JP2020003373A - Lifetime prediction method, lifetime prediction device, and lifetime prediction device program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a lifetime prediction method, a lifetime prediction device and a lifetime prediction device program capable of more precisely predicting a remaining lifetime of an object component.SOLUTION: A lifetime prediction method includes: a material deterioration data acquisition step 2 of acquiring a deterioration parameter when stress is applied to an object component with respect to lapse time when stress is applied; a component measurement data acquisition step 3 of acquiring the amount of deformation of an object component; an amount-of-damage estimation step 4 of estimating the amount of damage on the basis of the deterioration parameter when stress is applied acquire by the material deterioration data acquisition step and the amount of deformation of an object component acquired by the component measurement data acquisition step; and a remaining lifetime estimation step 5 of estimating a remaining lifetime by calculating a difference between the amount of damage estimated by the amount-of-damage estimation step and a preset amount of damage.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present embodiment relates to a life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a program for a life prediction device for predicting the life of a deteriorated component.

  Structural components of high-temperature power generation equipment used for thermal power generation and the like are used at high temperatures under stress. For this reason, the material of the structural component is likely to deteriorate, and measures such as repair or replacement of the structural component are performed according to the state of deterioration. There is known a method of estimating a degree of deterioration of a structural component and estimating a remaining life until a catastrophic damage in order to determine a repair time or a replacement time of the structural component.

JP 2001-124763 A JP 2014-006048 A

  Failure of high-temperature power generation equipment used for thermal power generation or the like due to deterioration of structural parts is based on the estimation of the remaining life of structural parts (hereinafter collectively referred to as target parts) for which the remaining life is estimated to deteriorate. Repair or replacement is performed on the target part having a short length, thereby preventing the part.

  In the conventional method of estimating the remaining life, it cannot be said that the remaining life of the target component can be necessarily predicted with high accuracy. The conventional method evaluates the aging of a target component by a deterioration parameter with respect to an elapsed time at a constant temperature under no stress load. On the other hand, the actual target component is used not in a constant temperature under non-stress load but in an environment in which stress is applied and there is a temperature change.

  A target component in a high-temperature power generation device used for thermal power generation or the like has a high possibility of being deformed due to local stress in a stress concentration portion and being damaged or broken. When the target component is deformed, deterioration parameters such as mechanical properties change. However, in the conventional method for estimating the remaining life, the deterioration is predicted by the deterioration parameter with respect to the elapsed time at a constant temperature when no stress is applied and when no stress is applied. For this reason, there has been a problem that the remaining life of the target component is not accurately predicted.

  Since the prediction of the remaining life of the target component is not performed with high accuracy, if the target component breaks or breaks down before repair or replacement, etc., it is unpredictable for high temperature power generation equipment used for thermal power generation etc. Failure occurs, which is not desirable. On the other hand, since the remaining life of the target component is not accurately predicted, it is uneconomical to perform repair or replacement of the target component with a long remaining life at an early stage. For this reason, high-temperature power generation equipment used for thermal power generation or the like is unnecessarily stopped, which is not desirable.

  An object of the present embodiment is to provide a life prediction method, a life prediction apparatus, and a program for a life prediction apparatus that can predict the remaining life of a target component with higher accuracy.

The life prediction method of the present embodiment is characterized by having the following procedure.
(1) A material deterioration data acquisition procedure for acquiring a stress deterioration parameter of a target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load.
(2) A part measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring the deformation amount of the target part.
(3) A damage amount estimating procedure for estimating a damage amount based on the stress-time deterioration parameter obtained in the material deterioration data obtaining step and the deformation amount of the target part obtained in the part measurement data obtaining step.
(4) A remaining life estimation procedure for calculating a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimation procedure and a preset damage amount to predict a remaining life.

  Further, a life prediction device and a program for the life prediction device having the features corresponding to the above are also aspects of the present embodiment.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a life prediction device according to a first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a flow of a life prediction device program according to the first embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an operation relating to a damage amount estimation procedure according to the first embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining an operation related to acquisition of a stress-time degradation parameter by a second degradation data acquisition procedure according to the first embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining an operation related to acquisition of a stress-time degradation parameter by a first degradation data acquisition procedure and a second degradation data acquisition procedure according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an operation related to prediction of a remaining life by a remaining life estimation procedure according to the first embodiment.

[1. First Embodiment]
[1-1. Constitution]
With reference to FIG. 1, a life prediction device 1 will be described as an example of the present embodiment. The life prediction device 1 is a device configured by a computer or the like. The life prediction device 1 is installed in a power management room or the like that manages a high-temperature power generation device including a target component whose remaining life is to be estimated.

(Overall configuration of life expectancy prediction device 1)
The present life prediction device 1 includes a material deterioration data acquisition unit 2, a part measurement data acquisition unit 3, a damage amount estimation unit 4, and a remaining life estimation unit 5. Each part of the life expectancy predicting apparatus 1 is configured by an arithmetic unit in a computer or a software module. Further, each unit of the life estimating apparatus 1 may be realized by an individual computer device, a microcomputer chip, or hardware.

  The life prediction device 1 obtains the stress-time degradation parameter of the target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated, obtains the deformation amount of the target component, estimates the damage amount of the target component, and predicts the remaining life.

(Material deterioration data acquisition unit 2)
The material deterioration data acquisition unit 2 includes a first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 and a second deterioration data acquisition unit 22. The first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 and the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 are configured by an operation unit in a computer, a software module, an individual computer device, a microcomputer chip, or hardware.

  The first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 receives a chemical component corresponding to the target component and a deterioration parameter of the sample manufactured according to the manufacturing procedure at the time of non-stress load. The first deterioration data obtaining unit 21 obtains a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a non-stress load, and outputs the non-stress deterioration parameter to the second deterioration data obtaining unit 22. I do.

  The data on the deterioration parameters of the sample under non-stress load is provided by the operator by deteriorating the chemical components corresponding to the target parts and the samples (hereinafter sometimes referred to as simple aging deterioration materials) manufactured by the manufacturing procedure. Created. The simple aging deterioration material is held at a predetermined temperature for a predetermined time using a heating method such as a heat treatment furnace, and is acceleratedly degraded.

  The deterioration parameter is a numerical value representing the physical property of the target component. Degradation parameters include crystal grain size, size of precipitates and voids, microcracks, metallographic information such as the degree of oxidation, mechanical properties such as hardness, Young's modulus, tensile strength, linear expansion coefficient, and thermal conductivity At least one of physical properties such as rate, electric conductivity, specific heat, and thermal diffusivity is selected.

  The non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at the predetermined temperature under the non-stress load is derived from the operating temperature and the operating time. Derivation of the non-stress deterioration parameter from the operating temperature and the operating time is performed using any of the Larson-Miller method, the Manson-Haferd method, and the Orr-Sherby-Dorn method.

  The first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 acquires a non-stress deterioration parameter of a target component based on a material deterioration parameter predicted based on data relating to deterioration of the simple aging deterioration material. The acquired non-stress degradation parameter is output to the second degradation data acquisition unit 22.

  The second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 includes a chemical component corresponding to the target component, a deterioration parameter at the time of stress loading of a sample manufactured according to the manufacturing procedure, and a non-stress deterioration obtained by the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21. The parameters are entered. The second deterioration data obtaining unit 22 obtains the stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time when the stress is applied, and outputs the stress deterioration parameter to the damage estimation unit 4.

  The stress deterioration parameter is created by an operator by deteriorating a chemical component corresponding to the target component and a sample subjected to a stress load (hereinafter, sometimes referred to as a stress aging deterioration material) manufactured according to manufacturing procedures. . The stress-aging deterioration material is subjected to a stress load, held at a predetermined temperature for a predetermined time by using a heating method such as a heat treatment furnace, and acceleratedly degraded.

  As the stress load, at least one of compression, tension, and shear is applied uniaxially or multiaxially. The stress load may be a force having an amplitude, or a force that is kept constant for a certain time and a force that has an amplitude for a certain time may be repeated. Further, the stress load may be a force that decays with time. The data relating to the deterioration of the stress-aged material at the time of stress loading is composed of, for example, macro strain and Vickers hardness shown in FIG. 4 obtained by a creep rupture test.

  The stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a stress load is derived from the operating temperature and the operating time. Derivation of the stress deterioration parameter from the operating temperature and the operating time is performed using any of the Larson-Miller method, the Manson-Haferd method, and the Orr-Sherby-Dorn method.

  The second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 acquires the stress degradation parameter of the target component based on the non-stress degradation parameter acquired by the first degradation data acquisition unit 21. The acquired stress-time degradation parameter is output to the damage amount estimation unit 4.

(Part measurement data acquisition unit 3)
The component measurement data acquisition unit 3 includes a first measurement data acquisition unit 31 and a second measurement data acquisition unit 32. The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 and the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 are configured by an operation unit in a computer, a software module, an individual computer device, a microcomputer chip, or hardware.

  The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 receives an input of the degree of deterioration of the target component whose remaining life is to be estimated. The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires the degree of deterioration of the target component whose remaining life is to be estimated, and outputs the degree of deterioration to the second measurement data acquisition unit 32.

  The target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated is any one of a turbine and a boiler for a high-temperature power plant. The target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated is, specifically, one of a turbine rotor, a moving and stationary blade, a casing, a bolt, a valve, and piping, which are components operated at a high temperature. The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires deterioration parameters of these target devices and components measured using a non-destructive or destructive technique.

  As the non-destructive method, at least one of an ultrasonic method, an electromagnetic method, a penetration method, an X-ray diffraction method, and a replica method is used. As a destructive technique, at least one of a hardness test, a tensile test, a creep test, and a fatigue test is used. The degree of deterioration obtained by the first measurement data obtaining unit 31 is desirably the degree of deterioration of a stress-concentrated portion or a deformed portion of the target component.

  The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires the degree of deterioration of the target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated. The acquired degree of deterioration is output to the second measurement data acquisition unit 32.

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 receives the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 and the deformation amount of the target component measured by the operator. The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires the deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31, and outputs the deformation amount of the target component to the damage estimation unit 4. .

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires a deformation amount of a stress concentration portion or a deformation portion of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31. This is because the stress concentrated portion or the deformed portion often becomes a portion that causes fatal damage to the component. The stress concentration portion is, for example, a rotor center hole, a curvature portion of a wheel, a casing, a valve, piping, or the like in a turbine, a rotor, an implanted portion of a moving and stationary blade, a screw bottom of a bolt, and the like.

  The amount of deformation is the amount of strain in the material caused by the applied stress, and varies depending on the type of the applied stress. The deformation amount includes a compression strain, a tensile strain, a shear strain, and the like. In the case of measurement using a test piece, the amount of deformation includes elongation and drawing in addition to the above. The amount of deformation is measured by a non-destructive actual machine. Alternatively, the deformation amount may be calculated by analytically estimating using a model imitating an actual machine. Non-destructive measurement methods include a strain gauge attachment method, a grid method, and an image correlation method. As a method of analytically estimating, there is an elastic-plastic analysis using a finite element method.

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31. The acquired deformation amount of the target component is output to the damage amount estimation unit 4.

(Damage amount estimation unit 4)
The damage amount estimating unit 4 is configured by an arithmetic unit, a software module, an individual computer device, a microcomputer chip, or hardware in a computer.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 estimates the damage amount based on the stress-time deterioration parameter obtained by the material deterioration data obtaining unit 2 and the deformation amount of the target component obtained by the component measurement data obtaining unit 3, and calculates the damage amount. It outputs to the remaining life estimation unit 5.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 corrects the stress degradation parameter acquired by the material degradation data acquiring unit 2 based on the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquiring unit 3 as shown in FIG. Estimate the amount of damage at the evaluation point.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 grasps the relationship between the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained by the first deterioration data obtaining unit 21 and the stress deterioration parameter obtained by the second deterioration data obtaining unit 22. It is desirable that the relationship between the non-stress deterioration parameter and the stress deterioration parameter can be described by a simple mathematical expression using the deterioration parameter, the temperature-time parameter, and the deformation amount.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 calculates a damage amount which is a parameter of temperature versus time derived from the degree of deterioration of the target component acquired by the first measurement data acquiring unit 31. Further, the damage amount estimating unit 4 uses the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the second measurement data acquiring unit 32 to calculate a damage amount to be corrected based on the deformation amount.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 estimates the damage amount based on the stress deterioration parameter acquired by the material deterioration data acquiring unit 2 and the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquiring unit 3. The estimated damage amount is output to the remaining life estimation unit 5.

(Remaining life estimation unit 5)
The remaining life estimating unit 5 is configured by an arithmetic unit in a computer, a software module, an individual computer device, a microcomputer chip, or hardware.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates the difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a preset damage amount, predicts the remaining life, and outputs the result.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a predetermined fatal damage amount of the target component. The fatal damage amount is a parameter such as a time until a fatal damage that requires repair or replacement of the target component, for example, plastic deformation, crack initiation, breakage, and the like. For example, the amount of fatal damage is a time to reach 1% creep strain or a rupture time in the case of creep damage.

  The amount of fatal damage is determined based on data obtained by an experiment performed in advance or estimation based on experimental data. The calculated remaining life of the target component is the difference between the fatal damage amount and the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimation unit 4.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a preset fatal damage amount, and predicts a remaining life. The predicted remaining life is output from the life prediction device 1.

  The above is the configuration of the life estimation device 1.

[1-2. Action]
Next, an outline of the procedure of the life prediction method of the present embodiment, the operation of the life prediction apparatus 1, and the operation of the program for the life prediction apparatus will be described with reference to FIGS. A life prediction method for predicting the life of a deteriorated component is performed by the procedure shown in FIG. The program for the life expectancy prediction device operates in the steps shown in FIG.

  By using the life prediction method of the present embodiment, the worker obtains the stress deterioration parameter of the target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated, obtains the deformation amount of the target component, estimates the damage amount of the target component, and Estimate component life. The life of the deteriorated component is predicted by using the life predicting device 1. The life prediction device 1 operates in the steps shown in FIG. 2 and predicts the life of a deteriorated component. Hereinafter, as an example of the prediction of the life of the deteriorated component, a case will be described in which the remaining life of the implanted portion of the Ni-base heat-resistant alloy for a turbine rotor where stress concentration is assumed until the fracture due to creep damage is estimated.

(Step S01: First Deterioration Data Acquisition Procedure: Obtain Non-Stress Deterioration Parameter)
First, the worker acquires the non-stress degradation parameter using the first degradation data acquisition unit 21 of the material degradation data acquisition unit 2 of the life prediction device 1.

  The worker performs heat aging with a heat treatment furnace using a chemical component corresponding to a target component of the actual machine and a Ni-based alloy block manufactured according to manufacturing procedures. The hardness of the simple aging deterioration material after holding at a predetermined temperature and for a predetermined time is measured by a Vickers hardness meter. The temperature-time parameter is calculated using the Larson-Miller method for the held predetermined temperature and time. The data of the Vickers hardness and the temperature-time parameter thus obtained are created under a plurality of conditions.

  The data thus created is input to the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 by a worker as a deterioration parameter at the time of non-stress load. The first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 stores, in the non-stress, which is data relating to the deterioration of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a non-stress load, of the chemical component corresponding to the target component and the sample manufactured by the manufacturing procedure. A degradation parameter under load is input. The first deterioration data obtaining unit 21 obtains the non-stress deterioration parameter and outputs it to the second deterioration data obtaining unit 22.

  The non-stress deterioration parameter is output by a telegram from the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 via a communication line. The non-stress deterioration parameter may be temporarily stored in an external storage device, and may be input to the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 by connecting the external storage device.

  Data relating to the deterioration of the sample under non-stress load is created by an operator by deteriorating the chemical component corresponding to the target component and the simple aging deterioration material manufactured according to the manufacturing procedure. The simple aging deterioration material is held at a predetermined temperature for a predetermined time using a heating method such as a heat treatment furnace, and is acceleratedly degraded.

  The deterioration parameter is a numerical value representing the physical property of the target component. Degradation parameters include crystal grain size, size of precipitates and voids, microcracks, metallographic information such as the degree of oxidation, mechanical properties such as hardness, Young's modulus, tensile strength, linear expansion coefficient, and thermal conductivity At least one of physical properties such as the rate, electric conductivity, specific heat, and thermal diffusivity may be used.

  The non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at the predetermined temperature under the non-stress load is derived from the operating temperature and the operating time. The derivation of the non-stress deterioration parameter from the operating temperature and the operating time may be performed using any of the Larson-Miller method, the Manson-Haferd method, and the Orr-Sherby-Dorn method.

  The first deterioration data obtaining unit 21 obtains a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component based on data relating to deterioration of the simple aging deterioration material. The acquired non-stress degradation parameter is output to the second degradation data acquisition unit 22.

(Step S02: second deterioration data obtaining procedure: obtaining stress deterioration parameter)
Next, the worker acquires the stress-time degradation parameter using the second degradation data acquisition unit 22 of the material degradation data acquisition unit 2 of the life prediction device 1. The second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 includes a chemical component corresponding to the target component, a deterioration parameter of the sample manufactured according to the manufacturing procedure when a stress is applied, and a non-stress state obtained by the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21. Deterioration parameters are input.

  An operator performs a creep rupture test in which a plurality of Ni-base alloys prepared according to the manufacturing procedure and chemical components corresponding to the target parts of the actual machine are processed into creep test piece shapes and held under a constant uniaxial stress. After holding at a predetermined temperature and for a predetermined time, the cross-sectional area at a plurality of positions within the reference point is measured for the fractured test piece, and macro strain is obtained from the aperture value of each cross section. Further, the hardness at a plurality of positions between the gauge points where the macro distortion is obtained is measured by a Vickers hardness meter. Measurement data of Vickers hardness and macro strain are created under a plurality of conditions.

  The created data is input to the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 by the operator as data relating to the deterioration under stress, which is the stress deterioration parameter. The chemical component corresponding to the target component and the stress degradation parameter of the sample manufactured by the manufacturing procedure are input to the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22. Further, the non-stress degradation parameter acquired by the first degradation data acquisition unit 21 is input to the second degradation data acquisition unit 22. The second deterioration data obtaining unit 22 obtains the stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time when the stress is applied, and outputs the stress deterioration parameter to the damage estimation unit 4.

  The stress deterioration parameter is output by a telegram from the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 via a communication line. The stress-time degradation parameter may be temporarily stored in an external storage device, and may be input to the damage amount estimation unit 4 by connecting the external storage device.

  The data relating to the deterioration of the sample under the stress load is created by the operator by deteriorating the chemical component corresponding to the target part and the sample stress aging material subjected to the stress load manufactured according to the manufacturing procedure. The stress-aging deterioration material is subjected to a stress load, held at a predetermined temperature for a predetermined time by using a heating method such as a heat treatment furnace, and acceleratedly degraded.

  The stress load may be such that at least one of compression, tension and shear is applied uniaxially or multiaxially. The stress load may be a force having an amplitude, or a force that is kept constant for a certain time and a force that has an amplitude for a certain time may be repeated. Further, the stress load may be a force that decays with time.

  The data relating to the deterioration under the stress load indicates the relationship between the macro strain and the Vickers hardness when the temperature and the pressure are varied, for example, as shown in FIG. Data relating to deterioration under stress is obtained, for example, by a creep rupture test of a stress-aged material. The data relating to the deterioration under the stress load shown in FIG. 4 shows the correlation between the Vickers hardness and the macro strain, and shows that the hardness and the macro strain of the Ni-based heat-resistant alloy in the present embodiment are in a linear relationship. The data relating to the deterioration under the stress load may indicate the relationship between the compressive strain, the tensile strain, the shear and the Vickers hardness.

  The stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a stress load is derived from the operating temperature and the operating time. Derivation of the stress deterioration parameter from the operating temperature and the operating time may be performed using any of the Larson-Miller method, the Manson-Haferd method, and the Orr-Sherby-Dorn method. The stress deterioration parameter, which is data relating to the deterioration of the stress aging material during stress loading, is configured based on, for example, the macro strain and the Larson-Miller method shown in FIG. FIG. 4 shows the correlation between the Vickers hardness and the temperature-time parameter obtained in step S01 and step S02, and the effect of macro distortion on it.

  The second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 acquires the stress degradation parameter of the target component based on the non-stress degradation parameter acquired by the first degradation data acquisition unit 21. The acquired stress-time degradation parameter is output to the damage amount estimation unit 4.

(Step S03: First measurement data acquisition procedure: Acquire the degree of deterioration of the target component)
Next, the worker acquires the degree of deterioration of the target component by using the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 of the component measurement data acquisition unit 3 of the life estimation device 1. The degree of deterioration of the target component whose remaining life is to be estimated is input to the first measurement data acquisition unit 31.

  The operator measures the hardness of the turbine rotor of the actual machine, which is the target component to be evaluated, in the vicinity of the implanted portion using a measuring device such as an echo tip hardness meter. At this time, it is desirable that the portion where the hardness is measured is a stress concentration portion or a deformed portion to be evaluated. When the hardness of the evaluation target location cannot be directly measured, it is desirable that the location be exposed to the same temperature condition in the vicinity of the evaluation target location. The measured hardness is regarded as the degree of deterioration.

  The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires the degree of deterioration of the target component whose remaining life is to be estimated, and outputs the degree of deterioration to the second measurement data acquisition unit 32.

  The degree of deterioration of the target component is output by a telegram from the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 via a communication line. The degree of deterioration of the target component may be temporarily stored in an external storage device, and may be input to the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 by connecting the external storage device.

  The target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated is any one of a turbine for a high-temperature power plant, a turbine rotor that is a component operating at a high temperature that is a component of a boiler, a moving and stationary blade, a casing, a bolt, a valve, and piping. Good. The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires deterioration parameters of these target devices and components measured using a non-destructive or destructive technique.

  As the non-destructive method, at least one of an ultrasonic method, an electromagnetic method, a penetration method, an X-ray diffraction method, and a replica method may be used. As a destructive technique, at least one of a hardness test, a tensile test, a creep test, and a fatigue test may be used. The degree of deterioration obtained by the first measurement data obtaining unit 31 is desirably the degree of deterioration of a stress-concentrated portion or a deformed portion of the target component.

  The first measurement data acquisition unit 31 acquires the degree of deterioration of the target component for which the remaining life is to be estimated. The acquired degree of deterioration is output to the second measurement data acquisition unit 32.

(Step S04: second measurement data acquisition procedure: acquisition of the deformation amount of the target part)
Next, the worker acquires the deformation amount of the target component by using the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 of the component measurement data acquisition unit 3 of the life prediction device 1. The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 receives the deformation amount of the target component measured by the worker.

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 receives the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 and the deformation amount of the target component measured by the operator. The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31. The operator calculates the macro strain in the tensile direction of the stress concentration portion of the implanted portion to be evaluated by elasto-plastic analysis using the finite element method.

  The amount of deformation of the target component is output by a telegram from the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 via a communication line. The deformation amount of the target component may be temporarily stored in an external storage device, and may be input to the damage estimation unit 4 by connecting the external storage device.

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires a deformation amount of a stress concentration portion or a deformation portion of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31. The amount of deformation is measured by a worker at a stress concentrated portion or a deformed portion of the target component. This is because the stress concentrated portion or the deformed portion often becomes a portion that causes fatal damage to the component. The stress concentration portion is, for example, a rotor center hole, a curvature portion of a wheel, a casing, a valve, piping, or the like in a turbine, a rotor, an implanted portion of a moving and stationary blade, a screw bottom of a bolt, and the like.

  The amount of deformation is the amount of strain in the material caused by the applied stress, and varies depending on the type of the applied stress. The deformation amount includes a compression strain, a tensile strain, a shear strain, and the like. In the case of measurement using a test piece, the amount of deformation includes elongation and drawing in addition to the above. The amount of deformation is measured by a non-destructive actual machine. Alternatively, the deformation amount may be calculated by analytically estimating using a model imitating an actual machine. As a non-destructive measurement method, a strain gauge attachment method, a grid method, an image correlation method, or the like may be used. Elasto-plastic analysis using the finite element method or the like may be used as a method of analytically estimating.

  The second measurement data acquisition unit 32 acquires a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit 31. The acquired deformation amount of the target component is output to the damage amount estimation unit 4.

(Step S05: Damage Estimation Procedure: Estimate Damage)
Next, the worker estimates the amount of damage using the damage amount estimating unit 4 of the life prediction device 1.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 estimates the damage amount based on the stress deterioration parameter acquired by the material deterioration data acquiring unit 2 and the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquiring unit 3.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 calculates the master curve of the stress-time degradation parameter of the target component output in step S02 based on the macro distortion obtained by the finite element method, which is the deformation amount of the target component output in step S04. Make corrections. Further, the hardness acquired in step S03 is applied to the corrected master curve, and a time-temperature parameter in consideration of macro distortion, that is, a damage amount is estimated.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 corrects the stress degradation parameter acquired by the material degradation data acquiring unit 2 based on the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquiring unit 3 as shown in FIG. Estimate the amount of damage at the evaluation point.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 grasps the relationship between the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained by the first deterioration data obtaining unit 21 and the stress deterioration parameter obtained by the second deterioration data obtaining unit 22. It is desirable that the relationship between the non-stress deterioration parameter and the stress deterioration parameter can be described by a simple mathematical expression using the deterioration parameter, the temperature-time parameter, and the deformation amount.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 calculates a damage amount which is a parameter of temperature versus time derived from the degree of deterioration of the target component acquired by the first measurement data acquiring unit 31. Further, the damage amount estimating unit 4 uses the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the second measurement data acquiring unit 32 to calculate a damage amount to be corrected based on the deformation amount.

  The damage amount estimating unit 4 estimates the damage amount based on the stress deterioration parameter acquired by the material deterioration data acquiring unit 2 and the deformation amount of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquiring unit 3. The estimated damage amount is output to the remaining life estimation unit 5.

  The estimated damage amount is output as a message from the damage amount estimation unit 4 via a communication line. The estimated damage amount may be temporarily stored in an external storage device, and may be input to the remaining life estimation unit 5 by connecting the external storage device.

(Step S06: remaining life estimation procedure: prediction of remaining life is performed)
Next, the worker uses the remaining life estimation unit 5 of the life prediction device 1 to predict the remaining life.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates the difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a preset damage amount, and predicts the remaining life. As shown in FIG. 6, an operator has previously prepared an estimated breaking curve created by a creep rupture test performed under a plurality of conditions with respect to a target Ni-based alloy. The remaining life estimating unit 5 obtains the difference between the amount of fatal damage estimated according to the operating conditions of the actual machine in the future and the amount of damage to the implanted part output in step S05, and estimates the remaining life.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a predetermined fatal damage amount of the target component. The fatal damage amount is a parameter such as a time until a fatal damage that requires repair or replacement of the target component, for example, plastic deformation, crack initiation, breakage, and the like. For example, the amount of fatal damage is a time to reach 1% creep strain or a rupture time in the case of creep damage.

  The amount of fatal damage is determined based on data obtained by an experiment performed in advance or estimation based on experimental data. The calculated remaining life of the target component is the difference between the fatal damage amount and the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimation unit 4.

  The remaining life estimating unit 5 calculates a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit 4 and a preset fatal damage amount, and predicts a remaining life. The predicted remaining life is output from the life prediction device 1.

  The predicted remaining life is output by a message from the remaining life estimation unit 5 of the life prediction device 1 via a communication line. The predicted remaining life may be stored in an external storage device and output.

  The worker performs repair or replacement of the target component based on the remaining life of the target component whose deterioration is to be predicted output from the life prediction device 1. The above is the procedure of the life estimation method. The above is the operation of the life estimation device 1 and the operation of the life estimation device program.

[1-3. effect]
(1) According to the present embodiment, the life prediction method includes a material deterioration data obtaining procedure for obtaining a stress deterioration parameter of a target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load, and component measurement data for obtaining a deformation amount of the target component. An acquisition procedure, a damage estimation procedure for estimating a damage quantity based on a stress degradation parameter acquired by the material degradation data acquisition procedure and a deformation quantity of the target component acquired by the component measurement data acquisition procedure, and a damage estimation procedure. And a remaining life estimation procedure for calculating the difference between the estimated damage amount and the preset damage amount and predicting the remaining life, it is possible to more accurately predict the remaining life of the target component. A life prediction method can be provided.

  Further, since the life prediction device and the program for the life prediction device have the respective parts and steps corresponding to the above, a life prediction device and a program for the life prediction device capable of more accurately predicting the remaining life of the target component are provided. can do.

  According to the life prediction method of the present embodiment, the remaining life of the evaluation target portion to which a stress is applied can be more accurately estimated than when the simple aging deterioration material alone is used. Further, according to the life expectancy prediction method of the present embodiment, the life can be more accurately estimated even when the deterioration parameter of the evaluation target portion cannot be directly obtained due to the restriction on the design or operation of the actual device. it can.

(2) According to the present embodiment, the material deterioration data obtaining procedure includes a first deterioration data obtaining procedure for obtaining a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a non-stress load; And a second deterioration data acquisition procedure for acquiring a stress degradation parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load based on the non-stress degradation parameter acquired in the first degradation data acquisition procedure. The remaining life can be predicted by using the stress deterioration parameter when a stress is applied. Therefore, it is possible to provide a life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a program for a life prediction device, which can predict the remaining life of the target component with higher accuracy.

(3) According to the present embodiment, since the first deterioration data obtaining procedure obtains the non-stress deterioration parameter based on the hardness of the material sample of the target part, the remaining life of the target part against creep damage can be more accurately determined. Can be predicted well.

(4) According to the present embodiment, the second deterioration data obtaining procedure is based on the macro strain of the material sample of the target part and the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained by the first deterioration data obtaining procedure. Since the deterioration parameter at the time of stress indicating the correlation between the macro strain and the hardness is obtained, the remaining life of the target component to which the stress is applied can be more accurately predicted.

(5) According to the present embodiment, the part measurement data acquisition procedure is based on the first measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring the degree of deterioration of the target part and the degree of deterioration based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition procedure. Since the method includes the second measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring the deformation amount of the component, the remaining life of the target component can be more accurately predicted based on the degree of deterioration and the deformation amount of the target component of the actual machine.

(6) According to the present embodiment, the second measurement data obtaining procedure obtains the deformation amount of the stress-concentrated portion or the deformed portion of the target component. Therefore, the deformation amount of the portion of the target component that is more likely to deteriorate is improved. , The remaining life can be predicted. As a result, the remaining life of the target component can be more accurately predicted.

(7) According to this embodiment, the remaining life predicted by the remaining life estimation procedure is at least one of creep damage, low cycle fatigue damage, high cycle fatigue damage, relaxation, and damage due to oxidative corrosion. Based on a wide variety of damages, the remaining life can be predicted. As a result, the remaining life of the target component can be more accurately predicted.

(8) According to the present embodiment, the stress deterioration parameter acquired by the material deterioration data acquisition procedure is at least one of the metal structure information, the mechanical property, or the physical property of the target component. Life expectancy can be predicted. As a result, the remaining life of the target component can be more accurately predicted.

(9) According to the present embodiment, the material of the target component is one of a low-alloy ferritic heat-resistant steel, a high-Cr ferritic heat-resistant steel, an austenitic heat-resistant steel, a Ni heat-resistant alloy, and a Co-based heat-resistant alloy. The remaining life of the target component of the power plant equipment used at a high temperature can be more accurately predicted.

(10) According to the present embodiment, since the target component is any one of a turbine and a boiler for a high-temperature power plant, the remaining life of the target component of the power plant device used at a high temperature can be determined more accurately. Can be predicted well.

(11) According to the present embodiment, since the target component is any one of the turbine rotor, the moving and stationary blades, the casing, the bolt, the valve, and the pipe, the remaining life of the target component of the power plant equipment used at a high temperature is reduced. , Can be more accurately predicted.

[Other embodiments]
Although the embodiments including the modifications have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in other various forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and their equivalents. The following is an example.

(1) In the above embodiment, after executing step S01 as a procedure for acquiring a non-stress degradation parameter and step S02 as a procedure for acquiring a stress degradation parameter, a procedure for acquiring the degree of degradation of a target component. Step S03 and step S04, which is a procedure for acquiring the deformation amount of the target component, are executed. However, the order of execution of steps S01 to S04 is not limited to this. For example, step S03 and step S04 may be executed first, and then step S01 and step S02 may be executed.

(2) In the above embodiment, the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 receives the non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component. However, the first deterioration data acquisition unit 21 may have a communication unit and acquire the non-stress deterioration parameter stored in a database or the like by communication via a communication line such as the Internet.

(3) In the above embodiment, the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 receives the stress deterioration parameter of the target component. However, the second deterioration data acquisition unit 22 may include a communication unit and acquire the stress-time deterioration parameter stored in the database or the like by communication via a communication line such as the Internet.

(4) In the above embodiment, the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 receives the degree of deterioration of the target component. However, the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 may include a communication unit and acquire the degree of deterioration of the target component stored in a database or the like by communication via a communication line such as the Internet. Further, the first measurement data acquisition unit 31 may have a measurement unit and measure the degree of deterioration of the target component.

(5) In the above embodiment, the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 receives the deformation amount of the target component. However, the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 may include a communication unit, and acquire the deformation amount of the target component stored in a database or the like by communication via a communication line such as the Internet. Further, the second measurement data acquisition unit 32 may include a measurement unit and measure the amount of deformation of the target component.

(6) The materials of the target parts are low-alloy ferritic heat-resistant steel, high-Cr ferritic heat-resistant steel, austenitic heat-resistant steel, Ni heat-resistant alloy (Ni-base superalloy), and Co-base, which are used as structural parts for high-temperature power generation equipment. A heat-resistant alloy (Co-based superalloy) may be used. The material suitable for the life prediction method according to the above-described embodiment is a material in which the influence of the deformation amount on the deterioration parameter is remarkable. For example, a Ni heat-resistant alloy is work-hardened in accordance with deformation, and a deterioration parameter such as hardness increases linearly in proportion to the deformation amount, and thus is suitable for the life prediction method according to the above embodiment.

(7) The remaining life predicted by the remaining life estimation procedure may be creep damage, low cycle fatigue damage, high cycle fatigue damage, relaxation, damage due to oxidative corrosion, or a superposition of these damages. The damage mode suitable for the life prediction method according to the above embodiment is a damage mode in which the amount of deformation is easily quantified. For example, the creep damage shown in the examples is uniaxial deformation under constant tensile stress, and an evaluation method such as a fracture test has been established, and is suitable for the life prediction method according to the above embodiment.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Life prediction apparatus 2 ... Material deterioration data acquisition part 3 ... Parts measurement data acquisition part 4 ... Damage amount estimation part 5 ... Remaining life estimation part 21 ... First deterioration data Acquisition unit 22 Second deterioration data acquisition unit 31 First measurement data acquisition unit 32 Second measurement data acquisition unit

Claims (13)

A method for predicting the remaining life of a target component for which deterioration is to be predicted,
Material degradation data acquisition procedure for acquiring the stress degradation parameter of the target component with respect to the elapsed time at the time of stress loading,
Component measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring the deformation amount of the target component,
A damage amount estimation step of estimating a damage amount based on the stress deterioration parameter acquired by the material deterioration data acquisition step and the deformation amount of the target part acquired by the part measurement data acquisition step,
A remaining life estimation procedure for calculating a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimation procedure and a preset damage amount and predicting a remaining life,
Life prediction method having The material deterioration data acquisition procedure includes:
A first deterioration data obtaining procedure for obtaining a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a non-stress load;
Based on the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained by the first deterioration data obtaining procedure, a second deterioration data obtaining procedure of obtaining a stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load;
The life prediction method according to claim 1, comprising: The first deterioration data obtaining procedure obtains a non-stress deterioration parameter based on the hardness of a material sample of a target part.
The life prediction method according to claim 2. The second deterioration data obtaining procedure is based on the macro strain of the material sample of the target part and the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained by the first deterioration data obtaining procedure. Acquire a stress degradation parameter indicating a correlation,
The life prediction method according to claim 3. The part measurement data acquisition procedure includes:
A first measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring the degree of deterioration of the target component;
A second measurement data acquisition procedure for acquiring a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired in the first measurement data acquisition procedure;
The life prediction method according to claim 1, comprising: The second measurement data acquisition procedure acquires a deformation amount of a stress concentration location or a deformation location of the target component,
A life prediction method according to claim 5. The remaining life predicted by the remaining life estimation procedure is at least one of creep damage, low cycle fatigue damage, high cycle fatigue damage, relaxation, and damage due to oxidative corrosion. Life expectancy method described. The stress deterioration parameter obtained by the material deterioration data obtaining step is at least one of metallographic information, mechanical property, or physical property of the target part,
The life prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 7. The material of the target part is a low-alloy ferritic heat-resistant steel, a high Cr ferritic heat-resistant steel, an austenitic heat-resistant steel, a Ni heat-resistant alloy or a Co-based heat-resistant alloy.
The life prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 8. The target component is a component of a turbine for a high-temperature power plant or a boiler,
The life prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 9. The target component is any of a turbine rotor, a moving vane, a casing, a bolt, a valve, and piping.
The life prediction method according to claim 10. An apparatus for estimating the remaining life of a target component to be subject to deterioration prediction,
A first deterioration data obtaining unit for obtaining a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time at a predetermined temperature during non-stress load;
A second degradation data acquisition unit that acquires a stress degradation parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load, based on the non-stress degradation parameter acquired by the first degradation data acquisition unit;
A first measurement data acquisition unit for acquiring a degree of deterioration of the target component;
A second measurement data acquisition unit that acquires a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired by the first measurement data acquisition unit;
A damage amount estimating unit that estimates a damage amount based on the stress-time deterioration parameter obtained by the second deterioration data obtaining unit and the deformation amount of the target component obtained by the second measurement data obtaining unit;
A remaining life estimating unit that calculates a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimating unit and a preset damage amount and predicts a remaining life,
Life prediction device having An apparatus program for estimating a remaining life of a target component to be subjected to deterioration prediction,
A first deterioration data obtaining step of obtaining a non-stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time at a predetermined temperature under a non-stress load;
Based on the non-stress deterioration parameter obtained in the first deterioration data obtaining step, a second deterioration data obtaining step of obtaining a stress deterioration parameter of the target component with respect to an elapsed time under a stress load;
A first measurement data acquisition step of acquiring the degree of deterioration of the target component;
A second measurement data acquisition step of acquiring a deformation amount of the target component based on the degree of deterioration acquired in the first measurement data acquisition step;
A damage amount estimating step of estimating a damage amount based on the stress-time deterioration parameter obtained in the second deterioration data obtaining step and the deformation amount of the target component obtained in the second measurement data obtaining step;
A remaining life estimation step of calculating a difference between the damage amount estimated by the damage amount estimation step and a preset damage amount and predicting a remaining life,
Program for a life prediction device having

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