CN115759866B - Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree - Google Patents
Comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree, which comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-watershed according to the watershed division condition in a designated area; dividing a first-level sub-watershed into a plurality of second-level sub-watershed by combining the cutoff influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology; determining the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary subwatershed; the water and electricity development degree index of each secondary sub-drainage basin is subjected to aggregation judgment; evaluating the aggregation distribution of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation; and evaluating the degree of hydropower development based on the aggregation judgment or the aggregation distribution evaluation result. The invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree, which aims to overcome the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, realize comprehensive evaluation of the comprehensive hydropower development degree which is easy to operate and scientific and reasonable under the river basin scale, and further provide more scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for future development scheme formulation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of watershed water energy resource evaluation, in particular to a comprehensive evaluation method for water and electricity development degree.
Background
From construction to operation, the hydropower engineering can induce various ecological environment effects by changing the structures and functions of river and land ecosystems. In the prior art, researches on hydropower development around watershed mainly focus on the study of hydropower development modes, the influence of hydropower development on water resource development, the accumulated influence of ladder development and the like. However, the prior art lacks comprehensive evaluation means for the water and electricity development degree under the river basin scale, which brings certain technical problems to researches on ecological environment of the river basin, reasonable planning and management of the river basin, cumulative environment caused by water and electricity development and the like.
Specifically, for the evaluation of the related effects generated by hydropower development, the following disadvantages are mainly existed in that the evaluation is mostly completed by adopting the river basin runoff, habitat pattern, biogenic substances, vegetation indexes, aquatic organism population structures and other habitats and biological related indexes: (1) Based on the evaluation results of the indexes, the influence of factors such as climate change, agricultural activity or town ization is generally difficult to remove; (2) The index has a large amount of punctiform sampling data, so that the spatial heterogeneity is difficult to embody; the acquisition difficulty is relatively high, and the quantitative modeling difficulty under the large area scale is also improved; (3) The spatial correlation for upstream and downstream, tributary and main streams is weak.
In summary, the existing evaluation method is limited in terms of managing the construction of watershed hydropower engineering, reducing the influence of hydropower development and the like, and a comprehensive evaluation method which is easy to operate, scientific and reasonable and comprehensive is needed to be established.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree, which aims to solve the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, realize easy-to-operate and scientific and reasonable comprehensive evaluation of hydropower development degree under the river basin scale, and further provide more scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for future development scheme formulation.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree comprises the following steps:
s1, obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-watershed according to the watershed division condition in a designated area; dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watershed by combining the cutoff influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
s2, determining the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary sub-drainage basin;
s3, judging the aggregation of the water and electricity development degree indexes of each secondary sub-drainage basin: if any index has aggregation, entering S4; if all indexes do not have aggregation, entering S5;
s4, evaluating the aggregation distribution of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation;
s5, comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result.
Aiming at the evaluation limitation of hydropower development in the prior art, the invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method of hydropower development degree. Then, combining the cutoff influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology, further carrying out refinement and partitioning on the basis of the primary sub-watershed, and dividing each primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watershed; the cutoff effect of the human activity and the natural ecological condition on the hydrology can be any parameter that the human activity and the natural ecological condition may affect the hydrologic characteristics of the watershed, and any method for dividing the secondary sub-watershed by a person skilled in the art under the premise of considering the difference between the human activity and the natural ecological condition is applicable, which is not particularly limited herein. Then, determining a hydropower development degree index, and calculating each index value corresponding to each secondary sub-drainage basin; the hydropower development level index is preferably a parameter that reflects the technical and economic performance of the hydropower station, and is not particularly limited herein. Then, the aggregation judgment is carried out on the index of the water and electricity development degree of each secondary sub-drainage basin: if all the indexes do not have aggregation, the comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree is directly carried out based on the aggregation judgment result; if at least one index has aggregation, all the indexes with aggregation are subjected to aggregation distribution evaluation, and then the comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree is performed based on the aggregation distribution evaluation result.
Since the evaluation of the aggregation distribution is performed based on the result of the aggregation judgment, the process of evaluating the degree of hydropower development based on the result of the evaluation of the aggregation distribution is also considered substantially similarly.
The method overcomes the defect that factors such as climate change, agricultural activity or town formation are difficult to remove in the evaluation process in the prior art, and the uncertainty caused by data sampling is avoided by taking a plurality of hydropower development degree indexes as evaluation basis, so that the evaluation result can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of the river basin; the method comprises the spatial association relation of upstream, downstream, tributaries and main flows, has strong operability and scientific evaluation result, can be used for evaluating the influence of hydropower development on the ecological safety condition of the river basin, can be used for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development level under the dimension of the river basin, and can provide scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for evaluating the accumulated environmental influence of reservoir groups, optimizing the layout of hydropower stations of the river basin, modifying hydropower stations, constructing and operating future hydropower engineering, making ecological environmental protection measures of the river basin and the like.
Further, the truncated effects of human activity and natural ecological conditions on hydrology include: any one or more of administrative division, dam position, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data. Wherein, the indexes such as administrative division, dam position, land utilization rate and the like are the cutoff influence of human activities on hydrology; the indexes such as topography, soil erosion intensity, geological disaster point distribution, water environment data and the like are the cutoff influence of natural ecological conditions on hydrology.
Further, the hydropower development degree index includes: total hydropower station number, total hydropower station capacity, hydropower development density, and hydropower development strength.
The traditional water energy quantification indexes mainly comprise theoretical reserve, technical development capacity, economic development capacity and the like, and the water and electricity development degree is mainly calculated based on installed capacity and annual energy production. If the hydro-electric development degree is calculated simply according to the installed capacity, the method has the advantages of simplicity and easiness, but the actual situation of hydro-electric development is difficult to accurately reflect; the actual utilization rate of the water energy can be reflected more scientifically by calculating the water electricity development degree according to the annual energy generation amount, but the annual energy generation amount data has the defects of difficult acquisition, easy influence by the river water amount change and the like, so that the actual operability is lower. In order to overcome the defects, the scheme takes the total number of hydropower stations, the total capacity of the hydropower station assembly machine, the hydropower development density and the hydropower development strength as the index of the hydropower development degree, is favorable for more comprehensively quantifying the hydropower development degree of the river basin on the premise of improving the operability and the data availability of the evaluation method, and ensures that the evaluation result has stronger comprehensiveness and scientificity.
Further, the hydropower development density is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDD is hydropower development density, m is hydropower station number in the secondary sub-flow area, L is river length in the secondary sub-flow area;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDI is the water and electricity development intensity, A is the area of a secondary sub-flow area, and P i Is the installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
Further, the method for judging the aggregation of the index of the water and electricity development degree of each secondary sub-drainage basin comprises the following steps:
s301, calculating the Morgan index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a space autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Morgan index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
s302, if I is more than 0 and Z is more than 2.58, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have aggregation; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregation.
The scheme adopts the global Morgan index to represent the aggregation of different secondary sub-watershed under the index of the development degree of each hydropower. When I > 0, the data is expressed to be positively correlated in space, namely, the water and electricity development degree of the sub-watershed has space aggregation. Conversely, when I <0, it indicates that the data exhibits spatial negative correlation, with no aggregation. Furthermore, when the standard deviation multiple Z >2.58, it can be reflected that the null hypothesis, i.e. the spatial pattern of the degree of hydropower development of the sub-basin, is most likely an aggregated distribution, is rejected at 99% confidence. Therefore, the present approach is considered to be aggregated when both conditions of I > 0 and Z >2.58 are satisfied.
Further, the global moland index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formula:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watershed; x is x i The index of the water and electricity development degree of the ith secondary sub-drainage basin; x is x j The index of the water and electricity development degree of the j-th secondary sub-watershed;
the average value of the water and electricity development degree indexes of the n secondary sub-watershed is used; w (w) i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary subbasin and the jth secondary subbasin; s is S 0 Aggregation of all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin are positioned in the same primary sub-basin and the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin have an upstream-downstream adjacent relationship, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
The present scheme uses w i,j The spatial relationship between the secondary sub-watershed in the research area is represented, the Queen weight definition is improved, and the consideration process of the spatial adjacent relationship between the upstream and the downstream is fully embodied.
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ；
Wherein E [ I ]]Is the mean value of I; v [ I ]]Variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]Is the expectation of the square of I; s is S 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s is S 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
Further, the method for evaluating the aggregate distribution of the index of the degree of development of the water and electricity with the aggregate property comprises the following steps:
s401, calculating a local Morgan index I of each secondary subwatershed by adopting a local space autocorrelation analysis method aiming at the water and electricity development degree index with aggregation i Local Morlan index statistic Z Ii ；
S402, combining local Morgan index I i And local Morand index statistic Z Ii Aggregation evaluation was performed on all secondary sub-watershed.
The purpose of the aggregation distribution evaluation is to identify the distribution condition of secondary sub-watershed with aggregation, the proposal introduces a local space autocorrelation analysis method, and calculates the local Morlan index I of each secondary sub-watershed corresponding to the index of the water and electricity development degree of each aggregation i On the basis of (1), also carrying out local Morganella index statistics to obtain local Morganella index statistics Z Ii As an index of the aggregation distribution evaluation as well, the result of the aggregation distribution evaluation can be made more accurate.
Further, local Morganella index I i Calculated by the following formula:
wherein S is i 2 Is the variance of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watershed except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Morlan index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
wherein E [ I ] i ]Is I i Is the average value of (2); v [ I ] i ]Is I i Is a function of the variance of (a),
is I i Is the expectation of the square of (c).
Wherein:
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high value aggregation area;
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high-low value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low-high value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low value aggregation region;
if Z is more than or equal to-1.65 Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the evaluation result of the aggregation distribution of the secondary subwatershed is a non-obvious area.
Further, the method for comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree comprises the following steps:
s501, classifying whether a hydropower station is under construction or has been constructed based on whether the secondary sub-watershed is in the secondary sub-watershed;
s502, comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development degree by combining the aggregation judgment result, the aggregation distribution evaluation result, the relationship between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the hydropower development degree index and the relationship between the hydropower development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the hydropower development degree index on the basis of the classification result.
The scheme gives corresponding parameter indexes required for evaluating the water and electricity development degree, and a specific evaluation scheme can be set according to actual requirements during actual operation.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree overcomes the defect that the existing evaluation process is difficult to remove factors such as climate change, agricultural activity or town, and the like, takes the hydropower development degree as an evaluation basis, avoids uncertainty caused by data sampling, and can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of a river basin.
2. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, the spatial association relation of upstream, downstream, tributaries and main flows is more clearly considered, quantitative judgment is carried out through the adjacency between the sub-watershed, the connectivity between the sub-watershed is reflected to a certain extent, and the comprehensive evaluation method has the advantages of being strong in operability, scientific in evaluation result and the like.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method of the hydropower development degree can be used for evaluating the influence of hydropower development on the ecological safety condition of the river basin, can also be used for comprehensively evaluating the hydropower development level under the dimension of the river basin, and can provide scientific auxiliary information and decision basis for evaluating the accumulated environmental influence of reservoir groups, optimizing the layout of the hydropower station, modifying hydropower stations, constructing and running future hydropower engineering, making ecological environmental protection measures of the river basin and the like.
4. In the comprehensive evaluation field of the water and electricity development degree, a brand new index of the water and electricity development degree is introduced, the index considers river basin conditions such as river length, river basin area and the like, and the comprehensive evaluation method is beneficial to more comprehensively quantifying the water and electricity development degree of the river basin on the premise of improving the operability and the data availability of the evaluation method.
5. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, the Morgan index in the space autocorrelation analysis method is introduced, the aggregation of different secondary sub-watershed under each hydropower development degree index is evaluated together through the global Morgan index and the standard deviation multiple, and the evaluation accuracy is improved.
6. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the water and electricity development degree, the local Morgan index and the local Morgan index statistic are introduced, so that an accurate aggregation distribution evaluation result can be obtained, and a powerful support is provided for evaluation of the water and electricity development degree.
7. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the water and electricity development degree, the recognition of the water and electricity development influence can be effectively realized through the evaluation of the aggregation distribution of the water and electricity development degree index, and the recognition of the water and electricity development influence is realized from a new technical angle.
8. According to the comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree, provided by the invention, the influence factors can be ordered by combining the meaning of the local space autocorrelation result, so that the refinement and division of the hydropower development degree level are realized.
9. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree realizes comprehensive evaluation based on multi-index aggregation distribution evaluation, and emphasizes comprehensive evaluation of the hydropower development degree from various aspects.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the result of the aggregation judgment according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram showing the evaluation result of the aggregation distribution in the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing the overall evaluation results of the degree of hydropower development in the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of making apparent the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the following examples and the accompanying drawings, wherein the exemplary embodiments of the present invention and the descriptions thereof are for illustrating the present invention only and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention.
Example 1:
the comprehensive evaluation method for the water and electricity development degree shown in fig. 1 comprises the following steps:
step one, obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-watershed according to the watershed division condition in a designated area; the primary sub-watershed is divided into a plurality of secondary sub-watershed by combining the cutoff effect of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology.
The division of the first-level sub-watershed in the embodiment can be realized according to the existing three-level watershed division standard, such as the industry standard SL.249, china river code, SL653-2013, small watershed division and coding Specification, river class division method, and the like. The known tertiary drainage basin is designated as a primary sub-drainage basin in the method.
Wherein the truncated effect of the human activity and natural ecological conditions on hydrology comprises: any one or more of administrative division, dam position, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data.
Preferably, if the area of the primary sub-drainage basin is too large, dividing the secondary sub-drainage basin based on administrative division boundaries preferentially; also, when considering the dam position, it is preferable that the dam appears as much as possible in the center of the secondary sub-basin rather than near the boundary.
And step two, calculating the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary subwatershed.
Wherein, the water and electricity development degree index includes: total hydropower station number, total hydropower station capacity, hydropower development density, and hydropower development strength.
The hydropower development density is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDD is hydropower development density, m is hydropower station number in the secondary sub-flow area, L is river length in the secondary sub-flow area;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDI is the water and electricity development intensity, A is the area of a secondary sub-flow area, and P i Is the installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
And thirdly, judging the aggregation of the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary sub-drainage basin.
Calculating the Morganella index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a space autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Morganella index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
if I is more than 0 and Z is more than 2.58, the index of the water and electricity development degree is considered to have aggregation; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregation.
According to the aggregation judgment result, if any of the hydro-electric development degree indexes has aggregation, entering a step four; if all the hydropower development degree indexes do not have aggregation, the step five is carried out.
And step four, evaluating the aggregation distribution of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation.
Aiming at the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation, a local space autocorrelation analysis method is adopted to calculate the local Morgan index I of each secondary subdrainage basin i Local Morlan index statistic Z Ii ；
Binding local Morganella index I i And local Morand index statistic Z Ii Aggregation evaluation was performed on all secondary sub-watershed.
The index of the aggregation evaluation in this embodiment is:
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high value aggregation area;
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high-low value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low-high value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low value aggregation region;
if Z is more than or equal to-1.65 Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the evaluation result of the aggregation distribution of the secondary subwatershed is a non-obvious area.
And fifthly, comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result.
Firstly, classifying whether a hydropower station under construction or an established hydropower station exists in a secondary sub-drainage basin; and then, on the basis of the classification result, evaluating the water and electricity development degree by combining the aggregation judgment result or the aggregation distribution evaluation result, the relationship between the water and electricity development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the water and electricity development degree index, and the relationship between the water and electricity development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the water and electricity development degree index.
Preferably, in this embodiment:
first, based on whether a hydropower station under construction or built is in the secondary sub-basin as a classification, the secondary sub-basin with the hydropower station under construction or built is divided into a hydropower development area, and the secondary sub-basin without the hydropower station under construction or built is divided into a hydropower engineering influence area.
The high value aggregation area and the high and low value area in the aggregation evaluation are taken as the most important influence factors, and the low and high value area is taken as the secondary influence factor; in order to prevent the single development index of the individual secondary sub-watershed from being overlooked, the third quartile and the median are also taken as more secondary influencing factors.
The method finally obtains two major categories of a hydropower development area and a hydropower engineering influence area, divides the hydropower development area into an extremely high area, a medium area and a low area, and divides the hydropower engineering influence area into the high area and the low area, wherein the total amount of the hydropower development area is 6 degrees; the preferred evaluation schemes obtained are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1
And (3) for the situation that all the indexes of the hydropower development degree in the second step do not have aggregation and directly enter the fifth step, evaluating the corresponding secondary sub-basin as a hydropower development area with low hydropower development degree or a hydropower engineering influence area with low hydropower development degree according to whether a hydropower station is under construction or is established.
In addition to the preferred evaluation schemes described in table 1, the other evaluation schemes can be obtained by combining the relevant parameters such as the aggregation judgment result, the aggregation distribution evaluation result, the median, the quartile, and the like according to the method of the present embodiment.
Example 2:
a comprehensive evaluation method for hydropower development degree is based on the embodiment 1:
the global moland index I, standard deviation multiple Z is calculated by the following formula:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watershed; x is x i The index of the water and electricity development degree of the ith secondary sub-drainage basin; x is x j For the j-th secondary sub-basinIs a hydropower development degree index;
the average value of the water and electricity development degree indexes of the n secondary sub-watershed is used; w (w) i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary subbasin and the jth secondary subbasin; s is S 0 Aggregation of all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin are positioned in the same primary sub-basin and the ith secondary sub-basin and the jth secondary sub-basin have an upstream-downstream adjacent relationship, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ；
Wherein E [ I ]]Is the mean value of I; v [ I ]]Variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]Is the expectation of the square of I; s is S 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s is S 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
Local Morlan index I i Calculated by the following formula:
wherein S is i 2 Is the variance of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watershed except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Morlan index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
wherein E [ I ] i ]Is I i Is the average value of (2); v [ I ] i ]Is I i Is a function of the variance of (a),
is I i Is the expectation of the square of (c).
In this embodiment, the spatial weight matrix w i,j The spatial relation between the two secondary sub-watershed is represented, the Queen weight definition is improved, if the two secondary sub-watershed is positioned in the same primary sub-watershed and has an adjacent relation of the upstream and the downstream, the spatial relation between the two secondary sub-watershed is judged, and 1 is taken; otherwise, take 0.
Preferably, the method further comprises the following additional calculation process:
E[I 2 ]＝A-B；
wherein A, B is an intermediate parameter.
Example 3:
in this embodiment, the hydropower development level is comprehensively evaluated in the range of the elegance river basin and the large-ferry river basin by adopting the method described in any one of the embodiments.
The water energy resources of the elegance river and the large-ferry river basin (hereinafter referred to as the two river basin) in Sichuan province are rich, planning and construction are carried out for over twenty years, but a plurality of power stations in the river basin are in an un-built and planned state, and are concentrated at the upstream of the ecologically fragile river basin. The water and electricity engineering development of the river basins of the two rivers is found, and important influences are generated on the ecological environment of the river basins such as fish population, water quality and the like. Therefore, the comprehensive evaluation of the water and electricity development degree in the two river basins has great significance in managing the construction of the river basin water and electricity engineering and reducing the influence of the ecological environment of water and electricity development.
In this embodiment:
the topography is obtained according to DEM data, ASTER GDEM with 30m spatial resolution is adopted, and the data is downloaded to a national science data service platform.
In the embodiment, a first-level sub-river basin is determined according to a third-level river basin dividing standard, and then the elegance river basin and the large-river basin are divided into a second-level sub-river basin. In the hydrologic module in ArcGIS, 73 secondary sub-watershed are finally divided based on the primary sub-watershed result on the basis of guaranteeing the integrity of the two river main streams and the main sub-watershed as much as possible.
In this example, the result of the aggregation judgment of the index of the degree of hydropower development in the secondary sub-basin is shown in fig. 2. Four graphs A, B, C, D in fig. 2 show the results of the aggregation judgment of four hydropower station total number, hydropower station total capacity, hydropower development density and hydropower development strength, respectively. As can be seen from fig. 2, the hydro-electric development density and the hydro-electric development strength are basically consistent with the total number of hydropower stations and the capacity of the hydropower station general assembly machine, but the spatial heterogeneity of the hydro-electric development density and the hydro-electric development strength is larger than that of the total number of hydropower stations and the capacity of the hydropower station general assembly machine, and especially the spatial heterogeneity is obvious at the upstream of the two river basins, which also proves the importance of the hydro-electric development density and the hydro-electric development strength index introduced by the application from the side.
The result of evaluation of the aggregation distribution in this example is shown in fig. 3. In fig. 3, four small graphs from left to right show the results of evaluation of the aggregate distribution of four hydropower station total number, hydropower station total capacity, hydropower development density and hydropower development strength, respectively. As can be seen from fig. 3, although the spatial distribution of the four indexes is basically consistent, there is a large difference in local area, which indicates that the hydropower development level evaluation based on a single index easily ignores the hydropower development comprehensive situation of individual sub-watershed, which also proves from the side that the application synthesizes the four indexes and the spatial aggregation characteristics thereof, and the scientificity and the accuracy of the established comprehensive hydropower development level evaluation model. To further verify this point, the present embodiment also performs a difference test on the aggregation distribution evaluation result: through Kruskal-Wallis H test, the total capacity of the assembly machine, the number of power stations, the development density and the development intensity are found to show obvious differences (p < 0.05) in 4 hydropower development degrees in the hydropower development area, and the obvious differences of various indexes in the hydropower development area are proved, so that the degree division of the hydropower development influence area cannot be reasonably carried out through a single hydropower development degree index; the method and the device divide by adopting the statistical analysis result of space aggregation, and can effectively consider the accumulated ecological environment influence among the waterbasins in the hydropower development process.
The comprehensive evaluation result of the water and electricity development degree finally obtained by the embodiment is shown in fig. 4, and the result has remarkable guiding significance for the subsequent river basin water and electricity development construction management, river basin water and electricity engineering operation management, water ecological environment monitoring and protection, geological disaster prevention and the like.
Example 4:
a watershed-scale hydropower development level comprehensive evaluation system for implementing the method described in example 1 or 2, comprising:
the drainage basin partitioning module is used for obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-drainage basins according to the drainage basin dividing condition in the appointed area; the primary sub-watershed is divided into a plurality of secondary sub-watershed by combining the cutoff influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
the index module is used for determining the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary subwatershed;
the aggregation judgment module is used for judging the aggregation of the water and electricity development degree indexes of each secondary subwatershed;
the aggregation distribution evaluation module is used for evaluating aggregation distribution of the water and electricity development degree index with aggregation;
the evaluation module is used for comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree according to the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result;
and the output module is used for outputting the comprehensive evaluation result of the hydropower development degree.
Example 5:
a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method as set forth in embodiment 1 or 2.
The present invention may implement all or part of the processes in the methods of the embodiments described above, and may be stored in a computer readable storage medium by a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the various method embodiments described above. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, object code forms, executable files, or some intermediate forms, etc. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, a recording medium, a USB flash disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer memory, a read-only memory, a random access memory, a point carrier signal, a telecommunication signal, a software distribution medium, and the like. It should be noted that the content of the computer readable medium can be appropriately increased or decreased according to the requirements of the legislation and the patent practice in the jurisdiction.
The processor may be a central processing unit, but may also be other general purpose processors, digital signal processors, application specific integrated circuits, off-the-shelf programmable gate arrays or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or the like.
The foregoing description of the embodiments has been provided for the purpose of illustrating the general principles of the invention, and is not meant to limit the scope of the invention, but to limit the invention to the particular embodiments, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements, etc. that fall within the spirit and principles of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
It should be noted that in this document, terms such as "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus.
Claims (7)
1. The comprehensive evaluation method for the hydropower development degree is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, obtaining a plurality of first-level sub-watershed according to the watershed division condition in a designated area; dividing the primary sub-watershed into a plurality of secondary sub-watershed by combining the cutoff influence of human activities and natural ecological conditions on hydrology;
s2, determining the index of the hydropower development degree of each secondary sub-drainage basin; the hydropower development degree index comprises: total number of hydropower stations, total capacity of hydropower stations, hydropower development density and hydropower development strength;
s3, judging the aggregation of the water and electricity development degree indexes of each secondary sub-drainage basin: if any index has aggregation, entering S4; if all indexes do not have aggregation, entering S5;
s4, evaluating the aggregation distribution of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation;
s5, comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree based on the aggregation judgment or aggregation distribution evaluation result;
the method for judging the aggregation of the index of the water and electricity development degree of each secondary subwatershed comprises the following steps:
s301, calculating the Morgan index of each hydropower development degree index by adopting a space autocorrelation analysis method to obtain a global Morgan index I and a standard deviation multiple Z;
s302, if I is more than 0 and Z is more than 2.58, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have aggregation; otherwise, the hydropower development degree index is considered to have no aggregation;
the method for evaluating the aggregation distribution of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation comprises the following steps:
s401, calculating a local Morgan index I of each secondary subwatershed by adopting a local space autocorrelation analysis method aiming at the water and electricity development degree index with aggregation i Local Morlan index statistic Z Ii ；
S402, combining local Morgan index I i And local Morand index statistic Z Ii Aggregation evaluation was performed on all secondary sub-watershed.
2. The method for comprehensively evaluating the degree of hydropower development according to claim 1, wherein the intercepting influence of the human activities and the natural ecological conditions on the hydrology comprises: any one or more of administrative division, dam position, topography, soil erosion intensity, land utilization rate, geological disaster point distribution and water environment data.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method for the degree of hydropower development according to claim 1, wherein,
the hydropower development density is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDD is hydropower development density, m is hydropower station number in the secondary sub-flow area, L is river length in the secondary sub-flow area;
the hydropower development strength is calculated by the following formula:
wherein HDI is the water and electricity development intensity, A is the area of a secondary sub-flow area, and P i Is the installed capacity of the ith hydropower station.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the water and electricity development degree according to claim 1, wherein the global moland index I and the standard deviation multiple Z are calculated by the following formula:
wherein n is the number of secondary sub-watershed; x is x i The index of the water and electricity development degree of the ith secondary sub-drainage basin; x is x j The index of the water and electricity development degree of the j-th secondary sub-watershed;
the average value of the water and electricity development degree indexes of the n secondary sub-watershed is used; w (w) i,j A spatial weight value between the ith secondary subbasin and the jth secondary subbasin; s is S 0 Aggregation of all spatial weight values;
if the ith secondary subbasin and the jth secondary subbasin are positioned in the same primary subbasin and the ith secondary subbasin and the jth secondary subbasin have an upstream-downstream adjacent relationship, then w i,j =1; otherwise, w i,j ＝0；
V[I]＝E[I 2 ]-E[I] 2 ；
Wherein E [ I ]]Is the mean value of I; v [ I ]]Variance of I; e [ I ] 2 ]Is the expectation of the square of I; s is S 1 Is a first sum of squares parameter; s is S 2 Is the second sum of squares parameter.
5. The method for comprehensively evaluating the degree of development of hydropower according to claim 1, wherein the local molan index I is as follows i Calculated by the following formula:
wherein S is i 2 Is the variance of the index of the water and electricity development degree with aggregation of all the secondary sub-watershed except the ith secondary sub-watershed;
local Morlan index statistic Z Ii Calculated by the following formula:
wherein E [ I ] i ]Is I i Is the average value of (2); v [ I ] i ]Is I i Is a function of the variance of (a),
is I i Is the expectation of the square of (c).
6. The comprehensive evaluation method for the degree of hydropower development according to claim 1, wherein,
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high value aggregation area;
if Z Ii ＞1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a high-low value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i The aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low-high value region;
if Z Ii ＜-1.65、I i If the value is more than 0, the aggregation distribution evaluation result of the secondary sub-drainage basin is a low value aggregation region;
if Z is more than or equal to-1.65 Ii And less than or equal to 1.65, the evaluation result of the aggregation distribution of the secondary subwatershed is a non-obvious area.
7. The method for comprehensively evaluating the degree of hydropower development according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the method for comprehensively evaluating the degree of hydropower development comprises:
s501, classifying whether a hydropower station is under construction or has been constructed based on whether the secondary sub-watershed is in the secondary sub-watershed;
s502, comprehensively evaluating the water and electricity development degree by combining an aggregation judgment result or an aggregation distribution evaluation result, a relationship between the water and electricity development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the median of the water and electricity development degree index and a relationship between the water and electricity development degree index of the current secondary sub-basin and the third quartile of the water and electricity development degree index on the basis of the classification result.
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