CN115511354A - Pre-drainage scheduling method, system, equipment and medium for cross-basin water network communication project - Google Patents
Pre-drainage scheduling method, system, equipment and medium for cross-basin water network communication project Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a pre-drainage scheduling method, a system, equipment and a medium for cross-basin water network communication engineering, and relates to the field of cross-basin water network communication engineering optimized scheduling. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring multivariate forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; determining multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information; constructing a multi-target hedging model for pre-drainage scheduling of a cross-basin water network communication project according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises: reservoir flood control risk quantization function, downstream flood control risk quantization function and additional diversion cost quantization function; determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on a multi-target hedging model; determining a pre-release scheduling scheme to be selected, wherein the flood control benefit information meets set conditions, as an optimal scheduling scheme; and adopting an optimal scheduling scheme to perform pre-leakage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project. The invention can improve the flood control benefit of the water network communication project.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of cross-basin water network communication project optimized scheduling, in particular to a cross-basin water network communication project pre-drainage scheduling method, system, equipment and medium.
Background
The water network communication engineering is a comprehensive system integrating functions of water collection resource optimization configuration, basin flood control and disaster reduction, water ecosystem protection and the like, and can improve benefits of prosperity and flood control. The benefit improvement of the traditional cross-basin water network communication engineering is concentrated in water supply scheduling, and the comprehensive benefit of the communication engineering, particularly the flood control benefit, is not fully exerted. The pre-release scheduling technology based on the forecast information is an effective means for improving the flood control benefit, and the flood control benefit improving technology based on the pre-release scheduling is currently concentrated in a single reservoir, and a flood control improving technology of a water network communication project does not exist.
The water network communication project can increase flood control benefit, when the water receiving reservoir forecasts heavy rain, the water receiving reservoir pre-drains to increase flood control reservoir capacity, and the water receiving reservoir can guide water from the leading-out reservoir through the communication project, so that the pre-draining space is larger, and the flood control benefit is larger. However, the forecast information has uncertainty, if the null forecast occurs, the diversion cost is increased, and meanwhile, the forecast discharge and the interval incoming water forecast uncertainty are superposed, so that the downstream flood control risk is possibly brought. The larger the pre-discharge flow is, the larger the flood control benefit can be brought, but the larger the diversion cost and the downstream flood control risk are, the mutual competition among the three is, and how to quantify and measure the competition relationship among the three is the key for exerting the comprehensive benefit of the communication engineering.
However, the pre-release scheduling of the water network communication engineering has more available information and more risk factors, including flood forecast uncertainty, rainfall forecast uncertainty and the like of reservoirs and intervals, the forecast uncertainty may bring multiple scheduling risks such as reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, diversion risk and the like, the existing risk quantification method of a single reservoir is concentrated in a single risk source, the multiple risks caused by the multiple risk factors of the communicated water network cannot be measured, and the traditional pre-release scheduling technology cannot be applied to the water network communication engineering.
Therefore, it is necessary to solve the above technical problems and improve the flood control efficiency of the water network communication project.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a pre-drainage scheduling method, a system, equipment and a medium for cross-basin water network communication engineering so as to improve flood control benefits of the water network communication engineering.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a pre-drainage scheduling method for cross-basin water network communication engineering comprises the following steps:
acquiring multi-element forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: a flood forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a water discharge forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a flood forecasting scheme of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center;
determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information according to the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object;
constructing a multi-target hedging model of pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication project according to the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises the following steps: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function and an additional diversion cost quantification function;
determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information comprises: reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, and additional diversion costs;
determining the pre-release scheduling scheme to be selected, of which the flood control benefit information meets set conditions, as an optimal scheduling scheme;
and adopting the optimal scheduling scheme to perform pre-drainage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project.
Optionally, the determining, as an optimal scheduling scheme, a to-be-selected pre-drainage scheduling scheme for which the flood protection benefit information meets a set condition specifically includes:
determining the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, in which the flood control benefit information meets the set constraint condition, as a target pre-leakage scheduling scheme; the setting of the constraint condition comprises: water balance constraint, storage capacity constraint, discharge constraint, acceptable diversion cost constraint, acceptable risk constraint of a reservoir and acceptable risk constraint of downstream;
determining a flood control benefit quantized value of the target pre-drainage scheduling scheme according to the flood control benefit information;
determining a target pre-drainage scheduling scheme with the flood control benefit quantized value meeting set target conditions as an optimal scheduling scheme; the setting conditions include: the setting constraint condition and the setting target condition.
Optionally, the flood control benefit quantified value includes: a weighted sum of the reservoir flood protection risk rate, the downstream flood protection risk rate, and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the weighted sum is minimal.
Optionally, the flood control benefit quantification value comprises: marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the marginal value is greatest.
Optionally, the constructing a multi-target hedging model for pre-drainage scheduling of a cross-basin water network communication project according to the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information specifically includes:
determining a reservoir flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir;
determining a downstream flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the interval between the water receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;
and determining an additional diversion cost quantization function according to the water recession forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir.
Optionally, a full probability risk quantification method is adopted, and a reservoir flood control risk quantification function is determined according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir.
Optionally, the determining multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information specifically includes:
determining flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-retreating forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast error probability distribution of the interval between the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object by adopting an extreme entropy model according to the flood forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-retreating forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast scheme of the interval between the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;
and determining the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir by adopting a P-III type distribution function according to the rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center.
A cross-basin water network connection project pre-drainage scheduling system is applied to the cross-basin water network connection project pre-drainage scheduling method, and comprises the following steps:
the multi-element forecast information acquisition module is used for acquiring multi-element forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: a flood forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a water discharge forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a flood forecasting scheme of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center;
the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information determining module is used for determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information according to the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object;
the multi-target hedging model building module is used for building a multi-target hedging model for pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication engineering according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises the following steps: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function and an additional diversion cost quantification function;
the flood control benefit information determining module is used for determining flood control benefit information of a to-be-selected pre-release scheduling scheme based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, and additional diversion costs;
the optimal scheduling scheme determining module is used for determining the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, of which the flood control benefit information meets the set conditions, as the optimal scheduling scheme;
and the pre-leakage flow scheduling module is used for performing pre-leakage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project by adopting the optimal scheduling scheme.
An electronic device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used for storing a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to enable the electronic device to execute the pre-drainage scheduling method for the cross-basin water network connectivity engineering.
A computer-readable storage medium, storing a computer program, which when executed by a processor, implements the method for pre-drainage scheduling of a cross-basin water network connectivity project described above.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
1. the invention provides a pre-drainage scheduling technology utilizing multivariate forecast information and a reservoir capacity compensation mechanism based on a reservoir capacity compensation mechanism of a water network project and oriented to joint scheduling of cross-basin water network communication projects, improves the flood control benefit of the project, fills the application blank of the existing pre-drainage scheduling technology in the water network and plays a comprehensive role of the water network project.
2. The invention takes multivariate forecast information and uncertainty thereof (namely multivariate forecast error probability distribution information) into coupling consideration, constructs a risk quantification method of reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk and additional diversion cost multiple risk event brought to water network engineering by forecast uncertainty, can comprehensively excavate engineering potential, can quantify influence brought by scheduling decision, and improves scientificity and accuracy of actual scheduling operation of water network engineering.
Therefore, the invention can improve the flood control benefit of the water network communication project.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a pre-drainage scheduling method for a cross-basin water network communication project provided by the invention;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of a pre-drainage scheduling method for a cross-basin water network connectivity project according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic process diagram of a reservoir flood control risk quantification method provided by the invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic representation of the downstream flood protection risk provided by the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the additional water diversion provided by the present invention;
fig. 6 is a block diagram of a pre-drainage scheduling system for a cross-basin water network communication project provided by the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a pre-drainage scheduling method, a system, equipment and a medium for cross-basin water network communication engineering so as to improve flood control benefits of the water network communication engineering.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
Example one
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a pre-drainage scheduling method for a cross-basin water network communication project provided by the present invention, and fig. 2 is a flowchart of a pre-drainage scheduling method for a cross-basin water network communication project provided by an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2, the method for pre-drainage scheduling of a cross-basin water network communication project provided by the present invention includes:
step 101: acquiring multivariate forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: the method comprises the steps of flood forecasting of a water receiving reservoir, water discharge forecasting of the water receiving reservoir, flood forecasting of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center.
Step 102: determining multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object.
The step 102 specifically includes:
step 102.1: and determining the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast error probability distribution of the interval of the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object by adopting a maximum entropy model according to the flood forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-withdrawal forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast scheme of the interval of the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.
Step 102.2: and determining the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir by adopting a P-III type distribution function according to the rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center.
In practical application, according to the historical warehousing flood forecasting process and the actual warehousing process of the current territory, the warehousing flood forecasting error e is analyzed, and a great entropy model is adopted to analyze the probability distribution function f of the flood forecasting error E (e) And calculating the probability distribution function of the water discharge forecasting error and the interval flood forecasting error by adopting the same method. According to the rainfall capacity, the weather rainfall forecast information of 24h (48 h) in the future is divided into different levels (level k) of no rain, light rain, medium rain, heavy rain and heavy rain, the accuracy, the rate of missing report and the rate of empty report under different rainfall forecast levels are analyzed according to the historical observation rainfall and forecast rainfall data, the actual rainfall probability distribution under different rainfall forecast levels is calculated, and the P-III type distribution function can be adopted for description.
Step 103: constructing a multi-target hedging model for pre-drainage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication project according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises: reservoir flood control risk quantization function, downstream flood control risk quantization function and additional diversion cost quantization function. Correspondingly, the targets of the multi-target hedging model comprise: reservoir flood protection risks, downstream flood protection risks, and diversion costs in the case of empty reports (i.e., additional diversion costs).
The step 103 specifically includes:
step 103.1: and determining a reservoir flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir.
Specifically, a full probability risk quantification method is adopted, and a reservoir flood control risk quantification function is determined according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir.
Fig. 3 is a schematic process diagram of a reservoir flood control risk quantification method provided by the invention. As shown in fig. 3, in practical application, a total probability risk quantification method considering the uncertainty of the qualitative rainfall forecast and the error of the quantitative flood forecast is specifically described as follows:
in the pre-discharge stage, the reservoir may encounter different forecast errors of the flood in storage, corresponding to different water levels Z at the pre-discharge end time i (also the next flood starts to adjust the water level); during the flood regulation stage, the rainfall X (P) with different frequencies can be met by starting with a certain water level c ) And further possibly leading the high water level of reservoir flood regulation to exceed the original design flood regulation high water level Z m A risk event occurs. The main analysis steps are as follows:
step (1): according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, determining the water level distribution after the pre-discharge is finished, and specifically comprising the following steps:
a step (a): according to the flood forecast distribution function f calculated in the step 102.1 E (e) Dividing the error into n discrete intervals within the error threshold, and calculating the error in different intervals (delta e) i ) The probability of occurrence is shown as follows:
in the formula, i represents the ith error.
Step (b): at a certain pre-leakage decision (i.e. pre-leakage scheduling scheme) Q out Then, forecasting error e according to the scattered warehousing flood i Calculating the forecast error e in relation to the water balance i Lower water level Z i The formula is as follows:
Z i ＝G(V i )
in the formula, V 0 Indicating reservoir volume at pre-venting, V i Indicating the prediction error e i The corresponding storage capacity is stored in the storage device,
the forecast inflow represents the pre-discharge period, Δ t represents the time (in seconds) corresponding to the pre-discharge period, and G () represents a function of the relation between the reservoir capacity and the water level.
Step (2): according to the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, determining a flood process line formed by rainfall at different frequencies, which specifically comprises the following steps:
step (c): calculating each frequency (namely rainfall probability) P according to the probability distribution function under the rainfall forecast level k of 24h (48 h) in the future calculated in the step 102.1 c,i (preferably 1%,0.1%, etc.) corresponds to the amount of rainfall X (P) c,i )。
Step (d): considering the worst case, assuming that the rainfall in the future 24h (48 h) is concentrated in several time intervals (the worst case in the historical data), a hydrological model is adopted to calculate the rainfall X (P) with different frequencies c,i ) The flood process line formed.
And (3): according to the pre-flood-finished water level distribution and the flood process line, determining a reservoir water level process line after flood regulation, specifically comprising:
a step (e): adjusting the water level Z from different starting points in the step (b) based on the existing flood control scheduling rules i Adjusting the flood process line obtained in the step (d) to obtain a flood forecast error e i Then, it encounters rainfall X (P) of different frequency c,i ) Corresponding reservoir water level process lines and flood regulation high water levels.
And (4): determining a reservoir flood control risk quantization function according to the reservoir water level process line after flood regulation by adopting a total probability method, and specifically comprising the following steps:
step (f): repeating the steps (c) to (e) to obtain a flood forecast e i Next, a relation graph of different rainfall frequencies to the highest water level of flood regulation can be interpolated based on the relation graph to obtain the super-characteristic water level Z of the high water level of the flood regulation m The risk ratio, i.e. P { Z [ Z ] i ,X(P c )]>Z m |e i Therein XP c Representing the probability distribution of actual rainfall for a k-level rainfall forecast, Z [ ] i ,X(P c )]Is represented by Z i And adjusting the flood control high water level of the underreported rainfall flood under k-level rainfall forecast for starting water level adjustment.
Step (g): repeating the steps (b) to (f), calculating the risk rates P { Z [ Z ] of different rainfall forecast errors under all the discrete flood forecast errors and the flood forecast errors i ,X(P c )]>Z m |e i-1 }。
A step (h): calculating flood control risk P under the condition of coupling and considering rainfall forecast uncertainty and flood forecast error by adopting a total probability method ZFR (Z i ,Z m ) The concrete formula is as follows:
in the formula, P { Z [ Z ] i ,X(P c )]>Z m |Δe i Denotes flood forecast error e ∈ [ e ] i-1 ,e i ]Under the condition, the flood control risk brought by uncertainty of rainfall forecast.
Step 103.2: and determining a downstream flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution between the water receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.
Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the downstream flood protection risk provided by the present invention. As shown in fig. 4, in practical application, the downstream risk quantification method considering the uncertainty of water from interval is specifically described as follows:
in the pre-discharge stage, the downstream combined flow comes from reservoir discharge and interval forecast incoming water, and the downstream combined flow is uncertain due to uncertainty of the interval forecast, so that flood control risks can occur downstream in the pre-discharge process. The risk calculation steps are as follows:
(1) According to the continuous variance of the flood routing of the river channel, calculating the combined water quantity Q of the downstream control station down The value is the discharge quantity Q of the reservoir out And interval water Q qj To sum, i.e.
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
ε qj respectively representing interval forecast incoming water and interval forecast error.
(2) Calculating the combined water quantity Q down Exceeding the safe water flow q an Probability P (Q) down >q an ) That is, the downstream flood control risk ratio after the forecast information is utilized is as follows:
in the formula, h (epsilon) qj ) And (4) representing an interval flood forecast probability density function.
Step 103.3: and determining an additional diversion cost quantization function according to the water recession forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir.
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the additional water diversion provided by the present invention. As shown in fig. 5, in practical application, the method for quantifying the additional diversion amount is specifically described as follows:
forecasting 24h (48 h) in the future that a large-scale rainfall reservoir starts to pre-discharge, if the forecast is empty, the reservoir utilizes the returned water and the subsequent rainfall incoming water to carry out the back storage, however, if the returned water and the subsequent rainfall incoming water are small, the reservoir is difficult to store back to the water level before the pre-discharge, additional diversion needs to be added, and the calculation steps are as follows:
(1) Additional diversion quantity W imp The difference between the target water storage amount of the reservoir and the rechargeable water amount is obtained, and the target water storage amount is the reservoir pre-discharge amount W out The amount of resumable water includes the expected value of the amount of resumable water of the reservoir
At the k-th level of a certain rainfall forecast, the actual possible water coming
And the calculation formula is as follows:
(2) Expected value for calculating backwater recoverable water capacity of reservoir
The remaining amount of return water after meeting the minimum downstream water demand is the amount of recoverable water, as shown in the following equation:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the expected value of the total quantity of the water-withdrawal forecast is represented and is determined according to the water-withdrawal forecast error distribution function calculated in the step 102.1; q min The minimum discharge requirement is expressed, and the water requirements of reservoir downstream water supply, environment and the like are met; Δ t represents a calculation period; t is tui Indicating a fallback from current traffic to Q min The number of time periods of (c).
(3) Calculating the amount of water put in storage, F [ X (P), brought by possible rainfall in the future c,i )]May be calculated according to the method of step (d) above:
(4) Calculating the additional diversion cost C according to the additional water quantity imp
C imp ＝Y(W imp )
Where Y () represents a function that converts the additional diversion amount to cost, W imp Indicating the amount of additional priming.
Step 104: determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood protection risk, downstream flood protection risk, and additional diversion costs. Specifically, the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected specifically includes: and under the conditions of different water levels and different forecast information, within the pre-drainage flow range, discretely obtaining a plurality of pre-drainage flow schemes.
Step 105: and determining the pre-drainage scheduling scheme to be selected, in which the flood control benefit information meets the set conditions, as an optimal scheduling scheme.
The step 105 specifically includes:
step 105.1: and determining the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, in which the flood control benefit information meets the set constraint condition, as a target pre-leakage scheduling scheme. The setting of the constraint condition comprises: water balance constraint, reservoir capacity constraint, discharge constraint, acceptable diversion cost constraint, acceptable risk constraint for reservoir and acceptable risk constraint for downstream.
In practical applications, the above constraint conditions are specifically described as follows:
a. water balance constraint and reservoir capacity constraint:
V t+1 ＝V t +(Q in -Q out )Δt
in the formula, V t+1 Indicating the reservoir volume at time t + 1, V t Indicating the storage capacity at time t.
b. And (4) flow discharge rate constraint:
Q min ≤Q out ≤Q max
the above formula shows that the reservoir discharge needs to meet the minimum downstream discharge requirement Q min While not exceeding the discharge capacity Q of the reservoir max 。
c. Downstream acceptable risk constraints:
P(Q down >q an )≤r a
the above formula indicates that the downstream flood control risk needs to be within the design criteria, i.e. not to exceed r a 。
d. Acceptable risk constraints for reservoirs:
P ZFR (Z i ,Z m )≤r b
the upper formula shows that the high water level of reservoir flood regulation exceeds the designed flood level Z m Must not exceed r b 。
e. Acceptable diversion cost constraints:
C imp ≤C 0
the above formula shows that the maximum cost brought by the acceptable additional water diversion of the water receiving reservoir is C 0 。
Step 105.2: and determining a flood control benefit quantized value of the target pre-drainage scheduling scheme according to the flood control benefit information.
Step 105.3: determining a target pre-release scheduling scheme of which the flood control benefit quantized value meets set target conditions as an optimal scheduling scheme; the setting conditions include: the setting constraint condition and the setting target condition.
Wherein the flood control benefit quantified value comprises: a weighted sum of the reservoir flood protection risk rate, the downstream flood protection risk rate, and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the weighted sum is minimal. Or, the flood control benefit quantification value comprises: marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the marginal value is greatest.
Therefore, the target pre-drainage scheduling scheme that the flood control benefit quantization value meets the set target condition is determined as an optimal scheduling scheme, specifically: calculating the weighted sum of the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional diversion cost of each target pre-discharge scheduling scheme, and determining the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme with the minimum weighted sum as the optimal scheduling scheme; or calculating the marginal values among the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional diversion cost of each target pre-discharge scheduling scheme, and determining the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme with the largest marginal value as the optimal scheduling scheme.
As a specific implementation manner, when calculating the weighted sum, the weights corresponding to the three targets may be determined according to the preference degree of the decision maker for each target.
Step 106: and adopting the optimal scheduling scheme to perform pre-drainage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project.
Example two
In order to execute a corresponding method in the foregoing embodiments to achieve corresponding functions and technical effects, a pre-drainage scheduling system for cross-basin water network communication engineering is provided below. Fig. 6 is a block diagram of a pre-drainage scheduling system of a cross-basin water network communication project provided by the invention. As shown in fig. 6, the system includes:
the multivariate forecast information acquisition module 601 is used for acquiring multivariate forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: the method comprises the steps of flood forecasting of a water receiving reservoir, water discharge forecasting of the water receiving reservoir, flood forecasting of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center.
A multivariate prediction error probability distribution information determining module 602, configured to determine multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object.
The multi-target hedging model building module 603 is used for building a multi-target hedging model for pre-drainage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication engineering according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises: reservoir flood control risk quantization function, downstream flood control risk quantization function and additional diversion cost quantization function.
A flood control benefit information determining module 604, configured to determine flood control benefit information of a to-be-selected pre-release scheduling scheme based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood protection risk, downstream flood protection risk, and additional diversion costs.
An optimal scheduling scheme determining module 605, configured to determine the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, for which the flood control benefit information meets the set condition, as an optimal scheduling scheme.
And a pre-leakage flow scheduling module 606, configured to perform pre-leakage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project by using the optimal scheduling scheme.
EXAMPLE III
The embodiment of the invention provides electronic equipment, which comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used for storing a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to enable the electronic equipment to execute the pre-leakage scheduling method of the cross-basin water network communication engineering in the first embodiment.
Alternatively, the electronic device may be a server.
In addition, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for pre-releasing scheduling of cross-basin water network connectivity engineering in the first embodiment is implemented.
The invention provides a method, a system, equipment and a medium for pre-drainage scheduling of a cross-basin water network communication project, which can couple multiple forecast information including qualitative rainfall forecast and quantitative flood forecast and uncertainty thereof, quantify flood control risks and water diversion costs brought by uncertainty of the forecast information, balance a multi-target competitive transformation relation in a flood control benefit promotion technology based on pre-drainage scheduling, and improve flood control benefits of the water network project on the premise of not increasing the water diversion cost.
In the present specification, the embodiments are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. For the system disclosed by the embodiment, the description is relatively simple because the system corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to assist in understanding the core concepts of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A pre-drainage scheduling method for cross-basin water network communication engineering is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring multivariate forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: a flood forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a water discharge forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a flood forecasting scheme of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center;
determining multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object;
constructing a multi-target hedging model for pre-drainage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication project according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises the following steps: reservoir flood control risk quantization function, downstream flood control risk quantization function and additional diversion cost quantization function;
determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, and additional diversion costs;
determining the pre-release scheduling scheme to be selected, of which the flood control benefit information meets set conditions, as an optimal scheduling scheme;
and adopting the optimal scheduling scheme to perform pre-drainage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project.
2. The method for scheduling pre-leakage of the cross-basin water network communication project according to claim 1, wherein the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, for which the flood control benefit information meets the set conditions, is determined as an optimal scheduling scheme, and specifically comprises:
determining the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, in which the flood control benefit information meets the set constraint condition, as a target pre-leakage scheduling scheme; the setting of the constraint condition includes: water balance constraint, storage capacity constraint, discharge constraint, acceptable diversion cost constraint, acceptable risk constraint of a reservoir and acceptable risk constraint of downstream;
determining a flood control benefit quantized value of the target pre-drainage scheduling scheme according to the flood control benefit information;
determining a target pre-drainage scheduling scheme with the flood control benefit quantized value meeting set target conditions as an optimal scheduling scheme; the setting conditions include: the setting constraint condition and the setting target condition.
3. The method for scheduling pre-drainage of cross-basin water network connectivity engineering according to claim 2, wherein the flood protection benefit quantification value comprises: a weighted sum of the reservoir flood protection risk rate, the downstream flood protection risk rate, and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the weighted sum is minimal.
4. The method for scheduling pre-drainage of cross-basin water network connectivity engineering according to claim 2, wherein the flood protection benefit quantification value comprises: marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional diversion cost; the setting of the target condition includes: the marginal value is greatest.
5. The method for pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network connection project according to claim 1, wherein the building of the multi-target hedging model for the pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network connection project according to the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information specifically comprises:
determining a reservoir flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir;
determining a downstream flood control risk quantization function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the interval between the water receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;
and determining an additional diversion cost quantization function according to the water recession forecast error probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water receiving reservoir.
6. The method for pre-release scheduling of the cross-basin water network connectivity project according to claim 5, wherein a full probability risk quantification method is adopted, and a reservoir flood control risk quantification function is determined according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir.
7. The method for pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network connectivity project according to claim 1, wherein the determining the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information according to the multivariate prediction information specifically includes:
determining the flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast error probability distribution of the interval between the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object by adopting a maximum entropy model according to the flood forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir, the water-withdrawal forecast scheme of the water-receiving reservoir and the flood forecast scheme of the interval between the water-receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;
and determining the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir by adopting a P-III type distribution function according to the rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center.
8. A pre-drainage scheduling system for cross-basin water network communication engineering is characterized by comprising:
the multi-element forecast information acquisition module is used for acquiring multi-element forecast information of a cross-basin water network communication project; the multivariate forecast information comprises: a flood forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a water discharge forecasting scheme of the water receiving reservoir, a flood forecasting scheme of an interval between the water receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object and rainfall forecasting information issued by an meteorological center;
the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information determining module is used for determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information according to the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate prediction error probability distribution information comprises: flood forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir, water-recession forecast error probability distribution of the water-receiving reservoir and flood forecast error probability distribution of an interval between the water-receiving reservoir and a downstream protection object;
the multi-target hedging model building module is used for building a multi-target hedging model for pre-leakage scheduling of the cross-basin water network communication engineering according to the multi-element forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-target hedging model comprises the following steps: reservoir flood control risk quantization function, downstream flood control risk quantization function and additional diversion cost quantization function;
the flood control benefit information determining module is used for determining flood control benefit information of a to-be-selected pre-release scheduling scheme based on the multi-target hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, and additional diversion costs;
the optimal scheduling scheme determining module is used for determining the pre-leakage scheduling scheme to be selected, of which the flood control benefit information meets the set conditions, as the optimal scheduling scheme;
and the pre-leakage flow scheduling module is used for performing pre-leakage flow scheduling on the cross-basin water network communication project by adopting the optimal scheduling scheme.
9. An electronic device, comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used for storing a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to make the electronic device execute the pre-leakage scheduling method of the cross-basin water network connectivity engineering according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, which stores a computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the pre-leakage scheduling method for cross-basin water network connectivity engineering according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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