JP2014527246A - 個々の顧客からシステムレベルへの負荷予測 - Google Patents
個々の顧客からシステムレベルへの負荷予測 Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
【選択図】図1
Description
本出願は、2011年9月17日に出願の「Bottom-up Load Forecasting from Individual Customer to System-Level Based on Price」と題する米国仮特許出願第61/535,949号に対する優先権の恩典を主張し、2011年9月17日に出願の「Machine Learning Applied to Smart Meter Data to Generate User Profiles-Specific Algorithms」と題する米国仮特許出願第61/535,946号に対する優先権の恩典を主張し、それぞれの内容はその全体を引用することにより本明細書の一部をなすものとする。
DROMS−RT:リアルタイムのデマンドレスポンス最適化及び管理システム
Claims (20)
- 動的価格信号の存在時に顧客負荷を個別に予測する方法であって、
各顧客場所において種々のデマンドレスポンスイベントに関する前記顧客の参加履歴を記録することと、
デマンドレスポンス固有データを複数の関連する時系列にセグメント化することと、
前記時系列を用いて顧客ごとの自己較正モデルを構築することと、
前記時系列からのフィードバックを取り込み、顧客負荷プロファイルの変化を予測することと、
機械学習技法及びデータマイニング技法を用いて、負荷使用量及び負荷制限と、予測に関連付けられる誤差分布とを予測することと、
を含む、方法。 - 前記デマンドレスポンス固有データは、デマンドレスポンスリソースデータと、前記データのタイプと、前記データの場所と、応答時間、ランプ時間のような特性と、公益事業者メーターデータと、ユーザー固有データと、時系列データと、季節性データと、価格指数データと、通知時間要件と、特定の期間内のイベント数と、連続的なイベント数と、イベントに参加するユーザー優先順位と、価格指数と、他の回帰に基づくデータとを含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記デマンドレスポンス固有データは季節性、発生時刻、価格指数、温度及び他の回帰パラメーターに基づいてセグメント化される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記デマンドレスポンス固有データをセグメント化するために用いられるセグメント化技法は、K平均法及びファジーK平均法アルゴリズムを含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記動的価格信号は、現在の条件と、デマンドレスポンスイベントに関連付けられる高度な通知要件とに関して可変である、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記負荷の予測は、時刻、気象及び価格信号の関数として実行される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記自己較正モデルは、前記顧客に関する制限容量、ランプ時間及びリバウンド効果を予測することができる、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記動的価格信号は、コスト、信頼性、負荷順序、優先順位、GHG等を含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記フィードバックは機械学習技法を通して与えられる、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記参加履歴は、高度検針インフラストラクチャーと、配電網上に設置されたセンサーとを通して収集される、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 前記機械学習技法は、ARIMAX、KNN、SVM又は人工ニューラルネットワーク又はこれらの組み合わせを含む、請求項1に記載の方法。
- 動的価格信号の存在時に顧客負荷を個別に予測する方法であって、
各顧客レベルにおいて定期的な電気使用量データを収集することと、
変圧器、給電線及び変電所レベルにおける前記電気使用量データを集計することと、
機械学習技法を用いて推定される価格弾力性の関数を用いて、電気負荷使用量についての顧客プロファイルを作成することと、
クラスタリング技法を用いて顧客の前記電気使用量データを時系列にセグメント化することと、
顧客ごとの前記電気負荷使用量と、給電線、変圧器及び変電所レベルにおける集計された負荷使用量とを予測することと、
を含む、動的価格信号の存在時に顧客負荷を個別に予測する方法。 - 前記動的価格信号は、負荷予測のための価格に基づくデマンドレスポンスを含む、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 前記動的価格信号はコスト、信頼性、負荷順序、優先順位、GHG等を含む、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 参加履歴は、過去のイベントへの参加の履歴、高価格イベントへの参加を低減する方策、通知時間要件を示す、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 最終レベルにおける電気使用量に基づいて個々の前記顧客プロファイルが生成される、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 前記機械学習技法は、ARIMAX、KNN、SVM若しくは人工ニューラルネットワーク又はそれらの組み合わせを含む、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 前記クラスタリング技法を用いて、季節性、発生時刻、価格指数、温度及び他の変数に基づいて前記使用量データを類似の時系列にセグメント化する、請求項12に記載の方法。
- デマンドレスポンスイベント固有データをセグメント化するために用いられるセグメント化技法は、K平均法及びファジーK平均法を含む、請求項12に記載の方法。
- 前記集計された電力負荷は個々の顧客の予測の和として計算される、請求項12に記載の方法。
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Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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US201161535946P | 2011-09-17 | 2011-09-17 | |
US201161535949P | 2011-09-17 | 2011-09-17 | |
US61/535,946 | 2011-09-17 | ||
US61/535,949 | 2011-09-17 | ||
PCT/US2012/000398 WO2013039553A1 (en) | 2011-09-17 | 2012-09-14 | Load forecasting from individual customer to system level |
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JP2014527246A true JP2014527246A (ja) | 2014-10-09 |
JP6236585B2 JP6236585B2 (ja) | 2017-11-29 |
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JP2014530652A Active JP6236585B2 (ja) | 2011-09-17 | 2012-09-14 | 個々の顧客からシステムレベルへの負荷予測 |
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US (2) | US20150046221A1 (ja) |
EP (1) | EP2756470A1 (ja) |
JP (1) | JP6236585B2 (ja) |
WO (1) | WO2013039553A1 (ja) |
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US20220172233A1 (en) | 2022-06-02 |
EP2756470A1 (en) | 2014-07-23 |
US20150046221A1 (en) | 2015-02-12 |
JP6236585B2 (ja) | 2017-11-29 |
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