the time zones (time = n) (n: 1 to 4) 7 days before the prediction target date, the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory corresponding to the time zone is similar to the above. If it is equal to or higher than the threshold value for determination UT, the reliability is high as data used for prediction rather than peculiar data, and therefore 7 days before the reference time is set as the reference date (steps S38 and S39). In this case, the same time zone 7 days before the prediction target day corresponds to the reference unit period.

  However, for each time zone 7 days before the prediction target date, if the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory corresponding to that time zone is not equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value UT, the prediction target date It is determined whether the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory corresponding to the time zone 14 days before is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value UT, and the count value UP is equal to the similarity determination threshold value. If it is equal to or greater than UT, the reference date is 14 days before the time zone (steps S40 and S41). In this case, the same time zone 14 days before the prediction target date corresponds to the reference unit period.

That is, when the actual power load data and the actual heat load data seven days before the prediction target day are not appropriate as the reference data for the time zone of the prediction target day, each time before the prediction target day 14 days (two weeks) It is determined whether the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for the belt are appropriate as reference data for the prediction target date.
Accordingly, in this embodiment, 7 days before and 14 days before the prediction target date are determined as a plurality of reference days, and whether or not the count value UP in steps S38 and S40 is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value UT. The determination corresponds to a process of determining whether or not the similarity relationship with respect to a plurality of past days among the plurality of reference days is high.

  If the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory corresponding to the time zone 14 days before the prediction target date is not equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value UT, both the data 7 days and 14 days ago are predicted. The reliability as the data used for the calculation is low. In this case, the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for one week before the prediction target date are averaged to calculate the predicted energy load data value (predicted power load data). And predicted heat load data) (step S36).

  The process for setting the reference date as described above is performed for each of the four time zones of the prediction target day (steps S42 and S43). Then, when the process for setting the reference date for the time zone for one day is completed, each of the four time zones of the day is stored for 20 days by day and time zone excluding the reference date. With respect to the actual power load data and the actual heat load data of the same time period, a correlation coefficient α between the actual power load data and the actual heat load data of the time period set as the reference date is obtained (step S44, S45). That is, for each of the four time zones (time = n) (n: 1 to 4), the correlation coefficient α is obtained for each of a plurality of days (day = m) (m: 1 to 20). Therefore, here, the data for 20 days by day / time zone excluding the reference date is a discrimination target for discriminating the similarity.

  Of the actual power load data and the actual heat load data stored for 20 days by day / time zone, the correlation coefficient α is equal to or greater than the set value (0.7), and If the count value UP stored in the prediction source data availability determination memory for each time zone is equal to or greater than the similarity determination threshold value UT, the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for that time zone on that day are used as the prediction source data candidates. (Steps S46 and S47). Then, the time zone on that day corresponds to the unit period for creating prediction data.

In other words, among the time zones in which the correlation coefficient α is determined to be greater than or equal to the set value (0.7), the time zone in which the count value UP is determined to be greater than or equal to the similarity determination threshold UT is selected. Thus, the predicted power load data and the predicted heat load data are obtained using the time period.
That is, in the time zone as a plurality of unit periods for generating prediction data in which it is determined in step S46 that the correlation coefficient α is greater than or equal to a set value (0.7), the count value UP is A prediction power load is selected by selecting a time period as a unit period for creating prediction data that is determined to be equal to or higher than the similarity determination threshold UT and determined to have a high similarity relationship with a plurality of past unit periods to be determined. Data and predicted heat load data will be obtained.

  The process for obtaining the correlation coefficient α and the process for determining the similarity relationship for a plurality of past unit periods based on the correlation coefficient α are sequentially and repeatedly executed for 20 days stored for each day / time zone. (Steps S48 and S49) When the above processing for 20 days is completed for one of the four time zones of the day, the candidate date, which is the candidate date of the prediction source data, is determined to be similar. If the threshold value UT is greater than or equal to the threshold value UT, the predicted power load data (predicted power load data and predicted heat load data) is obtained by averaging the actual power load data and the actual heat load data in the time period of each of the plurality of candidate days. ) Is obtained (steps S50 and S51).

  In the time zone of each of the plurality of candidate days, there are six data for each unit time (1 hour) as the actual power load data and the actual heat load data. In the averaging process, The average value is calculated for each unit time corresponding to the same time. That is, the predicted power load data and the predicted heat load data actually include a plurality of data for each unit time.

  As shown in FIG. 3, the storage unit 63 stores data D2, D3,. And, for example, when the prediction unit date is 7 days before the reference unit period, the correlation coefficient α with the data D7 7 days ago is the set value (0.7) or more, for example, D1, D2, D6 , D14, the average value of the data D1, D2, D6, D14 is obtained.

  In the averaging process, only the actual power load data and the actual heat load data in the unit period in which the similarity is equal to or greater than the set similarity, that is, the time zone in which the correlation coefficient α is equal to or greater than the set value (0.7). However, instead of such a configuration, the actual power load data and actual heat load data in the time zone in which the correlation coefficient α is equal to or greater than the set value (0.7) and the same time zone in the reference date It can also be set as the structure which calculates | requires prediction electric power load data and prediction heat load data by the average process of the performance electric power load data of (reference unit period), and performance heat load data. In the example shown in FIG. 3, the average value is obtained by adding the data D7 to the data D1, D2, D6, and D14.

  Next, in step S <b> 1 b of FIG. 6, the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 reads the temporary operation pattern data of the fuel cell 1 stored in the storage unit 63. As shown in FIG. 11, the temporary operation pattern is a pattern in which the fuel cell 1 operates once in a planned operation target period (24 hours in the present embodiment). For example, pattern 1 (start-up time is 0:00 am, stop time is 1:00 am) that activates only the period from midnight to 1:00 am (time zone “1”), or the time from midnight to 2:00 am Pattern 2 for operating only the time zone (time zone “1” and “2”) (start time is midnight, stop time is 2:00 am), time zone from midnight to 3 am (time zone “1”) , “2” and “3”) are operated only in a pattern 3... And a pattern 24 is operated in a time zone from midnight to 12:00 pm (time zones “1” to “24”). In addition, as a pattern for starting operation from a time from 1 am to 2 am (time zone “2”), a pattern 25 in which only this time zone “2” is operated, a time zone from 1 am to 3 am ( Pattern 26 for operating time zones “2” and “3”) There are 23 types of patterns 47 for operating the time zone from 1 am to 12:00 (time zones “2” to “24”). Furthermore, there are 22 types of patterns 48 to 69 as the patterns to start operation from the time zone from 2 am to 3 am (time zone “3”). The time zone from 3 am to 4 am (time zone) There are 21 types of patterns 70 to 90 as the patterns to start operation from “4”). Thus, the operation starts from the time zone from 23:00 pm to 24:00 pm at the end of the day (time zone “24”). There is one type of pattern 300 to be used. Thus, there are 300 types of temporary operation patterns from pattern 1 to pattern 300.

  Accordingly, when the temporary operation pattern reading unit 53 reads the first pattern 1 in step S1b of FIG. 6, the predicted energy reduction amount calculating unit 54 in step S1c, the fuel cell according to the read pattern 1 of the temporary operation pattern. The predicted energy reduction amount when 1 is temporarily operated is calculated. That is, as shown in FIG. 4C, the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 calculates the predicted energy reduction amount when the fuel cell 1 is temporarily operated in the main operation so as to cover the predicted power load. In this embodiment, the rated power output of the fuel cell 1 is set to 1000 W and the minimum power output is set to 300 W. Therefore, when the predicted power load is 1000 W or more, the predicted power output in the temporary operation pattern is 1000 W, and the predicted power output is 1000 W. When the power load is 300 W or less, the predicted power generation output in the temporary operation pattern is set to 300 W.

  Specifically, in the case of the first pattern 1 of the temporary operation pattern, as shown in FIG. 12, the fuel cell 1 is operated at 500 W in the time zone “1”, and the predicted power load is covered by this power generation output. It becomes like this. By this operation, the fuel cell 1 generates a predicted heat output of 2303 kJ, and this predicted heat output is stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 of the hot water storage unit 4, and the initial hot water storage heat storage stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is performed. The predicted heat output generated in the amount (for example, 8374 kJ) and the time zone “1” is consumed in the predicted hot water supply heat load (for example, 27717 kJ) generated in the time zone “9”, and is insufficient. , 18259 kJ) will be covered by the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler J. In this embodiment, the heat dissipation loss during the period stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is taken into account, and this heat dissipation loss is shown in the column of the hot water storage heat dissipation amount, and the predicted tank heat storage amount is reduced by the heat dissipation loss with time. It becomes like this. In such a case, as for the predicted energy amount (E2), the predicted power load in the time zone “1” is covered by the operation of the fuel cell 1, and the predicted power load from the time zone “2” to the time zone “24” is commercial. Covered by power purchase from grid 7. Further, for a part of the predicted hot water supply thermal load in the time zone “9” (for example, only the predicted hot water supply thermal load is generated in the time zone “9” within the planned operation target period), for example, 9458 kJ, the hot water storage tank 2 About the remaining portion of this predicted hot water supply load, for example, 18259 kJ, for example, the amount of heat stored in advance at a predetermined time and the heat output generated by the operation of the fuel cell 1 in the time zone “1”. It will be covered by the operation of the auxiliary heating boiler J. By applying these to the above formula (3), the predicted energy amount (E2) when the fuel cell 1 is operated is calculated, and the predicted energy amount in the temporary operation pattern 1 is calculated using this predicted energy amount (E2). When the reduction amount is calculated, it becomes 2093 kJ as shown in FIG.

  When the predicted energy reduction amount calculation unit 54 calculates the predicted energy reduction amount in pattern 1 of the temporary operation pattern as described above, the process proceeds to step S1d in FIG. 6 to read out all patterns of the temporary operation pattern. Step S1b and step S1c are repeated by the same method until the reading of all patterns and the calculation of the predicted energy reduction amount in the temporary operation pattern are completed.

For example, when the predicted energy reduction amount is calculated for the first (second, third,...) Pattern 1 (pattern 2, 3,...) Of the temporary operation pattern, the second The second (third, fourth,...) Pattern 2 (patterns 3, 4...) Is read out, and the predicted energy reduction in the read pattern 2 (patterns 3, 4,...) Is performed. The quantity calculation is performed in the same manner as described above.
In the case of the second pattern 2 of the temporary operation pattern, as shown in FIG. 13, the predicted energy amount (E2) is covered by the operation of the fuel cell 1 with the predicted power loads in the time zones “1” and “2”. The predicted power load from the time zone “3” to the time zone “24” is covered by power purchase from the commercial system 12. Further, a part of the predicted hot water supply heat load in the time zone “9”, for example, 12343 kJ, is covered by the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2, and the remaining part of this predicted hot water supply load, for example, 15374 kJ is operated by the auxiliary heating boiler J. The predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 2512 kJ as shown in FIG.
In the case of the 24th pattern 24 of the temporary operation pattern, the result is as shown in FIG. 14, and the predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 1256 kJ, and in the case of the 25th pattern 25 of the temporary operation pattern, FIG. The predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 2303 kJ, and in the case of the last pattern 300 of the temporary operation pattern, it is as shown in FIG. 16, and the predicted energy reduction amount at this time is 837 kJ.

  When the predicted energy reduction amount for all the temporary operation patterns is calculated as described above, the maximum predicted energy reduction amount selection unit 55 in step S1e of FIG. 6 calculates the predicted energy reduction calculated for each temporary operation pattern. Select the largest value of the quantities. Next, in step S <b> 1 f, the temporary operation time zone setting unit 56 sets an operation time zone corresponding to the temporary operation pattern that is the predicted maximum energy reduction amount selected as the temporary operation time zone, and the temporary operation time zone. Is stored in the storage unit 63.

  After the temporary operation time zone is set as described above, the process proceeds to step S2 in FIG. 5, and the predicted heat output integration unit 57 covers the fuel cell 1 with the predicted power load according to the selection pattern of the temporary operation pattern. The predicted heat output generated when the main operation is performed, in other words, the predicted hot water storage amount stored as hot water in the hot water storage tank 2 is integrated, and the integrated value of the predicted heat output is stored in the storage unit 63.

  After that, when it is determined in step S3 of FIG. 5 that the start time of the set temporary operation time zone has been reached, the process proceeds from step S3 to step S4, and the operation control unit 62 generates an operation signal and performs this operation. The fuel cell 1 is operated based on the signal. As a result, the power generated by the fuel cell 1 is consumed by the power load device 9 (when surplus power is generated, it is converted into heat by the electric heater 12 and stored as warm water), and the heat recovered from the fuel cell 1 is warm water. Is stored in the hot water storage unit 4. This operation of the fuel cell 1 is performed by using the current power load actually consumed by the power load device 9 (as this current power load, an average power load up to a predetermined time, for example, 5 minutes before the present time can be used). This is done by operating the main electric power to cover. That is, in step S5, the current power load calculation unit 58 calculates the current power load, and in step S6, the power generation output setting unit 59 makes the power generation output equal to the current power load (or somewhat smaller than the current power load). The power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is set as follows. For example, when the current power load is 500 W, the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is set to 500 W (or 460 W), and in this way, the fuel cell 1 is main-operated to cover the current power load. In step S7, the current heat output integration unit 60 integrates the current heat output actually generated by the operation of the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode from the start of the operation.

  As described above, by operating the fuel cell 1 in the planned operation mode as described above, the operation can be stopped once per 24 hours (one day), which is the planned operation target period. Thus, it is possible to avoid frequent stoppages.

  However, because there are visitors who originally have a family of four, there are seven homes on the day, or because Monday is a national holiday, we spend Monday in the same lifestyle pattern as a normal holiday. In some cases, there are special days when the consumer's lifestyle pattern is different from usual, such as when he / she goes out and is absent. And it is only a judgment whether the life pattern is peculiar than usual, that is, a judgment whether the excess or deficiency of heat can occur when the fuel cell 1 is operated in the planned operation mode. For example, it can be done almost accurately by the customer himself.

Therefore, in the energy supply system of the present embodiment, execution permission / rejection related information receiving means for receiving execution permission / relevance related information related to execution permission / rejection of the planned operation mode, and execution permission / rejection of the planned operation mode based on the execution permission / rejection related information. The planned operation determination unit 64 is provided, and as will be described later, when the determination result of the planned operation determination unit 64 is negative in execution of the planned operation mode, the control unit 5 is in the middle of the planned operation target period. Thus, control is performed so that the fuel cell 1 is operated in a preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode. Details of the preliminary operation mode will be described later.
In the present embodiment, examples of the execution permission / rejection related information receiving means include a bath hot water reservation switch 36 and a specific date switch 37 described later.

First, execution permission-related information can be received by the bath hot water reservation switch 36, that is, the planned operation determination unit 64 performs the above operation based on the input status of the bath hot water reservation switch until the set time within the planned operation target period. The fact that it is possible to determine whether or not to execute the planned operation mode will be described.
As described above, the storage unit 63 stores the reservation execution time data of the time when the reservation input using the bath hot water reservation switch 36 is performed. Based on the information stored in the storage unit 63, the planned operation determination unit 64 is a normal life pattern in which the customer makes a reservation input of the bath hot water execution time at any time within the planned operation target period. For example, it is possible to use information indicating that it is a normal life pattern that the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is performed in the morning. Therefore, the planned operation determination unit 64, when the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time using the bath hot water reservation switch 36 is not performed by the set time within the planned operation target period, It is determined that the life pattern is different from the normal one, and a determination result of execution denial of the planned operation mode is issued.

  For example, the planned operation determination unit 64 has a normal life that the time when the reservation input of the past bath hot water reservation switch 36 stored in the storage unit 63 is performed is statistically performed by 12:00 am In the case of a pattern, when reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is performed by 12:00 am, the execution permission of the planned operation mode is determined. On the other hand, if the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is not performed by 12:00 am, the execution negative determination of the planned operation mode is made.

Next, it will be described that the specific date switch 37 can accept execution permission / rejection related information.
In the present embodiment, the specific day switch 37 recognizes when the consumer recognizes that the consumer's daily life pattern (predicted power load pattern and thermal load pattern) is different from the normal life pattern. It is provided to indicate the intention. For example, the consumer may turn on the specific day switch 37 before going out.
Therefore, when the specific day switch 37 is turned on, the planned operation determination unit 64 determines that an intention to deny execution of the planned operation mode by the consumer has been performed at that time, and execution of the planned operation mode is denied. Make a decision. On the other hand, the planned operation determination unit 64 does not make a negative determination of execution of the planned operation mode unless the specific day switch 37 is turned on.

  As described above, in step S8 in FIG. 5, the planned operation determination unit 64 adds the execution permission / rejection related information received by the execution permission / rejection related information receiving means (the bath hot water reservation switch 37 and the special day switch 37) as described above. Based on the planned operation determination process based on this, a determination result of whether or not the planned operation mode currently being executed can be executed is output. Next, in step S9, the operation control unit 62 of the control means 5 verifies the determination result of the planned operation determination unit 64 in step S8, and when the determination result is negative execution of the planned operation mode, the process proceeds to step S10. Thus, the power generation output setting process to be described later is executed to execute a preliminary operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is operated in an unplanned state different from the planned operation mode. In step S15, it is determined whether or not a predetermined time (start time of the planned operation target period) for recalculating the predicted energy reduction amount by all the temporary operation patterns, for example, 0:00, is reached. Until the value reaches the step S10, the fuel cell 1 is operated in the preliminary operation mode. If it is determined in step S15 that the predetermined time has been reached, the process returns to the beginning of the control flow.

  On the other hand, when the determination result of the planned operation determination unit 64 is that the execution of the planned operation mode is permitted in step S9, the operation control unit 62 proceeds to step S11. That is, the fuel cell 1 continues to be operated in the planned operation mode.

  In step S <b> 11, the heat output comparing unit 61 compares the predicted integrated heat output by the predicted heat output integrating unit 57 with the current integrated heat output by the current heat output integrating unit 60. When the current integrated heat output is smaller than the predicted integrated heat output, the process proceeds to step S12, where it is determined whether or not the end time of the set temporary operation time zone has been reached, and the process returns to step S5 until this end time is reached. Thus, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is continued. If it is determined in step S12 that this end time has been reached, the process proceeds to step S13, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is stopped, and the process proceeds to step S14.

  On the other hand, in step S11, when the current integrated heat output becomes equal to or higher than the predicted integrated heat output due to the operation of the fuel cell 1, the process proceeds to step S13, and the energy saving operation of the fuel cell 1 for obtaining a predetermined heat output is performed. As a result, the operation of the fuel cell 1 is stopped. In step S14, it is determined whether or not the predetermined time (start time of the planned operation target period) has been reached. If it is determined that the predetermined time has been reached, the process returns to the beginning of the control flow shown in FIG. To do.

Next, the preliminary operation mode will be described.
In the present embodiment, as the preliminary operation mode, an operation mode in which the fuel cell 1 is operated so as to cover the current power load currently required in the power load device 9, that is, a so-called main operation mode can be employed. When the fuel cell 1 is operated in the main operation mode, at least the power generation output of the fuel cell 1 is substantially equal to the actual power load, so that a large power surplus does not occur. As a result, even if the consumer's life pattern is different from normal, it is possible to suppress a decrease in energy efficiency with respect to power supply.

Further, the determination result by the planned operation determination unit 64 regarding the execution permission / rejection related information received from the consumer is negative execution of the planned operation mode, and as a result, the operation control unit 62 operates the fuel cell 1 in the preliminary operation mode. In step S1a of FIG. 6, the predicted power load calculation unit 51 and the predicted heat load calculation unit 52 collect the results collected during the planned operation target period during which the fuel cell 1 is operated in the preliminary operation mode. It is configured to execute the process of predicting the predicted thermal load and the predicted power load from the time-series actual heat load data and the time-series actual power load data excluding the heat load data and the actual power load data. Yes.
That is, in the present embodiment, the predicted power load calculation unit 51 and the predicted heat load calculation unit 52 use the actual power load data and the actual heat load data when the preliminary operation mode is executed because the life pattern is irregular, The latest past 21 days of actual power load data and actual heat load data illustrated in FIG. 3 are not stored in the storage unit 63 or stored, but not used.
As a result, the predicted heat load data and the predicted power load data predicted by the predicted power load calculation unit 51 and the predicted heat load calculation unit 52 are collected when the lifestyle patterns related to the heat consumption and power consumption of consumers are regular. Therefore, the reliability of the predicted thermal load data and the predicted power load data can be ensured based on the predicted thermal load data and the actual power load data.

<Another embodiment>
<1>
In the above embodiment, the predicted power load calculation unit 51 and the predicted heat load calculation unit 52 are based on the actual power load data and the actual heat load data for the past 21 days as shown in FIG. The example in which the predicted power load data and the predicted heat load data are predicted by the method as shown in the flowchart of FIG. 6 has been described. However, the predicted power load data and the predicted heat load data may be predicted by other methods.

<2>
In the above-described embodiment, the case where the fuel cell is used as the combined heat and power supply apparatus has been described.

<3>
In the above embodiment, the case where the planned operation target period is 24 hours from 0:00 to 24:00 has been described. For example, when the planned operation target period is 24 hours from 2:00 am to 2:00 am on the next day Alternatively, it may be modified when the planned operation target period is 48 hours from 0:00.

<4>
In the said embodiment, although one example was shown as a preliminary operation mode different from the said plan operation, you may perform another operation mode as a preliminary operation mode. For example, another operation mode such as a preliminary operation mode in which a constant output operation at 25% or the like of the rated output of the fuel cell 1 is continuously or intermittently performed may be executed.

<5>
In the above embodiment, the time period for calculating the predicted power load and the predicted heat load is 1 hour, and the predicted power load and the predicted heat load are calculated in units of one hour. An appropriate time unit such as a time unit can also be set.

<6>
In the above-described embodiment, the case where the planned operation determination unit 64 makes a negative determination of execution of the planned operation mode when the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is not performed by the set time of 12:00 am will be described. However, the set time can be changed as appropriate. For example, the planned operation determination unit 64 may be modified to issue a negative determination of execution of the planned operation mode when the reservation input of the bath hot water execution time is not performed by 2 pm.

  The energy supply system of the present invention can suppress a decrease in energy efficiency by operating a combined heat and power supply device in a preliminary operation mode different from the original planned operation mode when the consumer's life pattern is not regular. Applicable to cogeneration system.

Schematic configuration diagram of energy supply system Control block diagram of energy supply system The figure which shows the data memorize | stored in a memory | storage part Diagram for explaining predicted power load and predicted hot water supply heat load Flow chart showing control of energy supply system Flow chart showing setting control of temporary operation time zone Flow chart showing predicted load calculation processing control Flow chart showing data judgment processing Flow chart showing prediction data creation processing Flow chart showing prediction data creation processing Diagram showing various patterns of temporary operation pattern The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 1st pattern 1 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 2nd pattern 2 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 24th pattern 24 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 25th pattern 25 of a temporary driving pattern. The figure for demonstrating the calculation of the prediction energy reduction amount in the 300th pattern 300 of a temporary driving pattern.

Explanation of symbols

1 Fuel cell (cogeneration device)
5 Control means 36 Bath hot water reservation switch (Execution permission / rejection related information acceptance means)
37 Singular day switch (execution permission related information receiving means)
64 Planned operation judgment part

Claims (6)

Time-series prediction within the planned operation target period that is predicted based on the combined heat and power system that generates heat and electric power, and the time-series actual heat load data and time-series actual power load data by the customer An energy supply system provided with a control means for executing a planned operation mode for performing a planned operation of the combined heat and power unit based on an electric power load and a time-series predicted heat load,
Execution permission / relevance related information receiving means for receiving execution permission / relevance related information related to execution permission / rejection of the planned operation mode from the consumer;
A planned operation determination unit for determining whether to execute the planned operation mode based on the execution permission / inhibition related information,
When the determination result of the planned operation determination unit is negative in execution of the planned operation mode, the control means is in the preliminary operation mode different from the planned operation mode in the middle of the planned operation target period. An energy supply system configured to operate the vehicle.   2. The energy supply system according to claim 1, wherein the preliminary operation mode is an operation mode in which the cogeneration apparatus is operated so as to cover a currently requested current power load. 2. The energy supply system according to claim 1, wherein the preliminary operation mode is an operation mode in which a constant output operation of the cogeneration apparatus is continuously or intermittently executed. The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the execution permission / rejection related information receiving unit is an execution denial switch that accepts execution denial of the planned operation mode from the customer. Bath hot water filling means is provided for bathing the bathtub with hot water stored in a hot water storage device that stores hot water with heat generated by the combined heat and power supply device,
The execution permission / rejection related information receiving means has a bath hot water reservation switch for receiving a reservation input of a bath hot water execution time to the bathtub,
The said planned operation determination part is comprised so that execution permission of the said planned operation mode may be determined based on the input condition of the said bath hot water reservation switch until the set time in the said planned operation object period. 5. The energy supply system according to any one of 4. The control means is a time-series actual heat excluding the actual heat load data and the actual power load data collected during the planned operation target period in which the operation of the cogeneration device is performed in the preliminary operation mode. The energy supply system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, configured to predict the predicted thermal load and the predicted power load from load data and time-series actual power load data.

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