JP2002304213A - Equipment deterioration rate estimating system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To automatically estimate a deterioration rate of equipment. SOLUTION: This equipment deterioration rate estimating system can be composed of a data table 10 having a spreadsheet process, for example. In the data table 10, component parts 11 of the equipment are inputted along an ordinate while management reference value information 12, equipment renewal factor part information 13 and inspection record information 14 are inputted along an abscissa. 'Deterioration rate information 14c' is information about a deterioration rate of each component part calculated by a numerical formula in consideration of a deterioration characteristic of each the component part on the basis of the inspection record information 14 and the management reference value information 12. A maximum value among the deterioration rates of the respective equipment renewal factor parts is the deterioration rate of the equipment, and the earliest timing of replacement timing of the respective equipment renewal factor parts can be estimated as renewal timing of the whole equipment.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

The present invention relates to a system for predicting a deterioration rate of equipment.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Generally, a facility is updated to a new facility based on management indexes such as aging and the number of times of use, and in consideration of the degree of occurrence of a failure such as a failure. For example, in the case of electric power facilities, from the viewpoint of maintaining functions and ensuring safety, for example, the time of renewal is predicted over the years since the start of use of the facilities based on standards such as JEC (Japanese Electrical Committee).

[0003]

From the viewpoint of equipment management, it is desirable that the equipment fund for updating equipment can be budgeted in advance. However, the prediction of the renewal time over time does not reflect the influence of the use environment, the use frequency, and the like, and the state of deterioration of the equipment does not always match the current state, and the predicted renewal time may not be appropriate.

Accordingly, the present invention provides an equipment deterioration rate prediction system for automatically estimating the deterioration rate of equipment in order to facilitate budgeting for equipment replacement costs.

[0005]

According to a first aspect of the present invention, there is provided an equipment deterioration rate prediction system, comprising: equipment ledger information on a state of equipment from past to present; management reference value information for measuring the deterioration rate of the equipment; Recording means for recording the deterioration characteristic information of the equipment, and a first calculating means for calculating the past and present deterioration rates of the equipment based on the equipment ledger information and the management reference value information.
Processing means, and a second processing means for predicting the deterioration rate of the equipment in the future based on the temporal recording of the deterioration rate of the equipment calculated by the first processing means and the deterioration characteristic information, And

[0008] The equipment deterioration rate prediction system according to claim 2 manages a plurality of arbitrarily determined equipment, and calculates equipment ledger information on the state of each equipment from past to present and the deterioration rate of each equipment. Recording means for recording the management reference value information to be measured, the deterioration characteristic information of each of the facilities, and the management burden ratio information of each facility with respect to all the facilities within the management target; and based on the facility ledger information and the management reference value information. To
First processing means for calculating the deterioration rate of each facility in the past, and the deterioration rate of each equipment in the future based on the time-dependent record and deterioration characteristic information of the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the first processing means, For the second processing means to predict over, at any time in the past and in the future, add the product of the management burden ratio of each equipment to the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the second processing means, and manage And a third processing unit that calculates a deterioration index indicating a deterioration rate of the entire target facility.

[0007]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS An embodiment of the equipment deterioration rate prediction system according to the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

First, an equipment deterioration rate prediction system for managing a single equipment will be described. This system predicts the deterioration rate of equipment over time based on equipment ledger information that records the state of equipment at the time of patrol inspection and disassembly inspection from the time of installation of the equipment to the present. It can be used to judge when to update the equipment based on the prediction. Hereinafter, the configuration and processing flow will be described.

This system can be constituted by a data table 10 provided with a spreadsheet process, for example, as shown in FIG. In the data table 10, the component 11 of the equipment is input on the vertical axis, the management reference value information 12 for calculating the deterioration rate on the horizontal axis, and the part that causes the equipment update (hereinafter referred to as “the equipment update factor”). The facility update factor part information 13 as to whether the part corresponds to “part”), and inspection record information 14 at the time of patrol and inspection from the past to the present for each constituent part are input. The data table 10 is configured to calculate a deterioration rate (predicted value) of each component 11 from the present to the future in a spreadsheet process based on the management reference value 12 and the inspection record information 14. .

Hereinafter, the data table 10 shown in FIG. 1 will be described in detail.

In the column 11 of "components", the components (for example, A to G) constituting this equipment are sequentially input. As a result, the state of deterioration of each component of the equipment can be managed by the system.

In the column 12 of "management reference value information", a value obtained by numerically evaluating a management criterion in a case where replacement of the deterioration state of a component is necessary for each component is input. For example, if the component A is a drive mechanism, and if the management criterion is set such that “the drive mechanism is replaced when the number of operations of the drive mechanism exceeds 100,000”, the number of times the drive mechanism is operated The value of “100,000 times” is the management reference value. Further, when the component B is an electric cutoff switch mechanism,
When the management standard is set to “Replace the switch mechanism when the operation speed of the switch mechanism becomes 48 (ms) or more”, the operation speed of the switch mechanism is “48 (ms)”.
Is the management reference value.

In the column 13 of "equipment update factor part information", a judgment symbol for judging whether each component is an equipment update factor part is input. In general, whether or not a component is the cause of a facility update is determined by comparing the cost of replacing the entire equipment with the cost of replacing each component. When it is determined that updating the entire equipment is cheaper than performing the equipment, the component is determined to be the equipment update factor. The judgment symbol is a symbol for performing a process of judging whether or not it is the equipment update factor part in the computer processing.

For example, the drive mechanism A is not a consumable and requires replacement costs close to the renewal cost of the entire equipment.
If it is determined that it is cheaper to update the entire equipment than to replace only the equipment, enter “1” in the column of the drive mechanism A because it is the equipment update factor part. Also, switch mechanism B
When it is determined that it is cheaper to replace only the switch mechanism B than to replace the entire equipment because it is a consumable item, enter "0" in the switch mechanism B column because it is not the equipment update factor part .

The column 14 of "inspection record information" is information which records the state of each component in the past inspection and overhaul of each component. This column contains the inspection date information 14a, inspection record information 14b, and deterioration rate information for each past inspection.
14c is recorded.

Of these, "check date information 14a" and "check record information 14b" are information input at the time of check.
The “deterioration rate information 14c” is information on the degradation rate of each component calculated based on the inspection record information and the management reference value information and using a mathematical expression that takes into account the degradation characteristics of each component. The degradation characteristics of each component may be determined by a constant linear relationship with time, or may be determined by a constant linear relationship with the number of uses. In this embodiment, the deterioration characteristic information is recorded as a mathematical expression on a data table for calculating the deterioration rate.

For example, the drive mechanism A that manages the deterioration rate by the number of operations records the date of the patrol inspection in which the number of operations of the drive mechanism A is recorded in the column of “inspection date information”, and “inspection record information” Column records the number of operations of the drive mechanism A during the patrol inspection (for example, 500 times), and records the number obtained by dividing the number of operations during the patrol inspection by the management reference value in the column of “deterioration rate information”. are doing. Since the number of operations is checked by checking the record of the operation counter at the time of patrol inspection (which does not require disassembly), the past deterioration rate is calculated for each patrol inspection,
They are stored as information. Here, the reason why the “deterioration rate” is calculated by dividing the number of operations during the patrol inspection by the management reference value is that the initial value of the number of operations is 0 and the deterioration characteristic of the driving mechanism A is proportional to the number of operations. It takes into account what you are doing.

The switch mechanism B that manages the deterioration rate by the operation speed records the date of the overhaul inspection in which the number of times of operation of the switch mechanism B is recorded in the column 14a of “inspection date information”.
Switch mechanism B for disassembly and inspection in the column of "Inspection record information"
Record the operating status (for example, 43.1) of the
In the column of (1), the calculated degradation rate at the time of the inspection is recorded based on the operation state at the time of the overhaul inspection and the management reference value, taking into account the degradation characteristics of the switch mechanism B. Since this operation speed is checked by inspecting the operation status at the time of overhaul, the operation status for each overhaul is stored as inspection record record information.

The deterioration rate of the switch mechanism B is, for example, 42.0 (m
In the case of s), the operating speed is reduced by 1.1 (ms) during the period from the time of installation to the time of inspection. Accordingly, the deterioration rate is calculated by the following equation.

[0020]

(Equation 1)

Next, "current deterioration rate" and "future deterioration rate"
In columns 15 and 16 of, a predicted value obtained by temporally predicting the deterioration rate from the present to the future based on the record of the deterioration rate at the time of the past inspection is recorded. The predicted value of the deterioration rate is based on the record of the deterioration rate at the time of the past inspection, and is applied to a predetermined linear function in consideration of the deterioration characteristic of the component part to perform the prediction.

For example, when the frequency of use of the drive mechanism A is constant, the deterioration rate of the drive mechanism A evaluated by the number of operations changes in proportion to time from the past to the present and from the present to the future over time. As such, the present and future deterioration rates are calculated. The switch mechanism B is evaluated based on the operating speed. If the rate at which the operating speed slows down changes over time, the current and future deterioration rates are calculated using a calculation formula that takes into account its deterioration characteristics. .

According to this system, the deterioration rate of each component of the equipment from the present to the future can be calculated by the above processing, so that the replacement time of each component can be predicted. In addition, at this time, the maximum value of the deterioration rates of the equipment update factor parts is the deterioration rate of the equipment, and the earliest time of the replacement time of each equipment update factor part can be predicted as the update time of the entire equipment. it can. This makes it possible to predict the time of replacement of each component and the time of renewal of the entire equipment, thereby facilitating creation of an equipment renewal plan including a budget for future capital investment.

Using the above-described equipment deterioration rate prediction system for managing a single equipment, a plurality of equipments are managed, and the deterioration rate of each equipment is obtained from now to the future.
It is possible to construct a system for predicting equipment to be updated every two years from now to the future.

Next, an equipment deterioration rate prediction system that manages a plurality of equipment will be described.

In this system, the deterioration rate of each facility is multiplied by the renewal burden ratio of each facility, and this sum is calculated as the deterioration rate of a plurality of facilities as a whole. This is to predict the deterioration rate of the entire equipment in the future. The deterioration rate of each equipment is the same as that of the equipment deterioration rate prediction system that manages the single equipment described above, and is obtained by the maximum value of the deterioration rate of the update factor part of each equipment.

This system can be composed of, for example, a data table 30 having a spreadsheet process as shown in FIG. In this data table 30, each equipment 31 (for example, S1 to S13) to be managed is input on the vertical axis,
On the horizontal axis, information such as update cost information of each facility and information on deterioration rates of past and future of each facility is input.

First, in the right column of the input column 31 of each facility, update cost information 33 on the cost required for updating each facility is entered. The renewal cost is calculated, for example, by adding the actual cost of the renewal equipment and the renewal work cost. Renewal cost information column
In a lowermost column 34 of 33, the renewal cost 33 of each facility is added to calculate the renewal cost information 34 of a plurality of facilities as a whole. In the right column of the update cost information column 33, the update burden ratio information 35 of each facility is calculated. Renewal burden ratio of each facility 35
Is obtained by dividing the renewal cost 33 of each facility by the renewal cost 34 of a plurality of facilities to be managed. The lowermost column 36 of the update burden ratio information column 35 is the total amount of the update burden ratio 35 of each facility.
Has become 1.

A column 37 of “deterioration rate information” is provided on the right column of the column 35 of the update burden ratio, and information on the degradation rate of each facility from the past to the future for each year is stored as the degradation rate 38 of each facility. The input is divided into 39 deterioration ratios. In the column 38 of the past deterioration rate of the equipment, an actually measured value calculated based on the record at the time of inspection is input. In the column 38 of the present to future deterioration rate, a predicted value of the present to future deterioration rate calculated by the above-described equipment deterioration prediction system for a single equipment is input.

The deterioration ratio column 39 is designed to calculate a value obtained by multiplying the deterioration ratio 38 of each facility by the update burden ratio information 35 in a spreadsheet process. Since the renewal burden ratio 35 is a numerical value indicating the weight of each device with respect to the renewal cost of the entire facility, the deterioration rate of each facility obtained by multiplying the degradation rate 38 of each facility by the renewal burden ratio information 35 is the total It shows the deterioration rate of each facility that contributes to the deterioration rate. Deterioration ratio information column 39
In the lowermost column 40, the deterioration rate 39 of each facility is added for each year to calculate the deterioration rate of the plurality of facilities as a whole.

That is, the deterioration rate of the plurality of facilities to be managed can be calculated by the sum of the deterioration rate A of each facility multiplied by the renewal burden ratio K of each facilityΣ (An × Kn) ( n is the number of equipment).

According to this system, the deterioration rate of a plurality of facilities can be predicted for each year from the present to the future, so that the update management of each facility can be examined from the deterioration rates of the plurality of facilities. become.

While the embodiment of the equipment deterioration rate prediction system of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment.

[0034]

According to the first aspect of the present invention, the equipment deterioration rate prediction system includes equipment ledger information on the state of the equipment from past to present, management reference value information for measuring the deterioration rate of the equipment, and deterioration characteristics of the equipment. Recording means that respectively recorded information, based on the equipment ledger information and management reference value information, first processing means to calculate the past and current deterioration rate of equipment,
The second processing means for predicting the deterioration rate of the equipment in the future based on the time-lapse record of the deterioration rate of the equipment calculated by the first processing means and the deterioration characteristic information includes the deterioration rate of the equipment. Of the future of the facility, and it becomes easy to prepare a facility renewal plan that includes the renewal time of the entire facility and the budget for future capital investment.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, the equipment deterioration rate prediction system manages a plurality of arbitrarily determined equipments, and obtains equipment ledger information on the state of each of the equipments from the past to the present and the deterioration rate of each of the equipments. Recording means for recording the management reference value information to be measured, the deterioration characteristic information of each of the facilities, and the management burden ratio information of each facility with respect to all the facilities within the management target; and based on the facility ledger information and the management reference value information. To
First processing means for calculating the deterioration rate of each facility in the past, and the deterioration rate of each equipment in the future based on the time-dependent record and deterioration characteristic information of the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the first processing means, For the second processing means to predict over, at any time in the past and in the future, add the product of the management burden ratio of each equipment to the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the second processing means, and manage Since there is provided a third processing means for calculating a deterioration index indicating the deterioration rate of the entire target equipment, the deterioration rates of the entire plurality of equipment can be predicted from the present to the future, and update management of each equipment can be performed. It is possible to study from the deterioration rate of the whole equipment.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a data table structure of an equipment deterioration rate prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing a data table structure of the equipment deterioration rate prediction system according to the embodiment of the present invention.

[Explanation of symbols]

 10 Equipment deterioration rate prediction system data table 11 Component information 12 Management reference value information 13 Equipment update factor information 14 Inspection record information 14a Inspection date information 14b Inspection record information 14c Degradation rate information 15 Current degradation rate information 16 Future degradation Rate information 30 Data table for equipment deterioration rate prediction system 31 Equipment information 33 Update cost information 34 Update cost information for multiple facilities 35 Update burden ratio information 37 Deterioration rate information 38 Deterioration rate 39 Deterioration rate 40

 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continuing on the front page (72) Takashi Sugihara 3-3-22 Nakanoshima, Kita-ku, Osaka-shi, Osaka Prefecture Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. (72) Toshiyuki Yamanoi 3-3-1 Nakanoshima, Kita-ku, Osaka, Osaka 22 Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. F term (reference) 5H223 AA19 BB08 DD09 EE06 EE30 FF08 FF09

Claims (2)

[Claims] 1. Recorder for recording equipment ledger information on the state of the equipment from past to present, management reference value information for measuring the deterioration rate of the equipment, and deterioration characteristic information of the equipment, and the equipment ledger information Based on the management reference value information and the first processing means to calculate the deterioration rate of the past equipment, based on the time-dependent recording and deterioration characteristic information of the deterioration rate of the equipment calculated by the first processing means, And a second processing means for predicting the deterioration rate of the equipment in the future. 2. A plurality of arbitrarily determined facilities are to be managed,
Equipment ledger information about the state of each facility from the past to present, management reference value information for measuring the deterioration rate of each facility,
Degradation characteristic information of each of the facilities, and recording means for recording management burden ratio information of each of the facilities with respect to all the facilities within the management object, respectively, based on the facility ledger information and the management reference value information, the past facilities A first processing means for calculating the deterioration rate of each of the equipment, a time-dependent record of the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the first processing means and the deterioration characteristic information, to predict the deterioration rate of each equipment in the future The processing means of (2), at any time in the past and in the future, add the deterioration rate of each equipment calculated by the second processing means multiplied by the management burden ratio of each equipment, and add And a third processing means for calculating a deterioration index indicating the overall deterioration rate.