CN104881818A - Method for establishing transmission grid safety risk comprehensive evaluation index system - Google Patents
Method for establishing transmission grid safety risk comprehensive evaluation index system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for establishing a transmission grid safety risk comprehensive evaluation index system. The method comprises the steps of establishing an index system hierarchical structure which sequentially comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer; dividing indexes in the target layer into a transmission grid safety risk index and a transmission grid social benefits index; establishing evaluation indexes for the transmission grid safety risk index, which comprise a transmission and distribution equipment risk event index, a transmission grid structural risk index, a transmission power supply risk index and an extreme event risk index; establishing a clean utilization energy index and a continuous power supply social benefits index; establishing evaluation indexes respectively for the transmission and distribution equipment risk index, the transmission grid structural risk index, the transmission power supply risk index and the extreme event risk index, and calculating the transmission grid safety risk index; establishing evaluation indexes respectively for the clean utilization energy index and the continuous power supply social benefits index, and calculating the transmission grid social benefits index; and calculating a transmission grid safety risk comprehensive evaluation index.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the generating of electric power, power transformation or field of power distribution, particularly relate to a kind of method for building up of index system of power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation.
Background technology
The demand of future society to electric power is growing, energy crisis and environment form more and more severeer.For rationally, optimize the configuration of resources, solve the some problem existed in China's energy and electric power development, the transformation of grid company power network development mode and set up the developing goal of building world class electrical network imperative.
Following electrical transmission network systems high complexity, the link comprised is various, and subsystems intercouples, and in order to the power transmission network planned better and to build with strong intelligent grid be characteristic, is necessary to carry out comprehensive evaluation to the safety of power transmission network and benefit.
But for the benefit of electrical network, the research range of prior art is narrow, concentrates on the benefit of electrical network self; And after accessing on a large scale for new forms of energy, the evaluation of the environmental benefit of power transmission network, does not have comparatively ripe method; Further, owing to lacking the overall evaluation system to security, the impact of security is not included in the electric power facility asset utilization ratio assessment that country is existing about ministries and commissions, the singularity of power grid asset efficiency evaluation is not fully familiar with.Therefore, in power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation, prior art cannot meet practical requirement.
Summary of the invention
In sum, necessary provide a set of can the index system of comprehensive evaluation power transmission network security risk and method for building up.
A method for building up for power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation, comprises the following steps: the structure principle according to index system sets up index system hierarchical structure, comprises destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer successively; Each index system hierarchical structure is classified, index each in destination layer is divided into power transmission network security risk index and power transmission network social benefit index two class; Power transmission network security risk index is classified, the evaluation index of described power transmission network security risk index is set up in rule layer, comprise: power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index RIE, power grid structures risk indicator RITS, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator RIR and extreme event risk indicator RIH; Power transmission network social benefit index is classified, in rule layer, sets up the evaluation index of described social benefit index, at least comprise clean utilization target energy and social benefit index of powering continuously; Power transmission and transforming equipment risk indicator is set up respectively in indicator layer, power grid structures risk indicator, the evaluation index of transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator and extreme event risk indicator, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network security risk index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network security risk index; In indicator layer, set up clean utilization target energy respectively and the evaluation index of social benefit index of powering continuously, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network social benefit index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network social benefit index; And according to power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index, power grid structures risk indicator, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator, extreme event risk indicator and clean utilization target energy, calculate power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation index.
Relative to prior art, the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation provided by the present invention, first feature according to each evaluation index carries out layering, grouping to each index, and utilize simulation method simultaneously, social benefit and environmental benefit are evaluated, risk indicator is utilized to evaluate safety benefit, finally safety benefit index is carried out comprehensively, thus obtain containing the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of safety benefit of power transmission network social property, environment attribute, there is very high practicality.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the method for building up of the index system of power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation provided by the invention.
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of the index system for power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation provided by the invention.
Embodiment
Also in conjunction with specific embodiments technical scheme of the present invention is stated further in detail according to Figure of description below.
Refer to Fig. 1 to Fig. 2, the method for building up of the index system of power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation provided by the invention mainly comprises the steps:
Step 1, the structure principle according to index system sets up index system hierarchical structure, comprises destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer successively.
In step 1, the structure principle of described index system mainly comprises following several: comprehensive principle, purpose principle, terseness principle, independency principle, level principle and feasibility principle.Be appreciated that and above-mentioned lift the structure principle being only main, also can select according to the actual needs of index system hierarchical structure.According to the method setting up Safety Index System Assessment, consider power transmission network safety, the target of benefit has level significantly, set up analysis level structure, thus obtain power transmission network security risk overall evaluation system.
Step 2, classifies to each index system hierarchical structure, destination layer index is divided into power transmission network security risk index and power transmission network social benefit index two class.
Step 3, power transmission network security risk index is classified, in rule layer, sets up the evaluation index of described power transmission network security risk index, comprising: power transmission and transforming equipment risk indicator, power grid structures risk indicator, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator and extreme event risk indicator.
Step 4, classifies to power transmission network social benefit index, sets up the evaluation index of described social benefit index in rule layer, at least comprises clean utilization target energy and social benefit index of powering continuously.
Step 5, power transmission and transforming equipment risk indicator is set up respectively in indicator layer, power grid structures risk indicator, the evaluation index of transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator and extreme event risk indicator, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network security risk index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network security risk index.
In steps of 5, described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index mainly refers to the risk that in power transmission network, device damage causes, and its probability of happening is device damage probability.Consequence is maintenance cost, the renewal cost that device damage causes.
The evaluation index of described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index in indicator layer comprises the expense that the probability of device damage and device damage cause.Integrated risk is the value-at-risk sum that all devices damages.The computing method of described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index are such as formula shown in (1):
In formula, i---equipment serial number; J---device type;
P
eij---the probability of i-th device damage in jth kind equipment;
C
eij---the expense that in jth kind equipment, i-th device damage causes.
After there is disturbance in described power grid structures risk mainly reflection system, the risk of system unstability.The evaluation index of described power grid structures risk indicator in indicator layer can comprise: line mode probability level, unstability event occurrence rate index, unstability event cutting load figureofmerit, unstability event index release time, electricity price index.Be appreciated that and also can carry out choose reasonable according to actual needs.
The computing formula of described power grid structures risk indicator is:
In formula, i---unstability type (1: merit angle unstability, 2: Voltage Instability, 3: frequency unstability);
J---cause the event sequence number of unstability; M---the method for operation;
η
m---m kind method of operation proportion;
P
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the probability that in jth class unstability type, event i occurs;
C
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the cutting load amount that in jth class unstability type, event i causes;
τ
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the release time of event i in jth class unstability type;
α---electricity price index.
The evaluation index of described transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator in indicator layer comprises: lack power supply probability of occurrence, lack power supply event fine.Described transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator is by following formulae discovery:
（3）
In formula, p---lack the probability of power supply event; W---lack the consequence fine of power supply event.
Described extreme event risk indicator, also referred to as low probability major accident, concrete property is high impact property and low probability of happening.The evaluation index of described extreme event risk indicator in indicator layer comprises: the average cutting load loss of the probability that extreme event occurs, event.Described extreme event risk indicator is by following formulae discovery:
（4）
In formula, the probability of p---extreme event; The average cutting load loss of C---extreme event.
Step 6, clean utilization target energy is set up respectively and the evaluation index of social benefit index of powering continuously in indicator layer, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network social benefit index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network social benefit index.
The evaluation index of described clean utilization target energy comprises: new forms of energy excision ratio, new forms of energy transmission of electricity electricity, new forms of energy transmission of electricity contribution rate, new forms of energy carbon emission reduction income.
For new forms of energy transmission of electricity electricity: new forms of energy refer to the step clean energy resource such as wind-powered electricity generation, photovoltaic, its access needs the transmission through power transmission network, assesses clean energy resource transmission of electricity electricity:
New forms of energy transmission of electricity electricity=∑ E
new forms of energy(5)
For new forms of energy transmission of electricity contribution: because new forms of energy power supply is in transmission of electricity, power transmission network needs in full receiving, and when have ignored economy constraint, in order to the benefit of power transmission network in the transmission of electricity of accurate evaluation new forms of energy, need the investment to power transmission network, run and comprehensively analyze, obtain new forms of energy transmission of electricity contribution rate index, represent the contribution that power transmission network generates electricity for new forms of energy power supply:
The electricity that new forms of energy plant-grid connection cannot be sent due to power transmission network safe limit, needs to make new forms of energy power supply excise or subtract operation of exerting oneself, utilizes new forms of energy to excise ratio, can understand the utilization power of new forms of energy power supply, thus further go out the information such as system carbon emission reduction.
R
excision=new forms of energy excision electricity/new forms of energy send electricity × 100% (7)
Described clean utilization target energy computing method are:
B
the clean utilization energy=(r
contribution-r
excision) × ∑ E
new forms of energy× p
carbon emission reduction(8)
In formula: p
carbon emission reduction---new forms of energy carbon emission reduction income.
The evaluation index of described continuous power supply social benefit index mainly comprises: electrogenesis compares index.
Power transmission network is the important infrastructure of national economy, for Chinese national economy and social development, there is impact of overall importance, the development level of power transmission network should be coordinated mutually with the social economic environment of outside, and in fact the benefit of power transmission network self will be far smaller than the external economic results in society of electrical network.By setting up electrogenesis than index, can assess the production in the service area of power transmission network in area, life electric power benefit:
R
electrogenesis ratio=regional annual GDP/ trnamission capacity × 100% in the current year (9).
Step 7, according to power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index, power grid structures risk indicator, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator, extreme event risk indicator and clean utilization target energy, calculates power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation index.
According to above analysis, obtain power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation index:
B
comprehensively=-(RIE+ (RITS+RIR+RIH) × r
electrogenesis ratio)+B
the clean utilization energy(10)
The computing method of the index system of power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation provided by the present invention, according to the feature of different evaluation index to first carrying out layering, grouping to each index of correlation, social benefit and environmental benefit are evaluated simultaneously, risk indicator is utilized to evaluate safety benefit, finally safety benefit index is carried out comprehensively, obtain containing the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of power transmission network safety benefit of power transmission network social property, environment attribute, there is very high practical value.
In addition, those skilled in the art also can do other change in spirit of the present invention, and these changes done according to the present invention's spirit, all should be included in the present invention's scope required for protection certainly.
Claims (10)
1. a method for building up for power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation, comprises the following steps:
Structure principle according to index system sets up index system hierarchical structure, comprises destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer successively;
Each index system hierarchical structure is classified, index each in destination layer is divided into power transmission network security risk index and power transmission network social benefit index two class;
Power transmission network security risk index is classified, the evaluation index of described power transmission network security risk index is set up in rule layer, comprise: power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index RIE, power grid structures risk indicator RITS, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator RIR and extreme event risk indicator RIH;
Power transmission network social benefit index is classified, in rule layer, sets up the evaluation index of described social benefit index, at least comprise clean utilization target energy and social benefit index of powering continuously;
Power transmission and transforming equipment risk indicator is set up respectively in indicator layer, power grid structures risk indicator, the evaluation index of transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator and extreme event risk indicator, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network security risk index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network security risk index;
In indicator layer, set up clean utilization target energy respectively and the evaluation index of social benefit index of powering continuously, and calculate each index relevant to power transmission network social benefit index in rule layer and indicator layer respectively, obtain power transmission network social benefit index; And
According to power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index, power grid structures risk indicator, transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator, extreme event risk indicator and clean utilization target energy, calculate power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation index.
2. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the structure principle of described index system comprises comprehensive principle, purpose principle, terseness principle, independency principle, level principle and feasibility principle.
3. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index refers to the risk that in power transmission network, device damage causes, and its probability of happening is device damage probability; The evaluation index of described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index in indicator layer comprises the expense that the probability of device damage and device damage cause, and described power transmission and transforming equipment risk case index is obtained by following formula:
In formula, i---equipment serial number; J---device type;
P
eij---the probability of i-th device damage in jth kind equipment;
C
eij---the expense that in jth kind equipment, i-th device damage causes.
4. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the evaluation index of described power grid structures risk indicator in indicator layer comprises: line mode probability level, unstability event occurrence rate index, unstability event cutting load figureofmerit, unstability event index release time, electricity price index.
5. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 4, it is characterized in that, described power grid structures risk indicator is obtained by following formula:
In formula, i---unstability type (1: merit angle unstability, 2: Voltage Instability, 3: frequency unstability);
J---cause the event sequence number of unstability; M---the method for operation;
η
m---m kind method of operation proportion;
P
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the probability that in jth class unstability type, event i occurs;
C
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the cutting load amount that in jth class unstability type, event i causes; τ
m, ij---under the m kind method of operation, the release time of event i in jth class unstability type;
α---electricity price index.
6. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the evaluation index of described transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator in indicator layer comprises: lack power supply probability of occurrence, lack power supply event fine, and described transmission of electricity power supply risk indicator is obtained by following formula:
RIR＝p·W；
In formula, p---lack the probability of power supply event; W---lack the consequence fine of power supply event.
7. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the evaluation index of described extreme event risk indicator in indicator layer comprises: the average cutting load loss of the probability that extreme event occurs, event, and described extreme event risk indicator is obtained by following formula:
In formula, the probability of p---extreme event; The average cutting load loss of C---extreme event.
8. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the evaluation index of described clean utilization target energy comprises: new forms of energy excision ratio, new forms of energy transmission of electricity electricity, new forms of energy transmission of electricity contribution rate, new forms of energy carbon emission reduction income, described clean utilization target energy is by following formulae discovery:
B
the clean utilization energy=(r
contribution-r
excision) × ∑ E
new forms of energy× p
carbon emission reduction;
In formula: the contribution of new forms of energy power supply generating:
R
excision=new forms of energy excision electricity/new forms of energy send electricity × 100%;
New forms of energy transmission of electricity electricity=∑ E
new forms of energy;
P
carbon emission reduction---new forms of energy carbon emission reduction income.
9. the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation as claimed in claim 8, it is characterized in that, the evaluation index of described continuous power supply social benefit index comprises electrogenesis than index, and described electrogenesis passes through following formulae discovery than index:
R
electrogenesis ratio=regional annual GDP/ trnamission capacity × 100% in the current year.
10. as claimed in claim 9, the method for building up of power transmission network security risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation, is characterized in that, described power transmission network security risk comprehensive evaluation index is by following formulae discovery:
B
comprehensively=-(RIE+ (RITS+RIR+RIH) × r
electrogenesis ratio)+B
the clean utilization energy.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105354761A (en) * | 2015-11-02 | 2016-02-24 | 山东大学 | Safety and effectiveness evaluation method and system for accessing wind-power into power grid |
| CN108305018A (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2018-07-20 | 肖鑫茹 | A kind of accurate clean manufacturing benefit evaluation system of evaluation |
-
2015
- 2015-03-30 CN CN201510143335.3A patent/CN104881818B/en active Active
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 郭刚: "城市电网改造工程效益分析与评价", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 社会科学Ⅰ辑》 * |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105354761A (en) * | 2015-11-02 | 2016-02-24 | 山东大学 | Safety and effectiveness evaluation method and system for accessing wind-power into power grid |
| CN105354761B (en) * | 2015-11-02 | 2020-03-20 | 山东大学 | Safety and efficiency evaluation method and system for accessing wind power into power grid |
| CN108305018A (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2018-07-20 | 肖鑫茹 | A kind of accurate clean manufacturing benefit evaluation system of evaluation |
| CN108305018B (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2022-11-18 | 中环联合(北京)认证中心有限公司 | Accurate clean production benefit evaluation system of evaluation |
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