JP3667019B2 - Image forming apparatus management method, apparatus, and management system - Google Patents

Description

[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention is Image formation Monitor jam occurrence information from the device and report automatically Image formation Device management method and device And management system About.
[0002]
[Prior art]
Conventionally, a report from a user has been the main means for knowing the occurrence of a jam in a copying apparatus. In view of this, recently, there has been proposed a copying apparatus management apparatus that monitors and automatically reports jam occurrence information from a copying apparatus at a remote location.
[0003]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
However, in this conventional copying apparatus management apparatus, when the occurrence of a jam is notified, the operating rate has been extremely lowered or has been completely stopped. There was a problem that the utilization rate of was low.
[0004]
The present invention has been made in view of the above-described problems of the prior art described above. Image formation The operating rate of the equipment can be greatly improved. Image formation Device management method and device And management system Is to provide.
[0006]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
In order to achieve the above object, a management method for an image forming apparatus according to claim 1 of the present invention is a management method for an image forming apparatus, and includes jam information including the number of recorded sheets when a jam occurs in the image forming apparatus. For the cumulative jam curve that shows the correspondence between the number of recorded sheets and the cumulative number of jams Specific components of the data A calculation step for performing filter processing for emphasis and obtaining a filter output graph, and a risk determination step for determining a risk related to the occurrence of a jam in the current number of recordings based on the filter output graph obtained in the calculation step It is characterized by having.
[0013]
In order to achieve the above object, a management apparatus for an image forming apparatus according to claim 5 of the present invention provides a recording obtained based on jam information including the number of sheets recorded when a jam occurs in the image forming apparatus. For the cumulative jam curve that shows the correspondence between the number of sheets and the cumulative number of jams Specific components of the data Calculation means for performing filter processing for emphasis and obtaining a filter output graph, and risk determination means for determining a risk related to occurrence of a jam in the current recording number based on the filter output graph obtained by the calculation means It is characterized by having.
[0016]
In order to achieve the above object, a management system according to claim 9 of the present invention is a management system including an image forming apparatus and a management apparatus that manages the image forming apparatus. The cumulative jam curve showing the correspondence between the number of recorded sheets and the cumulative number of jams obtained based on the jam information including the number of recorded sheets when the jam occurred in the forming apparatus. Specific components of the data Calculation means for performing filter processing for emphasis and obtaining a filter output graph, and risk determination means for determining a risk related to occurrence of a jam in the current recording number based on the filter output graph obtained by the calculation means The image forming apparatus includes a sheet conveyance control unit and a jam detection unit.
[0032]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[0033]
(First embodiment)
First, a first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a copying system having a copying machine management apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 1, reference numeral 100 denotes a copying apparatus (copying apparatus) for copying a specified number of documents. Means), 101 is a communication control apparatus, which is connected to the copying apparatus 100 to transmit and receive data. Reference numeral 102 denotes a public line as a communication line, and reference numeral 103 denotes a modem, which enables digital data transmission / reception through the public line 102. A host computer 104 stores and calculates data obtained from the copying apparatus 100.
[0034]
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the electric circuit of the copying apparatus 100. In FIG. 2, reference numeral 200 denotes a CPU (central processing unit) that controls the entire copying apparatus 100. A RAM (Random Access Memory) 201 is used as a working area for the CPU 200 and a storage area for control data. Reference numeral 202 denotes a ROM (Read Only Memory) for storing a control program. Reference numerals 203 and 204 denote first and second I / Os for performing sensor check and motor driving. Reference numeral 205 denotes a third I / O for communicating with the communication control apparatus 101.
[0035]
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the copying apparatus 100. In the figure, 300 is a real-time monitor for managing a plurality of tasks simultaneously. Reference numeral 301 denotes a paper transport task, which is a task for controlling from paper supply to paper discharge for a single paper (copy paper). A sequence control task 302 is a task for managing the entire copying apparatus 100. A communication task 303 is a task for communicating with the communication control apparatus 101.
[0036]
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the configuration of a paper transport unit provided inside the copying apparatus 100. In FIG. 4, 400 is a copy sheet to be transported, 401 is a drive motor, and the transport roller is driven to rotate to copy. The paper 400 is conveyed in the direction of the arrow. Reference numerals 402 and 403 denote first and second sensors for detecting the position of the copy sheet 400.
[0037]
Next, the jam detection processing operation of the copying apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a flowchart of a jam detection processing routine of the copying apparatus 100. The jam detection processing routine shown in FIG. 5 is executed by the CPU 200 in accordance with a control program stored in the ROM 202.
[0038]
When transporting the copy sheet 400, first, the drive motor 401 is turned on in step S501. Next, a first timer for monitoring the first sensor 402 is started in step S502, and a second timer for monitoring the second sensor 403 is started in the next step S503. Thereafter, in step S504, it is determined whether or not the first sensor 402 has been turned on (the copy sheet 400 has been detected) within the time specified by the first timer. If the first sensor 402 is turned on within the time specified by the first timer, it is determined in step S505 whether or not the first timer has expired. If the first timer does not expire, the process returns to step S504. If the first timer expires in step S505, it is determined that the jam has occurred and the process jumps to a jam processing routine.
[0039]
If the first sensor 402 does not turn on within the time specified by the first timer in step S504, the second sensor 403 turns off (OFF) within the time specified by the second timer in step S506. It is determined whether or not. If the second sensor 403 is turned off within the time specified by the second timer, it is determined in step S507 whether the second timer has timed out. If the second timer does not time out, the process returns to step S506, and it is again determined whether or not the second sensor 403 is turned off within the time specified by the second timer. If the second timer is up in step S507, it is determined that the jam has occurred, and the process jumps to the jam processing routine. If the second sensor 403 is not turned off within the time specified by the second timer in step S506, the processing operation is terminated after the drive motor 401 is turned off in step S508.
[0040]
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the configuration of a jam code. As shown in FIG. 6, the jam code is composed of a factor 601 and a sensor number 602, and the jam factor (delay or delay) is detected for the sensor number 602 detected as a jam. Retention) 601 is shown.
[0041]
FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing the internal configuration of the communication control apparatus 101, in which 700 is a CPU (central processing unit) that controls the entire communication control apparatus 101, and 701 is a first RAM (random access memory). ) Is a working area necessary for the CPU 700 to operate. Reference numeral 702 denotes a ROM (Read Only Memory) which stores a program for instructing the operation of the CPU 700. Reference numeral 703 denotes a first serial interface (I / O) for communication with a modem 706 described later. Reference numeral 704 denotes a second RAM (Random Access Memory) for storing jam information and various copy number counter values, and is backed up by a battery. Reference numeral 705 denotes a second serial interface (I / O) for communicating with the copying apparatus 100. Reference numeral 706 denotes a modem which enables digital data transmission / reception through the public line 102. A timer IC (integrated circuit) 707 manages time.
[0042]
In FIG. 7, reference numeral 708 denotes an example of a communication command between the copying apparatus 100 and the communication control apparatus 101. ID represents the type of command, length represents the data length, and sum is a bit for detecting a communication error. The communication command of the example shown here is transmitted from the copying apparatus 100 to the communication control apparatus 101 when a count pulse (ID = 01) and a jam (ID = 02) at the time of paper discharge occur on the copying control apparatus 101 side. Data. On the communication control device 101 side, the number of copies (number of copies) can be determined by counting the count pulse (ID = 01) at the time of paper discharge. In the case of jam (ID = 02), the type of jam can be determined by the jam code. .
[0043]
FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the communication control apparatus 101. In the figure, 800 is a real-time monitor for managing a plurality of tasks simultaneously. A status monitoring task 801 constantly monitors the status of the copying apparatus 100. A modem control task 802 controls the modem 706 to enable transmission / reception. Reference numeral 803 denotes a transmission task for transmitting data to the host computer 104.
[0044]
FIG. 9 is a flowchart of the state monitoring task 801 of the communication control apparatus 101. The state monitoring processing routine shown in FIG. 9 is executed by the CPU 700 in accordance with a control program stored in the ROM 702.
[0045]
First, in step S901, it is determined whether or not a jam has occurred in the copying apparatus 100. If a jam occurs, the counter value at that time is acquired in step S902, and the current time is acquired in the next step S903. In step S904, the counter value and the current time acquired in steps S902 and S903 are recorded in the jam recording table. Thereafter, in step S905, it is determined whether or not the number of jams recorded in the jam recording table has reached a specified value. If the number of jams recorded in the jam record table reaches a specified value, the transmission task 803 is activated in step S906, the host computer 104 is called, and the data recorded in the jam record table is recorded. After transmitting the contents, the process returns to step S901. If the number of jams recorded in the jam recording table does not reach the specified value in step S905, the process returns to step S901.
[0046]
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the contents recorded in the jam recording table. As shown in FIG. 10, “jam code, counter value, date, time” is recorded as one record every time a jam occurs. Yes.
[0047]
FIG. 11 is a flowchart of the transmission task 803 of the communication control apparatus 101. The data transmission processing routine shown in FIG. 11 is executed by the CPU 700 in accordance with a control program stored in the ROM 702.
[0048]
In the case of transmitting data, the transmission task 803 is activated, and first calls the host computer 104 in step S1101. In step S1102, it is determined whether or not the connection has been normally made. If the connection is successful, a password check is performed in step S1103, and it is determined in next step S1104 whether the check is OK (Check OK). If the check is OK, the contents recorded in the jam recording table are transmitted to the host computer 104 in step S1105. After completion of this data transmission, the line disconnection process is performed in step S1106, and then this processing operation is terminated. If the check is not OK in step S1104, the process skips step S1105 and proceeds to step S1106 to perform line disconnection processing. Then, the processing operation ends.
[0049]
On the other hand, if the connection is not normally made in step S1102, after adding 1 to the retry counter in step S1107, it is determined in step S1108 whether the number of retries is 5 or less. If the number of retries is 5 or less, after waiting (waiting) for a predetermined time in step S1109, the process returns to step S1101. If it is determined in step S1108 that the number of retries is not 5 or less, this processing operation ends without performing any processing.
[0050]
FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the host computer 104. In the figure, reference numeral 1200 denotes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that controls the entire host computer 104. A RAM (Random Access Memory) 1201 stores programs and data necessary for the CPU 1200 to perform data processing. Reference numeral 1202 denotes a hard disk (Hard Disk) that stores received data. All jam data is stored here. Reference numeral 1203 denotes a keyboard (Key Board) for the operator to give various instructions. Reference numeral 1204 denotes a display device (CRT Display) for the host computer 104 to output information. 1205 is a serial port for transmitting / receiving data to / from the modem 103.
[0051]
FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing processing of the host computer 104. The processing routine shown in FIG. 13 is executed by the CPU 1200 in accordance with a control program stored in the RAM 1201.
[0052]
Normally, the host computer 104 waits for an incoming signal from the modem 103, and first determines in step S1301 whether there is an incoming signal from the modem 103. If there is an incoming signal from the modem 103, a password check is performed in step S1302, and it is determined in step S1303 whether the check is OK (Check OK). If the check is OK, jam data is received in step S1304. After completion of the data reception, line disconnection processing is performed in step S1305, and jam data is stored in the hard disk 1202 in the next step S1306.
[0053]
After the jam data storage is completed, a diagnosis based on the jam data is performed in step S1307, and in a next step S1308, it is determined whether or not the diagnosis result based on the jam data in step S130 has reached a warning level. If the warning level has been reached, warning information is displayed on the display device 1204 in step S1309 to notify the operator, and the process returns to step S1301. In step S1308, the process returns to step S1301 even when the diagnosis result based on the jam data does not reach the warning level. On the other hand, if the check is not OK in step S1303, line disconnection processing is performed in step S1310, and the process returns to step S1301.
[0054]
Next, the jam diagnosis processing method will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. First, in step S1401, jam data from Assist obtained by the present system is stored in the hard disk 1202, which is a storage device. The jam data at this time is composed of four data of date, time, jam code and counter value in a format as shown in FIG. 15, and is stored in the hard disk 1202 for each model.
[0055]
Next, in step S1402, based on the jam data input in step S1401, an accumulated jam curve having a counter value on the horizontal axis and the cumulative number of jams on the vertical axis as shown in FIG. Create every time. In step S1403, the cumulative jam curve created in step S1402 is filtered using an FIR filter (finite impulse filter) in order to extract and emphasize a specific component of data. FIG. 17 shows the state of processing of the circle when the length of the FIR filter is 5000 sheets. In the figure, assuming that the filter output value in the past 5,000 sheets for point A is A ′ point, the point A ′ is calculated by the following equation (1).
[0056]
D1 * R1 + D2 * R2 + ... + Di * Ri + ... + Dn * Rn (1)
Di is the cumulative number of jams at each point when the filter length is divided into n-1 equal parts, and Ri is the filter output value at each point.
[0057]
A point A ′ is calculated by 100 every right along the cumulative jam curve while calculating A ′ point, and a filter output graph is created with the horizontal axis representing the counter value and the vertical axis representing the filter output value.
[0058]
In step S1404, the filter output graph obtained in step S1403 is subjected to fuzzy processing to calculate the individual risk. This is shown in FIG. In the figure, in order to obtain the individual risk, a membership function is created with the horizontal axis representing the filter value and the vertical axis representing the risk. In this case, the safety value is 0, the danger value is 1, and the degree of danger can be expressed between 0 and 1. An arithmetic process is performed on the filter output graph using this membership function, and an individual risk graph is calculated with the horizontal axis representing the counter value and the vertical axis representing the risk. In the example shown in FIG. 18, the filter value for the counter value Cx is Fx, and the risk is Sx. The processes in steps S1403 and S1404 are performed for FIR filters (3000, 5000, 10000, 20000) having a plurality of lengths, and the individual risk graphs are calculated.
[0059]
Next, in step S1405, as shown in FIG. 19, each individual risk level is weighted and subjected to arithmetic processing to calculate one risk level graph. In the example shown in FIG. 19, the weight is calculated by the following equation (2).
[0060]
Sx = 0.2Sx1 + 0.3Sx2 + 0.3Sx3 + 0.2Sx4 (2)
However, the coefficients (0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2) in the above equation (2) are provisional values, and it is actually necessary to obtain appropriate values based on the operation data.
[0061]
Next, in step S1406, the risk level is determined using the risk level graph shown in FIG. 20 obtained in step S1405. Here, the type of alarm is set to three types of red, yellow, and blue, and determination is performed using each membership function. This is shown in FIG. In the figure, the horizontal axis represents the degree of danger and the vertical axis represents the degree of match for each alarm. FIG. 21 shows that when the current risk level is St, the yellow level is Yt and the red level is Rt. If the degree of risk St exceeds a preset “user visit” level, a “user visit” message is output. In step S1407, the risk determination result in step S1406 is displayed on the display device 1204. Then, the processing operation is terminated. At this time, by providing a plurality of thresholds St for risk determination, it is possible to recognize a user who is potentially cautioned.
[0062]
Step S1408 in FIG. 14 indicates that when maintenance of the copying apparatus 100 is performed, it is necessary to change the filter processing after the maintenance. When maintenance of the copying apparatus 100 is performed, calculation is performed using only the filter values that exist after that time. In order to prevent a decrease in the reliability of risk determination due to a decrease in the number of filters, the threshold for risk determination is increased when the number of effective filters is small. The fact that there are generally few failures immediately after the maintenance of the copying apparatus 100 is one of the reasons for performing the processing in step S1408.
[0063]
Further, step S1409 in FIG. 14 indicates that the membership function of the degree of matching is corrected based on the result based on the false / missing report data 1410. This is shown in FIG. (A) of the figure shows a case where there is a false alarm, and (b) shows a case where there is a false alarm. Here, the false alarm means that the copying apparatus 100 is not abnormal when actually visited, even though the determination result of the degree of risk in the step S1406 is “user visit”. In addition, the misreport refers to a case where the user has received a maintenance request even though the “user visit” warning has not yet been issued. The erroneous / missing report data 1410 is input to the host computer 104 from the keyboard 1203 of the host computer 104, and the threshold value is optimized by applying feedback to the risk determination processing in step S1406. When a false alarm occurs, the membership function is corrected so that “user visit” is not output unless the risk level is higher. Further, when a misreport occurs, the membership function is corrected so that “user visit” is output at the current risk level. As a result, false / missing reports are reduced, and a more appropriate determination of the jam risk can be made.
[0064]
FIG. 23 shows a risk determination method after maintenance of the copying apparatus 100. In the figure, until the maintenance is entered, the risk level is determined based on the threshold value St1, but if it is within a predetermined counter value immediately after the maintenance is entered, the threshold value is greater than the threshold value St1 for the reason described above. The risk level is determined based on St2, and then the risk level is determined based on the normal threshold value St1.
[0065]
(Second Embodiment)
Next, a storage medium used in the copying apparatus management apparatus of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 24, the storage medium for storing the control program for controlling the copying apparatus management apparatus having the jam diagnosis / prediction function using the host computer includes at least “jam occurrence detection module” and “copying operation”. “Number of times detection module”, “Jam information storage module”, “First calculation module”, “Second calculation module”, “Danger level determination module”, “Danger level output module”, “Management module”, “Communication control” The program codes of the modules “module”, “first communication module”, “second communication module”, “threshold processing module”, and “state determination module” may be stored.
[0066]
Here, the “jam occurrence detection module” is a program module for detecting a jam occurrence in the copying apparatus 100 that performs copy control. The “copying operation number detection module” is a program module for detecting the number of copying operations of the copying apparatus 100. The “jam information storage module” is a program module for storing a jam code indicating the type of jam that has occurred and the latest value of the number of copying operations. The “first arithmetic module” is a program module for obtaining an accumulated jam curve based on data stored by the jam information storage module. The “second arithmetic module” is a program module for performing FIR filter (finite impulse filter) processing based on the cumulative jam curve obtained by the first arithmetic module and obtaining the FIR filter processing result. The “risk level determination module” is a program module for determining the current risk level from the contents of the FIR filter processing result obtained by the second calculation module. The “risk level output module” is a program module for outputting the risk level determined by the risk level determination module. The “threshold value processing module” is a program module for performing threshold value processing on the obtained risk level. Furthermore, the “status determination module” is a program module for performing status determination based on the threshold value processed by the threshold value processing module.
[0067]
The host computer 104 executes the jam information storage module, the first calculation module, the second calculation module, the risk determination module, and the risk output module.
[0068]
【The invention's effect】
As detailed above, the present invention Image formation Device management method and device And management system According to Image formation Express the state of the equipment on a scale of risk. It can be managed appropriately. Also, Based on a certain threshold Image formation By determining the state of the apparatus and outputting the determination result, it is possible to determine the background leading to the failure at an early stage, and to perform maintenance in a timely and appropriate manner before the operation of the image forming apparatus stops. Image formation There exists an effect that the operation rate of an apparatus can be improved significantly.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a copying system having a copying machine management apparatus according to a first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an electric circuit configuration of a copying apparatus in the system.
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a software configuration of the copying apparatus.
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a copy sheet conveyance unit of the copy apparatus.
FIG. 5 is a flowchart of a jam detection processing routine of the copying apparatus.
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a jam code in the copying apparatus.
FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing an electric circuit configuration of a communication control device in the system.
FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a software configuration of the communication control apparatus.
FIG. 9 is a flowchart of a status monitoring task of the communication control apparatus.
FIG. 10 is a view showing the contents of a jam recording table in the communication control apparatus.
FIG. 11 is a flowchart of a communication task of the communication control apparatus.
FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a configuration of a host computer in the system.
FIG. 13 is a flowchart of processing in the host computer.
FIG. 14 is a flowchart of jam diagnosis processing in the host computer.
FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a configuration of jam data in the system.
FIG. 16 is a diagram showing a cumulative jam curve in the system.
FIG. 17 is a diagram showing a state of filter processing in the system.
FIG. 18 is a diagram showing a state of individual risk calculation processing in the system.
FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating a process of weighting individual risks in the system.
FIG. 20 is a diagram showing a risk graph in the system.
FIG. 21 is a diagram showing how risk is determined in the same system.
FIG. 22 is a diagram showing how the membership function is corrected in the same system.
FIG. 23 is a diagram illustrating a risk determination method after maintenance of the copying apparatus in the system.
FIG. 24 is a diagram showing a program code of each module stored in the storage medium of the present invention.
[Explanation of symbols]
100 Copying machine
101 Communication control device
102 Public line
103 modem
104 Host computer
200 CPU
201 RAM
202 ROM
203 First I / O
204 Second I / O
205 3rd I / O
300 Real-time monitor
301 Copy Paper Transport Task
302 Sequence control task
303 Communication task
400 copy paper
401 motor
402 First sensor
403 Second sensor
700 CPU
701: first RAM
702 ROM
703 First I / O
704 Second RAM
705 Second I / O
706 modem
800 Real-time monitor
801 Status monitoring task
802 Modem control task
803 Send task
1200 CPU
1201 RAM
1202 hard disk
1203 keyboard
1204 display
1205 serial port

Claims (12)

An image forming apparatus management method, comprising:
A filter for emphasizing a specific component of data with respect to a cumulative jam curve indicating a correspondence between the number of recorded sheets and the cumulative number of jams obtained based on jam information including the number of recorded sheets at the time of occurrence of a jam in the image forming apparatus A calculation step for performing processing to obtain a filter output graph;
An image forming apparatus management method comprising: a risk determination step of determining a risk related to the occurrence of a jam in the current number of recordings based on the filter output graph obtained in the calculation step. A determination step of determining whether or not a service person visit is necessary based on comparing the degree of risk with a threshold value of a user visit;
The image forming apparatus management method according to claim 1, further comprising: an output step of outputting a message when it is determined in the determination step that the degree of risk exceeds the threshold value.   The image forming apparatus management method according to claim 2, further comprising: a threshold setting step for setting the threshold higher if the predetermined counter is within a predetermined counter after maintenance of the image forming apparatus.   The image forming apparatus management method according to claim 1, wherein the risk determination step performs determination according to fuzzy theory using a membership function. A filter for emphasizing a specific component of data with respect to a cumulative jam curve indicating a correspondence between the number of recorded sheets and the cumulative number of jams obtained based on jam information including the number of recorded sheets at the time of occurrence of a jam in the image forming apparatus A computing means for performing processing to obtain a filter output graph;
A management device for an image forming apparatus, comprising: a risk level determination unit that determines a risk level related to the occurrence of a jam in the current recording number based on the filter output graph obtained by the calculation unit. A determination means for determining whether or not a service person visit is necessary based on comparing the degree of risk with a threshold value of a user visit;
The image forming apparatus management apparatus according to claim 5, further comprising: an output unit configured to output a message when the determination unit determines that the degree of risk exceeds the threshold value.   The image forming apparatus management apparatus according to claim 6, further comprising a threshold setting unit configured to set the threshold to a high value within a predetermined counter after maintenance of the image forming apparatus.   The image forming apparatus management apparatus according to claim 5, wherein the risk determination unit performs a determination according to a fuzzy theory using a membership function. A management system including an image forming apparatus and a management apparatus that manages the image forming apparatus,
The management device
A filter for emphasizing a specific component of data with respect to a cumulative jam curve indicating a correspondence between the number of recorded sheets and the cumulative number of jams obtained based on jam information including the number of recorded sheets at the time of occurrence of a jam in the image forming apparatus A computing means for performing processing to obtain a filter output graph;
A risk degree judging means for judging a risk degree related to occurrence of a jam in the current recording number based on the filter output graph obtained by the computing means,
The image forming apparatus includes:
Paper transport control means;
And a jam detection means. A determination means for determining whether or not a service person visit is necessary based on comparing the degree of risk with a threshold value of a user visit;
The management system according to claim 9, further comprising: an output unit that outputs a message when the determination unit determines that the degree of risk exceeds the threshold value.   The management system according to claim 10, further comprising a threshold setting unit configured to set the threshold higher if the predetermined counter is not exceeded after maintenance of the image forming apparatus.   The management system according to any one of claims 9 to 11, wherein the risk determination means performs determination according to a fuzzy theory using a membership function.

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