CN115759866A - Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree - Google Patents
Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a hydropower development degree comprehensive evaluation method, which comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of primary sub-watersheds according to watershed division conditions in a specified area; dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watersheds by combining human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology; determining hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin; performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin; performing aggregation distribution evaluation on the hydropower development degree index with aggregation; the hydroelectric development degree is evaluated based on the results of aggregative judgment or aggregative distribution evaluation. The invention provides a hydropower development degree comprehensive evaluation method, which aims to overcome the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, realize the comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree which is easy to operate, scientific and reasonable under the scale of a territory, and further provide more scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for the future development scheme.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of evaluation of drainage basin water energy resources, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation method of water and electricity development degree.
Background
From construction to operation of hydroelectric engineering, various ecological environmental effects can be caused by changing the structures and functions of river and land ecosystems. In the prior art, researches around development of hydropower in a drainage basin mainly focus on mode discussion of hydropower development, influence of hydropower development on water resource development, cumulative influence of step development and the like. However, the prior art still lacks a comprehensive evaluation means for the hydropower development degree under the drainage basin scale, which brings certain technical problems for researches on drainage basin ecological environment, reasonable planning and management of drainage basins, accumulative environment caused by hydropower development and the like.
Specifically, for the evaluation of the related effects generated by hydropower development, the evaluation is mostly completed by using the habitat and biological related indexes such as drainage runoff, habitat pattern, biogenic substances, vegetation index, aquatic flora structure and the like, and the evaluation mainly has the following defects: (1) Based on the evaluation results of the indexes, the influence of factors such as climate change, agricultural activities or urbanization is difficult to remove; (2) The indexes have a large amount of point-like sampling data, so that spatial heterogeneity is difficult to embody; the acquisition difficulty is relatively high, and the quantitative modeling difficulty under a large area scale is also improved; (3) The spatial relationship between upstream and downstream, side-stream and main streams is weak.
In conclusion, the existing assessment method is relatively limited in the aspects of managing the construction of hydropower projects in drainage basins, reducing the influence of hydropower development and the like, and a comprehensive hydropower development degree comprehensive assessment method which is easy to operate, scientific and reasonable is urgently needed to be established.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a hydropower development degree comprehensive evaluation method, which aims to solve the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, realize the comprehensive hydropower development degree evaluation which is easy to operate and scientific and reasonable under the flow domain scale, and further provide more scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for the future development scheme formulation.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree comprises the following steps:
s1, obtaining a plurality of primary sub-watersheds according to the watershed division condition in a specified area; dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watersheds by combining the human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
s2, determining hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin;
s3, performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin: if any index has aggregative property, entering S4; if all indexes have no aggregative property, entering S5;
s4, performing aggregative distribution evaluation on the hydropower development degree index with aggregative property;
and S5, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result.
Aiming at the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, the invention provides a hydropower development degree comprehensive evaluation method. Then, further refining and partitioning on the basis of the primary sub-watershed by combining human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology, and dividing each primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watersheds; the truncation influence of the human activities and the natural ecological conditions on the hydrology can be any parameter that the human activities and the natural ecological conditions may have an influence on the hydrological characteristics of the drainage basin, and a method for arbitrarily dividing the secondary sub-drainage basins by adopting the method is applicable to a person skilled in the art on the premise of considering the difference of the human activities and the natural ecological conditions, and is not specifically limited herein. Then, determining hydropower development degree indexes, and calculating each index value corresponding to each secondary sub-basin; the hydropower station development degree index is preferably related parameters capable of reflecting the technical performance and the economic performance of the hydropower station, and is not particularly limited herein. Then, performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin: if all indexes do not have aggregativity, the hydropower development degree comprehensive evaluation is directly carried out on the basis of the aggregativity judgment result; and if at least one index has aggregability, performing aggregability distribution evaluation on all the indexes with aggregability, and performing comprehensive hydropower development degree evaluation based on the aggregability distribution evaluation result.
Since the aggregability distribution evaluation is performed based on the result of the aggregability determination, the aggregation determination result is also considered in the same manner in the above-described process of evaluating the degree of development of hydropower based on the aggregation distribution evaluation result.
The method overcomes the defect that factors such as climate change, agricultural activities or urbanization are difficult to eliminate in the evaluation process of the prior art, and the uncertainty caused by data sampling is avoided by taking a plurality of hydropower development degree indexes as evaluation bases, and the evaluation result can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of a drainage basin; the method comprises the spatial correlation relationship between the upstream and downstream branches and the main flow, has strong operability and scientific evaluation result, can be used for evaluating the influence of hydropower development on the ecological safety condition of the drainage basin, can also be used for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development level under the drainage basin scale, and can provide scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for the evaluation of the accumulated environment influence of a reservoir group, the optimal layout of the drainage basin hydropower, the transformation of hydropower stations, the construction and operation of future hydropower engineering, the formulation of ecological environment protection measures of the drainage basin and the like.
Further, the truncated effects of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology include: administrative division, dam position, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data. The indexes such as administrative divisions, dam positions and land utilization rate are the cutoff influence of human activities on hydrology; indexes such as landforms, soil erosion intensity, geological disaster point distribution, water environment data and the like are the hydrological truncation influence of natural ecological conditions.
Further, the hydropower development degree index includes: the total number of hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength.
The traditional water energy resource quantification indexes mainly comprise theoretical storage capacity, technical exploitability, economic exploitability and the like, and the water and electricity development degree is mainly calculated based on installed capacity and annual energy production. If the hydropower development degree is simply calculated according to the installed capacity, although the hydropower development degree has the advantages of simplicity and convenience, the actual situation of hydropower development is difficult to accurately reflect; the practical utilization rate of the water energy can be scientifically reflected by calculating the water and electricity development degree according to the annual energy production, but the annual energy production data have the defects of difficulty in obtaining, easiness in being influenced by river water flow change and the like, so that the practical operability is low. In order to overcome the defects, the scheme takes four parameters of the total quantity of the hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength as hydropower development degree indexes, is favorable for more comprehensively quantifying the hydropower development degree of a drainage basin on the premise of improving the operability of the evaluation method and the easiness in data acquisition, and enables the evaluation result to have stronger comprehensiveness and scientificity.
Further, the hydroelectric power development density is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, HDD is the development density of hydropower, m is the number of hydropower stations in the secondary sub-flow field, and L is the river length in the secondary sub-flow field;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, HDI is the development strength of hydropower, A is the area of a secondary sub-basin, and P is i The installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
Further, the method for judging the aggregation of the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin comprises the following steps:
s301, calculating the Moran index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a spatial autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Moran index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
s302, if I is larger than 0 and Z is larger than 2.58, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have aggregative property; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregability.
The scheme adopts the global Moran index to represent the aggregative property of different secondary sub-watersheds under each hydropower development degree index. When I is greater than 0, the data is represented to be in positive spatial correlation, namely the hydropower development degree of the sub-watershed has spatial aggregation. Conversely, when I <0, the data shows spatial negative correlation and has no aggregation. Furthermore, when the standard deviation multiple Z >2.58, the spatial pattern that may reflect rejection of the null hypothesis at 99% confidence, i.e., the extent of sub-basin hydroelectric development, is most likely an aggregate distribution. Therefore, the solution is determined to have aggregation property when the two conditions of I > 0, Z >.
Further, the global morn index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formulas:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watersheds; x is a radical of a fluorine atom i The hydropower development degree index of the ith secondary sub-basin is obtained; x is the number of j The hydropower development degree index of the jth secondary sub-basin is obtained;
the average value of the hydropower development degree indexes of the n secondary sub-watersheds is obtained; w is a i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin; s. the 0 Aggregating all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin are located in the same primary sub-basin, and the ith secondary sub-basin is located in the same primary sub-basinThe domain and the jth secondary sub-domain have an up-down stream adjacency, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
Use of the scheme w i,j The spatial relationship between secondary sub-watersheds in the research area is shown, the Queen weight definition is improved, and the consideration process of the upstream and downstream spatial adjacency relationship is fully embodied.
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ；
Wherein, E [ I ]]Is the average value of I; v [ I ]]Variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]Expectation of being the square of I; s 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s. the 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
Further, the method for evaluating the aggregative distribution of the index of the degree of development of hydropower with aggregative properties comprises the following steps:
s401, aiming at the hydropower development degree index with aggregation, calculating the local Mulan index I of each secondary sub-basin by adopting a local space autocorrelation analysis method i Local Moire index statistic Z Ii ；
S402, combined local Molan index I i And the local Moran index statistic Z Ii And evaluating the aggregativity of all secondary sub-watersheds.
The purpose of aggregation distribution evaluation is to identify the distribution condition of the secondary sub-watersheds with aggregation, and the scheme introduces a local space autocorrelation analysis method to calculate the local Moire index I of each secondary sub-watersheds corresponding to the hydropower development degree indexes with aggregation i On the basis, local Moran index statistics is also carried out to obtain local Moran index statistics Z Ii Similarly, as an index of the aggregability distribution evaluation, the result of the aggregability distribution evaluation can be made more accurate.
Further, local Molan index I i Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, S i 2 The variance of the hydropower development degree indexes with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watersheds except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Moire index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, E [ I i ]Is I i The mean value of (a); v [ I ] i ]Is I i The variance of (a) is determined,
is I i The square of.
Wherein:
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-value aggregation area;
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a high-low value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a low-high value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-value aggregation area;
if-1.65. Ltoreq. Z Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the result of evaluating the aggregative distribution of the secondary sub-flow field is a non-significant area.
Further, the method for comprehensively evaluating the development degree of hydropower comprises the following steps:
s501, classifying the hydropower stations under construction or established in the secondary sub-flow domain;
s502, on the basis of the classification result, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree by combining the aggregation judgment result, the aggregation distribution evaluation result, the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the hydropower development degree index, and the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index.
The scheme provides corresponding parameter indexes required by evaluating the hydropower development degree, and a specific evaluation scheme can be set according to actual needs during actual operation.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree overcomes the defect that factors such as climate change, agricultural activities or urbanization are difficult to eliminate in the existing evaluation process, the hydropower development degree is used as an evaluation basis, uncertainty caused by data sampling is avoided, and the evaluation result can reflect spatial heterogeneity of a drainage basin.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, provided by the invention, has the advantages that the spatial incidence relation between the upstream and downstream, the branch flow and the main flow is more clearly considered, the quantitative judgment is carried out through the adjacency between the sub-watersheds, the connectivity between the sub-watersheds is reflected to a certain degree, the operability is strong, the evaluation result is scientific and the like.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree can be used for evaluating the influence of hydropower development on the ecological safety condition of a basin, can also be used for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development level under the scale of the basin, and can provide scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for the evaluation of the accumulated environmental influence of a reservoir group, the optimization layout of hydropower stations in the basin, the transformation of hydropower stations, the construction and operation of future hydropower engineering, the formulation of ecological environmental protection measures in the basin and the like.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree introduces a brand-new hydropower development degree index in the field of comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree, takes river length, river basin area and other river basin conditions into consideration as the index, and is favorable for more comprehensively quantifying the hydropower development degree of a river basin on the premise of improving the operability and the data accessibility of the evaluation method.
5. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, the Moran index in a spatial autocorrelation analysis method is introduced, the aggregations of different secondary sub-watersheds under various hydropower development degree indexes are evaluated together through the global Moran index and the standard deviation multiple, and the evaluation accuracy is improved.
6. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, the local Moran index and the local Moran index statistic are introduced, so that an accurate aggregative distribution evaluation result can be obtained, and powerful support is provided for evaluation of the hydropower development degree.
7. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, disclosed by the invention, the identification of the influence of the hydropower development can be effectively realized through the aggregative distribution evaluation of the hydropower development degree index, and the identification of the influence of the hydropower development is realized from a new technical angle.
8. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree can be used for sequencing the influence factors by combining the meanings of the local spatial autocorrelation results, so that the hydropower development degree grades are divided in a refining mode.
9. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree realizes comprehensive evaluation based on the aggregation distribution evaluation of multiple indexes, and emphasizes the comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree from all aspects.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an aggregative determination in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing the results of aggregative distribution evaluation in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the comprehensive evaluation result of the hydropower development degree in the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and the accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not used as limiting the present invention.
Example 1:
a method for comprehensively evaluating the development degree of hydropower shown in fig. 1 comprises the following steps:
step one, obtaining a plurality of primary sub-watersheds according to the watershed situation in a specified area; and dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watersheds by combining the human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology.
In this embodiment, the division of the first-level sub-watershed can be realized according to the existing three-level watershed division standard, such as the industry standard sl.249 "chinese river code", SL653-2013 "small watershed division and coding specification", and "river channel level division method". The known tertiary watershed is designated as the primary sub-watershed in the method.
Wherein the truncated effects of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology include: any one or more of administrative regions, dam positions, landforms, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data.
Preferably, if the area of the first-level sub-basin is too large, the second-level sub-basins are divided preferentially on administrative division boundaries; in consideration of the position of the dam, the dam is preferably located at the center of the secondary sub-basin rather than near the boundary.
And step two, calculating the hydropower development degree index of each secondary sub-basin.
Wherein, the hydropower development degree index includes: the total number of the hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength.
The hydroelectric development density is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, HDD is the development density of hydropower, m is the number of hydropower stations in the secondary sub-flow field, and L is the river length in the secondary sub-flow field;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, HDI is the development strength of hydropower, A is the area of a secondary sub-basin, and P is i The installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
And step three, performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin.
Calculating the Moran index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a spatial autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Moran index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
if I is greater than 0 and Z is greater than 2.58, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have aggregative property; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregability.
According to the aggregation judgment result, if any hydropower development degree index has aggregation, entering the fourth step; and if all the hydroelectric development degree indexes do not have aggregative property, entering a fifth step.
And step four, performing aggregative distribution evaluation on the hydropower development degree index with aggregative property.
Aiming at the hydropower development degree index with aggregation, a local spatial autocorrelation analysis method is adopted to calculate the local Molan index I of each secondary sub-basin i Local Moire index statistic Z Ii ；
Binding to local Moire index I i And local Moire index statistic Z Ii And performing aggregative evaluation on all secondary sub-domains.
The indexes of aggregative evaluation in this example were:
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-value aggregation area;
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a high-low value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a low-high value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-value aggregation area;
if-1.65. Ltoreq. Z Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the result of evaluating the aggregative distribution of the secondary sub-flow field is a non-significant area.
And step five, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result.
Classifying the hydropower stations under construction or established in the secondary sub-flow domain; and then, on the basis of the classification result, evaluating the hydropower development degree by combining the aggregation judgment result or the aggregation distribution evaluation result, the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the hydropower development degree index, and the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index.
Preferably, in this embodiment:
firstly, based on whether hydropower stations under construction or built exist in the secondary sub-flow areas or not as classification, the secondary sub-flow areas with the hydropower stations under construction or built are divided into hydropower development areas, and the secondary sub-flow areas without the hydropower stations under construction or built are divided into hydropower engineering influence areas.
Taking the high-value aggregation area and the high-value area in the aggregation evaluation as the most important influence factors, and taking the low-value area as a secondary influence factor; and, in order to prevent the single development index of the individual secondary sub-watersheds from being overlooked, the third quartile and the median are also used as more secondary influence factors.
In the embodiment, two categories of a hydropower development area and a hydropower engineering influence area are finally obtained, the hydropower development area is divided into a high area, a medium area and a low area, and the hydropower engineering influence area is divided into the high area and the low area, wherein the total number of the areas is 6; the obtained preferred evaluation schemes are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1
And for the condition that all the hydropower development degree indexes in the step two do not have aggregative property and directly enter the step five, evaluating the corresponding secondary sub-basin as a hydropower development area with low hydropower development degree or a hydropower engineering influence area with low hydropower development degree according to whether a hydropower station is under construction or already constructed.
In addition to the preferred evaluation schemes described in table 1, the remaining evaluation schemes can be obtained by the method of the present example by combining the aggregation evaluation results, the aggregation distribution evaluation results, the median, the quartile and other relevant parameters.
Example 2:
a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree is based on example 1:
the global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formulas:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watersheds; x is the number of i The hydropower development degree index of the ith secondary sub-basin is obtained; x is the number of j The hydropower development degree index of the jth secondary sub-basin is obtained;
the average value of the hydropower development degree indexes of the n secondary sub-watersheds is obtained; w is a i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin; s 0 Aggregating all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin are located in the same primary sub-basin and the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin have an up-down adjacent relation, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ；
Wherein, E [ I]Is the mean value of I; v [ I ]]Variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]Expectation of being the square of I; s. the 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s. the 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
Local Molan index I i Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, S i 2 The variance of the indexes of the development degree of the hydropower with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watersheds except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Moire index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, E [ I i ]Is I i The mean value of (a); v [ I ] i ]Is I i The variance of (a) is determined,
is I i The square of.
In this embodiment, the spatial weight matrix w i,j Representing the spatial relationship between the secondary sub-flow domains, improving the Queen weight definition, if the secondary sub-flow domains are positioned in the same primary sub-flow domain and have the adjacent relationship between the upstream and the downstream, judging that the two secondary sub-flow domains have spatial relationship, and taking 1; otherwise 0 is taken.
Preferably, the following additional calculation process is included:
E[I 2 ]＝A-B；
wherein A and B are both intermediate parameters.
Example 3:
in this embodiment, the method described in any one of the above embodiments is used to perform comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree in the range of yajiajiang river basin and great river basin.
The water energy resources of the Yahulling river and the great river basin (hereinafter referred to as two river basins) in Sichuan province are rich, and the Yahulling river and the great river basin (hereinafter referred to as two river basins) are planned and built for more than twenty years, but a plurality of power stations in the basin are not built and planned and are mostly concentrated on the upstream of the ecologically fragile basin. Research has found that the development of hydroelectric engineering in two river watersheds has important influence on the watershed water ecological environment such as fish population, water quality and the like. Therefore, the method has great significance for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree in two river basins, managing the construction of hydropower projects in the basin and reducing the influence of the hydropower development ecological environment.
In this embodiment:
the landform is obtained according to DEM data, ASTER GDEM with 30m spatial resolution is adopted, and the data is downloaded on a national scientific data service platform.
In this embodiment, the first-level sub-watershed is determined according to the third-level watershed division standard, and then the yamo river and the great river watershed are divided into the second-level sub-watershed. In a hydrological module in ArcGIS, 73 secondary sub-watersheds are finally divided based on the result of the primary sub-watersheds on the basis of ensuring the integrity of the two main river streams and the main sub-watersheds as far as possible.
The result of performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree index of the secondary sub-basin in this embodiment is shown in fig. 2. In fig. 2, four small graphs, namely a, B, C and D, respectively show the aggregative judgment results of four hydropower station development degree indexes, namely the total number of hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength. As can be seen from fig. 2, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength are basically consistent with the total number of the hydropower stations and the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, but the spatial heterogeneity of the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength is larger than the total number of the hydropower stations and the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, and is particularly obvious in the middle and upper reaches of two river watersheds, which also laterally proves the importance of the indexes of the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength introduced in the application.
The aggregative distribution evaluation results in this example are shown in fig. 3. Four small graphs from left to right in fig. 3 respectively show the aggregative distribution evaluation results of four hydropower development degree indexes, namely, total hydropower station amount, total installed capacity of hydropower station, hydropower development density and hydropower development strength. As can be seen from FIG. 3, although the spatial distribution of the four indexes is basically consistent, a large difference exists locally, which indicates that the comprehensive hydropower development condition of individual sub-watersheds is easily ignored in the hydropower development degree evaluation based on a single index, and this also laterally proves the scientificity and accuracy of the comprehensive hydropower development degree evaluation model established by integrating the four indexes and the spatial aggregation characteristics thereof. To further verify this point, the present example also performed a differential test on the aggregative distribution evaluation results: through Kruskal-Wallis H test, the total installed capacity, the number of power stations, the development density and the development strength are found to show remarkable differences (p is less than 0.05) in the 4 hydropower development degrees in the hydropower development area, and the difference of each index is proved to be remarkable in the hydropower development area, so that the degree division of the hydropower development influence area cannot be reasonably carried out through a single hydropower development degree index; the method and the device adopt the statistical analysis result of the space aggregation to divide, and can effectively consider the accumulated ecological environment influence among the watershed in the water and electricity development process.
The comprehensive evaluation result of the hydropower development degree finally obtained by the embodiment is shown in fig. 4, and the result has significant guiding significance for subsequent development and construction management of hydropower in a drainage basin, operation management of hydropower engineering in the drainage basin, monitoring and protection of water ecological environment, prevention of geological disasters and the like.
Example 4:
a comprehensive evaluation system for hydropower development degree of drainage basin scale is used for realizing the method described in embodiment 1 or 2, and comprises the following steps:
the watershed partition module is used for obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-watersheds according to the watershed partition condition in the designated area; the first-level sub-watershed is divided into a plurality of second-level sub-watersheds by combining the human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
the index module is used for determining hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin;
the aggregation judgment module is used for carrying out aggregation judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of the secondary sub-watersheds;
the aggregation distribution evaluation module is used for performing aggregation distribution evaluation on the hydropower development degree index with aggregation;
the evaluation module is used for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree according to the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result;
and the output module is used for outputting the comprehensive evaluation result of the hydropower development degree.
Example 5:
a computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method as recited in embodiment 1 or 2.
All or part of the flow of the method of the embodiments may be stored in a computer readable storage medium by a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method embodiments may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, an object code form, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying said computer program code, a recording medium, a usb-disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer memory, a read-only memory, a random access memory, a point carrier signal, a telecommunications signal, a software distribution medium, etc. It should be noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in the jurisdiction.
The processor may be a central processing unit, but may also be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors, application specific integrated circuits, off-the-shelf programmable gate arrays or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or the like.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that, in this document, terms such as "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Claims (10)
1. A comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, obtaining a plurality of primary sub-watersheds according to the watershed situation in the designated area; dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watersheds by combining human activities and the truncation influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
s2, determining hydropower development degree indexes of the secondary sub-watersheds;
s3, performing aggregative judgment on the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin: if any index has aggregative property, entering S4; if all indexes have no aggregative property, entering S5;
s4, performing aggregative distribution evaluation on the hydropower development degree index with aggregative property;
and S5, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result.
2. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 1, wherein the influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology truncation comprises: administrative division, dam position, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 1, wherein the hydropower development degree index includes: the total number of the hydropower stations, the total installed capacity of the hydropower stations, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength.
4. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydroelectric development levels according to claim 3,
the hydroelectric development density is calculated by the following formula:
in which HDD develops density for hydropower, and m is twoThe number of hydropower stations in the secondary sub-flow domain, L being the river length in the secondary sub-flow domain;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, HDI is the development strength of hydropower, A is the area of a secondary sub-basin, and P is i The installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 1, wherein the method for judging the aggregative property of the hydropower development degree indexes of each secondary sub-basin comprises the following steps:
s301, calculating the Moran index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a spatial autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Moran index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
s302, if I is larger than 0 and Z is larger than 2.58, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have aggregative property; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregability.
6. A comprehensive hydropower development degree evaluation method according to claim 5, wherein the global Moran index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formulas:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watersheds; x is a radical of a fluorine atom i The hydropower development degree index of the ith secondary sub-basin is obtained; x is a radical of a fluorine atom j The hydropower development degree index of the jth secondary sub-basin is obtained;
is n secondary stagesThe average value of the indexes of the development degree of the hydropower station in the sub drainage basin; w is a i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin; s 0 Aggregating all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin are positioned in the same primary sub-basin and the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin have an up-down adjacent relation, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I]2；
Wherein, E [ I]Is the mean value of I; v [ I ]]Is the variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]The expectation of being the square of I; s 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
7. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 6, characterized in that the method of performing aggregative distribution evaluation of the hydropower development degree index having aggregative property comprises:
s401, aiming at the hydropower development degree index with aggregation, calculating the local Molan index I of each secondary sub-basin by adopting a local space autocorrelation analysis method i Local Moire index statistic Z Ii ；
S402, combining local Moire index I i And local Moire index statistic Z Ii And evaluating the aggregativity of all secondary sub-watersheds.
8. The comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 7, characterized in that the local Molan index I i Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, S i 2 The variance of the hydropower development degree indexes with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watersheds except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Moire index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
in the formula, E [ Ii]Is I i The mean value of (a); v [ Ii]Is I i The variance of (a) is determined,
is I i The square of.
9. The comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to claim 7,
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a high-value aggregation area;
if Z is Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a high-low value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is less than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-basin is a low-high value area;
if Z is Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the result of the aggregative distribution evaluation of the secondary sub-watershed is a low-value aggregation area;
if-1.65 is less than or equal to Z Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the result of evaluating the aggregative distribution of the secondary sub-flow field is a non-significant area.
10. A comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree according to any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that the method of making the comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree comprises:
s501, classifying the hydropower stations under construction or established in the secondary sub-flow domain;
s502, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree by combining the aggregative property judgment result or the aggregative property distribution evaluation result, the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the hydropower development degree index, and the relation between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index on the basis of the classification result.
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