JP6436584B2 - Arrangement method selection system, arrangement method selection method and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an arrangement method selection system, an arrangement method selection method, and a program.

  In the past, efforts have been made to minimize inventory quantities by making demand forecasts, planning production plans, and the like. In such efforts, the arrangement method is usually fixed. The ordering method refers to an ordering method for products, for example, in which an ordering point is determined for each product, and when the inventory quantity reaches the ordering point, the product is ordered. On the other hand, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses an inventory management system setting system capable of selecting an optimal arrangement system and parameters (for example, inventory quantity as an ordering point) for each combination of distribution bases and products. ing.

JP 2003-104553 A

  However, the arrangement method set by the method as described above has not been analyzed sufficiently for each arrangement method and the parameters in the arrangement method. It was not always the case. For example, there are cases where the selection of the arrangement method is qualitative because the cost of inventory management is unknown. In addition, there is a possibility that an excessive inventory may be caused by an improper arrangement method or a shortage may occur. However, it is difficult to grasp the risks and to consider an appropriate arrangement method. In addition, there are problems such as the fact that it takes time to analyze the results of the parameters that are the key in the selection of the arrangement method and the selection of the arrangement method.

  Accordingly, an object of the present invention is to provide an arrangement method selection system, an arrangement method selection method, and a program that can solve the above-described problems.

According to the first aspect of the present invention, the arrangement method selection system includes at least one of a periodic quantitative method, an irregular quantitative method, a periodic irregular amount method, and an irregular irregular amount method when arranging goods. a candidate arrangements system comprising: a setting information acquisition unit for acquiring the configuration information of the parameters relating to the arrangements system, based on the quantity ordered acquired the article as calculated on the basis of the setting information, of the article by the arrangements scheme and simulation execution unit for simulating stock quantity, and the cost calculation unit that calculates a total cost of inventory management of the article in the simulation, based on the total cost of the cost calculation unit has calculated, to the total cost to a minimum and a arrangement method determination section for determining the arrangement method and the parameters, the simulation execution unit, the past hand Based on the arrangement lead time for each article analyzed from the actual information and the customer request lead time for each article analyzed from the actual information on the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past, the customer required lead time is determined as the arrangement The article longer than the lead time may be excluded from the inventory quantity simulation target .
By doing in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the order quantity when goods are ordered by various arrangement methods, and to simulate the inventory quantity. Furthermore, each ordering method can also be simulated while changing the ordering method parameters. In addition, the total cost for inventory management can be calculated for each simulation. Further, it is possible to obtain a specific value of the parameter relating to the arrangement when the total cost is minimized while sufficiently examining the parameter relating to the arrangement.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, parameters relating to the arrangement method in the arrangement scheme selection system, Purchase Order cycle, service rate, a number of order lots, the arrangement method determination unit may include one of the parameters If one or more are predetermined values, other parameter values that minimize the total cost may be selected.
Parameters related to arrange method (Purchase Order cycle, service rate, the order number of lots), even if there is a limitation on the value of some of the parameters of the, in its constraints, concrete of other parameters that the total cost to a minimum The value can be determined.

According to a third aspect of the present invention, the arrangement method determination unit, when the arrangement method is regular quantitative method or periodically variable amounts scheme, containing the values of the ordering cycles the total cost to minimize the A combination of parameters related to arrangement may be determined.
When the ordering method is determined to be regular fixed amount or periodic fixed amount, an order cycle that minimizes the total cost can be obtained.

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, the arrangement method determination unit may determine a combination of the said order lot number of parameters relating to the arrangements including the value of the total cost to minimize.
Regardless of the arrangement method, the number of order lots that minimizes the total cost can be obtained.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, the arrangement method determination section, when said arrangement method is defined in a predetermined manner, said arrangement of the total cost, including the value of the service rate which minimizes A combination of parameters may be determined.
When the arrangement method is determined to be a certain method, the service rate that minimizes the total cost can be obtained.

According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, the cost calculation unit, as the total cost of the inventory management of the article, the cost of the storage and discard of the article, the cost of the arrangements of the article, the shortage You may calculate the total cost including the cost concerned.
By doing so, it is possible to calculate a comprehensive total cost in consideration of various expenses required when the article is kept in stock.

According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, the cost calculation unit uses the storage cost as a, the inventory cost as b, the warehouse cost as c, the disposal risk as d, as the elements used for calculating the total cost. Loss is e, disposal cost is f, unit price is g, interest rate is h, volume is i, quantity is α, labor cost for arranging goods is l, transportation cost is m, customs cost is n, inspection labor cost is o If the number of arrangements is β, the expedited arrangement cost for goods is p, the expedited response cost is q, the penalty cost to the customer is r, the opportunity loss cost is s, and the number of missing items is γ,
Cost Yz according to storage and discarded of the article was calculated by the following formula,
Yz = {(a + b + c) × (i / Σi) × g × h + (d × e) + f} × α
Cost Yt according to arrangements of the article is calculated by the following formula,
Yt = (l + m + n + o) × β
Cost Yk according to the shortage is calculated by the following formula,
Yk = (p + q + (r + s) / 2) × γ
The total cost Y related to inventory management of the article may be calculated as Y = Yz + Yt + Yk.
Thus, by determining each element relating to inventory management and calculating with the above equations, it is possible to calculate the total cost related to inventory management that is more realistic.

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, the apparatus further includes a storage unit that stores a cost table that stores a default value for each of the elements used for calculating the total cost, and the cost table includes: In addition to the default value, a user set value may be stored.
By storing the default value for each element used for calculating the total cost, the user can calculate the total cost without setting the value of each element. Moreover, since a user set value can be set, cost calculation according to a user's environment can be performed.

The arrangement scheme selection system according to a ninth aspect of the present invention, based on past arrangements result information further comprises a arrangement LT analysis unit, for analyzing the arrangements lead time for each of the article, the simulation execution unit, the it may be calculated quantity ordered for each of the articles using arrangements lead time arrangements LT analysis unit were analyzed.
Since the order quantity is calculated using the arrangement lead time analyzed based on the arrangement result information, the order quantity more realistic can be calculated.

The arrangement method selection system according to the tenth aspect of the present invention is the customer request LT analysis that analyzes the customer request lead time for each article for each delivery destination based on the past information about the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past. The simulation execution unit simulates the inventory quantity using the customer request lead time having the shortest period among the customer request lead times for each delivery destination analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit. May be performed .

The arrangement scheme selection system in the eleventh aspect of the present invention, based on past arrangements result information, ordering unit price analysis unit for analyzing the ordering unit price for each of the article, further wherein the ordering unit price analysis unit orders The order unit price when the lot is destroyed, the order unit price when ordered with a shorter delivery time than usual, and the order unit price for each period are analyzed, and the cost calculation unit uses the order unit price analyzed by the order unit price analysis unit. the total cost of each of the articles may be calculated.
Since the total cost for each article is calculated using the ordering unit price analyzed based on the order record information, it is possible to calculate a cost that is more realistic.

The arrangement method selection system according to the twelfth aspect of the present invention is the customer request LT that generates arbitrary customer request lead time information according to the distribution of the customer request lead time based on the result information about the delivery date designated by the delivery destination. generating unit, further wherein the simulation execution unit, the orders date of the article contained in the record information, wherein the days in which the customer requesting LT generation unit obtained by adding the customer requirements lead time information is generated as a goods issue date Inventory quantity simulation may be performed.
In the inventory quantity simulation, since the delivery date is calculated in consideration of the fluctuation of the customer request lead time, the simulation can be performed in accordance with the actual situation.

The arrangement method selection system according to a thirteenth aspect of the present invention further includes a demand prediction unit that predicts a quantity to be delivered by a predetermined demand prediction method based on performance information about a delivery date specified by a delivery destination, and the simulation implementation unit, the order quantity for each of the article was calculated on the basis of the goods issue quantity the demand prediction unit predicts, may perform the simulation.
In the inventory quantity simulation, the order quantity is calculated based on the demand forecast, so that a simulation that is more realistic can be performed.

According to the fourteenth aspect of the present invention, the arrangement method selection method includes at least one of a periodic quantitative method, an irregular quantitative method, a periodic irregular amount method, and an irregular irregular amount method when arranging goods. a candidate arrangements method comprising the steps of: acquiring setting information of the parameters relating to the arrangements system, based on the quantity ordered acquired the article as calculated on the basis of the setting information, the stock quantity of the articles by the arrangements scheme a step of simulation, calculating a total cost of inventory management of the article in the simulation, on the basis of the calculated the total cost, and determining the arrangements scheme and the parameters of the total cost to a minimum And in the step of simulating, the process for each article analyzed from past arrangement result information Based on the lead time and the customer-requested lead time for each item analyzed from the past information about the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past, the item having the customer-requested lead time longer than the arrangement lead-time is stored in the inventory. You may exclude from the quantity simulation object .

According to the fifteenth aspect of the present invention, the program uses the computer of the arrangement method selection system to arrange the articles , among the regular quantification method, the irregular quantification method, the regular quantification method, and the irregular quantification method. the article and the candidate arrangements system, based on the means for obtaining the setting information related parameter arrange method, order quantity of the article which is calculated based on the acquired setting information, by the arrangement method including at least one Means for simulating the inventory quantity of the product, means for calculating the total cost for inventory management of the article in the simulation, and determining the arrangement method and the parameter for minimizing the total cost based on the calculated total cost means, to function as a means for the simulation, the product was analyzed past arrangements record information Based on the arrangement lead time for each item and the customer request lead time for each item analyzed from the past information about the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past, the item having the customer request lead time longer than the arrangement lead time The stock quantity may be excluded from the simulation target .

  According to the present invention, it is possible to select an arrangement method that minimizes the total cost relating to inventory management after sufficiently analyzing parameters related to arrangement.

It is a functional block diagram of the arrangement system selection system in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the track record information which the arrangement system selection system in 1st embodiment of this invention uses. It is a 1st figure which shows an example of the analysis result of the customer request | requirement lead time in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a 2nd figure which shows an example of the analysis result of the customer request | requirement lead time in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the analysis function in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the setting information of the arrangement system selection process in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the calculation method of various quantities in the arrangement system in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the simulation result of the inventory quantity in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the calculation method of the cost in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the arrangement system selection process in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a display of the process result of the arrangement system selection process in 1st embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the arrangement system selection system in 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the arrangement system selection process in 2nd embodiment of this invention. It is a functional block diagram of the arrangement system selection system in 3rd embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the arrangement system selection process in 3rd embodiment of this invention.

<First embodiment>
Hereinafter, an arrangement system selection system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of an arrangement system selection system in the first embodiment of the present invention. The arrangement method selection system is a system that evaluates an appropriate arrangement method for each article, a parameter value in the arrangement method, and the like, based on a record of entering and leaving for each article provided to a delivery destination. The delivery destination is, for example, a customer when delivering as a product, or another factory when delivering to the next process as a part. Hereinafter, as examples of articles, embodiments (parts and accessories) of various devices and apparatuses constituting a plant and the like will be described, and an embodiment will be described by taking as an example a case where inventory management of various parts is performed. Examples of the arrangement method include a regular quantitative method, an irregular quantitative method, a periodic irregular method, and an irregular irregular method. In addition, parameters are the ordering methods such as the ordering cycle and the service rate used to determine the order quantity (the ratio of parts that can be provided without missing parts when requested by the delivery destination) when the ordering method is a periodic non-quantitative method. This is the value required to make arrangements.

  In the present embodiment, the arrangement method selection system is configured by, for example, one or a plurality of computers (such as server terminal devices). The arrangement method selection device 10 in FIG. 1 is an example of an arrangement method selection system.

  The arrangement method selection device 10 arranges parts according to a predetermined arrangement method based on past sales record information, arrangement record information, shipping record information, etc. for each part, and the inventory quantity when the parts are arranged by the arrangement method. Simulate the total cost of transition, parts arrangement and inventory storage.

(Functional configuration)
As shown in FIG. 1, the arrangement method selection apparatus 10 includes a setting information acquisition unit 101, a customer request LT analysis unit 102, an arrangement LT analysis unit 103, an order unit price analysis unit 104, a simulation execution unit 105, a cost calculation unit 106, an arrangement. A system determination unit 107, an input / output unit 108, and a storage unit 109 are provided.

  The setting information acquisition unit 101 receives input of setting information necessary for the simulation. For example, the setting information acquisition unit 101 acquires parameter setting information regarding arrangement of parts to be provided to a delivery destination, and condition information that defines simulation conditions such as a simulation period. The parameters relating to the arrangement include information on the arrangement method and parameters necessary for the implementation of the arrangement method. Parameters related to arrangement are called arrangement method parameters. Details of the parameters will be described later.

The customer request LT analysis unit 102 analyzes the customer request lead time for each part based on the past sales record information. The customer request lead time is the time from when a customer or other customer orders the part until delivery. The time to delivery is not the time required for actual delivery but the time to delivery specified by the delivery destination.
The arrangement LT analysis unit 103 analyzes the arrangement lead time for each part based on the past arrangement result information. The arrangement lead time is the time from when the part is arranged until it is received.
The ordering unit price analysis unit 104 analyzes the ordering unit price for each part based on the past arrangement result information.
These three analysis functions will be described in detail later.

  The simulation execution unit 105 includes information on arrangement method parameters and simulation conditions received by the setting information acquisition unit 101, customer request lead time analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit 102, arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103, and delivery Perform ordering and inventory quantity simulation using actual results information.

  The cost calculation unit 106 calculates the total cost related to inventory management such as parts arrangement and stock storage simulated by the simulation execution unit 105.

  The arrangement method determination unit 107 determines the arrangement method and the parameters at that time that minimize the total cost related to inventory management as a result of inventory management using the arrangement method parameters of various patterns simulated by the simulation execution unit 105.

  The input / output unit 108 receives an input operation by the user. The input / output unit 108 outputs the simulation result by the simulation execution unit 105, the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 106, and the like.

  The storage unit 109 stores various information such as various performance information, simulation results, and cost calculation results.

(Result information used for simulation)
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of performance information used by the arrangement method selection system according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2A shows an example of sales performance information. The sales performance information includes, for example, information on the order date, identification information of the ordered part (“part No”), order quantity, and delivery date.
FIG. 2B shows an example of arrangement result information. The order record information includes, for example, information on the order date of the part, identification information of the arranged part (“part No”), order quantity, order unit price, and receipt date.
FIG.2 (c) has shown an example of the delivery performance information. The delivery result information includes, for example, identification information (“part No”) of the delivered part, delivery date, and delivery quantity information.
FIG. 2D shows an example of inventory record information. The actual inventory information includes, for example, identification information (“part No”) of parts in stock, date, and inventory quantity.
Such information may be recorded in the storage unit 109.

(Three analysis functions)
Next, three analysis functions will be described. The analysis function is a function for examining parameters used in the simulation prior to the simulation such as inventory quantity. The simulation execution unit 105 can use the output of this analysis for selecting values used in the simulation and input data for the simulation, so that a more realistic inventory simulation can be performed. For example, when a part arrangement is simulated, the customer request lead time becomes important. The customer request LT analysis unit 102 analyzes the average, variance, and distribution of the customer request lead time. Further, for example, the simulation execution unit 105 determines whether or not it is necessary to have inventory for the part based on the customer request lead time analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit 102, and about the part that needs to have inventory. Only do inventory simulation.

FIG. 3 is a first diagram showing an example of the analysis result of the customer request lead time in the first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 3 is an example of an analysis result of customer request lead times requested by a plurality of delivery destinations for a part A in a predetermined period (for example, one year). The vertical axis in FIG. 3 is the number of cases, and the horizontal axis is the number of days of customer request lead time. The customer request LT analysis unit 102 can aggregate sales performance information in a predetermined period and obtain a result as shown in FIG. For example, the graph 31 at the left end of FIG. 3 indicates that there is “Y1” sales performance information for the part A whose customer request lead time was “X1”. The same applies to the other graphs 32-34. Further, the graph 35 indicates that the average value of the arrangement lead time for the part A is “X5”. The arrangement LT analysis unit 103 calculates the average arrangement lead time from the arrangement record information. When the customer request lead time of part A is “X1” or “X2”, that is, shorter than the average value “X5” of the arrangement lead time, if there is no inventory of part A, there is a high possibility of being a missing part. it is conceivable that. On the other hand, if the customer request lead time of part A is “X3”, “X4” and longer than “X5”, the customer etc. will not have inventory but will order part A after receiving an order from customer etc. There is a possibility that it will meet the delivery date required. As described above, the analysis result of the customer request lead time can be used as a guideline whether to hold the inventory of parts to be analyzed or arrange each time an order is received.
FIG. 3 shows the analysis result of the customer request lead time by period by the customer request LT analysis unit 102. For example, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 calculates the customer request lead time for the part A by year. May be. Further, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 may analyze the customer request lead time for the part A for each customer.

FIG. 4 is a second diagram showing an example of the analysis result of the customer request lead time in the first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a list of an average value (“recommended average value”), a standard deviation (“recommended standard deviation”), a maximum value, and a minimum value of customer request lead times for each part. The customer request LT analysis unit 102 calculates an average value, standard deviation, maximum value, minimum value, and the like of the customer request lead time in a predetermined period, and records the analysis result in the storage unit 109. As described above, the simulation execution unit 105 uses the analysis result of the customer request LT analysis unit 102 for the inventory simulation. For example, the simulation execution unit 105 compares the average value of the customer request lead time and the average value of the arrangement lead time to determine whether or not the part A stock is held. The simulation execution unit 105 simulates the inventory quantity of the part only when it is necessary to hold the inventory. In FIG. 4, “current customer request LT setting value” and “current arrangement LT setting value” indicate current setting values used by the simulation execution unit 105 for the simulation.

  Further, the analysis result by the customer request LT analysis unit 102 can be used not only for the simulation of the inventory quantity but also independently. For example, the input / output unit 108 displays the tables and graphs illustrated in FIG. 3 and FIG. 4 based on the analysis results by the customer request LT analysis unit 102 and the arrangement LT analysis unit 103. A person who performs an inventory management plan for the part A refers to these graphs and the like. For example, if the lead time requested by the customer for the part A is sufficiently longer than the arrangement lead time, the part A has an inventory. You can decide not to manage. Further, for example, when the customer request lead time of a specific customer is extremely shorter than the lead times of other customers, the demand forecast for the part A by the customer is performed, and the inventory management of the part A is planned. Measures can be taken.

  The example of analyzing the customer request lead time by the customer request LT analysis unit 102 has been described with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4. Similarly, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 similarly analyzes the average value, standard deviation, maximum value, minimum value, and the like of the arrangement lead time for each part based on the past arrangement record information. Further, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 may analyze arrangement lead times for each ordering year and for each component supplier. The simulation execution unit 105 uses the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 in calculating the order quantity in the inventory simulation.

  Similarly, the order unit price analysis unit 104 analyzes the average value, standard deviation, maximum value, minimum value, and the like of the order unit price for each part based on the past arrangement result information. Further, the order unit price analysis unit 104 analyzes an order unit price when the order lot is destroyed, an order unit price when an order is made with a shorter delivery time than usual, an order unit price for each period, and the like. The unit price analyzed by the order unit price analysis unit 104 is used when the cost calculation unit 106 performs cost calculation. The input / output unit 108 may display the analysis result and provide the user with information on the analysis result of the ordering unit price. In addition, when used in conjunction with the function for calculating the total cost related to inventory management, which will be described later, for example, on the condition that the total cost does not change from the present, when ordering by breaking the order lot, or arranging with a short delivery time, This can be used to determine the extent to which the order price increase is acceptable.

FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing processing of the analysis function in the first embodiment of the present invention.
First, the user performs an operation for instructing the arrangement method selection apparatus 10 to start analysis processing of three analysis parameters. When receiving the operation (step S101), the input / output unit 108 instructs the customer request LT analysis unit 102, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103, and the order unit price analysis unit 104 to start various analysis processes. First, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 reads the sales performance information exemplified in FIG. 2A from the storage unit 109, and analyzes the customer request lead time for each part (step S102). More specifically, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 subtracts the order date from the delivery date and calculates the time from the order date to the delivery date (customer request lead time) for the detailed information (record) of each line of the sales performance information. To do. Further, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 obtains the average, variation (standard deviation), maximum value, minimum value, and the like for each component for each calculated customer request lead time. Further, the customer request LT analysis unit 102 may calculate a customer request lead time for each delivery destination such as a customer. The customer request LT analysis unit 102 records the average value of the calculated customer request lead time in the storage unit 109.

  Further, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 reads out the arrangement result information illustrated in FIG. 2B from the storage unit 109, and analyzes the arrangement lead time for each part (step S103). More specifically, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 calculates the time (arrangement lead time) from the order date to the warehousing date by subtracting the order date from the warehousing date for the detailed information (record) of each line of the arrangement result information. To do. Further, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 obtains the average, variation (standard deviation), maximum value, minimum value, and the like for each part for each calculated arrangement lead time. Further, the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 may calculate an arrangement lead time for each supplier. The arrangement LT analysis unit 103 records the average value of the calculated arrangement lead time in the storage unit 109.

  Further, the order unit price analysis unit 104 reads the order record information illustrated in FIG. 2B from the storage unit 109 and analyzes the order unit price for each part (step S104). More specifically, the order unit price analysis unit 104 aggregates the unit price for each part for the detailed information (record) of each line of the arrangement result information, and averages the unit price, variation (standard deviation), maximum value, minimum value, Find the unit price for each period. The order price analysis unit 104 records the average value of the calculated order price in the storage unit 109. The order unit price analysis unit 104 analyzes the relationship between the order unit price and the arrangement lead time, and outputs the analysis result as a bubble chart (a kind of scatter diagram).

  These three analysis parameters are not sufficiently analyzed in the conventional inventory management simulation, and fixed set values are often used. According to the analysis function of the present embodiment, for example, an average value of customer request lead times after analysis by the customer request LT analysis unit 102 and an average value of arrangement lead times after analysis by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 are compared. Accordingly, it is possible to automatically determine whether or not advance arrangement is necessary for a part that has stock for a part that does not necessarily have stock. In addition, since an appropriate arrangement lead time based on the actual results is calculated based on the arrangement lead time after the analysis by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103, it is possible to suppress the risk of excessive inventory and shortage. Further, by using the order unit price after analysis by the order unit price analysis unit 104 as a reference, it is possible to arrange parts at an appropriate price, or to arrange parts in anticipation of an arrangement lead time at an appropriate price. become.

  Hereinafter, a method for selecting an appropriate arrangement method parameter will be described using the analysis results of these three analysis parameters. First, input values (setting information) necessary for selecting an arrangement method parameter will be described.

(Setting information)
FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining setting information of the arrangement method selection process in the first embodiment of the present invention.
The user inputs a setting method, a service rate, an ordering cycle, the number of ordering lots, parts, a simulation period, and a simulation mesh from the input interface output from the input / output unit 108, and issues a simulation start instruction. Among these setting information, the arrangement method, the service rate, the order cycle, and the number of order lots are arrangement method parameters. Each item of the part, the simulation period, and the simulation mesh is a simulation condition.

(Setting information: Arrangement method parameters)
The user sets the part arrangement method. For the arrangement method, for example, options of regular quantification, irregular quantification, regular quantification, and irregular quantification are presented, and the user sets one or a plurality of arrangement methods. When a plurality of arrangement methods are selected, the arrangement method determination unit 107 compares the simulation results of the selected plurality of arrangement methods and determines the best arrangement method. Also, for example, when there is one arrangement method that can be arranged by the user, after the user selects the arrangement method, the setting contents of other arrangement method parameters described below are devised. Thus, the best parameter can be examined in the selected arrangement method.

  The ordering cycle is an item for specifying an ordering interval in the ordering method set by the user. For the ordering cycle, the user selects one or a plurality of set values from, for example, one day, one week, one month, two months, three months, four months, five months, six months, and the like. When the user selects a plurality of ordering cycles, the arrangement method determining unit 107 compares the simulation results of the plurality of ordering cycles and determines the best ordering cycle. In addition, when the ordering cycle is determined in advance by the purchasing department or the like, for example, one month, the user sets one month in the ordering cycle, and performs simulation by varying other parameters related to the ordering method. By setting in this way, it is possible to examine what ordering method is effective under the condition that the ordering cycle is defined as one month. Note that the value set in the ordering cycle is not used in the case of performing a simulation of an arrangement method (irregular amount, irregular amount) that is irregular in the ordering cycle.

  The service rate is the probability of being able to meet a delivery request from a delivery destination such as a customer. The service rate is used for calculating the order quantity of parts in the simulation. For example, when the user sets a certain service rate, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the order quantity that can achieve the set service rate, and simulates the inventory quantity. Since the service rate set here is a target value, the set service rate is not always achieved as a result of simulation. The user sets an upper limit value, a lower limit value, and a pitch of the target service rate with respect to the service rate. For example, the user sets an upper limit value = 99.5%, a lower limit value = 97%, and a pitch = 0.5. Then, the simulation execution unit 105 performs an arrangement simulation targeting each service rate from the service rate = 97% to 99.5% in 0.5 increments. In addition, the value set by the service rate is not used when performing regular quantitative simulation.

  The order lot number is a basic unit of the order quantity per time. For example, if the order lot number is 50, the order quantity is one of multiples of the order lot number such as 50, 100, 150, and 200. The user sets the start value, end value, and pitch of the order lot number for the order lot number. For example, the user sets start value = 1, end value = 100, and pitch = 1. Then, the simulation execution unit 105 changes the order quantity from the start value = 1 to 100 in increments of 1, and performs an order simulation for each order lot number.

(Setting information: Simulation conditions)
The user sets identification information (“part No”) of one or more parts to be simulated for the part. In addition, the user sets start and end dates for the simulation period. In addition, the user sets a unit period for calculating the inventory quantity for the simulation mesh. For example, the user sets days, weeks, or months for the simulation mesh.

(Calculation method of various quantities for each arrangement method)
FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a method for calculating various quantities in the arrangement method according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
The inventory quantity simulation method by the simulation execution unit 105 will be described with reference to FIG. In the case of the present embodiment, the simulation execution unit 105 includes setting information set by the user, inventory record information, shipping record information, customer request lead time (for example, average value) analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit 102, and arrangement LT analysis unit. The inventory quantity is simulated using the arrangement lead time (for example, the average value) analyzed by 103 and the calculation formula illustrated in FIG.
For example, it is assumed that the setting information set by the user is the value shown in FIG. First, the simulation execution unit 105 reads the inventory quantity of “part A” in “2014/10/1” from the inventory record information illustrated in FIG. Next, the simulation execution unit 105 reads the delivery quantity of “part A” in “2014/10/2” from the delivery record information illustrated in FIG. The simulation execution unit 105 subtracts the output quantity of “2014/10/2” from the read inventory quantity of “2014/10/1” to calculate the inventory quantity at “2014/10/2”.

(Regular amount)
On the other hand, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the warehousing quantity of the part A using the calculation formula of FIG. For example, when the arrangement method is not regular, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the safety stock quantity by the following equation (1).

  Here, SS is the number of safety stocks, k is a safety factor, σ is a target period standard deviation, LT is an arrangement lead time, and T is an ordering cycle. The value of the safety coefficient k is recorded in advance in the storage unit 109 in association with the service rate. The simulation execution unit 105 reads the safety coefficient corresponding to the service rate (for example, 95%) designated by the user from the storage unit 109 and sets it to k. σ is a value indicating variation in demand for the part A. This σ is also recorded in the storage unit 109 in advance. The arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 can be used as the LT. The simulation execution unit 105 reads the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 from the storage unit 109 and sets it to LT. Further, the simulation execution unit 105 sets an ordering cycle designated by the user in T (in this example, for example, one day). From these values, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the safety stock number (SS).

After calculating the low stock quantity SS, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the order quantity Q by the following formula.
Q = (LT + T) × AV−OH−SO + SS (2)
Here, AV is the average delivery quantity for the target period, OH is the current inventory quantity, and SO is the remaining order (ordered and unpaid). The simulation execution part 105 calculates | requires AV by calculating the average value of the delivery quantity of the predetermined period in the past seeing from the simulation object day of delivery performance information. Further, the simulation execution unit 105 obtains the current inventory quantity OH ("2014/10/2") obtained by simulation. In addition, the simulation execution unit 105 orders the ordered quantity Q but totals the quantity that has not been paid (the order lead time has not elapsed since the order was placed) and substitutes it into SO. From these values, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the order quantity Q. When the order lot number is designated, the simulation execution unit 105 selects a minimum value among the calculated order quantity Q and a value that is a multiple of the order lot number, and calculates the value. It can be used as an order quantity.

  Next, the simulation execution unit 105 determines whether or not the ordering cycle (T) has elapsed since the previous ordering date (including the case where the order quantity = 0), and if the ordering cycle T has elapsed, It is determined whether the order quantity calculated in 2) is greater than zero. When larger than 0, the simulation execution unit 105 orders the part A by the order quantity Q. When the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 elapses from the ordering, the simulation execution unit 105 generates the receipt of the part A by the order quantity Q. At this time, the simulation execution unit 105 adds Q to the inventory quantity of the part A. In this way, the simulation execution unit 105 simulates the receipt of the part A, and simulates the inventory quantity of the part A using the actual delivery result information for the delivery. The order quantity calculation method in other arrangement methods will be described below.

(Irregular amount)
When the ordering method is irregular quantification, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the safety stock quantity by the following equation (3).

The order quantity is a predetermined constant. Alternatively, when the number of order lots is specified, the simulation execution unit 105 selects a minimum value among the values that are equal to or larger than a predetermined order quantity and is a multiple of the order lot, and uses that value as the order quantity. Can be used as Further, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the order point ROP by the following equation (4).
ROP = LT × AV + SS (4)
About LT and AV, it is the same as that of the case of regular indefinite amount. The simulation execution unit 105 places an order for the part A when the following formula (5) holds for the calculated order point ROP (the order quantity is Q according to the above formula (3)).
OH <= ROP-SO (5)
In addition, the simulation execution unit 105 generates a receipt of the part A on the day when the arrangement lead time has elapsed from the order, and adds the order quantity Q to the inventory quantity.

(Irregular and unfixed amount)
When the ordering method is irregular quantification, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the safety stock quantity by the above-described equation (3) as in the case of irregular quantification.
Further, the order quantity is calculated by the following formula (6).
Q = LT × AV−OH−SO + SS (6)
Further, the simulation execution unit 105 places an order for the part A when the following formula (7) holds for the order quantity Q.
Q> 0 (7)
The simulation execution unit 105 generates a part A on the day when the arrangement lead time has elapsed from the order, and adds the order quantity Q to the inventory quantity. When the order lot number is designated, the simulation execution unit 105 selects a minimum value among the calculated order quantity Q and a value that is a multiple of the order lot number, and calculates the value. It can be used as an order quantity.

(Regular determination)
When the ordering method is regular quantification, the simulation execution unit 105 orders a predetermined order quantity at predetermined time intervals. The predetermined order quantity may be a predetermined constant. Alternatively, when the number of order lots is specified, the simulation execution unit 105 selects a minimum value among the values that are equal to or larger than a predetermined order quantity and is a multiple of the order lot, and uses that value as the order quantity. Can be used as Of the setting information set by the user, this is a value set for the order lot number. The predetermined time interval is a value set by the user for the ordering cycle in the setting information set by the user.
The simulation execution unit 105 generates a receipt of the part A on the day when the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 has elapsed from the order, and adds the order quantity Q to the inventory quantity.

  The simulation execution unit 105 calculates the order quantity for each of one or a plurality of arrangement methods designated by the user by the calculation method corresponding to each arrangement method, and simulates the inventory quantity in the simulation period. In addition, the simulation execution unit 105 calculates the number of orders when placing an order by each ordering method, and the number of missing parts for which an order from a customer or other customer has occurred while simulating the inventory quantity. You may go.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the simulation result of the inventory quantity in the first embodiment of the present invention.
The vertical axis in FIG. 8 indicates the quantity of parts, and the horizontal axis indicates the period during which the simulation was performed. The graph of FIG. 8 is a display example by the input / output unit 108 of the simulation result by the simulation execution unit 105. FIG. 8 shows the result when a simulation is performed using a certain arrangement method. In the present embodiment, the actual value is used as the outgoing quantity, and the value calculated by the method described with reference to FIG. 7 is used as the incoming quantity. In addition, the actual quantity is used as the inventory quantity at the start of the simulation, and the subsequent inventory quantity is calculated by the difference between the delivery quantity and the receipt quantity by the simulation. In the figure, the black bar indicates the actual value of the outgoing quantity, the hatched bar indicates the calculated value of the incoming quantity, and the broken line indicates the calculated value of the inventory quantity. By displaying the simulation result in this manner, the input / output unit 108 allows the user to visually grasp whether or not a shortage has occurred and the validity of the stock quantity such as the stock quantity being larger or smaller than the leaving quantity. Can do.
The input / output unit 108 may display the number of orders, the number of missing items, the cost for inventory management, and the like together with the graph of FIG. Next, a cost calculation method in this embodiment will be described.

FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining a cost calculation method in the first embodiment of the present invention.
As described above, the simulation execution unit 105 simulates the ordering method and the order quantity for each parameter set by the user. When this simulation is completed for all patterns, the cost calculation unit 106 calculates a cost for each simulation result.
The cost calculation unit 106 is a total of an inventory management cost Y _z that is a cost related to stock storage and amortization, an arrangement cost Y _t that is a cost related to parts arrangement (ordering), and a shortage handling cost Y _k. The total cost Y is calculated when the inventory is managed by arranging each item.
Y = _Yz + _Yt + _Yk (8)

FIG. 9 illustrates the elements constituting each cost classification Y _z , Y _t , Y _k for cost calculation. Inventory management cost Y _z is storage cost / maintenance cost a, inventory inventory cost b, warehouse cost c, risk of obsolescence / retirement d, loss e due to disposal, cost f for disposal, unit price g, interest rate h , Size / volume i. The storage cost / maintenance cost a is a cost related to maintenance management of storage facilities such as rust prevention, cleaning, and ordering. The inventory inventory cost b is various expenses related to inventory. The warehouse cost c is a warehouse rent or the like. The risk d of obsolescence / disposal is the probability (%) that an individual item is obsolescent due to obsolescence. The loss e due to disposal is the unit price of parts. Costs f for disposal are personnel costs, disposal costs, etc. for disposal. The unit price g is the unit price of the part. For the unit price g, an average value of the order unit price analyzed by the order unit price analysis unit 104 may be used, or a value set by the user separately may be used. The interest rate h is an interest rate (%). The size i is the volume (m ³ ) of the part. The inventory management cost Y _z can be calculated by the following formula, for example, using these elements.
Y _z = {(a + b + c) × (i / Σi) × g × h + (d × e) + f}
× α (9)
Here, α is the inventory quantity (number) of parts.

The arrangement cost Y _t includes the elements of personnel cost l in charge of parts arrangement, transportation cost m, customs cost n, and inspection labor cost o. The labor cost l in charge of arranging parts is an artificial cost in the production management department or a labor cost in the procurement department. The transportation cost m is a cost for transportation from a supplier of parts. The customs expenses n are expenses paid to customs, insurance charges, etc., and are expenses that need to be considered when procuring from overseas. The inspection labor cost o is a labor cost required for the inspection work. The arrangement cost Y _t can be calculated, for example, by the following formula using these elements.
Y _t = (l + m + n + o) × β (10)
Here, β is the number of arrangements per unit period.

The out-of-stock cost _Yk includes elements of an express arrangement fee p, an onsite express response cost q, a penalty r paid to the customer, and an opportunity loss cost s. The express arrangement cost p is a labor cost of the production management department, a labor cost of the procurement department, a short delivery cost to the supplier, and the like. The on-site express response cost q is a labor cost for the manufacturing department such as overtime, and is a cost to be considered when parts are manufactured in-house. The penalty cost r paid to the customer is a reimbursement cost per time paid to the customer or the like, and the opportunity loss cost s is a profit when the part can be sold. The out-of-stock cost _Yk can be calculated by using the following formula, for example, using these factors.
Y _k = (p + q + (r + s) / 2) × γ (11)
Here, γ is the number of missing items per unit period.
The cost calculation unit 106 calculates Y _z , Y _t , and Y _k using Equation (9), Equation (10), and Equation (11), respectively, and further calculates the total cost required for inventory management by adding the values. To do.

The values of these elements are set in the cost table stored in the storage unit 109, and the cost calculation unit 106 uses the simulation results of the simulation execution unit 105 and the elements set in the cost table of the storage unit 109. To calculate the total cost. For example, the cost calculation unit 106 uses the average value of the inventory quantity obtained from the simulation result as the value of the inventory quantity α of the inventory management cost Y _z . For example, the cost calculation unit 106 uses the order number obtained from the simulation result as the value of the order number β of the arrangement cost Y _t . Further, for example, the cost calculation unit 106 uses the number of missing items obtained from the simulation result as the value of the number of missing items γ of the missing item corresponding cost _Yk .

  Note that the value of each element can be arbitrarily set according to the management status of the components managed by the user. For example, the user can set an average value of the annual maintenance cost results in the storage cost / maintenance cost a. Further, for example, the user may set a value obtained by multiplying the inventory inventory cost b by the ratio of the inventory budget and the number of target parts to the total inventory target parts. Further, for example, the user may set a value obtained by multiplying the labor cost l for the parts arrangement by the annual man-hour and the quantity ratio occupied by the part. Further, for example, the user may set a value obtained by adding the short-term delivery cost of the target part to a value obtained by multiplying the express arrangement cost p by the ratio of annual man-hours and the number of cases occupied by the target part.

  Further, in the cost table, not only the user setting value of each element but also a default value may be set for each part. If the user cannot set an appropriate user setting value by setting the default value, the cost can be calculated using the default value. In addition, if the result of cost calculation using the default value is too far from the actual cost, the default value was adjusted so that the calculation result would be equivalent to the actual cost. If the value is set to the user set value, it becomes possible to perform cost calculation in accordance with reality.

In this embodiment, the total cost in various arrangement methods can be compared to select an appropriate (the lowest total cost) arrangement method. For example, the user compares only the arrangement cost Y _t. If it is desired to set all the user set values for each element of the inventory management cost Y _z and the shortage handling cost Y _k to 0, the arrangement method determination unit 107 compares only the arrangement cost Y _t and arranges the arrangement cost. Y _t is to select the cheapest arrangements system parameters. Further, when the user wants to compare only the transportation cost m in the arrangement cost Y _t , the arrangement method determination unit 107 can set the transportation cost most if the user setting value of other elements (l, n, o) is set to 0. Select an arrangement method that reduces m.

(Flow of arrangement method selection process)
FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing an example of an arrangement method selection process in the first embodiment of the present invention.
The flow of the arrangement method selection process of this embodiment will be described using FIG.
As a premise, it is assumed that the analysis processing for the three analysis parameters described in FIG. 5 has already been executed, and each analysis result is recorded in the storage unit 109.
First, the input / output unit 108 generates an image of a user input interface for the arrangement method selection process, and displays the image on a display connected to 10. The user sets an arrangement method parameter (arrangement method, the number of ordering lots, a service rate, an ordering cycle) and a simulation condition, and performs an operation for instructing the execution start of the arrangement method selection process. Then, the input / output unit 108 receives input of setting information for the operation and arrangement method determination (step S111). The input / output unit 108 outputs the received parameters and the like to the simulation execution unit 105. Next, the simulation execution unit 105 reads out and acquires the results of the respective analysis processes (analysis results for the three analysis parameters) from the storage unit 109 (step S112). At this time, as an optional function, the simulation execution unit 105, based on the analysis result of the customer request lead time and the analysis result of the arrangement lead time, out of the parts received in step S101, customer request lead time> arrangement lead It may be determined that there is no need to have a stock for a product that is timed and may be excluded from the simulation target. Here, the results of the analysis processing for the three analysis parameters are used, but regardless of the results of each analysis processing, the customer request lead time set by the user, the arrangement lead time set by the user, The following simulation may be performed using the set ordering unit price. Next, the simulation execution unit 105 reads out and acquires the warehousing result information and the inventory result information from the storage unit 109 (step S113).

  Next, the simulation execution unit 105 simulates inventory quantities for all combination patterns of arrangement method parameters set by the user for all parts to be simulated. Further, the cost calculation unit 106 performs cost calculation on the simulation results of all patterns simulated by the simulation execution unit 105. First, the inventory quantity is simulated for a first pattern of parameter combinations for a part having the simulation execution unit 105 (step S114). A specific method is as described with reference to FIGS. The simulation execution unit 105 outputs the simulation result to the cost calculation unit 106. Next, the cost calculation part 106 performs total cost calculation with respect to the acquired simulation result (step S115). A specific method is as described with reference to FIG. Next, the cost calculation unit 106 records the acquired simulation result and the calculated total cost in the storage unit 109 (step S116). Next, the simulation execution unit 105 determines whether or not all patterns have been simulated (step S117). If all patterns have not been completed (step S117; No), the processing from step S114 is repeated.

  Here, an example is given and demonstrated about the simulation of all the patterns. For example, in the case of the example in FIG. 6, the simulation execution unit 105 first performs a daily inventory quantity simulation for the component A in 2014/10/1 to 2015/10/1 with the arrangement method as a regular quantification. When the ordering method is regular quantification, a simulation is performed for all combinations of the ordering cycle and the number of ordering lots. Specifically, the simulation is performed under each condition in which the order cycle is 1 day and the order lot number is one, and is increased by one until the order lot number reaches 100. Next, the simulation execution unit 105 sets the ordering cycle to one week and similarly performs the simulation while changing the number of ordering lots. The same applies hereinafter. When the simulation in the case of the regular quantification is completed for all patterns, the simulation execution unit 105 performs a simulation for the part A with the irregular arrangement quantified. Also in the case of irregular quantification, the simulation execution unit 105 performs a brute force simulation according to all patterns of each parameter while changing the service rate and the number of ordered lots within a range set by the user. Further, the simulation execution unit 105 performs the simulation in the same manner even when the arrangement method is set to be indefinite or irregular, and performs simulation for all patterns of the arrangement method parameters set for the part A. When the simulation of all patterns for part A is completed, the simulation of all patterns is performed in the same manner for part B.

  When the simulation of the inventory quantity and the calculation of the total cost in all patterns are completed in this way (step S117; Yes), the arrangement method determination unit 107 next calculates from the simulation result and the total cost recorded in the storage unit 109. A combination (pattern) of arrangement method parameters that minimizes the total cost is selected (step S118). The arrangement method determination unit 107 selects a combination of arrangement method parameters that minimizes the total cost for each component. The arrangement method determination unit 107 outputs the selected result to the input / output unit 108. Next, the input / output unit 108 generates an image (for example, FIG. 11 described below) displaying the simulation result and the total cost in the combination selected by the arrangement method determination unit 107, and outputs the generated image to the display (step S119).

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a display example of the result of the arrangement method selection process in the first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 11 shows arrangement method parameters, simulation results, and total cost when the total cost for each simulated part is minimized. In the case of FIG. 11, for the part No. “001”, the arrangement method is “regular amount”, and the parameters are set when the ordering cycle is “1” day and the set service rate is “0.995”. The total cost is “1111” yen, which is the cheapest. In addition, when the inventory quantity simulation was performed with this parameter, the number of orders during the simulation period was “8”, the number of missing parts was “2”, and the average inventory during the simulation period was “23”. Yes. The user can grasp the appropriate arrangement method (minimizing the cost) and its parameters for each part by looking at the simulation result illustrated in FIG.
The simulation result by the input / output unit 108 is not limited to the content of FIG. For example, the user may set a predetermined total cost target value in advance, and output all patterns in which the total cost falls within the target value range. Alternatively, ten simulation results may be displayed in order from the lowest total cost. Alternatively, a target value may be set for the number of orders, the number of missing items, the average inventory, etc., and a pattern for achieving the target value may be displayed.

  In the past, the order quantity was often calculated using a predetermined arrangement method, but according to the present embodiment, the arrangement quantity is calculated by performing a simulation of the inventory quantity for each combination of various arrangement method parameters. It is possible to evaluate parameters and select an appropriate arrangement method. As a result, it is possible to reduce the risk of excessive inventory due to an improper arrangement method or out of stock. In addition, since the inventory simulation is performed by taking in the analysis results of the customer request lead time and the arrangement lead time, it is possible to perform a simulation in accordance with the actual situation. Also, based on the simulation results of inventory including the arrangement method parameters, the user does not determine the arrangement method qualitatively, but performs a thorough analysis on the parameters such as the ordering cycle and quantitatively determines the arrangement method. Can be selected. In addition, since it is possible to simultaneously analyze the three parameters that are the key to selecting an arrangement method, which has taken a long time for examination, and to select an arrangement method, it is possible to shorten the time required for the arrangement method selection work. . Further, by calculating the cost related to inventory management, the cost required for inventory management can be clarified, and the arrangement method can be selected quantitatively. In addition, the cost related to inventory management can be set up to costs such as costs related to arrangements, transportation costs, and customs costs, in addition to costs associated with excessive inventory and shortage that have been conventionally considered. Thereby, the cost concerning inventory management can be evaluated in total.

  Note that according to the customer request LT analysis unit 102 of the present embodiment, it is possible to exclude order information whose customer request lead time is longer than the arrangement lead time from the input of the inventory quantity simulation. This function is used to examine parts that have customer request lead times longer than their own production lead times and do not have them in stock because they will be in time for post-order arrangements, or exclude those parts from main inventory management. be able to. In addition, this function makes it possible to study an effective arrangement method focusing on the priority management target parts. Note that the three analysis functions are not essential in the simulation. The stock quantity may be simulated by giving the customer request lead time, the arrangement lead time, and the order unit price from the outside. Further, the calculation method of the total cost related to inventory management is not limited to the above example. For example, the cost may be calculated by a calculation formula that multiplies each element by a weighting coefficient.

  Further, in the above description, the case where an appropriate arrangement method is determined from regular quantification, irregular quantification, regular quantification, and irregular quantification has been described as an example. The arrangement method selection device 10 can be used flexibly for determining arrangement method parameters even when there are various restrictions. For example, when the arrangement method is “periodic fixed amount” or “periodic non-quantitative amount”, an order cycle that minimizes the total cost can be obtained. Alternatively, when the arrangement method is “irregular quantification” or “periodic quantification”, the number of order lots that minimizes the total cost can be obtained. Alternatively, when the arrangement method is determined as one predetermined method, the service rate that minimizes the total cost can be obtained. More specifically, some examples will be described. For example, when the arrangement method is determined to be “regular amount”, it can also be used in a situation where an appropriate parameter is determined. In this case, the user sets only “regular amount” for the arrangement method in the setting information, and sets values in an arbitrary range for the ordering cycle and the service rate. If the simulation is executed by setting in this way, it is possible to obtain a combination of the ordering method parameters including the ordering cycle and the service rate value that minimize the total cost in the ordering method “regular amount”. In addition, if the ordering cycle is decided once a month, “regular amount” is set for the arrangement method of setting information, “one month” is set for the ordering cycle, and a value in an arbitrary range is set for the service rate. , Do a simulation. If the simulation is executed with the setting as described above, it is possible to obtain a combination of the arrangement method parameters including the arrangement method “regular amount” and the target service rate that minimizes the total cost in “one month” in the ordering cycle. . Thus, according to the present embodiment, even when some of the arrangement method parameters are already determined and cannot be freely selected, they can be used for determining the remaining parameters.

  In addition, as an example of the arrangement method, a regular fixed amount method, an irregular fixed amount method, a periodic non-quantitative method, and an irregular non-quantitative method are mentioned, but the example of the arrange method is not limited to this. For example, a double bin method, a quantitative maintenance method, a synchronized ordering method, a partial ordering method, and the like may be included in the ordering method options. In that case, you may add the setting of the parameter peculiar to each system to the setting information of this arrangement system selection system as needed.

<Second embodiment>
Hereinafter, an arrangement system selection system according to two embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
In the first embodiment, the inventory quantity is simulated using the shipping record information. In the present embodiment, the inventory quantity is simulated on the assumption that the delivery date is changed in consideration of the variation in the customer request lead time and the parts are delivered in accordance with the delivery date.

FIG. 12 is a functional block diagram of the arrangement method selection system in the second embodiment of the present invention.
Among the configurations according to the second embodiment of the present invention, the same components as those of the arrangement method selection device 10 according to the first embodiment of the present invention are denoted by the same reference numerals, and description thereof will be omitted. The arrangement method selection device 10a according to the second embodiment includes a simulation execution unit 105a instead of the simulation execution unit 105 in the configuration of the first embodiment. The simulation execution unit 105a includes a customer request LT generation unit 110a.
Based on the average value and standard deviation of the customer request lead time analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit 102, the customer request LT generation unit 110a uses a normal distribution (or a predetermined distribution specified by the user) by a random algorithm such as the Monte Carlo method. ) To generate any customer request lead time information.
The simulation execution unit 105a sets the date when the customer request lead time generated by the customer request LT generation unit 110a is added to the order date stored in the sales result information as the date of delivery instead of the date of delivery included in the issue result information. Simulate inventory quantity.

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of an arrangement method selection process in the second embodiment of the present invention.
Also in the second embodiment, the general flow of the arrangement method selection process is the same as in FIG. However, the inventory quantity simulation method in step S114 is different. Therefore, the inventory quantity simulation in the second embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
First, the simulation execution unit 105a acquires the customer request lead time randomly generated by the customer request LT generation unit 110a (step S201). Next, the simulation execution unit 105a performs a part order simulation (calculation of the order quantity Q) by the method described with reference to FIG. 7 (step S202). The simulation execution unit 105a calculates an average value of the output quantity in a predetermined period in the past from the time of calculating the order quantity to obtain AV (average value of the output quantity). In this embodiment, the customer request lead time is randomly selected. For the period generated, the average value of the quantity shipped is calculated using the delivery date obtained by adding the customer request lead time acquired in step S201 to the order date of the sales performance information, not the delivery date of the delivery performance information. calculate.

  In parallel with the order quantity simulation, the simulation execution unit 105a performs a delivery simulation (step S203). In the present embodiment, the simulation execution unit 105a generates a delivery date obtained by adding the customer request lead time acquired in step S201 to the order date of the sales performance information.

Next, the simulation execution unit 105a performs a stock quantity simulation (step S204). For example, the simulation execution unit 105a generates a part on the day when the average value of the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 has elapsed from the order, and adds the order quantity Q to the inventory quantity. Alternatively, the simulation execution unit 105a may generate a part on the day when the arrangement lead time arbitrarily set by the user has elapsed, and add the order quantity Q to the inventory quantity. Further, the simulation execution unit 105a generates a corresponding order for delivery on the delivery date calculated in step S203, and subtracts the order quantity from the inventory quantity. The corresponding order is the order quantity recorded in the record of sales performance information related to the order date used for calculating the shipping date.
The above is the method for calculating the stock quantity when one order and delivery have occurred. The customer request LT generation unit 110a generates an arbitrary customer request lead time according to a normal distribution or the like every time an order is received for a simulation target period set by a user. Moreover, the simulation execution part 105a simulates inventory quantity by said method using the customer request | requirement lead time. The simulation execution unit 105 a calculates the average value of the inventory quantity, the number of orders, and the number of missing items, and outputs the calculated value to the cost calculation unit 106. The cost calculation unit 106 calculates the total cost as in the first embodiment.

  In the case of this embodiment, the customer request LT generation unit 110a generates a customer request lead time each time an order is received. Therefore, even if the simulation is repeated under the same conditions, the total cost calculation result may vary. Therefore, it is preferable to perform a simulation repeatedly for one arrangement method parameter combination and evaluate the average value of the total cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 106 as the total cost for the pattern.

  In the above example, the customer-requested lead time is arbitrarily generated, and the order to delivery (shipment) simulation is performed based on the information. However, the arrangement lead time is also a normal distribution (or a predetermined value estimated by the user). An arbitrary arrangement lead time may be generated according to (distribution) and a simulation may be performed in which the warehousing date varies.

The actual customer request lead time is not necessarily constant even for the same part. According to the present embodiment, by changing the customer request lead time, it is possible to simulate a more realistic inventory quantity, more appropriately, an arrangement method that minimizes the total cost related to inventory management, and at that time Parameters can be determined.
Further, the customer request lead time may vary greatly depending on the delivery destination such as a customer. In such a case, if the customer request lead time is generated based on the average value or the standard deviation analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit 102, there is a possibility that the actual customer request lead time may deviate. In such a case, for example, the inventory quantity for each customer may be simulated using the sales performance information for each customer and the customer request lead time for each customer.

<Third embodiment>
Hereinafter, an arrangement system selection system according to three embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.
In the calculation of the order quantity in the typical arrangement method illustrated in FIG. 7, it is necessary to predict demand every time an order is placed. For example, in the periodic unfixed quantity, the average delivery quantity AV in the order quantity calculation formula (2) is a quantity calculated from the demand forecast in the future period by the number of days of LT + T from the time when the order quantity is calculated. In the first embodiment and the second embodiment, the average delivery quantity AV for the target period is calculated based on past delivery performance information and the like. In the present embodiment, when the order quantity Q is calculated, a demand prediction is performed to calculate the average delivery quantity AV.

FIG. 14 is a functional block diagram of the arrangement method selection system in the third embodiment of the present invention.
Among the configurations according to the third embodiment of the present invention, the same components as those constituting the arrangement method selection device 10 according to the first embodiment of the present invention are denoted by the same reference numerals, and description thereof is omitted. The arrangement method selection apparatus 10b according to the second embodiment includes a simulation execution unit 105b instead of the simulation execution unit 105 in the configuration of the first embodiment. The simulation execution unit 105b includes a demand prediction unit 111b.
The demand prediction unit 111b performs demand prediction by a predetermined prediction method using the sales performance information. Examples of the predetermined prediction method include a simple moving average model, a first exponential smoothing model, a Winters model, an ARIMA model, a neural network model, a linear curve approximation model, a demand prediction based on a multiple regression model, a Monte Carlo method, and the like. is there. The simulation execution unit 105b simulates the order quantity by using the demand prediction value (shipment quantity / day) predicted by the demand prediction part 111b as the value of the average delivery quantity AV.

FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing an example of an arrangement method selection process in the third embodiment of the present invention.
In the third embodiment, the rough flow of the arrangement method selection process is the same as that in FIG. However, the inventory quantity simulation method in step S114 is different. Therefore, the inventory quantity simulation in the third embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.
First, when the process of step S113 is completed, the demand prediction unit 111b selects a demand prediction method used in the current simulation from a plurality of demand prediction methods (step S301). For example, a method of selecting in order from a plurality of predetermined demand prediction methods may be used. Next, the demand prediction unit 111b performs demand prediction using the determined demand prediction method (step S302). For example, the storage unit 109 stores a demand prediction program related to each of the demand prediction methods exemplified above, such as a simple moving average model, and the demand prediction unit 111b includes the prediction method selected in step S301. The program is read out, and the amount of goods delivered in the future predetermined period is predicted using past sales record information and the like. The demand prediction unit 111b outputs the prediction result to the simulation execution unit 105b. Next, the simulation execution unit 105b performs a part order simulation (calculation of the order quantity Q) by the method described with reference to FIG. 7 (step S303). At this time, the simulation execution unit 105b uses the prediction result of the demand prediction unit 111b as the value of the average delivery quantity AV for a predetermined period.

  Next, the simulation execution unit 105b performs simulation of inventory quantity (step S304). For example, the simulation execution unit 105b generates a part receipt on the day when the average value of the arrangement lead time analyzed by the arrangement LT analysis unit 103 from the order or the arrangement lead time set by the user has elapsed, and the inventory quantity is set in step S303. Add the calculated order quantity Q. In addition, the simulation execution unit 105b generates a delivery according to the delivery date and the delivery quantity included in the delivery record information stored in the storage unit 109, and subtracts the delivery quantity from the inventory quantity. The simulation execution unit 105b outputs the simulation result and the demand prediction method used for the simulation to the cost calculation unit 106. Subsequently, the cost calculation unit 106 calculates the total cost (step S115). The cost calculation unit 106 records the demand prediction method, the simulation result, and the calculated total cost in the storage unit 109 (step S305).

  Next, the simulation execution unit 105b determines whether or not all patterns have been simulated (step S117). If all patterns have not been completed (step S117; No), the processing from step S302 is repeated. When the simulation of the inventory quantity and the calculation of the total cost in all patterns are completed (step S117; Yes), the demand prediction unit 111b determines whether or not the simulation is performed by the all demand prediction method (step S306). The processing from step S301 is repeated until the simulation with all the demand prediction methods is completed. When the simulation with all the demand prediction methods is completed (step S306; Yes), the arrangement method determination unit 107 selects a combination of the demand prediction method and the arrangement method parameters that minimize the total cost (step S118).

  In the case of this embodiment, the simulation result and the calculation result of the total cost differ depending on the demand prediction method used by the demand prediction unit 111b. Therefore, when the process of step S118 is completed, next, the arrangement method determination unit 107 compares the total cost by the simulation performed using each of the plurality of demand prediction methods prepared in advance, and the total cost is the minimum. The demand prediction method in the case of becoming is selected as the most appropriate demand prediction method (step S307). Specifically, the arrangement method determination unit 107 selects the demand prediction method in the combination of the demand prediction method selected in step S118 and the arrangement method parameters as the most appropriate demand prediction method (optimization of the demand prediction method).

  In the flowchart of FIG. 15, the AV value is determined by performing the demand prediction every time the ordering simulation is performed. However, the demand prediction is performed over the entire simulation period in advance, how many days, how many items are issued, etc. A simulation may be performed after confirming the number of shipments by day. In this way, it is not necessary to perform demand prediction every time in the simulation. Further, in the regular ordering method (periodic fixed amount, periodic unfixed amount, etc.), the demand prediction may be performed in a cycle shorter than the ordering cycle.

According to the present embodiment, a simulation result that is realistic can be obtained by performing a simulation using the order quantity based on the demand prediction. Further, according to the present embodiment, the demand prediction method can be optimized together with the selection of the arrangement method.
In addition, although the case where it combined with 1st embodiment was demonstrated as an example above, this embodiment may be combined with 2nd embodiment.

  Each process in the arrangement method selection system described above is stored in a computer-readable recording medium in the form of a program, and the program is read and executed by the computer of the arrangement method selection system. Is done. Here, the computer-readable recording medium means a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, a CD-ROM, a DVD-ROM, a semiconductor memory, or the like. Alternatively, the computer program may be distributed to the computer via a communication line, and the computer that has received the distribution may execute the program.

The program may be for realizing a part of the functions described above. Furthermore, what can implement | achieve the function mentioned above in combination with the program already recorded on the computer system, what is called a difference file (difference program) may be sufficient.
In addition, the arrangement method selection system may be configured by a single computer, or may be configured by a plurality of computers that are communicably connected.

  In addition, it is possible to appropriately replace the components in the above-described embodiments with known components without departing from the spirit of the present invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention. Note that products and parts delivered to customers are examples of articles. In addition, the article does not necessarily mean the final product, and the article described in the first to third embodiments may include a part that is incorporated into another product. In addition, the arrangement method selection apparatus according to the first embodiment to the third embodiment is not limited to a case where a manufacturer who delivers a product to a customer selects an arrangement method. It can also be used when delivering parts to an assembly factory. In the description of each embodiment, sales record information, arrangement record information, shipping record information, and inventory record information are exemplified. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and in which data table information used in each embodiment is recorded. It may be. For example, the order date and the delivery date necessary for calculating the customer request lead time may be recorded in the shipping record information.

10, 10a, 10b ... Arrangement method selection device 101 ... Setting information acquisition unit 102 ... Customer request LT analysis unit 103 ... Arrangement LT analysis unit 104 ... Order unit price analysis unit 105, 105a, 105b ... Simulation execution unit 106 ... Cost calculation unit 107 ... Arrangement method determination unit 108 ... Input / output unit 109 ... Storage unit 110a ... Customer request LT generation unit 111b ... Demand prediction unit

Claims (15)

In order to arrange goods, obtain the setting method candidates including at least one of the periodic fixed amount method, irregular amount fixed amount method, periodic unfixed amount method, and irregular unfixed amount method, and parameter setting information related to the arrangement method. A setting information acquisition unit to
Based on the acquired order quantity of the article which is calculated based on the setting information, and simulation execution unit for simulating the stock quantity of the articles by the arrangements system,
A cost calculation unit for calculating a total cost related to inventory management of the article in the simulation;
Based on the total cost calculated by the cost calculation unit, an arrangement method determination unit that determines the arrangement method and the parameter that minimize the total cost;
Bei to give a,
The simulation execution unit is based on the arrangement lead time for each article analyzed from the past arrangement record information and the customer request lead time for each article analyzed from the record information on the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past. , Excluding the item whose customer request lead time is longer than the arrangement lead time from the inventory quantity simulation target,
Arrangement system selection system. Parameters related to the arrangement scheme, Purchase Order cycle, service rate, a number of ordering lots,
The arrangement method determination unit selects a value of another parameter that minimizes the total cost when one or more of the parameters have a predetermined value.
The arrangement method selection system according to claim 1 . The arrangement scheme determining unit, the arrangement method is in the case of periodic quantitative method or periodically variable amounts method to determine the combination of parameters relating to the value the arrangements including the said ordering cycles the total cost to a minimum,
The arrangement method selection system according to claim 2 . The arrangement scheme determination unit determines a combination of the said order lot number of parameters relating to the arrangements including the value of the total cost to minimize
The arrangement method selection system according to claim 2 or claim 3 . The arrangement scheme determining unit, when the arrangement method is defined in a predetermined manner, determines a combination of the service factor parameter relating to the arrangements including the value of which the total cost to a minimum,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 2 to 4 . The cost calculation unit, as the total cost of the inventory management of the article, the cost of the storage and discard of the article, the cost of the arrangements of the article, to calculate the total cost, including the cost of the shortage,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 5 . The cost calculation unit includes, as elements used for calculating the total cost, storage cost a, inventory cost b, warehouse cost c, disposal risk d, disposal loss e, disposal cost f, unit price G, interest rate h, volume i, number α, number of goods arrangement labor cost l, transportation cost m, customs expenses n, inspection labor cost o, number of arrangements β, express arrangement cost of goods , P, express handling cost q, customer penalty cost r, opportunity loss cost s, missing item count γ,
It costs Y _z of the storage and discard of the article is calculated by the following formula,
Y _z = {(a + b + c) × (i / Σi) × g × h + (d × e) + f} × α
It costs Y _t according to arrangements of the article is calculated by the following formula,
Y _t = (l + m + n + o) × β
Costs Y _k according to said shortage is calculated by the following formula,
Y _k = (p + q + (r + s) / 2) × γ
A total cost Y related to inventory management of the article is calculated by Y = Y _z + Y _t + Y _k ,
The arrangement method selection system according to claim 6 . A storage unit for storing a cost table for storing a default value for each of the elements used for calculating the total cost;
Further comprising
The cost table stores user setting values in addition to default values for each of the elements.
The arrangement method selection system according to claim 7 . Based on past arrangements result information, arrange LT analysis unit for analyzing the arrangements lead time of each said article,
Further comprising
The simulation execution unit calculates the order quantity for each of the articles using arrangements lead time the arrangements LT analysis unit is analyzed,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 8 . A customer request LT analysis unit that analyzes a customer request lead time for each of the goods for each of the delivery destinations based on the past information about the delivery date designated by the customer in the past;
Further comprising
The simulation execution unit performs the simulation of the inventory quantity using the customer request lead time having the shortest period among the customer request lead times for each of the delivery destinations analyzed by the customer request LT analysis unit .
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 9 . Based on past arrangements result information, ordering unit price analysis unit for analyzing the ordering unit price for each of the article,
Further comprising
The order unit price analysis unit analyzes the order unit price when the order lot is destroyed, the order unit price when ordered with a shorter delivery time than usual, and the order unit price for each period,
The cost calculation unit calculates the total cost of each of the article using an order bid the order bid analyzer has analyzed,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 10 . A customer request LT generation unit that generates arbitrary customer request lead time information according to the distribution of customer request lead times based on the record information about the delivery date specified by the delivery destination;
Further comprising
The simulation performing unit is, in Order Date of the article to be included in the record information, a simulation of the stock quantity of the date on which the customer request LT generation unit is obtained by adding a customer request lead time information that is generated as a goods issue date,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 11 . A demand forecasting unit that predicts the quantity to be issued by a predetermined demand forecasting method based on the actual information about the delivery date specified by the delivery destination,
Further comprising
The simulation execution unit includes an order number for each of the article was calculated on the basis of the goods issue quantity the demand prediction unit predicts, performs the simulation,
The arrangement system selection system according to any one of claims 1 to 12 . In order to arrange goods, obtain the setting method candidates including at least one of the periodic fixed amount method, irregular amount fixed amount method, periodic unfixed amount method, and irregular unfixed amount method, and parameter setting information related to the arrangement method. And steps to
A step of, based on the acquired order quantity of the article which is calculated based on the setting information, to simulate the stock quantity of the articles by the arrangements system,
Calculating a total cost related to inventory management of the article in the simulation ;
Determining the arrangement method and the parameter that minimize the total cost based on the calculated total cost;
Have
In the step of simulating, based on the arrangement lead time for each article analyzed from the past arrangement result information and the customer request lead time for each article analyzed from the result information on the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past , Excluding the item whose customer request lead time is longer than the arrangement lead time from the inventory quantity simulation target,
Ordering method selection method. Arrange the system selection system computer,
In order to arrange goods, obtain the setting method candidates including at least one of the periodic fixed amount method, irregular amount fixed amount method, periodic unfixed amount method, and irregular unfixed amount method, and parameter setting information related to the arrangement method. Means to
Based on the acquired order quantity of the article which is calculated based on the setting information, means for simulating the stock quantity of the articles by the arrangements system,
Means for calculating a total cost related to inventory management of the article in the simulation;
Means for determining the ordering scheme and the parameters that minimize the total cost based on the calculated total cost;
To function as,
The means for simulating is based on the arrangement lead time for each article analyzed from the past arrangement result information and the customer request lead time for each article analyzed from the result information on the delivery date designated by the delivery destination in the past. The program that excludes the article whose customer request lead time is longer than the arrangement lead time from the simulation target of the inventory quantity .

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