JP2004070534A - Device, method and program for providing agreement information - Google Patents

Device, method and program for providing agreement information Download PDF

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JP2004070534A
JP2004070534A JP2002226736A JP2002226736A JP2004070534A JP 2004070534 A JP2004070534 A JP 2004070534A JP 2002226736 A JP2002226736 A JP 2002226736A JP 2002226736 A JP2002226736 A JP 2002226736A JP 2004070534 A JP2004070534 A JP 2004070534A
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stock
contract
probability
price
issue
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JP3955802B2 (en
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Hideki Iwatsuki
岩月　秀樹
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QUANTS RES KK
QUANTS RESEARCH KK
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QUANTS RES KK
QUANTS RESEARCH KK
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Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To quickly and efficiently provide information concerned in a proper limit value when an investor conducts a limit order. <P>SOLUTION: When an issue code, a period and a probability range are assigned on terminal devices 10a-10c, an agreement probability calculating part 124b of an Web server 12 prepares a graph for showing a relation between a price (stock price) and agreement probability after calculating the agreement probability about each of the prices, and the prepared graph is provided on the terminal devices 10a-10c. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

【０００１】
【発明の属する技術分野】
この発明は、所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供装置、約定情報提供方法および約定情報提供プログラムに関し、特に、投資家が指し値注文をおこなう場合に、適正な指し値に係る情報を迅速かつ効率良く提供することができる約定情報提供装置、約定情報提供方法および約定情報提供プログラムに関する。
【０００２】
【従来の技術】
従来、株の売買注文方式には、市場の動きに任せる成り行き注文と、ある値段でしか売買しない指し値注文とがある。かかる成り行き注文の場合には、注文の性格上ほとんどの場合に売買が成立するが、指し値注文の場合には、値段を指定しているために成り行き注文ほど売買が成立しないという特性がある。
【０００３】
このため、最近では、どの程度の約定確率で指し値注文が成立するかを計算するツールが登場してきている。たとえば、株式会社エムスリー（日本トレードワークス）により提供される「指し値君」では、売りか買いかを選択し、コード番号、株数および希望指し値を入力して計算ボタンをクリックすると、その指し値の約定確率（値付き確率）を自動的に計算してリアルタイムで表示するものである。なお、この約定確率は、１０分以内、１時間以内、２時間以内、本日の取引時間内（引け後の場合は翌取引日）といった形態で表示することができる。
【０００４】
したがって、かかる「指し値君」に代表される従来の指し値注文ツールを用いると、希望指し値での約定確率が分かるので、指し値注文をおこなう際の売買成立の可能性を事前に予測することができる。
【０００５】
【発明が解決しようとする課題】
しかしながら、この従来技術は、あくまでも「希望指し値」に対応する約定確率を算定するものにすぎないので、指し値注文をしようとする投資家のニーズを十分に反映したものであるとは言えないという問題がある。また、かかる従来技術は、約定確率の正確性を検証できるものではないので、算定した約定確率が妥当なものであるか否かを検証できないという問題もある。
【０００６】
具体的には、投資家にとっては指し値は不変のものではなく、約定確率が高くなる「適正な指し値」こそが重要であるので、この従来技術のように、単に希望指し値の約定確率を算定するだけでは、適正な指し値がどの値段であるかを投資家自身が推測せざるを得ず、結局この従来技術が十分な情報を提供しているとは言えない。特に、算定した約定確率の正確性を検証できないようでは、この従来技術により提供される約定確率を投資家が信用することはできないので、情報の質にも不安が残る。
【０００７】
なお、かかる希望指し値を繰り返し変更して適正な指し値らしきものを求める運用も考えられるが、株式銘柄を売買するための適正な指し値は時々刻々と変化するものであるので、かかる運用をおこなったとしても、適正な指し値が得られるとは限らない。
【０００８】
これらのことから、投資家が指し値注文をおこなう場合に、適正な指し値を迅速かつ効率良く知るための情報をいかにして提供するかが極めて重要な課題となっている。
【０００９】
この発明は、上述した従来技術による課題（問題点）を解決するためになされたものであって、投資家が指し値注文をおこなう場合に、適正な指し値に係る情報を迅速かつ効率良く提供することができる約定情報提供装置、約定情報提供方法および約定情報提供プログラムを提供することを目的とする。
【００１０】
【課題を解決するための手段】
上述した課題を解決し、目的を達成するため、請求項１の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供装置であって、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定手段と、前記約定確率算定手段により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力手段とを備えたことを特徴とする。
【００１１】
この請求項１の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定し、算定した各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力することとしたので、投資家などが約定確率算定期間における各値段と約定確率の関係を迅速かつ効率良く把握することができる。
【００１２】
また、請求項２の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、請求項１の発明において、各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶する株価実績データ記憶手段と、前記株価実績データ記憶手段から指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出手段とをさらに備え、前記約定確率算定手段は、前記株価実績データ抽出手段により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする。
【００１３】
この請求項２の発明によれば、あらかじめ各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶しておき、ここから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出し、抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することとしたので、株式銘柄の株価実績データの取得をさらに迅速におこなうことができる。
【００１４】
また、請求項３の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、請求項１または２の発明において、前記約定確率算定手段は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００１５】
この請求項３の発明によれば、約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することとしたので、投資家などが希望指し値を入力しなくとも効率良く適正な各値段についての約定確率を算定することができる。
【００１６】
また、請求項４の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、請求項１、２または３の発明において、前記約定確率算定手段は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００１７】
この請求項４の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲（たとえば百分率で表現された値段の範囲）が指定された場合に、この約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび算定範囲に基づいて特定することとしたので、意味のない値段についての約定確率計算を除外して効率良く約定確率を算定することができる。
【００１８】
また、請求項５の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、請求項１〜４の発明において、前記約定情報出力手段は、前記約定確率算定手段により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする。
【００１９】
この請求項５の発明によれば、算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することとしたので、投資家などは、値段を横軸にとり約定確率を縦軸とした分布関数のような態様で値段と約定確率の関係を効率良く把握することができる。
【００２０】
また、請求項６の発明に係る約定情報提供装置は、請求項１〜５の発明において、前記約定確率算定手段により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行手段をさらに備えたことを特徴とする。
【００２１】
この請求項６の発明によれば、過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率と株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションすることとしたので、予想した約定確率の適正さを投資家などが把握することができる。
【００２２】
また、請求項７の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供方法であって、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定工程と、前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力工程とを含んだことを特徴とする。
【００２３】
この請求項７の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定し、算定した各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力することとしたので、投資家などが約定確率算定期間における各値段と約定確率の関係を迅速かつ効率良く把握することができる。
【００２４】
また、請求項８の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、請求項７の発明において、あらかじめ記憶した各株式銘柄についての株価実績データから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出工程をさらに含み、前記約定確率算定工程は、前記株価実績データ抽出工程により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする。
【００２５】
この請求項８の発明によれば、あらかじめ各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶しておき、ここから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出し、抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することとしたので、株式銘柄の株価実績データの取得をさらに迅速におこなうことができる。
【００２６】
また、請求項９の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、請求項７または８の発明において、前記約定確率算定工程は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００２７】
この請求項９の発明によれば、約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することとしたので、投資家などが希望指し値を入力しなくとも効率良く適正な各値段についての約定確率を算定することができる。
【００２８】
また、請求項１０の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、請求項７、８または９の発明において、前記約定確率算定工程は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００２９】
この請求項１０の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲（たとえば百分率で表現された値段の範囲）が指定された場合に、この約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび算定範囲に基づいて特定することとしたので、意味のない値段についての約定確率計算を除外して効率良く約定確率を算定することができる。
【００３０】
また、請求項１１の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、請求項７〜１０の発明において、前記約定情報出力工程は、前記約定確率算定工程により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする。
【００３１】
この請求項１１の発明によれば、算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することとしたので、投資家などは、値段を横軸にとり約定確率を縦軸とした分布関数のような態様で値段と約定確率の関係を効率良く把握することができる。
【００３２】
また、請求項１２の発明に係る約定情報提供方法は、請求項７〜１１の発明において、前記約定確率算定工程により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行工程をさらに含んだことを特徴とする。
【００３３】
この請求項１２の発明によれば、過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率と株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションすることとしたので、予想した約定確率の適正さを投資家などが把握することができる。
【００３４】
また、請求項１３の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供プログラムであって、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定手順と、前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力手順とをコンピュータに実行させることを特徴とする。
【００３５】
この請求項１３の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定し、算定した各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力することとしたので、投資家などが約定確率算定期間における各値段と約定確率の関係を迅速かつ効率良く把握することができる。
【００３６】
また、請求項１４の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、請求項１３の発明において、あらかじめ記憶した各株式銘柄についての株価実績データから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出手順をさらに含み、前記約定確率算定手順は、前記株価実績データ抽出手順により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする。
【００３７】
この請求項１４の発明によれば、あらかじめ各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶しておき、ここから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出し、抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することとしたので、株式銘柄の株価実績データの取得をさらに迅速におこなうことができる。
【００３８】
また、請求項１５の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、請求項１３または１４の発明において、前記約定確率算定手順は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００３９】
この請求項１５の発明によれば、約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することとしたので、投資家などが希望指し値を入力しなくとも効率良く適正な各値段についての約定確率を算定することができる。
【００４０】
また、請求項１６の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、請求項１３、１４または１５の発明において、前記約定確率算定手順は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする。
【００４１】
この請求項１６の発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲（たとえば百分率で表現された値段の範囲）が指定された場合に、この約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび算定範囲に基づいて特定することとしたので、意味のない値段についての約定確率計算を除外して効率良く約定確率を算定することができる。
【００４２】
また、請求項１７の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、請求項１３〜１６の発明において、前記約定情報出力手順は、前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする。
【００４３】
この請求項１７の発明によれば、算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することとしたので、投資家などは、値段を横軸にとり約定確率を縦軸とした分布関数のような態様で値段と約定確率の関係を効率良く把握することができる。
【００４４】
また、請求項１８の発明に係る約定情報提供プログラムは、請求項１３〜１７の発明において、前記約定確率算定手順により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行手順をさらに含んだことを特徴とする。
【００４５】
この請求項１８の発明によれば、過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率と株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションすることとしたので、予想した約定確率の適正さを投資家などが把握することができる。
【００４６】
【発明の実施の形態】
以下に添付図面を参照して、この発明に係る約定情報提供装置、約定情報提供方法および約定情報提供プログラムの好適な実施の形態を詳細に説明する。なお、本実施の形態では、インターネット上の分散システムの一つであるＷＷＷ（Ｗｏｒｌｄ　Ｗｉｄｅ　Ｗｅｂ）上で動作する約定情報提供システムに本発明を適用した場合を示すこととする。
【００４７】
まず、本実施の形態に係る約定情報提供システムの構成について説明する。図１は、本実施の形態に係る約定情報提供システムの構成を示す機能ブロック図である。同図に示すように、この約定情報提供システムは、各端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃとＷＥＢサーバ１２とがインターネット１１を介して接続された構成となる。
【００４８】
端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃは、ＨＴＴＰサーバにアクセス可能なＷＥＢブラウザを搭載したインターネット端末であり、プロバイダなどを介してインターネット上の各種サーバ装置にアクセスできる。
【００４９】
ＷＥＢサーバ１２は、本発明に係る装置であり、インターネット上の各種端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃからアクセスを受け付けてホームページなどのウエブサービスを提供するＨＴＴＰサーバである。このＷＥＢサーバ１２は、単に一般的なウエブサービスを提供するだけではなく、所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する。具体的には、このＷＥＢサーバ１２では、従来技術のように単に希望指し値に対応する約定確率を呈示するのではなく、複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定し、横軸を値段とし縦軸を約定確率としたグラフを提供することにより、投資家などに対してどの値段が適正な指し値であるかを迅速かつ効率良く把握できるようにしている。
【００５０】
図１に示すように、このＷＥＢサーバ１２は、インターフェース部１２０、入力部１２１、表示部１２２、記憶部１２３および制御部１２４を有する。インターフェース部１２０は、インターネット１１を介して端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃとデータ授受するネットワークインターフェースであり、具体的にはＴＣＰ／ＩＰプロトコルにしたがった処理をおこなう。
【００５１】
入力部１２１は、キーボードやマウスなどの入力デバイスであり、表示部１２２は、液晶パネルやディスプレイなどの表示デバイスであり、記憶部１２３は、ハードディスク装置などの記憶デバイスである。この記憶部１２には、ハイパーテキスト１２３ａと株価実績データ１２３ｂとが記憶されている。
【００５２】
ハイパーテキスト１２３ａは、端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに配信するウインドウ画面を形成するハイパーテキストであり、株価実績データ１２３ｂは、各種株式銘柄の株価の実績値を継続的に蓄積したデータである。この株価実績データ１２３ｂは、図示しない株価提供サーバから所定時間間隔で逐次株価データを取得して更新される。
【００５３】
制御部１２４は、ＷＥＢサーバ１２を全体制御する制御部であり、サーバ処理部１２４ａ、約定確率算定部１２４ｂおよびシミュレーション実行部１２４ｃを有する。
【００５４】
サーバ処理部１２４ａは、端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに対してＨＴＴＰサーバとしての機能を提供するための処理部であり、具体的には、端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃからのアクセスを受け付けた際に、記憶部１２３に記憶したハイパーテキスト１２３ａを読み出して、該当する端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに送信する処理などをおこなう。
【００５５】
約定確率算定部１２４ｂは、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、記憶部１２３ｂに記憶した当該株式銘柄の株価実績データ１２３ｂに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する処理部である。ここで、この約定確率算定部１２４ｂは、従来技術のように「希望指し値」の入力を受け付けて約定確率を計算するものではないので、約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を特定する必要がある。このため、この約定確率算定部１２４ｂでは、株式銘柄の株価実績データ並びに算定範囲（たとえば百分率で表現された値段の範囲）に基づいて約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を特定する。ただし、株式銘柄の株価実績データのみに基づいて複数の値段を特定することもできる。
【００５６】
なお、この約定確率算定部１２４ｂによる算定結果（各値段ごとの約定確率）は、横軸を値段とし縦軸を約定確率としたグラフとして端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに対して送信される。また、売り約定確率２０％、売り約定確率５０％、買い約定確率５０％、買い約定確率２０％とした場合の現時点以降の株価の推移を示すグラフも送信される。さらに、株価、終値からの乖離率、買い約定確率（売り約定確率）の関係を示す表データについても送信される。
【００５７】
シミュレーション実行部１２４ｃは、約定確率算定部１２４ｂにより過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率と株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションする処理部であり、そのシュミレーション結果が、端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに対して送信される。
【００５８】
次に、図１に示したＷＥＢサーバ１２が提供する約定確率ウインドウの一例について説明する。図２は、図１に示したＷＥＢサーバ１２が提供する約定確率ウインドウの一例を示す図である。同図に示すように、銘柄コードまたは銘柄名の入力枠２１、期間の入力枠２２および確率範囲の入力枠２３を条件入力し、約定確率を計算するボタン２４がクリックされると、各値段と約定確率（買い約定確率、売り約定確率）の関係を示すグラフ２５が表示される。また、売り約定確率２０％、売り約定確率５０％、買い約定確率５０％、買い約定確率２０％とした場合の現時点以降の株価の推移を示すグラフ２６が表示される。さらに、株価、終値からの乖離率、買い約定確率（売り約定確率）の関係を示す表２７が表示される。
【００５９】
かかる約定確率ウインドウ２０を提供することにより、投資家などは、各値段ごとの約定確率を考慮して、適正な指し値を決定し、もって効率良く売買を成立させることが可能となる。
【００６０】
図３は、図１に示したＷＥＢサーバ１２が提供する約定確率ウインドウ２０の別の例を示す図である。同図に示すように、ここでは図２に示すものと比べて、グラフ２８が追加されている。このグラフ２８は、すでに説明したグラフ２５と同様に各値段と約定確率（買い約定確率、売り約定確率）の関係を示すグラフである。
【００６１】
実際に指し値注文をおこなう場合には、「約定確率を満たす指し値」を知りたいケースが多いため、かかるグラフ２８を約定確率ウインドウ２０に表示することにより、より効率良く適正な指し値を決定することもできる。
【００６２】
次に、図２および図３に示したシミュレーションを実行するボタン２８をクリックされた場合に表示される表示例について説明する。図４は、図２および図３に示したシミュレーションを実行するボタン２８がクリックされた場合に表示される表示例を示す図である。
【００６３】
同図に示すように、過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率（Ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔ　Ｐｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙ）と株式銘柄の株価実績データ（Ａｃｔｕａｌ　Ｐｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙ）との対応関係を示すグラフ３１が約定確率ウインドウ２０上に表示される。ここで、このＦｏｒｅｃａｓｔ　Ｐｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙは、過去の予想的中確率を５％ごとに２０個のグループに分けた値であり、Ａｃｔｕａｌ　Ｐｒｏｂａｂｉｌｉｔｙは、各予想確率のグループで何％のケースが実際に株価が到達したかを計算した値である。このため、図中に示した破線３２が実線３３に近いほど予想の精度が高かったことを意味することになる。
【００６４】
また、各確率のグループに属するサンプル（ケース）と、各確率のグループの中で実際に株価が到達したケースとの関係を示すグラフ３４も約定確率ウインドウ２０上に表示される。
【００６５】
次に、図１に示した端末装置１０ａとＷＥＢサーバ１２との間でおこなわれる処理手順について説明する。図５は、図１に示した端末装置１０ａとＷＥＢサーバ１２との間でおこなわれる処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
【００６６】
同図に示すように、端末装置１０上でＷＥＢブラウザを起動し、インターネット１１を介してＷＥＢサーバにアクセスしたならば（ステップＳ２０１）、ＷＥＢブラウザ１２は、図示省略したメインメニューを提供して（ステップＳ２０２）、該メインメニューを端末装置１０ａ上に表示する。
【００６７】
そして、このメインメニュー上で約定確率計算が選択されたならば（ステップＳ２０３）、その旨がＷＥＢサーバ１２に通知されるので、ＷＥＢサーバ１２は図２に示した約定確率ウインドウ２０を提供し（ステップＳ２０４）、この約定確率ウインドウ２０が端末装置１０ａ上で表示される。
【００６８】
ここで、投資家などが、この約定確率ウインドウ２０上で銘柄コード、期間、確率範囲を入力して、約定確率計算を指示したならば（ステップＳ２０５）、ＷＥＢサーバ１２の約定確率算定部１２４ｂが約定確率計算を実行する（ステップＳ２０６）。
【００６９】
そして、この計算結果に基づいて表示データを作成し（ステップＳ２０７）、作成した表示データを端末装置１０ａに送信し（ステップＳ２０８）、端末装置１０ａ上に当該表示データを表示する。
【００７０】
次に、図５のステップＳ２０６に示した約定確率の実行手順をさらに詳細に説明する。図６は、図５のステップＳ２０６に示した約定確率の実行手順をさらに詳細に示すフローチャートである。
【００７１】
同図に示すように、ＷＥＢサーバ１２の約定確率算定部１２４ｂは、まず指定された銘柄の過去の株価データ１２３ｂを記憶部１２３から取得し（ステップＳ３０１）、過去の平均値幅を計算する処理と過去の値幅の標準偏差を計算する処理を各期間についておこなう（ステップＳ３０２〜Ｓ３０３）。
【００７２】
そして、呼び値（株価変動の範囲）を取得した後に（ステップＳ３０４）、目標とする株価を設定し（ステップＳ３０５）、目標株価への変動率、過去の平均値幅、過去の値幅の標準偏差を確率密度関数に当てはめ（ステップＳ３０６）、約定確率を算定する処理を各期間についておこない（ステップＳ３０７）、最も高かった約定確率を採用し（ステップＳ３０８）、目標とする株価を変動させた後に（ステップＳ３０９）、ステップＳ３０６に移行して各目標株価について同様の処理をおこなう。上記一連の処理（ステップＳ３０１〜Ｓ３０９）を買いと売りの両方についておこなったならば、処理を終了する。
【００７３】
上述してきたように、本実施の形態では、端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃ上で銘柄コード、期間および確率範囲が指定された際に、ＷＥＢサーバ１２の約定確率算定部１２４ｂが、各値段についての約定確率をそれぞれ算出し、値段と約定確率の関係を示すグラフを端末装置１０ａ〜１０ｃに対して提供するよう構成したので、投資家などが約定確率算定期間における各値段と約定確率の関係を迅速かつ効率良く把握することができる。
【００７４】
なお、本実施の形態では、本発明をインターネット上のＷＷＷを用いた場合に適用したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、スタンドアロンのコンピュータを用いた場合や専用ネットワークを用いて実現することもできる。
【００７５】
また、本実施の形態では、約定確率ウインドウ２０上で一銘柄の指定のみをおこなう場合を説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、複数銘柄を入力することもできる。この場合は、バスケットのバリューを求めることになるので、図２および図３に示すグラフ２６の縦軸およびグラフ２５の横軸が価格ではなく百分率表示となる。
【００７６】
さらに、本実施の形態では、株価実績データ１２３ｂを記憶部１２３に記憶する場合について説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、その都度インターネット１１を介して株価実績データ１２３ｂを取得することもできる。
【００７７】
【発明の効果】
以上説明したように、本発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定し、算定した各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力するよう構成したので、投資家などが約定確率算定期間における各値段と約定確率の関係を迅速かつ効率良く把握することができる。
【００７８】
また、本発明によれば、あらかじめ各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶しておき、ここから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出し、抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定するよう構成したので、株式銘柄の株価実績データの取得をさらに迅速におこなうことができる。
【００７９】
また、本発明によれば、約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定するよう構成したので、投資家などが希望指し値を入力しなくとも効率良く適正な各値段についての約定確率を算定することができる。
【００８０】
また、本発明によれば、株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲（たとえば百分率で表現された値段の範囲）が指定された場合に、この約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび算定範囲に基づいて特定するよう構成したので、意味のない値段についての約定確率計算を除外して効率良く約定確率を算定することができる。
【００８１】
また、本発明によれば、算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力するよう構成したので、投資家などは、値段を横軸にとり約定確率を縦軸とした分布関数のような態様で値段と約定確率の関係を効率良く把握することができる。
【００８２】
また、本発明によれば、過去に算定された株式銘柄の約定確率と株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするよう構成したので、予想した約定確率の適正さを投資家などが把握することができる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】本実施の形態に係る約定情報提供システムの構成を示す機能ブロック図である。
【図２】図１に示したＷＥＢサーバが提供する約定確率ウインドウの一例を示す図である。
【図３】図１に示したＷＥＢサーバが提供する約定確率ウインドウの別の例を示す図である。
【図４】図２および図３に示したシミュレーションを実行するボタンがクリックされた場合に表示される表示例を示す図である。
【図５】図１に示した端末装置とＷＥＢサーバとの間でおこなわれる処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
【図６】図５に示した約定確率の実行手順をさらに詳細に示すフローチャートである。
【符号の説明】
１０ａ〜１０ｃ　　端末装置
１１　　インターネット
１２　　ＷＥＢサーバ
１２０　　インターフェース部
１２１　　入力部
１２２　　表示部
１２３　　記憶部
１２３ａ　　ハイパーテキスト
１２３ｂ　　株価実績データ
１２４　　制御部
１２４ａ　　サーバ処理部
１２４ｂ　　約定確率算定部
１２４ｃ　　シミュレーション実行部
２０　　約定確率ウインドウ[0001]
TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a contract information providing apparatus, a contract information providing method, and a contract information providing program for providing information related to a contract probability of a stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand, The present invention relates to a contract information providing device, a contract information providing method, and a contract information providing program capable of providing information relating to an appropriate bid price quickly and efficiently when placing an order.
[0002]
[Prior art]
2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, there are two types of stock trading order systems: market orders that are left to market movements, and limit orders that only buy and sell at a certain price. In the case of such a market order, a trade is made in almost all cases due to the nature of the order. However, in the case of a limit order, there is a characteristic that the price is specified, so that the trade is not made as much as the market order.
[0003]
For this reason, recently, tools for calculating the degree of execution probability of a limit order have been introduced. For example, in "Limit Price" provided by M3 Co., Ltd. (Japan Trade Works), select whether to sell or buy, enter the code number, the number of shares, and the desired limit price, and click the calculate button. (Probability with value) is automatically calculated and displayed in real time. The contract probability can be displayed in a form such as 10 minutes or less, 1 hour or less, 2 hours or less, and trading time of the day (in the case of closing, the next trading day).
[0004]
Therefore, by using a conventional limit ordering tool represented by “limit price”, the contract probability at the desired limit price can be known, and the possibility of a successful trade when placing a limit order can be predicted in advance.
[0005]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
However, this conventional technique merely calculates the execution probability corresponding to the "desired bid price", and thus cannot be said to sufficiently reflect the needs of investors who intend to place a bid order. There is. In addition, since the conventional technique cannot verify the accuracy of the execution probability, there is a problem that it is not possible to verify whether the calculated execution probability is appropriate.
[0006]
Specifically, for investors, the limit price is not invariable, and the "proper bid price" that increases the execution probability is important, so simply calculate the execution probability of the desired offer price, as in this prior art. Only by itself, investors have to guess what the appropriate bid is, and after all, this prior art cannot be said to provide sufficient information. In particular, if the accuracy of the calculated execution probability cannot be verified, investors cannot trust the execution probability provided by this conventional technique, and the quality of information remains uncertain.
[0007]
In addition, it is conceivable to repeatedly change the desired bid and seek what is likely to be a proper bid.However, since the proper bid to buy or sell a stock issue changes from moment to moment, However, appropriate bids are not always obtained.
[0008]
For these reasons, when an investor places a limit order, how to provide information for quickly and efficiently finding an appropriate limit has become a very important issue.
[0009]
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problem (problem) of the related art, and is intended to promptly and efficiently provide information on an appropriate bid price when an investor places a limit order. It is an object of the present invention to provide a contract information providing device, a contract information providing method, and a contract information providing program which can perform the following.
[0010]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
In order to solve the above-described problem and achieve the object, a contract information providing device according to the first aspect of the present invention provides information relating to a contract probability of a stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand. A contract information providing device, wherein when the stock brand and a contract probability calculation period for the stock brand are designated, a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on actual stock price data of the stock brand. It is characterized by comprising: probability calculation means; and contract information output means for outputting contract information in which each contract probability calculated by the contract probability calculation means is associated with a price.
[0011]
According to the first aspect of the present invention, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue are designated, the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue. Since the contract information in which the calculated contract probabilities are associated with the prices is output, investors and the like can quickly and efficiently grasp the relationship between each price and the contract probability in the contract probability calculating period.
[0012]
Further, the contract information providing device according to the invention of claim 2 is the invention according to claim 1, wherein the stock price actual data storage means for storing the stock price actual data of each stock issue in association with each stock issue, A stock price performance data extracting means for extracting stock price performance data of the designated stock from the data storage means, wherein the execution probability calculating means comprises a plurality of stock price performance data based on the stock price performance data extracted by the stock price performance data extracting means. The contract probability is calculated for each price.
[0013]
According to the invention of claim 2, the stock price actual data of each stock issue is stored in advance in association with each stock issue, and the stock price actual data of the designated stock issue is extracted therefrom. Since the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data, the acquisition of the actual stock price data of the stock can be performed more quickly.
[0014]
In the contract information providing device according to a third aspect of the present invention, in the first or second aspect of the present invention, the contract probability calculating means may calculate a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on the stock price actual data of the stock. It is characterized by specifying based on.
[0015]
According to the invention of claim 3, a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue, so that the investor can efficiently input the desired bid price without inputting the desired bid price. The execution probability can be calculated for each appropriate price.
[0016]
Further, in the contract information providing device according to the invention of claim 4, in the invention of claim 1, 2 or 3, the contract probability calculating means is configured such that the contract probability calculating period and the calculation range of the stock brand and the stock brand are set. When designated, a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock and the calculation range.
[0017]
According to the invention of claim 4, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period and a calculation range (for example, a price range expressed as a percentage) for the stock issue are specified, the execution probability calculation target Since the plurality of prices are specified based on the stock price actual data and the calculation range of the stock issue, the execution probability can be calculated efficiently without the execution of the execution probability calculation for the meaningless price.
[0018]
Further, in the contract information providing device according to the invention of claim 5, in the invention of claims 1 to 4, the contract information output means graphically represents the contract probability for each price calculated by the contract probability calculating means. It is characterized by outputting data of a contract information graph.
[0019]
According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, since the data of the execution information graph in which the calculated execution probability for each price is represented in a graph is output, the investors and the like take the price on the horizontal axis and the execution probability on the vertical axis. The relationship between the price and the execution probability can be efficiently grasped in a manner like a distribution function on the axis.
[0020]
The contract information providing device according to the invention of claim 6 is the contract information providing device according to claim 1, wherein the contract probability calculated by the contract probability calculating means in the past and the stock price actual data of the stock brand. And a simulation executing means for simulating the corresponding relationship.
[0021]
According to the invention of claim 6, since the relationship between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past and the actual stock price data of the stock issue is simulated, the appropriateness of the expected execution probability is determined by the investor or the like. Can be grasped.
[0022]
Further, the contract information providing method according to the invention of claim 7 is a contract information providing method for providing information on a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand, wherein the stock brand is provided. And when a contract probability calculation period for the stock is specified, a contract probability calculating step of calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on the actual stock price data of the stock, and a contract probability calculating step. A contract information output step of outputting contract information in which each calculated contract probability is associated with a price.
[0023]
According to the invention of claim 7, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue are designated, the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue. Since the contract information in which the calculated contract probabilities are associated with the prices is output, investors and the like can quickly and efficiently grasp the relationship between each price and the contract probability in the contract probability calculating period.
[0024]
The contract information providing method according to the invention of claim 8 is the invention according to claim 7, wherein the actual price data of the designated stock issue is extracted from the actual stock price data of each stock issue stored in advance. The method further includes the step of calculating a contract probability, wherein the contract probability is calculated for each of a plurality of prices based on the actual stock price data extracted in the actual stock price data extracting step.
[0025]
According to the invention of claim 8, the stock price actual data of each stock issue is stored in advance in association with each stock issue, and the stock price actual data of the designated stock issue is extracted therefrom. Since the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data, the acquisition of the actual stock price data of the stock can be performed more quickly.
[0026]
In the contract information providing method according to the ninth aspect of the present invention, in the invention according to the seventh or eighth aspect, the contract probability calculating step includes the step of calculating a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on stock price actual data of the stock. It is characterized by specifying based on.
[0027]
According to the ninth aspect of the present invention, the plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock, so that the investor can efficiently input the desired bid price without inputting the desired bid price. The execution probability can be calculated for each appropriate price.
[0028]
In the contract information providing method according to the tenth aspect of the present invention, in the invention of the seventh, eighth, or ninth aspect, the execution probability calculation step may include the step of calculating the execution probability and the execution probability calculation period of the stock issue and the stock issue. When designated, a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock and the calculation range.
[0029]
According to the tenth aspect of the present invention, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period and a calculation range (for example, a price range expressed as a percentage) for the stock issue are specified, the execution target of the contract probability is calculated. Since the plurality of prices are specified based on the stock price actual data and the calculation range of the stock issue, the execution probability can be calculated efficiently without the execution of the execution probability calculation for the meaningless price.
[0030]
In the contract information providing method according to the invention of claim 11, in the invention of claims 7 to 10, the contract information output step graphically represents the contract probability for each price calculated in the contract probability calculation step. It is characterized by outputting data of a contract information graph.
[0031]
According to the eleventh aspect of the present invention, since the data of the execution information graph in which the calculated execution probability for each price is represented in a graph is output, the investors and the like take the price on the horizontal axis and the execution probability on the vertical axis. The relationship between the price and the execution probability can be efficiently grasped in a manner like a distribution function on the axis.
[0032]
The contract information providing method according to the twelfth aspect of the present invention is the method according to any one of the seventh to eleventh aspects, wherein the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past in the execution probability calculation step and the stock price actual data of the stock issue And a simulation execution step of simulating the correspondence of
[0033]
According to the twelfth aspect of the invention, since the correspondence between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past and the actual stock price data of the stock issue is simulated, the appropriateness of the expected execution probability is determined by the investor or the like. Can be grasped.
[0034]
Further, the contract information providing program according to the invention of claim 13 is a contract information providing program for providing information on a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand. And when a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue is designated, a contract probability calculation step of calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue, and the contract probability calculation step. Executing a contract information output procedure for outputting contract information in which each calculated contract probability is associated with a price.
[0035]
According to the invention of claim 13, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue are designated, the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue. Since the contract information in which the calculated contract probabilities are associated with the prices is output, investors and the like can quickly and efficiently grasp the relationship between each price and the contract probability in the contract probability calculating period.
[0036]
A contract information providing program according to a fourteenth aspect of the present invention provides the contract information providing program according to the thirteenth aspect, wherein the stock price result data extracting means extracts the stock price result data of the designated stock from the stock price result data of each stock name stored in advance. The method further includes a step of calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on the actual share price data extracted by the actual share price data extraction step.
[0037]
According to the invention of claim 14, the stock price actual data of each stock issue is stored in advance in association with each stock issue, and the stock price actual data of the designated stock issue is extracted therefrom. Since the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data, the acquisition of the actual stock price data of the stock can be performed more quickly.
[0038]
The contract information providing program according to the invention of claim 15 is the invention according to claim 13 or 14, wherein the contract probability calculation step includes calculating a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on the stock price actual data of the stock. It is characterized by specifying based on.
[0039]
According to the invention of claim 15, a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue, so that the investor can efficiently input the desired bid price without inputting the desired bid price. The execution probability can be calculated for each appropriate price.
[0040]
Also, the contract information providing program according to the invention of claim 16 is the invention according to claim 13, 14 or 15, wherein the contract probability calculation step is such that the contract probability calculation period and the calculation range of the stock brand and the stock brand are calculated. When designated, a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock and the calculation range.
[0041]
According to the invention of claim 16, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period and a calculation range (for example, a price range expressed as a percentage) for the stock issue are specified, the execution target of the contract probability is calculated. Since the plurality of prices are specified based on the stock price actual data and the calculation range of the stock issue, the execution probability can be calculated efficiently without the execution of the execution probability calculation for the meaningless price.
[0042]
In the contract information providing program according to the invention of claim 17, in the invention of claims 13 to 16, the contract information output step graphically represents the contract probability for each price calculated by the contract probability calculation procedure. It is characterized by outputting data of a contract information graph.
[0043]
According to the seventeenth aspect of the present invention, data of a contract information graph which graphically represents the calculated contract probability for each price is output. Therefore, investors and the like take the price on the horizontal axis and the contract probability on the vertical axis. The relationship between the price and the execution probability can be efficiently grasped in a manner like a distribution function on the axis.
[0044]
The contract information providing program according to the invention of claim 18 is the invention according to claims 13 to 17, wherein the contract probability calculated in the past by the contract probability calculation step and the stock probability of the stock issue and stock price actual data. And a simulation execution procedure for simulating the correspondence of
[0045]
According to this invention, the correspondence between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past and the actual stock price data of the stock issue is simulated. Can be grasped.
[0046]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
Exemplary embodiments of a contract information providing apparatus, a contract information providing method, and a contract information providing program according to the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the present embodiment, a case is shown in which the present invention is applied to a contract information providing system that operates on WWW (World Wide Web), which is one of distributed systems on the Internet.
[0047]
First, the configuration of the contract information providing system according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a configuration of the contract information providing system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the contract information providing system has a configuration in which each of the terminal devices 10a to 10c and the WEB server 12 are connected via the Internet 11.
[0048]
Each of the terminal devices 10a to 10c is an Internet terminal equipped with a WEB browser that can access an HTTP server, and can access various server devices on the Internet via a provider or the like.
[0049]
The WEB server 12 is an apparatus according to the present invention, and is an HTTP server that receives access from various terminal devices 10a to 10c on the Internet and provides a web service such as a homepage. The WEB server 12 does not merely provide a general web service, but also provides information on a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand. More specifically, the WEB server 12 calculates the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices, instead of simply presenting the contract probability corresponding to the desired bid price as in the related art, and sets the horizontal axis to the price and the vertical axis to the vertical axis. Is provided so that investors can quickly and efficiently grasp which price is the appropriate bid price.
[0050]
As shown in FIG. 1, the web server 12 includes an interface unit 120, an input unit 121, a display unit 122, a storage unit 123, and a control unit 124. The interface unit 120 is a network interface for exchanging data with the terminal devices 10a to 10c via the Internet 11, and specifically performs a process according to the TCP / IP protocol.
[0051]
The input unit 121 is an input device such as a keyboard and a mouse, the display unit 122 is a display device such as a liquid crystal panel and a display, and the storage unit 123 is a storage device such as a hard disk device. The storage unit 12 stores a hypertext 123a and stock price result data 123b.
[0052]
The hypertext 123a is a hypertext that forms a window screen to be distributed to the terminal devices 10a to 10c, and the stock price performance data 123b is data in which performance values of stock prices of various stocks are continuously accumulated. The stock price actual data 123b is updated by successively acquiring stock price data at predetermined time intervals from a stock price providing server (not shown).
[0053]
The control unit 124 is a control unit that controls the entire WEB server 12, and includes a server processing unit 124a, a contract probability calculation unit 124b, and a simulation execution unit 124c.
[0054]
The server processing unit 124a is a processing unit for providing a function as an HTTP server to the terminal devices 10a to 10c, and specifically, a storage unit when an access from the terminal devices 10a to 10c is received. The processing of reading out the hypertext 123a stored in 123 and transmitting it to the corresponding terminal devices 10a to 10c is performed.
[0055]
The contract probability calculation unit 124b, when a stock brand and a contract probability calculation period related to the stock brand are designated, based on the stock price actual data 123b of the stock brand stored in the storage unit 123b, the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices. Is a processing unit that calculates each of them. Here, since the contract probability calculation unit 124b does not receive the input of “desired bid price” and calculates the contract probability unlike the related art, it is necessary to specify a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is calculated. is there. For this reason, the contract probability calculation unit 124b specifies a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on the actual stock price data of the stocks and the calculation range (for example, the price range expressed as a percentage). However, a plurality of prices can be specified based only on the actual stock price data of the stock issue.
[0056]
The calculation result (contract probability for each price) by the contract probability calculation unit 124b is transmitted to the terminal devices 10a to 10c as a graph in which the horizontal axis represents the price and the vertical axis represents the contract probability. In addition, a graph showing the transition of the stock price after the present time when the selling contract probability is 20%, the selling contract probability is 50%, the buying contract probability is 50%, and the buying contract probability is 20% is also transmitted. Further, table data indicating the relationship between the stock price, the deviation rate from the closing price, and the buying contract probability (selling contract probability) is also transmitted.
[0057]
The simulation execution unit 124c is a processing unit that simulates the correspondence between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past by the execution probability calculation unit 124b and the actual stock price data of the stock issue, and the simulation result is transmitted to the terminal devices 10a to 10c. 10c.
[0058]
Next, an example of the contract probability window provided by the web server 12 shown in FIG. 1 will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the contract probability window provided by the web server 12 shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, when a condition code is input into the input box 21 for the brand code or the brand name, the input box 22 for the period, and the input box 23 for the probability range, and the button 24 for calculating the execution probability is clicked, each price is displayed. A graph 25 showing the relationship between the execution probabilities (buying execution probability, selling execution probability) is displayed. In addition, a graph 26 showing the transition of the stock price after the present time when the selling contract probability is 20%, the selling contract probability is 50%, the buying contract probability is 50%, and the buying contract probability is 20% is displayed. Further, a table 27 showing the relationship between the stock price, the deviation rate from the closing price, and the buying contract probability (selling contract probability) is displayed.
[0059]
By providing such a contract probability window 20, an investor or the like can determine an appropriate limit price in consideration of a contract probability for each price, and thereby can efficiently conclude a trade.
[0060]
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing another example of the contract probability window 20 provided by the web server 12 shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, a graph 28 is added here in comparison with the graph shown in FIG. This graph 28 is a graph showing the relationship between each price and the contract probability (buying contract probability, selling contract probability), similarly to the graph 25 already described.
[0061]
When actually placing a limit order, since there are many cases where the user wants to know the "limit price that satisfies the contract probability", by displaying such a graph 28 in the contract probability window 20, it is also possible to more efficiently determine an appropriate limit price. it can.
[0062]
Next, a display example displayed when the button 28 for executing the simulation shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 is clicked will be described. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a display example displayed when the button 28 for executing the simulation shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 is clicked.
[0063]
As shown in the figure, a graph 31 showing a correspondence relationship between the execution probability (Forecast Probability) of the stock issue calculated in the past and the actual stock price data of the stock issue (Actual Probability) is displayed on the execution probability window 20. . Here, the Forecast Probability is a value obtained by dividing the past predicted medium probability into 20 groups every 5%, and the Actual Probability is a percentage of the cases where the stock price actually reaches in each predicted probability group. This is the value calculated as a result. Therefore, the closer the broken line 32 shown in the figure is to the solid line 33, the higher the prediction accuracy is.
[0064]
Further, a graph 34 showing the relationship between the sample (case) belonging to each probability group and the case where the stock price has actually reached in each probability group is also displayed on the contract probability window 20.
[0065]
Next, a processing procedure performed between the terminal device 10a and the WEB server 12 shown in FIG. 1 will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure performed between the terminal device 10a and the WEB server 12 shown in FIG.
[0066]
As shown in the figure, when the web browser is started on the terminal device 10 and accesses the web server via the Internet 11 (step S201), the web browser 12 provides a main menu (not shown) (step S201). Step S202), the main menu is displayed on the terminal device 10a.
[0067]
When the execution probability calculation is selected on the main menu (step S203), the fact is notified to the WEB server 12, and the WEB server 12 provides the execution probability window 20 shown in FIG. In step S204, the contract probability window 20 is displayed on the terminal device 10a.
[0068]
Here, if an investor or the like inputs a brand code, a period, and a probability range on the contract probability window 20 and instructs contract probability calculation (step S205), the contract probability calculating unit 124b of the WEB server 12 starts. A contract probability calculation is executed (step S206).
[0069]
Then, display data is created based on the calculation result (step S207), the created display data is transmitted to the terminal device 10a (step S208), and the display data is displayed on the terminal device 10a.
[0070]
Next, the execution procedure of the contract probability shown in step S206 of FIG. 5 will be described in more detail. FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating the execution procedure of the execution probability shown in step S206 of FIG. 5 in more detail.
[0071]
As shown in the figure, the contract probability calculation unit 124b of the WEB server 12 first obtains the past stock price data 123b of the designated brand from the storage unit 123 (step S301), and calculates the past average price width. The process of calculating the standard deviation of the past price range is performed for each period (steps S302 to S303).
[0072]
Then, after acquiring the quote price (range of stock price fluctuation) (step S304), the target stock price is set (step S305), and the fluctuation rate to the target stock price, the past average price range, and the standard deviation of the past price range are set as probability. Applying to the density function (step S306), a process for calculating the contract probability is performed for each period (step S307), the highest contract probability is adopted (step S308), and the target stock price is changed (step S309). ), The process proceeds to step S306, and similar processing is performed for each target stock price. If the series of processes (steps S301 to S309) have been performed for both buying and selling, the process ends.
[0073]
As described above, in the present embodiment, when a brand code, a period, and a probability range are specified on the terminal devices 10a to 10c, the contract probability calculating unit 124b of the WEB server 12 sets the contract probability for each price. Is calculated, and a graph showing the relationship between the price and the contract probability is provided to the terminal devices 10a to 10c, so that the investor can quickly and efficiently determine the relationship between each price and the contract probability in the contract probability calculation period. You can understand well.
[0074]
In the present embodiment, the present invention is applied to the case where WWW on the Internet is used. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and is realized by using a stand-alone computer or using a dedicated network. You can also.
[0075]
Further, in the present embodiment, the case where only one brand is designated on the contract probability window 20 has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and a plurality of brands can be input. In this case, since the value of the basket is obtained, the vertical axis of the graph 26 and the horizontal axis of the graph 25 shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 are not prices but percentages.
[0076]
Further, in the present embodiment, the case where the stock price actual data 123b is stored in the storage unit 123 has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the stock price actual data 123b is acquired via the Internet 11 each time. You can also.
[0077]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the present invention, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period related to the stock issue are designated, the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue. It is configured to calculate and output contract information that associates each calculated contract probability with the price, so that investors and the like can quickly and efficiently grasp the relationship between each price and the contract probability in the contract probability calculation period. .
[0078]
According to the present invention, the stock price performance data of each stock issue is stored in advance in association with each stock issue, and the stock price performance data of the designated stock issue is extracted therefrom, and the extracted stock price performance data is extracted. Since the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the data, the acquisition of the actual stock price data of the stock can be performed more quickly.
[0079]
Further, according to the present invention, since a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated are specified based on the actual stock price data of the stock issue, it is efficient and appropriate without an investor or the like inputting a desired bid price. The execution probability for each price can be calculated.
[0080]
Further, according to the present invention, when a stock issue and a contract probability calculation period and a calculation range (for example, a price range expressed as a percentage) for the stock issue are specified, a plurality of contract probability calculation targets are calculated. Is configured based on the actual stock price data and the calculation range of the stock issue, so that the execution probability can be calculated efficiently with the exception of execution probability calculation for meaningless prices.
[0081]
Further, according to the present invention, since it is configured to output data of a contract information graph in which the calculated contract probability for each price is represented in a graph, investors and the like take the price on the horizontal axis and the contract probability on the vertical axis. It is possible to efficiently grasp the relationship between the price and the execution probability in a manner such as the distribution function described above.
[0082]
In addition, according to the present invention, since the relationship between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past and the actual stock price data of the stock issue is simulated, investors and the like can grasp the appropriateness of the expected execution probability. can do.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a configuration of a contract information providing system according to the present embodiment.
FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a contract probability window provided by the web server shown in FIG.
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing another example of the contract probability window provided by the web server shown in FIG. 1;
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a display example displayed when a button for executing the simulation shown in FIGS. 2 and 3 is clicked;
5 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure performed between the terminal device shown in FIG. 1 and a web server.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the execution procedure of the execution probability shown in FIG. 5 in further detail.
[Explanation of symbols]
10a to 10c terminal device
11 Internet
12 WEB server
120 Interface section
121 Input unit
122 Display
123 storage unit
123a Hypertext
123b Stock Price Data
124 control unit
124a server processing unit
124b Execution probability calculation unit
124c simulation execution unit
20 Contract probability window

Claims (18)

所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供装置であって、
前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定手段と、
前記約定確率算定手段により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力手段と
を備えたことを特徴とする約定情報提供装置。A contract information providing device for providing information relating to a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is performed for a predetermined stock brand,
A contract probability calculating means for calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on actual stock price data of the stock issue when a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue and the stock issue is designated;
A contract information providing device, comprising: contract information output means for outputting contract information in which each contract probability calculated by the contract probability calculating means is associated with a price. 各株式銘柄についての株価実績データをそれぞれ株式銘柄に対応づけて記憶する株価実績データ記憶手段と、前記株価実績データ記憶手段から指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出手段とをさらに備え、前記約定確率算定手段は、前記株価実績データ抽出手段により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする請求項１に記載の約定情報提供装置。A stock price actual data storage means for storing the stock price actual data for each stock issue in association with each stock issue, and a stock price actual data extracting means for extracting the stock price actual data of the stock issue designated from the stock price actual data storage means; 2. The contract probability calculation unit according to claim 1, wherein the contract probability calculation unit calculates contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on the stock price actual data extracted by the stock price actual data extraction unit. Information providing device. 前記約定確率算定手段は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項１または２に記載の約定情報提供装置。3. The contract information providing device according to claim 1, wherein the contract probability calculating means specifies a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on actual stock price data of the stock. 前記約定確率算定手段は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項１、２または３に記載の約定情報提供装置。When the execution probability calculation period and the calculation range of the stock issue and the stock issue are specified, the execution probability calculation means calculates a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated based on stock price actual data of the stock issue and 4. The contract information providing device according to claim 1, wherein the contract information is specified based on the calculation range. 前記約定情報出力手段は、前記約定確率算定手段により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする請求項１〜４のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供装置。The contract information output unit outputs data of a contract information graph representing a contract probability for each price calculated by the contract probability calculating unit in a graph. The described contract information providing device. 前記約定確率算定手段により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行手段をさらに備えたことを特徴とする請求項１〜５のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供装置。6. A simulation execution means for simulating a correspondence relationship between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past by the execution probability calculation means and actual stock price data of the stock issue, wherein the simulation execution means is further provided. The contract information providing device according to any one of the above. 所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供方法であって、
前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定工程と、
前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力工程と
を含んだことを特徴とする約定情報提供方法。A contract information providing method for providing information related to a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is performed for a predetermined stock brand,
A contract probability calculation step of calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on actual stock price data of the stock issue when a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue and the stock issue is designated;
A contract information output step of outputting contract information in which each contract probability calculated by the contract probability calculation procedure is associated with a price. あらかじめ記憶した各株式銘柄についての株価実績データから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出工程をさらに含み、前記約定確率算定工程は、前記株価実績データ抽出工程により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする請求項７に記載の約定情報提供方法。The method further includes a stock price performance data extraction step of extracting stock price performance data of the designated stock brand from the stock price performance data for each stock brand stored in advance, wherein the execution probability calculation step is extracted by the stock price performance data extraction step. The contract information providing method according to claim 7, wherein the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the stock price actual data. 前記約定確率算定工程は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項７または８に記載の約定情報提供方法。9. The contract information providing method according to claim 7, wherein the contract probability calculating step specifies a plurality of prices for which the contract probability is to be calculated based on actual stock price data of the stock. 前記約定確率算定工程は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項７、８または９に記載の約定情報提供方法。The execution probability calculation step, when the execution probability calculation period and the calculation range of the stock issue and the stock issue is specified, a plurality of prices to be calculated the execution probability, the stock price performance data of the stock issue and The contract information providing method according to claim 7, 8 or 9, wherein the contract information is specified based on the calculation range. 前記約定情報出力工程は、前記約定確率算定工程により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする請求項７〜１０のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供方法。The said contract information output process outputs the data of the contract information graph which represented the contract probability for each price calculated by the said contract probability calculation process in graph form, The claim 7 characterized by the above-mentioned. How to provide the contract information described. 前記約定確率算定工程により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行工程をさらに含んだことを特徴とする請求項７〜１１のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供方法。12. The simulation execution step according to claim 7, further comprising a simulation execution step of simulating a correspondence relationship between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past in the execution probability calculation step and actual stock price data of the stock issue. The contract information providing method described in any one of the above. 所定の株式銘柄を指し値注文する際に用いられる該株式銘柄の約定確率に係る情報を提供する約定情報提供プログラムであって、
前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間が指定された場合に、当該株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定する約定確率算定手順と、
前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各約定確率を値段に対応づけた約定情報を出力する約定情報出力手順と
をコンピュータに実行させることを特徴とする約定情報提供プログラム。A contract information providing program for providing information related to a contract probability of the stock brand used when a limit order is placed on a predetermined stock brand,
When a contract probability calculation period for the stock issue and the stock issue is designated, a contract probability calculation procedure for calculating a contract probability for each of a plurality of prices based on actual stock price data of the stock issue,
A contract information providing program for causing a computer to execute a contract information output step of outputting contract information in which each contract probability calculated by the contract probability calculation step is associated with a price. あらかじめ記憶した各株式銘柄についての株価実績データから指定された株式銘柄の株価実績データを抽出する株価実績データ抽出手順をさらに含み、前記約定確率算定手順は、前記株価実績データ抽出手順により抽出された株価実績データに基づいて複数の値段ごとの約定確率をそれぞれ算定することを特徴とする請求項１３に記載の約定情報提供プログラム。The method further includes a stock price performance data extraction procedure for extracting stock price performance data of the designated stock brand from the stock price performance data for each stock brand stored in advance, wherein the execution probability calculation procedure is extracted by the stock price performance data extraction procedure. 14. The contract information providing program according to claim 13, wherein the contract probability for each of a plurality of prices is calculated based on the actual stock price data. 前記約定確率算定手順は、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データに基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項１３または１４に記載の約定情報提供プログラム。The execution information providing program according to claim 13 or 14, wherein the execution probability calculation step specifies a plurality of prices for which the execution probability is to be calculated based on actual stock price data of the stock. 前記約定確率算定手順は、前記株式銘柄および該株式銘柄に係る約定確率算定期間並びに算定範囲が指定された場合に、前記約定確率の算定対象となる複数の値段を前記株式銘柄の株価実績データおよび前記算定範囲に基づいて特定することを特徴とする請求項１３、１４または１５に記載の約定情報提供プログラム。The execution probability calculation procedure, when the execution period and the calculation range of the stock issue and the stock issue are specified, the plurality of prices to be calculated the execution probability, the stock price performance data of the stock issue and The contract information providing program according to claim 13, wherein the identification information is specified based on the calculation range. 前記約定情報出力手順は、前記約定確率算定手順により算定された各値段ごとの約定確率をグラフ表現した約定情報グラフのデータを出力することを特徴とする請求項１３〜１６のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供プログラム。17. The contract information output procedure according to any one of claims 13 to 16, wherein a contract information graph data representing a contract probability for each price calculated by the contract probability calculation procedure is output. The described contract information providing program. 前記約定確率算定手順により過去に算定された前記株式銘柄の約定確率と前記株式銘柄の株価実績データとの対応関係をシミュレーションするシミュレーション実行手順をさらに含んだことを特徴とする請求項１３〜１７のいずれか一つに記載の約定情報提供プログラム。18. The simulation execution procedure according to claim 13, further comprising a simulation execution procedure for simulating a correspondence relationship between the execution probability of the stock issue calculated in the past by the execution probability calculation procedure and actual stock price data of the stock issue. A contract information providing program described in any one of them.
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