CN1566993A - Diffusion status forecasting method and diffusion status forecasting system for diffusing substance - Google Patents

Abstract

It relates to a method to predict the diffusing status of diffusion substance discharged in the air. The method are the following: to convert the diffusion substance into particular; to pre-calculate the moving position of the particulars generated by the discharging source and to relevantly record the moving positions and its elapsed time; to pre-set the intensity data of the particular intensity along elapsed time; then to calculate the particular intensity of its generation moment according to the elapsed time and the above intensity data and to record each matching moving position and elapsed time and intensity . The concentration of the set area in set time can be calculated through integrated calculate the intensity of existing particulars in the set area.

Description

The diffusion-condition predicting method and the diffusion-condition predicting system of diffusate

Technical field

The present invention relates to the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate.The present invention be by prediction from diffuse source (for example using the facility and the chimney of radiomaterial) be discharged into the atmosphere material (for example radiomaterial and gas) how in atmosphere diffusion predict material concentration that each place changes constantly.

Background technology

Now developed radiomaterial because of accident when the facility of handling radiomaterial leaks into the outside, the prediction range of scatter of radiomaterial and the radiomaterial concentration in each place, prediction might suffer the diffusion-condition predicting method in the area of the danger that radiomaterial brings.

This diffusion-condition predicting method is not only applicable to the diffusion-condition of predicting radiomaterial, under the situation that the gas (cigarette) that also can discharge in the chimney of factory spreads in atmosphere, be applicable to the gas concentration of calculating each place, and in the analysis of environmental assessment, be applicable to the diffusion-condition of analyzing diffusate.

Want to carry out following two kinds of calculating by calculating the diffusion-condition that prediction is discharged into the material in the atmosphere.

(1) gas-condition prediction and calculation,

(2) diffusion-condition predicting calculates.

The gas-condition prediction and calculation of above-mentioned (1) is meant according to meteorological measurings such as meteorological GPV (Grid PointValue) data and AMEDAS, the partial differential equation that is used for the analyse atmos phenomenon by calculating, obtain from true and phenomenon take place (for example radiomaterial is leaked to the outside) the time be carved into regulation target constantly between each majority constantly in the certain hour section estimate wind direction, the wind speed in place (grid point position), just refer to obtain the calculating of the gas-condition of the wind speed field data in each moment in certain period of expression.

In addition, the diffusion-condition predicting of above-mentioned (2) calculates the diffusion equation that the concentration that is meant by the diffusate that will leak and proterties and the substitution of above-mentioned wind speed field data are used for the disperse state of substance for calculation (particle), obtains the calculating that the grid of each time point is put locational diffusate concentration.

＜gas-condition prediction and calculation is introduced 〉

At first introduce the overview of gas-condition prediction and calculation.Meteorological measuring, for example meteorological GPV data are sent once by per 12 hours of weather service support center.When this meteorology GPV data representation is stretched along the North and South direction edge at the earth's surface, east-west direction space distance for many longitude imaginary lines of predetermined distance (2Km) and at the earth's surface along east-west direction when stretching, North and South direction space distance is the weather data (comprising wind vector (wind direction, wind speed), air pressure, temperature, humidity) in the place (this is referred to as generous lattice point position) of a plurality of latitude imaginary lines intersections of predetermined distance (2Km).And meteorological GPV data are as the weather data of each generous lattice point position, unifiedly send delivery time and amount to 51 hours data at interval in 3 hours from delivery time following 3 hours, following 6 hours, following 9 hours etc. is each.

Because the weather data of the generous lattice point position of above-mentioned meteorological GPV data is sayed from space angle, generous lattice point position is wide at a distance of 2Km each other, and it is apart 3 hours from the time angle, thereby only depend on gas-condition (wind direction, the wind speed) data shown in the weather data of this generous lattice point position, be the wind speed field data, can't calculate the diffusion concentration of diffusate.

Therefore be necessary according to spatiality and all rough meteorological measuring of timeliness, be used for the partial differential equation of analyse atmos phenomenon, obtain from the aspect, space and gas-condition (wind direction, wind speed etc.) that the time aspect is all more fine and closely woven by calculating.

Therefore between the generous lattice point position of calculating district to be calculated (predefined specific region at the earth's surface) setting, set lattice point position.Lattice point position configuration is when stretching along the North and South direction edge at the earth's surface, the space of east-west direction distance is for a plurality of longitude imaginary lines of predetermined distance (50m) with when stretching along the east-west direction edge at the earth's surface, and the mutual spacing of North and South direction is the place of a plurality of latitude imaginary lines intersections of predetermined distance (50m).

And calculate the partial differential equation be used for the analyse atmos phenomenon by difference analysis, obtain from calculating beginning the lattice point position of section (for example every 20 seconds kinds) and the weather data of generous lattice point position at regular intervals.As the partial differential equation of analyse atmos phenomenon, can use Colorado State University and Mission Reseavch company to develop, use the fundamental equation of the analysis wind speed field of RAMS (Regional Atmosphevie Modeling System) representation.

The fundamental equation of the analysis wind speed field of this usefulness RAMS representation is that diffusion equation and the continous way by equation of motion, thermal equation of energy formula, moisture constitutes, with following formula (1)～formula (6) expression.

(mathematical expression 1)

Equation of motion:

$\frac{\∂u}{\∂t}=-u\frac{\∂u}{\∂x}-v\frac{\∂u}{\∂y}-w\frac{\∂u}{\∂z}-\mathrm{\θ}\frac{{\∂\mathrm{\π}}^{\′}}{\∂x}+\mathrm{fv}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x}\left(K_m\frac{\∂u}{\∂x}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂y}\left(K_m\frac{\∂u}{\∂y}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂z}\left(K_m\frac{\∂u}{\∂z}\right)----\left(1\right)$

$\frac{\∂v}{\∂t}=-u\frac{\∂v}{\∂x}-v\frac{\∂u}{\∂y}-w\frac{\∂v}{\∂z}-\mathrm{\θ}\frac{{\∂\mathrm{\π}}^{\′}}{\∂y}+\mathrm{fu}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x}\left(K_m\frac{\∂v}{\∂x}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂y}\left(K_m\frac{\∂v}{\∂y}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂z}\left(K_m\frac{\∂v}{\∂z}\right)----\left(2\right)$

$\frac{\∂w}{\∂t}=-u\frac{\∂w}{\∂x}-v\frac{\∂w}{\∂y}-w\frac{\∂w}{\∂z}-\mathrm{\θ}\frac{{\∂\mathrm{\π}}^{\′}}{\∂z}-\frac{g{\mathrm{\θ}}_v^{\′}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_0}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x}\left(K_m\frac{\∂w}{\∂x}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂y}\left(K_m\frac{\∂w}{\∂y}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂z}\left(K_m\frac{\∂w}{\∂z}\right)----\left(3\right)$

The thermal equation of energy formula:

$\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂t}=-u\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂x}-v\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂y}-w\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂z}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x}\left(K_h\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂x}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂y}\left(K_h\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂y}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂z}\left(K_h\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂z}\right)+{\left(\frac{{\∂\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{il}}}{\∂t}\right)}_{\mathrm{rad}}----\left(4\right)$

The moisture diffusion equation:

$\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂t}=-u\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂x}-v\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂y}-w\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂z}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x}\left(K_h\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂x}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂y}\left(K_h\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂y}\right)+\frac{\∂}{\∂z}\left(K_h\frac{\∂r_n}{\∂z}\right)----\left(5\right)$

Continous way:

$\frac{{\∂\mathrm{\π}}^{\′}}{\∂}=\frac{{\mathrm{R\π}}_0}{C_v{\mathrm{\ρ}}_0{\mathrm{\θ}}_0}(\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\ρ}}_0{\mathrm{\θ}}_{0}u}{\∂x}+\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\ρ}}_0{\mathrm{\θ}}_{0}v}{\∂y}+\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\ρ}}_0{\mathrm{\θ}}_{0}w}{\∂z})----\left(6\right)$

Wherein, u, v, w: wind speed, f: Ge Shi parameter, Km: momental coefficient of eddy viscosity, Kn: the turbulent diffusivity of heat and moisture, θ u: the temperature grade of moisture (ice → water), rn: the mixing ratio of moisture such as rain, dew, ρ: density, rad: radiation energy (radiafion), g: acceleration of gravity, π ': Eoner fancfion (change part), θ r: interim temperature grade, P: pressure, index word 0 is a reference point, R: gas law constant, Cr: specific heat at constant volume.

As implied above, calculate fundamental equation with the analysis wind speed field of RAMS (Regional Atmospheric ModelingSystem) representation, can obtain from calculating and begin each regulation constantly (for example every 20 seconds), represent the wind direction vector data (wind speed field data) of the weather data of the weather data of each generous lattice point position and each lattice point position.

What＜diffusion-condition predicting calculated briefly introduces 〉

Introducing diffusion-condition predicting below calculates.Want to carry out diffusion-condition predicting and calculate, must carry out diffusion-condition predicting calculating to what obtain every each generous lattice point position of 20 seconds and the wind speed field data continuous substitution Colorado State University of each lattice point position and HYPACT (Hybrid Particle Conlenfrafion Transport Model) yard of Mission Research company exploitation with the RAMS sign indicating number.As the prediction and calculation example of diffusion-condition, adopted Lagrange (Lagrangian) particle diffusion model.

Among this Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and the rate of propagation of formula (7)～(9) the calculating particle shown in employing is following (u ', v ', w '), each particle is moved.

(mathematical expression 2)

The Lagrangian particle model adopts formula (12)～(14) to calculate the rate of propagation of particle.

$u^{\′}\left(t\right)=R_u{u}^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})+(1-R_u^2)r_u$

$v^{\′}\left(t\right)=R_v{v}^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})+(1-R_v^2)r_v----\left(7\right)$

$w^{\′}\left(t\right)=R_w{w}^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})+(1-R_w^2)r_w$

In the formula, Ru, Rv, Rw: the Lagrange turbulence autocorrelation function,

U ' (t), v ' (t), w ' (t): the DIFFUSION IN TURBULENCE speed composition of particle, t: time.

$R_u\left(\mathrm{\Δt}\right)=\frac{\stackrel{\‾}{u^{\′}\left(t\right)\·u^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})}}{{\mathrm{\σ}}_u^2}=\exp (-\frac{\mathrm{\Δt}}{T_{\mathrm{Lu}}})$

$R_v\left(\mathrm{\Δt}\right)=\frac{\stackrel{\‾}{v^{\′}\left(t\right)\·v^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})}}{{\mathrm{\σ}}_v^2}=\exp (-\frac{\mathrm{\Δt}}{T_{\mathrm{Lv}}})----\left(8\right)$

$R_w\left(\mathrm{\Δt}\right)=\frac{\stackrel{\‾}{w^{\′}\left(t\right)\·w^{\′}(t-\mathrm{\Δt})}}{{\mathrm{\σ}}_w^2}=\exp (-\frac{\mathrm{\Δt}}{T_{\mathrm{Lw}}})$

σ u, σ v, σ w in the formula: the turbulent velocity standard deviation,

TLu, TLv, TLw: Lagrangian time scale.

r _u＝σ _uη _u r _v＝σ _vη _v r _w＝σ _wη _w+w _d (9)

In the formula: η u, η v, η w: regular random sampling numbers (mean value is zero)

Wd: gravity settling speed.

Here introduce will by the RAMS sign indicating number obtain every substitution HYPACT (HybridParticle Concentration Transport Model) yard successively of the wind speed field data of each generous lattice point position in 20 seconds and each lattice point position, carry out the concrete example of the prediction and calculation of diffusion-condition.

In order to carry out this calculating, the material that will be discharged into from the discharge source the atmosphere is scaled most particles, is set at each computation period Δ t (Δ t=20 second herein) and produces N (being 20 herein) particle P from the position of discharging the source.

That is to say, in the moment calculating beginning, make it to produce 20 particle P, after calculating 20 seconds zero hours, produce 20 particles again, after calculating 40 seconds zero hours, produce 20 particles again, by that analogy, in each computation period Δ t (20 seconds), make it to produce 20 particles.And obtain the position (air coordinates) of each particle P by calculating every computation period Δ t (20 seconds).

And 20 particle P that produce the zero hour (0 second time) are calculated in expression with the following methods:

P00 ⁰¹、P00 ⁰²、P00 ⁰³、P00 ⁰⁴、P00 ⁰⁵、P00 ⁰⁶、P00 ⁰⁷、P00 ⁰⁸、P00 ⁰⁹、P00 ¹⁰、P00 ¹¹、P00 ¹²、P00 ¹³、P00 ¹⁴、P00 ¹⁵、P00 ¹⁶、P00 ¹⁷、P00 ¹⁸、P00 ¹⁹、P00 ²⁰。

Be expressed as from calculating 20 particle P that produce after 20 seconds zero hours:

P20 ⁰¹、P20 ⁰²、P20 ⁰³、P20 ⁰⁴、P20 ⁰⁵、P20 ⁰⁶、P20 ⁰⁷、P20 ⁰⁸、P20 ⁰⁹、P20 ¹⁰、P20 ¹¹、P20 ¹²、P20 ¹³、P20 ¹⁴、P20 ¹⁵、P20 ¹⁶、P20 ¹⁷、P20 ¹⁸、P20 ¹⁹、P20 ²⁰。

Be expressed as from calculating 20 particle P that take place after 40 seconds zero hours:

P40 ⁰¹、P40 ⁰²、P40 ⁰³、P40 ⁰⁴、P40 ⁰⁵、P40 ⁰⁶、P40 ⁰⁷、P40 ⁰⁸、P40 ⁰⁹、P40 ¹⁰、P40 ¹¹、P40 ¹²、P40 ¹³、P40 ¹⁴、P40 ¹⁵、P40 ¹⁶、P40 ¹⁷、P40 ¹⁸、P40 ¹⁹、P40 ²⁰。

That is to say that in the numeral shown in the subscript of label " P " back be from calculating the time of the zero hour, then is to be used for distinguishing 20 particles that produce in this moment in the numeral shown in the subscript of label " P " back.Also adopt the sign that uses the same method at other particle that produces constantly.

At first, calculating the zero hour from 20 particle: P00 of discharge source generation ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰

After calculating 20 seconds zero hours, 20 particle: P20 have newly been produced from discharge source S shown in Figure 19 ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰

Calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour this moment ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrival is spread simultaneously away from the position in the source of discharge.

The position of each particle P be adopt by the RAMS sign indicating number obtain every 20 seconds wind speed field data, calculate the rate of propagation (u ', v ', w ') of each the particle P in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, by mobile the obtaining that makes each particle.

After calculating 40 seconds zero hours, 20 particle: P40 have newly been produced by discharge source shown in Figure 20 ⁰¹, P40 ⁰², P40 ⁰³, P40 ⁰⁴, P40 ⁰⁵, P40 ⁰⁶, P40 ⁰⁷, P40 ⁰⁸, P40 ⁰⁹, P40 ¹⁰, P40 ¹¹, P40 ¹², P40 ¹³, P40 ¹⁴, P40 ¹⁵, P40 ¹⁶, P40 ¹⁷, P40 ¹⁸, P40 ¹⁹, P40 ²⁰

Calculate the particle that produce the zero hour: P00 this moment ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrival is further spread simultaneously apart from farther position, discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle: P20 that produce after 20 seconds zero hours ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰Arrival is spread away from the position of discharging the source time.

The position of each particle P be adopt by the RAMS sign indicating number obtain every 20 seconds wind speed field data, calculate the rate of propagation (u ' v ' w ') of each the particle P in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, by what each particle is moved obtain.

After calculating 60 seconds zero hours, by 20 particle: P60 of the new generation in discharge source shown in Figure 21 ⁰¹, P60 ⁰², P60 ⁰³, P60 ⁰⁴, P60 ⁰⁵, P60 ⁰⁶, P60 ⁰⁷, P60 ⁰⁸, P60 ⁰⁹, P60 ¹⁰, P60 ¹¹, P60 ¹², P60 ¹³, P60 ¹⁴, P60 ¹⁵, P60 ¹⁶, P60 ¹⁷, P60 ¹⁸, P60 ¹⁹, P60 ²⁰

At this moment, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrival is further spread simultaneously apart from farther position, discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle P20 that produce after 20 seconds zero hours ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰The position further diffusion simultaneously that arrival is farther apart from the discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle P40 that produce after 40 seconds zero hours ⁰¹, P40 ⁰², P40 ⁰³, P40 ⁰⁴, P40 ⁰⁵, P40 ⁰⁶, P40 ⁰⁷, P40 ⁰⁸, P40 ⁰⁹, P40 ¹⁰, P40 ¹¹, P40 ¹², P40 ¹³, P40 ¹⁴, P40 ¹⁵, P40 ¹⁶, P40 ¹⁷, P40 ¹⁸, P40 ¹⁹, P40 ²⁰Arrival is spread simultaneously away from the position in the source of discharge.

The position of each particle P be adopt by the RAMS sign indicating number obtain every 20 seconds wind speed field data, calculate the rate of propagation (u ', v ', w ') of each the particle P in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, by what each particle is moved obtain.

As above-mentioned, when a computation period Δ t (20 seconds) makes it to produce in succession 20 particles, obtain the particle position in each computation period Δ t (20 seconds) in succession, i.e. air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t) zi (t)).

And beginning to process during the stipulated time from calculating, as shown in Figure 22, in the unit space (unit volume in prediction area) of the source of discharge predetermined distance, existing under the situation of particle P, can calculate the material concentration in this unit space according to the quantity of this particle.

That is to say, be located at this discharge source S per second and discharge Q (m ³) material, because particle P produces 20 (as convert then to be one of p.s.) in 20 seconds, then each particle of each particle P has Q/1 (m ³) the discharge source strength.Therefore the quantity by the particle P that will exist in this unit space multiply by and discharges source strength Q/1 (m ³) can obtain the material concentration in the unit space.

If it is, then as follows with the general expression of above-mentioned concrete example.The materials such as gas that the discharge source is discharged are scaled most particles, and discharge N particle from discharging the source per second.In this case, the particle discharge rate in the calculating is N/ second.Reality is Q (m by the discharge rate of the material that discharge in the discharge source ³/ second) time, each particle becomes and has Q/N (m ³) the discharge source strength.

By carry out instability numerical evaluation equation of motion at each particle, that is to say the wind speed field data substitution particle movement equation formula HYPACT sign indicating number that to obtain by the RAMS sign indicating number, speed (u ', v ', w ') is counted in the expansion of adopting the Lagrangian particle diffusion model to calculate each particle P, by making moving of each particle, get final product the coordinate of each particle of instability ground decision.Just can determine the air coordinates of each each particle of computation period Δ t.And after obtaining by the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, the data that are recorded in each particle in the pen recorder only are the air coordinates of each particle (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)).

The equation of motion HYPACT sign indicating number of particle (material) is the advection that is used for showing particle, diffusion, gravity settling phenomenon.At this, the advection phenomenon of particle depends on the time mean speed of atmosphere, and diffusion phenomena depend on the turbulent velocity of atmosphere, and gravity settling depends on quality, the acceleration of gravity of particle, the factors such as viscosity coefficient (with reference to Figure 23) of air.

When the particle number in the airborne unit volume was n, then the gas concentration (material concentration) in this space was n * Q/N (gas m ³/ air m ³).Just the population n that exists in this unit space multiply by the discharge source strength Q/N that each particle has.

Summary of the invention

This ambient concentration (unit volume in material concentration) depend on ejected matter discharge rate through the time change.So be all in discharge rate and time under the situation of condition of variation, diffusion is calculated and must be implemented at each discharge condition.Therefore, under a lot of situation of the discharge condition of imagination, must spread calculating, consequently need extremely a large amount of computing times at every routine discharge rate.

That is to say, as shown in Figure 24, for example when from discharge source S (for example chimney), discharging gas, the gas concentration of place F at a disadvantage through the time change with the material of discharging source S discharge through the time change.

That is to say, shown in Figure 25 (a), when the discharge rate of material and time during co-variation, the material concentration of place F is shown in Figure 25 (b), together change in time, when shown in Figure 26 (a), under the situation that the discharge rate of material is fixed, the material concentration of place F is shown in Figure 26 (b), promptly safeguard certain concentration after rising to certain value, when shown in Figure 27 (a), material is under the situation of discharging moment, the material concentration of place F shown in Figure 27 (b), vanishing after the of short duration rising.

Like this, under the situation that the discharge rate of material together changes in time, be necessary to make the generation number of particle to combine, make it together to change in time with the discharge rate of material.And obtain like this with the time through together changing the shift position that it produces the particle of number, calculate the concentration of material from the shift position of this particle.Therefore, must spread calculating, thereby need quite huge result of calculation at the different various materials of the variation of discharge rate.

For example, when the facility of handling radiomaterial has taken place under the situation of radiating matter leakage accident, can discharge kind extremely many material (for example material about 100 kinds).And the discharge rate of every kind of material is different separately because of the time again.Therefore need the generation number of particle be combined with the discharge rate of material at every kind of material, together change in time, obtain the shift position of the particle that the number change takes place like this, calculate the concentration of material again from the shift position of this particle.Therefore in this case, must carry out calculating with 100 kinds of corresponding 100 kinds of diffusions of material.

The objective of the invention is in view of above prior art, a kind of diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate and the diffusion-condition predicting system of diffusate are provided.Even these method and system are being discharged multiple material, simultaneously under the situation that the discharge rate of every kind of material changes in time together, still prediction and calculation goes out the diffusion-condition of material at short notice.

The diffusion-condition predicting method that solves the diffusate of the present invention of above-mentioned problem is characterised in that: in order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from the discharge source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, is set at each computation period and produces the particle that preestablishes number from discharging the source position; The wind direction that changes along time course by the expression that will comprise the most places in the zone of discharging the source position simultaneously, the diffusion equation of the wind speed field data generation eight calculating particle disperse states of wind speed, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, according to this rate of propagation, obtain in the air coordinates of each particle of expression locus at place in each computation period, the elapsed time that the initial moment that produces of the above-mentioned particle of instrumentation rises---discharge the back elapsed time, after making the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle the elapsed time corresponding, record among the pen recorder; Discharge the variation ratio of the discharge rate that the time course in back elapsed time follows according to the material of discharging, preestablish and the corresponding discharge source strength of particle data along the time course of discharging the back elapsed time; Playback record is in the above-mentioned data recording equipment, elapsed time after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle, obtain the moment that each particle produces with reference to the elapsed time after the discharge of reading simultaneously, obtain the discharge source strength of each particle in this moment according to above-mentioned discharge source strength data, after making the discharge of discharging source strength and the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle the elapsed time corresponding, record again among the above-mentioned data recording equipment; The above-mentioned substance concentration in the regulation zone in the computation period of regulation is somebody's turn to do by cumulative calculation in the computation period of regulation, and the discharge source strength that is present in all particles in this regulation zone is obtained.

In addition, the feature of the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate of the present invention also is: in order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from a plurality of discharges source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, be set at from each and discharge the source position, in each computation period, produce the particle that preestablishes number separately; Simultaneously by comprising most places in the zone of discharging the source position, the wind direction that expression changes along time course, the diffusion equation of particle disperse state is calculated in the wind speed field data substitution of wind speed, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, according to this rate of propagation, obtain the air coordinates of the locus at each particle place of expression in each computation period, the elapsed time that the moment of the initial generation of the above-mentioned particle of instrumentation simultaneously rises---discharge the back elapsed time, make elapsed time after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle and discern the discharge source identifying information in discharge source corresponding, and record among the data set.

The variation ratio of the discharge rate that accompanies according to the time course of discharging the back elapsed time from the discharge source of the material of each discharge is set respectively and the corresponding discharge source strength of particle data along the time course of discharging the back elapsed time in advance; Playback record is in the above-mentioned pen recorder, the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle are discharged the discharge source identifying information of back elapsed time and each particle, simultaneously with reference to the elapsed time after the discharge of reading, obtain the generation moment of each particle, with reference to the discharge source identifying information of reading, according to the corresponding above-mentioned discharge source strength data in discharge source that produce this particle, obtain the discharge source strength that particle produces each particle constantly, make each particle elapsed time and to discharge source strength corresponding after the discharge of the air coordinates of each computation period and each particle, by above-mentioned data recording equipment record again; The concentration of the above-mentioned substance in the regulation zone in the computation period of regulation is obtained by the discharge source strength that is present in all particles in this regulation zone in the computation period of this regulation of cumulative calculation.

In addition, the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate of the present invention is characterised in that: both can obtain after the concentration of the material of the actual discharge in above-mentioned discharge source and set above-mentioned discharge source strength data by actual measurement, also can according to the material concentration of the observation station actual measurement around in above-mentioned discharge source through the time change and set above-mentioned discharge source strength data.

In addition, the disperse state prognoses system of diffusate of the present invention is characterized in that: this system comprises when diffusate is discharged in the atmosphere, the concentration of actual measurement diffusate, and the enterprise of the data of the discharge rate of transmission expression diffusate; The weather data that sends meteorological measuring sends facility; The supervisory department of government that resident's issue around above-mentioned enterprise and above-mentioned enterprise is taken refuge and announced; Carry out the diffusion-condition predicting computing of diffusate, the safety analysis center of the material concentration in the computational rules zone; Above-mentioned safety analysis center receives the data of the discharge rate of the expression diffusate that above-mentioned enterprise sends by the information transmission means, and receives above-mentioned weather data by the information transmission means and send the meteorological measuring that facility sends; Supervisory department of above-mentioned government receives the material concentration that above-mentioned safety analysis center sends by the information transmission means, and issues the announcement of taking refuge according to the concentration report of the material of receiving.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the calculation process of expression the 1st embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the key diagram of the particle disperse state of expression the 1st embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 3 is the key diagram of the particle disperse state of expression the 1st embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 4 is the key diagram of the particle disperse state of expression the 1st embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 5 be the expression material discharge rate through the time change the performance plot of example.

Fig. 6 be expression with the discharge rate of material through the time change the performance plot of corresponding discharge source strength example.

Fig. 7 is the key diagram that is illustrated in distribution of particles in the grid zone of regulation.

Fig. 8 is the key diagram in expression discharge source and grid zone.

Fig. 9 is when discharge rate fixedly the time, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 10 when discharge rate through the time when changing, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 11 is the key diagram in two discharge sources of expression and grid zone.

Figure 12 is when discharge rate fixedly the time, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 13 be when discharge rate through the time when changing, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 14 be the expression the 3rd embodiment key diagram.

Figure 15 is the key diagram of expression the 4th embodiment.

Figure 16 is the process flow diagram of the calculation process in expression the 4th embodiment.

Figure 17 is the process flow diagram of the calculation process in expression the 5th embodiment.

Figure 18 is system's pie graph of the system that relates to of expression the 6th embodiment.

Figure 19 is the key diagram of the disperse state of expression particle of the prior art.

Figure 20 is the key diagram of the disperse state of expression particle of the prior art.

Figure 21 is the key diagram of the disperse state of expression particle of the prior art.

Figure 22 is the key diagram of the distribution of particles in the grid zone of representing to stipulate.

Figure 23 is the key diagram of the function of expression particle diffusion model.

Figure 24 is the key diagram in expression discharge source and grid zone.

Figure 25 be when discharge rate through the time when changing, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 26 is when discharge rate fixedly the time, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Figure 27 is when discharge rate is moment, the performance plot of expression discharge rate and concentration relationship.

Embodiment

Below with reference to the accompanying drawings, introduce the specific embodiment of the present invention in detail.

＜the 1 embodiment (the discharge source is one) 〉

Below with reference to Fig. 1～Figure 10, introduce the diffusion-condition predicting method of the diffusate that the 1st embodiment of the present invention relates to.

In the 1st step (with reference to calculation flow chart Fig. 1) of the 1st embodiment, implement following processing.That is, no matter from discharge source S (with reference to expression particle diffusion-condition Fig. 2～Fig. 4) discharge rate of actual material of discharging is a fixed value, still change, at first with the discharge rate Q (m of material along the time course discharge rate ³/ second) be made as fixed value (=1.0), adopt used Lagrangian diffusion model, the track of counting particle.And then the information that has except that each particle---the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)), the elapsed time that the initial moment that produces of particle is risen---discharge back elapsed time Ti (t), in each computation period, record among the data recording equipment 1.

To specifying of the processing of the 1st step.As following.In this calculated, each computation period Δ (t) (Δ t=20 second) herein produced 20 particles, simultaneously in each computation period Δ t (20 seconds), and the position (air coordinates) of calculating particle P.

At first, calculating the zero hour, producing 20 particle P00 from discharging source S ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰

From calculating after 20 seconds of the zero hour, produce 20 particle P20 from discharge source S shown in Figure 2 is new ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰

At this moment, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrived away from the position of discharging source S, simultaneously in diffusion.

Each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰The position, be to adopt per 20 seconds wind speed field data of obtaining by the RAMS sign indicating number, calculate each the particle P00 in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Rate of propagation (u ', v ', w '), by what each particle is moved obtain.

Also have, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰,, passed through for 20 seconds from calculating the zero hour (the initial moment that produces of particle).Therefore make respectively and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 corresponding to each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=20), yi (t=20), zi (t=20)) afterwards, record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 2) among the pen recorder 1.

After calculating kind 40 seconds zero hours, from 20 particle P40 of the new generation of discharge source S shown in Figure 3 ⁰¹, P40 ⁰², P40 ⁰³, P40 ⁰⁴, P40 ⁰⁵, P40 ⁰⁶, P40 ⁰⁷, P40 ⁰⁸, P40 ⁰⁹, P40 ¹⁰, P40 ¹¹, P40 ¹², P40 ¹³, P40 ¹⁴, P40 ¹⁵, P40 ¹⁶, P40 ¹⁷, P40 ¹⁸, P40 ¹⁹, P40 ²⁰

Calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour this moment ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrival is further spread simultaneously apart from farther position, discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle P20 that produce after 20 seconds of the zero hour ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰Arrival is away from the position in the source of discharge, simultaneously in diffusion.

Each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰, P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰The position, be to adopt the wind speed field data of obtaining by the RAMS sign indicating number every 20 seconds, calculate each the particle P00 in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰, P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Rate of propagation (u ', v ', w '), by what each particle is moved obtain.

Also have, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰,, spent for 40 seconds from calculating moment beginning (the initial moment that produces of particle).Therefore make to discharge and corresponded respectively to each particle P00 in back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 3) among the data recording equipment 1 afterwards.

In addition, from calculating the particle P20 that produces after 20 seconds zero hours ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Passed through for 20 seconds from calculating the zero hour (the initial moment that produces of particle).Therefore make to discharge under the elapsed time of back and corresponded respectively to each particle P20 in Ti (t)=20 second ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) afterwards, record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 3) among the pen recorder 1.

After calculating 60 seconds of the zero hour, by 20 particle P60 of the new generation of discharge source S shown in Figure 4 ⁰¹, P60 ⁰², P60 ⁰³, P60 ⁰⁴, P60 ⁰⁵, P60 ⁰⁶, P60 ⁰⁷, P60 ⁰⁸, P60 ⁰⁹, P60 ¹⁰, P60 ¹¹, P60 ¹², P60 ¹³, P60 ¹⁴, P60 ¹⁵, P60 ¹⁶, P60 ¹⁷, P60 ¹⁸, P60 ¹⁹, P60 ²⁰

At this moment, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹, P00 ⁰², P00 ⁰³, P00 ⁰⁴, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ⁰⁶, P00 ⁰⁷, P00 ⁰⁸, P00 ⁰⁹, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ¹¹, P00 ¹², P00 ¹³, P00 ¹⁴, P00 ¹⁵, P00 ¹⁶, P00 ¹⁷, P00 ¹⁸, P00 ¹⁹, P00 ²⁰Arrival is further spread simultaneously apart from farther position, discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle P20 that produce after 20 seconds zero hours ⁰¹, P20 ⁰², P20 ⁰³, P20 ⁰⁴, P20 ⁰⁵, P20 ⁰⁶, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ⁰⁸, P20 ⁰⁹, P20 ¹⁰, P20 ¹¹, P20 ¹², P20 ¹³, P20 ¹⁴, P20 ¹⁵, P20 ¹⁶, P20 ¹⁷, P20 ¹⁸, P20 ¹⁹, P20 ²⁰The position further diffusion simultaneously that arrival is farther apart from the discharge source.

In addition, from calculating 20 particle P40 that produce after 40 seconds zero hours ⁰¹, P40 ⁰², P40 ⁰³, P40 ⁰⁴, P40 ⁰⁵, P40 ⁰⁶, P40 ⁰⁷, P40 ⁰⁸, P40 ⁰⁹, P40 ¹⁰, P40 ¹¹, P40 ¹², P40 ¹³, P40 ¹⁴, P40 ¹⁵, P40 ¹⁶, P40 ¹⁷, P40 ¹⁸, P40 ¹⁹, P40 ²⁰Arrival is away from the position in the source of discharge, simultaneously in diffusion.

Each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰, P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰, P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰The position, be to adopt the wind speed field data of obtaining by the RAMS sign indicating number every 20 seconds, calculate each the particle P00 in the Lagrangian particle diffusion model ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰, P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰, P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Rate of propagation (u ', v ', w ' '), by what each particle is moved obtain.

Also have, calculate the particle P00 that produce the zero hour ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰, from calculating the zero hour (the initial moment that produces of particle), spent for 60 seconds, therefore make discharge after elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second respectively with each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) corresponding after, record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 4) among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, from calculating the particle P20 that produces after 20 seconds zero hours ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰,, spent for 40 seconds from calculating the zero hour (making the initial moment that produces of particle).Therefore, make discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second respectively with each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) corresponding after, record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 4) among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, from calculating the particle P40 that produces after 40 seconds zero hours ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰, from calculating the zero hour (making the initial moment that produces of particle), through 20 seconds, therefore, make discharge after elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second respectively with each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) corresponding after, record (with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 4) among the pen recorder 1.

As mentioned above, make it when each computation period Δ t (20 seconds) produces 20 particles in succession, to obtain the particle position in each computation period Δ t (20 seconds) in succession, i.e. air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)).In addition, measure elapsed time Ti (t) after the discharge in each computation period Δ t in advance, make the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle after the elapsed time corresponding, record successively among the data recording equipment 1.

Following mask body is introduced the processing of the 2nd step (with reference to Fig. 1).In the 1st above-mentioned step with the discharge rate Q (m of material ³/ second) be made as fixed value (=0.1), count.Yet the discharge rate of the material of discharging from the discharge source S of reality as shown in Figure 5, and great majority change along with the process of discharging back elapsed time Ti (t).Therefore under the time dependent situation of this type of discharge rate, the discharge rate of setting and this material shown in Figure 5 is corresponding, as shown in Figure 6, represents the data with the corresponding discharge intensity of particle of the time course of elapsed time Ti (t) after discharge.

Discharge source strength data among Fig. 6 when elapsed time Ti (t) is 0 second, 20 seconds, 60 seconds after for example discharging, is discharged source strength and are respectively 0.3,0.9,0.6.

Then, at playback record in data recording equipment 1, after the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and the discharge of each particle elapsed time Ti (t) time, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t) with reference to each particle, obtain the generation moment of this particle, according to discharge source strength data shown in Figure 6, obtain the discharge source strength of each particle in this moment.And then, make after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle and each particle elapsed time Ti (t) and discharge source strength corresponding at each computation period, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

Particularly, the data when being 20 seconds (the 1st computation period), each particle P00 as elapsed time Ti (t) after discharging ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=20), yi (t=20), zi (t=20)) with discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second corresponding, by data recording equipment 1 record (with reference to Fig. 2).

Therefore, read this each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=20), yi (t=20), zi (t=20)) and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20, discharge back elapsed time Ti=20 second by deducting second from present moment t=20, obtain each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second.And, obtain particle P00 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second the time.

And make each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=20), yi (t=20), zi (t=20)) and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second, and each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 corresponding after, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, the data when being 40 seconds (the 2nd computation period) as elapsed time Ti (t) after discharging,

Make each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) with discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second corresponding, and

Each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) with discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second corresponding after, by data recording equipment 1 record (with reference to Fig. 3).

Therefore, read each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second by deducting second from present moment t=40, obtain each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second.And, obtain particle P00 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second the time.

Identical therewith, read each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second by deducting second from present moment t=40, obtain each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second.And, obtain particle P20 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.5 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second the time.

And make each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second and each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 corresponding, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, make each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=40), yi (t=40), zi (t=40)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second and each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.5 corresponding, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, the data when being 60 seconds (the 3rd computation period) as elapsed time Ti (t) after discharging,

Make each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second,

Each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second, and

Each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) with discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second corresponding after, by data recording equipment 1 record (with reference to Fig. 4).

Therefore, read each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second by deducting second from present moment t=60, obtain each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second.And, obtain particle P00 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=0 second the time.

Identical therewith, read each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second by deducting second from present moment t=60, obtain each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second.And, obtain particle P20 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.5 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second the time.

Identical therewith, read each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharged back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second, discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second by deducting second from present moment t=60, obtain each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Produced after the discharge constantly elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second.And, obtain particle P40 according to discharge intensity data shown in Figure 6 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.9 after the discharge during generation elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second the time.

And make each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=60 second, and each particle P00 ⁰¹～P00 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.3 corresponding after, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, make each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=40 second, and each particle P20 ⁰¹～P20 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.5 corresponding after, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In addition, make each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Each air coordinates (xi (t=60), yi (t=60), zi (t=60)) and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=20 second, and each particle P40 ⁰¹～P40 ²⁰Discharge source strength 0.9 corresponding after, record again among the data recording equipment 1.

In following computation period, still carry out same processing and calculate, make each air coordinates of each particle corresponding, record among the data recording equipment again with the discharge source strength of discharging back elapsed time Ti (t) and each particle.

Following mask body is introduced the processing of the 3rd step (contrast Fig. 1).For example after discharge elapsed time Ti (t)=120 second the time, wanting to calculate is having grid zone (unit space of component unit volume) I, the J of the regulation of predetermined distance, the material concentration of K from discharge source S shown in Figure 7, from data recording equipment 1, read and discharge back elapsed time Ti (t)=120 second, be present in the particle in this grid zone.After reading,,, can calculate the material concentration in this unit space by the discharge source strength that these particles of cumulative calculation have separately if exist under the situation of particle as shown in Figure 7.

That is to say, exist at grid region memory shown in Figure 7

Intensity is 4 particles of 0.3, P00 ⁰¹, P00 ⁰⁵, P00 ¹⁰, P00 ²⁰

Intensity is 3 particle P20 of 0.5 ⁰¹, P20 ⁰⁷, P20 ¹⁷

Intensity is two particle P40 of 0.9 ⁰⁸, P40 ¹⁰And

1 particle P60 of 0.6 of intensity ¹⁷

Therefore, by the discharge source strength of these particles of cumulative calculation as follows, the material concentration that can calculate in this unit space is 5.1.

(0.3×4)+(0.5×3)+(0.9×2)+(0.6×1)＝5.1

If it is above-mentioned the 1st embodiment is described, then as follows with common mode (mathematical way).Among the 1st embodiment, as shown in Figure 8, when from discharge source S ejected matter (gas etc.), can change according to the time, prediction is in the grid area I in leeward, discharge source, the material concentration (gas concentration) among J, the K.And as shown in Fig. 9 (a), as the discharge rate Q of material fixedly the time, natural energy is predicted grid area I, J, K shown in Fig. 9 (b) concentration through the time change, even shown in Figure 10 (a), the discharge rate of material is time dependent discharge rate Q (t), also can be shown in Figure 10 (b), the concentration that prediction and calculation goes out the grid zone through the time change.

The 1st implement among, no matter be fixed value from the discharge rate of the material of discharging the actual discharge of source S, or discharge rate changes along time course, at first the discharge rate Q (m of material ³/ second) is set at fixed value (=1.0), adopt existing Lagrangian particle diffusion model, material is scaled particle, makes from discharging source S per second kind and produce N particle, obtain the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)) of expression particle position behind the track counting with each particle.And then the information that has except that each particle---the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)), the elapsed time that the initial moment that produces of particle is risen---discharge back elapsed time Ti (t) and in each computation period, record among the data recording equipment.So can utilize existing Lagrangian particle diffusion model, calculate with measure with through the time the corresponding CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION of all discharge rate q (t) that changes through the time change.

For this reason, must set with through the time material that changes discharge rate q (t) proportional, with the data of discharging source strength along the corresponding expression of the particle of the effluxion of discharging back elapsed time Ti (t).And from data storage device, read the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)) of each particle position of expression and discharge elapsed time Ti (t) afterwards at (t) sometime.

Fix under the situation of (Q=1.0) the discharge source strength Q/N (m of each particle when discharge rate ³)=1/N, but discharge rate q (t) be through the time situation about changing under, the discharge source strength of each particle then becomes q (t-Ti)/N (m ³).

The information that has except each particle---the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)), will discharge discharge source strength qi (t-Ti)/N (m of back elapsed time Ti (t) and each particle once more ³) record in the data recording equipment again.

Utilized the Lagrangian particle model, discharge the back elapsed time and corresponding to through the time discharge rate q (t) that changes discharge source strength qi (t-Ti)/N (m ³) present embodiment among since the space in unit volume (=1m ³Air) the discharge source strength difference that each particle has, thereby discharge source strength qi (t-Ti)/N (m of each particle of cumulative calculation ³) ∑ qi (t-Ti)/N (m ³) promptly become the gas flow that exists in this unit volume.Therefore, the gas concentration in this space is ∑ qi (t-Ti)/N (m ³)/N (m ³)/N (gas m ³/ air m ³).

＜the 2 embodiment (the discharge source is a plural number) 〉

A plurality of when existing (J) discharge source, from each discharge source with through the time when changing different discharge rate (qi (t)) ejected matters, on the basis of the particle information of the Lagrangian particle diffusion model that the 1st embodiment adopts (position, discharge the back elapsed time), by making each particle have discharge source identifying information (Si), can bring into play and the 1st embodiment identical functions.

For example shown in Figure 11, under the situation of two discharges source S1, S2, make from the particle of discharging source S1 discharge to have discharge source identifying information S1, make from the particle of discharging source S2 discharge to have discharge source identifying information S2.And use the Lagrangian particle diffusion model, and material is scaled particle, make it to discharge source S1, S2 and discharge N particle respectively p.s. from two, count the track of each particle, obtain the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)) of expression particle position.And then the information that has except that each particle---the air coordinates (xi (t), yi (t), zi (t)), make it to have from the particle elapsed time in the initial moment that produces---discharge back elapsed time Ti (t) and discharge source identifying information S1 or S2.

Shown in Figure 12 (a), from discharging the discharge rate Q that source S1, S2 discharge, be set at fixed value (=1) respectively, adopt existing Lagrangian particle diffusion model, obtain in the grid area I shown in Figure 12 (b), J, K material concentration through the time note after changing.

Then, if establish from the discharge rate of discharging the material that source S1 discharges shown in the dotted line Figure 13 (a), for through the time q1 (t) that changes, then for discharging the particle that source S1 discharges from this, with the method identical, the discharge source strength of particle is set at q1 (t) with the 1st embodiment.And, set the discharge source strength at each particle with reference to this particle generation discharge source strength q1 (t) constantly.Its result, in the grid area I of being asked, J, K, have the discharge source strength of the particle of discharge source identifying information S1 by cumulative calculation, can obtain from discharge material concentration (the grid area I of being asked, the material concentration within J, the K) that source S1 discharges through the time change.

Equally, be q2 (t) if establish from the discharge rate of discharging the material that source S2 discharges, then, use the method identical with the 1st embodiment for discharging the particle that source S2 discharges from this, the discharge source strength of particle is set at q2 (t).And, produce discharge source strength q2 (t) constantly with reference to this particle at each particle, set and discharge source strength.Its result, within the grid area I of being asked, J, K, have the discharge source strength of the particle of discharge source identifying information S2 by cumulative calculation, can obtain from discharge material concentration (the grid area I of being asked, the material concentration within J, the K) that source S2 discharges through the time change.

As mentioned above, can by will from discharge material concentration that source S1 discharges through the time change and from discharge material concentration that S2 discharges through the time change addition, obtain the grid area I of being asked, the material concentration within J, the K.

＜the 3 embodiment 〉

After the 3rd embodiment has been the speciogenesis toxic gas leakage accident, the measured result according to the discharge rate of this toxic gas calculates method current and CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION in the future at short notice.

The diffusion of environmental assessment and so on is calculated, because of not needing to see result of calculation at once, so afterwards at the discharge rate q (t) of the gas of determining to change along effluxion, the prediction and calculation of the diffusion-condition of the time of cost a few days to several months enforcement gas.But toxic gas leakage accident and so on is taking place in emergency circumstances, owing to be necessary to take the measure of act of rescue surrounding resident, thereby must in the short as far as possible time, draw diffusion result of calculation.

In this case,, shown in Figure 14 (a) and (b), (c), use the Lagrangian particle diffusion model identical, implemented the diffusion of fixed discharge rate (Q=1) in 24 hours continuously and calculate with the 1st embodiment according to each three dimensions wind speed profile constantly.

After the toxic gas leakage accident takes place, use the gas concentration monitoring device of the chimney outlet that is arranged on the discharge source etc., measure actual measurement gas emissions q (t).By set the discharge source strength q (t) of each by this actual measurement gas emissions q (t), use the method identical with the 1st embodiment, can corrected Calculation with the corresponding concentration of this toxic gas discharge capacity through the time variation ((e)) with reference to Figure 14 (d).That is to say,, produce discharge source strength q (t) constantly, set and discharge source strength (Figure 14 (d) with reference to this particle at each particle.And among the grid area I of being asked, J, K, by this region memory of cumulative calculation the discharge source strength of particle, can obtain from discharge material concentration (the grid area I of being asked, the material concentration within J, the K) that source S discharges through the time change.

And toxic gas discharge capacity in the future or be set at and current actual measurement discharge rate q (t) equivalence, or calculate according to the prediction type of setting separately.

As calculating method current and that three dimensions wind speed is in the future analyzed, can utilize the weather data (GPV:Grid PointValue) of the grids on a large scale (20km) that weather bureau etc. regularly sends, calculate with weather prognosis model (RAMS, MM5 etc.) on a large scale grid (several kilometers～tens of rice) among a small circle weather data (wind direction, wind speed, temperature) through the time change.

＜the 4 embodiment 〉

After the 4th embodiment has been the speciogenesis toxic gas leakage accident, calculate the method for the current discharge capacity of toxic gas at short notice according to the concentration measured result of revealing the place periphery.

When the toxic gas leakage accident has taken place, in most cases, be difficult to measure from the discharge source shown in Figure 15 (a)---the discharge rate q (t) that toxic gas source of leakage S discharges.In such cases, the concentration (ck (t) observation) that can survey out according to the observation station (xk) of location of leak periphery through the time change, adopt the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the 1st embodiment, extrapolate discharge rate q (t) in the short time.

Promptly adopt the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the 1st embodiment before accident takes place, with fixing discharge rate (Q=1) (with reference to Figure 15 (b)), (Ck (t) calculates (with reference to Figure 15 (c)) to precompute the concentration of certain peripheral observation station (xk).

This concentration (Ck (t) calculating) is the particle (n) that exists in the three dimensions volume (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) at center according to being with observation station (xk), calculates with following formula (10).

Ck (t) calculating=n * ∑ Q (t-Ti)/N/ (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) ... (10)

In such cases, discharge rate Q (t-Ti) is fixed value (=1).

Then one after measured observation station (xk) concentration through the time change (Ck (t) observation), utilize formula (10) can obtain formula (11)

(Ck (t) observation=n0 * ∑ q0 (t-0)/N/ (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z)

+n1×∑q1(t-ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n2×∑q2(t-2·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n3×∑q3(t-3·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n4×∑q4(t-4·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+……

+n1×∑q1(t-t)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+C0(t) ......(11)

After n0 in the formula, n1, n2, n3 and n1 are respectively the discharging beginning, before 0 second, before the Δ t before second, (Δ t * 2) second, before (Δ t * 3) second and the particle that gave off before second of t, be that to be present in observation station (xk) be the interior total number of particles of three dimensions volume (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) at center.

In addition, the C0 in the formula (t) is referred to as background concentration, is that discharge in the place beyond the discharge source that constitutes calculating object, and the concentration with the irrelevant existence in observation place is fixed value or time to time change.

Q0 in the formula, q1, q2, q3 and q1 are respectively before t during second before 0 second, Δ T before second, (Δ T * 2) second, before (Δ T * 3) second and the emission index before t (=Δ t * 1) second.

Because Ck (t) observation is 24 hours METHOD FOR CONTINUOUS DETERMINATION, thus can measure after leak zero hour to 0 second, Δ T after second, (Δ T * 2) second back, (Δ T * 3) second back and t (Δ T * 1) second the back (1+1) individual more than.

In addition, under the situation of k observation station (xk), can obtain the individual observation data of k * (1+1).

Because the unknown number in the formula (11) is that (1+1) of q0, q1, q2, q3 and q1 is individual, known number Ck (t) observation have k * (1+1) individual more than, thereby unknown number is less than known number.Adopt least square method that the least squares error corresponding with observation concentration C k (t) observation is made as minimum in this case, can determine unknown number q0, q1, q2, q3 and q1.Figure 16 promptly is the process flow diagram of the computing mode of expression the 4th embodiment.

＜the 5 embodiment 〉

The 5th embodiment is a kind of after the accident that toxic gas leaks and so on takes place, according to the concentration measured result of location of leak periphery, calculate at short notice toxic gas current discharge rate, calculate the method for its CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION.

According to adopting the 4th embodiment, from the concentration (Ck (t) observation) of observation station (xk) actual measurement of location of leak periphery through the time variation, adopt the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the 1st embodiment, can extrapolate discharge rate q (t) at short notice.

As shown in Figure 17, before leakage accident takes place, promptly adopt the Lagrangian particle diffusion model of the 1st embodiment, precompute the concentration (Ck (t) calculating) of certain peripheral observation station (xk) with fixed discharge rate (Q=1).

This concentration (Ck (t) calculating) is be (n is individual) particle in the three dimensions volume (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) at center according to being present in observation station (xk), calculates with formula (12).

Ck (t) calculating=n * ∑ Q (t-Ti)/N/ (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) ... (12)

Emission index Q (t-Ti) is fixed value (=1) in this case.

Then one after measured observation station (xk) concentration through the time change (Ck (t) observation), can utilize formula (12) to obtain formula (13).

(Ck (t) observation=n0 * ∑ q0 (t-0)/N/ (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z)

+n1×∑q1(t-ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n2×∑q2(t-2·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n3×∑q3(t-3·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+n4×∑q4(t-4·ΔT)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+…… (13)

+n1×∑q1(t-t)/N/(Δx×Δy×Δz)

+C0(t)

Before n0 in the formula, n1, n2, n3 and n1 are respectively discharging beginning before back 0 second, Δ T before second, (Δ T * 2) second, before (Δ T * 3) second and the particle that gave off before second of t, be that to be present in the observation station be total number of particles in the three dimensions (Δ x * Δ y * Δ z) at center.

In addition, the C0 in the formula (t) is referred to as background concentration, is that discharge in the place beyond the discharge source that constitutes calculating object, and the concentration with the irrelevant existence in observation place is fixed value or time to time change.

Q0 in the formula, q1, q2, q3 and q1 were respectively from t during second, before 0 second, before Δ T before second, (Δ T * 2) second, before (Δ T * 3) second and the emission index before t (=Δ T * 1) second.

Because Ck (t) observation is 24 hours METHOD FOR CONTINUOUS DETERMINATION, thus can determine after leak zero hour to 0 second, Δ T after second, (Δ T * 2) second back, (Δ T * 3) second back and t (=Δ T * 1) second the back (1+1) individual more than.

In addition, under the situation of k observation station (xk), can obtain the individual observation data of k * (1+1).

Because the unknown number in the formula (13) is that (1+1) of q0, q1, q2, q3 and q1 is individual, and known number Ck (t) be observed k * (1+1) individual more than, so unknown number is less than known number.In this case, adopt least square method that the least squares error corresponding with observation concentration C k (t) observation is made as minimum, can determine q0, q1, q2, q3 and the q1 of unknown number.

If adopt this reckoning value q0, q1, q2, q3 and q1, with the method for the 1st embodiment carry out concentration through the time corrected Calculation that changes, can calculate the CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION in each elapsed time separately.

＜the 6 embodiment 〉

The 6th embodiment is after the toxic gas leakage accident takes place, and according to the discharge capacity measured result, provides system current and CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION result of calculation in the future with the Internet at short notice.

Owing to toxic gas leakage and so on accident is taking place in emergency circumstances, must promptly take peripheral resident's the measure of taking refuge, thereby require in the short as far as possible time, to draw diffusion result of calculation.But because when this type of leakage accident do not notify and take place, so in supervisory department of government---each factory of fire-fighting, police and autonomous body and enterprise must be with 24 hours these computer systems of system management operation.

Because therefore manpower and financial resources and superb computer operation technology that this kind management operation need cost a lot of money except that the mechanism of standing extensive crisis management system, are difficult to management operation.

As the remedial measure of this problem, proposed to utilize the scheme of the information providing system of nearest the Internet.

The 6th implement among, as shown in Figure 18, safety analysis center 12 is set in other place different with each factory 11 of functional department 10 such as fire-fighting, police and the autonomous body of supervisory department of government and enterprise.Safety analysis center 12 receives from the weather data of the meteorological Room 13 grades by information transmission means such as the Internets and sends the meteorological measuring that facility sends, calculate by use large scale computer calculation machine when usual, according to each three dimensions wind speed profile constantly, with the Lagrangian particle diffusion model identical, implemented the diffusion of fixed discharge rate (Q=1) in 24 hours continuously and calculate with the 1st embodiment.

After the toxic gas leakage accident takes place, if can recognize the toxic gas discharge rate q (t) of actual measurement from the gas concentration measuring device of the chimney outlet that is arranged on enterprise 11 etc., then this toxic gas discharge capacity q (t) is transferred to safety analysis center 12 by information transmission means such as the Internets.Like this can be 12 adopt the method identical with the 1st embodiment at the safety analysis center, corrected Calculation and the corresponding concentration of this toxic gas emission index through the time change.

Safety analysis center 12 sends to supervisory departments of government 10 such as fire-fighting, police and autonomous body with the concentration result of calculation that calculates.Functional department 10 sends the announcement of taking refuge according to its concentration to enterprise 11 and the periphery resident 14 of factory.

And toxic gas discharge capacity in the future or be set at and current actual measurement discharge rate q (t) equivalence, or calculate according to the pretest of setting separately.Under the situation that has many enterprises to exist, carry out the calculating of second embodiment at the safety analysis center, come prediction concentrations through the time change.

As calculating method current and three dimensions wind speed profile in the future, can utilize the meteorological measuring (GPV:GridPoint Value) of the grids on a large scale (20km) that place such as the meteorological Room 13 regularly sends, calculate with weather prognosis model (RAMS, MM5 etc.) on a large scale grid (several kilometers～tens of rice) among a small circle weather data (wind direction, wind speed, temperature) through the time change.

(invention effect)

As above embodiment and shown in specifying, the disperse state Forecasting Methodology of the diffusate that the present invention relates to, in order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from the discharge source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, sets out in each computation period and produce the particle that preestablishes number from discharging the source position; Simultaneously by comprising a plurality of places in the zone of discharging the source position, the wind direction that expression changes along time course, the diffusion equation of particle disperse state is calculated in the wind speed field data substitution of wind speed, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, and in each computation period, obtain the air coordinates of locus at each particle place of expression according to this rate of propagation, calculate simultaneously and measure from the above-mentioned particle elapsed time in the initial moment that produces---discharge the back elapsed time, the air coordinates that makes each particle in each computation period is corresponding with the elapsed time after the discharge of each particle, records among the data recording equipment then; According to the variation ratio of the discharge rate of following time course in elapsed time after the discharge of ejected matter, preestablish and discharge the corresponding discharge source strength of the particle along the time course data in back elapsed time; Playback record is in the above-mentioned data recording equipment, elapsed time after the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and the discharge of each particle, obtain the moment that each particle produces with reference to the elapsed time after the discharge of reading simultaneously, according to above-mentioned discharge source strength data, obtain the discharge source strength of each particle in this moment, make the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle of discharging each computation period of source strength and each particle after the elapsed time corresponding afterwards by above-mentioned data recording equipment record again; The above-mentioned substance concentration in the regulation zone in the regulation computation period then is set at by the discharge source strength of all particles that are present in this regulation zone in this regulation computation period of cumulative calculation and obtains.

Therefore, even the amount difference of discharging from the discharge source also can calculate the material concentration in the specific region at short notice.

In addition, the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate of the present invention, in order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from a plurality of discharges source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, set out each computation period and produce the particle that preestablishes number respectively from discharging the source position; Most places in the zone of the position by will comprising the discharge source simultaneously, the wind direction that expression changes along time course, the wind speed field data of wind speed, the diffusion equation of particle disperse state is calculated in substitution, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, according to this rate of propagation, obtain the air coordinates of the locus at each particle place of expression in each computation period, calculate simultaneously and measure the elapsed time that the initial moment that produces of above-mentioned particle rises---discharge the back elapsed time, make elapsed time after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle and discern the discharge source identifying information in discharge source corresponding after, record among the data recording equipment; The variation ratio of the discharge rate of following according to the time course in elapsed time after the discharge of the material of discharging from the discharge source preestablishes each discharge source and the corresponding discharge source strength of particle data along the time course of discharging the back elapsed time respectively; Playback record is in the above-mentioned pen recorder, the discharge source identifying information of elapsed time and each particle after the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and the discharge of each particle, simultaneously with reference to the discharge source identifying information of reading, according to the pairing above-mentioned discharge source strength data in discharge source that produce with this particle, obtain the discharge source strength that particle produces each particle constantly, make after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and each particle the elapsed time and discharge source strength corresponding, by above-mentioned data recording equipment record again; The above-mentioned substance concentration in the regulation zone in the computation period of regulation is set at by the discharge source strength of all particles that are present in this regulation zone in the computation period of this regulation of cumulative calculation to be obtained.

Therefore, even the amount difference of discharging from the discharge source also can calculate the material concentration in the specific region at short notice.In addition, even from a plurality of discharges source ejected matter, also can accurately calculate the concentration of material.

In addition, among the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate of the present invention, both can obtain after the concentration of the material of the actual discharge in above-mentioned discharge source and set above-mentioned discharge source strength data by actual measurement, also can according to the material concentration of the observation station actual measurement around in above-mentioned discharge source through the time change and set above-mentioned discharge source strength data.

Therefore, even fail to obtain the concentration data of the material of discharging in the discharge source in advance, also can carry out concentration and calculate with measured data.

In addition, the diffusion-condition predicting system of diffusate of the present invention comprises: when diffusate is discharged in the atmosphere, and the concentration of actual measurement diffusate, the enterprise of the discharge rate data of transmission expression diffusate; The weather data that sends meteorological measuring sends facility; Issue the supervisory department of government of taking refuge and announcing to above-mentioned enterprise and peripheral resident; Carry out the diffusion-condition predicting computing of diffusate, the safety analysis center of the material concentration in the computational rules zone.Be set at above-mentioned safety analysis center and receive the data of the expression diffusate discharge rate that above-mentioned enterprise sends, receive above-mentioned weather data and send the meteorological measuring that facility sends by the information transmission means.Supervisory department of above-mentioned government receives the material concentration that above-mentioned safety analysis center sends by the information transmission means.Supervisory department of above-mentioned government issues the announcement of taking refuge according to the concentration report that receives.

Therefore, supervisory department of government can send the announcement of taking refuge rapidly according to the information that the safety analysis center calculation goes out, the peripheral resident's that promptly takes to take refuge measure.

Claims (5)

1. the diffusion-condition predicting method of a diffusate is characterized in that:

In order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from the discharge source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, when setting when the source position produces the particle of predetermined number from discharging in each computation period;

Simultaneously by comprising the time dependent wind direction in the most places in the zone of discharging the source position, the diffusion equation of particle diffusion-condition is calculated in the wind speed field data substitution of wind speed, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, according to this rate of propagation, obtain the air coordinates of the locus at each particle place of expression in each computation period, elapsed time after instrumentation was promptly discharged from the elapsed time in the moment of the above-mentioned particle of initial generation simultaneously, after making the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle the elapsed time corresponding, and record among the data recording equipment;

With the discharge rate of ejected matter with the ratio that is varied to of discharging the back elapsed time, preestablish with discharge that the back elapsed time changes with the corresponding discharge source strength of particle data;

Playback record is in the above-mentioned data recording equipment, elapsed time after the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and the discharge of each particle, simultaneously with reference to the elapsed time after the discharge of reading, obtain the generation moment of each particle, according to above-mentioned discharge source strength data, obtain the discharge intensity of each particle in this moment, make the discharge of the air coordinates of discharging source strength and each particle of each computation period and each particle after the elapsed time corresponding, then by above-mentioned data recording equipment record again;

The concentration of the above-mentioned substance in the regulation zone in the computation period of regulation is obtained by the discharge source strength of all particles that are present in this regulation zone in this regulation computation period of cumulative calculation.

2. the diffusion-condition predicting method of a diffusate, it is characterized in that: in order to predict the diffusion-condition of material in atmosphere that is discharged into from a plurality of discharges source the atmosphere, above-mentioned substance is scaled most particles, when in each computation period, producing the particle of predetermined number separately, sets from each discharge source position;

Simultaneously by comprising most places in the zone of discharging the source position, represent time dependent wind direction, the diffusion equation of particle disperse state is calculated in the wind speed field data substitution of wind speed, obtain the rate of propagation of each particle, according to this rate of propagation, obtain the air coordinates of the locus at this particle place of expression in each computation period, the elapsed time that the moment of the initial generation of the above-mentioned particle of instrumentation simultaneously rises is promptly discharged the back elapsed time, make elapsed time after the discharge of the air coordinates of each particle in each computation period and each particle and discern the discharge source identifying information in discharge source corresponding, and record among the data recording equipment;

With the discharge rate of the material of discharging from each discharge source with the ratio that is varied to of discharging the back elapsed time, set respectively in advance with the discharge source strength data of discharging the particle that the back elapsed time changes;

Playback record is in the above-mentioned data recording equipment, the discharge source identifying information of elapsed time and each particle after the air coordinates of each particle of each computation period and the discharge of each particle, simultaneously with reference to the elapsed time after the discharge of reading, obtaining each particle produces constantly, with reference to the discharge source identifying information of reading, according to the corresponding above-mentioned discharge source strength data in discharge source that produce this particle, obtain the discharge source strength of each particle in the moment that produces this particle, after making the discharge of the air coordinates of discharging source strength and each particle of each computation period and each particle the elapsed time corresponding, by above-mentioned data recording equipment record again;

The concentration of the above-mentioned substance in the regulation zone in the computation period of regulation is obtained by the discharge source strength of all particles that are present in this regulation zone in the computation period of this regulation of cumulative calculation.

3. the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate according to claim 1 and 2 is characterized in that: obtain after the concentration of the material of the actual discharge in above-mentioned discharge source by actual measurement and set above-mentioned discharge source strength data.

4. the diffusion-condition predicting method of diffusate according to claim 1 and 2 is characterized in that: above-mentioned discharge source strength data according to the material concentration of the observation station actual measurement around in above-mentioned discharge source through the time change and set.

5. the diffusion-condition predicting system of a diffusate is characterized in that, this system comprises:

When diffusate is discharged in the atmosphere, the concentration of actual measurement diffusate, and the enterprise of the data of transmission expression diffusate discharge rate;

The weather data that sends meteorological measuring sends facility;

The supervisory department of government that resident's issue around above-mentioned enterprise and above-mentioned enterprise is taken refuge and announced; And

Carry out the computing of claim 1 or 2, the safety analysis center of the material concentration in the computational rules zone, the meteorological measuring that the data of the expression diffusate discharge rate that above-mentioned enterprise sends and above-mentioned weather data send the facility transmission is sent to above-mentioned safety analysis center by the information transmission means, the material concentration report at above-mentioned safety analysis center is sent to supervisory department of above-mentioned government by the information transmission means

Supervisory department of above-mentioned government issues the announcement of taking refuge according to the material concentration report that sends.

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