JP2013152156A - Device for calculating amount of solar radiation, and control method and program of device for calculating amount of solar radiation - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To appropriately calculate the estimation value of an amount of solar radiation even if meteorological data having correlation is used.SOLUTION: A device for calculating solar radiation includes: a meteorological data table for storing observation values of predetermined kinds of metrological data, an observation value of the amount of solar radiation, and the amount of solar radiation in fair weather obtained by a position of sun seen from an observation point in correspondence with information indicating date and time; a relational expression calculation part for calculating a relational expression representing a relation between these values using a partial least squares method on the basis of the observation values of the predetermined kinds of the meteorological data, the observation value of the amount of solar radiation and the amount of solar radiation in fair weather during a predetermined period in past which are stored in the meteorological data table; information input part for receiving information designating date and time for calculating the estimation value of the amount of solar radiation; an estimation value calculation part for calculating the estimation value of the amount of solar radiation at the designated date and time on the basis of forecast values of the predetermined kinds of the meteorological data at the designated date and time, the amount of solar radiation in fair weather at the designated date and time, and the relational expression; and a forecast value output part for outputting the forecast value of the amount of solar radiation.

Description

  The present invention relates to a solar radiation amount calculating device, a method for controlling a solar radiation amount calculating device, and a program.

In recent years, power generation systems using natural energy, particularly solar power generation systems, are becoming widespread. Since the amount of power generated by the solar power generation system is greatly influenced by the amount of solar radiation, it is important to accurately predict the amount of solar radiation for stable operation of the power system.
In this regard, weather forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency are important. The weather forecast is calculated and forecasted by a numerical model called a weather model by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The meteorological model is a technique for numerically calculating the movement of the atmosphere, water vapor, etc. by dividing the whole earth or a part thereof into several tens of km mesh with respect to the horizontal plane and several tens of layers in the vertical direction.

According to this method, it is possible to calculate wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, etc. up to several tens of hours ahead in units of one hour. However, the meteorological agency's meteorological model cannot calculate solar radiation.
For this reason, for example, as in Patent Document 1 and Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2 below, a technique for predicting the amount of solar radiation using weather data such as cloud amount and humidity has been developed.

Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for obtaining a regression equation representing the relationship between the cloud amount / humidity data of a plurality of layers and the amount of solar radiation, and predicting the amount of solar radiation using the cloud amount / humidity data of the plurality of layers as input data.
Non-Patent Document 1 and Non-Patent Document 2 show a technique for obtaining a regression equation representing the relationship between the humidity data of a plurality of layers and the amount of solar radiation, and predicting the amount of solar radiation using the humidity data of the plurality of layers as input information. ing.

JP 2011-53168 A

2004, 2005 New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization Commissioned Business Results Report, Innovative Next Generation Photovoltaic Power System Technology R & D, `` Leading R & D for Solar Power Systems with Improved Autonomy '', p. 56-60, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 2006 Kataoka, “Prediction of solar radiation using numerical data forecast of cloud cover”, Proceedings of Solar / Wind Energy Lecture, 2009

However, in general, regression equations assume that the explanatory variables are independent of each other. Therefore, when obtaining a regression equation representing a relationship between a plurality of data, if there is a strong dependency between explanatory variables, the accuracy of the regression equation is lowered.
In this regard, for example, the cloud cover of the upper, middle, and lower layers announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency has a great influence on the amount of solar radiation, so it is very important as an explanatory variable when calculating the amount of solar radiation. In general, all three layers are cloudy, and on sunny days, all three layers are usually cloudless. That is, the cloud amounts of these three layers are correlated, and are not independent.
Therefore, even if a regression equation representing the relationship between the cloud amount of each layer and the amount of solar radiation is obtained, improvement in accuracy cannot be expected so much.

Therefore, for example, in addition to the cloud data of each layer, it is possible to calculate the regression equation by adding the humidity data to the explanatory variables, but when the humidity is high, the cloud volume also increases. There is a relationship.
For this reason, it is conceivable to solve the drawbacks caused by using such highly correlated data by increasing the number of data samples. However, for example, a sufficient amount of samples are not prepared in a short period of time after the installation of a weather observation device, for example, and it is not always possible to construct a regression equation with sufficient accuracy.
Alternatively, it is also possible to construct a regression equation with only uncorrelated explanatory variables by representing multiple explanatory variables with high correlation with one explanatory variable and deleting the remaining explanatory variables. . For example, it is a case where data relating to the cloud amount of the upper layer and the middle layer is deleted from the cloud amount data of the upper layer, the middle layer, and the lower layer, and a regression equation is constructed using only the cloud amount data of the lower layer. The value of the objective variable calculated using the regression equation constructed in this way is numerically stable, but the value of the objective variable does not change even if the deleted explanatory variable changes.

  The present invention has been made in view of such problems, and a solar radiation amount calculating device and a solar radiation amount calculating device capable of appropriately calculating a predicted value of solar radiation amount even when weather data having a correlation is used. It is an object to provide a control method and program.

  The present invention is a solar radiation amount calculation device for calculating a predicted value of solar radiation based on a relational expression representing a relationship between predetermined weather data and solar radiation amount, the observation value of the predetermined weather data, and the solar radiation amount A meteorological data table that stores the observed value of the quantity and the amount of solar radiation in fine weather determined by the position of the sun as seen from the observation point in association with information indicating the observation date and time, and the past stored in the weather data table Based on the observed value of the meteorological data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the solar radiation amount in the fine weather within a predetermined period of time, a relational expression representing the relationship between these values is expressed by a partial least square method. A relational expression calculation unit that calculates using the information, an information input unit that receives information specifying the date and time for calculating the predicted value of the solar radiation amount, the forecast value of the weather data at the specified date and time, and the solar radiation in the fine weather Quantity and the relational expression Based on includes a predicted value calculation unit for calculating a predicted value of the solar radiation in said designated time, and a prediction value output unit for outputting the predicted value of the solar radiation.

  In addition, the problems disclosed by the present application and the solutions thereof will be clarified by the description in the column of the embodiment for carrying out the invention and the description of the drawings.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to appropriately calculate a predicted value of solar radiation even when weather data having a correlation is used.

It is a figure which shows the example of whole structure of a solar radiation amount calculation system. It is a figure which shows the hardware structural example of a solar radiation amount calculation apparatus. It is a figure which shows the memory | storage device of the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus. It is a figure which shows a humidity data table. It is a figure which shows a cloudiness data table. It is a figure which shows a solar radiation amount data table. It is a figure which shows the functional block of a solar radiation amount calculation apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus. It is a figure which shows the calculation result of solar radiation amount. It is a figure which shows the calculation result of solar radiation amount. It is a figure which shows the calculation result of solar radiation amount.

== Solar radiation amount calculation system ==
A solar radiation amount calculation system 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

  The solar radiation amount calculation system 1000 includes a solar radiation amount calculation device 100 and a weather information providing device 200 that are communicably connected via a network 300.

  The weather information providing apparatus 200 is a computer that provides weather data including various weather observation results and weather forecasts. The meteorological information providing apparatus 200 may, for example, check the weather observation results at a predetermined time every day (for example, 0:00, 3:00, 6:00, 9:00, 12:00, 15:00, 18:00, 21:00) and a predetermined time in the future. Regularly provide forecasts of meteorological data in

  The solar radiation amount calculating device 100 acquires various types of weather data from the weather information providing device 200, and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between the predetermined types of weather data and the solar radiation amount based on the past meteorological data. It is a computer which calculates | requires the relational expression showing the relationship between a predetermined kind of weather data and solar radiation amount. Further, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 calculates a predicted value of the solar radiation amount based on the forecast value of the meteorological data at the designated date and time and the relational expression.

  Although described in detail below, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 7, is based on position information (for example, latitude, longitude) and date / time of a point where a predicted value of solar radiation amount is calculated, Calculate the amount of sunny solar radiation from the position of the sun visible from that point, the observed value of the past solar radiation stored in the weather data table 500, the observed value of the past cloud cover, the observed value of the past humidity, Based on the above, a relational expression between these observed values and the amount of solar radiation is obtained, and using this relational expression, a predicted value of the solar radiation amount for the specified day is calculated.

== Configuration of Solar Radiation Calculation Device ==
Next, the configuration of the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 will be described with reference to the drawings as appropriate.
As illustrated in FIG. 2, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 110, a memory 120, a communication I / F (interface) 130, a storage device 140, an input I / F 150, and an output I / F 160. Prepare. Further, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 is connected to a recording medium reading device 190.

  The CPU 110 is responsible for overall control of the solar radiation amount calculating device 100, and implements various functions as the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 by reading the solar radiation amount calculating program 400 stored in the storage device 140 into the memory 120 and executing it. To do.

  The recording medium reading device 190 is a device for reading and writing programs and data recorded on the recording medium 800. The read program and data are stored in the memory 120 and the storage device 140.

  As the recording medium 800, a flexible disk, a magnetic tape, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, or the like can be used.

  The input I / F 150 is connected to the input device 170. The input device 170 is a device used for data input to the solar radiation amount calculation device 100 by an operator or the like, and functions as a user interface. For example, a keyboard or a mouse can be used as the input device 170.

  The output I / F 160 is connected to the output device 180. The output device 180 is a device for outputting information to the outside, and functions as a user interface. For example, a display or a printer can be used as the output device 180.

  The communication I / F 130 is a device for performing communication. The communication I / F 130 is connected to the weather information providing apparatus 200 via the network 300, for example, and receives various weather data provided from the weather information providing apparatus 200. The communication I / F 130 may be communicably connected to another computer via the network 300.

  The storage device 140 is constituted by a hard disk device, for example. As illustrated in FIG. 3, the storage device 140 stores a solar radiation amount calculation program 400 and a weather data table 500 (humidity data table 510, cloud amount data table 520, solar radiation amount data table 530).

<Meteorological data table>
The weather data table 500 is a table for storing various weather data transmitted from the weather information providing apparatus 200.
In FIG. 3, among the various weather data acquired by the solar radiation amount calculation device 100 from the weather information providing device 200, the humidity data table 510, the cloudiness data table 520, the solar radiation data An example in which the data is stored in the quantity data table 530 and these tables are collectively stored in the weather data table 500 is shown.
The weather data table 500 stores various weather data for the past several years, for example.

<Humidity data table>
The humidity data table 510 is a table in which weather data relating to humidity acquired by the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 from the weather information providing apparatus 200 is stored in association with the date and time when the humidity was observed.

  A humidity data table 510 is shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 4, in this embodiment, the values of humidity observed at altitudes where the atmospheric pressure is a predetermined atmospheric pressure (1000 hPa, 925 hPa, 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 600 hPa, 500 hPa, 400 hPa, 300 hPa) Is stored in the humidity data table 510 in association with the information indicating. In FIG. 4, for example, the humidity value at 9:00 am every day is shown.

<Cloud cover data table>
The cloud amount data table 520 is a table that stores weather data related to the cloud amount acquired by the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 from the weather information providing device 200 in association with the date and time when the cloud amount was observed.

  The cloud amount data table 520 is shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 5, in the present embodiment, the cloud amounts of the upper layer, middle layer, lower layer, and all layers are stored in the cloud amount data table 520 in association with information indicating the observation date and time. FIG. 5 shows the cloud amount at 9 am every day.

  For example, the cloud amount is indicated by 0 to 100% in each layer. In addition, the upper layer, the middle layer, and the lower layer are height divisions according to the atmospheric pressure surface. For example, the upper layer is the cloud amount at an altitude where the atmospheric pressure is 300 hPa to 400 hPa, the middle layer is the cloud amount at an altitude where the atmospheric pressure is 500 hPa to 750 hPa, and the lower layer is the cloud amount at an altitude where the atmospheric pressure is 850 hPa to 925 hPa.

<Insolation data table>
The solar radiation amount data table 530 includes the observation value of the solar radiation amount acquired by the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 from the weather information providing device 200, and the sunny solar radiation amount calculated by the sunny solar radiation amount calculating unit 101 to be described later. It is a table stored in association with each other.

  The solar radiation amount data table 530 is shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 6, in the solar radiation amount data table 530 of the present embodiment, the fine weather solar radiation amount calculated by the fine weather solar radiation amount calculation unit 101 is stored in the “fine weather solar radiation amount” column, and the weather information providing device An observed value of the amount of solar radiation acquired from 200 is stored in the “actual value” column. FIG. 6 shows the value of the amount of solar radiation at 9:00 am every day.

=== Flow of processing ===
Next, the flow of processing executed by the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to the flowcharts shown in FIGS.

  First, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 accepts input of information specifying the date and position for obtaining the predicted value of the solar radiation amount (S1000). These values are input by an operator or the like from an input device 170 such as a keyboard.

  The information that specifies the date and time for obtaining the predicted value includes, for example, information that specifies the date and time. In addition, the information specifying the position for obtaining the predicted value includes at least information specifying the latitude and longitude, and may include information specifying the altitude. Alternatively, it may be specified by a city name or a region name.

  Next, the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 calculates the solar radiation amount in fine weather (S1010). More specifically, the clear sky solar radiation amount is calculated by the clear sky solar radiation amount calculation unit 101 shown in FIG. The sunny day solar radiation amount calculation unit 101 is realized by the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 executing the solar radiation amount calculation program 400.

  The amount of solar radiation in fine weather is determined by the position of the sun as seen from the observation point, and is the amount of solar radiation that is not affected by weather conditions such as the weather. The amount of solar radiation during fine weather is calculated from a predetermined calculation formula that takes into account the latitude and longitude of the observation point, date and time, atmospheric transmittance, scattering, and the like.

  In the present embodiment, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 calculates the horizontal solar radiation amount (H0) outside the atmosphere at the specified date and time using the following calculation formulas (1) to (6), and this atmospheric The amount of solar radiation on the horizontal surface is calculated as the amount of solar radiation in fine weather.

  The solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 obtains, for example, the solar radiation amount in fine weather for the past 30 days from the designated date and time. The solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 stores the calculated sunny solar radiation amount in the “sunny solar radiation amount” column of the solar radiation data table 530 in association with the date / time information.

H ₀ = I ₀ × sin h (1)
sin h = sin (δ) × sin (φ) + cos (δ) × cos (φ) × cos (ω) (2)
(However, when sin h <0, sin h = 0)
δ = 360 / 2π × (0.006918−0.399912 × cosχ + 0.070257 × sinχ−0.006758 × cos2χ + 0.000908 × sin2χ) (3)
χ = (n−1) × 360/365 (4)
ω = 15 × (JST + λ / 15−9 + ET−12) (5)
ET = (0.0172 + 0.4281 × cos (χ) −7.3515 × sin (χ) −3.3495 × cos (2χ) −9.3619 × sin (2χ)) / 60 (6)

Where H ₀ : Solar radiation level (W / m ² ), I ₀ : Solar constant (1366 W / m ² ), h: Solar altitude (rad), δ: Declination (rad), χ: Coefficient, n : Day of the year with New Year's Day as 1, φ: Latitude (rad), ω: Hour angle (rad), JST: Japan Standard Time (h), λ: Longitude (rad), ET: Time difference (h) is there.

  Strictly speaking, the amount of solar radiation at a specified point needs to be calculated in consideration of the atmospheric transmittance and the effects of atmospheric scattering. However, since the value of the atmospheric horizontal solar radiation amount H0 obtained by the formulas (1) to (6) does not cause a large numerical difference as compared to the strictly calculated sunny solar radiation amount, in this embodiment, As shown in the above formula, the horizontal solar radiation amount is calculated as the sunny solar radiation amount. Thereby, since the calculation process of the solar radiation amount in fine weather can be simplified, the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 can speed up the calculation process of the solar radiation amount in fine weather.

Next, the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 acquires the cloud amount, humidity, and solar radiation amount for the past predetermined number of days (for example, 30 days) from the weather data table 500 (S1020).
The amount of solar radiation acquired from the weather data table 500 includes the amount of solar radiation stored in the “daytime solar radiation” column and the actual value of the amount of solar radiation stored in the “actual value” column. .

In addition, the cloud amount acquired from the weather data table 500 includes observed values of the cloud amounts of “upper layer”, “middle layer”, and “lower layer”.
Further, the humidity acquired from the weather data table 500 includes an observed value of humidity at each atmospheric pressure surface.

  Next, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 calculates the cloud amount and humidity, the solar radiation amount, based on the sunny day solar radiation amount obtained from the weather data table 500, the solar radiation amount observation value, the cloud amount observation value, and the humidity observation value. , A relational expression (a solar radiation amount prediction model) describing the relation between the two is obtained using a partial least square method (PLS (Partial Least Squares Regression) method) (S1030).

  Then, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 is configured such that the cloud amount of each layer (upper layer, middle layer, lower layer), each atmospheric pressure surface (1000 hPa, 925 hPa, 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 600 hPa, 500 hPa, The following matrix Xd (Formula 7) is generated from the humidity at 400 hPa and 300 hPa) and the amount of solar radiation in fine weather (outdoor atmospheric horizontal solar radiation amount).

  This matrix Xd is a matrix of n rows × N columns. Also, the subscript “i” corresponds to “day”, and i−1 is one day before i day. These data may be normalized by subtracting the vertical average value from each value so that the average becomes 0 in the vertical column, and further dividing by the standard deviation of the vertical column.

  Moreover, the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 calculates the following matrix yd (Formula 8) from the observed solar radiation amount at the designated point.

  The matrix yd is a matrix of n rows × 1 column. These data may be normalized by subtracting the vertical average value from each value so that the average becomes 0 in the vertical column, and further dividing by the standard deviation of the vertical column.

  Next, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 uses the PLS method to select a column having a strong correlation with other columns or a column having a strong primary dependency (multicollinearity) among the N columns of data constituting Xd. Column) is removed and converted to a matrix of P (≦ N) columns. For example, in the case of P = 1, the relational expression is expressed by the following expressions (9) and (10).

  In this case, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 substitutes the matrix Xd for the matrix X0 and the matrix yd for the matrix y0 as in the following formulas (11) to (16), whereby the coefficient matrix w1, t1, p1 , X1, y1 are calculated.

Note that w1 is a vector of N rows × 1 column. t1 is a vector of n rows × 1 column. p1 is a vector of N rows × 1 column. p1 ^T is a vector of 1 row × N columns. Q1 is a scalar.

  Next, for example, in the case of P = 2, the relational expression is expressed by the following expressions (17) and (18).

  And the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 calculates | requires the coefficient in the case of P = 2 by Formula (19)-(24).

  The solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 can obtain the coefficient in the same way even when P = 3 or more. When P = a is generalized, the following equations (25) to (32) are obtained.

  The solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 increases P (≦ N) in order from P = 1 until an optimum relational expression is obtained.

  When the value of P is smaller than the optimum value, the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation obtained from the relational expression becomes coarse, and the error from the actual measurement value increases. On the other hand, when the value of P is larger than the optimum value, a so-called over-learning state occurs, and the data obtained from the weather data table 500 is more accurately matched. Since it is also suitable for data that is not too much, if the amount of solar radiation is predicted using such an over-learned relational expression, the error from the actually measured value increases.

  Therefore, the value of P is sequentially increased from 1, and the value of P when Equation (33) is minimized is set as the optimum value. Although the following equation is a statistical index called AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion), this embodiment is not limited to the following equation (33), and other statistical indexes such as a degree of freedom adjustment contribution rate are used. A latent variable may be determined.

  FIG. 9 shows the flow of processing when the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 increases P (≦ N) using Formula (33) in order from P = 1 until an optimal relational expression is obtained. This will be described with reference to a flowchart. In FIG. 9, the contents of each process are generalized as P = a (a ≧ 1).

First, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 calculates coefficients Wa, ta, pa, qa, Xa, and ya for a = 1 (that is, P = 1) (S2000, S2010).
Then, using these coefficients, the value of AIC is obtained from equation (33). In addition, the value of AIC calculated | required about the case of P = a is described as AICa.
Since a = 1 at this time, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 proceeds to “No” in S2030 and sets a = 2 (S2050).
The solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 similarly obtains the AIC value (AIC2) according to the equation (33) even when a = 2 (S2010 to S2030). In S2040, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 compares AIC1 and AIC2 (S2040).
If AIC2 <AIC1, since AIC2 has not yet reached the minimum value, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 continues to obtain AIC3.
In the case where AICa ≧ AICa−1, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 proceeds to “No” in S2040, and stores all the coefficients from P = 1 to P = a in the storage device 140 (S2060).

  As described above, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 obtains the equations (25) to (32) when the AICa becomes the minimum value as a relational expression for calculating the solar radiation amount value from the cloud amount and the humidity value.

  The relational expression when using the partial least square method is complicated as described above. However, the relational expression derived using the partial least squares method can be converted into a regression equation format. The relational expression converted into the regression equation format can be expressed by the following equations (34) to (37).

  As a result, it is possible to easily determine how much the cloud amount and humidity affect the solar radiation amount.

  Next, the solar radiation amount calculation apparatus 100 calculates the predicted value of the solar radiation amount on the prediction target day using a relational expression for calculating the solar radiation amount value from the cloud amount and the humidity value obtained as described above ( S1040). For example, in the case of P = 2, the solar radiation amount calculating apparatus 100 calculates the predicted value of the cloud amount of each layer (upper layer, middle layer, lower layer), each atmospheric pressure surface (1000 hPa, 925 hPa, 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 600 hPa, 500 hPa, The predicted value of humidity at 400 hPa and 300 hPa) and the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in fine weather are input to the following formulas (38) to (40) to calculate the amount of solar radiation.

  In addition, when calculating the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation using the relational expressions (38) to (40), since the meteorological data for one day of the prediction target day is used, the matrix X has 1 row × N columns It becomes a matrix, and y, t1, and t2 are scalars.

  Then, the solar radiation amount calculating device 100 outputs the calculated predicted solar radiation amount to the output device 180 such as a display or a printer.

  As described above, the result of calculating the predicted value of the solar radiation amount for each day from July 1 to July 31 of a certain year is shown in FIGS. In addition, since the amount of solar radiation becomes almost 0 at the time of rain, it cannot be evaluated in%. Therefore, the evaluation index is MJ (megajoule) / m2.

  Fig. 10 shows the relationship between solar radiation and meteorological data using the partial least squares method (PLS method) using meteorological data for the past month, and predicts the amount of solar radiation obtained using the relational equation. Indicates the value ("PLS" field). Also, for comparison, find the relational expression between solar radiation and meteorological data using the least squares method using meteorological data for the past month, and describe the predicted value of solar radiation obtained using the relational expression. ("Regression formula" column).

  FIG. 11 shows a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation obtained by using a relational expression between the solar radiation amount and the weather data by using the partial least square method (PLS method) using the weather data for the past three months. ("PLS" column). Also, for comparison, find the relational expression between solar radiation and meteorological data using the least squares method using meteorological data for the past month, and describe the predicted value of solar radiation obtained using the relational expression. ("Regression formula" column).

  As shown in FIG. 10 and FIG. 11, the predicted value of the solar radiation amount calculated by the relational expression obtained using the PLS method is well suited to the actual measurement value.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 12, it calculated with the relational expression (regression formula) calculated | required using the least squares method with the difference | error of the predicted value and actual value of the solar radiation amount calculated with the relational expression calculated | required using PLS method. The error between the predicted value of solar radiation and the actual measurement is calculated by comparing the average value for each month, and when the relational expression is obtained using the learning data for 3 months, the regression equation is When using the PLS method, the error is almost the same, but when the relational expression is obtained using the learning data for one month, the regression equation is better when the PLS method is used. The error is smaller than the case of using and shows good results.

  As described above, the solar radiation amount calculating device, the control method of the solar radiation amount calculating device, and the program according to the present embodiment have been described. However, according to the present embodiment, the solar radiation amount can be calculated even when the correlated weather data is used. The predicted value can be calculated appropriately.

  For example, when obtaining a relational expression representing the relationship between a predetermined type of weather data and the amount of solar radiation, when using weather data having a relatively high correlation with each other, such as each cloud amount of the upper layer, middle layer, lower layer, etc. It is also possible to obtain a relational expression that can calculate the amount of solar radiation with high accuracy from these meteorological data.

  The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described above, but these are examples for explaining the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments. The present invention can be implemented in various other forms.

  For example, in the above-described embodiment, the case where the relational expression between the cloud cover, the humidity, and the solar radiation amount is obtained has been described. However, the relational expression between the cloud cover and the solar radiation amount and the relational expression between the humidity and the solar radiation amount are described as follows. It is also possible to calculate the predicted value of the solar radiation amount.

100 solar radiation amount calculation device 101 sunny weather solar radiation amount calculation unit 102 solar radiation amount calculation unit 110 CPU
120 Memory 130 Communication I / F
140 Storage device 150 Input I / F
160 Output I / F
170 input device 180 output device 190 recording medium reading device 200 weather information providing device 300 network 400 solar radiation amount calculation program 500 weather data table 510 humidity data table 520 cloud amount data table 530 solar radiation amount data table 1000 solar radiation amount calculation system

Claims (6)

A solar radiation amount calculating device that calculates a predicted value of solar radiation amount based on a relational expression representing a relationship between predetermined types of weather data and solar radiation amount,
Meteorological data table that stores observation values of the predetermined type of weather data, observation values of the solar radiation amount, and sunny solar radiation amount determined by the position of the sun as seen from the observation point in association with information indicating the observation date and time When,
Based on the observed value of the predetermined type of meteorological data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the sunny solar radiation amount in the past predetermined period stored in the weather data table, A relational expression that calculates a relational expression representing a value relationship using a partial least square method;
An information input unit for receiving information specifying a date and time for calculating a predicted value of solar radiation;
A predicted value for calculating a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the specified date and time based on the forecast value of the predetermined type of weather data at the specified date and time, the amount of solar radiation in fine weather, and the relational expression A calculation unit;
A predicted value output unit for outputting a predicted value of the solar radiation amount;
A solar radiation amount calculating device comprising: The solar radiation amount calculating device according to claim 1,
The solar radiation amount calculation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined type of weather data includes a cloud amount at an altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is a first atmospheric pressure and a cloud amount at an altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is a second atmospheric pressure different from the first atmospheric pressure. The solar radiation amount calculating device according to claim 1 or 2,
The solar radiation amount calculation device according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined type of weather data includes humidity at an altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is the third atmospheric pressure and humidity at an altitude at which the atmospheric pressure is a fourth atmospheric pressure different from the third atmospheric pressure. It is a solar radiation amount calculation apparatus in any one of Claims 1-3,
The solar radiation amount calculating apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the solar radiation amount in the fine weather is an atmospheric horizontal solar radiation amount. A control method for a solar radiation amount calculating device that calculates a predicted value of solar radiation amount based on a relational expression representing a relationship between predetermined types of weather data and solar radiation amount,
The solar radiation amount calculating device corresponds to the observation value of the predetermined type of meteorological data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the sunny solar radiation amount obtained from the position of the sun as seen from the observation point, with information indicating the observation date and time. And store it in the weather data table,
The solar radiation amount calculating device stores the observed value of the predetermined type of meteorological data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the sunny solar radiation amount in the past predetermined period stored in the weather data table, Based on the above, a relational expression representing the relationship between these values is calculated using a partial least squares method,
The solar radiation amount calculating device accepts information specifying a date and time for calculating a predicted value of solar radiation amount,
The solar radiation amount calculation device calculates the solar radiation amount at the designated date and time based on the forecast value of the predetermined type of weather data at the designated date and time, the solar radiation amount during the fine weather, and the relational expression. Calculate the predicted value,
The solar radiation amount calculating device outputs a predicted value of the solar radiation amount,
A method of controlling a solar radiation amount calculating device. Based on a relational expression representing the relationship between a predetermined type of weather data and the amount of solar radiation, a computer that realizes a solar radiation amount calculating device that calculates a predicted value of solar radiation amount,
The observed value of the predetermined type of weather data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the sunny solar radiation amount obtained from the position of the sun as seen from the observation point are stored in the weather data table in association with the information indicating the observation date and time. And the steps to
Based on the observed value of the predetermined type of meteorological data, the observed value of the solar radiation amount, and the sunny solar radiation amount in the past predetermined period stored in the weather data table, A procedure for calculating a relational expression representing a value relationship using a partial least squares method;
A procedure for receiving information for specifying a date and time for calculating a predicted value of solar radiation;
Calculating a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the designated date and time based on the forecast value of the predetermined type of weather data at the designated date and time, the amount of solar radiation in fine weather, and the relational expression; ,
A procedure for outputting a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation;
A program for running

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