JP2003296558A - Method, device and program for optimally distributing business investment and portable recording medium - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and a device for objectively and automatically distributing investment of each business. <P>SOLUTION: A primary factor evaluating function 121 obtains the influence of each primary factor inside of a memory device 11 to an object business. A business value evaluating function 122 obtains NPV, a risk and a return of the object business on the basis of a financial exponent of the object business read from the memory device. A portfolio structuring function 123 obtains investment distribution to the object business on the basis of a risk and a return. A confirming function 124 outputs the decided investment distribution for display. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and an apparatus for analyzing the risk and return of investment effect in each business in one company or in a plurality of companies to be consolidated and performing an optimal business investment allocation. .

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art The most widely used method for determining business investment allocation within a company is PPM (Produ
ct Portfolio Management) and its improvement methods.

[0003] PPM is a method of analyzing the ideal way of business and company-wide portfolio from the two factors of market growth rate and market share by using cash flow as a cut. Figure 11
Shows a conceptual diagram of PPM.

As shown in FIG. 11, in the PPM, the vertical axis represents the market growth rate (growth rate relative to the GDP growth rate), and the horizontal axis represents the relative market share of the company with respect to the largest competitor (own share / competition). 2 x 2 formed by the opponent's share)
, And each business is positioned on this matrix.

Each quadrant on the matrix is named. The part where both the market growth rate and market share are high is "star", and the part where the market growth rate is low and market share is high is "gold". No naru tree (cash co
w) ”, the part where the market growth rate is high and the market share is low is called“ problem ”, and the part where both the market growth rate and the market share are low are called“ dogs ”. It is generally said that it is necessary to withdraw from the underdog business and invest in the flower business.

Although it is different from the investment allocation problem, the DCF (Discounted Cash-Flo
w) A method called analysis (also called NPV analysis) is generally used. DCF analysis uses NPV (Net Pres
ent Value: present value) is an index that discounts the cash flow under the future fixed scenario to the present value by interest rate.

Further, in recent years, there are methods such as dynamic DCF analysis, decision analysis and real option method as a method for quantifying the future uncertain business environment and management judgment. Each of these is a method in which the average value of cash flows in a plurality of scenarios is set as NPV, and although there are great differences in the specific calculation methods, they are conceptually the same.

FIG. 12 is a conceptual diagram for explaining the dynamic DCF and the real option. In the decision tree illustrated in FIG. 12, seven scenarios are prepared. The weighted average value considering the realization probabilities of the seven scenarios is the NPV of the business, and scenario 5 is normal DC.
It matches the NPV of the F method (fixed scenario).

In any of the dynamic DCF analysis, the decision analysis, and the real option method, generally, if the NPV is a positive business, it is invested, and if it is a negative business, it is not invested. In addition, all of them are used only as investment criteria for one business.

The NPV is the total of the annual income (net cash flow before deduction of capital costs such as interest rates) earned by the project, minus the investment amount. All amounts are converted to present value. Formula (1) shows a general formula for obtaining NPV.

[0011]

[Equation 1]

Although different from business investment allocation, there is a stock investment allocation (portfolio theory) method as a method for handling a similar allocation problem. Portfolio theory is a method that can determine the optimal investment allocation that gives the minimum risk at any return, provided that the risks and returns of individual stocks can be assumed.

Consider, for example, the case of investing in stocks of an umbrella store and an ice cream store. If the summer is sunny and hot, the ice cream shop will be profitable, but the umbrella shop will not. On the contrary, if it keeps raining and cold days continue, the umbrella store will be profitable, but the ice cream store will not. In this case, it is possible to obtain a stable return regardless of weather risks by investing in both the ice cream store and the umbrella store.

FIG. 13 is a conceptual diagram for explaining the optimal stock investment allocation based on the portfolio theory. The basic concept of portfolio theory will be explained in detail using this figure. In the figure, it is assumed that the risks and returns of the stocks A to C can be assumed. Here, risk is the variance of stock price movements, and return is the rate of price increase. These are usually the variances of stock prices over the past few years and the average rate of increase, as the future conditions are unknown.

In the figure, if the risk and return when the stock A is owned alone is point A, and the risk and return when the stock B is owned alone is point B, the stock A and the stock B are shown.
The risk and the return when owning x at the ratio of xa: xb are always one point on the arc AB101 in the figure, and the risk is smaller than when the stock A and the stock B are individually owned. If the risk and return of owning stock C alone is point C, then stock A, stock B, and stock C are xa: x
The risk and return when owning in the ratio of b: xc is arc AB101, arc BC102, arc CD103, arc D
It is one point on the plane 105 surrounded by A104. The optimum solution that minimizes the risk at this time is point D.

Generally, the stock investment allocation is a problem to find the allocation that minimizes the objective function (risk) under the following constraint conditions (more than an arbitrary return). Allocation) is required. Of course, the optimum solution under various conditions can be obtained by changing the following objective function and constraint equation. In addition to the quadratic programming method, various optimization methods such as tab search and GA (genetic algorithm) can be applied.

As the equation (2), the equation of the objective function used in the portfolio theory is shown.

[0018]

[Equation 2]

Although it is different from the investment allocation of the business, one of the risk management indexes of stocks used in financial institutions is VaR (value at risk). VaR holds 1 at the time when the stock held is at one point in the future (next day, next month, etc.)
It is the worst stock price that will occur with a probability of%. In addition to stock prices, this index is also used as a risk management index for profits due to exchange fluctuations in multinational companies. VaR is described in detail in the August 1995 issue of Securities Journal.

[0020]

When the corporate manager decides the investment allocation to a plurality of businesses, PPM helps the qualitative judgment but has the following problems. It only shows the current business value and does not suggest future potential. It is not possible to quantitatively judge the investment allocation. Investment allocation is left to the qualitative judgment of the manager.

The DCF analysis and its improved method are quantitative methods for evaluating the business value by the present amount of money, but the purpose is to make an investment judgment index of one business, and the investment allocation of a plurality of businesses which is the purpose of the present invention. It cannot be decided.

The stock portfolio theory can determine the optimal investment allocation if the future risks and returns of the stock can be quantified, but in reality the future price of the stock is unknown, so It will be calculated from the stock price. Therefore, even if this is simply applied to the problem of business investment allocation, it is not possible to determine the investment allocation considering the future business environment.

The present invention objectively allocates the investment of each business,
It is an object of the present invention to provide a method and an apparatus therefor which can be automatically performed. Also, to provide a method and an apparatus capable of quantitatively evaluating the value that future business will generate and optimizing the investment allocation of multiple businesses by using the portfolio theory to evaluate the relationship between risk and return. Is an issue.

Further, in order to avoid the risk when the business environment deteriorates more than expected, it is possible not only to maximize the average future return by using the concept of VaR but also to avoid the worst situation. It is an object of the present invention to provide a method and an apparatus that can do the same.

[0025]

The business investment allocation method according to the present invention is a method for deciding business investment allocation by performing business diagnosis within one company or within a plurality of companies to be consolidated. In order to solve, it is characterized by including a step of obtaining NPV, risk and return of the target business from the financial index of the target business read from the memory.

The business investment allocation method according to the present invention further comprises a step of obtaining the degree of influence of the factors stored in the memory on the target business, and the NP of the target business is set.
The V, the risk, and the return may be obtained in consideration of the degree of influence.

Further, the investment distribution to the target business may be determined from the risk and return.
The investment allocation to the target business may be determined in consideration of the future cash flow situation of the target business.

Furthermore, the investment allocation to the target business may be determined in consideration of the deterioration of business performance due to changes in external factors and internal factors for the target business. Further, the present invention covers not only the business investment allocation method but also the device, the program, and the portable storage medium.

According to the present invention, the investment allocation of each business can be performed objectively and automatically.

[0030]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a business investment distribution optimization system 1 in the present embodiment.

Optimization system 1 for business investment allocation shown in FIG.
Conducts simulations of various future business changes based on statistically assumed business environment changes based on past results, analyst business environment forecasts, and business plans.
Predict the value, risk, return, and financial index of the business to be invested in one company or multiple companies to be consolidated, and determine the investment allocation that maximizes the value of the entire business (minimizes risk) .

The system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a storage device 11 for storing various data and programs, a processing device 12 for performing data processing based on the programs, an operator's input instruction, and showing processing results to the operator. The input / output device 13 is provided. The storage device 11, the processing device 12, and the input / output device 13 may be configured as a single device or a device group including a plurality of devices.

The storage device 11 is composed of an auxiliary storage device such as an HDD, a portable storage medium drive device such as an MO or a tape, and the like, and external environmental data 111 such as raw material prices, sales of the target business, sales amount, etc. The financial data 112 and other various data 113 are stored as a database. Further, the processing process and processing result in the processing device 12 are also stored. The range of these data includes actual time series data from a certain period in the past, future forecasts, and even business plans.

By executing the program, the processing device 12 realizes a factor evaluation function 121, a business value evaluation function 122, a portfolio construction function 123 and a confirmation function 124, which will be described later.

The input / output device 13 is composed of a device such as a keyboard, a pointing device such as a mouse, a display, a printer or the like that serves as an interface with the operator, and accepts the input of conditions for determining the business investment allocation by the operator. , Display the processing process and processing result to the operator.

The processing executed by the system 1 in this embodiment is constructed from the following four functions. Factor evaluation function that affects the business environment Business value evaluation function Portfolio construction function confirmation function Factor evaluation function The factor evaluation function is the sales, sales volume, sales price, profit, share, raw material price, fixed cost, and variable cost of the target business. It is a function to analyze and evaluate the degree of influence of advertising expenses, operating expenses, taxes, exchange rates, crude oil prices, gold prices, labor costs, and electricity charges on the business by obtaining an evaluation index. The past data for the above factors is retrieved from the database in the storage device 11, and the influence degree of each factor and business purpose (profit margin, sales amount, etc.) is analyzed.

As the evaluation index used here, various indexes such as a correlation coefficient, an influence ratio [%], and an influence degree [yen] can be considered. In the optimization system 1 of the business investment allocation of the present embodiment, whichever index is used. It is also possible to use an index. In addition, the factor evaluation function evaluates the fluctuation rate of each factor such as exchange rate fluctuations of ± 10 yen / year and crude oil price fluctuations of $ 10 / barrel / year.

For example, in the case of the power generation business, the effect of exchange rate is 100 million yen on operating income, the effect of temperature is + 3% / ° C on demand, and the degree of effect on operating income is temperature. Change 30%, exchange rate change 10%, raw material change 20
%, Other 40%, etc.

Further, each factor can be displayed. 2 and 3 are diagrams showing display examples of evaluation results by the factor evaluation function. Note that this example is an example, and the method of displaying the evaluation result is not limited to this.

FIG. 2 is a display example of the factor evaluation of the operating profit of the power generation company. FIG. 2A shows a value driver showing factors affecting the operating profit, and FIG.
It is the figure which graphed the calculated | required index and showed what influence each factor has on operating profit.

In the example of the figure, among the factors shown in FIG. 5A, the temperature is 30%, the raw material cost is 20%, the exchange rate is 10%,
It can be seen that the other factors have an influence of 40%. Figure 3
Is a display example showing past fluctuations of the dollar / yen exchange rate and the probability of future occurrence.

The figure shows the fluctuation of past exchange rates and the range of future exchange rate occurrence probabilities of 65%, 95% and 99%. Business Value Evaluation Function The business value evaluation function is a function of calculating the present value (NPV) from financial indicators such as future profit and cash flow of an individual business. The function also calculates the risks and returns of the business at the same time.

Further, with this function, it is possible to calculate the NPV by a simple DCF analysis (fixed scenario), but a method of evaluating by a plurality of scenarios, for example, a method of decision tree, dynamic DCF analysis, real option, etc. Can also be used. When the future scenario is not set, it is also possible to calculate NPV, risk, and return from the actual data from the past to the present.

Here, NPV is the above-mentioned calculation formula (1).
The definition of risks and returns can be arbitrarily set and changed by the user. The normal return is set to the NPV itself or the profit rate, and the risk is set to the dispersion of the financial index (cash flow etc.) of each business in an arbitrary period or the dispersion of the NPV of a plurality of scenarios.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of risks and returns by the business value evaluation function. In Figure 4, the return 21 and the two risk indicators 22 for each scenario are calculated from the annual cash flows for the five scenarios up to five years later.
Has been calculated. One risk is NP due to external environment
It is an index showing the fluctuation of V and an index showing the dispersion of NPV between each scenario. The other risk is an index that shows the variance of profits for each year, and is an index that shows the fluctuation of profits by year. For the sake of simplicity, the discount rate for calculating NPV is 0.0.

The risk and return evaluation accuracy of the business value evaluation function has a great influence on the final decision of business investment allocation. For example, if a large investment is made without accurately assessing the risk of the IT industry, a great deal of damage will be incurred during the IT recession. Usually, the manager tends to draw a scenario in his or her own convenience, and it is difficult to construct an appropriate scenario.

In the system 1 according to the present embodiment, a fixed scenario (base scenario) is constructed, and branch ratios and occurrence ratios of a plurality of scenarios are automatically determined from past data in the factor evaluation function, thereby eliminating the subjectivity of the manager. However, it is possible to build an objective scenario and improve the accuracy of business value evaluation.

The case of a power generation company will be described as an example. Note that, for simplicity of explanation, the scenario below focuses only on the exchange rate, but the present embodiment can handle not only one factor but also a plurality of arbitrary factors.

The case where the exchange rate after one year changes within ± 5 yen with respect to the current exchange rate is defined as the base scenario, and the scenario above and below is defined as the yen depreciation and yen appreciation scenario. By using the probability of one-year fluctuations obtained by statistically processing the past time-series data for the fluctuations of exchange rates in the factor evaluation function as the probability of realization of each scenario, for example, the realization probability of a yen depreciation scenario is 30%, The scenario can be constructed objectively with the probability of realization of 40% and the probability of realization of yen appreciation scenario of 30%. Since it is possible to automatically determine the branching ratio and the occurrence ratio of multiple scenarios from past data, it is possible to objectively judge without relying on the subjective exchange rate forecast of the management or the judgment of external forecasting companies as in the past. Can evaluate the business value.

It is also possible to apply a simulation by the Monte Carlo method instead of using a fixed ratio of the feasibility of the scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation is a method of performing simulations of hundreds to tens of thousands by changing conditions using random numbers, and is one calculation method of the decision tree, the dynamic DCF method, and the real option method.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a frequency distribution of past exchange fluctuations. The figure shows the exchange rate changed using random numbers according to the distribution of past data.
Substitute into the formula to obtain the frequency distribution of operating profit.

Operating profit = f (exchange rate) (3) FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a display example of the frequency distribution of operating profit by Monte Carlo simulation.

This figure is a display example of the frequency distribution of operating profit obtained by substituting the random number of the distribution of exchange fluctuation as shown in FIG. 5 into the equation (3). By using the Monte Carlo simulation, the operator can obtain the data of operating profit that continuously changes as shown in FIG.

The application of the simulation by the Monte Carlo method can be applied to obtain the frequency distribution of NPV and other financial indexes in addition to the above operating profit. Since the Monte Carlo method can show business forecasts (operating income, etc.) when the business environment changes continuously, it has the advantage that it is possible to grasp future business forecasts in a continuous distribution. It has the disadvantage that it takes a lot of time because it requires a simulation.

The investment allocation shown as the analysis result by the method explained so far is calculated by replacing the risk and return of each business with the present value at one point in time. However, if there are multiple businesses that require a large amount of investment (such as enhancement of production facilities) at a future stage, the investment funds will be insufficient at some point in the future, and as a result, the expected return cannot be obtained. Or a bankruptcy may result from excessive investment.

In the system 1 of this embodiment, it is possible to determine the feasible and optimum investment allocation for the business investment allocation from the future cash flow situation of each year / month. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of cash flow analysis when selecting two out of four businesses.

FIG. 7A is a diagram showing an example of investment allocation of four businesses. In the example of the figure, the scenario of each business of businesses A to D is explained as a fixed scenario for simplification, and four years later. Represents the cash flow up to. Here, positive cash flow indicates that the amount of income is larger than investment funds (including maintenance and operation costs), and negative cash flow indicates that the amount of investment funds is larger than the income.

Business A and business B represent businesses in growth fields and require a large amount of investment funds, but large returns are expected. On the other hand, Business C and Business D are businesses in mature fields and require almost no investment funds, but stable returns can be obtained.

Here, consider the case where only two businesses can be invested in terms of human resources and funds. This example becomes a very simple portfolio problem that allocates investment from four businesses to two businesses. If the business that maximizes the return is selected according to the usual portfolio theory, the analysis result of investing in business A and business B is obtained. However, as shown in (b) of the figure, both businesses will require a large investment after two years, and the cash flow will become negative, so
It is virtually impossible to select both because bankruptcy occurs due to excessive investment. Further, as shown in FIG. 6C, the selection of the business A and the business C cannot be selected because the cash flow becomes negative after two years. If we stop capital investment, the cash flow after the third year will not be as expected. This is because it does not consider the cash flow situation of each future year.

On the other hand, if the cash flow in each year is selected to be positive, the investment in business B and business C becomes the optimum solution as shown in FIG. In the system 1 of the present embodiment, the business investment allocation is determined in consideration of the cash flow state in each future year, and the feasible business investment can be determined.

Concretely, for example, the following constraint equations and objective functions are used, and these are modified to realize. Note that other financial indicators may be used instead of cash flow in the above constraint equation / objective function.

A specific example of realizing a feasible and optimum investment allocation by a constraint expression (corresponding to g3 above) from the cash flow situation of each future year / month will be shown.
In this example, it is easily realized by adding a formula that the total cash flow of each year is 0 or more as one of the constraint formulas. Of course, the following formula only exemplifies one specific example, and does not limit the scope of the present invention.

[0063]

[Equation 3]

If there is no solution that satisfies the above constraint expression or if the cash flow may be temporarily negative, it is possible to add a penalty to the objective function only when the cash flow is negative. However, since it becomes an objective function to which if-then (conditional judgment) is added, it is difficult to realize with the quadratic programming method, and a heuristic optimization method such as tab search or GA is used. Various functions can be considered as the objective function, but there are the following expressions

[0065]

[Equation 4]

In the above equation, when the cash flow is not positive, the variable c becomes a real value and the cash flow value is added to the objective function. Since the examples using the above constraint equations and objective functions have been explained in the fixed scenario, the risk that the external environment deteriorates more than expected is not considered.

In the system 1 of the present embodiment, the investment allocation to the target business is determined in consideration of the deterioration of business performance due to changes in external factors and internal factors with respect to the target business. The following method uses the concept of VaR to calculate the worst cash flow when the environment surrounding the business deteriorates due to changes in external factors and internal factors, and obtains a stable return even in the worst environment Business investment allocation Is a method of obtaining. This method can also be applied to various indicators other than cash flow, such as profit margin and sales.

Description will be made taking a currency exchange as an example. First, the business value evaluation function creates a scenario in which the realization probability of 1% is extremely high and the realization probability is 1%. Of course, the realization probability may be a value other than 1%. The cash flow at that time is as shown in FIG. Here, the exchange rate that gives a 1% realization probability is statistically calculated from the factor evaluation function.

FIG. 8A is a diagram showing a business scenario in which the realization probability is 1% and the annual depreciation of the yen is extremely low, and FIG. Business A in the figure
D is the same business as business A to D in FIG. 7, and business A,
B and C are businesses that benefit from the weak yen, and business D is a business that benefits from the strong yen.

In the fixed scenario described with reference to FIG. 7, the selection of the business B and the business C was the optimum solution. However, when the fluctuation of the exchange rate is taken into consideration, this selection is shown in FIG. 8 (b). The cash flow will be negative after two years when the super-yen rises. However, when business B and business D are selected, the cash flow is always positive both when the yen is weak and when the yen is strong, and the portfolio is extremely resistant to foreign exchange risk.

In the system of the present embodiment, cash flow evaluation using the concept of VaR as shown in FIG. 8 makes it possible to carry out an analysis in consideration of a very bad business environment. It is possible to calculate the investment allocation that will generate stable returns even when the business environment deteriorates. Portfolio construction function In the portfolio construction function, risk and return in the evaluation obtained by the business value evaluation function are used as input information,
Determine the investment allocation for each business.

The investment allocation determines the investment allocation which becomes the minimum risk in a certain expected return or more based on the portfolio theory. As a specific method for determining the allocation, any optimization method such as quadratic programming, tab search, and genetic algorithm can be used. Further, the constraint expression and the objective function can be set and changed to arbitrary functions and rules by the judgment of the manager. Confirmation function This is a function to confirm the portfolio determined by the portfolio construction function. It consists of PPM screen display, time-series display of profit ratio and sales amount from past to future, and balance sheet / balance sheet display function of individual business units and all businesses.

At this stage, if the manager does not obtain a satisfactory result, various subsequent settings are changed and recalculated. FIG. 9 is an information processing system environment diagram of the business investment allocation optimization system 1 in the present embodiment.

This information processing system is C as shown in FIG.
A PU 31, a main storage device 32 serving as a work area for each program, an auxiliary storage device 33 such as a hard disk in which each program and database are recorded, an input / output device (I / O) 34 such as a display and a keyboard, and a network connection such as a modem. The device 35 and a medium reading device 3 for reading the stored contents from a portable storage medium such as a disk or a magnetic tape.
6 is provided, and these are connected to each other by a bus 38.

In the information processing system of FIG. 9, the medium reading device 36 is used for magnetic tape, flexible disk, C
The program and data stored in the storage medium 37 such as a D-ROM or MO are read out and downloaded to the main storage device 32 or the auxiliary storage device 23. Then, each processing according to the present embodiment can be realized in software by the CPU 31 executing the program and data.

In the information processing system of FIG. 9, application software may be exchanged using the storage medium 37 such as a flexible disk. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the method and the apparatus for performing the optimal business investment allocation, and a program or a computer readable program for causing the computer to perform the functions of the above-described embodiments of the present invention when used by the computer. It can also be configured as a storage medium 37.

In this case, the "storage medium" is, for example, as shown in FIG.
0, as shown in FIG. 0, via a portable storage medium 46 that is removable from a medium drive device 47 such as a CD-ROM, a flexible disk (or may be an MO, a DVD, a removable hard disk, etc.), or a network line 43. A storage unit (database or the like) 42 in an external device (server or the like) to be transmitted or the main body 4 of the information processing device 41
A memory (RAM, hard disk, etc.) 45 in 4 is included. The programs stored in the portable storage medium 46 or the storage means (database etc.) 42 are loaded into the memory (RAM or hard disk etc.) 45 in the main body 44 and executed.

[0078]

According to the present invention, the maximum return can be obtained at a certain risk that can be expected in the future for business investment that was conventionally made under the subjective management judgment of the manager. It is possible to determine the investment allocation, or the investment allocation with the minimum risk above a certain return.

Further, not only to grasp the state of the external environment (exchange rate, raw material cost, etc.) and internal environment (labor cost, etc.) of each business on the business, but also the investment with the lowest risk in the future possible environmental changes. The allocation can be determined.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of an optimizing system for business investment allocation in the present embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a display example of factor evaluation of operating profit of a power generation company by the system according to the present embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a display example showing past yen exchange rate fluctuations and future occurrence probabilities by the system according to the present embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of calculating risks and returns by a business value evaluation function.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a frequency distribution of past exchange rate fluctuations used in the Monte Carlo method.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a frequency distribution of operating profit by Monte Carlo simulation.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of cash flow analysis when selecting two out of four businesses.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of analysis when the concept of VaR is used.

FIG. 9 is an information processing system environment diagram of the business investment allocation optimization system 1 in the present embodiment.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a medium.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a conceptual diagram of PPM.

FIG. 12 is a conceptual diagram for explaining dynamic DCF and real options.

FIG. 13 is a conceptual diagram for explaining optimal stock investment allocation based on portfolio theory.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 Business investment allocation optimization system 11 Storage device 12 Processor 13 I / O device 21 Return 22 Risk index 31 CPU 32 main memory 33 Auxiliary storage device 34 I / O device 35 Network connection device 36 medium reader 37 storage media 41 Information processing equipment 42 storage means 43 network lines 44 body 45 memory 46 Portable storage medium 47 medium drive 101 arc AB 102 arc BC 103 arc CD 104 arc DA 105 plane 111 External environmental data such as raw material prices 112 financial data 113 Other data 121 Factor evaluation function 122 Business Value Evaluation Function 123 Portfolio construction function 124 Confirmation function

   ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continued front page    (72) Inventor Yoshikazu Fukuyama             1-1 Tanabe Nitta, Kawasaki-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa             Within Fuji Electric Co., Ltd. F-term (reference) 5B056 BB23 BB77

Claims (8)

[Claims] 1. A business investment allocation method for deciding business investment allocation by performing business diagnosis within one company or multiple companies to be consolidated, wherein the target business is read from a financial index of the target business read from a memory. NPV, risk and return of business investment allocation method characterized by the above. 2. The business investment allocation method according to claim 1, wherein
A business investment allocation method, wherein a degree of influence of a factor stored in a memory on the target business is obtained, and NPV, risk and return of the target business are obtained in consideration of the degree of the influence. 3. The business investment allocation method according to claim 1, wherein the investment allocation to the target business is determined from the risk and the return. 4. The business investment allocation method according to claim 3, wherein the investment allocation to the target business is determined in consideration of the future cash flow situation of the target business. Investment allocation method. 5. The business investment allocation method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the investment allocation to the target business is performed in consideration of deterioration in business performance due to changes in external factors and internal factors of the target business. A business investment allocation method characterized by determining. 6. An apparatus for performing business diagnosis and business investment allocation within one company or a plurality of companies to be consolidated, comprising financial data storage means for storing a financial index of a business and the financial data storage means. A business investment apportionment apparatus comprising: a business value evaluation unit that obtains NPV, risk, and return of the target business from the financial index of the target business read from 7. The NPV of the target business is read from the financial index of the target business read from the memory when used in a computer that performs business diagnosis and business investment allocation within one company or in multiple companies to be consolidated. , A program that causes the computer to execute a business value evaluation function that seeks risks and returns. 8. The NPV of the target business from the financial index of the target business read from the memory when used in a computer that performs business diagnosis and business investment allocation within one company or in multiple companies to be consolidated. A computer-readable portable storage medium that stores a program that causes the computer to execute a business value evaluation function that seeks risks and returns.