JP2017103862A - Power estimating apparatus, power estimating method, and power estimating program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power estimating device, a power estimating method, and a power estimating program capable of estimating the margin power which is a power that can be reduced out of an electric power demand of a customer.SOLUTION: A power estimating device has a harmonic component determining unit, an active power estimating unit, and a margin power estimating unit 24. The harmonic component determination unit determines the harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system that supplies power to the device. The active power estimating unit estimates the active power for each type of the device based on the harmonic component value of the active power. The margin power estimating unit estimates the value of margin power which is electric power that can be reduced from the electric power demand of the device on the basis of the predetermined rank and the estimated value of the active power for each type of equipment according to ease of reduction.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to a power estimation apparatus, a power estimation method, and a power estimation program.

  An energy management system may request a customer to implement a demand response (DR implementation). When the energy management system promptly requests a demand response, it is necessary to estimate the surplus power that is the power that can be reduced out of the power demand of the consumer. However, the conventional apparatus may not be able to estimate the surplus power that is the power that can be reduced out of the power demand of the consumer.

Japanese Patent No. 4802129 Japanese Patent No. 3877269 JP 2006-17456 A

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a power estimation device, a power estimation method, and a power estimation program capable of estimating a marginal power that is a power that can be reduced out of a customer's power demand. is there.

  The power estimation apparatus of the embodiment includes a harmonic component determination unit, an active power estimation unit, and a margin power estimation unit. The harmonic component determination unit determines the harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system that supplies power to the device. The active power estimation unit estimates the active power for each type of device based on the harmonic component value of the active power. The surplus power estimation unit calculates a surplus power value that is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device, a rank determined in advance according to ease of reduction, and an estimated value of active power for each device type. Estimate based on

The figure which shows the example of a structure of the electric power system in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the connection of the electrical system and apparatus of a consumer in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of the local energy management system in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of DR management part in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of the electric power load estimation part in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of the harmonic component calculation part in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the waveform of the electrical physical quantity in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the measurement harmonic component in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the 1st example of the relationship between the order of a harmonic component in 1st Embodiment, and a harmonic content rate. The figure which shows the 2nd example of the relationship between the order of a harmonic component in 1st Embodiment, and a harmonic content rate. The figure which shows the 3rd example of the relationship between the order of a harmonic component in 1st Embodiment, and a harmonic content rate. The figure which shows the 4th example of the relationship between the order of a harmonic component in 1st Embodiment, and a harmonic content rate. The figure which shows operation | movement of the electric power load estimation system in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power for every classification of apparatus in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the relationship between the ease of implementation of a demand response, and a rank in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power and rank for every classification of apparatus in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power for every rank in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power of the rank A in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power of the rank A and the rank B in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the electric power of the rank A, the rank B, and the rank C in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the sum total of the electric power of rank A in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the sum total of the electric power of the rank A and the rank B in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the sum total of the electric power of rank B in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the sum total of the electric power of rank A, rank B, and rank C in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the sum total of the electric power of rank C in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of the local energy management system in 2nd Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a structure of the local energy management system in 3rd Embodiment. The flowchart which shows the operation | movement which determines the value of the margin electric power in the discharge electric power of a storage battery in 3rd Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the relationship between DR implementation electric power and customer incentive in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the relationship between DR implementation electric power, a customer incentive, and a high-order system incentive in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the relationship between DR implementation electric power, a consumer incentive, a high-order system incentive, and a generator operating cost in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of DR execution request | requirement electric power at the time of electric power generation in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of DR execution request | requirement electric power at the time of discharge / discharge in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the 1st example of DR implementation plan electric power of rank A in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the 2nd example of DR implementation plan electric power of rank A in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the 3rd example of DR implementation plan electric power of rank A in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the 4th example of DR implementation plan electric power of rank A in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows DR implementation electric power of rank B in 4th Embodiment. The flowchart which shows the operation | movement which determines a consumer incentive in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of surplus electric power in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of a high-order system | strain incentive in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of DR implementation determination result in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of DR implementation plan electric power in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of a customer incentive in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows the example of a display of the DR implementation frequency in 4th Embodiment. The figure which shows DR implementation margin electric power and DR implementation rate in 4th Embodiment.

Hereinafter, a power estimation device, a power estimation method, and a power estimation program according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.
(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the power system 1. The power system 1 is a system that supplies power to consumer equipment connected to a power system. The power system 1 includes a host system 2, a connection line 3, a power system 4, a generator 5, a storage battery 6, a customer end connection line 7, a measuring device 8, a customer 9, a region An energy management system 10, a transmission system 11, and a communication line 112 are provided. The power system 1 may include a plurality of consumers 9. In FIG. 1, the power system 1 includes customers 9-1 to 9-3 as an example. As an example, the consumer 9-1 is a factory building. As an example, the customer 9-2 is an office building. As an example, the customer 9-3 is a school building. Hereinafter, about the matter common to the consumers 9-1 to 9-3, a part of a code | symbol is abbreviate | omitted and it describes with "the consumer 9".

  The host system 2 is a commercial system including a power generator and the like. The host system 2 supplies power to the equipment of the customer 9 via the interconnection line 3, the power system 4, and the customer end interconnection line 7.

The interconnection line 3 is a power transmission facility that connects the upper system 2 and the power system 4. The interconnecting line 3 supplies power to the equipment of the customer 9 by connecting to the upper system 2.
The power system 4 is a system for transmitting and distributing power. The power system 4 includes power transmission equipment such as power cables and power distribution equipment. The power system 4 is managed by the local energy management system 10. The power system 4 supplies power to the equipment of the customer 9 by connecting to the host system 2 and the connection line 3.

  The generator 5 is a power generator such as a wind power generator, a solar power generator, a cogeneration system, or a fuel cell. The generator 5 acquires control signals indicating start, stop, power generation output change, and the like from the regional energy management system 10. The generator 5 generates power according to the control signal. The generator 5 supplies the generated power to the equipment of the consumer 9 via the power system 4.

  The storage battery 6 is a power storage device including a lithium ion battery. The storage battery 6 acquires control signals indicating operation, stop, charge, discharge, and the like from the regional energy management system 10. The storage battery 6 is discharged according to the control signal. The storage battery 6 supplies the discharged power to the equipment of the consumer 9 via the power system 4.

  The customer end interconnection line 7 is a power transmission facility and a power distribution facility that connect the power system 4 and the customer 9. The customer end interconnection 7 supplies the power received from the power system 4 to the equipment of the customer 9.

  The measuring device 8 (measurement point) measures the electrophysical quantity of the electric power supplied to the equipment of the consumer 9. The electrophysical quantity is, for example, a voltage value, a current value, a voltage and a current phase. The measuring device 8 (measurement point) transmits information indicating the electrical physical quantity to the regional energy management system 10 via the transmission system 11. The measuring device 8 may relay communication between the equipment of the customer 9 and the local energy management system 10.

  The consumer 9 is a building such as a condominium, a house, a factory, a school, a hospital, or a community common facility. The consumer 9 may be a building (commercial building) having a commercial facility or a building (office building) having an office. The consumer 9 includes a device (power load) that consumes the power received via the consumer end interconnection 7.

  The regional energy management system 10 is realized, for example, by cooperation of a computer as hardware and a program as software. The regional energy management system 10 is an information processing device such as a server device, for example. The regional energy management system 10 is managed by an electric power company, for example. The regional energy management system 10 transmits a control signal to the generator 5. The regional energy management system 10 transmits a control signal to the storage battery 6.

The transmission system 11 is a communication device. The transmission system 11 relays communication between the measuring device 8 and the regional energy management system 10.
The communication line 12 is a wired or wireless communication line. The communication line 12 is, for example, an optical fiber. The communication line 12 relays communication between the measuring device 8 and the transmission system 11.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of connection between the electrical system 21 and the device 22 of the customer 9. The consumer 9 includes an electrical system 21 and a device 22. The electric system 21 is a system for distributing power to the devices 22. The electric system 21 includes power distribution equipment such as a power cable. The electric system 21 supplies power received through the customer end interconnection 7 to the device 22.

  The device 22 is a device that consumes the received power. The device 22-1 is an air conditioning device as an example. The device 22-2 is a power load as an example. The power load is, for example, an elevator. The device 22-3 is an OA (Office Automation) device as an example. The OA device is, for example, a multifunction device including a copy device and a printer device. The device 22-4 is an information processing apparatus such as a computer as an example. The information processing apparatus is, for example, a notebook or desktop personal computer. For example, the device 22-5 is a lighting device such as a fluorescent lamp. Hereinafter, with respect to matters common to the devices 22-1 to 22-5, a part of the reference numerals are omitted and described as “device 22”.

  The local energy management system 10 acquires information indicating the electrical physical quantity from the measurement device 8 via the communication line 12 and the transmission system 11. The local energy management system 10 estimates the active power (electric power load) for each type of the device 22 of the consumer 9 based on the information indicating the electrical physical quantity.

  The local energy management system 10 estimates margin power, which is power that can be reduced, out of the power demand of the customer 9 based on information indicating the electrical physical quantity. The regional energy management system 10 requests the manager of the consumer 9 to execute demand response (DR implementation) based on the active power for each type of the device 22 of the consumer 9 and the surplus power. The regional energy management system 10 transmits a request signal for requesting execution of a demand response to the manager of the consumer 9 or the device 22.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the regional energy management system 10. The regional energy management system 10 includes an integrated control unit 13, a demand prediction unit 14, an economical operation unit 15, a received power control unit 16, a DR management unit 17, a generator control unit 18, and a storage battery control unit 19. And a DR request unit 20.

The integrated control unit 13 controls each unit of the regional energy management system 10.
The demand prediction unit 14 predicts power demand at the customer 9. The demand prediction unit 14 transmits the prediction result of the power demand in the customer 9 to the economical operation unit 15, the received power control unit 16, and the DR management unit 17.

  The economical operation unit 15 determines an economical operation method of the generator 5 and the storage battery 6. For example, the economical operation unit 15 determines the operation or stop timing of the generator 5. For example, the economical operation unit 15 determines the operation or stop timing of the storage battery 6. An economical operation method is an operation method which reduces the cost of the electric power supplied to the consumer 9. The economical operation method may be an operation method in which an administrator of the customer 9 who has performed demand response can obtain an incentive (consideration).

  The received power control unit 16 controls the received power passing through the interconnection line 3. For example, the received power control unit 16 controls the received power passing through the interconnection line 3 by controlling the generated power of the generator 5. For example, the received power control unit 16 controls the received power passing through the interconnection 3 by controlling the charging power and discharging power of the storage battery 6.

  The DR management unit 17 executes management related to demand response. For example, the DR management unit 17 estimates the power load of the device 22 of the consumer 9. For example, the DR management unit 17 estimates the surplus power in the power demand of the consumer 9. For example, the DR management unit 17 determines a demand response plan. The demand response plan is, for example, information indicating the power reduction requested to the manager of the consumer 9 or a time zone for executing the demand response.

  The generator control unit 18 controls the operation of the generator 5 based on the operation method determined by the economical operation unit 15, the demand response plan determined by the DR management unit 17, and the control by the received power control unit 16. Control.

  The storage battery control unit 19 controls the operation of the storage battery 6 based on the operation method determined by the economical operation unit 15, the demand response plan determined by the DR management unit 17, and the control by the received power control unit 16. .

  Based on the demand response plan determined by the DR management unit 17, the DR request unit 20 transmits a request signal for requesting execution of the demand response to the manager of the customer 9 or the device 22.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the DR management unit 17. The DR management unit 17 (power estimation device) includes a power load estimation unit 23, a margin power estimation unit 24, and a planning unit 25. The DR management unit 17 is realized, for example, by cooperation of a computer as hardware and a program as software. That is, some or all of the power load estimation unit 23, the marginal power estimation unit 24, and the planning unit 25 are programs stored in the storage unit 231 by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), for example. It is a software function unit that functions when executed. Some or all of these functional units may be hardware functional units such as LSI (Large Scale Integration) and ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit).

The power load estimator 23 acquires the electrical physical quantity information from the measurement device 8 via the communication line 12. The power load estimation unit 23 obtains an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 based on the electrical physical quantity information.
The surplus power estimation unit 24 sets the surplus power (kW), which is power that can be reduced, out of the power demand of the customer 9 for each rank of the device 22 and the rank determined in advance according to the ease of reduction. It estimates based on the estimated value of active power (kW).

  The planning unit 25 determines a demand response plan based on the current estimated value of active power and the value of surplus power. That is, the planning unit 25 determines the value of power to be reduced from the power demand of the device 22 based on the estimated value of active power and the value of surplus power for each type of device 22. The planning unit 25 transmits information indicating a demand response plan to the DR request unit 20. The planning unit 25 includes a display unit 250. The display unit 250 is a liquid crystal display or the like.

Details of the power load estimation unit 23 will be described.
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the power load estimation unit 23. The power load estimation unit 23 includes a harmonic component determination unit 230, a storage unit 231, a database 232, and an active power estimation unit 233. The harmonic component determination unit 230 acquires electrophysical quantity information from the measurement device 8 via the communication line 12. The harmonic component determination unit 230 determines the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 22 based on the electrical physical quantity information.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the harmonic component determination unit 230. The harmonic component determination unit 230 includes an FFT processing unit 234. The harmonics are represented as a collection of sine waves with different periods. When the order of the fundamental wave is the first order, the order of the sine wave whose period is 1 / n of the fundamental wave (frequency is n times) is the nth order. Note that n may not be an integer.

  Fast Fourier transform (FFT) is known as a waveform analysis method for calculating harmonic component values for each order. When the harmonic component value is calculated from the measured value that is the sampling value, the harmonic component value can be calculated for each order by, for example, discrete Fourier transform. A fast Fourier transform is a method improved so as to solve the discrete Fourier transform at high speed. Hereinafter, as an example, the FFT processing unit 234 will be described assuming that the harmonic component value is calculated for each order by fast Fourier transform.

  The FFT processing unit 234 calculates a harmonic component value included in the instantaneous voltage value v and the instantaneous current value i as the electrical physical quantity for each order of the harmonic component based on the electrical physical quantity information. The FFT processing unit 234 can calculate any harmonic component value among the instantaneous value p of electric power, the instantaneous value v of voltage, and the instantaneous value i of current for each order of the harmonic component. is there. The FFT processing unit 234 causes the storage unit 231 to store information indicating the harmonic component value actually measured by the measuring device 8 (hereinafter referred to as “measured harmonic component value information”).

  The storage unit 231 is configured using a storage device having a nonvolatile storage medium (non-temporary recording medium) such as a magnetic hard disk device or a semiconductor storage device. The storage unit 231 may include, for example, a volatile storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a register.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a waveform of an electrical physical quantity. FIG. 7 shows a voltage waveform V, a current waveform I, and a power waveform P as examples of electrophysical quantities. The horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis represents the electrophysical quantity. The instantaneous value p of electric power, the instantaneous value v of voltage, and the instantaneous value i of electric current have the relationship shown in Formula (1).

  As shown in Expression (1), the instantaneous value p of power can be calculated based on the instantaneous value v of voltage and the instantaneous value i of current as electrical physical quantities.

  In electric power equipment, in many cases, it can be considered that the phase of voltage and current during operation is substantially equal. Therefore, the power factor of each harmonic component can be approximated as “power factor = 1”. On the other hand, in an electrical device having a large phase difference between the voltage and current during operation, the harmonic component can be corrected as shown in Expression (1a). Hereinafter, for the power passing through the measuring device 8 (measurement point), the effective power measured by the measuring device 8 is denoted as “P”.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of the actually measured harmonic component. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content [%]. FIG. 8 shows the harmonic content for each of the active power P and the voltage V. The harmonic content rate can be calculated for each order of the harmonic component as shown in Equation (2).

  The database 232 is configured using a storage device having a nonvolatile storage medium (non-temporary recording medium) such as a magnetic hard disk device or a semiconductor storage device. The database 232 may include, for example, a volatile storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a register. The database 232 stores in advance information representing the relationship between the harmonic component order of the active power of the device 22 in the past period and the harmonic content rate in the same period. Hereinafter, information representing the relationship between the order of the harmonic component of the active power of the device 22 in the past period and the harmonic content rate in the same period is referred to as “harmonic component value database information”.

  The harmonic component value database information includes the active power pattern of the device 22 in the past period. What pattern the harmonic component value database information includes according to the order of the harmonic is determined by, for example, a result of measurement of active power in the past period by a designer or operator of the regional energy management system 10 or the like. Determined based on.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a first example of the relationship between the order of harmonic components and the harmonic content. FIG. 9 is harmonic component value database information indicating the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the air conditioning device as the device 22-1. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a second example of the relationship between the order of the harmonic component and the harmonic content. FIG. 10 is harmonic component value database information indicating the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the elevator as the device 22-2. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a third example of the relationship between the order of harmonic components and the harmonic content. Specifically, FIG. 11 is harmonic component value database information indicating the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the OA device as the device 22-3. FIG. 11 may include harmonic component value database information indicating the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the information processing apparatus as the device 22-4. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content.

  FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a fourth example of the relationship between the order of harmonic components and the harmonic content. FIG. 12 is harmonic component value database information indicating the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the lighting device (fluorescent lamp or the like) as the device 22-5. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content.

  The active power estimation unit 233 acquires the measured harmonic component value information from the storage unit 231. The active power estimation unit 233 obtains an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 based on the actually measured harmonic component value information.

  The active power estimation unit 233 may acquire the harmonic component value database information from the database 232. When the active power estimation unit 233 acquires the harmonic component value database information, the active power estimation unit 233 estimates the active power of the device 22 based on the actually measured harmonic component value information and the harmonic component value database information.

A first method for obtaining an estimated value of the active power of the device 22 will be described.
The i-th order harmonic content α _i obtained from Equation (2), the active power PL of the device 22, and the i-th order (i-order) harmonic magnitude PLi of the active power are: There is a relationship shown in Formula (3).

  If it is assumed that the active power of the device 22 has Nth-order harmonics, the relationship shown in Equation (3) is expressed by Equation (4).

The active power PL _j of the device 22 and the i-th order (i-th order) harmonic content α _ij have the relationship shown in Expression (5).

  For the power passing through the measuring device 8 (measurement point), the active power P measured by the measuring device 8, the active power PL1 of the device 22-1, the active power PL2 of the device 22-2, and the effective power of the device 22-3 The electric power PL3, the active power PL4 of the device 22-4, and the active power PL5 of the device 22-5 have the relationship shown in Expression (6). In addition, the apparatus 22 in the consumer 9 may be one.

Assuming that the active power P has an Nth-order harmonic component, the active power P and the i-th harmonic component P _i have the relationship shown in Expression (7).

  In addition, between the i-order harmonic component Pi of the active power P and the i-order harmonic component PLi of the active power, based on the equations (4), (5), and (7), There is a relationship shown in Formula (8).

  When the formula (8) is collected for each order of the harmonic component, and up to five representative orders of the harmonic component are selected, the matrix equation shown in the formula (9) is obtained.

  Here, P1 to P5 are harmonic component values of typical orders of the active power P. When the active power values PL1 to PL5 are summarized for the expression (9), the expression (10) is obtained.

Here, α _ij is known. P <b> 1 to P <b> 5 are harmonic component values selected as the characteristic harmonic components of the active power P measured by the measuring device 8. The effective powers PL1 to PL5 can be obtained from Expression (10).

  The active power estimation unit 233 calculates active power values PL1 to PL5 based on the harmonic component values P1 to P5 of the active power P. The active power estimation unit 233 outputs information representing the active power values PL <b> 1 to PL <b> 5 to the margin power estimation unit 24.

FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating the operation of the regional energy management system 10. For example, the harmonic patterns 100-1 to 100-N are shown in FIGS. The harmonic pattern is indicated by a column vector in the matrix [α _ij ] shown in Expression (9). The active power value 101-1 is the active power value (PL1) calculated based on the harmonic pattern 100-1. The active power time series data 102 is time series data of the calculated active power. The actually measured harmonic component 103 is, for example, waveform data shown in FIG.

  The harmonic component of the active power shown in FIGS. 9 to 12 has a characteristic pattern. For example, a harmonic component of active power having a relatively high harmonic content has a feature in the pattern. The harmonic components of the active power shown in FIGS. 9 to 12 are characterized by the order 5, the order 7, the order 11, the order 13, the order 17, and the order 19. For example, the harmonic components of the active power shown in FIG. 9 are characterized by orders 3, 5, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 15, 17, and 19. For example, the harmonic component of the active power shown in FIG. 12 is characterized by orders 3, 5, 5, 7, 9, and 11.

  The active power estimation unit 233 selects a characteristic harmonic component order and calculates active powers PL1 to PL5 based on the equation (10). The harmonic component of the active power shown in FIG. 9 has remarkable features in the third order and the 15th order, for example. The harmonic component of the active power shown in FIG. 11 has distinctive features, for example, in the 17th and 19th orders. The harmonic components of the active power shown in FIG. 12 have distinctive features in the third, fifth and seventh orders, for example. Accordingly, among these orders, for example, when the third order, the fifth order, the seventh order, the 15th order, and the 17th order are selected, the expression (10) is expressed by the expression (11).

  The active power estimation unit 233 acquires information representing the harmonic components P3, P5, P7, P15, and P17 of the active power at the measurement point. The active power estimation unit 233 outputs information representing the active powers PL1, PL2, PL3, PL4, and PL5 to the margin power estimation unit 24 based on the equation (11).

The active power estimation unit 233 estimates a power loss for each harmonic component, and corrects an estimation error of active power based on the estimated power loss. The i-order harmonic component Pi of the active power P and the power loss Plosi _j caused by the i-order harmonic component of the active power shown in the equation (8) are shown in the equations (12) and (13). There is a relationship.

Here, r indicates the resistance value of the device 22 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 21. QL _ij denotes the i-order harmonic component of the reactive power. V _ij represents the i-th harmonic component of the voltage. a _ij and b _ij are constants of an approximate expression for the i-order harmonic component of the active power. Therefore, when Expression (12) and Expression (13) considering the power loss of the harmonic component are substituted into Expression (9), Expression (14) is obtained.

  Summarizing the effective powers PL1 to PL5 shown in Expression (14), Expression (15) is obtained.

Here, γ _ij is known. P1 to P5 indicate harmonic components of the active power P measured by the measuring device 8 at the measurement points. Active powers PL1 to PL5 are obtained from Expression (15).

The active power estimation unit 233 acquires information representing the harmonic components P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5 of the active power at the measurement point from the storage unit 231. The active power estimation unit 233 outputs information representing the active powers PL1, PL2, PL3, PL4, and PL5 to the margin power estimation unit 24 based on the equation (15).
This is the description of the first method for obtaining the estimated value of the active power of the device 22.

A second method for obtaining an estimated value of the active power of the device 22 will be described.
The harmonic component of the active power P at the measurement point and the harmonic component of the active power have a relationship shown in Expression (8) and Expression (9). The matrix shown in Equation (9) is a square matrix, but in reality, the number of rows and the number of columns are often different. The measured harmonic vector shown on the left side of Equation (9), the harmonic vector that is a column vector in the matrix shown on the right side of Equation (9), the number m of harmonic components, and the number n of devices 22 Is represented by the approximate expression shown in Expression (16).

  This relationship can be expressed by Expression (17) using an actually measured harmonic approximate value vector that is a vector obtained from the right side of Expression (16).

  The active power estimation unit 233 determines the value of the active power of the device 22 so that the error between the actual measurement value represented by the actual harmonic vector and the actual harmonic approximation vector represented by the equation (17) is minimized. Is estimated. The active power estimation unit 233 calculates the value of the active power based on the least square method that minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences between the elements of the actually measured harmonic vector and the elements of the actually measured harmonic approximate value vector. To do.

  The total sum S of the squares of the difference between the measured harmonic vector element and the measured harmonic approximate value vector element is expressed by Expression (18).

Hereinafter, in the equations, the summation symbol is simplified and expressed as “Σ”.
In order to minimize the estimation error by the least square method, the active power estimation unit 233 partially differentiates the equation (18) with each active power value, and the active power is such that the result of partial differentiation becomes a value of 0. Is calculated. When the equation (18) is partially differentiated by the value of the active power, the equation (19) is obtained.

  When equation (19) is expanded, equation (20) is obtained.

  When the value of Expression (20) is set to 0 and Expression (19) based on the value of each active power is expressed in a matrix format, Expression (21) is obtained.

The matrix on the right side of Expression (21) is a symmetric matrix having Σα _ik × α _ij (k columns j rows or j columns k rows) and Σα _ij × α _ij (diagonal components of j columns j rows). It is. The matrix on the right side of Expression (21) is a regular matrix (Non-Singular Matrix) when “the number of harmonic component orders ≧ the number of devices 22 that generate harmonics” holds, and the inverse matrix can be calculated. . In this case, the value of each active power can be calculated by the equation (21a).

  The active power estimation unit 233 outputs the active powers PL1, PL2, PL3,..., PLn to the margin power estimation unit 24 based on the equation (21a).

Note that the active power estimation unit 233 uses the equation (16) to the equation (20) to calculate the value of the active power by using the γ _ij shown in the equation (14) instead of the α _ij shown in the equation (16). It can be calculated.
This is the description of the second method for obtaining the estimated value of the active power of the device 22.

Details of the margin power estimation unit 24 will be described.
The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 from the power load estimation unit 23. The surplus power estimation unit 24 estimates surplus power based on the estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 and a predetermined power demand assumption. The assumption of the predetermined power demand is determined by, for example, an administrator of the DR management unit 17 based on experience. The assumption of the power demand determined in advance may be determined by the demand prediction unit 14 based on the history of power demand, for example. The assumption of power demand may be expressed by a predetermined rank according to the ease of reduction. The rank determined in advance according to the ease of reduction may be expressed as a percentage of active power. For example, ranks may be expressed such that rank A is 40% of active power, rank B is 30% of active power, rank C is 20% of active power, and rank D is 10% of active power. The surplus power estimation unit 24 may estimate the surplus power based on the estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 and the result of the previous interview survey with respect to the manager of the consumer 9.

  FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating the power for each type of the device 22. The power for each type of device 22 includes air conditioning power 26, power load 27 (power corresponding to the power load), PC / OA power 28 (power of personal computer and OA device), and illumination power 29. . In the customer 9-1 (factory building), the power load 27 is relatively large. In the customer 9-2 (office building), the air conditioning power 26 and the lighting power 29 are relatively large. In the customer 9-3 (school building), the power load 27 is relatively small.

  FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the ease of demand response implementation and the rank. The rank indicates the degree that it is possible to reduce the power demand of the customer 9. That is, the rank is determined in advance according to the ease of reduction. Among the ranks A to D, rank A is assigned to the power (room power) of the device 22 for which it is easiest to reduce the power demand of the consumer 9. That is, it is easy to reduce the power load to which the rank A is assigned for the device 22. Rank B is assigned to the power (margin power) of the equipment 22 that is the next easiest to rank A to reduce the power demand of the consumer 9. That is, it is normal that the power load assigned rank B for the device 22 is difficult to reduce. Rank C is assigned to the power (margin power) of the equipment 22 that is the next easiest to rank B to reduce the power demand of the consumer 9. That is, it is difficult to reduce the power load to which the rank C is assigned for the device 22. Rank D is assigned to the power of the device 22 that cannot reduce the power demand of the consumer 9. That is, it is impossible to reduce the power load to which rank C is assigned for the device 22. Note that the rank may be associated with a surplus power amount that is a surplus power per hour or 30 minutes.

  FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating the power and rank for each type of the device 22. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The manager or the like of the DR management unit 17 assigns ranks A to D to the air-conditioning power 26 based on experience related to power demand. The manager or the like of the DR management unit 17 may assign ranks A to D to the air-conditioning power 26 based on the result of a prior interview with the manager of the customer 9. In FIG. 16, the administrator of the DR management unit 17 assigns ranks B and D to the air conditioning power 26-1 of the customer 9-1. The administrator or the like of the DR management unit 17 may assign a rank to the air conditioning power 26-1 according to the power consumption reduced according to the set temperature. An administrator of the DR management unit 17 assigns ranks A to D to the power load 27, the PC / OA power 28, and the illumination power 29.

  FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating power for each rank. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The surplus power estimation unit 24 may create a graph that summarizes the surplus power in the power demand of the consumer 9 for each rank. The surplus power estimation unit 24 may display a graph that summarizes the surplus power for each rank on the display unit 250 of the plan unit 25. In the customer 9-1 (factory building), since the power load 27 is relatively large, the rank D margin power 303-1 is larger than the rank B margin power 301-1.

  Hereinafter, the surplus power to which rank A is assigned is referred to as “rank A surplus power”. Hereinafter, the surplus power to which rank B is assigned is referred to as “rank B surplus power”. Hereinafter, the surplus power to which rank C is assigned is referred to as “rank C surplus power”. Hereinafter, the surplus power to which rank D is assigned is referred to as “rank D surplus power”.

  In the customer 9-2 (office building), since the power load 27 is relatively small, the rank A margin power 300-2, the rank B margin power 301-2, or the rank C margin power 302-2 is rank D margin power 303. Relatively more than -2. In customer 9-3 (school building), since power load 27 is relatively small, rank A margin power 300-3, rank B margin power 301-3 or rank C margin power 302-3 is rank D margin power. It is relatively more than 303-3.

  FIG. 18 is a diagram illustrating rank A power. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The surplus power estimation unit 24 may extract a graph of surplus power to which rank A is assigned from the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 18, the margin power estimation unit 24 extracts a graph indicating the rank A margin power 300-2 and a graph indicating the rank A margin power 300-3 from the graph illustrated in FIG. The surplus power estimation unit 24 may display a graph of surplus power to which rank A is assigned on the display unit 250 of the plan unit 25.

  FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating the power of rank A and rank B. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The margin power estimation unit 24 may extract a margin power graph to which rank A and rank B are assigned from the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 19, the margin power estimation unit 24 includes a graph indicating the rank B margin power 301-1, a graph indicating the rank A margin power 300-2, a graph indicating the rank B margin power 301-2, and a rank A margin. A graph showing the power 300-3 and a graph showing the rank B margin power 301-3 are extracted from the graph shown in FIG. The marginal power estimation unit 24 may display a graph of marginal power to which rank A and rank B are assigned on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  FIG. 20 is a diagram illustrating the power of rank A, rank B, and rank C. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The margin power estimation unit 24 may extract a margin power graph to which rank A, rank B, and rank C are assigned from the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 20, the margin power estimation unit 24 includes a graph indicating the rank B margin power 301-1, a graph indicating the rank A margin power 300-2, a graph indicating the rank B margin power 301-2, and a rank C margin. A graph showing the power 302-2, a graph showing the rank A margin power 300-3, a graph showing the rank B margin power 301-3, and a graph showing the rank C margin power 302-3 are shown in FIG. Extract from graph. The marginal power estimation unit 24 may display a graph of marginal power to which rank A, rank B, and rank C are assigned on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  FIG. 21 is a diagram showing the total power of rank A. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The surplus power estimation unit 24 may create a graph indicating the total surplus power to which rank A is assigned based on the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 21, the margin power estimation unit 24 creates a graph indicating the sum of the rank A margin power 300-2 and the rank A margin power 300-3 based on the graph shown in FIG. The margin power estimation unit 24 may display a graph indicating the sum of the rank A margin power 300-2 and the rank A margin power 300-3 on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  FIG. 22 is a diagram illustrating the sum of power of rank A and rank B. In FIG. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The surplus power estimation unit 24 may create a graph indicating the total surplus power to which rank A and rank B are assigned based on the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 22, the margin power estimation unit 24 performs the rank B margin power 301-1, the rank A margin power 300-2, the rank B margin power 301-2, the rank A margin power 300-3, and the rank B margin power 301-3. Is created based on the graph shown in FIG. The margin power estimation unit 24 may display a graph indicating the sum of the rank A margin power 300-2 and the rank A margin power 300-3 on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  FIG. 23 is a diagram illustrating the total power of rank B. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The marginal power estimation unit 24 may create a graph indicating the total marginal power allocated rank B based on the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 23, the margin power estimation unit 24 generates a graph indicating the sum of the rank B margin power 301-1, the rank B margin power 301-2, and the rank B margin power 301-3 based on the graph illustrated in FIG. create. The margin power estimation unit 24 may display a graph indicating the sum of the rank B margin power 301-1, the rank B margin power 301-2, and the rank B margin power 301-3 on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25. Good.

  FIG. 24 is a diagram illustrating the sum of power of rank A, rank B, and rank C. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The margin power estimation unit 24 may create a graph indicating the total margin power allocated with rank A, rank B, and rank C based on the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 24, the margin power estimation unit 24 performs the rank B margin power 301-1, the rank A margin power 300-2, the rank B margin power 301-2, the rank C margin power 302-2, and the rank A margin power 300-3. And the graph which shows the sum total of rank B marginal power 301-3 and rank C marginal power 302-3 is created based on the graph shown in FIG. The margin power estimation unit 24 performs rank B margin power 301-1, rank A margin power 300-2, rank B margin power 301-2, rank C margin power 302-2, rank A margin power 300-3, rank B margin. A graph indicating the sum of the power 301-3 and the rank C margin power 302-3 may be displayed on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  FIG. 25 is a diagram illustrating the sum of rank C power. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The margin power estimation unit 24 may create a graph indicating the total margin power allocated with rank C based on the graph shown in FIG. In FIG. 25, the margin power estimation unit 24 creates a graph showing the sum of the rank C margin power 302-2 and the rank C margin power 302-3 based on the graph shown in FIG. The margin power estimation unit 24 may display a graph indicating the sum of the rank C margin power 302-2 and the rank C margin power 302-3 on the display unit 250 of the planning unit 25.

  The planning unit 25 illustrated in FIG. 4 determines a demand response plan based on the estimated value of active power estimated by the power load estimation unit 23 and the estimated value of marginal power estimated by the marginal power estimation unit 24. The planning unit 25 determines a demand response plan by giving priority to surplus power that allows the demander 9 to easily implement the demand response. For example, the planning unit 25 prioritizes the surplus power to which the rank A is assigned, and determines a demand response plan. Note that the planning unit 25 may determine a demand response plan based on surplus power (amount of surplus power) per hour or 30 minutes.

  The plan unit 25 determines a demand response plan based on the surplus power to which rank A and rank B are allocated when the target value of the reduced power cannot be achieved only by the surplus power to which rank A is allocated. When the plan unit 25 cannot achieve the target value of the reduced power with only the surplus power to which rank A and rank B are allocated, the demand response is based on the surplus power to which rank A, rank B and rank C are allocated. Determine the plan. The planning unit 25 transmits information indicating a demand response plan to the DR request unit 20.

  As described above, the DR management unit 17 (power estimation device) of the first embodiment includes the harmonic component determination unit 230, the active power estimation unit 233, and the margin power estimation unit 24. The harmonic component determination unit 230 determines the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 22 based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 21 that supplies power to the device 22. The active power estimation unit 233 estimates the active power for each type of the device 22 based on the harmonic component value of the active power. The surplus power estimation unit 24 calculates a surplus power value, which is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device 22, based on the rank determined in advance according to the ease of reduction and the active power for each type of the device 22. Estimate based on the estimated value.

  With this configuration, the DR management unit 17 (power estimation device) of the first embodiment can estimate the margin power that is power that can be reduced in the power demand of the customer 9.

The planning unit 25 determines the power value to be reduced from the power demand of the device 22 based on the estimated value of the active power and the surplus power for each type of the device 22.
With this configuration, the DR request unit 20 (power estimation apparatus) of the first embodiment can quickly request a demand response.

(Second Embodiment)
The second embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the surplus power in the generated power of the generator 5 is taken into consideration. In the second embodiment, only differences from the first embodiment will be described.

  The surplus power (reserve capacity) in the generated power of the generator 5 includes a blink reserve capacity and a standby reserve capacity. The instantaneous reserve power is a reserve power that generates power until the generated power of the generator 5 during operation reaches the maximum generated power (maximum output). The standby reserve power is reserve power for generating power until the stopped generator 5 is activated and the generated power of the generator 5 reaches the maximum generated power.

  FIG. 26 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the regional energy management system 10. The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 from the power load estimation unit 23. The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 from the power load estimation unit 23. The surplus power estimation unit 24 estimates surplus power based on the estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 and a predetermined assumed value of power demand.

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires the value of surplus power in the power generated by the generator 5 from the generator control unit 18. The margin power estimation unit 24 adds the margin power value in the power generated by the generator 5 to the margin power value. The margin power estimation unit 24 determines the result of addition as a value after the margin power is updated. That is, the surplus power estimation unit 24 includes the value of the surplus power in the power generated by the generator 5 in the surplus power value of the power demand in the consumer 9.

As described above, the marginal power estimation unit 24 in the second embodiment is based on the power value, rank, and active power estimated value of the generator 5 that can supply power to the device 22. Estimate the marginal power value.
With this configuration, the surplus power estimation unit 24 in the second embodiment can estimate a larger surplus power value than the surplus power of the device 22. The planning unit 25 can determine a demand response plan more flexibly.

(Third embodiment)
The third embodiment is different from the second embodiment in that the surplus power in the discharged power of the storage battery 6 is further considered. In the third embodiment, only differences from the second embodiment will be described.

  The surplus power (reserve power) (dischargeable power) in the generated power of the storage battery 6 includes an instantaneous reserve capacity and a standby reserve capacity. The instantaneous reserve capacity is a reserve capacity for discharging until the discharge power of the storage battery 6 during operation reaches the maximum discharge power (maximum output). The instantaneous reserve capacity is estimated based on the remaining charge of the storage battery 6 during operation. The storage battery 6 cannot discharge power exceeding the maximum discharge power. The standby reserve power is a reserve power that is discharged until the stopped storage battery 6 is activated and the discharge power of the storage battery 6 reaches the maximum discharge power.

  FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the regional energy management system 10. The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 from the power load estimation unit 23. The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires an estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 from the power load estimation unit 23. The surplus power estimation unit 24 estimates surplus power based on the estimated value of the current active power of the device 22 and a predetermined assumed value of power demand.

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires the value of surplus power in the power generated by the generator 5 from the generator control unit 18. The margin power estimation unit 24 adds the margin power value in the power generated by the generator 5 to the margin power value. The margin power estimation unit 24 determines the result of the addition as the first value after the margin power is updated.

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires the value of surplus power in the discharge power of the storage battery 6 from the storage battery control unit 19. The margin power estimation unit 24 adds the margin power value in the discharged power of the storage battery 6 to the first value after the margin power is updated. The margin power estimation unit 24 determines the result of adding the margin power value in the discharge power of the storage battery 6 as the second value after the margin power is updated. That is, the surplus power estimation unit 24 includes the value of the surplus power in the discharge power of the storage battery 6 in the value of the surplus power of the power demand in the consumer 9.

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 may determine the value of the surplus power in the discharge power of the storage battery 6 based on the information acquired from the generator control unit 18.

  FIG. 28 is a flowchart showing an operation for determining the value of the surplus power in the discharged power of the storage battery 6. The surplus power estimation unit 24 acquires current discharge power information and remaining charge information of the storage battery 6 from the storage battery control unit 19 (step S101). The margin power estimation unit 24 estimates based on the equation (22) (step S102).

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 estimates the surplus power amount of the storage battery 6 based on the equation (23) (step S103).

  The surplus power estimation unit 24 determines whether or not the surplus power amount of the storage battery 6 exceeds the remaining charge amount based on the equation (24) (step S104).

  When the surplus power amount of the storage battery 6 exceeds the remaining charge amount (step S104: YES), the surplus power estimation unit 24 discharges the discharge power amount to a value equal to the remaining charge amount of the storage battery 6 based on the equation (25). Is determined (step S105).

  When the surplus power amount of the storage battery 6 is less than or equal to the remaining charge amount (step S104: NO), the surplus power estimation unit 24 sets the discharge power amount to a value equal to the surplus power amount of the storage battery 6 based on the equation (26). Determine (step S106).

  The margin power estimation unit 24 estimates the margin power value in the discharge power of the storage battery 6 based on the equation (27). The left side of Expression (27) indicates the value of the surplus power in the discharge power of the storage battery 6. The unit time of the demand response (DR) is, for example, 1 hour or 30 minutes (step S107).

As described above, the margin power estimation unit 24 according to the third embodiment provides a margin based on the power value, rank, and active power estimation value of the storage battery 6 that can supply power to the device 22. Estimate the power value. The marginal power estimation unit 24 in the third embodiment may estimate the marginal power value based on the power value, rank, and active power estimation value of at least one of the generator 5 and the storage battery 6.
With this configuration, the surplus power estimation unit 24 in the third embodiment can estimate a larger surplus power value than the surplus power of the device 22. The planning unit 25 can determine a demand response plan more flexibly.

(Fourth embodiment)
The fourth embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the planning unit 25 determines a demand response plan according to an incentive paid by the regional energy management system 10 to the manager of the consumer 9. In the fourth embodiment, only differences from the first embodiment will be described.

  The planning unit 25 shown in FIG. 4 includes an operating cost of the generator 5 (hereinafter referred to as “generator operating cost”), an operating cost of the storage battery 6 (hereinafter referred to as “storage battery operating cost”), and surplus power. Based on the value, an incentive to be paid to the customer 9 (hereinafter referred to as “customer incentive”) is calculated. The customer incentive is a price paid by the local energy management system 10 to the manager of the customer 9 who has executed a demand response in response to a request based on the contract.

  The generator operating cost is, for example, a fuel cost paid by the generator control unit 18. The generator operating cost is expressed by equation (28) when the fuel is gas.

  The overall efficiency is expressed by equation (29). The electric efficiency and the thermal efficiency shown in Expression (29) are unique values for each generator 5.

  The storage battery operating cost is expressed by Expression (30).

Next, a method for determining customer incentives will be described.
Hereinafter, when the DR request unit 20 presents a consumer incentive to the manager of the consumer 9, the manager of the consumer 9 has accepted the consumer incentive and implemented a demand response, so that the demand has been reduced from the power demand. The power is referred to as “DR execution power”.

  FIG. 29 is a diagram illustrating an example of the relationship between DR execution power and customer incentives. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents DR execution power. The DR implementation power is higher as there are more presented customer incentives. The DR execution power may be expressed as an amount of power based on a time unit in which the demand response is executed. The time unit for executing the demand response is, for example, one hour. When the time unit in which the demand response is performed is one hour, the DR execution power (kW) and the DR execution power amount (kWh) have the same numerical value.

  The DR request unit 20 of the regional energy management system 10 may acquire a request signal for requesting the execution of a demand response from the upper system 2 (commercial system). Hereinafter, the incentive (consideration) presented by the DR request unit 20 from the upper system 2 is referred to as “upper system incentive”. The host system 2 pays the local energy management system 10 that has requested the manager of the customer 9 to execute the demand response.

  FIG. 30 is a diagram illustrating an example of a relationship among DR execution power, a customer incentive, and a higher system incentive. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents DR execution power. The regional energy management system 10 loses when the DR request unit 20 pays more demand to the manager of the customer 9 than the higher system incentive presented by the higher system 2. In other words, the regional energy management system 10 obtains when the DR request unit 20 presents the higher system incentive presented by the higher system 2 less than the customer incentive that the DR request unit 20 pays to the manager of the customer 9. .

  DR implementation power decreases as customer incentives decrease. Therefore, the DR implementation power is less likely to exceed the power requested to be reduced by the upper system 2 as the customer incentive is reduced.

  FIG. 31 is a diagram illustrating an example of a relationship among DR execution power, customer incentives, higher system incentives, and generator operating costs. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents DR execution power. The electric power generated by the generator 5 is supplied to the device 22 of the consumer 9. When the generator operating cost is lower than the upper system incentive, and the planning unit 25 operates the generator 5, the local energy management system 10 obtains a gain compared to the case where the planning unit 25 does not operate the generator 5. To do. The planning unit 25 shown in FIG. 4 creates a plan for operating the generator 5. By operating the generator 5, the surplus power in the power demand of the equipment 22 of the consumer 9 increases.

  Hereinafter, the power requested by the DR request unit 20 from the host system 2 so as to reduce the power demand in the device 22 of the customer 9 is referred to as “DR execution request power”. Hereinafter, the DR execution request power when the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 are stopped is referred to as “stop DR execution request power”. Hereinafter, the DR execution request power when only the generator 5 is operated is referred to as “DR execution request power during power generation”. Hereinafter, the DR execution request power in the case of operating the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 is referred to as “DR execution request power during discharge”.

  FIG. 32 is a diagram illustrating an example of DR execution request power during power generation. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents DR execution power. The electric power generated by the generator 5 is supplied to the device 22 of the consumer 9. When the generator operating cost is lower than the upper system incentive, and the planning unit 25 operates the generator 5, the local energy management system 10 obtains a gain compared to the case where the planning unit 25 does not operate the generator 5. To do. The planning unit 25 shown in FIG. 4 creates a plan for operating the generator 5. By operating the generator 5, the surplus power in the power demand of the equipment 22 of the consumer 9 increases.

  In FIG. 32, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR execution request power at the time of stop is in an area where the local energy management system 10 loses. That is, when the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response without the local energy management system 10 operating either the generator 5 or the storage battery 6, the consumer incentive is higher than the upper system incentive. System 10 loses.

  In FIG. 32, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR execution request power during power generation is in a region where the local energy management system 10 loses. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates only the generator 5 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the consumer incentive is higher than the higher system incentive. To do. The difference between the DR execution request power at the time of stoppage and the DR execution request power at the time of power generation indicates the generated power of the generator 5.

  Hereinafter, the power that is scheduled to be reduced from the power demand by performing the demand response based on the plan created by the planning unit 25 is referred to as “DR execution planned power”. Hereinafter, the customer incentive that the regional energy management system 10 pays to the manager of the customer 9 when the planned DR implementation power is reduced from the power demand is referred to as “scheduled incentive”. Hereinafter, a customer incentive that is less than the upper system incentive is referred to as an “economic customer incentive”.

  FIG. 33 is a diagram illustrating an example of DR execution request power during discharge / discharge. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents DR execution power. The electric power generated by the generator 5 is supplied to the device 22 of the consumer 9. When the generator operating cost is lower than the upper system incentive, and the planning unit 25 operates the generator 5, the local energy management system 10 obtains a gain compared to the case where the planning unit 25 does not operate the generator 5. To do. The planning unit 25 shown in FIG. 4 creates a plan for operating the generator 5. By operating the generator 5, the surplus power in the power demand of the equipment 22 of the consumer 9 increases.

  The electric power discharged from the storage battery 6 is supplied to the device 22 of the consumer 9. When the storage battery operating cost is lower than the upper system incentive, and the planning unit 25 operates the storage battery 6, the local energy management system 10 obtains as compared to the case where the planning unit 25 does not operate the storage battery 6. The planning unit 25 illustrated in FIG. 4 creates a plan for operating the storage battery 6. By operating the storage battery 6, the surplus power in the power demand of the device 22 of the consumer 9 increases.

  In FIG. 33, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR execution request power at the time of stop is in an area where the local energy management system 10 loses. That is, when the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response without the local energy management system 10 operating either the generator 5 or the storage battery 6, the consumer incentive is higher than the upper system incentive. System 10 loses.

  In FIG. 33, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR execution request power during power generation is in a region where the local energy management system 10 loses. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates only the generator 5 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the consumer incentive is higher than the higher system incentive. To do.

  In FIG. 33, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR execution request power at the time of discharge is in an area where the local energy management system 10 can obtain. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the planned incentive is less than the upper system incentive. do. The planning unit 25 determines that the demand response requested from the upper system 2 can be implemented because the planned incentive is less than the upper system incentive. That is, the planning unit 25 determines that the demand response requested from the higher-order system 2 can be implemented because the planned incentive is an economic customer incentive (optimum customer incentive). The difference between the DR execution request power during power generation and the DR execution request power during discharge / discharge indicates the discharge power of the storage battery 6.

  When the local energy management system 10 operates the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the local energy management system 10 obtains a profit. A plan for operating the storage battery 6 is created.

  When the surplus power to which rank A is assigned is reduced from the power demand, the customer incentive is less than when the surplus power to which rank B is assigned is reduced from the power demand. When the surplus power to which rank B is assigned is reduced from the power demand, the customer incentive is less than when the surplus power to which rank C is assigned is reduced from the power demand.

  FIG. 34 is a diagram illustrating a first example of DR scheduled execution power of rank A. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents the DR execution power of rank A. In FIG. 34, the surplus power of rank A is greater than the stop-time DR execution request power. In FIG. 34, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the rank A DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the stop DR execution request power is in an area where the local energy management system 10 can obtain. That is, when the local energy management system 10 stops the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the planned incentive is less than the upper system incentive. do. In FIG. 34, the value of the DR execution planned power of rank A is equal to the value of the stop DR execution request power.

  Therefore, the planning unit 25 can achieve the demand response request by creating a plan for reducing the surplus power assigned the rank A from the power demand and stopping the generator 5 or the storage battery 6.

  FIG. 35 is a diagram illustrating a second example of DR execution planned power of rank A. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents the DR execution power of rank A. In FIG. 35, the surplus power of rank A is less than the stop-time DR execution request power. Therefore, even if the planning unit 25 creates a plan for reducing only the surplus power of rank A from the power demand, it cannot achieve the demand response request.

  In FIG. 35, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the rank A DR execution power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the power generation DR execution request power is in an area where the local energy management system 10 can obtain. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates the generator 5 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the local energy management system 10 gains because the planned incentive is less than the higher system incentive. In FIG. 35, the value of DR execution planned power of rank A is equal to the value of DR execution request power during power generation.

  Therefore, the planning unit 25 can achieve the demand response request by creating a plan for reducing the rank A marginal power from the power demand and operating the generator 5.

  FIG. 36 is a diagram illustrating a third example of DR execution planned power of rank A. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents the DR execution power of rank A. In FIG. 36, the surplus power of rank A is smaller than the stop-time DR execution request power. In FIG. 36, the surplus power of rank A is less than the DR execution request power during discharge / discharge. Therefore, the plan unit 25 cannot achieve the demand response request even if the plan A 25 reduces the surplus power of rank A from the power demand and further creates a plan for operating the generator 5 and the storage battery 6.

  In FIG. 36, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the rank A DR implementation power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the margin A power margin is in an area where the regional energy management system 10 can obtain. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the planned incentive is less than the upper system incentive. do. In FIG. 36, the value of the planned DR execution power for rank A is equal to the value of the margin power for rank A. In FIG. 36, even if the plan unit 25 reduces the surplus power of rank A from the power demand and further creates a plan for operating the generator 5 and the storage battery 6, the demand response request cannot be achieved. The planning unit 25 determines that the demand response requested from the higher-order system 2 cannot be performed with only the margin A power reserve.

  FIG. 37 is a diagram illustrating a fourth example of DR scheduled execution power for rank A. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis represents the DR execution power of rank A. In FIG. 37, the surplus power of rank A is less than the DR execution request power at the time of stop. In FIG. 37, the power margin of rank A is less than the DR execution request power during discharge / discharge. Therefore, the plan unit 25 cannot achieve the demand response request even if the plan A 25 reduces the surplus power of rank A from the power demand and further creates a plan for operating the generator 5 and the storage battery 6. The planning unit 25 determines that the demand response requested from the higher-order system 2 cannot be performed with only the margin A power reserve.

  In FIG. 37, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the rank A DR implementation power and the customer incentive and the line indicating the surplus power of rank A indicates the region obtained by the regional energy management system 10 and the regional energy management system. 10 is at the boundary with the losing area. That is, when the local energy management system 10 operates the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the planned incentive matches the higher system incentive. Will not gain or lose. In FIG. 37, the DR execution planned power value of rank A is equal to the DR execution power at which higher system incentive can be obtained.

  If the demand for demand response cannot be achieved only with the rank A margin power, the margin power of the generator 5, and the margin power of the storage battery 6, the planning unit 25 further plans to reduce the rank B margin power from the power demand. create.

  FIG. 38 is a diagram illustrating DR execution power of rank B. The horizontal axis shows customer incentives. The vertical axis indicates the DR execution power of rank B. In FIG. 38, the surplus power of rank B is greater than the stop-time DR execution request power. In FIG. 38, the intersection of the curve indicating the relationship between the DR implementation power of rank B and the customer incentive and the line indicating the DR implementation demand power at the time of stop is in an area where the local energy management system 10 can obtain. That is, when the local energy management system 10 stops the generator 5 and the storage battery 6 and the device 22 of the consumer 9 performs a demand response, the planned incentive is less than the upper system incentive. do. In FIG. 38, the value of the DR execution scheduled power of rank B is equal to the value of the stop DR execution request power.

  Therefore, the planning unit 25 can achieve the demand response request by creating a plan for reducing the surplus power assigned with rank B from the power demand and stopping the generator 5 or the storage battery 6. The planning unit 25 determines that the demand response requested from the higher-order system 2 can be performed based on the surplus power of ranks A and B.

  FIG. 39 is a flowchart showing an operation for determining a consumer incentive. The planning unit 25 determines a planned incentive for rank A (step S201). The planning unit 25 determines whether or not the margin A power reserve is equal to or higher than the stop DR execution request power (step S202). When the rank A surplus power is equal to or greater than the stop DR execution request power (step S201: YES), the planning unit 25 determines the rank A planned incentive as the rank A customer incentive (step S203).

  When the rank A surplus power is less than the stop DR execution request power (step S201: NO), the planning unit 25 determines a planned incentive for rank B (step S204). The planning unit 25 determines whether or not the surplus power of rank B is equal to or higher than the stop DR execution request power (step S205). When the surplus power of rank B is equal to or higher than the DR execution request power at the time of stop (step S205: YES), the planning unit 25 determines the planned incentive of rank A as the customer incentive of rank A. The planning unit 25 determines the planned incentive for rank B as the customer incentive for rank B (step S206).

  When the rank B surplus power is less than the stop DR execution request power (step S205: NO), the planning unit 25 determines a planned incentive for rank C (step S207). The planning unit 25 determines whether or not the margin C power is equal to or greater than the stop DR execution request power (step S208). When the marginal power of rank C is equal to or higher than the DR execution request power at the time of stop (step S208: YES), the planning unit 25 determines the planned incentive of rank A as the consumer incentive of rank A. The planning unit 25 determines the planned incentive for rank B as the customer incentive for rank B. The planning unit 25 determines the planned incentive for rank C as the customer incentive for rank C (step S209).

  When the rank C marginal power is equal to or greater than the stop DR execution request power (step S208: NO), the planning unit 25 determines that there is no customer incentive (no customer incentive). For example, the DR request unit 20 does not make a contract for implementation of a demand response (step S210).

  FIG. 40 is a diagram illustrating an example of display of surplus power. The display unit 250 shown in FIG. 4 includes a value of the total surplus power of the consumer 9, a surplus power value of the consumer 9-1 (factory building), and a surplus power of the consumer 9-2 (office building). And the value of the surplus power of the customer 9-3 (school building). The display unit 250 displays the rank A margin power value, the rank B margin power value, and the rank C margin power value for the entire consumer 9. Similarly, the display unit 250 displays the value of the rank A margin power, the rank B margin power, and the rank C margin power for the consumers 9-1 to 9-3. In FIG. 40, the display unit 250 displays the value of surplus power and the like in a box.

  The display unit 250 displays the value of the generated power (reserve power) for the entire generator 5. The same applies to the generators 5-1 to 5-2. The display unit 250 displays the value of the discharge power (reserve power) and the value of the discharge power amount for the entire storage battery 6. Similarly, the display unit 250 displays the value of the discharge power and the value of the discharge power amount for the storage batteries 6-1 to 6-2. The display unit 250 may display lines indicating the power system 4 and the customer end interconnection line 7.

  FIG. 41 is a diagram illustrating an example of display of a higher system incentive. The display unit 250 displays customer incentives for the entire customer 9. The display unit 250 displays the generator operating cost per generated power (standby power) for the entire generator 5. The display unit 250 similarly displays the generator operating cost per generated power for the generators 5-1 to 5-2. The display unit 250 displays the storage battery operating cost per discharge power (reserve power) for the entire storage battery 6. Similarly, the display unit 250 displays the storage battery operating cost per discharge power for the storage batteries 6-1 to 6-2.

  FIG. 42 is a diagram illustrating an example of displaying a DR execution determination result. The display unit 250 displays information (DR execution determination result) indicating whether or not the demand response requested from the host system 2 can be executed. That is, the display unit 250 displays information (DR execution determination result) indicating whether or not it is possible to reduce the power more than the DR execution request power at the time of stoppage from the total power demand of the customer 9.

  The display unit 250 displays the total value of DR execution planned power and the total value of customer incentives for the entire customer 9. The display unit 250 displays the value of the DR scheduled execution power of rank A, the value of planned DR execution power of rank B, and the value of planned DR execution power of rank C for the entire customer 9. The display unit 250 displays a rank A customer incentive, a rank B customer incentive, and a rank C customer incentive for the entire customer 9. The rank A customer incentive is an incentive that the regional energy management system 10 pays to the customer 9 by reducing the DR implementation planned power of rank A from the power demand of the customer 9.

  The display unit 250 displays information acquired from the upper system 2 when the host system 2 requests execution of a demand response. For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the DR execution request power at the time of stop. For example, the display unit 250 displays a higher system incentive.

  The display unit 250 displays the value of the generated power (reserve power) for the entire generator 5. The display unit 250 displays the value of discharge power (reserve power) and the amount of discharge power for the entire storage battery 6. The display unit 250 displays the generator operating cost per generated power for the entire generator 5. The display unit 250 displays the storage battery operating cost per discharged power and the storage battery operating cost per discharged power for the entire storage battery 6.

  FIG. 43 is a diagram illustrating an example of display of DR execution scheduled power. The display unit 250 may display information added to the display example shown in FIG. For example, the display unit 250 displays the rank A margin power value, the rank B margin power value, and the rank C margin power value for the consumer 9-1. For example, the display unit 250 displays the rank A margin power value, the rank B margin power value, and the rank C margin power value similarly for the consumers 9-2 to 9-3. . For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the generated power (reserve power) for the generator 5-1. For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the generated power for the generator 5-2. For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the discharge power (reserve power) and the value of the discharge power amount for the entire storage battery 6. For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the discharge power and the value of the discharge power amount for the storage battery 6-1. For example, the display unit 250 displays the value of the discharge power and the value of the discharge power amount for the storage battery 6-2. For example, the display unit 250 may display lines indicating the power system 4 and the customer end interconnection line 7.

  FIG. 44 is a diagram illustrating an example of display of customer incentives. The display unit 250 displays the total value of the DR execution request power (stopped DR execution request power) and the total value of the customer incentive for the entire customer 9. The display unit 250 displays the total value of DR execution request power and the total value of customer incentives for the customer 9-1. The display unit 250 displays the total value of DR execution request power and the total value of customer incentives for the customer 9-2. The display unit 250 displays the total value of DR execution request power and the total value of customer incentives for the customer 9-3. The DR request unit 20 transmits a request signal for requesting execution of a demand response to the manager of the customer 9 or the device 22 based on the customer incentive for each customer 9 shown in FIG.

  FIG. 45 is a diagram illustrating an example of displaying the number of DR implementations. The planning unit 25 pays the customer incentive to the customer 9 based on the probability that the customer 9 has executed the demand response based on the request signal (hereinafter referred to as “DR execution rate”). The DR execution rate is a value obtained by dividing the number of times that a demand response is executed (hereinafter referred to as “DR execution number”) by the number of times that a demand response is requested (hereinafter referred to as “DR request number”). The DR implementation rate may be expressed as a percentage.

  The display unit 250 displays the DR implementation rate, the number of DR implementations, and the number of DR requests for the customer 9-1. The display unit 250 displays the DR execution rate, the DR execution count, and the DR request count for the customer 9-2. The display unit 250 displays the DR execution rate, the DR execution count, and the DR request count for the customer 9-3.

  FIG. 46 is a diagram showing DR implementation margin power and DR implementation rate. The horizontal axis indicates the customer 9. The vertical axis represents power (kW). The planning unit 25 multiplies the value of the surplus power of the customer 9 by the DR execution rate. In FIG. 46, the planning unit 25 multiplies the value of the margin B power margin by the DR implementation rate (80%) as an example for the customer 9-1. For example, the planning unit 25 multiplies the value of the marginal power of ranks A to C by the DR implementation rate (100%) for the customer 9-2. The planning unit 25 multiplies the value of the surplus power of the ranks A to C of the customer 9-3 by a DR implementation rate (100%) as an example. The display unit 250 may display the result of multiplying the value of the surplus power by the DR execution rate in a graph.

As described above, the display unit 250 in the fourth embodiment displays the value of the surplus power that is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device 22.
With this configuration, the administrator of the regional energy management system 10 in the fourth embodiment can easily grasp the value of the surplus power.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, the value of margin power, which is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device, is determined for each rank and device type determined in advance according to the ease of reduction. By having a margin power estimation unit that estimates based on the estimated value of active power, it is possible to estimate margin power, which is power that can be reduced, out of the customer's power demand.

  As mentioned above, although some embodiment of this invention was described, these embodiment is shown as an example and is not intending limiting the range of invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Electric power system, 2 ... Host system, 3 ... Interconnection line, 4 ... Electric power system, 5 ... Generator, 6 ... Storage battery, 7 ... Consumer end connection line, 8 ... Measuring apparatus, 9 ... Consumer, 10 ... Regional energy management system, 11 ... Transmission system, 12 ... Communication line, 13 ... Integral control unit, 14 ... Demand prediction unit, 15 ... Economic operation unit, 16 ... Received power control unit, 17 ... DR management unit, 18 ... Generator control unit, 19 ... Storage battery control unit, 20 ... DR request unit, 21 ... Electric system, 22 ... Equipment, 23 ... Power load estimation unit, 24 ... Margin power estimation unit, 25 ... Planning unit, 26 ... Air conditioning power, 27 ... Power load, 28 ... PC / OA power, 29 ... Lighting power, 100 ... Harmonic pattern, 101 ... Active power value, 102 ... Active power time-series data, 103 ... Measured harmonic component, 230 ... Harmonic component Determination unit, 231 ... storage unit, 232 ... database Scan, 233 ... effective power estimation unit, 234 ... FFT unit, 250 ... display unit, 300 ... Rank A power margin, 301 ... Rank B power margin, 302 ... Rank C power margin, 303 ... Rank D power margin

Claims (7)

A harmonic component determination unit that determines a harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on an electrical physical quantity of an electrical system that supplies power to the device;
An active power estimation unit that estimates active power for each type of the device based on a harmonic component value of the active power;
Estimating the value of marginal power, which is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device, based on a rank predetermined according to the ease of reduction and the estimated value of active power for each type of the device A margin power estimation unit to perform,
A power estimation apparatus comprising:   The marginal power estimation unit is configured to determine a marginal power value based on a value of power of at least one of a generator and a storage battery capable of supplying power to the device, the rank, and an estimated value of the active power. The power estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein The power estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: a planning unit that determines a value of power to be reduced from a power demand of the device based on an estimated value of active power for each type of the device and the surplus power.   The power estimation apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the planning unit determines a price to be paid for reducing the power based on a value of power reduced from the power demand of the device. The power estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: a display unit that displays a value of marginal power that is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device. A power estimation method in a power estimation device, comprising:
Determining a harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on an electrical physical quantity of an electrical system that supplies power to the device; and
Estimating the active power for each type of the device based on the harmonic component value of the active power; and
Estimating the value of marginal power, which is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device, based on a rank predetermined according to the ease of reduction and the estimated value of active power for each type of the device And steps to
A power estimation method including: On the computer,
Determining a harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on an electrical physical quantity of an electrical system that supplies power to the device; and
A procedure for estimating the active power for each type of the device based on the harmonic component value of the active power,
Estimating the value of marginal power, which is power that can be reduced from the power demand of the device, based on a rank predetermined according to the ease of reduction and the estimated value of active power for each type of the device And the steps to
A power estimation program for executing

Images