CN104732447A - Method for establishing important power grid infrastructure vulnerability index system - Google Patents
Method for establishing important power grid infrastructure vulnerability index system Download PDFInfo
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- CN104732447A CN104732447A CN201410163965.2A CN201410163965A CN104732447A CN 104732447 A CN104732447 A CN 104732447A CN 201410163965 A CN201410163965 A CN 201410163965A CN 104732447 A CN104732447 A CN 104732447A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
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- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The invention relates to the important power grid infrastructure vulnerability evaluation technology, in particular to a method for establishing an important power grid infrastructure vulnerability index system. The method comprises the first step of determining an evaluation unit and an evaluation object based on evaluation purposes, the second step of representing important power grid infrastructure vulnerabilities on the aspects of pressure, state, response, the third step of establishing an important power grid infrastructure vulnerability evaluation three-grade index system, the fourth step of simplifying the three-grade index system on the basis of the rough set theory, and the fifth step of conducting vulnerability evaluation on important power grid infrastructures through the simplified index system. According to the method, the important power grid infrastructure vulnerability index system with the systematicness and operability is established based on a PSR model. The index system can effectively evaluate the vulnerabilities of the different important power grid infrastructures on specific accident disasters, the comprehensive vulnerabilities of the specific important infrastructures during the accident disasters and the vulnerabilities of different devices in the infrastructures.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability technology, be specifically related to a kind of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method.
Background technology
Along with the expansion of electrical network scale, the development of complex interaction formula bulk power grid, the important pivot transformer station of electrical network, current conversion station, the important infrastructures such as extra high voltage line extensively distribute.Electric power facility majority is exposed to field, and the impact being easily subject to the various external force such as disaster and artificial destruction causes the serious consequence of power system stability destruction, grid disconnection, large-area power-cuts.Meanwhile, electric system, once meet with attack, by causing the chain reaction of the infrastructure such as communication, transport, water supply, Finance and Banking industry, causes the heavy losses of social economy and people's lives and properties.For a long time, China's power system security evaluation mainly calculates for the modeling of electric system own and fault analysis, not enough for fragility research, especially then less with research to electrical network important infrastructure (electrical network important pivot transformer station, current conversion station, extra high voltage line etc.) vulnerability analysis.In electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability technology, the foundation of index system is one of key issue.
The method of current criteria Establishing mainly comprises probe method, target decomposition scheme, multivariate statistics analysis and fault tree analysis etc.
Probe method: be on the basis of studying and extensively collecting related index (individuality carried out to questionnaire, interview or analyzed by the enquiry data that other people collect) by inquiry, comparison and induction is utilized to sort out, and according to evaluation object design evaluatio index system, with the form of questionnaire, designed assessment indicator system is sent the research method of a kind of analyzing influence factor that associated specialist is filled in again, also claim " survey " or " survey ".It require selected by sample representative, must to permeate, the overall situation reflected on this individuality, thus to realize the object of collecting index.Investigation is wanted first from target population, to determine survey population, then determine investigation sample in survey population, finally determines effective sample.The maximum advantage of this method is exactly simply, easily operate, and investigation method can collect the data being difficult to obtain from directly observe, but shortcoming is artificial subjective elements may show very strong.
Delphi method: be that Delphi method both can be used for prediction with the established procedure expert survey of ancient Greek's city Delphi name, also may be used for evaluating.The ultimate principle of the method investigates the form of seeking the opinion of to raise a series of problems to selected expert, and gather arrangement expert opinion, often completes the process once putd question to and answer and be called and take turns.By on take turns the information such as the consistent degree of consulting gained suggestion and the different viewpoints of every expert, anonymity feeds back to each expert, again consultation.So repeated multiple times (be generally 3 ~ 4 take turns), makes to reach unanimity.Take turns the expert opinion of seeking the opinion of and obtaining by last, be combined into the consensus of expert group, influence factor list can be obtained.Delphi method belongs to probe method one, and advantage is that comprehensive multidigit takes turns expert opinion more, reduces artificial subjective factor, but process more complicated, spended time is longer.
Target decomposition scheme: be by building assessment indicator system to the target of study subject or task concrete analysis.Be generally from overall goal to the decomposition of research object, successively decompose according to the formation of research contents, until the index of decomposing out reaches the requirement that can survey.This method is a kind of top-down systematic analysis method in fact, as long as advantage is hard objectives, by decomposition deep layer by layer, can obtain multi-level assessment indicator system, but shortcoming is very high to the composite request of analyst.
Multivariate statistics analysis: be by by principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, a kind of modification method that qualitative analysis and quantitative test combine, it can find out critical index from the preliminary numerous indexs set up.Multivariate statistics solves multiple-factor problem, processes a kind of effective ways of high-dimensional data.Its main advantage has logic and statistical significance, scientific strong; Comprehensively can simplify key element, solve the contact between the ownership of key element, key element and be subordinate to the problems such as precedence; The assessment indicator system of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis can be set up; Can a large amount of data of process and information.
Electrical network important infrastructure fragility refers to that electrical network important infrastructure is under the External force interference of the accident such as disaster and artificial destruction, infrastructure body damages or fault, cause all or part of afunction of system, and cause the possibility of certain loss, degree and recovery capability thereof.Fragility for electrical network important infrastructure is orientated as " disabler ", and the aspect analyses such as the pressure that disabler needs cause from human and environment important infrastructure, facility oneself state and gerentocratic response, and set forth fragility influence factor from " emergency response after external behavior+electrical network infrastructure oneself state → systemic-function inefficacy " this process emphatically.Therefore based on the definition of electrical network important infrastructure fragility and positioning analysis, the method adopting traditional index system to set up effectively can not consider the logical relation between index.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiencies in the prior art, the object of this invention is to provide a kind of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method, environment and ecology assessment indicator system defining method (PSR model) is incorporated in electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability by the method.Set up electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder system by the method, can truly, the reflection of system is evaluated the interaction between object element and the process that influences each other.
The object of the invention is to adopt following technical proposals to realize:
The invention provides a kind of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method, its improvements are, described method comprises the steps:
Step 1: based on evaluation object determination evaluation unit and evaluation object;
Step 2: characterize electrical network important infrastructure fragility from pressure-state-response three aspect;
Step 3: set up electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability three grades of index systems;
Step 4: yojan is carried out to three grades of index systems based on rough set theory;
Step 5: utilize the index system after yojan to carry out Evaluation of vulnerability to electrical network important infrastructure.
Further, in described step 1, evaluation unit is electrical network important infrastructure and load-center substation, current conversion station and ultra-high-tension power transmission line, and the installations and facilities in evaluation unit are evaluation object.
Further, in described step 2, pressure: characterized by disaster and artificial destruction two aspect; State: by the state of the art of primary equipment in evaluation unit, operational defect and fault trip rate parameter characterization; Response: by the state of the art of secondary device in evaluation unit, the self-protection functional parameter that restores electricity characterizes; Primary equipment and secondary device include load-center substation, current conversion station and ultra-high-tension power transmission line.
Further, in described step 3, first class index, as destination layer, comprising: pressure first class index comprises earthquake, disaster caused by a windstorm, sleet and snow ice, flood, landslide, thunderbolt, forest fire, pollution flashover, deliberately destruction and artificial damage ten kinds of Accidents Disasters types; State first class index refers to the primary equipment of load-center substation, current conversion station and transmission line of electricity; Response first class index refers to transformer station, the secondary device of current conversion station and transmission line of electricity and emergency response measure (emergency response measure is as safeguard, emergency command etc.);
Two-level index, as rule layer, comprising: pressure two-level index comprises Static State Index and dynamic indicator; State two-level index comprises state of the art, operational defect and fault trip rate; Response two-level index comprises state of the art and restores electricity;
Three grades of indexs, as solution layer, are refinement and the measurement indexs of two-level index, are the indexs carrying out quantizing, and by three grades of index assignment, obtain the exponential quantity of pressure, state and response, and for weighing the fragility of evaluation unit and evaluation object.
Further, in described step 4, consider the easy availability of index raw data and the operability in specific implementation process, based on rough set theory, yojan (extract key index carry out yojan according to history accident case, expert opinion) is carried out to electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability index.
Further, in described step 5, obtain the index system that electrical network important infrastructure fragility is evaluated; When the fragility of electrical network important infrastructure is evaluated, electrical network important infrastructure fragility is divided into 7 classes: pressure-type fragility P; State type fragility S; Response type fragility R; Pressure-state type fragility PS; Pressure-response type fragility PR; State-response type fragility SR and pressure-state-response type fragility PSR.
Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect that the present invention reaches is:
1, method provided by the invention follow comprehensively to combine with representativeness, level combines with systematicness, qualitative analysis is combined with quantitative test, based on index system establishment principle quantitatively, the index system of foundation has following characteristics;
Systematicness: because the structure thinking of PSR model considers interaction between " people " and " environment " and influences each other, therefore, the assessment indicator system set up by PSR model more can reflect and is evaluated object in the systematicness affecting fragility factor.
Operability: PSR model sets up assessment indicator system according to being evaluated " behavior " that show object from " human factor is on the impact of fragility " to " feedback because of after the risk generation that fragility causes " this process, this Constructed wetlands and people's problem analysis, the thinking of dealing with problems are consistent, and therefore operability is very strong.
Easy availability: at present both at home and abroad also not about the System of Comprehensive Evaluation research of electrical network infrastructure fragility, therefore, will classify to the influence factor recognized according to Constructed wetlands for PSR model, the Data Source of indices key element can be obtained by additive method.
2, the present invention is based on PSR model and set up a set of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder system with systematicness, operability.This index system can the different electrical network important infrastructure of effective evaluation to the fragility of particular incident disaster and specific important infrastructure the comprehensive fragility in Accidents Disasters process and the fragility of the inner distinct device of infrastructure.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the electrical network important infrastructure index system destination layer based on PSR model (P-S-R model) provided by the invention;
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method provided by the invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.
The process flow diagram of electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method provided by the invention as shown in Figure 2, comprises the steps:
Step 1: based on evaluation object determination evaluation unit and evaluation object: evaluation unit is electrical network important infrastructure and load-center substation, current conversion station and ultra-high-tension power transmission line.In evaluation unit, concrete installations and facilities are evaluation object.
Step 2: characterize electrical network important infrastructure fragility (as Fig. 1) from pressure-state-response three aspect:
Pressure: characterized by disaster and artificial destruction two aspect;
State: by state of the art, the parameter characterization such as operational defect and fault trip rate of primary equipment in evaluation unit;
Response: by the state of the art of secondary device in evaluation unit, restore electricity wait self-protection functional parameter sign.
Step 3: set up electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability three grades of index systems:
First class index (destination layer): pressure first class index comprises earthquake, disaster caused by a windstorm, sleet and snow ice, flood, landslide, thunderbolt, forest fire, pollution flashover, deliberately destruction and artificial damage ten kinds of Accidents Disasters types; State first class index refers to the primary equipment of transformer station, current conversion station and transmission line of electricity; Response first class index refers to transformer station, the secondary device of current conversion station and transmission line of electricity and emergency response measure (emergency response measure is as safeguard, emergency command etc.)
Two-level index (rule layer): pressure two-level index is mainly divided into Static State Index and dynamic indicator; State two-level index mainly comprises state of the art, operational defect and fault trip rate; Response two-level index mainly comprises state of the art, restores electricity;
Three grades of indexs (solution layer): three grades of indexs are refinement and the measurement index of two-level index, it is the index can carrying out quantizing, by to three grades of index assignment, the exponential quantity of pressure, state and response can be obtained, and for weighing the fragility of research unit and research object.
Step 4: carry out yojan to three grades of index systems based on rough set theory: consider the easy availability of index raw data and the operability in specific implementation process, carries out yojan (extract key index carry out yojan according to history accident case, expert opinion) based on rough set theory to electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability index.
Step 5: utilize the index system after yojan to carry out Evaluation of vulnerability: finally obtain the index system that electrical network important infrastructure fragility is evaluated, in table 1, table 2 and table 3.When utilizing the fragility of index system to electrical network important infrastructure to evaluate, electrical network important infrastructure fragility is divided into 7 classes: pressure-type fragility P; State type fragility S; Response type fragility R; Pressure-state type fragility PS; Pressure-response type fragility PR; State-response type fragility SR and pressure-state-response type fragility PSR.
Table 1 electrical network important infrastructure fragility three grades of index systems (pressure)
Table 2 electrical network important infrastructure fragility three grades of index systems (state)
Table 3 electrical network important infrastructure fragility three grades of index systems (response)
Finally should be noted that: above embodiment is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme of the present invention is not intended to limit, although with reference to above-described embodiment to invention has been detailed description, those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that: still can modify to the specific embodiment of the present invention or equivalent replacement, and not departing from any amendment of spirit and scope of the invention or equivalent replacement, it all should be encompassed in the middle of right of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. an electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method, is characterized in that, described method comprises the steps:
Step 1: based on evaluation object determination evaluation unit and evaluation object;
Step 2: characterize electrical network important infrastructure fragility from pressure-state-response three aspect;
Step 3: set up electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability three grades of index systems;
Step 4: yojan is carried out to three grades of index systems based on rough set theory;
Step 5: utilize the index system after yojan to carry out Evaluation of vulnerability to electrical network important infrastructure.
2. electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step 1, evaluation unit is electrical network important infrastructure and load-center substation, current conversion station and ultra-high-tension power transmission line, and the installations and facilities in evaluation unit are evaluation object.
3. electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 2, and pressure: characterized by disaster and artificial destruction two aspect; State: by the state of the art of primary equipment in evaluation unit, operational defect and fault trip rate parameter characterization; Response: by the state of the art of secondary device in evaluation unit, the self-protection functional parameter that restores electricity characterizes; Primary equipment and secondary device include load-center substation, current conversion station and ultra-high-tension power transmission line.
4. electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step 3, first class index, as destination layer, comprising: pressure first class index comprises earthquake, disaster caused by a windstorm, sleet and snow ice, flood, landslide, thunderbolt, forest fire, pollution flashover, deliberately destruction and artificial damage ten kinds of Accidents Disasters types; State first class index refers to the primary equipment of load-center substation, current conversion station and transmission line of electricity; Response first class index refers to transformer station, the secondary device of current conversion station and transmission line of electricity and emergency response measure;
Two-level index, as rule layer, comprising: pressure two-level index comprises Static State Index and dynamic indicator; State two-level index comprises state of the art, operational defect and fault trip rate; Response two-level index comprises state of the art and restores electricity;
Three grades of indexs, as solution layer, are refinement and the measurement indexs of two-level index, are the indexs carrying out quantizing, and by three grades of index assignment, obtain the exponential quantity of pressure, state and response, and for weighing the fragility of evaluation unit and evaluation object.
5. electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step 4, consider the easy availability of index raw data and the operability in specific implementation process, based on rough set theory, yojan is carried out to electrical network important infrastructure Evaluation of vulnerability index.
6. electrical network important infrastructure vulnerability inder Establishing method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step 5, obtain the index system evaluated electrical network important infrastructure fragility; When the fragility of electrical network important infrastructure is evaluated, electrical network important infrastructure fragility is divided into 7 classes: pressure-type fragility P; State type fragility S; Response type fragility R; Pressure-state type fragility PS; Pressure-response type fragility PR; State-response type fragility SR and pressure-state-response type fragility PSR.
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| CN110298577A (en) * | 2019-06-21 | 2019-10-01 | 济南大学 | Set disaster risk evaluating method and system for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model |
| CN113052503A (en) * | 2021-04-29 | 2021-06-29 | 北京大学 | Forest fire risk assessment method for forest city cross-connection area based on PSR model |
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| CN103646352A (en) * | 2013-11-14 | 2014-03-19 | 国网上海市电力公司 | Electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on frangibility |
| CN103700030A (en) * | 2013-12-16 | 2014-04-02 | 国家电网公司 | Grey rough set-based power grid construction project post-evaluation index weight assignment method |
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| CN103646352A (en) * | 2013-11-14 | 2014-03-19 | 国网上海市电力公司 | Electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on frangibility |
| CN103617456A (en) * | 2013-12-04 | 2014-03-05 | 东北大学 | Operating index optimization method in beneficiation process |
| CN103700030A (en) * | 2013-12-16 | 2014-04-02 | 国家电网公司 | Grey rough set-based power grid construction project post-evaluation index weight assignment method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110298577A (en) * | 2019-06-21 | 2019-10-01 | 济南大学 | Set disaster risk evaluating method and system for a kind of Yanhe Village based on DPSIR model |
| CN110298577B (en) * | 2019-06-21 | 2022-04-05 | 济南大学 | Method and system for evaluating mountain torrent disaster risk along rivers and villages based on DPSIR model |
| CN113052503A (en) * | 2021-04-29 | 2021-06-29 | 北京大学 | Forest fire risk assessment method for forest city cross-connection area based on PSR model |
| CN113052503B (en) * | 2021-04-29 | 2023-10-24 | 北京大学 | Forest fire risk assessment method for forest urban junction area based on PSR model |
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