CN116400435B - Typhoon path prediction method and typhoon path prediction device - Google Patents
Typhoon path prediction method and typhoon path prediction device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a typhoon path prediction method and a typhoon path prediction device, which relate to the technical field of typhoon prediction and comprise the following steps: acquiring position information of a target path point of a target typhoon; constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points; interpolation is carried out between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and interpolation processing is carried out on the characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of target typhoons; determining the position information of the next path point based on the target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set; and determining the next path point as the current path point, repeating the steps to obtain a path prediction result, and solving the technical problem of lower accuracy of the conventional typhoon path prediction method.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of typhoon prediction, in particular to a typhoon path prediction method and device.
Background
Typhoons originate from tropical sea surfaces, and due to the high temperature, a large amount of seawater is evaporated into the air, forming a low-pressure center. With the change in air pressure and the movement of the earth itself, the inflowing air also rotates to form an air vortex rotating counterclockwise (in the northern hemisphere), which is called a tropical cyclone, called a tropical disturbance. As long as the air temperature does not drop, the sea water temperature is high enough, the tropical cyclone becomes stronger and stronger, and typhoons are finally formed.
Typhoons are common natural disasters in coastal areas, and have important influences on the safety of offshore navigation and the production and life of people in coastal areas. The accurate prediction of the movement track of typhoons has great significance for reducing typhoons. The similar path method is one of important means for predicting typhoons, and is to find out the similarity of the current typhoons in terms of appearance time, place, early moving path and the like in historical data, and take the similarity as an example model to be used as a prediction basis.
However, in the prior art, the similar path method generally limits time and space attributes, obtains similar historical typhoon data for comparison, constructs a new typhoon path and completes typhoon path forecast. In the prior art, a mode of linear connection between longitude and latitude points is generally adopted as a typhoon path, the deviation between the typhoon path and a real typhoon moving path is large, and the screening precision of the obtained similar typhoons is low.
An effective solution to the above-mentioned problems has not been proposed yet.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention aims to provide a typhoon path prediction method and device, so as to alleviate the technical problem of low accuracy of the existing typhoon path prediction method.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a typhoon path prediction method, including: an acquisition step of acquiring position information of a target path point of a target typhoon, wherein the target path point comprises: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point; a construction step, namely constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, wherein the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points; fitting, namely interpolating between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and performing interpolation processing on characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of the target typhoon; determining, based on target feature data of the target typhoon and a typhoon optimal path data set, position information of a next path point of the current path point; and determining the next path point as the current path point, and repeatedly executing the constructing step, the fitting step and the determining step to obtain a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
Further, determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle includes: constructing a first auxiliary fitting line of the first 2 path points in the historical path points, wherein the first auxiliary fitting line comprises a first straight line segment between the first 2 path points in the historical path points and a first target arc, and the first target arc is an arc with the nearest distance between the midpoint of an arc line between the first 2 path points in the historical path points in the first circumcircle; performing mean fitting on the first auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the first 2 path points in the historical path points; constructing a second auxiliary fitting line of the last 2 path points in the history path points, wherein the second auxiliary fitting line comprises a second target arc line and a third target arc line, the second target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the first circumscribing circle closest to a second straight line segment, the third target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the second circumscribing circle closest to the second straight line segment, and the second straight line segment is a straight line segment between the last 2 path points in the history path points; and carrying out mean fitting on the second auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the last 2 path points in the historical path points.
Further, based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points to obtain target feature data of the target typhoon, including: if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are the same, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the linear interpolation algorithm to obtain target feature data of the interpolation path points; if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are different, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain the target feature data of the interpolation path points.
Further, determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the target feature data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set includes: determining a target reference typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set based on target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set, wherein the target reference typhoon is typhoon with similarity between the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon being larger than a preset threshold; determining the moving direction and the moving distance of the target typhoon based on the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon; and determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the moving direction and the moving distance.
Further, determining a target reference typhoon in the typhoon best path data set based on the target feature data of the target typhoon and the typhoon best path data set, including: executing the constructing step and the fitting step on each typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set to obtain target feature data of typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set; respectively calculating Euclidean distances of each target characteristic data between the target typhoon and typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set; calculating the similarity between the target typhoons and typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set based on Euclidean distance of each target characteristic data; and determining typhoons with similarity larger than a preset threshold value in the typhoon optimal path data set as the target reference typhoons.
Further, the calculation formula of the moving direction is thatWherein n is the number of target reference typhoons, < >>For target typhoon->Is a predicted value of the movement direction of->For the direction of moving the longitude and latitude point of the end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time, +.>For target typhoon->Correlation coefficient with target reference typhoon i, < - >Target typhoon->Reference typhoons to the target->Is a correlation coefficient of (2); the calculation formula of the moving distance is as follows，/>Target typhoon->A movement distance prediction value of (a); />And (3) the distance moved by the longitude and latitude point of the tail end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time.
Further, time feature data in the target feature data of the target typhoon is converted into floating point data.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a typhoon path prediction apparatus, including: an obtaining unit, configured to obtain location information of a target path point of a target typhoon, where the target path point includes: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point; the construction unit is used for constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, wherein the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points; the fitting unit is used for interpolating between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and interpolating the characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of the target typhoon; the determining unit is used for determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set; and the prediction unit is used for determining the next path point as the current path point, controlling the construction unit, the fitting unit and the determination unit to repeatedly execute, and obtaining a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor, where the memory is configured to store a program for supporting the processor to execute the method described in the first aspect, and the processor is configured to execute the program stored in the memory.
In a fourth aspect, embodiments of the present invention also provide a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon.
According to the embodiment of the invention, through the actual condition of typhoon movement and the optimized fitting of the typhoon path, the typhoon path which is more in line with the actual condition is obtained; performing cubic spline interpolation on each feature of typhoons to obtain feature time sequence data with higher precision and denser density; by recoding the typhoon time characteristics, the information of typhoons on the time characteristics is better reserved. Therefore, the typhoon similarity is calculated more accurately, and the typhoon path is predicted more accurately.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, and it is obvious that the drawings in the description below are some embodiments of the present invention, and other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a typhoon path prediction method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a broken line path diagram of typhoons provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a target path point, a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of a typhoon path prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Embodiment one:
according to an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an embodiment of a typhoon path prediction method, it being noted that the steps shown in the flowchart of the drawings may be performed in a computer system such as a set of computer executable instructions, and although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different from that herein.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a typhoon path predicting method according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, the method comprising the steps of:
step S102, acquiring position information of a target path point of a target typhoon, wherein the target path point comprises: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point;
step S104, a construction step, namely constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, wherein the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points;
Step S106, a fitting step, namely interpolating between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and performing interpolation processing on characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of the target typhoon;
step S108, determining, namely determining the position information of a next path point of the current path point based on the target characteristic data of the target typhoon and a typhoon optimal path data set;
and step S110, determining the next path point as the current path point, and repeatedly executing the constructing step, the fitting step and the determining step to obtain a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
According to the embodiment of the invention, through the actual condition of typhoon movement and the optimized fitting of the typhoon path, the typhoon path which is more in line with the actual condition is obtained; performing cubic spline interpolation on each feature of typhoons to obtain feature time sequence data with higher precision and denser density; by recoding the typhoon time characteristics, the information of typhoons on the time characteristics is better reserved. Therefore, the typhoon similarity is calculated more accurately, and the typhoon path is predicted more accurately.
In the embodiment of the present invention, step S104 includes the following steps:
constructing a first auxiliary fitting line of the first 2 path points in the historical path points, wherein the first auxiliary fitting line comprises a first straight line segment between the first 2 path points in the historical path points and a first target arc, and the first target arc is an arc with the nearest distance between the midpoint of an arc line between the first 2 path points in the historical path points in the first circumcircle;
performing mean fitting on the first auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the first 2 path points in the historical path points;
constructing a second auxiliary fitting line of the last 2 path points in the history path points, wherein the second auxiliary fitting line comprises a second target arc line and a third target arc line, the second target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the first circumscribing circle closest to a second straight line segment, the third target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the second circumscribing circle closest to the second straight line segment, and the second straight line segment is a straight line segment between the last 2 path points in the history path points;
And carrying out mean fitting on the second auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the last 2 path points in the historical path points.
Typhoons are large storm systems driven by ocean heat, the motion track of which is affected by ambient air flow and earth rotation. Because typhoons are large in volume, there is some inertia in the movement, that is, typhoons do not change direction or speed immediately, and must be subjected to strong enough external force to change direction or speed. The prior art generally draws typhoon paths as polyline path graphs, as shown in fig. 2.
As can be seen from fig. 2, the typhoon path is generated according to the positions of the respective observation time points, with a remarkable inflection point, without considering the influence of the inertial effects of typhoons on the moving path. In the embodiment of the invention, path fitting is performed according to time, longitude and latitude information and a three-point circle-fixing principle in typhoon data, specifically, the longitude and latitude information of typhoons are ordered according to time, and sliding fitting is performed for one group of every three path points: and determining a unique circumcircle according to the three path points, and performing mean fitting on the connecting line of the two path points of typhoons at the arc intersection of the circumcircle to finally obtain the typhoons path between the path points.
Specifically, in the embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 3, taking the current path point as the fourth path point of the collected target typhoon as an example, the target path point includes four path points A, B, C and D.
And respectively making circumscribed circles c1 and c2 for three path points A, B, C and three path points B, C, D, and obtaining two auxiliary fitting lines for the AB section of the typhoon path, wherein the two auxiliary fitting lines are respectively a first straight line section between the AB two points and an arc line closest to the first straight line section in the middle point of the arc line in the arc line between the AB points on the circumscribed circle c 1.
And then, calculating the average fitting of two auxiliary fitting lines on the straight line of the two points AB for the typhoon path of the section AB to obtain the fitting result of the straight line and the circular arc, and obtaining the typhoon path between the two path points AB.
And obtaining two auxiliary fitting lines for the typhoon path BC section, wherein the two auxiliary fitting lines comprise an arc line with the closest distance between the midpoint of the arc line in the arc line between the BC and the BC on the first circumcircle c1 and an arc line with the closest distance between the midpoint of the arc line in the arc line between the BC and the BC on the second circumcircle c 2.
And calculating the mean fitting of two auxiliary fitting lines on the BC two-point straight line aiming at the BC segment typhoon path, and obtaining the fitting result of the two arcs as the typhoon path between the BC two path points.
It should be noted that, because the path point a is the initial path point of the target typhoon and is only on the first circumcircle, the typhoon path between the two path points AB cannot be determined by using the fitting method of two arcs.
After determining the next path point E of the current path point, two circumscribed circles may be constructed by using the path point B, C, D and the path point C, D, E, respectively, and then the typhoon path between the two path points of the CD may be determined by using the two arc fitting method described above.
Because the typhoon path optimization scheme in the prior art has the advantages that the typhoon track is simplified through Kalman filtering and a minimum fan-shaped simplification algorithm, most of path point information can be lost by the optimization method, so that the difference between the finally obtained typhoon path and the actual typhoon path is large, and the change of the typhoon moving path cannot be truly and completely reflected.
By means of the typhoon path fitting method, on one hand, the fitting path completely covers all information of known path points, all longitude and latitude information of a typhoon real path cannot be lost, and on the other hand, influence of inertia effect on typhoons can be fully considered, and a typhoon moving path close to a real situation is obtained.
In the embodiment of the present invention, step S106 includes the following steps:
if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are the same, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the linear interpolation algorithm to obtain target feature data of the interpolation path points;
if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are different, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain the target feature data of the interpolation path points.
In the embodiment of the invention, since the recording time intervals of typhoon data are not uniform and have data such as 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours and the like, the longitude and latitude information of the equal time intervals (the time intervals of 30 minutes or less are extracted as required) of each typhoon needs to be interpolated for the path of the target typhoon obtained in the construction step, so as to obtain the interpolation path point.
Then, spline interpolation fitting is performed on time sequence data of the characteristic data of the target typhoons except for longitude and latitude, such as characteristic data of wind speed, air pressure, moving speed and the like, so that characteristic data of the time interval of the target typhoons (namely, the target characteristic data of the target typhoons) can be obtained.
Because the changes of the characteristics of typhoon such as wind speed, air pressure, moving speed and the like are smooth rather than abrupt change, each characteristic change has obvious inflection points by directly connecting each data point by using linear interpolation, a smooth interpolation curve can be obtained by adopting a cubic spline interpolation method, the real situation of the characteristic data of the target typhoon can be better reflected, and the singular points possibly generated by other interpolation methods are avoided; the cubic spline interpolation can select different node distances and constraint conditions according to the distribution condition of the feature data at different time intervals, so that different interpolation equations are generated, and the characteristics of typhoon feature data at different time intervals are adapted.
Therefore, the cubic spline interpolation is applied to the interpolation of each feature of typhoon, so that the accuracy and reliability of the interpolation can be effectively improved, and the change trend of each feature of typhoon can be better and more finely reflected.
Specifically, if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are the same, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using a linear interpolation algorithm to obtain target feature data of the interpolation path points;
If the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are different, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain the target feature data of the interpolation path points.
For example, if the wind speed data of a typhoon is [23,23,20,18,16,15], the interpolation of 23 to 23 segments takes the linear interpolation result 23, and the interpolation of the rest segments takes the cubic spline interpolation result. Through the steps, the problem of inaccurate interpolation data caused by data oscillation generated by cubic spline interpolation in a period of unchanged typhoon characteristic values is avoided.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the method further includes:
and converting time characteristic data in the target characteristic data of the target typhoon into floating point data.
In the embodiment of the invention, when the target characteristic data of the target typhoon is obtained, the time characteristic data of the target characteristic data is subjected to month and day data screening, month data is used as an integer part of floating point type data, and day data is used as a decimal part of floating point type data, so that new characteristic data is obtained.
Specifically, the month value is taken as an integer part of floating point data, the fraction ratio of the hours of the current time is calculated according to the total hours of the current month, the fraction part of the floating point data is obtained, the data of 2009-09-27T11:30:00 is taken as an example, the month value 9 is taken as the integer part of the floating point data, the total hours of the current month is 30×24=720, the hours of the current time is 27×24+11.5= 659.5, the fraction part of the floating point data is 659.5/720= 0.915972222222, and the typhoon time characteristic can be recoded to 9.915972222222.
On one hand, typhoons are obviously influenced by seasonal factors, in summer and autumn, the surface temperature of the ocean on the western pacific is higher, so that the generation opportunity of typhoons is larger, the wind direction of the western pacific is mainly controlled by the monsoon in northeast direction and in southeast direction, and the typhoon path tends to be in northwest direction or in northern direction; in winter and spring, the temperature of the seawater is lower, the possibility of typhoon generation is correspondingly reduced, the wind direction is mainly controlled by winter monsoon from northwest to northwest, and the typhoon path is always in southeast or south. On the other hand, since the climate conditions vary from year to year, the climate conditions on the annual scale are not more similar the closer they are, for example, the years in which the climate conditions affecting typhoons are similar may differ by several years, which is also affected by el nino or lanina, typhoons in different years cannot take the similarity of the year data as an evaluation criterion, and typhoons in which the seasonal conditions are similar are also more similar in their paths, effects, etc. According to the embodiment of the invention, the influence of seasonal factors on typhoons and the interference of annual factors on typhoons similarity analysis are fully considered, and typhoons time characteristics are extracted more accurately, so that the subsequent calculation of typhoons similarity is more accurate.
In the embodiment of the present invention, step S108 includes the steps of:
determining a target reference typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set based on target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set, wherein the target reference typhoon is typhoon with similarity between the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon being larger than a preset threshold;
determining the moving direction and the moving distance of the target typhoon based on the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon;
and determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the moving direction and the moving distance.
The typhoon optimal path data set refers to a data set in which typhoon paths have been recorded over the years, and is generally issued by a weather department or a related institution, and the data set includes information such as a position, time, and intensity of each typhoon.
Because the data acquisition time intervals of different typhoons in the typhoons optimal path data set may be different, the time interval may be 1 hour, 3 hours or 6 hours, and the newly generated real-time target typhoons data is similar to the typhoons optimal path data, and is information such as longitude and latitude, intensity, grade and the like every n hours. Therefore, the construction step and the fitting step are required to be executed on each typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set to obtain the target feature data of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set so that the target feature data of the typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set and the target feature data of the target typhoon are in the same time interval.
After target feature data of typhoons and target feature data of target typhoons in typhoons optimal path data set are obtained, target feature data minimum-maximum scaling (Min-Max scaling) is normalized to eliminate dimension influence between indexes. The Euclidean distance between vectors corresponding to each target characteristic data between the target typhoons and typhoons in the typhoons optimal path data set is calculated according to the following calculation formula:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,feature vector euclidean distance representing index number 1 between two typhoons, (-)>) Vector of target characteristic data for target typhoons, (-)>) The vector of target characteristic data of any typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set is represented by n, which is the data quantity of target typhoon target characteristic data. The smaller the euclidean distance, the higher the similarity between them.
The final calculation formula of the similarity between the two typhoons is as follows:
wherein, the liquid crystal display device comprises a liquid crystal display device,representing the similarity between two typhoons, m being the number of all numerical features of the typhoons,/>For the weighting coefficient of typhoon feature with t item number, the weighting coefficient is empirically valued (the following example), and +_>Euclidean distance for typhoon feature numbered as item t.
For example, the existing indexes that can be used to calculate the typhoon similarity include 6 items of current typhoon time, longitude, latitude, wind speed, air pressure and moving speed, the weight coefficients of the 6 items are respectively set to 0.3, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1, and euclidean distances of feature vectors of the 6 indexes between two typhoons are respectively 0.5, 8.8, 7.7, 2.3, 2.8 and 5.5, so that the typhoon similarity is 1/(0.3×0.5+0.2×8.8+0.2×7.7+0.1×2.3+0.1×2.8+0.1×5.5) = 0.221729490022.
Because the dimension of the characteristic data of the target typhoon is usually smaller than that of typhoons in the optimal path data set, the step of calculating the typhoons similarity performs sliding value calculation on the characteristic data on the typhoons in the optimal path data set, and the highest similarity is taken as the final similarity between the historical typhoons and the target typhoons.
For example, when the time range of the current target typhoon feature data is 2023-04-05:00-2023-04-06 7:00, after the data is processed according to the steps, the time interval of the data recording time is half an hour, the feature data of 48 time points are shared, the target feature data time range of typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set is 2020-04-03:00-2020-04-16:00, the feature data of 618 time points are shared, historical typhoons data 1-48, 2-49 and 3-50 … lines 570-618 (data of a prediction period should be reserved in practical application, if a typhoon path of 1 hour needs to be predicted, the data should be 568-616 lines finally) are subjected to similarity calculation, and a group of data with the highest similarity is taken as the similarity of typhoons in the target typhoons and the typhoon optimal path data set.
And then, screening out target reference typhoons with the similarity between the typhoons and the target typhoons in the typhoons optimal path data set being greater than a preset threshold value.
And then, calculating the longitude and latitude of at least one time point in the future of the target typhoon based on the similarity weighting according to the moving direction and distance from the longitude and latitude point at the tail of the similar section of the target reference typhoon to the longitude and latitude point after a period of time.
Specifically, the calculation formula of the moving direction is as followsWherein n is the number of target reference typhoons, < ->For target typhoon->Is a predicted value of the movement direction of->For the direction of moving the longitude and latitude point of the end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time, +.>For target typhoon->Correlation coefficients with the target reference typhoons i,target typhoon->Reference typhoons to the target->Is of the correlation coefficient of (2)。
The calculation formula of the moving distance is，/>Target typhoon->A movement distance prediction value of (a); />And (3) the distance moved by the longitude and latitude point of the tail end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time.
And calculating to obtain the longitude and latitude information of the next path point of the current path point of the target typhoon according to the moving direction predicted value, the moving distance predicted value and the current longitude and latitude coordinates of the target typhoon.
And finally, determining the next path point of the current path point as the current path point, and repeatedly executing the steps to obtain a complete path prediction result of the target typhoon.
Embodiment two:
the embodiment of the invention also provides a typhoon path prediction device, which is used for executing the typhoon path prediction method provided by the embodiment of the invention, and the following is a specific introduction of the typhoon path prediction device provided by the embodiment of the invention.
As shown in fig. 4, fig. 4 is a schematic view of the typhoon path predicting apparatus, which includes:
an acquiring unit 10, configured to acquire position information of a target path point of a target typhoon, where the target path point includes: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point;
a construction unit 20, configured to construct a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determine a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, where the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points;
The fitting unit 30 is configured to interpolate, based on a preset time interval, between two adjacent path points in the target path points to obtain interpolated path points, and interpolate, based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm, feature data of the interpolated path points to obtain target feature data of the target typhoon;
a determining unit 40, configured to determine location information of a next path point of the current path point based on target feature data of the target typhoon and a typhoon optimal path data set;
and a prediction unit 50, configured to determine the next path point as the current path point, and control the construction unit, the fitting unit, and the determination unit to repeatedly execute, so as to obtain a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
According to the embodiment of the invention, through the actual condition of typhoon movement and the optimized fitting of the typhoon path, the typhoon path which is more in line with the actual condition is obtained; performing cubic spline interpolation on each feature of typhoons to obtain feature time sequence data with higher precision and denser density; by recoding the typhoon time characteristics, the information of typhoons on the time characteristics is better reserved. Therefore, the typhoon similarity is calculated more accurately, and the typhoon path is predicted more accurately.
Embodiment III:
an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor, where the memory is configured to store a program that supports the processor to execute the method described in the first embodiment, and the processor is configured to execute the program stored in the memory.
Referring to fig. 5, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an electronic device 100, including: a processor 60, a memory 61, a bus 62 and a communication interface 63, the processor 60, the communication interface 63 and the memory 61 being connected by the bus 62; the processor 60 is arranged to execute executable modules, such as computer programs, stored in the memory 61.
The memory 61 may include a high-speed random access memory (RAM, random Access Memory), and may further include a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one magnetic disk memory. The communication connection between the system network element and at least one other network element is achieved via at least one communication interface 63 (which may be wired or wireless), and may use the internet, a wide area network, a local network, a metropolitan area network, etc.
Bus 62 may be an ISA bus, a PCI bus, an EISA bus, or the like. The buses may be classified as address buses, data buses, control buses, etc. For ease of illustration, only one bi-directional arrow is shown in FIG. 5, but not only one bus or type of bus.
The memory 61 is configured to store a program, and the processor 60 executes the program after receiving an execution instruction, and the method executed by the apparatus for flow defining disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments of the present invention may be applied to the processor 60 or implemented by the processor 60.
The processor 60 may be an integrated circuit chip having signal processing capabilities. In implementation, the steps of the above method may be performed by integrated logic circuitry in hardware or instructions in software in the processor 60. The processor 60 may be a general-purpose processor, including a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), and the like; but may also be a digital signal processor (Digital Signal Processing, DSP for short), application specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC for short), off-the-shelf programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA for short), or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic device, discrete hardware components. The disclosed methods, steps, and logic blocks in the embodiments of the present invention may be implemented or performed. A general purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may be any conventional processor or the like. The steps of the method disclosed in connection with the embodiments of the present invention may be embodied directly in the execution of a hardware decoding processor, or in the execution of a combination of hardware and software modules in a decoding processor. The software modules may be located in a random access memory, flash memory, read only memory, programmable read only memory, or electrically erasable programmable memory, registers, etc. as well known in the art. The storage medium is located in a memory 61 and the processor 60 reads the information in the memory 61 and in combination with its hardware performs the steps of the method described above.
Embodiment four:
the embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the computer readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method in the first embodiment are executed.
In addition, in the description of embodiments of the present invention, unless explicitly stated and limited otherwise, the terms "mounted," "connected," and "connected" are to be construed broadly, and may be, for example, fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; can be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, and can be communication between two elements. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present invention will be understood in specific cases by those of ordinary skill in the art.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the directions or positional relationships indicated by the terms "center", "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "inner", "outer", etc. are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings, are merely for convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the devices or elements referred to must have a specific orientation, be configured and operated in a specific orientation, and thus should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Furthermore, the terms "first," "second," and "third" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
In the several embodiments provided by the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices, and methods may be implemented in other manners. The above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, for example, the division of the units is merely a logical function division, and there may be other manners of division in actual implementation, and for example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be through some communication interface, device or unit indirect coupling or communication connection, which may be in electrical, mechanical or other form.
The units described as separate units may or may not be physically separate, and units shown as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
In addition, each functional unit in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units may be integrated in one unit.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above examples are only specific embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited thereto, and that the present invention is described in detail with reference to the foregoing examples: any person skilled in the art may modify or easily conceive of the technical solution described in the foregoing embodiments, or perform equivalent substitution of some of the technical features, while remaining within the technical scope of the present disclosure; such modifications, changes or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and are intended to be included in the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A typhoon path prediction method, comprising:
an acquisition step of acquiring position information of a target path point of a target typhoon, wherein the target path point comprises: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point;
A construction step, namely constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, wherein the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points;
fitting, namely interpolating between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and performing interpolation processing on characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of the target typhoon;
determining, based on target feature data of the target typhoon and a typhoon optimal path data set, position information of a next path point of the current path point;
and determining the next path point as the current path point, and repeatedly executing the constructing step, the fitting step and the determining step to obtain a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a typhoon path between two adjacent ones of the historical path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle comprises:
constructing a first auxiliary fitting line of the first 2 path points in the historical path points, wherein the first auxiliary fitting line comprises a first straight line segment between the first 2 path points in the historical path points and a first target arc, and the first target arc is an arc with the nearest distance between the midpoint of an arc line between the first 2 path points in the historical path points in the first circumcircle;
performing mean fitting on the first auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the first 2 path points in the historical path points;
constructing a second auxiliary fitting line of the last 2 path points in the history path points, wherein the second auxiliary fitting line comprises a second target arc line and a third target arc line, the second target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the first circumscribing circle closest to a second straight line segment, the third target arc line is an arc line with the midpoint of an arc line between the last 2 path points in the history path points in the second circumscribing circle closest to the second straight line segment, and the second straight line segment is a straight line segment between the last 2 path points in the history path points;
And carrying out mean fitting on the second auxiliary fitting line to obtain typhoon paths between the last 2 path points in the historical path points.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein interpolating the feature data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target feature data of the target typhoon comprises:
if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are the same, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the linear interpolation algorithm to obtain target feature data of the interpolation path points;
if the feature data corresponding to two adjacent path points in the interpolation path points are different, performing interpolation processing on the feature data of the interpolation path points between the two adjacent path points in the target path points by using the cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain the target feature data of the interpolation path points.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein determining location information for a next path point to the current path point based on target feature data of the target typhoon and a typhoon best path dataset comprises:
Determining a target reference typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set based on target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set, wherein the target reference typhoon is typhoon with similarity between the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon being larger than a preset threshold;
determining the moving direction and the moving distance of the target typhoon based on the target reference typhoon and the target typhoon;
and determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the moving direction and the moving distance.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein determining a target reference typhoon in the typhoon best path dataset based on target feature data of the target typhoon and the typhoon best path dataset comprises:
executing the constructing step and the fitting step on each typhoon in the typhoon optimal path data set to obtain target feature data of typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set;
respectively calculating Euclidean distances of each target characteristic data between the target typhoon and typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set;
calculating the similarity between the target typhoons and typhoons in the typhoon optimal path data set based on Euclidean distance of each target characteristic data;
And determining typhoons with similarity larger than a preset threshold value in the typhoon optimal path data set as the target reference typhoons.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein the step of determining the position of the first electrode is performed,
the calculation formula of the moving direction is thatWherein n is the number of target reference typhoons, < >>For target typhoon->Is a predicted value of the movement direction of->For the direction of moving the longitude and latitude point of the end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time, +.>For target typhoon->Correlation coefficient with target reference typhoon i, < ->For target typhoon->Reference typhoons to the target->Is a correlation coefficient of (2);
the calculation formula of the moving distance is as follows，/>Target tableWind->A movement distance prediction value of (a); />And (3) the distance moved by the longitude and latitude point of the tail end of the similar section of the target reference typhoon i after a period of time.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method further comprises:
and converting time characteristic data in the target characteristic data of the target typhoon into floating point data.
8. A typhoon path predicting apparatus, comprising:
an obtaining unit, configured to obtain location information of a target path point of a target typhoon, where the target path point includes: a current path point and a historical path point, wherein the historical path point is 3 path points before the current path point;
The construction unit is used for constructing a first circumscribed circle and a second circumscribed circle based on the position information of the target path point and a 3-point rounding algorithm, and determining a typhoon path between two adjacent path points in the history path points based on the first circumscribed circle and the second circumscribed circle, wherein the first circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the history path points, and the second circumscribed circle is a circumscribed circle constructed based on the last three path points in the target path points;
the fitting unit is used for interpolating between two adjacent path points in the target path points based on a preset time interval to obtain interpolation path points, and interpolating the characteristic data of the interpolation path points based on a linear interpolation algorithm and/or a cubic spline interpolation fitting algorithm to obtain target characteristic data of the target typhoon;
the determining unit is used for determining the position information of the next path point of the current path point based on the target characteristic data of the target typhoon and the typhoon optimal path data set;
and the prediction unit is used for determining the next path point as the current path point, controlling the construction unit, the fitting unit and the determination unit to repeatedly execute, and obtaining a path prediction result of the target typhoon.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory for storing a program supporting the processor to perform the method of any one of claims 1 to 7, and a processor configured to execute the program stored in the memory.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program, when being executed by a processor, performs the steps of the method according to any of the preceding claims 1 to 7.
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