CN103646352A - Electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on frangibility - Google Patents
Electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on frangibility Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on frangibility. The method includes the following steps: step1: setting up an evaluation index system of an electric-power emergency system; step2: calculating the weight of evaluation indexes; step3: calculating the evaluation result; step4: analyzing the evaluation result. The electric-power emergency system evaluation model construction method based on the frangibility enables an electric-power emergency system evaluation method to be quantized so that the method is different from traditional obscure subjective evaluation methods and capable of grasping weak points and weak links which exist in the system from a macroscopic angle. Through forming the electric-power emergency evaluation index system and using a comprehensive index method, a frangibility result of an inspected electric-power emergency system is obtained.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of construction method of power emergency System Evaluation, be specifically related to a kind of construction method of the power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility.
Background technology
Power emergency system is the system of organizing and directing of concrete regulation electric power accident contingency management work and the prevention of responsibility and accident and early warning mechanism, treatment procedures, emergency guarantee measure and recover the system with Reconstruction Measure etc. afterwards.The national Emergency System construction of China, core can be summarized as " a case three systems ".For concrete power emergency system, " a case " wherein just refers to the accident emergency preplan system of the Grading And Zoning that electric system is formulated." three systems " refers to organization, operating mechanism and the Legal Basis among power emergency system.
System evaluation is exactly to system newly developed or reconstruction, according to predetermined aims of systems, by the method for systematic analysis, from aspects such as technology, economy, society, ecologies, the various schemes of system are evaluated and selected, to determine optimum or suboptimum or satisfied system schema.Because every country social system, resources supplIes, Economic Development Status, level of education and national tradition etc. are different, so there is no unified system evaluation pattern.Assessment item, evaluation criterion and evaluation method are also not quite similar.
Country is upper many about the method for administrative evaluation at present, mainly to be divided into two kinds of research methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis, qualitative evaluation method is by means of to the experience of things, knowledge, observation and the understanding to the rule of development, a kind of method of scientifically analyzing, judging.With municipal public safety, be evaluated as example, can jointly form expert group by expert, evaluation personnel, managerial personnel and the scientific and technical personnel of different field, for the danger existing in municipal public safety system, adverse factor, its danger is judged qualitatively, and technically, countermeasures proposed in management, in education, controlled, reached the object of security of system.The more qualitative safe evaluation method of application has " safety checklist ", " event tree analysis ", " ETA ", " risk analysis in advance ", " failure mode and effect analysis ", " dangerous operability research " etc. system at present.
Quantitative evaluation method is according to statistics, detects the data information of data, similar and similar system, and according to relevant standard, the method construct mathematical model of applied science is carried out a kind of method of quantitative evaluation.With quantitation capabilities evaluation method comprise two types: one type is that to take reliability, security be basis; first find out the hidden danger in system and obtain kind and the extent of injury thereof of its loss percentage, adverse factor; and then compare, quantize with the related standards of national regulation, as " analysis of accident number ", " event number analysis ", " Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method ", " analytical hierarchy process " etc.; Another kind of type is to take material coefficient as basis, take the risk stratification method of comprehensive evaluation, as covered " ICI/MOND fire, the blast toxicity index method " of moral portion, " six terrace works " of Japan work province, " unit hazard index quick sort " etc. in " fire, the explosion danger index method " of The Dow Chemical Co. (US) 2030 Dow Center, Abbott Road, Midland, Michigan 48640,, Britain ICI Imperial Chemical Industries.
At present, no matter qualitative evaluating method or method for quantitatively evaluating, prerequisite is to be all based upon in the assessment indicator system of a set of scientific and reasonable load research object.Therefore,, according to the singularity of power emergency, the power emergency assessment indicator system of formulating detailed science is a difficult problem urgently to be resolved hurrily.
Fragility is the mankind and the intrinsic characteristic of facing the wind danger, and it is multifactor, multidisciplinary, trans-departmental and dynamic, it is defined as to the function of exposure here, on the susceptibility of impact and whether reply or the ability that adapts to.It is that harm exposes that exposure is named, and as ten droughts, conflict or extreme price volalility etc., Ye Jiaoyishi social economy, system and environmental aspect expose.These affect size and only depend on exposure, also depend on the susceptibility (as basin, island, family, village, city or country) of particular exposed unit and the ability of reply or adaptation.
Vulnerability analysis is widely used in the work of numerous international organizations and about eradicating poverty, in the research project of sustainable development and humanitarian aid tissue, these tissues comprise: United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, the Red Cross, the Red Crescent Society, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Bank.Work that they carry out helps to determine cries and can, because of environment and/or artificial variation affected place, the day for human beings and the ecosystem, analyze potential former prisoner.It also cries for just how to reduce fragility and to tackle the relevant suggestion of variation proposition policy for decision maker.
The concept of fragility is the important extension of traditional venture analysis, and disaster has mainly been emphasized in venture analysis.Fragility is own through becoming the main aspect of food security hidden danger, poverty, livelihood and weather Changeement.Early stage research trend is in regarding fragile crowd and society as environment and the risk victim of social economy, and crowd's prediction that degree of susceptibility is different and the ability of reply risk are more and more emphasized in nearest work, and the system ability that changes of restoring force and reply.
Oneself is applied to supplementary restoring force concept analyzing system and is occurring to return to the ability with reference to situation after disturbance, although and there is disturbance, this system still keeps the ability of certain 26S Proteasome Structure and Function.If disturbance surpasses this restoring force, just cry and can collapse.
In the problems of world today's environment and development, fragility is one of focal issue.For many years, naturalist and humanities worker are paying close attention to the basic problem of a series of fragility always.Nearest decades, the proposition of the new problem such as global environmental change, climate change, makes the research of fragility problem also highlight important.The United Nations's IDNDR framework thinks, vulnerability assessment is to determine infringement that extreme Disaster Event causes and the instrument of human loss, and it has very important effect to planning to build the scheme of disaster reduction of structure and project.Meanwhile, about the research field of fragility problem, also constantly expand.
Power emergency system is carried out to vulnerability assessment, first exactly can and improve and play certain reference significance the structure of power emergency system, and vulnerability assessment result that can articulated system can carry out the inner local or disaster risk assessment on a large scale of whole electric system, and macroscopic view for power emergency System Construction and social construction provide the assessment of instructing and quantizing.
Fragility is assessed and can be had diverse ways, be probably divided into following several:
(1) composite index law: set up assessment indicator system from aspects such as fragility performance characteristic, occurrence causes, utilize statistical method or other mathematical methods comprehensively to become vulnerability index, the relative size that represents evaluation unit fragility degree, be relatively commonly use one in method.
(2) map overlay method: according to GIS, fragility inscape is carried out to the stacked of figure interlayer, or stacked carrying out for the fragility correlogram layers of different disturbances, vulnerability assessment is being carried out in subregion.
(3) fragility function model evaluation assessment: the understanding based on to fragility, first each inscape of fragility is carried out to quantitative evaluation, then the interaction between fragility forms, sets up Evaluation of vulnerability model.
(4) Fuzzy Matter-element Evaluation Method: by calculating each survey region and a selected relative fragility of differentiating each survey region with reference to the similarity degree of state (fragility is the highest or minimum).The method need to be based upon in the result of existing vulnerability assessment.
(5) hazard degree analysis: the method is calculated the Euclidean distance between each variable vector value under each variable present situation vector value of research and state of nature, thinks that the larger system of distance is more fragile, more easily makes the 26S Proteasome Structure and Function of system undergo a complete transformation.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of construction method of the power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility, power emergency system evaluation method is quantized,, from macroscopic perspective general control system, there is which thin spot and weak link in fuzzy subjective evaluation method different from the past.By forming power emergency assessment indicator system, and the fragility result of the power emergency system of using composite index law to calculate to be investigated.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions: a kind of construction method of the power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility, be characterized in, and comprise following steps:
Step 1, set up the assessment indicator system of power emergency system;
The weight of step 2, calculating evaluation index;
Step 3, calculating evaluation result;
Step 4, evaluation result is analyzed.
Above-mentioned step 1 comprises following steps:
Step 1.1, set up one-level evaluation index;
Step 1.2, set up the secondary evaluation index of each one-level evaluation index;
Above-mentioned one-level evaluation index is summed up after comprising Fundamentals of Law, organizational structure, disaster prevention and early warning, calamity emergency reaction, material guarantee, communication support, Police Command Center, calamity, data publish;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index Fundamentals of Law comprise is state's laws rules quantity, local laws and regulations quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index organizational structure comprises is for setting up emergency command mechanism, emergency cooperative department quantity, power specialty troop reserve ratio, power specialty personnel training frequency, Emergency System full-time staff's quantity, emergent full-time staff's frequency of training, volunteer's quantity, Emergency System upgrading administration of research activities;
The preparation that the ripe rehearsal frequency of the quantity that the secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index disaster prevention and early warning comprise is emergency preplan, emergency preplan, fuel-burning power plant deposit that coal number of days, important unit emergency power pack are implemented, citizen's emergency training number of times, knowledge for coping with emergencies popularity rate, the efficiency of emergency cooperative monitoring, electrical network disaster monitoring ability, dangerous matter sources management go deep into degree, Power Grid Black starts;
The secondary evaluation index that the reaction of above-mentioned one-level evaluation index calamity emergency comprises is accident maintenance personnel amount, emergency resources distribution rationality, Disaster Assessment system start-up time, start calamity emergency system time, rescue department reaches the spot the time;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index material guarantee comprises is financial input number percent, emergency route degree of protection, emergency management and rescue car quantity, emergency power generation floodlight apparatus quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index communication support comprises is that communication has situation, interlock exchanges data bandwidth, emergency data storage capacity, emergency communication call capacity, the supplementary updating ability of database;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index Police Command Center comprises is reaction time, the complete degree of center basic environment after information receives, collect multi-aspect information ability, aid decision making software function is perfect, center dispatching of power netwoks coverage;
After above-mentioned one-level evaluation index calamity, sum up the secondary evaluation index comprise and be the having or not of case backup, summary of experience, prediction scheme revision frequency, laws and regulations modification and perfection ability;
The secondary evaluation index that above-mentioned one-level evaluation index data publish comprises is burst information passing time, government department analysis time, set up interim directorate time, the external issuing time of accident, the external publication channel of accident, area of effective coverage releases news.
Above-mentioned step 2 comprises following steps:
Step 2.1, to first class index assignment, determine the weight of one-level evaluation index;
Step 2.2, to two-level index assignment, determine the weight of secondary evaluation index;
Step 2.3, by the weight stack of the weight of one-level evaluation index and secondary evaluation index, obtain the weighted value of power emergency system.
In above-mentioned step 3, calculate evaluation result and apply following formula:
In formula, V represents result, and W represents every two-level index weight, and I represents the parameter of assignment.
The construction method of a kind of power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility of the present invention compared with prior art has the following advantages: power emergency system is quantized, from macroscopic perspective general control system, there is which thin spot and weak link, and the fragility result of the power emergency system of using composite index law to calculate to be investigated.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the construction method of a kind of power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, by describing a preferably specific embodiment in detail, the present invention is further elaborated.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of construction method of the power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility, comprises following steps:
Step 1, set up the assessment indicator system of power emergency system;
Step 1.1, set up one-level evaluation index;
Step 1.2, set up the secondary evaluation index (referring to table 1) of each one-level evaluation index;
One-level evaluation index is summed up after comprising Fundamentals of Law, organizational structure, disaster prevention and early warning, calamity emergency reaction, material guarantee, communication support, Police Command Center, calamity, data publish;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index Fundamentals of Law comprise is state's laws rules quantity, local laws and regulations quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index organizational structure comprises is for setting up emergency command mechanism, emergency cooperative department quantity, power specialty troop reserve ratio, power specialty personnel training frequency, Emergency System full-time staff's quantity, emergent full-time staff's frequency of training, volunteer's quantity, Emergency System upgrading administration of research activities;
The preparation that the ripe rehearsal frequency of the quantity that the secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index disaster prevention and early warning comprise is emergency preplan, emergency preplan, fuel-burning power plant deposit that coal number of days, important unit emergency power pack are implemented, citizen's emergency training number of times, knowledge for coping with emergencies popularity rate, the efficiency of emergency cooperative monitoring, electrical network disaster monitoring ability, dangerous matter sources management go deep into degree, Power Grid Black starts;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index calamity emergency reaction comprises is accident maintenance personnel amount, emergency resources distribution rationality, Disaster Assessment system start-up time, start calamity emergency system time, rescue department reaches the spot the time;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index material guarantee comprises is financial input number percent, emergency route degree of protection, emergency management and rescue car quantity, emergency power generation floodlight apparatus quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index communication support comprises is that communication has situation, interlock exchanges data bandwidth, emergency data storage capacity, emergency communication call capacity, the supplementary updating ability of database;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index Police Command Center comprises is reaction time, the complete degree of center basic environment after information receives, collect multi-aspect information ability, aid decision making software function is perfect, center dispatching of power netwoks coverage;
After one-level evaluation index calamity, sum up the secondary evaluation index comprise and be the having or not of case backup, summary of experience, prediction scheme revision frequency, laws and regulations modification and perfection ability;
The secondary evaluation index that one-level evaluation index data publish comprises is burst information passing time, government department analysis time, set up interim directorate time, the external issuing time of accident, the external publication channel of accident, area of effective coverage releases news.
The weight of step 2, calculating evaluation index;
Step 2.1, to first class index assignment, determine the weight of one-level evaluation index, adopt analytical hierarchy process to determine index weights, according to existing, the index weights of system architecture is distributed, determine that the weight of summary and data publish is respectively after 9 ground floor index Fundamentals of Law, organizational structure, disaster prevention and early warning, calamity emergency reaction, matenal support, communication support, Police Command Center, calamity: 0.087,0.110,0.204,0.153,0.087,0.093,0.10,0.057 and 0.108;
Step 2.2, to two-level index assignment, determine the weight of secondary evaluation index, adopt equal equal weight;
Step 2.3, by the weight stack of the weight of one-level evaluation index and secondary evaluation index, obtain the weighted value of power emergency system.
For the assignment of index wherein, concrete grammar is as follows:
State's laws rules quantity: because this index is little with local Relationship Comparison, for this index of concrete place in fact value be also the same certainly, it only relates to home and overseas in a comparison aspect this, and border be wherein difficult to be determined and to be adopted in therefore calculating according to generality 0.12 to calculate for numerical value.
Set up having or not of emergency command mechanism, case backup and summary of experience: if be provided with this mechanism, peek value is 0, otherwise gets 1.
Power specialty troop reserve ratio: the per mille that adopts ratio to calculate above extra large permanent resident population is benchmark, and computing formula is similar to local laws and regulations quantity.
The frequency of power specialty personnel training frequency and prediction scheme revision: it is ideal value that this numerical value be take above annually, and computing formula is similar to local laws and regulations quantity.
Emergent full-time staff's ratio: employing permanent resident population's ten thousand/be calculating standard, specific algorithm is similar to local laws and regulations quantity.If concrete data cannot obtain, adopt power specialty personnel's quantity.
Emergent full-time member's frequency of training: it is reference value that this numerical value be take more than 1 year twice, and computing formula is similar to local laws and regulations quantity.
Volunteer's quantity: using Shanghai City permanent resident population 1% as reference value, namely as 0.5 reference.Adopt semi-quantitative method to determine occurrence.
Emergency System upgrading research and management: be provided with related fields and manage this index and get 0, otherwise be 1 not consider that it specifically carries out efficiency aspect and really delimit.
Emergency preplan quantity.For large-scale city, take 500 as lower limit, Beijing is ideal value 950 of establishment during the course of the Olympic Games, specific algorithm is identical with emergency cooperative department quantity.
The rehearsal frequency of emergency preplan: take is benchmark annually, and computing method are identical with local laws and regulations.
Coal number of days is deposited in fuel-burning power plant: take 3 days as the lowest limit, what require during the course of the Olympic Games 11 days is ideal value, calculates with emergency cooperative department quantity similar.
Important unit emergency power pack is implemented: the subjective certitude index of carrying out according to associated dynamic report.
Citizen's emergency training: take is benchmark annually, calculates identical with local laws and regulations.
The efficiency of emergency cooperative monitoring: take department sees that early warning harmony is as reference, judges according to inter-sectional interlock multidate information.
Degree is goed deep in the management of electrical network dangerous matter sources: this part involvement aspect is more vast, and reference section expert and scholar's current understanding provides concrete numerical value.
The preparation that Power Grid Black starts: consider this index to formulate the rehearsal information summary of the perfect black-start scheme of electrical network and scheme.
Accident maintenance personnel amount, emergency management and rescue car quantity and emergency power generation floodlight apparatus quantity: take 4600 people during the course of the Olympic Games, 80 and 46 is reference data, by local laws and regulations quantitative approach, calculates.
Finance drop into number percent: with reference to 2/1000ths benchmark, the denominator of calculating can be Shanghai City financial budget or Utilities Electric Co.'s internal budget.
Emergency resources distribution rationality: provide subjective determination value according to existing resource deposit point and the distribution plan of key area, city.
The start-up time of Disaster Assessment system, start accept calamity emergency system time, rescue department time of arrival, information after reaction time, emergency information passing time, government department analysis time, set up interim directorate time and the external issuing time of accident: its account form is identical with knowledge for coping with emergencies popularity rate.
Emergency route degree of protection: be prepared as benchmark and provide decision content to announce the coordination of Yu city traffic department.
The situation that has of communication and the external publication channel of accident: take four kinds as best, determine this index occurrence for lower limit for two kinds.
Interlock exchanges data bandwidth, emergency data storage capacity and emergency communication call capacity: these indexs are all usingd current data as benchmark, adopt ratio to converse its concrete numerical value.
Upgrade in time ability, the complete degree of command centre's basic environment, the ability of collecting many-sided communication capacity, laws and regulations modification and perfection and aid decision making software function of database is perfect: according to its relevant configuration, provide a decision content.
The coverage of center dispatching of power netwoks and the area of effective coverage releasing news: all using Shanghai City as denominator, with ratio, determine its index value.
Below by calculating the weight table of rear each index of acquisition:
The index of table 1 vulnerability assessment
Step 3, calculating evaluation result, apply following formula:
In formula, V represents result, and W represents every two-level index weight, and I represents the parameter of assignment.；
Step 4, evaluation result is analyzed.
The concrete grammar of interpretation of result: acquired results is compared with the average fragility level of society different cities society, politics, the Conjoint Analysis of economic dispatch department being obtained according to current employing fragility.The average fragility level of present society is more than 0.1, if therefore acquired results is less than 0.09, show to be investigated power emergency system fragility level be lower, power emergency ability is higher than the average emergency capability of society, and power emergency system is integral framework relatively strong, that have powerful accident contingency management ability; If acquired results higher than 0.09 lower than 0.13, show to be investigated power emergency system fragility level in average level, on average emergency capability is similar with society for power emergency ability, and power emergency system is relatively healthy, to have certain accident contingency management ability integral framework; If acquired results higher than 0.13, show to be investigated power emergency system fragility level higher, power emergency ability, lower than the average emergency capability of society, is needed development and improvement power emergency System Construction badly.
Although content of the present invention has been done detailed introduction by above preferred embodiment, will be appreciated that above-mentioned description should not be considered to limitation of the present invention.Those skilled in the art, read after foregoing, for multiple modification of the present invention with to substitute will be all apparent.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be limited to the appended claims.
Claims (4)
1. a construction method for the power emergency System Evaluation based on fragility, is characterized in that, comprises following steps:
Step 1, set up the assessment indicator system of power emergency system;
The weight of step 2, calculating evaluation index;
Step 3, calculating evaluation result;
Step 4, evaluation result is analyzed.
2. construction method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 1 comprises following steps:
Step 1.1, set up one-level evaluation index;
Step 1.2, set up the secondary evaluation index of each one-level evaluation index;
Described one-level evaluation index is summed up after comprising Fundamentals of Law, organizational structure, disaster prevention and early warning, calamity emergency reaction, material guarantee, communication support, Police Command Center, calamity, data publish;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index Fundamentals of Law comprise is state's laws rules quantity, local laws and regulations quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index organizational structure comprises is for setting up emergency command mechanism, emergency cooperative department quantity, power specialty troop reserve ratio, power specialty personnel training frequency, Emergency System full-time staff's quantity, emergent full-time staff's frequency of training, volunteer's quantity, Emergency System upgrading administration of research activities;
The preparation that the ripe rehearsal frequency of the quantity that the secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index disaster prevention and early warning comprise is emergency preplan, emergency preplan, fuel-burning power plant deposit that coal number of days, important unit emergency power pack are implemented, citizen's emergency training number of times, knowledge for coping with emergencies popularity rate, the efficiency of emergency cooperative monitoring, electrical network disaster monitoring ability, dangerous matter sources management go deep into degree, Power Grid Black starts;
The secondary evaluation index that the reaction of described one-level evaluation index calamity emergency comprises is accident maintenance personnel amount, emergency resources distribution rationality, Disaster Assessment system start-up time, start calamity emergency system time, rescue department reaches the spot the time;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index material guarantee comprises is financial input number percent, emergency route degree of protection, emergency management and rescue car quantity, emergency power generation floodlight apparatus quantity;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index communication support comprises is that communication has situation, interlock exchanges data bandwidth, emergency data storage capacity, emergency communication call capacity, the supplementary updating ability of database;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index Police Command Center comprises is reaction time, the complete degree of center basic environment after information receives, collect multi-aspect information ability, aid decision making software function is perfect, center dispatching of power netwoks coverage;
After described one-level evaluation index calamity, sum up the secondary evaluation index comprise and be the having or not of case backup, summary of experience, prediction scheme revision frequency, laws and regulations modification and perfection ability;
The secondary evaluation index that described one-level evaluation index data publish comprises is burst information passing time, government department analysis time, set up interim directorate time, the external issuing time of accident, the external publication channel of accident, area of effective coverage releases news.
3. construction method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 2 comprises following steps:
Step 2.1, to first class index assignment, determine the weight of one-level evaluation index;
Step 2.2, to two-level index assignment, determine the weight of secondary evaluation index;
Step 2.3, by the weight stack of the weight of one-level evaluation index and secondary evaluation index, obtain the weighted value of power emergency system.
4. construction method as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, calculates evaluation result and apply following formula in described step 3:
In formula, V represents result, and W represents every two-level index weight, and I represents the parameter of assignment.
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