JP6689396B2 - Weather forecasting device, weather forecasting method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The embodiment of the present invention relates to a weather forecasting device, a weather forecasting method, and a program.

  In recent years, heavy rainfall disasters have caused a great deal of damage due to river flooding and large-scale slope failures. It is said that such a disaster is caused by a linear precipitation zone staying at a certain point for a long time. Related to this, there is known a technique of observing rain clouds such as cumulonimbus clouds in the sky and deriving the precipitation intensity in the sky.

  However, it is difficult for the conventional technology to accurately predict the risk of a heavy rain disaster caused by the linear precipitation zone.

JP, 2014-1974, A

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a weather forecasting device, a weather forecasting method, and a program capable of accurately forecasting a risk due to a weather disaster.

The weather prediction device of the embodiment includes a calculation unit, a determination unit, a risk derivation unit, and a region derivation unit . The calculation unit calculates the wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device, based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device. . The determining unit determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky based on the wind direction at the first altitude and the wind direction at the second altitude calculated by the calculating unit . The risk deriving unit derives the risk of a disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the precipitation zone determined by the determining unit. The area deriving unit derives the target area of the precipitation zone in the observation space. Further, the determining unit determines the minimum altitude of the target region derived by the region deriving unit as the first altitude, and also determines the second altitude based on the minimum altitude and the maximum altitude of the target region.

The figure which shows an example of a structure of the weather prediction apparatus 100 in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the meteorological observation data 132. The flowchart which shows an example of a series of processes by the control part 110 in 1st Embodiment. It illustrates an example of dividing the observation space virtually mesh area M _i. The figure for demonstrating the method of extracting the mesh area M _i . The figure which shows an example of the feature information 136 for every precipitation zone. The figure which shows an example of the strike ST of a linear precipitation zone. The figure which shows the other example of the strike ST of a linear precipitation zone. The figure which shows the other example of the strike ST of a linear precipitation zone. The figure for demonstrating the method of scoring. The figure which shows an example of the screen displayed on a predetermined device. The flowchart which shows an example of a series of processes by the control part 110 in 2nd Embodiment. The figure which shows an example of a processing result.

  Hereinafter, a weather forecasting apparatus, a weather forecasting method, and a program according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the weather prediction device 100 according to the first embodiment. The weather prediction device 100 in the first embodiment determines the type of linear precipitation zone based on the weather observation data output from the weather radar device 200. The linear precipitation zone is a collection of precipitation clouds (for example, cumulonimbus) that have a linear shape, and often stagnates above the sky, causing meteorological disasters such as heavy rain, heavy snowfall, hail, and hail. . The weather prediction device 100 derives the risk of a weather disaster predicted to be caused by the precipitation zone according to the type of the linear precipitation zone.

  The weather radar device 200 includes, for example, a phased array antenna. The weather radar device 200 electronically varies the directivity angle by controlling the phase of a signal input to an array-shaped antenna element that constitutes a phased array antenna or a phase of a signal output by the antenna element. The weather radar device 200 transmits and receives radio waves while varying the antenna directional angle. For example, the weather radar device 200 varies the directivity angle in the elevation direction (vertical direction) within a certain angle range (for example, 90 degrees) by electrical phase control. Further, the weather radar device 200 mechanically changes the directivity angle in the azimuth direction (horizontal direction) by a drive mechanism (not shown). Further, the weather radar device 200 may change the directivity angle by electrical phase control in both the azimuth direction and the elevation direction.

  Further, the weather radar device 200 may include a parabolic antenna, a patch antenna, a pole antenna, a shunt feed antenna, a slot antenna, and the like, in addition to the above-mentioned phased array antenna. For example, in the case of including a parabolic antenna, the weather radar device 200 transmits and receives radio waves while mechanically changing the antenna directional angle by a driving mechanism (not shown).

  The weather radar device 200 converts the received radio wave into an electric signal, and performs signal processing such as demodulation, signal strength amplification, and frequency conversion. Then, the weather radar device 200 transmits the signal subjected to the signal processing (hereinafter referred to as a processed signal) to the weather prediction device 100 as weather observation data.

For example, the weather radar device 200 transmits the plurality of processed signals generated during a predetermined search cycle (for example, a 30-second cycle) to the weather prediction device 100 as one piece of weather observation data. The meteorological observation data is, for example, volume data in which physical quantities based on radio waves are associated with each mesh area M _i . The mesh area M _i is a three-dimensional space area in which a three-dimensional observation space irradiated with radio waves is divided by a predetermined width in each of the distance direction, the horizontal direction, and the vertical direction. Note that the observation target (observation space) of the weather radar device 200 is sufficiently far from the weather radar device 200, and in the following description, the mesh region M _i is a cube.

  Hereinafter, the configuration of the weather prediction device 100 will be described. The weather forecast device 100 includes a communication unit 102, a control unit 110, and a storage unit 130.

  The communication unit 102 communicates with the weather radar device 200 and the like via a network such as a WAN (Wide Area Network) and receives the weather observation data 132 from the weather radar device 200. The weather observation data 132 received by the communication unit 102 is stored in the storage unit 130.

  The control unit 110 includes, for example, a precipitation intensity calculation unit 111, a wind direction wind speed calculation unit 112, a precipitation zone type determination unit 113, a region derivation unit 114, a disaster risk derivation unit 115, and an output unit 116. Some or all of these components may be realized by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a program stored in the storage unit 130. Further, some or all of the components of the control unit 110 may be realized by hardware such as an LSI (Large Scale Integration), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), and an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array). It may be realized by the cooperation of software and hardware.

  The storage unit 130 may be realized by, for example, a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), an SD card, an MRAM (Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a register, or the like. The storage unit 130 stores a program executed by the processor of the control unit 110, and also stores meteorological observation data 132, analysis data 134 described later, feature information 136 for each precipitation zone, and the like.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the meteorological observation data 132. For example, the meteorological observation data 132 is data in which the radar reflection factor Z _i and the Doppler velocity D _i are associated with each other for each mesh region M _{i obtained} by virtually dividing an observation space including clouds in the sky.

The radar reflection factor Z _i is a parameter that varies according to the particle size of particles that reflect radio waves. The particles that reflect radio waves are, for example, particles that form clouds (hereinafter referred to as cloud particles). The cloud particles may include, for example, water drops or ice crystals. For example, the radar reflection factor Z _i is calculated based on the received power when the weather radar device 200 receives a radio wave and the distance from the weather radar device 200 to the cloud particle that has reflected the radio wave. The meteorological observation data 132 may be associated with the radar reflection intensity (= ₁₀ log ₁₀ Z _i ) instead of the radar reflection factor Z _i .

The Doppler velocity D _i is a parameter indicating the moving direction and moving velocity of cloud particles in the mesh region M _i , and is the transmission frequency when the weather radar device 200 transmits a radio wave and the reception frequency when the radio wave is received. It is calculated based on the difference between The Doppler velocity D _i is an index used when calculating the wind direction and the wind speed of each mesh region M _i . These indexes may be calculated as a result of signal processing in the weather radar device 200 or may be calculated in the weather prediction device 100.

The size of the mesh region M _i may be changed according to the time resolution and the spatial resolution of the weather radar device 200. Further, position coordinates of a Cartesian coordinate system having the position of the weather radar device 200 as an origin are associated with each mesh region M _i . For example, when the meteorological radar device 200 is installed on a high altitude or on a mountaintop, the position coordinates of the mesh area M _i may take a negative value in the altitude direction. The coordinate system is not limited to the orthogonal coordinate system, and may be a polar coordinate system or another coordinate system.

  Hereinafter, a series of processes performed by the control unit 110 will be described using a flowchart. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of a series of processes performed by the control unit 110 according to the first embodiment. The process of this flowchart may be repeated, for example, at a predetermined cycle.

First, the precipitation intensity calculation unit 111 waits until the communication unit 102 receives the weather observation data 132 for one search cycle from the weather radar device 200 (step S100), and then the weather for one search cycle. When the observation data 132 is received, the precipitation intensity R _i is calculated for each mesh region M _i of the meteorological observation data 132 (step S102).

For example, precipitation intensity calculation unit 111 calculates the precipitation intensity R _i by substituting the radar reflectivity factor Z _i for each mesh area M _i in Equation (1). The precipitation intensity R _i may be calculated by another method.

B and β in the above equation (1) are, for example, constants that are determined from observation values obtained by a rain gauge, and when the cloud particles are water droplets, B is set to about 200 and β is set to about 1.6. When is an ice crystal, B is set to about 500 to 2000 and β is set to about 2.0. It should be noted that the constants B and β may be set to the same value in all mesh regions M _i , or may be set to different values for each mesh region M _i .

Then, Wind calculating unit 112, based on the radar reflectivity factor _{Z i} and Doppler velocity _{D i} for each mesh area _{M i,} and calculates the wind direction and wind speed for each mesh area _{M i} (step S104). For example, the wind direction wind velocity calculation unit 112 uses a three-dimensional wind analysis method such as a VAD (Velocity Azimuth Display) method, a VVP (Volume Velocity Processing) method, a Gal-Chen method, or a Dual-Doppler method, and the mesh area M. _The wind direction and wind speed are calculated for each _i . Incidentally, Wind calculation unit 112 for the mesh area M _i which can not be calculated wind direction and wind speed, for example, may be used a representative value of wind direction and wind speed at other mesh area M _i. The representative value may be, for example, an average value, a median value, or another statistic.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a mesh region M _{i obtained} by virtually dividing the observation space. In the figure, the Z axis indicates the vertical direction, and the X axis and the Y axis indicate the orthogonal components included in the horizontal direction. In the illustrated example, only the cross section of a certain XZ plane is shown in the observation space (three-dimensional space). As an analysis result, the precipitation intensity R _i calculated by the precipitation intensity calculation unit 111 and the vector (arrow V _i ) indicating the wind direction wind speed calculated by the wind direction wind speed calculation unit 112 are associated with each mesh region M _i. To be In the figure, the precipitation intensity R _i is represented by R _xz in order to show the precipitation intensity R corresponding to the X axis and the Z axis. The direction of the vector indicated by the arrow V _i indicates the wind direction, and the magnitude of the vector indicates the wind speed. Information in which the precipitation intensity R _i and the vector arrow V _i indicating the wind direction and the wind speed are associated with each mesh region M _i that virtually represents the observation space is stored in the storage unit 130 as analysis data 134. Remembered.

Next, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 refers to the analysis data 134, and selects the mesh of the observation space at the predetermined altitude from the plurality of mesh areas M _i in which the precipitation intensity R _i is associated with the wind direction and the wind speed. The area M _i is extracted (step S106).

FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining a method of extracting the mesh area M _i . In the figure, the vertical axis represents the altitude (vertical direction Z), and the horizontal axis represents the distance in one of the horizontal directions XY. For example, precipitation band type determining section 113, the observation space, the mesh area M _i in the vicinity of cloud base height H _a and the lower region, and the mesh area M _i in the vicinity of cloud height H _c and an upper region, cloud base height H _a The mesh area M _i near the intermediate height H _b between the cloud top height H _c and the cloud top height H _c is determined as the middle layer area.

Cloud base height H _a is the altitude of the bottom of the observable cloud by radio, for example, is highly configurable approximately 0.5 [miles] point from the ground. The cloud top height H _c is the height of the cloud top that can be observed by radio waves, and is set to, for example, an altitude of about 10 [km] from the ground. In the example in the figure, clouds above the cloud top height H _c are also schematically displayed, but this is not observed. The intermediate height H _b is, for example, the height at the intermediate point between the height H _a and the height H _c . In the case of the numerical example described above, the intermediate altitude _Hb is set to an altitude of about 4.75 [km] from the ground. In this embodiment, it is assumed that each of these altitudes is determined in advance. Cloud base height H _a is an example of the "first high" intermediate altitude H _b is an example of the "second high" or "predetermined altitude."

Precipitation zone type determining section 113, from the analysis data 134, extracts the mesh area M _i corresponding to the lower region, and a mesh area M _i corresponding to the middle region. Then, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 refers to the precipitation zone-specific feature information 136, and extracts the wind direction and wind speed in the horizontal direction of the extracted lower layer region (hereinafter, referred to as lower layer wind) and the wind direction in the horizontal direction of the middle layer region. The type of the linear precipitation zone in the observation space is determined by comparing the wind speed (hereinafter, referred to as middle-level wind) (step S108). The lower wind and the middle wind may be representative wind directions and wind speeds of the region at the respective altitudes. The representative wind direction and wind speed of each region may be represented by, for example, one combined vector that combines the wind direction and wind velocity vectors V _i associated with each of all the mesh regions M _i included in that region.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the precipitation zone-specific characteristic information 136. In the present embodiment, the linear precipitation zones to be discriminated are a back-building linear precipitation zone (B type in the figure), a back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type in the figure), and a squall line type linear zone. It is a precipitation zone (S type in the figure). The types of these linear precipitation zones are examples, and some of them may be replaced by other types, or other types may be added to these types.

  In general, the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) has the same direction of the lower wind and the middle wind direction, and the back and side building linear precipitation zone (BS type) has the same direction as the lower wind direction. It is known that the direction of the lower wind and the direction of the middle wind are opposite to each other in the squall line type linear precipitation zone (S type).

  Therefore, for example, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines that the wind directions of the lower layer wind and the middle layer wind are “in the same direction” when the angle difference between the wind directions (vectors) of the lower layer wind and the middle layer wind is within ± 45 °. However, the linear precipitation zone in the observation space is determined to be the "back-building linear precipitation zone (B type)". Further, for example, if the angle difference between the wind directions (vectors) of the lower wind and the middle wind is within the range of ± 45 ° to 135 °, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines that the wind directions of the lower wind and the middle wind are “orthogonal”. It is determined to be “direction”, and the linear precipitation zone in the observation space is determined to be the “back and side building linear precipitation zone (BS type)”. Further, for example, if the angle difference between the wind directions (vectors) of the lower wind and the middle wind is within the range of ± 135 ° to 180 °, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines that the wind directions of the lower wind and the middle wind are “opposite”. It is determined to be “direction”, and the linear precipitation zone in the observation space is determined to be a “squall line linear precipitation zone (S type)”.

  The strike ST of the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) is in the same direction as the direction of the middle wind in the precipitation zone, and the strike ST of the back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type) is It is known that the direction of the middle-level wind in the precipitation zone is almost the same, and the strike ST of the squall line type linear precipitation zone (S type) is a direction orthogonal to the direction of the middle-level wind in the precipitation zone. There is.

  For example, instead of determining the type of the linear precipitation zone by comparing the lower layer wind and the middle layer wind, the precipitation zone type determining unit 113, and the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone of which the type is undetermined, The type of the linear precipitation zone may be determined by comparing the wind direction of the middle layer wind of the linear precipitation zone.

FIG. 7: is a figure which shows an example of the strike ST of a linear precipitation zone. The arrow V _{a in the} figure represents the wind direction of the lower layer wind, and the arrow V _b represents the wind direction of the middle layer wind. In the illustrated example, the wind direction V _{a of the} lower layer wind and the wind direction V _{b of the} middle layer wind are in the same direction, and the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is the same direction as the wind direction V _{b of the} middle layer wind. For example, when the angle difference between the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the wind direction V _b of the middle-level wind is within ± 45 °, the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the wind direction V _{b of the} middle-level wind are “in the same direction”. May be considered. When the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the wind direction V _{b of the} middle-level wind are “in the same direction”, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 sets the type of the linear precipitation zone to “back building linear precipitation zone (type B ) ”.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing another example of the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone. In the illustrated example, a direction in which the wind V _a and direction V _b of the middle air level wind are orthogonal to each other, and the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone, wind direction V _b in the same direction as the middle air (substantially the same direction) Is. In this case, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines the type of the linear precipitation zone to be "back and side building linear precipitation zone (BS type)".

FIG. 9: is a figure which shows the other example of the strike ST of a linear precipitation zone. In the illustrated example, the wind direction V _{a of the} lower layer wind is opposite to the wind direction V _{b of the} middle layer wind, and the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is orthogonal to the wind direction V _{b of the} middle layer wind. For example, when the angle difference between the wind direction V _b of strike ST and middle style linear precipitation zone is in the range of 135 ° from plus or minus 45 °, the wind direction V _b of strike ST and middle style linear precipitation zone " May be considered to be "orthogonal". When the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is a direction orthogonal to the wind direction V _{b of the} middle-level wind, the precipitation zone type determining unit 113 sets the type of the linear precipitation zone to “squall line linear precipitation zone (S type)”. ".

  The precipitation zone type determination unit 113 also determines the type of the linear precipitation zone based on both the comparison result of the wind directions of the lower and middle winds, and the comparison result of the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the wind direction of the middle wind. May be determined. For example, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines the type of linear precipitation zone for each variation of the combination of the wind direction of the lower layer wind and the middle layer wind, and for each variation of the combination of the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the wind direction of the intermediate layer wind. A score is added or multiplied to each of the three candidates, and the candidate having the largest total of the added or multiplied scores is determined as the type of the linear precipitation zone of interest.

FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining a scoring method. For example, when the wind direction of the lower layer wind is “same direction” as the wind direction of the middle layer wind, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 has the highest score S _B of the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type), and the back and side. Building type linear precipitation band higher following the score S _BS score S _B of (BS type) may be determined as the score S _S squall line type linear precipitation zone (S-type) is minimized. In the illustrated example, a score of (0.6, 0.3, 0.1) is added to or multiplied to each of the three candidates (B type, BS type, S type) of the linear precipitation zone type. become.

Further, for example, when the wind direction of the lower layer wind is the “orthogonal direction” to the wind direction of the middle layer wind, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 has the highest score S _BS , and the score S _B and the score S _S are next to the score S _BS . It may be decided to be higher. In the illustrated example, adding or multiplying a score of (0.2, 0.6, 0.2) to each of the three candidates (type B, type BS, type S) of the type of linear precipitation zone. become.

Further, for example, when the wind direction of the lower layer wind is the “opposite direction” to the wind direction of the middle layer wind, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 has the highest score S _S , the score S _BS is the second highest after the score S _S , and the score S _S is the highest. It may be determined that S _B is the smallest. In the illustrated example, adding or multiplying a score of (0.1, 0.3, 0.6) to each of the three candidates (type B, type BS, type S) of the type of linear precipitation zone. become.

Further, for example, when the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is “in the same direction” as the wind direction of the middle-level wind, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 has the highest score S _B and the highest score S _BS , and the lowest score S _S. May be determined to be In the illustrated example, adding or multiplying a score of (0.4, 0.4, 0.2) to each of the three candidates for the type of linear precipitation zone (B type, BS type, S type) become.

Further, for example, when the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is the “orthogonal direction” with respect to the wind direction of the middle-level wind, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 has the highest score S _S , and the smallest score S _B and score S _BS. May be determined to be In the illustrated example, adding or multiplying a score such as (0.2, 0.2, 0.6) to each of the three candidates (B type, BS type, S type) of the type of linear precipitation zone become.

In this way, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 assigns a score to the linear precipitation zone type candidate for each case, and compares the candidate with the largest score with other scores, Determined as the type of linear precipitation zone. For example, when the wind direction of the lower layer wind is “same direction” as the wind direction of the middle layer wind and the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone is “orthogonal direction” to the wind direction of the middle layer wind, when the score is calculated by the addition method, The score S _{B of the} back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) is 0.8, the score S _{BS of} the back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type) is 0.5, and the squall line type linear precipitation The score S _S of the belt (S type) is 0.7. In this case, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines the type of the linear precipitation zone as the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type).

  Further, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 may obtain a vertical shear as a representative wind direction and wind speed in the lower layer region and the middle layer region, and may determine the type of the linear precipitation zone using this vertical shear. The vertical shear is represented by a value obtained by dividing the magnitude of the difference between the vectors indicating the wind velocities of the lower and middle layers by the height difference between the lower and middle layers.

  In addition, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 outputs data from a numerical weather prediction model, data output from a ground meteorological observation device (for example, a wind anemometer on the ground), a remote sensing meteorological instrument (for example, a flying object such as a balloon). The type of linear precipitation zone may be determined in consideration of the data output from the provided radiosonde. In this case, the communication unit 102 may communicate with each device and acquire output data and the like.

Then, the area deriving unit 114 refers to the precipitation intensity _{R i} of each mesh area _{M i,} cloud base altitude _{H a} and cloud height _H precipitation intensity _{R i} is equal to or larger than the threshold of a mesh area _{M i} between the _c The specified target area is obtained by connecting the specified mesh areas M _i to each other (step S110). The threshold value of the precipitation intensity R _i is set to, for example, the precipitation intensity value when the linear precipitation zone was observed in the past. As a result, the target area is derived as an area including the linear precipitation zone (precipitation cloud).

  Next, the disaster risk deriving unit 115, for each target area derived by the area deriving unit 114, according to the type of the linear precipitation zone determined by the precipitation zone type determining unit 113, the disaster caused by the linear precipitation zone. The risk is derived (step S112).

For example, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 determines the easiness of stagnation (degree of stagnation) of the linear precipitation zone included in the target area, and the precipitation intensity R _i of the mesh area M _i included in the target area (for example, average value). The risk of disaster due to the linear precipitation zone is derived based on the typical precipitation intensity R _{i of} For example, as shown in the characteristic information 136 for each precipitation zone, the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) and the back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type) are the squall line-type linear precipitation zone (S-type). ) Is more likely to stagnate than that of the above), which causes precipitation and the like at the same point for a long time, and as a result, the disaster tends to be more severe. That is, the back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) and the back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type) have a higher risk of a meteorological disaster than the squall line type linear precipitation zone (S type). Can be determined. The disaster risk deriving unit 115 replaces the easiness of stagnation in each linear precipitation zone with an index value (quantitative value) called a risk level, and the product of this risk level and the precipitation intensity R _i is used to determine the degree of risk from a weather disaster. Is derived as a risk value representing

Further, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 assigns a weight to the risk value to be derived based on the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone and the ground area where the linear precipitation zone is stagnant (hereinafter referred to as stagnant area). Good. For example, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 calculates the product of the derived risk and the precipitation intensity R _i when it is estimated from the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone that the linear precipitation zone moves to the sea or the mountainous area. The risk value may be lowered by giving a weight that reduces the risk value. On the other hand, the disaster risk deriving unit 115, when it is estimated from the strike ST of the linear precipitation zone that the linear precipitation zone moves to an urban area or an area where sediment disasters frequently occur, the derived risk and precipitation intensity R _The risk value may be increased by giving a weight that increases the product of _i . That is, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 may give a weight to the risk value to be derived based on the future stagnation area of the linear precipitation zone. Further, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 may give a weight to the derived risk value based on the stagnant area where the linear precipitation zone is currently located.

Further, the disaster risk deriving unit 115, in addition to the degree of danger and the precipitation intensity R _i for each type of linear precipitation zone, for example, the output data of a numerical weather prediction model, the data output from a ground-based weather observation device, and remote sensing. The risk value may be derived by combining meteorological information such as data output from a meteorological instrument, land use data, geological data, topographic data, river basin data, and other surface information. When using these various data, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 may digitize the data and information and derive a risk value by addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, or may calculate a risk value using a probability prediction model or a learning model. You may derive it.

  Next, the output unit 116 uses the communication unit 102 to output information based on the derivation result of the risk value of the weather disaster derived by the disaster risk derivation unit 115 to a predetermined device (step S114). The predetermined device may be, for example, a terminal device used by a general user, or a server device that provides an information providing service such as a weather forecast.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a screen displayed on the predetermined device. As in the illustrated example, the target area (R1 to R3 in the drawing) is displayed on the screen of the predetermined device in an overlapping manner with the map. The display mode of each target area may be changed according to the risk value. For example, the precipitation zone included in the target area R1 is a back-building linear precipitation zone (B type) or a back-and-side building linear precipitation zone (BS type), and the precipitation zones included in the target areas R2 and R3. Is a squall line type linear precipitation zone (S type), as shown in the figure, the target region R1 is expressed in a display mode corresponding to high risk, and the target regions R2 and R3 correspond to low risk. It may be expressed in a display manner.

  According to the first embodiment described above, based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the meteorological radar device 200, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 that determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky, and the precipitation zone type determination unit 113. By providing the disaster risk deriving unit 115 for deriving the risk of disaster due to the linear precipitation band according to the type of precipitation band determined by the above, it is possible to accurately predict the risk due to a weather disaster.

  Further, according to the first embodiment described above, for example, when the phased array antenna is applied to the weather radar device 200, it is possible to use meteorological observation data that is frequently observed without gaps. This makes it possible to analyze the wind direction and wind speed distribution at that point in a continuous manner in three directions in a short period. By combining this wind direction and wind speed data with rainfall intensity data, the linear precipitation zone Features can be determined with high frequency and high accuracy. As a result, the risk of a weather disaster such as a heavy rain, which can cause a great disaster, can be notified or provided with high accuracy and speed. For example, when notifying a terminal device used by a general user of a risk result of a weather disaster, it is possible to call a general citizen's attention and evacuation.

(Second embodiment)
The second embodiment will be described below. The second embodiment differs from the first embodiment described above in that the lower layer region and the middle layer region are determined according to the shape of the target region. Hereinafter, the differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described, and description of the points common to the first embodiment will be omitted. In the description of the second embodiment, the same parts as those in the first embodiment will be described with the same reference numerals.

  FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of a series of processes performed by the control unit 110 according to the second embodiment. The process of this flowchart is repeatedly performed, for example, in a predetermined cycle.

  First, the precipitation intensity calculation unit 111 waits until the communication unit 102 receives the weather observation data 132 for one search cycle from the weather radar device 200 (step S200).

When the meteorological observation data 132 for one search cycle is received, the precipitation intensity calculation unit 111 calculates the precipitation intensity R _i , the wind direction, and the wind speed for each mesh region M _i of the meteorological observation data 132 (step S202). .

Then, the area deriving unit 114 refers to the precipitation intensity R _i of each mesh area M _i, precipitation intensity R _i is to identify the threshold above the mesh area M _i, and combine this particular mesh area M _i The target area is derived (step S204).

Next, precipitation band type determining section 113, a high degree maximum of the derived target region by the region deriving unit 114 determines the cloud height _{H c} (step S206).

Next, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines whether or not the minimum altitude of the target area is equal to or lower than a predetermined altitude (for example, about 0.5 [km]) (step S208), and the minimum altitude of the target area is If the predetermined height or less, determines the predetermined altitude cloud base height H _a (step S210), if the smallest target area altitude is greater than a predetermined altitude, the minimum altitude of the target region in the cloud base height H _a It is determined (step S212). Incidentally, the cloud base is highly H _a is measured by Shirometa not shown (height of clouds meter), when the communication unit 102 acquires the measurement result of cloud base height H _a from this Shirometa is precipitation zone type determining section 113 , S210 may be omitted.

Next, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 determines the intermediate altitude _Hb (step S214). For example, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 may determine the average altitude of the cloud top altitude H _c and the cloud base altitude H _a as the intermediate altitude H _b . Further, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 obtains the volume of the entire target region based on the number and volume of the mesh regions M _i included in the target region, and determines the altitude at the center of this volume as the intermediate altitude H _b. Good. Further, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 estimates the center of gravity of the target region by estimating the mass of each mesh region M _i from the precipitation intensity R _i of each mesh region M _i included in the target region, and determines the altitude of this center of gravity as an intermediate value. It may be determined as the altitude H _b .

Next, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 refers to the analysis data 134 and corresponds to the lower layer region and the middle layer region from among the plurality of mesh regions M _i in which the precipitation intensity R _i is associated with the wind direction and the wind speed. The mesh area M _i to be extracted is extracted (step S216).

  Next, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 refers to the precipitation zone-specific feature information 136 and compares the lower winds of the extracted lower region with the middle winds of the middle region to obtain a linear precipitation zone in the observation space. The type is determined (step S218).

  Next, the disaster risk deriving unit 115 derives the risk value of the disaster due to the linear precipitation band according to the type of the linear precipitation band determined by the precipitation band type determining unit 113 for each target area (step S220). ).

  Next, the output unit 116 uses the communication unit 102 to output information based on the derivation result of the disaster risk value derived by the disaster risk derivation unit 115 to a predetermined device (step S222). This completes the processing of this flowchart.

The precipitation zone type determination unit 113 stores the processing results of S206 to S212 (determined cloud base height H _a , cloud top height H _c , intermediate altitude H _b ) in the storage unit 130 in the processing of the above-described flowchart. Alternatively, the past processing result may be reflected in the processing of S206 to S212 after the next time.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the processing result. As shown, the rain zone type determining section 113, for example, for each type of linear precipitation zone, cloud base height _{H a} determined in the processing of S212 from S206, cloud height _{H c,} the processing result intermediate altitude _{H b} Is stored in the storage unit 130. Then, when the meteorological observation data is newly received as the process of S200 by the machine learning of the past processing result, the precipitation zone type determining unit 113 reflects the learning result to reflect the cloud base altitude H _a and the cloud top. The altitude H _c and the intermediate altitude H _b are determined. For example, the administrator who manages the weather prediction device 100 determines whether the type of the linear precipitation zone determined by the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 is correct or incorrect during a certain observation period. In response to this, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 treats each altitude of the linear precipitation zone determined to be “correct” as positive example data, and also treats each altitude of the linear precipitation zone determined to be “erroneous”. The cloud base height H _a , the cloud top height H _c , and the intermediate height H _b are learned by treating them as negative example data.

Further, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 may learn the cloud base height H _a , the cloud top height H _c , and the intermediate height H _b by applying a probabilistic inference model such as a Bayesian network to the past processing results. The precipitation zone type determining section 113, for each stagnation regions linear precipitation zone stagnates, cloud base height _{H a} determined in the processing of S212 from S206, cloud height _{H c,} intermediate altitude _{H b} a processing result as a storage By storing in the unit 130, the cloud base height H _a , the cloud top height H _c , and the intermediate height H _b may be learned according to the tendency of the precipitation zone occurring in each stagnant area. Such process, can be eliminated as departing from the altitude trend results of past precipitation zone (cloud base height H _a, cloud height H _c, and intermediate processing results of the altitude H _b), more precisely Highly predictable weather.

  According to the second embodiment described above, similarly to the above-described first embodiment, it is possible to accurately predict the risk of a weather disaster.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the meteorological radar device 200, the precipitation zone type determination unit 113 that determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky, and the precipitation zone type determination unit 113. By providing the disaster risk deriving unit 115 for deriving the risk of disaster due to the linear precipitation band according to the type of precipitation band determined by the above, it is possible to accurately predict the risk due to a weather disaster.

The above embodiment can be expressed as follows.
Storage for storing information,
A processor that executes a program stored in the storage;
The processor, by executing the program,
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, determine the type of precipitation zone in the sky,
A meteorological prediction device configured to derive a risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the determined type of the precipitation zone.

  Although some embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof as well as included in the scope and the gist of the invention.

Claims (15)

A calculator that calculates the wind direction at the first altitude and the wind direction at the second altitude higher than the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device. When,
A determination unit that determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky based on the wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude calculated by the calculation unit;
A risk derivation unit that derives a risk of a disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the precipitation zone determined by the determination unit,
In the observation space, and an area deriving unit that derives a target region of the precipitation zone,
The determining unit determines the minimum altitude of the target region derived by the region deriving unit as the first altitude, and determines the second altitude based on the minimum altitude and the maximum altitude of the target region.
Weather forecasting device. A calculator that calculates the wind direction at the first altitude and the wind direction at the second altitude higher than the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device. When,
A determination unit that determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky based on the wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude calculated by the calculation unit;
A risk derivation unit that derives a risk of a disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the precipitation zone determined by the determination unit,
In the observation space, and an area deriving unit that derives a target region of the precipitation zone,
The determining unit determines the minimum altitude of the target region derived by the region deriving unit as the first altitude, and determines the volume center altitude of the target region as the second altitude.
Weather forecasting device. A calculator that calculates the wind direction at the first altitude and the wind direction at the second altitude higher than the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device. When,
A determination unit that determines the type of precipitation zone in the sky based on the wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude calculated by the calculation unit;
A risk derivation unit that derives a risk of a disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the precipitation zone determined by the determination unit,
In the observation space, and an area deriving unit that derives a target region of the precipitation zone,
The determining unit determines the minimum altitude of the target region derived by the region deriving unit as the first altitude and also determines the altitude of the center of gravity of the target region as the second altitude.
Weather forecasting device. The determination unit is
Determining the type of the precipitation zone by comparing at least the wind direction of the second altitude with the strike of the precipitation zone,
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 3. The determination unit is
By determining the wind direction of a predetermined altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the strike of the precipitation zone, the type of the precipitation zone is determined.
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 4. The determining unit determines the type of the precipitation zone by machine learning the first altitude and the second altitude that have been determined in the past.
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 5. The risk derivation unit derives a risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone based on the degree of stagnation and precipitation intensity of the precipitation zone whose type has been determined by the determination unit,
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 6. The risk derivation unit derives a risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone based on the strike of the precipitation zone whose type has been determined by the determination unit,
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 7. The risk derivation unit derives a risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone based on a ground area in which the precipitation zone whose type is determined by the determination unit is stagnant,
The weather forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 8. Computer
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, determine the type of precipitation zone in the sky,
Derivation of the risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the determined precipitation zone,
In the observation space, derive the target region of the precipitation zone,
The minimum altitude of the derived target area is determined as the first altitude, and the second altitude is determined based on the minimum altitude and the maximum altitude of the target area.
Weather forecast method. Computer
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, determine the type of precipitation zone in the sky,
Derivation of the risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the determined precipitation zone,
In the observation space, derive the target region of the precipitation zone,
The minimum height of the derived target area is determined to be the first altitude, and the volume-centered height of the target area is determined to be the second altitude.
Weather forecast method. Computer
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, determine the type of precipitation zone in the sky,
Derivation of the risk of disaster due to the precipitation zone according to the type of the determined precipitation zone,
In the observation space, derive the target region of the precipitation zone,
The minimum altitude of the derived target area is determined to be the first altitude, and the altitude of the center of gravity of the target area is determined to be the second altitude.
Weather forecast method. On the computer,
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, the type of the precipitation zone in the sky is determined,
Depending on the type of the determined precipitation zone, the risk of disaster caused by the precipitation zone is derived,
In the observation space, to derive a target region of the precipitation zone,
The derived minimum altitude of the target area is determined to be the first altitude, and the second altitude is determined based on the minimum altitude and the maximum altitude of the target area.
program. On the computer,
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, the type of the precipitation zone in the sky is determined,
Depending on the type of the determined precipitation zone, the risk of disaster caused by the precipitation zone is derived,
In the observation space, the target area of the precipitation zone is derived,
The minimum altitude of the derived target region is determined to be the first altitude, and the altitude of the volume center of the target region is determined to be the second altitude.
program. On the computer,
Based on the meteorological observation data obtained by the radar device, the wind direction of the first altitude included in the observation space observed by the radar device and the wind direction of the second altitude higher than the first altitude are calculated,
Based on the calculated wind direction of the first altitude and the wind direction of the second altitude, the type of the precipitation zone in the sky is determined,
Depending on the type of the determined precipitation zone, the risk of disaster caused by the precipitation zone is derived,
In the observation space, the target area of the precipitation zone is derived,
The minimum altitude of the derived target region is determined to be the first altitude, and the altitude of the center of gravity of the target region is determined to be the second altitude.
program.

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