JP2005128945A - Device for evaluating plan to develop and sell product - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a device for evaluating plans to develop and sell products that is useful in verifying an evaluation value for a plan to develop and sell a product, at the stage of planning prior to the execution of the plan. <P>SOLUTION: The device comprises an evaluation calculation means 5 for calculating an evaluation value for a plan to develop and sell a product on the basis of product development plan data, product sales plan data, predicted sales number data showing a prediction of sales number of the product over time, and development investment data showing development investments that vary over time; and an evaluation value output means HS for outputting the evaluation value calculated by the evaluation value calculation means 5. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a product development and sales plan evaluation device used for evaluating a product development and sales plan for developing and selling a product.

  The product development and sales plan for developing and selling products is based on the start of production / sales for the target product and the scale of the planned period from the start of production / sales to the end. Product sales plan data that defines the planned number of units to produce and sell products, and product development plan data that defines the scale of development investment such as development man-hours, prototype costs, and capital investment when developing products Will be determined. Then, based on such product sales plan data and product development plan data, in order to start production and sales in accordance with the sales start time, from which point to start development, to what scale development man-hours Plan for development investment, such as when to develop products, prototype production and production equipment at what scale, and the schedule from the start of production and sales to the end of sales A sales plan such as what unit sales will be made within the period will be determined.

  By the way, in the case of a passenger car as an example of a product, as a product development and sales plan as described above, not only when a new product is newly developed, but also a model change that significantly improves the product. In some cases, it is planned as a product development plan. Thus, there may be a plurality of such product development and sales plans for one product. Further, when a company that sells products produces and sells not only one product but also a plurality of products, a product development and sales plan is defined for the plurality of products.

  Conventionally, when executing a product development and sales plan as described above, the support device supports the execution.

  As the above-mentioned support device, after shifting the product development and sales plan from the planning stage to the execution stage, the development man-hours planned in the planning stage are corrected and output based on the progress of actual development. (For example, refer to Patent Document 1). In other words, at the stage where the product development and sales plan is put into practice, the product development and sales plan is modified so that the development man-hours, which are examples of development investment data planned at the planning stage, are corrected based on the actual development progress. Can be modified.

JP 2000-39904 A

  By the way, with regard to the product development and sales plan, at the planning stage before implementing it, what value the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan, such as product sales, marginal profit, return on invested capital, contribution profit, etc. It is necessary to verify whether it will be, but it takes a lot of trouble if the administrator tries to verify the evaluation value by hand calculation, especially after the evaluation value once, When iteratively obtaining the evaluation value again for correction of the evaluation, a very large amount of labor is required.

  The present invention provides an evaluation device for a product development and sales plan useful for verifying what value an evaluation value for the product development and sales plan will be in the planning stage before executing the product development and sales plan. Is to provide

  The first characteristic configuration of the product development and sales plan evaluation device according to the present invention includes product development plan data, product sales plan data, sales unit prediction data indicating a prediction of unit sales over time, and time passage. Evaluation value calculation means for obtaining an evaluation value for a product development and sales plan based on development investment data indicating development investment that varies with the evaluation investment, and evaluation value output means for outputting the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculation means It is in the point comprised with.

  According to the first characteristic configuration, the product sales plan data, the product development plan data, the sales unit prediction data indicating the unit sales forecast over time of the product, and the time passage Based on the development investment data indicating the development investment that changes along with this, an evaluation value for the product development and sales plan is obtained and the obtained evaluation value is output. The product sales plan data means the production / sales start time when production / sales of the target product is started and the scale of production of the product within the scheduled period from the start of production / sales to the end. The product development plan data is data indicating the scale of development investment such as development man-hours, prototype costs, equipment investment, etc. when developing a product. The evaluation values for the product development and sales plan include product sales, marginal profit, return on invested capital, contribution profit, etc. In short, objective and comprehensive when the product development and sales plan is executed. This is a quantification of the evaluation that is judged.

  In other words, in the planning stage before executing the product development and sales plan, the evaluation value when the product development and sales plan is executed by obtaining and outputting the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan based on each data as described above. You can see immediately what will happen. In addition, if it is necessary to correct the product development plan data or product sales plan data based on the evaluation value output as described above, if the data is re-input with the corrected content, the evaluation value calculation means The evaluation value for the product development and sales plan is obtained in a state corresponding to the corrected content, and the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan is output by the evaluation value output means.

  Therefore, we provide a product development and sales plan evaluation device that is useful when verifying what value the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan will be in the planning stage before executing the product development and sales plan. I was able to do it.

  According to a second characteristic configuration of the present invention, in addition to the first characteristic configuration, the evaluation value includes at least one of sales of a product, marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit.

  According to the second characteristic configuration, at least one of the sales amount, marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit of the product is obtained and output as the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan. All of these evaluation values are important items for securing profits as a company, and an evaluation that is judged when a product development and sales plan is executed by outputting one of these pieces of information. Can be shown in a numerical state.

  The third feature configuration of the present invention includes, in addition to the first feature configuration or the second feature configuration, sales unit calculation means for obtaining the sales unit prediction data, and the sales unit calculation unit accompanies the time lapse of the product. The basic forecast data that is the basis of the number of units sold is obtained, and the unit sales forecast data is obtained in a state in which the basic forecast data is taken into consideration based on the fluctuation factors of sales.

  According to the third characteristic configuration, the sales volume calculation means obtains basic prediction data that is a basis of the sales volume with the lapse of time of the product, and includes a change based on a sales fluctuation factor in the basic prediction data. The sales unit prediction data indicating the prediction of the unit sales over time of the product is obtained. As the basic prediction data, for example, the ratio change data representing the change in the number of units sold over time in the product as a ratio, and the unit ratio variation data set in advance as a standard variation transition pattern, and the product sales plan One created based on the planned number of units set in the data. In addition, there are those that are created by averaging past sales results for products similar to the target product.

  When a product is developed and sold, the general trend is that the number of units sold will increase with the passage of time, but the number of units sold will decrease with the passage of time. It is done. Therefore, such a variation transition pattern or the like can be determined as a standard one based on the past sales record of similar products.

  Further, the fluctuations based on the sales fluctuation factors include fluctuations in the number of sales based on sales start predictions of competing products competing with the products, and fluctuations in the number of sales based on minor changes in the products. In other words, when a product is developed and sold, for example, if a competitor product that competes with the product in the market may be started in the period close to the sales start time of the product, the product is sold. The situation may be affected and unit sales may decrease. In addition, if a minor change is made, such as making some improvements to the product itself, this may affect the sales status of the product and increase the number of units sold.

  Therefore, we are looking for sales unit forecast data that shows the forecast of unit sales over time, in response to such fluctuations based on sales fluctuation factors. Therefore, it is possible to accurately predict the sales volume prediction data corresponding to the above, and to obtain the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan as accurately as possible based on such sales volume prediction data.

  According to a fourth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the third feature configuration, the unit sales calculation means represents a change in the number of units sold over time in the product as a ratio, and a standard fluctuation transition in advance. The basic prediction data is obtained on the basis of the number ratio fluctuation data set as a pattern and the planned number set in the product sales plan data.

  According to the fourth characteristic configuration, the basic prediction data is obtained based on the number ratio fluctuation data and the planned number. The unit ratio fluctuation data is a pattern representation of how the sales volume of a product changes while changing. In other words, the number of products sold does not always reach a certain level after the product is first sold, but decreases with the passage of time. It has been empirically known from the past many sales results that it will decay, and based on such an empirical rule, it was created in advance as a standard pattern that expressed the change in sales volume as a ratio Is. The planned number indicates the scale of production of products within the scheduled period from the start to the end of production and sales. Specifically, the sales per unit period. This is expressed by the number of units, for example, the number of units sold per month, and is the number of units that is the basis of the sales plan for the product.

  Then, the sales unit calculation means calculates the ratio of the change in the sales unit with respect to the passage of time indicated by the unit ratio fluctuation data, and the sales unit with respect to the passage of time from the planned unit set as the sales unit for each unit period. We will seek change. That is, when the ratio that changes with the passage of time is multiplied by the planned number, the number of sales that changes with the passage of time can be obtained.

  Accordingly, since the sales unit prediction data is obtained using the unit ratio fluctuation data created in advance as a standard pattern, the sales unit prediction data can be obtained by a simple process, and the configuration of the sales unit calculation unit is simplified. You can do it with things.

  According to a fifth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the third feature configuration or the fourth feature configuration, the sales volume calculation means determines the time when the sales of a competitive product competing with the product are predicted to start. As a fluctuation factor, the sales unit prediction data is obtained in consideration of a change in the unit sales accompanying the sale of the competitive product.

  According to the fifth characteristic configuration described above, the sales are calculated in consideration of fluctuations in the number of sales accompanying the sales of competing products, with the time when sales of competing products competing with the product are expected to be started as a factor of sales fluctuation. The number prediction data will be obtained. This is because the sales volume of the product may decrease when the competitive product is started compared to the case where the competitive product is not sold. By responding to such a change in the sales volume based on the sales start prediction of the competitive product, it is possible to predict the sales volume prediction data for the product with high accuracy.

  The sixth characteristic configuration of the present invention is that, in addition to the fifth characteristic configuration, the competitor product includes a competitor product of its own company and a competitor product of another company.

  According to the sixth feature configuration described above, the competitor product includes the competitor product of the company and the competitor product of the other company. Therefore, by taking into account not only the competitor product of the other company but also the competitor product of the company, actual product sales Sales unit forecast data can be obtained in a state corresponding to the situation.

  According to a seventh feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any one of the third feature configuration to the sixth feature configuration, the sales volume calculation means uses the time when the product is minor changed as the sales fluctuation factor, and the minor change is performed. This is because the sales volume prediction data is obtained in consideration of the change in the sales volume due to the performance.

  According to the seventh characteristic configuration described above, the sales forecast data is obtained in a state in which the change in the number of sales accompanying the minor change is taken into account, with the time when the minor change of the product is performed as a sales fluctuation factor. Not only changes in the sales volume of the product due to the existence of competitor products, but also when minor changes such as partial improvements are made to the product itself, compared to when such minor changes are not made. This is because the number of products sold may fluctuate. Therefore, it is possible to obtain the sales volume prediction data in a state corresponding to the actual sales situation of the product by considering not only the competitive product but also the influence of the minor change of the product.

  In an eighth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any one of the third feature configuration to the seventh feature configuration, the sales volume calculation means is a setting that is set according to the sales fluctuation factor for the basic forecast data Multiply the ratio to obtain correction data indicating the number of sales units that fluctuate due to the sales fluctuation factor, and calculate the sales forecast data by correcting the basic prediction data with the correction data. It is in the point.

  According to the eighth characteristic configuration, the basic prediction data is multiplied by a setting ratio set in accordance with the sales fluctuation factor to obtain correction data indicating the number of sales units fluctuating due to the sales fluctuation factor. The basic forecast data is corrected by increasing / decreasing the correction data, and the sales volume forecast data is obtained.

  The degree of influence in the case where the sales volume of a product fluctuates due to the above-described sales fluctuation factors can be set as data of a ratio to the basic prediction data by predicting to some extent from past sales performance. For example, the impact of competing products can be predicted to some extent from the past sales performance in the market of the product and competitor products, and the impact of minor changes can also be predicted from past sales performance, etc. .

  Therefore, as a change in the number of sales due to sales fluctuation factors, data for correction is obtained by multiplying the basic forecast data by a preset ratio, and the basic forecast data is corrected by the correction data to increase or decrease the sales forecast. It asks for data. In this way, by multiplying the basic forecast data by a preset ratio, the correction data for the increase / decrease correction is obtained, so that the process for obtaining the sales volume forecast data can be simplified, so that sales The configuration of the number calculation means can be simplified.

  The ninth feature configuration of the present invention is provided with development investment calculation means for obtaining the development investment data in addition to any of the first feature configuration to the eighth feature configuration. The development investment data is obtained by using the investment amount and the trial production cost as the development investment, and at least one of the development man-hours, the equipment investment amount, and the trial production cost The development investment ratio fluctuation data representing the change in development investment with respect to the passage of time as a ratio and set in advance as a standard fluctuation transition pattern, and the product development plan data The development investment data is determined based on the total investment amount of the development investment.

  The development investment ratio fluctuation data in the ninth feature configuration represents, as a ratio, the change in the development investment with respect to the passage of time for at least one of the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost. And is set in advance as a standard variation transition pattern. In other words, development investments such as development man-hours, capital investment, and prototype costs do not occur uniformly, but occur in different states over time. As in the case, it is empirically known from many past achievements what kind of transition is followed, and it is created in advance as a standard pattern based on such empirical rules. It is a thing. The total investment amount of development investment is the total investment amount required when developing the product, and is set in advance in the product sales plan data.

  The development investment calculation means obtains the development investment data by using the development man-hour, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost as the development investment, and at least one of the development man-hour, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost. Development that shows development investment that changes over time from the ratio of change in development investment to the passage of time indicated by the development investment ratio fluctuation data and the total investment amount of development investment for one development investment You will be asked for investment data.

  In other words, since the development of the product is completed when the product starts to be sold, development investment is required between the start of product development and the start of product sales. In addition, since the period during which development investment occurs is limited, it can be obtained as the development investment that changes with the passage of time from the ratio that changes with the passage of time and the total investment amount.

  Therefore, since development investment data is obtained using development investment ratio fluctuation data created in advance as a standard pattern, development investment data can be obtained by simple processing, and the configuration of the development investment calculation means is simple. You can do it.

  According to a tenth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any one of the first feature configuration to the ninth feature configuration, the evaluation value calculation means may be configured to store the product development plan data and the product sales plan data for each of a plurality of products. , Based on the sales volume prediction data and the development investment data, the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan for each product is determined, and the evaluation value output means is the evaluation value calculation means The change state with the passage of time of the obtained evaluation value is image-displayed as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products in a state where each of the plurality of products is identifiable. is there.

  According to the tenth feature configuration, the evaluation value calculation means obtains an evaluation value for the product development and sales plan based on each data as described above for each of a plurality of products. Then, the evaluation value output means displays an image as an integration result obtained by integrating the plurality of products in a state in which the change state of the evaluation value with the passage of time is identifiable for each of the plurality of products. . In other words, since the change state of the evaluation value with the passage of time is classified in an identifiable manner for each product, and the image is displayed as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products. By visual inspection, it is possible to easily and quickly confirm not only the evaluation value for each of a plurality of products but also the overall evaluation value including a plurality of products.

  Therefore, it is possible to easily check what evaluation values can be obtained for the entire company that sells multiple products, and the product has been accumulated for multiple products in a state where each product can be identified. Since an image is displayed as an integration result, it can be visually confirmed at what rate each product contributes.

  According to an eleventh feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the tenth feature configuration, the evaluation value output means includes a plurality of change states with the passage of time of the sales volume prediction data obtained by the sales volume calculation means. Each of the products is in a state that can be identified for each product, and is configured to display an image as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products.

  According to the eleventh feature configuration, the change state with the passage of time of the sales volume prediction data obtained by the sales volume calculation means can be identified for each product for each of a plurality of products, and Images are displayed as integration results obtained by integrating a plurality of products. That is, since the change state with the passage of time of the sales volume prediction data is displayed in a state that is categorized so as to be identifiable for each product, by visually observing the contents of the image display, The unit sales forecast data can be easily and quickly confirmed, and the change in the unit sales forecast data over time is displayed as an integration result for multiple products. By visually observing the display contents, the sales volume prediction data as a whole including a plurality of products can be easily and quickly confirmed.

  Therefore, it is possible to easily check what unit sales can be sold as a whole company that sells multiple products, and to calculate the total for multiple products in a state where each product is identifiable. Since the image is displayed as the integrated result, it is possible to visually confirm what proportion of the sales of each product is in the whole.

  According to a twelfth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the tenth feature configuration or the eleventh feature configuration, the evaluation value output means changes with the passage of time of the development investment data obtained by the development investment calculation means. The state is configured such that each state of the plurality of products is identifiable for each product, and the image is displayed as an integration result obtained by integrating the plurality of products.

  According to the twelfth feature configuration, the change state of the development investment data obtained by the development investment calculation means with the passage of time is identifiable for each product for each of the plurality of products, and a plurality An image is displayed as an integration result obtained by integrating the products. In other words, since the development status of development investment data over time is displayed in a state that can be identified for each product, the development of each of a plurality of products can be performed by viewing the image display contents. Investment data can be easily and quickly confirmed, and the change state of development investment data over time is displayed as an integrated result of integrating multiple products. By visually observing, development investment data including a plurality of products as a whole can be easily and quickly confirmed.

  Therefore, it is possible to easily confirm what kind of development investment is required for the entire company that sells multiple products. In addition, it is an integrated total of multiple products in a state where each product is identifiable. Since the image is displayed as a result, it is possible to visually confirm at what rate each product requires development investment.

  According to a thirteenth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to the twelfth feature configuration, the evaluation value output means integrates a change state of the evaluation value with the lapse of time for a plurality of products, and the unit sales prediction data The integration results obtained by accumulating the change state with the passage of time for a plurality of products and the integration results obtained by accumulating the change state with the passage of time for the development investment data for the plurality of products are displayed in a list on the same screen. It is configured to be switchable between a state and a state in which an image is individually displayed for each data.

  According to the thirteenth feature configuration, when switching to a state in which each of the accumulated results as described above is displayed as a list, the evaluation process can be efficiently performed by obtaining and displaying a plurality of data at once. Can do. In addition, when the state is switched to the state in which the image is displayed individually, the individual data of the plurality of integration results can be confirmed in detail by viewing the image display content. Thus, the work can be efficiently performed by switching the display state according to the work content.

  According to a fourteenth feature configuration of the present invention, in addition to any of the tenth feature configuration to the thirteenth feature configuration, the evaluation value output means is the product development plan data for a specified product among a plurality of products. And the product sales plan data is displayed as an image.

  According to the fourteenth feature configuration, since the product development plan data and the product sales plan data for a specified product among each of a plurality of products are displayed as images, for example, for each product Specifying one of a plurality of products in the case where it is determined whether the product development plan data or the product sales plan data needs to be corrected when the evaluation value for the product development sales plan is confirmed. The product development plan data and product sales plan data can be displayed efficiently for the finished product, and the data can also be displayed when the product development plan data and product sales plan data are modified. By doing so, the correction work and the confirmation work can be performed efficiently.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a product development and sales plan evaluation apparatus according to the present invention. This product development and sales plan evaluation device is configured using a computer, and is a device used when obtaining an evaluation value for the product development and sales plan when developing and producing a product. The product is assumed to be a passenger car.

  In the case of a passenger car as an example, a description will be added. As a product development and sales plan with different product development times and scales, not only a single product is newly developed, but also a predetermined time has elapsed since the new development. There are cases where a model change is made to make significant improvements to the product at the time. Therefore, there are a plurality of such product development and sales plans for one product.

  In addition, as a whole company that sells products, there are a plurality of products as described above. By managing the product development and sales plan as described above for these products, for example, development is possible. In order to avoid disadvantages that overlap with the same period and the time of prototype production and capital investment overlap, the development investment temporarily becomes excessive, or the development man-hours are not able to be handled by the current development personnel, It is necessary to coordinate so that a plurality of product development and sales plans can be properly executed as a whole company.

  Therefore, in order to enable such adjustment, a product plan indicating how the product development and sales plan is scheduled to be performed with time for a plurality of products is created. FIG. 5 shows an example of a product plan. The "new product" described in this product plan is the time to develop and start selling a new product, the "full improvement" is the time to make a model change, and the "partial improvement" is the time to make a minor change Show. “×” indicates the production end time. From this product plan, for example, when a new product development and sales plan for developing a new product or changing a model is newly formulated, a rough plan can be made as to when it is to be performed. When such a product development and sales plan is newly formulated, for example, as described in the budget frame W in FIG. 5, the model name of the product, the target product The number of units that will be used for production and sales, the number of units that will be produced in the planned period from the start to the end of production and sales Product sales plan data consisting of information indicating the scale of development, such as whether it is a model change, and the scale of development investment with respect to the total amount of development investment such as development man-hours, prototype costs, equipment investment, etc. The product development plan data shown will be created. A plurality of the scheduled periods are prepared according to the difference in development scale, and are set as appropriate according to the designated development scale.

  The product development and sales plan evaluation device, for example, when planning a product development and sales plan for one product, when the product development and sales plan is put into practice, what kind of sales is present and what Development investment is required, and as a result, the marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit can be evaluated in advance at the planning stage.

  When the explanation is added, the evaluation device changes as the product development plan data and the product sales plan data as described above, the sales unit prediction data indicating the prediction of the sales unit with the passage of time of the product, and the passage of time. An evaluation value for the product development and sales plan is obtained based on development investment data indicating development investment, and the evaluation value is output.

  More specifically, this evaluation apparatus includes a sales unit calculation unit 1 as a sales unit calculation unit for obtaining sales unit prediction data of a product, a development investment calculation unit 2 as a development investment calculation unit for obtaining development investment data for a product, and will be described later. Pattern data storage unit 3 for storing the patterned data used for obtaining the sales volume forecast data and the development investment data, the plan data storage unit 4 for storing the product development plan data and the product sales plan data, the product An evaluation value calculation unit 5 as an evaluation value calculation means for obtaining an evaluation value for the development sales plan, a calculated data storage unit 6 for storing various calculated data, an image display unit 7 for displaying various types of data, and an image display thereof A data management unit 8 for processing data to display an image in the unit 7, a data input unit 9 for inputting various data, an image It is configured to include a command unit 10 such as a mouse or the like for giving an instruction such as switching the state.

  The plan data storage unit 4 stores in the plan data storage unit 4 the product development plan data and the product sales plan data that are created in the department that planned the product development and sales plan and input from the data input unit 9. At this time, the data is input from the data input unit 9. The data input unit 9 may be manually input using a keyboard, but may be input via a storage medium such as a floppy disk. Or may be input through a communication line.

Next, the sales volume calculation unit 1 will be described.
The sales volume calculation unit 1 obtains basic prediction data indicating a standard transition of the sales volume with the passage of time of the product, and the sales are calculated in a state where the fluctuation based on the sales fluctuation factor is added to the basic prediction data. It is comprised so that unit prediction data may be calculated | required. Explaining the configuration for obtaining the basic forecast data, the unit ratio variation data representing the change in the number of units sold over time in the product as a ratio and set in advance as a standard variation transition pattern, and the The basic prediction data is obtained based on the planned number set in the product sales plan data.

  In other words, the pattern data storage unit 3 stores the number ratio variation data as shown in FIG. As described above, this unit ratio fluctuation data represents the change in the number of units sold over time in the product to be evaluated as a ratio, and is set in advance as a standard fluctuation transition pattern. It is. For example, based on the sales results of the past 10 years, it is predicted in advance about how the sales volume will change after starting sales of products, and the change in sales volume is expressed as a ratio as a standard pattern It is set.

  A plurality of different change transition patterns (for example, L1, L2, etc. in FIG. 2) are set and stored in accordance with the model of the target product. A change corresponding to the product to be evaluated is selected from the change transition patterns, and a basic change transition pattern is initially set. By multiplying the ratio that changes with the passage of time indicated by the variation transition pattern selected in this way and the planned number, the number of sales that change with the passage of time can be obtained. The data is set as basic prediction data.

  Then, the sales unit calculation unit 1 uses the time when the sales of the competing product competing with the product are expected to be started as the sales fluctuation factor, in consideration of the fluctuation of the sales unit accompanying the sales of the competing product. It is comprised so that the said sales volume prediction data may be calculated | required. In addition, as said competitive goods, the competitive goods of an own company and the competitive goods of another company are included. Further, the unit sales calculation unit 1 uses the time when a minor change of the product is performed as the factor of sales fluctuation, so as to obtain the unit sales forecast data in consideration of the change in the unit sales accompanying the minor change. It is configured. In addition, the sales volume calculation unit 1 uses the set ratio set according to the sales fluctuation factor to the basic forecast data of the competitive product to be sold, and shows the fluctuation quantity of the sales volume due to the sales fluctuation factor. Data is obtained, and the basic forecast data for the product is corrected by increasing / decreasing the correction data to obtain the sales volume forecast data.

  More specifically, the degree of influence of a competitor product that is assumed to have an influence on the sale of the product is set in advance as a setting ratio with respect to the basic prediction data based on the past sales record. Similarly, the degree of the influence on the change in the number of sales based on the minor change of the product is preset as a set ratio with respect to the basic prediction data based on the past sales record. Then, correction data obtained by multiplying the basic prediction data of the competitive product to be sold by a preset ratio is obtained, and the basic prediction data for the product is corrected by increasing / decreasing with the correction data. It is the structure which calculates | requires number prediction data.

  In the following, based on a specific example, basic prediction data about a product is shown by a line L3 in FIG. 2 (B), and the company's competing product has started to be sold at the timing indicated by the symbol A in FIG. This indicates that the competitor's competitor's product has started to be sold at the timing indicated by the symbol B in the figure, and a minor change is made to partially improve the product at the timing indicated by the symbol C in the figure. It is shown that. FIG. 2B shows that sales are increased by performing a model change, which is a significant improvement of this product, at the timing indicated by the symbol D.

  The line L4 in FIG. 2 (c) shows the final sales volume forecast data in a state where the fluctuation due to the sales fluctuation factors is taken into account. The area Sa in FIG. 2 (b) shows the correction data obtained by multiplying the basic forecast data of the company's competitor products by the sales resulting from the start of sales of the company's competitor products. Sb indicates correction data that decreases by a set ratio with respect to the basic forecast data corresponding to competitors of other companies, and the area Sc is for correction to increase sales at a set ratio with respect to the basic forecast data for minor changes due to minor changes Data are shown. In this way, the basic forecast data indicated by the line L3 is corrected by increasing / decreasing the correction data indicating the fluctuation due to the sales fluctuation factor to obtain the final sales volume forecast data as shown in FIG. It can be done. The sales volume prediction data is stored in the calculation data storage unit 6 in a state associated with the product.

Next, the configuration of the development investment calculation unit 2 will be described.
The development investment calculation unit 2 represents the change in the development investment with respect to the passage of time as a ratio with respect to the development investment of the development man-hour, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost, and as a standard fluctuation transition pattern in advance. The development investment data is obtained based on the development investment ratio fluctuation data set and the total investment amount of the development investment set in the product development plan data.

  In other words, the pattern data storage unit 3 stores development investment ratio fluctuation data as shown in FIGS. 3A, 3B and 3C in advance. As described above, the development investment ratio fluctuation data represents a change in development investment with respect to the passage of time in the product to be evaluated as a ratio, and is set in advance as a standard fluctuation transition pattern. Is. For example, how development investment changes and changes based on past results is expressed as a ratio and set as a standard pattern.

  If explanation is added, FIG. 3 (a) represents the change of the capital investment with the passage of time as a ratio. Regarding this capital investment, changes with time can be represented by almost the same pattern regardless of the product. FIG. 3 (b) shows the change in the cost of trial production over time as a ratio. For the trial cost, a plurality of patterns are prepared according to the difference in products (two types are illustrated in FIG. 3). FIG. 3C shows the change in the development man-hours over time as a ratio. Similarly, a plurality of patterns are prepared for the development man-hours according to the difference in the products (four types are illustrated in FIG. 3).

Then, the development investment calculation unit 2 selects the one corresponding to the product to be evaluated with respect to each of the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost as described above, and initializes the basic variation transition pattern. The total investment amount for each of the ratio that changes with the passage of time indicated by the variation transition pattern selected in this way, the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost set in the product development plan data Based on the above, development investment data that changes with the passage of time for each of the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the trial production cost is obtained.
Note that the development investment data that changes over time for each of the development man-hours, capital investment, and prototype costs is the same as the diagram shown in FIG. To do. These development investment data are managed by the data management unit 8 and stored in the calculation data storage unit 6 in a state associated with the product.

  In addition, since the development of the product is completed when the product is started to be sold, the development investment is the product from the start of the product development, as is apparent from the description in FIG. Since the period during which development investment is incurred is limited, the ratio of the investment and the total investment amount that change with the passage of time It can be sought as development investment that changes accordingly.

  The evaluation value calculation unit 5 includes product development plan data and product sales plan data stored in the plan data storage unit 4, sales unit prediction data calculated by the unit sales calculation unit 1, and the development investment Based on the development investment data calculated by the calculation unit 2, the evaluation value for the product development and sales plan is obtained. As evaluation values for the product development and sales plan, each of the product sales, marginal profit, return on invested capital (ROI), and contribution profit is obtained.

  That is, the evaluation value calculation unit 5 calculates the sales per vehicle set in the product sales plan data and the sales unit prediction data calculated by the unit sales calculation unit 1 for the product to be evaluated. Based on this, sales forecast data indicating a forecast of sales of the entire product over time is obtained. Similarly, based on the marginal profit per vehicle set in the product sales plan data and the unit sales forecast data calculated by the unit sales calculation unit 1, the entire product over time It is the structure which calculates | requires marginal profit prediction data which shows prediction of marginal profit.

  Further, the evaluation value calculation unit 5 obtains the total marginal profit obtained within the scheduled period from the start to the end of production / sales of the product based on the marginal profit prediction data, and the marginal profit The ratio of the total amount of investment and the total amount of development investment (the total of development man-hours, capital investment, and total cost of prototypes), that is, the return on invested capital (ROI), which is the ratio of profits to invested capital It is comprised so that it may obtain | require by calculation. Further, the amount obtained by subtracting the total amount of development investment from the total marginal profit, that is, the contribution profit to the company by the product is obtained together. And the various data calculated | required in this way are memorize | stored in the calculation data storage part 6 in the state matched with the goods.

  In addition, the evaluation value calculation unit 5 is configured to perform processing for obtaining each of the sales forecast data, marginal profit forecast data, return on invested capital, and contribution profit as described above for each of a plurality of products. The various data obtained for each of the products are also stored in the calculated data storage unit 6 in association with the products.

The data management unit 8 displays the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculation unit 5, specifically, the change state of the product sales and marginal profit over time for each of a plurality of products. The image display unit 7 is configured to display the accumulated result obtained by accumulating a plurality of commodities in a state in which each item is identifiable. In addition, the data management unit 8 is capable of identifying the change state of the sales unit prediction data obtained by the unit sales calculation unit 1 with the passage of time for each of a plurality of products, The image display unit 7 is configured to display an image as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products. Further, the data management unit 8 is capable of identifying the change state of the development investment data obtained by the development investment calculation unit 2 with the passage of time for each of a plurality of products, and The image display unit 7 is configured to display an image as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products.
Therefore, the data management unit 8 and the image display unit 7 constitute an evaluation value output unit HS that outputs the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculation unit 5.

  Then, the data management unit 8 integrates a result of integrating the change state with the passage of time of the evaluation value for a plurality of products, and an integration of integrating the change state with the passage of time of the sales volume prediction data for the plurality of products. As a result, a state where each of the accumulated results obtained by accumulating the change state of the development investment data with time for a plurality of products is displayed as a list on the same screen, and a state where an image is individually displayed for each data. It is configured to be freely switchable.

  Further, the data management unit 8 is configured to cause the image display unit 7 to display the product development plan data and the product sales plan data for a specified product among each of a plurality of products. 8 is configured to display on the image display unit 7 a product plan in which the development timing of the development and sales plan data for a plurality of products is displayed on a horizontal line in time series.

Hereinafter, a specific data processing configuration for image display of the data management unit 8 will be described.
FIG. 4 shows a product plan + all graph display as an initial screen when the evaluation apparatus is activated. In this screen, the product plan is shown on the upper side of the screen, and the integration result (graph) obtained by integrating each data as described later is shown on the lower side of the screen. FIG. 5 shows a state in which the product plan is displayed in an enlarged manner, and FIG. 6 shows a state in which all graphs for the integration results are displayed as a list.

  If the explanation is added, the data management unit 8 can identify the change state of the sales of the product over time as a line graph for each of the plurality of products, for example, by color coding for each product. The image display unit 7 is configured to display an image as an accumulation result obtained by accumulating and accumulating a plurality of products in a divided state. Similarly, with regard to marginal profit, the state of change over time is shown as a line graph for each of a plurality of products, and each product is classified in such a way that it can be identified by, for example, color coding. An image is displayed on the image display unit 7 as an accumulation result obtained by adding and accumulating.

  In addition, the change of the sales unit prediction data obtained by the sales unit calculation unit 1 over time, and the development man-hours, prototype costs, and capital investment as development investment data obtained by the development investment calculation unit 2 Similarly, as shown in the line graph for each of a plurality of products, for example, the image display unit 7 accumulates and integrates a plurality of products in a state where each product is identifiable by color coding, for example. An image is displayed.

  When the instruction switching position is designated by the command unit 10 such as a mouse from the list display state shown in FIG. 4, only the data can be enlarged and displayed. For example, when a product plan column is designated, the product plan is enlarged and displayed as shown in FIG. Then, in the display state of the product plan, when an area corresponding to a specific product is specified among the plurality of products displayed in the image, as shown in the figure, the specified product among each of the plurality of products The budget frame W indicating the product development plan data and the product sales plan data is displayed as an image. In this way, the description content can be corrected while the budget frame W is displayed. For example, when the opening time corresponding to the production / sales start time in the figure is changed, the changed content is reflected on the product plan, and the display state of the product plan is corrected. By the way, “new product” described in the product plan is the time when new product is developed and launched, “full improvement” is when model changes are made, and “partial improvement” is when minor changes are made. Each shows. “×” indicates the production end time.

  Next, when all graph display is instructed, as shown in FIG. 6, a plurality of line graphs for each product as described above are provided for each of development man-hours, prototype costs, capital investment, sales volume, sales, and marginal profit. A graph as an accumulation result obtained by integrating each of the products is displayed as a list on the same screen.

Then, when an individual graph display is instructed, first, as shown in FIG. 7, data on the development man-hour is individually displayed in an enlarged state on the image. At that time, if other data, for example, trial production cost, equipment investment, etc., is commanded, the corresponding individual data is displayed.
When an area corresponding to a specific product is designated from among a plurality of products displayed as images for individual display such as development man-hours, the budget frame W as described above is displayed as an image. The description of the budget frame W can be corrected as in the case of product planning. For example, if the total amount of development man-hours is changed, the changed content is reflected in the image display of the development man-hours. Each of sales, marginal profit, prototype cost, and sales volume can be switched to the individual display state by commanding individual display, but in the case of product planning and development man-hours The explanation is omitted because it is the same as.

  In this way, the development man-hours, prototype costs, capital investment, sales volume, sales, marginal profit, etc., are shown as line graphs for each of the products, and each product is classified so that it can be identified by, for example, color coding Since the image display unit 7 is configured to display an image as an integration result obtained by accumulating and accumulating a plurality of products in a state, the user of the apparatus may exceed the allowable limit depending on the display state, for example. Sales plans, such as verifying that there are no inconveniences in developing products such as that the cost generation status overlaps with one period of time, and that fluctuations in sales become too large over time It is possible to quickly verify whether there is the above inconvenience.

  The data management unit 8 determines the value of the return on invested capital (ROI) and the contribution profit for each of a plurality of products among the evaluation values obtained by the evaluation value calculation unit 5. The image display unit 7 displays a list so that it can be quickly and visually determined how each product contributes to the company.

  In other words, as shown in FIG. 8, the return on invested capital is shown on the vertical axis so that the higher the return is on the upper side, and the contribution profit is shown on the horizontal axis so that the return on the right is larger. The return on invested capital and the return on contributions are simultaneously displayed by dot display. That is, the return on invested capital and the contribution profit for one product are displayed by one point display. From this figure, for example, the closer to the right side of the figure and the higher the position (for example, X1 in FIG. 8), the greater the contribution profit to the company and the higher the return on invested capital. Is large. Conversely, as illustrated by X2 in the figure, the closer to the left side and the lower side, the smaller the contribution. In addition, what is illustrated by X3 in the figure indicates that the contribution capital is large but the invested capital increases. In this way, it is possible to evaluate the product development and sales plan.

  FIG. 9 shows a schematic processing procedure including switching of the display state in this evaluation apparatus. When this evaluation device is activated, the above-mentioned unit sales calculation unit 1, development investment calculation unit 2 and evaluation value calculation unit 5 are used to estimate the change of each data over time and to calculate the accumulation result as described above. 4 to display the initial screen (product plan + all graph display) as shown in FIG. 4, and to switch the display state to individual graph display or all graph display or to display a budget frame based on the command information, respectively. When the process of switching the display state of the display unit 7 is performed and the process is ended, if correction is performed, the various data after correction is stored in the calculated data storage unit 6 and the process ends.

  The user of the device can evaluate how the product to be evaluated contributes among multiple products based on the various display data as described above. Thus, it is possible to perform rough rough estimation.

[Another embodiment]
Hereinafter, other embodiments are listed.

(1) In the above embodiment, the total amount of marginal profit obtained by the evaluation value calculation unit as the previous evaluation value calculation means for each of a plurality of products within a scheduled period from the start of production and sales to the end The ratio between the total marginal profit and the total development investment (the total of development man-hours, capital investment, and trial production costs), that is, the investment that is the ratio of the profit obtained to the invested capital Although the configuration is such that the return on capital (ROI) is obtained by calculation, the following configuration may be used instead of such a configuration.

  Based on the marginal profit forecast data obtained for each of multiple products, the total marginal profit obtained within the accounting period (for example, one year) is calculated as a summary of all the multiple products. The ratio between the total marginal profit and the total development investment (the total number of man-hours for development, capital investment, and prototype costs for one year), that is, the ratio of profits obtained to invested capital. A certain return on invested capital (ROI) may be calculated.

(2) In the said embodiment, the evaluation value calculation part as the said evaluation value calculation means illustrated what calculates all the sales of goods, marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit as said evaluation value However, instead of calculating all of them, it is only necessary to calculate at least one of sales of products, marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit.

(3) In the above-described embodiment, the sales volume calculation means calculates the sales volume associated with the sales of the competing product using the time when the sales of the competing product competing with the product are expected to start as the sales fluctuation factor. When calculating the unit sales forecast data with fluctuations taken into account, the competitors include their competitors and competitors from other companies, but only the competitors from other companies or their competitors May be included. Moreover, it is good also as a structure which does not consider the fluctuation | variation of the number of sales based on the sales start prediction of such a competitive product.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, the sales unit calculation means uses the time when the product is subjected to a minor change as the sales fluctuation factor, and takes into account the change in the sales unit due to the minor change. Although the configuration is such that the prediction data is obtained, a configuration that does not consider the change in the number of units sold based on such a minor change may be used.

(5) In the above-described embodiment, the sales volume calculation means represents the change in the sales volume with respect to the passage of time in the product as a ratio, and the volume ratio change data set in advance as a standard change transition pattern In addition, the basic forecast data is obtained based on the planned number of units set in the product sales plan data, but instead of such a configuration, past information on products similar to the target product is obtained. Data indicating sales performance may be calculated and averaged to obtain the basic prediction data, or an administrator may input the basic prediction data manually while predicting the basic prediction data.

(6) In the above embodiment, the development investment calculation means represents, as a ratio, the change in the development investment with respect to the passage of time for at least one of the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost. Further, the development investment data is obtained based on the development investment ratio fluctuation data set in advance as a standard fluctuation transition pattern and the total investment amount of the development investment set in the product development plan data. However, instead of such a configuration, it is possible to calculate development investment data by calculating and averaging data indicating past results for products similar to the target product. The administrator may input the development investment data manually while predicting the development investment data.

(7) In the above embodiment, the sales unit calculation unit for obtaining the sales unit prediction data and the development investment calculation unit for obtaining the development investment data are provided. However, the unit sales prediction data and the development investment data are obtained. Rather, for example, the administrator manually creates the forecast data for the number of units and development investment data, or inputs and uses the forecast data for the number of units and development investment data created in advance using another arithmetic unit. Also good.

(8) In the above-described embodiment, the evaluation value output means integrates the change state of the evaluation value with the passage of time for a plurality of products, and the change state with the passage of time of the sales unit prediction data. Accumulation results accumulated for a plurality of products, each of the integration results obtained by accumulating a plurality of products for the state of change over time of the development investment data on a single screen, and for each data for each Although an example of a configuration that can be switched to an individual image display state has been illustrated, instead of such a configuration, the above-described integration results are always displayed in an individual state, or the same screen is always displayed. It can be implemented in various forms such as a configuration in which a list is displayed above.

(9) In the above embodiment, the evaluation value output unit can identify the change state of the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculation unit over time for each of a plurality of products. Although it is configured to display an image as an integration result obtained by integrating a plurality of products in a state divided into two, it is not limited to such a configuration, and only a change state with the passage of time of an evaluation value for one product is displayed as an image. It may be something to do.

Block diagram of evaluation device for product development and sales plan Data showing changes in unit sales over time Data showing changes in development investment over time Diagram showing image display status Diagram showing image display status Diagram showing image display status Diagram showing image display status Diagram showing image display status Explanatory drawing showing processing procedure

Explanation of symbols

1 Sales unit calculation means 2 Development investment calculation means 5 Evaluation value calculation means HS Evaluation value output means

Claims (14)

Product development sales based on product development plan data, product sales plan data, sales unit forecast data showing the forecast of unit sales over time, and development investment data showing development investment that changes over time An evaluation value calculating means for obtaining an evaluation value for the plan;
An evaluation apparatus for a product development and sales plan, comprising: evaluation value output means for outputting the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculation means.   The evaluation apparatus for a product development and sales plan according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation value includes at least one of sales of the product, marginal profit, return on invested capital, and contribution profit. Sales unit calculation means for obtaining the sales unit prediction data is provided,
This sales unit calculation means
It is configured to obtain basic forecast data that shows the standard transition of unit sales over time of the product, and to calculate the unit sales forecast data with the basic forecast data taking into account fluctuations based on sales fluctuation factors The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 1 or 2. The sales unit calculating means is:
A unit ratio change data that represents the change in the number of units sold over time in the product as a ratio and is set in advance as a standard change pattern, and a plan set in the product sales plan data The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 3, wherein the basic prediction data is obtained based on the number of units.   The sales unit calculation means uses the time when the sales of a competitive product competing with the product are expected to be started as the sales fluctuation factor, and takes into account the change in the sales volume accompanying the sales of the competitive product. 5. The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 3, wherein the product development and sales plan is configured to obtain number prediction data.   The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 5, wherein the competitor product includes a competitor product of a company and a competitor product of another company.   The sales volume calculation means is configured to obtain the sales volume prediction data in a state in which a time when the product is subjected to a minor change is used as the sales fluctuation factor and a change in the sales volume accompanying the minor change is taken into account. The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to any one of claims 3 to 6. The sales unit calculating means is:
Multiplying the basic forecast data by a set ratio set according to the sales fluctuation factor to obtain correction data indicating the number of sales units that fluctuate due to the sales fluctuation factor; and
The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to any one of claims 3 to 7, wherein the basic prediction data is corrected by increasing or decreasing the correction data to obtain the sales volume prediction data. . Development investment calculation means for obtaining the development investment data is provided,
This development investment calculation means
It is configured to obtain the development investment data with the development man-hour, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost as the development investment, and
For the development investment of at least any one of the development man-hours, the capital investment amount, and the prototype cost, the change in the development investment with respect to the passage of time is expressed as a ratio, and the standard fluctuation transition in advance 2. The development investment data is obtained based on development investment ratio fluctuation data set as a pattern and a total investment amount of the development investment set in the product development plan data. The evaluation apparatus of the product development sales plan of any one of -8. The evaluation value calculating means is
For each of a plurality of products, an evaluation value for the product development and sales plan for each product is obtained based on the product development plan data, the product sales plan data, the sales volume forecast data, and the development investment data. Composed of
The evaluation value output means,
An image as an integration result obtained by integrating the plurality of products in a state in which the state of change of the evaluation value obtained by the evaluation value calculating unit with the passage of time is classified for each product for each of the plurality of products. The evaluation apparatus for a product development / sales plan according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation apparatus is configured to display. The evaluation value output means,
The integrated state obtained by accumulating the plurality of products in a state where the change state with the passage of time of the sales unit prediction data obtained by the sales unit calculation means can be identified for each of the plurality of products. The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 10, which is configured to display an image as a result. The evaluation value output means,
The change result of the development investment data obtained by the development investment calculation means with the passage of time is in an identifiable state for each product for each of a plurality of products, and an integration result obtained by integrating the plurality of products. The apparatus for evaluating a product development / sales plan according to claim 10 or 11, wherein the evaluation apparatus is configured to display an image as. The evaluation value output means,
Integration result obtained by integrating the change state of the evaluation value with the passage of time for a plurality of products, integration result of integration of the change state with the passage of time of the sales volume prediction data for a plurality of products, time of the development investment data Each of the accumulated results obtained by accumulating the change states associated with the progress of a plurality of products can be switched between a state where a list is displayed on the same screen and a state where each data is individually displayed as an image. The product development and sales plan evaluation device according to claim 12. The evaluation value output means,
The product according to any one of claims 10 to 13, wherein the product development plan data and the product sales plan data for a specified product among a plurality of products are displayed as images. Development and sales plan evaluation device.

Images