JP2003287574A - System, method and program for predicting earthquake damage - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a function capable of presuming an earthquake damage beforehand and taking a measure for the earthquake, and to accurately and rapidly estimate the earthquake damage for a period when no information is obtained just after the occurrence of the earthquake. <P>SOLUTION: The system for predicting the earthquake damage, which presumes the earthquake damage beforehand or estimates the damage just after the occurrence of the earthquake, is provided with a means which sets information relating to an earthquake fault, a means which computes an earth movement in a prescribed reference ground on the basis of the information relating to the earthquake fault, a means which computes an earth movement on a ground level on the basis of the earth movement in the reference ground, and a means which displays prescribed information on the basis of the earth movement on the ground level. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to earthquake damage prediction and disaster prevention.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, local governments and others have conducted earthquake damage prediction surveys for the purpose of drafting disaster prevention measures. In this survey, local governments have identified weaknesses in each region, targeting generally the largest earthquakes that can be considered.

In addition, local governments etc.
We have set goals for disaster response. For example, 1980
Around this year, such surveys were conducted in Tokyo, Saitama Prefecture, etc., and have been conducted in most prefectures after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. Based on such surveys, many local governments have prepared earthquake damage prediction survey reports.

Further, an earthquake damage pre-estimation system in which an earthquake damage estimation function for predicting damage due to an earthquake is realized on a computer has been developed. For example, there has been provided a system in which a preliminary survey data, which is the basis of an earthquake damage survey, is installed, and an arithmetic function and a display / print function are integrated. Such a system was introduced to the Tokyo Fire Department and Kawasaki City in 1994.

[0005] Such a system includes a soft ground surface near the ground surface (this ground is called the surface ground and the uppermost surface is called the ground surface), and a hard rock surface under the surface ground (hereinafter referred to as the foundation). Seismic analysis is performed on a model consisting of (surface). For example, give ground motion as an initial value to the basement surface, perform numerical calculation by the overlapping reflection theory,
Seismic motion on the surface is required. The overlapping reflection theory is a theory showing the algorithm of the earthquake analysis program "SHAKE" developed at the University of California.

On the other hand, a system for reducing damage after an earthquake has been introduced into each local government. For example, a system for immediately estimating, which identifies a damaged area and estimates the scale of the damage in a blank period immediately after the disaster, has been introduced to advanced local governments.

[0007] In such a system, damages are made by using the earthquake information announced by the Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, and the post-event information of the earthquake observation information provided by the prefectural epicenter information network maintained after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. The prediction is performed.

For example, the seismic intensity observation network of the Japan Meteorological Agency covers the whole country at intervals of about 20 km (one seismic intensity meter is installed at 400 km). The prefectural seismic intensity information network is an observation network with one seismic intensity meter installed in municipalities nationwide (one in each ward in Tokyo). One seismograph is installed at an average interval of 10 km, and the area covered by one is 100 square km. In addition, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
It has an observation network called ET. The main purpose of K-NET is to collect vibration waveforms. K-NET is 1 in the whole country
000 seismic intensity meters are installed, and the area covered by one is the same as the seismic intensity observation network of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

As described above, various systems have been constructed for the purpose of earthquake damage estimation and immediately after earthquake damage estimation. However, the results of such a system are not always sufficient.

For example, as described above, in the conventional earthquake damage estimation survey, damage estimation has been performed for the largest possible earthquake. However, the probability of the largest earthquake is extremely low.

[0011] Since the probability of occurrence of the assumed earthquake is extremely small, conversely, a misunderstanding occurs in the earthquake survey report,
The danger of an earthquake was sometimes neglected. In other words, the damage caused by an earthquake that is smaller than the largest earthquake and has a high probability of occurrence has not been considered.

Further, due to changes in social conditions, such as changes in the number of buildings and population, it is necessary to review the earthquake damage estimation survey report. However, the earthquake damage estimation survey has conventionally required a lot of time and labor, and this review work is not easy.

Furthermore, the conventional earthquake damage pre-estimation system has the following problems. First, an earthquake occurs due to a fault rupture, and the epicenter fault constitutes a plane in three-dimensional space. However, in the conventional earthquake damage pre-estimation system, such a surface source is not considered, and a point source or a line source has been used. For this reason, the accuracy of the calculation results by the earthquake damage prediction system was often inferior to that of the earthquake damage prediction report prepared by hand.

Further, in the conventional system, a mesh of 1 km unit or the like was often adopted as the evaluation area for evaluating the damage of the earthquake. Therefore, it was difficult to recognize the location of the disaster area.

Further, in the conventional system, the earthquake is evaluated based on only the maximum acceleration during vibration. A system based only on this acceleration does not allow accurate damage estimation. For example, even if the acceleration is large, if the acceleration period is short, the amplitude of the earthquake motion may be small and the damage may not be large. Moreover, even if the acceleration is small, if the acceleration period is long, the amplitude of the earthquake motion is large and the damage may be large.

Further, when the seismic motion is applied to the base surface as described above and the seismic motion on the ground surface is obtained by the amplification ratio from the base surface to the surface ground, there is a problem in setting the amplification factor. For example, in the actual ground, such an amplification factor has nonlinearity associated with the magnitude of earthquake motion. The reason is,
This is because the physical properties of the ground change depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion. However, in the conventional system, the non-linearity of the amplification factor is not taken into consideration.

Furthermore, the seismic waveform has different frequency characteristics depending on the type of earthquake, such as long-distance (trench earthquake) and short-distance (inland) earthquake. As a result, the amplification factor from the basement surface to the surface ground varies depending on the type of such earthquake. However, the conventional system does not consider such a difference in amplification factor due to the difference in earthquake type.

Further, even if the earthquake occurrence conditions, for example, the position and shape of the earthquake fault, the inclination angle of the fault, and the magnitude of the epicenter are the same, the same results as those of the earthquake damage estimation survey report prepared by hand have been obtained. Could not be reproduced by the system. In other words, the results of human damage estimation and the results of system estimation were not consistent.

Further, in the estimation of the damage immediately after the earthquake, in addition to the same problem as the above-mentioned prior assumption, a technique for estimating the seismic motion distribution that is consistent with the seismic observation result has not been established.

In some ordinance-designated cities, etc., some seismographs are arranged in high density to establish their own seismic observation network. In such a system for each local government, in addition to the measurement seismograph specified by the Japan Meteorological Agency, a system for collecting vibration waveforms, SI
An SI sensor or the like that collects (Spectrum Intensity) values is used. However, no immediate estimation method corresponding to the installation density of seismographs and the type of seismic data to be collected has been established.

Further, in order to reduce the damage after the disaster, it is necessary to take appropriate measures according to the result of such an immediate estimation. On the other hand, earthquakes occur both at night and on holidays, and it is necessary to deal with them with limited personnel. However, in such a limited number of organizations, there is no established method to utilize the immediate estimation result for initial response.

[0022]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in view of such problems of the conventional techniques. That is, an object of the present invention is to provide a function capable of anticipating earthquake damage in advance and taking measures against the earthquake. Moreover, the subject of this invention is providing the function which can estimate the damage of an earthquake with high precision and a short time in the information blank period immediately after an earthquake occurrence.

[0023]

The present invention adopts the following means in order to solve the above problems. That is, the present invention is an earthquake damage prediction system that estimates the damage of an earthquake in advance or estimates the damage immediately after the occurrence of an earthquake, and provides a means for setting information related to an earthquake fault and information related to the earthquake fault. Based on this, means for calculating the ground motion on the predetermined reference ground, means for setting the ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion on the reference ground, and means for displaying predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface It is a thing.

[0024] Preferably, the information relating to the earthquake fault is
The seismic fault shape may be specified in a three-dimensional space.

[0025] Preferably, the information related to the earthquake fault is
The seismic fault may be defined by a surface, and information may be included that defines the position of the seismic fault, the shape of the seismic fault, the angle of the surface with respect to the ground surface, and the strength of seismic motion.

Preferably, the earthquake damage prediction system includes means for setting a magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, and the means for calculating the ground motion on the ground surface uses the magnification. Seismic motion may be calculated.

[0027] Preferably, the earthquake damage prediction system comprises means for inputting earthquake observation information at a predetermined point,
A means for correcting the calculated earthquake motion on the ground surface based on the earthquake observation information may be further provided.

Further, the present invention is an earthquake damage prediction system for estimating damage immediately after an earthquake, and means for inputting seismic observation information and means for calculating seismic motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the seismic observation information. And a means for estimating the ground motion at a desired position on the reference ground based on the calculation result of the ground motion on the reference ground, a means for calculating the ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion estimated on the reference ground, and the ground surface It may be provided with means for displaying predetermined information based on the earthquake motion.

As described above, the earthquake damage prediction system of the present invention includes a system that estimates damage caused by an earthquake in advance or a system that estimates damage immediately after the occurrence of an earthquake.

[0030] Preferably, the earthquake damage prediction system comprises means for setting a magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, and means for calculating the ground motion on the reference ground or the ground motion on the ground surface. The means for calculating may calculate the earthquake motion based on this magnification.

Preferably, the magnification may be set to different values depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion.

Preferably, the magnification may be set to different values depending on the positional relationship between the earthquake fault and the reference ground and the ground motion calculation point on the ground surface or the ground motion estimated point on the ground surface.

Preferably, the means for calculating the ground motion on the ground surface may calculate the ground motion for each evaluation area divided by a polygon.

Preferably, the seismic motion may be described by a measured seismic intensity on the ground surface, SI value, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, acceleration response spectrum, or velocity response spectrum.

[0035] Preferably, the predetermined information may be earthquake motion distribution for each area or damage prediction information for each area. Here, the damage prediction information includes damage estimation information that predicts damage due to an earthquake in advance or estimation information that estimates damage immediately after the earthquake.

Further, the present invention is an earthquake damage estimation method in which a computer predicts damage due to an earthquake in advance or estimates damage immediately after an earthquake, and a step of setting information related to an earthquake fault, and Based on the information related to the earthquake fault, the step of calculating the ground motion on a predetermined reference ground, the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion on the reference ground, and the predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface. And a step of displaying.

Further, the present invention is an earthquake damage estimation method in which a computer estimates damage immediately after an earthquake, and a step of inputting earthquake observation information and an earthquake motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the earthquake observation information. Calculating step, based on the calculation result of the ground motion on the reference ground, estimating the ground motion at a desired position on the reference ground, calculating the ground motion on the ground surface based on the estimated ground motion on the reference ground, and The step of displaying predetermined information based on the earthquake motion on the ground surface may be executed.

The present invention may be a program that causes a computer to realize any of these functions.
The present invention may be one in which such a program is recorded in a computer-readable recording medium.

Here, the computer-readable recording medium is a recording medium that stores information such as data and programs by electrical, magnetic, optical, mechanical, or chemical action and can be read by a computer. Say. Among such recording media, those removable from the computer include, for example, floppy (registered trademark) disks, magnetic disks, CD-ROMs, CD-R / Ws, DVDs, Ds.
There are ATs, 8mm tapes, memory cards, etc.

Further, a hard disk, a ROM (Read Only Memory), etc. are provided as a recording medium fixed to the computer.

[0041]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings of FIGS.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of earthquake motion propagation, and FIG.
Is a functional block diagram of an earthquake disaster response support system including an earthquake damage prediction system according to the present embodiment, and FIG.
FIG. 4 is a system configuration diagram of the earthquake disaster response support system shown in FIG. 2, FIG. 4 is an example of a fault setting screen in the earthquake damage estimation function (preliminary assumption) shown in FIG. 2, and FIG. 5 is an earthquake damage estimation function. 6 is an example of a multi-scenario setting screen in (preliminary assumption), FIG. 6 is an example of data of seismic response characteristics (amplification factor) of surface ground in the earthquake damage prediction system shown in FIG. 2, and FIG. It is a figure which shows the nonlinearity of a physical property value, FIG. 8 is a figure which shows the example of a building damage probability, FIG. 9 is an example of a display of seismic-motion distribution, and FIG. 10 is a table of the information list for every evaluation area. FIG. 11 is an example of aggregation and display of prediction results by administrative unit, and FIG. 12 is FIG.
14 is a flowchart showing an earthquake damage estimation process executed in the damage estimation unit 4 shown in FIG. 13, FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an outline of a fault setting method in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediate estimation), and FIG. FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing a condition determination process for performing identification, FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a procedure for determining whether the epicenter is distant or near, and FIG. 16 is a diagram showing correspondence between the epicenter position and the strike. 18 is a flow chart showing an immediate estimation process by the fault setting method.
FIG. 19 is a diagram showing a method of calculating a correction coefficient in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediately after estimation), and FIGS. 19 and 20 are schematic diagrams of the ground plane seismic motion distribution setting method in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediately after estimation). FIG. 21 is a flowchart showing the immediately after estimation processing by the ground plane seismic-motion distribution setting method, FIG. 22 is a screen example of the initial-motion-compatible automatic guidance function shown in FIG. 2, and FIG. 23 is an electronic diagram shown in FIG. It is an example of a manual.

<Concept of Earthquake Motion Propagation> FIG. 1 shows a conceptual diagram of earthquake motion propagation. Earthquakes occur with the fault activity of the stratum. In FIG. 1, since the plate A submerges under the plate B, the strain C is generated in the plate B. When the energy of this strain exceeds the limit value, fault activity that restores the strain occurs (arrow 100). As a result, seismic motion occurs on the fault plane (Fig. 1).
Such a fault is called an earthquake fault.

This seismic motion propagates at a high speed (about 4 km / s) on the basement surface under the surface ground (Fig. 1). However,
In the present embodiment, an engineering base plane having strength as a support base for a building or a pile foundation is used as the base plane instead of the base plane which is an actual bedrock. This is because there are few examples of geological surveys up to the actual earth bedrock.

The earthquake damage prediction system of this embodiment gives an earthquake fault to the epicenter and analyzes the ground motion on the ground surface. At that time, the seismic motion on the basement surface is obtained by the distance attenuation formula showing the relationship between the distance from the seismic fault and the magnitude of the seismic motion (eg, seismic intensity, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, etc.).

This distance attenuation formula is a relational formula obtained by statistically processing the relation between the distance from the earthquake fault and the magnitude of the earthquake motion. As the distance attenuation formula, for example, the Annaka formula is widely known (reference document, Annaka, T. and Y. Nozawa, Apr.
obabilistic model for seismic hazard estimation in
the Kanto district: Proc.9th WCEE, II-107-II-112 (1
988)).

Further, this seismic motion propagates through the surface ground and reaches the ground surface (see FIG. 1). At this time, generally, the short period component of the earthquake motion is attenuated and the long period component is amplified. This earthquake damage prediction system defines the relationship between the ground motion of the ground surface and the ground motion of the ground surface with an amplification factor (equivalent to a magnification).

The amplification factor is determined depending on the formation structure of the surface ground. Therefore, in this earthquake damage prediction system, it is a prerequisite to use the system that the geological survey of the surface ground has been completed in the analysis target area.

<Functional Configuration> FIG. 2 shows the functional configuration of the earthquake disaster response support system. This system consists of programs and documents built on a computer,
It consists of information such as various printed manuals. As shown in FIG. 2, the system includes the following components.

Disaster Prevention Plan, Disaster Response Manual A disaster prevention plan is created by prefectures, municipalities and public institutions. The disaster prevention plan stipulates policies and implementation standards for disaster prevention plans, emergency measures plans, and restoration / reconstruction plans.

The disaster response manual is a manual that defines the disaster response content and the implementation method that should be implemented by each department or organization in order to smoothly carry out the work specified in the disaster prevention plan.

Earthquake Damage Assumption Survey Report The earthquake damage estimation survey is a study to set the achievement targets of the disaster prevention plan and to make a damage prevention plan such as earthquake resistance measures. This study is aimed at identifying weaknesses in the area and covers the largest earthquakes in the area. This report is the report of this survey.

Preliminary information database (hereinafter, the database is also referred to as DB) This database is composed of the following databases.

Earthquake Fault DB The earthquake fault DB holds the position, shape, magnitude (magnitude of energy of fault activity), etc. of the earthquake fault.

Surface layer ground characteristic DB The surface layer ground characteristic DB holds seismic response characteristics (amplification factor) based on the layer structure of the surface layer ground.

Facility, population DB The facility, population DB holds facility data such as the number of buildings and population data for each address chome.

Damage function DB The damage function DB holds the relationship between the magnitude of earthquake motion and the damage occurrence probability of the facility.

The above-mentioned preliminary survey DB is constructed based on the results of the earthquake damage estimation survey. This preliminary survey D
B is referred to when the earthquake damage estimation (preliminary assumption) function or the earthquake damage estimation (immediate estimation) function is executed.

Earthquake Damage Assumption (Preliminary Assumption) Function The earthquake damage estimation (assumption) function is realized by a program on a computer that accesses the preliminary investigation DB. The earthquake damage estimation function is composed of an earthquake damage estimation calculation unit, a damage estimation result display unit, and a printing unit.

Earthquake Information Collection Function The earthquake information collection function is an online system that obtains the earthquake information announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency from each district meteorological station or local meteorological station, and online that collects seismic observation results from an earthquake observation network such as a prefectural seismic intensity meter information network. It is realized by the system.

Earthquake damage estimation (immediate estimation) function The earthquake damage estimation function uses the information collected by the above-mentioned earthquake information collection function (earthquake information announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency and the seismic observation result of the seismic observation network) Estimate the distribution,
Furthermore, it is a function to estimate damage from the earthquake motion distribution.

In this embodiment, a system that executes an earthquake damage estimation (preliminary assumption) function and an earthquake damage estimation (immediate estimation) function is called an earthquake damage prediction system.

Initial response automatic guidance function The damage scale is specified from the earthquake damage estimation (immediate estimation) result,
This function provides guidance on the initial response that should be taken by each department or organization according to the scale of the disaster. In this guidance, the initial response work item, the procedure for each item, the checklist for each procedure, etc. are displayed.

Electronic Manual The electronic manual is provided with an interface for computerizing disaster prevention plans and disaster response manuals and accessing them from a computer on the network. This electronic manual and the above-mentioned initial response automatic guidance are displayed in cooperation with each other.

Of the above functions, a system that executes an earthquake damage estimation function, an earthquake information collection function, and an earthquake damage estimation function is called an earthquake damage prediction system in this embodiment.

<System Configuration> FIG. 3 shows the system configuration of the earthquake disaster response support system. This system
It is configured by connecting various computers connected by LAN to the seismic observation facilities 1 to n in various places.

In this embodiment, a data server 1, a WWW (world wide web) server 2, an observation processing section 3, and a damage estimating section 4 are provided as various computers.

As shown in FIG. 3, in the present embodiment,
The data server 1 and the like are configured on different computers and are connected by LAN. However, these may be configured on a single computer.

These computers are generally CP
It has a U, a memory, a hard disk, a LAN board, a display device, a keyboard, a pointing device, and the like, and the configuration thereof is widely known, so the description thereof will be omitted.

In the computer shown in FIG. 3, the data server 1 is connected to a sensor of an earthquake observation facility via a LAN, a terminal server, a modem, etc., and obtains the earthquake observation data at predetermined time intervals. Acquire and store the announced earthquake information online.

The WWW server 2 also provides an electronic manual, initial response guidance, and the like through a network (LAN or the Internet (not shown)) or the like. When an earthquake occurs, the WWW server 2 delivers information from the disaster countermeasures headquarters, lifeline institutions, police, fire departments, etc. to the network.

The observation processing section 3 executes a predetermined program, analyzes the seismic observation results accumulated in the data server 1, and provides seismic observation information necessary for seismic damage estimation (immediate estimation).

The damage estimation unit 4 accesses the preliminary investigation database on the data server 1 and provides an earthquake damage estimation (prior assumption) function.

<Earthquake Damage Assumption (Preliminary Assumption) Function> The earthquake damage estimation (assumption) function allows the user to set the seismic fault of the epicenter, and based on this, predicts the ground motion and the damage caused by the earthquake motion. Is. The earthquake damage prediction (prior assumption) function has the following functions.

[Setting of Earthquake Fault] This earthquake damage prediction system causes the user to set the position, shape, energy, etc. of the earthquake fault, and obtains the ground motion on the ground surface based on this. The feature of this system is the function to set the seismic fault by plane (rectangle).

FIG. 4 shows an example of an earthquake fault setting screen. This earthquake damage prediction system expresses earthquake faults as rectangles. Then, on the earthquake fault setting screen, the coordinates (points P1 and P2) at both ends of one side of the rectangle parallel to the ground surface are designated as fault positions.

In this setting screen, the inclination of this rectangle with respect to the ground surface (this is called a dip angle), point P
The depth of one point P2 (depth 1), the depth of the opposite side of the side formed by the point P1 and the point P2 (depth 2), and the magnitude of the earthquake fault are designated.

Thus, the seismic fault is set by the size, position, inclination and magnitude of the rectangle. In this earthquake damage prediction system, a plurality of such earthquake faults may be set. The rectangle shown on the map in Fig. 4 indicates the location of the earthquake fault.

[Multi-scenario setting function] The multi-scenario function means a function of setting and changing the position, shape and scale of an earthquake fault, a function of setting an earthquake occurrence time (month and time of occurrence), and the like.

The prediction of the earthquake motion distribution does not depend on the month and time when the earthquake occurs. However, damage based on the earthquake motion prediction results,
In particular, the number of fires is affected by the month and time of the earthquake. For example, in residential houses, there is a lot of fire in the winter evening. Therefore, the number of fires caused by earthquake motion will increase.
The multi-scenario function provides a function to analyze the dependency of earthquake damage on time.

FIG. 5 shows an example of the multi-scenario setting screen. On this screen, in addition to the fault position, depth, inclination, and magnitude similar to those in FIG. 4, a window for setting the month and time of occurrence is displayed.

[Setting of Evaluation Area] This earthquake damage prediction system uses the concept of an evaluation area to evaluate earthquake motion. The evaluation area is a unit of land for evaluating earthquake motions on the ground surface and assuming damage. The earthquake damage prediction system provides a function of allowing the user to set this evaluation area.

With this evaluation area setting function, the user can set various evaluation areas. For example, the user
The unit of town and chome managed by the local government can be set as the evaluation area. The user may also specify a mesh unrelated to such an administrative unit, or another polygon, and specify the evaluation area of the mesh or polygon.

The earthquake damage prediction system sets an amplification factor for each designated evaluation area. For example, when the town chome unit is designated as the evaluation area, the earthquake damage prediction system refers to the surface ground characteristic DB and sets the amplification factor for each evaluation area.

At this time, when a plurality of strata exist in one evaluation area and a plurality of amplification factors exist, this earthquake damage prediction system combines the amplification factors in the evaluation area into one.
This earthquake damage prediction system provides multiple options as a method to combine multiple amplification factors into one.

For example, in the first method, the maximum value of the amplification rate in the evaluation area is set as the amplification rate in the evaluation area. Also, the second
In this method, the minimum amplification factor in the evaluation area is used as the amplification factor in the evaluation area. In the third method, the area of each different stratum in the evaluation area is obtained, and the amplification factor of each stratum is weighted and averaged by the area ratio.

The present earthquake damage prediction system multiplies the ground motion on the ground surface by the amplification factor for each evaluation region to obtain the ground motion on the ground surface in each evaluation region. Furthermore, the earthquake damage prediction system assumes damage in each evaluation area based on the ground motion on the ground surface.

The earthquake damage prediction system sets the evaluation area with the divided linear data for so-called lifelines such as roads, railways, water, gas, and telephone lines. Even in this linear evaluation area, the earthquake damage prediction system refers to the surface soil characteristic DB,
The amplification factor is set for each evaluation area, the ground motion is calculated from the ground motion on the base, and damage is assumed.

Further, for the bridge, the important disaster prevention base facility, etc., the present earthquake damage prediction system sets the evaluation area by point data. Even in the evaluation area of this point data, this earthquake damage prediction system refers to the surface soil characteristic DB, sets the amplification factor for each evaluation area, obtains the ground motion from the ground motion of the foundation surface, and assumes damage To do.

[Setting of Seismic Motion on Engineering Base Surface] The present earthquake damage prediction system adopts the Annaka formula as a standard as a distance attenuation formula for obtaining the ground motion on the base surface due to an earthquake fault. The Annaka equation is the maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, and acceleration response spectrum of the base plane, with parameters such as the magnitude of the earthquake (magnitude) and the shortest distance from the base plane to the earthquake fault (length of perpendicular), the damping constant of the base plane, It is an empirical formula for calculating a velocity response spectrum.

Further, the Annaka formula has a parameter for setting the non-exceedance probability. For example, by specifying probability parameters such as the magnitude of earthquake motion predicted on average (probability 50%) and the largest magnitude earthquake motion that can occur (non-exceedment probability 95%) It can be calculated.

This system has the following ground motions on the base plane:
Based on the amplification rate from the basement surface to the ground surface, the ground motion on the ground surface is estimated and damage prediction is executed.

[Seismic response characteristics of surface ground (amplification rate)] This earthquake damage prediction system predicts the seismic response characteristics of each area in advance, that is, the amplification rate of the seismic motion with respect to the base surface of the surface ground in each evaluation area (geological layer). ) For each. Then, referring to the amplification factor for each evaluation area, the ground motion on the ground surface is obtained.

FIG. 6 shows an example of such an amplification factor. In FIG. 6, the horizontal axis represents the magnitude of seismic motion on the base surface (engineered base surface), and the vertical axis represents the magnitude of seismic motion on the ground surface having a specific surface ground. This earthquake damage prediction system holds the amplification factors shown in FIG. 6 in a table format.

As shown in FIG. 6, the present earthquake damage prediction system holds different amplification factors depending on the magnitude of the ground motion on the basement surface. This is because the computer handles the non-linearity that the characteristics of the surface ground differ depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion.

FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining the non-linearity of the surface ground. When the ground layer is deformed, the physical properties of the surface ground such as sand, sandy soil, cohesive soil, clay, etc., such as rigidity and damping constant, change. As shown in FIG. 7, generally, the greater the deformation of the formation, the lower the rigidity and the damping constant.

When the rigidity of the surface layer soil decreases, the natural period in that layer becomes longer, and long-period waves become dominant. Also,
As the damping constant increases, short-period waves decay. As a result, in general, relative displacement tends to increase on the ground surface as compared to the base surface.

As described above, since the amplification factor has a characteristic that it changes depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion, the earthquake damage prediction system sets the magnitude of the earthquake motion on the engineering basis in a plurality of stages.

In addition, the distance attenuation formula (Annaka formula) adopted as a standard in the present earthquake damage prediction system can calculate the response spectrum in addition to the maximum acceleration and the maximum velocity in the engineering base plane.

The response spectrum represents the frequency characteristics of seismic waves. This response spectrum is also affected by the non-linearity of the physical property value of the surface ground described above, like the amplification factor. Generally, high-frequency components are quickly attenuated during the propagation process of earthquake motion. Therefore, the longer the period, the more dominant the long-period component. Therefore, this earthquake disaster damage prediction system
Different amplification factors are set for each earthquake type such as long-distance earthquake and short-distance earthquake. Then, the earthquake damage prediction system determines the type of long distance or short distance at the time when the epicenter is designated, and refers to the amplification factor according to the type.

[Calculation of Liquefaction Risk Level] The present earthquake damage prediction system obtains the liquefaction risk level (generally referred to as PL value) of the surface ground from the ground surface ground motion or the ground surface ground motion. (1) Procedure to obtain the liquefaction risk (PL value) from the basement ground motion When the magnitude of the ground motion on the basement surface is known, the formula showing the degree of liquefaction on the surface ground is expressed as the resistivity FL against liquefaction. It is known that it can be done (Reference: Highway Bridge Specification / Commentary V Seismic Design Edition / Japan Road Boundary / February 1990).

Further, the liquefaction risk PL is the function FL
It is known that it can be calculated by using Equation 1 in consideration of the weight in the depth direction (reference document: research report on damage assumption of an earthquake directly beneath Tokyo / Tokyo / August 1997).

[0103]

[Equation 1] Therefore, the liquefaction risk can be calculated for each value of the seismic motion on the base surface, as with the amplification factor of each surface layer. (2) Procedure for obtaining liquefaction risk (PL value) from ground surface ground motion Some distance attenuation formulas for calculating earthquake motion due to an earthquake fault include direct ground surface ground motion calculations (Morasse-Yamazaki formula).

Road Bridge Specification and Commentary V Seismic Design Edition (December 1996, published by Japan Road Association) proposes a calculation method for obtaining the liquefaction index FL from the maximum ground surface acceleration. This earthquake damage prediction system uses this calculation method as a simple calculation method.

[Prediction of Facility Damage and Human Damage] Following the prediction of the ground motion distribution on the ground surface, the facility and human damage are predicted. This earthquake damage prediction system records the damage rate obtained from the statistics of past earthquake damage in the damage function DB.

FIG. 8 shows an example of the building damage probability held in the damage function DB. In FIG. 8, the horizontal axis is the maximum ground surface speed, and the vertical axis is the empirical value of the damage rate to the building with respect to the maximum ground surface speed.

The damage function DB has a human damage ratio in addition to such a building damage ratio. Also, the damage function DB is
In addition to the damage rate for the maximum velocity of the ground surface, it has the damage rate for the measured seismic intensity, the damage rate for the SI value, the damage rate for the maximum acceleration, the damage rate for the acceleration response spectrum, and the damage rate for the velocity response spectrum. ing.

Further, the damage function DB has, for example, the death rate for the total number of destroyed buildings and the fire rate for the total number of destroyed buildings. However, since the fire rate generally depends on the time, it has the time as a parameter.

The present earthquake damage prediction system predicts damage based on the assumed result of earthquake motion in the evaluation area and the damage rate held in the damage function DB. For example, ・ Total number of buildings destroyed in the evaluation area = Building total destruction rate against the magnitude of earthquake motion × Total number of buildings in the evaluation area ・ Number of deaths in the evaluation area = Total number of buildings destroyed in the evaluation area × Death rate ・ Number of fires in the evaluation area = Number of buildings completely destroyed in the evaluation area x Fire rate, etc.

[Display by GIS] This seismic damage prediction system displays the result of seismic fault setting and the predicted result of seismic motion and seismic damage based on the seismic fault setting result in GIS (Geographical Informa
option system).

FIG. 9 shows a display example of the result of earthquake motion prediction in Tokyo. Since the GIS itself is a commercially available technology, its explanation is omitted.

[Display of information list for each evaluation area] When the evaluation area is selected on the display device, the present earthquake damage prediction system displays a list of the name, position, and damage prediction result of the evaluation area.

FIG. 10 shows a display example of damage prediction results for each evaluation area. In FIG. 10, the evaluation area called Tonomachi, Matsusaka City is selected, and the attributes of the evaluation, such as population, population density, and area, base surface maximum acceleration, base surface maximum speed, ground surface maximum acceleration, ground surface maximum speed, seismic intensity, etc. A list of earthquake motion prediction results and the number of damaged wooden buildings, number of non-wooden damaged buildings, average number of fatalities, maximum number of fatalities, number of fire points, etc. is displayed.

[Aggregation by administrative unit] This earthquake damage prediction system is designed to collect the damages predicted in the evaluation area such as town chome letters, for example, the total number of destroyed buildings and the number of fatalities in each municipality, and further Total by prefecture and print out.

FIG. 11 shows an example of aggregation / display of earthquake damage in such an administrative unit. In FIG. 11, the prediction result for each evaluation area such as Matutamachi in Matsusaka City and the aggregation result for each municipality such as Tsu City are displayed.

<Earthquake Damage Assumption (Preliminary Assumption) Processing> FIG.
The process of the computer (damage estimating unit 4 shown in FIG. 3) that provides the earthquake damage advance prediction function is shown in FIG.

First, the damage estimating unit 4 causes the user to set an earthquake fault (S1). The damage estimation unit 4 displays the fault setting screen shown in FIG. 4 to set an earthquake fault. In this setting, the position, shape, dip angle, and magnitude of the seismic fault are specified.

Next, the damage estimating unit 4 causes the user to set a multi-scenario (S2). The damage estimation unit 4 causes the user to change the fault position, the magnitude change, the month of occurrence, the time, and the like on the multi-scenario setting screen shown in FIG.

Next, the damage estimating unit 4 causes the user to set the evaluation area (S3). The user selects, for example, an evaluation area at the boundary of the town chome. In that case, the damage estimation unit 4
The evaluation area of the polygon data is set at the boundary of the town chome of each area, and the amplification factor for each evaluation area is set for each evaluation area by referring to the surface ground characteristic DB of the prior information DB shown in FIG.

Next, the damage estimating unit 4 calculates the earthquake motion on the engineering base plane according to the distance attenuation formula based on the position, shape, dip angle, and magnitude of the earthquake fault set in S1 (S4). ).

Next, the damage estimation unit 4 uses the amplification factor for each evaluation area to measure the measured seismic intensity, SI value, maximum acceleration,
The maximum velocity, the acceleration response spectrum, or the velocity response spectrum is calculated (S5). At this time, different amplification factors are referenced depending on the earthquake fault.

Next, the damage estimating unit 4 calculates the liquefaction risk (S6). Next, the damage estimation unit 4 predicts damage to the facility and personal damage (S7). Then, the damage estimation unit 4 displays the prediction result using GIS or the like (S
8).

<Earthquake damage estimation (immediately after-estimation) function> The earthquake damage estimation function is a function of predicting damage immediately after the occurrence of an earthquake based on observed earthquake motion. This earthquake damage prediction system is connected to the prefectural seismic intensity information network of the local government online to receive the seismic observation data.

However, in the seismic observation information reported from this prefectural seismic intensity information network, the installation density of seismographs differs for each local government. In normal municipalities, seismographs
One is installed every 10 km on average. On the other hand, for example, in Yokohama, etc., seismographs are installed every 2 km square.

Therefore, the present earthquake damage prediction system uses two methods of earthquake damage estimation depending on the installation density of seismographs. In other words, if the seismic observation network is rough, like the normal prefectural seismic intensity information network, the “fault setting method” is adopted, and for high-density seismic observation data,
The "base surface earthquake motion distribution setting method" is used.

[Fault setting method] The fault setting method is based on epicenter information (position of epicenter, depth, magnitude) reported by the Meteorological Agency and the like, and determines the position, strike, dip angle, and size of the fault. Of the ground surface, the ground motion is estimated by the same method as the pre-estimation, and the damage is estimated by correcting it to match the observation results from the earthquake observation system such as prefectural seismic intensity information network. Is.

A procedure for setting an earthquake fault based on the epicenter information will be described with reference to FIGS. 13 to 15.

The present earthquake damage prediction system, when an earthquake occurs far away from the damage estimation area, estimates it by a point source, and when it occurs in the vicinity, identifies an earthquake fault and estimates damage. In other words, for earthquakes with a large epicenter that occur near the damage estimation area, this earthquake damage prediction system is due to faults that have already been discovered. Is treated as included in the already discovered fault.

The conditions for performing this fault identification are shown below. (1) The epicenter location is near the damage estimation area. (2) The magnitude is 6 or more. (3) The depth of the epicenter is shallower than 20 km. (4) The epicenter location should be within 10 km to the left and right of the target fault. However, the implementation of the present invention is not limited to these numerical values.

FIG. 14 shows a processing flow in which the earthquake damage prediction system determines the above condition. As shown in Figure 14,
If any of the above conditions (1) to (3) is not satisfied, the earthquake damage prediction system does not execute fault identification,
Predict earthquake damage from point epicenters.

If only the above condition (4) is not satisfied, the earthquake damage prediction system executes fault identification exception processing. Then, when all of the above conditions (1) to (4) are satisfied, the earthquake damage prediction system executes the fault identification process.

FIG. 15 shows a procedure for discriminating whether the epicenter is distant or near the damage estimation area. In this determination, the damage estimation area,
For example, Osaka Prefecture is surrounded by a boundary line 10 as shown in FIG. 15, and a point 11 having the shortest distance between the area surrounded by the boundary line 10 and the epicenter position is obtained. Then, when the maximum acceleration of the substrate surface at the shortest distance point 11 is 50 Gal or more, the earthquake damage prediction system determines that the epicenter position is near the damage estimated area.

The outline of the procedure for identifying the fault will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 13 shows the processing of the earthquake damage estimation system as an image on a map. FIG.
In, the screens G0 to G4 show changes in the state due to the progress of processing.

On the screen G0 of FIG. 13, a fault 12 around Osaka is shown by a rectangle 12 or the like. Now, let us consider a case where an earthquake occurs with the epicenter in FIG. 13 as the epicenter. This epicenter information is input to the earthquake damage prediction system according to the epicenter information reported by the Meteorological Agency and the like.

Then, the earthquake damage prediction system searches the earthquake fault database and identifies the fault close to the epicenter. In this embodiment, this fault is called a scenario fault.
In FIG. 13, the fault indicated by the rectangle 12 on the screen G0 is specified as the scenario fault.

Next, the earthquake damage prediction system translates the scenario fault to the epicenter (screen G1).

Next, the earthquake damage prediction system obtains the fault length L from the magnitude. The relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and the length of the fault that caused the earthquake is determined by the following Matsuda equation (Equation 2) (Reference: For magnitude and cycle of earthquakes that occur from active faults, Tokihiko Matsuda, 197)
5-year earthquake II, 28, P269-P283).

[0138]

[Equation 2] log (fault length) = 0.6 (magnitude)-
2.9 (km) Then, the length of the scenario fault is divided by L / 2 from the center of the scenario fault and the length of the scenario fault is adapted to the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred (screen G2).

As a result of adapting the length of the epicenter, if the epicenter is located outside the obtained fault, the earthquake damage prediction system brings the fault close to the point epicenter (screen G3).

Next, the positions of the upper and lower ends of the fault are set (G4). The upper edge of the fault is a horizontal side close to the ground surface when the fault is assumed to be a rectangle in a three-dimensional space. The bottom of the fault is the horizontal side far from the ground surface (see Fig. 4). The upper and lower ends of this fault are recorded in the fault information database for each fault.

The fault is identified in this way, and the following data regarding the fault are obtained.・ Focus position (obtained from observation value and result of fault identification processing) ・ Magnitude (obtained from observation value) ・ Fault depth (obtained from fault identification processing) ・ Fault inclination (obtained from fault data of fault information database) Fig. 14 As shown in, when the earthquake damage prediction system satisfies the conditions (1) to (3) above and the epicenter location is more than 10 km away from the nearest fault location, fault identification is performed. Exception processing is executed by the following procedure.

(Procedure 1) A point epicenter is set (input) based on epicenter information reported by the Meteorological Agency or the like. Moreover, the earthquake damage prediction system holds the strike distribution data of the fault based on the fault data of the fault information database. The strike distribution data divides the fault into areas based on the distribution of the fault,
The strikes of faults are assigned to each area (region).

FIG. 16 shows an example of strike distribution data. Figure 1
An area is an area indicated by an arrow (a strike of a fault) in the same direction in 6. The earthquake damage prediction system determines in which area the point source is included, and determines the strike of the fault to be identified.

(Procedure 2) The length of the fault is calculated from the magnitude. This procedure is similar to that for fault identification.

(Procedure 3) The depth of the fault (lower edge) is 21 km.
Set as fixed. The top of the fault is set to 0km. The upper limit is set to 0 km in order to predict the damage in the worst case where the target area is closest to the epicenter.

(Procedure 4) The inclination of the fault is set perpendicular to the ground surface. This is to simplify the process.

By the above procedure, as in the case of fault identification, the epicenter position, magnitude, fault length, fault depth,
The fault inclination and strike can be obtained.

FIG. 17 shows the immediate estimation process by the fault setting method. FIG. 17 shows the processing of the computer (observation processing unit 3 shown in FIG. 3) that provides the immediate estimation function. When the observation processing unit 3 receives the seismic observation data having a predetermined seismic intensity or higher, the observation processing unit 3 activates the process shown in FIG.

In this process, first, the observation processing unit 3 fetches the seismic observation data from the terminal server through various lines, for example, a disaster prevention administrative radio line, a dedicated line, a telephone line, etc. (S10). This is, for example, the epicenter position announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency,
For example, seismic depth, magnitude, etc., seismic intensity observation information such as seismic intensity information network, etc. The observation processing unit 3 determines the seismic intensity scale and further activates the following processing.

That is, the observation processing unit 3 executes the seismic fault setting (S11). In this process, the strike of the fault,
The size of the fault is set according to the dip angle and magnitude.

Next, the observation processing section 3 applies the seismic fault information set in S11 to the distance attenuation formula to calculate the seismic motion on the engineering base plane (S12).

Next, the observation processing unit 3 obtains the ground motion on the engineering base plane for each earthquake observation point, and multiplies this by the amplification factor of the surface ground to obtain the ground surface ground motion (S13). At this time, the type of seismic motion to be obtained is determined for each observation point corresponding to the earthquake observation device at the observation point. For example, if the seismic observation device is a measurement seismic intensity meter, the seismic intensity is measured, and if the seismic observation device is an SI sensor, the SI value and the maximum acceleration, etc.

Next, the observation processing unit 3 obtains a coefficient for correcting the estimation result of S13 using the actual earthquake observation result (S14). In this processing, the observation processing unit 3 obtains the correction coefficient so that the error between the observed value and the predicted value is minimized when the observation results at the earthquake observation points are sufficiently collected.

FIG. 18 shows an example of this correction. In FIG.
The vertical axis is the observed value and the horizontal axis is the estimated value, and the relationship between the observed value and the estimated value is shown by a diamond mark. In such a case, the correction coefficient of the estimated value is obtained from the straight line shown as the correction value.

Next, the observation processing unit 3 corrects the ground surface seismic motion with the correction coefficient obtained in S13. For example, the estimation result of the earthquake motion is corrected for each town chome, and the earthquake motion (measured seismic intensity, maximum acceleration, SI value, etc.) is obtained (S1).
5).

Next, the observation processing section 3 predicts and displays damage based on the earthquake motion (S16). This procedure
This is similar to the earthquake damage pre-conditioning process shown in FIG.

[Base-plane seismic-motion distribution setting method] The base-plane seismic-motion distribution setting method is to divide the seismic observation result by the amplification factor to obtain the seismic motion on the engineering base surface, and interpolate the seismic motion distribution on the engineering base surface. It is a method of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface by multiplying the distribution of the ground motion by the amplification factor.

FIGS. 19 and 20 show the outline of the ground plane seismic motion distribution setting method. For example, in this method, first, FIG.
Based on the seismic observation results at points A and B, the seismic motions at positions C and D on the engineering base plane are obtained.

Next, from the ground motions at the points C and D, the ground motions at the desired positions, for example, positions E and F on the base plane corresponding to G and H are interpolated. Next, the position E of the substrate surface,
The ground motions at points G and H on the ground surface are estimated from the ground motion at F.

FIG. 20 is an example in which the distribution of seismic motion on the base plane is obtained in two dimensions. The procedure is the same as in the case of FIG.

Thus, by interpolating the earthquake observation results,
The seismic ground motion distribution setting method is an effective method when the seismic observation network is fine and seismometers are densely arranged in order to obtain the seismic motion at any point.

As the seismic observation data, the measurement result by the measurement seismograph (measurement seismic intensity), the measurement result by SI sensor (SI value and maximum acceleration), seismic motion waveform or acceleration response spectrum can be used.

FIG. 21 shows the procedure of the immediately after-estimation process by the base-plane seismic-motion distribution setting method executed by the observation processing unit 3 (see FIG. 3). When the observation processing unit 3 in FIG. 3 receives the seismic observation data with a predetermined seismic intensity or higher, the observation processing unit 3 activates the processing shown in FIG.

First, the observation processing section 3 takes in seismic observation data from various lines (S20). This seismic motion is either a measurement result by a measurement seismograph, a measurement result by an SI sensor, a seismic motion waveform, or an acceleration response spectrum.

Next, the observation processing section 3 calculates the seismic motion on the engineering base plane from the seismic observation data and the amplification factor (S).
21).

Then, the observation processing unit 3 interpolates the result of S21 to obtain the seismic motion distribution on the engineering base plane (S22).

Next, the observation processing section 3 multiplies the seismic motion distribution of S22 by the amplification factor to calculate the seismic motion distribution on the ground surface in the area where the earthquake damage is to be estimated (S23).

Next, the observation processing unit 3 predicts damage in the area and displays the result (S24).

<Decision support function for initial response> The purpose of the after-estimation function is to grasp the general condition of damage in the information gap period immediately after the occurrence of a large-scale earthquake, and build an initial response system based on it.
It is to support the decision making of the emergency response policy.

On the other hand, disasters occur on both holidays and nights, and it is necessary for limited personnel such as the watchman to respond promptly and appropriately. Therefore, each local government has prepared a disaster prevention plan based on the following materials.

1) Regional disaster prevention plan 2) Disaster response manual "Regional disaster prevention plan" is obligatory to be enacted by law, and prefectures and municipalities nationwide revise it every predetermined period. The "Regional Disaster Management Plan" is a basic policy regarding disaster prevention, and the detailed operational rules of each department are "Manual for XX Department Initial Activity".
It will be prepared as a "disaster response manual" like the above.

The more such a manual becomes, the larger it becomes, and the less convenient it becomes. Therefore, a computerized decision support function is required. The decision support function for initial response will be described below.

[Initial response automatic guidance] The initial response automatic guidance is a measure to be taken by each department as an initial response according to the regional disaster prevention plan and the initial response manual for each department based on the earthquake observation result and the earthquake damage estimation result. It automatically displays information such as initial contact, establishment of initial system, initial response flow, etc. to support decision making during initial operation. Each screen of the initial response automatic guidance is provided by the WWW server 2 shown in FIG. 3 through the LAN, the intranet or the Internet.

FIG. 22 shows a work procedure screen which is one of the screens of the initial response automatic guidance. On the business procedure screen, the flow of the business is shown and the department name in charge of the business is described. Also, if you click the department name in charge, you can see how the work is done for each department. For example, if the citizen's department of "startup of information communication room" is clicked, the screen at the bottom of FIG. 22 is further displayed.

[0175] In the municipality, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, No. 1 deployment: Several people's alert system No. 2 deployment: All fire departments, each department's contact system is No. 3 deployment: All staff system, etc. The system is defined and the role of each department is also defined. The initial response automatic guidance automatically displays these systems and roles.

During the initial response automatic guidance, the WWW server 2 acquires the earthquake observation result and damage estimation result from the data server 1. In addition, the initial response flow for each department is displayed on the information terminal.

[Electronic Manual] The electronic manual is an electronic manual of the local disaster prevention plan and initial response manual. When implementing a disaster response, this electronic manual will promptly search for and display work regulations and reporting forms to support decision making. In addition, in cooperation with the “Initial Response Automatic Guidance”, we will link to the detailed business rules, report format, and related items for each item to support decision making in the initial period.

FIG. 23 shows an example of an electronic manual (earthquake disaster response manual). This electronic manual is an electronic version of the necessary measures, flow, and forms for operating the disaster response headquarters.

The staff member of the local government can grasp the hierarchy of his / her own role from the menu bar, for example. In addition, it is possible to check the procedure and whether the procedure is performed by listing the procedure to be performed.

<Effect> As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction system, it is possible to assume the damage of the earthquake before the occurrence of the earthquake and take the countermeasures in advance.

According to this earthquake damage prediction system,
Since the earthquake fault is handled in three dimensions, it is possible to accurately predict the earthquake motion.

In addition, the present earthquake damage prediction system can freely set the position, shape, scale, earthquake occurrence month, season, or occurrence time of an earthquake fault by the multi-scenario function.

According to this earthquake damage prediction system,
The shape of the earthquake motion evaluation area and damage evaluation area can be set arbitrarily. As a result, for example, it is possible to understand the damage situation in units of administrative divisions such as town chome.

Further, in the present earthquake damage prediction system, the earthquake motion can be estimated by the measured seismic intensity, SI value, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, acceleration response spectrum, velocity response spectrum, or the like.

According to this earthquake damage prediction system,
It is possible to set the non-exceedance probability when calculating the ground motion on the basement surface using the distance attenuation formula.

Further, in the present earthquake damage prediction system, the amplification factor of the surface ground can be set to a different value according to the magnitude of the ground motion, and the rigidity of the ground and the nonlinearity of the damping constant can be handled.

Further, in the present earthquake damage prediction system, the amplification factor of the surface layer is different in consideration of the frequency characteristics of the seismic waveform of the seismic type, for example, long-distance type (trench type) and short-distance type (direct type). It can be set to a value, and the ground motion and the earthquake damage can be estimated in accordance with the actual earthquake.

Further, in the earthquake damage prediction system, the degree of liquefaction risk of the surface ground can be predicted from both the ground motion and the ground motion. Further, according to the earthquake damage prediction system, the estimation result of the earthquake motion can be corrected by the actual earthquake observation information, and the earthquake motion at the desired point can be accurately estimated.

According to this earthquake damage prediction system,
When an earthquake occurs, information on the epicenter and information on known seismic faults are compared to estimate the seismic fault that is the epicenter, and based on the seismic fault, it is possible to estimate the seismic motion distribution at a desired point. In addition, according to the earthquake damage prediction system, it is possible to obtain the seismic motion distribution on the base plane by using the seismic observation information at the limited points and estimate the seismic motion distribution at the desired point.

[0190]

As described above, according to the present invention,
It is possible to anticipate damage from an earthquake in advance and take measures against it. Further, according to the present invention, damage of an earthquake can be estimated with high accuracy and in a short time during the information blank period immediately after the occurrence of the earthquake.

[Brief description of drawings]

[Figure 1] Illustration of earthquake motion propagation

FIG. 2 is a functional configuration diagram of the earthquake disaster response support system according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[Fig. 3] System configuration diagram of earthquake disaster response support system

[Figure 4] Example of fault setting screen in the earthquake damage estimation function (prior assumption)

[Figure 5] Example of multi-scenario setting screen in the earthquake damage prediction function (prior assumption)

[Fig. 6] Data example of seismic response characteristics (amplification factor) of surface soil

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing non-linearity of physical property values of surface ground.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of a building damage probability.

[Figure 9] Display example of seismic motion distribution

FIG. 10: Display example of information list for each evaluation area

[Figure 11] Example of aggregation and display of forecast results by administrative unit

FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an earthquake damage estimation process.

[Fig. 13] Diagram showing an outline of the fault setting method in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediate estimation) (earthquakes near the fault)

FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing a condition determination process for identifying a fault.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a procedure for determining whether the epicenter is distant or near

FIG. 16 is a diagram showing correspondence between epicenter position and strike.

FIG. 17 is a flowchart showing an immediately after estimation process by the fault setting method.

FIG. 18 is a diagram showing a method for calculating a correction coefficient in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediate estimation)

[Fig. 19] Schematic diagram of the seismic distribution setting method for the base plane in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediate estimation) (No.)

[Fig. 20] Schematic diagram of the method for setting distribution of seismic motion on the base plane in the earthquake damage estimation function (immediate estimation)

FIG. 21 is a flow chart showing the immediately after estimation process by the ground plane seismic motion distribution setting method.

[Fig. 22] Screen example of automatic guidance function for initial response

FIG. 23: Example of electronic manual

[Explanation of symbols]

1 data server 2 WWW server 3 Observation processing unit 4 Damage estimation section

Continued front page    (72) Inventor Mamoru Mizutani             Stock No. 30-207, 25-26, Fukuromachi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo             Company Modern Engineering and Design             Within F-term (reference) 5C087 AA02 AA09 AA10 AA24 AA25                       BB12 BB65 BB74 DD02 DD31                       EE05 EE16 FF01 FF04 FF19                       FF20 GG07 GG09 GG11 GG14                       GG18 GG70

Claims (36)

[Claims] 1. A means for setting information on an earthquake fault, a means for calculating a ground motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the information on the earthquake fault, and a ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion on the reference ground. An earthquake damage prediction system comprising: a calculating unit; and a unit that displays predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface. 2. The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the information related to the earthquake fault specifies an earthquake fault shape in a three-dimensional space. 3. The information related to the earthquake fault includes a surface defining the earthquake fault, and information specifying the position of the earthquake fault, the shape of the earthquake fault, the angle of the surface with respect to the ground surface, and the strength of the earthquake motion. The earthquake damage prediction system according to Item 1. 4. The method according to claim 1, further comprising means for setting a magnification of ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, and the means for calculating the ground motion on the ground surface calculates the ground motion based on the magnification. Earthquake damage prediction system. 5. The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising means for inputting earthquake observation information at a predetermined point, and means for correcting the calculated ground motion on the ground surface based on the earthquake observation information. 6. A means for inputting seismic observation information, a means for calculating seismic motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the seismic observation information, and a desired position on the reference ground based on a result of calculating seismic motion on the reference ground. Of earthquake damage estimated by means for estimating the ground motion of the ground, means for calculating ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion estimated on the reference ground, and means for displaying predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface system. 7. A means for setting the magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, the means for calculating the ground motion on the reference ground or the means for calculating the ground motion on the ground surface is The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the earthquake motion is calculated based on a magnification. 8. The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 4, wherein different values are set for the magnification depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion. 9. The magnification is an earthquake fault and reference ground,
5. A different value is set depending on the positional relationship with the ground motion calculation point on the ground surface or the ground motion estimated point on the ground surface.
Or the earthquake damage prediction system described in 7. 10. The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the means for calculating the earthquake motion on the ground surface calculates the earthquake motion for each evaluation area divided by a polygon. 11. The earthquake according to claim 1, wherein the earthquake motion is described by a measured seismic intensity, SI value, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, acceleration response spectrum, or velocity response spectrum on the ground surface. Damage prediction system. 12. The earthquake damage prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined information is earthquake motion distribution for each area or damage prediction information for each area. 13. A surface of the ground surface is calculated based on the ground motion based on the ground motion, the computer setting information related to the earthquake ground fault, calculating the ground motion at a predetermined reference ground based on the information related to the ground fault. And a step of displaying predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface, the earthquake damage prediction method. 14. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 13, wherein the information related to the earthquake fault specifies an earthquake fault shape in a three-dimensional space. 15. The information related to the seismic fault, the seismic fault is defined by a plane, the position of the seismic fault, the shape of the seismic fault,
The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 13, including information defining an angle of the surface with respect to the ground surface and the strength of the earthquake motion. 16. The method according to claim 16, further comprising the step of setting a magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum composition of the surface ground, and the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface calculates the ground motion based on the magnification. The earthquake damage prediction method according to Item 13. 17. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 13, further comprising the steps of inputting earthquake observation information at a predetermined point and correcting the calculated ground motion on the ground surface based on the earthquake observation information. 18. A step of inputting seismic observation information by a computer, a step of calculating seismic motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the seismic observation information, and a step of calculating seismic motion on the reference ground based on the calculation result of seismic motion on the reference ground The steps of estimating the ground motion at a desired position, calculating the ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion estimated on the reference ground, and displaying predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface are executed. Earthquake damage prediction method. 19. A step of setting a magnification of ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, wherein the step of calculating the ground motion on the reference ground or the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface comprises: The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 18, wherein the earthquake motion is calculated based on the magnification. 20. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 16, wherein the magnification is set to a different value depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion. 21. The different values are set for the magnification depending on the positional relationship between the earthquake fault and the reference ground, and the ground motion calculation point on the ground surface or the ground motion estimated point on the ground surface. Earthquake damage prediction method. 22. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 13, wherein in the step of calculating the earthquake motion on the ground surface, the earthquake motion is calculated for each evaluation area divided by a polygon. . 23. The earthquake according to claim 13, wherein the seismic motion is described by a measured seismic intensity, SI value, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, acceleration response spectrum, or velocity response spectrum on the ground surface. Damage prediction method. 24. The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 13, wherein the predetermined information is an earthquake motion distribution for each area or damage prediction information for each area. 25. A program for causing a computer to predict earthquake damage, setting information related to an earthquake fault, calculating earthquake motion at a predetermined reference ground based on the information related to the earthquake fault, and A program having a step of calculating a ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion on the reference ground, and a step of displaying predetermined information based on the ground motion on the ground surface. 26. The program according to claim 25, wherein the information related to the earthquake fault specifies a seismic fault shape in a three-dimensional space. 27. The information related to the earthquake fault defines the earthquake fault with a plane, the position of the earthquake fault, the shape of the earthquake fault,
26. The program according to claim 25, which includes information defining an angle of the surface with respect to the ground surface and the strength of seismic motion. 28. A step of setting a magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum structure of the surface ground, and in the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface, the ground motion is calculated by the magnification. Item 25. The program according to Item 25. 29. The program according to claim 25, further comprising a step of inputting seismic observation information at a predetermined point, and a step of correcting the calculated ground motion on the ground surface based on the seismic observation information. 30. A program for estimating earthquake damage in a computer, the step of inputting earthquake observation information, the step of calculating the earthquake motion on a predetermined reference ground based on the earthquake observation information, and the earthquake motion on the reference ground Based on the calculation result of, the step of estimating the ground motion at the desired position on the reference ground, the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface based on the ground motion estimated on the reference ground, and the predetermined motion based on the ground motion on the ground surface. A program having the step of displaying information. 31. A step of setting a magnification of the ground motion on the ground surface with respect to the reference ground based on the stratum composition of the surface ground, wherein the step of calculating the ground motion on the reference ground or the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface comprises: The program according to claim 30, wherein seismic motion is calculated based on the magnification. 32. The program according to claim 28, wherein the magnification is set to a different value depending on the magnitude of the earthquake motion. 33. The value according to claim 28 or 31, wherein the magnification is set to a different value depending on the positional relationship between the earthquake fault and the reference ground, and the ground motion calculation point on the ground surface or the ground motion estimation point on the ground surface. Program of. 34. The program according to claim 25, wherein in the step of calculating the ground motion on the ground surface, the ground motion is calculated for each evaluation area divided by a polygon. 35. The program according to claim 25, wherein the seismic motion is described by a measured seismic intensity on the ground surface, SI value, maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, acceleration response spectrum, or velocity response spectrum. . 36. The program according to claim 25, wherein the predetermined information is earthquake motion distribution for each area or damage prediction information for each area.