JP2009072807A - Method and device for controlling planar shape of rolled stock and method of manufacturing thick steel plate - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and device for controlling a planar shape of a rolled stock by which an excellent planar shape can be obtained by obtaining an accurate model which is nearly coincident by performing simple adjustment to change in operating condition without loading burden that the adjustment of an enormous correction table is performed manually. <P>SOLUTION: This method is provided with: a planar shape calculating means for calculating the model estimated value of the planar shape after rolling; a similar data selecting means for selecting a similar past actual result data from an actual result data base in which past actual result data are accumulated; a calculating means of the planar shape compensation for determining the amount of planar shape compensation by using the error and similarity between the model estimated value of the model of the planar shape of the selected past actual result data and the actual value of a shape meter; a planar shape compensating means for compensating the model estimated value of the planar shape of a new rolled stock by a compensation value of the plane shape and a controlled variable calculating means for calculating the controlled variable by performing planar shape controlling calculation. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a planar shape control method in rolling a rolled material, particularly a thick steel plate, and a manufacturing method using the same.

  Generally, the thick steel plate rolling process is composed of three phases. In other words, an adjustment rolling phase in which the thickness of the slab is maintained or the thickness adjustment is performed in order to maintain the accuracy of the slab, and the rolling out phase in which the rolling direction is rotated 90 degrees on a flat surface to obtain a predetermined product width. Thus, there are three finish rolling phases for obtaining a predetermined product thickness (see the upper side of FIG. 10).

  Here, various methods of planar shape control called DBR (Dog Bone Rolling) have been proposed so far in order to reduce the loss of the non-rectangular part (crop loss, width profile loss) in the final rolled material after finish rolling. ing.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 10, the roll shape of the rolling roll in the rolling longitudinal direction is changed to the final pass of the adjustment rolling and the final pass of the tenter rolling in anticipation of the planar shape after completion of rolling (adjustment DBR Further, planar shape control has been proposed in which a material is made close to a rectangle by applying a plate thickness distribution to the width (DBR) (Patent Document 1 to Patent Document 3).

  Further, Patent Document 4 proposes a planar shape control method that measures the planar shape after rolling and measures the planar shape after rolling and changes the amount of reduction correction after the next material as means for actually measuring the planar shape and reflecting it in the control. .

Further, Patent Document 5 and Patent Document 6 propose a planar shape control method that measures a planar shape immediately before completion of the tentering and calculates a reduction correction amount of the final tenter rolling.
JP-A 52-57061 JP-A-53-123358 JP 2005-14055 A JP 62-28014 A JP 2004-283840 A JP 2004-358492 A

  However, all of the planar shape control methods proposed in the above-mentioned Patent Documents 1 to 6 have a model that predicts the planar shape and determines the control amount using these models. Therefore, there is a problem that the planar shape control performance depends on the prediction accuracy of the model used.

  The model is derived from experiments and actual rolling, but in order to make it a model that can withstand not only specific rolling conditions but also global rolling conditions, it has parameters in the model as a huge table of rolling conditions. There is a need for adjustment, and it is necessary to have a similar huge table for correcting the control amount. Furthermore, there is a problem that it takes time and effort to adjust the model for maintaining accuracy with respect to operational changes.

  The present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and does not apply a load that manually adjusts a huge correction table, so that a highly accurate model that matches in the global region can be used against changes in operating conditions, etc. Another object of the present invention is to provide a planar shape control method and a planar shape control device for a rolled material, which can be obtained by simple adjustment and can obtain a good planar shape.

  The invention according to claim 1 of the present invention estimates the planar shape of the rolled material after rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, attaches a plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape, and makes the planar shape of the rolled material rectangular. In the planar shape control method, the planar shape calculation step for calculating a model estimated value of the planar shape after rolling by the planar shape control calculation for a newly rolled material, and the rolling of the rolled material previously rolled in the past The past and similar rolling material to the rolled material to be newly rolled from the past and past data including the errors between the specifications and the model estimated value of the planar shape after completion of rolling and the shape meter actual value A similar data selection step for selecting actual data, and a plane using the error and similarity between the model estimated value and the shape meter actual value of the planar shape after completion of the rolling of the selected past actual data. A plane shape correction amount calculating step for obtaining a shape correction amount, a plane shape correction step for correcting a model estimated value of the planar shape of the rolled material newly rolled with the plane shape correction amount, and the corrected plane shape And a control amount calculation step of calculating a control amount by performing a planar shape control calculation again.

  In the invention according to claim 2 of the present invention, the planar shape of the rolled material after rolling is estimated by using the planar shape estimation model, and the planar shape of the rolled material is rectangular by attaching a plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape. In the plane shape control method approaching to the above, the rolling material newly rolled from the past record database in which past performance data including the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the planar shape actual value after completion of rolling are accumulated. Similar data selection step for selecting past performance data similar to rolling specifications, model parameter identification step for identifying a model parameter for obtaining a planar shape using the selected past performance data and its similarity, and the identification A plane shape calculation step for obtaining a plane shape based on the model parameters obtained, and a control amount calculation step for calculating a control amount by performing a plane shape control calculation on the plane shape. Tsu is a plan shape control method of the rolled material, characterized in that a flop.

  The invention according to claim 3 of the present invention estimates the planar shape of the rolled material after the rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, attaches a plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape, and makes the planar shape of the rolled material rectangular. In the planar shape control device, the planar shape calculation means for calculating the model estimated value of the planar shape after rolling by the planar shape control calculation for the rolled material to be newly rolled, and the rolling of the rolled material previously rolled in the past The past and similar rolling material to the rolled material to be newly rolled from the past and past data including the errors between the specifications and the model estimated value of the planar shape after completion of rolling and the shape meter actual value Similar data selection means for selecting actual data, planar shape correction using errors and similarities between the model estimated value of the planar shape of the selected past actual data after completion of rolling and the actual shape meter actual value The plane shape correction amount calculating means for obtaining the plane shape correction means for correcting the model estimated value of the plane shape of the rolled material newly rolled with the plane shape correction amount, and again with the corrected plane shape, A plane shape control device for a rolled material, comprising: a control amount calculation means for calculating a control amount by performing a planar shape control calculation.

  In the invention according to claim 4 of the present invention, the planar shape of the rolled material after rolling is estimated by a planar shape estimation model, and the planar shape of the rolled material is rectangular by attaching a plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape. In the plane shape control device approaching to, in advance, the rolling material newly rolled from the record database in which past performance data including the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the planar shape record value after the completion of rolling is accumulated. Similar data selection means for selecting past performance data similar to rolling specifications, model parameter identification means for identifying model parameters for obtaining a planar shape using the selected past performance data and its similarity, and the identification A plane shape calculating means for obtaining a plane shape based on the model parameter, and a control amount calculating means for calculating a control amount by performing a plane shape control calculation on the plane shape. Preparative a planar shape control of the rolled material, characterized in.

  The invention according to claim 5 of the present invention is a method for producing a thick steel plate, comprising rolling a thick steel plate by a control amount calculated using the planar shape control method for a rolled material according to claim 1 or 2. It is.

  Since the present invention is configured as described above, there is a change in operating conditions for a highly accurate model that matches globally without applying a load such as manually adjusting a huge correction table. With a simple adjustment, a good planar shape can be obtained.

3A and 3B are diagrams for explaining calculation in the planar shape control of the rolled material (hereinafter referred to as DBR calculation), where FIG. 3A shows the planar shape and FIG. 3B shows the cross-sectional shape. In the DBR calculation, the final planar shape after rolling is estimated, and the DBR amount (for example, H, L _DB , L _{F in} FIG. 3) that minimizes the truncation loss (ΣΔl _i shown in FIG. 3) in the estimated planar shape. ) Is calculated and set as a control amount. Therefore, the final plane shape to be estimated, that is, the plane shape estimation accuracy is important.

First embodiment.
In this embodiment, the estimated value of the final planar shape after rolling in the DBR calculation is based on the error between the planar shape result (measured value) and the planar shape estimated value of the rolled material rolled in the past, that is, the model error. By correcting, the final planar shape is obtained, the DBR amount is calculated, and reflected in the setting.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an apparatus configuration example for realizing the planar shape control method according to the first embodiment of the present invention. A DBR calculation unit 1 that estimates a plane shape based on a plane shape prediction model and performs DBR calculation from the result, a plane shape result (actually measured value) of a rolled material rolled in the past, rolling specifications, a rolling result, a DBR calculation unit DBR amount calculated in Step 1, Plane shape estimated value calculated by the Plane shape estimation model, Result database 2 storing errors between Plane shape results and Plane shape estimated value as case data, DBR calculation unit for newly rolled material For the DBR amount and rolling specification data calculated in step 1, select the rolling material data of the past rolled material and DBR amount that are similar to the rolling material to be newly rolled from the past performance data of the database, and select DBM calculation unit (database type model calculation unit) 3 that calculates an error between the estimated planar shape value of the obtained data and the measured shape, based on the error calculated by the DBM calculation unit Correcting the estimated plane shape estimate in planar shape estimation model Te to obtain the final planar shape flat shape correction unit 4, and a city.

  The DBR calculation unit 1 performs DBR calculation again based on the planar shape corrected by the planar shape correction unit 4 and determines the final DBR amount. Further, in the result database 2, rolling record data, shape record data measured with a plane shape meter, plane shape estimated value, and initial DBR amount are stored for each completion of rolling from the operation management computer 5 managing the production line. It has become so.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a schematic processing flow of the planar shape control method according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
For the rolled material that has been rolled, the rolling specifications, the DBR amount, and the error of the estimated model value of the planar shape after completion of rolling and the shape meter actual value are accumulated in the database (step S1).

  Then, when a newly rolled material is extracted from, for example, a heating furnace (if the calculation time is not limited, it may be performed immediately before rolling or during rolling), the DBR calculation unit estimates the planar shape. Using the model, an estimated value of the final planar shape of the rolled material after rolling is calculated. And the data of the estimated value of the last plane shape are output to a DBM calculation part (step S2).

  Then, the DBM calculation unit searches and selects data similar to the rolling specifications and final plane shape estimated value of the rolled material to be controlled from the data stored in the result database. Here, for the similarity determination, for example, when each data is considered as a vector having each item as an element, the similarity is higher as the distance is closer based on the Euclidean distance between the data in the vector space. (Similar) may be determined. The data may be selected by selecting a predetermined number of data from the closest data or selecting data having a Euclidean distance that is equal to or smaller than a predetermined value. The method is not particularly limited. Then, error data between the measured value of the planar shape and the model estimated value related to the selected data is selected and extracted (step S3).

  Using this selected / extracted error data and its similarity, a model for obtaining the plane shape correction amount is created, and the plane shape correction amount is calculated based on the created model (database model calculation, DataBaseModel calculation: (Referred to as DBM calculation) (step S4).

  Then, the planar shape correction unit corrects the estimated planar shape value calculated in step 2 by the planar shape correction amount obtained in step S4, and determines the corrected final planar shape (step). S5).

  Based on the final planar shape after the correction, the DBR calculation is performed again to obtain the DBR amount, and the value is determined as the final DBR amount (control amount) (step S6).

  FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the planar shape correction amount calculated by DBM calculation and the corrected planar shape corrected thereby (steps S4 and S5 in FIG. 2). In this example, the planar shape correction amount at the planar shape representative points (9 points in the width direction) is schematically shown, and the estimated value (planar shape calculated in step S2) based on the original planar shape estimation model includes By adding the correction amount and obtaining a final planar shape by the planar shape correction unit (corresponding to step S5), it is intended to be a probable estimate.

  Further, FIG. 5 is a diagram showing another DBR calculation based on the corrected planar shape (corresponding to step S6 in FIG. 2). As shown in FIG. 4, the planar shape is corrected with the correction amount calculated by the DBM calculation, and the DBR calculation is performed again based on the planar shape to determine the DBR amount (control amount). The amount of DBR is set and controlled in each rolling process such as adjustment rolling, tentering rolling, and finishing rolling, whereby a rolled material, for example, a thick steel plate is rolled to produce a thick steel plate.

  In step S4, the local model for obtaining the planar shape correction amount by the DBM calculation unit is, for example, a weighted local regression model (described later), and the planar shape correction amount at the representative point may be taken as the objective variable.

Further, as the explanatory variable in the local model in the DBM calculation, a factor related to the model error is used. For example, slab thickness / width / length, finishing thickness / width / length, extraction temperature from heating furnace, rolling finishing temperature, width at plate width, crown at width, width ratio, total ratio The amount of adjustment reduction, the DBR amount of the part corresponding to the representative points before and after (the adjustment DBR amount is the correction amount of the width variation, and the expansion DBR amount is the correction amount of the crop (TOP / BOT))
However, it is preferable to determine which variable to use after evaluating the estimation accuracy by performing a correlation test for each variable during model accuracy verification. Data such as rolling specifications used for these explanatory variables is stored and stored in the results database in association with errors.

[Database type model calculation (DBM calculation)]
The output value prediction calculation method (weighted local regression method) of DBM calculation according to step S4 of the present embodiment will be described below.

(1) Selection of information vector It is assumed that an objective variable (output variable) and its explanatory variable (input variable) are determined in advance and their observation data are given. For example, as shown in FIG. 6, the item name of the output variable is Y, and the item name of the M input variables is Xm (m = 1, 2,..., M). There are N observation data, and the value of the nth (n = 1,2, ..., N) output variable is expressed as y ⁿ and the value of the input variable is expressed as x _m ⁿ .

(2) Definition of distance function (a) An input vector for which a required point output is to be predicted is called a required point. It is expressed as follows. [X ₁ ^r , x ₂ ^r ,..., X _M ^r ] ^T below represents a transposed matrix.
x ^r = [x ₁ ^r , x ₂ ^r , ..., x _M ^r ] ^T
(B) Identification of global regression equation A regression equation model is created using the given N observation data.
The model formula is the following line format.
Y = b + a ₁・ X ₁ + a ₂・ X ₂ + ・ ・ ・ + a _M・ X _M
Parameters: b, a ₁ , a ₂ ,..., A _M are obtained by the method of least squares. The partial regression coefficient vector α = [a ₁ , a ₂ ,..., A _M ] ^T is used to define the distance described below.

(C) Definition of distance function The distance L from the required point x ^r at a point x = [x ₁ , x ₂ ,..., X _M ] ^T in the input space is defined as follows.

The partial regression coefficient can be considered as the contribution of each input variable to the amount of change in the output variable. This is a weighted distance that takes into account its contribution.

(3) Calculation of distance from request point of each observation data
For each of the N observation data, find the distance from the request point. The distance from the required point of the nth (n = 1,2, ..., N) observation data can be obtained from the following equation.
L ⁿ = L (x ⁿ , x ^r , α)
Where x ⁿ = [x ₁ ⁿ , x ₂ ⁿ , ..., x _m ⁿ ] ^T , n = 1,2, ..., N
In addition, the distance ll from the request point of the 1st to Nth observation data is collectively expressed as follows.
ll = [L ¹ , L ² , ..., L ^N ] ^T
(4) Definition of similarity function The similarity W representing the proximity from the request point is defined as follows.
W (L, p, ll) = exp {-(L / (p ・ σ (ll))) ² }
Here, σ (ll) represents the standard deviation of ll.
p is an adjustment parameter (initial value: 1.5).
FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the normalized distance and the similarity. L / (p · σ (ll) in the above equation is defined as a normalized distance q.

(5) Calculation of similarity from the request point of each observation data
For each of the N observation data, the similarity from the request point is obtained. The similarity from the required point of the nth (n = 1,2, ..., N) observation data can be obtained from the following equation.
W ⁿ = W (L ⁿ , p, ll), n = 1,2, ..., N
In addition, the similarity from the request point of the 1st to Nth observation data is collectively expressed as follows.
w = [W ¹ , W ² , ..., W ^N ] ^T
(6) Calculation of local neighborhood regression equation A regression equation model is created using the given N pieces of observation data and the respective similarities w. The model formula is the following line format.
Y = b + a ₁・ X ₁ + a ₂・ X ₂ + ・ ・ ・ + a _M・ X _M
Parameters θ = [b, a ₁ , a ₂ ,..., A _M ] ^T are obtained by a weighted least square method with similarity w as a weight.
Observation data with a high degree of similarity (data close to the request point) has a large weight, and observation data with a low degree of similarity (data far from the request point) has a regression formula so that the weight is small. A regression model that fits these data with higher accuracy can be created.

(7) The calculation of the output predicted value is calculated by giving the value of the request point to the left side of the above local neighborhood regression equation. The model calculation function in this control outputs the parameter θ of the local neighborhood regression equation obtained in the calculation process.

Second Embodiment In the first embodiment, the error of the planar shape estimation model is corrected based on the past results. However, in this embodiment, the model parameter of the planar shape control calculation is identified based on the past results, and the model The shape control amount is obtained by the parameter.

  FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an apparatus configuration example for realizing the planar shape control method according to the second embodiment of the present invention. Based on the planar shape prediction model, the planar shape is estimated, and the DBR calculation unit 1 for performing DBR calculation from the result, the planar shape result (actual value) of the rolled material rolled in the past, rolling specifications, rolling result, DBR calculation Actual database 2 storing data such as estimated plane shape estimated values and model parameters of the planar shape as case data, rolling specifications data for newly rolled material, newly rolled from past performance data in database DBM calculation unit (database type model calculation unit) 3, DBM calculation that selects data of a past material to be rolled similar to the rolling specifications of the rolled material, and calculates a planar shape model parameter from the selected rolled material data A plane shape calculation unit 6 for obtaining a plane shape based on the model parameter of the plane shape calculated by the unit.

  Further, in the results database 2, rolling performance data from the operation management computer 5 managing the production line, shape results data measured with a plane shape meter, plane shape estimation values, and plane shape model parameters are stored each time rolling is completed. It has come to be remembered.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a schematic processing flow of the planar shape control method according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

  First, after completion of rolling, the planar shape is calculated, and the calculated model parameters are stored and stored in advance in the database together with the rolling specifications, rolling record data, and planar shape record (step S11). Since the crop amount and width variant data is a linear combination of model parameters, this coefficient is stored and saved in the database as an actual value.

  Then, the rolling specifications of the rolled material that is the calculation target of the control amount are input from the operation management computer, and the specifications are compared with the rolling specifications of the past performance data stored in the database. The selected data is searched and selected (step S12). Here, the similar determination may be the same as in step S3 of the first embodiment. For example, when each data is considered as a vector having each item as an element, the Euclidean distance between the data in the vector space. Based on the above, the closer the distance, the higher the degree of similarity (similarity) may be determined.

  The data may be selected by selecting a predetermined number of data from the closest data or selecting data having a Euclidean distance that is equal to or smaller than a predetermined value. The method is not particularly limited. Then, a planar shape model parameter related to the selected data is extracted.

  Using the actual data of the extracted similar rolled material, the planar shape model parameters (a, b, The optimum value of c, d) is calculated (step S13).

Then, a planar shape is obtained from the planar shape parameters (step S14), and a DBR amount (control amount) is calculated from the planar shape (step S15).
The amount of DBR is set and controlled in each rolling process such as adjustment rolling, tentering rolling, and finishing rolling, whereby a rolled material, for example, a thick steel plate is rolled to produce a thick steel plate.

[Calculation of planar shape model parameters]
The procedure for calculating the model parameter of the planar shape used in this embodiment is as follows.
When the plate thickness is changed and raised at both ends in the longitudinal direction of the rolling, the planar shape profile after rolling is a deformation that occurs when a rectangular steel plate is rolled, and a deformation that occurs due to the thickness change amount applied to both ends. Will be superimposed.

  The planar shape prediction model for predicting the shape in such a case includes a flat rolled crop generation model for obtaining an end crop generated when a rectangular thick steel plate is rolled, a flat rolled width profile generation model for obtaining a width profile, and There are a DB (Dog Bone) additional crop generation model and a DB (Dog Bone) additional width variant generation model for predicting a planar shape when rolling the plate thickness raised portion, and these are used in appropriate combination.

  In addition, there are a strict model method for predicting a planar shape profile for each pass using a flat rolling crop generation model and a flat rolling width profile generation model, and a simple model formula for determining the final crop length using the rolling ratio of each rolling process. Yes, select as appropriate (see Patent Document 6).

  Here, a strict model method for predicting a planar shape profile for each pass using a flat rolling crop generation model and a flat rolling width profile generation model will be described below.

[Flat rolling width profile generation model]

dWi: i-pass profile generation, R: roll radius, H _i-1 : thickness before rolling, r: rolling reduction, b: model parameters
[Flat rolling crop generation model formula]

dli: i-th pass crop generation amount, R: roll radius, H _i-1 : plate thickness before rolling, r: rolling reduction, a: model parameter
[DB additional crop generation model formula]

L ₁ : Generated crop length, H ₃ : Incoming plate thickness, H ₂ : DB section average plate thickness, H _out : Outlet plate thickness
S ₁ : Cross-sectional area of DB-free part, S ₂ : Cross-sectional area of DB part, c, d: Model parameters Consists of flat rolling width profile generation model (1) and flat rolling crop generation model (2) The flat shape profile is predicted for each pass from the flat rolling model, and the flat shape profile when rolling the DB section is predicted from the DB additional crop generation model and DB additional width deformed generation model, and these are combined for final rolling. Predict the later planar shape profile.

The steel plate is divided into N parts in the width direction and the longitudinal direction, and the parameters a and b in the expressions (1) and (2) are made a function of the xy coordinates at the dividing point j to express a planar profile. For example, the crop length (lij) at the j-division point after the adjusted rolling i pass can be expressed by the following equation.

Here, a = f ₁ (y).
l _{i, j} : Crop length of dividing point j after i pass, H _i : i pass lead side plate thickness,
r: Rolling ratio, R: Roll radius By superimposing the plane shape change by each pass rolling, it is possible to express a crop / width irregular shape at an arbitrary dividing point after the final rolling.

It is a figure which shows the apparatus structural example for implement | achieving the planar shape control method which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the schematic processing flow of the planar shape control method which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the calculation in planar shape control. . It is a figure which shows the planar shape correction amount computed by DBM calculation. It is a figure which shows DBR calculation again by the planar shape after correction | amendment. It is a figure which shows an input / output variable and observation data. It is a figure which shows the normalization distance and similarity. It is a figure which shows the apparatus structural example for implement | achieving the planar shape control method which concerns on the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the general | schematic process flow of the planar shape control method which concerns on the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the conventional DBR control.

Explanation of symbols

1 DBR calculation part 2 Results database 3 DBM calculation part (database model calculation part)
4 Plane shape correction amount calculation unit 5 Operation management computer 6 Plane shape calculation unit

Claims (5)

In the planar shape control method for estimating the planar shape of the rolled material after rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, and attaching the plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape to bring the planar shape of the rolled material closer to a rectangle,
A plane shape calculation step for calculating a model estimated value of a planar shape after rolling by a planar shape control calculation for a newly rolled material,
From the performance database in which past performance data including errors between the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the model estimated value of the planar shape after rolling and the shape meter actual value are accumulated,
A similar data selection step in which rolling specifications select past performance data similar to a newly rolled material,
A plane shape correction amount calculating step for obtaining a plane shape correction amount by using an error between the model estimated value and the shape meter actual value of the planar shape after completion of the rolling of the selected past result data, and its similarity,
A plane shape correction step for correcting a model estimated value of the plane shape of the rolled material to be newly rolled with the plane shape correction amount;
A method for controlling the planar shape of a rolled material, comprising a control amount calculating step of calculating a control amount by performing a planar shape control calculation again with the corrected planar shape. In the planar shape control method for estimating the planar shape of the rolled material after rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, and attaching the plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape to bring the planar shape of the rolled material closer to a rectangle,
Past performance similar to rolling specifications of a rolled material newly rolled from a performance database in which past performance data including the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the flat shape actual value after rolling has been accumulated in advance. A similar data selection step for selecting data,
A model parameter identifying step for identifying a model parameter for obtaining a planar shape using the selected past performance data and its similarity;
A plane shape calculating step for obtaining a plane shape based on the identified model parameter;
And a control amount calculation step of calculating a control amount by performing a planar shape control calculation on the planar shape. In the planar shape control device that estimates the planar shape of the rolled material after the end of rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, attaches the plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape, and approximates the planar shape of the rolled material to a rectangle.
Plane shape calculation means for calculating a model estimated value of a planar shape after rolling by a planar shape control calculation for a rolled material to be newly rolled,
From the performance database in which past performance data including errors between the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the model estimated value of the planar shape after the completion of rolling and the shape meter actual values are accumulated, the rolling specifications are Similar data selection means for selecting past performance data similar to the newly rolled material,
Plane shape correction amount calculating means for obtaining a plane shape correction value by using an error between the model estimated value of the planar shape after completion of rolling and the shape meter actual value of the selected past result data, and its similarity,
Plane shape correcting means for correcting the model estimated value of the planar shape of the rolled material to be newly rolled with the planar shape correction amount;
A plane shape control device for a rolled material, comprising: a control amount calculation means for calculating a control amount by performing a plane shape control calculation again with the corrected plane shape. In the planar shape control device that estimates the planar shape of the rolled material after the end of rolling by using the planar shape estimation model, attaches the plate thickness distribution based on the planar shape, and approximates the planar shape of the rolled material to a rectangle.
Past performance similar to rolling specifications of a rolled material newly rolled from a performance database in which past performance data including the rolling specifications of the rolled material rolled in the past and the flat shape actual value after rolling has been accumulated in advance. Similar data selection means for selecting data,
A model parameter identifying means for identifying a model parameter for obtaining a planar shape using the selected past performance data and its similarity;
Plane shape calculating means for obtaining a plane shape based on the identified model parameter;
A plane shape control device for a rolled material, comprising: a control amount calculation means for calculating a control amount by performing a plane shape control calculation on the plane shape. A method for producing a thick steel plate, comprising rolling the thick steel plate by a control amount calculated using the planar shape control method for a rolled material according to any one of claims 1 and 2.

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