CN110298577A - Set disaster risk evaluating method and system for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model - Google Patents
Set disaster risk evaluating method and system for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
It sets disaster risk evaluating method and system present disclose provides the Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model.The evaluation method, including driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor corresponding index are chosen, it constructs the index system based on DPSIR model and forms index storehouse；The index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor is filtered out from index storehouse, obtains corresponding index value and normalized；Calculate the weight of selected index；It the press factors of screening are accordingly normalized into index value, state factor accordingly normalizes index value, impact factor and accordingly normalizes index value and response factor and accordingly normalize similar cumulative after index value is multiplied with respective weights respectively, obtain surging P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；Reduction pressure-bearing degree and reduction vulnerability degree are introduced, overall merit risk is calculated, then compared with default risk level threshold, judges the mountain flood risk class belonging to village is currently along the river.
Description
Technical field
Big flood that the disclosure belongs to Hazard Risk Assessment field more particularly to a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model is set
Evil risk evaluating method and system.
Background technique
Only there is provided background technical informations relevant to the disclosure for the statement of this part, it is not necessary to so constitute first skill
Art.
There is sudden flood caused by mountain flood refers to mountain area due to heavy rain, snow melt etc. water to concentrate flow velocity
Greatly, erosion damage power is strong, and the features such as silt even stone are carried under one's arms in water flow, often result in the big flood of locality.Due to mankind's activity
The continuous expansion of range, mountain flood frequently occurs in recent years.When mountain flood occurs, what is stood in the breach is often apart from river
The closer village along the river in road, it is poor that performance is combated a natural disaster in village house, once mountain flood occurs, it will it is raw to seriously threaten resident along the river
Property safety is ordered, therefore village is the basic unit of mountain flood prevention along the river, it is increasingly heavy to the assessment of its mountain flood risk status
It wants.
Zhou Chenghu et al. is proposed on the basis of analyzing each Main Factors that big flood is formed based on GIS-Geographic Information System
Flood risk regionalization index model obtains Liaohe River Basin flood disaster risk Comprehensive Regionalization.Mountain torrents are summarized as region system by Shi Peijun etc.
System, and the analyzing mountain flood in terms of natural phenomena and social property two.Zhan little Guo etc. uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP),
Under the support of GIS, mountain torrents risk is obtained using weighted mean method, has completed the Flood Hazard Risk to reservoir area of Three Gorges.
Danger area and vulnerability figure based on 1:25 geographical map, are overlapped analysis, space with GIS analysis tool by Tang Chuan etc.
Integrated analysis induces the factor data layer that mountain flood is formed and spread unchecked.However Features of Mountain Torrent Disaster with index system not
Together, diversity is showed.
Inventors have found that being chosen at present to the analysis and research of mountain flood risk mostly using basin or county domain as analytical unit
Index is mostly regional indexes, less to carry out for village along the river, and the Yanhe Village disaster influence factor that sets is more, be related to face compared with
Extensively, and lack the selecting index model more suited, selecting index is difficult to adequately and comprehensively；Set disaster wind for Yanhe Village
Dangerous evaluation index is more, and risk calculating is complex, and it is less to be applicable in evaluation number；Therefore mountain flood risk is commented at present
Although estimating conclusion generality and representative higher, specific aim and applicability deficiency.
Summary of the invention
Set that disaster selecting index is difficult, index system is difficult to construct, risk status is difficult to comment to solve Yanhe Village
The problem of estimating, the first aspect of the disclosure provide a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model and set disaster risk assessment side
Method, which employs new mountain flood selecting index modes, introduce five kinds of rule layer factor degree models, and have fully considered each
The mutual relationship of rule layer level of factor and buffering reduction effect, introduce synthesis for reduction surging and reduction vulnerability degree
In risk computation model, the Yanhe Village disaster that sets is commented comprehensively using five kinds of rule layer factor degree and integrated risk degree
Valence improves Yanhe Village and sets the accuracy of disaster risk assessment.
To achieve the goals above, the disclosure adopts the following technical scheme that
Set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model, comprising:
DPSIR model is introduced into mountain flood risk assessment, driving force factors, press factors, shape in Definition Model
The state factor, impact factor and response factor simultaneously assign corresponding mountain flood risk assessment characteristic；
Driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor accordingly sub- index are chosen, base is constructed
Index storehouse is formed in the index system of DPSIR model；
The index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor is filtered out from index storehouse, obtains corresponding index value and carries out normalizing
Change processing；
The weight of selected index is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
The press factors of screening are accordingly normalized into index value, state factor and accordingly normalize index value, impact factor phase
Index value and response factor should be normalized and accordingly normalize similar cumulative after index value is multiplied with respective weights respectively, obtain pressure
Spend P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model figure, the mutual relationship of each level of factor is considered
And buffering reduction effect, introduce reduction pressure-bearing degree PReduction=P × S and reduction vulnerability degree IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+
W2IReduction, integrated risk degree T is calculated, wherein W1For weighted value shared by press factors, W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
By integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, the current affiliated mountain flood wind in village along the river is judged
Dangerous grade.
The disclosure fully considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, in DPSIR model
Portion's relationship is reset；Risk analysis is carried out in conjunction with five kinds of rule layer factor angle value and integrated risk angle value, in conjunction with risk class
To Yanhe Village set disaster risk carry out overall merit.
The second aspect of the disclosure provides a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model and sets disaster risk assessment system
System.
Set disaster Risk Evaluating System for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model, comprising:
Model agrees with module, is used to for DPSIR model being introduced into mountain flood risk assessment, drive in Definition Model
The power factor, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor simultaneously assign corresponding mountain flood risk assessment characteristic；
Index storehouse constructs module, is used to choose driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response
Factor corresponding index constructs the index system based on DPSIR model and forms index storehouse；
Index value normalizes module, is used to filter out the index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor from index storehouse,
It obtains corresponding index value and is normalized；
Index weights computing module is used to calculate the weight of selected index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Factor degree and risk computing module, be used to accordingly normalize the press factors of screening index value, state because
Sub corresponding normalization index value, impact factor accordingly normalize index value and response factor accordingly normalize index value respectively with phase
It answers similar cumulative after multiplied by weight, obtains surging P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model
Figure considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, introduces reduction pressure-bearing degree PReduction=P × S and reduction are easy
Damage degree IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+W2IReduction, integrated risk degree T is calculated, wherein W1For weight shared by press factors
Value, W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
Risk class judgment module is used for integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, judges along the river
Mountain flood risk class belonging to village is current.
The disclosure fully considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, in DPSIR model
Portion's relationship is reset；Risk analysis is carried out in conjunction with five kinds of rule layer factor angle value and integrated risk angle value, in conjunction with risk class
To Yanhe Village set disaster risk carry out overall merit.
A kind of computer readable storage medium is provided in terms of the third of the disclosure.
A kind of computer readable storage medium, is stored thereon with computer program, realization when which is executed by processor
Set the step in disaster risk evaluating method for Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as described above.
4th aspect of the disclosure provides a kind of computer equipment.
A kind of computer equipment can be run on a memory and on a processor including memory, processor and storage
Computer program, the processor realize that the Yanhe Village as described above based on DPSIR model is set when executing described program
Step in disaster risk evaluating method.
The beneficial effect of the disclosure is:
(1) DPSIR model is applied in mountain flood risk assessment by the disclosure, carries out again to index each in model
Definition, resets model internal relations, is converted into the model system with mountain flood risk assessment characteristic.
(2) disclosure is based on DPSIR model, has chosen the index of a large amount of suitable mountain flood risk assessment, constructs mountain
Disaster Risk Evaluation Factors library, the selection for evaluation index.
(3) disclosure introduces surging, pressure-bearing degree, vulnerability degree and stops in carrying out village risk assessment processes along the river
Damage degree sets each criterion index situation of disaster for evaluating Yanhe Village, is conducive to evaluation village flood-control construction various aspects along the river
The weak spot of village flood control along the river is accurately positioned in deficiency.
(4) disclosure is according to T=W1×P×S+W2Overall merit risk T is calculated in × I × R, has fully considered each
The mutual relationship of factor degree and buffering reduction effect, calculate integrated risk degree, in conjunction with integrated risk degree to village along the river
Mountain flood risk carries out overall merit.
Detailed description of the invention
The Figure of description for constituting a part of this disclosure is used to provide further understanding of the disclosure, and the disclosure is shown
Meaning property embodiment and its explanation do not constitute the improper restriction to the disclosure for explaining the disclosure.
Fig. 1 is that a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model of the embodiment of the present disclosure is set disaster risk evaluating method stream
Cheng Tu.
Fig. 2 is that a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model of the embodiment of the present disclosure is set disaster Risk Evaluating System knot
Structure schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The disclosure is described further with embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawing.
It is noted that following detailed description is all illustrative, it is intended to provide further instruction to the disclosure.Unless another
It indicates, all technical and scientific terms used herein has usual with disclosure person of an ordinary skill in the technical field
The identical meanings of understanding.
It should be noted that term used herein above is merely to describe specific embodiment, and be not intended to restricted root
According to the illustrative embodiments of the disclosure.As used herein, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, otherwise singular
Also it is intended to include plural form, additionally, it should be understood that, when in the present specification using term "comprising" and/or " packet
Include " when, indicate existing characteristics, step, operation, device, component and/or their combination.
DPSIR model is a kind of assessment indicator system conceptual model widely used in environmental system, it is as weighing apparatus
It measures a kind of index system of environment and sustainable development and developed, it is from the point of view of network analysis to human and environment system
The interaction of system.The evaluation index for characterizing a natural system is divided into driving force (Driving forces), pressure by it
(Pressure), state (State), influence (Impact) and response (Responses) five seed type, in each type and be divided into
Several index.DPSIR conceptual model be for comprehensive analysis and description environmental problem and its with the relationship of social development and develop
Out, it is a general framework of organizational environment status information.This frame rises in sociological research, as one
The architecture of tissue markers is applied to environmental area and the Study on Sustainable Development.
Embodiment one
Fig. 1 is that a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model of the embodiment of the present disclosure is set disaster risk evaluating method stream
Cheng Tu.
The disaster risk evaluating method as shown in Figure 1, a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model of the present embodiment is set,
Include:
S101: redefining DPSIR model, assigns its mountain flood characteristic.
Model internal relations are reset, keep its relationship more rationally effective.
Driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor corresponding index, building is chosen to be based on
The index system of DPSIR model forms index storehouse.
Specifically, driving force factors are the direct factor for pushing mountain flood development and change；Driving force factors are to promote mountain
The index for the most original most critical that disaster occurs.For disaster is set in Yanhe Village, it is predominantly short to directly drive factor
The confluence that the heavy rainfall of time generates, therefore driving force factors index of correlation includes: characteristic period of time rainfall.
Press factors are to promote mountain flood development and change by be applied directly to village along the river after driving force effect
Pressure, be primarily referred to as under landform, the effect of river pressure, the state in village along the river；Press factors index of correlation includes landform
Index, crest discharge and channel roughness etc.；
State factor is that Yanhe Village falls state in which under pressure；State factor index of correlation includes River Embankment
Situation and village are with a distance from river etc.；
Impact factor is the influence generated after mountain flood, i.e. village fragility and vulnerability；Impact factor index of correlation
Including village status economic level, village's density of population and history flood loss etc.；
Response factor is the counter-measure and policy taken mountain flood village along the river；Response factor index of correlation packet
It includes flood control system situation, relief goods situation, evacuation route situation and resident and takes precautions against natural calamities and realize situation etc..
When raw mountain flood is shaved one's head in Yanhe Village, rainfall bring driving force factor D can play promotion to mountain flood and make
With, and by influencing the factors such as modulus of flood peak and concentration time, it controls flood village along the river and generates pressure P.Due to river, landform etc.
The presence of pressure factor affects the dike construct in village, village the states S index such as with a distance from river along the river, while passing through to village
Ji level, population situation etc. impact I.It is influenced to eliminate mountain flood, village mankind's activity along the river forms certain sound
R is answered, therefore responding R and reacting on influences I, while can change village dyke situation, the states S such as with a distance from river, and mitigate mountain torrents
Disaster bring pressure P.
Based on DPSIR model, according to selecting index principles such as science, objectivity, data availabilities, the present embodiment is chosen
27 can embody the index of village characteristic along the river, and construct mountain flood Risk Assessment Index System library.Selecting index is as follows.
Driving force is the direct factor for pushing mountain flood development and change, refers mainly to factor in terms of rainfall.Its optional index
Include:
(1) maximum 6h rainfall P6.Mountain flood main reason is short duration heavy rainfall, therefore chooses 6h maximum rainfall and comment
Estimate Yanhe Village to set disaster.
(2) rainfall P in the concentration timeIt converges.Along the river the village concentration time refers to that difference is pooled to village in the region of village
The section time experienced, rainfall can represent the maximum rainfall that village is subjected to along the river in the maximum concentration time for many years, more can
Prominent each village characteristic along the river.
(3) 24 hourly rainfall depth P of maximum24.Though the index is not representative, data are easy to get.When village rainfall along the river provides
When material lacks, the index can be temporarily chosen.
Pressure is mainly the factor in terms of small watershed, river.Its optional index includes:
(1) comprehensive basin is than drop JBasin.Comprehensive basin refers to the small watershed synthesis gradient than drop, can reflect small watershed confluence feelings
The index of condition.It is larger to mountain flood generation and influence on development in small watershed.The index value can be extracted by GIS tool.
(2) elevation standard deviation HMark.Reflect the index of small watershed elevation distribution dispersion degree.The index can be mentioned by GIS tool
It takes.
(3) topographic relief amplitude GIt rises.Yanhe Village is settled in an area the depth displacement of the highest point and the lowest point in domain, reflects rising for surface configuration
Lie prostrate height situation.
(4) comprehensive topographic index GIt is comprehensive.The composite index that the indexs such as comprehensive landform, the gradient and elevation obtain, can sufficiently reflect
Topography characteristic.The index can be extracted by GIS tool.
(5) concentration time TIt converges.Along the river the village concentration time refers in the region of village that difference is pooled to village section and is passed through
The time gone through reflects village confluence situation along the river.
(6) early period influences rainfall Pa.Water content size in soil can produce confluence influence mountain by influencing small watershed
The generation of disaster.
(7) modulus of flood peak Kp.Modulus of flood peak refers to the crest discharge Q of control sectionFloodWith the ratio of control area A.It should
Index can react channel characteristics.Calculation formula are as follows:
(8) comprehensive stream gradient JRiver.Comprehensive stream gradient refers to depth displacement between the two neighboring point in river and point-to-point transmission
The weighted average of the ratio between horizontal distance can react stream gradient size.
(9) maximum flood flow velocity Vm.The ratio of discharge of river Q and cross-sectional area A.Calculation formula are as follows:
(10) crest discharge QFlood.Crest discharge refers to that river discharge increases when the most of high-intensitive runoff in basin imports
Maximum value extremely.
State is primarily referred to as Yanhe Village and falls state in which under pressure.The index is difficult to quantify, in combination with practical
Situation is given a mark.Its optional index includes:
(1) River Embankment situation S in village's sectionDyke.It gives a mark in conjunction with dyke integrated degree to dyke flood control capacity.
(2) house firmness degree SHouse.In conjunction in village building materials and quality house firm situation in village is beaten
Point.
(3) house is far from river distance SDistance.In conjunction with the total amount of resident's amount and village carries out specific gravity calculating along the river in village.
(4) house and river relative elevation HRelatively.In conjunction with each household along the river household and the relative elevation in river be weighted it is flat
Calculate
Influence is primarily referred to as village fragility and vulnerability along the river.Fragility is higher, illustrates the disaster-stricken rear bring damage in village
It loses bigger.Its optional index includes:
(1) village's status economic level EVillage.GDP per capita can be quoted to evaluate community economy level.
(2) village's total population NVillage.Total number of persons in village.
(3) village's density of population d.The ratio of population P and village area in village.Calculation formula are as follows:
(4) infrastructure construction situation IConstruction.In combination with whether there is or not the actual conditions such as large enterprise, school to give a mark in village.
(5) land use situation L.It gives a mark in combination with crops value is mainly planted in village.
Response refers to the counter-measure and policy that mountain flood is taken in village along the river.The index is difficult to quantify, combinable
Actual conditions are given a mark.Its optional index includes；
(1) village's flood control system situation RSystem.It gives a mark in combination with the complete situation of flood control system, personnel placement situation in village.
(2) village's flood control facility situation RFacility.It gives a mark in combination with flood control Facilities Construction situation in village.
(3) evacuation route situation RRoute.It gives a mark in combination with evacuation route item number, road conditions in village etc..
(4) settlement situation RSettlement.It gives a mark in combination with a situation is transferred and resettled in village.
(5) resident, which takes precautions against natural calamities, realizes RConsciousness.It gives a mark in combination with situations such as slogan of taking precautions against natural calamities in village, flood control rehearsal.
1 index system table of table
S102: filtering out the index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor from index storehouse, obtains corresponding index value and goes forward side by side
Row normalized.
Specifically, selected index feature value is obtained, the relevant index of each factor is filtered out using linear interpolation and divides
For n grade standard；The index value after index normalization is obtained using following equation:
Wherein, X' is index actual value；H is that index assigns score value；S is indicators standard value；X is the number after index normalization
Value, subscript t indicate t-th of rule layer；Subscript j is the index value for indicating j-th of index.
S103: the weight of selected index is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP).
Specifically, binding hierarchy analytic approach, development of judgment matrix:
The feature vector of judgment matrix is calculated as each index weights: | λ E-Z |=0.
aiJ refers to the number of the i-th row jth column, belongs to the conventional expression way of matrix, such as a32Refer to the number of the 3rd row the 4th column
Value.Judgement Matricies Main is, by modes such as data-gathering, expert consultings to Index element each in index system
Compare two-by-two, the relative importance between comparison element, and characterized with scale value, scale is shown in Table 2.In step analysis mould
Judgment matrix Z is successively established according to top-down sequence in type.
2 scale value meaning table of table
S104: by the press factors of screening accordingly normalize index value, state factor accordingly normalize index value, influence because
Sub corresponding normalization index value and response factor accordingly normalize it is similar after index value is multiplied with respective weights respectively add up, obtain
Surging P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；
In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model figure, considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, introduce folding
Subtract pressure-bearing degree PReduction=P × S and reduction vulnerability degree IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+W2IReduction, overall merit risk is calculated
Spend T, wherein W1For weighted value shared by press factors, W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
From driving force factors D, press factors P, state factor S, five aspects of impact factor I and response factor R are started with, and are drawn
Enter danger level, surging.5 pressure-bearing degree, vulnerability degree and degree of stopping loss rule layer factor degree divide the Yanhe Village disaster that sets
Alanysis is accurately positioned each Yanhe Village and sets disaster weak link and weak spot, so that evaluation content is more full and accurate comprehensively,
So that work more accurate and effective of taking precautions against natural calamities.It is calculated separately to obtain danger level D, surging P, pressure-bearing degree according to weighted synthetical evaluation method
S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R.Specific formula is as follows:
Danger level:
Surging:
Pressure-bearing degree:
Vulnerability degree:
Degree of stopping loss:
In formula: Wi、Wj、Wk、Wl、WmIt is weighted value shared by corresponding index；Xi、Xj、Xk、Xl、XmFor the score value of each index.
Since the set driving force of disaster of Yanhe Village directly acts on river and underlying surface, and pass through river and underlying surface
The production confluence mechanism pressure that is formed influence the generation of mountain flood, therefore Yanhe Village is set, disaster integrated risk degree is by pressure
The influence of index, and it is unrelated with driving force index.
While pressure index changes village state index along the river, the state index in village will form reaction along the river,
Mitigate mountain flood pressure, therefore pressure-bearing degree can be used as the reduction coefficient to surging, the pressure-bearing degree after reduction can be more accurately anti-
Reflect the mountain flood pressure value that village is born along the river.It is reduced pressure-bearing degree calculation formula are as follows:
It is reduced pressure-bearing degree: PReduction=P × S
Similarly, the influence I of mountain flood promote along the river village resident respond R, while responding and can reduce mountain flood
Bring influences.Therefore degree of stopping loss is considered as the reduction of vulnerability degree, the vulnerability degree after reduction can more accurately reflect village along the river
Fragility.It is reduced vulnerability degree calculation formula are as follows:
It is reduced vulnerability degree: IReduction=I × R
Therefore Yanhe Village is set, disaster risk is predominantly reduced surging and reduction vulnerability degree is coefficient as a result, holding
Pressure degree and degree of stopping loss participate in calculating respectively as the reduction coefficient of surging and vulnerability degree.
The present embodiment sets the Main Factors of disaster using surging and vulnerability degree as influence Yanhe Village, calculates separately pressure
Dynamics and vulnerability degree weight shared in mountain flood evaluation, comprehensively consider village pressure-bearing degree along the river and reductions degree bring is delayed
Punching and reduction effect, introduce new mountain flood risk model are as follows: T=f (D, P, S, I, R) is weighted reduction superposition meter
Calculate overall merit risk angle value.It is specific as follows:
Overall merit risk: T=W1×P×S+W2× I × R=W1×PReduction+W2×IReduction；
In formula: T is overall merit risk；W1For weighted value shared by pressure.W2To influence shared weighted value.
S105: by integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, judge the current affiliated mountain torrents in village along the river
Calamity source grade.
The size of overall merit risk is in 0~1 range, and risk class is at least 3 grades.
After obtaining overall merit risk, risk etc. is carried out in conjunction with the risk class criteria for classifying according to risk angle value size
Grade divides, so that result more ocular and clear.
2 dangerous grade classification of table
Area, Wendeng City is chosen below because sun river bank prosperous in temple bridge small watershed, vegetable garden small watershed 5 villages of bank are as research object.
In conjunction with mountain flood risk evaluating method, the present embodiment is applied in evaluation procedure, fully considers small watershed characteristic and along the river
Village feature, to research object just risk assessment.
The mountain flood Risk Assessment Index System that the present embodiment is established is applied to research area Yanhe Village to set disaster
In risk assessment, the selected part index from the present embodiment index storehouse, village index system, detailed index are shown in Table along the river for building
3。
3 index system table of table
The normalization numerical value of each index value in the weighted value and appraisement system being calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), will be each
The normalized value of index is weighted superposition, has finally obtained each rule layer factor degree in 5 villages along the river, has obtained final result
It is shown in Table 4.
4 risk status index calculation result table of table
According to index weights calculation method, calculates pressure and influence the weight of two factors, in conjunction with obtained surging, hold
Pressure degree, vulnerability degree and angle value is stopped loss, using the present embodiment overall merit risk formula, 5 Yanhe Villages have finally been calculated
The risk status overall merit risk fallen, obtains final result and is shown in Table 5.
5 overall merit risk calculation result table of table
After obtaining overall merit risk, risk etc. is carried out in conjunction with the risk class criteria for classifying according to risk angle value size
Grade divides, so that result more ocular and clear.
6 overall merit risk calculation result table of table
From final result as can be seen that mountain flood overall merit risk angle value in the village Deng Dengkou is 0.386, Gu Dengdengkoucun
Risk highest.Each index score value is analyzed it is found that the village Deng Dengkou danger level D and surging P value are larger, comprehensive topographic index compared with
Greatly, landform is steeper, and the concentration time is small, and house is more old in village, resists that flood ability is smaller, and Gu Dengdengkoucun should reinforce preventing
Flood construction, emphasis flood control.Mountain flood overall merit risk angle value in the village Zhao Jiachuan is 0.29, and risk is minimum.Analysis is it is found that Zhao
The village Jia Chuan pressure angle value is lower, and landform is relatively slow, and the concentration time is long, is influenced by mountain flood smaller.
The present embodiment combines the specific status in village along the river, sets 5 key factors of disaster, determines from Yanhe Village
A series of reasonable indexs in conjunction with DPSIR model have been formulated the index system for meeting village characteristic along the river, have been promoted to edge
The understanding and flow of research of river village mountain flood characteristic.Finally obtain each rule layer factor degree and overall merit in village along the river
Risk can intuitively reflect each village along the river respectively mountain flood weak link and weak spot, may advantageously facilitate along the river
The emphasis flood control in village and focus efforts on special areas.
DPSIR model is not common to different field, and the present embodiment is according to mountain flood risk assessment requirement, to DPSIR
Model intension is redefined, and is reset to model internal relations, can be suitable for mountain flood risk assessment.
The present embodiment is based on DPSIR model, has chosen a large amount of Yanhe Villages and sets disaster evaluation index, constructs index
Library, the disaster risk assessment that can set for the Yanhe Village of different type, different characteristics provide index selection.
The present embodiment introduces danger level, surging, pressure-bearing degree, rapid wear in carrying out village risk assessment processes along the river
It spends and five rule layer factor degree models of degree of stopping loss, sets each criterion index situation of disaster, be conducive to for evaluating Yanhe Village
Along the river flood-control construction various aspects in village are insufficient for evaluation, and the weak spot of village flood control along the river is accurately positioned.
The present embodiment introduces new integrated risk degree model, has fully considered danger in carrying out the evaluation of ultimate risk degree
Relationship between dangerous degree, surging, pressure-bearing degree, vulnerability degree and degree of stopping loss, which is eased up, washes off reduction fruit, so that obtained result is more
It is comprehensively accurate.
Embodiment two
Fig. 2 is that a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model of the embodiment of the present disclosure is set disaster Risk Evaluating System knot
Structure schematic diagram.
As shown in Fig. 2, setting disaster risk assessment system the present embodiment provides a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model
System, comprising:
(1) model agrees with module, is used to for DPSIR model being introduced into mountain flood risk assessment, in Definition Model
Driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor simultaneously assign corresponding mountain flood risk assessment spy
Property；
(2) index storehouse constructs module, is used to choose driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and sound
Factor corresponding index is answered, the index system based on DPSIR model is constructed and forms index storehouse；
(3) index value normalizes module, is used to filter out the finger of the relevant preset quantity of each factor from index storehouse
Mark obtains corresponding index value and is normalized；
Specifically, in index value normalization module, the relevant finger of each factor is filtered out using linear interpolation
Mark is divided into n grade standard；The index value after index normalization is obtained using following equation:
Wherein, X' is index actual value；H is that index assigns score value；S is indicators standard value；X is the number after index normalization
Value, subscript t indicate t-th of rule layer；Subscript j is the index value for indicating j-th of index.
(4) index weights computing module is used to calculate the weight of selected index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
(5) factor degree and risk computing module are used to the press factors of screening accordingly normalizing index value, state
The factor accordingly normalize index value, impact factor accordingly normalize index value and response factor accordingly normalize index value respectively with
Respective weights are similar cumulative after being multiplied, and obtain surging P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model
Figure considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, introduces reduction pressure-bearing degree PReduction=P × S and reduction are easy
Damage degree IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+W2IReduction, integrated risk degree T is calculated, wherein W1For weight shared by press factors
Value, W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
(6) risk class judgment module is used for integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, judges edge
Mountain flood risk class belonging to river village is current.
Wherein, the size of overall merit risk is in 0~1 range, and risk class is at least 3 grades.
DPSIR model is applied in mountain flood risk assessment by the present embodiment, carries out again to index each in model
Definition, resets model internal relations, is converted into the model system with mountain flood risk assessment characteristic.
The present embodiment is based on DPSIR model, has chosen the index of a large amount of suitable mountain flood risk assessment, constructs mountain torrents
Hazard Risk Assessment index storehouse, the selection for evaluation index.
The present embodiment introduces surging, pressure-bearing degree, vulnerability degree and stops loss in carrying out village risk assessment processes along the river
Degree sets each criterion index situation of disaster for evaluating Yanhe Village, and being conducive to evaluation, village flood-control construction various aspects are not along the river
The weak spot of village flood control along the river is accurately positioned in foot.
The present embodiment is according to T=W1×P×S+W2Overall merit risk T is calculated in × I × R, has fully considered each
The mutual relationship of factor degree and buffering reduction effect, calculate overall merit risk.
Embodiment three
The present embodiment provides a kind of computer readable storage mediums, are stored thereon with computer program, and the program is processed
The step that the Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as shown in Figure 1 is set in disaster risk evaluating method is realized when device executes.
Example IV
The present embodiment provides a kind of computer equipment, including memory, processor and storage on a memory and can located
The computer program that runs on reason device, the processor are realized as shown in Figure 1 based on DPSIR model when executing described program
Set the step in disaster risk evaluating method for Yanhe Village.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiment of the disclosure can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, the shape of hardware embodiment, software implementation or embodiment combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the disclosure
Formula.Moreover, the disclosure, which can be used, can use storage in the computer that one or more wherein includes computer usable program code
The form for the computer program product implemented on medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage and optical memory etc.).
The disclosure is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present disclosure
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that every one stream in flowchart and/or the block diagram can be realized by computer program instructions
The combination of process and/or box in journey and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computer programs
Instruct the processor of general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices to produce
A raw machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that it includes referring to that instruction stored in the computer readable memory, which generates,
Enable the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in a box or multiple boxes.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that realizing all or part of the process in above-described embodiment method, being can be with
Relevant hardware is instructed to complete by computer program, the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium
In, the program is when being executed, it may include such as the process of the embodiment of above-mentioned each method.Wherein, the storage medium can be magnetic
Dish, CD, read-only memory (Read-Only Memory, ROM) or random access memory (Random
AccessMemory, RAM) etc..
The foregoing is merely preferred embodiment of the present disclosure, are not limited to the disclosure, for the skill of this field
For art personnel, the disclosure can have various modifications and variations.It is all within the spirit and principle of the disclosure, it is made any to repair
Change, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., should be included within the protection scope of the disclosure.
Claims (10)
1. set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model characterized by comprising
DPSIR model is introduced into mountain flood risk assessment, driving force factors in Definition Model, press factors, state because
Son, impact factor and response factor simultaneously assign corresponding mountain flood risk assessment characteristic；
Choosing driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor, accordingly sub- index, building are based on
The index system of DPSIR model forms index storehouse；
The index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor is filtered out from index storehouse, obtains corresponding index value and place is normalized
Reason；
The weight of selected index is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
It the press factors of screening is accordingly normalized into index value, state factor accordingly normalizes index value, impact factor and accordingly return
One change index value and response factor accordingly normalize after index value is multiplied with respective weights respectively it is similar add up, obtain surging P,
Pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model figure, considers the mutual relationship of each level of factor and delay
Reduction fruit is washed off, reduction pressure-bearing degree P is introducedReduction=P × S and reduction vulnerability degree IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+W2IReduction, meter
Calculation obtains integrated risk degree T, wherein W1For weighted value shared by press factors, W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
By integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, the current affiliated mountain flood risk etc. in village along the river is judged
Grade.
2. set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as described in claim 1, feature
Be, driving force factors be push mountain flood development and change direct factor, press factors be by driving force effect after
It is applied directly to the pressure for promoting mountain flood development and change in village along the river, state factor is that Yanhe Village is fallen under pressure
State in which, impact factor are the influence generated after mountain flood, and response factor is to take mountain flood village along the river
Counter-measure and policy.
3. set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as described in claim 1, feature
It is, driving force factors index of correlation includes characteristic period of time rainfall；Press factors index of correlation includes topographic index, flood peak stream
Amount and channel roughness；State factor index of correlation includes River Embankment situation and village with a distance from river；Impact factor index of correlation
Including village status economic level, village's density of population and history flood loss；Response factor index of correlation includes flood control system feelings
Condition, relief goods situation, evacuation route situation and resident take precautions against natural calamities and realize situation.
4. set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as described in claim 1, feature
It is, filters out the relevant index of each factor using linear interpolation and be divided into n grade standard；Index is obtained using following equation
Index value after normalization:
Wherein, X' is index actual value；H is that index assigns score value；S is indicators standard value；X is the numerical value after index normalization, under
Marking t indicates t-th of rule layer；Subscript j is the index value for indicating j-th of index.
5. set disaster risk evaluating method for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as described in claim 1, feature
It is, the size of overall merit risk is in 0~1 range, and risk class is at least 3 grades.
6. set disaster Risk Evaluating System for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model characterized by comprising
Model agrees with module, is used to for DPSIR model being introduced into mountain flood risk assessment, in Definition Model driving force because
Son, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor simultaneously assign corresponding mountain flood risk assessment characteristic；
Index storehouse constructs module, is used to choose driving force factors, press factors, state factor, impact factor and response factor
Corresponding index constructs the index system based on DPSIR model and forms index storehouse；
Index value normalizes module, is used to filter out the index of the relevant preset quantity of each factor from index storehouse, obtains
Corresponding index value is simultaneously normalized；
Index weights computing module is used to calculate the weight of selected index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Factor degree and risk computing module are used to accordingly normalizing the press factors of screening into index value, state factor phase
Should normalize index value, impact factor accordingly normalize index value and response factor accordingly normalize index value respectively with corresponding power
Heavy phase multiplies rear similar cumulative, obtains surging P, pressure-bearing degree S, vulnerability degree I and degree of stopping loss R；In conjunction with DPSIR relationship model figure, examine
Consider the mutual relationship of each level of factor and buffering reduction effect, introduces reduction pressure-bearing degree PReduction=P × S and reduction vulnerability degree
IReduction=I × R；According to T=W1PReduction+W2IReduction, integrated risk degree T is calculated, wherein W1For weighted value shared by press factors,
W2For weighted value shared by impact factor；
Risk class judgment module is used for integrated risk degree compared with default risk level threshold, judges village along the river
Mountain flood risk class belonging to current.
7. set disaster Risk Evaluating System for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as claimed in claim 6, feature
It is, in index value normalization module, filters out the relevant index of each factor using linear interpolation and be divided into n grades
Standard；The index value after index normalization is obtained using following equation:
Wherein, X' is index actual value；H is that index assigns score value；S is indicators standard value；X is the numerical value after index normalization, under
Marking t indicates t-th of rule layer；Subscript j is the index value for indicating j-th of index.
8. set disaster Risk Evaluating System for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model as claimed in claim 6, feature
It is, the size of overall merit risk is in 0~1 range, and risk class is at least 3 grades.
9. a kind of computer readable storage medium, is stored thereon with computer program, which is characterized in that the program is held by processor
Realize that the Yanhe Village according to any one of claims 1 to 5 based on DPSIR model is set disaster risk assessment side when row
Step in method.
10. a kind of computer equipment including memory, processor and stores the meter that can be run on a memory and on a processor
Calculation machine program, which is characterized in that the processor realizes base according to any one of claims 1 to 5 when executing described program
It sets the step in disaster risk evaluating method in the Yanhe Village of DPSIR model.
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