CN115759866A - Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及流域水能资源评价领域，具体涉及一种水电开发程度综合评价方法。The invention relates to the field of evaluation of hydropower resources in river basins, in particular to a method for comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree.
背景技术Background technique
水电工程从建设到运行，会通过改变河流和陆地生态系统结构及功能，引发各种生态环境效应。现有技术中，围绕流域水电开发的研究主要集中在水电开发模式探讨、水电开发对水资源开发的影响、阶梯开发的累积影响等。然而，现有技术中还缺少在流域尺度下对水电开发程度的综合评价手段，这对于流域生态环境、流域的合理规划与管理、以及水电开发引致的累积性环境等研究都带来了一定的技术难题。From construction to operation, hydropower projects will cause various ecological and environmental effects by changing the structure and function of river and terrestrial ecosystems. In the prior art, researches on hydropower development in river basins mainly focus on the exploration of hydropower development models, the impact of hydropower development on water resource development, and the cumulative impact of step-by-step development. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive evaluation methods for the degree of hydropower development at the watershed scale in the existing technology, which has brought certain challenges to the research on the ecological environment of the watershed, the rational planning and management of the watershed, and the cumulative environment caused by hydropower development. technical challenge.
具体的，对于水电开发产生的相关效应评估，大都采用流域径流量、生境格局、生源物质、植被指数、水生物种群结构等生境、生物相关指数来完成，其主要存在以下弊端：(1)基于这些指标的评估结果，通常难以剔除气候变化、农业活动或城镇化等因素的影响；(2)指标中有大量点状采样数据，难以体现空间异质性；且获取难度相对较大，也提升了大区域尺度下的定量建模难度；(3)对上游和下游、支流和干流的空间关联较弱。Specifically, for the evaluation of the related effects of hydropower development, most of them use habitat and biological related indexes such as watershed runoff, habitat pattern, biomass, vegetation index, aquatic organism population structure, etc., which mainly have the following disadvantages: (1) based on The evaluation results of these indicators are usually difficult to eliminate the influence of factors such as climate change, agricultural activities, or urbanization; (2) There are a large number of point-like sampling data in the indicators, which makes it difficult to reflect spatial heterogeneity; and the acquisition is relatively difficult, which also improves (3) The spatial correlation between upstream and downstream, tributaries and main streams is weak.
综上，现有的评估方法对于管理流域水电工程的建设、降低水电开发影响等方面较为局限，亟需建立一种易操作且科学合理的综合性水电开发程度综合评价方法。In summary, the existing evaluation methods are limited in terms of managing the construction of hydropower projects in the basin and reducing the impact of hydropower development. It is urgent to establish an easy-to-operate, scientific and reasonable comprehensive evaluation method for the degree of hydropower development.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明提供一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，以解决现有技术中对于水电开发的评估局限性，实现在流域尺度下进行易操作且科学合理的综合性水电开发程度评价，进而为未来的开发方案制定提供更为科学的辅助信息和决策依据的目的。The present invention provides a method for comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree to solve the limitations of the evaluation of hydropower development in the prior art, to realize an easy-to-operate, scientific and reasonable comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree at the river basin scale, and to further provide a basis for future development. The purpose of program development is to provide more scientific auxiliary information and decision-making basis.
本发明通过下述技术方案实现：The present invention realizes through following technical scheme:
一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，包括：A method for comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree, comprising:
S1、根据指定区域内的流域划分情况，得到若干一级子流域；结合人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响，将所述一级子流域划分为若干二级子流域；S1. According to the division of watersheds in the designated area, several first-level sub-basins are obtained; combined with the truncation effects of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology, the first-level sub-basins are divided into several second-level sub-basins;
S2、确定各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；S2. Determine the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-basin;
S3、对各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断：若其中任一指标具有聚集性，进入S4；若所有指标均不具有聚集性，进入S5；S3. Judgment on the aggregation of the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-watershed: if any of the indicators is aggregated, enter S4; if none of the indicators are aggregated, enter S5;
S4、对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标做聚集性分布评价；S4. Make aggregated distribution evaluation on the aggregated hydropower development degree indicators;
S5、基于聚集性判断或聚集性分布评价结果，做水电开发程度综合评价。S5. Based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation results, make a comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development.
针对现有技术中对于水电开发的评估局限性，本发明提出一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，本方法首先根据指定区域内的流域划分情况，得到若干一级子流域，其中指定区域是指具体的目标研究区域，流域划分情况可根据现有的流域划分相关标准得到。然后，结合人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响，在一级子流域的基础上进一步进行细化分区，将各一级子流域划分为若干二级子流域；其中人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响，可以是人类活动和自然生态条件可能对流域的水文特征带来影响的任意参数，本领域技术人员在考虑人类活动和自然生态条件的差异性的前提下，所采用的任意划分二级子流域的方式均可适用，在此不做具体限定。之后，确定水电开发程度指标，并计算各二级子流域所对应的各指标值；其中，水电开发程度指标以能够反映水电站技术性、经济性的相关参数为宜，在此不做具体限定。然后，对各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断：若所有的指标均不具有聚集性，则直接基于聚集性判断结果进行水电开发程度综合评价；若至少有一个指标具有聚集性，则对所有具有聚集性的指标进行聚集性分布评价，再基于聚集性分布评价结果进行水电开发程度综合评价。Aiming at the limitations of the evaluation of hydropower development in the prior art, the present invention proposes a comprehensive evaluation method for the degree of hydropower development. This method first obtains several first-level sub-basins according to the division of watersheds in designated areas, where designated areas refer to specific The target research area and the watershed division can be obtained according to the existing standards for watershed division. Then, combined with the truncated impact of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology, further subdivisions are carried out on the basis of the first-level sub-basins, and each first-level sub-basin is divided into several second-level sub-basins; among them, human activities and natural ecological conditions The truncation effect on hydrology can be any parameter that human activities and natural ecological conditions may have an impact on the hydrological characteristics of the watershed. Those skilled in the art consider the difference between human activities and natural ecological conditions. The methods of dividing the secondary sub-basins are all applicable and are not specifically limited here. After that, determine the index of hydropower development degree, and calculate the corresponding index values of each second-level sub-watershed; among them, the index of hydropower development degree should be the relevant parameters that can reflect the technical and economical aspects of hydropower stations, and no specific limitation is made here. Then, the aggregation judgment is made on the indicators of the degree of hydropower development in each second-level sub-basin: if all the indicators are not aggregated, then the comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development is directly based on the results of the aggregation judgment; if at least one indicator is aggregated , then evaluate the aggregated distribution of all aggregated indicators, and then conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development based on the aggregated distribution evaluation results.
需要说明的是，由于聚集性分布评价是基于聚集性判断的结果而进行的，因此前述基于聚集性分布评价结果进行水电开发程度的评价的过程，实质上同样也考虑了聚集性判断的结果。It should be noted that since the evaluation of aggregation distribution is based on the results of aggregation judgments, the above-mentioned process of evaluating the degree of hydropower development based on the results of aggregation distribution evaluations essentially also takes into account the results of aggregation judgments.
本方法克服了现有技术的评价过程难以剔除气候变化、农业活动或城镇化等因素的缺陷，以多个水电开发程度指标作为评价依据，避免了数据采样所导致的不确定性，评价结果能够体现流域的空间异质性；并且，本方法包含了上游和下游、支流和干流的空间关联关系，可操作性强，评价结果科学，不仅可用于水电开发对流域生态安全状况影响的评估，也可以用于流域尺度下的水电开发水平的综合评价，可为水库群的累积环境影响评价、流域水电优化布局、水电站改造、未来的水电工程建设和运行、流域的生态环境保护措施制定等提供科学的辅助信息和决策依据。This method overcomes the defect that it is difficult to eliminate factors such as climate change, agricultural activities or urbanization in the evaluation process of the existing technology, and uses multiple indicators of hydropower development degree as the evaluation basis, avoiding the uncertainty caused by data sampling, and the evaluation results can be It reflects the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed; moreover, this method includes the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream, tributaries and main streams, and has strong operability and scientific evaluation results. It can be used for the comprehensive evaluation of the level of hydropower development at the basin scale, and can provide scientific information for the cumulative environmental impact assessment of reservoir groups, the optimal layout of hydropower in the basin, the reconstruction of hydropower stations, the construction and operation of future hydropower projects, and the formulation of ecological and environmental protection measures for the basin. Auxiliary information and decision-making basis.
进一步的，所述人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响包括：行政区划、大坝位置、地形地貌、土壤侵蚀强度、土地利用率、地质灾害点分布、水环境数据中的任意一种或多种。其中，行政区划、大坝位置、土地利用率等指标为考虑人类活动对水文的截断影响；地形地貌、土壤侵蚀强度、地质灾害点分布、水环境数据等指标为自然生态条件对水文的截断影响。Further, the truncated impact of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology includes: any one or Various. Among them, indicators such as administrative divisions, dam locations, and land use ratios consider the truncated impact of human activities on hydrology; indicators such as topography, soil erosion intensity, distribution of geological hazard points, and water environment data reflect the truncated impact of natural ecological conditions on hydrology. .
进一步的，所述水电开发程度指标包括：水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量、水电开发密度和水电开发强度。Further, the index of hydropower development degree includes: the total number of hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of hydropower stations, the density of hydropower development and the intensity of hydropower development.
传统的水能资源量化指标主要包括理论蕴藏量、技术可开发量、经济可开发量等，水电开发程度主要基于装机容量和年发电量计算。如果单纯的依据装机容量计算水电开发程度，虽然具有简便易行的优点，但是却很难准确反映水电开发的实际情况；依据年发电量计算水电开发程度能较科学地反映出水能的实际利用率，但年发电量数据具有不易获取、易受河流水量变化影响等弊端，因此实际可操作性较低。为了克服这些缺陷，本方案以水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量、水电开发密度和水电开发强度共四个参数作为水电开发程度指标，在提高评价方法可操作性和数据易获取性的前提下，有利于更加综合的量化流域的水电开发程度，使评价结果具有更强的综合性和科学性。Traditional quantitative indicators of hydropower resources mainly include theoretical reserves, technologically exploitable quantities, and economically exploitable quantities, etc. The degree of hydropower development is mainly calculated based on installed capacity and annual power generation. Calculating the degree of hydropower development purely based on the installed capacity has the advantage of being simple and easy to implement, but it is difficult to accurately reflect the actual situation of hydropower development; calculating the degree of hydropower development based on the annual power generation can more scientifically reflect the actual utilization rate of hydropower , but the annual power generation data is not easy to obtain and is easily affected by changes in river water volume, so the actual operability is low. In order to overcome these deficiencies, this scheme uses the total number of hydropower stations, total installed capacity of hydropower stations, hydropower development density, and hydropower development intensity as indicators of hydropower development degree. On the premise of improving the operability of the evaluation method and the ease of data acquisition, It is conducive to a more comprehensive quantification of the degree of hydropower development in the river basin, making the evaluation results more comprehensive and scientific.
进一步的，所述水电开发密度通过如下公式计算：
所述水电开发强度通过如下公式计算：
进一步的，对各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断的方法包括：Furthermore, the methods for judging the aggregation of the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-basin include:
S301、采用空间自相关分析法计算各水电开发程度指标的莫兰指数，得到全局莫兰指数I、标准差倍数Z；S301, using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method to calculate the Moran index of each hydropower development degree index, and obtain the global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z;
S302、若I＞0，且Z>2.58，认为该水电开发程度指标具有聚集性；否则，认为该水电开发程度指标不具有聚集性。S302. If I>0 and Z>2.58, it is considered that the hydropower development degree index has aggregation; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered not to have aggregation.
本方案采用全局莫兰指数来表征不同二级子流域在各水电开发程度指标下的聚集性。当I＞0，表示数据呈现空间正相关，即子流域水电开发程度具有空间聚集性。反之，当I<0，表示数据呈现空间负相关，不具有聚集性。此外，当标准差倍数Z>2.58时，可以反映在99％置信度下拒绝零假设，即子流域水电开发程度的空间模式极大可能是聚集分布。因此，本方案在同时满足I＞0，Z>2.58两个条件时，才认定为具有聚集性。This scheme uses the global Moran index to characterize the aggregation of different secondary sub-watersheds under each hydropower development degree index. When I>0, it means that the data show positive spatial correlation, that is, the degree of hydropower development in the sub-basin has spatial aggregation. Conversely, when I<0, it means that the data presents negative spatial correlation and is not clustered. In addition, when the standard deviation multiple Z>2.58, it can reflect that the null hypothesis is rejected at the 99% confidence level, that is, the spatial pattern of the hydropower development degree of the sub-basin is most likely to be an aggregate distribution. Therefore, this scheme can only be considered as agglomerative when the two conditions of I>0 and Z>2.58 are met at the same time.
进一步的，全局莫兰指数I、标准差倍数Z通过如下公式计算：Further, the global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formula:
其中，n为二级子流域数量；xi为第i个二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；xj为第j个二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；
若第i个二级子流域的和第j个二级子流域位于同一个一级子流域，且第i个二级子流域的和第j个二级子流域有上下游的邻接关系，则wi,j＝1；否则，wi,j＝0；If the i-th second-level sub-basin and the j-th second-level sub-basin are located in the same first-level sub-basin, and the i-th second-level sub-basin and the j-th second-level sub-basin have upstream and downstream adjacencies, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j =0;
本方案使用wi,j表示研究区域内二级子流域之间的空间关系，改进了Queen权重定义，充分体现了对上下游的空间邻接关系的考量过程。This scheme uses w i, j to represent the spatial relationship between the secondary sub-watersheds in the study area, improves the definition of Queen weight, and fully reflects the process of considering the spatial adjacency relationship between upstream and downstream.
V[I]＝E[I2]-E[I]2；V[I]=E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ;
其中，E[I]为I的均值；V[I]为I的方差；E[I2]为I的平方的期望；S1为第一平方和参数；S2为第二平方和参数。Among them, E[I] is the mean value of I; V[I] is the variance of I; E[I 2 ] is the expectation of the square of I; S 1 is the first sum of squares parameter; S 2 is the second sum of squares parameter.
进一步的，对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标做聚集性分布评价的方法包括：Furthermore, the methods for evaluating the aggregated distribution of the aggregated hydropower development degree indicators include:
S401、针对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标，采用局部空间自相关分析方法，计算每个二级子流域的局部莫兰指数Ii、局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi；S401. For the aggregated hydropower development degree index, calculate the local Moran index I i and the local Moran index statistics Z Ii of each secondary sub-watershed by using a local spatial autocorrelation analysis method;
S402、结合局部莫兰指数Ii和局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi，对所有二级子流域做聚集性评价。S402. Combining the local Moran index I i and the local Moran index statistic Z Ii , perform aggregation evaluation on all secondary sub-watersheds.
做聚集性分布评价的目的在于识别具有聚集性的二级子流域分布情况，本方案引入局部空间自相关分析方法，在计算各聚集性的水电开发程度指标所对应的每个二级子流域的局部莫兰指数Ii的基础上，还进行局部莫兰指数统计，得到局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi，同样作为聚集性分布评价的指标，能够使得聚集性分布评价的结果更为准确。The purpose of cluster distribution evaluation is to identify the distribution of clustered secondary sub-watersheds. This program introduces the local spatial autocorrelation analysis method, and calculates the distribution of each secondary sub-watershed corresponding to the aggregated hydropower development degree indicators. On the basis of the local Moran index Ii , local Moran index statistics are also carried out to obtain the local Moran index statistic Z Ii , which can also be used as an index for evaluating the aggregation distribution, which can make the evaluation result of the aggregation distribution more accurate.
进一步的，局部莫兰指数Ii通过如下公式计算：Further, the local Moran index I i is calculated by the following formula:
式中，Si 2是除了第i个二级子流域以外，其余所有二级子流域的具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标的方差；In the formula, S i 2 is the variance of the agglomerative hydropower development degree indicators of all second-level sub-basins except the i-th second-level sub-basin;
局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi通过如下公式计算：The local Moran index statistic Z Ii is calculated by the following formula:
式中，E[Ii]为Ii的均值；V[Ii]为Ii的方差，
其中：in:
若ZIi＞1.65、Ii＞0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为高值聚集区域；If Z Ii > 1.65, I i > 0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-value aggregation area;
若ZIi＞1.65、Ii＜0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为高低值区域；If Z Ii >1.65, I i <0, then the evaluation result of aggregation distribution of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-low value area;
若ZIi＜-1.65、Ii＜0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为低高值区域；If Z Ii <-1.65, I i <0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-high value area;
若ZIi＜-1.65、Ii＞0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为低值聚集区域；If Z Ii <-1.65, I i >0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-value aggregation area;
若-1.65≤ZIi≤1.65，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为非显著区域。If -1.65≤Z Ii ≤1.65, the evaluation result of aggregation distribution of the secondary sub-watershed is a non-significant area.
进一步的，做水电开发程度综合评价的方法包括：Furthermore, the methods for comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree include:
S501、基于二级子流域内是否有在建或已建水电站进行分类；S501. Classify based on whether there are hydropower stations under construction or under construction in the second-level sub-watershed;
S502、在分类结果的基础上，结合聚集性判断结果、聚集性分布评价结果、当前二级子流域的水电开发程度指标与该水电开发程度指标的中位数的关系、当前二级子流域的水电开发程度指标与该水电开发程度指标的第三四分位数的关系，对水电开发程度进行综合评价。S502. On the basis of the classification results, combine the aggregation judgment results, the aggregation distribution evaluation results, the relationship between the current hydropower development degree index of the second-level sub-watershed and the median of the hydropower development degree index, and the current second-level sub-watershed's hydropower development degree index. The relationship between the hydropower development degree index and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index is used to comprehensively evaluate the hydropower development degree.
本方案给出了评价水电开发程度所需的对应参数指标，在实际操作时可根据实际需要由上述指标设定具体的评价方案。This program provides the corresponding parameter indicators required to evaluate the degree of hydropower development. In actual operation, a specific evaluation program can be set from the above indicators according to actual needs.
本发明与现有技术相比，具有如下的优点和有益效果：Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，克服了现有的评价过程难以剔除气候变化、农业活动或城镇化等因素的缺陷，以水电开发程度作为评价依据，避免了数据采样所导致的不确定性，评价结果能够体现流域的空间异质性。1. A comprehensive evaluation method for the degree of hydropower development of the present invention overcomes the defects that it is difficult to eliminate factors such as climate change, agricultural activities or urbanization in the existing evaluation process, and uses the degree of hydropower development as the evaluation basis to avoid the problems caused by data sampling. Uncertainty, the evaluation results can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed.
2、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，更清晰的考虑了上游和下游、支流和干流的空间关联关系，通过子流域之间的临接性进行定量的判断，一定程度反应了子流域之间的连通性，具有可操作性强、评价结果科学等优点。2. A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree of the present invention, which more clearly considers the spatial correlation between upstream and downstream, tributaries and main streams, and quantitatively judges through the adjacency between sub-basins, which reflects sub-basins to a certain extent The connectivity between them has the advantages of strong operability and scientific evaluation results.
3、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，不仅可用于水电开发对流域生态安全状况影响的评估，也可以用于流域尺度下的水电开发水平的综合评价，可为水库群的累积环境影响评价、流域水电优化布局、水电站改造、未来的水电工程建设和运行、流域的生态环境保护措施制定等提供科学的辅助信息和决策依据。3. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree in the present invention can not only be used for the evaluation of the impact of hydropower development on the ecological security status of the watershed, but also can be used for the comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development level at the watershed scale, which can be used for the cumulative environmental impact of the reservoir group Provide scientific auxiliary information and decision-making basis for evaluation, optimal layout of hydropower in the basin, reconstruction of hydropower stations, construction and operation of future hydropower projects, formulation of ecological and environmental protection measures for the basin, etc.
4、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，在水电开发程度综合评价领域内，引入了全新的水电开发程度指标，指标考虑了河流长度和流域面积等流域情况，在提高评价方法可操作性和数据易获取性的前提下，有利于更加综合的量化流域的水电开发程度。4, a kind of comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree of the present invention, in the field of comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree, introduces brand-new hydropower development degree index, index has considered river basin conditions such as river length and basin area, improves the operability of evaluation method Under the premise of easy access to data and data, it is conducive to a more comprehensive quantification of the degree of hydropower development in the river basin.
5、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，引入空间自相关分析法中的莫兰指数，通过全局莫兰指数和标准差倍数共同评价不同二级子流域在各水电开发程度指标下的聚集性，有利于提高评价准确性。5. A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree of the present invention, which introduces the Moran index in the spatial autocorrelation analysis method, and jointly evaluates the aggregation of different secondary sub-watersheds under each hydropower development degree index through the global Moran index and standard deviation multiples It is beneficial to improve the accuracy of evaluation.
6、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，引入局部莫兰指数和局部莫兰指数统计量，能够得到准确的聚集性分布评价结果，为水电开发程度的评价提供有力支撑。6. A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree of the present invention introduces local Moran index and local Moran index statistics, can obtain accurate aggregation distribution evaluation results, and provides strong support for the evaluation of hydropower development degree.
7、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，通过对水电开发程度指标的聚集性分布评价，能有效实现水电开发影响的识别，从新的技术角度实现了对水电开发影响的识别。7. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree in the present invention can effectively realize the identification of hydropower development impact through the aggregated distribution evaluation of the hydropower development degree index, and realize the identification of hydropower development impact from a new technical perspective.
8、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，能够结合局部空间自相关结果的含义进行影响因子排序，从而实现水电开发程度等级的细化划分。8. A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree in the present invention can sort the influencing factors in combination with the meaning of local spatial autocorrelation results, so as to realize the fine division of hydropower development degree grades.
9、本发明一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，基于多指标的聚集性分布评价实现综合评价，强调从各方面对水电开发程度的综合评估。9. The present invention provides a method for comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development, which realizes comprehensive evaluation based on multi-indicator aggregation distribution evaluation, and emphasizes the comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development from all aspects.
附图说明Description of drawings
此处所说明的附图用来提供对本发明实施例的进一步理解，构成本申请的一部分，并不构成对本发明实施例的限定。在附图中：The drawings described here are used to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the present invention, constitute a part of the application, and do not limit the embodiments of the present invention. In the attached picture:
图1为本发明具体实施例的流程示意图；Fig. 1 is the schematic flow chart of the specific embodiment of the present invention;
图2为本发明具体实施例中的聚集性判断结果示意图；Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of aggregation judgment results in a specific embodiment of the present invention;
图3为本发明具体实施例中的聚集性分布评价结果示意图；Fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of the aggregation distribution evaluation results in a specific embodiment of the present invention;
图4为本发明具体实施例中的水电开发程度综合评价结果示意图。Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of comprehensive evaluation results of hydropower development degree in a specific embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
为使本发明的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚明白，下面结合实施例和附图，对本发明作进一步的详细说明，本发明的示意性实施方式及其说明仅用于解释本发明，并不作为对本发明的限定。In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the examples and accompanying drawings. As a limitation of the present invention.
实施例1：Example 1:
如图1所示的一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，包括：A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree as shown in Figure 1, including:
步骤一、根据指定区域内的流域划分情况，得到若干一级子流域；结合人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响，将所述一级子流域划分为若干二级子流域。
本实施例中一级子流域的划分，可根据现有的三级流域划分标准实现，如行业标准SL.249《中国河流代码》、SL653-2013《小流域划分及编码规范》、《河道等级划分办法》等进行划分。将已知的三级流域指定为本方法中的一级子流域即可。The division of the first-level sub-watersheds in this embodiment can be realized according to the existing three-level watershed division standards, such as the industry standard SL. Classification method" and so on. It is enough to designate the known third-level watersheds as the first-level sub-watersheds in this method.
其中，所述人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响包括：行政区划、大坝位置、地形地貌、土壤侵蚀强度、土地利用率、地质灾害点分布、水环境数据中的任意一种或多种。Among them, the truncated impact of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology includes: any one or more of administrative divisions, dam locations, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization, geological disaster point distribution, and water environment data. kind.
优选的，若一级子流域面积过大，则优先基于行政区划边界划分二级子流域；并且，在考虑大坝位置时，以大坝尽量出现在二级子流域中心而非边界附近为宜。Preferably, if the area of the first-level sub-basin is too large, the priority is to divide the second-level sub-basin based on the administrative boundary; and, when considering the location of the dam, it is advisable that the dam should appear in the center of the second-level sub-basin rather than near the boundary .
步骤二、计算各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标。Step 2: Calculating the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-watershed.
其中，水电开发程度指标包括：水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量、水电开发密度和水电开发强度。Among them, the indicators of hydropower development degree include: the total number of hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of hydropower stations, the density of hydropower development and the intensity of hydropower development.
所述水电开发密度通过如下公式计算：
所述水电开发强度通过如下公式计算：
步骤三、对各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断。Step 3: Make aggregation judgments on the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-watershed.
采用空间自相关分析法计算各水电开发程度指标的莫兰指数，得到全局莫兰指数I、标准差倍数Z；Using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method to calculate the Moran index of each hydropower development degree index, the global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are obtained;
若I＞0，且Z>2.58，认为该水电开发程度指标具有聚集性；否则，认为该水电开发程度指标不具有聚集性。If I>0, and Z>2.58, it is considered that the index of hydropower development degree has aggregation; otherwise, it is considered that the index of hydropower development degree does not have aggregation.
根据聚集性判断结果，若其中任一水电开发程度指标具有聚集性，则进入步骤四；若所有水电开发程度指标均不具有聚集性，进入步骤五。According to the clustering judgment result, if any of the hydropower development degree indicators has clustering properties, go to
步骤四、对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标做聚集性分布评价。Step 4: Evaluate the aggregated distribution of the aggregated hydropower development degree indicators.
针对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标，采用局部空间自相关分析方法，计算每个二级子流域的局部莫兰指数Ii、局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi；For the aggregated hydropower development degree index, the local spatial autocorrelation analysis method is used to calculate the local Moran index I i and the local Moran index statistics Z Ii of each secondary sub-watershed;
结合局部莫兰指数Ii和局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi，对所有二级子流域做聚集性评价。Combined with the local Moran index I i and the local Moran index statistics Z Ii , the aggregation evaluation of all secondary sub-watersheds is done.
本实施例中聚集性评价的指标为：The index of aggregation evaluation in the present embodiment is:
若ZIi＞1.65、Ii＞0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为高值聚集区域；If Z Ii > 1.65, I i > 0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-value aggregation area;
若ZIi＞1.65、Ii＜0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为高低值区域；If Z Ii >1.65, I i <0, then the evaluation result of aggregation distribution of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-low value area;
若ZIi＜-1.65、Ii＜0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为低高值区域；If Z Ii <-1.65, I i <0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-high value area;
若ZIi＜-1.65、Ii＞0，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为低值聚集区域；If Z Ii <-1.65, I i >0, then the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-value aggregation area;
若-1.65≤ZIi≤1.65，则该二级子流域的聚集性分布评价结果为非显著区域。If -1.65≤Z Ii ≤1.65, the evaluation result of aggregation distribution of the secondary sub-watershed is a non-significant area.
步骤五、基于聚集性判断或聚集性分布评价结果，综合评价水电开发程度。Step 5: Comprehensively evaluate the degree of hydropower development based on aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation results.
首先基于二级子流域内是否有在建或已建水电站进行分类；然后在分类结果的基础上，结合聚集性判断结果或聚集性分布评价结果、当前二级子流域的水电开发程度指标与该水电开发程度指标的中位数的关系、当前二级子流域的水电开发程度指标与该水电开发程度指标的第三四分位数的关系，评价水电开发程度。Firstly, classify based on whether there are hydropower stations under construction or already built in the second-level sub-basin; then, on the basis of the classification results, combine the aggregation judgment results or aggregation distribution evaluation results, the current hydropower development degree index of the second-level sub-basin and the The relationship between the median of the hydropower development degree index, the relationship between the hydropower development degree index of the current second-level sub-basin and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index is used to evaluate the hydropower development degree.
优选的，本实施例中：Preferably, in this embodiment:
首先基于二级子流域内是否有在建或已建水电站作为分类，将具有在建或已建水电站的二级子流域分为水电开发区、将不具有在建或已建水电站的二级子流域分为水电工程影响区。First, based on whether there are hydropower stations under construction or in the second-level sub-basin as a classification, the second-level sub-basins with hydropower stations under construction or under construction are divided into hydropower development zones, and the second-level sub-basins without hydropower stations under construction or under construction are divided into hydropower development zones. The watershed is divided into hydropower project impact areas.
将聚集性评价中的高值聚集区域、高低值区域作为最重要的影响因子，将低高值区域作为次要影响因子；并且，为防止个别二级子流域的单一开发指标过高被忽略，还将第三四分位数和中位数作为更次要的影响因子。The high-value aggregation area and high-low value area in the aggregation evaluation are regarded as the most important influencing factors, and the low-high value area is regarded as the secondary influencing factor; and, in order to prevent the single development index of individual secondary sub-basins from being too high and being ignored, The third quartile and median were also included as more secondary impact factors.
本实施例最终获得水电开发区和水电工程影响区两大类，将水电开发区分为极高、高、中、低，将水电工程影响区分为高和低，共计6个程度；所得到的优选评价方案如表1所示。This embodiment finally obtains two major categories of hydropower development zones and hydropower project impact areas, and the hydropower development zones are divided into extremely high, high, medium, and low, and the hydropower project impact zones are divided into high and low, a total of 6 degrees; the obtained The preferred evaluation scheme is shown in Table 1.
表1Table 1
对于步骤二中所有水电开发程度指标均不具有聚集性、直接进入步骤五的情况而言，那么则只根据是否有在建或已建水电站，将对应的二级子流域评价为低水电开发程度的水电开发区或低水电开发程度的水电工程影响区即可。For the case where all the hydropower development degree indicators in step 2 are not aggregated and directly enter step 5, then the corresponding secondary sub-basin is evaluated as low hydropower development degree only based on whether there are hydropower stations under construction or have been built. The hydropower development zone or the hydropower project influence area with low degree of hydropower development is enough.
此外，除了表1中所记载的优选评价方案之外，还可根据本实施例的方法，结合聚集性判断结果、聚集性分布评价结果、中位数、四分位数等相关参数，得到其余的评价方案。In addition, in addition to the preferred evaluation scheme recorded in Table 1, the method of this embodiment can also be combined with related parameters such as aggregation judgment results, aggregation distribution evaluation results, medians, and quartiles to obtain the remaining evaluation plan.
实施例2：Example 2:
一种水电开发程度综合评价方法，在实施例1的基础上：A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree, on the basis of embodiment 1:
全局莫兰指数I、标准差倍数Z通过如下公式计算：The global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formula:
其中，n为二级子流域数量；xi为第i个二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；xj为第j个二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；
若第i个二级子流域的和第j个二级子流域位于同一个一级子流域，且第i个二级子流域的和第j个二级子流域有上下游的邻接关系，则wi,j＝1；否则，wi,j＝0；If the i-th second-level sub-basin and the j-th second-level sub-basin are located in the same first-level sub-basin, and the i-th second-level sub-basin and the j-th second-level sub-basin have upstream and downstream adjacencies, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j =0;
V[I]＝E[I2]-E[I]2；V[I]=E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ;
其中，E[I]为I的均值；V[I]为I的方差；E[I2]为I的平方的期望；S1为第一平方和参数；S2为第二平方和参数。Among them, E[I] is the mean value of I; V[I] is the variance of I; E[I 2 ] is the expectation of the square of I; S 1 is the first sum of squares parameter; S 2 is the second sum of squares parameter.
局部莫兰指数Ii通过如下公式计算：The local Moran index I i is calculated by the following formula:
式中，Si 2是除了第i个二级子流域以外，其余所有二级子流域的具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标的方差；In the formula, S i 2 is the variance of the agglomerative hydropower development degree indicators of all second-level sub-basins except the i-th second-level sub-basin;
局部莫兰指数统计量ZIi通过如下公式计算：The local Moran index statistic Z Ii is calculated by the following formula:
式中，E[Ii]为Ii的均值；V[Ii]为Ii的方差，
本实施例中，空间权重矩阵wi,j表示二级子流域间的空间关系，改进了Queen权重定义，若二级子流域位于同一个一级子流域，且有上下游的邻接关系，则判断该两个二级子流域间存在空间联系，则取1；否则取0。In this embodiment, the spatial weight matrix w i,j represents the spatial relationship between the second-level sub-watersheds, and the definition of Queen weight is improved. If the second-level sub-watersheds are located in the same first-level sub-watershed and have upstream and downstream adjacencies, then If it is judged that there is a spatial connection between the two secondary sub-basins, then it takes 1; otherwise it takes 0.
优选的，还包括如下附加计算过程：Preferably, the following additional calculation process is also included:
E[I2]＝A-B；E[I 2 ]=AB;
其中，A、B均为中间参数。Among them, A and B are intermediate parameters.
实施例3：Example 3:
本实施例采用上述任一实施例所记载的方法在雅砻江流域和大渡河流域范围内进行水电开发程度综合评价。In this embodiment, the method described in any of the above embodiments is used to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development within the range of the Yalong River Basin and the Dadu River Basin.
位于四川省境内的雅砻江和大渡河流域(以下简称两江流域)水能资源丰富，经历了二十多年的规划和建设，但流域内还有许多电站处于未建和规划状态，并且多集中在生态脆弱的流域上游。已有研究发现两江流域的水电工程开发，对鱼类种群、水质等流域水生态环境产生了重要影响。因此，在两江流域综合评估水电开发程度，对管理流域水电工程的建设，降低水电开发生态环境影响，具有重大意义。The Yalong River and Dadu River basins (hereinafter referred to as the two river basins) located in Sichuan Province are rich in hydropower resources. After more than 20 years of planning and construction, there are still many power stations in the basin that have not been built or planned, and many Concentrate on the upper reaches of ecologically fragile watersheds. Existing studies have found that the development of hydropower projects in the Liangjiang River Basin has had an important impact on the water ecological environment of the river basin, such as fish populations and water quality. Therefore, it is of great significance to comprehensively evaluate the degree of hydropower development in the two river basins to manage the construction of hydropower projects in the basin and reduce the impact of hydropower development on the ecological environment.
本实施例中：In this example:
地形地貌根据DEM数据获得，采用30m空间分辨率的ASTER GDEM，数据下载于国家科学数据服务平台。The topography and geomorphology were obtained based on DEM data, using ASTER GDEM with a spatial resolution of 30m, and the data were downloaded from the National Scientific Data Service Platform.
本实施例按照三级流域划分标准确定一级子流域，再将雅砻江和大渡河流域划分为二级子流域。在ArcGIS中的水文模块中，在尽可能保证两江干流和主要子流域的完整性的基础上，基于一级子流域结果，最终划分出73个二级子流域。In this embodiment, the first-level sub-basins are determined according to the division standard of the third-level watersheds, and then the Yalong River and Dadu River basins are divided into second-level sub-basins. In the hydrological module of ArcGIS, on the basis of ensuring the integrity of the main stream of the two rivers and the main sub-basins as much as possible, based on the results of the first-level sub-basins, 73 second-level sub-basins were finally divided.
本实施例中对二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断的结果如图2所示。图2中A、B、C、D四幅小图分别表示了水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量、水电开发密度和水电开发强度四个水电开发程度指标的聚集性判断结果。从图2中可以看出，水电开发密度、水电开发强度与水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量基本一致，但水电开发密度、水电开发强度的空间异质性大于水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量，尤其是在两江流域的中上游尤为明显，这也从侧面证明本申请引入水电开发密度和水电开发强度指标的重要性。In this embodiment, the results of cluster judgment on the hydropower development degree indicators of the second-level sub-watersheds are shown in FIG. 2 . The four panels A, B, C, and D in Figure 2 represent the aggregation judgment results of the four hydropower development degree indicators, namely, the total number of hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of hydropower stations, the density of hydropower development, and the intensity of hydropower development. It can be seen from Figure 2 that the density and intensity of hydropower development are basically consistent with the total number of hydropower stations and the total installed capacity of hydropower stations, but the spatial heterogeneity of the density and intensity of hydropower development is greater than the total number of hydropower stations and the total installed capacity of hydropower stations. Especially in the middle and upper reaches of the two river basins, this also proves from the side the importance of introducing the indicators of hydropower development density and hydropower development intensity in this application.
本实施例中的聚集性分布评价结果如图3所示。图3中从左至右四幅小图分别表示了水电站总数量、水电站总装机容量、水电开发密度和水电开发强度四个水电开发程度指标的聚集性分布评价结果。从图3中可以看出，虽然四个指标的空间分布基本一致，但在局部会存在较大差异，这表明基于单一指标的水电开发程度评价容易忽视个别子流域的水电开发综合情况，这也从侧面证明本申请综合四个指标和其空间聚集性特征，所建立的综合水电开发程度评价模型的科学性和准确性。为了更进一步的验证这一观点，本实施例还对聚集性分布评价结果进行了差异性检验：通过Kruskal-Wallis H检验，发现总装机容量、电站个数、开发密度和开发强度在水电开发区的4个水电开发程度中呈现显著的差异性(p<0.05)，证明在水电开发区，各项指标的差异性明显，这同样证明了通过单一的水电开发程度指标是无法合理的对水电开发影响区进行程度划分；而本申请采用空间聚集性的统计分析结果进行划分，能有效的考虑水电开发过程中流域之间的累积生态环境影响。The aggregation distribution evaluation results in this example are shown in FIG. 3 . The four small graphs from left to right in Figure 3 respectively represent the evaluation results of cluster distribution of the four hydropower development degree indicators of total number of hydropower stations, total installed capacity of hydropower stations, hydropower development density, and hydropower development intensity. It can be seen from Figure 3 that although the spatial distribution of the four indicators is basically the same, there are large differences locally, which shows that the evaluation of the degree of hydropower development based on a single indicator tends to ignore the comprehensive situation of hydropower development in individual sub-basins, which is also From the side, it proves the scientificity and accuracy of the comprehensive hydropower development degree evaluation model established by this application by combining the four indicators and their spatial aggregation characteristics. In order to further verify this point of view, this example also conducts a difference test on the evaluation results of aggregation distribution: through the Kruskal-Wallis H test, it is found that the total installed capacity, the number of power stations, the development density and the development intensity are in the hydropower development zone. There are significant differences among the four hydropower development levels (p<0.05), which proves that in the hydropower development zone, the differences of various indicators are obvious, which also proves that it is impossible to reasonably evaluate the hydropower development level through a single hydropower development level index. The degree of impact area is divided; and this application adopts the statistical analysis results of spatial aggregation for division, which can effectively consider the cumulative ecological environment impact between watersheds in the process of hydropower development.
本实施例最终得到的水电开发程度综合评价结果如图4所示，该结果对后续的流域水电开发建设管理、流域水电工程运行管理、水生态环境监测与保护、地质灾害防范等均具有显著的指导意义。The result of the comprehensive evaluation of the degree of hydropower development obtained in this embodiment is shown in Figure 4. This result has a significant impact on the subsequent development and construction management of hydropower in the basin, the operation and management of hydropower projects in the basin, the monitoring and protection of the water ecological environment, and the prevention of geological disasters. Guiding significance.
实施例4：Example 4:
一种流域尺度的水电开发程度综合评价系统，用于实现实施例1或2中所记载的方法，包括：A comprehensive evaluation system for the degree of hydropower development at the basin scale, used to implement the method described in
流域分区模块，用于根据指定区域内的流域划分情况，得到若干一级子流域；并结合人类活动和自然生态条件对水文的截断影响，将所述一级子流域划分为若干二级子流域；The watershed division module is used to obtain several first-level sub-basins according to the division of watersheds in the designated area; and divide the first-level sub-basins into several second-level sub-basins in combination with the truncation effects of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology ;
指标模块，用于确定各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标；The indicator module is used to determine the indicators of the degree of hydropower development of each secondary sub-basin;
聚集性判断模块，用于对各二级子流域的水电开发程度指标做聚集性判断；Aggregation judgment module, which is used to make aggregation judgment on the hydropower development degree indicators of each secondary sub-watershed;
聚集性分布评价模块，用于对具有聚集性的水电开发程度指标做聚集性分布评价；The aggregation distribution evaluation module is used to evaluate the aggregation distribution of the indicators of the degree of hydropower development with aggregation;
评价模块，用于根据聚集性判断或聚集性分布评价结果，综合评价水电开发程度；The evaluation module is used to comprehensively evaluate the degree of hydropower development according to the aggregation judgment or the aggregation distribution evaluation results;
输出模块，用于输出水电开发程度的综合评价结果。The output module is used to output the comprehensive evaluation results of hydropower development degree.
实施例5：Example 5:
一种计算机可读存储介质，所述计算机可读存储介质存储有计算机程序，所述计算机程序被处理器执行时实现如实施例1或2中记载方法的步骤。A computer-readable storage medium. The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method described in
本发明实现上述实施例方法中的全部或部分流程，可以通过计算机程序可存储于一计算机可读存介质中，该计算机程序在被处理器执行时，可实现上述各个方法实施例的步骤。其中，所述计算机程序包括计算机程序代码、对象代码形式、可执行文件或某些中间形式等。所述计算机可读取介质可以包括：能够携带所述计算机程序代码的任何实体或装置、记录介质、U盘、移动硬盘、磁碟、光盘、计算机存储器、只读存储器、随机存储器、点载波信号、电信信号以及软件分发介质等。需要说明的是，所述计算机可读介质包含的内容可以根据司法管辖区内立法和专利实践的要求进行适当的增减。In the present invention, all or part of the processes in the methods of the above embodiments can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium through a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments can be realized. Wherein, the computer program includes computer program code, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form and the like. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, U disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory, random access memory, point carrier signal , telecommunication signals, and software distribution media. It should be noted that the content contained in the computer-readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased according to the requirements of legislation and patent practice in the jurisdiction.
所述处理器可以是中央处理器，还可以是其他通用处理器、数字信号处理器、专用集成电路、现成可编程门阵列或者其他可编程逻辑器件、分立门或者晶体管逻辑器件、分立硬件组件等。The processor can be a central processing unit, or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors, application-specific integrated circuits, off-the-shelf programmable gate arrays or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. .
以上所述的具体实施方式，对本发明的目的、技术方案和有益效果进行了进一步详细说明，所应理解的是，以上所述仅为本发明的具体实施方式而已，并不用于限定本发明的保护范围，凡在本发明的精神和原则之内，所做的任何修改、等同替换、改进等，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。The specific embodiments described above have further described the purpose, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above descriptions are only specific embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Protection scope, within the spirit and principles of the present invention, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc., shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
需要说明的是，在本文中，诸如术语“包括”、“包含”或者其任何其它变体，意在涵盖非排他性的包含，从而使得包括一系列要素的过程、方法、物品或者设备不仅包括那些要素，而且还包括没有明确列出的其他要素，或者是还包括为这种过程、方法、物品或者设备所固有的要素。It should be noted that, in this document, terms such as "comprising", "comprising" or any other variation thereof are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion such that a process, method, article or device comprising a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent in the process, method, article, or apparatus.
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