JP2004086665A - Method and apparatus for business portfolio preparation - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and an apparatus for business portfolio preparation capable of preparing an optimum business portfolio formed by integrating resources, risks, and returns. <P>SOLUTION: This business portfolio preparation apparatus comprises a predicted return calculation part calculating a predicted return for each business by sung functions to express the relation among returns expected to be provided by resources distributedly invested to individual business, a risk evaluation part evaluating a risk expected for the individual business, and a finance evaluation index calculation part calculating, based on the total of the resources invested to the individual business and provided returns, finance evaluation indexes for integrated multiple businesses. The expected risks and returns are simulated by changing the resources invested to the multiple businesses to prepare the business port folio in which the resources, risks, and returns are integrated with each other. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

【００４４】
ここでＮは競合会社の数、Ｃ_ＥＭは性能に関する競争力、Ｃ_{ＰＲＩＣＥ}は製品の価格に関する競争力、Ｔ_ＬＯＳＳは市場投入時期に関する競争力である。これらＣ_ＥＭ、Ｃ_{ＰＲＩＣＥ}、Ｔ_ＬＯＳＳは競合他社に対する性能、価格、時間の競争力の指標であり、これから市場に出す製品やサービスが競合他社の製品に比べて、同じ競争力であると見なせる場合は１となる。すなわち製品・サービスの競争力を決める全ての要因が１の場合、市場に参入する会社で市場を均等に分け合い、個々の要因の競争力に従ってシェアの優劣が決まることを示す。
【００４５】
この式において、リソースを増加することによって、他社に比べて市場投入時期でどれくらい優位に立てるか、性能面での優位性がどれくらい確保できるか、などを分析することによってシェアを予測することができる。すなわち投入するリソースによって、性能、価格、および時間の競争力を示す指標であるＣ_ＥＭ、Ｃ_{ＰＲＩＣＥ}、およびＴ_ＬＯＳＳがどのように変化するかを計算することによって獲得できるシェアを予測することができる。
【００４６】
図１０は、この発明に係わるリスクを考慮した事業ポートフォリオ作成方法及び装置の一実施例を示す対投資効果関係図である。ここでは、４つの事業に対して、投資するリソースとそれによって獲得できるシェアの関係を示している。横軸が投資するリソース、縦軸が獲得できるシェアを示す。ここではそれぞれの事業に対して３通りの投資に対する競争力を計算し、その後それら３点を２次関数で近似している。
【００４７】
近似式はそれぞれのグラフの上に示されている。投資とシェアの関係は事業の性質によって、変化の激しいものもあればそれほど変わらないものもある。このグラフを用いて、個々の事業計画に配分されたリソースからシェアを予測することができる。
【００４８】
ただし自社競争力予測においても、市場成長率予測と同様に、リスクが存在する。例えば何らかの理由によって計画通りに事業が遂行できないリスクや、計画よりも市場リリース時期が遅れるリスク、技術的な課題が解決できないために所期性能が出せないリスク、あるいは新たに別の強力な競合会社が市場参入するリスクなどが考えられる。事業ごとに潜在するリスクを予想されるシェアの中で考慮する。自社競争力に関するリスクは、市場成長率と同様に事業ごとにばらつきを与えて評価する。
【００４９】
＜シミュレーションの説明＞
このような条件で行なったシミュレーション結果を２通りの投資配分の例で示す。ここでは、市場の成長率とシェアのばらつきが潜在するリスクによって正規分布に従うと仮定し、ある大きさの分散を持つ正規分布で表わし、モンテカルロ・シミュレーションを用いて、シミュレーションを行なった。
【００５０】
第１のケースはこの４つの事業に対して、現在と同じ額の投資を行なうと仮定したケースであり、第２のケースは、４つの事業に対するリソース配分を市場成長率や対投資効果の関係を参考にして、リソース配分を変更した事例である。
【００５１】
（ケース１）
ケース１は、この４つの事業に対して、次年度に現在と同じ額の投資を行なった場合である。この場合他の競合企業の変化もないと仮定すると市場における競争力はほぼ同等でシェア（金額ベース）も現在と変わらないと考えることができる。ただし市場規模はそれぞれの事業が対象とする成長率にしたがって変化する。
【００５２】
市場成長率に関してのばらつきは、百分率（％）で表わした市場成長率の１０分の１の標準偏差を持つ正規分布で表わす。一方、シェアのばらつきは、現状と同じ投資を考えており、リスクは比較的高くないと考えられるので、市場成長率と同様に一律に現在獲得しているシェアの１０分の１の標準偏差を持つ正規分布で表わす。
【００５３】
図１１は、ケース１の各事業の投資／回収を示す表である。それぞれの事業が対象とする市場規模は、
［次年度の市場規模］＝［今年度の市場規模］×［市場成長率］
であり、この値にシェアをかけた値が売上げ（回収）となる。したがって、ばらつきを考慮しない平均値で計算すると、次年度の４つの事業を総合した利益の予想額は、回収の総額（９０．９億円）から投資の総額（６０億円）を引いた３０．９億円となる。
【００５４】
図１２は、ケース１で、ばらつきを考慮するためにモンテカルロ・シミュレーションを実施して得られた利益のヒストグラムである。横軸で予想利益を複数の区間に分割して定め、４つの事業の市場成長率とシェアの合計８つの変数に対してそれぞれで定義した確率分布に従って乱数を発生させて計算を繰り返し、利益の計算結果が分割したそれぞれ区間に入るときの累積度数を縦軸に示している。この例ではモンテカルロ・シミュレーションで２０００回の繰り返しを行なっている。
【００５５】
図１３は図１２のヒストグラムを累積した累積分布チャートである。横軸は利益、縦軸は全体のシミュレーション回数（２０００回）に対するその利益区間の累積度数の確率を示す。
【００５６】
これらの結果から、今年度と同じ投資配分をしたときの利益の平均値やばらつきの計算をすることができる。シミュレーションの要約はケース２に関する結果の説明後に示す。
【００５７】
（ケース２）
ケース２では、４つの事業に対するリソース配分を市場成長率や対投資効果の関係を参考にして、リソース配分を変更する。
【００５８】
４つの事業を個々に見ると、現状自社が獲得しているシェアは、＃０１と＃０２の事業が対象とする製品は比較的高く、＃０３と＃０４の事業が対象とする製品は低い。また＃０１と＃０４の事業が対象とする製品の市場成長率は、＃０２と＃０３の事業が対象とする製品の市場成長率に比べて高い。さらに、図１０の対投資効果グラフからわかるように、現状の投資レベルに対する投資増分によって期待できるシェアの向上は＃０４が最も大きい。
【００５９】
したがってここでの第１の方針は、市場成長率が高いにもかかわらず現状のシェアが低い＃０４の事業により投資増を行なうことである。ただし、リソースには限りがあるから１つの事業に現状以上の投資を行なうためには他の事業の投資を減らす必要がある。ただし市場成長率、シェアともに高い＃０１の事業は現状のままで温存しておく。
【００６０】
第２の方針は、市場成長率、シェアともに低い＃０３の事業から撤退することである。＃０３の事業に投資していたリソースを＃０４の事業に再配分することでより大きな収益が期待できるという考えである。
【００６１】
さらに、第３の方針は＃０２への投資を減らすことである。＃０２の事業は現在比較的高いシェアを獲得しているが、対象としている製品の市場成長率がマイナスであることと、対投資効果グラフで見て、投資を少し減らしてもそれほどシェアの変化が大きくないことを考慮している。したがって＃０２の事業への投資の一部をさらに＃０４に増額してより大きな効果を期待する。
【００６２】
図１４は、以上のような方針で投資配分を見直したケース２の各事業の投資／回収を表わす表である。前述のように＃０３の事業から撤退して、その投資分１０億円を＃０４に増額投資している。さらに＃０２の事業に投資していた２０億円のうち５億円をさらに＃０４に増額投資している。
【００６３】
市場成長率のばらつきはケース１と同様と見なすことができるが、自社競争力に対するリスク評価はケース１と異なる。現在シェアの低い製品、すなわちもともと自社競争力が弱い製品へ多額の投資を行なうことに対しては、大きなリスクが伴う。そこで、投資を増額した＃０４の事業に対しては大幅なシェア変化を考慮して、ケース１の４倍、すなわち獲得するシェアの１０分の４の標準偏差を持つ正規分布で表わした。変化の小さな＃０１および＃０２の事業に対しては、第１のシミュレーション・ケースと第１のシミュレーション・ケースと同様にシェアの１０分の１の標準偏差を持つ正規分布で表わす。
【００６４】
平均値で見ると、投資配分を減らした事業からの回収が減少しているが、全体的に成長率の高い事業に対して集中的に投資を増額したことでシェアは大幅に向上し、４つの事業を総合した売上げ、および利益の予想額は、
売上げ＝３６．０＋１９．０＋０．０＋５４．６＝１０９．６（億円）
利益＝１０９．６−６０．０＝４９．６（億円）
となり、ケース１に比べて、１８．６（億円）の増加となっている。
【００６５】
つぎにこの仮定でモンテカルロ・シミュレーションした結果を図１５、１６に示す。図１５は、ケース２で、ばらつきを考慮するためにモンテカルロ・シミュレーションを実施して得られた利益のヒストグラムである。横軸で予想利益を複数の区間に分割して定め、＃０３を除く３つの事業の市場成長率とシェアの合計６つの変数に対してそれぞれで定義した確率分布に従って乱数を発生させて計算を繰り返し、利益の計算結果が分割したそれぞれ区間に入るときの累積度数を縦軸に示している。この例ではモンテカルロ・シミュレーションで２０００回の繰り返しを行なっている。
【００６６】
図１６は図１５のヒストグラムを累積した累積分布チャートである。横軸は利益、縦軸は全体のシミュレーション回数（２０００回）に対するその利益区間の累積度数の確率を示す。
【００６７】
（ケース１，２の要約）
図１７は、ケース１、２のモンテカルロ・シミュレーション結果を要約した表である。乱数を発生させて繰り返し計算を行なった結果であるから、必ずしも常に同じ結果が得られるとは限らない。
【００６８】
２つのケースの結果を比較すると、利益の平均値では、ケース１が９０．８（億円）、ケース２が１０９．３（億円）であり、投資配分を変更した後者のほうが、１８．５（億円）の増分となっている。ただし、ばらつきを見ると、ケース２の標準偏差は、ケース１に比べて約４倍大きくなっており、それだけリスクが高いことがわかる。
【００６９】
（財務評価）
前述の２つのケースで、４つの事業の財務評価を行なうために、ＮＰＶ（現在正味価値）とＩＲＲ（内部収益率）を計算する。ここでは簡単のため１年を会計の区切りとし、投資はその会計年度の初めに発生するとし、回収は会計年度の終わりに発生するとする。すなわちキャッシュ・フローは、初年度の投資が６０（億円）、次年度の投資が６０（億円）であり、初年度の回収が８４（億円）、次年度の回収がそれぞれのケースで得られる結果である。またＮＰＶの計算で割引率５％を仮定している。
【００７０】
図１８はケース１，２の財務評価結果要約を示す表である。利益の計算と同様にばらつきを考慮しているので、ＮＰＶ、ＩＲＲともにリスクを含む数字で、財務評価を行なうことができる。
【００７１】
ケース１，２の結果を平均値または中央値で比較すると、ケース２のほうがケース１よりもＮＰＶで約１７億円、ＩＲＲで約１２％高い値になっているが、ばらつきを表わす標準偏差は、いずれの値もケース１のほうがケース２よりも低い値になっている。　表中のＶａＲ（９５％）は、繰り返し計算で得られた値全体の９５％が入る最小値を表わしており、この値で比較すると、ケース１のほうがケース２よりもＮＰＶで約１１億円高く、ＩＲＲで約７％高くなっている。
【００７２】
以上の結果から、総じて言えば、ケース１はロー・リスク／ロー・リターンの投資配分であり、ケース２はハイ・リスク／ハイ・リターンの投資配分であると言える。どちらの投資配分が優れているかは、そのときの経営状況や経営判断などによるので一概には決定できない。
【００７３】
一般には許容できるリスクに対してなるべくリターンを大きくすることが課題であるが、本発明を用いれば現状の市場の成長率や対投資効果の予測に基づいて、作成した事業ポートフォリオを評価することができる。
【００７４】
ここでは２つのケースでの計算結果を示したが、もちろん投資配分は、この２つのケースだけに限らない。リスク・リターンを考慮して様々な投資配分を考えてシミュレーションを行なうことによって、最適の事業ポートフォリオを探索することができる。
【００７５】
またばらつきの与え方としては、このシミュレーション例で示したような市場成長率やシェアのばらつきではなく、市場規模や自社の売上げなどに直接ばらつきを与える方法もある。またばらつきを表わす確率分布も正規分布だけに限らない。予想されるリスクの性質に応じて様々な分布を考慮することができ、その場合も本発明で示した方法で、計画した事業ポートフォリオによる財務評価を行なうことが可能である。
【００７６】
【発明の効果】
以上説明したように、本発明によれば、複数の事業計画に対して投資するリソースを変更することによって、予想されるリスクとリターンのシミュレーションを行なって、リソース、リスク、およびリターンを総合した最適な事業ポートフォリオを作成することが可能となる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】この発明に係わるリスクを考慮した事業ポートフォリオ作成方法及び装置の一実施形態を示す構成図。
【図２】図１の事業評価部３−１〜３−ｎの１つを拡大して示した部分拡大図。
【図３】本実施形態に係るリスクを考慮した事業ポートフォリオ作成方法全体のフローを示したフローチャート。
【図４】個々の事業における投資／回収シミュレーションの詳細フローを示したフローチャート。
【図５】ある企業で計画している＃０１（Ａ製品を対象とする事業）から＃０４（Ｄ製品を対象とする事業）までの４つの事業と現在の状況を示す表。
【図６】従来の事業ポートフォリオを表わす製品ポートフォリオ管理図。
【図７】４つの事業の現在の事業内容を表わす表。
【図８】次年度における事業計画を投資・回収の形で入力するための表
【図９】ある製品の市場規模の変化を示したグラフ
【図１０】この発明に係るリスクを考慮した事業ポートフォリオ作成方法及び装置の一実施形態を示す対投資効果関係図。
【図１１】ケース１の各事業の投資／回収を示す表。
【図１２】ケース１でモンテカルロ・シミュレーションを実施して得られた利益のヒストグラム。
【図１３】図１２のヒストグラムを累積した累積分布チャート。
【図１４】投資配分を見直したケース２の各事業の投資／回収を表わす表。
【図１５】ケース２でモンテカルロ・シミュレーションを実施して得られた利益のヒストグラム。
【図１６】図１５のヒストグラムを累積した累積分布チャート。
【図１７】ケース１、２のモンテカルロ・シミュレーション結果を要約した表。
【図１８】ケース１，２の財務評価結果要約を示す表。
【符号の説明】
１　企業のリソース
２　リソース配分入力部
３−１〜３−ｎ　事業評価部
４　財務評価指標計算部
５　シミュレーション結果表示部
６　事業ｉへのリソース配分
７　事業ｉのリスク／リターン
８　事業ｉの予想リターン計算部
９　事業ｉのリスク評価部
１０　事業ｉの市場分析部
１１　事業ｉの自社競争力分析部
１２　事業ｉの対投資効果分析部
１３　事業ｉ対象製品の市場データベース
１４　事業ｉ対象製品に使用される技術のデータベース
１５　事業ｉ対象製品の競合他社ベンチマークデータベース
４０　個別事業への投資リソース
４１　市場分析部
４２　自社競争力分析部
４３　リスク分析部
４４　対投資効果分析部
４５　概事業からのリスク／リターン[0001]
TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a business portfolio creation method and apparatus for determining investment distribution of a plurality of businesses in a business activity of a company.
[0002]
[Prior art]
Portfolio is an important concept for asset management, and various methods of optimizing investment (resource) and return (return) and minimizing risk are proposed to effectively use important assets of individuals and organizations. Have been.
[0003]
Compared with such a portfolio for property formation, a portfolio for deciding investment in a plurality of business plans of a company referred to in the present invention involves an investor (management of a company) involved in management of an invested business. Is a major difference. While the portfolio for property formation is inherently passive and "reactive", the business portfolio enhances the value of the investee itself by acting "proactively" on the invested business Has the advantage of being able to
[0004]
However, in creating a business portfolio, unlike portfolios for property formation, it is difficult to monitor portfolio values and systematic risk management has not been established, so there is no sufficient predictive analysis and past success experiences In many cases, decisions were made based on power relationships specific to companies and companies.
[0005]
One basis for the investment distribution of the business portfolio is a product portfolio management chart shown in FIG. The Product Portfolio Chart is proposed by the Boston Consulting Group in the United States, where the vertical axis represents market growth and the horizontal axis represents your market share. By taking into account the market growth rates and shares of the products you are dealing with in your current business, you can see where those products are located in this chart.
[0006]
Products with high market growth and low market share are in the first quadrant, products with high market growth and high market share are in the second quadrant, products with low market growth and high market share are in the third quadrant, and both market growth and market share are low The product is located in the fourth quadrant. The Boston Consulting Group names the first four quadrants "Problem Children,""Stars,""CashCows," and "Dogs." I have.
[0007]
In order to increase profitability for a company, it is said that in general, it is necessary to invest more in products in the area of “problem children” with a high market growth rate and a low market share to increase its competitiveness. I have. However, product areas that are usually expected to have a high market growth rate are subject to rapid change, and are susceptible to changes in economic conditions and technological progress. Furthermore, it is difficult to predict how investment will change their competitiveness, as venture companies and new companies are expected to enter high-growth areas.
[0008]
In addition, companies have limited resources. Even if the market growth rate is not so high, if there is a business that is currently generating a certain amount of profit, how much of the funds obtained from that business should be invested in the business with a high market growth rate is a risk The decision must be made in accordance with the relationship between return and return, and it is difficult to determine the optimal resource allocation in advance.
[0009]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
The present invention has been made in order to solve the above-mentioned drawbacks. At the planning stage of a portfolio, by changing resources invested in a plurality of businesses, a simulation of expected risks and returns is carried out. To provide a business portfolio creation method and device that takes into account a risk, which can create an optimal business portfolio in which risk, risk, and return are integrated.
[0010]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
In order to solve the above-described problems, the present invention provides a business portfolio creation device that creates a business portfolio that determines investment distribution of a plurality of businesses, and is expected to be obtained by resources allocated and invested in individual businesses. An expected return calculation unit that calculates an expected return for each individual business using a function that represents a relationship between returns to be performed, a risk evaluation unit that evaluates an expected risk for the individual business, and the individual business Based on the total of the resources and the obtained return invested in, comprising a financial evaluation index calculation unit that calculates a financial evaluation index that integrates a plurality of businesses, by changing the resources invested in the plurality of businesses, Simulate expected risks and returns to create a business portfolio that combines resources, risks and returns. To provide a business portfolio creation device, characterized in that to create a folio.
[0011]
Further, according to the present invention, there is provided a business portfolio creation method for creating a business portfolio for determining investment distribution of a plurality of businesses, wherein a return relationship expected to be obtained by resources allocated and invested in individual businesses is defined. Calculate the expected return for each individual business using a function that represents, evaluate the expected risk for the individual business, and, based on the sum of the resources invested in the individual business and the available return, Calculate financial metrics for the business and simulate expected risks and returns by changing the resources invested in the plurality of businesses to create a business portfolio combining resources, risks and returns And also provides a business portfolio creation method characterized by creating a business portfolio.
[0012]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.
[0013]
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing an embodiment of a business portfolio creation method and apparatus in consideration of a risk according to the present invention. In this embodiment, a resource allocation input unit 2 allocates resources 1 of a company to a plurality of businesses (business 1 to business n) and invests to simulate the resources. In the business evaluation units 3-1 to 3-n of the individual business, based on market analysis and benchmark analysis of products targeted by the business, the income (return) obtained from the invested resources and the business The expected risk is predicted by the expected return calculation unit and the risk evaluation unit, respectively. Then, the results of the individual business plans are integrated, the overall financial evaluation is performed by the financial evaluation index calculation unit 4, and the evaluation result is displayed by the simulation result display unit 5. The management of the company can see the simulation result and examine the validity of the resource allocation.
[0014]
FIG. 2 is a partially enlarged view showing one of the business evaluation units 3-1 to 3-n in each business shown in FIG.
[0015]
Refer to the market database 13 of the products covered by the business, the database 14 of the technologies of the products covered by the business, and the database 15 of the competitor benchmarks of the products covered by the business in order to determine risks and returns in each business. To conduct market analysis, in-house competitiveness analysis and investment effect analysis.
[0016]
The market analysis unit 10 predicts future market trends based on data on the current and past market scales. For example, it can be regarded as a product field such as a home appliance such as a television or an air conditioner or a mature product, and a relatively stable market size is maintained. In new fields such as IT (information technology) equipment and network services, demand is expected to increase further in the future, so a large growth rate is expected. In addition, the market for products that are being replaced by new products such as word processors and personal computers, such as typewriters, tends to shrink, and the growth rate tends to decline to zero or negative. In this way, the market analysis department considers how large the target products and services are in the current market, and what the future, that is, the situation when the products and services will be introduced to the market by the business plan in the future. Analyze what will be.
[0017]
The in-house competitiveness analysis unit 11 analyzes how much the in-house competitiveness is in the market. Competitiveness is usually quantified by the market share of the company in the field. If your company is more competitive than your competitors in the same product area, your market share will be higher and vice versa. The competitiveness of your products and services is based on comparisons with similar products and services from competing companies.
[0018]
There are various factors that determine the competitiveness of products and services. Usually, three factors, time, cost and performance, have the greatest impact on competitiveness. For example, the same performance will increase the competitiveness of cheaper products and services. At the same price, high-performance products and services are more competitive. In the case of new products that have functions that are not on the market before, companies that put them on the market early will gain a large share. In addition, marketing and advertising capabilities also affect product competitiveness. The in-house competitiveness analysis unit 11 analyzes the competitiveness of products and services in the market targeted by the business as compared with other companies, and further analyzes various factors that determine the competitiveness. Perform
[0019]
The investment effect analysis unit 12 analyzes the effect on resources allocated for investment in the business based on the above-described market analysis result and the company competitiveness analysis result. The competitiveness of a business usually depends on the amount of resources invested in the business. Analyze how much more you invest in people, goods and money you are currently investing in your business to increase your competitiveness or, conversely, decrease it by reducing it.
[0020]
From the results of market analysis, in-house competitiveness analysis, and return on investment analysis for each business, calculate the expected return on the resources actually invested in the business, and at the same time evaluate the risks in the plan.
[0021]
The expected return calculation unit 8 calculates a return obtained by executing the business from the relationship between the market size and the market share of the product. Market size is estimated based on the market size at which products and services developed by the business are released to the market. Market share is estimated by analyzing competitiveness with competitors.
[0022]
However, since these predictions involve risks, the risk evaluation unit 9 evaluates the risks. Risk has two dimensions: market growth and in-house competitiveness. The market is moving at a rapid pace, and even in the product field, which is expected to grow significantly according to current forecasts, there are many cases where there are large fluctuations due to changes in economic and social conditions. On the other hand, in terms of in-house competitiveness, increasing the investment often does not always produce the expected effects. Furthermore, new entrants may reduce their competitiveness. The risk evaluation section evaluates the risk in these two aspects.
[0023]
The flow of the business portfolio creation method according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to the flowcharts of FIGS.
[0024]
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a flow of the entire business portfolio creation method according to the present embodiment. The assets and funds (resources) held by the company are distributed to a plurality of businesses (1 to n). Based on the resources invested in each business, calculate the return (return) and risk predicted by the investment / recovery model of each business. The collection (return) and risk calculated individually are combined to calculate the collection and risk of multiple business plans as a whole, and the overall financial evaluation is performed. If the results are satisfactory, the plan is put into practice. If not satisfied, the resource allocation is reviewed again and a simulation is performed to finally determine the optimal resource allocation.
[0025]
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a detailed flow of the investment / recovery simulation in each business. The market analysis unit 41 analyzes the current market size of products and services targeted by the business and the trends (factors of market change) of the economy and new technologies that will affect the market size in the future, and analyzes the market growth rate. Predict. If the product or service targeted by the business plan is a new one that is not in the current market, it is inferred from similar products and services.
[0026]
The in-house competitiveness analysis unit 42 analyzes the current market share of the product or service targeted by the business plan and the share factors such as the performance of the product or service, time to market, and cost. The investment effect analysis unit analyzes how these share factors change by changing the investment, and calculates the expected acquisition market share.
[0027]
The risk analysis unit 43 analyzes a market prediction risk and a prediction risk of a change in competitiveness. Market growth rates are heavily influenced by economic trends and new technology trends, but market changes are rapid and are not always as expected. On the other hand, in terms of in-house competitiveness, there is a great risk in predicting market share for investment change. These risks are analyzed and reflected in the expected market size and expected gained share.
[0028]
In order to create an optimal portfolio of multiple business plans as a whole, in this way, the expected market size and expected share acquired in the individual business plans obtained and the risks inherent in them are comprehensively evaluated, and individual business plans are evaluated. The risk / return 45 from the business on the investment resources 40 of the business.
[0029]
Hereinafter, specific application examples according to the present invention will be described.
FIG. 5 is a table showing four businesses planned from # 01 (business for product A) to # 04 (business for product D) and the current situation. Based on the relationship between the market growth rates and the shares in these four businesses, businesses # 1 to # 4 are shown in the product portfolio management chart showing the conventional business portfolio shown in FIG. "," Losing dog ", and" problem child ".
[0030]
FIG. 7 is a table showing the current business contents of each of these four businesses. The first column of the table is the business, the second column is the amount of investment in each business, the third column is the market size of the products covered by the business, and the fourth column is the current acquisition of the product by the company. Share, the fifth column shows the company's own sales of the product, and the sixth column shows the market growth rate of the product area.
[0031]
Here, the share represents a share based on the amount of money, and the sales in the fifth column are given by the product of the market size in the third column and the share in the fourth column. In addition, although the market growth rate in the sixth column differs depending on the product, whether it is considered over a long period or a short period, for example, a market calculated based on a comparison between one year ago and this year, or a change in market performance over the past several years This is a number calculated based on the change in scale.
[0032]
In this example, the product (A to D) market sizes targeted by the four businesses are all equal to 12 billion yen. We currently invest 2 billion yen, 2 billion yen, 1 billion yen, and 1 billion yen in businesses # 1 to # 4, respectively, and have 25%, 25%, 10%, and 10% shares, respectively. Have earned. The sales obtained in each business are the market size multiplied by the market share, that is, 3 billion yen, 3 billion yen, 1.2 billion yen, and 1.2 billion yen, respectively. Market growth rates for the four additional businesses are + 20%, -5%, -10%, and + 30%, respectively.
[0033]
Based on this situation, a plan for each of the four projects shown in FIG. FIG. 8 shows a table for inputting a business plan for the next fiscal year in the form of investment and recovery. The first column of the table is the business, the second column is the expected market growth rate, and the third column is the future market calculated from the market size shown in the third column of FIG. 7 and the market growth rate in the second column. The fourth column shows the investment amount, the fifth column shows the share, and the sixth column shows the sales of the company represented by the product of the market size in the third column and the share in the fifth column.
[0034]
As the market growth rate in the second column of this table, the growth rate of the market (current growth rate) shown in the fifth column of the table of FIG. 7 is basically used. However, these numbers are likely to change depending on future economic and technological trends, so it is necessary to assume variations. In this table, it is expressed as “± α”.
[0035]
The market size in the third column indicates the market size when the product is released to the market. The market size in the second column and the current market size shown in the third column in the table of FIG. Is calculated. However, because the market growth rate is assumed to vary, the market size also varies. In this table, this variation is similarly expressed as “± α”. The investment amount in the fourth column has not been entered yet, as it will be decided. Companies have limited resources. Here, the total of the resources is represented by ΔX. The issue is how to allocate these numbers to each business.
[0036]
Since the share in the fifth column changes according to the investment amount input in the fourth column, it is expressed as a function F (X) of the investment X. This function represents the return on investment. Naturally, this function differs depending on the business.
[0037]
The sales in the sixth column are determined by the market size in the third column and the share in the fifth column. In the case of value-based shares, sales are expressed as the product of market size and market share.
[0038]
In the business portfolio creation method and apparatus according to the present embodiment that takes into account risks, it is necessary to perform a factor analysis of market changes such as economic forecasts and new technology trends, and to predict market changes with high accuracy.
[0039]
One technique for this prediction is shown. FIG. 9 is a graph showing a change in the market size of a certain product. The vertical axis represents the market size, and the horizontal axis represents the year. In this example, the market size has steadily increased over the past few years. One year later, the market growth rate can be predicted from changes in the past market size. In this example, the past change in the market size is approximated by linear approximation, but linear approximation, polynomial approximation, power approximation, exponential approximation, or the like can be considered according to the nature of the data.
[0040]
However, there is an error in the growth rate that can be predicted by such approximation. In particular, for products and services in fast-growing fields, there is a high risk that sudden changes in the economy will cause the market to deviate significantly from the average of the conventional changes in market size. Therefore, such a risk may be considered in the expected market growth rate.
[0041]
Furthermore, in the business portfolio creation method and apparatus in consideration of the risk according to the present embodiment, it is necessary to predict with high precision the resources to be invested in each business and the change in the share that can be obtained thereby. In this in-house competitiveness analysis, the resources to be actually invested are input based on the analysis result of how the in-house competitiveness changes depending on the resources invested in the business plan. Of course, the resources available for investment are limited, so it is not possible to make an inexhaustible investment in every business. It is necessary to allocate resources to individual business plans while satisfying resource constraints.
[0042]
One prediction formula for estimating the share of investment resources is shown.
[0043]
(Equation 1)

[0044]
Where N is the number of competitors, C _EM Is the competitiveness of performance, C _PRICE Is the price competitiveness of the product, T _LOSS Is the competitiveness regarding the time to market. These C _EM , C _PRICE , T _LOSS Is a measure of the competitiveness of performance, price, and time with respect to competitors, and is 1 when products and services to be marketed can be regarded as having the same competitiveness as competitors' products. In other words, if all the factors that determine the competitiveness of products and services are 1, it indicates that the companies that enter the market share the market equally, and the share is determined according to the competitiveness of each factor.
[0045]
In this formula, you can predict the market share by analyzing resources, such as how much resources you can increase and how you can gain an advantage in terms of time to market compared to other companies. . In other words, C is an index indicating the competitiveness of performance, price, and time depending on the resources to be input. _EM , C _PRICE , And T _LOSS You can predict the share that you can obtain by calculating how changes in
[0046]
FIG. 10 is an investment effect relation diagram showing one embodiment of a business portfolio creation method and apparatus in consideration of a risk according to the present invention. Here, the relationship between the resources to be invested and the shares that can be obtained with the four businesses is shown. The horizontal axis shows the resources to invest, and the vertical axis shows the shares that can be obtained. Here, the competitiveness for three types of investment is calculated for each business, and then these three points are approximated by a quadratic function.
[0047]
The approximate expression is shown above each graph. Depending on the nature of the business, the relationship between investment and share can be fast-changing, or less so. Using this graph, the share can be predicted from the resources allocated to each business plan.
[0048]
However, there are risks in the company's competitiveness forecast as well as the market growth rate forecast. For example, the risk that the business cannot be carried out as planned for any reason, the risk that the market will be released later than planned, the risk that the technical issues can not be solved, and the expected performance will not be achieved, or another strong competitor Could enter the market. Consider the potential risks of each business in the expected share. Risks related to the company's competitiveness are evaluated in a manner that varies from business to business, similar to market growth rates.
[0049]
<Description of simulation>
Simulation results performed under such conditions are shown in two examples of investment distribution. Here, it is assumed that the market growth rate and the variance of the market share follow a normal distribution depending on the potential risk, and are represented by a normal distribution having a variance of a certain size, and the simulation is performed using the Monte Carlo simulation.
[0050]
The first case is based on the assumption that the same amount of investment will be made in these four businesses as it is now. The second case is to allocate resources to the four businesses based on the relationship between the market growth rate and the return on investment. This is an example in which the resource allocation is changed with reference to FIG.
[0051]
(Case 1)
Case 1 is a case where the same amount of investment is made in the next fiscal year in these four businesses. In this case, assuming that there is no change in other competitors, it can be considered that the competitiveness in the market is almost the same and the share (on a monetary basis) is not different from the present. However, the size of the market changes according to the growth rate targeted by each business.
[0052]
The variation with respect to the market growth rate is represented by a normal distribution having a standard deviation of 1/10 of the market growth rate expressed as a percentage (%). On the other hand, the variation in the share is considered to be the same as the current investment and the risk is not relatively high. Therefore, like the market growth rate, the standard deviation of 1/10 of the currently acquired share is uniformly calculated. It is represented by a normal distribution.
[0053]
FIG. 11 is a table showing investment / recovery of each business in Case 1. The market size that each business targets is
[Market size of next year] = [Market size of this year] x [Market growth rate]
The value obtained by multiplying this value by the share is the sales (collection). Therefore, when calculated using an average value that does not take account of variations, the expected amount of profit for the four businesses in the next fiscal year is calculated by subtracting the total investment (6.0 billion yen) from the total recovery (9.09 billion yen). 900 million yen.
[0054]
FIG. 12 is a histogram of profit obtained by performing a Monte Carlo simulation to consider variation in case 1. The expected profit is divided into multiple sections along the horizontal axis, and the calculation is repeated by generating random numbers according to the probability distribution defined for each of the eight variables of the market growth rate and share of the four businesses, and repeating the calculation. The cumulative frequency when the calculation result enters each of the divided sections is shown on the vertical axis. In this example, 2,000 repetitions are performed by Monte Carlo simulation.
[0055]
FIG. 13 is a cumulative distribution chart obtained by accumulating the histograms of FIG. The horizontal axis represents profit, and the vertical axis represents the probability of the cumulative frequency of the profit section with respect to the total number of simulations (2000).
[0056]
From these results, it is possible to calculate the average value and dispersion of profits when the same investment distribution is made this year. A summary of the simulation follows the explanation of the results for Case 2.
[0057]
(Case 2)
In Case 2, the resource allocation for the four businesses is changed with reference to the relationship between the market growth rate and the effect on investment.
[0058]
Looking at the four businesses individually, the company's current market share is relatively high for products # 01 and # 02, and low for products # 03 and # 04. . The market growth rates of the products targeted by the businesses # 01 and # 04 are higher than the market growth rates of the products targeted by the businesses # 02 and # 03. Furthermore, as can be seen from the investment effect graph of FIG. 10, # 04 is the largest improvement in the share that can be expected due to the increase in investment relative to the current investment level.
[0059]
Therefore, the first policy here is to increase investment by the # 04 business whose current market share is low despite the high market growth rate. However, because resources are limited, it is necessary to reduce investment in other businesses in order to invest more in one business than the current situation. However, the # 01 business, which has both high market growth rate and market share, will be kept as it is.
[0060]
The second policy is to withdraw from the # 03 business, which has low market growth and share. The idea is that greater profits can be expected by redistributing resources invested in the # 03 business to the # 04 business.
[0061]
Further, a third policy is to reduce investment in # 02. The # 02 business currently has a relatively high market share, but the market growth rate of the target product is negative, and the investment return graph shows that even if the investment is slightly reduced, the market share changes so much Is not large. Therefore, it is expected that a part of the investment in the business of # 02 will be further increased to # 04 and a greater effect will be obtained.
[0062]
FIG. 14 is a table showing the investment / recovery of each business in Case 2 in which the investment distribution is reviewed according to the above policy. As mentioned above, the company withdrew from the # 03 business and invested 1 billion yen in # 04 in # 04. In addition, of the ¥ 2 billion invested in the # 02 business, ¥ 500 million has been further invested in # 04.
[0063]
Variations in market growth rates can be considered the same as in Case 1, but the risk assessment for their own competitiveness differs from Case 1. Significant risks are involved in investing heavily in products that currently have a low market share, that is, products that are inherently less competitive. Therefore, in consideration of a large change in the share of the business of # 04, the investment was increased, and it was represented by a normal distribution having a standard deviation of four times of the case 1, that is, four tenths of the acquired share. The # 01 and # 02 businesses with small changes are represented by the first simulation case and a normal distribution having a standard deviation of 1/10 of the share as in the first simulation case.
[0064]
On average, the return from businesses with reduced investment allocations has declined, but the share has increased significantly due to increased investment in businesses with high growth rates overall. The combined sales and profit estimates for the two businesses are:
Sales = 36.0 + 19.0 + 0.0 + 54.6 = 109.6 (100 million yen)
Profit = 109.6-60.0 = 49.6 (100 million yen)
This is an increase of 18.6 (100 million yen) compared to Case 1.
[0065]
Next, the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on this assumption are shown in FIGS. FIG. 15 is a histogram of profit obtained by performing a Monte Carlo simulation to consider variation in case 2. The expected profit is divided into multiple sections along the horizontal axis, and random numbers are generated according to the probability distributions defined for each of the six variables of market growth rate and market share of the three businesses except for # 03. Repeatedly, the cumulative frequency when the profit calculation result enters each of the divided sections is shown on the vertical axis. In this example, 2,000 repetitions are performed by Monte Carlo simulation.
[0066]
FIG. 16 is a cumulative distribution chart obtained by accumulating the histograms of FIG. The horizontal axis represents profit, and the vertical axis represents the probability of the cumulative frequency of the profit section with respect to the total number of simulations (2000).
[0067]
(Summary of Cases 1 and 2)
FIG. 17 is a table summarizing the Monte Carlo simulation results of Cases 1 and 2. Since the result is a result of repeated calculation by generating a random number, the same result is not always obtained.
[0068]
Comparing the results of the two cases, the average profit is 90.8 (100 million yen) for Case 1 and 109.3 (100 million yen) for Case 2, and the latter with the investment allocation changed is 18. 5 (billion yen). However, looking at the variation, it can be seen that the standard deviation of case 2 is about four times larger than that of case 1 and the risk is higher accordingly.
[0069]
(Financial evaluation)
In the two cases described above, NPV (current net value) and IRR (internal rate of return) are calculated to make a financial assessment of the four businesses. Here, for the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that one year is the accounting break, investment occurs at the beginning of the fiscal year, and payback occurs at the end of the fiscal year. In other words, the cash flow is 60 (100 million yen) for investment in the first year, 60 (100 million yen) for the next year, recovery in the first year is 84 (100 million yen), and recovery in the next year is in each case. This is the result obtained. Also, a discount rate of 5% is assumed in the calculation of NPV.
[0070]
FIG. 18 is a table showing a summary of the financial evaluation results of Cases 1 and 2. Since the variability is taken into account in the same manner as in the calculation of the profit, the financial evaluation can be performed using figures including risk for both NPV and IRR.
[0071]
Comparing the results of Cases 1 and 2 with the mean or median, Case 2 is higher than Case 1 in NPV by about 1.7 billion yen and IRR by about 12%. , All of the values are lower in case 1 than in case 2. VaR (95%) in the table represents the minimum value that fits 95% of the total value obtained by repeated calculation. Comparing these values, Case 1 has an NPV of about 1.1 billion yen compared to Case 2 High, about 7% higher in IRR.
[0072]
From the above results, it can be generally said that Case 1 is a low risk / low return investment allocation, and Case 2 is a high risk / high return investment allocation. Which one of the investment distributions is more excellent can not be determined unconditionally because it depends on the business situation and business judgment at that time.
[0073]
In general, the challenge is to maximize the return on acceptable risk, but using the present invention, it is possible to evaluate the created business portfolio based on the current market growth rate and the expected return on investment. it can.
[0074]
Although the calculation results in two cases are shown here, the investment distribution is not limited to these two cases. An optimal business portfolio can be searched for by performing a simulation while considering various investment distributions in consideration of risk / return.
[0075]
As a method of giving the variation, there is a method of giving the variation directly to the market size, the sales of the company, and the like, instead of the variation in the market growth rate and the share as shown in the simulation example. Further, the probability distribution representing the variation is not limited to the normal distribution. Various distributions can be taken into account depending on the nature of the expected risks, and in such a case, it is possible to carry out a financial evaluation based on the planned business portfolio by the method described in the present invention.
[0076]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, by simulating expected risks and returns by changing resources invested in a plurality of business plans, an optimal Business portfolio can be created.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing an embodiment of a business portfolio creation method and apparatus in consideration of a risk according to the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a partially enlarged view showing one of business evaluation units 3-1 to 3-n in FIG. 1 in an enlarged manner.
FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a flow of an entire business portfolio creation method in consideration of a risk according to the embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a detailed flow of investment / recovery simulation in each business.
FIG. 5 is a table showing four business plans from # 01 (business for product A) to # 04 (business for product D) planned by a certain company and the current situation.
FIG. 6 is a product portfolio management chart showing a conventional business portfolio.
FIG. 7 is a table showing current business contents of four businesses.
Fig. 8 Table for inputting the business plan for the next fiscal year in the form of investment and recovery
FIG. 9 is a graph showing a change in market size of a certain product.
FIG. 10 is an investment effect relationship diagram showing one embodiment of a business portfolio creation method and apparatus in consideration of a risk according to the present invention.
FIG. 11 is a table showing investment / recovery of each business in case 1;
FIG. 12 is a histogram of profits obtained by performing a Monte Carlo simulation in Case 1;
13 is a cumulative distribution chart obtained by accumulating the histogram of FIG.
FIG. 14 is a table showing investment / recovery of each business in case 2 in which investment distribution has been reviewed.
FIG. 15 is a histogram of profits obtained by performing a Monte Carlo simulation in Case 2;
16 is a cumulative distribution chart obtained by accumulating the histogram of FIG.
FIG. 17 is a table summarizing Monte Carlo simulation results of Cases 1 and 2;
FIG. 18 is a table showing a summary of financial evaluation results of Cases 1 and 2;
[Explanation of symbols]
1. Company resources
2 Resource allocation input section
3-1-3-n Business Evaluation Department
4 Financial evaluation index calculation section
5 Simulation result display section
6 Resource allocation to business i
7. Risks / Returns for Business i
8 Expected Return Calculator for Business i
9 Business i risk assessment department
10 Market Analysis Department of Business i
11 In-house Competitiveness Analysis Department of Business i
12 Investment Effect Analysis Department for Business i
13 Market database of products targeted for business i
14 Database of technologies used for products targeted for business i
15 Competitor benchmark database for products targeted for business i
40 Investment Resources for Individual Business
41 Market Analysis Department
42 In-house Competitiveness Analysis Department
43 Risk Analysis Department
44 Investment Effect Analysis Department
45 Business Risks / Returns

Claims (10)

A business portfolio creation device for creating a business portfolio for determining investment distribution of a plurality of businesses,
An expected return calculation unit that calculates an expected return for each individual business using a function that represents a relationship between returns that are expected to be obtained by resources allocated and invested in individual businesses,
A risk evaluation unit that evaluates an expected risk for the individual business,
A financial evaluation index calculation unit that calculates a financial evaluation index that integrates a plurality of businesses based on the total of the resources and the returns obtained by investing in the individual business,
Simulating expected risks and returns by changing resources invested in the plurality of businesses to create a business portfolio integrating resources, risks, and returns; apparatus. A market analysis unit for predicting the market size of the business based on market trends,
It further includes an investment effectiveness analysis unit that predicts the share that the company can acquire in that market in relation to resources.
2. The business portfolio creation device according to claim 1, wherein the predicted return is calculated by integrating the predicted market size and the predicted share. 3. The method according to claim 2, wherein a risk implicit in at least one of the market size of the business and the market share that the company can acquire in the market is given by a probability distribution according to the uncertainty and size of the risk. Business portfolio creation device. Self-acquisition by the start of sales in the market of products and services generated by the business, the performance of products and services sold to the market by competitors, and the price of products and services sold to the market by competitors The business portfolio creation device according to claim 3, wherein a share that can be made is predicted. 2. The financial evaluation index is at least one of a profit obtained by integrating a plurality of businesses, NPV (current net value), IRR (internal rate of return), and VaR (value at risk). The business portfolio creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4. A business portfolio creation method for creating a business portfolio that determines investment distribution of a plurality of businesses,
Calculating expected returns for each individual business using a function that represents the relationship of returns expected to be obtained by resources allocated and invested in the individual businesses,
Assess the expected risks to the individual business,
Based on the resources invested in the individual business and the sum of the obtained returns, calculate a financial evaluation index that integrates multiple businesses,
Simulating expected risks and returns by changing resources invested in the plurality of businesses to create a business portfolio integrating resources, risks, and returns; Method. Forecasting the market size of the business based on market trends,
Predict the share that your company can gain in that market in relation to resources,
7. The business portfolio creation method according to claim 6, wherein the predicted return is calculated by integrating the predicted market size and the predicted market share. 8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the potential risk in at least one of the market size of the business and the share that the company can acquire in the market is given by a probability distribution according to the uncertainty and magnitude of the risk. How to create a business portfolio. Self-acquisition by the start of sales in the market of products and services generated by the business, the performance of products and services sold to the market by competitors, and the price of products and services sold to the market by competitors The business portfolio creation device according to claim 7, wherein the available share is predicted. 10. The financial evaluation index is at least one of an integrated profit of a plurality of businesses, NPV (current net value), IRR (internal rate of return), and VaR (value at risk). The business portfolio creation method according to any one of the above.

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