CN117952253A - Gas emission prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Gas emission prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a gas emission quantity prediction method, a device, electronic equipment and a storage medium, wherein the prediction method comprises the following steps: and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value by acquiring a first error value between a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the sample working surface and the actual gas emission quantity and a first pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface, so as to obtain a relation function between the first pressure value and the first error value. And correcting a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface through the relation function and a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, so as to obtain a gas emission quantity predicted result of the target working surface. Therefore, through monitoring the second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, the change trend of the gas emission quantity can be found in real time and predicted, and the prediction of the gas emission quantity is more accurate.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of mine safety, in particular to a gas emission prediction method, a device, electronic equipment and a storage medium.
Background
Coal is one of the most important energy sources for human development, is widely applied in industry, particularly plays an important role in power generation, life, metallurgy and the like, and still has an irreplaceable role in industry and life. In the advancing process of the mine tunneling working face, the stability of surrounding rock can be damaged due to the influence of mining, so that a large amount of gas and the like are released to the mining space, the concentration of the gas is too high, and normal production is influenced. The gas emission of the tunneling working face is reasonably controlled, the safe production of coal can be ensured, and the development and the utilization of coal resources are promoted. The kerosene-gas symbiotic mine is obviously different from the traditional mine, and the main difference factor is oil-type gas. The oil-gas is an important disaster factor of a kerosene-gas coexistence mine, the main abnormal emission points of the oil-gas coexistence mine are in discontinuous zone-shaped distribution on a plane, the emission positions are related to the form of sandstone on the top and bottom plates, the emission amount of the oil-gas coexistence mine is mainly related to the quality, thickness and the like of mudstone around a sandstone lens body, and the occurrence positions and reserves of the oil-gas coexistence mine are confirmed to be important work of safe production.
The traditional gas emission quantity prediction of the tunneling working face mainly comprises a coal falling emission quantity and a coal wall emission quantity, wherein main influencing factors comprise tunneling speed, section area, roadway length, initial gas emission quantity and the like. However, the traditional gas emission amount prediction method only considers the total amount of gas emission, and does not consider factors such as time, so that the prediction result may be inaccurate and stable, and the actual production requirement is difficult to meet.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the invention solves the problem that the gas emission quantity prediction result is inaccurate and stable in the prior art by providing the gas emission quantity prediction method, the device, the electronic equipment and the storage medium.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is:
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a gas emission amount, including: in the tunneling process of a sample working face, monitoring a first pressure value in an air storage layer corresponding to the sample working face and the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working face; acquiring a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method; determining a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission amount; fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the error value and the first pressure value; monitoring a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working face in the tunneling process of the target working face; acquiring a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method; and correcting the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value to obtain a target working face gas emission quantity predicted result.
In some possible implementations, during the tunneling process of the sample working surface, monitoring a first pressure value inside the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface and an actual gas emission amount of the sample working surface includes: drilling holes into the gas storage layer from a drilling field of the sample working surface according to the relative positions of the sample working surface and the gas storage layer; setting a pressure monitoring device at a drilling position to monitor a first pressure value; and monitoring the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working surface through a preset gas emission quantity monitoring device.
In some possible implementations, drilling from a drill site of the sample face to the reservoir layer according to the relative positions of the sample face and the reservoir layer, includes: determining the relative position of the gas storage layer and the sample working surface according to geological conditions of the position of the mine; determining data information of the drilling holes according to the relative positions and geological conditions, so that the final positions of the drilling holes are positioned in the gas storage layer; the drilling data information at least comprises the position and the angle of the drilling; and drilling holes from the drilling site of the working surface to the gas storage layer according to the data information of the drilling holes.
In some possible implementations, before the first predicted value of the gas emission amount of the working surface of the sample is obtained by a preset gas emission amount prediction method, the method further includes: acquiring a third predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method when the first pressure value is in a stable state; and when the second error value between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity does not meet the first preset condition, optimizing a preset gas emission quantity prediction method.
In some possible implementations, the preset fitting function is a polynomial; fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value, wherein the relation function comprises the following steps: acquiring a preset number of first pressure values and corresponding first error values to obtain a fitting data set; and solving the polynomial by fitting the data set to obtain a relation function.
In some possible implementations, after solving the polynomial by fitting the dataset to obtain the relationship function, the method further includes: determining whether the correlation coefficient of the relation function meets a second preset condition; when the correlation coefficient does not meet the second preset condition, increasing the times of the polynomial, and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value again; and outputting the relation function when the correlation coefficient meets a second preset condition.
In some possible implementations, the mine for which the sample face corresponds to the target face is a mine under the same geological conditions.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a gas emission amount prediction apparatus, including: the first monitoring module is used for monitoring a first pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working face and the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working face in the tunneling process of the sample working face; the first prediction module is used for obtaining a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working face of the sample through a preset gas emission quantity prediction method; the first determining module is used for determining a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity; the fitting module is used for fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value; the second monitoring module is used for monitoring a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working face in the tunneling process of the target working face; the second prediction module is used for obtaining a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface through a preset gas emission quantity prediction method; the obtaining module is used for correcting the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value to obtain a target working face gas emission quantity predicted result.
In some possible implementations, the first monitoring module is further configured to drill a hole from a drill site of the sample work surface to the gas reservoir layer based on the relative positions of the sample work surface and the gas reservoir layer; setting a pressure monitoring device at a drilling position to monitor a first pressure value; and monitoring the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working surface through a preset gas emission quantity monitoring device.
In some possible implementations, the first monitoring module is further configured to determine a relative position of the gas reservoir layer and the sample working surface according to geological conditions of the location of the mine; determining data information of the drilling holes according to the relative positions and geological conditions, so that the final positions of the drilling holes are positioned in the gas storage layer; the drilling data information at least comprises the position and the angle of the drilling; and drilling holes from the drilling site of the working surface to the gas storage layer according to the data information of the drilling holes.
In some possible implementations, the apparatus further includes: the optimizing module is used for obtaining a third predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample through a preset gas emission quantity predicting method when the first pressure value is in a stable state; and when the second error value between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity does not meet the first preset condition, optimizing a preset gas emission quantity prediction method.
In some possible implementations, the fitting module is further configured to obtain a preset number of first pressure values and corresponding first error values, to obtain a fitting dataset; and solving the polynomial by fitting the data set to obtain a relation function.
In some possible implementations, the fitting module is further configured to determine whether the correlation coefficient of the relationship function meets a second preset condition; when the correlation coefficient does not meet the second preset condition, increasing the times of the polynomial, and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value again; and outputting the relation function when the correlation coefficient meets a second preset condition.
In some possible implementations, the mine for which the sample face corresponds to the target face is a mine under the same geological conditions.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including: a memory for storing executable instructions; a processor for implementing a method as provided in the first aspect of the invention when executing executable instructions or a computer program stored in a memory.
In a fourth aspect, the invention provides a computer readable storage medium storing executable instructions for causing a processor to perform a method as provided in the first aspect of the invention.
One or more technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present invention at least have the following technical effects or advantages:
According to the invention, a first error value between a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of a sample working surface and the actual gas emission quantity and a first pressure value in a gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface are obtained, and the first error value and the first pressure value are fitted to obtain a relation function between the first pressure value and the first error value. And correcting a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface through the relation function and a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, so as to obtain a gas emission quantity predicted result of the target working surface. Therefore, through monitoring the second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, the change trend of the gas emission quantity can be found in real time and predicted, and the prediction of the gas emission quantity is more accurate.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly described below, and it will be apparent that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort to those of ordinary skill in the art.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a method for predicting gas emission in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a drill site according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3a is a cross-sectional front view of a drilling arrangement;
FIG. 3b is a cross-sectional top view of the structure of the drilling arrangement;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a device for predicting a gas emission amount according to an embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application.
In the description of the present embodiments, the terms "include, comprise, have," etc. are open-ended terms that generally and preferably include, but are not limited to; the term "at least one" is generally understood to mean one or more, where "plurality" means two or more; the term "at least one of (a)," or similar expressions thereof, refers to any combination of these items, including any combination of single item(s) or plural items(s), for example, "at least one of (a)," or "at least one of (a)," b and c ", each of which may represent: a, b, c, a-b (i.e., a and b), a-c, b-c, or a-b-c, wherein a, b, c may be single or multiple, respectively; the symbol "a/B" is used to describe a selected relationship of associated objects, and generally indicates a relationship of "or" before and after.
In the following description of the present embodiment, the terminology used in the embodiments of the application is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the application. As used in this application and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, in the following description of the present embodiment, the sequence number does not mean that the execution sequence is sequential, and some or all of the steps may be executed in parallel or sequentially, and the execution sequence of each process should be determined by its functions and inherent logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiment of the present application.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the numerical ranges in the embodiments of the present application are to be understood as also specifically disclosing each intermediate value between the upper and lower limits of the range. Every smaller range between any stated value or stated range, and any other stated value or intermediate value within the range, is also encompassed by the application. The upper and lower limits of these smaller ranges may independently be included or excluded in the range.
Unless otherwise defined, technical/scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs. Although only preferred methods and materials are described herein, any methods and materials similar or equivalent to those described herein can be used in the practice or testing of the present application. All documents referred to in this specification are incorporated by reference herein to disclose and describe the methods and/or materials in connection with which the documents are to be. In case of conflict with any incorporated document, the present specification will control.
In order to illustrate the technical scheme of the invention, the following description is made by specific examples.
Coal is one of the most important energy sources for human development, has an important role in industry, particularly in power generation, life, metallurgy and the like, has an irreplaceable role in industry and life, and can continuously and stably play a role in future social development. In the advancing process of the tunneling working face, the stability of surrounding rock can be damaged due to the influence of mining, so that a large amount of gas and the like are released to the mining space, the concentration of the gas is too high, and normal production is influenced. The gas emission of the tunneling working face is reasonably controlled, the safe production of coal can be ensured, and the development and the utilization of coal resources are promoted. The kerosene-gas symbiotic mine is obviously different from the traditional mine, and the main difference factor is oil-type gas. The oil-gas is an important disaster factor of a kerosene-gas coexistence mine, the main abnormal emission points of the oil-gas coexistence mine are in discontinuous zone-shaped distribution on a plane, the emission positions are related to the form of sandstone on the top and bottom plates, the emission amount of the oil-gas coexistence mine is mainly related to the quality, thickness and the like of mudstone around a sandstone lens body, and the occurrence positions and reserves of the oil-gas coexistence mine are confirmed to be important work of safe production.
The method aims at the key problems of the oil-type gas reservoir occurrence horizon, the influence range, the oil-type gas emission rule, the oil-type gas extraction treatment and the like, and has important guiding significance for oil-type gas treatment, prediction of the gas emission quantity of a tunneling working face and mine safety exploitation.
The traditional gas emission quantity prediction of the tunneling working face mainly comprises a coal falling emission quantity and a coal wall emission quantity, wherein main influencing factors comprise tunneling speed, section area, roadway length, initial gas emission quantity and the like. The method is strong in limitation, the traditional method is usually based on local information for prediction, the prediction capability of special geological conditions or complex mine structures is poor, and the situation of large errors is easy to occur. Meanwhile, the prediction result of the traditional method is unstable, and because the total amount of gas emission is often only considered, and factors such as time are not considered, the prediction result may be inaccurate and stable, and the actual production requirement is difficult to meet. Considering the single calculation mode, the gas emission amount in the coal-gas symbiotic mine cannot be accurately predicted.
Based on the method, the invention provides a gas emission quantity prediction method, and solves the problem that the gas emission quantity prediction result is inaccurate and stable in the prior art.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a gas emission prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 1, the method may include:
s101, monitoring a first pressure value in an air storage layer corresponding to a sample working surface and an actual gas emission amount of the sample working surface in a tunneling process of the sample working surface;
It should be noted that the working face may be referred to as a heading head, which means that when preparing for stoping the working face, a roadway is mined first, and the roadway includes functions of coal detection, coal digging, water detection, gas detection, and the like. Specifically, a single only-head roadway mainly used for tunneling and assisted by other geological conditions is not provided with an autonomous ventilation system, a channel directly leading to the ground is not provided, and support of the top and two sides of the roadway is needed, which is generally mechanical tunneling and blasting tunneling. In the embodiment of the invention, the working surface can be a roadway which is mined in a coal mine and is used for exploring and/or digging coal.
In some embodiments, the sample work surface may be a length of work surface selected from the overall work surface. The length of the sample working surface can be determined according to an empirical value or can be determined based on the requirements in the actual working process.
By way of example, the overall length of the overall face is 100 meters and the face 8 meters forward of the heading direction may be selected as the sample face prior to performing the heading work. Of course, the length of the working surface of the sample may be other values, which are not particularly limited in the embodiment of the present invention.
It can be appreciated that in the working face tunneling process, the overburden may be broken due to the mining influence, and the coal seam is broken, so that a large amount of gas is flushed out. In the tunneling process of the kerosene-gas symbiotic mine, the oil-type gas is usually stored in free form in the sandstone of the top and bottom of the coal seam, and the gas such as gas can be largely gushed into the mining space along with the movement of the overburden, the crack development and the like, so that the reservoir pressure is changed. That is, during the driving of the working surface, the mining effect may cause a change in the pressure of the gas reservoir layer over a range of the top of the working surface. Therefore, by studying the correlation between the pressure change of the gas storage layer in a certain range at the top of the working surface and the working surface gas emission amount, the prediction of the working surface gas emission amount can be realized.
In some embodiments, the step S101 may include:
S1011, drilling holes on the gas storage layer from a drilling field of the sample working surface according to the relative positions of the sample working surface and the gas storage layer;
S1012, setting a pressure monitoring device at the drilling position to monitor a first pressure value;
s1013, monitoring the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working face through a preset gas emission quantity monitoring device.
The drilling site of the working face is a site specially used for drilling when coal mining is carried out. The location is usually arranged at the corresponding position of the coal face according to the requirement of the coal face. In drilling sites, drills and other drilling equipment may be used to drill boreholes of depth into coal seams for gas drainage, water injection, dust fall, geological exploration, etc.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a drill site according to an embodiment of the present invention, and is shown in fig. 2, in which a sample working surface a includes two drill sites, which are disposed at different positions on two sides of the drill site a, and denoted by a1 and a2 respectively. Through boring to the gas storage layer from the drilling site, then through setting up pressure monitoring device, can realize the real-time pressure monitoring to the gas storage layer.
In some embodiments, the pressure monitoring device may be a pressure monitoring gauge with implementation display pressure data. Through the pressure monitoring meter with real-time display pressure data, the real-time monitoring and the recording of the first pressure value can be conveniently realized.
In some embodiments, detecting the actual gas emission of the sample work surface by the gas emission monitoring device may be directly measured by a differential pressure flow meter, a vortex shedding flow meter, or the like; or can also be combined by combining a thermal flowmeter with a differential pressure sensor, etc.; or may also be based on mass conservation principles by measuring the mass of the gas.
It should be noted that, in the embodiment of the invention, the prediction of the gas emission amount is realized by researching the correlation between the pressure change of the gas storage layer and the gas emission amount of the working surface. Then, the specific value of the gas emission amount of the working surface is related to the current pressure value of the gas storage layer. Therefore, the process of monitoring the first pressure value in the above step S1012 and the process of detecting the actual gas emission amount of the sample work surface in the above step S1013 may be performed simultaneously.
It will be appreciated that different formations have distinct features, based on differences in geologic conditions. Therefore, the position of the stratum with different positions of the mine can be determined through determining the geological conditions. Based on this, in some embodiments, the step S1011 described above may include:
s10111, determining the relative position of the gas storage layer and the sample working surface according to geological conditions of the position of the mine;
S10112, determining data information of the drilling holes according to the relative positions and geological conditions, and enabling final positions of the drilling holes to be located in the gas storage layers; the drilling data information at least comprises the position and the angle of the drilling;
s10113, drilling holes from the drilling site of the working surface to the gas storage layer according to the drilling data information.
Specifically, in the process of dividing the well Tian Deceng, the isochronal comparison relationship between the groups of layers of the coal mine can be established and the uniform group of layers is divided by comparing the elements such as the contact relationship between the geological drilling and the stratum, the sedimentary sequence or the gyratory and lithology combination relationship. At the same time as the marker layer is determined, the horizon of the oil and gas reservoir can be determined. By comparing the contact relationship between the geological borehole data and the formation, the age and deposition order of the formation can be known. Such information may be useful in determining the relative relationship between different formations to establish an isochronous contrast relationship. Such a comparison may be used to accurately identify and divide the formation, ensuring accurate interpretation of the formation. After the marker layer is determined, the horizon of the hydrocarbon reservoir may be further determined. The marker layer can be used as an important reference object for identifying and determining other stratum and can be used for determining the relative position and sequence of the stratum.
It should be noted that the deposition cycle is graded as a layer of the formation in the deposition history, which is affected by different levels of build events and deposition events, such that the overall deposition profile forms different levels of deposition cycle and deposition sequence. The deposition loops are large and small and can be divided from one stage to five stages: the first level reflects the sedimentary formations at different stages of construction, corresponding to the reservoirs and reservoirs. The marker layer determination includes establishing a correct isochronous contrast, preliminary knowledge of reservoir distribution characteristics and lateral variations. Under the control of the marking layer, the characteristics of lithology, deposition rotation, deposition phase sequence combination characteristics, electric property and the like are comprehensively considered, so that more accurate stratum division can be obtained. The marker layer can find lithology special and deposit stable marker layer on the core of the high-yield coring well. The pure mudstone, shale, oil shale or sandstone with small variation and stable thickness is generally selected as a marking layer on the section of sand and mudstone.
Thus, after the air reservoir is determined, the relative position of the air reservoir and the working surface of the sample can be further determined. And then the drilling data of the drilling hole can be determined by combining the conditions of the lithology of the top plate of the working face, the thickness of the coal bed, the mining height and the like.
In drilling, the position of the hole of the drill hole is selected to meet a certain design standard, for example, the position of the drill hole is generally selected according to design requirements, geological conditions, construction equipment and other factors. The appropriate angle is then selected to allow the borehole to pass through the top plate into the reservoir. The direction of the drilling hole deviates above the working surface of the sample, so that the final hole position of the drilling hole is ensured to be positioned in the gas storage layer. In addition, the hole opening of the drill hole is required to be sealed, and the pressure release of the measuring area caused by air leakage is prevented from affecting data acquisition.
In some embodiments, the number of boreholes in each drill site may be multiple, with each borehole being provided with a pressure monitoring device.
It will be appreciated that the oil-type gas is typically present in the gas reservoir in the form of gas pockets, which may be spaced apart from one another. The multi-position coverage is realized through a plurality of drilling holes, so that the coverage of monitoring the pressure of the gas storage layer can be improved.
When the pressure monitoring devices corresponding to the plurality of drilling holes cannot detect the pressure value, the final hole positions of the corresponding drilling holes are proved not to be in the range of the air bag. And the numerical values displayed by the pressure monitoring devices corresponding to the plurality of drilling holes are consistent, so that the probability that the final positions of the plurality of drilling holes are in the same air bag range is proved. And when the values displayed by the pressure monitoring devices are inconsistent, the final positions of the drilling holes are proved to be in different air bag ranges. Thus, through a plurality of drilling, can improve the monitoring range to gas storage layer pressure.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural view of a drilling arrangement in an embodiment of the present invention. Wherein fig. 3a is a cross-sectional front view of the drilling arrangement and fig. 3b is a cross-sectional top view of the structure of the drilling arrangement. Referring to fig. 3a to 3b, the number of the drill holes 1 is three, the three drill holes 1 are arranged at equal intervals in the drill field 3, each drill hole is provided with the same pressure monitoring device 2, the drill holes 1 penetrate through the middle layer 7 and then enter the gas storage layer 6, and the final holes 8 to 10 of the three drill holes 1 are respectively positioned in different gas bags 5, wherein 4 is the end head.
The drilling direction is the front of the tunneling direction, and the pressure change can be used for predicting the projection coverage range of the drilling and the final hole due to the advanced drilling. When the data is recorded, the recorded data comprises the tunneling length in addition to the first pressure value and the actual gas emission. Therefore, the pressure begins to change a certain distance before the tunneling working face reaches the tail end of the drill hole, and the pressure tends to be stable a certain distance away from the drill hole, so that the monitoring range of the drill hole can be determined.
S102, acquiring a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of a sample working surface by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
The preset gas emission prediction method can be any existing prediction method. For example, a gas emission amount gradient method is used for calculating the relative gas emission amount of a predicted working surface according to the elevation difference between the predicted working surface and a reference working surface through the known relative gas emission amount of a stope working surface and the known relative gas emission amount of the reference working surface. The method is characterized by respectively calculating the gas emission quantity of the coal wall of the tunnel of the tunneling working face and the gas emission quantity of the coal falling in tunneling according to the specific conditions of the working face and the actual measurement data of the mined area. Specifically, the preset gas emission prediction method can also be used for predicting the gas emission of the tunneling working face in national standard AQ/T1018-2006.
It can be appreciated that the existing gas emission prediction method only considers the total amount of gas emission. While the sample working surface is not tunneling, the reservoir pressure will generally tend to stabilize. The predicted value predicted by the preset gas emission amount prediction method is the same as the actual gas emission amount. Based on this, in some embodiments, before performing step S102 described above, the method may further include the steps of:
S1021, under the condition that the first pressure value is in a stable state, acquiring a third predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
S1022, when the second error value between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity does not meet the first preset condition, optimizing a preset gas emission quantity prediction method.
The first preset condition may be that the second error value does not exceed a set threshold. In the embodiment of the invention, when the first pressure value is in a stable state, if the second error between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission amount exceeds the preset condition, the error of the preset gas emission amount prediction method is too large, so that the error needs to be optimized. For example, retraining the prediction model, adding reference data, and the like. After the second error value meets the first preset condition, the subsequent steps can be continued.
S103, determining a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity;
s104, fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value;
It can be appreciated that the existing coal drop emission amount and coal wall emission amount prediction method mainly has the influence factors including tunneling speed, section area, roadway length, initial gas emission amount and the like. Therefore, the first error value does not actually change much with the change of the first pressure value within a certain tunneling distance, and is in a relatively stable state. Thus, the relation function between the first pressure value and the first error value may be represented by a simple function.
In some embodiments, the predetermined fitting function is a polynomial. The step S104 may specifically include the following steps:
S1041, acquiring a preset number of first pressure values and corresponding first error values to obtain a fitting data set;
s1042, solving the polynomial by fitting the data set to obtain a relation function.
Illustratively, the fitting dataset obtained by the above steps includes (x 0, y 0), (x 1, y 1) … (xn, yn), where x is the first pressure value data, y is the first error value data, and n is the number of data. The polynomial is represented by the following formula (1):
y＝anxn+an-1xn-1+...+a1x+a0 (1)
Where a n to a 0 are coefficients to be determined.
By polynomial fitting, an approximate relationship function may be obtained for representing the correlation between the first pressure value and the corresponding first error value. That is, after the first pressure value is obtained by the above method, the corresponding first error value can be obtained by the relation function.
It should be noted that the overfitting may result in a model that is too complex to interpret and apply. Therefore, in selecting the order of the polynomial, it is necessary to determine it according to the characteristics of the data and the actual requirements. Based on this, in some embodiments, after the step S1042, the method may further include the steps of:
S10421, determining whether the correlation coefficient of the relation function meets a preset condition;
S10422, when the correlation coefficient does not meet the second preset condition, increasing the times of the polynomial, and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value again;
S14023, outputting a relation function when the correlation coefficient meets a preset condition.
It will be appreciated that the correlation coefficient of a relational function is a statistic that measures the strength of a relationship between two data variables. The correlation coefficient can be used to understand and analyze the relationship between two variables and measure the correlation between the variables by a quantitative method. The correlation coefficient has a value ranging from-1 to 1, wherein-1 represents a complete negative correlation, 1 represents a complete positive correlation, and 0 represents no linear relationship. The larger the absolute value of the correlation coefficient, the stronger the relationship between the two variables. Thus, in some embodiments, the second preset condition may be whether the magnitude of the correlation coefficient meets a preset threshold.
The second preset condition may be, for example, a difference between the correlation coefficient and 1. For example, the second preset condition may be that the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.99 and less than or equal to 1.
In addition, after obtaining the relationship function, the method may further include verifying the feasibility of the relationship function in order to avoid overfitting. For example, the feasibility of the relationship function may be verified by cross-validation or by considering the actual application scenario, etc.
It can be understood that if each first pressure value and the corresponding first error value in the fitting data set are marked as coordinate values in the dot diagram, the curve function relationship between the first pressure value and the first error value piece can be obtained according to the curve formed by each point when the data amount in the fitting data set is enough. Thus, in some embodiments, the relationship function may be obtained by marking the fitted dataset in a point plot, constructing a relationship between the first error value and the first pressure value.
S105, monitoring a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working face in the tunneling process of the target working face;
In some embodiments, the mine for which the sample face corresponds to the target face may be a mine under the same geological conditions.
By way of example, the target and sample surfaces may be the same downhole surface. Or the target and sample surfaces may be different mine surfaces under the same geological conditions.
It will be appreciated that the gas reservoir layers of the same geological conditions are substantially similar and that the gas reservoir pressures are relatively similar. Thus, the relationship function obtained by the sample face calculation may be applied to the target face for the same geological condition.
The method for monitoring the second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface may be the same as the method for detecting the first pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface. The specific method for obtaining the first pressure value is already discussed in detail in the above steps S1011 to S1013 and steps S10111 to S10113, and for the sake of brevity, the description will not be repeated here.
S106, obtaining a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface through a preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
The method for obtaining the second predicted value may be the same as the method for obtaining the first predicted value. That is, the gas emission amount of the target working surface is predicted by a preset gas emission amount prediction method, such as a falling coal emission amount or a coal wall emission amount, so as to obtain a second predicted value.
And S107, correcting the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value to obtain a target working face gas emission quantity predicted result.
It will be appreciated that in the case where the actual amount of emission is determined, the difference between the second predicted value and the actual amount of emission is determined. Because the sample working surface and the target working surface are the same in the corresponding geological conditions, the corresponding gas storage layers, pressure and other data are the same or similar. The relationship function obtained by the above method can also indicate the relationship between the error value of the second predicted value and the actual emission amount and the second pressure value. Thus, after the second pressure value is obtained, the second pressure value is substituted into the above-described relational function, and a difference between the second predicted value and the actual surge amount can be obtained. And then correcting the second predicted value by adding the second predicted value of the difference value, so as to obtain a predicted result of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface.
In the embodiment of the invention, a first error value between a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of a sample working surface and the actual gas emission quantity and a first pressure value in a gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface are obtained, and the first error value and the first pressure value are fitted to obtain a relation function between the first pressure value and the first error value. And correcting a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface through the relation function and a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, so as to obtain a gas emission quantity predicted result of the target working surface. Therefore, through monitoring the second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface, the change trend of the gas emission quantity can be found in real time and predicted, and the prediction of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface is more accurate.
Based on the same inventive concept, an embodiment of the present invention provides a gas emission amount prediction apparatus, which includes a plurality of functional units for implementing the above gas emission amount prediction method.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a gas emission amount prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention, referring to fig. 4, the gas emission amount prediction apparatus 400 may include:
the first monitoring module 401 is configured to monitor, during a tunneling process of the sample working surface, a first pressure value inside the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface and an actual gas emission amount of the sample working surface;
the first prediction module 402 is configured to obtain a first predicted value of a gas emission amount of the working surface of the sample according to a preset gas emission amount prediction method;
A first determining module 403, configured to determine a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission amount;
The fitting module 404 is configured to fit the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function, so as to obtain a relationship function between the first error value and the first pressure value;
The second monitoring module 405 is configured to monitor, during a tunneling process of the target working surface, a second pressure value inside the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working surface;
A second prediction module 406, configured to obtain a second predicted value of the gas emission amount of the target working surface according to a preset gas emission amount prediction method;
the obtaining module 407 is configured to correct the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value, and obtain a predicted result of the gas emission amount of the target working surface.
In some possible implementations, the first monitoring module 401 is further configured to drill a hole from a drill site of the sample work surface to the gas reservoir layer according to the relative positions of the sample work surface and the gas reservoir layer; setting a pressure monitoring device at a drilling position to monitor a first pressure value; and monitoring the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working surface through a preset gas emission quantity monitoring device.
In some possible implementations, the first monitoring module 401 is further configured to determine a relative position of the gas storage layer and the sample working surface according to geological conditions of the location of the mine; determining data information of the drilling holes according to the relative positions and geological conditions, so that the final positions of the drilling holes are positioned in the gas storage layer; the drilling data information at least comprises the position and the angle of the drilling; and drilling holes from the drilling site of the working surface to the gas storage layer according to the data information of the drilling holes.
In some possible implementations, the apparatus further includes: the optimizing module is used for obtaining a third predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample through a preset gas emission quantity predicting method when the first pressure value is in a stable state; and when the second error value between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity does not meet the first preset condition, optimizing a preset gas emission quantity prediction method.
In some possible implementations, the fitting module 404 is further configured to obtain a preset number of first pressure values and corresponding first error values, to obtain a fitting dataset; and solving the polynomial by fitting the data set to obtain a relation function.
In some possible implementations, the fitting module 404 is further configured to determine whether the correlation coefficient of the relationship function meets a second preset condition; when the correlation coefficient does not meet the second preset condition, increasing the times of the polynomial, and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value again; and outputting the relation function when the correlation coefficient meets a second preset condition.
In some possible implementations, the mine for which the sample face corresponds to the target face is a mine under the same geological conditions.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiments of the present application provide an electronic device, which may be consistent with the gas emission amount prediction method in one or more of the above embodiments. Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application, and referring to fig. 5, an electronic device 500 may be general-purpose computer hardware, including a processor 501 and a memory 502.
In some possible implementations, the at least one processor may constitute any physical device having circuitry to perform logical operations on one or more inputs. For example, the at least one processor may include one or more Integrated Circuits (ICs) including Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), microchips, microcontrollers, microprocessors, all or part of a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or other circuit suitable for executing instructions or performing logic operations. The instructions executed by the at least one processor may, for example, be preloaded into a memory integrated with or embedded in the controller, or may be stored in a separate memory. The memory may include Random Access Memory (RAM), read Only Memory (ROM), hard disk, optical disk, magnetic media, flash memory, other permanent, fixed, or volatile memory, or any other mechanism that is capable of storing instructions. In some embodiments, at least one processor may comprise more than one processor. Each processor may have a similar structure, or the processors may have different configurations electrically connected or disconnected from each other. For example, the processors may be separate circuits or integrated in a single circuit. When more than one processor is used, the processors may be configured to operate independently or cooperatively. The processors may be coupled in electrical, magnetic, optical, acoustical, mechanical, or by other means that allow them to interact.
Based on the same inventive concept, the present application provides a computer storage medium storing computer executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, can implement the gas emission amount prediction method according to one or more embodiments described above.
In this specification, each embodiment is described in a progressive manner, and the same or similar parts of each embodiment are referred to each other, and each embodiment is mainly described as a difference from other embodiments.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present application, and not for limiting the present application; although the application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced with equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit of the application.
Claims (10)
1. The gas emission amount prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
Monitoring a first pressure value in an air storage layer corresponding to a sample working surface and an actual gas emission amount of the sample working surface in a tunneling process of the sample working surface;
Acquiring a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample by a preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
Determining a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission amount;
fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value;
Monitoring a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working face in the tunneling process of the target working face;
Acquiring a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface by the preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
And correcting the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value to obtain a predicted result of the gas emission quantity of the target working surface.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein monitoring the first pressure value inside the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface and the actual gas emission amount of the sample working surface during the tunneling process of the sample working surface comprises:
Drilling holes from a drilling site of the sample working surface to the gas storage layer according to the relative positions of the sample working surface and the gas storage layer;
Setting a pressure monitoring device at the drill hole to monitor the first pressure value;
And monitoring the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working surface through a preset gas emission quantity monitoring device.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein drilling the gas reservoir from the drill site of the sample face based on the relative position of the sample face and the gas reservoir comprises:
Determining the relative position of the gas storage layer and the sample working surface according to geological conditions of the position of the mine;
Determining data information of the drill hole according to the relative position and the geological condition, so that the final position of the drill hole is positioned in the gas storage layer; wherein the data information of the borehole at least comprises the position and angle of the borehole;
and drilling holes from the drilling site of the working surface to the gas storage layer according to the data information of the drilling holes.
4. The method of claim 1, further comprising, prior to obtaining the first predicted value of the sample face gas emission amount by a preset gas emission amount prediction method:
Acquiring a third predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the working surface of the sample by the preset gas emission quantity prediction method when the first pressure value is in a stable state;
And when the second error value between the third predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity does not meet the first preset condition, optimizing the preset gas emission quantity prediction method.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the predetermined fitting function is a polynomial; fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value, wherein the relation function comprises the following steps:
Acquiring a preset number of first pressure values and corresponding first error values to obtain a fitting data set;
And solving the polynomial through the fitting data set to obtain the relation function.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein after solving the polynomial by the fitting dataset to obtain the relationship function, the method further comprises:
determining whether the correlation coefficient of the relation function meets a second preset condition;
When the correlation coefficient does not meet the second preset condition, increasing the degree of the polynomial, and fitting the first error value and the first pressure value again;
and outputting the relation function when the correlation coefficient meets the second preset condition.
7. The method of any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the mine for which the sample face corresponds to the target face is a mine under the same geological conditions.
8. A gas emission amount prediction apparatus, comprising:
The first monitoring module is used for monitoring a first pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the sample working surface and the actual gas emission quantity of the sample working surface in the tunneling process of the sample working surface;
The first prediction module is used for obtaining a first predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the sample working face through a preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
The first determining module is used for determining a first error value between the first predicted value and the actual gas emission quantity;
The fitting module is used for fitting the first error value and the first pressure value through a preset fitting function to obtain a relation function between the first error value and the first pressure value;
the second monitoring module is used for monitoring a second pressure value in the gas storage layer corresponding to the target working face in the tunneling process of the target working face;
the second prediction module is used for obtaining a second predicted value of the gas emission quantity of the target working face through the preset gas emission quantity prediction method;
and the obtaining module is used for correcting the second predicted value through the relation function and the second pressure value to obtain a predicted result of the gas emission quantity of the target working face.
9. An electronic device, the electronic device comprising:
A memory for storing executable instructions;
A processor for implementing the method of any of claims 1 to 7 when executing executable instructions or computer programs stored in the memory.
10. A computer readable storage medium storing executable instructions or a computer program, which when executed by a processor implement the method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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