CN114819278A - Method for improving prediction precision of east Pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological features and ship position state - Google Patents
Method for improving prediction precision of east Pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological features and ship position state Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a prediction precision improving method for a pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological characteristics and a ship position state, which adopts the middle-layer water temperature and the isotherm dense region position thereof, ocean current vortex, cold and warm vortex and the ship position state characteristics to multiply construct the precise identification of the squid fishery, and realizes the improvement of the prediction precision of the squid fishery by a method of indicating a central fishery by real-time and predicted hydrological and ship position data; the position of a high-yield area of the fishing ground is timely mastered by adopting real-time ship position and ship position state analysis, the fishing ground forecasting accuracy is further improved, the purpose of improving the forecasting precision is achieved, and the forecasting precision is expected to be improved by 10-20%; the difficulty that the squid center fishery is difficult to predict is effectively solved, and accurate theoretical guidance is provided for fishery production and fishery transfer.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of prediction of marine fishery, and particularly relates to a prediction precision improving method of a pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological features and a ship position state.
Background
With the coming of remote sensing, ocean mode, ship position monitoring and big data era, ocean fishery prediction becomes more refined and accurate, a refined fishery prediction method is established by means of detecting ocean three-dimensional space and depicting ocean environment with fine scale and combining fishing ground change rule, and meanwhile, prediction-based hydrological environment and fishery fleet dynamic central fishery prediction are achieved by means of real-time ship position and visual fishery system software.
The east Pacific ocean is one of important squid fisheries in the world, the main fish species are soft-shelled fishes, the distribution range is wide, the resource amount is high, the high fishing pressure can be supported, the high fishing amount can be obtained, and the east Pacific ocean is an important fishery area of coastal countries and open sea fisheries. Because the fishing ground changes greatly and the available key reference index of the fishing ground is difficult to realize real-time visualization and availability, the precision difficulty of the fishing ground is larger, and the accuracy rate has larger lifting space. Therefore, data mining of middle-layer hydrological features and real-time ship position states is needed to identify a refined fishing ground, and meanwhile, a prediction precision improving method and flow of the east Pacific squid fishing ground are researched and developed, so that fishery production can be further guided, and efficiency is improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a prediction precision improving method for a east pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological features and a ship position state, and the precision prediction and precision improving method for the east pacific squid fishery can be summarized and summarized.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a prediction precision improving method for a east Pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological characteristics and a ship position state is characterized in that accurate identification of the squid fishery is repeatedly constructed by adopting middle-layer (100 m or 50 m water layer) water temperature and an isotherm dense area position thereof, ocean current vortexes (anticlockwise vortexes or clockwise vortexes), cold and warm vortexes and ship position state characteristics, and the improvement of the prediction precision of the fishery is realized by constructing a method for indicating a central fishery through real-time and predicted hydrological and ship position data, and comprises the following steps:
(1) preliminarily determining the positions of the east Pacific squid fishery by adopting the forecasted middle-layer water temperature (firstly selecting a 100-meter water layer and then referring to a 50-meter water layer) and the isothermal line dense area, further reducing the range of the fishery by combining the water temperature contour line dense area around the ocean current vortex, and brushing 5 central fisheries (see figure 1); the optimal water temperature of the 100 m water layer of the 1-month fishing site area is 14.5-15.5 ℃, and the optimal water temperature for 2 months is 14.4-14.8 ℃;
(2) the optimal water temperature difference of the 100-meter water layer in each month fishing field area is 1-2 ℃; the optimal water temperature of the water layer of 100 meters in each month is about 15 ℃;
(3) the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground in the 30-60 seas around the cold vortex and the upflow of the 100-meter water layer is higher; the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground at the periphery of the warm vortex is low;
(4) judging the ship position state by combining the ship position track data in the fishing season; the ship position mainly comprises fishing and sailing, the ship speed is 0.1-1 knots in the fishing period, and the ship speed is 4.5-8 knots in the sailing period; the concentrated distribution area of the central fishing ground of the squid can be roughly judged according to the ship position distribution (small black spots, see figure 2), and which fishing ground is better can be judged in advance by combining the real-time identification of the ship position state;
(5) the range and the number of the central fishing grounds of the squid can be preliminarily determined according to the spatial characteristics of the water temperature, the vortex and the rising ocean current hydrology of the middle layer in the steps, and the optimal central fishing ground (see figure 3) can be screened out again by combining the distribution of the ship positions and the accurate identification of the state of the ship positions in real time, so that the forecasting precision of the fishing ground is effectively improved;
(6) by adopting the method for distinguishing the states of the hydrological features and the ship positions in real time based on the middle layer, the prediction precision of the squid fishery can be improved by 10-20%.
As a preferred embodiment, the change rule of the squid fishery in the step (1) can be summarized by the identification of real-time hydrological features and the state of the ship position and the production data after more than 3 months.
As a preferred embodiment, the water temperature of the middle layer in the step (1) is preferably 100 meters of water layer, and then 50 meters of water layer is referred.
As a preferred embodiment, the isotherm-dense area and the ocean current vortex direction in the step (1) adopt prediction data of a fishing time period in the same day, and can also predict a fishing ground hydrological characteristic field 1-3 days in the future.
As a preferred embodiment, the ascending flow of the step (3) adopts prediction data of the fishing time period in the same day, and can also predict the fishing ground hydrological characteristic field 1-3 days in the future.
As a preferred embodiment, the fishing boat position and the boat position state in the step (4) are judged by adopting AIS or boat position monitoring platform data; the position state identification can be judged mainly by adopting a navigational speed threshold value method; the boat position mainly aims at fishing and sailing, generally fishing at night in local time and sailing to transfer or detect a fishing ground in the daytime.
As a preferred embodiment, the water temperature and ocean current in the step (5) are not suitable for surface hydrological data, and the surface is affected by the mixing of wind and waves, so that the environmental field of the water layer where the squid is located cannot be accurately expressed; 4-5 primarily selected fishing grounds are provided; and further optimizing the position of the fishing ground by combining the ship position state of the fishing ground so as to determine the optimal central fishing ground.
As a preferred embodiment, the perching water layer is a 50-150 m water layer.
As a preferred embodiment, the squid fishery forecasting precision of the step (6) can be further improved, short-term forecasting can be realized through hydrological characteristics of the next few days, and effective basis is provided for fishing boat production decision and fishing ground transfer.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and positive effects:
1. the middle-layer hydrological elements are adopted to indicate that the east Pacific fishery has higher accuracy, the surface ocean current and the surface water temperature are influenced by wind waves, and the environmental characteristics of the actual water layer where the squids inhabit are difficult to reflect, so the middle-layer hydrological characteristics more accurately reflect the environmental characteristic field of the squid fishery;
2. the position of a high-yield area of the fishing ground is timely grasped by analyzing the states of the ship position and the ship position in real time, the forecasting accuracy of the fishing ground is further improved, the purpose of improving the forecasting accuracy is achieved, and the forecasting accuracy is expected to be improved by 10-20%.
3. The difficulty that the squid center fishery is difficult to predict is effectively solved, and accurate theoretical guidance is provided for fishery production and fishery transfer.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing the relation between the central fishing ground of the east Pacific squid and the hydrological characteristics.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the track characteristics of a pacific squid fishing boat and the indication relationship of a central fishing ground.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the prediction accuracy improvement process of a east Pacific squid fishery.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further illustrated with reference to the following specific examples. It should be understood that these examples are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Further, it should be understood that various changes or modifications of the present invention may be made by those skilled in the art after reading the teaching of the present invention, and such equivalents may fall within the scope of the present invention as defined in the appended claims.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1, 2 and 3, a prediction precision improving method for a pacific squid fishery based on middle-layer hydrological characteristics and a ship position state adopts the characteristics of the water temperature of a middle layer (100 meters or 50 meters water layer) and an isotherm dense area position thereof, ocean current vortexes (anticlockwise vortexes or clockwise vortexes), cold vortexes and warm vortexes to multiply construct accurate identification of the squid fishery, and realizes the improvement of the prediction precision of the fishery by constructing a central fishery through real-time and predicted hydrological and ship position data indication method, and comprises the following steps:
(1) preliminarily determining the positions of the east Pacific squid fishery by adopting the forecasted middle-layer water temperature (firstly selecting a 100-meter water layer and then referring to a 50-meter water layer) and the isothermal line dense area, further reducing the range of the fishery by combining the water temperature contour line dense area around the ocean current vortex, and brushing 5 central fisheries (see figure 1); the optimal water temperature of the 100 m water layer of the 1-month fishing site area is 14.5-15.5 ℃, and the optimal water temperature for 2 months is 14.4-14.8 ℃;
(2) the optimal water temperature difference of the 100-meter water layer in each month fishing field area is 1-2 ℃; the optimal water temperature of the water layer of 100 meters in each month is about 15 ℃;
(3) the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground in the 30-60 seas around the cold vortex and the upflow of the 100-meter water layer is higher; the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground at the periphery of the warm vortex is low;
(4) judging the ship position state by combining the ship position track data in the fishing season; the ship position mainly comprises fishing and sailing, the ship speed is 0.1-1 knots in the fishing period, and the ship speed is 4.5-8 knots in the sailing period; the concentrated distribution area of the central fishing ground of the squid can be roughly judged according to the ship position distribution (small black spots, see figure 2), and which fishing ground is better can be judged in advance by combining the real-time identification of the ship position state;
(5) the range and the number of the central fishing grounds of the squid can be preliminarily determined according to the spatial characteristics of the water temperature, the vortex and the rising ocean current hydrology of the middle layer in the steps, and the optimal central fishing ground (see figure 3) can be screened out again by combining the distribution of the ship positions and the accurate identification of the state of the ship positions in real time, so that the forecasting precision of the fishing ground is effectively improved;
(6) by adopting a method for distinguishing the states of the middle-layer hydrological features and the ship positions in real time, the prediction precision of the squid fishery can be improved by 10-20%;
and (4) forecasting data of the fishing time period of the day is adopted in the rising flow of the step (3), and a fishing ground hydrological characteristic field of 1-3 days in the future can be forecasted.
The fishing boat position and the boat position state in the step (4) are judged by adopting AIS or boat position monitoring platform data; the position state identification can be judged mainly by adopting a navigational speed threshold value method; the boat position mainly aims at fishing and sailing, generally fishing at night in local time and sailing to transfer or detect a fishing ground in the daytime.
The water temperature and ocean current in the step (5) are not suitable for adopting surface hydrological data, and the surface is affected by the mixed wind and wave, so that the environmental field of the water layer where the squids are located cannot be accurately expressed; 4-5 primarily selected fishing grounds are provided; and further optimizing the position of the fishing ground by combining the ship position state of the fishing ground so as to determine the optimal central fishing ground.
The perching water layer is a 50-150 m water layer.
The squid fishery forecasting precision in the step (6) can be further improved, short-term forecasting can be realized through hydrological characteristics of the next few days, and effective basis is provided for fishing boat production decision and fishing ground transfer.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles and broad features of the present invention and advantages thereof. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (9)
1. The method for improving the prediction precision of the east Pacific squid fishery based on the middle-layer hydrological characteristics and the ship position state is characterized in that the precise identification of the squid fishery is repeatedly constructed by adopting the middle-layer water temperature and the isotherm dense area position thereof, ocean current vortex, cold and warm vortex and the ship position state characteristics, and the improvement of the prediction precision of the fishery is realized by constructing a method for indicating a central fishery by real-time and predicted hydrological and ship position data, and comprises the following steps:
(1) preliminarily determining the positions of the east Pacific squid fishery by adopting the forecasted middle-layer water temperature and the isothermal line dense area thereof, further reducing the range of the fishery by combining the water temperature contour line dense area around the ocean current vortex, and brushing 5 central fisheries; the optimal water temperature of the 100 m water layer of the 1-month fishing site area is 14.5-15.5 ℃, and the optimal water temperature for 2 months is 14.4-14.8 ℃;
(2) the optimal water temperature difference of the 100-meter water layer in each month fishing field area is 1-2 ℃; the optimal water temperature of the water layer of 100 meters in each month is about 15 ℃;
(3) the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground in the 30-60 seas around the cold vortex and the upflow of the 100-meter water layer is higher; the probability of forming a squid center fishing ground at the periphery of the warm vortex is low;
(4) judging the ship position state by combining the ship position track data in the fishing season; the ship position mainly comprises fishing and sailing, the ship speed is 0.1-1 knots in the fishing period, and the ship speed is 4.5-8 knots in the sailing period; the concentrated distribution area of the central fishing ground of the squid can be roughly judged according to the ship position distribution, and the fishing ground which is better can be judged in advance by combining the real-time identification of the ship position state;
(5) the range and the number of the central fishing grounds of the squid can be preliminarily determined according to the hydrological space characteristics of the water temperature, the vortex and the rising ocean current of the middle layer in the steps, and the optimal central fishing ground can be screened out again by combining the distribution of the ship positions and the accurate identification of the state of the ship positions in real time, so that the forecasting precision of the fishing ground is effectively improved;
(6) by adopting the method for distinguishing the states of the hydrological features and the ship positions in real time based on the middle layer, the prediction precision of the squid fishery can be improved by 10-20%.
2. And (3) summarizing the change rule of the squid fishery in the step (1) by identifying real-time hydrological features and the state of the ship position and summarizing the production data after more than 3 months.
3. The water temperature of the middle layer in the step (1) is preferably 100 meters of water layer, and then 50 meters of water layer is referred.
4. And (2) predicting data of the fishing time period in the same day in the isotherm dense area and the ocean current vortex direction in the step (1), and predicting the fishing ground hydrological characteristic field of 1-3 days in the future.
5. And (4) forecasting data of the fishing time period of the day is adopted in the rising flow of the step (3), and a fishing ground hydrological characteristic field of 1-3 days in the future can be forecasted.
6. The fishing boat position and the boat position state in the step (4) are judged by adopting AIS or boat position monitoring platform data; the position state identification can be judged mainly by adopting a navigational speed threshold value method; the boat position mainly aims at fishing and sailing, generally fishing at night in local time and sailing to transfer or detect a fishing ground in the daytime.
7. The water temperature and ocean current in the step (5) are not suitable for adopting surface hydrological data, and the surface is affected by the mixed wind and wave, so that the environmental field of the water layer where the squids are located cannot be accurately expressed; 4-5 primarily selected fishing grounds are provided; and further optimizing the position of the fishing ground by combining the ship position state of the fishing ground so as to determine the optimal central fishing ground.
8. The perching water layer is a 50-150 m water layer.
9. The squid fishery forecasting precision in the step (6) can be further improved, short-term forecasting can be realized through hydrological characteristics of the next few days, and effective basis is provided for fishing boat production decision and fishing ground transfer.
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