JP4220486B2 - Earthquake Tsunami Prediction Monitoring System and Earthquake Tsunami Prediction Monitoring Method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an earthquake and tsunami prediction actual state monitoring apparatus and an earthquake and tsunami prediction actual state monitoring method for monitoring prediction information and actual state information about earthquakes and tsunamis.

  Technology that transmits earthquake occurrence information beyond the speed of seismic waves by making full use of the latest earthquake engineering technology, information communication technology, computer technology, etc. has entered the practical stage. Information that transmits the occurrence of earthquakes beyond such seismic waves is called real-time earthquake information or nowcast earthquake information, and research is ongoing.

  According to this real-time earthquake information, for example, assuming a Tokai earthquake, it is possible to receive information that an earthquake wave arrives about 50 seconds before the main motion in Tokyo.

As a conventional means for providing earthquake information, a technique for displaying a predicted value of a seismic wave using real-time earthquake information is disclosed (for example, see Patent Document 1).
JP 2003-66152 A Takeo Watanabe "Japanese Tsunami Guide (2nd Edition)" (The University of Tokyo Press)

  The information providing system using real-time earthquake information as described above has been finally put into practical use in recent years, and there is no actual result with respect to its use. Therefore, although it is a technically excellent system, it has been pointed out that it is not always possible to provide easy-to-understand information from the viewpoint of convenience on the use side.

  On the other hand, a system for predicting a tsunami in real time has also existed in the past. A typical example of such a tsunami prediction system assumes a fault where a rupture will occur in advance, calculates how much tsunami will arrive in each region in this case, and accumulates the results in a database. Using this accumulated database, when an earthquake actually occurs, it is a system that approximately obtains the predicted value of the tsunami for the occurred earthquake based on the calculated latitude, longitude, depth, and magnitude.

  However, a device that links earthquakes and tsunamis and provides predicted values and actual values for earthquakes and tsunamis in an easy-to-understand manner has not been presented.

  That is, there is no monitoring device that can display real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information in an integrated manner. For earthquakes and tsunamis, the magnitude of the earthquake (seismic intensity) and the tsunami wave height are An intuitive and easy-to-understand display was not always provided.

  The real-time earthquake information and the real-time tsunami information are information on future seismic waves and tsunamis. Therefore, it is important to grasp the time course in these pieces of information. However, in the case of a conventional monitoring device, an intuitive and easy-to-understand display about the time course of seismic waves and tsunamis has not necessarily been provided.

  On the other hand, the disaster prevention system is used when a disaster actually occurs. However, whether a user is proficient in the disaster prevention system depends on how the disaster prevention system has been used during normal times. Therefore, it is important to practice repeatedly using the disaster prevention system repeatedly in training. However, it cannot be said that conventional seismic tsunami monitoring devices have sufficient functions that can be used during training.

  In general, disaster prevention drills are often carried out on a specific date. For example, they are often set on the day of disaster prevention on September 1 or the day of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake on January 17. However, since real disasters are difficult to predict, it is more common to be surprised. Therefore, practically, training that is unexpected rather than training with a predetermined date can be the original training. However, in conventional disaster prevention drills, there was no system that positively determined the date and time of training based on a “thinking of surprise”.

  The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-described circumstances, and links information on earthquakes and tsunamis that are expected to occur in association with them, making it easy to understand the predicted values and actual values of each earthquake and tsunami. An object of the present invention is to provide a seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring device and a seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring method to be provided.

  In order to solve the above-described problems, the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus of the present invention is based on the real-time earthquake information input unit that receives and transmits real-time earthquake information faster than the earthquake wave, and the real-time earthquake information. A real-time earthquake processing unit that calculates the predicted earthquake arrival time and predicted seismic intensity scale at the target point before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point, and whether or not a tsunami has arrived at the target point based on the real-time earthquake information A real-time tsunami processing unit that calculates a predicted tsunami arrival time and a predicted tsunami wave height, a live system information input unit that inputs measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height values or actual data of earthquakes and tsunamis measured at the target point, and the real time Information on the earthquake and tsunami prediction system obtained by the earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit Is characterized in that an information output unit that 況系 by comparing a commentary based information earthquake and tsunami obtained by the information processing unit outputs.

  In addition, in order to solve the above-described problems, the seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring method of the present invention inputs real-time earthquake information to the real-time earthquake information input unit faster than the seismic wave, and before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point. A predicted earthquake arrival time and a predicted seismic intensity scale at the destination point are calculated by a real-time earthquake processing unit based on the real-time earthquake information, and whether or not a tsunami has arrived at the destination point, a predicted tsunami arrival time, and a predicted tsunami wave height, Is calculated by the real-time tsunami processing unit based on the real-time earthquake information, and the measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height value measured at the target point or the actual data of the earthquake and tsunami are input to the actual system information input unit, and the real-time information is input. Earthquake and tsunami prediction system information obtained from the earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit and actual information processing Is a method which is characterized in that by comparing the information of the play-by-play system of the earthquake and tsunami, which was determined to output at.

  Furthermore, in order to solve the above-described problem, the seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus of the present invention is provided with a real-time earthquake information input unit to which earthquake measurement information measured by a seismometer with an S wave arrival prediction function is input, and the earthquake A real-time seismic processing unit that calculates a predicted earthquake arrival time and a predicted seismic intensity scale at the target point before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point based on the measurement information, and the target point based on the earthquake measurement information A real-time tsunami processing unit that calculates the presence or absence of a tsunami in Japan, the predicted tsunami arrival time and the predicted tsunami wave height, and a live system that inputs measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height values or actual data of earthquakes and tsunamis measured at the target point Information input section, earthquake and tsunami prediction system information obtained from the real-time earthquake processing section and the real-time tsunami processing section, and actual situation information Seismic obtained in processing unit and a commentary based information tsunami contrasted is obtained and an information output unit for outputting.

  According to the seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus and seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring method of the present invention, real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information are integrated, and are monitored and displayed in an integrated manner. It is possible to predict and grasp the situation visually.

  In addition, information on the magnitude and intensity of earthquakes and tsunamis, and information on tsunami wave heights are provided in an intuitive and easy-to-understand display, and real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information are displayed on the same screen, so the information can be viewed visually. It is possible to grasp accurately.

  In addition, since it has a function to set each setting value of earthquake information and tsunami information for training, more effective training using an actual disaster prevention system is possible.

  In the seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus of the present invention, real-time earthquake information is input to the real-time earthquake information input unit after being transmitted faster than the seismic wave, and based on this real-time earthquake information, the predicted earthquake arrival time and prediction at the destination point The seismic intensity level is processed by the real-time seismic processing unit before the main motion reaches the target point. On the other hand, based on real-time earthquake information, the presence / absence of a tsunami at the target point, the predicted tsunami arrival time, and the predicted tsunami wave height are calculated by the real-time tsunami processing unit.

  Moreover, the measured seismic intensity measured by the measuring seismometer at the target point and the tsunami wave height value observed by the tsunami observation apparatus are input to the live system information input unit. Alternatively, actual data on earthquakes and tsunamis distributed from external communication media may be input. In this way, the information output unit includes the earthquake and tsunami prediction system data obtained by the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit, and the actual system data of the earthquake and tsunami obtained from actual measurement or information distributed from the outside. And output to the display device.

  Furthermore, the seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus of the present invention displays real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information on the same screen, and the seismic intensity level of the earthquake that is about to reach by the shape, color and blinking of the symbol display on the screen. It is also possible to display and compare the predicted seismic intensity and the actual seismic intensity. In addition, the presence or absence of a tsunami associated with the earthquake that occurred is displayed, and when it is predicted that a tsunami will occur, the predicted wave height of the tsunami is expressed by the color, shape, and blinking of the symbol display, and the predicted wave height and actual wave height of the tsunami And are displayed in contrast.

  Since the seismic tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring apparatus provided in this way has a function of displaying real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information on the same screen, it is possible to grasp information accurately visually.

  In addition, real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information are displayed on the same screen so that the prediction system information and the actual system display are contrasted, and where the current time is located relative to the predicted value and the actual value You may provide so that it may be displayed. By setting it as such a structure, the position of the present | current time with respect to a predicted value and an actual value can be shown clearly.

  On the other hand, in the seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus of the present invention, a keyboard input unit for inputting training-related setting values and a training-related setting processing unit for processing setting values for training related to earthquakes and tsunamis are provided and set. The training-related set values are transmitted to the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit, and the real-time earthquake information for training and the real-time tsunami information for training are calculated and output to the display device.

  The earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus is provided so that the frequency, time zone, day of the week, etc. for executing the unexpected exercise can be set, and the due date of the unexpected exercise is set using a random number based on this condition. With this configuration, more effective training is realized.

  After setting the due date for the unexpected training, the information regarding the setting may be sent to one or more destinations set in advance by e-mail.

  In addition, using this e-mail output unit, an e-mail in which prediction information about actual earthquakes and tsunamis is compared with actual information is sent to one or more preset destinations. It may be provided as follows.

  A specific embodiment of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram schematically showing a first embodiment of a seismic / tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring apparatus according to the present invention. The earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device 1 includes an earthquake information input unit 2, a standard time input / processing unit 3, an actual system information input unit 4, and a keyboard input unit 5, and inputs information from these input units. Information processing unit 6, and an information output unit 7 and an e-mail output unit 8 that output information from the information processing unit 6. A data storage unit 9 is provided in addition to the information processing unit 6.

  In addition, the information processing unit 6 includes a real-time earthquake processing unit 13, a real-time tsunami processing unit 14, a live system information processing unit 15, and a training relation setting processing unit 16. A display device 17 is connected to the information output unit 7, and the e-mail output unit 8 is connected to an external mail terminal 19 such as a mobile phone, a wristwatch, and a mobile terminal via the Internet 18. The information output unit 7 compares the prediction system 7a to which the prediction information is input, the actual system 7b to which the actual condition information is input, and the information of the prediction system 7a and the actual condition system 7b and outputs the display output to the display device 17. Part 7c.

  The information processing unit 6 of the earthquake / tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring apparatus 1 is roughly composed of three parts. That is, it is composed of parts 13 and 14 for processing prediction information, a part 15 for processing actual information, and a part 16 for setting training relations and processing output of e-mail. Below, these three components will be described individually.

  The parts 13 and 14 for processing the prediction system information are composed of an earthquake-related part and a tsunami-related part.

  First, the earthquake-related part will be described.

  The real-time earthquake information distributed from the external real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 is input to the real-time earthquake information input unit 2 via the communication medium 26 and sent to the real-time earthquake processing unit 13. The real-time earthquake processing unit 13 obtains the time to reach the main motion at the target point and the predicted seismic intensity by calculation from the input real-time earthquake information. The time to reach the main motion is the location of the seismic tsunami prediction live monitoring device 1 using the location (latitude / longitude / depth) of the epicenter based on real-time earthquake information distributed from the Japan Meteorological Agency or National Institute of Disaster Science and Technology ( It is calculated by dividing the distance to the target point by the velocity of the main motion (S wave). The predicted seismic intensity is calculated from the distance to the epicenter and the amplification factor of the ground.

  As an example of the earthquake model estimation, an earthquake model estimation method using a single observation point, which is put into practical use by Yuredas (registered trademark) or the like, is used. Specifically, the magnitude of the earthquake and the distance to the epicenter and the direction to the epicenter can be calculated by analyzing the initial tremor (P wave) waveform for several seconds.

  On the other hand, for the tsunami-related part, the real-time tsunami processing unit 14 uses the seismic latitude, longitude, and depth calculated by the real-time seismic processing unit 13 to determine whether or not there is a tsunami, the time until the tsunami arrives, and the scale of the tsunami calculate.

  The calculated prediction information is input to the prediction system 7a in the information output unit 7 and output to the display device 17 through the display output unit 7c.

  Next, a part for processing live information will be described.

  The part that processes the live system information includes a measurement seismometer 35 that measures the seismic intensity of the earthquake, a tsunami observation device 36 that observes the tsunami wave height, and a live system information input unit that inputs each value of these measuring instruments. 4 is provided.

  In addition, the distribution from the external earthquake tsunami actual data distribution unit 45 is also input to the actual information input unit 4 via the communication medium 46. The actual information is processed by the actual information processing unit 15, and the location information, magnitude, and seismic intensity at the target point as the actual values of the earthquake are input to the actual system 7b of the information output unit 7 for display output. The data is output to the display device 17 via the unit 7c.

  Next, a description will be given of a part for performing training-related setting and processing output of e-mail.

  First, setting values related to training are input from the keyboard 55. The input set value is set by the training-related setting processing unit 16 and transmitted to the real-time earthquake processing unit 13 and the real-time tsunami processing unit 14. The real-time earthquake processing unit 13 and the real-time tsunami processing unit 14 appropriately set training information related to earthquakes and tsunamis based on training-related setting values. With this setting, information is displayed at the time when the training execution time coincides with the actual time, and training relating to earthquakes and tsunamis is performed.

  Further, information processed by the training relationship setting processing unit 16 is output from the e-mail output unit 8 as training related information, and is output to the external mail terminal 19 via the Internet 18. When sending an e-mail to a mail terminal (mobile terminal, mobile phone, wristwatch), the “earthquake basic symbol” is sent first, and then the “tsunami basic symbol” is automatically switched and sent.

  The real-time tsunami processing unit 14 of the information processing unit 6 provided in the earthquake tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring device 1 performs the process shown in the flowchart of FIG.

  The real-time tsunami processing unit 14 first determines in step 1 whether or not the “location of the epicenter” in the real-time earthquake information input from the real-time earthquake processing unit 13 is a sea area. It is determined in step 2 whether or not the “location of the epicenter” is a sea area and the magnitude is a required value, for example, 6.5 or more. It is empirically known that a tsunami occurs when an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurs in the sea area.

  Here, the required value of 6.5 is merely an example, and various settings can be considered. In the description of this embodiment, the magnitude of the earthquake is set to 6.5 or more in FIG. Based on the contents of (B). Figure 3 is based on Non-Patent Document 1, Table 1.1 (Non-Patent Document 1) Table 1.1 (Imamura / Iida's Tsunami Scale Class) and Page 38 Figure 2.3 (Tsunami Scale m and Earthquake) (Relationship of magnitude M).

  Figure 3 (A) examines 31 tsunamis that occurred near Japan in the last 100 years, combined with coastal run-up heights near the tsunami source and tide records, FIG. 3 (B) is data showing the relationship between the tsunami scale class m and the earthquake magnitude M. FIG. It is known from FIG. 3 (A) that damage occurs when the tsunami scale class m exceeds 1, and the earthquake magnitude M with the tsunami scale class m of 1 or more is shown in FIG. 3 (B). 5 or more, for example, M≈6.7.

  When the magnitude M in the real-time earthquake information is 6.5 or more in anticipation of safety, “tsunami present” is determined in step 3, and that fact is output to the prediction system 7 a of the information output unit 7. .

  If the “location of the epicenter” in the real-time earthquake information input from the real-time earthquake information input unit 2 is land or if the magnitude of the earthquake is 6.5 or less, “No Tsunami” is judged in Step 4 Is output to the prediction system 7a of the information output unit 7.

  The “tsunami: presence / absence” information from the prediction system 7 a is output to the display device 17 via the display output unit 7 c and displayed on the display device 17.

  In the display output unit 7c, the “tsunami: presence / absence” output is displayed by outputting the “tsunami: presence / absence” information of the prediction system 7a processed by the real-time tsunami processing unit 14 as it is from the display output unit 7c after the occurrence of the earthquake. Although the output is displayed on the display device 17, the Japan Meteorological Agency reports the presence or absence of a tsunami with the target time within 3 minutes after the earthquake, for example within 3 minutes. The data is input from the data distribution unit 45 to the live system information input unit 4 via the communication medium 46, and is transmitted from the input unit 4 to the live system information processing unit 15 for information processing. When the processed “tsunami presence / absence information” is input to the display output unit 7c via the live system 7b, the “tsunami presence information” of the meteorological agency of the live system 7b is the “tsunami: The information is sent to the display device 17 in the form of overwriting the “presence / absence” information and output and displayed on the display device 17.

  That is, the information output unit 7 performs the process shown in the flowchart of FIG.

  Real-time tsunami prediction information is input to the information output unit 17 from the real-time tsunami processing unit 14, and it is determined in step 5 whether or not “tsunami: presence / absence” information of the prediction system 7 a of the real-time tsunami prediction information can be displayed.

  When “tsunami: presence / absence” of the real-time tsunami prediction information can be displayed, the “tsunami: presence / absence” information is transmitted from the real-time earthquake information to the display device 17 as it is from the display output unit 7 c and displayed on the display device 17. (Step 6). On the other hand, in step 7, it is determined whether or not “tsunami presence / absence information” has been issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and when the tsunami presence / absence information has been issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the “tsunami presence / absence information” of the Japan Meteorological Agency is displayed via the live system 7b. It is overwritten and displayed on the output unit 7c.

  When the prediction system 7a cannot display the “tsunami: presence / absence” of the real-time tsunami prediction information or when the meteorological agency does not report the “tsunami presence / absence information” from the actual system 7b, the information is displayed on the display device 17. Is displayed as it is on the display device 17 without switching.

  In the display output unit 7c of the information output unit 7, an example in which “tsunami presence / absence information” of the prediction system 7a is overwritten with “tsunami presence / absence information” from the meteorological agency of the actual system 7c has been described. As shown in FIG. 6, whether the “tsunami presence / absence” display is calculated from real-time earthquake information or output from the Japan Meteorological Agency information may be displayed in an identifiable manner. .

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 6, the “tsunami presence / absence” display on the display device 17 is shown together with the information calculated from the real-time earthquake information and the information calculated from the Japan Meteorological Agency information, and the display time of each is also shown. You may do it.

  Next, standard time processing that is the basis of the operation of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring device 1 will be described.

  The standard time distributed by the external standard time distribution unit 65 is input to the standard time input / processing unit 3 via the communication medium 66 for processing. Here, as the standard time, for example, a clock time of satellite distribution by GPS, a clock time by an NTP (Network Time Protocol) server, a clock time using NHK-FM broadcasting, or the like is used. NTP is a protocol for accurately maintaining the internal clock of a device on a network such as a computer, and an NTP server provides time information to a device such as a computer using this protocol. The NTP server has a built-in atomic clock, receives a signal from a GPS (Global Positioning System) satellite, and has a GPS synchronization type that maintains high time accuracy synchronized with the global standard time.

  Next, the standard time input / processing unit 3 performs processing for synchronizing the input standard time with the internal clock held by the seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device 1. The synchronization method may be, for example, a method in which a certain set period is determined and the synchronization is periodically performed, or a method in which the synchronization is performed when the difference from the standard time reaches a certain time width. After executing the synchronization processing, the standard time is transmitted to the information processing unit 6 and used as a basic value at the time of calculation by the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1. Information exchange in the information processing unit 6 is stored in the data storage unit 9.

  Next, FIG. 7 shows a specific example of an earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition display screen displayed on the display device 17 by the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device 1 of the embodiment.

  FIG. 7 illustrates information on “earthquake occurrence”, “earthquake wave”, and “tsunami” as types of information that can be displayed on the display device 17.

  Here, information on “earthquake occurrence”, “earthquake wave”, and “tsunami” is displayed separately for each type of “forecast” and “actual situation”. In the case of the display example of FIG. 7, a prediction situation is shown in which a seismic wave has arrived and a tsunami will arrive after 1 minute 45 seconds. In this way, the display device 17 compares and displays the actual status of information such as seismic intensity, epicenter, wave height, and prediction information in parallel.

  Next, FIG. 8 shows an example of a screen that is actually displayed on the display device 17 by the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring apparatus 1.

  As shown in FIG. 8, the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1 of the present embodiment can visually grasp the situation of the earthquake and tsunami. The display is unified with the image of traffic signal of road traffic. For example, for earthquakes, a blue circle symbol display 71, which is usually a safe color, is displayed, and an earthquake predicted to have a seismic intensity of 3 or more Each expresses the seismic intensity by the symbol display shape, color and blinking change. For example, seismic intensities 3 and 4 are expressed in yellow warning colors. The triangular symbol display 73 is lit in light yellow to express “seismic intensity 3”. Similarly, the square symbol display 74 is lit in yellow to express “seismic intensity 4”. Seismic intensities 5 and 6 are shown in red danger colors. For example, the pentagon symbol display 75 is lit in pink to express “seismic intensity 5”. The hexagonal symbol display 76 is lit red to express “seismic intensity 6”. The seismic intensity of 7 or more may be displayed as, for example, a polygon of heptagon or more, and illuminated in red to represent seismic intensity of 7 or more. Furthermore, the predicted seismic intensity and the actual seismic intensity are displayed at the bottom of the screen.

  In this way, the display output unit 7 of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring device 1 is connected to the display device 17 and also to a mail terminal (for example, a mobile phone, a wristwatch / portable terminal with a built-in communication terminal) 19 via the Internet 18, The earthquake / tsunami information processed by the information processing unit 6 is transmitted to the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19 via the information output unit 7 and displayed.

Depending on the occurrence of the earthquake / tsunami, the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19
a. Seismic intensity and arrival time display function before the arrival of the seismic wave,
b. A convergence time display function that displays the time until the seismic wave converges,
c. A tsunami presence / absence display function at the time of tsunami presence / absence judgment,
d. It has a tsunami wave height display function when calculating the tsunami wave height value,
Each display function provided in the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19 is selectively switched and displayed sequentially and repeatedly.

  It is known from experience that when the seismic energy is large, the duration of the seismic oscillation is long (large), and it is possible to predict the tremor stop time until the seismic wave converges from the magnitude of the seismic energy. is there.

  The time from the arrival of the main earthquake motion (S wave) to the stoppage of the motion can be roughly estimated from the magnitude value of the earthquake. For this prediction, FIG. 9 in which the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred in the past and the duration of the earthquake are plotted is used. As shown by the solid line A, the relational expression between the magnitude of the earthquake and the duration of the earthquake (main motion) It is known as a relational expression such as Dobry. In this way, by referring to the relationship between the magnitude of the earthquake and the duration of the earthquake in FIG. 9 or by using a formula that expresses this relationship diagram, the magnitude of the earthquake determined by the prediction can be calculated. Based on this, it is possible to obtain the duration (squake stop time) of the earthquake (main motion S wave).

  Note that the R.I. The method based on Dobry's relational expression is merely an example, and “a method for calculating the time until shaking stops similarly” using another known method may be applied.

  The seismic intensity and arrival time before the arrival of the seismic wave are as follows. When the seismic intensity is 5, the seismic intensity 5 is displayed in numbers and pentagons as shown in FIG. Numbers are displayed.

  Further, as shown in FIG. 10B, the time until the seismic wave converges is displayed in graphic form and time together with the seismic intensity display such as “20 seconds until the shaking stops”.

  Further, the presence / absence display of the tsunami is a character display of the tsunami “present” as shown in FIG. 10 (C), and the tsunami wave height value is the figure and number as shown in FIG. 10 (D). In addition to being displayed, the arrival time of the tsunami is displayed numerically.

  In this case, when the display of the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19 is a display with an alarm, the occurrence of an earthquake or tsunami may be notified by a warning sound. Further, when the mail terminal 19 is a mobile phone, even when the mobile phone is set to the silent mode (silent mode), when the earthquake or tsunami occurs, the manner mode is forcibly canceled to output an emergency warning. May be set.

  On the display of the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19, the seismic intensity of the earthquake is graphically displayed in a color tone that is similar to a polygon or circle corresponding to the seismic intensity scale and a traffic light.

  For example, if the seismic intensity of the earthquake is 2 or less, as shown in the histogram of FIG. 8, the seismic intensity is displayed in a blue-colored safety color circle, and if the seismic intensity is 3 or 4, the yellow-colored warning triangle or square is displayed. In the case of 5 or 6, red pentagons or hexagons are displayed in a dangerous color of red, and red danger colors are displayed in red or a heptagon or more in seismic intensity 7 or higher. The seismic intensity of the earthquake is blue, yellow, and red, and the seismic intensity scale can be distinguished at a glance, while the seismic intensity scale is represented by a polygonal angle display, so the seismic intensity of the earthquake is clearly visible at a glance. Can be determined.

  When the seismic intensity of the earthquake is 5 and 6, two types of display such as “high seismic intensity 6” and “low seismic intensity 6” are performed. FIG. 11A and FIG. ) And FIGS. 12A and 12B, for example, a black or color identification mark 77 may be attached. There are various other ways of attaching the identification mark.

  It is known from experience that there is no strength in an earthquake floor with a seismic intensity of 7 or higher, and that earthquakes have a seismic intensity of 5 or higher and are often damaged.

  On the other hand, the tsunami is also displayed graphically in the same image as that of the traffic light. For example, the symbol display 78 with a wave height of 1 m or less is displayed in blue, the symbol display 79 of 1 m or more and 3 m or less is displayed in yellow, and the symbol display 80 of 3 m or more is displayed in red. At the same time, the tsunami height is displayed according to the wave height. In addition to the color and shape, it also changes blinking. In the case of a tsunami, there is also an indicator of whether or not a tsunami will occur. For this information, a display portion for displaying “Tsunami presence / absence” is provided at the lower left of the screen.

  Next, FIG. 13 shows a display example of a display screen for grasping the time series displayed on the display device 17 in the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring device 1 of the embodiment.

  The display example shown in FIG. 13 makes it possible to visually grasp the time course of earthquakes and tsunamis, displays information related to prediction on the upper side of the screen, and information on actual conditions on the lower side of the screen. To do. In addition, in order to easily display where the current time is, the line indicating the current time is moved from left to right as the hairline cursor 81, and it is understood how far the time axis has changed for each event. Display as you can.

  FIG. 14 shows a setting display example of the training mode displayed on the display device 17 by the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1 of the embodiment.

  This display example is a screen for setting information relating to training, and it is possible to set whether to train on the assumption that “when”, “where”, and “how much” earthquakes have occurred regarding earthquake training. Similarly, it is possible to set “when” and “how much” tsunami will arrive for tsunami.

  FIG. 15 shows a display example of the unexpected training setting displayed on the display device 17 by the earthquake / tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1 of the embodiment. The display example shown in FIG. 13 is a method for controlling the output of training information in addition to the settings shown in FIG. Can be set for items. It is also possible to set the timing for sending the training information and the destination of the e-mail.

  FIG. 16: is a block diagram which shows schematically 2nd Embodiment of the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention.

  The seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1A shown in this embodiment inputs seismic rule information from the seismometer 37 with the S wave arrival prediction function as real time earthquake information input to the real time earthquake information input unit 2, and S A seismometer 37 with a wave arrival prediction function is provided in place of the real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 and the communication medium 26 shown in the first embodiment. Other configurations and operations are not different from those of the seismic / tsunami prediction actual situation monitoring apparatus 1 shown in the first embodiment, and therefore, the same components are denoted by the same reference numerals and description thereof is omitted.

  The seismometer 37 with the S wave arrival prediction function detects the P wave at the seismometer installation location with a single seismometer, and analyzes the detected waveform to input “when”, “where”, “ Source information such as “how much (magnitude)”, “allowance time until earthquake arrival”, “earthquake intensity scale” can be calculated, and based on this calculated value, a predicted value is calculated for the arrival of S wave (main wave) It has the same function as real-time earthquake information.

  Therefore, by installing one seismometer 37 with the S wave arrival prediction function, the seismometer 37 can substitute for the real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 and the communication media 26.

  As for the Miyagi-oki earthquake and Tokai / Tonankai earthquake, which are expected to be accompanied by a tsunami, the assumed hypocenter area is determined in advance. The predicted tsunami height can be calculated based on the predicted tsunami value.

  FIG. 17: is a block diagram which shows schematically 3rd Embodiment of the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention.

  The earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device 1B shown in this embodiment is a combination of the earthquake and tsunami prediction condition monitoring device 1 and 1A shown in the first embodiment and the second embodiment.

  The real-time earthquake information input unit 2 of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus 1C receives real-time earthquake information from the real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 via the communication medium 26, while the real-time earthquake information input unit 2 receives S-waves. Earthquake measurement information from the seismometer 37 with the arrival prediction function is also input. Since other configurations and operations are not different from those of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 1 shown in FIG. 1, the same components are denoted by the same reference numerals and description thereof is omitted.

  The earthquake information input to the real-time earthquake information input unit 2 has different input timings depending on the positional relationship between the seismometer installation point and the earthquake source, and the real-time earthquake information from the real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 is earlier. The earthquake measurement information from the seismometer 37 with the S wave arrival prediction function may be earlier.

  In this seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring device 1B, real-time earthquake information is input from the real-time earthquake information distribution unit 25 to the real-time earthquake information input unit 2 together with the earthquake measurement information from the seismometer 37 with S-wave arrival prediction function. The earlier one of the earthquake information is selected. The real-time earthquake processing unit 13 and the real-time tsunami processing unit 14 of the information processing unit 6 select the earthquake information input earlier from the earthquake measurement information and the real-time earthquake information, and perform calculation processing using the selected earthquake information as a calculation target. It is supposed to be.

  For this reason, a series of information processing is performed based on the earthquake information previously input to the information processing unit 6 of the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device 1C, and the earthquake / tsunami information is quickly displayed on the display device 17 or the mail terminal 19. It is output and displayed.

  As described above, according to each embodiment of the earthquake and tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus of the present invention, it is possible to visually grasp earthquake and tsunami information quickly at a glance. It is possible to construct a system, and it is possible to provide a more effective solution to the improvement of the implementation effect of the training that has been regarded as a conventional problem.

  That is, the seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring device of the present invention can be used as a disaster prevention-related device for monitoring earthquakes and tsunami predictions and actual conditions, particularly as a real-time disaster prevention system that is effective for utilizing real-time earthquake information. is there.

The block diagram which shows simply 1st Embodiment of the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention. The flowchart figure which shows the flow of a process in the real-time tsunami processing part with which the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention is equipped. (A) is a figure which shows the relationship between an earthquake magnitude class and damage, (B) is a figure which shows the relationship between an earthquake magnitude and an earthquake magnitude class. The flowchart figure which shows the flow of a process of the information output part with which the earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention is equipped. The figure which shows the example of a display screen of the presence or absence of the tsunami displayed on the display of a display apparatus or a mail terminal. The figure which shows the other example of a display screen of the tsunami presence or absence displayed on the display of a display apparatus or a mail terminal. The schematic diagram which shows the example of a display of an earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition display screen. The schematic diagram which shows the example of a display of the symbol display screen of an earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition. The figure which shows the relationship between the duration of a tsunami and a magnitude. (A) is a display example of seismic intensity and arrival time before the arrival of the seismic wave, (B) is a display example of convergence time to predict the remaining time until convergence of the seismic wave, (C) is a tsunami presence / absence display example at the time of tsunami presence / absence determination, and (D) is a figure which respectively shows the example of a display of the tsunami wave height and tsunami arrival time at the time of tsunami wave height value calculation. The figure which shows the example of a display of the strength of seismic intensity 5 of the earthquake of (A) and (B), respectively. (A) And (B) is a figure which respectively shows the example of a display of the strength of the seismic intensity 6 of an earthquake. The schematic diagram which shows the example of a display of the time series display screen of an earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition. The schematic diagram which shows the example of a display of a training mode setting screen. The schematic diagram which shows the example of a display of a surprise training setting screen. The block diagram which shows schematically 2nd Embodiment of the earthquake tsunami actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention. The block diagram which shows schematically 3rd Embodiment of the earthquake tsunami actual condition monitoring apparatus which concerns on this invention.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus 2 Real time earthquake information input part 3 Standard time input / processing part 4 Actual condition information input part 5 Keyboard input part 6 Information processing part 7 Information output part 7a Prediction system 7b Actual condition system 7c Display output part 8 Electronics Mail output unit 9 Data storage unit 13 Real time earthquake processing unit 14 Real time tsunami processing unit 15 Live system information processing unit 16 Training relation setting processing unit 17 Display device 18 Internet 19 Mail terminal 25 Real time earthquake information distribution unit 26 Communication media 35 Measurement seismometer 36 Tsunami Observation Device 45 Earthquake Tsunami Live Data Distribution Unit 46 Communication Media 55 Keyboard 65 Standard Time Distribution Unit 66 Communication Media 71 Symbol Display 72 Symbol Display 73 Symbol Display 74 Symbol Display 75 Symbol Display 76 Symbol Display 78 Symbol Display 79 Symbol Display 80 Symbol display 81 Hairline cursor

Claims (19)

Real-time seismic information input unit where real-time earthquake information is transmitted and input faster than seismic waves,
A real-time earthquake processing unit that calculates a predicted earthquake arrival time and a predicted seismic intensity scale at the target point before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point based on the real-time earthquake information;
A real-time tsunami processing unit that calculates the presence or absence of a tsunami at the target point based on the real-time earthquake information, a predicted tsunami arrival time, and a predicted tsunami wave height;
A live system information input unit for inputting measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height values or live data of earthquakes and tsunamis measured at the target point;
Information output by comparing the earthquake and tsunami prediction system information obtained by the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit with the earthquake and tsunami actual system information obtained by the actual system information processing unit An earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device characterized by comprising a part. The seismic tsunami prediction real-time monitoring device displays real-time earthquake information and real-time tsunami information on the same screen, and expresses the seismic intensity scale of the earthquake that is about to reach by a symbol display on the screen. Means for comparing and displaying,
A means for displaying the presence or absence of a tsunami associated with an earthquake that has occurred, expressing the predicted tsunami wave height with a symbol display when predicting that a tsunami will occur, and comparing and displaying the predicted tsunami wave height and the actual wave height The earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1, comprising: While the earthquake tsunami prediction live monitoring device is connected to the information output unit to a display device or a mail terminal,
The display device or e-mail terminal can be used according to the occurrence of an earthquake or tsunami.
a. Display function of seismic intensity and arrival time before the arrival of the seismic wave,
b. A tsunami presence / absence display function at the time of tsunami presence / absence judgment,
c. Display function of tsunami wave height and tsunami arrival time at the time of tsunami wave height calculation,
The seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 2, wherein: The display device or mail terminal further comprises a display function for predicting the remaining time until the seismic wave converges,
a. The display function of seismic intensity and arrival time before the arrival of the seismic wave,
a ₁ . A convergence time display function that predicts the remaining time until the seismic wave convergence,
b. A tsunami presence / absence display function at the time of tsunami presence / absence judgment,
c. 4. The seismic / tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the tsunami wave height and the tsunami arrival time display function at the time of calculating the tsunami wave height are sequentially switched and displayed. While the earthquake tsunami prediction live monitoring device connects the information output unit to a display device or a mail terminal,
The display device or the mail terminal displays the seismic intensity of the earthquake in a polygonal shape or a circular shape,
The seismic intensity of 2 or less is set to display in a blue safety color, the seismic intensity of 3 or 4 is displayed in a yellow warning color, and the intensity of seismic intensity of 5 or 6 or higher is displayed in a red danger color. Earthquake tsunami prediction live monitoring device. The display device or e-mail terminal displays the seismic intensity of the earthquake according to the seismic intensity scale, the seismic intensity 3 is a triangle, the seismic intensity 4 is a quadrangle, the seismic intensity 5 is a pentagon, and the seismic intensity 6 is a hexagonal polygon. 5. Earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device according to 5. The display device or the mail terminal displays the height of the tsunami in a figure corresponding to the wave height,
The seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the tsunami wave height is less than 1 m in a blue color, the wave height is not less than 1 m and less than 3 m in a yellow color, and the wave height is greater than 3 m in a red color. The seismic tsunami prediction actual monitoring device compares the display of the prediction system that is information from the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit with the display of the actual system that is information from the actual information processing unit. 2. The earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for displaying and indicating a relative positional relationship on the time axis with respect to current time prediction system information and actual system information. The said earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus has a training relation setting process part which sets each setting value of an earthquake and a tsunami as operation | movement at the time of the training which assumed generation | occurrence | production of an earthquake and a tsunami. Earthquake tsunami prediction live monitoring device. The training relation setting processing unit includes means for setting a condition for performing the unexpected strike training, and means for setting the due date, time zone, and frequency of the unexpected strike training using a random number based on the condition, The earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 9. The earthquake according to claim 10, further comprising an e-mail output unit that sends an e-mail describing the setting of training set in the training-related setting processing unit to one or more preset destinations. Tsunami prediction live monitoring device. The seismic tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device includes information on the prediction system earthquake and tsunami that is information from the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit, and information on the actual system earthquake and tsunami information from the real-time information processing unit. The earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising an e-mail output means for sending e-mail displaying tsunami information to one or more preset destinations. 2. The earthquake tsunami according to claim 1, wherein the real-time tsunami processing unit processes a tsunami “present” when the location of the epicenter in the real-time earthquake information is a sea area and the magnitude is a predetermined value or more. Predictive live monitoring device. The information output unit outputs and displays the prediction tsunami presence / absence information from the real-time tsunami processing unit on the display device immediately after the occurrence of the earthquake, while when the meteorological tsunami presence / absence information is issued from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the prediction tsunami 14. The earthquake / tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1 or 13, further comprising a display output unit configured to display the presence / absence information by overwriting the Meteorological Agency information. The information output unit can display the tsunami presence / absence information of the prediction system from the real-time tsunami processing unit and the tsunami presence / absence information issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the display device, respectively. 14. The earthquake / tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1 or 13, wherein the presence / absence indication is set to be identifiable as to whether it is prediction tsunami presence information or JMA information. The information output unit is capable of displaying the tsunami presence / absence information of the prediction system from the real-time tsunami processing unit and the tsunami presence / absence information issued from the Japan Meteorological Agency on the display device, respectively, 14. The earthquake and tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring apparatus according to claim 1 or 13, wherein the meteorological agency information is displayed together with the display time of both pieces of information. Enter real-time earthquake information faster than the seismic wave into the real-time earthquake information input section,
Before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point, the predicted earthquake arrival time and predicted seismic intensity scale at the target point are calculated in the real-time earthquake processing unit based on the real-time earthquake information,
The real-time tsunami processing unit calculates the presence or absence of a tsunami at the target point and the predicted tsunami arrival time and predicted tsunami wave height based on the real-time earthquake information,
Input the measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height value measured at the target point or the actual data of the earthquake and tsunami into the actual system information input unit,
Outputting the earthquake and tsunami prediction system information obtained by the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit in comparison with the earthquake and tsunami actual system information obtained by the actual system information processing unit. A featured monitoring method for earthquake and tsunami prediction. A real-time earthquake information input unit for inputting earthquake measurement information measured by a seismometer with S wave arrival prediction function;
A real-time earthquake processing unit that calculates a predicted earthquake arrival time and a predicted seismic intensity scale at the target point before the main motion of the earthquake reaches the target point based on the earthquake measurement information;
A real-time tsunami processing unit that calculates the presence or absence of a tsunami at the target point based on the earthquake measurement information, a predicted tsunami arrival time, and a predicted tsunami wave height;
A live system information input unit for inputting measured seismic intensity and tsunami wave height values or live data of earthquakes and tsunamis measured at the target point;
Information output by comparing the earthquake and tsunami prediction system information obtained by the real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit with the earthquake and tsunami actual system information obtained by the actual system information processing unit Earthquake tsunami prediction actual condition monitoring device characterized by comprising a part. While the real-time earthquake information input unit receives real-time earthquake information from the real-time earthquake information distribution unit together with the earthquake measurement information from the seismometer with S wave arrival prediction function,
19. The real-time earthquake processing unit and the real-time tsunami processing unit select information input earlier from the earthquake measurement information and real-time earthquake information, and set the selected information as a calculation target. Earthquake tsunami prediction live monitoring system.

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